感谢大家，呃，今天下午一直留在这里，我们进行了一些很棒的对话，也希望再进行一场很棒的对话，呃，我非常高兴，也确实深感荣幸，能够与两位先生就未来展开这场对话，呃，他们对此的了解可能比大多数人都多，呃，在我最右边、你们左边的这位无需任何介绍，埃隆·马斯克，呃，你们当然都知道他来自 Tesla 和 SpaceX，也来自 Solar City，嗯，萨姆·阿尔曼，我想说你也不太需要介绍，但为了防止你们不了解，我还是要介绍一下，呃，他经营着 Y Combinator，Y Combinator 目前投资了超过1000家公司，他们每年投资约250家公司，这些公司的总价值约为

总计约650亿美元，那是带 b 的，而为了让你们大致了解一下我们谈论的是哪类名字，我们谈的是 Airbnb、Dropbox、Stripe、Zenitz、Instacart 等等，所以这两位，两位，呃，都拥有惊人的履历，也对正在发生的事情有着惊人的洞察力。以下是我想和你们两位开始谈的地方，我想我们可能很快就会谈到外太空，嗯，但至少眼下我们会尽量把话题，呃，留在地球上。当你们思考创新，思考10年、15年、20年后我们会身处何处，以及该投资什么、该制造什么时，我要给你出个难题，埃隆，如果把 Tesla 排除在外，把 Solar City 排除在外，把 SpaceX 排除在外，然后你说我可以去

明天创办一家新公司，它会是什么，会在哪个领域，你会从哪里开始考虑？嗯，我认为，我认为在电动飞机方面存在一些，呃，相当，就是存在一个相当明显的机会，嗯，因为随着时间推移，所有交通工具都将电气化，火箭除外，嗯，讽刺的是，嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，但，但是，嗯，我，这里有，我是说，我认为有两个领域，我是说，它们问题重重，但，呃，你知道，这是那种如果你，如果你不做些什么，也许什么都不做反而更糟的事情，比如在 AI 方面，或者，嗯，在，呃，遗传学方面，你知道，所以就像，像，这，这些是我认为除了可持续交通、互联网，嗯，以及让生命遍布多个行星之外的两件事，呃，改写遗传信息，呃

以及，呃，AI，呃，后两者是最能改变，呃，人类命运的，嗯，但，但它们，它们确实很棘手，所以我是说，也许我会尝试在这两个领域之一做些什么，但它们，是的，困难重重。伊丽莎白·霍姆斯早些时候来过，在，呃，午餐时段发表了讲话。你会考虑遗传学和延长寿命，以及试图以某种方式避免，你的朋友拉里·佩吉正在投资一项业务，希望终结死亡。我，我不，我是说，这个，我是说，我其实并不是延长寿命的强烈支持者。我是说，我确实认为，嗯，更长久地拥有美好生活会更好，就像你，你会想要，呃，处理那些，你知道，当，当你变老时发生在你身上的事情，嗯，比如痴呆等等，那，那些相当重要，嗯，但是，嗯，我并不

我不确定这算不算真的，你知道，想做那件事，想涉足遗传学，但它确实会从根本上改变，呃，人类，并且，嗯，呃，AI 也会。所以你不想永远活着，好让你真的能去火星？我绝对不想永远活着。你，你想活多少年？嗯，我不知道，100个好年头。100个好年头，还是再多100个好年头？你44岁。嗯，我是说，总共100个好年头，我觉得可能就行了，也许再长一点。嗯，萨姆，你会把钱投到哪里？你，你是这里的投资者。嗯，我是说，我们，我们试图投资非常广泛的技术，所以，嗯，我们资助过一家电动飞机，或者正在资助一家电动飞机公司，嗯，我们做过 AI 公司，我们做过，呃，怎么

我们，顺便说一下，电动飞机，我认为它应该能行，我认为它，就像，它是，它是有道理的，数学上应该行得通。嗯，我觉得我，我其实，我，我，没什么大惊喜，但我会，我会在这两个领域赞同埃隆。我认为，如果你可以选，呃，2件我还没有在非常努力做的事情，嗯，呃，让AI朝积极的方向发展，我真的认为它可以，还有我，我觉得可以思考一下某种基因技术，基因技术。嗯，我，我对你不太公平，因为我，我说过我们必须把Solar City排除在外，还必须把汽车排除在外，所以我们没能真正谈到能源，但我想，能源是多大、多大、多大的一件事，你认为，当你把你的投资和你正在做的事情都考虑进去时，它是某种

你需要应对的事情之一吗？嗯，我认为可持续能源是我们本世纪面临的最重要问题。嗯，那就像是一件已知的、困难的、我们必须解决的事情。嗯，就像，如果，如果我们，如果我们继续依赖燃烧碳氢化合物，未来将会相当糟糕，而科学界的绝大多数人都相信这一点，而且我认为证据是，嗯，我是说，任何有科学，呃，背景的人都，嗯，你知道，毫不含糊。所以，嗯，所以，所以我们必须解决可持续能源问题。呃，我非常喜欢太阳能，因为我们在天空中有这个巨大的，呃，聚变球，嗯，叫作太阳，而且TOS每天都会升起。所以，如果我们能，你知道，利用太阳能加电池，我们实际上就能为可持续能源发

电提供一个完整的解决方案，然后我们需要以可持续的方式使用，这就是，呃，你知道，你需要电动交通的地方。嗯，是的，所以我想补充的是，我，我认为，嗯，把可持续能源的成本降得非常低，可能是，呃，你知道，除了AI以外，就像是我们为了世界上最贫困那一半人口的某种生活质量所能做的最重要的事情。我认为，呃，你知道，每次我，我研究这个问题时，能源成本与生活质量之间的相关程度真的都令人惊叹。核能呢？你有，你在核能方面有一些投资。是的，我的意思是，我一直说的是，我认为世界的最终状态是核能与太阳能的结合。嗯，可能是8020，无论是哪一种占哪一边，某种基于地面的核能

我，我认为聚变很可能会在未来几十年中的某个时候实现，而，而那是一件非常重大的事。呃，我认为有一个备用选项是好事。呃，有2种来源是好事。嗯，但你知道，就像，当你仔细想想时，这全都算是某种聚变。是的，我，我，我是说，我很，我是说，我认为聚变，我认为让聚变发挥作用绝对是可能的。嗯，但我认为，而我过去非常喜欢，喜欢把，把它作为长期能源来源。嗯，但我倾向于认为，本质上来自太阳的间接聚变，呃，将会是主要来源，然后在某种程度上会有，呃，聚变反应堆，用于，你知道，也许随便什么。是的，如果你住在非常靠北或非常靠南的地方之类的。核能的风险呢？

能源，一个聚变，一个聚变。是的，我假设有一些风险。没有风险，不是真的，零。我是个白痴，我不，呃，不。嗯，不，我的意思是，对于聚变，难点是让它持续进行，而不是，呃，你知道，对于、对于、对于裂变，呃，你会有一些堆芯熔毁风险，尽管，你知道，在fion方面有新技术，可以把堆芯熔毁风险降得极低。嗯，但，嗯，但对于聚变，最大的困难是，是阻止反应，是阻止火熄灭。要维持聚变反应相当困难，呃，除非你有像太阳那样非常巨大的东西，而且你有，太阳对聚变反应进行引力约束。嗯，所以既然你，你无法在地球上进行引力约束，你就必须进行某种，呃，电磁约束

某种形式的，呃，或者，或者通过让东西相互撞击来进行动能约束。嗯，所以要防止聚变爆炸不立即熄灭，是，是相当棘手的。明白了。所以聚变就像，呃，嗯，我是说，可能你要做的就是每秒重复一次，或者随便怎样。所以我的意思是，就，就某种，你知道，我，聚变就像是，当你，当你取，呃，比如说2个氢原子，或者严格来说是2种氢同位素，然后让它们撞在一起并形成氦，那，那就是聚变。然后视觉就像是，当你有，嗯，比如一个重原子，正以一个，以一个，你知道，相对来说，像是明显的速率衰变，比如铀或钚，并衰变成更小的，嗯，原子，那么，呃，那，那，那就是视觉。好吧，我科学学得不太好，所以我们要

试着，呃，继续往下，但你最近说你想用核武器轰炸火星，嗯，我，我当时真的没听明白，然后你们后面的人在进行一些科学讨论，讲用核武器轰炸火星会如何奏效。呃，是的，嗯，是的，所以，所以用核武器轰炸火星，我，我，我当时说得有点轻率了，嗯，我认为这是个相当不错的主意。谢谢，谢谢。嗯，所以，是的，真正想表达的是，但很难，你知道，在《深夜秀》上和 s 用大约 30 秒传达清楚，你知道，太阳是一场，一场核爆炸，一场聚变爆炸，太阳就是这样，它是一场持续进行的聚变爆炸。所以，如果你想，呃，给火星增加能量，比如让火星变暖，那么实际上，宇宙中几乎所有能量的来源都是聚变，嗯，你知道，就连裂变，嗯，最初也是

先有聚变，然后那，那，那后来导致了裂变，嗯，但我真正谈论的是创造 2 个小太阳，呃，2 个位于火星南北两极上方的脉动太阳，它们会让，让两极变得足够暖，从而使冻结的 CO2 气化，让大气层变得更稠密，一些水也会，嗯，升温，而且，而且你会有某种水，更多的水蒸气和，嗯，CO2 进入火星大气层，在这种情况下这是好事，因为，因为 CO2 最终会让，让火星升温，所以你会得到一种正向的，嗯，某种反应，就像火星上的一个升温正循环，比如你想让火星升温，但你不想让地球升温，你知道，所以你为什么会想住在火星上呢？嗯，对我来说，这看起来是一次很棒的冒险

