[音乐] [掌声] >> 那掌声可不算。那掌声可不算热烈。重新来。>> [掌声与欢呼声] >> 这就好多了。谢谢。是的，我们会让这场对话变得有意思。>> [笑声] >> 这场会议之后，你打算要多少句金句？多少句？>> [哼声] >> 呃，我不知道。我的意思是，5句。好吧。>> [笑声] >> 那么，呃，大家下午好。很高兴在这里见到大家。

呃，这一周在达沃斯非常精彩。嗯，希望大家都看到我们正在这里展开对话。希望大家都认同。有些[哼声]对话我们可能意见不一。有许多对话我们可能意见一致。但通过这些对话，以及我认为今天早些时候达成和平协议这一成果，嗯，世界经济论坛就是来这里开展这些对话、增进理解，并且达成解决方案的。

所以，嗯，呃，这是我们是谁以及我们是什么的重要组成部分，而我非常高兴，呃，埃隆·马斯克能来到这里。嗯，他从加利福尼亚远道而来，在这里与大家见面。所以，呃，谢谢你，埃隆。呃，不客气。>> [掌声] >> 嗯，我是说，我听说了，我听说了，呃，听说了这个、这个、这个和平峰会的组建。我当时就想，那是，呃，那是 p i e c 吗？

呃 >> [笑声] >> 你知道，一小块格陵兰，一小块委内瑞拉。[笑声] 我们有了一个。我们想要的是和平。>> [笑声] >> 好吧，正如我所说，我是一个相当自豪的，呃，贝莱德上市以来的首席执行官。嗯，呃，贝莱德为股东带来的复合回报率是21%。呃，自从埃隆推动 Tesla 上市以来，他的复合回报率是43%。

这只是我给大家做的又一个宣传，尤其是给欧洲人。这就是为什么应该有更多公民投资增长、投资自己的国家。想象一下，如果 Tesla 上市时有很多养老基金跟着埃隆投资，那么所有与埃隆并肩投资、投向增长的养老基金会获得多少回报。所以，嗯，这是极其出色的回报。

很少有公司——嗯，我认为如今没有其他规模与 Tesla 一样大的公司拥有这样的复合回报率。所以，恭喜。>> 呃，谢谢。>> 很好的衡量标准。嗯，我们在 Tesla 有一支不可思议的团队，这就是原因。所以，我想深入探讨一下，呃，实际的、这个技术中有意义的组成部分，以及各种可能性。

嗯，我想谈谈人工智能和机器人技术、能源、太空，以及最终归结到工程、工程纪律、规模和执行力的进展。嗯，很少有人——如果不是根本没有人的话——拥有直面这些问题的经验和坚韧。不只是想法，还有横跨如此多不同技术的执行，埃隆，这就是为什么我认为，我认为我们在达沃斯这里进行这场对话很重要。

那么，你[清嗓子]目前同时在建设人工智能和机器人技术、太空以及能源。当你审视这些工作时，从工程角度来看，它们有什么共同之处？呃，嗯，它们都是非常困难的技术挑战。嗯，但我旗下公司的，呃，总体目标是最大化文明的未来。就像，基本上是最大化文明拥有美好未来的概率。

嗯，以及，呃，让意识[清嗓子]扩展到地球之外。所以，以 SpaceX 为例，SpaceX 的宗旨就是推动火箭技术进步，直至我们能够把生命和意识扩展到地球之外，呃，扩展到月球、火星，最终扩展到其他恒星系统。而且，呃，我知道，我认为我们应该始终把意识，呃，把我们所知的生命视为岌岌可危且脆弱的。

嗯，因为据我所知，我们，我们，我们不知道其他任何地方是否有生命。你知道，经常有人问我，嗯，我们中间有外星人吗？我会说我就是一个，但——或者你来自未来。他们不相信我。好吧。嗯，所以，呃，但我，我，我 >> [清嗓子] >> 我认为，如果有人会知道我们中间是否有外星人，那个人就会是我。

嗯，而且，呃，我们在上面有9,000颗卫星，却从来没有一次需要绕开一艘、一艘外星飞船。所以，我就想，我不知道。归根结底，我认为我们需要假设生命和意识极其罕见，而且可能只有我们。

如果是这样，那么我们就需要尽一切可能来，来确保这个、这个意识之光能，光，意识之光不会熄灭，因为实际上我们，我们，我们——在我看来，我脑海中的画面是在一片广袤的黑暗中有一支、一支小小的蜡烛，一支很容易熄灭的意识小蜡烛。

嗯，这就是为什么让生命成为多行星生命很重要，呃，这样一来，如果地球上发生自然灾害或人为灾害，意识仍能延续。这就是 SpaceX 的目的。嗯，呃，Te- Tesla 显然关乎，呃，可持续技术，而，呃，而且，而且到了现在，我们算是给自己的使命加入了可持续繁荣。所以，凭借，呃，机器人技术和人工智能，嗯，这、这确实是通往全民富足的道路。

比如说，你知道，人们经常谈论，呃，解决全球贫困，或者从根本上说，我们如何让，让每个人都拥有非常高的生活水平。我，我认为实现这一点的唯一途径是人工智能和机器人技术。嗯，这、这并不意味着它，呃，没有问题。我的意思是，这个，我们需要非常谨慎地对待人工智能。我们需要非常谨慎地对待机器人技术。我们不希望发现自己身处一部詹姆斯·卡梅隆的电影里。呃，你知道，《终结者》。

>> [笑声] >> 是、是，它是，是很棒、很棒的电影。我喜欢他的电影，但、但我们显然不想身处《终结者》之中。嗯，但、但是，如果拥有，嗯，无处不在且基本免费或接近免费的人工智能，以及无处不在的机器人技术，呃，那么全球经济就会出现一场、一场爆——一场扩张，一场真正前所未有的全球经济扩张。埃隆，这种扩张能够广泛惠及各方，还是只会局限于狭窄范围？

