谢谢，下午好。那么我们有很多内容要谈。埃隆做很多事情，嗯，此刻他的一艘宇宙飞船正停靠在这个空间站，呃，龙飞船。这是它第3次停靠，第2次商业停靠。它上周发射，你们许多人可能关注了这次发射，但中间出现了戏剧性事件，你知道，太阳能板以及诸如此类的情况。我们可以在你的 Twitter 动态上追踪。是啊，摇滚大戏。那是什么情况？你能不能告诉我们，发射期间发生状况、出现问题时，埃隆·马斯克待在控制室里是什么感受？呃，这个，我是说，这极其令人紧张。我是说，火箭发射的特点是，你全部的工作都被浓缩到了这几分钟里，尤其是

起飞前后的最初几秒，因为火箭可能发生的最糟糕的事情，碰触词语，是，呃，如果、如果、如果、如果发动机发生故障，或者在发射台正上方发生某种重大故障，整个东西可能会带着大约相当于100万磅 TNT 的威力坠落，并摧毁整个发射台。那会是，那就是我脑子里想的事情，如果你们好奇的话，那实际上就是我正在想的事情。[ __ ] 嗯，所以当它飞过避雷塔，并且已经离得足够远，不至于真的摧毁发射台时，那么，呃，那么这算是恐惧和焦虑下降了一个档次，你知道，呃，然后第一级分离之后又下降一个档次，这时第二级

点火，所以随着火箭上升，你的紧张强度算是在下降，呃。问题是，我们最初的3个火箭发射器都失败了，好吧，然后第1个在非常靠近发射台的地方失败了，实际上几乎摧毁了发射台。我那天 SP，捡着散落在礁石上的火箭碎片，呃，这很糟糕。所以我觉得，由于连续3个失败，恐惧反应被相当强烈地刻进去了，你知道，而且当我看到火箭发射时，那些火箭失败的画面会在我的脑海里闪过。所以这就是当时的情况。然后这一次，嗯，你们挺过了级间分离，但接着太阳能电池出了问题，嗯，跟我讲讲你们大致是怎么

发现问题、诊断问题的，团队会做什么？我是说，你们最后解决了，但，嗯，它是怎么运作的？是的，所以，呃，太阳能板实际上没问题，而且火箭发射进行得非常顺利，所以那不是问题。事情变得有点阿尔赖特是在航天器分离之后，我们尝试初始化4个瑟勒舱。所以那里有4个瑟勒舱，合计共有18台发动机，而且，呃，这个系统在设计上有大量冗余，因此它可以承受各种故障，仍然完成任务。它从根本上就是这样制造的，嗯，事实上，即使4个推进器舱中只有2个工作，它也能运行，你知道，它们仍然可以执行任务。嗯，所以有3个不工作。哇。嗯，而且，那

是一个巨大的谜团，比如为什么有3个不工作，因为这些东西是交叉连接的，所以你大概会认为，或许会有1个不工作，或者交叉连接的一对不工作，但不会是3个。这真的、真的很奇怪。所以，嗯，所以、所以我们的航天器当时只是在太空中进行某种自由漂移，就像我们只是在翻滚，嗯，而且这也让通信变得困难，因为天线就像指向了，你知道，你能想象到的每一个方向。所以我们仅有的、我们仅有的是一个非常微弱的2千比特，呃，偶尔出现的2个2千比特链路，它会时有时无，嗯，而那是一个从 NASA TEDRA 卫星系统发射出来的全向信号，嗯，所以为了真正改善这个，我们首先必须提高带宽

所以我们实际上询问了空军，能不能使用他们的一些远程凯美瑞扫描器，他们能不能让我们接入。我们有一套，嗯，我们称为 mega proxy 的通信系统，所以我们必须，呃，重新编写 mega proxy 的代码，让它通过空军的远程碟形天线，以足够的强度轰击航天器，从而能够上传新代码，呃，尝试修复问题。而且，呃，所以、所以我们编写了一些新的、一些新软件，来，嗯，实质上对3个拒绝增压的氧化剂箱中的2个进行压力猛冲，嗯，而且结果是，我想我们已经弄清楚了问题，也就是3个箱体里的一个止回阀曾被做了一处细微改动，而另一个，并且我们后来能够复现那个问题

后来在地面上，嗯，而且我们能够、能够、能够基本上让系统在上游积聚压力，然后释放那股压力并猛撞阀门，嗯，所以我们是在试图给它做一种相当于航天器版本的见鬼动作，基本上，嗯。然后我们让其中1个舱有了看起来正在取得进展的反应，而且，呃，在至少有2个舱启动之前，我们不想放空太阳能板，这样我们就能、我们就能从某种漂移状态转为主动保持状态，呃，但随后处于这些保护罩内的太阳能板的温度在下降，呃，如果它正对着黑暗的太空，温度可能降到几乎绝对零度，呃，所以，呃，所以温度一直降、一直降、一直降，我们就想，好吧，[ __ ] 我们

最好释放太阳能板，嗯，否则它们真的可能原地冻住，嗯，于是我们运行了一次模拟，看看会、会发生什么，嗯，而这实际上稍微有点益处，有点像滑冰者，你知道，当滑冰者，呃，把她的手臂伸出去时，嗯，速度会减慢；收回来，速度就会加快。所以实际上，当手臂伸出去时，当太阳能板阵列伸出去时，它减慢了旋转速率，实际上稍微帮助了我们，嗯，维持与航天器的通信。而且，嗯，然后我们能够，呃，利用那个珍贵的灯东西，让、让、让1个部分启动，接着、接着、接着是第3个，然后是第4个，然后我们让全部4个都工作起来，并且我们能够继续执行任务，和空间站一起躲伏，事实上

龙飞船目前现在正和空间站一起躲伏，而且，嗯，如果、如果一切顺利，我们将在大约1周或2周后返回，呃，地球。听起来很可怕。是啊。哇，那真是、那真是硬核。我不想再经历一次了。好，嗯，你这次来到、来到、来到奥斯汀，不只是为了西南偏南大会，也是为了会见得州立法机构，谈论在得州建造一个可能的发射基地。再跟我们多说说这件事。嗯，是的，所以目前我们有，呃，2个主要发射地点，一个是佛罗里达州的卡纳维拉尔角，另一个是，呃，加利福尼亚州的文伯格空军基地，嗯，所以卡普纳拉尔适合某种向东发射，呃，范德伯格适合向南发射，而我们认为我们需要第3个发射场，它算是一个商业发射场，你知道

它不是，嗯，因为凯普尼尔和弗尔有空军基地，嗯，这很酷，而且显然空军太空发射基地有重要需求，就像空军机场也有需求一样，嗯，但商业机场也同样有需求。就像在正常情况下，你不会期待商业客机降落在空军基地，嗯，拥有一个商业航天港是合理的，嗯，而且我们需要能够向东发射，嗯，我们希望靠近赤道，嗯，所以这基本意味着，呃，潜在的州是从弗吉尼亚州到得州，嗯，越往南走，嗯，还有夏威夷和波多黎各，因为我们还需要留在、留在美国领土上，因为，嗯，像我们正在做的这种火箭技术被视为一种先进的

武器技术，所以如果你愿意这么说的话，要把它出口到其他国家非常困难，嗯，而且，呃，不管怎样，所以这些是我们目前的选择。得州可以说是领先的候选地，嗯，但是，呃，我们需要通过某些支持太空发射的立法，嗯，我不认为这有什么特别的争议，嗯，但举例来说，我们需要做的一件事是，我们进行发射时需要能够关闭海滩，而得州有《开放海滩法》。就像，好吧，你知道，如果有人就在火箭旁边，你知道，在海滩上，我们、我们、我们就不能发射，嗯，所以就像我说的，我不认为这是一件特别，呃，有争议的事情。这很直截了当，嗯，然后、然后我们、我们、我们还需要一点点

保护，以应对1/10,000的那种会抱怨这件事的人。比如曾有这么个家伙，因为我们设在得州中部韦科附近的火箭研发场地而对我们提起诉讼。他甚至都不在同一个县，嗯，他在邻县，而且他还觉得像是 ca 正在监听他的脑电波，嗯，所以我们需要给我们提供一点点保护，免受这类人的影响，这样我们就不至于花大量时间出庭，嗯，所以这基本上就是我们所要求的。没什么、没什么大事，嗯，而且，呃，我、我认为这件事很可能会继续推进。所以我认为，你知道，如果、如果事情按预期发展，就会有这个，很可能我们会在得州拥有一个 l 场地，我觉得那会非常酷。大约什么时候？嗯，所以这取决于

环境审批进展如何之类的，但我想，嗯，我想如果事情进展顺利，我是说，并不是所有事情都掌握在我们手中，所以，不过假设事情按预期发展，你知道，今年会作出决定，然后我们明年开始建设，接着首次发射可能会在呃2到3年后从那里进行。太棒了，是的，嗯，那么，嗯，Falcon 9，也就是发射了龙飞船的那枚火箭，是一种传统火箭，也就是说它的一些部分是一次性的，但你本质上，你最终专注的是可重复使用火箭，而“蚱蜢”就是它的名称。你能稍微谈谈为什么要可重复使用、可重复使用有什么不同吗？我想你可能也有一些东西可以展示。是的，当然，所以可重复使用性

极其重要，嗯，如果你认为人类走出地球、嗯，成为多重物种之类的事情很重要，嗯，而且我是说，这超级重要。我原以为，我认为这也是非常显而易见的常识，比如你可以想象观看《星际迷航》，然后他们每次每次旅行后都换一艘新星舰，那会相当愚蠢，嗯，而且而且而且我们习惯的每一种呃机动交通工具，比如汽车、飞机、火车、机动车、马、自行车，它们全都可以重复使用，嗯，但但火箭不行。而且如果如果我们无法让火箭可重复使用，成本就高得令人望而却步，那那呃，比如一枚Falcon 9上的燃料和氧气成本是0。

