机器翻译,已尽力保留原意与数字
内容摘要
Tesla 2026年第二季度财务业绩网络直播——埃隆·马斯克及管理层先作预备发言,随后进行分析师和散户股东现场问答。
Tesla's Q2 2026 financial results webcast — prepared remarks from Elon Musk and management followed by the live analyst and retail-shareholder Q&A.
中文实录Transcript
111 个段落
第 1 段
大家下午好,欢迎参加Tesla 2026年第二季度问答网络直播。我叫特拉维斯·阿克塞尔罗德,是投资者关系主管,今天与我一同出席的有埃隆·马斯克、维瓦夫·蒂内贾以及其他多位高管。我们于美国中部时间下午约3点,在与本次网络直播相同的链接发布了更新资料,其中公布了我们的第二季度业绩。本次电话会议期间,我们将讨论业务展望并作出前瞻性陈述。这些评论基于我们的预测和预期。截至今天。由于多项风险和不确定性,包括我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中提到的风险和不确定性,实际事件或结果可能存在重大差异。在今天电话会议的问答环节,请将问题限制为1个问题和1个追问。请使用举手按钮加入提问队列。在开始问答之前,埃隆有一些开场发言。埃隆,
第 2 段
谢谢。那么,是的,这是一个很棒的季度。我们实现了创纪录的第二季度交付量。我相信Model Y现在,我认为它是全球各种车型中最畅销的汽车,并且正在全面创下纪录。所以它的受欢迎程度正在大幅提升,而且我们看到,在FSD获批的地区,FSD的选购率非常高。事实上,我认为对很多人来说,他们实际上买的是附带一辆车的Tesla完全自动驾驶,而不是一辆附带FSD的车。他们来到我们在美国的门店,说他们想要完全自动驾驶,基本上不管它随附的是哪款车。所以这显然是一个重要的需求驱动因素,而随着FSD在不同国家获得批准,我认为我们会看到类似的需求增长。所以,是的,这方面看起来非常好。能源业务也在以令人难以置信的速度增长,我认为它对于人工智能数据中心的规模扩张至关重要。我们正在投入大量资金发展核心业务,并真正为未来做准备。所以今年的资本支出规模巨大,但我有信心,我们投资的所有这些项目都会带来惊人的回报。确实是我们见过的最好的资本支出回报,而Tesla团队的表现也极其出色。Slabcap已经开始生产,我们也已经开始生产并在扩大。嗯,我们很快将开始生产Optimus,我们已经开始生产Tesla半挂卡车,我们很快将开始生产Megapack 3。我们已经开始通过锂精炼厂、阴极精炼厂进行生产。我们也在扩大电池单体产量,电池单体生产,而且我们还在准备大规模开展太阳能电池板。比如太阳能电池和面板生产。事实上,这一路涵盖从硅提纯到生产太阳能电池,再到部署太阳能,因为未来运输电气化和人工智能显然会带来巨大的电力需求。所以,我们正在开展我们认为有史以来最雄心勃勃的先进基础设施制造产能建设。这是件大事。至于Robotaxi,我们对Robotaxi的目标非常宏大,但我们确实需要谨慎,避免造成任何事故或伤害任何人。尽管我认为仅在美国,每年就有30至40,000人死于汽车事故。其中大多数都不会引发任何新闻报道,或者,你知道,你几乎从未真正读到过其中任何一起。但如果我们哪怕伤到1个人,那都会成为全球头条新闻,监管机构会立即限制我们的活动。而我们不想伤害任何人。所以我们正在以人类所能达到的最快速度扩大Robotaxi的规模,同时努力确保绝不伤害任何人,理想情况下甚至不要碾到1只害虫。所以真正的限制在于,我们希望尽可能快地发展Robotaxi,同时不伤害任何人。我们正在提供Robotaxi上线的实时更新。每当我们在一座城市开放服务时,都会立即在X上发布。所以,如果你只需关注X上的Tesla账号,你就会。但随着我们向新城市扩张,我们会及时向你通报。我们已经在佛罗里达州和得克萨斯州的多座城市开放,显然也包括湾区。所以我们会继续扩张,我认为速度会非常、非常快,按行驶里程计算,看起来每周增长超过10%。所以这是一个成本非常高的复合增长率。那么来看看Optimus。你知道,正如你以前听我说过的,我认为Optimus将成为有史以来最大的产品。但这是一个非常复杂的待解决问题。要制造出一个自主式人形机器人,它能完成你所说的任务,只要你叫它做某件事或给它看一段视频,它就能在无需任何编程的情况下完成任务,这是最难解决的问题之一。比如从来没有人,从来没有人实现过这一点。而且你还有。机器人的机电设计面临许多挑战,既要实现足够的灵巧性,也要非常可靠,并拥有很长的磨损寿命,意思是它需要在实际环境中工作而不发生故障。否则,你面对的就是一个倒在地上的约70公斤重的机器人,而你得像搬尸体一样把它搬出去。你知道,它没有轮子
第 3 段
而且
第 4 段
我们不希望Optimus失控。所以。要实现规模化、把设计重量做到位并扩大生产,需要大量工作。而且我确实想在这里强调,扩大生产规模的挑战非常巨大。这将是我们在Tesla制造过的、最难扩大制造规模的产品,因为机器人上的一切都是新的,而扩大生产爬坡的难度与机器人中零件的接近程度成正比。至少对于电动汽车而言,汽车中非电动动力总成的部分已有现成的供应链。所以你可以向现有供应商采购车轮、侧视镜、挡风玻璃以及诸如此类的东西,还有车身面板。但Optimus没有供应链。所以我们不得不从头建立完整的供应链,或者在内部建立。生产,而我们实际上宣布了极其大量的内容。我们正在弗里蒙特建设的Optimus生产线,取代了以前的Model SX生产线,看起来令人难以置信。我的意思是,亲眼看到它相当震撼。所以我只是想确保人们正确调整预期。它会遵循制造业生产爬坡通常的S曲线,但X曲线的初始部分会相当平缓且漫长,因为机器人中的零件都很新。
第 5 段
所以
第 6 段
你可能已经在互联网上看过很多令人印象深刻的机器人演示。但你看到的那些演示都是预编程或远程控制的。所以,目前没有任何人形机器人真正能够执行通用任务。Optimus将是第1个具备这种能力的机器人,它不只是演示品,而是在日常生活中真正有用。所以。而且Optimus的设计目标是具备完整的人类灵巧性。也就是说,它的手将拥有与人手相同水平的灵巧性,甚至高于人手,而人手是一种不可思议、不可思议的东西。你越研究人手,就越会惊叹于手是多么惊人。它不只是有可对握的拇指。我的意思是,人手运作方式中的细微之处令人惊叹,你看得越仔细,就越感到惊叹。而Optimus将具备这种能力,你会拥有人类级别、然后是超人级别的灵巧性。所以它真的会非常了不起。再看看Terrafab,你知道Terafab。我们预计很快会宣布选址,并提供有关这方面计划的更多细节;我们会把这些留到产品,某种意义上的发布公告中,而不是试图把它塞进财报电话会议。因为我认为这是一个,这是一个非常重大的公告,它值得拥有自己某种意义上的高光之日,而不是被某种意义上塞进财报电话会议。但我确实认为Terrafab将会
第 7 段
成为
第 8 段
一项了不起且必不可少的计划,没有它,我们扩大Optimus生产规模的能力将受到限制,因为我们根本不会有足够的人工智能芯片。所以解决这个问题至关重要,而为了扩大Optimus的规模,我们必须解决存储、逻辑和封装问题。
第 9 段
所以
第 10 段
不管怎样,就像我说的,我们会留到单独发布时再讲。我们已经为奥斯汀的开发晶圆厂下了设备订单,我觉得这座开发晶圆厂非常酷,因为它计划把光刻、掩模生产,以及逻辑、存储、封装和芯片测试全都集中在同一栋建筑里。这样你就能拥有非常快速的迭代周期,可以非常迅速地尝试新的芯片设计,看看它们是否有效。我认为地球上任何地方都不存在这样的建筑。所以,当我们在 AI 芯片上尝试一些令人兴奋、大胆、高风险、高回报的押注时,这真的会超级有帮助。正如我所说,它们主要聚焦于 Optimus。比如,我们怎样才能让 Optimus 尽可能有用?然后我们还有,比如我们有数字 Optimus,它基本上是在驾驶电脑屏幕,我想你可以称之为电脑使用之类的东西,但驾驶电脑屏幕的方式和你驾驶汽车一样。所以对汽车来说,它算是像素输入或光子输入、控制输出,而 Optimus 数字乐观主义者也是如此。它是光子输入、控制输出。所以我们有信心,可以调整我们为自动驾驶汽车开发的同一套 Tesla AI 技术,用来实现自动驾驶的电脑屏幕,或者本质上是自动驾驶的电脑。所以在这台自动驾驶电脑中,Tesla,这款成本非常低的 Tesla AI 4 电脑,可以处理它们正在执行的所有这类短期任务,实时对电脑屏幕进行视频控制。所以它不是截图那种东西,而是实时视频和高帧率。而数字乐观主义者显然会对实体乐观主义者很重要,因为实体 Optimus 需要能够操作电脑。它不能走到一块触摸屏前却不知道该做什么。它必须具备通用的触摸屏和电脑使用能力。所以这看起来很有希望。而这是与 SpaceX 合作开展的。SpaceX 很广泛,是某种大模型,有点像那个。数字 Optimus 的管理者,并在某种程度上告诉数字乐观主义者要做什么,为它提供一系列任务,然后数字乐观主义者去执行那些任务。我们也在打造一种 Megapod 设计,其中有搭配 x86 的、用于电脑的 Tesla AI。也就是把 x86 电脑和 Tesla AI 4 电脑配对装在一个箱体中。箱体里装着这个数字 Optimus,而 Megapod 有点像 Megapack 的封装方式。所以从本质上说,我们把大量 AI4/x86 组合装进一个巨型箱体里。而这些箱体可以部署在国内任何地方,也可以部署在国外。这样一来,我们就能利用分散的电力生产来扩展 AI 算力。所以世界各地有很多地方都可以部署,包括我们的超级充电站。我想我们的超级充电站拥有大约 7 吉瓦的电力,而且还在增长。我们可以在许多这样的超级充电站部署 Megapod,为 AI 提供分布式电力。所以我认为那可能会是一件相当重大的事情。总之,我们对自己的自动驾驶和机器人路线图感到无比兴奋。还有太多了不起的东西即将到来。就像我说的,很难全塞进一次财报电话会议里,但我们会发布许多产品公告,而今年对 Tesla 来说将是很棒的一年。我认为会是我们有史以来最好的一年之一。然后我认为明年甚至会更好。所以最后,我要感谢 Tesla 团队的出色执行,也感谢我们所有支持者在澳大利亚加入我们。谢谢。
第 11 段
很好。
第 12 段