这种局面如何才能形成？它如何能够扩大全球经济？是的，这个，我的意思是，我的意思是，思考它的方式是，如果你拥有大量人形机器人，嗯，那么经济产出就等于每个机器人的平均生产率乘以机器人数量。对吧。

嗯，而、而且事实上，我的预测是，在未来的、未来的良性情景下，我们会——机器人实际上会制造出如此多的机器人和人工智能，以至于它们实际上会满足所有人类需求。意思是到某个时候，你甚至想不出还能要求机器人为你做什么。就像、就像，会有如此丰富的商品和服务，因为[清嗓子]我的预测是，机器人会、机器人会比人更多。

所以，但是在那种情境下，你又如何让人类拥有目标呢？>> 是的，我是说，你知道，没有什么是完美的，你知道，但是 >> [笑声] >> 嗯，但是，但是，我是说，我是说，这确实是一个必要的，嗯……就像你不能两者兼得。你不可能既有必须完成的工作，呃，嗯，又让所有人都享有惊人的富足。

嗯，因为如果这是必须完成的工作，那么，那么，那么你，而且只有一些人能做，那你就，你就，你，你不可能让所有人都富足。>> 那它就是狭隘的。>> 是狭隘的，没错。所以，嗯，但是如果你，如果你拥有数十亿个人形机器人，我认为将会，嗯，我认为，我认为地球上的每个人都会有一个，而且都会想要一个。

嗯，因为，呃，谁会不想要一个机器人来，你知道，嗯，假设它非常安全，照看你的孩子，照顾你的宠物。呃，如果你有年迈的父母，呃，我的很多朋友都说他们有年迈的父母，而照顾他们非常非常困难。>> 是的，这很昂贵，而且，而且这很昂贵，并且根本没有足够的人来照顾这些……没有足够的年轻人来照顾老年人。

>> 对。嗯，所以如果你，如果他们，嗯，如果你，如果你有一个能够照顾和，而且保护年迈父母的机器人，我认为那会很棒。那会是一件拥有起来很了不起的东西。嗯，而且，而且我认为我们会拥有这些东西。所以，我是说，总体而言，我，我对未来非常乐观。我认为我们正走向一个极其富足的未来，呃，这非常酷。

嗯，而且，呃，而且，而且绝对 >> [清嗓子] >> 我们正处于历史上最有趣的时代。嗯，我认为历史上没有比这更、更有趣的时代了。在这段新历史中，我们，你和我，能逆转衰老吗？还是，还是，还是我们会看到它实现？呃，你知道，我没有，我没有在衰老这件事上投入太多时间。我，我，我确实认为这是一个非常容易解决的问题。

就像，就像你可以做到。我认为，当，当，当，当我们找到……我们弄清楚是什么导致衰老时，我认为我们会发现它显而易见得令人难以置信。不，这不是什么微妙的事情。嗯，我之所以说这不是什么微妙的事情，是因为你身体里的所有细胞，你知道，除了某些以外，几乎都以相同的速度衰老。我，我这辈子从来没见过一个人的左臂衰老而右臂年轻。嗯，那么这是为什么？

这、这、这意味着一定存在一个时钟，一个同步时钟，它让你体内的35万亿个细胞保持同步。嗯，而且，呃，呃，你知道，顺便说一句，死亡确实有一些好处。

>> [笑声] >> 就像，我们实际上没有更长的寿命是有原因的，呃，因为如果你，如果你有，如果人们真的活非常非常久，我认为社会会有某种僵化的风险，就是事情会有点被锁死。嗯，而且，呃，是的，你……它可能会变得，嗯，令人窒息，就是没有，呃，缺乏，缺乏活力。嗯，但是，但是那，那，那就是这样。

我认为我们会找到延长寿命的办法，并且，嗯，甚至可能逆转衰老吗？我认为这极有可能。我很期待。是的。那么，嗯，在你所谈论的未来中，AI 模型、自动机器、火箭，都依赖算力的大幅增长、能源的大幅增长、昂贵的能源以及制造规模。实现这一切的瓶颈是什么？

然后再说一次，面对所有那些支出，同样，我们怎样才能确保它覆盖广泛，而不是狭窄？嗯 >> [清嗓子] >> 我、我只是觉得，自然而然的情况是，它会非常广泛，因为人工智能公司会尽可能争取更多客户。而人工智能的成本会变得——已经非常低了，而且每年都在暴跌。我的意思是，人工智能的成本几乎每个月都在发生有意义的变化。

现在到处都有开放，有开放模型。>> 是的。是的，非常，有开放模型。嗯，开放模型只不过落后，也许比私有的、那种封闭模型落后1年。嗯，所以，所以我，我认为AI公司会寻求尽可能多的客户，这意味着它们会寻求，它们会向全世界提供AI。

>> 但达到那一步的成本，算力、芯片，嗯，晶圆厂，嗯，为其供电，在我看来，什么——什么是那些，你知道，那些都是巨大的瓶—— >> 限制因素。对，我认为人工智能部署的限制因素从根本上说是电力。就是这样。[清嗓子] 是能源。对，对。

嗯，我的意思是，我们看到人工智能芯片的生产速度正呈指数级增长，但投入运行的发电量每年只增长，呃，3%、4%。行为。对。很明显，我们——我们——我们——我们很快，也许甚至就在今年晚些时候，就会生产出多到无法通电运行的芯片。中——中国除外。中国——中国——中国的电力增长非常惊人。就在我们说话的时候，他们正在建设100吉瓦的核电。

