我们、我们多年前认识，部分原因是当时我正在写一部电影。我当时要去推介一部名叫《星际穿越》的电影，史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格当时是导演，他想拍一部关于太空旅行未来的写实电影。所以我来做推介，我的推介非常简短。我说这部电影会有10分钟长，因为这不会发生。那是大约10年前。我们不会去，没有钱了，这对我们来说不再是优先事项。然后在这个过程中，而且不知怎么地。

我得到了这份工作。在创作这部电影的过程中，我和物理学家基普·索恩合作，他有一天晚上邀请我参加一个物理学会议。而我被安排坐在伊拉娜旁边。从那以后我们一直是朋友。这件事的讽刺之处在于，我最后和一个人成了朋友，而我个人认为，他正把指针推回另一个方向。而且就目前而言，仅凭他自己，比、比任何人都更能做到这一点。

我能想到的，所以最终结果是，我认为我们将重返月球，我认为我们将前往火星，而且我认为这很大程度上是因为你。所以，今天我们在这里收到的问题之一，你们提交的问题之一，我喜欢的那个夜晚，是简单的火星：我们能怎么帮忙？

什么，看，所以，短期来看，火星这件事其实就是要把宇宙飞船造出来。我们、我们在这方面进展顺利，在、在飞船和助推器方面，代号为 PFR。这又是什么棕褐色来着？嗯，它有点像一种咆哮害羞，是的，是一个首字母缩写形式。而且它非常大，我去年在澳大利亚举行的国际宇航大会上对此做过一次演讲。那个设计正在迅速演进，我们实际上正在建造那个。那个应该，不过那艘飞船现在就在造。我、我认为眼下最大的事情大概就是这个。

会有帮助的，就是普遍的支持、鼓励和良好的善意。我认为，一旦我们把它造出来，就会有，嗯，它会成为一个验证点，让公司和国家随后能够去做，因为他们目前不认为这是可能的，所以如果我们向他们证明这是可能的，那么我认为他们会填满他们的游戏，也会建造行星际运输工具。现在，一旦它建成，并且有了、有了一种抵达的手段。

我会去，人们也能往返火星，也能从月球以及太阳系中的其他地方返回，而我认为，那里真正需要的是创业方面的、创业方面的资源，因为你必须建立完整的工业基础，建立让人类文明得以存在的一切，而在火星或月球这样的地方，这会困难得多，困难很多。我们需要一些志愿者去当殖民者，这里有任何评论花粉泪吗？

实际上没有多少人举手，顺便说一下。我的意思是，火星的卫星经常被认为像是，这是不是给富人的某种逃生滑雪、逃生舱，但我，它根本不会是那样。它是，任何寻找只有那些去更好的火星的人。它会危险得多。

我是说，真的，它读起来有点像沙克尔顿的广告，满是南极探险者，你知道，就像：困难、危险，你很可能会死；幸存者将获得兴奋。类似那样。我认为，一开始真正想去的人不会很多，因为我说的那些事情都是真的，但会有一些人，对他们而言，边疆与探索带来的兴奋会超过对危险的担忧。而一开始会先建设最基本的基础设施，只是一个用于制造推进剂的基地、一座发电站、用来种植作物的爆破穹顶，所有各种基础要素，没有这些，我们、你就无法生存。然后、然后真的会出现创业机会的爆发，因为马斯会需要一切。

从铸铁厂到披萨店，再到像披萨店这样的，像，哦，我真的应该有很棒的酒吧。火星酒吧，对吧。比如我会很爱爸爸。你认为这件事的时间表是怎样的？所以我对时间表感到相当乐观，尽管我，我有时可能会有点，我的时间表会有点，你知道，人们告诉过我，我过去的时间表一直比较乐观，所以这里正试着在某种程度上重新校准。不过我可以告诉你我目前知道的情况，那就是我们现在正在建造第一艘飞船，第一艘火星橙色飞越星际飞船，就在现在。

而且我认为我们将能够、能够进行短途飞行，短暂的那种上下飞行，大概会在明年上半年的某个时候。

这是飞船里的一个非常大的助推器，它的起飞推力大约是一个7-5的2倍。所以它、它能够把150公吨送入、送入轨道，并且完全可重复使用。所以，一次性使用时的有效载荷大约、大约是那个数字的2倍。所以它会怎样，这艘飞船令人惊叹的地方在于，假设我们能够让拉羊毛和快速重复使用奏效，我们就能降低每次飞行的成本、边际成本？

与今天的水平相比，能以多个数量级大幅降低。但重复使用这个问题对于火箭技术来说太根本了，它是，如果你以飞机为例，它是所需的根本性、根本性突破。你可以租一架747，从卡尔·布洛克往返飞行。

啊，从加利福尼亚去澳大利亚，花费50万美元，这就是莉萨一架747完整往返澳大利亚的成本，而那很远。购买一个单一代理人以拥有一架螺旋桨飞机，一架不错的，大约要150万美元，而且它甚至到不了澳大利亚，并且与747相比它非常小。所以这意味着，就像，它花的钱更少——乘坐它——使用一架载货量巨大的大型飞机进行长途旅行，然后在夜间，那比在航空领域为短途旅行购买一架小飞机便宜得多，而火箭其实也是如此。那次成为一次 VFR 飞行，实际上会比我们当年的猎鹰1号飞行成本更低。那次每次飞行的边际成本约为500万或600万美元；他们有信心 VFR

会低于那个数字。所以，那意义深远，而这将使在月球上建立一个肯定的基地、在火星上建立任何城市成为可能。而这就等同于像联合太平洋铁路，或者拥有能够跨越海洋运行的船只。在你能抵达那里之前，所有的创业能量都无从施展，你不能，你什么都做不了，花朵也无从绽放。一旦你能抵达那里，机会就是巨大的。所以我们会尽最大努力把你送到那里。

然后确保那里有一个创业者能够劳拉，SH，而且的环境。然后我认为那会，那会非常惊人。其中很重要的一部分，也是我们谈过的，就是激励人们再次像这样去看。

你知道，我们昨天谈过这个。登上月球的是我们的祖父母，而从那以后我们再也没有回去过，你知道，在我的一生中，没有人去过月球。你和我去年进行过一次对话，讨论猎鹰重型里面该放什么？以及那种，货物是什么？

而这个想法是把它作为一个再次激励人们的机会。卡尔·萨根很多很多年前有过一个美好的想法：如果你只是让足够多的人从远处看地球，如果我们让他们关注这里的问题和太空探索的可能性。我很幸运，几周前猎鹰重型发射时，我和你一起待在发射控制中心，而且我们制作了一部小电影。

我们把它称为预告片。它概括了我们的那次经历，我们有，我们这里有。

我们想再给你们播放一次。这2分钟相当好地让你体会到，当他妈的所有人，是的，当时身处现场是什么感觉。我们真的想，我们想让公众今年获得保证，让他们为太空中发生新事物的可能性感到兴奋，为太空前沿得到推进而感到兴奋。这件事的目标是激励你，让你再次相信。

就像阿波罗时代的人们相信一切皆有可能一样。最后那张照片是 Roadster 车窗内一块电路板的照片。但我们试图尽可能迷惑外星人。就像，如果你仔细看，仪表板上还有一个 Hot Wheels 版的小 Roadster，Hot Wheels Roadster 里面有一个很小的宇航员。怎么只是经过一个篮球诺拉·诺斯，就是那个，所以如果你们有任何建议，请告诉我们。我认为，对我来说，看着那2枚助推器并排降落，感觉像是一个变革性的时刻，感觉就像，哦，我们什么都能做。而那是最终成果，我真的被这一最终成果所震撼，你知道，那是一种单一愿景与数百或数千名才华横溢的人共同努力的结果。

共同努力，确保每一个……坐在发射控制中心，看着你们在发射前的那些时刻所记录的海量变量：不同高度的风速，以及所有不同的27台发动机的状态。然后，你如何管理，你如何？

你对细节非常亲力亲为，但同时也在审视更大、更大的图景。你如何管理自己的时间？你如何，你如何，你如何解析，你知道？你如何放大和缩小视角，并确保所有这些事情汇聚到一起？

嗯，在 SpaceX，我几乎所有时间都花在工程和设计上，大概是80%和90%。然后，总裁兼首席运营官格温·肖特韦尔负责公司的业务运营，正是这让我能够那样做？

是的，我认为，为了做出正确的决定，你必须理解某件事，你需要理解某件事，你添加一个细节层面。你无法做出好的决定。所以，但我想说，大概就像，你知道，你在那里看到的是一支不可思议的团队的成果，而那就是基地 X。极有才华的人，他们真的疯狂工作。

是他们让这件事发生，你知道，我认为我的职责是确保他们拥有一个环境，让他们能够，他们真的能够，让才能真正得到施展，而且，你知道，但是我无法告诉你，能与如此出色的团队共事，我感到多么荣幸和感激。这个房间里的每个人都受到你的激励。谁激励着你？显然是坎耶·韦斯特？今天。我也是，弗雷德·阿斯泰尔，弗雷德·阿斯泰尔。

你知道，你应该看看我的舞步。我们可能，我们可能会看到一些舞步，除非你喜欢弗雷德·阿斯泰尔。他很了不起，如果你没看过他的电影。那些电影很了不起。

是的，我想，对我来说，当我审视你着手做的所有、所有事情时，共同点是，在Tesla、SpaceX、肩膀城市，以及现在的无聊公司身上，感觉就像你看到一个牢固确立的成熟行业，已经到了适合发生某种量子跃迁的时候，那里有一个机会，你知道，以汽车为例，就是电动化，这会彻底改变？

你知道，汽车的复杂程度，以及未来、未来潜在的？成本；对于火箭而言，是它的可用性；对于、对于太阳能而言，关乎的是一个牢固确立、即将受到大规模颠覆的能源系统。

这是在发生。而对于无聊公司而言，关乎的是审视那些通常需要数十年和数十亿美元的基础设施项目，并试图、试图降低复杂性。那是、那是你的方式吗？那是你的方式吗？你知道，你就是这样看待世界的吗。你是否会看到那些不起作用但可以变得更好的事物？不，但我的意思是，我不会像是看着事物然后说。好吧。按顺序排列的是什么？

你知道，从财务角度或诸如此类的角度来看商业机会。这，这其实只是，就像，这些是，有些事情似乎没有正常运作，但它们对于，你知道，对于我们的生活和美好的未来很重要。我说过，如果，如果你在我面前说，比如，做这件事的一种方式在哪里，或者对各个行业机会给出一个建议性的回报率或回报估算，我会把箭头，比如基本上把制造火箭和汽车，放在清单相当靠近底部的位置。但那必定是最愚蠢的事情，只是，只是因为，你知道，看看汽车行业，在美国汽车行业中，至少从某个时候来看，只有两家公司没有破产，那就是 Tesla 和福特，其他所有公司都遭到了