非常感谢,埃隆。现在 Vaibhav 将发表一些开场讲话。
第 13 段
谢谢你,Travis。第二季度延续了我们在第一季度末看到的趋势,即全球各地的汽车需求回升。我们创下了全球第二季度交付量纪录,美洲、亚太地区以及欧洲、中东和非洲地区的交付量环比分别增长60%、27%和12%。此外,Model Y在包括荷兰、澳大利亚和新西兰在内的几个关键市场创下纪录。Tesla团队努力以合理的价格打造具有自动驾驶能力的引人注目的产品,如今正在取得成果。第二季度结束时,我们的订单积压量达到2023年以来的最高水平。因此,我们正专注于提高所有工厂的产量,以满足这一不断增长的需求。产量增长将受限于我们的供应链。这不仅包括电池,还包括电子元件。我们以前遇到过这种情况,而一如既往,我们的Tesla团队正在积极努力,通过与供应商达成战略协议来消除前方的障碍。正如埃隆提到的,汽车需求的关键因素之一一直是FSD。我们的销售数据显示,人们前来并了解这款车的主要原因之一是FSD。第二季度,在北美,我们约55%的交付车辆在交付时启用了FSD订阅。总体而言,FSD附加率继续提高,全球付费客户接近150万,其中55%为预先购买,其余45%为订阅。随着我们取消购买选项,我们预计FSG变现增长的大部分将来自订阅。在大多数市场,剔除监管积分后的汽车业务利润率从19.2%环比下降至16.3%。提醒一下,我们曾在第一季度强调,保修、true downs和部分关税减免带来了2.3亿的收益,而这些收益在第二季度没有再次出现。排除上一季度这些收益的影响后,我们剔除积分的汽车业务毛利率本应大致持平。这体现了Tesla团队有效的定价和成本管理;在我们继续推动需求的同时,大宗商品价格上涨和利率变化都在继续增加我们的成本。请注意,利率补贴成本会作为收入抵减项预先确认。因此,随着今年利率上升,补贴成本也随之上升,对汽车业务利润率产生了负面影响。正如我们此前指出的,能源业务本身就具有波动性。部署与客户的时间安排挂钩,而且很大程度上不受我们控制。第二季度,我们部署了13.5 GWh的储能,环比增长53%,成为能源业务规模第二大的季度。尽管有所增长,能源业务毛利率仍从39.5%下降至20.4%。利润率下降是多种动态因素共同作用的结果。首先,本季度有一笔约2.4亿的保修调整,与我们早期部署项目所使用的某些供应商电芯问题有关。此外,我们在第一季度确认的超过2亿的关税收益没有再次出现;最后,我们此前曾指引,随着竞争日益加剧,工业储能的ASPS正在下降。从长期来看,我们认为能源业务的毛利率应正常化至20%区间的中低段。该业务的订单积压量强劲,我们正尽最大努力根据现有需求以及未来需求进行建设。我们预计,未来需求将来自数据中心增长和整体经济的电气化。服务及其他业务利润率从9.2%环比提高至14.1%,创历史新高。这主要得益于业务量增长,以及对支持二手车、超级充电、服务中心和保险等业务的车队实施了更好的成本管理。尽管目前微不足道。这项业务还包括我们正在进行的基础设施专项投资,这些投资将有助于未来扩大Robotaxi的规模。我们继续扩大Tesla Robotaxi车队,并已扩展到美国总共7个市场。正如之前所指引的,我们预计车队的扩张将在全年加速,同时进入新的美国市场。运营费用环比增长。增长主要来自大量研发相关活动,包括Semi卡车、Optimus、cybercap等新产品的量产前爬坡成本和其他AI计划,以及我们上线的额外算力所带来的升值。此外,本季度还有与诉讼费用有关的支出。请注意,我们正处于一个大规模投资周期,预计主要由研发推动的运营费用将在2026年及以后继续增长。净利润受到我们所持SpaceX股份产生的10亿按市值计价收益的积极影响,但这被约3亿的外汇损失和约1亿的比特币损失所抵消。正如先前指引的那样,我们本季度的自由现金流最终为负。IT转负的大部分原因是资本支出环比增长了1倍以上,而且我们预计其将在2026年下半年进一步增加。我们仍预计今年的资本支出将超过250亿。未来2年或3年,资本支出将继续增长,因为我们要扩大Robotaxi车队、扩大Optimus的产能、投资半导体晶圆厂、安装太阳能制造产能和AI算力基础设施,此外还要进行我们将为其他汽车制造业务开展的所有其他扩建。除了将现金用于这类投资外,我们还在伺机落实某些债务融资安排,这些安排将使我们能够借入最高300亿,以帮助加快这类投资。我们相信,这是让公司为下一个时代做好准备的正确战略,而且我们始终会以极高的资本效率进行这类投资。通往惊人富足的道路始终充满挑战,需要进行大胆押注。我们的进展将是非线性的。未来会非常美好,我们已经准备好迎接挑战。最后,我要感谢Tesla团队、我们的客户、投资者和供应商在这段旅程中对我们的信任。
第 14 段
非常感谢 Rabb,正如电话会议上的各位可能已经注意到的,我们在开场讲话中已经回答了 sei.com 上的几个问题,包括 Optimus 生产、Terrafab 和数字 Optimus。我们的 AI 副总裁 Ashok 今天也参加了会议,他将回答与 Robotaxi 有关的问题。
第 15 段
Ashok,谢谢你,Travis。sai.com 上的许多问题都与 Robotaxi 的部署和规模扩张有关,因此我们想全面介绍一下我们目前的进展以及未来的发展方向。首先,我想说明,Robotaxi 项目一直运营得极其出色,尤其是在安全性方面。该项目保持着无可挑剔的安全记录。如今,我们已经在2个不同州的6个城市完成了超过380,000英里的无人监督 Robotaxi 行驶。我们发生的重大事故为零。所有报道都是其他交通参与者在我们静止时对我们造成了影响。我想再次强调,迄今为止,这项运营有多么安全。行驶超过380,000英里,重大事故为零。一直以来,所谓的专家总是声称,要安全驾驶,就需要激光雷达、雷达、高清地图以及能想到的所有东西。我们在这里证明,事实并非如此。只用摄像头,就能实现安全、舒适且负担得起的自动驾驶。这项记录应当是对 Tesla 整套 AI 路线的有力验证。其次,我想谈谈规模扩张。大约1年前,我们在奥斯汀启动了 Robotaxi 项目。当时,车内乘客座位上还有安全监督员。去年年底前后,我们在奥斯汀推出了首批完全无人监督的 Robotaxi。自今年年初以来,车队每周无人监督行驶里程的增长率一直达到两位数。我再说一遍,过去几个月里,我们一直以如此高的复合增长率逐周增长。不仅如此,我们预计今年余下时间还会继续以如此大的幅度增长。另一点值得注意的是,在扩展至新城市方面,我们这边所需投入相对较少。我们预计,进入一座新城市所需的时间将继续趋近于零。最终,我们将以整个州为单位运营,而不是逐个城市推进。这样的增长之所以能够实现,是因为 Tesla 在前沿 AI 开发方面拥有一支世界一流的工程团队。目前正在运营的 Robotaxi 车队已经搭载了我们过去提到过的早期版本 V15 FSD 软件。对于 V15,我们规划了大约7条主要改进路线,而且它们都在并行推进。目前 Robotaxi 上运行的早期 V15 版本已经合并了这些路线中的40%,这正是车队现在运行的版本。随着我们继续完成 V15 的工作,我们会看到车辆将变得安全得不可思议,而且能力极强。我们已经从内部迹象看到,我们为技术改进所下的这些赌注都在继续,都开始奏效;我们预计回报将会非常巨大,而这将帮助我们在今年余下时间乃至此后继续维持同样的增长率。最后,关于 Cybercap,首先,它是一款非凡的产品。任何在里面写东西的人都会立刻爱上这种体验。我们已经调整了制造目标,使其大致匹配预计的无人监督行驶里程增长率。为 Model Y 和其他平台提供支持的同一批 V15 模型也将在……上运行。Cyber 缝隙,总而言之,Robotaxi 迄今为止的增长确实是指数级的,同时保持着无可挑剔的安全记录。我们的技术赌注正在取得回报,帮助我们在可预见的未来维持指数级增长。而 Cybercap 将会非常棒。
第 16 段
很好。非常感谢你,Ashok。还有一个关于为 Optimus 训练收集数据的问题尚未回答。你能否也谈谈这个问题?
第 17 段
好的,当然。关于 Optimus,尤其是第 3 代,Optimus 的设计不仅要与人类的外表相匹配,还要匹配人类的功能和灵巧性。采用这种方法的主要原因之一是,具备人类的形态规格和功能,使我们能够向人类学习如何执行各种各样的任务。这让整个世界都可以为训练乐观主义者提供数据。就像 FSD 一样,我们可以接触到一支庞大的人类队伍,从我们工厂里的所有工人那里获得数据。乐观主义者可以通过观察他们在工厂里执行任务学到相当多的东西。我们还有一支专门的数据收集团队,他们可以提供数量相对较少但质量非常高的演示,用来对这些模型进行后训练。除此之外,我们还可以利用整个互联网的数据进行任何训练,其中展示了人们在工业环境和家庭环境中执行各种任务。第 2 个飞轮是,当我们让大量 Optimus 机器人在我们所谓的 Optimus 学院中练习任务时。这些机器人亲自体验任务所产生的数据将极其宝贵,并帮助我们弥合机器人与人类之间可能存在的任何细微形态规格差距。这也是强化学习循环开始发挥作用的时候,机器人最初会尝试一些任务,有时会失败,从这些任务的成功和失败中学习,并最终学会掌握这些任务,或许达到超人类水平。我们针对 Optimus 的 AI 战略与同样的战略一致。它就是驱动 FSD 的同一种端到端战略:像素输入,控制输出。而且就像 FSD 一样,我们预计它会在 FSD 中广泛适用。你知道,你可以上车,输入地址,然后点击开始。而这就像是会处理从停车地点到停车地点的所有驾驶。Optimus 也会是同样的情况。你只需要让它做任何事,然后你只需独自完成整个任务,而不需要你在过程中做任何事。而且,打造 FSD,也就是 V12、13、14 以及现在的 V15 软件的同一支团队,现在也在 Optimus 上工作。因此,我非常有信心 Optimus 将成为一个能力极强的机器人。
第 18 段
很好。非常感谢你,Ashok。那么 sei.com 上的问题就回答完了。现在我们将转到分析师提问。第一个问题来自 RBC 的 Tom。Tom,准备好后请随时取消静音。Tom,你仍处于静音状态,请取消静音,然后开始提问。好的,我们目前没有听到 Tom 的任何声音,因此我们先尝试转到 Andrew,并把 Tom 重新加入队列,让他接下来发言。那么,Andrew,你一可以发言,就请取消静音并提问。
第 19 段
能听到我说话吗?