呃，实际上太阳能才是中国规模最大的东西。所以我认为，中国的太阳能产能是每年1,500吉瓦，嗯，而且他们每年部署超过，呃，1,000吉瓦的太阳能。嗯，现在，你知道，要换算成连续的太阳能负载，就把它大致除以——我不知道——四或五。呃，就算——算它大约是250吉瓦的稳态功率，嗯，与电池搭配。嗯，这是一个非常大的数字。

这是美国平均用电功率的一半。对。所以美国——美国的平均用电功率是500吉瓦。呃，中国仅凭太阳能，就像仅凭——凭——凭太阳能，像那样就能提供稳态功率，呃，再加上电池，仅凭太阳能每年就能达到美国电力输出的一半。太阳能到目前为止是——是——是最大的能源来源。

嗯，而且实际上，当你看向地球之外，甚至——甚至——甚至就在地球上，但当然在地球之外，呃，太阳四舍五入后占全部能源的100%。这是需要考虑的一件重要事情。嗯，所以太阳占太阳系质量的99. 8%。木星大约占0. 1%，其他一切都是杂项。

嗯，现在，即使你要在——在热核反应堆里，呃，燃烧木星，呃，太阳——太阳产生的能量仍会四舍五入为100%，因为木星只占0. 1%。如果你把——把另外三颗木星传送进我们的太阳系，再燃烧另外三颗木星以及太阳系里的其他一切，太阳的能量仍会四舍五入为100%。所以这一切真正都关乎太阳。

嗯，而那——那就是为什么，呃，我们将在几年内通过SpaceX做的事情之一，是发射，嗯，太阳能供电的人工智能卫星。>> 对。嗯，因为太空确实是巨大能量的来源，而且你不需要占用地球上的任何空间。呃，太空中有如此多的空间。而且你可以扩展到，呃，极其巨大的——呃，我的意思是，你可以——你可以扩展到，我——我认为最终每年数百——数百太瓦。

但我们——你和我以前有过这些谈话，不过你何不告诉观众，美国需要怎样做，以及需要怎样的地理范围，才能拥有那种足以让美国电气化的太阳能场？而且——而且接着让我问一个问题：我们为什么没有这样做？

对，所以我的意思是，我——我想，粗略的理解方式是，嗯，100英里乘100英里，或者说，呃，160公里乘160公里的[清嗓子]太阳能设施，就足以为整个美国供电。所以，你——100——100英里——英里乘100英里的区域是——是，我的意思是，你基本上可以取犹他州、内华达州——内华达州、新墨西哥州的一个小角落。

>> [清嗓子] >> 显然不会想把它全放在一个地方，但我是说，你可以——它——它——它是一个——它只占美国国土面积非常小的比例，却能生产美国使用的全部电力。嗯，实际上同样的情况——我是说，对——对欧洲也是如此。你——你可以取一小部分——你可以取，比如西班牙和西西里岛相对无人居住的地区，生产欧洲所需的全部电力。

那么，你为什么认为这里和美国没有出现朝这个方向发展的行动？呃，嗯，有——有 >> 就像中国那样。嗯，不幸的是，在——在美国，太阳能的——的——的关税壁垒极高 >> [清嗓子] >> 嗯，这人为地把部署太阳能的经济成本抬得如此之高，因为中国制造了几乎所有太阳能产品。

嗯，而且——而且税收——欧洲或美国要怎样才能以商业方式建成它？如果规模是那样。对，我——我——我认为——我认为，呃，嗯，我可以告诉你我们在SpaceX和Tesla将要做——正在做的事情，那就是我们——我们正在建设，嗯，大规模太阳能。对。所以，SpaceX和Tesla的团队都在分别努力，在美国把太阳能制造规模提高到每年100吉瓦。呃，制造出来的太阳能电力。

而且，嗯，那可能还需要我们大约3年左右。但那——那——这些都是相当大的数字。嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，我——我会鼓励其他人也这样做——也这样做。嗯，我们显然无法控制，你知道，你们美国的，呃，关税政策。

呃，但对于——对于——对于——对于其他国家，呃，我会建议，你知道，中国制造的太阳能电池成本低得令人难以置信，而且我认为，呃，开展大规模太阳能建设是值得的。那么，>> [清嗓子] >> 我知道你似乎——你将会发布几个关于机器人技术及其能力的重大消息。我的意思是，当——当我去工厂时，你给我看过那些机器人。对。

嗯，你谈到了数十亿台机器人，但它们能多快、多快地部署到制造环境中？它们能多快得到使用、发挥作用，并且，呃，创造出你所谈到的那种富足？ >> [清嗓子并咳嗽] >> 嗯，人形机器人技术将会进步得非常快。我认为，呃，我们，我们，我们确实已经有一些 Tesla Optimus 机器人在工厂里执行简单任务。

嗯，我们预计，大概今年晚些时候，到今年年底，我认为它们将会执行，嗯，更、更复杂的任务。嗯，而且，而且，但仍然部署在工业环境中。 >> [清嗓子] >> 而且，呃，大概明年某个时候，我会说，到、到明年年底，我、我认为，呃，我们会向公众销售人形机器人。

嗯，但那是在我们确信它的可靠性非常高、安全性非常高，嗯，而且功能范围，呃，也、也、也非常广的时候。基本上，你可以让它做任何你想让它做的事。我们已经在 Tesla 汽车上看到[清嗓子]你们正在进行的软件变化了。那么现在是怎样，每个季度进行一次软件变更，升级汽车内机器人的能力吗？

呃，是的，Tesla 全自动驾驶软件，我们，我们有时每周更新一次。嗯，而且，嗯，最近[清嗓子]一些保险公司表示，当、当使用 Tesla 全自动驾驶时，它实际上非常安全，呃，Tesla 全自动驾驶安全到，呃，它们、它们会向在车内使用 Tesla 全自动驾驶的客户提供半价保险。而且保险公司可以对此进行监测。