火箭成本的3%，哇，所以它基本上是一个非常小的数字，它，它非常类似于，呃，一架飞机，所以给一架飞机加满燃料要花多少钱，嗯，以及购买一架飞机的成本是多少，它们是非常不同的事情，所以如果，如果人类终有一天要扩展到地球之外，并在另一颗行星上建立一个自给自足的基地，我们解决这个问题就至关重要，无论是SpaceX还是其他人，都必须有人解决这个问题，嗯，而我们可以将太空飞行的成本降低到原来的1/100，嗯，所以，所以这就是SpaceX一直努力在做的事，嗯，实际上这从公司成立之初就是目标，所以到目前为止，在这方面我并不是很成功，呃，在，在这方面，所以但我，我认为我们算是掌握了

它，我认为，我认为我们有一个，我们有一个设计，在模拟中，在，在CAD等等之中，它，它，它是闭合的，就像它应该能工作，如果我们能把那个东西造出来，它应该能工作，而且，呃，事实上，也许值得直接播放可重复使用性视频，好让人们知道我在说什么，我不知道那会在哪里播放，但在我们身后，在我们前面，观众能看到吗，哦，出现了，对，好，所以你在这里看到的是，第一级在级间分离后，第一级掉头，加速返回发射台，嗯，然后用起落架进行动力着陆，这有点像火箭应该采用的着陆方式，那是，那是上面级，这显然是，这是视频的快速版本，然后你看到Dragon

第2版，所以Dragon第2版将依靠推进器和起落架着陆，精确度与直升机一样，所以它能在地球上的任何地方着陆，以，以直升机的精确度，在我们转向，转向汽车之前，再问最后一个关于太空的问题，嗯，你以前谈到过你是如何决定涉足这件事的，你是，你创办了，你共同创办了PayPal，嗯，你其实并不，我是说，你有物理学学位，你对，对，你知道，基础力学有所了解，但你没有任何太空经验，对吧，你好像是在一列火车上决定前往火星，并认定自己能够在竞争中胜过NASA，或者你能比世界上最大的之一，嗯，世界上最大的航天机构更快、更便宜、更好地抵达火星、进入太空，你是怎么

获得那种信心的，呃，所以，嗯，首先我想我应该说，也许先对，嗯，创办SpaceX之前发生的事做一点铺垫，嗯，事实上，我算是进入太空领域的方式是，嗯，去做，我，我真的非常失望，我们没有把任何人送到M，我们没有取得超越阿波罗的进展，嗯，而我一直在等我们什么时候会这样做，但这就是没有发生，呃，年复一年，而，而我的一个朋友问我在PayPal之后想做什么，我说，嗯，你知道，我一直对太空很好奇，但我没有想过自己能在太空领域做任何事情，而，而我去NASA网站只是想看看我们什么时候去火星，但我没能找到，找到答案，呃，我想也许我，它就在那里，但被藏得很好之类的

但，嗯，所以，所以后来我想，或许这是一个，意愿的问题，是否有足够的意愿去做这件事，而，而我想出的第1个点子实际上是执行一项慈善任务，把一座小温室送到火星表面，里面装着置于脱水凝胶中的种子，凝胶会在着陆时吸水，然后你就会拥有这座很酷的温室，红色背景上长着这些绿色植物，那会成为关键画面，嗯，而，而且，而且之后，呃，你知道，人们喜欢先例和最高级，所以它会是第1个PL，另一颗行星上的第1个生命，生命有史以来到达的最远处，而且，呃，而且那会让人们兴奋起来，你也会了解到很多关于在火星温室中维持地球PLS地球植物需要什么的知识，嗯，这件事的全部目的就是让人们

对把人送往火星感到兴奋，并增加NASA的预算，所以那就是我的全部目标，我基本上打算把它烧掉，对，它，它与和NASA竞争毫无关系，事实上我的目标是增加他们的预算，嗯，而且，呃，而且，而且我应该说，如今NASA是我们最大的客户，嗯，我是说，嗯，我们有将近50次发射，而，呃，其中约1/4是巧妙处理那个，但34，34次商业发射，但1/4是NASA，嗯，而且NASA一直给予难以置信的支持和帮助，没有，没有NASA的帮助，我们不会走到今天这一步，所以这不是，这真的与和NASA竞争毫无关系，真正的问题只是，为了在太空领域拥有一个令人兴奋、鼓舞人心的未来，我们需要做什么，那，那，那才是我认为真正重要的事

但归根结底，你最终并没有筹集到那笔资，那笔钱来付给NASA执行这项任务，你最终做的是建立自己的公司，而且，而且理想情况下要比政府做得更便宜，很好，对，嗯，我，所以我能够弄清楚如何让航天器、温室和通信系统的成本远低于这种东西通常所需的成本，我卡在了火箭上，嗯，而我去了，去了俄罗斯3次，试图购买他们最大的几枚洲际弹道导弹，嗯，这大约是在，这是在2001年、2001年末和2002年，嗯，那绝对是一次有趣的经历，呃，而且，呃，我，我有点觉得我连核武器也能买到，但不想谈那个，嗯，然后当我，当我从第3次俄罗斯之行回来时

嗯，那，那时我想，好吧，看，呃，即使我们做，即使我们从俄罗斯购买这些，这些洲际弹道导弹，嗯，我，我，我，我，我认为它，我认为我最初的假设是错的，嗯，所以我真正想到的是，我们已经失去了探索的世界，我们已经失去了推动，推动边界的世界，而，而且，而且事后看来，那实际上是一个非常愚蠢的错误，呃，因为美国是一个探索者的国家，美国是人类探索精神的提炼，事后看来，竟然会作出这样的假设，是荒谬的，嗯，但人们需要相信这是可能的，而且它不会，它不会让他们破产，他们不会，他们不必放弃医疗保健之类的重要事物，呃，你知道

这将是一笔不会实质性影响他们生活水平的费用，而且我认为美国绝对会对把人送上火星感到超级、超级兴奋，呃，而且我认为很多人真的很希望这件事无论如何都能发生。所以那就是，嗯，那就是我得出的结论，而且，而且我想，好吧，如果，如果我们不能改变火箭、运输系统的成本，那么一切都无所谓了。嗯，就像我说的，这不是意愿的问题，而是方式的问题。嗯，所以我回来后就是在那时创办了SpaceX，但当我创办SpaceX时，并不是抱着这样的想法：哦，我们只要，你知道，用很棒的火箭接管世界。我不知道

那个pr gu在做什么，我当时一无所知。嗯，我，我认为最可能的结果是我们会失败，而，而且前3枚火箭确实失败了，所以——而你把所有的钱都投进去了，投在Tesla、SpaceX和Solar City之间，全都投进去了？是的。顺便说一句，一开始计划并不是这样。而彼得·泰尔斯说，我们不再往大处想了。你一定和他就此进行过一些有趣的对话。呃，好吧，你知道，彼得其实一直是个大力支持者，所以他，呃，嗯，在2008年一个非常关键的时刻投资了SpaceX，呃，当时我们还没有进入轨道，也就是在我们第3次失败之后、第一次成功之前。所以，你知道，这得给彼得很大的功劳，还有，嗯，卢克·诺克以及Founders spond的其他人。基本上，我的、我的、我的PayPal老朋友们，我的PayPal老朋友们救了我一把。

你知道，那真的、真的很好。那么，我们来谈谈汽车。嗯，呃，在场的许多人可能还记得《纽约时报》那篇臭名昭著的Model S评测。是的，正是Model S的那篇。嗯，今年早些时候。对。还有你对那篇评测的反应、《纽约时报》对你反应的反应，以及，以及，以及这对你的股价、订单和所有这些事情的影响。在不重新复述那篇评测或事实的情况下，我希望你只对整个经历做一次事后剖析。等等，我要怎么在没有任何事实或任何东西的情况下做事后——事后剖析？事后剖析，事后剖析你对那篇评测的反应。好吧。以及你知道，让你躺到沙发上谈谈；看到整件事的发展过程后，今天你会采取什么不同的做法？嗯，好吧，我认为，嗯，我认为有一件事我没有做，也许

现在仍然应该做，那就是，就是，就是发布对那篇反驳的反驳，因为我把它压下来了，等着公众编辑。我把那些信息发给了公众编辑，等她做她那一套事情；她在某种程度上站到了Tesla这边，认同那篇文章存在错误这一事实，但，但是不同意关于动机的判断。关于道德，是的。嗯，而且，嗯，因为你，你既质疑了事实，也质疑了道德。我的确如此，是的。嗯，而且，而且，而且我认为这算是，我，我认为这算是，我会称之为低程度的，呃，道德违规，不是，不是什么严重的违规。我不认为他觉得自己做了什么特别糟糕的事，但我，我会称之为低程度、低程度的违规，而且不是，不是，不是杰森·布莱尔那种，你知道，疯狂捏造的类型，但我，我会称它为低

程度的；这并非出于善意，如果说那，那，那是，那是，那是一个重要、重要的点。嗯，而且，呃，我，我也许本该发布那篇反驳，把这一点说清楚，但我没有那么做。这是我后悔的地方。所以你唯一会改变的，就是最后那一点，你写了但尚未发布的那篇反驳，你会把它——也许我应该——你会把它发出来。是的。所以你仍会在你的——中以同样的方式使用同样的措辞？我不认为那些措辞不准确，我真的不认为。你经常，你经常说，你的一项管理技巧、你成功的秘诀之一，就是你会听取负、负面反馈。是的。《时报》的forev youw难道不属于负面反馈这一类吗？我对负面反馈没有意见。