破产，或者经营失败并被收购。只有2家公司已经破产，而且有一大片由这样做的公司构成的墓地，同时在工程方面对抗根基稳固的竞争对手。没有，我我我基本上从一开始就认为SpaceX和Tesla成功的可能概率低于10%。那为什么还要做？

嗯，就 SpaceX 而言，我只是一直想知道，我们为什么没有在把人送往火星这件事上取得进展。为什么我们在月球上没有基地。我们在这里，那些电影《2001》里承诺的某种太空酒店在哪里。就像，你知道，这，呃。它。年复一年就是没有发生。是啊，这让我很沮丧。我查看 NASA 网站，我就想，它有没有写我们什么时候去火星，不是吗？

所以，最初以 SpaceX 为例，我想，嗯，SpaceX 的起源并不是创建一家公司，而，而其实是，我们怎样让 NASA 的预算变得更多，那最初是为了去，所以？我想出了这个小型慈善任务，就是把一个小温室送到火星表面？

它叫火星绿洲，而且，而且它们有一次着陆，座椅正在被脱水，营养凝胶在着陆时水合，然后，然后你就有了这个小温室。然后最值钱的镜头会是，你知道，绿色植物映衬着右侧背景。最近才知道，“值钱的镜头”还有一种我并不知道的含义，但，这个，你知道，我认为那会让人们兴奋起来，基本上重新点燃追随者的精神，而随着我越来越深入地思考做这件事需要什么，我了解到，根本问题其实是进入太空的成本。火箭极其昂贵，而将每磅送入轨道的成本，换算成每千克，实际上多年来一直在上升而不是下降，于是就像，好吧，

好吧，如果你，即使我们能够完成这项慈善任务，而且它激发了许多前往火星的意愿，也不会有什么意义。

如果根本没有办法，那就不会有什么意义。所以在我第2或第3次从俄罗斯回来时，我就想，哇，肯定有办法制造火箭。肯定有办法解决火箭坠落问题。我漏掉了我们阅读大量书籍和火箭的内容，而它们最好是对一个瓦洛克进行某种第一性原理分析。

就是把火箭中的材料分解开来，购买这些材料要花多少钱，与火箭的价格相比是多少，而火箭的原材料成本与火箭的成品成本之间存在巨大差异，所以从组成它的原子变为最终形状的过程中，一定发生了什么错误，而且发现这无疑是真的，然后，然后为什么人们不尝试让可复用性发挥作用。让火箭可复用性发挥作用非常困难，然后不幸的是，航天飞机最终成了一个反例，说明不要，不要尝试让可复用性发挥作用，因为空间数据最终每次飞行的成本都高于具有同等能力的可扩展运载器。所以很长一段时间，人们都在太空中使用

航天飞机，把它当作可复用性很愚蠢的例子。你不能拿一个单独案例的例子构建出一整套理论，所以在我看来，毫无疑问，如果你能读出火箭的效果。它必须是真正的复用，也就是快速且完全的复用。太空秀的问题是，只有系统的一部分回来了，比如那个大型橙色储箱，它也是主要机身，却每次都会被丢弃，而那些被使用的部件翻修起来难以置信。所以他们算是得出了结论，唯一国家的复用只有在快速而完整时才有意义。也就是说，两次飞行之间发生变化的唯一东西，远非定期维护，而是推进剂。所以我们在 2002 年踏上了创建 SpaceX 的旅程，而一开始我

实际上不会，实际上不让我的朋友投资，因为我不想让他们损失钱。

我当时觉得，就像你知道，我真的会损失自己的钱，所以。然后，SpaceX 实际上差点真的死掉，所以我们，我为 4或3 次飞行编了预算。我的意思是，严格来说，我确实有个计划，因为我必须有来自 PayPal 的钱，我从 PayPal 得到了大约 1.8亿。我想，你知道，我会把其中一半分配给 SpaceX、Tesla 和 SolarCity，那应该没问题。我会有 9000万 Lexus 地块。

你知道，但，但随后发生的是，事情花费更多，耗时也比，而且比我想的更久，所以我只能选择，要么把剩下的钱投进去，要么这些公司就会死掉，而这就像安排把所有钱投入，并解雇资金，或者从朋友那里租钱。2008 年非常残酷，如果你。是啊，2008 年，SpaceX 的猎鹰火箭遭遇了连续第3次失败。Tesla 差点破产。我们在下午 6 点左右完成了融资。

2008 年平安夜，那是可能做到这件事的最后一天的最后一个小时。否则我们本会在圣诞节后 2 天回升。而且我离婚了，我当时想，太艰难了，伙计。斯科特州长，是的，你确实等它。

这就提出了一个问题，或者也许你刚才已经回答了这个问题：为什么没有其他人在做这些事？你的痛苦承受阈值是多少？是啊，嗯，确实非常高。所以，是啊，SpaceX 活下来了，但它有点茫然无措，Tesla 也是。如果事情稍微朝另一个方向发展，两家公司都会死掉，而我想要最艰难的选择之一。

我一生中曾经面对过的，是，是在 2008 年，而且我想我还剩，我想，可能还剩 3000万美元，2008 年还剩 30或41美元。我有 2 个选择。我可以把钱全部投进一家公司，那么另一家公司肯定会死。或者把钱分给 2 家公司，但如果我把钱分给 2 家公司，那么两家都可能死。而你知道，当你为了创造某样东西投入自己的鲜血、汗水和泪水，欺负某样东西。

它就像一个孩子。所以这就像，我要让哪一个，我要让一个饿死吗？我能让自己这么做，很惊讶。我把钱分给了 2 个。幸运的是，谢天谢地，它们都挺过来了。我们有一个要问观众的问题，承接刚才的话题。你最大的失败是什么，它又如何改变了你？你最大的失败是什么，我又如何改变了你？

必须非常认真地思考那个失败。那就是你的答案。嗯，一路上有大量失败，这是肯定的。就像我说的，作为对 SpaceX 的支持，前 3 次发射失败了，而我们勉强才凑齐足够的部件和资金进行第4次发射，那两次发射要是失败，谁就会已经死了，所以一路上有多次失败。我非常努力地为 SpaceX 引入合适的专业人才。我努力寻找一位出色的火箭总工程师，但好总工程师不愿加入，而差的那些，嗯，雇用他没有任何意义，所以最后我成了火箭总工程师。所以如果我能找到更优秀的人，

那么我们的失败次数也许会少于 3 次。你要如何，你要如何规划一家你知道的企业？

火箭业务，你知道，其中有些东西会在发射台上爆炸。商业计划是如何运作的，我？

其实没有商业计划。是啊，我一直没有，但早在 zip 2 的日子里，我通过她有过一项业务。但，但这些东西总是错的，所以从那以后，我就一直只是父亲的商业计划。是啊，我的意思是，我认为，你知道，一厢情愿肯定是许多问题的一个根源，而且存在于生活的许多方面，一项业务或个人业务，或者个人的一厢情愿，会造成很多很多麻烦。你真的必须问，你知道，某件事是否属实，那不合情理，而且如果它让人感觉太容易，那它可能就是这样。你知道，这个，是啊。但说到 SpaceX 的戏剧性，我认为 Tesla 实际上可能一直是 2,000，也许是老旧的小问题，是一剂加班，实践戏剧磁铁，

这太疯狂了。你是怎么做到的，我的意思是，很多人都想知道，你知道，你现在管理着3家或4家公司，每家公司都在尝试做一些革命性的事情，每家都是一种历来被认为不可能挑战或颠覆的业务。

你如何，你如何确定优先次序？你如何，你如何，你如何确定不同公司之间的优先次序？你如何确定优先次序？你如何分配时间？

是的，当然，实际上能麻烦你给我一杯水吗？我有点邪教，我的声音也有点沙哑。它告诉一个最高优先级。就工作时间而言，几乎所有时间确实都投入到了SpaceX和Tesla。听起来我似乎在做许多不同的事情，但在尝试分配方面，压倒性地集中在SpaceX和Tesla。所以这是一个，然后至于非工作事务，几乎全都是孩子的事。我的孩子们今天其实也在这里，把他们带到了西南偏南，一切都玩得很开心。但他们去了那个《西部世界》展览，或者它真的非常棒，非常，还没看过《西部世界》的。你怎么称呼它，展览还是一个，我不知道你到底该怎么称呼它。

那是一座主题公园，真的做得好得令人难以置信，而且我昨天带孩子们去了，我们一起度过了非常愉快的时光。我想，可能我们面临的最大问题之一是，我其实不是投资者。我非常多地应付投资者投资的事情。我其实没有，不会错过任何东西回来。我拥有的唯一一种公开证券是Tesla，然后第二大的是SpaceX，然后，然后是无聊公司亨尼斯·塔塔。

更多是当作一个玩笑，因为这会是一个很好笑的公司名称。你知道，我们放，我们放进0并带来，我的意思是，这就像完全说不通。当我们，当我们谈到每个人时，你第一次告诉我你正在考虑隧道。而我必须告诉你，几年前就谈过那件事，好吧，就像很久以前。

就像我以为你在开玩笑。是的，当时我是在开玩笑，但这并不是因为有一天在405号公路上开车时我突然顿悟。它就是这样被称作翻译的，所以现在我多年来一直在谈4条隧道，大概有5年，或者至少4年。每当我发表演讲，人们问我，你在世界上看到了哪些机会时，我都会说，隧道，能不能请谁来修隧道。所以在恳求人们修隧道4年或5年之后，仍然没有隧道。

我当时就想，好吧。我想修一条隧道。这里是不是漏了什么。所以，是的，我就像基本上连续几年都在谈论燃料亚利桑那来建隧道，对吧，然后说，好吧，让我们弄清楚修一条隧道需要什么。然后，是的，就开始挖隧道。我想让隧道从我在SpaceX的办公室就能看到的地方开始，它所以东西。

我说，好吧，我们就把停车场的一部分拼凑到马路对面，这样我就能看到是否发生了任何事情。然后我们把第1台掘进机命名为戈多，因为我一直在等它。不，它终于来了，确实来了，然后我们让它运转起来，现在我们进展顺利，而且我们正在通过商品销售寻找这家公司。所以，感谢所有购买了火焰喷射器的人。你不会后悔，或者也许会。不会无聊。我们这里好像有一段关于无聊公司最新愿景的视频，它变成了一个霍华德。你知道，这种很棒的态度。我想，你知道，当我们最初讨论这个概念时，

你知道，隧道给人的感觉像是一种决然守旧的解决方案，用来处理那个由我发明的隧道。而我一直说还对飞行汽车抱有希望，你问了我一个简单的问题，就像永远替我解答了关于飞行汽车的问题，那就是，你希望你的邻居拥有一辆飞行汽车吗？