它们能吗？那么，这是协议的一部分吗？ >> 是的。嗯，但我、我认为，自动驾驶[清嗓子]汽车在现阶段本质上已经是一个解决了的问题。对。嗯，而 Tes-Tesla 已经在几个城市推出了某种机器人出租车服务，对。到今年年底，它会，呃，在美国境内非常、非常普及。然后我们、我们希望在欧洲获得有监督的全自动驾驶批准，希望是下个月。真的这么快？

是的，然后，呃，[清嗓子]中国可能也是类似的时间、时间，希望如此。我想转向太空，因为从历史上看，太空非常资本密集。它、它历来是由政府来做的。我认为 SpaceX 改变了整个模式。嗯，但我们看到它的规模扩张很慢、很慢，而现在我们开始看到你们所做的事情以及其他事情正在加速。

嗯，请跟我们谈谈其中的原因，你知道，自动化和 AI 如何改变建设，呃，为我们做准备以及在太空中运营的经济性。呃，当然。嗯 >> [清嗓子] >> 嗯，SpaceX 希望今年实现的关键突破，也就是那个、那个重大突破，是完全可重复使用。

>> [清嗓子] >> 嗯，所以，从来没有人实现过火箭的完全可重复使用，而这对于进入太空的成本非常重要。嗯，我们已经通过让助推级着陆，实现了猎鹰 9 号的部分可重复使用。我们已经、我们现在已经让助推级着陆超过 500 次。嗯，但，呃，我们、我们不能，我们必须，呃，丢弃上面级。猎鹰 9 号的上面级所以会在再入时烧毁。

所以，而且、而且那、那个的成本相当于一架小型到中型喷气式飞机。所以，嗯，但对于、对于星舰，它是一枚、一枚巨型火箭，它是、它是有史以来最大的飞行机器。那就是你们打算用来前往火星的火箭，对吧？是的，火星和月球，嗯，也用于，呃，大批量卫星之类的任务。

所以，星舰，嗯，希望今年我们应该能证明星舰可以完全重复使用，这将是，嗯，一项影响深远的发明，呃，因为，呃，当你实现完全可重复使用时，进入太空的成本将降至原来的 1/100。嗯，对。这、这与可重复使用飞机和不可重复使用飞机之间，你会预期看到的那种经济差异相同。

比如，如果每次飞行后都必须扔掉飞机，那趟飞行就会非常昂贵。嗯，但如果你只需要补充燃料，呃，那成本就是燃料费。所以，这确实是，呃，那项、那项根本性突破，它让进入太空的成本，呃，我们认为，呃，低于飞机货运的成本。呃，所以，你知道，很容易就能低于、低于每磅100美元这种水平。

嗯，所以它、它、它、它使得，呃，>> [清嗓并咳嗽] >> 将大型卫星送入、送入太空变得非常低、非常非常便宜。嗯，然后当你在太空中使用太阳能时，你、你会获得，呃，5倍的效能，甚至可能比地面太阳能高得更多，因为那里、那里总是阳光充足，而且 >> 寒冷。它，是的，那里、那里、那里总是，嗯，那里总是阳光充足，所以你、你、你没有昼夜循环，也没有季节性或天气。

>> 嗯，而且在太空中你能获得大约，呃，30%更多的功率，呃，因为，呃，没有大气对功率的衰减。对。净效果是太阳能效能为5倍，呃，任何一块给定的太阳能电池板在太空中产生的能量都会是，呃，在地面上的5倍。在这样做之后，再把那些电力送回地球，有任何能力实现吗？

有任何办法能做到吗，还是、还是你只是获取那些电力，并把它用于各种需求，比如在太空中建造，嗯，呃，AI数据中心？我、我认为，我认为情况是，在太空中建造，呃，太阳能供电的AI数据中心，嗯，是显而易见的选择，因为正如你提到的，太空中也、也非常寒冷。如果你、如果你、如果你处在阴影里，呃，那么太空中非常寒冷。是3°开尔文。

所以，你只需要，你有朝向太阳的太阳能电池板，然后，呃，一个，呃，散热器，它就像指、就像指向背离太阳的方向。嗯，所以它没有阳光入射，然后它就、然后它就只是在冷却。这是一套非常高效的冷却系统。所以净效果是，部署AI成本最低的地方将是太空，而且那、而且那会在2年内成为现实，也许是3年，最迟3年。哇。

>> [清嗓] >> 那么展望10年或20年后，你会如何、你会怎样描述AI或太空技术取得成功的情景？你认为它会在哪里？也就是说，你能不能，你对未来3年会发生什么更有把握，还是、还是5年或10年？

我不知道10年后会、会发生什么，但按照AI进步的速度，我认为我们 >> [清嗓] >> 我们、我们可能会在今年年底拥有比任何人都聪明的AI，而且我会说最迟不超过明年。哇。然后可能到2030年或2031年，引号，5年后，AI将比 [清嗓] 全人类的集体智慧更聪明。

我们只剩几分钟了，但我想、我想暂时让你显得更有人情味一些。所以没有人猜测你会 >> 拿和平开玩笑。对。对。我想要 >> [笑声] >> 我的意思是，我会这样来提出这个问题：你是21世纪最成功的企业家、实业家，也许不止于此。我想要，所以我真的想弄明白这个，你知道，是什么激励了你？谁激励了你？你的好奇心以什么为根基？

而且、而且重要的是，那个、那个是什么，你的一生和职业生涯中是否曾在某个时刻出现过“啊哈”时刻、顿悟？嗯，呃，我的意思是，小时候我读了很多科幻、科幻奇幻书籍。是的，我们谈过这个。还有漫画书。而且我一直喜欢技术。我没想到自己今天会处在这个位置。似乎极其难以置信。