除了冒险之外，你们真的，你们两位，你，你们正在投资一些东西，呃，希望有一天能去火星。没有为火星做什么，但，不好意思，我，没有为火星做什么，但我，但我希望埃尔·朗戈斯。我觉得那会很酷，但那只是给一个人的吗？说说会，会发生什么。不，真的，我想要，是的，嗯，我是说，火星这件事其实就像，如果你问，对于保护，呃，保护我们所知的文明或生命来说，什么会真正重要，不只是，你知道，人类，因为我们当然会把我们所知的生命带到火星，嗯，而且我们在火星表面检测不到任何生命，那里可能有一些地下细菌生命，但那里，在，在表面上，那里，那里什么也没有，嗯，所以这将会

成为生命向另一个星球的延伸，嗯，或者说我们所知的生命向另一个星球的延伸，嗯，而且，嗯，我认为这会对人类文明可能的存续时间以及，嗯，我们所知的生命产生巨大影响，所以它有点像一份保险，一份为生命整体投保的人寿保险，而且，嗯，你知道，所以它是，是的，很可能，因为你，因为你认为全球变暖，你觉得这里会发生什么，那是，我不想说清楚，这是，这是一个，我是说，我，我认为我们成为一个多星球物种而不是单一星球物种，而且在另一个星球上，这很重要，嗯，所以这就像，如果，如果我们，这真的就像，你想要怎样的未来，你是想要一个我们永远被限制在一个星球上的未来

还是一个我们在那里探索群星、而且，而且生活在，在许多星球上的未来，我认为后者要令人兴奋和鼓舞得多，因为前者基本上就是坐等某个、某个灭绝事件，所以因为最终会发生一个，嗯，而且，嗯，它可能在相当遥远的未来，但也可能并不在遥远的未来，嗯，所以有，所以有，我认为让生命成为多星球生命并在火星上建立一个自给自足的文明，确实有2个主要原因，一个是防御性原因，以，以确保我们所知的意识之光不会熄灭，呃，或者，或者能持续长久得多，第二个是，这会是一场，一场奇妙的冒险，呃，我们所有人即使不能，呃，亲身参与，也能间接地，呃，享受它

我认为建立多星球生命真的，呃，很重要，我同意，同意这一点，我认为我担心的是，呃，我认为在我们能够在火星上建立一个完整的殖民地之前，AI问题很可能会变得紧迫，呃，而且必须处理，没错，你们，而且我认为即使不是那样，AI也可以像是通过激光束前往火星，AI去了，那意味着它就像在那里自我什么吗，是的，我是说，通过太空发送是很难的，但AI会像是用20分钟，你知道，通过激光束，很容易，你们相信，呃，地球之外存在生命形式吗，你们认为有吗，我，我是说，我认为微生物生命存在的概率相当高，嗯，那有一个多得多，然后随着生命变得更高级，存在的就更少，而且

出现复杂生命的可能性更低，但是你不认为——你认为有复杂——你认为外面有我们可以交谈的外星人吗？你是说，不同于细菌之类的？对，对。嗯，最近《洋葱报》有一篇很棒的文章，大意是，你知道，呃，就是说，NASA 只有在发现了我们可以交谈的外星人时才应该召开新闻发布会（笑声）。嗯，但是，但是我，我觉得有。嗯，我是说，这是一个有趣的事件汇合，就像，不只是某个地方必须有生命、有智能生命进化出来，而且那种生命还必须持续很长时间，才能让我们共——让我们与它同时存在。嗯，所以这就引出了一个重大问题，叫作类似于所谓的 firmy 悖论：外星人在哪里？就像——

如果外面有这么多行星，嗯，而且宇宙已经将近140亿年了，为什么，为什么外星人没有无处不在？嗯，而，嗯，这是最令人困惑的问题之一。嗯，因为，嗯，你知道，基本上你骑自行车几10万年就能到达阿尔帕·森托尔，就像，意思是以自行车的速度。所以有点像，你知道，呃，在1亿年里，就算速度非常慢，你也能完全遍布整个银河系。所以为什么没有？他们在哪里？我现在很难理解。嗯，好吧，我们之前在后台谈过，而且我们以前也谈过这个，请你谈谈看。我觉得这是你提出过的一个思想实验：我们所有人现在共同，呃，生活在一个模拟之中。这是什么意思？

嗯，是的，这，这是一个概率问题。嗯，所以真的，如果你看看，呃，比如电子游戏的发展，呃，从比如40年前我们从《Pong》开始时算起，那时就像，你知道，是矩形把一个矩形弹向另一个矩形。嗯，而，呃，而现在我们有了照片级真实感的3D模拟，有数百万人同时游玩，或者说有数百万人同时游玩的3D游戏。嗯，而且它们还在不断变得更好。现在我们有了，呃，虚拟现实头显，所以你只要戴上它，感觉就像自己真的身处那里。嗯，你还会有，嗯，触觉反馈，也就是力反馈，呃，操纵杆，所以你真的可以拿起某个东西，并感觉自己正在拿起某个东西，就像，你知道，有触觉手套。嗯，而如果，如果你把这种进步外推——

嗯，无论按什么样的速度，就像，如果你说，好吧，假设从现在开始它的速度放慢到原来的1/100，好吧，那么，那么，那么我的意思是，电子游戏将在比如，你知道，200年后变得可以与现实区分，而不是20年后，或者类似的情况。呃，但你不认为我们现在就在一个游戏里？好吧，这就是，这是不是就像，我们所有人——有人在别的某个地方拿着一个操纵杆，在其他某个，你知道我是什么意思。感觉当然不像那样。我的意思是，我不，我不，我不认为自己正在电子游戏中被某个人操纵。但电子游戏里的人通常也不会这么想。我，我确实认为，如果你和那些使用最新虚拟现实设备的人交谈，他们在一个比较大的空间里，把类似——

空间里的长椅映射成游戏和环境里的长椅，你知道，他们第一次这么做时会有这种体验，而当他们把设备摘下来后，就会僵、僵在那里10秒，然后，然后你可以——接着你和他们交谈时，很明显，就像，他们对于这里是真实现实的信念已经动摇了，因为他们在虚拟现实中如此确信那里是真实的。所以，如果我能把这个摘下来，为什么不会还有其他层？我还认为，这和 fmy 悖论有着有趣的联系。对。嗯，没错。你知道，如果，如果这是一个模拟，那么这在某种程度上会很好地解释为什么没有外星人。距离虚拟现实在某种程度上成为我们所有人生活于其中的东西还有多远？我们会——

通过我们的 VR 设备来参加这场会议，我们会通过我们的 VR 设备来参加这场会议。我的意思是，我确实认为，真正亲自到场仍然有某种意义。嗯，这一点我们大概在很长时间内都不会失去，希望永远不会。呃，但是，嗯，我是说，随着 Oculus 和 Valve 正在推出的东西，嗯，而且我相信其中一些，就是第一批 VR 头显会在，嗯，明年年初 doe 推出。对，就在接下来的几个月里。嗯，而，而且我看过的演示，我想 Sam 大概也看过，都极其有吸引力。嗯，而且确实会有那种奇怪的感觉，因为你，你，你在一个非常不起眼、平淡无奇的房间里戴上头显，而，而你一戴上头显，突然间就可以身处任何地方，就像你可以——对，你知道，我体验过这个——

有一个演示：当你靠近悬崖边缘时，他们会朝你吹风；当你走近火堆时，他们会打开加热器。你完全看不到这一切，因为你只是戴着它，然后，然后这真的非常、非常有吸引力。嗯，我想谈谈另一个同样有吸引力的东西，那就是 Tesla。它真的很不错。谈谈 X 吧。它是一款 SUV。嗯，它是一款 SUV，但我本来想说的是：132,000美元，究竟有多少人真的会买这东西？嗯，是的，所以最，最，最先生产的汽车全都是那种配置齐全的版本。因此并不是说基础价格是，你知道，132,000美元。它是，嗯，我们还会有一个仍然很贵、处于昂贵一侧的版本，但在任何补贴之前，明年的价格大约是75,000美元。嗯，而且——

嗯，你知道，算上激励措施之类的，它，你知道，可能是65，所以它它它仍然很贵，但不像132那么离谱。嗯，然后，然后再过几年，我们应该会推出，呃，Model 3，嗯，它的起售价将是，嗯，35,000美元，所以它是一款更小的车，但它，你知道，嗯，要实惠得多。好的，那么对于Tesla那些，呃，可以说是真正高效的、在Twitter上关注你的AOS来说，你需要，你需要回答一件事，就是上周有人在推文里提到你，我想是关于X，然后你发了一条推文，提到了，呃，Y和三，然后你删除了那条推文。是的，这件事，大家都想知道你为什么删除那条推文，以及那条推文实际上说了什么。嗯，我，不，我想，我想它只是说了类似，会有