是的，没错？这正是问题所在。哦，你想要飞行汽车，那你周围的每个人也都有飞行汽车怎么样？哦？听起来没那么好了。是的，而且我认为隧道挖掘的一个有趣之处在于，你知道，它是这些没有太多更多竞争的事情之一。它不是一个，你知道。它是，它是适合改变的东西，所以你怎么，是的？

你谈到，戈多的理念就是让它一直运行。基本上一直到你弄明白。为什么它不能运行得更快。是的，需要说明的一点是，它实际上只占我时间的2%。它可能占了我推文的20%。推文与实际花费的时间并不相关。我的意思是，我算是只拿无聊公司找点乐子。但我的时间分配大约是，尤其是大约2%。谈谈你的时间分配。

我认为，有一件事你花了非常多的时间去思考，我知道，就是人工智能，也是你我共同感兴趣的事情，而且我们的观众也感兴趣。这里的问题是，很多AI专家并不像你一样对池外危险抱有同等程度的担忧。你的最后的话是什么，你具体认为有哪些事情是他们不相信的？

嗯，我在所谓的AI专家身上看到的最大问题是，他们以为自己知道的比实际知道的更多，而且总体而言，他们认为自己比实际更聪明。我们都比自己以为的聪明得多，但也远没有自己以为的那么聪明，愚蠢得多，差距很大。所以这往往会困扰、困扰聪明人，比如你就是不能，他们用自己的智力来定义自己。而且他们不喜欢机器可能比他们聪明得多这个想法，所以他们贬低这个想法，而这从根本上就是有缺陷的，那是一种一厢情愿的处境。我真的相当接近，我非常接近AI的最前沿，而它把我吓坏了。它的能力远远超过几乎所有人的认知，而且其进步速度是指数级的。

但你可以从AlphaGo之类的东西上看到这一点，它在大概6到9个月的时间里，从甚至无法击败一名水平还不错的围棋棋手，发展到击败排名第600位的欧洲世界冠军，然后击败莉萨·多尔，五局，什么，多年来一直是世界冠军，然后击败现任世界冠军，再然后在同时对弈时击败所有人。然后，接着出现了AlphaZero，它以100比0碾压了AlphaGo，而AlphaZero只是通过自我对弈进行学习。只要你输入规则，它基本上可以玩任何游戏，无论你给它什么规则。就真的只是阅读规则、玩游戏，在任何游戏中都达到超人水平。没人预料到会有那么大的进步，猜那些，所以那些同样的专家，他们……

认为AI并没有以我所说的速度进步？

我想你会发现，他们对围棋以及其他AI进展之类事物的预测，因此他们的命中率相当。低。

并不好。我们也会在、在自动驾驶上看到这一点。我认为可能到混合期间，自动驾驶将会很好地涵盖基本上所有驾驶模式，并且到明年年底至少比人类安全100%到200%，我们说的也许是距今18个月。Netsertive对、对Tesla的Autopilot第1版做了一项研究，这个版本相对原始，研究发现高速公路事故减少了45%。而且这还是尽管。

什么Pilot 1只是第1版。第2版，我认为会至少好上2倍或3倍。那就是目前正在运行的现行版本。所以改进速度确实非常惊人。我们必须想出某种办法，确保数字超级智能的到来能够与人类共生。我认为这是我们面临的最大单一生存危机，也是最紧迫的一个。而我们该怎么做到这一点，我？

意思是，如果我们认为在这一点上，某个版本的AI沿着1走来是不可避免的，我们如何，我们如何顺利应对它们？

我通常并不提倡监管和监督。我的意思是，我认为一旦你通常进入最小化这些东西。但在这个案例中，它对公众构成了非常严重的危险，因此需要有一个公共机构，能够洞察情况，然后对其进行卵母细胞，以确认每个人都在？

安全地开发AI。这极其重要。我认为AI的危险远远大于核弹头被困在内陆的危险，而且没人会建议我们允许任何人只要他们就去制造核弹头。那会很疯狂，而且嘲笑我的话，AI远比核武器危险。远远更危险。那么为什么我们没有监管监督？这太疯狂了。这个问题你已经问了很久。

我认为，这是过去1年里逐渐成为焦点的一个问题，你开始意识到它并不一定，我认为如果我们，我们一直都专注于人工超级智能这个概念，对吧，它显然是一种危险，但也许，你知道，还要更久才会到来？

过去1年发生的事情是，你已经看到了人工，我会称之为人工愚蠢。你谈到的是，你知道，利用算法操纵社交媒体，比如，我们现在已经身处其中了。它正在开始。它正在开始发生。我们如何，我们如何，是这样吗，现在的干预是什么？

我其实并不那么担心短期的东西，那些像是狭义AI的东西并不构成物种层面的风险。它会，它会造成失业方面的动荡，以及，你知道，那种更好的武器之类的东西，但它并不是一种根本性的物种层面风险。而数字超级智能则是？

所以这其实完全关乎打好基础，以确保如果人类集体、你们的科学认定，创造数字超级智能是正确的举措，那么？我们应该非常、非常谨慎地这样做。非常、非常谨慎。这是我们可能做的最重要的事情。在此基础上，其他、其他，除了AI以及你、你正在处理的这、这些其他问题：交通、能源生产、航空航天。

我们的下一代领导人应该专注于解决哪些问题，接下来还会发生什么？嗯，我是说，还有其他一些时间跨度更长的事情。显然，就是那些我所信奉的事情，比如把生命延伸到地球之外，让生命成为多行星物种。不，我非常相信某种阿西莫夫的《基地》系列，或者说这样一个原则：你，你真的想要。你知道，我建议阅读《基地》系列，但这就像，如果你，如果你知道很可能会有一场，你并不知道，但很可能会有另一场黑暗时代，

它似乎，我猜，崩塌会在某个时候发生。我不是在预测我们即将进入黑暗时代，但我们有一定概率会进入，特别是如果发生第三次世界大战的话。那么我们就要确保在别的某个地方，有足够多的我们，作为人类文明的种子，把文明带回来，并且也许缩短黑暗时代的长度。我认为这就是为什么我说，建立一个能够自我维持的基地很重要，理想情况下是在火星上，因为火星离地球足够远，以至于我捕捉到，一张地球搜查令，火星基地或许能幸存下来，比月球基地更有可能幸存下来。但我认为，一个月球基地和一个火星基地，那，那也许能够帮助这里的地球重新孕育生命。

这会非常重要，而且我会在可能发生的第三次世界大战之前把它完成。你知道，那个世纪我们经历了2场大规模世界大战，如果把冷战算进去就是3场。我认为我们永远不再发生另一场是不太可能的。波利会在某个时候发生，或者如果我们再发生一场，它就会是最后一场。是的，它，它。就可能只剩下放射性瓦砾。

是的，所以，再说一次，我不是在预测。这似乎就像是，嗯，如果你说，只要给定足够的时间，它会不会最有可能发生，给他足够的时间，因为这就是，这一直是我们过去的模式，所以。就像，你真的相信阿西莫夫的第零定律，第零定律，你采取最有可能支持未来人类的那一套行动。但我认为，可持续能源显然也确实非常重要，这属于同义反复，如果它不可持续，那它就是不可持续的。是的，我们离解决那个问题有多近？

嗯，我认为核心技术已经，已经具备了，包括风能、太阳能，还有，还有电池。根本问题在于，二氧化碳的成本中存在一种未经处理的自有配额？

如果所有事物都被正确定价，那么市场经济会运作得非常好。但当，当事物没有被正确定价，而某种具有，具有实际成本的东西却是零成本时，市场就会出现扭曲，阻碍其他技术的发展。所以，本质上任何会，会产生警察，并且会把，把棉花推入大气层的东西，顺便说一句，这也包括火箭。

我并没有把火箭排除在这之外。它必须有一个价格，然后你用一个低价把它锯掉，但接着是那个价格，然后根据那个价格是否对过去产生任何影响、对大气中100万的二氧化碳可能性产生任何影响，你可以上调或下调那个价格。但在没有价格的情况下，我们有点假装从地球深处和地下挖出数万亿吨化石燃料并把它排放到大气中，谁在假装那件事曾经、那、那、那导致坏结果的概率为零。而整个科学界都在说，很明显，它有，它显然会导致坏结果，你只是在改变大气中的化学成分。所以，所以这真的取决于人们和政府为……定价

碳，然后，然后正确的事情就会自动发生。这真的非常简单。我们该如何处理碳中心？我其实认为，我们可以应对目前的碳水平，甚至再高一点。而这听起来会……听起来像是我在收回先前的话，但实际上有一种观点认为，大气中更多的碳其实是好事，但只在一定程度以内。所以，如果回到200年前，我们实际上或许可以说当时有点缺碳。然后说，好吧，

好吧，富里奥的，就像，我们当时有，好像，变成每100万份里有890份碳，我们现在可能有点碳东西，现在大约是400，刚刚超过400这个关口。我认为400多的某个水平可能没问题。我们不必担心质疑碳或类似的事情。但现在，如果这种势头继续下去，我们开始升到600、800、1000、1500，那时事情就真的会变得非常古怪，而全球能源基础设施的巨大惯性正把我们带向那个方向。这非常……所以，公众和各位州长推动确保支付正确的碳价格，这一点非常重要。所以那将是关键所在。是的，我们的观众非常想知道你睡了多少个小时

昨晚睡了。

哦，我不知道，大约6、5或6个小时。我想是吧。我觉得我们知道这个问题的部分答案，因为你被困在韦斯特韦尔有一阵子。但是，但是我的意思是，在你平常的一天里，或者你，你，你困吗？你没睡很多，对吧？天哪，我看起来有那么糟吗？

你看起来很棒。好吧，想象一下，肩负这么多责任，你知道，又有这么多事情正在进行，这些问题仍然会让你夜不能寐吗，还是你觉得我们正在走向解决它们？

嗯，现在真正让我非常焦虑的只有那些事情，或者显然是 AI，那就像男孩们在那里，还有非常努力地推进 Tesla Model 3 的生产，而且谁正在取得良好进展，但这通常是艰苦的工作，不过这些是我目前生活中压力最大的两件事。是的。我们的观众真的很想知道，当今天出生的孩子到你这个年龄时，你希望世界会是什么样子？对，你希望世界是什么样子？

最好的情形是什么，比如说？我们解决了这些问题？那个世界是什么样子？让我想想，所以我认为，一幅美好的图景会是，你知道，我们真正大规模地转向可持续的电力生产和消费，从而使二氧化碳风险和海洋上升风险得到缓解？

而且我们不会面对这样的情况，你知道，佛罗里达和世界上相当大的部分都在水下，那会很棒，而不是，但要解决那个风险，它会在那里。你知道，我们，让我们在月球上有一个基地，面对一个海市蜃楼，大步走出去探索太阳系，所以在上面焊接工业，实质上是让人类文明走出去，并且，并且，并且让你能够，以至于任何人都可以？