不过是的，我受到有关未来、有关科幻小说的书籍的启发，而且、而且我想，我希望科幻小说不要永远只是虚构，而是在某个时候把科幻变成科学事实。嗯，而且你知道，我们希望真的、真切地拥有类似星际舰队和《星、星际迷航》里的东西。

比如在那里、在那里，我们真的拥有巨型宇宙飞船穿越太空，前往其他行星，前往其他恒星系统，去往我们从未去过的地方。>> 被传送上去，再回到纽约。>> [笑声] >> 你知道，我、我希望直接被传送回纽约，而不是坐飞机。是的。嗯，说到《星际迷航》。

不，我想我的、我的核心，也就是我所谓的好奇心哲、哲学，是我、我想理解生命的意义。你知道，物理学的标准模型，物理学的标准模型对于生命的开端、存在的开端以及宇宙的终结所作的描述是否正确。有哪些问题是我们不知道自己应该去问的？而AI会帮助我们处理这些事情。

所以我只是想弄明白，我们是怎么来到这里的？发生了什么？什么是真实的？有外星人吗？也许有。而如果我们拥有、如果我们拥有前往其他恒星系统的宇宙飞船，我们也许会发现、也许会遇到外星人，和/或我们也许会发现许多早已消亡的外星文明。但我、我只是、我只是、我只是想知道发生了什么。我对这个、这个宇宙感到好奇，而，嗯，这就是我的哲学。

你觉得自己有生之年会去火星吗？会，我的意思是，我会说，比如我，你知道，我、我，那里，那是一个漫长的投入。有人问过我，难道不是单程3年吗？是6个月。6个月，就这么久？是的，6个月，但行星每、每2年才会排列到合适的位置。好。所以，嗯，[清嗓] 是的，有人问过我几次，比如我是否想，你知道，死在火星上，我会说想，但别死于撞击。

>> [笑声] >> 这是个好、这是个好答案。好了，我们没时间了。我希望大家都喜欢这场对话。嗯，围绕埃隆·马斯克有太多传言。我可以告诉你们，他是一位很好的朋友，我不断从他那里学到很多东西。嗯，而且他的、他所做的事情完全激励了我。他这个人一直激励着我，他对未来的愿景也完全激励了我。而且我认为那并不是一个多么糟糕的未来，我也认同他的乐观态度。

所以，埃隆，谢谢你。最后还有什么话吗？嗯，嗯，好吧，我想总体而言，我想我最后想说的是，我鼓励每个人都对未来保持乐观和兴奋。很好。嗯，而且、而且、而且总体而言，我认为就生活质量来说，实际上宁可偏向做一个错误的乐观主义者，也不要做一个正确的悲观主义者。就以这句话作结 >> [掌声与欢呼声] [掌声] [音乐]

[music] [applause] >> That was not a That was not a large applause. Start again. >> [applause and cheering] >> That's better. Thank you. Yeah, we're going to make this interesting. >> [laughter] >> How many How many quotes are you going to want that are going to be after this session? >> [snorts] >> Uh I don't know. I mean five. Okay. >> [laughter] >> So, uh good afternoon, everybody. It's great to see everybody here.

Uh it's been an amazing week here in Davos. Um hopefully everybody saw that we are having conversations here. Hopefully everybody agrees. There [snorts] are some conversations that we may disagree. There's many conversations we may have agreed. But through those conversations and I think today's result with a peace agreement earlier today um the World Economic Forum is here to have those conversations, to have understandings, and also resolution.

So, um uh it's an important component of who we and what we are, and I'm thrilled uh to have Elon Musk here. Um He came all the way from California to be here to see all of you. So, uh thank you, Elon. Uh you're most welcome. >> [applause] >> Um I mean, I heard I heard about uh heard about the formation of the the the peace summit. And I was like, is that uh is that p i e c?

Uh >> [laughter] >> you know, little piece of Greenland, a little piece of Venezuela. [laughter] We got one. What we want is peace. >> [laughter] >> Okay, I want to uh as I said, I'm a pretty proud uh a CEO of BlackRock since we went public. Um uh the compounding return of BlackRock to our shareholders was 21%. Uh since Elon took Tesla uh public, his compounded return is 43%.

This is I just another advertisement for everybody, especially for Europeans. This is why more citizens should be investing with growth, investing with your countries. Imagine if a lot of pension funds invested with Elon if when Tesla went public, and how much return with the all the pension funds that invested side by side with Elon and the growth. So, um a spectacular return.

There's very few companies Well, I don't think there's any other company as large as Tesla today that has that compounded return. So, congratulations. >> Uh thank you. >> good measurement. Well, we have an incredible team at Tesla, and that's the reason. So, I want to get into uh the dirt the the meaningful component about technology, the possibilities.

Um I want to talk about AI and robotics, energy, space, and the progress ultimately coming down to engineering, engineering discipline, scale, execution. Um and few few people, if not anyone, has the experience and the fortitude to confront these issues head-on. Not just the ideas, but the execution across so many different technologies, Elon, and that's why I thought I thought it was important for us to have this dialogue here uh in Davos.

So, you're [clears throat] presently building on AI and robotics, on space, on energy, all at the same time. When you look across those efforts, what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint? Uh well, they're all very difficult technology challenges. Um but the uh the overall goal of my companies is to maximize the future of civilization. Like, basically maximize the probability that civilization has a great future.

Um and uh to [clears throat] expand consciousness beyond Earth. So, if you take SpaceX, for example, that's SpaceX is about advancing rocket technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond Earth, uh to the moon, to Mars, eventually to other star systems. And uh I know I think we should always view consciousness uh life as we know it as as precarious and delicate.

Um because to the best of my knowledge, we we we don't know if life anywhere else. You know, I'm often asked, um are there aliens among us? And I'll say that I am one, but Or you're from the future. They don't believe me. Okay. Um so, uh but I I I >> [clears throat] >> I think if anyone would know if there were aliens among us, it would be me.