第 20 段
是的,我们可以。
第 21 段
太好了。非常感谢你们接受提问。那么,也许先从 Optimus 开始。埃隆,你提到,目前实际上并不存在 Optimus 的供应链,所以很多东西你们不得不主要自行内部生产。我只是很好奇,在推进这项工作的过程中,你们是否看到有供应商愿意与你们共同投资,建立美国国内制造能力,从而可能帮助你们更快地在美国扩大规模。你知道,我是在这样的背景下提问:显然,你们希望在一定程度上掌控自己的命运并尽快提高产量,但从投资周期的角度来说,让一些合作伙伴一路帮助你们,可能会提高资本效率。所以我只是好奇,你们如何看待这一点,以及你们与一些潜在外部供应商进行过哪些对话。
第 22 段
埃隆,你现在可能静音了。
第 23 段
我们听不到你的声音。抱歉。是的,我们的供应品一直、一直都很不错,而且它们已经进行了。它们已经进行了并且正在进行巨额投资,以支持 Optimus、Robotaxi 等项目。尤其是三星和台积电正在建设晶圆厂。台积电在亚利桑那州,三星在得克萨斯州,它们正投入数百亿美元,为 Optimus 和 Robotaxi 提供合适的 AI 算力。松下也投入了数十亿美元来提高电芯产量。好吧,我这会儿身体有点不舒服。我有点生病了,所以声音听起来有点不对劲。我正有点艰难地应付一些。我今天有点生病,所以。
第 24 段
是的。
第 25 段
但我们的合作伙伴一直非常出色,我想感谢他们的支持、投资和辛勤工作。
第 26 段
很好,谢谢你的回答。也许只是作为一个。
第 27 段
很抱歉,Andrew。
第 28 段
我们会让 Karn 在这里简短补充一些信息。
第 29 段
是的,只是补充一下埃隆的观点,你知道,三星的那座晶圆厂将会在相当大程度上专用于未来的项目。这是一笔巨额投资,达到数十亿美元。我们看到同等规模的投资也正流向存储器,以及新的专用金属注射成型零件、柔性印刷电路和各种非线性技术;相比我们已有的传统汽车供应链,这些技术更多是以机器人为基础。而在某些找不到优秀合作伙伴的情况下,我们从未犹豫过将其转为内部生产。我们拥有一支能力很强的制造工程团队和一支设计团队,帮助我们扩大这些东西的规模。
第 30 段
是的。
第 31 段
实际上,我还想感谢美光为我们分配存储器产能。他们将不得不在存储器分配方面作出一些非常艰难的决定;考虑到如今存储器的定价相当疯狂,我们非常感谢美光在未来几年为 Tesla 腾出空间,并且实际上以合理条件向我们分配了非常可观的份额。
第 32 段
很好。非常感谢这些补充信息。也许我再追问一下 Robotaxi。你们在事先准备的发言中提供了很多很好的信息。但你知道,在传感器要求方面,州一级的法规似乎可能正在发生一些变化。所以我只是很好奇,在考虑你们自己的推广计划时,你们希望监管机构做到什么,或者需要监管机构做到什么,才能确保,你知道,显然一定程度的监管可能是好事,但你们不希望监管过度。那么,你们预计会看到什么?你们希望看到什么,以确保这件事,你知道,以恰当的方式推进?
第 33 段
Lars 已经接入通话。Lars,如果可以的话,能否请你回答这个问题?
第 34 段
好的,当然,Travis。我的意思是,我认为,你知道,我们谈到监管,尤其是在美国,我们已经取得了很大进展,而且你知道,联邦政府采取了一些很好的举措,让 FMVSS 规则朝着接受和采用纯粹制造的自动驾驶汽车的方向发展。我非常感谢 NHTSA 在这方面的支持。当涉及州与州层面时,显然新泽西州的那些事情,你知道,有点令人沮丧。我认为最终,正如鞋子在开场发言中所说,我们确实专注于车辆的性能,而最终这将推动监管机构和公众去采用它。你知道,我认为,你知道,最好的法规是那些为公司和创新者提供一个目标或任务,并允许我们找出解决方案的法规。而当我们看到法规在识别问题之前就提供解决方案时,我们真的不,你知道,欣赏这些法规。但正如 Tesla 一贯所做并将继续做的那样,我们会让自身表现说明一切。而且我认为,一场演出非常清楚地展现了这一点,而那,那将成为我们今后扩张的基础。
第 35 段
很好。感谢这些问题。
第 36 段
非常感谢。我们将再次尝试联系 RBC 的 Tom。Tom,你能否解除静音并尝试讲话?很遗憾,Tom,我们看到你已经解除静音,但听不到你的声音,所以我们只能把你送回队列。下一位是美国银行的 Alex。Alex,等你可以时,请自行解除静音。
第 37 段
嘿,谢谢。
第 38 段
感谢这里的提问。其实只是几个关于机器人出租车的后续问题。我想,从现在开始,投资者应该关注什么里程碑,它会促使你们加快车队规模扩张或市场部署?你知道,是进一步的安全验证,比如每起事故对应的行驶里程,还是其他什么?然后,你们是否会考虑与第三方建立分销合作关系,例如与网约车服务提供商合作,以提高利用率?还是目前的计划是让机器人出租车保持完全垂直整合?谢谢。
第 39 段
对,我们预计机器人出租车将采用垂直整合,就像我们其他业务一样。所以我认为机器人出租车不会面临任何需求方面的挑战。所以这是。但它的经济效益会如此有吸引力,以至于我认为,使用这项服务的意愿确实会远远更高,你知道,就像我认为,需求将是我们满足需求能力的一个方面。所以很明显,没有,你在这种情况下完全可以走垂直整合路线。因此,实际上只是要经历我们所说的可靠性多个 9 的进程,也就是你需要,比如,比如,比如需要多少个 9 的可靠性才能扩大规模?理想情况下,你希望达到 99.9999999,你知道,百分比的可靠性。所以这就是,这只是可靠性多个 9 的进程。Z。我认为这确实是限制我们机器人出租车增长的唯一因素。
第 40 段
很好,很好,谢谢,埃隆。下一个问题将来自富国银行的 Colin。Colin,准备好后请自行解除静音。
第 41 段
哦,很好。谢谢你们回答我的问题。关于 SpaceX 和 Tesla 以某种方式合并,已经有很多讨论。我的意思是,如今已经有很多合作。我的意思是,埃隆,你是否看到了协同效应
第 42 段
最终会通过合并这些公司产生吗?
第 43 段
从我的角度来说,这说得通吗,从
第 44 段
随着时间推移,您的看法如何?嗯,我是说,正如你们从我们与 SpaceX 在如此多方面开展的众多合作中可以看出的那样,合作很多,而且重叠越来越多,尤其是在 Terrafab 方面,那真的会是一个庞大的项目。但显然,我们不能在一次……上谈论,你知道,合并公司之类的事情。这必须通过适当的程序来完成。说到这里,我把话交给我们的总法律顾问 Brandon。
第 45 段
不,谢谢,埃隆。确实如此。我们继续受益于与 SpaceX 的关系,而且我们一直,他们一直是很棒的合作伙伴,我们与他们有许多互惠互利的交易。今年早些时候,我们通过一项投资和一份框架协议深化了双方关系。这将使我们能够继续与他们合作开展埃隆提到的项目,例如 Terafab 和数字 Optimus。
第 46 段
是的,还有很多其他事情。显然,车里有 Grok,然后还有 Groq 帮助驱动数字 Optimus。星链也正在被集成到 Cybercap 中,而 Sonic 将被集成到我们的所有车辆中,至少在星链已开展业务的市场如此。因为对于 Robotaxi 的情形来说,你需要,你知道,处处都有覆盖。即便在硅谷,也有很多、很多、很多地方的蜂窝网络覆盖很糟糕,甚至有时根本不存在,这对于硅谷来说令人惊讶。
第 47 段
但是,
第 48 段
但是,我不想在上班路上的最初 10、15 分钟开车。我实际上无法打任何电话,因为蜂窝网络连接太差了。所以我们不能让 Robotaxi 困在这些缺乏蜂窝网络连接的百慕大三角里。因此,星链凭借其在任何地方提供连接的能力,实际上相当重要。这样我们的 Robotaxi 就不会失踪。而且显然,如果人们坐在车里,他们会想做一些高生产力的事情。或者娱乐。有了星链,你可以在车里观看 4K 体育赛事直播。而且每 GB 数据的成本非常低,这通过蜂窝网络系统确实不可行。还有许多其他情形。
第 49 段
是的,我是说,我会说,可以像 Ashok 提到 Cybercap 时那样来思考。对吧。在一个你不必专注于驾驶的世界里,这种体验很棒。你在车里的全部时间都可以用来做事情,无论是参加电话会议、看电影还是任何事情。这就是为什么如果你看 Cybercap 的设计,它有一块大屏幕,而且你知道,我们已经开始在奥斯汀的工厂里进行 Cybercap 权利。当你经历这种体验时,你。我是说,很快客户就能在并不遥远的将来体验到,然后你就会明白为什么这种连接会变得如此重要。
第 50 段
很好。那么,Colin,你还有后续问题吗?
第 51 段
有,只是。如果我就 Robotaxi 再追问一下,你知道,如果我看这些上线情况,一直以来,你们一直在增加城市,但车辆数量仍然,你
第 52 段
知道,看起来,根据媒体
第 53 段
报告,大概只有几十份,而不是几百份。你知道,为什么不先在奥斯汀或 1、2 座城市扩大规模,再增加城市?以及要在一座主要城市实现,你知道,更高的数量规模,你们大概需要什么。开始在当地投放更多车辆的障碍大概是什么?