如果他们愿意，就前往火星的月球或太阳系，让它真正负担得起。我确实认为，有多家公司在做这件事、形成竞争很重要，而不只是一场性，还有，AI 风险是，我想，存在某种善意的 AI，而且我们能够与那个 AI 实现共生。理想情况下，那个 AI……有个人能说出成员们的名字，但他对 AI 的优化目标应该是什么提出了一个很好的、一个建议：它的效用函数是什么？

你必须对此小心，因为如果你说要最大化幸福，而 AI 得出结论，认为幸福是多巴胺和血清素的函数，那么它就会抓住所有人类，往你的大脑里注入大量多巴胺和血清素。就像，好吧，那么，神圣的薄荷糖。听起来倒是相当不错。

我会，你亲爱的。嗯，我喜欢这样的定义，比如 AI 应该努力最大化人类的行动自由。最大化行动自由，本质上就是最大化自由。我喜欢这个定义。但我们确实希望集体人类智能与数字智能之间紧密耦合，而一个更新的链接正试图在这方面提供帮助，方式是在 AI 和你的、以及人类大脑之间创建一个接口，一个高带宽接口。在某种意义上，我们已经，我们已经是一条人行道，因为你的手机和电脑是你的一种延伸。只是低带宽输入输出，没错。

它只是低带宽，尤其是输出，我是说，基本上就是两个拇指。那么我们怎么解决那个问题？给它带宽，带宽这件事，这是一个带宽问题。而且我们都，我们现在也已经走到这一步了。我们都是，我们都是赛博格，只是低效率的赛博格，那么我们怎么，我们怎么让它变得更好？

我认为我们已经高于一个，我们有对立的接口。就像我们并没有进化出一个通信插孔，你知道，一些。所以基本上会有数量极其庞大的微小电极，当然，它们能够为你的大脑进行读取。你知道，在这种情况下，安全性相当重要，这还是最保守的说法。我刚才还在说，我不打算接入，我会让我的大脑保持物理隔离。

是的，嗯，我想很多人会选择那么做。但这有点像伊恩·班克斯的“新或蕾丝”，但不是，不过在关系的情况下，大概那东西从你出生时就在那里，或者它算是，它不是一种……算了，抱歉，回到他们喋喋不休的话题，或者退回来说，这会是，这里有一个你的数字延伸体。那就是一个 AI，你的 AI 延伸体，第三层智能。所以你有边缘系统、大脑皮层，以及第三层，也就是你的数字 AI 延伸体，而那种高带宽连接就是……什么？

实现紧身衣和减数分裂，我认为那是最好的结果。我，我希望如此，如果你知道，他有更好的想法。再谈谈你正在从事的另一个项目，我们的观众想多了解一点斯特林。

哦，你能告诉我们些什么吗？在做天网，希望不是天网，是天空中的互联网。嗯，我们，我们不太谈论星链。但本质上，它旨在为全世界提供低延迟、高带宽的互联网连接。实际上，卫星系统上不会有足够的车载认知处理能力，以任何方式成为像天网那样的东西。数字 AI 需要大量……超级智能需要地面上的大量大型服务器，仅仅是为了给这种强度提供动力。但这个天线是为了向那些没有任何互联网连接的人提供互联网连接？

而且它非常适合稀疏和人口稀少的、中等中等程度至少大多安静的有人居住地区，并为城市里宽容的人们提供一种选择，一种低成本的互联网接入选择。但我确实认为它会很重要，Starling 系统将在提供 SpaceX 开发行星际飞船所需的资金方面发挥重要作用。同时，是的，帮助那些即使拥有连接、但连接费用极其昂贵的人，并给城市地区的人们更多有竞争力的选择，非常酷。我必须问你，因为这是排名第一的问题，就回到火星这个话题：你设想第一个火星殖民地会采用什么样的政府？

布利策，那你的头衔是什么，对吧？对，没错，皇帝。哦，该死的修士？

我不知道。可能有点过头了。如果你是……我应该注意一下我的笑话，是的，不是每个人都听得懂反讽，必须记住这一点。所以我认为，我认为火星上最有可能的政府形式会是某种直接民主制，你们对议题进行投票，人们直接对议题投票，而不是采用代议制政府。当美国成立时，代议制政府是唯一在后勤上可行的方式，因为人们根本不可能，或者说是邪恶地即时通信，很多人甚至根本无法真正使用邮箱，或者当时甚至连邮局都非常原始，很多人不会写字。所以你必须采用某种形式的代议民主制，否则事情根本无法运作。

我想我的马斯最有可能。会是每个人都对每个议题投票，事情就是这样。我有几件事。

我会建议，也就是让鼓风机保持简短；长法律，就像那样。如果有很长的“不过”，那就是有什么可疑的事情正在发生。你知道，如果，如果法律的篇幅超过《指环王》的字数，而它确实超过了，惊人的是，那就像是有什么地方不对。所以法律的篇幅应该有一个上限，我应该能够消化它，就像为什么你可以读完宪法和所有修正案，你可以读完那些，也许只需要1个小时，而而而我们用它治理了如此庞大的文明，但现代法律却如此晦涩？

超级无聊的大部头。

那对几乎所有人来说都无法解读，所以我认为，直接民主，降低可以理解的低点。我认为应该存在某种滞后机制，比如废除一项法律应该比制定一项法律更容易，因为事情只会变成无人出席，你必须有某种东西来产生惯性。所以可能，我不知道正确的数字，也许是60/40。也许一项法律需要60%的支持才能生效，但任何高于40%的比例都可以取消一点。否则你就只会得到越来越多的降低，它们随着时间推移不断累积，它们治愈它们的时间，这有点像格列佛，你会被所有这些细小的绳子困住，

而你无法动弹。法律、规章和规章规章规章会让文明的动脉硬化。所以取消一项规章就应该比制定一项更容易。也许它们甚至应该有类似某种日落条款，这样它们就会自动失效，除非有足够的推动力让它们继续存在。我知道，我知道有一种肯定，只是我有兴趣再多听一点 Tesla 非常早期的情况，以及我是如何走到一起的，兄弟 Kimble 在这里，

我想我们可以把他请出来，你们可以稍微聊聊这件事。你们今晚可能会走运，我注意到你有一把吉他。

我会无视那句话。里面有些不错的吉他。不过我想今天这里有相当多的创业者，也有相当多感兴趣、关注 Tesla 的人，而它现在取得了非凡非凡的成功。你知道，这一切是怎么走到一起的？当你们在研究，我知道这是众所周知的？你知道，而你们当时，你们在寻找自己能够解决的问题。那些对话是什么样的？

是的，所以 C2e 回到，嗯，谢谢上来。关于那些我长期以来认为最重要、最值得投入的事情。我们回顾大学时代，电动汽车是我从那时起就在这里的东西，1819 也是如此。你最早是什么时候记得这里，当时我们谈到电动汽车，没错，第一次是，嗯，你谈了很多。我们过去经常随机进行头脑风暴，甚至在我们20 20岁的时候，而第一件事。

我记得我们当时集思广益，是为了解决医生之间的连通问题，我们正在公路旅行，从——我们家里有很多医生，所以我们掌握这些信息。但真正的想法是解决那个问题，当时我们从硅谷前往费城，一路集思广益，思考该怎么做。

这是在互联网出现之前，所以我们，你知道，在脑海里设计网络计算机、让医生彼此交流。这一切当然历经了超过25年，但这是我记得我们最早真正尝试解决世界性问题的时刻之一，而且除非那是一个世界性问题。那真的很重要。它。

就是没那么能引起我们的兴趣。电动汽车你谈了很长时间，但我记得有一次走进你家，这大概是在2002年或2003年，你把这些方案铺在那里，是Tesla团队或者更早的那些人做的，基本上说，你知道，我们要拿这辆Lotus Elise，把它改造成电动汽车，然后，你知道，我们坐下来谈了一会儿。而且重点并不太在于它能不能做到。

我想我们都相信这是可以做到的。

更多的只是那种认为应该做这件事的态度。然后从那里，是的，嗯，我最早做过的有意思的实习是关于用于电动汽车的超级电容器，所以这就是我最初来到硅谷的原因，大概是在93年，或者到了某个时间，是去一家名为Political Research的公司研究先进的超级电容器，想法是这可能成为电动汽车储能问题的解决方案。后来我从宾大毕业时，我原本要去斯坦福攻读材料科学和发明物理学博士，试图弄清楚有没有办法实现一种超高密度固态电容器，拥有足够的续航能力来驱动电动汽车，

所以我说影响它，所以那是，那是，那是95年，然后我不确定，这属于那种你可能投入很长时间，最后却发现其实没有，真的没有。

好的解决方案。你，你发表一篇论文，然后在实验室里拿到博士学位，但它的价值会是学术性的。所以在95年，我可以选择研究这个用于电动汽车的储能系统，或者尝试在建设互联网的过程中发挥作用。但互联网方面的事情当时正在现场发生，而电动、电动汽车技术则会自行缓慢发展？

无论我在不在那里。所以我想，好吧，先搁置大鼠研究，做些事情来帮助互联网，或者在互联网上做些有用的事情。就在那时，我和Kimbo谈了谈。你当时在加拿大工作，我说，嘿，我们为什么不试着在硅谷做这家、这家公司呢？

非常酷。我们买下了那个，我们是、我们是最先看到地图和逐门路线指引的人；它是由一家名叫Knapp Tech的公司开发的，他们从未燃烧过，从来没有上过互联网，而成为最先看到它的2个人类，实在太酷了。你可以画一张地图，输入地址，获得路线指引。这些事你们今天每个人大概都死了50次。而我们是最先看到它、把它放到互联网上的人。

那真的很酷。她是互联网上最早的地图和路线指引、黄页和白页，是的。所以，后来我们最终帮助很多出版物上线。因此，作为投资者和客户的有《纽约时报》公司、Knight-Ridder或Hearst，以及其他很多家？

而且，是的，但我一直想回到电动汽车领域，因为从本科和研究生时期起，那就是我的主要兴趣，而且，所以在我们之后，到仍然又做了1家互联网公司，因为觉得这取决于你，还没有充分发挥它、它的潜力。我们打造了这项不可思议的技术，但客户没有以正确的方式使用它。这有点像造出了，你知道，F-22战斗机，然后，然后你把它们卖给别人，他们让战斗机从山坡上滚下去撞向彼此。不是正确的使用方式，好吧，我想那就是，那就是决定你真的想去？

最终消费者。如果你拥有一项很棒的技术，你就会想一路做到最终消费者。别把这个告诉、告诉某家不懂得如何使用它的笨蛋传统公司。所以，是的。所以通过后来成为PayPal的X.com，那就是、那就是我们尝试利用互联网做成某件重大事情的方式。而且它算是朝着它的、它的目标走了部分路。在一个PayPal之后，我上市、上市了，而且、而且它们在2002年被eBay收购了，这实际上让包括我在内的一群人得以腾出手来，于是你去创办公司，而我开始在太阳能、电动汽车或太空之间权衡。我觉得太空似乎是最不可能有人去做的，

