机器翻译,已尽力保留原意与数字
内容摘要
马斯克和JB·斯特劳贝尔在Tesla内华达超级工厂电池厂的盛大开幕式上主持问答环节。
Musk and JB Straubel host a Q&A at the grand opening of Tesla's Nevada Gigafactory battery plant.
中文实录Transcript
39 个段落
埃隆·马斯克
我们可以,比如,也许回答几个观众的问题。当然。比如,对,就现在。现在我们没有。现在我们大约有1000人在现场工作。随着产能扩大到150吉瓦时,我们预计会获得某种效率提升。但是。但是那里可能仍然需要大约10000人工作。对。
JB·斯特劳贝尔
所有的。我们发出的所有Powerwall和Powerpack目前都是在这里制造的。所以你们身后的这栋建筑已经投入运营了。
埃隆·马斯克
抱歉。哦,对。所以回收利用。说得好。我本该提到的。所以我们实际上。我们将在超级工厂内进行回收利用。所以所有电池包都会被回收,这实际上非常合理,因为这是回收它的一种真正高效的方式,因为我们知道这个模组是什么样的。所以我们实际上可以设计出针对该电池包精确优化的回收机器。因为我们并不是要回收任何随意一种电池包。
埃隆·马斯克
我们回收的是一种已知的电池包。所以我们可以非常精确地进行回收。
JB·斯特劳贝尔
对,而且回收利用真的很棒,因为大多数人不会想到这一点,但一块锂电池,当我们制造它时,而且即使你。在你使用它15或20年之后,到那时,我们制造电池时放进去的所有材料仍然都在里面。它们没有任何一种被散布到环境中。我们没有烧掉其中任何一种。所有金属、所有有价值的材料仍然都在那里。
JB·斯特劳贝尔
而如今,当我们制造一块新电池时,材料是整个过程中最昂贵的部分。所以,如果我们能以几乎为零的成本,只需将它运到那里的成本,把同一批材料送回工厂,就有机会大幅降低这块新电芯的整体材料预算。所以,这差不多就是回收利用的未来。
埃隆·马斯克
我还应该提到,当超级工厂工厂全面运营时,它也将完全依靠可持续能源运行。所以我们使用地热能,或者说用地热进行气候控制,然后是风能,显然必须从其他地方输送过来,再加上屋顶上的太阳能。风能、地热能和太阳能的组合将为超级工厂提供全部电力。所以,对,那么有个问题是,比如,在世界其他地区建厂怎么样?
埃隆·马斯克
每个大洲至少建一座超级工厂肯定是合理的,因为否则,物流成本以及把汽车运到半个地球之外所消耗的能源都相当高。所以我们在这里会逐渐达到饱和。然后我们会在欧洲建一座工厂,在亚洲建一座工厂,嗯,在中国,也许还会在亚洲其他地区建厂。所以。
埃隆·马斯克
所以我认为,让生产贴近需求会非常合理。Sherwin,在后面,产量中用于ARLA而非太阳能的比例是多少?
埃隆·马斯克
对。那么产量中可能有多大比例用于汽车,又有多大比例用于固定式储能电池?一开始,我认为固定式储能可能大约占三分之一左右,大概是30、35%。但随着时间推移,我认为它们可能会大致持平。用于固定式储能的电池数量会和用于汽车的电池数量大致一样多。如果你做一下这种真正宏观的计算,比如,它是什么,什么是。
埃隆·马斯克
从非常高的层面来看,要让世界转向可持续能源情景需要什么,那差不多就是这个结果。汽车所需的电池容量,和固定式储能所需的电池容量大致一样多。
埃隆·马斯克
我会鼓励。对,嗯,瞬间移动,对吧。
埃隆·马斯克
Model 3进展顺利。我对目前的进展相当满意。Tesla工程团队在生产方面采取的方法让我非常兴奋。我认为Tesla内部的人确实已经把这一点铭记在心,那就是设计工厂实际上甚至比设计产品本身更重要。要大批量生产价格可负担的高质量汽车,这一点极其重要。所以我实际上对此感到非常、非常乐观。
埃隆·马斯克
我是说,我们几周前完成了设计,所以它。设计已经。对,所以设计已经完成了。通常随着测试增多,需要进行一些微调,但我们正受益于从Model S和Model X获得的大量经验。所以我对此感觉非常好。
JB·斯特劳贝尔
是的,这里面有一些非常酷的创新。我们不能谈论它内部的所有东西,但其中很多零部件和系统确实已经是第三代了,它们最初是我们为 Roadster 设计的,后来又用于 Model S 和 X。所以它已经取得了长足的进步。
埃隆·马斯克
好了,我就再回答几个问题,因为我觉得这可能会持续一阵子。
埃隆·马斯克
好的。是的,当然。哦,嘿,挪威。爱挪威。
埃隆·马斯克
您说什么?
