[音乐] 早上好，斯坦福。我得告诉你们，看到这么多学生一大早就起来，对大学校长来说确实是一段很棒的经历，我非常高兴你们能来参加，我可以告诉你们，今天上午你们将会迎来一场引人入胜的讨论。如果你们想想我们的大学以及它的独特之处，那就是 Jane 和 Leland 横跨全国来到西海岸、协助创办这所大学时带给我们的那种大胆的创业精神、那种开拓精神。今天，我们仍致力于追求能够改变世界的机会，以重要的方式运用我们的知识，努力应对我们面临的重大挑战，但这种创业精神不只是创办

下一家初创企业，它也关乎培训和教育那些将走出去、让我们的世界变得更好的人，而那些创新存在于所有战争行列，从我们提供的医疗护理和处理健康问题的新方法，到能源效率、机器人、艺术，再到我们所做的一切，但每项创新都始于一个想法，每个想法都始于某个想象出它的人，而这正是今天的主题。斯坦福技术创业项目的未来盛会提供了一个机会，让我们审视并庆祝突破和开拓性技术对我们世界的影响，我很高兴你们今天上午都能参加。这项活动由 STVP 与斯坦福艺术合作举办，未来盛会将成为讨论未来主义技术的场所

发生，而今天我们将听到 2 位深远思考的人士发言，阿隆·马斯克和史蒂夫·杰松。史蒂夫是斯坦福校友，也是 Draper Fisher Jinson 的合伙人。他最近被《纽约时报》誉为太空投资者和火箭制造者，他的公司同时投资了 SpaceX 和卫星公司 Planet Labs。史蒂夫曾 3 次成为斯坦福校友，而且他还有一个重要特征，就是他曾经是我的顾问。尽管有这个不利条件，他还是在 2 年半内完成了电气工程学士学位，成为 Henry Ford 学者，随后取得硕士学位，而且尽管我试图说服他攻读博士学位，他还是离开去斯坦福大学商学院取得了 MBA，并在那里成为 RJ Miller 学者。他受到认可

广泛认为他具有前瞻性，《旧金山纪事报》和《观察家报》将他评为预计会在 21 世纪初期对湾区产生最大影响的 10 人之一。现在，阿隆·马斯克，我认为凡是思考未来的人都知道这个名字。他是一位连续创业者、发明家、工程师和投资者。他出生于南非，曾就读于加拿大 Queens University，之后移居美国，并在宾夕法尼亚大学取得经济学和物理学本科学位。他来到斯坦福攻读物理学博士学位，但 2 天后就离开了。我说，怎么了，阿隆，是食物、水还是天气的问题？不是，他离开是为了创办自己的第 1 家初创企业 Zip 2，这是一家成功的互联网城市 gu，然后他

接着创办了 PayPal。他于 2002 年创办了自己的第 3 家公司 SpaceX，6 年后，NASA 授予他一份向国际空间站运输货物的合同。他是 Tesla Moda 的早期投资者，如今以首席执行官兼产品架构师的身份领导这家公司。但阿隆有宏大的梦想，正如他几年前告诉 CNN 的那样，我们不应该仅仅因为有可能发生一定程度的悲剧，就害怕去做某件事。如果我们的先辈采取了那种做法，美国就不会存在。完全赞同。我想，当你看到 Alan 所做的这种工作时，而我仍记得自己第 1 次南下洛杉矶参观 SpaceX，并在问世前看到第 1 辆 Tesla 原型车，我意识到他将改变世界。这将是一场精彩的交流

在 stepen Alan 的讨论之后，stvp 执行主任 Matt Harvey 将为本次活动收尾，但现在，请和我一起热烈欢迎阿隆·马斯克和 Steve jersson 来到斯坦福。[掌声] [音乐] [掌声] [音乐] 谢谢 Hennessy 校长，呃，这个场地让人望而生畏。我觉得我们应该唱首歌什么的，也许跳个舞。哇，好吧。那么，呃，今天的未来节，呃，全部围绕未来展开，而要谈论这个话题，我想象不出比埃隆·马斯克更合适的人选。大家都知道，他正在横跨多个行业塑造未来，而且一次又一次以最为壮观的方式做到这一点，以一种前人曾经失败、或许也是历史上前所未有的方式。所以我是个大粉丝。未来节最初，我想，兜兜转转，而为什么选在这个月，因为这个