但至少有可能吸引创业时代，我不喜欢，喜欢，不会有人。

疯狂到去做太空，所以我最好去做太空。所以我先从太空开始，然后，大约1年半之后，在2003年。

我和JB Straubel以及Hal Rosen共进午餐。那是在埃尔塞贡多的一家鱼餐厅之类的地方。Hal Rosen曾参与太空和电动汽车领域，而JB当时刚刚、刚刚大学毕业，正和他一起工作，谈话转向了电动汽车。因为Howard曾做过一个叫Rosen Motors的项目，那就像是一家尝试中的evie初创公司，而我说，嗯，我一直对电动汽车超级感兴趣。

我本来打算以先进和降低能耗的储能为题攻读博士学位。我本来打算研究电动汽车的先进储能技术。所以 JB 说，嗯，你听说过一家叫 AC Propulsion 的公司吗？因为他们造出了一辆 T Zero 电动跑车作为原型。我当时想，哇，那太棒了，锂离子电池确实已经达到了这样一种能量密度水平，第一次让电动汽车能够拥有可观的续航里程。而且他们有一辆跑车，0 到 60 加速不到4秒，续航250英里。非常酷，

而那只是由……它只是一辆套件车，所以没有车顶、安全气囊或热控制系统，而且极其不可靠，没有产品化，但它是一个概念验证。所以我从 AC Repulsion 那里获得了试驾机会，我当时想，哇，你们真应该把它商业化，这会向人们展示电动汽车能做什么。我花了几个月时间试图让 AC Propulsion 投产 T 0，可他们就是对此不感兴趣。令人惊讶的是，他们想做一辆电动 Scion，

你知道，就是那种方盒子汽车。但问题是，这辆电动桑德拉可能要花70,000美元，或者你可以花100,000美元造一辆跑车。

好吧，但根本没人会买那辆电动赛伦特，但燃料也许会对抗电动跑车。所以，在纠缠了他们几个月后，我终于说，听着，如果你们不打算把 T Zero 商业化，要是由我来做，你们介意吗？他们说，不，不介意。去做吧。

就像，太好了。所以我要和 JV 一起做这件事，而且我说，但如果你们……如果你们打算做……如果你们打算尝试把 T Zero 产品化，还有一些同样有兴趣做这件事的团队是你们应该谈谈的。所以这就是沃特弗·哈德·马克特·霍平和伊恩·赖特加入的缘由。不，我认为坦率地说，那很可能是我职业生涯中最大的错误。我……我认为，每当你觉得自己可以鱼与熊掌兼得时，那你可能就错了。所以我以为我可以继续经营 SpaceX，把20%的时间投入 Tesla，这样就没问题了，但实际上并非如此。事情真的崩溃了。经历了地狱，我们要给公司重新注资，金梅尔在那里唱着时间。所以《硅谷》准确还是不准确，那是……

那部剧，是的。它从大约第4集开始变得非常准确。所以它花了几集才算站稳脚跟，前几集给我的感觉是，好莱坞在嘲弄好莱坞想象中的硅谷，这个就不太……你知道，不太到位。但到了第1季大约第4或第5集，它真的开始变好，然后到第2季就惊人地贴近现实。其实，事实比小说更离奇，你在《硅谷》那部剧里看到的所有疯狂事情，现实要比那疯狂得多。是的，

你看过那两个，对吧，是的，我只是觉得，哇。那得留到下次再讲了，福尔说？

有人让我们结束了。我替观众问最后一个问题。你最喜欢电影《三个朋友》里的哪首歌？嗯，我们不必……我们不必这么做，如果……如果你们愿意一起唱的话。好吧。所以，所以乔纳其实是3个人里负责跳舞的那个？

我们……我们从小时候起就一直在演奏、唱这首歌，还跳这支舞。所以我们要在台上表演，你们可以一起唱。嗯，我们唱第一节，然后你们可以在第二节一起唱。这真的会很糟糕。是的，我说糟透了。我把跳舞那部分弄混了。当蒙巴斯击中天空时，跟我来。你会和我沿着生物群落走，再见。好，现在大家一起来。再见，小船，你……微笑吧，我的小毛茛花，你说，待一会儿怎么样？

宾带我飞上天空，而你和我走过荒野，嗯，这真的赢了。你

We we met a number of years ago in part I was writing a movie I was going in to pitch a movie called interstellar at the time Steven Spielberg was the director and he wanted to do a grounded Movie about the future of space travel so I came in to my pitch was very short I said the movies gonna be 10 minutes long because it's not happening it was about 10 years ago We're not going there's no money left This is not a priority for us anymore And then in the course of and somehow.

I got the job in the course of Writing the movie working with Kip Thorne a physicist invited me in a physics conference one night And I got seated next to Ilana We've been friends ever since the irony of that being I wound up becoming friends with a guy who I think personally is moving the needle back in the other direction And up by himself at this point More than more than anyone.

I can think of so the net result is I think we are going back to the moon I think we are going to Mars, and I think a lot of it is because of you So one of the questions we got here today One of the questions that you guys have submitted the night that I love is simple Mars how can we help?

What see so In the short term Mars is really about getting a spaceship built We're we're making good progress on this on the on the ship and the booster Codenamed PFR What is this tan for again well, it's like sort of a roar shy yes an acronym form And It is very big and I gave a presentation on this at the International Astronautical Congress in Australia last year And that design is evolving rapidly we're actually building that That should but that ship right now The I Think right now that like the biggest thing.

That would be helpful is just general support and encouragement and a good goodwill I Think once we build it there will be Well it will have a a Point of proof something that the Companies and countries can then go and do like they currently don't think it's possible so if we show them that it is then I think they will Fill up their game, and they will build Interplanetary transport vehicles as well Now once that has been built, and there is a There's a means of getting.

I'll go and people to and from Mars as well as turn from the moon other places in the solar system and I think That's that's really where There's a matter of entrepreneurial entrepreneurial resources that are needed because you got to build out the entire base of Industry everything that allows your human civilization to exist and it's gonna be harder a Lot harder in a place like Mars or the moon We need some volunteers to be colonists do we have any comments pollen tears here?

I'm actually not many hands raised by the way I Mean the moon of Mars often thought of is like is this some escape ski escape hatch for rich people but I it won't be that at all, it's In anyone who look for the only people that go to Better Mars. It'll be far more dangerous.

I mean really it's it kind of reads like Shackleton's ad full Antarctic explorers, you know it's like Difficult dangerous good chance you will die Excitement for those who survive That kind of thing and I think there's not many people who actually want to go in the beginning because all those things I said are true but there'll be some who will for whom the excitement of the frontier and exploration exceeds the concern of danger and And it will start off building the first elementary infrastructure just a base to create propellant a power station Blast domes in which to grow crops All the sort of fundamentals without which we you cannot survive and then and then really there's gonna be an explosion of entrepreneur opportunity because mas will need everything

from Iron foundries to pizza joints to like pizza joints Like oh, I should really have great bars The Mars bar right Like I would love dad What do you think the timeline for this is so I'm feeling pretty optimistic about the timeline although I'm I can't be a little sometimes my timelines are a little you know People have told me that My timelines historically have been optimistic and So trying to recalibrate to some degree here But I can tell you what what I know currently this case is that where we are building the first ship the first Mars Orange over interplanetary ship Right now,

and I think we'll be able to be able to do short flights short sort of up and down flights Probably sometime in the first half of next year.

This is a very big Booster in ship the liftoff thrust of this would be about twice that of a seven-five So it's it's capable of doing 150 metric tons to to orbit it and be fully reusable So the the expendable payload is around around double that number so What it'll what's amazing about the ship assuming we can make Pulling wool and rapid reusability work is that we can reduce the cost marginal cost per flight?

Dramatically by orders of magnitude compared to where it is today But this this question of reusability is so fundamental to rocketry it is the it is the fundamental fundamental breakthrough that's needed if you consider aircraft for example the You can Lease a 747 and do a return flight from Cal Bullock.

Ah go from California to Australia For half a million dollars, that's what it cost to Lisa 747 fully round trip to Australia which is far To buy a single agent to have a prop plane a good one would Would be about one and a half million dollars, and that can't even reach, Australia and it's and it's tiny compared to a 747 so what that means is like a it cost less to - take it - use a giant plane with huge cargo for a long trip then at Night that costs way less than buying a small plane for a short trip in the aircraft world and the same actually is true of rocketry the be a VFR flight will actually cost less then then our Falcon one flight bit back in today that Was about a five or six million dollar marginal cost per flight they were confident that VFR

will be less than that So that that's profound and that is what will enable the creation of a affirmative base on the moon any city on Mars And that's the Equality of like the Union Pacific Railroad or or having Ships that work across the oceans Until you can get there, there's no way for all of the entrepreneurial energy to Do you can't you can't do anything there's no way for the flowers to bloom Once you can get there the opportunity is immense and So we're gonna do our best to get you there,

and then make sure that there's an environment in which Entrepreneurs can Laura, SH and And then I think it'll be it'll be amazing a big part of that and we've talked about this is Inspiring people to look again like this.

You know we talked about this yesterday It was our grandparents who went to the moon, and we have not gone back since you know in my lifetime No one's gone to the moon You and I were having a conversation last year about what to put in Falcon Heavy? and and the kind of What's the cargo?

And the idea was to to use that as an opportunity to inspire people again Carl Sagan had a beautiful thought many many years ago there if you just get enough people to look at the Earth from a distance that if we get them to focus on the problems here and on the possibilities of space exploration I Was fortunate enough to be with you at launch control when Falcon Heavy? Launched a few weeks back and we made a little movie.

We've called it a trailer That that sums up that experience we have it we have it here.

We thought we'd play it you guys again This is two minutes that that does a pretty good job of giving you the feeling of what it was like To be there when fucking everyone Yeah We really want we wanted to get the public year to warranty of getting excited about the possibility of something new happening in space of the space frontier getting pushed forward the goal of this was to inspire you and Make you believe again.

Just as people believed in the Apollo era that anything is possible That picture at the end is a picture of one of the circuit boards inside the Roadster window But we tried confused the aliens as much as possible As if you look carefully there's also a little Hot Wheels version of the Roadster With a tiny little astronaut in the hot wheels roadster on the dashboard How was just by a basketball Nora Norse just that and so if you guys have any suggestions let us know I Think for me watching those two boosters Come down side by side it felt like a transformative moment it felt like a oh we can do anything and that's the culmination I was really struck there by the culmination of you know a singular vision and hundreds or thousands of very talented people

working together to make sure Every sitting in launch control and looking at the sheer amount of variables that you guys are clocking in those moments before the launch Wind speed at different altitudes and the status of all the different 27 engines and then How do you manage how do you?

