机器翻译,已尽力保留原意与数字
内容摘要
马斯克关于Tesla创纪录的2022年第三季度业绩、利润率、自由现金流和需求前景的开场发言。
Musk's opening remarks on Tesla's record Q3 2022 quarter, margins, free cash flow and demand outlook.
中文实录Transcript
1 个段落
第 1 段
所以,简单回顾一下第三季度,第三季度在许多层面上又是一个创纪录的季度。我们行业领先的营业利润率达到了17%,第三季度自由现金流超过30亿美元,过去12个月接近90亿美元。随着我们的工厂提升产能,我们期待一个破纪录的第四季度。所以,真的,你知道,但愿好运,看起来,看起来我们将迎来一个极其精彩的年末。因此,就产能提升而言,第四季度看起来非常好。柏林超级工厂实现了又一个里程碑,单周生产了2,000辆汽车,质量非常好,而且正在迅速提升产能。耶格奥斯汀或得州超级工厂应该很快就会到达斯迈尔中心。事实上,就在昨天,我们根据昨天的保持率进行了外推。结果会是2000。我们第三季度的4680电芯产量较上一季度增长了2倍。我们终于在4680电芯方面迅速取得了进展,其产量正在快速增长,我们预计将开始把它整合进汽车,并让它成为。我认为在未来几个月里,它将在我们德州这里的生产中占据很大一部分。我们在德州还有用于4680电芯的第2代制造设备,它与我们最初位于弗里蒙特的试验线一道,继续展现出巨大进展。弗里蒙特工厂团队在第三季度再次创下产量纪录,我们打算继续提高弗里蒙特工厂的产量。关于 Autopilot,在,在9月底,我们举办了第2次 AI 日活动,展示了 Optimus 机器人的首个原型、我们的 dojo 训练计算机的最新进展,以及全自动驾驶软件的大量改进。我们的车辆目前已在全自动驾驶测试版模式下行驶了近60英里,而且这一数字还在继续呈指数级增长。我们举办那次 AI 日的目标是,是招聘,而我们已经看到了世界级人工智能工程师和科学家的简历大量涌入。所以,它在一些全球最优秀的 AI 研究人员中激起了极大的兴趣。我怎么强调这一点的重要性都不为过,因为我认为,世界上最聪明的 AI 技术专家终于已经清楚地认识到,Tesla 是其中最优秀的公司之一。所以,本季度我们预计将在北美广泛发布完全自动驾驶测试版。因此,任何订购了完全自动驾驶测试版的人,完全自动驾驶都将在今年获得 FSD 测试版项目的使用权限,可能大约从现在起 1 个月后。所以,然后显然,任何新……任何购买汽车并购买完全自动驾驶选装项的人,都将立即可以使用它。所以,我们看到,当车辆处于 FSD 模式时,其安全性实际上显著高于我们所看到的安全性。高于它不处于该模式时。这是进入广泛测试版阶段的一个关键门槛。让我们看看,关于需求,最近几周我们收到了很多有关需求的问题。我怎么强调都不为过。我们第四季度的需求非常旺盛,而且在我们所能预见的未来,我们预计生产的每一辆车都能卖出去。所以工厂正在全速运转,我们生产的每一辆车都交付了,同时保持着强劲的营业利润率。我们在道路上行驶的车辆总数中所占的比例仍然非常小。在道路上行驶的20亿辆轿车和卡车中,我们只有大约350万辆。所以,即使要达到全球车队的1%,我们也还有很长的路要走。让我看看,根据我的什么人?这基于很多因素,但当然也包括我在 Twitter 上收到的有关股票回购的问题,而且我认为我们的每一位董事会成员都收到过有关股票回购的问题。这个我们已经在董事会层面广泛讨论了股票回购的想法。董事会总体认为,进行股票回购是合理的,但我们希望按照正确的流程来进行股票回购。不过,即使在明年的下行情景下,我们也完全有可能进行规模约为50亿至100亿美元的股票回购。即使明年是非常困难的一年,我们仍然有能力进行50亿至100亿美元的股票回购。这显然有待董事会审议和批准,因此我们很可能会进行一些有意义的股票回购。所以总而言之,尽管市场主题围绕短期,但关注长期非常重要。对于投资者,我再怎么强调这一点都不为过,而且我认为长期投资者显然认识到了这一点。Tesla 有局部的起伏,但长期趋势一直极其良好。几年前我曾说过,我想是在一次财报电话会议上,我认为 Tesla 有可能比苹果更有价值,苹果当时是市场上我认为最高的猫公司。而苹果的时间,我想大约是7000亿美元。我当时说,这需要令人难以置信的执行力,至少还需要一些运气。而我们确实没有做到这一点。Tesla 事实上曾一度超过苹果的市值,而我现在认为,我们可以远远超过苹果目前的市值。事实上,我看到了一条潜在路径,可以让 Tesla 的价值超过苹果和沙特阿美的总和。所以,这并不意味着它一定会发生,也不意味着这会很容易;事实上,我认为这会非常困难。需要大量工作、一些极具创意的新产品、妥善管理的扩张,而且始终还需要一点运气。但这是第一次,我看到,我看到了一条让 Tesla 达到,比如说,大约沙特阿美2倍市值的路径。我认为那是。我此前还不太看到这一点。我的意思是,这是我第一次看到这种潜力。所以,我的意思是,我们拥有令人难以置信的产品组合。我认为,在地球上的所有公司中,我们拥有最令人兴奋的产品组合,其中一些你们已经听说过,一些你们还没有听说过。我们正处于 Cybertruck 的最后实验室阶段。我们正在得州奥斯汀超级工厂建设 Cybertruck 生产线,并且在自动驾驶出租车平台设计方面取得了很大进展。还有。关于电池,我们正以尽可能快的速度推进,朝着必须在美国实现每年1000吉瓦时垂直整合生产能力的目标前进。所以,负极、正极、锂精炼,我们正在全速推进这些工作。所以我认为,未来令人无比兴奋,确实是一个前所未有的未来。但如果没有我们在 Tesla 的这支不可思议的团队,这一切都不可能实现。所以,我要特别感谢我们所有的工厂员工、工程师、高管以及整个 Tesla 团队。你们太棒了。正是你们让这一切成为现实。谢谢。
Paragraph 1
So just to do a Q3 recap, Q3 was another record quarter on many levels. We had our industry leading operating margin reach 17% and our free cash flow surpassed 3 billion in Q3 and approached $9 billion in the past 12 months. As our factories ramp, we're looking forward to a record breaking Q4. So it really, you know, knock on wood, it looks, looks like we'll have an epic end of year. So Q4 is looking extremely good on the production ramp. Giga Berlin achieved another milestone of 2,000 cars made in a week with very good quality and it's ramping rapidly. Jaeger Austin or Giga Texas should reach the Smile center very soon. In fact, just yesterday we extrapolated yesterday's hold rate. It would be 2000. Our production of 4680 cells has tripled in Q3 compared to the previous quarter. We are finally gaining rapid traction on the 4680 cell and its output is growing rapidly and we expect it to start incorporating in cars and having it be. I see a significant portion of our production here in Texas in the coming months. We also have our second generation of manufacturing equipment for 4680 cells in Texas which continues to show great progress along with our original pilot line, Fremont. The Fremont factory team once again reached record production in Q3 and we intend to keep raising production in Fremont. Regarding Autopilot, at the end of, at the end of September we hosted our second AI day and showed the first prototype of our Optimus robot, the latest updates on our dojo training computer and wide range of improvements of full self driving software. Our vehicles have now driven nearly 60 miles in full self driving beta mode and this number continues to grow exponentially. Our goal with that AI day was to was recruiting and we've seen a massive influx of world class artificial intelligence engineer and scientists resume. So it generated a tremendous amount of interest