月对未来节而言很特别，原因是，呃，在座各位中年纪足够大、而且看起来可能只有5或6位，曾经历过电影《回到未来》上映的年代；在这个系列的第2部里，他们设想了未来，通过时间扭曲快进到了未来，当时是2015年10月，呃，他们有飞行汽车、悬浮滑板、生物识别、视频通话，以及很多时候看起来像 Google Glass 的东西，还有许多完全荒诞不经的其他玩意儿。不过，嗯，其中一些梦想成真了，一些没有。作为未来节的框架，我们可以回望过去，看看我们那些实现或没有实现的梦想。我想我们会从这里开始，然后转向未来。我们正坐在这里

今天，我们认为未来可能预示着什么？所以转向埃隆，也许作为一个、作为作为一个起点，当你回想30年前的高中岁月，那时我们俩都在那里，并梦想着那个未来，今天有哪些符合或不符合你当时的想法？我的意思是，你对未来的梦想、那些大胆愿景，哪些已经或尚未在今天成为现实？我认为，我们今天确实拥有的最了不起的东西是互联网，嗯，以及从任何地方获取全世界所有信息的能力。所以，口袋里有一台 superc 计算机，我认为这是人们不会预料到的，嗯，你知道，在《回到未来》里。是的。嗯，所以那是，那是最重要的东西。嗯，还有，呃，而且可能最令他们惊讶的

是我们在太空领域没有取得更大的进展。嗯，所以我认为人们原本会期待有一家太空酒店，事实上 oy Clark 的《2001》应该，是的，没错，嗯，认为2010年的太空进展真的非常疯狂，你知道，会像是前往木星之类的事情。所以那可能是最令人惊讶的事情，尤其是如果你再往前追溯，如果你说在' 69年，嗯，人们首次登上月球时，嗯，如果你问过人们，如果你问过公众，2015年的情形会是什么样，我认为他们会想象我们会在月球上拥有一座基地，在火星上拥有一座基地，而且你知道，到现在已经遍布整个太阳系了。嗯哼。那可能是 V 发生的事情。我的意思是，对于我们的梦想

以及科幻现实会在哪里偏离现实、又在哪里成为现实。有没有，有没有什么原因让你这样想，比如当你，因为因为我们今天梦想着，你知道，我们会在不久的将来拥有这些火星殖民地，而且，呃，是啊。好吧，除非你突然想到什么，否则让我，让我，我顺便也收到了现场观众提出的一大堆问题。我想，我想随着时间向前推进，转向一个稍微更贴近当下的话题。20年前我们初次见面时，你正在创办自己的第1家互联网公司，共2家，是 PayPal 之前的那一家，U Zip 2。我知道你年轻时设想过多个需要改变的行业，嗯，当你追求第1个行业时，你是否想象过自己会走到下一个

再下一个？没有。我的意思是，我上大学时只是想，嗯，哪些事情最有可能影响人类的未来，就是，你知道，从宏观层面来看。嗯，看起来会是互联网和可持续能源，呃，成为，比如，多行星的，嗯，然后是遗传学和 AI。我认为前3个，如果你从事这些领域，几乎肯定会是好的，而最后2个就净收益而言要更可疑一些。是的，因为它们是双刃剑，而你不确定哪一刃更糟。有意思。所以，这似乎引出了一个问题：遗传学和 AI 是否是今天的学生在展望时适合思考的领域？我的意思是，它们是，是的。嗯，我的，我的表亲，我，一个

比我年轻的表亲，他即将完成，嗯，呃，某种物理学和计算机科学学位，呃，实际上是在伯克利。嗯，我们，我们知道，而且，嗯，他，呃，他说那里的每个人，计算机科学系的每个人都在研究 AI。所以我的意思是，我认为未来几年我们会在那个领域看到一些疯狂的突破。是的，稍后当我们更多探讨你对未来的愿景时，我想再回到这个话题。不过，当你回想年轻时的自己，你知道，现场许多人本身就是大学生，或者在“安德·阿特拉德”项目中，并且正在思考他们即将进入的世界。我很好奇，这也许是个奇怪的问题，但我觉得很有意思：今天在这里回顾年轻时的自己，是否有什么建议

是你希望凭借后见之明、根据你现在所知道的事情，能够给年轻时的自己的？嗯，我的意思是，我会给，比如，很多建议。我，是啊，约会，还有诸如此类的一大堆事情。是的，我明白，明白你的意思。但只是就如何，如何思考人生轨迹，也许，或者，嗯，如何追求你的热情而言。我的意思是，我对事情最终的结果还算满意，嗯，所以就像，说得也是，还不算糟。嗯，是的，这一点说得好。呃，我，我想如果有什么的话……如果你突然想到什么就告诉我，但让我，呃，我的意思是，除了显而易见的事情，比如直接告诉年轻时的自己未来究竟会如何展开，这是，对的，但，但那，那你知道，不会是，那并不完全是建议，更像是被浓缩成非