Um and uh we we have 9,000 satellites up there, and not once have we had to maneuver around an an alien spaceship. So, I'm like, I don't know. It's Bottom line is I think we need to assume that life and consciousness is extremely rare, and it might only be us.

And if that's the case, then we need to do everything possible to to ensure that the the light of can the light the light of consciousness is not extinguished, because we're effectively we're we're we're The way I view it is the image in my mind is of a a tiny candle in a vast darkness, tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out.

Um and that's why it's important to make life multi-planetary uh such that if there is a natural disaster or a man-made disaster on Earth, that consciousness continues. That's the purpose of SpaceX. Um Uh Te- Tesla is obviously about uh sustainable technology, and uh and and also at this point we've we've sort of added to our mission sustainable abundance. So, with uh robotics and AI, um th- this this is really the path to abundance for all.

If you say, you know, people often talk about uh solving global poverty, or essentially how how do we make give everyone a very high standard of living. I I think the only way to do this is AI and robotics. Um, which which doesn't mean that it is uh without its issues. I mean, this we need to be very careful with AI. We need to be very careful with robotics. We don't want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie. Uh you know, Terminator.

>> [laughter] >> Is is it goes is great great movies. I love his movies, but but we don't want to be in Terminator, obviously. Um, but but we if you have um ubiquitous AI that is essentially free or close to it and ubiquitous robotics, uh then you will have an an ex- an explosion in the in the global economy, an expansion in the global economy that is truly beyond all precedent. Elon, can that expansion be broad or is it narrow?

And how can that be created? How can it broaden the global economy? Yeah, it's I mean I mean the way to think of it is that if you have a large number of humanoid robots, um the economic output is the average productivity per robot times the number of robots. Right.

Um and and actually my prediction is in the in the benign scenario of the future that we will the robots will actually make so many robots and AI that they will actually saturate all human needs. Meaning you won't be able to even think of something to ask the robot for at a certain point. Like like the they will be such an abundance of goods and services because the [clears throat] my prediction is they'll be they'll be more robots than people.

So But how do you then have human purpose in that scenario? >> Yeah, I mean you know, there was nothing's perfect, you know, but >> [laughter] >> um but but the I mean I mean it is it it is a a necessary um Like you can't have both. You can't have work that has to be done uh um and uh amazing abundance for all.

Um because if it's if it's work that has to be done, then then then you and and only some people can do it, then you then you you you can't have abundance at all. >> Then it's narrow. >> It's narrow, exactly. So um but if you if you have billions of humanoid robots, I think there will be um the I think I think everyone on Earth is going to have one and going to want one.

Um, because uh you're who wouldn't want a robot to, you know, um assuming it's very safe, watch over your kids, take care of your pet. Uh if you have elderly parents, uh a lot of friends of mine have said they have elderly parents and it's it's very difficult to take care of them. >> Yeah, it's expensive and and it's expensive and there just aren't enough people to take care of the there aren't enough young people to take care of the old people.

>> Right. Um so if you if they um if you if you had a robot that could take care of and and protect an and elderly parents, I think that would be great. That would be an amazing thing to have. Um and and that I think we will have those things. So I mean overall I'm I'm very optimistic about the future. I think we're headed for a future of amazing abundance, uh which is very cool.

Um and uh and and definitely >> [clears throat] >> we are in the most interesting time in history. Um I think there's no more no more interesting time in history. And can we can you and I reverse aging in this new history or or or are we going to see it? Uh you know, I haven't I haven't put much time into uh the aging stuff. I I I do think it is a very solvable problem.

Like like you can do I think when when when when we find we figure out what causes aging, I think we'll find it's incredibly obvious. No, it's not a subtle thing. Um the reason I say it's not a subtle thing is because all the cells in your body you know, with some pretty much age at the same rate. I I've never seen someone with with an old left arm and a young right arm, ever in my life. Um so why is that?

It it it that means that there must be a clock, a synchronizing clock that is synchronizing across 35 trillion cells in your body. Um and uh uh you know, the there is some benefit to death, by the way.

>> [laughter] >> It's like there's there's a reason why we don't actually have a longer lifespan uh because if you if you have if you people do live for a very very long time, I think there's some risk of an ossification of society, of of things just getting kind of locked in place. Um and uh yeah, you're it it just may become um stultifying, just not uh lack lack vibrancy. Um but but that's that's that's it.

Do I think we'll figure out ways to extend life and um and maybe even reverse aging? I think that's highly likely. I'm looking forward to that. Yeah. So um in the future that you talk about, the AI models, autonomous machines, rockets, depends on massive increases of compute, massive increases in energy, expensive energy, manufacturing scale. What are the bottlenecks to to get there?

And then once again, with all that expenditures, again, how can we make sure that it's broadened, not narrow? Um >> [clears throat] >> I I just think the natural thing is it's going to be very broad because AI companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can. And the cost of AI will get is already very low and it's is plummeting every year. I mean, you almost the cost of AI is almost meaningfully changing on a month-to-month basis.

There's open there's open models now everywhere. >> Yeah. Yes, very there's open models. Um the open models only lack the maybe a year behind the the private the sort of closed models. Um so so I I think the the AI companies will seek as as many customers as possible, which means they'll seek they'll provide AI to the world.

>> But the cost of getting to there, the compute, the chips, um the fab, um the powering, that to me what what are the what are the you know, those are huge bottle >> The limiting factor. Yeah, I think the limiting factor for um AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power. It's just right. [clears throat] It's energy. Yeah, yeah.

Um I mean, we're we're seeing the the rate of AI chip production increase exponentially, but the rate of electricity being brought online is uh 3% 4% a year. Acts. Yeah. It's clear that we're we're we're we're very soon, maybe even later this year, we'll be producing more chips than we can turn on. Ex- except for China. China China's China's growth in electricity is is tremendous. They're building 100 gigawatts of nuclear as we speak.