Model 3和Model Y，嗯，其中一款会有类似faling门的东西，这很显然就是Model Y，嗯，所以，嗯，但是我，我，我删掉了那条，还有大概十几条其他推文，因为我觉得我的Twitter历史记录有点漫无边际，嗯，但这没有任何意义，删除没有任何意义，就像我不认为删除一条推文就能让它从互联网上消失之类的。那为什么，为什么要删除那条推文？我只是不喜欢我的Twitter历史记录看起来的样子，它，呃，它太漫无边际了。你投资了Twitter。我，我投资了Twitter和Tesla。对，你有一辆Tesla。为那些还在观望的人说说理由吧，你——我让这件事变得更难了，因为他现在必须回答。为什么，在你看来，这会变成什么？你确定

你不想让他回答？是啊，我们知道他会说什么。听着，我是说，我认为，正如大多数拥有它的人所认为的那样，它是市面上最好的车。呃，我以前有一辆Roadster，一辆Tesla Roadster，它并不是最好的车，嗯，但Model S确实是，就像，它就是，它是市场上最好的车，而且我认为，呃，人们会把它想成现有的汽车公司，呃，但实际上这就像是一家附带一辆汽车的软件公司，而且它，你知道，你就像，你可以说是指向并点击，你把方向盘指向某处，踩下那个东西，它就这么到那里了。它不会发出噪音，它，就像，它非常可靠，软件真的能用，它是唯一一款拥有好软件的汽车。所以我认为人们真的很喜欢它。现在，是的，它就像真的

仍然很贵，但，呃，我认为，呃，好吧，我有信心，一款面向大众市场的Tesla会表现得非常好，而且我也认为，我开过的其他电动汽车感觉落后了很多年，对吧。呃，你谈到这是一家软件公司，你认为自己是一家软件公司吗？我认为我们是一家软件和硬件公司，嗯，但，但是软件部分确实变得越来越重要，嗯，所以两方面都必须做好，嗯，因为它，你知道，这是一种整体性的产品体验，但是，嗯，呃，软件越来越成为，你知道，这个问题中占比越来越大的部分，尤其是当你走向自动驾驶时，嗯，而且，嗯，是的，所以，所以有一种观点，我不知道这是否是一种阴谋论，说你正在开发自动驾驶功能和其他无人驾驶

把类似的功能装进车里，却不宣传它已经在里面了，然后有一天你会打开一个开关，汽车就会开始自动行驶，嗯，呃，不，并不完全是那样，但我们很快会上传新软件，而且，而且我们，这其实不是什么秘密之类的，嗯，我们有第 7 版软件，它会启用，嗯，高速公路 Autopilot，所以汽车将能够在高速公路上自行转向，或者，或者任何一种，嗯，任何一种没有真正陡峭急弯弯道的道路，嗯，而且，嗯，而且它在交通中也会转向得相当好，所以这是它会，它我认为会非常擅长转向的 2 种场景，嗯，而且，而且，而且我们会，那目前正在公开测试，所以我们有，嗯，我不知道，600

或者 700 名，呃，正在测试这个，呃，自动转向软件的 Tesla 驾驶员、车主，而且，而且，是的，请讲。我认为完全自动驾驶汽车，不特指 Tesla，只是泛指，可能会比人们意识到的更快到来。是的，绝对如此。你去问大多数人，他们仍会说还要 10 到 20 年，呃，而我其实认为，我们会在几年内拥有某种完全点到点自动驾驶，它不会是不同寻常的几年，比如 2 或 3 年，3 或 4 年，也许更清楚。我同意，我认为在 2 到 3 年的时间范围内，它很可能在技术上实现。我的意思是，你将能够演示它，嗯，但在获得监管批准之前，你无法进入完全自动驾驶。

所以，从它在技术上成为可能，到，嗯，从一般意义上来说，嗯，你知道，也就是说，你知道，不只是在一个地图绘制得非常严密的情境中，比如说山景城或帕洛阿尔托，对吧，而是从一般意义上说，比如，你知道，它能不能，它能不能几乎在任何地方进行点到点行驶，对吧。嗯，我认为那只需，你知道，2 到 3 年，嗯，但之后监管机构批准，呃，允许它自动驾驶，则是在那之后的 1 到 5 年不等，我不知道，取决于地点，因为监管、监管机构必须确信它是实质性的。我想他们会，他们会希望看到它比人驾驶的汽车显著地更，呃，显、显著更安全。

我想在大约 5 分钟后开放观众提问，所以我只剩几个问题要问你们，呃，如果观众中有人有问题，呃，稍后马上就可以尝试射门。我想谈谈创业，因为你们两位都是创业者，你会投资创业者，你本人也是一位，而且你经常思考这个问题。呃，你的老朋友 Peter Teal 喜欢说，他不会投资年龄超过 30 岁的人，30 岁应该是截止线。你现在 44 岁，他投资过你。是的，我猜会有些例外，但你可能是这条规则的例外。作为一个每天投资公司的人，你认为存在一个截止年龄吗？这里有很多人超过 30 岁，我们完了吗？呃，我是说，我们说过。

这件事，但当我们查看我们的数据时，呃，我们资助的创业者的平均年龄就在 29 或 30 岁左右，嗯，所以我们资助的创业者显然有很多超过 30 岁，嗯，其中一些后来创办了价值数十亿美元的公司。所以我认为，你当然不能说 30 岁以上的人不可能创办公司，那太荒谬了，呃，而且我们计划继续投资各个年龄段的人。嗯，我们注意到的相关性是，呃，如果你看看我们那些真正成功的公司，也就是那些价值数十亿美元的公司，那些创始人的平均、平均年龄确实明显偏年轻，但创始人的成功率，你知道，如果用公司成功与否这种二元标准来看，对不起，年龄大于……

30，所以，你知道，我认为更年轻的创业者往往会承担更大的风险，呃，也许他们愿意从事这些时间跨度非常长的项目，但这就是我们看到的唯一相关性。我认为，说我永远不会投资任何 30 岁以上的人，会是一种疯狂的策略。是的，不，我是说，我认为，我认为这，我也不认为 Peter 是那个意思。是的，我是说，你绝对可以在任何年龄创办公司并取得成功。我的意思是，真正的问题只是，比如，你是否，你知道，是否有一个好点子，是否非常努力，是否能够吸引一支出色的团队并激励团队，嗯，而那，呃，我是说，那基本上才是真正重要的。但你有过多个点子，顺便说一句，还有另一种观点，那就是你只能。

真正拥有一个伟大的点子，对吧，每个人大概都有，也许，也许一个伟大的点子。其实并不真的是点子，你知道，我是说，就像那句老话，1% 靠灵感，我，我想，99% 靠“波斯特普·斯派雷申”，我认为这大体上是对的。我的意思是，很多时候，公司起步时的，的，的，呃，点子其实是错的，嗯，但他们适应得足够快，把它变成某种正确的东西，对吧。嗯，我可以说，比如在 Tesla 创立之初，我们以，呃，我们以 2 个错误的前提创办了公司，这些前提后来证明，比如，真的很愚蠢。嗯，呃，其中一个是，呃，我们能够从南加州一家名为 AC Propulsion 的公司获得动力总成技术的许可，而且它直接就能用。结果并没有。

那完全行不通。嗯，然后我们还以为能够以低成本改造 Lotus Elise 的底盘，嗯，并且基本上能把 AC Propulsion 的动力总成技术装进一副 Lotus 至少底盘里，然后很快把它造出来，嗯，再卖出去，而且它会，那，那会没问题。嗯，但，但正如我说的，AC Propulsion 的技术并不适合制造任何，任何具有成本效益且可靠的汽车。嗯，用于小型原型车之类的还可以，但不，不适合商业产品。而且，而且这个，呃，然后 Lotus Elise，嗯，最后的结果比我们从一开始就设计一辆车还要糟，嗯，因为我们最后，呃，更改了车里大约 96% 的部件，嗯，并使所有碰撞结果和所有安全方面的东西失效。

这辆车最后重了 30%，不得不变得更长，嗯，最后就像，就像如果你，如果你想，如果你心里想要一栋房子，却没有真正从零开始建造那栋房子，而是找来一栋现有的房子，最后把地下室里除了一面墙以外的一切都拆掉，嗯，而且还不如从一开始就建造你想要的那栋房子。所以，所以，所以，基本上 Tesla 是在 2 个愚蠢点子的基础上创立的，嗯，而且，嗯，但我们设法，你知道，克服这 2 个、2 个问题很艰难，但我们，我们设法挺过来了。所以，这就是，我认为更重要的事情是，比如，从某个地方开始，然后，你知道，真正做好准备去质疑你的假设，修正你做错的事情，并且。

呃，适应现实。你是如何同时经营 2 家公司的？Jack Dorsy 正准备以一种实质性的方式承担这件事。埃隆·马斯克一天的生活是什么，实际上是什么样的？是的，我不建议经营 2 家公司，呃，这，嗯，真的会大幅减少你的自由。所以，嗯，而且，而且我来告诉你具体情况。我的一天可能和人们想象的有点不同。我的意思是，我的大部分时间其实都花在，嗯，工程和设计上，所以那大概占，我不知道，比如 70% 的时间。嗯，像这样的媒体事务可能占我时间的 2 或 3%，真的真的非常少，嗯，而且我还会进一步减少，可能会降到我时间的 1%。所以，呃，快速问一个，然后我们就转向观众。政治，我想问你们两位。