时间扭曲式的智慧。是的，是的，没错，就像智慧。嗯，嗯，我的意思是，我的意思是，有很多事情。我的意思是，这有点，我的意思是，当然，嗯，是的，我的意思是，呃，你知道，要更多地听取批评性反馈。嗯，知道，呃，我的意思是，比如我在大学里学到的很多东西实际上都相当有帮助。我的意思是，我认为物理学的思考方式非常好，比如第一性原理的方法。嗯，而你把它广泛地运用了。是的，运用，运用第一性原理的思考方法，嗯，我认为是弄清违反直觉的，嗯，情形的一种好方法。嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，所以我觉得那是，那确实是学到的一件非常有帮助的事情。嗯，那很好。是的，我的意思是，是的，对，继续。啊，不不，请随时插话，因为我不知道自己会怎么回答那个问题。

我是说，其他的，对，你会怎么做，你会对你自己说什么，一切都会好起来的，你没有自己以为的那么书呆子气，像这样的建议，没什么真正太可执行的，别担心，嗯，就是别对所有事情都那么缺乏安全感，你对什么都缺乏安全感，对，这可能就是给我自己的建议，不过，呃，不过我们再往前聊聊这个，我不习惯思考我自己，嗯，所以你，我，我可能在这里做了大致的过度概括，但在我看来，似乎常常有某个触发性问题，会让你在创办新公司时在脑中产生一个很棒的解决方案，所以比如说，在试图与俄罗斯人谈判发射能力时，你恍然大悟，我们应该直接造一枚更好的火箭来解决这个问题，或者当你，呃，应对

洛杉矶405号公路上的通勤之类的问题时，就会想，我的天，大众交通到底出了什么问题，然后，也许就有了超级高铁，然后你知道，对于，对于，呃，各种各样的想法，似乎都有某个触发点，世界上有什么东西坏了，而你有一个如何修好它的想法，我想我好奇的并不是你如何选择感兴趣的领域和解决方案，而是你如何决定什么不去修，以及换句话说，世界上有许多需要修复的事情，这里的学生大概能想到一长串，其中许多事情你大概都能想象出运用物理学第一原理方法得出的解决方案，但你是否使用过什么框架或理念，来筛掉你不做、不追求的事情，嗯，对，我是说

嗯，如果，如果算是沿着我最初做的事来说，嗯，你知道，回到大学时期，我当时在研究，嗯，用于电动汽车的储能技术，嗯，而那其实就是我原本打算在斯坦福研究的东西，也就是研究，嗯，像先进电容器和电池，以提高，呃，电动汽车的能量密度，嗯，然后互联网差不多正在兴起，很明显，像是互联网正在兴起，就在大约' 9495年的时候，而，呃，我不确定我在博士阶段研究的东西是否真的会有用，所以我就想，我真的担心，如果我，时机，或者你的直觉是什么，意思是，我觉得，像是它可能在学术上有用，但在实践中没有用，嗯，比如我觉得它可能会带来一个博士学位，并给知识之树增添一些叶

子，嗯，但然后，然后却发现，嗯，它其实不会真的有什么影响，比如那是，你知道，它会不会是一个足够好的、真的能用于电动汽车的东西，我不确定，我是说，所以就像是，我不确定成功是否是可能的结果之一，比如我觉得也许是，但我不确定，而且，而且后来我想，嗯，如果我在做这件事的时候眼看着互联网被建立起来，嗯，那，那，那会非常令人沮丧，有一种迫在眉睫的时机感，就像那正是互联网的时代，也许其他东西可以等等，或者放在你脑海的次要位置，它是否一直像是总有一天我会回来做它，还是说，嗯，对，我想我大概会

回过头来做它，而最终也确实那样做了，嗯，不过对，我当时觉得，大致上，互联网正在兴起，像是真的开始腾飞了，嗯，尽管在'95年，大多数人还没有意识到这一点，嗯，而，呃，所以我觉得，像是电动汽车技术、储能技术会有某种自然的发展过程，我以后可以再回来做它，嗯，但互联网，你知道，当时确实，确实就是那个真正该做点什么的时刻，嗯，虽，虽然在'95年时，你能否真的在互联网上赚到钱并不明显，这就像是，不，在网景上市以前，我想是在95年末，嗯，甚至没有人认为，像是，呃，你可以在互联网上创建一家有价值的公司，它不像现在看起来这么显而易见，对，就像现在