埃隆·马斯克
用于回收的芯片。哦,船。
JB·斯特劳贝尔
哦。
埃隆·马斯克
哦,听起来像芯片。你是说船吗?船,是的。所以肯定,我是说,最终所有,你知道,所有形式的陆路运输都会实现电动化。
埃隆·马斯克
我目前预计 Tesla 不会造船,但如果没有其他人去做。
埃隆·马斯克
当然,是的。
埃隆·马斯克
所以,是的,锂的问题经常被提起。
埃隆·马斯克
锂的好处在于它非常丰富。所以锂是宇宙中第三常见的元素,第一是氢,第二是氦。现在,地球上的氢全都结合在水、水和碳氢化合物之中。所以在地球上找不到天然存在的氢。
埃隆·马斯克
然后氦作为一种惰性气体,不会与任何东西结合,基本上会飘走。但锂是一种金属,不会飘走。所以几乎任何含盐溶液中都有大量的锂。有一定量的锂。所以海洋中有大量的锂,任何一种曾经是盐湖、很久以前干涸的湖床中,都会有大量的锂。所以,世界上锂的实际数量是。
埃隆·马斯克
远远超过电气化或运输所需的数量。锂仅占大约 2% 的。电池。所以它,它,它。它被称为锂离子,但它算是活性成分。但它只占电池的约 2%。
JB·斯特劳贝尔
是的。所以有足够的锂把世界上每辆汽车都变成电动汽车。这根本不会成为限制。而且即使这件事完成之后,我们还可以开始回收利用它。所以我们不会一直消耗锂。它不像石油之类的东西。我听过很多这样的比较,比如锂峰值,这有点荒谬,因为一旦你建立起这支电动汽车车队,你。你就不再需要更多的锂了。它只是。
JB·斯特劳贝尔
你可以永远不断地重复利用和再处理它。
埃隆·马斯克
好,再问几个问题。
埃隆·马斯克
叉车电池。嗯,我们确实需要保持专注,所以短期内不会生产叉车电池,因为就是。我们需要专注于 Model 3,尤其是在短期内,然后下一个优先事项可能是一款紧凑型 SUV。我们有一个很有意思的概念,就是在 Model X 平台上打造一种类似小型巴士的车型。而且如果让 Model X 看起来有点像一辆小巴士,能装下的人数实际上相当令人惊讶。
埃隆·马斯克
所以。但是保持专注至关重要,因为可以做的事情太多了。但如果我们不专注,就会带来什么事情都做不成的风险。
埃隆·马斯克
至于你们能如何提供帮助,我想就是把这个信息传播出去。而且,你知道,那就像。我是说,我知道你们认为全球变暖是真实的。但疯狂的是,外面有很多人并不这么认为。这让我难以置信。而且你知道,福克斯化石燃料行业发起了一场不间断的宣传攻势,因为你有点,我是说,他们只是在保护自己。所以这也算是你会预料到的。
埃隆·马斯克
但是,但是他们就是,这从不停歇,而且他们拥有的资金大约是我们的 1000 倍。所以这场,我是说,这场革命将来自人民,那是,它是,你知道,所以,所以我只是想,你知道,为宣传而战。就像那是,随着美国大选以及所有那些事情的到来,局面会变得非常疯狂,伙计。
埃隆·马斯克
好的,我们再回答最后一个。
埃隆·马斯克
下一代 Roadster。嗯,我们很想做下一代 Roadster,但我们得假装。我们得专注于价格亲民的大众市场汽车。我很想做下一代 Road Oyster。你在开玩笑吗?当然。
埃隆·马斯克
但那,那得是甜点。你知道,我们,我们有,有很多
JB·斯特劳贝尔
很多,我们手头已经有很多事情要做了,但我想,我想我们最好就此结束。所以非常感谢大家。
埃隆·马斯克
这,非常感谢。我们真的很感激。
Elon Musk
We could, like, maybe take a few questions from the audience. Sure. Like, yeah, right now. Right now we have no. Right now we have about a thousand people working on site. And with the expansion to 150 gigawatt hours, we expect there will be some sort of efficiency that that's gained. But. But it's still probably on the order of 10,000 people working on that. Yeah.