对于负面反馈，我有意见；我对批评性评测也没有意见。如果我对批评性评测有意见，我就会把全部时间都花在与批评性评测交战上。嗯，已经有数百篇负面文章，数百篇，但我只公开回应过几次。我，我对批评性评测没有意见，我对虚假评测有意见。好吧。嗯，你不得不，嗯，嗯，你知道，基本上开发到接近完美的技术之一，或者至少，或者至少是投入最多精力研究的技术之一，就是锂电池。嗯，对于电动汽车，或者靠锂电池运行，安全一直是个问题，事故等等。嗯，最近波音的锂电池发生了，呃，起火，而，而且，而且梦想客机现在已经停飞，因为

那个，嗯，你主动提出帮助波音的高管，我想，是进行诊断和重新设计，对，你能稍微谈谈他们做错了什么、你会采取哪些不同的做法，以及你认为，你知道，波音和其他航空公司的电池未来会怎样吗？当然，嗯，首先，就波音这方面而言，我是说，显然，尽管 SpaceX 和 Bo 在太空领域竞争，但我们在商业客机领域没有竞争，嗯，我对波音发表的一些评论不知怎么被解读成了对波音的攻击，但事实上那并不是对波音的攻击，嗯，我实际提出，呃，我是说，我应该说，我提出提供帮助的主要原因是，我有一位朋友理查德·布兰森，他的 aine

正因为这起锂离子电池起火事件而蒙受损失，他提到，你知道，他正在损失数亿美元，或者说是他的 Aline，嗯，都是因为这个、这个问题。我说，嗯，我想我们或许能帮上忙，然后他，所以他说，哦，太好了，那我来帮你联系 787 的总工程师。我说，酷，我们很乐意帮忙。所以，呃，你知道，我们提供了一些、一些建议，希望那些会有所帮助，嗯，而且我说，如果你们愿意，我们也很乐意实际完成解决方案，嗯，而且，呃，他们还没有接受我们的这个提议，嗯，但无论是以顾问身份提供帮助，还是完成解决方案，我们都很乐意，只要能让 787 更快恢复飞行，嗯，我们只是想做到，你知道，有成效并且有所帮助。所以，嗯，我是说，我

认为，在 VY 的案例中，呃，波音内部并没有很多电池专业知识，所以他们把电池外包了，然后又出现了一大堆层层嵌套式的外包，他们把电池系统外包出去，然后、然后它又被外包给另一家公司，再外包给另一家公司，然后再外包给一大堆其他公司，而、而你得深入4层才真正接触到，嗯，任何硬件，嗯，所以我认为，这导致了一种沟通失灵，嗯，我是说，从架构角度看，根本问题是，是，我、我、我认为，嗯，是电芯太大，电池电芯太大，而且电池电芯之间的间隙不够大，嗯，而问题

采用大电芯的一个问题是，在最坏情况下，热传导路径非常长，所以你得问，好吧，如果电池里有一个热点，它能把热量散出去吗，是的，而如果它位于电芯深处，就不行，它做不到，嗯，而且对电芯进行温度调节也很困难，电池包的寿命将取决于温度，不是平均温度，而是任何电芯中任何一点的最差温度，所以你确实希望让温度均匀下来，这就是为什么 Tesla 喜欢使用大量小电芯，是的，嗯，然后主动冷却每一个电芯，以保持温度均匀，嗯，并确保如果、如果、如果，嗯，形成了火锅，它到冷却系统的路径非常短，而且它

而且它可以，你知道，处理好它，你还希望确保它，它是——我讲得相当技术化了，抱歉，嗯——它是，嗯，被动防传播的，所以，所以即使你的主动冷却系统失效了，嗯，而且一个电芯出现热跑道，那个热跑道事件可能级联到相邻电芯，所以，而且你会出现热的多米诺效应，对吧，我是说，这并不是，这不是超级复杂，嗯，所以，所以，嗯，你知道，如果、如果、如果你有大电芯，你就需要大间隙，而理想情况下你并不想要大电芯，但如果你用了，就需要大间隙，小电芯，小间隙，是的，我是说，所以我是说，这个，这个真的很重要，因为，因为，嗯，新一代飞机的关键就在于它们很轻，它们使用复合材料

它们使用电子系统而不是机械系统，因此电力驱动着整个东西，所以基本上我的理解是，你在空中需要锂电池，采用其他方式根本行不通，而你的观点是，这可以做到——哦，完全可以做到，是的，锂在这里受到了一点坏名声，嗯，锂显然是正确的方向，我是说，人们的手机和笔记本电脑里都有锂离子电池，我是说，我不认为有人会因为自己有一块锂离子电池，你知道，就放在他们身体的一个感知、一个区域旁边，大概是，而感到恐慌，你知道。明白了，那么，在我们，嗯，好吧，在我回到你那似乎很疯狂的生活之前，最后再问一组关于能源的问题，嗯——确实很疯狂——嗯，你

还是 Solar City 的董事长，我相信它是美国最大的太阳能安装商，嗯，你知道，所以太空、交通、能源，正好挑了几个大的。嗯，现在，你知道，太阳能在过去几年里因为 Cylinder 的崩溃等等而名声不好，但你知道，我的感觉是，人们并没有区分太阳能电池的制造和太阳能电池的使用，而中国的竞争以及供应端市场的过度供给，正是让 Cylinder 陷入困境的原因，他们无法与休耕中的价格竞争，但你是太阳能电池的消费者，对吧？那么你怎么看，你知道，中国、中国的竞争，以及市场上太阳能、太阳能电池某种程度上的过度供给？这有什么好的看法，嗯，我是说

我认为中国在太阳能板领域所做的事非常棒，因为他们正在为全世界降低太阳能发电的成本，而且他们在中国沙漠里建造了这些巨型超级工厂，嗯，并获得了中国政府的大量资助，所以这就像小小的中国政府送出的一份巨额捐赠，就像，谢谢，太棒了，你知道，嗯，而且，呃，你知道，人们多少会抱怨 Sindra，但我的意思是，显然任何参与过风险投资界的人都知道，你大约1,000……会有一些公司倒闭，我们之所以知道 Slender，只是因为它变成了一个政治皮球，对吧，嗯，而且，呃，我是说，还有其他太阳能板制造商依然经营得相当不错，嗯，但、但、但

当你参与竞争时确实很艰难，嗯，我是说，我认为一个很好的经验法则是，不要，就是不要拿一种大宗商品跟中国竞争，是的，嗯，你知道，在那种情况下，你真的是在要求、要求旅行，嗯，而且，而且制造效率为15%的，或者说标准效率的太阳能板真的超级容易，超级容易，到现在这时候，这甚至比造该死的石膏板还容易，嗯，所以就像，有人认为我们应该在石膏板制造上跟中国竞争吗？好吧，可能没有，所以，嗯，所以，所以事情就是这样，所以，而且太阳能发电困难的部分并不是面板，实际上是整个系统，基本上就是设计出某种能安装到特定屋顶上的东西，CU 你面对的是所有这些各不相同的屋顶，嗯，然后你

必须，你必须安装系统，你必须给它布线，你得把逆变器接好、连接到电网，你得办完所有许可，我是说，这是一堆棘手、不光鲜、愚蠢的问题，但如果没有人优化它们，它们依然会花费巨额资金，嗯，而且，其中很多确实不是什么，它们不是有趣的问题，也不是，你知道，优化起来令人兴奋的问题，但、但、但它们才是真正影响太阳能发电成本的问题，所以这其实更像是，你知道，像一个，像一个屋顶承包商，而不是一家半导体公司，我是说，你所做的是给一栋建筑铺上第二层屋顶，是的，好吧，所以，而且你必须大规模地这样做，然后你还得管理所有这些

系统，因为仍然存在一些，我是说，即使售后服务量很小，当你拥有数十万个系统时，需要管理的事情仍然很多，嗯，所以 Solar City 真正的形态是一家巨型分布式公用事业公司，嗯，它与住宅和企业合作，并与那种大型垄断公用事业公司竞争，我是说，我认为这简直就是把电力交给人民，好吧，简直就是这样，所以我认为这真的很棒，因为公用事业公司以前从未遇到过任何竞争，是的，嗯，而现在它们就像是，它们必须真正考虑电力成本，并想出更好的办法来做这件事，诸如此类，我认为这真的很棒，嗯，而这里的功劳其实应该归于 Lyen 和 Peter

RI 联合创始人，呃，我是说，我时不时会提出几个想法，但大多数时候只是出席董事会会议，听取好消息，那些家伙做得实在太棒了。那么你是 SpaceX 的首席执行官兼首席技术官，所以你不仅经营公司，实际上还担任首席技术官；你是 Tesla 的首席执行官兼首席产品设计师，所以不仅经营公司，还设计汽车，是的；你还是 Solar City 的董事长，对吧？你的生活是什么样的？它、它、它非常忙碌，呃，而且，呃，老实说，我其实想把强度稍微降一点，嗯，因为有所有这些，我是说，这些，这些事情在过去几年里真的、真的很棒，嗯，但也有好几年糟糕透顶，嗯，而且

呃，我只是希望，只是希望它不要这么极端，嗯，呃，而且像去年是取得巨大成就的一年，但老实说，我并没有得到多少乐趣，糟透了，我没得到多少乐趣，嗯，我最新的决心是今年多享受一点乐趣，所以，嘿，我来西南偏南了，你知道。你还有5个孩子——他们很棒，顺便说一句，孩子们很棒，你们都应该要孩子，孩子很棒——呃，你多常见到他们？其实我见他们见得不够多，但、但我，呃，呃，我发现，我能够和他们待在一起，同时，呃，仍然处理电子邮件，因为除了我们直接交谈的时候，我并不需要持续不断的互动，所以，嗯，我发现我可以和他们待在一起，同时仍然，你知道，工作，嗯，但等等，等等，你是说