Your very hands on with the details, but you're also looking at the bigger bigger picture How do you manage your time? How do you how do you how do you parse you know? How do you zoom in and zoom out and make sure that all these things are coming together?

Well at at SpaceX almost all my time is spent on Engineering and design, it's probably 80 and 90% And then Gwynne Shotwell who's president chief operating officer takes care of the business operations the company, which is what allows me to do that?

Yeah, I think in order to make the right decisions you have to understand something you need to understand something you add a detailed level You cannot make good decision So But I'd like to just probably like the you know where you saw there as a result of an incredible team and that's base X Super talented people who really work like crazy.

They make that happen you Know I think my role is to make sure that they have an environment where they can they can really where the talents can really come to the floor and You know and but I can't tell you how honored and grateful I am to work with such a great team Everyone in this room is inspired by you. Who are you inspired by what Kanye West obviously? Today Me too fred astaire fred astaire.

You know you should see my dance moves We may we may see some dance moves unless you love Fred Astaire. He's amazing if you haven't watched his movies. They're amazing.

Yeah, I Think for me when I look at all of all of the things you've undertaken to do the the commonality is With Tesla with SpaceX shoulder city now with the boring company It feels like you're seeing a firmly established a mature Industry That is ripe for sort of a quantum shift that there's there's an opportunity there for you know in the case of cars its electrification Which drastically changes?

You know the complexity of an automobile and potentially down down the line the? Expense of it with rockets it's the usability of it With with solar it's about a firmly established energy system. That's about to be massively disrupted.

This is having And with the boring company it's about looking at infrastructure projects would typically take decades and billions of dollars and looking to to reduce the Complexity that is that is that how you is that how you? You know is that how you see the world. Do you see the things that don't work and can be made better? No but I mean I Don't like look at things that say. Okay. What's the rank ordered?

You know business opportunity From a financial standpoint or anything like that It's a it's really just like these are the there's some things that are that don't seem to be working that are important for the You know for our life and for the future to be good and I've said that if If you're before me to say like where is the One way to do or a suggestive rate or return estimate on various industry opportunities I would put Arrows like basically building rockets and cars pretty close to the bottom of the list But there would have to be the dumbest things to do just just because you know look at the auto industry and In the US auto industry the only two companies that haven't gone bankrupt At least at some point are Tesla and Ford every other company got

bankrupt, or was failing and got acquired There's only two companies that have gone bankrupt, and there's a big graveyard of companies that did so and engineering up against entrenched competitors There's no III gave basically both SpaceX and Tesla from the beginning a probability of less than 10% of likely likely to succeed So why do it?

Well in the case of SpaceX I just kept wondering why we were not making progress towards Sending people to Mars Why we didn't have a base on the moon Here where we're at the sort of space hotels that were promised in 2001 the movie It's like You know it's uh. It. Just wasn't happening year after year. Yeah, I was getting me down. I look at the NASA website I was like Does where does it say when we go to Mars isn't?

so Initially for SpaceX for example I thought well The genesis of SpaceX was not to create a company But but really had it how do we get NASA's budget to be bigger that was initially to go so? I came up with this little small philanthropic mission, which would be to send a small greenhouse to the surface of Mars?

It's called Mars oasis and And they were one landing the seats were being dehydrated nutrient gel Hydrate upon landing, and and then you have this little greenhouse And then the money shot would be you know green plants against the right background Recently learned that money shot has a meaning that That I didn't aware of but The the you know, I think that that would get people excited about Rekindles the spirit of a follower essentially and as I thought it more more into what it would take to do that I learned that The fundamental issue is actually the cost of access to space Rockets were super expensive and the cost has per pound to kilogram to orbit had actually gone up over the years not down and it was like okay,

well if you it won't matter if we are able to do this philosophic mission and It generates a lot of will to go to Mars.

That's not going to matter if there's no way So at my second or third trip back from Russia I was like whoa there's got to be a way to build rockets There's gotta be a way to solve the rocket falling I missed our reading a lot of books and rockets and They're better sort of a first principles analysis of a varrock.

It just broke down the materials that are in a rocket what would it cost to buy those materials what verses the price the rocket and there's a gigantic difference between the Raw material cost the rocket and the finish cost the rocket so there must be something wrong happening in Going from the constituent atoms to the final shape and Found that certainly to be true and then and then why won't people trying to make reusability work It was very difficult to make rocket reusability work and then unfortunately the the Space Shuttle ended up being a counter example of don't don't try to make reusability work because spatial data ended up costing more per flight than an expandable vehicle of equivalent capability So for a long time people used in the space

shuttle as an example of why reusability is dumb You can't take a single case example and make an entire theory out of it so There's no question in my mind that if you could read the Rockets effect It has to be true reuse which means Rapid and complete reuse the problem with the space shows only a portion of the System came back like the big orange tank which was also the primary airframe was discarded every time and the parts that were used were incredibly difficult to refurbish So they kind of reached the only country reuse that matters is if it's rapid and complete It's that the only thing you're changing between flights far from scheduled maintenance is the propellant So we embarked upon that journey to create SpaceX in 2002 and In the beginning I

wouldn't actually wouldn't let my friends invest because I don't want to lose their money.

I thought it was like you Know I really lose my own money, so And then We almost did die at SpaceX actually so we I budgeted four or three flights I mean technically I did have a plan where I had to have the money from PayPal I had like 180 million from PayPal. I thought you know I'll allocate half of that to SpaceX and Tesla and SolarCity and That should be fine. I'll have 90 million Lexus plots.

You know But but then what happened is Things cost more and took longer than and I thought so I had a choice of either Put the rest of the money in or their companies are going to die and It's like set up putting all the money in and firing money or rent from friends 2008 was brutal if you Yeah, 2008 we had the third consecutive failure of the Falcon rocket for SpaceX Tesla Almost went bankrupt. We closed our financing around 6 p. m..

Christmas Eve 2008 it was the last hour of the last day that it was possible We would have gone back up two days after Christmas otherwise And I've got divorced I was like rough, man Governor Scott yes You do wait it.

It poses a question or maybe you just answer the question of why is no one else doing these things What's your pain threshold yeah, well, it's real high So yeah SpaceX is alive, but it's kind of at sea so is Tesla If things have just gone a little bit the other way Both companies would be dead, and I'd like one of the most difficult choices.

I have ever faced in life was was in 2008 and I think I had I think Maybe thirty million dollars left thirty or forty one dollars left in 2008 I had two choices I Could put it all into one company, and then the other company would definitely die Or split it between the two companies and but if I split it between two companies then both might die And you know when you put your blood sweat and tears into creating something a bully something.

It's like a child And so it's like which one am I gonna let one starve to death I Can bring myself to do it surprised. I split the money between two Fortunately, thank goodness they both came through We've got a question for the audience that builds on that. What was your biggest failure, and how did it change you? What was your biggest failure and how did I change you?

Have to really think hard about that failure There's your answer well, there's a ton of failures along the way, that's for sure Like I said as a support for SpaceX the first three launches failed and We were just barely able to scrape together enough Parts and and money to do the fourth launch that both launch should fail who would have been dead so multiple failures along the way I Tried very hard to get the right expertise in for for SpaceX I tried hard to to find a great chief engineer for the rocket but in that the good Chief Engineers wouldn't join and The bad ones well there was no no point in hiring him so I ended up being chief engineer of the rocket So if I could have found somebody better,

then we would have maybe had less than three failures How do you how do you plan a business where you know?

The rocket business, you know some of these things are gonna blow up on the launch pad How does the business plan work I?

Don't really have a business plan Yeah, I haven't had it, but I had a business by her way back in the zip two days But but these things are just always wrong so I just just been father's business plans after that Yeah I mean, I think you know wishful thinking for sure is a Source of many problems and in many walks life a Business or personal business or personal wishful thinking Causes a lot of a lot of trouble you really have to ask you know whether something It is true or not that Doesn't make sense and if it ever feels like Too easy it probably is You know the yeah But for the drama of SpaceX I think Tesla's actually Been probably 2,000 might old little problem a dose of overtime Practices drama magnet,

it's crazy How do you I mean a lot of people want to know you know you're managing three or four companies now each of them trying to do something revolutionary each of the a business that has historically been regarded as Impossible to challenge or disrupt.

How do you how do you prioritize? How do you how do you how do you prioritize between? The different companies how do you prioritize? How do you spend your time?

Yeah, absolutely actually could trouble you for a water I've got a bit of a cult my voice is a bit hoarse Too it tells a top priority For business time almost all of it is really dedicated to SpaceX and Tesla it may sound like I've got a lot of different endeavors, but It's overwhelmingly SpaceX and Tesla in terms of try of allocation So it's a and then for non-business stuff, it's Almost entirely kid stuff my kids are here here today actually put them on to South by Southwest everything a good time But they went so the West world Exhibit or it's just really amazing very haven't seen the West world What do you call it exhibit or a I don't know what you just call it.

It's a theme park It's really incredibly well done, and I took the kids they yesterday to had a great time together I Think probably one the the biggest of us are standing is that I'm actually not an investor I'm so much fielding investor invested things. I don't actually don't miss anything back the only Public security that I would have any kind is Tesla and then the next biggest is SpaceX and and then The boring company Hennis Tata.

It more as a joke because there will be a funny name for a company You know we put we put the zero and bring I mean it's like Doesn't make any sense When we when we talk about everyone you first told me that you were thinking about tunnels And I must tell you about that years ago, okay, it's like a long time ago.

Like I thought you're joking yeah It was I was joking but It's not because of some epiphany that I had one day Driving on the 405 That's how it gets called translated, so now I was talking four tunnels for years and years for probably five years or four years at least Whenever I'd give a talk and people would ask me about what opportunities you do see in the world I'd say tunnels can someone please build tunnels so after four or five years of begging people to build tunnels and Still no tunnels.

I was like okay. I wanna build a tunnel Have missing something here So Yes, I was like basically talking fuels Arizona for tunnels right for several years, and then said well let's find out what it takes to build a tunnel and Yeah, so started digging a tunnel I wanted to start the tunnel From where I could see it from my office at SpaceX it so stuff.

I said well Let's just cobble for part of the parking lot across the road so I can see if it's if anything's happening or not And then we named our first boring machine Godot because I kept waiting for it no it came Finally did and and we got it going and now we're making good progress and We were finding the company for merchandise sales So, thank you for anyone who's bought a flamethrower You will not be sorry or maybe you will Won't be boring We have a video I think here of the latest vision for the boring company it turns a Howard You know this great Attitude I Think you know when we were first talking about the concept,

you know tunnels feel like a resolutely old-school Solution to approach that that I invented tunnels And I always tell holding out hope for the flying car that you asked me one simple question that Answered the question for me about flying cars kind of forever Which was would you want your neighbor to have a flying car.