第 54 段
我们一直在不同城市扩张,而不是仅仅集中力量深耕一座城市,原因是我们希望确保我们的技术栈非常通用。它确实是通用的。我们只是既想向自己证明,也想向其他人证明,它无需为每座城市投入太多精力,就能在许多不同城市运行。这就是我们在内部看到的情况。然后,正如埃隆之前提到的,增长率确实一直是指数级的。只不过它处于指数增长的早期阶段。这就是为什么其他人很难从里程数与车辆数的角度理解。由于这些运营 Robotaxi 车队的车辆基本上持续行驶,不像人类驾驶员每天可能只使用车辆几个小时之类的。这些车辆大多持续运行,这意味着即使只有几辆车,你也能从它们那里获得大量里程。这就是为什么我们追踪无监督行驶里程数,或者只是车辆数量之类的指标。我们希望运营一支效率很高的车队。因此,所有为提高效率而开展的工作,进一步使我们能够从车队中的每辆可用车辆获得大量里程。
第 55 段
是的。再进一步补充一下,我就像,什么?这样想。我们正在努力扩大它的规模,并试图确认可能会存在各种问题。而且有些事情不仅涉及软件层面,也涉及运营层面,我们也在努力解决。因此,这就是为什么我们正尝试扩大覆盖范围,以力求确保在部署量真正变得非常高之前,能够以受控方式在较小的车队中解决这些问题。
第 56 段
是的。关于 CyberCap,需要指出的一点是,因为它是一款采用新底盘的车辆,我们需要。我们需要积累专门针对 Cybercap 的驾驶数据,然后才能让大量这类车辆上路。所以它不像,比方说,Model 3 车型。
第 57 段
是的。
第 58 段
以及我们的其他车辆,我们已有大量车辆在路上行驶,有数百万辆车在路上,我们。对于子帽,我们没有那些。所以我们实际上必须用经过改装、装有方向盘以及加速和制动踏板之类装置的侧帽来积累里程,以便针对中心帽底盘进行校准。因此,当我们对此有信心时,你们会看到城市中的 Cybercap 数量大幅增加。
第 59 段
很好。
第 60 段
我们的下一个问题。
第 61 段
哦,是的,请讲,Lars。
第 62 段
如果可以的话,我只想在这里补充一个想法。我只想指出的另一个原因是,你知道,交通运输,比如 TCO 交通运输,监管情况因城市而异、因州而异,并没有一个联邦层面的,你知道,框架来做这件事。因此,我们逐个城市扩张的原因是,要确保逐一满足所有这些要求,并且我们在尽一切所能满足,你知道,每座城市各自提出的所有要求。所以我们必须拓展到,你知道,每一座城市,以满足这些要求,而且我们会继续这样做。因此,Ashok、Vaibhav 和 Ashok 所说的一切都会。会同斯基林跟进。
第 63 段
谢谢,Lars。下一个问题来自 LightShed 的 Walt。Walt,请取消静音。
第 64 段
谢谢。
第 65 段
就 Lars 的那番评论快速追问一下。我是说,NHTSA 局长 Jonathan Morrison
第 66 段
刚刚上了 CNBC。
第 67 段
你知道,他已经,你知道,他正试图取消踏板,并且说了。我忘了他的确切用词,但看起来他想取消方向盘。看起来这会成为一个限制因素。但在联邦层面,你们是否还需要其他东西,才能真正
第 68 段
算是释放你们扩大 Cybercab 产量的能力。
第 69 段
简短的回答是,不需要。
第 70 段
我是说,我认为我们有一个
第 71 段
我们与 NHTSA,尤其是与莫里森局长,关系非常好。而且我认为,他们只是在落实公众所希望的,以及全世界都知道即将到来的事情;他们正努力走在前面,并确保,你知道,他们把正确的事情落实到位。所以,你知道,过去几年里,我们一直开诚布公地告诉他们我们的计划是什么、我们正在做什么。我不想说我们步调完全一致,但我觉得我们在那里有一个合作伙伴,我们正在共同推进这件事。
第 72 段
明白了。
第 73 段
然后,埃隆,我想问一个路线图方面的问题。显然,星链已集成到 cybercab 中,你们刚才也谈到了用这种连接来看电影,但反过来呢?这些东西,这些 cyber cabs 能否成为星链移动服务的远程热点?然后还有一个类似的半挂卡车路线图问题,你知道,你预计什么时候
第 74 段
你预计什么时候会考虑 Semi 的自动驾驶?
第 75 段
因为从自动驾驶货运以及鉴于我们国家目前的情况对它的需求来看,这似乎也是一个相当大的市场。
第 76 段
是的,当然。正如你所提到的,卡车司机确实严重短缺。所以,这里根本没有足够多愿意开卡车的人,而卡车对全美国的运输至关重要。因此,自动驾驶半挂卡车实际上对于解决卡车司机短缺问题会非常重要,而且显然非常有助于提高安全性;你知道,让卡车司机使用自动驾驶半挂卡车,会,是的,我认为会大幅改善使用这款 Tesla 半挂卡车的卡车司机的安全性和舒适度。你知道,由于 Tesla 半挂卡车的数量、总数量仍然很少,而且即使到今年年底,在我们的车辆总量中所占比例仍会非常小,所以我们把精力、自动驾驶方面的精力集中在大批量车型上是合理的。因此是 Model 3 和 Y,并为这些车辆和 cybercap 解决自动驾驶问题,真正达到通用无监督自动驾驶的程度。所以我们预计,大概在今年年底或明年年初让自动驾驶在 Tesla 半挂卡车上运行起来,但我只是不希望它分散对,你知道,对自动驾驶安全性的多个 9 的推进,对三路和 cybercap 上自动驾驶安全性的推进。所以,在未来大约 6 个月里,时间半挂卡车会暂时退居次要位置,但它会,你知道,明年肯定会有一点运行起来,并赶上 Tesla 半挂卡车扩大到大规模生产的时间。至于通信,是的,我认为这里有一个有趣的角度
第 77 段
在那里
第 78 段
你可以把 Tesla 汽车里的星链终端用作类似基站的东西,我想,或者基本上是连接塔,用来在地面上为手机以及任何想要使用 Wi-Fi 的人提供中继。不过,是的,我是说,这是另一个话题,但显然,我们也可以用固定式固态终端来做这件事。
第 79 段
好的,下一个问题将来自 Truist 的 Will。Will,请取消静音。
第 80 段
很好。
第 81 段
非常感谢你回答我的问题,埃隆。你稍微向我们透露了一些 Optimus 相关供应链的情况,强调了这会有多么困难。但我们非常希望了解,你们自行制造这方面半导体的倾向有多大。考虑到将使用的微处理器、微控制器、执行器和其他半导体,我想到其中许多都有市售产品。你们可以选择设计其中一些,但让第三方晶圆厂制造。你们也可能选择自行设计和制造。对于你们以这些不同方式采购这些组件的倾向,我们应该如何理解?
第 82 段
你说的是制造类似微控制器和烟雾的东西,也就是汽车中用于操控,你知道,比如转向系统和制动系统的各种计算机。
第 83 段
我说的是用于 Optimus 的,不是用于。
第 84 段
是的,
第 85 段
Optimus 有许多非常专用的电力电子器件和电路板。这些全都是 Tesla 设计的东西。但它们由供应商制造
第 86 段
用于
第 87 段
将在奥斯汀制造的 Optimus 4。Optimus 4 将采用垂直整合程度高得多的供应体系。而且,你知道,我们的目标是让 Optimus 4 的产量比 Optimus 3 高一个数量级。所以,按愿景来说,是每年 1000 万台,而 Optimus 3 是每年 100 万台。但是,但是你知道,这里要附带所有那些条件,因为扩大生产规模难得不可思议。所以。是的,Optimus 4 的垂直整合程度会高得多。因此可能会在内部完成很多类似 PCV 的工作,借助
第 88 段
那个
第 89 段
作为追问。嗯,首先,也许你可以谈谈那件事的时间安排,也就是 Optimus 何时,比如说,开始生产。但我真正想问的是,为了能够处理,我想是第 15 版的以及未来版本的 FSD,把硬件 3 升级到硬件 4 的计划。对这些汽车进行硬件升级仍然是原定计划吗?
第 90 段
我认为,对于,对于所有硬件低于硬件用于、基本上任何配有摄像头的汽车进行升级会是合理的,因为否则可能需要做太多改动。但任何具备某种、为摄像头做好设置的汽车,在某个时候对它们进行升级在经济上都会是合理的。但我认为,我们会希望把它们升级到下一代的,你知道,比如下一代 AI AI 板。因此,要么是我们有一款升级版 AI4 芯片,相比 AI4 算是一种中等程度的、适度的改进,可能在明年年中左右投产。然后还有 af5,希望也能在明年年中左右实现量产。AI5 最初将用于 Optimus,而且实际上进展非常顺利。所以 Tesla 芯片团队确实做得非常出色,在 AI5 上取得了令人难以置信的快速进展,而且我对 Tesla AI6 芯片的设计感到非常兴奋。我认为它将是世界上最好的边缘计算芯片,如果有人有更好的芯片,我想见见那个人并和他握手,因为 AI6 芯片实在太好了。所以我认为,我们在芯片方面有一些事情进展得非常顺利。
第 91 段
是的。
第 92 段
另外,我想再次感谢台积电、三星和美光的支持。
第 93 段
很好。我们快到整点了,但我们会尽量挤出时间让来自巴克莱的 Dan 提问。Dan,请把自己静音。
第 94 段
很好,谢谢,感谢你们。我想问一下资本支出的速度和路径。埃隆,你过去说过,你知道,你们会尽可能多地投入,但,你知道,效率实际上似乎是制约因素。那么,在当前这个资本支出周期周期中,你们的资本支出速度在多大程度上实际上只是因为再增加支出就会以低效方式进行而受到限制?而资本支出的速度在多大程度上确实是当前解除你们所面临的不同供应限制的首要决定因素?