Uh actually solar is the biggest thing in China. So China's I believe China's production capacity on solar is 1,500 gigawatts a year um and they're deploying over uh 1,000 gigawatts a year of of solar. Um Now, you know, for continuous solar load, you divide that by roughly I don't know, four or five. Uh call call it that's around uh 250 gigawatts of steady state power um paired with batteries. Um and that's a very big number.

That's half of the average power usage in the US. Right. So US US power uh usage on average is is 500 gigawatts. Uh China just in solar just like just in in in solar like that can provide steady state power uh and batteries can do half of the US electricity output per year just with solar. Solar is by far it the the the biggest source of of of energy.

Um and actually when you look beyond or even even even on Earth, but certainly beyond Earth, uh the the sun rounds up to 100% of all energy. This is an important thing to consider. Um so the the sun is 99. 8% of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter is about 0. 1% and everything else is miscellaneous.

Um now even if you were to uh burn Jupiter in a in a thermonuclear reactor, uh the sun the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100% cuz Jupiter's only 0. 1%. If you teleported teleported three more Jupiters into our solar system, the sun the and and burn three more Jupiters and everything else in the solar system, the sun's energy would still round up to 100%. So it's really all about the sun.

Um and that's that's why uh one of the things we'll be doing with SpaceX uh in a within a few years is launching um solar powered AI satellites. >> Right. Um because the space is really the source of immense power and then you don't need to take up any room on Earth. Uh there's so much room in space. And you can scale to uh enormous uh I mean you can you can scale to I I think ultimately hundreds hundreds of terawatts a year.

But we you and I have had these conversations before, but why don't you tell the audience what would it take for the United States and what type of geography would it take to have that solar field to electrify the United States? And And then let me ask a question, why aren't we doing it?

Yeah, so I mean I I guess rough way to think about it is um 100 mi by 100 mi or quote uh 160 km by 160 km of [clears throat] solar is enough to power the entire United States. So, you 100 100 mi mi by 100 mi area is is I mean that you can take the basically a small corner of Utah Nevada Nevada, New Mexico.

>> [clears throat] >> Obviously wouldn't want it all in one place, but I'm you can it's it's it's a it is a very small percentage of the area of of the US to generate all of the electricity that the US uses. Um and the same is true actually I mean for for Europe. You you could take a small part You could take uh uh relatively unpopulated areas of say Spain and Sicily and generate all of the electricity power that Europe needs.

So, why don't you think that there's a movement towards that here and in the United States? Uh well, there there is >> As it is in China. Well, unfortunately in in the US the the the tariff barriers for solar are are extremely high >> [clears throat] >> um and that makes the economics of deploying solar uh so artificially high because China makes almost all the solar.

Um and and the tax that What would it take for Europe or the US to build it commercially? If it's that scale. Yeah, I I I think I think uh Well, I can tell you what what we're going to do in SpaceX and Tesla was is we're we're building up um large-scale solar. Right. So, the the SpaceX and Tesla teams both separately are working to build to 100 gigawatts a year of solar power in the US. Uh of manufactured solar power.

And um that'll probably take us another about 3 years, something. But that's that's These are pretty big numbers. Um and um you know, I I'd encourage others to do the same to do the same. Um We obviously don't control the you know, your US uh tariff policy.

Uh but for for for for other countries uh I would recommend you know, that this China makes solar cells that are incredibly low cost and I think uh it would be worth uh doing large-scale solar. So, >> [clears throat] >> I know you are like you're going to be having a couple big announcements on robotics and what it can do. I mean when when I went to the factory, you showed me those robots. Yeah.

Um how quickly you talked about the billions of robots, but how quickly and how quickly can they be deployed in a manufacturing setting? How quickly can they be utilized and be functional and be uh create that that abundance that you talked about? >> [clears throat and cough] >> Well, humanoid robotics will advance very quickly. I think uh we we we do have some the Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory.

Um we expect it it probably later this year by the end of this year, I think they'll be doing um more more complex tasks. Um and and but still deployed in an industrial environment. >> [clears throat] >> And uh and probably sometime next year, I'd say that by the by the end of next year, I I think uh we'd be selling humanoid robots uh to the public.

Um but that's when we are confident that the it's very high reliability, very high safety um and the range of functionality is uh is is also very high. You can basically ask it to do anything you'd like. We're already [clears throat] seeing that in Tesla cars is the software changes that you're doing. And then what is it every quarter now a software change that upgrades the the ability of the robot within the car?

Uh yes, the Tesla full self-driving software we we update it sometimes once a week. Um and um recently [clears throat] some of the insurance companies have said that it is actually so safe uh when when Tesla full self-driving so safe that uh they're they're offering uh customers half-price insurance if they if they use Tesla full self-driving in the car. And that can be monitored by the insurance company.

Can they Is that part of the agreement then? >> Yeah. Um but I I think a self-driving [clears throat] car is is essentially a solved problem at this point. Right. Um at and Tes- Tesla's ro- rolled out a sort of robot taxi service in a few cities in Right. will uh I be very very widespread by the end of this year within the US. And then we we hope to get supervised full self-driving approval in Europe hopefully next month. Really that quickly?

Yeah, and then uh [clears throat] maybe a similar timing timing for China, hopefully. I want to move to space cuz historically space is very capital intensive. It it historically been done by governments. I believe SpaceX changed the whole model. Um but we've seen it slow slow to scale and now we're starting to see it ramping up in what you're doing and other things.

Um talk to us about the reason you know, the automation and AI how it's changing the economics in building uh and preparing for us and operating in space. Uh sure. Um >> [clears throat] >> Well, the the key breakthrough that has that's the the major breakthrough that SpaceX is hoping to achieve this year is full reusability.