这看起来非常显而易见，但在当时完全不是，嗯，所以从那个角度来看，真的不是像，哦，我想赚一大笔钱，实际上是出于，就像是，我只是想成为 fing 这个东西的一部分，我觉得它就像，像一个神经系统，就像以前人们实际上是通过渗透来有效交流，而，嗯，你知道，你基本上必须在物理上，你知道，与某个人建立连接，才能真正交流，嗯，你，比如一封信，比如你寄信，像是在纸上，嗯，而有了互联网，世界上任何地方只要有人拥有连接，就能获取全世界的所有信息，就有点像一个神经系统，所以，像，所以人类实际上正在变成一个超级有机体，嗯，而且在性质上

不同于，呃，以前的样子，所以我想成为其中的一部分，而，呃，嗯，对，所以，但是，但最初的目标只是赚到足够付房租的钱，并不是，嗯，你知道，要做任何超出那之外的事情，有意思，而后来正如许多人所知，那笔资本中的很大一部分又被投入到你的下一批企业里，对，对，没错，完全正确，所以然后它们，而且，而且互联网也很有帮助，因为任何与软件有关的事情都是低资本投入的事业，所以我当时没有任何钱，嗯，我只有一大堆学生债务，而，嗯，所以，但是，但软件你自己一个人就可以写，嗯，而且你不需要很多原子，就像你不需要很多工具和设备，而，嗯，所以它不是资本密集型的，嗯，所以创办一家公司的能力，嗯

如果它与软件有关，而且是第一家公司，就会容易得多，对，对，而且现在这似乎显而易见，但当然，那是更容易起步的地方，然后随着你获得更多个人声誉，并拥有更多个人资本，据我所知，SpaceX 在最初一段时期几乎，完全是由埃隆资助的，部分来自，你知道，而且是在一个其他人大概不会为它提供资金的时代，对，而那些是，对，而且实际上，我是说，SpaceX 的前身并不是，那个想法并不真是要创建一家公司，而是，嗯，是要试着弄清楚为什么我们还没有，嗯，去把人送上火星，所以，嗯，所以，所以我们从 sub2 发展到 PayPal，然后，嗯，然后从 PayPal 转向算是下一件事时，我大致是在想，嗯，是否有某种

办法可以重新点燃阿波罗之梦，嗯，而我当时想，嗯，这也许是一个像是我们已经失去了探索它的意愿的问题，嗯，但实际上我认为，那，那个我最初的前提是错误的，我们并没有失去探索的意愿，但人们认为没有办法，而如果人们认为没有办法，那他们，他们就不会不停地用头撞墙，他们会，你知道，他们多少会放弃，所以，嗯，但是，但，但是一开始我以为这是一个意愿问题，所以，所以如果我们能把一个小型温室送到火星表面，而你，而你有种子和，呃，营养凝胶，并且你在着陆时给它补水，然后火星表面就会有这个小温室，而人们往往会对先例和“之最”作出反应

而据我们所知，这将是火星上的第一个生命，就此而言，这是生命有史以来旅行过的地方，你会拍到这张很棒的照片，红色背景上是绿色植物，而我想，嗯，也许这会让人们对把人送上火星感到兴奋，所以一旦你成功了，新闻标题在你脑中很清楚，以及那会带来什么，从而催化行动，而，而且实际上，目标是，是让公众对此感到兴奋，并让，嗯，NASA 的预算增加，所以那其实是，最初的目标，而，嗯，所以我在2001年前往俄罗斯，试图购买一些洲际弹道导弹，嗯，那是很有意思的经历，很多伏特加，对，很多伏特加，对，太疯狂了，嗯，而，呃，我买不起常规火箭，比如波音和洛克·希德的火箭太贵了，而，呃，现在仍然

是，对，仍然相当昂贵，这是真的，我得，抱歉，等等，我可以在这里插一句吗，因为你刚才讲的那件轶事，是想改变政府政策，并激励世界建立一个火星计划，可以这么说，无论是民众起义还是政府层面的太空计划，我觉得这是件很吸引人的轶事，因为在某种意义上，你说的是，我作为个人想创办一个实体、企业或其他什么，它将催化甚至超越公司层面或行业层面的变化，而我在你采取的其他举措中看到了相似之处，因为如果你看看，呃，Tesla 在你领导下的目标，那就是确保所有车辆向电动化转型，而不仅仅是目前由 Tesla 生产的汽车

还有，呃，就 Powerwall 和 SolarCity 而言，可以说，这种描述就是在推动一场向可再生能源的全面转变。所需的许多解决方案并不会由你正在创办的公司提供。因此，当我每天作为一名风险投资家从事创业相关工作时，我们看到了这里这种令人惊叹的宏大抱负，令人叹为观止。比如史蒂夫·乔布斯和其他人所谈的用一家公司改变世界，也许是改变一个行业，但我们谈的是在某种意义上改变整个世界的时代精神，甚至最终可能改变其他世界。所以我的问题是，在你的头脑中，你是否总是从那个出发，把它当作一个，比如，我……起点在哪里？是不是，好，我看到了这样一条故事弧线，比如火星的例子，或者可再生