第 95 段
是的,这是个好问题。实际上,你知道,我,我要求团队做的是,我们确实应该尽可能快地投入资本支出,在不至于太浪费的情况下,能多快花就多快花。所以,我们并不是要追求某种极高效率的资本支出效率,因为那会拖慢进度。因此,这是在某种程度的资本效率与时间之间寻求平衡。所以,如果我们可以做到,那么只要能更早完成事情,资本效率稍微低一点也没关系,因为那实际上会为公司带来更高的净现值结果。所以总体而言,我对事情的进展相当满意。我的意思是,我们同时在如此多不同领域开展规模惊人的建设并提高产量。我认为可能从来没有哪家公司以这种规模做过这些事,或许按比例来说,亨利·福特当年生产 Model T 时做过类似的事。或者第二次世界大战期间,各家公司扩大武器生产规模时做过。但我认为,这可能是美国自第二次世界大战以来速度最快的工业扩张。
第 96 段
是的。我再补充一点。基本上,如果你看一下,你知道,我们所有的资本支出都在努力用于生产性资产。对吧。我们基本上是在扩大工厂规模。无论是 Optimus,无论是 Cybercap,无论是今年早些时候投产的 LFP 工厂,还是半挂卡车工厂,甚至还包括在其中建设一座半导体晶圆厂,同时事实上我们也在努力扩大美国的太阳能制造规模。
第 97 段
是的,非常重要。是的。顺便说一下,这一点被低估了。请继续。
第 98 段
是的,基本上,美国的太阳能制造规模,我们就是要把它扩大一个数量级。而且,而且这些事情没有一件是容易的。对吧。因为要建一座工厂,你就必须从零开始。再告诉你们一下,我认为我们还没有分享过这一点。我们最终成为了几乎所有自有建设设施的总承包商,因为我们正在进行的建设实在太多了。所以,回到埃隆刚才所说的,我们正在以非常快的速度扩大规模。是的,这意味着我们在同一时间做很多事情。因此,我们只能竭尽人力所能,以最快速度让这些事情在现实世界中运转起来。
第 99 段
是的。我认为我们的资本支出效率高得惊人。很好。
第 100 段
好吧。
第 101 段
然后是丹。是的。你是不是还有一个后续问题,让
第 102 段
我们可以用它来收尾?
第 103 段
是的。也许只快速问一个关于储能的问题,这个问题,你知道,我认为是这里的一个关键话题。也许你可以谈谈,你知道,在可预见的未来,储能会在多大程度上受到供应限制。然后,现在的部署在多大程度上是公用事业公司常见的典型削峰?相比之下,你们在一些材料中谈到过,你知道,电池储能。解决数据中心的电能质量问题,因为电力使用会剧烈波动,而鉴于你们在软件和电力电子技术方面的优势。那么,目前数据中心与面向公用事业公司进行更广泛削峰之间的需求曲线究竟是什么样的?
第 104 段
嗯,目前大部分仍然不只是削峰,还有电网平衡。所以这不只是像事实会短暂开启,而是为了平衡,为了平衡风力发电和太阳能发电的电力。电池非常棒。我的意思是,未来世界上绝大多数能源都将通过太阳能与电池的组合来生产。当然,所有星链卫星已经都是通过太阳能电池板和电池来供电的。你可以把地球想象成一颗巨型卫星。太阳能够提供的能量远远超过其他任何来源。而且我们认为电力限制将会是,它们确实是AI面临的一个重大问题,仅仅是启动AI计算机。AI算力需求如此之高,以至于人们,甚至所谓的超大规模云服务商,都难以启动自己的AI算力、找到电力,然后平滑电力,你知道,尤其是在训练运行期间,功率会在极短时间内剧烈循环变化。在一次训练运行期间,功耗可能会在,你知道,100毫秒内下降70%,而你确实需要响应迅速的先进电力电子技术,才能平滑这些,这些巨大的,巨大的功率变化,尤其是在训练运行期间。
第 105 段
所以
第 106 段
这就是为什么SpaceX为数据中心购买了这么多Megapack。实际上,这些主要是为了平滑训练运行期间的功率。但它也有助于从电网获取更多电力,因为,你知道,如果你,如果你告诉公用事业公司,他们
第 107 段
可以,
第 108 段
你知道,他们不会,他们将不需要在,你知道,一年中最糟糕的那些小时或最糟糕的那些天供电,因为电池可以应付,那么这就让他们给你供电容易得多。事实上,我的意思是,扩大美国能源总产量的最佳方式可能就是使用电池,因为美国大约有 1.2 或 1.3 太瓦的发电能力,但平均功率使用量只有半太瓦。所以你的发电能力是平均使用量的 2.5 倍。这意味着,只用电池,你就有可能让美国的能源应用翻倍。所以说真的,我们认为未来对 Megapack 的需求会非常、非常高。
第 109 段
好了。我们今天问答环节的时间就到这里。感谢大家提出的问题,期待下个季度再与大家交流。非常感谢。
第 110 段
谢谢大家。
第 111 段
它。
Paragraph 1
Good afternoon everyone and welcome to Tesla's second quarter 2026 Q&A webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, head of Investor relations and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vivav Tineja and a number of other executives. Our Q2 results were announced at about 3pm Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast. During this call we will discuss our business outlook and make forward looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations. As of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the sec. During the question and answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue. Before we jump into Q and A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon,
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Thank you. So yeah, it's been a great quarter. We achieved a record Q2 deliveries. Model Y I believe is now, I think it's the best selling car of any kind in the world and is setting records across the board. So its popularity is increasing tremendously and we're seeing in locations that have FSD approved, we're seeing a very high take rate of FSD and in fact I think for a lot of people they're actually buying Tesla full self driving with a car attached as opposed to a car with fsd. They're coming into our stores in the US and saying they want the full self driving and with whatever car it comes with essentially. So clearly this is a significant demand driver and as we get approval for FSD in different countries I think we'll see a similar uptick in demand. So yeah, it's looking very good on that front. The energy business is also growing incredibly fast and I think will be crucial for the scale up of artificial intelligence data centers. We're investing a lot in growing the core business and really preparing for the future. So this is a massive capex year, but I'm confident that all the things that we're investing in will yield incredible returns. Really the best capex returns that we've ever seen and just Tesla team has performed incredibly well. The Slabcap has started production and we also have started production and a ramping in. Well we will soon start production with Optimus, we have started production with the Tesla semi truck, we will soon start production with Megapack 3. We've started production with the lithium refinery, the Cathode refinery. We also have, we're Scaling up battery cell productions, battery cell production, and we're also preparing to do a massive solar panel. Like solar cells and panel production. Actually this is going all the way from silicon refinement to producing the solar cell and then deployment of solar because there's going to be tremendous need for electricity in the future due to electrification of transport and AI, obviously. So we're working on what we believe is the most ambitious build out of advanced infrastructure manufacturing capacity ever in history. It's big deal. So with Robotaxi, our goals are very ambitious for Robotaxi, but we do need to be cautious about causing any accidents or causing any harm to anyone. Although there are I think 30 to 40,000 automotive deaths per year in the United States alone. Most of those do not generate any press or, you know, you never really read about almost any of those. But if we injure even one person, it will be worldwide headline news and regulators will immediately clamp down on our activities. And we don't want to injure anyone. So we're going as fast as humanly possible in scaling Robotaxi while trying to ensure that we do not harm anyone at all and ideally do not even run over a pest. So that's really the constraint is we want to grow as fast as possible with Robotaxi without harm to anyone. And we're providing live updates for Robotaxi launch. As we open up in the city, we immediately post that on X. So if you just follow the Tesla account on X, you're. But we'll keep you informed as we scale to new cities. We've opened up in a number of cities in Florida and in Texas and obviously in the Bay Area. So we'll continue to scale, I think very, very rapidly with it looks like more than 10% a week in terms of miles driven. So it's a very high cost compound growth rate. So let's see Optimus. You know, as you've heard me say before, I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever. But it is a very complex problem to solve. It's one of the, one of the hardest things to solve to make a, an autonomous humanoid robot that can do tasks that you said if you simply ask it to do something or show it a video, it can do the task without any programming. Like no one's, no one's ever achieved this. And you've got. There are many challenges in the electromechanical design of the robot to achieve sufficient dexterity and also be very reliable and have long wear and tear like meaning it needs to be out in the field and not break down. Otherwise you've got sort of a 70 kilogram robot that just flopped over and you've got to carry it out like a body. You know, it doesn't have wheels
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and
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we don't want optimists to go haywire. So. It's a lot of work to scale, to get the design weight and to scale production. And I really want to emphasize here that the production scaling challenge is very substantial. This is going to be the hardest product to scale manufacturing that we've ever made at Tesla, because everything on the robot is new and the difficulty of scaling the production ramp is proportionate to the nearness of the parts in the robot. And at least with electric cars, the non electric powertrain portions of the cars had an existing supply chain. So you could go to existing suppliers for wheels and side mirrors and windshield glass and that kind of thing, body panels. But with Optimus there is no supply chain. So we've had to build up a supply chain in its entirety or in house. The production and we actually announced a tremendous amount. The Optimus production line that we're building out in Fremont in place of what used to be the model SX production looks incredible. I mean it's quite stunning to see. So I just want to make sure to calibrate people correctly. It's will follow the sort of normal S curve of manufacturing of a manufacturing ramp, but the initial portion of the X curve will be quite flat and long because of the newness of the parts in the robot.
Paragraph 5
So
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you've probably seen lots of impressive demonstrations of robots on the Internet. But those demonstrations you're seeing are pre programmed or remote controlled. So there is no humanoid robot that is actually able to do generalized tasks. Optimus will be the first one that is capable of doing that where it's not just a demo, it's genuinely useful in day to day life. So. And Optimus is designed to have full human dexterity. So a hand that has the same level of dexterity, if not higher than a human hand, and the human hand is an incredible, incredible thing. The more you study the human hand, the more amazing you realize how amazing hands are. It's more than just opposable thumbs. I mean the nuances of how human hands work are amazing as the closer you look, the more amazed you are. And Optimus will have that capability, you'll have human and then superhuman dexterity. So it's really going to be quite something. Let's see Terrafab, you know the Terafab. We expect to announce the location soon and provide more details about our plans in that regard, which we'll leave that to the product, sort of the launch announcement rather than try to squeeze it into an earnings call. Because I think this is a, this is a very big announcement and it deserves to have its own sort of day in the spotlight and not be sort of squeezed into an earnings call. But I do think Terrafab is going
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to be
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an amazing initiative and a necessary one, one without which we will be constrained in our ability to scale Optimus production because we simply won't have enough AI chips. So it's crucial to solve that and we'll have to solve memory, logic and packaging for in order to scale Optimus.