政治问题，一个是政治创新，你觉得什么时候才会有那么一天，我们真的能在手机上投票？嗯，我们似乎仍然很愚蠢地去投票，呃，你知道，在我们当地的选区，很多时候是在当地学校。我还想了解一下，呃，就你们所做的事情而言，现在外面有哪些人是你可能喜欢或不喜欢的，以及你认为谁可能做得最好。好吧，我来回答第一个问题，埃隆可以回答第二个。嗯，特朗普太惊人了。呃，我，我认为，是的，我们总有一天会在手机上投票。我觉得这，这就像，而且它会产生重大影响，因为它会真正改变投票的人群。所以我认为那可能还要一段时间，因为有很多人不想看到选民群体发生变化，但是，呃，你

知道，从20年的时间框架来看，我总是尽量从这种，你知道，10年或20年的时间框架来思考事情。我觉得你可能会过于陷入这个月或明年会发生什么，我们是不是处于泡沫中，我们是在低点还是高点买入，但，但它最终会发生，而不管怎样，我从中得到“索莱斯”。埃隆，谈谈唐纳德·特朗普。对，他问你。嗯，我是说，我其实并没有，呃，强烈的感觉，只是我，你知道，希望特朗普不会“福雷特”，你知道，共和党的提名，因为我认为那，嗯，是的，那不会是好事。嗯，所以，不过我是说，巴·迪勒说他会搬出这个国家，你呢？真的吗？不，我会搬。我是说，我觉得他最多会获得共和党提名，但是

我觉得那仍然会有点令人难堪，所以，嗯，我觉得那可能会发生。是的。嗯，你认为会发生吗？可能会。如果真的发生，我不会感到意外。是的。嗯，老实说，我对这件事没有强烈的感觉。你会参与政治吗？嗯，我尽可能少地参与政治。是的，有时候我必须在一定程度上参与，嗯，主要是因为 SpaceX 必须与波音和“洛克特”较量，嗯，你知道，围绕国家安全以及民用太空发射“康特拉斯”。所以，如果我们不，如果我们不与他们较量，那么，你知道，那么他们就会，我们会输。整件事有多腐败？是的，嗯，那个，我是说，那个，我是说，实际上我会说，总体而言，我想它并没有那么腐败，因为如果，如果它很腐败，那么 SpaceX

就完全没有机会。嗯，因为 SpaceX，嗯，我是说，现在它，它已经变得大了一点，但在，在我们赢得第一份政府合同时，它非常小。要是，要是当时腐败非常严重，那我们什么也赢不到。嗯，所以，你知道，我认为，你知道，我实际上认为，在政治上，可见度越，越，越高，腐败就越少。所以，嗯，我认为实际上，总统层面的腐败可能最少，然后是参议院层面、众议院层面，接着州层面的腐败可能会多一点。呃，基本上就是人们投入了多少关注，这，这，这决定了会发生多少腐败，对吧？嗯，是的，你知道，也许吧，我们会开放提问，但这让我想到

对你们一些业务唯一真正重大的批评，是它们在某种程度上受到了政府补贴；如果没有政府帮助，这些企业能够成功吗？嗯，是的，绝对可以。那、那、那个，嗯，在某个时候，我也许应该写一篇反驳，因为有一篇像是胡说八道的《洛杉矶时报》文章，而许多这类说法都源自那里，嗯，因为《洛杉矶时报》那篇文章所做的，是把，嗯，Tesla 已经获得的所有激励和 Tesla 将会获得的所有激励加起来，也就是像跨越30年的时期，并让它，让它听起来像是一个很大的数字，嗯，但它是，你知道，嗯，就像如果有人每年赚50,000美元，你不会说，你不会称他们为百万富翁，只因为未来20年里他们累计会赚到100万美元，但

那实际上就是那篇文章所做的，呃，嗯，我认为对 Tesla 和 Solar City 的激励，它们真正做的是抵消，嗯，那、那、那些碳排放活动实际存在和事实上享有的激励，所以，而且我认为它们实际上并没有抵消，所以碳排放活动仍然在某种程度上压倒了，嗯，电动汽车和太阳能接收器获得的激励。我的意思是，例如，低产油井有20%的，嗯，税收激励，嗯，而太阳能的激励目前是30%，但会在2年后降至10%，对吧，所以，你知道，2年后，太阳能发电的激励将是低产油井的一半，对吧，所以，你知道，呃，而且，而且 SpaceX 成功了，尽管波音洛克获得了超过10亿美元的

呃，用于发射活动的补贴，所以我认为，就 SpaceX 而言，它算是在尽管存在激励的情况下取得了成功，呃，而就 Solar City 和 Tesla 而言，激励，你知道，提供了一定程度的帮助，但不是、不是决定性因素，它们、它们、它们是催化剂，让事情发生得比原本会发生的稍微快一点，但，嗯，你知道，看看类似这样的东西，比如，电动汽车有7,500美元的税收抵免，嗯，好吧，所以最终就成了消费者购买汽车时获得的10%，呃，折扣，它、它并不是天壤之别。好吧，有很多人，呃，正站着，我们想回答所有问题，我们将试着用某种快速问答的方式，所以我会请你把问题说得简短些，而且

这些人也会让他们的回答保持简短，呃，至少我们会希望如此，继续。嗨，我叫，呃，Bruce Gman，我是加拿大多伦多的一名私人投资者，埃隆，如果你对下次选举不满意，非常欢迎你回加拿大，嗯，问题是关于人工智能的，就像任何好的、好的新技术一样，人们总是害怕变化和可能出错的事情，我想知道 Sam 和埃隆能否与我们分享他们对人工智能影响我们未来生活的积极愿景。对，我们在整场谈话中甚至还没谈到人工智能。是的，我、我认为，听着，这里确实有一个非常积极的愿景，对吧，我认为科幻小说里的版本要么是我们奴役它，要么是它奴役我们，但还有这种，呃，快乐的共生

愿景，我不认为这是默认情况，但这是我们应该努力实现的目标。我认为已经，嗯，人类和人工智能正在共同进化，而且还没有人注意到这一点，但我认为已经没有任何人类能理解 Google 搜索结果在第一页上的全部排名方式，那确实是机器学习算法，所以当我们在 Google 上搜索时，是一个人工智能在决定我们应该看到什么，嗯，当一个约会网站把2个人配对到一起时，有一个没有人类理解其运作方式的机器学习算法，正在让人们走到一起，然后生下孩子，因此实际上，你知道，你有这样一个像是让人类繁殖的机器学习算法，所以真的，我是说，你确实有，嗯，所以有这个，然后，你知道，那些人像是从事

之后的算法，所以我认为，未来的美好愿景大致是人类处在 AI 之中，并处于一种共生关系，是分布式 AI，它在某种程度上赋能许多不同的个人，而不是由这一个 AI 来支配我们所做的一切，这个 AI，你知道，比任何其他实体聪明100万倍，聪明100万倍。所以我认为，那才是我们应该努力实现的方向。我同意 Sam 所说的，嗯，我是说，我们实际上已经，嗯，是一个人机集体共生体了，嗯，就像，我们就像一个，像一个巨大的赛博格，嗯，那实际上就是今天的社会，嗯，你知道，但但我显然会有点，我是说，对那个赛博格集体中的人类部分抱有亲近感，嗯，而且，嗯，我确实认为我们需要谨慎

对待 AI 的发展，并确保它最终对人类有益，确保它，呃，确保未来是美好的。这边的问题。好的，呃，不久前，哦，顺便说一下，我叫 Jessica sing，但不久前，在 Larry Wilmore 的《夜间秀》上，他们请来了 Bill n the Science Guy，在那里讨论新的，呃，火星发现，而其他 P 嘉宾基本上说，我们的社会并不关心 NASA 的科学发现，那么，呃，创新，呃，这对于一个只重视结果的社会意味着什么，比如最终产品，比如一辆汽车，或者比如终于进入太空，却并不真正重视到达那里的过程 proc？嗯，我是说，我确实，我确实认为这其中存在……我不确定我同意这一点。我的意思是，我认为我们

确实重视发现和和新事物，嗯，以及了解宇宙，嗯，我是说，火星上发现有水流动这件事受到了相当多的关注，嗯，我当然会说关注应该更多，但，嗯，我觉得还可以，我觉得并不糟糕，我觉得我们，我觉得我们的情况比那个节目所暗示的要好。好的，是的，好的，如果可以的话，我们会尽量让上面的每个人都提问，所以请说。给 Elon 的问题，我我了解到，超级高铁的灵感来自你对加州高铁的看法，呃，你能否分享一下这些看法，并介绍一点超级高铁？嗯，是的，只是，嗯，如果如果如果我们要在加州拥有一种，嗯，某种新的交通方式，我认为拥有它是件好事，那么我们会想要，我们

想要努力拥有某种，嗯，尖端技术，嗯，而且，嗯，当当我读到高铁计划时，嗯，它要花很多钱，却并不比汽车或飞机显然更具吸引力，嗯，就完成旅程所需的时间而言，嗯，而且而且它会让加州纳税人背上相当大的一笔钱，需要由他们支付。所以，嗯，所以就像，如果你付了，如果你付了高价，你就应该得到一个，一个很棒的结果，比如说这应该是合乎情理的，嗯，而从我所能看出的情况来说，那那似乎并不是正在发生的事，嗯，所以我当时在想，那么，从比如洛杉矶到旧金山或沿途城市，最快的方式会是什么，嗯