能源，然后你会不会往回推，找出最好的产品在哪里，以便解……让它不再卡住？比如，为什么这件事没有发生？如果我解决那个问题，它就会释放价值。比如，这在你的头脑中是怎样发生的？嗯，当然。那么，嗯，我是说，我应该说，比如，当我们创办 SpaceX 和 Tesla 时，我，我是说，我真的认为成功的概率非常低。我的意思是，并不是说我想，哦，我们肯定会成功。我当时觉得，我觉得我们可能只有 10% 的可能性。谁，呃，是的。嗯，而且，它们……我们在 2008 年差一点就让两家公司都没能成功。你知道，我们经历了 SpaceX 火箭的 3 次失败。嗯，所以我们是 0 比 3。嗯，我们遭遇了疯狂的金融衰退，比如大衰退。嗯，Tesla 的融资轮次已经告吹，因为

比如，要为一家初创汽车公司融资相当困难，FGM 和克莱正在破产。嗯，比如，人们……这对上行空间来说是波利。是的，那是件棘手的事。嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，不幸的是，在 2008 年年底，第 4 次发射，也就是，那是我们还有钱进行的最后一次发射，呃，对 SpaceX 来说成功了。然后我们，我们完成了 Tesla 的那轮融资，你知道，呃，在 2008 年平安夜，在最后一个可行日子的最后 1 个小时。是的，也要感谢你。对于那些不知道的人来说，这是我见过最非凡的创业热忱和投入之举，当时埃尔·昂亲自在那几个小时里拯救了 Tesla，比如在其他任何人都不愿意开支票的时候，他为这一切发了声，而这让心态从恐惧转向了贪婪，所有人都加入了

加入这股潮流，然后一切都变了，从，你知道，分到地下变成了成功，但你愿意让他全部净资产中的个人部分变成净负值，而这、这是一个不值得注意的故事，嗯——哦，顺便感谢你的支持，非常、非常感激——是的，我们很乐意紧随其后，但、但这一切都是他做到的，嗯。所以我想，从宏观图景的这个助手角度来说，我很好奇，我刚才听到你描述温室和那些标题的方式很有意思，当你推出那些朝着一个宏大得多的愿景迈进一步的新产品时，那些营销标题会在你脑海中闪过吗？我很好奇，因为它似乎有两个目的，比如让员工、客户、所有人都对这个愿景热血沸腾，但

它也在很多方面让这件事显得超越现实。嗯，我，如果你试图说服公众做某件事，你就必须说，好吧，这读起来会是什么样，嗯，我们要努力传达什么信息，嗯，人们会对什么作出反应，如果我是，你知道，某种客观的公众成员，我会对什么作出反应，而且，嗯，所以那、那其实就是，你知道，如果你试图改变人们的想法，或者让人们为某件事激动起来，嗯，那你就必须想，好吧，那个信息是什么，什么、什么能让他们真正兴奋起来，嗯——顺便说一句，我认为这对在场所有工程系学生都是非常好的建议——是的，那是，我也是 wi。我、我很好奇，有一个，有时作为这些宏大愿景的附属，比如让它成为一个多行星的

物种，或推动我们转向可再生能源，或让所有车辆都实现电动化，这里面都有一种使命驱动的元素，有一种高于季度利润底线的崇高使命。事实上，我记得有一份著名的 Tesla 季度报告，它开头的，确切说开场第一句话是，呃，“虽然利润并非优先事项”，逗号，“你知道，绝不，尽管如此”，没错。而且我一开始对此很震惊，后来我的确想到，对我来说，这并不像是某种误入歧途的受托责任问题。在我看来，如果你的商业模式比现有模式更差，你怎么可能引领行业转型？我的意思是，比如，如果你长期来看不能获得更高利润，也不是一家更好的企业，为什么会有人转变，对吧？所以这几乎像是，凭借

正确的使命，利润就会随之而来。是的，嗯，如果，如果，如果你制造一个，如果，你知道，如果产出比投入更有价值，而这其实就是，那就是，那就是利润，比如产出比投入更有价值，嗯，那，那，那说明你，你有一家使用公司。嗯，所以，但你知道，在高增长情境下，你会为未来的产出进行多得多的投入，因此你会出现负现金流和缺乏盈利能力，而我们目前在 Tesla 就是如此。嗯，但从，从长期来看，当然必须，那必须得到解决，长期不可能一直是负现金流，嗯，而且需要有，嗯，净正产出，嗯，从长期来看，这差不多就是利润。嗯，但在短期内，当这种高增长，那，那，那