Paragraph 9
So
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anyway, like I said, we'll leave that to its own announcement. We've placed equipment orders for our development FAB in Austin and that development fab I think is pretty cool because it's intended to have lithography, mask production and then logic, memory and packaging and chip testing all under one roof. So you can have a very fast iterative cycle and try out new chip designs very quickly and see if they work. I don't think such a building exists anywhere on earth. So this is really going to be super helpful as we try some exciting, adventurous, high risk, high payoff bets on AI chips. They focus, like I said, on primarily on Optimus. Like how do we make Optimus as useful as possible? Then we have like we have digital Optimus which is basically driving a computer screen, I guess you could call it computer use or something like that, but driving a computer screen in the same way that you drive a car. So for the car with it's sort of pixels in or photons in and controls out, the same thing is true for Optimus digital optimists. It's photons in, controls out. So we feel confident we can adapt the same Tesla AI technology that we developed for self driving cars to have a self driving computer screen or self driving computer essentially. So the self driving computer where the Tesla, the very low cost Tesla AI 4 computer can handle all of the sort of short term tasks they're doing real time video control of the screen, of the computer. So it's not like screenshots type of thing, it's real time video and high frame rate. And digital optimist will be important obviously for physical optimists because physical Optimus needs to be able to operate computers. It's like it can't come up to a touchscreen and not know what to do. It's got to have a generalized touchscreen and computer use capability. So that's looking promising. And this is in partnership with SpaceX. SpaceX is broad, sort of the big model that is kind of like the. The manager of Digital Optimus and kind of tells Digital Optimist what to do, provides it with a series of tasks, and then Digital Optimist goes and does those tasks. We're also building out a Megapod design that has Tesla AI for computers with x86. So pairing x86 computer with the Tesla AI 4 computer in a box. It's got this Digital Optimus in a box and in a Megapod, kind of like the Megapack packaging. And so we put just a Large number of AI4/x86 combos in a giant box, essentially. And these boxes can be placed anywhere in the country or outside the country. And this allows us to scale AI compute using disaggregated electricity production. So there's lots of places all around the world, including in our superchargers. I think we've got something like 7 gigawatts of power at our Superchargers and growing. And we can place megapods at many of these superchargers and have distributed power for AI. So I think that that could be quite a big deal. So, in conclusion, we're super excited about our autonomy and robotics roadmap. There's so much awesome stuff coming. It's like I said, hard to squeeze into an earnings call, but we'll have a lot of product announcements and this is going to be a great year for Tesla. I think one of our best years ever. And then I think next year will be even better. So, in conclusion, I want to thank the Tesla team for their excellent execution and all of our supporters for joining us in Australia. Thank you.
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Great.
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Thanks so much, Elon. And now Vaibhav has some opening remarks.
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Thanks, Travis. So Q2 continued the trend that we saw at the end of Q1, a resurgence in demand for vehicles across the globe. We achieved record Q2 deliveries globally with sequential growth across the Americas, APAC and EMEA of 60%, 27% and 12% respectively. Additionally, model Y set records in several key markets, including the Netherlands, Australia and New Zealand. The efforts of the Tesla team to create compelling products at a reasonable price with the capability of autonomous driving are coming to fruition. We exited Q2 with our largest order backlog since 2023. We are therefore focused on increasing production at all our factories to meet this growing demand. Production growth will be limited by our supply chain. This includes not just batteries, but also electronic components. We've been here before and like always, our Tesla team is working actively to unblock the obstacles ahead by securing strategic deals with suppliers. Like Elon mentioned, one of the key factors for vehicle demand has been fsd. Our sales data suggests one of the main reasons are coming and looking at the car is because of FSD. In Q2 we had in North America about 55% of our deliveries had FSD subscription at the time of delivery enabled Overall FSD attached rates continue to improve, reaching nearly 1.5 million paid customers globally of which 55% is upfront purchases and the remaining 45% is subscriptions. We expect that the bulk of the growth in FSG monetization will come from subscriptions as we remove the purchase option. In most markets, automotive margins excluding regulatory credits declined sequentially from 19.2% to 16.3%. As a reminder, we had highlighted in Q1 that we had a 230 million benefit from warranty, true downs and some tariff relief which did not repeat in Q2. Controlling for the impact of those benefits from the prior quarter, our automotive gross margins excluding credits would have been approximately flat. This demonstrated the effective pricing and cost management done by the Tesla team as we continue to drive demand, commodity price increases and interest rate changes all continue to add to our cost. Note that interest rate subvention costs are recognized as upfront as revenue offset. So as interest rates have risen this year, the cost of subvention has risen along with them which had a negative impact on automotive margins. As we have previously noted, energy business is inherently lumpy. Deployments are tied to customer timelines and largely out of our control. In Q2 we deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage, a 53% sequential increase and the second largest quarter for energy business. Despite this growth, energy gross margins declined from 39.5% to 20.4%. This margin decline was a result of several dynamics. First, there was a warranty true up in the quarter of about 240 million related to certain vendor cell issues for our legacy deployments. Also, the tariff benefits we recognized in Q1 of more than 200 million did not repeat and lastly we had previously guided that ASPS for industrial storage is coming down amidst growing competition. Long term, we believe the energy business should normalize at a gross margin rate in the mid to low 20% range. Our order backlog of this business is robust and we are doing our best to build based on both existing demand and future demand. We expect from data center growth and overall electrification of the economy. Service and other margins improved sequentially from 9.2% to 14.1%, an all time high. This was mainly driven by an uptick in volume and better cost management of our vehicle fleet that supports businesses such as used car supercharging, service centers and insurance. While marginal today. Also included in this business are deliberate investments we are making in infrastructure that will help scale Robotaxi in the future. We continue to grow the Tesla Robotaxi fleet and have expanded to a total of seven markets in the us. We expect the ramp of the fleet to accelerate throughout the year along with expansion into new US markets as previously guided operating expenses increased sequentially. The increase came primarily from significant research and development related activities including pre production ramp costs for new products like the semi truck, Optimus cybercap and other AI initiatives as well as appreciation for an additional compute that we brought online. Additionally, we had charges related to litigation expenses in the quarter. Note that we are in a big investment cycle and expect our operating expenses, largely driven by R and D, to continue to grow in 2026 and beyond. Net income was positively impacted by a mark to market gain of 1 billion on our SpaceX holdings which was offset by losses on FX of approximately 300 million and on Bitcoin of about 100 million. As previously guided, our free cash flow ended up being negative for the quarter. Most of the reason for the IT going negative is because CAPEX more than doubled sequentially and we expect it to increase further in the second half of 2026. We continue to expect that CAPEX for this year will be more than 25 billion. Capex will grow for the next two or three years as we expand our Robotaxi fleet, expand our production capacity for Optimus, make investments for semiconductor fab, install solar manufacturing capacity and AI compute infrastructure in addition to all the other expansions we'll do for other manufacturing for automotive. In addition to using our cash for such investments, we are being opportunistic in securing certain debt facilities that will give us the capacity to borrow up to 30 billion to help accelerate such investments. We believe this is the right strategy to position the company for the next era and we'll always make such investments in a very capital efficient manner. The path to amazing abundance is ever challenging and requires making bold bets. Our progress will be nonlinear. The future is going to be great and we are ready to rise to the occasion. I would like to end by thanking the Tesla team, our customers, investors and suppliers for their confidence in us on this journey.
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Thanks so much Rabb as everyone on the call may have Noticed we've covered several of the sei.com questions already in opening remarks, including Optimus Production, Terrafab and Digital Optimus. Ashok is joining us today, our VP of AI, and he's going to cover questions related to Robotaxi.
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Ashok, thank you Travis. Many of the questions on sai.com relate to robotaxi deployment and scaling, so we thought we'd provide a comprehensive view of where we are now and where we are going in the future. First of all, I'd like to state that the Robotaxi program has been operating extremely well, especially in terms of safety. The program has had an impeccable safety record. We have driven more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised robotaxi now across six cities in two different states. We have had zero notable incidents. Any reports have been of other actors impacting us when we were stationary. Again, I like to emphasize how safe the operation has been so far. Zero notable incidents over 380,000 miles. Historically, the so called experts have always claimed that you need lidars, radars, HD maps and the entire kitchen sink to drive safely. Here we show that such is not true. You can have safe, comfortable and affordable autonomy with just cameras. This record should be a huge validation of Tesla's entire AI approach. Second, I'd like to discuss scaling. We started the Robotaxi program roughly a year ago in Austin. We had safety monitors in the passenger seats of the cars back then. Around the end of last year, we had the first fully unsupervised robotaxis in Austin. Since the beginning of this year, we have grown at double digit growth rates to the number of unsupervised miles that the fleet drives every week. I repeat, we have grown at such a high compounding rate on a week over week basis over the last several months. Not only that, we expect to continue growing at such a large rate through the rest of this year. The other thing to note is that for expanding to new cities, it has been relatively less effort on our front. We expect that the time to launch to a new city will continue to trend towards zero. Towards an end where we operate in entire states as a whole instead of going by city by city. Such growth was only possible because we have a world class engineering team at the Frontier AI development here at Tesla. The currently operating Robotaxi fleet is already running early versions of the V15 FSD software that we had referred to in the past. For V15 we had planned roughly about seven major improvement tracks and they're all happening in parallel. The early V15 builds that are running on robotaxi have already 40% of those tracks merged together, and that's what's running in the fleet right now. As we continue to complete our work on V15, we will see that the car is going to be ridiculously safe and capable. We are already seeing internal signs that all of these bets that we have made for technology improvements are all continuing to are all starting to work, and we expect that the payoff will be huge and that's what is going to help us sustain the same growth rate through the rest of this year and so on. Finally, regarding the Cybercap, first of all, it's a phenomenal product. Anyone who writes in it instantly falls in love with the experience. We have aligned our manufacturing targets to roughly match the projected growth rate of the unsupervised miles. The same V15 models that power Model Y and other platforms will also work on. Cyber gaps in conclusion, Robotaxi growth so far has been literally exponential while keeping an impeccable safety record. Our technology bets are paying off, helping us sustain exponential growth for the foreseeable future. And the cybercap is going to be awesome.
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That's great. Thanks so much Ashok. And there was one remaining question on data collection for Optimus training. Would you mind covering that as well?
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Yep, definitely. Regarding Optimus, especially Gen 3, Optimus has been designed to not just match the appearance of human beings, but also the functionality and dexterity of humans. One of the main reasons for this approach is that having the human form factor and function allows us to learn from humans on how to perform a wide variety of tasks. This opens up the entire world to provide data for training optimists. Just like fsd, we have access to a broad fleet of humans giving us data from all of the workers at our factory. Optimists can learn quite a bit from observing them perform their tasks at the factories. We also have a dedicated data collection team who can provide relatively small amount but of very high quality demonstrations to do the post training of these models. This is all on top of any training we can do off of the entire Internet of data that shows demonstrations of people doing various tasks both in industrial settings and home settings. The second flywheel is when we have a large number of Optimus robots practicing their tasks in what we call the Optimus Academy. The data from the bots experiencing the task themselves will be invaluable and help us close any minor form factor gaps that may exist between the bot and the humans. This is also when the reinforcement learning loop kicks in where the bot initially attempts some tasks, fails sometimes learns from both the successes and failures of those tasks, and eventually learns to master those tasks at perhaps a superhuman level. Our AI strategy for Optimus is aligned with the same. It's the same end to end strategy that drives FSD pixels in, controls out. And just like fsd, we expect it to work broadly in fsd. You know, you can get in the car, type in an address and then hit start. And this like, handles all of driving from park to park. And the same thing is going to be true for Optimus as well. You're going to just ask it to do anything and then you just perform the entire task on its own without you having to do anything along the way. And it's the same team that produced FSD, you know, the V12, 13, 14 and now V15 software that now works on Optimus as well. Hence I'm very confident that Optimus will be an extremely capable robot.