JB Straubel
All the. All the power walls and power packs that we're sending out are built right here today. So that's operational in the building behind you.
Elon Musk
Sorry. Oh, yeah. So recycling. Good point. I should have mentioned. So we've actually. We'll have recycling at the gigafactory itself. So all battery packs will be recycled, which actually makes a lot of sense because this is a real efficient way to recycle it because we know what the module looks like. So we can actually design the recycling machines that are exactly optimized for the battery pack. Because we're not trying to recycle any arbitrary battery pack.
Elon Musk
We're recycling a known battery pack. So we can be really precise about the recycling.
JB Straubel
Yeah, And recycling is really awesome because most people don't think about this, but a lithium battery, when we build it, and even if you. After you use it for 15 or 20 years, at the end of that time, all of the materials that we built into the battery are still in there. None of them have been dispersed into the environment. We didn't burn any of them. All the metals, all of the interesting materials are still there.
JB Straubel
And today, when we make a new battery, materials are the most expensive part of that whole process. So if we can get that same batch of materials back into the factory for almost no cost, the cost of transporting it there, it's a chance to reduce the whole materials budget on that new cell massively. So that's kind of what the future holds for recycling.
Elon Musk
And I should mention also that when the gigafactory factory is fully operational, it will be also completely operated on sustainable energy. So we're using geothermal energy or geothermal for climate control, and then wind, which obviously has to be brought in from other places, and then solar on the roof. And the combination of the wind, geothermal and solar will completely power the gigafactory. So, Yeah, so a question is like, what about putting plants in other parts of the world?
Elon Musk
It's definitely going to make sense to have at least a gigafactory in every continent because otherwise the logistics cost and the energy taken to transport cars halfway around the world is quite high. So we'll kind of reach saturation here. And then we're going to establish a factory in Europe and a factory in Asia, well, in China and perhaps in other parts of Asia as well. So.
Elon Musk
So I think it's going to make a lot of sense to localize the production to the demand. Sherwin, back there, what percentage of the output would be for ARLA versus solar?
Elon Musk
Yeah. So what percentage of the output is likely to be for cars versus for stationary storage batteries? In the beginning, I think it's probably going to be on the order of like roughly a third stationary storage, something like that called 30, 35%. But over time, I think probably they will roughly equalize. There'll be roughly about as much as many batteries for stationary storage as there are for cars. And if you do this sort of really overarching math of like, what is it, what's.
Elon Musk
What's needed at a very high level to transition the world to a sustainable energy scenario, that that about works out. You need about as much, you need about as much battery capacity in cars as you do in stationary storage.
Elon Musk
I'd encourage. Yeah, well, teleportation, Right.
Elon Musk
Model three is going well. I'm pretty happy with how it's going. I'm really excited by the approach that the Tesla engineering team is taking to production. I think people have really taken it to heart within Tesla that it's actually even more important to design the factory than it is to design the product itself. This is extremely important for making an affordable, high quality car in volume. And so I'm actually feeling really, really optimistic about it.
Elon Musk
I mean, we completed design a couple weeks ago, so it's. Design is. Yeah, so design is done. Usually as you do more testing, there's some tweaks required, but we are benefiting from a lot of experience with the Model S and X. So I'm feeling very good about it.