你和孩子待在一起时还能处理电子邮件？是的，绝对可以，当然，嗯。哇，我是说，不是一直如此，但很多时候可以，嗯，这、这就是为什么拥有一部手机很“tny”，你可以算是，你可以在间隙时间里处理电子邮件，嗯，如果没有手机，我就无法完成自己的工作。哇，那真是，呃，令人印象深刻，嗯，我们［音乐］是——我有5个孩子，我和孩子待在一起时没法处理电子邮件，这对孩子不好，对电子邮件也真的不好。好吧，我，我确实必须让一位保姆待在那里，否则他们会互相杀掉，所以，嗯，是的，嗯。现在我们要开始回答观众提问，嗯，只是提醒一下，嗯，如果你在推文中提出问题并加上标签 askm musk，后面有一个团队会筛选，嗯，那些我们还没有

已经讲过了，而且似乎很有趣，我把它们放到前面，也许你们也能看到，那么第 1 个问题来自 David Soless，嗯，他问，在研究、分析创业机会时，你如何判断或证实，大概是证实这个想法，当然，嗯，好吧，嗯，我不确定自己是不是这方面最好的向导，因为我选择的事情并不是，嗯，机……我并没有试图在风险调整后回报的基础上进行优化，所以，呃，比如，我不会说自己进入摇滚行业、汽车行业，呃，或者太阳能行业时，认为这是一个，这是一个绝佳机会，我只是觉得，要想带来改变，这些，呃，行业里需要有人做些什么，这就是我这么做的原因，所以，嗯，但，但总的来说

我确实认为，值得思考一下，比如你正在做的事情是否会带来颠覆性变化；如果只是渐进式的，它就不太可能成为某种重大的事物，它，它，它必须比以前发生过的事情好得多，这很好地引出了我们的下一个问题，嗯，这个问题来自，呃，Craig Lre，嗯，太空、汽车、金融、能源，你颠覆了多个主要行业，如果你能够完全自由地支配教育，你会怎么做，嗯，好吧，我，我认为我们目前开展教育的方式是，是，是错误的，而且，而且我们，当你看到 KH 学院之类的东西时，我认为那大概是在朝正确的方向，方向前进，我的意思是，总体而言，你会希望教育尽可能像电子游戏一样

可能就像一款好的电子游戏一样，你不需要叫你的孩子玩电子游戏，他们会一整天自动自发地玩电子游戏。所以，如果你能让它具有互动性、引人投入，呃，那么，那么你就能让教育更具吸引力，而且，而且做起来容易得多。嗯，所以我认为教育就应该是那样，而且不应该像现在这样划分年级，让人们步调一致地前进。嗯，所以每个人都会经历，你知道，通常你会从 5 年级升到 6 年级，再升到 7 年级，依次学习英语、数学，呃，科学等等，就像一条流水线。呃，但，但是人不是流水线上的物品，那是个荒谬的观念。嗯，人们学习不同事物的速度不同，感兴趣的事物也不同。所以你真正想要的是

嗯，把整个年级体系与各个科目脱钩，让人们在每个科目中按照自己所能达到或感兴趣的最快速度进步。嗯，这似乎是件非常显而易见的事。嗯，我是说，我觉得如今大多数教学都很像“福特维尔”，在这种情况下，结果就是没那么，没那么有吸引力。就像有人站在那里给你讲课，而他们已经连续几年讲同一堂课了，他们自己未必那么投入，或者说未必那么投入地去做。嗯，把这与，比如说，《蝙蝠侠：黑暗骑士》相比，好吧，嗯，那里有世界上最好的特效，有世界上最好的导演、编剧，经过多次剪辑。嗯，惊人的，你知道，剪辑，而且，嗯，而且，而且，而且，而且，而且，那非常精彩，但

但，比如说，想象一下，如果换成当地小镇上一位，嗯，有抱负的演员来演，呃，那个作品的独角戏版本。对，那就不会有吸引力。对。你同意彼得·特关于同学的看法吗？嗯，因为你随时都可以买教科书，直接阅读，没人阻止你这么做，或者上网，或者上网。嗯，所以，呃，现在，对许多公司来说，他们，他们，他们确实希望看到学位已经完成，因为他们寻找的是，嗯，一个会坚持不懈、把事情做到底的人，而，而那其实才是对他们重要的东西。所以，这确实取决于某人的目标是什么。如果目标是创办一家公司，我会说，没有必要完成，呃，大学学业。嗯，就我而言，我必须完成，否则我会被赶

出这个国家。对。嗯，所以，呃，那一点很重要。不过，你后来也获得了硕士学位，对吧？嗯，我，我来到 silic valy，是为了在斯坦福大学攻读应用物理和材料科学博士学位，从事，嗯，用于电动汽车的超级电容器研究，那就是我原本打算做的事。然后我开始把它搁置起来，去创办一家公司。不过因为我已经有本科……本科学位了，所以之后可以获得 H1B 签证之类的东西。所以 H1B 签证要求，呃，一个学位。嗯，但除此之外，我，我本来会，如果，什么，那不是这种情况，我可能会更早结束教育。你不是去沃顿读了……？对，对，他们确实是物理和，而且商业双本科，在沃顿。明白。对，但那是本科，不，不是硕士。明白。嗯，另一个

来自观众的问题，来自丹·格里菲思。嗯，填空：如果空白没有在你有生之年发生，你会感到失望。嗯，嗯，好吧，可能，最……我刚才指出的事情就是，如果，如果人类没有在我有生之年登陆火星，我会非常失望。那会是，你知道，那，那可能会是我最大的失望。嗯，而且，呃，对，我觉得，我觉得这是我最担心的事情，因为，因为我们正处于这个……显然，那正是 SpaceX 在做的事。嗯，所以我不是想在这里为自己谋利，但只是，我有点担心，我们已经到了这个……我，我不知道我们的技术水平会继续提升还是会衰退，而在 45 亿年来的第一次，技术水平已经到了我们能够

把生命延伸到另一颗行星、让生命成为多行星生命的程度，而且，嗯，我，我认为人们太容易想当然地以为它会一直保持在那个水平之上。嗯，如果它没有保持住，而是跌到那个水平以下，它还会恢复吗？谁，谁知道。嗯，呃，你知道，太阳正在逐渐膨胀，而在大约，你知道，大致 5 亿年后，也许 10 亿年后，外部，嗯，呃，海洋会沸腾，而且，而且地球上将不再有，不再有真正意义上的生命。我的意思是，也许会有某种，你知道，“查特雷斯”，或者，或者超高温细菌之类的东西，但没有任何能够制造宇宙飞船的生命。嗯，而且，而且这就像，如果你想想，也许时间范围是 5 亿年，那只是地球的生命……寿命增加了 10%。所以，如果，如果，如果，嗯，人类多花了 10% 的时间

才走到这里，那就根本不可能走到这里。对。嗯，到目前为止，我们还没有看到任何来自其他世界的生命迹象，我们，我们什么都没有探测到。我希望，你知道，希望我们能探测到，也希望那不是一艘正朝我们驶来的战舰。嗯，呃，但，呃，我，我只是认为，这才是真正令我担忧的事情。我们，我们，我们，我们需要把这件事做成。嗯，而且，而且那是我们能够为确保人类继续存在而做的最好的事。嗯，所以我才会说，那是最重要的事。你个人，你，你个人想踏上火星吗？我，我个人确实想踏上火星。嗯，但老实说，即使没有……即使我知道自己没有任何机会去火星，我仍然会做这件事。那是因为我认为，就像我说的，我认为

重要的是我们正走在通往那里的道路上。嗯，所以，嗯，我，我希望在某个时候去。如果我确信没有我 SpaceX 也会安然无恙，嗯，而且那条道路会继续下去，我就会去。嗯，因为你可能听我，呃，有些人可能听过我以前讲过的笑话，就是，你知道，我，我，我，我会，我想，我希望死在火星上，只是别死于撞击，你知道。所以，另一个问题，呃，来自，嗯，观众。所以我们刚刚，我们刚刚弄丢，弄丢了那个问题。有一个……我不记得，嗯，是谁问了这个问题，但问题是，嗯，呃，哪一个，嗯，哪，哪一个，你认为会对世界产生更大的影响，SpaceX 还是 Tesla？嗯，我，我认为，如果我们回顾，或者如果历史学家，如果我在许多年后回顾 Tesla 的影响

我认为，呃，那会是，Tesla 有望把可持续交通的到来提前大约 10 年，也许，也许 20 年。嗯，但我确实认为电动汽车是不可避免的。事实上，我认为所有交通方式都会实现完全电动化，具有讽刺意味的例外是火箭。嗯，所以那是，呃，那是我的看法。然后对于，对于 Solar City，在能源生产方面，或许也会有类似的影响，可持续能源生产。然后，呃，对于 SpaceX，希望 SpaceX 开发、开发出把大量人员和“卡罗”运送到火星所必需的技术。嗯，而且，嗯，我是说，我认为那是，嗯，你知道，更大的影响。但更确切地说，Solar City 和 Tesla 所做的是解决我认为最紧迫的地球问题，也就是

能源的可持续生产与消耗，或者帮助解决这个问题。我的意思是，有很多人正在解决它。嗯，然后 SpaceX 所做的是帮助解决最大的非地球问题，也就是把生命延伸到地球之外。所以，那，那就是我的看法。我们有 2 个相关问题，一个已经不在屏幕上了，不过，呃，另一个还在。嗯，第一个是，你得到过的最佳建议是什么？第二个问题，也许你可以在回答中把它们合在一起，就是你提到与你的朋友彼得·蒂尔和理查德·布兰森共事，谁影响和激励着你？当然。嗯，这个，我，我受到很多历史人物的启发，比如我最喜欢的人之一是本·富兰克林。你知道，我只是觉得他是，你知道，他是个非常……的人。我的意思是，他是一位科学家