from some of the best AI researchers in the world. I can't emphasize the importance of this enough because I think finally has become clear to the smartest AI technologists in the world that Tesla is among the very best. So this quarter we expect to go to a wide release of Full self driving Beta in North America. So anyone who has ordered full self driving Beta, full self driving will have access to the FSD beta program this year, probably about a month from now. So and then obviously any new anyone who buys a car and purchases a full self driving option will immediately have that available to them. So the safety that we're seeing when the car is in fsd mode is actually significantly greater than the safety we're seeing. Than what when it is not. Which is a key threshold for going to a wide beta. Let's see, with respect to demand, we've got a lot of questions about demand in recent weeks. I can't emphasize enough. We have excellent demand for Q4 and we expect to sell every car that we make for as far into the future as we can see. So the factories are running at full speed and we're delivering every car we make and keeping operating margins strong. We're still a very small percentage of the total vehicles on the road. Of the 2 billion cars and trucks on the road, we only have about three and a half million. So we've got a long way to go to even reach 1% of the global fleet. Let's see, based on my what people? Based on many things, but certainly questions I get on Twitter about buybacks and I think every one of our board members has gotten questions about buybacks. The we've debated the buyback idea extensively at the board level. The board generally thinks that it makes sense to do a buyback, but we want to work through the right process to do a buyback. But it is certainly possible for us to do a buyback on the order of five to $10 billion even in a downside scenario next year. Even if next year is a very difficult year, we still have the ability to do a five to $10 billion buyback. This is obviously pending board review and approval, so it's likely that we'll do some meaningful buyback. So in conclusion, while the market themes revolve around the short term, it's very important to focus on the long term. I can't emphasize this enough with investors and I think long time investors obviously recognize this. With Tesla you have your local ups and downs, but long term trend has been extremely good. And several years ago I said, I think on an earnings call that I thought it was possible for Tesla to be worth more than Apple, which was then the highest cat company I think on the market. And Apple's time I think it was around $700 billion. And I said it required incredible execution, at least some luck. And we didn't indeed achieve that. Tesla went in fact our past Apple's market cap time and I now am of the opinion that we can far exceed Apple's current marked cap. In fact, I see a potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined. So now that doesn't mean it will happen or that will be easy in fact, I think it will be very difficult. Require a lot of work, some very creative new products, managed expansion, and always some luck. But for the first time, I am seeing, I see a way for Tesla to be, Let's say, roughly twice the value of Saudi Aramco. I think that's. I haven't quite seen that yet. I mean, this is the first time I'm seeing that potential. So, I mean, we have an incredible product portfolio. I think we've got the most exciting product portfolio of any company on earth, some of which you've heard about, some of which you haven't. We're in the final lab for cybertruck. We're building the cybertruck line here at Giga Texas Austin and making a lot of progress in the robo taxi platform design. And. With respect to batteries, we're moving as fast as possible to have to achieve a thousand gigawatt hours a year production capacity in the United States, vertically integrated. So anode, cathode, lithium refining, moving at a top speed to do that. So I think it's an incredibly exciting future and really an unprecedented future. But none of this would be possible without the incredible team that we have here at Tesla. So I'd like to give a huge shout out to all of our factory employees, engineers, executives and the whole Tesla team. You guys rock. You're the ones making it happen. Thank you.