然后，嗯，呃，最后提到我有这个一个想法，实际上进行了一次与此不无相似的 toour，然后然后发现我最初的想法行不通，之后就不断迭代，嗯，和其他一群人一起，最后，呃，想出了超级高铁。所以大概就是这样，它实际上，它最终从技术角度行得通了，嗯，而现在有一些公司正在推进这件事，这很棒，我希望我们能看到一些，我希望我们能看到它成为现实，嗯，SpaceX 正在举办一项，一项超级高铁学生竞赛，嗯，其中，嗯，各支团队将竞赛，看谁能制造出最好的舱体，嗯，而且，嗯，所以我们正在洛杉矶建设一段大约1英里长的，呃，超级高铁，呃，路段，嗯，就在 SpaceX 附近，实际上是 whone，但属于洛杉矶县，嗯，而且，嗯，所以我认为

看到学生们能想出什么，以及这里谁能提出最先进的舱体设计，会非常令人兴奋，嗯，而且，呃，我我想我们会这样设置，比如比如比如，获胜者将是谁能让自己的舱体在一个 on M 路段内跑得最快，然后，比如，在终点设置一个很大的撞击区，嗯，比如说，如果舱体没能及时减速，就可以进入撞击区，你知道，我觉得那会是一场相当激动人心的比赛。我们还有几秒钟，我们来接下这个问题。谢谢。你好，我叫 Bish，是 Stanford 的一名计算机科学专业学生，到目前为止，西部我们今天在这里听到的大多数初创公司，或者我们在新闻中听说的那些，都是由技术支撑的商业模式上的杰出创新，但是

另一方面，那些建立在真正技术创新基础上的公司却有点有限，我们在这里有几个例子。我想问 Sam，你认为为什么会是这种情况？作为后续问题，问 Elon，如果 Tesla 或 SpaceX 是你的首次创业，而且如果你当时正在外面为它们寻找资金，你认为自己还能成功创办它们吗？所以，我我我认为，很多人都在谈论，你知道，没有人在做任何有趣的事，我们都只是在做软件，这个世界真的很糟糕，正在变得更糟，进步已经终结，而我从来不同意这种说法。我认为，所以分为2部分回答。第1，我我实际上认为我们正处于惊人的创新速度之中。正在发生的事，就像历史上发生的那样，是

当有一个巨大的机会时，人才会在某种程度上四处佩带饰带并找到它，而过去几十年里软件取得了惊人的进步，未来还会有更多进步，因此很多有才华的人选择从事它。但这并不意味着我们没有制造媒体报道，这只意味着这一个领域正在以难以置信的速度改变世界。人们也在做其他事情，正如你提到的，而且你知道，在 Y Combinator，我们资助从事许多事情的公司。问题在于，媒体喜欢报道软件公司，而他们对报道其他事物兴趣寥寥。因此，作为局外人，你会说，嗯，只有软件，嗯，但那根本不反映现实。你知道，我们资助从事各种

各种事情，而且我认为我们喜欢资助科技，我们喜欢资助时间跨度很长的技术创新。媒体不喜欢报道它，嗯，而且我还认为，从事软件并没有什么错。嗯，是的，我认为 SpaceX 和 Tesla 可能不是，不是最适合作为第一件事来做的公司。嗯，我是说，一般来说，因为，比如，嗯，如果某件事是资本密集型的，嗯，要把它启动起来真的很难。嗯，因为，你确实为了支持这2家公司而彻底花光了钱吗？是的。哇，那么我想那不会是一个好的第一次。不。嗯，我是说，我一开始的那个，那个想法是，嗯，我就像，我其实并不是一个投资者，我只是基本上投资于我帮助创建的公司，而我当时想，你知道，刚从

关于PayPal，嗯，我算是，我说过我原以为会把大约一半的钱投资到SpaceX、Tesla和Solar City，嗯，然后我还会剩下另一半，只不过事情并没有真正这样发展，因为随后2008年和2009年的经济衰退来了，而选择是要么投入一切，嗯，要么这些公司肯定会死，所以就像，如果我投入一切，那它们也许能活下来，嗯，而如果我不投入一切，那它们肯定会死，所以最后投了任何，投了所有钱，而且实际上真的非常紧张，嗯，事实上，比如2008年年底Tesla的那轮融资，嗯，我记得很清楚，因为我们，我们是在可能的最后一天的最后一个小时完成那轮融资的，当时是下午6:00。

午。

2008年圣诞夜，嗯，如果我们没有完成那轮融资，我们本来会在圣诞节后大约2天破产，嗯，是的，那很艰难。好的，呃，我们得收尾了，给你们两位的最后一个问题，但我要先从埃隆开始，呃，你的朋友拉里·佩奇曾经说过，呃，与其把他所有的钱都捐给慈善机构，他更愿意把所有的钱都给你。他可能已经改变主意了。所以我给你们两位的问题是，你想把钱给到哪里，你会把所有的钱给谁，或者你会把所有的钱用来做什么？嗯，好的，我是说，我的预期是，呃，我是说，我，我想算是继续，嗯，继续在火星上建立一座可自我维持的城市这条道路。我认为那是需要发生的一件重要事情，嗯，然后，嗯，还有可持续的

能源、可持续交通，呃，然后是教育，呃，还有，嗯，儿科医疗保健，这些算是，我是说，那基本上就是我所有、所有的钱要去的地方。“为什么组合器”算是很好的一点是，我可以把我所有的钱重新投入到我所信奉的技术中，呃，所以我会继续这样做。而拉里·佩奇会把你的钱给你。呃，埃隆·马斯克、山姆、山姆·阿尔曼，谢谢你们。

thank you all for uh sticking around this afternoon we had some great conversations and we're hoping to have another great one uh I it is my pleasure an honor or privilege really to have this conversation about the future uh with two gentlemen who know uh probably more about it than most uh the fellow all the way to my right to your left does not need any introduction Elon Musk uh you all know from Tesla and SpaceX of course from Solar City um Sam Alman I would say you don't need too much introduction either but I'm going to give it to you just in case you don't uh he runs ycombinator ycombinator has investments in over a thousand companies at this point they're investing in about 250 companies every single year those companies collectively are worth

about $65 billion dollar in total that's with a b and to give you just a a sort of a sense of the the kind of names we're talking about we're talking about Airbnb Dropbox stripe zenitz instacart Etc so both both uh folks uh with an amazing pedigree and an amazing sense of what's going on here's where I want to start the conversation with both of you and I think we're going to probably go to outer space very quickly um but we're going to try to keep it uh on Earth at least for the moment when you think about Innovation and you think about where we are going to be 10 15 20 years and what to invest in and what to make I'm going to make it hard for you Elon if you took Tesla out of it took Solar City out of it took SpaceX out of it and you said I could go

start a new company tomorrow it would be what it would be in what area where would you start thinking about well I think I think there's some uh fairly like there's a fairly obvious opportunity in electric aircraft um because all transport will Electrify over time with the exception of rockets um ironically um and um you know but but um I there's I mean there's I think there there's two areas which I mean they're fraught with issues but uh you know it's one of those things where if you if you don't do something maybe not doing something is worse like on the AI front or um on uh genetics you know so like the like the the those are the two things I think besides sustainable transport the internet um and making life multiplanetary uh rewriting genetics uh

and uh AI uh the latter two are the ones that can most change uh Destiny of humanity um but but they're they're really dodgy so I mean maybe I'd try to do something in one of those two areas but they're yeah fro with difficulty Elizabeth Holmes was here earlier spoke during uh the lunch hour do you think about genetics and Longevity and trying to sort of avoid your friend Larry pagee is investing in a business hoping to end death I I don't I mean the the I mean I'm not actually a huge proponent of longevity I mean I do think that um having a good life for longer is better like you you'd want to uh address the you know the things that that happen to you when when you're older um like dementia and so forth th those are pretty important um but um I'm not

I'm not sure it's sort of actually you know want to do that want to get into the genetics thing but it is something that's going to fundamentally change uh humanity and um uh along with AI so you don't want to live forever so that you can actually get to Mars I definitely don't want to live forever how how many years do you want to live um I don't know 100 good ones 100 good ones or 100 more good ones you're 44 um I mean 100 good ones in total I think is probably fine and maybe a bit longer um Sam what where where would you put your money you're you're the investor here well I mean we we try to invest in a very broad range of technology so um we funded an electric airplane or funding electric airplane company um we've done AI companies we've done uh how

we the electric airplane by the way I think it should work I think it like it makes it it makes sense the math should work um I think I I actually I I no huge surprise but I'll I'll agree with Elon on those two areas I think if you could pick uh two things that I'm not already working really hard on um uh AI having ai go in the positive direction which I really think it can and I I think thinking about sort of genetic technology genetic technology um I I made it unfair for you because I I said we had to take Solar City out and we had to take the cars out so we didn't get to really talk about energy but I imagine how big how big how big a thing do you think energy all in and when you think about both your Investments and what you're doing is something

that is one of the things that you need to tackle well I think sustainable energy is the most important problem that we face this Century um that's like a known difficult thing that we have to solve um like if if we if we continue to rely on burning hydrocarbons it the future is going to be quite bad and the vast majority of the scientific establishment believes that and the evidence I think is well I mean anyone with a scientific uh background is um you know unequivocal so um so so we got to solve sustainable energy uh I'm a big fan of solar because we got this big uh Fusion ball in the sky um called the Sun and TOS up every day so if we can you know use solar energy plus batteries we can actually have a complete solution for sustainable energy gener

generation and then we need to use in a sustainable way which is uh you know where where you need the electric transport um yeah so the thing I would add I I think um getting the cost of sustainable energy Down super low is probably uh you know short of AI like the most important thing we can do for sort of quality of life of the poorest half of the world I think that uh you know every time I I look into this it's it's really amazing how much the cost of energy and the quality of life correlate what about nuclear energy you have you have some investments in nuclear energy yeah I mean what I've always said is I think the end state of the world is a combination of nuclear and solar um probably 8020 one way or the other sort of terrestrial based nuclear