而且他也，我是说，从事过，嗯，显然是出版业和政治领域的工作，但他有点像是，他只是思考，哪些是，哪些是需要解决的问题，然后，然后致力于解决这些问题。嗯，而且总体而言，他似乎就是个好人。嗯，所以我真的很喜欢他，而且，嗯，而且我还喜欢科学和，嗯，文学领域的历史人物，而且，我是说，呃，丘吉尔的“F”……嗯，而且，呃，而且显然还有 Tesla，我们用尼古拉·Tesla 的名字命名了 Tesla，比马斯克汽车好，你知道。嗯，而且实际上，我从未用自己的名字命名任何产品或公司。呃，但，但这或许能让人感受到，比如，我认为 Tesla 是一个值得获得大量认可的人。嗯，而且，呃，抱歉，问题是什么来着？嗯，他们都已经去世了，有没有人物……嗯，对，我是说，我认为

嗯，我有一位朋友，呃，比如拉里·佩奇，我认为拉里所做的事，呃，还有谢尔盖在 Google 所做的事，我，嗯，非常钦佩他们取得的成就。嗯，我认为，呃，显然他最近去世了，不过史蒂夫·乔布斯，谁不钦佩史蒂夫·乔布斯呢？嗯，我认为杰夫·贝索斯正在做一些，一些很棒的事，还有其他人。包括与你竞争。呃，对，但那是件好事。事实上，每次见到杰夫·贝佐斯，我都会说，你为什么不在太空领域做得更多？对。问题的另一半是，你得到过的最佳建议。**我得到过的最佳建议。**嗯，这个，我，我认为，呃，你知道，物理学训练是一种非常好的训练，在那里，呃，它提供了一个很好的推理框架，你会受到训练，学会思考第一性原理，并从那里进行推理，而这意味着把事物归结到最

基本真理，然后以一种方式把这些真理联系起来，试着理解现实是什么样的，因为你知道，物理学面临这个问题，他们试图弄明白一些完全违反直觉的事情，所以他们必须有一个框架来得出结论，比如量子力学极其违反直觉，呃，但它是真的，嗯，所以你必须，所以物理学发展出了一个框架，用来弄明白，呃，那些并不显而易见的事情，而这就是为什么我认为这不是，这，这是很多建议，但它，它，它是正确的框架，嗯，然后，嗯，你知道，总体而言，批判性思维是，是好的，你知道，审视你是否拥有正确的公理，其他最适用的公理，呃，逻辑是否必然连贯，嗯，然后

可能结果的范围是什么，是什么，嗯，结果通常不是确定性的，它们，它们，它们是一个范围，嗯，所以你要弄清楚那些概……概率是什么，并最好确保你是庄家，你知道，去做……没关系，没关系，只要你是庄家，赌博就没关系，是的，嗯，而且，呃，你知道，其中一部分就是，要，嗯，听取批评性反馈，也就是你，呃，之前提到的，声音，征求批评性反馈，尤其是从朋友那里，嗯，因为通常他们心里会那么想，但不会告诉你，对，嗯，这里有一个问题，嗯，来自 Jal，嗯，关于你的超级高铁构想，有什么消息或进展吗？你或许可以解释一下你的超级高铁构想是什么。嗯，我说过的是，我，我要把

超级高铁的事情暂时搁置，直到我让 Tesla 实现盈利，呃，因为我觉得，如果我是 Tesla 的投资者，而他们听到我在让公司盈利之前就开始滔滔不绝地谈超级高铁，他们会说，嘿，你知道，去做，去做好你的工作，所以这就是我正在做的，嗯，我想一旦 Tesla 处于一种，处于一种已经盈利的状态，也许至少盈利 1 个季度，也许 2 个季度，那么，那么我就会，我就会谈谈超级高铁，嗯，但我认为它可能会是一种有趣的方式，呃，我的意思是，我认为它会是一种有趣的出行方式，可以真正快速地从一座城市前往下一座城市。请用 1 句话快速解释一下什么是超级高铁。嗯，它，它会是这样一种东西，比如说，速度是飞机的 2 倍，至少就总运输时间而言，嗯，也许

还要快一点，呃，它不会受到天气影响，呃，并且能够坠毁，嗯，基本上除非发生类似恐怖袭击的情况，嗯，而且，嗯，票价会是，比如说飞机票价的一半，嗯，所以它在各方面都会更好，嗯，不过是某种火车吗？它有点，它不完全是火车，它会是一种不同的，它会是一种目前并不存在的新型交通方式。陆上，陆上。对，好。地下还是地上？两者都可以。也许是某种地铁。我，我认为，我认为如果大部分位于地面以上，其资本成本会更低，但也可以走地下。好吧，也许是最后一个问题，嗯，你犯过的最大错误是什么？这个问题来自 Alexi Hill。你犯过的最大错误是什么

，你又是如何继续前进的？回头看，那真有那么严重吗？我犯过的最大错误，很多错误，其中一些，有些相当严重，嗯，嗯，我的意思是，很难说，因为最终事情的结果相当不错，所以正如这个问题真正，真正想问的，它能算多大的错误呢，嗯，呃，你知道，我在自己的第 1 家公司和 PayPal 做过很多蠢事，嗯，而且，呃，你知道，我觉得，我觉得有时候，对，我不知道，太多了，我很难说这，这就是最大的一个，你知道。举 1 个或 2 个。好吧，嗯，个人方面。好吧，当然，嗯，所以我总体上犯过的最大错误，而且我正试图纠正这一点，就是，呃，把过多的等待放在某人的才华上，而没有充分重视

他们的品格，嗯，而且我犯过好几次这种错误。事实上，随后我会说，我不会再犯这种错误了，然后我又会再犯，嗯，而且，而且我认为一个人是否有一颗善良的心确实很重要，呃，真的很重要，而且，而且我犯了他们，我犯了这个错误，如果他们 K，有时候关键就只在于大脑。以这番发自内心的话作结，我们结束了，谢谢，请和我一起感谢 L，谢谢。[音乐] 哦。[音乐]

thank you and good afternoon so we have a lot to cover Elon does a lot of things um there is at the moment one of his spaceships docked to this the space station uh the dragon spaceship this is the third time uh that it's been docked second commercial one it was launched last week many of you may have followed the launch but there was drama you know there were solar panels and all this kind of stuff we could follow it on your Twitter feed yeah Rock drama what's it can you just tell us what it's like to be Elon Musk in the control room during a launch when something happens when there's an issue uh well it's I mean it's extremely nerve-wracking I mean it's the thing about rocket launch is that all of your work is distilled into these few minutes particularly

the the first several seconds around uh the the liftoff because the worst thing that could happen with a rocket in touch word is uh if if if if you have an engine failure or some some huge failure right above the Launchpad and the whole thing can come down with about a million pounds of TNT equivalent and destroy the whole Launchpad that would be that that's what's going through my mind if case you're wondering that's actually what I'm thinking about [ __ ] um so when it clears the lightning towers and it's gotten further enough away from uh not actually destroying the Launchpad then uh then it's that's one sort of go down a notch on on um you know know uh the fear and anxiety and then after first stage separation that's another one when the second stage

lights up so it's sort of you going down um in intensity as the rocket is going up uh and the the thing is that the first three rocket launchers that we had failed okay and then the first one failed quite close to the Launchpad almost destroyed launch pad in fact I SP that day picking up rocket pieces off the reef uh which is which sucks so I think like there's a pretty powerfully ingrained fear response um as a result of that because three in a row just you know and uh the the image of those rocket failures kind of going through my mind as I'm seeing the rocket launch so that's what's going on and then in this case um you made it through the the stage separation but then there was an issue with the solar cells um tell me a little bit how you sort of

spotted the problem diagnosed it what does the team do I mean you got there in the end but um how's it work yeah so uh the solar panels were actually okay but uh and the rocket launch went went really well so that was not a problem uh where things kind of went AR right was after spacecraft separation we try to initialize the four threr pods so there there four threr pods with a combined total of 18 engines and uh the system is designed with a huge amount of redundancy so it can take all sorts of failures and still complete its Mission that's that's the whole way it's been made um in fact it can it can work with even if it has only two of the four Thruster pods working you know they can still do a mission um so three weren't working wow um and uh that

which was a huge puzzle like why are three not working because these things are cross strapped so you'd kind of think that either maybe one wouldn't work or a cross strap pair wouldn't work but not three it was really really strange so um so so we had the spacecraft just going through kind of free drift in space like we're just tumbling um and and which makes also difficult to to communicate with because the antennas are like pointing you know every which way you can imagine so we had all we had was was a a very slight 2 kilobit uh occasional two 2 kilobit Link that would go in and out um and and that was an omnidirectional signal beaming off the NASA tedra satellite system um so in order to actually improve the the we first had to improve the bandwidth

so we we actually asked the Air Force if we could have some of their longrange Camry scanners can can would they give us access and we have this um communication system that we call the mega proxy so we had to uh recode the mega proxy to go through the air force longrange dishes to to blast the the spacecraft with enough intensity to be able to upload new code uh to try to fix the problem and uh so so we wrote some new some new software to um essentially pressure slam the uh two of the three oxidizer tanks that were um refusing to pressurize um and it turned out I think we've figured out the problem which is that there's a there was a slight change made to a check valve that was in three of the tanks and on the other and we're able to replicate that problem

in the ground later um and and we're able to to to basically have the have the system build up pressure Upstream then release that pressure and slam the valve um so we're trying to give it the sort of the spacecraft equivalent of the heck maneuver basically um and and then we got one of the pods to that looked like it was making progress and uh we we didn't want to unfill the solar panels until we had at least two pods active so we could we could go from sort of drifting to to an active hold uh but then the the the temperatures of the solar panels which are in these protective covers was dropping uh and it can drop to like almost absolute zero if it's pointing in at dark space uh so uh so it was dropping dropping dropping and we're like okay [ __ ] we

better release the solar panels um otherwise they could literally freeze in place um and so we ran a simulation to see what what would what would happen um and it's actually slightly beneficial and it's kind of like when a skater you know when a skater uh puts her arms out um it slows down pull them in it speeds up so when actually when the the arms went out when the solar pan arrays went out it slowed down the rate of rotation actually slightly helped us with um maintaining communication with the spacecraft and um so then we're able to uh with with that precious lamp thing get get get a part uh active then then then a third one and then a fourth one then we got all four working and we're able to continue the mission duck with the space station in fact