不是吗，这并不是最明智的做法，然后还有一些相关的事情，比如开放专利，以及在我看来与这一使命相关的行动：让整个汽车行业都来做这件事。因此我很好奇，从你的有利位置来看，你认为使命驱动型公司有哪些好处？也就是说，当你拥有这样一件每位员工和客户都知道是公司使命的事情时，你认为它会怎样转化为公司的收益？嗯，我认为，我认为拥有一个提议肯定会吸引全世界最优秀的人才，因为，嗯，如果，如果人们可以，如果有某件事本身令人愉快，经济回报也不错，同时它又确实能够改变世界，那么那就是

我认为那是一种相当强大的动力。嗯，而且，嗯，但我不认为，比如每件事都需要改变世界。你知道，我的意思是，老实说，人们做的许多事情都很有用，而且，我的意思是，我认为真正应该做的就像是一种有用性优化，比如只要问，我正在做的事情是否已经尽可能有用？你说的是一个组织的目标，还是泛指目标？是的。而且，嗯，你知道，即使某件事没有改变世界，如果它正让人们的生活变得更好，我认为那，那就很棒。而且，呃，你知道，即便某件事只是让所有人的生活稍微好了一点，但涉及的人数很多，那么曲线下面积当然就，就相当不错。嗯，那是数学第一性原理吗

点、效用和数量，是的，好吧，比如我的意思是，可以这样说，比如，某个应用真的让人们的生活变得更好了吗？但是，如果它影响了很多人，呃，即使影响很小，那么，是的，那种面积也很好。有意思。那么我们稍微换个话题，因为这里是未来节，嗯，展望未来，对吧，我们从30年前开始，但未来一直在加速，所以或许让我们看看20年后的未来，看看一次同等程度的飞跃；可以说，未来5年或许就相当于过去30年，但我们就说20年吧。那么到2035年，就你所能判断，未来会是什么样子？你会，呃，20，20年？是的，2035年。是的，20年。嗯，预测未来总是非常棘手。嗯，嗯，我的意思是，其中有些事情

相当明显，比如计算能力将变得疯狂，嗯，真正巨大的变化是计算能力的成、成本。嗯，与其说是那种电路密度，那种 M 定律的东西，不如说，如果你看，比如每条指令实际需要多少，嗯，你知道，美元，嗯，而、而那是 Dr，我的意思是，那、那个、那个成本正在呈指数下降。我，你想想这件事，比如制造一台计算机，你只是在重新排列硅和铜，你知道，也就是在一块小芯片上。而一旦开发和芯片工厂的资本成本付清，呃，实，我的意思是，一块芯片的边际成本非常、非常低。嗯，所以我认为我们会看到大规模并行计算机，嗯，以及，以及计算能力和存储空间变得，你知道，像

真的想要多少就有多少。嗯。而且很有意思，我也从这里开始，比如如果我，我不知道还能预测什么，但作为一项基础性的事情，这似乎是最稳妥的起始，你知道，前提。但随后，这会在遗传学和你提到的 AI、自动驾驶、太空相关议题等领域产生怎样的连锁影响？我的意思是，就是无处不在的计算。嗯，我认为，我认为20年后的 AI 会极其先进。嗯，第一个 W up it 是什么时候，比如它似乎正在加速，而在存在指数增长时，预测事物的棘手之处在于，指数曲线近看像是，看起来是线性的。没错。嗯，而且，而且实际上它不是线性的。所以，呃，据我

能看到。嗯，而你会为此，你会把自动驾驶和点式 AI，比如 Siri 那样的功能，作为你的指引吗？嗯，我曾经和某个人有过某种争论，讨论 AI 是否正在加速，而，比如他说，好吧，Y AI 是什么，你知道，如果，如果它正在加速，嗯，X AI 上有 T，但 y 轴是什么？嗯，我想了想，我认为你可以有一条递归的 y 轴，这样，呃，如果，如果，如果在任何时间点，你对 AI 的预测都在提前或推迟，嗯，那实际上将有助于判断它是否在加速，无论那个访问是什么。所以你或许只需要观察递归访问，比如，如果，如果在任何给定年份，如果你，如果你发现你的预测正，正，嗯，变得更远，或正在