I I think Fusion is likely to work at some point in the next couple of decades and and that's a really big deal uh I think that it's good to have a backup option uh it's good to have two sources um but you know like it's all sort of fusion when you think about it yeah I I I mean I'm big I mean I think Fusion I think it's definitely possible to make fusion work um the but I think the and I used to be a big fan of of like having of that as the long-term energy source um but I'm inclined to think like indirect Fusion uh from the Sun essentially is going to be the primary source and then to some degree there will be uh Fusion reactors for you know maybe whatever yeah if you're really far north or really far south or something what about the risks of of nuclear

energy a fusion a fusion yeah I assume there's some risk there's no risk not really zero I'm an idiot I don't uh no um no mean with Fusion the difficulty is keeping it going uh not uh you know with with with fision uh you you have some meltdown risk although there's you know there's new technology on the fion front that makes meltdown risk extremely low um but um but with Fusion the great difficulty is is keeping the reaction from is keeping it the fire from going out it it's quite hard to sustain a fusion reaction uh unless you have something very big like the sun and you have the sun has gravitational confinement of the fusion reaction um so since you you can't do gravitational confinement on Earth you have to do some sort of uh electromagnetic confinement

one form or another uh or or a kinetic confinement by slamming things into each other um so it's it's quite tricky to prevent a fusion explosion from not immediately extinguishing got it so Fusion is like uh um I mean probably what you do is just repeat it every second or whatever so I mean just just a sort of you know I Fusion is like when you when you take uh say two hydrogen atoms or or two hydrogen Isotopes technically and slam them together and form helium that's that's fusion and then vision is like when you've got um like a heavy atom that is decaying at a at a you know relatively like a noticeable rate like uranium or plutonium and decays into smaller um atoms then uh that that's that's Vision okay I didn't do so well in science so we're going

to try to uh move along but you recently said that you wanted to Nuke Mars um I I didn't really understand then you guys in the back were doing some science talk about how nuking Mars would work uh yeah um yeah so so nuking Mars I I I sort of was a little flippant about that um I think it's a really decent idea thank you thank you um so yeah the what is really getting at but it's hard to you know convey that in like 30 seconds you know on on The Late Show with s was was that the the sun is a a nuclear explosion a fusion explosion that's what the sun is it's an ongoing Fusion explosion so if you wanted to uh add energy to Mars like warm up Mars the really the source of almost all energy in the universe is fusion um you know even fision is um originally

there was fusion and then that that that then later resulted in fishion um but what I was really talking about is creating two little Suns uh two pulsing Suns above the North and South Pole of Mars that would warm the the poles up enough so that the Frozen CO2 would would gasify and densify the atmosphere some of the water would also um heat up and and you'd have sort of water more water vapor and um CO2 in the in the Martian atmosphere which in that case is good because the the CO2 ends up warming warming Mars up and so you get a positive um sort of reaction like it's a positive cycle of of warming on Mars like you want to warm Mars up but you don't want to warm Earth up you know so why would you ever want to live on Mars um it looks like a great adventure

to me Beyond The Adventure do you actually both of you you you're investing in stuff uh that hopefully one day will go to Mars nothing for Mars but excuse me I nothing for Mars but I but I hope El Longos I think that would be cool but is that just for one person tell what what's going to happen no really I want to yeah well I mean the the Mars thing is is really like if you say what is going to be really important to the preservation of uh of civilization or Life as we know it more than just you know Humanity because of course we bring Life as we know it to Mars um and that there's no life that we can detect on the surface of Mars there may be some Subterranean bacterial life but there's it's on on the surface there there isn't anything um so this would

be the extension of life to another planet um or Life as we know it to another planet um and um I think would be make a huge difference to the prob lifespan of human civilization and um and Life as we know it so it's sort of like an insurance policy a life insurance policy for Life collectively and um you know so it's yeah probable because you because you think global warming what do you what do you think is going to happen here that's I don't want to be clear this is this is a I mean I I think it's important that we become a multiplet species not a single planet species but on another planet um so this is if if we it's like really it's like what kind of future do you want to have do you want to have a future Where We Are Forever confined to one planet

or one where we are out there exploring the stars and and on on many planets and I think the the latter one is far more exciting and inspiring because the former is basically waiting around until some some Extinction event so because eventually there will be one um and um it might be quite far in the future but it also might not be far in the future um so there's so there's the there's really two main reasons I think to make life multiplanetary and to establish a self-sustaining civilization on Mars one is the defensive reason to to ensure that the light of Consciousness as we know it is not extinguished uh or or lasts much longer and the second is that it would be an an amazing adventure that uh that we could all enjoy uh vicariously uh if not uh personally

I think it's really uh important to establish multiplanetary life I agree with with that I think my concern is that the uh I think the AI question is likely to become pressing uh and important to deal with before we can establish a full Colony on Mars that's true you guys and I think even if not then the AI can like go to Mars on a laser beam the AI goes does that mean it's like justs itself there yeah I mean it's very hard to send through space but the AI is going to go like 20 minutes you know on a laser beam it's easy do you guys believe in uh life forms outside of Earth you think there are I I mean I think there's there's quite a high chance of microbial life um that's there's a much that then as you get more advanced in life that there's less and

less likelihood of of um like sophisticated life but you don't think do you think there's sophist you think there aliens out there that we can talk to you mean as opposed to like bacteria yeah yeah um there's a great onion article recently about like you know uh like like NASA should only hold a press conference if they find aliens that we can talk [Laughter] to um but but I I think so um I mean it's it's an interesting Confluence of events like it's not just that there has to be life intelligent life that evolves somewhere but that that life has to last for a long time for us to be Co for us to exist at the same time as that um so what it suggests is there's this great questions called the like sort of the firmy Paradox like where are the aliens like

if there are so many planets out there um and the universe is almost 14 billion years old why why aren't the aliens everywhere um and um this is a one of the most perplexing questions um because um you know you could basically bicycle to Alpa centor in a few hundred thousand years like meaning at that's at bicycle speed so it's sort of like you know uh in 100 million years like even at a very slow speed you could completely blanket the Galaxy so why why not where are they it's very hard for me to get now um well we were we were talking in the back and we've had this conversation before you please weigh in on this and I think it's a thought experiment that you have suggested that we are all collectively right now uh living in a simulation what does that

mean um yeah it's it's a probabilistic thing um so they really if you look at uh at say the advancement of video games uh from say 40 years ago when we started out with pong and you had like you know rectangles Bing a rectangle to each other um and uh and now we've got photorealistic 3D simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously or 3D games with millions of people playing simultaneously um that are just getting better now we've got uh virtual reality headsets so you can just put it on and it feels like you're right there um you'll have um haptic feedback meaning force feedback uh sticks so you can actually pick up something and feel like you're picking up something like you know have haptic gloves um and if if you extrapolate that advancement

um at at any rate at all like if you say okay let's say it's it slows down by a factor of 100 starting right now okay so then then then I mean the video games will be distinguishable from reality in let's say you know 200 years instead of 20 years or something like that uh but you don't think that we're in a game right now okay well that's this is this like we all somebody has a joystick somewhere else in some other you know where I'm going with it certainly doesn't feel like that I mean I don't I don't I don't think I'm being played by somebody in a video game but then people in video games don't generally think that I I certainly think if you talk to people who use the latest virtual reality equipment in sort of a big space where they sort of map like

benches in the space to benches in the game and the environment you know they have this experience when they do that for the first time and they take it off and then they just fre freeze for 10 seconds and and you can and then you talk to them and it's clear that like they their belief that this is actual reality has been shaken because they were so convinced in virtual reality that that was real and so if I can take this off like why aren't there other layers I also think it ties interestingly back to to the fmy Paradox yeah um exactly you know if if it is a simulation sort of that would be a pretty good answer for why there are no aliens how far are we away from sort of virtual reality being a thing all of us sort of live in to some degree we would

go to this conference we would go to this conference uh from our VR sets I mean I do think there there's still something to actually really being there in person um that that we probably won't lose for for a long time hopefully never uh but um I mean with with what uh Oculus and valve are coming out with um and I believe some of that that like the first VR headsets are doe out um early next year yeah like in the next several months um and and the demos that that I've seen and I think Sam's probably seen too are incredibly compelling um and there is that strange feeling because you you you put the headset on in like a very nondescript Bland room and and you you put the headset on and suddenly you're in anywhere like you could be yeah you know I got this

demo where they would like blow air on you when you like got near a cliff Edge and when you walk near a fire they would turn on a heater and you don't see any of this cuz you're just wearing it and then and it's it's really quite quite compelling um I want to talk about something else that's compelling which is Tesla it's really nice talk about the X it's an SUV um it's an SUV but here's what I was going to say $132,000 how many people really going to buy this thing um yeah so the the the F the first cars that are produced are fully the sort of fully optioned version so it's not like a base price of you know 132,000 it's um and we'll have a version that's still expensive on the expensive side but before any incentives would be about 75k next year um and