dragon is currently ducked with the space station right now and um if if all goes well we'll return uh to Earth in about a week or two that sounds terrifying yeah wow that was that was Hardcore I don't want to go through that again okay um you are not just here in in in Austin for South by Southwest but also to meet with the Texas legislature to talk about possibly a launch base here in Texas tell us more about that um yeah so right now we've got uh two main launch locations one is Cape Canaveral in Florida and the other is uh venberg Air Force Base in California um and so they cap naral is good for kind of Eastward launches uh vanderberg for southernly launches and we figure we need a a third launch site that's kind of a commercial launch site you know

it's not um because cape nille and vur got Air Force baces um which is cool and it's obviously there's an important need for air force space launch bases as there is for Air Force uh airports um but then there's also a need for commercial airports and just like you wouldn't expect commercial airliners to land um at an Air Force Base in a normal course of events um it makes sense to have a commercial space port um and we need to be able to launch Eastward um and we want to be close to the equator um so that basically means uh the potential states are Virginia through Texas um going you're going south um Hawaii and Puerto Rico because the other things we need to stay on on US Territory because um rocket technology like we're doing is considered an advanced

weapons technology so it's very difficult to uh export that if you will to other countries um and uh anyway so those are our options right right now Texas is arguably the leading candidate um but uh we need certain legislation passed that's supportive of space launch um I don't think it's particularly controversial um but one of the things we need for example is we need to be able to close the beach when we're doing a launch and Texas has the open beaches act it's like okay you know we we we can't launch if there's someone right right next to the rocket you know on the beach um so that's I don't like I said I don't think it's a particularly uh controversial thing it's pretty straightforward um and and then and then we we we kind of need a littleit of

protection for kind of the the one in 10,000 person case who who complains about the thing like we had this dude who filed a lawsuit against us for our rocket development site in in Central Texas near Waco he's like not even in the same county um he's in a neighboring County and he like also thinks like the ca is listening to his brain waves um so we need like just a little bit of protection for for people like that so we're not like spending a ton of time in court um so that's basically what we're asking for it's nothing nothing major um and uh I I think it's likely to to move forward so I think you know if if things go as expected there's this it's likely that we'll have a l site in Texas which I think be really cool around when um so it depends on

how the environmental approvals go and all that but I think um I think we if if things go well I mean not all not all of it's in our hands so but assuming that things go as expected you know there'd be a decision this year and then we start construction next year and then and probably the first launches would take place in uh from there in 2 to three years terrific yeah um so um Falcon 9 or the the rocket that launched dragon is a traditional rocket which is to say it's disposable bits but you're essentially you're ultimately focused on reusable rockets and grasshopper is the name of that can you talk a little bit about what's why reusable what's different about reusable and I think you probably have some things to show as well yeah absolutely so reusability

is extremely important um if you think it's important that Humanity extend beyond Earth um and become multiplet species and all that um and I mean it's super important I thought I think it's also incredibly obvious common sense like you can imagine watching like Star Trek and then they they got a new starship after every every trip that would be pretty silly um and and and every uh motor transport that we're used to like cars Planes Trains automobiles horses bikes they're all reusable um and but but not rockets and if if we can't make rockets reusable the cost is just prohibitive the the uh like the cost of the fuel and oxygen on a falcon9 is 0.

3% of the cost of the rocket wow so it's basically it's a very tiny number it's it's very similar to uh to an airplane so it's how much does it cost to fuel up an airplane um and how much the cost of buy an airplane they're very different things so if if we're if humanity is ever to expand beyond Earth and establish a self-sustaining base on another planet it's critical that we solve this problem whether it's SpaceX or someone else someone has to solve the problem um and we can have a 100-fold reduction in the cost of space flight um so so that's what SpaceX has been trying to do um and really that's been the goal since the beginning of the company so so far I've not been very successful uh in that in that regard so but I I think we kind of have a handle

on it I think I think we've got a we've got a design that in the simulations in and in CAD and so forth it it it closes like it should work if we can build that thing it should work and uh in fact it may be worth just rolling the reusability videoos so people have a sense of what I'm talking about I don't know where that plays but behind us in front of us can people in the audience see that oh there we go right all right so what you're seeing here is that the the first stage after stage separation the first stage turns around boosts back to the Launchpad um and then lands propulsively with landing gear it's kind of how rocket should land that's that's the upper stage this is the this is the quick version of the video obviously and then you seeing Dragon

version two so Dragon version 2 will land on thrusters with landing gear with the as accurately as a helicopter so it can land anywhere on Earth as with with the accuracy of a helicopter one last question about space before we turn to to cars um you've talked before about how you decideed to get into this you were you founded you co-founded PayPal um you don't really I mean you have a Physics degree you know something about about you know the underlying mechanics but you didn't have any space experience right you decided I think on a train to go to Mars and decided that you could out compete NASA or that you could get to Mars you could get to space faster cheaper better than the one of the largest well the largest space agency in the world how did you

get that confidence uh so um well I think first of all I should say maybe give some of a preface to um what happened before starting SpaceX um in fact the way I sort of got into space was um to do I I was really disappointed that we had not sent anyone to M that we had not progressed Beyond Apollo um and I kept waiting for when we would and it just didn't happen uh year after year and and so a friend of mine asked me about what I wanted to do after PayPal and I said well you know I was always curious about space but I didn't think about that there was anything I could do do in space and and I went to the NASA website to just see when are we going to Mars and I couldn't find find that out uh I thought maybe I it was there but I well hidden or something

but um so so then I thought well perhaps this is a question of of will is there sufficient will to do this and and the first idea I came up with was actually to do a philanthropic mission to send a small Greenhouse to the surface of Mars with seeds in dehydrated gel that would hydrate upon landing and you'd have this cool Greenhouse with these green plants on a red background that would be the money shot um and and and then uh you know people like precedents and superlatives so it would be the first PL first life on another planet furthest the life's ever traveled and uh and that would get people excited and you also learn about a lot about what it to support Earth PLS Earth plants in a greenhouse on Mars um the the whole purpose of that was to get people

excited about sending people to Mars and increase NASA's budget so that was my whole goal I was going to basically torch yeah it it was not had nothing to do with competing with NASA in fact my goal was to increase their budget um and uh and and I should say that today NASA is our biggest customer um I mean um we've got almost 50 launches and uh about a quarter of those are finesse that but 34 34 commercial but one quarter NASA um and NASA's been incredibly supportive and helpful and we wouldn't be where we are today without without the help of NASA so it's not it's really got nothing to do with competing with NASA it's really just about what do we need to do to have an exciting inspiring future in space that that's that's what I think really matters

but at the end of the day you didn't end up raising the fun the money to pay NASA to do the mission you end up doing building your own company and and ideally to do it cheaper than government's good yeah um the I so I was able to to figure out how to get the cost of the spacecraft and the greenhouse and the communication system way less than it normally would cost for such a thing I got stuck on the rocket um and I went to to Russia three times to try to buy a couple of their biggest icbms um this is about this is in 2001 late 2001 and 2002 um there was definitely in interesting experience uh and uh I I sort of got the feeling I could have bought the nuke too but don't want to go there um and then when I when I got back on from the third trip to Russia

um that that's when I thought okay look uh even if we do even if we buy these these icbms from Russia um I I I I I thought it I thought my initial supposition was wrong um and so what what I thought really was that we'd lost the world to explore that we'd lost the world to push the the boundary and and and in retrospect that was actually a very foolish error uh because the United States is a nation of explorers United States is a distillation of the human Spirit of exploration it's ludicrous to to to actually in retrospect to have made such an assumption um but people need to believe that it's possible and that it's not going to it's not going to bankrupt them it's not they're not going to have to give up something important like healthcare uh you know

it's going to be a cost that isn't going to meaningfully affect their their standard of living and I think the United States would absolutely be super super excited uh about uh sending people to Mars and people I think a lot of people really wish that that would occur anyway so that was um that was what I uh came to the conclusion of and and I thought well if if we don't make a difference in the cost of the rocket of the transport system it's all it doesn't matter um it's it's not like I said it's not a question of will it's a question of way um and so that's when I came back and started the SpaceX but when I started SpaceX there wasn't with the perspective of like oh we'll just you know take over the world and with with awesome Rockets I don't know what

the pr gu is doing I was like clueless um I I thought the most likely outcome was that we would fail and and the first three rockets did fail so and you put all your money into it between Tesla SpaceX and Solar City all in yeah that wasn't the plan at the beginning by the way and Peter Tails says we don't think big anymore he must have interesting conversations with him about that uh well you know Peter's been a big supporter actually so he's uh um he invested in in uh SpaceX at at a very important time in 2008 uh before we reached orbit so after our third failure but before our first success so you know big credit to Peter and um Luke NOK and the other guys at Founders spond basically my my my buddies from PayPal my buddies from PayPal saved my butt

you know it was really really good so so let's talk about cars um uh many many in the audience May recollect the notorious New York Times review of the model S yes exactly of the model S um earlier this year yeah and your reaction to that review and the times reaction to your reaction and and and the effect on your share price and on orders and all that and without rehashing the review or the facts I'd like you just to postmortem the entire experience wait how do I not do I do postmortem without any facts or anything post postmortem postmortem your reaction okay to the review and what you know put you on the couch and what would you do differently today having seen the way it all played out um well I think um I think there's one thing I didn't do maybe

still should which is to to to post the the rebuttal to the rebuttal CU I I withheld that and waited for the public editor I sent that information to the public editor waited for her to do her sort of thing and she came down kind of on the side of Tesla with respect to the fact that the article was an error but but disagreed on the motive on the ethics yes um and um cuz you you impune both facts and ethics I I did yes um and and and I think it was I I think it was I would call it a low- grade uh ethics violation not not like a big one I don't think he thought he was doing anything particularly terrible but I I would call it a low grade low grade violation and not not not of the Jason Blair you know crazy fabrication variety but I I would call it a low