JB Straubel
Yeah, there's some really cool innovations. We can't talk about all the stuff inside of it, but it is definitely a third generation of a lot of the components and a lot of the systems that we designed originally for Roadster and then Model S and X. So it's come a long way.
Elon Musk
All right, I'll just do a few more questions because I think this could go on for a while.
Elon Musk
All right. Yeah, sure. Oh, hey, Norway. Love Norway.
Elon Musk
Pardon me?
Elon Musk
Chips for recycling. Oh, ship.
JB Straubel
Oh.
Elon Musk
Oh, it's like chips. You mean ships? Ships, yes. So there's definitely, I mean, ultimately all, you know, all forms of terrestrial transport will go electric.
Elon Musk
I don't currently anticipate Tesla doing ships but if someone else doesn't do.
Elon Musk
Sure, yeah.
Elon Musk
So, yeah, the lithium question comes up quite a bit.
Elon Musk
The nice thing about lithium is it's very plentiful. So lithium is the third most common element in, in the universe, first being hydrogen, second being helium. Now the hydrogen is all bound up in water on Earth, water and hydrocarbons. So you don't find naturally occurring hydrogen on Earth.
Elon Musk
And then the helium, being a noble gas, just doesn't combine with anything and basically floats away. But lithium is a metal and does not float away. So there's an enormous amount of lithium in almost any salty solution. Some amount of lithium. So enormous amounts of lithium in the ocean, any kind of dried lake bed where there was a salt lake that dried long ago, there will be enormous amounts of lithium. So the, the actual amount of lithium in the world is.
Elon Musk
Is far in excess of what's needed for electrification or transport. Lithium only constitutes about 2% of the. The battery. So it's, it's, it's. It's called lithium ion, but it's sort of the active ingredient. But it's only about 2% of the battery.
JB Straubel
Yeah. So there's plenty of lithium to convert every car in the world to electric. That won't be a constraint at all. And even after that's done, we can start recycling it. So we won't keep using lithium. It's not like oil or something like that. I've heard a lot of those comparisons, like peak lithium, which is kind of nonsense because once you build this fleet of electric cars, you. You don't need any more of it. It's just.
JB Straubel
You can just keep reusing it and reprocessing it forever.
Elon Musk
Well, just a couple more questions.
Elon Musk
Forklift batteries. Well, we do need to focus, so we won't be doing forklift batteries in the short term because there's just. We need to kind of stay focused on the Model 3, particularly in the short term, and then probably a compact SUV is the next priority. We have an interesting concept for creating kind of like a minibus on the Model X platform. And it's actually quite surprising how many people you can get on a Model X if you make it sort of look a bit like a little bus.
Elon Musk
So. But focus is critical because there's so many things that could be done. But if we don't focus, then it puts risk that we won't get anything done.
Elon Musk
I think in terms of how can you help, I think just sort of spread the message. And, you know, that's like. I mean, I know you guys think Global warming is real. But the crazy thing is like a lot of people out there don't. It blows my mind. And you know, and there's quite, there's a nonstop propaganda campaign from the Fox fossil fuel industry because you kind of, I mean they're just defending themselves. So it's kind of what you, what you'd expect.
Elon Musk
But, but they just, it's non stop and they have like a thousand times more money than we do. So this is, I mean this revolution is going to come from the people that's, it's, you know, so, So I just like, you know, fight for propaganda. Like that's the, Things are going to get real nutty with the US election and all that, man.
Elon Musk
All right, we'll take one more.
Elon Musk
Next roadster. Well, we'd love to do the next roadster, but we got to fake. We got to focus on affordable mass market cars. I would love to do the next Road Oyster. Are you kidding me? Of course.
Elon Musk
But that's, that's got to be dessert. You know, we, there's, there's a lot
JB Straubel
of, a lot of stuff to do already on our plate, but I think, I think we better wrap it up with that. So thank you guys very much.
Elon Musk
This is, thank you very much. We really appreciate.