Yes, exactly? This is exactly the question Oh you want to fly car how about everyone around you has a flying car too? Oh? That doesn't sound so good Yeah, and I think one of the interesting things about tunneling is it's one of these things that you know there's no a lot of More competition there. It's not a you know. It's it's something that's right for change, so how do you yeah?

You talked about the philosophy with godot was to just keep running. It basically until you figured out. Why it can't run any faster Yes The point coming to be clear is it's a it's like literally 2 percent of my time. It's probably 20 percent of my tweets The tweets do not correlate to actual time spent The I mean, I sort of just have fun with the boring company But my time allocation is about especially about 2% Talk about your time allocation.

I think one of the things you spend an awful lot of time thinking about I know Is artificial intelligence and something that you and I have a shared interest and it's something that our audience is interested in as well The question here is a lot of experts in AI don't share the same level of concern that you do about the danger off pools What what's yours last words what's what specifically do you believe that they don't?

Well the biggest issue I see with so-called AI experts is that they they think they know more than they do And they think they're smarter than they actually are in general We are all much smarter than we think we are but much less smart dumber than we think you out by a lot so This is this tends to plague plague smart people like you just can't that they define themselves by their intelligence And they they don't like the idea that a machine can be way smarter than them so they discount the idea which is Fundamentally flawed that's the wishful thinking situation I'm really quite close to I'm very close to the cutting edge in AI and it scares the hell out of me It's capable of vastly more than almost anyone knows and the rate of improvement is exponential

But you can see this in things like alphago which went from in the span of maybe Six to nine months it went from being unable to beat even a reasonably good go player So then beating the European world champion who was ranked 600 then beating Lisa doll for five What been world champion for many years then beating the current world champion, then beating everyone while playing simultaneously then Then there was alpha zero which crushed alphago a hundred to 0 and alpha zero just learnt by playing itself and It can play basically any game that you put the rules in for if you whatever rules you give it Just literally read the rules play the game every superhuman for any game Nobody expected that great of improvement to guess those so those same experts Who

think AI is not progressing at the rate that I'm saying?

I think you will find that their predictions for things like go and and other AI advancements have Therefore their batting average is quite. Weak.

It's not good That we'll see this also with with self-driving I think probably by intermixture self-driving will be well encompass essentially all modes driving and be At least a hundred to two hundred percent Safer than a person by the end of next year we're talking like maybe 18 months from now Netsertive study on on Tesla's autopilot version 1 which is relatively primitive and found that it was a 45 percent reduction in highway accidents And that's despite.

What a pilot one being just version 1 Version 2. I think will be At least 2 or 3 times better. That's the current version that's running right now So the rate of improvement is really dramatic we have to figure out some way to ensure that The advent of digital super intelligence is one which is Symbiotic with humanity, I think that's the single biggest existential crisis that we face and the most pressing one And how do we do that I?

Mean if we take it that it's inevitable at this point that some version of AI is coming down the 1 How do we how do we steer through them well?

I'm not normally an advocate of Regulation and oversight I mean I think it's once you generally go inside minimizing those things But this is a case where you have a very serious danger to the public and it's therefore there needs to be a public body that Has insight and then oocytes on to confirm that everyone is?

developing AI safely This is extremely important I think a danger of AI is much greater than the danger of nuclear warheads landlocked and Nobody would suggest that we allow anyone to just build nuclear warheads if they That would be insane and mock my words AI is far more dangerous than nukes Far so why do we have no regulatory oversight, this is insane Which question you've been asking for a long time.

I think it's a question That's coming to the forefront over the last year where you begin to realize that it doesn't necessarily I think if we we've all been focused in on the idea of artificial superintelligence Right which is clearly a danger, but maybe you know a little further out?

What's happened over the last year is you've seen the artificial what I would be calling artificial stupidity You're talking about you know algorithmic manipulation of social media like we're in it now. It's starting. It's starting to happen How do we how do we is it what's the intervention at this point?

I'm not really all that worried about the short-term stuff things that are Like narrow AI is not a species level risk It will it will result in dislocation in lost jobs and You know that sort of better weaponry and that kind of thing, but it is not a fundamental species level risk Whereas digital super intelligence is?

So it's really all about laying the groundwork to make sure that if humanity collectively your science that Creating digital super intelligence is the right move then? We should do so very very carefully Very very carefully This is the most important thing that we could possibly do Building on that other other than AI and The the other issues that you're you're tackling Transportation energy production aerospace.

What issues should our next generation of leaders be focused on solving what else is coming down the line Well I mean there there are other things that are on a longer time scale The obviously the things that I believe in like extending life beyond Earth making life multiplanetary No a big believer in a sort of Asimov's Foundation series or the principle that you you really want to You know I recommend reading the foundation series, but It's like if you if you know that there's a there's likely to be you don't know But there's likely to be another Dark Ages,

which It seems my guess is the fall there will be at some point I'm not predicting that we're about to enter a Dark Ages But that there's some probability that we will particularly if there's a third world war Then we want to make sure that there's enough of us of a seed of human civilization somewhere else to bring civilization back and perhaps shorten the length of the dark ages I Think that's why I said that it's important to get a self-sustaining base Ideally on Mars because Mars is far enough away from Earth that I caught that a Warrant earth the Mars base might survive is more likely to survive than a moon base But I think a moon base and a Mars base That That could perhaps Help regenerate life back here on earth.

It would be really important, and I'd get that done before a possible World War 3 You know that's the century we had two massive world wars three if you count the Cold War I Think it's unlikely that we'll never have another The Poli will be at some point or if we have another one it'll be the last Yeah, it it. Just could be radioactive rubble.

Yeah so Again, I'm not predicting This seems like well, if you say given enough time will it be most likely given him of time because this is This is has been our pattern in the past so Like you really believe in the zeroth law of Asimov zeroth law you take the set of actions most likely to support the humanity of the future But I think that sustainable energy is also obviously really important, that's tautological if it's not sustainable its unsustainable Yeah, how close early to solving that problem?

Well, I think that the core technologies are are there with the wind solar with with batteries The the fundamental problem is that there's an unprocessed own allottee in the cost of of co2?

The the market economics works very well, if things are priced correctly But when there's when things are not priced correctly And something that has it has a real cost that has zero cost then that's where you get distortions in the market that inhibit the progress of of other technologies so Essentially anything that That produces cop, and it will push push cotton into the atmosphere which includes rockets by the way.

I'm not excluding rockets from this It has to be a price and then You sawed off with a low price but then that price and then depending upon whether that price has any effect on the past a million a Possibility of co2 the atmosphere you can adjust that price up for down But in the absence of a price we sort of pretend that digging trillions of tons of Fossil fuels from deep and Under the earth and putting it into the atmosphere who were pretending that that had that that that has no probability of a bad outcome And the entire scientific community is saying obviously It has it's gonna have a bad outcome obviously you just you're changing the chemical constituents in the atmosphere so So it's really up to people and governments to put to put a price on

Carbon, and and then automatically the right thing happens It's really straightforward What do we do with the carbon Center I actually think we can manage with the current carbon level or even a little bit higher It's and this is gonna sound It sound like I'm backtracking, but there's actually an argument that More carbon in the atmosphere is is actually good, but up to a point So We might actually arguably have been a little carbon starved if you go back 200 years ago And say okay,

well furio's go with like we had like turning 890 parts per million of carbon we're probably a little carbon stuff now we're about 400 just past 400 mark I think somewhere in the 400s probably okay We don't have to worry about to question carbon or anything like that But now if this momentum keeps going and we start going up to six hundred eight hundred a thousand fifteen hundred That's where things get really squirrely and The sheer momentum of the world's energy infrastructure is leading us in that direction It's very so it's just very important that the The public and the governor's pushed to ensure the correct price of carbon is paid So that that will be the thing that matters Yeah our audience is very interested in knowing how many hours of sleep

you got last night.

Oh I don't know about six five or six. I think right I Feel like we know part of the answer this cuz you were trapped in West well for a while But, but how do I mean on a Regular day for you, or you are you are you sleepy you're not sleeping a lot right geez do I look that bad?

You look great Okay, just imagine with the amount of responsibilities with the amount of you know with what you've got going on to these problems still keep You up at night, or do you think we're on our way to solve it?

Well right now the only things that are really stressing me out in a big way or AI obviously that's like boys there and and working really hard on Tesla Model 3 production and who making good progress, but it's Usually hard work, but those are the two most stressful things my life right now Yeah Our audience really wants to know What do you hope the world will look like for children born today when they're your age Right, what do you hope for the world to look like?

What's the best-case scenario say? We solve these problems? What's that world look like? Let's see so I Think the a good picture would look like You know we're really substantially transferred to sustainable generation and consumption of electricity So that the Does the co2 risk and the ocean rising risk is mitigated?

and we're not looking at like you know having, Florida and And sort of large portions to the world underwater, that'd be great that not But to have addressed that risk that'll be there. You know us For us to have a base on the moon face a mirage big out there exploring the solar system so welding industry on it essentially having a human civilization go out there and And and have you such that anyone can?

go the moon of Mars or the solar system if they want to making it really affordable I Do think it's important that this competition of their multiple companies doing this not just a sex and And that a I risk is that I guess there's the sort of a benign AI and that were able to achieve a symbiosis with that AI Ideally the AI There's somebody who can members name but had a good a suggestion for what the Optimization of the AI should be what's its utility function?

You have to be careful about this because you say maximize happiness and the AI concludes that happiness is function of dopamine and serotonin So just captures all humans and jacks your brain with large amounts of dopamine serotonin Like okay, so holy mint It sounds pretty good though.

I'll you beloved Well I like the definition of like the I should try to maximize the freedom of action of humanity Maximize the freedom of action maximize freedom essentially I like that definition But we do want to close coupling between collective human intelligence Digital intelligence And a newer link is trying to help in that regard by Creating a an interface between a high bandwidth interface between AI and your and human brain There were already we're already a sidewalk in a sense that That your phone and your computer a kind of extension of you Just low bandwidth input-output exactly.

It's just low bandwidth Particularly output, I mean two thumbs basically So how do we solve that problem? Give it the bandwidth bandwidth thing it's a bandwidth issue And we've all we've also come to it now We're all we're all cyborgs were just low efficiency cyborgs, so how do we how do we make it better?

I think we've got above a We've got opposed interface Like we didn't evolve to have a communications Jack You know some So there's gonna be essentially the vast numbers of tiny electrodes That are able to read right for your brain of course. You know security is pretty important in the situation say the least I was just saying I'm not coming with I'm keeping my brain air-gapped.