grade it was not in good faith if that that that's that's that's an important important Point um and uh and I I probably should have posted that rebuttal to make that clear but I didn't do it that's what I regret so the only change you would make is that the very last bit the rebuttal that you wrote but that has not been published you would get maybe I should you would get out there yeah so you would continue to use the same language in the same way in your I don't think the language was in accurate I really don't you've often you've often said that one of your management techniques one of the secrets of your success is that you listen to NE negative feedback yes was a times forev youw not didn't fall into the category of negative feedback I have no problem

with negative feedback I have a problem with nor do I have a problem with critical reviews if I had a problem with critical reviews I would spend all my time battling critical reviews um there have been hundreds of of negative articles hundreds and yet I've only spoken out a few times I I don't have a problem with critical reviews I have a problem with false reviews all right um one of the technologies that you had to um um you know basically develop to near Perfection or at least or at least work on hardest with lithium batteries um for the electric cars or run on lithium batteries safety has always been an issue accidents Etc um recently Boeing had uh fires with their lithium batteries and and the and the Dreamliner is now out of service because of

that um you volunteer to help the Boeing Executives I guess diagnose and redesign yeah can you talk a little bit about what they did wrong what you would have done differently and and what do you think that the the future of you know Boeing and others Airline batteries are going to be sure um well first of all on on the Boeing front I mean obviously even though SpaceX and Bo compete on the space side we have no competition on the commercial airliner side um and some of the comments that I made about Boeing have somehow been interpreted as an attack on Boeing when it is in fact not an attack on Boeing um the the only reason I actually uh I mean the main reason I I should say I offered help was that there's a friend of mine Richard Branson who's whose aine

is suffering as a result of this lithium ion fire and he he was mentioning that you know he's losing hundreds of millions or his Aline is um as a result of this this problem I said well I think we could probably help and then he so he said oh great well let me connect you with the the chief engineer um of the 787 I said cool we're happy to help so uh you know provided some some advice and hopefully that'll be helpful um and I said we're also happy to actually do the solution if you want um and uh they haven't taken us up on that offer um but we're happy to help either you an advisory capacity or or to do the solution whatever would result in the 787 getting back to flight sooner um we're just trying to be you know productive and helpful so um I mean I

think the in the case of the VY uh Boeing doesn't have a ton of In-House battery expertise so they they outsourced the the battery and then you had a whole bunch of kind of nested Outsourcing where they outsourced the battery system and then and then that got outsourced to another company then to another company and then to a whole bunch of other companies and and you're like four layers deep before you actually got to um any hardware um and so that resulted in I think in a kind of a breakdown of communication um I mean from an architectural standpoint the fundamental issue is that the is that I I I think um is that the the cells are too big the battery cells are too big and the gaps between the battery cells are are not big enough um and the problem

with a with a big battery cell is that the the thermal path pathway is is in a worst case scenario is very long so you have to say well if there's a hot spot in the battery can it get its heat out yeah and if it's deep in a Cell it can't it can't do that um and it's also hard to thermally condition the cells um the life of the pack will be will be dependent upon on the temperature the average not the average temperature but the worst temperature at any point in any cell so you want to really even that temperature out that's why Tesla is a fan of having lots of small cells yeah um and then actively cooling each cell to keep the temperature even um and make sure that if if if um Hotpot does develop it's a very short pathway to the cooling system and it

and it can you know take care of it and you also want to make sure that it's it's I'm getting quite technical here sorry um it's it's um passive propagation proof so so if you even if your active cooling system fails um and you get thermal runway in a cell that thermal Runway event can Cascade into a neighboring cell so and you get the thermal do domino effect right I mean it's not it's not super complicated um so so um you know it just if if if you have big cells you want big gaps and ideally you want you don't want big cells but if you do you want big gaps small cells small gaps yeah I mean so I mean this is this is really important because because um the the whole thing about this new generation of airplanes is that they're light they use composits

they use Electronics rather than mechanical systems and so electricity drives the whole thing so basically my understanding is that you need lithium batteries in the sky it just doesn't work any other way and your point is it can be done oh it totally can be done yeah like lithium's getting a bit of a bad name here um lithium is obviously the way to go I mean people have lithium ion batteries in their cell phones and their laptops I mean I don't think anyone's panicking here with the fact that they got a lithium ion battery you know next to a sense a region probably of their body you know got it well so just staying on on on power for one last set of questions before we um well before I return to your life which seems insane um it is insane um you're

also a chairman of Solar City which I believe is America's largest solar installer um you know so space Transportation energy just picking off the big ones there um now you know solar got a bad name over the last few years because of the cylinder meltdown Etc but you know my sense that people different are not differentiating between the making of solar cells and the using of solar cells and and the Chinese competition and the glutting of the market on the supply side is what cylinder what got cylinder in trouble they couldn't compete with the fallowing prices but you're a consumer of solar cells right so how do you see you know the Chinese Chinese competition and sort of the glut of solar of of solar cells on the market what's that good view um I mean

I think what China is doing in the solar panel arena is awesome because they're lowering the cost of solar power for the world and they have these huge gigafactories that they created out in the in the Chinese desert um and with with a ton of funding from the Chinese government so it's like a giant donation from the tiny Chinese government like thanks that's awesome you know um and uh you know people sort of complain about Sindra but I mean obviously anyone who's been involved in the Venture world knows that you about a thousand there's some companies that die the only reason we know about slender is because became of political football right um and uh I mean there are other solar panel manufacturers that are still doing reasonably well um but but but

it is tough when you're competing um I mean I think good rule of thumb was don't is don't compete with China with a commodity product yeah um you know you're really asking for for travel in that in that scenario um and and it's really super easy to make 15% efficient or standard efficiency solar panels it's super easy it's like easier than making freaking drywall at this point um so it's like does anybody think we should be competing with China in drywall manufacturing okay probably not so um so so that's the thing so and and the the the hard part of solar power is not the panel it's it's actually the whole system it's basically designing something that's going to fit on a particular rooftop CU all you have all these heterogeneous rooftops um then you've

got to you've got to mount the system you've got to wire it up you got to Connected the inverters connected to the grid you got to do all the permitting I mean it's a bunch of like thorny unglamorous stupid problems but if somebody doesn't optimize them they're still going to cost a ton of money um and and a lot of them are really not they're not fun problems they're not you know exciting problems to to optimize but but but they are the problems that actually matter in the cost of of solar power so it's it's really more like you know like a like a a roofing contractor than it is a Semiconductor Company I mean what what you're doing is you're putting a second roof on a building yeah okay so and you got to do it at scale and then you got to manage all these

systems because there's still some I mean even though the after sales service is small when you've got like hundreds of thousands of systems that's still a lot to manage um and and so what Solar City really is is a giant distributed utility um and it's working in partnership with the the house and business um and in competition with the the big sort of Monopoly utility I mean I think it's like literally power to the people okay it's like literally so I think it's really awesome CU utility just never had any competition before yeah um and and now they're like they have to actually think about the cost of power and and figure out better ways to do it and that kind of thing I think it's really great um and and the credit there is really due to lyen and Peter

RI co-founders uh I mean I throw in a few ideas every now and then but mostly it's just about showing up at the board meeting to hear the good news it's those guys are just doing such an awesome job so you are CEO and CTO of SpaceX so not just running the company but you're actually Chief technology officer as well you are CEO and chief product designer for Tesla so not just running the company but designing the cars yeah and you're chairman of Solar City right what is your life like it's it's it's very busy uh and uh I'd actually like to take it down just a scooch honestly um because there there all these I mean these these things that the last few years have been really really great um but then there were a number of years that sucked horribly um and

uh I'd like to just just not have it be so extreme um uh and like last year was a year of great achievement but honestly I didn't have that much fun it sucked I didn't have that much fun um my newest resolution was to have a little bit more fun this year so hey I'm at South by Southwest you know and you have five children do they're awesome kids are awesome by the way you guys should all have kids kids are great uh how much do you see them I I don't see them enough actually but but I uh uh what what I find is that I'm able to be with them and uh still be on email because I don't need like constant interaction except when we're talking directly so um I find I can be with them and still be you know working at the same time um but wait wait are you saying

you can do email while you're with your children yeah absolutely sure um wow I mean not all the time but a lot of the time um that's that's why it's tny to have a phone you can sort of you do email in in interstitial moments um in the absence of that I would not be able to get my job done wow that's uh impressive um we [Music] are I have five children I can't do email while I'm with my children it's not good for the children and it's really not good for the email well I I do have to have a nanny there otherwise they'll kill each other so um yeah um we are going to turn to audience questions at this point um just a reminder that um if you tweet your questions hash askm musk there's a team in the back that will be selecting the um the ones that we haven't

already covered and seem interesting and I get them in front maybe you can see them as well so as the first one from David soless um he asked when it comes to researching analyzing entrepreneurial opportunity how do you go about qualifying or legitimizing presumably the idea sure um well um I'm not sure I'm the best guide here because things that I've chosen have not been um op I've not been trying to optimize on a risk adjusted return basis so there are uh like I I would not say that I went to The Rocker business the car business uh or the solar business thinking that it's a it's a great opportunity I just thought that that something needed to be done in in these uh Industries in order to make a difference and that's why I did it so um but but in general