变得更远，或者越来越近，那，那实际上，你知道，是思考加速度的一种方式，因为，比如，因为否则的话，AI 的，的定性或定量衡量标准是什么？嗯，就像说，如果某项特定技术总是在未来20年。是的，如果它总是在未来20年，那就更像是对数式的。嗯，那么 AI 看起来是你所知道的加速最快的事物之一吗？是的。嗯，而且我，我肯定能从自动驾驶上看到这一点，嗯，你知道，3年前我认为它还要10年，然后2年前我认为还要5年，现在我认为还要3年，或者不到3年。哇。所以当你说“还要”时，是指，比如，比如，比如发布到市场、可供消费者采用吗？因为与之相对的是

原型开发。不，我的意思是，比如，比如技术能够运行；至于监管机构何时会批准它，那算是另一个问题。是的，是的，是的，是的。嗯，但，但是，比如我，比如在这方面，技术能够运行，而且技术是作为一种通用解决方案运行。因此，比如自动驾驶，基本上可以在任何地方运行。所以对于点状事项而言，它可能会更早，只限高速公路，或者，我的意思是，只限高速公路的版本，我们已经在 Tesla 进行公开测试了。所以，嗯，希望我们能在未来几周内向所有配备 Autopilot 硬件的汽车发布，而这包括大约过去12个月内制造的所有汽车。哇，哇。所以它，这似乎是那种一旦你体验过，其必然性就会变得更加明显的事，有点像我第一次坐

进电动车时，事情就是如此清楚，自动驾驶车辆也是如此。嗯，你认为这将有助于说服公众舆论吗？而且，比如，比如，监管问题很有意思，因为随着技术持续加速，人性并不会加速，对变化的接受也是如此。我只是不确定，比如当我们展望未来时，是否应该假设，无论像 mors 定律这样的东西加速得多快，总会有人性和习惯这种抗衡力量，嗯。是的，我的意思是，是的，我认为，是的，总会有那种，嗯，总会有人性，嗯，而且很难预测，我认为那，那，那将会如何，它将如何影响事物。嗯，但，嗯，我，我不确定自己是否完全回答了你的问题

所以，关于我认为20，请。嗯，所以，所以肯定你是计算，嗯，AI 将超越，呃，像公众今天所理解的任何东西。嗯，我认为我们会有，嗯，生产的大多数新车，呃，都是电动的，嗯，而且我们可能会让所生产能源中的绝大多数都变得，呃，可持续。所以我认为，我认为我们正走在，主要是太阳能，在你看来？主要是太阳能，是的。嗯，而且，嗯，所以我认为这些，我认为这些算是一些好事情，比如我认为我们有望走上可持续能源的良好道路。嗯，越早总是越好，但我认为到2035年，我认为我们将在很大程度上，嗯，比如大部分交通运输、大部分新生产的能源都将是可持续的。嗯，到处都有宽带。到处都有宽带，是的。嗯，火星

殖民地，而且希望，希望 20 年后火星上会有一个小型基地、一座小型城市。对。我听到你说城市了吗？好吧，好吧，镇、村、村落。我的意思是，那很令人兴奋。我的意思是，那可以让人们对未来充满热情。对，我确实，我，我完全同意。我，我认为，成为“多 Fant 物种”并走出去探索群星的想法，是那些真正鼓舞人心、令人兴奋的事情之一。我的意思是，就像阿波罗计划曾给全世界每个人带来难以置信的鼓舞一样，甚至那些……我的意思是，只有极少数人去了那里，但我的意思是，我们所有人都间接地去了那里。而且，而且我认为，如果我们拥有火星基地，情况也是如此。嗯，而且非常重要的是，我们在未来要拥有令人兴奋、鼓舞人心的事物，因为否则

为什么早上要起床，你知道，如果只不过是一个又一个令人难过的问题，那就像是，生活，生活不值得过。除了成为多行星物种之外，还有没有其他让你对未来非常兴奋的事情？也许 AI，呃，UL 既会吓到你，也会让你兴奋，嗯，自动驾驶车辆。还有没有其他你认为展望未来 20 年、会让你觉得这就是我真正兴奋之处的支柱？嗯，我是说，当然，当然是火星和可持续交通，像那些项目，我认为确实是，可持续能源，那些是我认为真的很酷的事情。嗯，还有，呃，我是说到让人兴奋的方面，我是说，就像，呃，我，我认为我们可能会开始看到更多真正的赛博格活动，比如人脑互联，比如，比如