um you know with incentives and whatnot it's you know maybe 65 so it's it's it's still expensive but it's not as crazy as 132 um the and and then in in a couple years we should have the uh model 3 um and that'll be starting price of um $35,000 so it's a smaller car but it's you know um a lot more affordable okay so for the Tesla uh sort of real efficient AOS who follow you on Twitter you need to you need to answer one thing which is last week somebody tweeted at you I think about the X and then you put out a tweet that mentioned uh the Y and the three and then you deleted the Tweet yes this and everybody wants to know why you deleted the tweet and what the Tweet actually said um I no I think I think it was it just said something like the there'll be the

model 3 and the model y um and that one of them will have like a faling door which is like pretty obviously the model y um so um the but I I I deleted that and like I don't know a dozen other tweets because I S it had like kind of a rambling Twitter history um but it was had no significance the delete has no significance like I don't think deleting a tweet like makes it go away from the Internet or something so why why delete the tweet I just didn't like what the way my Twitter history looked it was uh it was like too rambling you've invested in Twitter I'm I'm in Twitter in Tesla yeah you own a Tesla yeah make the case for those who are out there you I make it harder because he has to do it now why what what is this going to become in your mind you sure

you don't want him to answer yeah we know what he's going to say look I mean I think as most people who own one think it's the best car like out there uh I had a roadster before a Tesla Roadster which was not the best car um but the model S really is like it's just it's the best car on the market and I think that uh people think of this like existing car companies uh but actually this is like a software company with a car attached to it and it's you know you just like you sort of point and click you like point the wheel somewhere you push the thing down and it just kind of gets there it doesn't make noise it like it's very reliable the software actually works it's the only car with good software so I think people really like it now yeah it's like really

expensive still but uh I think uh well I'm confident that a mass Market Tesla will do very well and I also think the other electric cars I've driven feel like many years behind right uh you talked about this being a software company do you think of yourself as a software company I think we're software and a hardware company um but but the software component does become increasingly important um so you got to get both right um because it's you know it's a holistic product experience but um uh it it softwares increasingly the you know an increasing proportion of the problem particularly as you get to autonomy um and um yeah so so there is a view I don't know if it's a conspiracy theory that you are building autonomous functionality and other driverless

like functionality into the car without advertising that it's in there and that one day you going to flip a switch and the car is going to start just driving um well uh no not quite like that but we are going to upload new software soon and and we this is not actually a secret or anything um we we have version seven of our software which turns on um Highway autopilot so the car will be able to steer by itself on on highways or or any kind of um any kind of road that doesn't have really steep sharp curve curves on it um and um and then also it'll steer quite well in in traffic so those are the two scenarios where it'll it's think going to be quite good at steering um and and and we'll that that's in public beta right now so we have um I don't know 600

or 700 uh Tesla drivers owners that are um testing the uh aut steer software and and yeah go ahead I think full self-driving cars and not Tesla specifically just in general are are likely to get here much more quickly than people realize yeah I absolutely you ask most people they'd still say it's 10 to 20 years away uh and I actually think we'll have sort of like full point too autonomous driving uh in a in a few years it won't be uncomon few years like two or three years three or four maybe know better I agree I think that's something on the on the two to three year time frame is likely for for it to be technologically I mean you you'll be able to demonstrate it um but it you won't be able to go to fully autonomous until you get reg regulatory approval

so there's there's a there's a time difference between when it is technologically possible um in a general sense um you know so that you know not not just like in a very tightly mapped situation like say Mountain View or paloalto right but in the general sense of like you know can it can it do point to point virtually anywhere right um I think that's that's only you know two to three years away um but but then approval of from Regulators of of uh having it be autonomous is anywhere from I don't know one to 5 years after that depending upon the location because The regul Regulators have to be convinced that it is substantial I think they'll they'll want to see that it's significantly more uh sign significantly safer than than cars that are driven by people

I want to open it up in about 5 minutes so I just have a couple more questions uh to get to you and so if you guys have a question in the audience uh get your shot on goal in just a second I want to talk about entrepreneurship because both of you are entrepreneurs you invest in them you are one and you think about this a lot uh your old pal Peter teal likes to say that he would not invest in somebody who's over the age of 30 years old that that it should be the cut off you're 44 now he's invested in you yeah I guess make some exception but you may be the exception to the rule as some as somebody who invests in companies every day do you think there's a cut off there's a lot of people out here who are over the age of 30 are we done uh I mean we've said

this before but when we've looked at our data uh the the mean age of entrepreneurs we fund is just around 29 or 30 um so there's obviously lots of over 30 entrepreneurs that we fund um some of which have gone on to create multi-billion dollar companies so I think certainly you can't say it's impossible for people over 30 to create companies that's that's ridiculous uh and we plan to continue to invest in people of all ages um the correlation that we've noticed is that uh if you look at the really successful companies we've had the multi-billion dollar companies the the average for those average age for those Founders does skew significantly younger but the success rate of founders of you know this binary is the company a success or not excuse older than

30 so you know younger entrepreneurs I think tend to take bigger risks uh maybe they're willing to work on these very longtime Horizon projects but that's the only correlation we see I think it would be a crazy strategy to say I'm never going to invest in anyone over 30 yeah no I mean I think I think it's I don't think Peter meant that either yeah I mean you you can definitely start a company at any age and be successful I mean it's really just question of like do you you know do you have a good idea are you working really hard are you able to attract a great team and motivate the team um and that uh I mean that that's sort of really what what matters but you've had multiple ideas and there's there's another view by the way which is that you can only

really have one great idea right that everybody sort of has maybe maybe one great idea it's not really the idea you know I mean like there's that old saying it's 1% inspiration I I think and 99% postp spiration I think it's generally true I mean a lot of times like companies start out with with with uh an idea that's actually wrong um but they they adapt uh quickly enough to get it to something that that's right right um and I can say like at the beginning of Tesla we started out with uh we started the company with two false premises like that would turn out to be like really dumb um uh one was that uh we'd be able to uh license the drivetrain uh technology from a company called AC propulsion in Southern California and that it would just work that didn't

that totally didn't work um and then we also thought we'd be able to adapt the Lotus Elise chassis at low cost um and be able to essentially put the AC propulsion drivetrain technology in a Lotus at leas chassis and then just build that quickly and um and sell it and that it would that that would be okay um but but like I said the AC propulsion technology did not lend itself to uh any any kind of cost-effective reliable car um it was okay for like a small prototype but not not for a commercial product and and the uh and then the Lotus Elise um that that ended up worse than if we had designed a car from from the beginning um because we ended up uh changing like 96% of the components in the car um and invalidating all of the crash results and all the safety

stuff the car ended up being 30% heavier had to be longer um and it ended up being like like if you if you want if you had a house in mind and instead of actually building that house from scratch you got some existing house and ended up knocking everything except one wall in the basement out um and and it would have been better to just build the house from the beginning the the house you wanted so so so basically Tesla was started on the basis of two dumb ideas um and um but we managed to you know it was a tough one to overcome those two two issues but we we managed to get get past them that's so that's I think the more important thing is like start somewhere and then you know really be prepared to question your assumptions fix what you did wrong and

uh adapt to reality how did you run two companies at the same time Jack dorsy is about to take this on in a meaningful way what is what does a day in the life of Elon Musk actually look like yeah I wouldn't recommend running two companies uh this is um it really it decreases your freedom um quite a lot so um and and I'll tell you what so my day is probably a bit different than people think it is I me most of my time is actually spent on um engineering and design so that's probably I don't know like 70% of my time um like press stuff like this is maybe two or 3% of my time it's really really tiny um and I'm going to reduce it even further it's probably like 1% of my time so uh real quick and then we'll go to the audience politics I want to ask you two

political questions one is innovation in politics when when do you think there'll ever be a day where we actually vote on our phone um we stupidly seem to still go and vote uh you know in our local District often times at a local school and I also wanted to get your sense of uh who out there you may or may not like right now in terms of what you guys do and who who you think might do the best all right I'll take the first question Elon can answer the second um Trump's amazing uh I I think that yes we will someday vote on our phones I think it it like and it will have a significant impact because it'll really change people who vote so I think that may take a while because there are a lot of people who don't want to see the electorate change but uh you

know over a 20year time frame I always try to think about things over these sort of you know 10 or 20 year time frames I think you can get so caught up in the what's happening this month or next year are we in a bubble are we buying at a low tick or a high tick but but eventually it's going to happen and I take soless in that anyway Elon on Donald Trump yeah he asked you um I mean and I don't really have uh strong feelings except that I you know hopefully Trump doesn't foret the nomination of you know the Republican party that's because I think that's um yeah that wouldn't be good um so but I mean bar Diller said he would move out of the country what about you really no I would move I mean I think like at most he would get the Republican nomination but