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Great. Thank you so much, Ashok. So that covers the sei.com questions. Now we will move over to analyst questions. The first question comes from Tom from rbc. Tom, please feel free to unmute yourself when you're ready. Tom, you're still on mute, so please unmute yourself and go ahead and ask your question. All right, we're not getting any audio from Tom at the moment, so we will try to move on to Andrew and we'll add Tom back to the queue to come in next. So, Andrew, as soon as you can, please unmute yourself and ask your question.
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Can you hear me?
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Yes, we can.
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Awesome. Thanks so much for taking the question. So maybe just to start out on Optimus, Elon, you mentioned that, you know, there's really no supply chain today for Optimus, so you've had to mostly in source a lot of that yourself. I'm just curious, as you've gone through this exercise, are you seeing any suppliers willing to, you know, invest alongside you to set up domestic manufacturing to potentially help you scale more quickly in the U.S. you know, asking that in the context of, obviously, you know, you want to control your own destiny to some extent and ramp as quickly as possible, but from an investment cycle standpoint, you know, potentially more capital efficient to have some partners, you know, help you along the way. So I'm just curious how you're thinking about that and some of the dialogue you've had with potentially some external suppliers.
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Elon, you may be on mute right now.
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We can't hear you. Sorry. Yeah, our supplies have been, have been great and they've made. They have made and are making tremendous investments in support of Optimus and Robotaxi and whatnot. You know, Samsung and TSMC in particular are building fabs. TSMC in Arizona and Samsung in Texas and putting in tens of billions of dollars for suitable AI compute for Optimus and Robotaxi. Panasonic has also invested many billions in increasing battery cell production. Okay, I'm a little under the weather here. I'm a bit ill, so I sound a little off. I'm kind of struggling with some. I'm a little bit ill today, so.
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Yeah.
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But our partners have been great and I'd like to thank them for their support and their investment and their hard work.
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Great, thanks for that. And maybe just as a.
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So sorry, Andrew.
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We're going to have Karn hop in here for additional color briefly.
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Yeah, Just to add to Elon's point that, you know, the Samsung Fab, that's going to be pretty significantly dedicated to future projects. That's a massive investment, multi billion dollar. We're seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific metal injection, molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies that are more based for the robot as opposed to the traditional vehicle supply chain we've had. And in certain cases where we don't find a great partner, we've never hesitated from insourcing it. And we have a very capable manufacturing engineering team and a design team that helps us scale those things.
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Yeah.
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And actually I'd also like to thank Micron for giving us memory allocation. They're going to make some very tough decisions on memory allocation and we really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days.
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Great. Really appreciate that color. And maybe just my follow up on Robo Taxis. You guys gave a lot of great information in your prepared remarks. But, you know, there seems to be some evolving regulations at the state level potentially around sensor requirements. So I'm just curious, as you think about your own rollout, what do you want to see or what do you need to see from regulators to make sure that, you know, obviously some regulation might be good, but you don't want it to be overregulated. So what are you expecting to see? What do you want to see to make sure that this is, you know, done in a proper way?
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And we've got Lars on the line. Lars, if you wouldn't mind covering this one, if you can.
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Yeah, sure, Travis. I mean, I think, you know, we talk about regulation, particularly in the US We've made a lot of headway and you know, just good initiatives from the federal government in terms of FMVSS rules moving towards, you know, acceptance and adoption of purely built AVs. And I really appreciate the support from NHTSA on that. When it comes to like a state to state level, obviously the stuff in New Jersey, you know, is a little bit disheartening. I think ultimately, as the shoes said in his opening remarks, we really focus on the performance of the vehicle and ultimately that's what's going to drive regulators and the, the public to, to adopt it. You know, I think, you know, the best regulations are those that provide companies and innovators with a goal or a task and allow us to figure out the solution. And when we see regulations that provide a solution before identifying the problem, we really don't, you know, appreciate those. But as Tesla always has and will continue to do, we'll let our performance speak for itself. And I think a show played that out really clearly and that, that'll be the, the foundation of our expansion moving forward.
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Great. Thanks for the questions.
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Thanks so much. We're to try Tom again from rbc. Tom, can you unmute and try to speak, please? Unfortunately, Tom, we see you unmuted but we're not hearing you, so we're going to have to send you back into the queue. Next is Alex from Bank of America. Alex, as soon as you can, please unmute yourself.
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Hey, thanks.
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Thanks for the questions here. Just a few follow ups on Robo Taxi actually. I guess what milestone should investors be watching from here that would cause you to accelerate your fleet scaling or market deployments? You know, is it the further safety validation like a miles driven per incident or something else? And then would you ever consider third party distribution partnerships such as with rideshare providers to increase utilization, or is the plan for now to keep Robotaxi fully vertically integrated? Thanks.
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Yeah, we expect to be vertically integrated with Robotaxi as we are in the rest of our business. So I don't think we're going to have any demand challenges with Robotaxi. So this is. But the economics will be so compelling that I think we will really have a lot more desire to use the service than, you know, like I think demand will aspect our ability to service the demand. And so obviously there's no, you can just go vertical in that situation. So it's really just about going through and what we call the march of nines of reliability, where you need like, like, like how many nines of reliability do you need to scale? Ideally, you want 99.9999999, you know, percent reliable. And so that's the, it's just the march nines of reliability. Z. I think the only thing really constraining our growth in Robotaxi.
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Great, great, thanks, Elon. The next question is going to come from Colin at Wells Fargo. Colin, please unmute yourself when you're ready.
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Oh, great. Thanks for taking my questions. There's been a lot of chatter about SpaceX and Tesla combining in some way. I mean, a lot of collaboration already today. I mean, Elon, do you see synergies
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eventually from combining the companies?
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Does that make sense for me from
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your perspective over time? Well, I mean, as you can tell from all the many collaborations on so many fronts with SpaceX and there's a lot, there's more and more overlap, especially with Terrafab, that's really going to be a gigantic project. But obviously we can't talk about, you know, combining companies, that kind of thing on an. It's got to be done with the appropriate process. And with that I'll turn it over to Brandon, our general counsel.
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No, thanks, Elon. And that's exactly right. We continue to benefit from our relationship with SpaceX and we've had, they've been a great partner and we have numerous beneficial transactions with them. And earlier this year we deepened our relationship through an investment and a framework agreement. This will allow us to continue to work with them on projects that Elon mentioned like Terafab and Digital Optimus.
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Yeah, there's many other things too. Obviously you've got Grok in the car and so and Groq helping drive Digital Optimus. You've also got Starlink being integrated into the cybercap and Sonic will be integrated into all of our vehicles, at least for markets that Starlink is active. Because for a robotaxi situation you need to have, you know, coverage everywhere. And there are many, many, many places even in Silicon Valley where the cellular coverage is, is a terrible or sometimes non existent, which is surprising for Silicon Valley.
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But,
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but I don't want to drive to work those first 10, 15 minutes. I can't actually do any calls because the cellular connectivity is so bad. So we can't have Robotaxis getting stuck in these Bermuda Triangles of lack of cellular connectivity. So Starlink with its ability to do connectivity anywhere is actually quite important. So we don't have Robotaxis missing in action. And then obviously if people are sitting in the car, they're going to want to do high productivity stuff. Or entertainment. And with Starlink, you can watch 4K live sports in the car. And with very low cost per gigabyte of data, that's really not feasible via the cellular system. And there's many other situations.
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Yeah, I mean, I would say think of it like Ashok was mentioning about Cybercap. Right. That the experience is great in a world when you don't have to focus on driving. You have all the time in the car to do, whether it's a conference call, watch a movie or anything. That's why if you look at the cybercap design, it has a big screen and you know, we've started doing Cybercap rights in our factory in Austin. And when you go through that experience, you. I mean, soon customers would be able to do it in not too distant future and then you'll understand why that connectivity becomes so important.
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Great. And then, Colin, do you have a follow up?
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Yeah, just. If I follow up on Robotaxi, you know, if I look at the launches, it's been, you've been adding cities, but the number of units is still, you
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know, it looks like, based on media
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reports, sort of in the dozens as opposed to hundreds. You know, why not just sort of scale up Austin or one or two cities before adding cities and sort of what do you need to sort of get that, you know, higher volume numbers in a major city. What sort is the roadblock to start adding more vehicles on the ground?
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The reason we have been expanding across different cities instead of just doubling down a single city, is that we want to make sure that our stack is very general one. It is a general one. We just want to both prove to ourselves and to other folks that it is working across a lot of different cities without too much effort per city. And that's what we see internally. And then as Elon mentioned earlier, the growth rate has been literally exponential. Just it's in the early part of the exponential. That's why it's hard for others to comprehend in terms of like miles versus the vehicles. Since these vehicles operating the Robotaxi fleet drive basically continuously, as opposed to human drivers who use vehicles for maybe a couple hours a day or something like that. These vehicles are in mostly continuous operation, which means that even for a few vehicles, you can get a lot of miles out of them. And that's why we are tracking the amount of unsupervised miles or just the number of vehicles or something like that. And we want to be operating in a very efficient fleet. So all of the work that goes into the efficiency makes it even more so that we get a lot of miles per vehicle available in the fleet.
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Yeah. And just to add further to this, I'm like, what? Think of it. We're trying to scale this and we're trying to make sure that there are different kinks which would be there. And there are things not just on the software front, on the operation front, which we're also trying to tackle. So that's why we're trying to have a broader footprint to try and make sure before we go really high in terms of deployment that we are able to sort these things out in a smaller fleet in a controlled manner.
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Yeah. One of the things for CyberCap should be noted is because it is a new vehicle chassis, we need. We need to accumulate driving data that is specific to the cybercap before we can put a lot of them on the road. So unlike say, model three model.
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Yeah.
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And our other vehicles, where we've got a lot of vehicles on the road, millions of vehicles on the road, we. We don't have that for subcap. So we actually have to accumulate miles with side caps that are retrofitted with steering wheels and acceleration braking pedals, that kind of thing, to calibrate to the center cap chassis. So you'll see as we are confident about that, the number of cybercaps in cities will increase dramatically.
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Great.
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Our next question.
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Oh, yeah, go ahead, Lars.