>> [clears throat] >> Um so, no one has ever achieved full reusability of a rocket, which is very important for the cost of access to space. Um we've achieved partial reusability with Falcon 9 by landing the boost stage. We've We've now landed the boost stage over 500 times. Um but uh we we don't we have to uh throw away the upper stage. The upper stage so burns up on reentry for Falcon 9.

So, and and that that the cost of that is equivalent to a small to medium-size jet. So, um but with with Starship, which is a a giant rocket, it's the it's largest flying machine ever made. That's the rocket that you're using for the idea of going to Mars, right? Yeah, Mars and the moon um as well as for uh high-volume satellite stuff.

So, Starship um hopefully this year we should prove full reusability for Starship, which will be um a profound invention uh because uh the cost of access to space will drop by a factor of a hundred when you achieve full reusability. Um Right. It's it's the same sort of economic difference that you would expect that between say a reusable aircraft and a non-reusable aircraft.

Like if you have to throw your aircraft away after every flight, that would be a very expensive flight. Um but if you only have to refuel uh then it's the cost of the fuel. And so, that's really the uh the the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space uh we think uh below the cost of uh of freight on aircraft. Uh so, you know, under under a hundred dollars a a pound type of thing easily.

Um so, it it it it makes uh >> [clears throat and cough] >> putting large satellites into into space a very low very very cheap. Um and then when you have solar in space, you you get uh five times more effectiveness, maybe even more than that than solar on the ground because it's it's always sunny and >> cold It Yeah, it's it's it's always Well, it's always sunny, so you you you don't have a day-night cycle or seasonality or weather.

>> Um and you get about uh 30% more power in space uh because uh you don't have atmospheric attenuation of the power. Right. The net effect is solar is five times more uh the any given solar panel will do five times more uh energy in space than uh on the ground. Is there any capacity in doing that and and then taking that power and bringing it back to Earth?

Is there any way of doing that or or you're just taking that power and utilizing it for the needs like building um uh AI data centers out in in the space? I I think I think the the case is it's it's a no-brainer for building uh AI solar-powered AI data centers in space um cuz as you mentioned, it's it's also very cold in space. If you're if you're if you're in the shadow, uh then it's it's very cold in space. It's 3° Kelvin.

So, you just have you have solar panels facing the sun and then uh a uh radiator that's like point like pointed away from the sun. Um so, it has no sun incidence and then it's and then it's just cooling. It's a very efficient cooling system. So net effect is that the lowest cost place to put AI will be space and that and that'll be true within 2 years, maybe 3, 3 at the latest. Wow.

>> [clears throat] >> So looking 10 or 20 years out, what would how would you describe success with AI or space technology and where do you see it? Is that can you are you more certain what's going to happen in the next 3 years or or 5 or 10?

I don't know what what's going to happen in 10 years, but the rate at which AI is progressing I think we >> [clears throat] >> we're we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year and I would say no later than next year. Wow. And then probably by 2030 or 2031 quote 5 years from now AI will be smarter than [clears throat] all of humanity collectively.

We only have a number of minutes left but I want I want to humanize you for a second. So there's no speculation that you're >> joke about peace. Right. Right. I want to >> [laughter] >> I mean I would frame this question by you are the most successful entrepreneur, industrialist in the 21st century, maybe beyond. I want to So I want to really get this you know, what inspired you? Who's inspired you? What was the foundation of your curiosity?

And and importantly what was the what was the was there a aha moment, epiphany at any time in your life and career? Well um I mean as a kid I read a lot of science fiction sci-fi fantasy books. Yep, we talked about that. And comic books. And I always liked technology. I didn't expect to be where I am today. Seems incredibly implausible.

But yeah, I was I was inspired by reading about books about the future about science fiction and and I guess I want to make science fiction not fiction forever at some point turn science fiction into science fact. Um and you know we want to have like Starfleet and Star Star Trek really for for real.

Like where where we actually have giant spaceships traveling through space going to other planets traveling to other star systems going to places where we've never gone. >> to be beamed up to go back to New York. >> [laughter] >> You know, I I'd like to just be beamed back to New York instead of flying. Yeah. Um Talking about Star Trek.

No, I guess my my essential what I would call the philosoph philosophy of curiosity I'm I'd like to understand the meaning of life. You know the it is the standard model of is the standard model of physics correct regarding the beginning of life beginning of existence and the end of the universe. What what questions do we not know to ask that we should ask? And AI will help us with these things.

So I'm just trying to understand how do we get here? What's going on? What's real? Are there aliens? Maybe there are. And if we've got if we've got spaceships that are traveling to other star systems we may find we may encounter aliens and or we may find many long dead alien civilizations. But I I'm just I just I just want to know what's going on. I'm curious about the the universe and um that's my philosophy.

Do you see yourself ever going to Mars in your lifetime? Yeah, I mean I would say like I you know I I there That's a long commitment. I've been asked Isn't that 3 years each way? It's 6 months. 6 months that's all it is? Yeah, 6 months but the planets only align every every 2 years. Okay. So um [clears throat] yeah, I've been asked a few times like do I want to you know, die on Mars and I'm like yes, but just not on impact.

>> [laughter] >> That's a good that's a good answer. Anyway, we're out of time. I hopefully everybody enjoyed this. Um There's so many myths around Elon Musk. I can tell you he's a great friend and I constantly learn so much from him. Um and I'm totally inspired by what he's what he has done. I've been inspired who he is and I'm totally inspired by his vision of the future. And I don't think it's such a bad future and I agree with his optimism.

So Elon, thank you. Any last words? Um Um Well, I think generally I think my last words would be I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited about the future. Good. Um and and and generally I think for quality of life it is actually better to err on the side of being an optimist and wrong rather than a pessimist and right. On that note >> [applause and cheering] [applause] [music]