Yeah well I think a lot of people will choose to do that But it's a bit like Ian banks is new or lace, but not but in the case of relation sort of that that's there from when you're born or it's sort of it's not a Sort of I'm sorry to back them yackin over back up this would be this there's a digital extension of you That is an AI the AI extension of you a tertiary layer of intelligence So you've got your limbic system your cortex, and and the tertiary layer Which is the digital AI extension of you and that high bandwidth connection is what?

achieves the tights and meiosis I think that's the best outcome I I Hope so if you know he's got better ideas And Talking about another project that you're working on that her audience wants to know a little bit more about sterling.

Oh Can you tell us anything Doing Skynet hopefully not Skynet its internet in the sky Well we We don't talk that much about StarLink But essentially it's intended to provide low latency high bandwidth Internet connectivity throughout the world That actually will not be enough cognitive processing car onboard the satellite system to to in any way be a Skynet thing like it's Digital AI requires a lot of super intelligence requires a lot of big servers on the ground just to power intensity But this antenna to be to provide people with Who don't have any internet connectivity with Internet connectivity?

and it's very good for sparse and sparsely populated in moderate moderate least mostly quiet populated areas and forgiving people in cities a choice of in your low-cost choice of internet access But I do think it's gonna be important the Starling system will be important in providing the funding necessary for SpaceX to develop interplanetary spacecraft And at the same time yeah helping people who have even though or super expensive connectivity and giving people in urban areas more of a competitive choice very cool I have to ask you because it's the number one question just Going back to Mars What kind of government do you envision for the first Martian colony?

Blitzer and what's your title yeah? Yeah exactly Emperor Oh goddamn friar?

I don't know Might be too much If you're what I should watch my jokes yeah, not everyone gets irony must remember So I think the I think most likely the the form of government on Mars would be somewhat of a direct democracy where You vote on issues where people vote directly on issues instead of going to representative government in When the United States was formed Representative government was the only thing that was logistically feasible Because people there's no way it was or evil to communicate instantly a lot of people's didn't even have really access to Mail boxes or there wasn't even the post office is very primitive a lot of people couldn't write So you had to have some form of representative democracy Or things just wouldn't work at all.

I think my mas most likely. It's gonna be people at everyone votes on every issue and That's how it goes. I've a few things.

I'd recommend which is keep blowers short long laws it's like that's That's something suspicious is going on if there's long though You know if you if the size of law exceeds the word count of Lord of the Rings Which it does Amazingly, then it's like something's wrong So there should be a limit to the size of the law that I should be able to digest it like how come you can read the Constitution and all of the amendments like you can read those and maybe an hour and And and we govern so much of a civilization by that and yet modern law is this obtuse?

Super boring tome.

That's indecipherable to almost anyone so I think direct democracy Lowers lows that are comprehensible I think having some kind of hysteresis on Like it should be easier to remove a law than Create one because things just get to a no-show you have to have something that's gonna come inertia So probably I don't want the right number of you, maybe it's like 60/40 Maybe you require a 60% to get a law in place, but any number above 40% can remove a little Otherwise you just get lowers just accumulate over time they cure their time and it's sort of like Gulliver where you just get trapped by all these tiny strings,

and you can't move You get hardening of the arteries of civilization with law with rules and rules rules rules So it should be just easier to get rid of rule then let's put one in Maybe they should even have like a some kind of sunset clause So that they just automatically expire unless there's enough of an impetus to keep them around I Know I know there's an affirmative, it's just I'm interested in hearing a little bit more about the very early days with Tesla, and how I came together brother Kimble is here,

I thought we'd bring him out you guys could talk a little bit about it You guys might get lucky tonight, I noticed you have a guitar.

I'm gonna ignore that It had some good guitar But I guess there are a fair number of entrepreneurs here today and a fair number of people interested looking at Tesla, which now extraordinary extraordinary success of it You know how did how did this come together and when you in when you guys were looking at I know famously? You know and you guys were you were looking at problems you could solve How those conversations look like?

Yeah, so the C2e back in well, thanks coming on About the things that I thought would be most important to work on for a long time. We'll look back to college days and Electric cars are something I've been here since and so is 1819 When do you first recall here when we talk about electric cars that's correct first time was well you talk about a lot We we used to brainstorm a lot randomly even in we were 20 20 years old and the first thing.

I remember us brainstorming was solving connectivity amongst doctors and we were on a road trip from We a lot of doctors in the family so we had the information But the idea was really to solve that problem where we from Silicon Valley to Philadelphia Brainstorming how you do it.

This is before the internet, so we you know in our minds designing Network computers doctors talking This is all happened of course over 25 years, but it's one of the sort of the first time I remember us Really trying to solve a world problem and unless it was a world problem. That was really important. It.

Just wasn't that interesting to us Electric cars you talked about for a long time, but I remember walking into your house once it this is in Polly 2002 or 2003 and You had these plans laid out that The team of Tesla had or the earlier guys had basically said you know we're gonna take this Lotus Elise We're gonna convert it in electric car and you know we sat down and talked about it for a bit And and it wasn't so much that it Could be done.

I think we all believe it could be done.

It was more just the attitude that it should be done And then from there Yeah, well the the first internships that I had that were Interesting were on ultra capacitors were used in electric cars, so that's what why I first came out to Silicon Valley in Like 93 or made to something that was to work at a company called political research on advanced ultra capacitors with the idea that this could be a solution to the energy storage problem in electric vehicles and then When I graduated from Penn the I was gonna be doing a PhD at Stanford in material science and and invent physics Try to figure out if there's a way to solve for an ultra high density solid-state capacitor that would have enough range to power an electric vehicle,

so I said impact it so that's that's a that's a 95 and then I Wasn't sure there's one of those things where you could work in it for a long time and discover that there's no Actually, no.

Good solution you you publish a paper and You get a PhD in a lab, but it would be academic in its value so In 95 I had a choice of either work on this energy storage system for electric vehicles or Try to play a role in building the internet But the internet stuff was happening right then and there Whereas the electric electric vehicle technology was going to progress slowly on its own?

Whether I was there or not so I thought well put the rat studies on hold and do something To help out the internet or do something useful on the Internet and that's when I talk to Kimbo You're working in Canada at the time and Said hey, why don't we try to do this this company in Silicon Valley?

pretty cool We bought that we were we were the first to see maps and door-to-door direction it had been built by a company Knapp tech they Never burn have never been on the Internet, and it was was so cool to be the first two humans to see it You can draw a map type in an address get directions Things you probably all dead about 50 times today each And we were the first to see that put it on the internet.

It was really cool She was the first maps and directions Yellow pages and white pages on the internet, yeah so And then we ended up helping bring a lot of publications online So it as investors and customers the New York Times Company knight-ridder or Hearst in a number of others?

and Yeah, but I always wanted to get back to electric vehicles because that that was a primary interest of mine from undergrad and grad days and And so After us up to still took one more Internet company because thought it's up to you had not achieved its its full potential We built this incredible technology, but it wasn't being used by the customers in the right way It's a bit like building you know F-22 fighter jets and then and then you selling to people and they roll them down the hill at each other Not the way to use it, okay, I Think that's that's where decide you really want to go to?

The end consumer if you've got a great technology you want to go all the way to the end consumer Don't tell it this to to some bonehead legacy company that doesn't understand how to use it So yeah So with with excel comb which became PayPal That's what that's what we try to do something significant with the with the internet And and it got sort of part of the way towards its its objective after a PayPal I Went went public and and they've got bought by eBay in 2002 that actually freed up me and a bunch of other people so you go and create companies and I start debating between Either solar electric car or space I thought space was like the least likely to have somebody,

but at least likely to attract Entrepreneurial times, I don't like like nobody is gonna.

Be crazy enough to do space so I better do space So I started off with with space first and And Then about a year and a half later in 2003.

I had lunch with JB Straubel and Hal Rosen and It was that it's like fish restaurant in El Segundo And Hal Rosen had been involved in space and electric vehicles and And jb was had just got just graduated from college was working with him and the conversation turned to electric vehicles Because Howard had done something called Rosen Motors, which was like an attempted evie startup, and I said well I've always been super interested in electric vehicles.

I was gonna do my PhD on an advanced and reduced energy storage I Was gonna do grad studies on on advanced energy storage techniques for electric vehicles and And so JB said well have you heard of this company called AC propulsion because they had created It the t zero electric sports car as a prototype I was like wow that's great like lithium-ion batteries had really achieved a level of energy density that For the first time could allow you to have significant range in an electric car And they had a sports car that had zero to 60 in under four seconds at 250 mile range And it's pretty cool,

and that was just made of it's just a kit car so it didn't have a roof or airbags or Thermal control system, and it was extremely unreliable it wasn't productized, but it was a proof of concept So I got the test drive from AC repulsion and I was like wow You guys should really commercialize this this would show people what electric cars can do and I tried for months to get AC propulsion to Go into production with the T 0 and Like they just were not interested in doing that Amazingly they wanted to do an electric Scion,

you know like that boxy car But the problem is like the electric saundra could cost $70,000 or You could build a sports car for $100,000.

Okay, but like nobody's gonna buy the electric silent But fuel might fight electric sports car So After hounding them for months. I finally said like look if you guys are not going to Commercialize the T zero, would you mind if if I did that? They said no no problem. Go ahead.

It's like great So I'm gonna do that with JV, and I said, but if you're if you're gonna do If you're gonna go and try to productize t zero there's some other teams you should talk to that also interested in doing that So that's where Whatever hard macht hopping and Ian Wright came in and No, I think that was probably the biggest mistake of my career quite frankly I The I I think whatever you think you can have your cake and eat it, too That's something you're probably wrong So I thought I can keep running SpaceX I'll dedicate 20% of my time to Tesla and that'll be fine but actually It didn't things really melted down Went through hell we're to recapitalize the company the Kimmel was there singing time So Silicon Valley accurate or not accurate that's

the show yeah The it starts to get very accurate around around Episode four So took a few episodes to kind of get get grounded the first few episodes struck me as Hollywood making fun of Hollywood's idea of Silicon Valley which is like not you know not on point But then by about but the fourth or fifth episode season one it really starts get good and then by season two it's amazing in fact reality But the truth is stranger than fiction all the crazy stuff you see in that show Silicon Valley the reality is way crazier than that Yeah,

you've seen the two right yeah, I'm just like wow What will have to be a story for another time for says?

We've been asked to wrap it up I got one last question for the audience. It is what is your favorite song from the movie three amigos? Well we don't need we don't need to do it if if you guys willing to sing along Okay So so Jonah actually is the dancer of the three?

Of Us have been we've been playing and singing and dancing this song since we were kids And so we're gonna do that on the stage and you guys can sing along well We'll do the first verse and then you guys can sing along on the second verse This is gonna be a real bad Yeah, I said terrible I'm mixing the dancing thing Come with me when moombas hits the sky You'll walk with me along the biome bye Okay all together now Bye little boat you Smile my little buttercup, what do you say a while?

Bin's me to the sky And you and I walk the wild by well, this is really winning You