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If I can just add, like, one thought here. The other reason I just want to point out is, you know, transportation, like TCO transportation, regulatory situations are different city by city, state by state is not a federal, you know, framework to do that. And so, like, the reason we're expanding city by city is to make sure that we're meeting all of those one at a time and we're satisfying, you know, all of the requests of each individual city and, you know, in every way we can. So we have to expand, you know, to each city to meet those requirements, and we'll continue to do so. And so all of what Ashok and Vaibhav and Ashok said will. Will follow up with the Skilling.
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Thanks, Lars. The next question is coming from Walt from LightShed. Walt, please unmute yourself.
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Thanks.
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Just a quick follow up for that Lars comment. I mean, the NHTSA administrator, Jonathan Morrison
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was just on cnbc.
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You know, he already, you know, he's trying to get rid of the pedal and said. I forget his exact term, but seemed like he wanted to get rid of the steering wheel. It seemed like that would be a gating factor. But is there other things that you need at the Federal level to really
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kind of unlock your ability to ramp cybercab.
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The short answer is no.
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I mean, I think we have a
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great relationship with NHTSA and Administrator Morrison especially. And I think they're just following through with what the public wants and the world knows is coming and they're trying to stay ahead of it and make sure that, you know, they're doing the right things in place. So, you know, we've been open and honest with them for the last couple years about what our plans were and what we're doing. And I don't want to say we're in lockstep, but I feel like we have a partner there and we're working together on it.
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Got it.
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And then just Elon, kind of a roadmap question, I guess Starlink obviously is integrated in cybercab and you guys just talked about the connectivity for watching movies, but what about the flip side of that? Can these things, can the cyber cabs become remote hotspots for starlink mobile? And then similarly roadmap question on the semi, you know, when do you anticipate
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looking at autonomy for the semi?
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Because that seems like a pretty sizable market as well in terms of autonomous trucking and the need for it given what's going on in our country right now.
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Yeah, absolutely. As you allude to, there is a really serious shortage of truckers. So there just aren't enough people who around here who want to drive trucks which are crucial for transport throughout America. So an autonomous semi is actually going to be very important to address the shortage of truck drivers and obviously will be great for improving safety and you know, making it easier on truck drivers to have a self driving semi is going to, yeah, I think dramatically improve safety and comfort for truck drivers that use this Tesla semi. You know, since the units, the total number of units of the Tesla semi is still low and will continue to be a very small percentage even by the end of this year of our total vehicle fleet. It makes sense for us to focus our efforts, our self driving efforts on our high volume vehicles. So model 3 and Y and solving self driving for and really getting to the point where it's generalized unsupervised self driving for those vehicles and cybercap. So we expect to do get self driving working on the Tesla semi probably around the end of this year or early next year and but I just don't want it to be a distraction on the, you know, on the march of nines of, of self driving, of safety for self driving on three way in cybercap. That's so the, it's taking a bit of a backseat for the next six months or so for time semi, but it will be, you know, it will definitely be a bit working next year and in time for the scale up to high production of Tesla semi for communications. Yeah, I think there's an interesting angle
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there where
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you could use the Starlink terminals that are in the Tesla cars as like sort of cell towers, I suppose, or connectivity towers basically for providing relays on the ground to cell phones and to anyone who would like WI fi basically. But yeah, I mean this is a different subject, but obviously we could do that with the stationary solid terminals too.
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All right, our next question is going to come from Will at Truist. Will, please unmute yourself.
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Great.
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Thanks so much for taking my question, Elon. You teased us a little bit about sort of the supply chain relative to Optimus, highlighting how difficult it's going to be. But we'd be really interested to understand what your propensity is to manufacture semis for this yourself. When we think about microprocessors, microcontrollers, actuators and other semiconductors that are going to be used, it occurs to me that you have many that are commercially available. You have an option to design some, but have them made at, at third party fabs. You also have the option potentially to design and make them yourself. What, what should we think about your propensity to source these components in these different manners?
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You're talking about making like microcontrollers and smoke, like the various computers that are in the car that operate, you know, like the steering system and the braking system.
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I'm talking about for Optimus, not for.
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Yeah,
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Optimus has a lot of really specialized power electronics and circuit boards. It's all Tesla design stuff. But it is fabricated by suppliers
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for
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Optimus 4, which will be built in Austin. That will be a much more vertically integrated supply system for Optimus 4. And that would, you know, we'd aim to have an order of magnitude more production of Optimus 4 than Optimus 3. So sort of aspirationally 10 million units a year versus a million units a year of Optimus 3. But, but you know, with all the caveats there, which is insanely difficult to scale production. So. And yeah, Optimus 4 will be much more vertically integrated. So probably doing a lot of the sort of PCV work in house with
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that
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as a follow up. Well, first maybe you could talk about the timing as to when that when Optimus for the, let's say, start production. But the actual thought I wanted to ask was the plan to upgrade hardware 3 to hardware 4 in order to be able to process. I Suppose it's version 15 of the and future versions of FSD. Is that still the plan to do hardware upgrades on the cars?
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I think it's going to make sense for, for to upgrade all cars with that are have less than hardware for almost any cars that have cameras basically because otherwise you're probably too many modifications. But anything that's got sort of, that's set up for cameras it'll be financially sensible at some point to upgrade them. But I think we'd want to upgrade them to the next generation of you know, like next generation AI AI board. So it'll be either like we have an upgraded AI4 chip that's sort of a medium sort of Moderate improvement over AI4 probably reaches production around the middle of next year. And then there's also af5 which hopefully is in volume production around the middle of next year. AI5 will initially go into Optimus and actually making very good progress. So the Tesla chip team is really doing great work and making incredibly fast progress on AI5 and I'm very excited about the design of the Tesla AI6 chip. I think it's going to be the best edge computing chip in the world and if somebody's got a better one I'd like to meet that person and shake their hand because the AI6 chip is just so good. So I think we got a things going really well on the chip front.
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Yeah.
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And again I'd like to thank TSMC and Samsung and Micron for their support.
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Great. We are coming up on the hour but we're gonna try to squeeze Dan in, so from Barclays. Dan, please mute yourself.
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Great, thank you, Appreciate it. I'd like to ask about the pace and path of capex. Elon, in the past you've said that you know you'll spend as much as you can, but you know, really efficiency seems like it's the gating factor. So to what extent right now in this capex cycle cycle is your pace of CAPEX effectively capped simply because spending any more would be done in an inefficient manner? And to what extent is the pace of CAPEX really the primary determinant right now in unlocking different supply constraints that you have?
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Yeah, it's a good question. I've actually, you know, my, what I've asked the team to do is like really we should be spending on capex as fast as we can, spend as fast as we can without it, without it being too wasteful. So we're not trying to aim for like some extremely high efficient efficiency capital spend because that would slow things down. So it's trying to, it's a balance between like how much, you know, sort of capital efficiency versus time. So if we can be, it's okay to be a little less capital efficient if we get things done sooner because that's actually going to be the higher NPV outcome for the company. So overall I'm pretty happy with how things are going. I mean we're doing an incredible amount of construction and production growth in so many different arenas simultaneously. I don't think there's ever been a company that's done this at the scale maybe proportionately back in when Henry Ford did the Model T or something like that. But World War II when companies were making scale up weapons production. But I think probably this is the fastest industrial scale up since World War II in America.
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Yeah. And I will just add a little bit on that. Basically if you look at it, you know, all our spend on capex is trying to do productive assets. Right. We're basically scaling factories. Whether it's Optimus, whether it's Cybercap, whether it's LFP factory which went into operation earlier this year or the semi factory or even putting in a semiconductor fab in there as well as we are trying to get a lot of solar manufacturing in the US in fact.
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Yeah, very important. Yeah. This is underrated by the way. Please go ahead.
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Yeah, Basically the amount of solar manufacturing which happens in the US we're just going to multiply it with an order of magnitude. And, and none of these things are easy. Right. Because what you have to do is in order to build a factory you have to start from ground zero. So just so you know, again I don't think we have shared this. We end up being the general contractor for almost all our construction facilities because we are doing that much construction. And so going back to what Elon was saying, we're going at a very rapid scale. And yes, this means that we are doing a lot of things all at the same time. And that's why we just have to go as fast as we can humanly make things work in the real world.
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Yeah. Our capex efficiency I think is off scale. Good.
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Alrighty.
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And then Dan. Yeah. Did you have a follow up that
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we can wrap up with?
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Yeah. Maybe just a quick question on energy storage, which is, you know, I think is a key topic here. Maybe you can just address, you know, to what extent is energy storage going to Be supply constrained for the foreseeable future. And then just to what extent are the deployments right now? The typical peak shaving that you'd see at utilities versus you've talked about in some of your materials, you know, for battery storage. Addressing the quality of power issue for data centers, giving the sharp fluctuations in power use where you have an advantage given software power electronics. So just what is that demand curve right now between data centers versus just broader peak shaving for utilities?
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Well, it's still mostly it's not just peak shaving, but it's also grid balancing. So it's not just like the facts are on briefly but for balancing, for balancing power from wind generation and solar generation. Batteries are awesome. I mean the solar battery combination will be how the vast majority of energy in the world is produced in the future. That's already of course how all of the Starlink satellites are powered is with solar panels and batteries. And you can just think of Earth like a giant satellite. There's far more power available from the sun than anything else by far. And we think power constraints are going to be, they really are a major issue for AI just turning on the AI computers. The AI compute demand is so high that people having even the so called the hyperscalers are having trouble turning on their AI compute and finding the power and then smoothing the power with, you know, especially for the training runs where the power cycles dramatically in a very short period of time. You can have during a training run the, the power consumption can drop by, you know, 70% for 100 milliseconds and you really need fast acting advanced power electronics to be able to smooth out these, these massive, the massive changes in power especially during the training runs.
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So
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that's why SpaceX has bought so many megapacks for the data centers. It's actually mostly for smoothing out the power for the training runs. But it will also be useful for being able to tap more power from the, the grid by you know, if you, if you tell utilities that they
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can,
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you know, that they won't, they will not need to supply power during the, you know, the worst hours or the worst days of the year because the batteries can handle it, then that makes it much easier for that for them to, to give you power. In fact, I mean probably the best way to scale total energy production in the United States is simply using batteries because there's I think around 1.2 or 1.3 terawatts of power production in the U.S. but the average power usage is only half a terawatt. So you've got two and a half times as much power generation as the average usage. That means you could potentially double the energy app for the United States just with batteries. So really, we see demand for Megapack being very, very high in the future.
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Alrighty. That is all the time we have for today for Q and A. We appreciate everyone's questions and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much.
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Thanks everyone.
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It.