I think that was still be a bit embarrassing so um I think that could happen yeah um you think it will happen it could it won't surprise me if it does yeah um I honestly don't have strong feelings about the do you get involved in politics um I get involved in politics to the as little as possible yeah there sometime I have there's some amount that I have to get involved in um mostly because SpaceX has to battle Boeing and locked um you know for National Security and and civil space launch contra s so if we don't if we don't battle them then you know then they will we'll lose how corrupt is that whole thing yeah um well I mean the the I mean actually would say that on on balance I guess it's it's not that corrupt because if if it was corrupt then SpaceX

would have no chance um because SpaceX um I mean it's got it's gotten a bit bigger these days but it was very tiny um when when we won our first govern contract and if if it had been like deeply corrupt then we would not have won anything um so you know I think you know I think actually at the the the greater the level of visibility politically the the the less corruption occurs so um I think there's actually probably like the least corruption at the presidential level than at the Senate level in the house and then that there can be a bit more corruption at the state level U it's like basically how much attention are people paying that that that defines how much corruption occurs right um yeah you know perhaps and we'll open up to but it got me thinking

the only real big critique of some of your businesses is that they are subsidized to some degree by the government could these businesses succeed without government help um yeah absolutely the the the um and I should at some point I should probably write a rebuttal because there was like nonsensical LA Times article from which a lot of this stems um because what what the LA Times article did was add up um all incentives that Tesla has received and all inent incentives that Tesla will receive so like over a 30-year period and made it made it sound like a big number um but it's you know um like if somebody's earning $50,000 a year you don't say you don't call them a millionaire because over the next 20 years they will cumulatively earn a million do but

that's effectively what that article uh did um the incentives I think for for Tesla and Solar City what they really do is balance out the um the the the actual and de facto incentives that carbon producing um activities have so and I don't think they actually balance it out so the carbon producing activities still sort of overwhelm um the incentives that electric cars and solar receivers I mean for example there's a 20% um tax incentive for stripper oil well um like and the the incentive for solar is currently 30% but dropping to 10% uh in two years right so the you know two years the incentive for solar power will be half that of a stripper oil well right so you know uh and and SpaceX made it in in in spite of boing lock receiving a billion dollar plus

uh subsidy for the launch activities so I think in the case of SpaceX it was sort of success in spite of incentives uh and in the case of Solar City and Tesla it was the incentives were you know moderately helpful but not not the deciding factor they they're they're Catalyst they made things happen a little FAS than they would otherwise happen but um you know you look at something like the like the there's a $7,500 tax credit for uh EVS um Okay so that ends up being a 10% uh discount that the consumer receives for buying the car it's it's not like night and day difference okay we got a lot of people uh who are standing and we want to get to all the questions we're going to sort of try to do this rapid fire so I'd ask you to keep your question short and

these guys are going to keep their answers short uh as well at least we're going to Hope goad hi my name is uh Bruce Gman I'm a private investor in Toronto Canada and Elon if you're not happy with the next election you're more than welcome to come back to Canada um question is about artificial intelligence like any good good new technology people always fear the change and things that can go wrong I was wondering if Sam and Elon could share with us their positive vision of ai's impact on our coming life right we didn't even get to AI in this whole conversation yeah I I think look there is a really positive Vision here right I think there are the science fiction version is either that we enslave it or it enslaves us but there's this uh Happy symbiotic

Vision which I don't think is the default case but what we should work towards I think already um humans and AI are Co evolving and no one's paid attention to this yet but I don't think there's any human left that understands all of how Google search results are ranked on that first page it really is machine learning algorithm so when we search on Google it's an AI deciding what we should see um when a dating site matches two people together there's a machine learning algorithm that no human understands how it works that is getting people together that then have babies and so in in effect you know you have this like machine learning algorithm breeding humans and so really I mean you do um and so there's this and then you know those people like work on

the algorithms later and so I think the happy vision of the future is sort of humans in Ai and a symbiotic relationship distributed AI where it sort of empowers a lot of different individuals not this single AI that kind of governs everything that we all do that's you know a million times smarter a million times smarter than any other entity so I think that's what we should work towards I agree with what Sam said um I mean we are effectively already um a human machine Collective symbiote um like there's like we're like a like a giant cyborg um that that's actually what Society is today um you know but but I'm going to sort of obviously I mean have an affinity for the human portion of that cyborg Collective um and um I think I do think we need to be careful

about the development of AI and make sure it is ultimately beneficial to humanity that it's uh that that the future is good question over here okay uh so not too long ago oh my name is Jessica sing by the way but not too long ago on the nightly show with Larry Wilmore they had Bill n the Science Guy on there discussing the new uh Mars Discovery and the other P panelists basically said that our society doesn't care about the scientific discoveries of NASA and how does uh Innovation uh what does that mean in a society that only values the results like the final products like a car or like finally going to space and not really valuing the process proc of getting there well I mean I do I do think that there is I'm not sure I agree with that I me I think we

do value Discovery and and new things um and and learning about the Universe um I mean there was quite a bit of attention paid to the discovery of of water flowing on Mars um I mean I'd certainly say that it should be more but um I think it's okay I think it's not bad I think we're I think we're better off than than that the show would suggest okay yeah okay we're going to try to get everybody up there if we can so go ahead question for Elon I I understand that the hyperloop was inspired by your opinions about California's High-Speed Rail uh and could you share those opinions as well as a bit about the hyperloop um yeah just um if if if we're to have a um some new form of Transport in California which I think is would be good to have then we want to we

want to Aspire to have something that is um Cutting Edge technology um and um when when I was reading about the highspeed rail plan um it's it's a lot of money for something which isn't obviously compelling relative to a car or a plane um in terms of the time it would take to complete the journey um and and it will will settle California taxpayers with a pretty significant amount of money that they got to pay so um so it's like if you pay if you pay a high price you should have a a great outcome like that should be the sensible thing um and that that doesn't seem to be what what is happening from what I can tell um and so I was trying to think well what what would be the the fastest way you could get from say LA to San Francisco or cities in between um

and um uh ended up mentioning that I had the an idea actually had a toour not unlike this and then and then discovered my initial idea didn't work and then kept iterating um with a with a bunch of other people and uh came up with a hyperloop so that's sort of where where it actually it finally did work from a technical standpoint um and now there are some companies pursuing that which is awesome and I hope we see some I hope we see it come to fruition um SpaceX is is um doing a a hyperloop student comp ition um that um where where uh teams will compete to see who can make the best pod um and um and so we're doing a sort of a mile long uh hyperloop uh section uh in La um just right near SpaceX really whone technically but LA County um and um and so I think

that's going to be pretty exciting to see what the students can come up with and here can come up with the most advanced pod design um and uh I I think we're going to set it so that like like like the winner would be who can get their pod to go the fastest within a on M section and like then have like a big crash area at the end um like so if the pod doesn't slow down in time can sort of get into the crash area you know I think that'll be quite an exciting competition we had a couple more seconds we'll grab it thank you hello my name is Bish I'm a computer science student at Stanford and so far west majority of startups we heard here today or the ones we hear on the news are brilliant Innovations on business models that are supported by technology but

on the other hand the ones that are based on true Technical Innovations are kind of limited that we have a few examples here I want to ask Sam why do you think that might be the case and as a followup to that to Elon do you think you'll be able to successfully build Tesla or SpaceX if there if they were your first Ventures and if you were looking funding for them out there so I I I think that a lot of people talk about how you know no one's working on anything interesting we're all just doing software the world is like really shitty it's getting worse it's the end of progress and I've never agreed with this I think so two-part answer one I I actually think we're on an incredible pace of innovation what's happening as what happens historically is that

when there's a great opportunity sort of talent sashes around and finds that and there's been incredible progress in software in the last couple of decades there will be more and so a lot of talented people are choosing to work on it but that doesn't mean we're not making press it just means this one area is like transforming the world incredibly quickly people are doing other things as well as you mentioned and you know at y combinator we fund companies doing a lot of things here's the issue the Press loves to write about the software companies and they have very little interest in writing about the other stuff and so as an outsider you would say well there's only software um but that just doesn't reflect reality you know we fund companies doing all

sorts of things and I think we love funding Tech we love funding technological innovation on a long time scale the Press does not love covering it um and also I think there's nothing wrong with working on software um yeah I think for SpaceX and Tesla are probably not the the ideal companies to have as the first uh thing um I mean generally because like um if something is capital intensive um it's really hard to get going um because is it true that you totally ran out of money supporting those two companies yeah wow so I guess that would not have been a good first no um I mean the the thought I had in the beginning was um I'm like I'm not really an investor I just like basically invest in the companies that I help create and I thought you know coming out

of PayPal um I sort of I said I thought I'd invest like half the money in SpaceX and Tesla and Solar City and um and then I still have the other half left over except that doesn't really work out cuz then the recession of 2008 and 2009 came along and it was a choice of either invest everything um or the companies would definitely die so it's like if I invest everything then they might live um and if I don't invest everything then they're definitely going to die so ended up investing any investing everything and it was real tight actually um in fact like the the Tesla financing round at the end of 2008 um I remember quite well because that we we closed that financing round on the last hour of the last day that was possible it was 6:00 p.

m.

Christmas Eve 2008 um and we would have gone bankrupt like 2 days after Christmas if we hadn't closed that round um yeah that was hard okay uh we got to wrap up final question for both of you but I'm going to start with Elon with this uh your pal Larry Page once said that uh rather than give all of his money to charity he would prefer to give all of his money to you he might have changed his mind so my question for both of you is where do you want to where who would you give all of your money to or what would you give all of your money to um well I mean my expectation is uh I mean I I want to sort of continue the um the path of establishing a self-sustaining City on Mars I think that's an important thing that needs to happen um and um and then also sustainable

energy sustainable transport uh and then education uh and um Pediatric Healthcare those are like the areas that I mean that's essentially where all all my money is going sort of the good thing about why combinator is I get to pour all of my money back into the Technologies I believe in uh so I I would keep doing that and Larry Page will give your money to you uh Elon Musk Sam Sam Alman thank you guys