I do think it's worth thinking about like what whether what you're doing is going to result in disruptive change or not if it's just incremental it's unlikely to to be something major it it's it's got to be something that's substantially better than than what's gone on before that cues up to our next question really well um this is from uh Craig lre um space Automotive Finance energy you've disrupted major industries what would you do if you had a free Reign Over education um well I I think that the way that we currently do education is is is wrong and and we're when you see something like the KH Academy and so forth I think that's probably going in the right direction Direction I mean generally you want education to be like as close to a video game as

possible like a good video game like you do not need to tell your kid to play video games they will play video games on autopilot all day so if you can make it interactive and engaging uh then then you can make education far more compelling and and far easier to do um so I think that's how it should be and it shouldn't be that you've got like these grades where people move in lock step um and so everyone goes through you know goes like normally you will go through English math uh science and so forth from like fifth grade to sixth grade to seventh grade like it's an assembly line U but but people are not objects on an assembly line that's a ridiculous notion um people learn and are interested in different things at different Paces so you really want to

um disconnect the whole grade level thing from the the subjects allow people to progress at the fastest Pace that they can or are interested in in each subject um it seems like a really obvious thing um I mean I think like most teaching today is is a lot like fordville where um and it's and as a result just not not that compelling it's like somebody standing up there and lecturing to you and they've done the same lecture several years in a row they're not necessarily all that engaged or or in doing it um and you compare that to say Batman The Dark Knight okay um and then you've got like the world's best special effects You' got the world's best director screenwriter multiple cuts um amazing you know editing and um and and and and and that's amazing but

but like imagine if instead you had like the local Town um aspiring actor do uh the a oneperson Play version of that yeah that would not be compelling yeah do do you agree with Peter te about the classmates um because you can always buy the textbooks and just read them like nobody stopping you from doing that or go online or go online um so uh now now for a lot of companies they they they do want to see the completion of the degree because they're looking for um someone who's going to persevere and see it through to the end and and that's actually what what what's important to them so it really depends on on what somebody's goal is if the goal is to start a company I would say no point in finishing uh College um in my case I had to otherwise i' get kicked

out of the country yeah um so uh that was important but although you went on and got a master's degree as well right um I I came out silic valy to do a PhD at Stanford and applied physics and Material Science to work on um Ultra capacitors for use in electric cars and that's what I was going to do and then I started put that on hold to start a company but since I already had my under undergrad I could then get H1B visa and that kind of thing so H1B Visa requires uh a degree um but other than that I I would have if what that wasn't the case I probably would have stopped education sooner did you not go to Wharton for yeah yeah they did dual undergrading physics and and business at Wharton I see yeah but it was undergrad not not Masters understood um another

question from the audience from Dan Griffith um fill in the blank you will be disappointed if blank does not happen in your lifetime um um well probably the most thing I just pointed out is if if Humanity doesn't land on Mars in my lifetime I'd be really disappointed that would be you know that that would probably be my biggest disappointment um and uh yeah I think I think that's the thing I'm most concerned about because because we're at this obviously that's what SpaceX is working on um so I'm not trying to be self- serving here but it's just I kind of worry that we've hit this if I I don't know whether our technology level will keep going or subside and for the first time in 4 and a half billion years the technology level is at the point where we can

extend life to another planet make life multiplanetary and um I I think it's too easy to take for granted that it's going to stay above that level um and if it doesn't and it falls below that will it return who who knows um uh you know the the sun is gradually expanding and in about you know roughly 500 million years maybe a billion years the outside um uh the oceans will boil and and there will be no no meaningful life on Earth I mean it might be like some you know chatres or or ultra high temperature bacteria or something but nothing that can make a spaceship um and and that's like if you think of like maybe it's a 500 million year time frame that's only a 10% increase in the life of lifespan of Earth so if if if um Humanity had taken an extra 10% longer

to get here it wouldn't have gotten here at all yeah um and so far we haven't seen any signs of life from other worlds that we we haven't detected anything I hope you know hopefully we do and hopefully it's not a warship coming towards us um uh but uh I I just think that's the thing that really concerns me we we we we need to get this done um and and then that is the best thing we can do to ensure the continued existence of humanity um so that's why I would say that's the most important thing do you personally do you do you personally want to step foot on Mars I I do personally want to step foot on Mars um but honestly I would be doing this even if there was no even if I knew there was no chance of me going to Mars it's because I think like I said I think

it's just important that we are on a path to getting there um so um I I would like to go at some point I I'll go if I'm certain that SpaceX will be fine without me um and that that path will continue um cuz that you may have heard me uh some may have heard the joke I've made before which is like you know I I I I would I think be I would like to die on Mars just not on impact you know so another question uh from the um audience so we just we just lost lost that one there was I don't remember um who had asked this question but the question was um uh which um when when which do you think is going to have more impact on the world SpaceX or Tesla well I I think if we look back or if historians if I would look back on the impact of Tesla many years from now

I think uh it would be that Tesla hopefully the Tesla Advanced the Advent of sustainable transport by something like a decade maybe maybe two decades um but I do think electric cars are inevitable in fact I think all modes of Transport will go fully electric with the ironic exception of rockets um so that's uh that's what I think and then for for Solar City perhaps something similar on the energy production site sustainable energy production then uh for SpaceX hopefully SpaceX deel develops the technology necessary to transport large numbers of people in Caro to Mars um and um I mean I think that's um you know a bigger impact but rather the what what Solar City and Tesla are about are solving what I think is the most pressing terrestrial concern which

is the sustainable production and consumption of energy or helping solve it I mean there's many people solving it um and then what SpaceX is about is helping solve the biggest non-terrestrial problem which is the extension of life beyond Earth so th those are how I see it we have two related questions one that's no longer on the screen but uh and another one that is um the first was what was the best advice you ever got and the second you maybe can join them in your answer is you mentioned working with your friends Peter teal and Richard Branson who influences and inspires you sure um well I I'm inspired by a lot of historical figures like one of my favorite guys is Ben Franklin you know I just think he's you know he's a really guy I mean he was a scientist

and he also I mean worked in um obviously publishing and the political sphere but he kind of like he just thought about like what are the what are the problems that need to get solved and and worked on those um and he was just a seemed like a good guy all around um so really I like him and um and I like just the historical figures like in science and um literature and I mean uh F found of Churchill um and uh and obviously like Tesla we named Tesla after Nicola Tesla better than musk Motors you know um and actually haven't named any product or company after myself uh but but that maybe gives a sense of like I think like Tesla is someone who deserves a lot of recognition um and uh sorry what was the well they're all dead any figures um yeah I mean I think

um there's a friend of mine uh Like Larry Page I think what Larry's doing uh and Sergey at Google I'm um really admire what they've done um I think uh obviously he's recently dead but Steve Jobs who doesn't admire Steve Jobs um I think Jeff Bezos is doing some some great things and among others competing with you uh yes but that's a good thing in fact every time I see Jeff bezas I say why aren't you doing more in space yeah the other half of the question was the best advice you ever got best advice I ever got um well I I think the uh you know the physics training is a very good Training where uh it's a good framework for reasoning where you're trained to think about first principles and reason from there and that means boiling things down to the most

fundamental truths and then connecting those truths in a way to to try to understand how reality is because you know physics has this problem where they're trying to figure out things that are totally counterintuitive and so they had to have a framework for for getting there like quantum mechanics is incredibly counterintuitive uh but it's true um and so you had so so physics developed a framework for for figuring out uh things that aren't obvious and that's why I think it's it's not it's it's a lot of advice but it's it's it's the right framework um and then um you know just in general critical thinking is is good you know examining whether you have the correct axioms other the most applicable axioms uh does the logic necessarily connect um and then

what are the what are the range of probable outcomes um outcomes are usually not deterministic they're they're they're a range um and so you want to figure out what those Pro probabilities are and make sure ideally that you're the house you know it's it's fine to take it's it's fine to it's fine to gamble as long as you're the house yes um and uh you know and a subset of that is is to to um listen to critical feedback which you alluded to uh earlier voice solicit critical feedback particularly from friends um because generally they will be thinking it but they won't tell you yeah um a question here um from Jal um any news or development on your hyperloop idea and you might explain what your hyperloop idea is is well um what I've said is that I'm I'm putting

the hyperloop stuff on hold until I get Tesla to profitability U because I think if I was an investor in Tesla and they heard me sort of spouting off about the hyperloop before I got the company profitable they were like hey you know go do go do your job so that's what I'm doing um I think once Tesla is in a in a has been profitable maybe for at least for a quarter maybe two quarters then then I'll I'll talk about the hyperloop um but I think it could be an interesting way to uh I mean I think it would be an interesting way to travel really quickly from one city to the next quickly explain just in one sentence what a hyperloop is well um it it would be something that would be say twice as fast as a plane at least in terms of total Transit time um maybe

a little faster uh it would be immune to weather uh and capable of crashing um pretty much unless it was like a terrorist attack um and um the ticket price would be like let's say half that of a plane um so it' be better in every way um train of some sort though it's kind of it's not exactly a train it would be a different it would be a new mode of transportation that doesn't currently exist terrestrial terrestrial yeah okay underground above ground could go either a kind of Subway perhaps I I think it's I think it's the capital cost would be less if it's mostly above ground but you can go underground too all right maybe the last question um what's the biggest mistake you've ever made and this is from Alexi Hill what's the biggest mistake you've ever

made and how did you move forward looking back was it really that big a deal biggest mistake I've made lots of mistakes some of them some are pretty big um um I mean it's hard to say CU things have worked out pretty well in the end so how how big of a mistake could it have been as the as the question is really really asking um uh you know I did lots of dumb things at my first company and at PayPal um and uh you know I think I think sometimes yeah I don't know there's so many I like I'm hard pressed to say this is this is the biggest one you know give this one or two okay um personal okay sure um so there the biggest mistake in general that I've made and I'm trying to correct for that is uh to put too much of a waiting on somebody's talent and not enough

on their personality um and I've made that mistake several times in fact then i' would say I'm not going to make that mistake again then I would make it again um and and I think it actually matters uh whether some somebody has a good heart it really does and and I've made them I've made the mistake if they K that sometimes it's just about the brain on that heartfelt note we're done thank please join me in thanking L thank you [Music] oh [Music]