脑机接口。好的。嗯，就像在那些纯粹可悲的 AI 旁边。是的，我想是的，这是我们能够建立联系的唯一方式，我想，你知道，还能进行对话。而且现在有很不可思议的事情正在发生，比如这个，嗯，他们已经弄清楚了如何在大鼠和猴子身上制造人工海马体，嗯，嗯，现在他们正在考虑，呃，用它来解决严重癫痫，呃，大约一半的严重癫痫病例起源于 H，嗯，海马体，而，呃，通过拥有一种人工增强的海，海马体，他们实际上可以解决，嗯，严重癫痫病例。哇，太不可思议了。所以这就像，我就想，哇，而且你可以，你可以在单个

神经元层面，把信息从你的大脑读到芯片中，也可以从芯片写回你的大脑，就在今天。相当令人兴奋。是的，整个生物学领域，以及受生物学启发的事物和信息系统生物学，都让我个人着迷，作为一个，作为一个以计算机科学为导向的人。嗯，在我转到学生提问之前，嗯，我马上就会这么做，还有最后一个故事是我想分享的，是我们一起经历过的，并想问问你的看法。我们当时在得克萨斯州霍桑，蚱蜢飞行器，哦，是的，发生了，发生了，我是说，是的，就在我们面前发生了壮观的爆炸，而且正好，我把 SpaceX 董事会带出来观看其中一次垂直起降测试，结果当然偏偏就是那一次爆炸了。我们全都在一个帐篷里，你知道，拿着一杯水，就像，哇。我是说，你能感受到冲击波

然后走着，把那叫作 RUD，它是快速非计划解体。没错，一个 RUD。是的，快速非计划解体。任何把火箭当作爱好或，或以此为职业的人都知道那是什么。每一个组成部件都散落，散落得到处都是。当我们走着时，另一位董事会成员问道，也许是想用一种让人振作起来的方式，引用了比尔·盖茨或其他某个人的话，说，你知道，如果你没有失败，那你就没有在学习，这是对那句话的意译。我记得你的回答，而且我把它作为一句引语记下来了，因为我想把它写在一块牌子上：如果可以选择，我更愿意从成功中学习。我认为这是一个很棒的回击。所以我想我很好奇，总的来说，你怎么看硅谷的口号：快速失败，经常失败

或者像埃丝特·戴森说的，总是犯新的错误，仿佛失败是学习的熔炉。我很好奇，你对于那一点以及你当时在那里可能脱口而出的那句话，是否还有其他想法。我是说，有，有很多种，我是说，我觉得这里好像有某种熵方面的基础，就像失败的方式比成功的方式多得多，所以你，我是说，你必须去探索。我是说，特别是对于火箭来说，那东西大概有 1000 种失败方式，而能成功的方式大概只有 1 种。所以，呃，你可能会，你可能会经历很多次火箭失败，来探索它可能失败的所有方式。嗯，所以，但我确实认为硅谷的一大优点是，失败并不是一种，并不是很大的污名。所以就像，如果你，如果你非常努力地尝试，而它

没有成功，算，呃，那也没关系，就像你可以，嗯，从中学习，然后你知道，再创办一家公司，这没什么大不了的。我认为那，那确实是硅谷最了不起的事情之一。有意思。我也很好奇，你是否也，在这个，嗯，在我看来，在系统设计方面，你可以容纳子组件很可能出现的故障，而假设说 Falcon 9 或 Falcon 9 Heavy 的优雅之处，在很大程度上是这种火箭应如何建造的愿景的最终化身，也就是说，嘿，部件会失效之类的，但系统可以这样取得成功。我很好奇，围绕这一点是否还有其他想法，如何，如何容纳预期中的故障，然后也许还可以从，比方说管理方面，有没有一些方式让你

激励团队，无论是在失败发生前，提前指导他们说，嘿，这会发生，还是在失败之后，让他们振作起来解决问题，并，并在可能是黑暗时期的时候继续前进。比如说，当你提到像发射失败，呃，呃，你知道，在发射台上爆炸，你知道，所有这些，它非常直观，当你在火箭行业遭遇挫折时，那是一场公开的场面。我很好奇你如何管理失败这件事。呃，我是说，我觉得这，这真的相当，相当痛苦和艰难，老实说，嗯，而且那感觉糟透了。嗯，呃，但是，呃，是的，我是说，公司某种程度上指望着，你知道，我去，你知道，鼓舞他们，所以我会这么做。嗯，但老实说，我感觉特别糟糕，就像肚子上挨了一拳。是的，是的。嗯，记得那

几乎就像一个时刻，像悲伤的几个阶段。我记得在得克萨斯时，先是有点像，某种否认，然后到了晚餐时才算真正击中你，就像，哦，我的天，刚才到底发生了什么。是的，我是说，这只是，我是说，尤其是火箭，它，它就是一种真的，像，火箭，火箭，太空很难，而火箭不幸地往往会失败。嗯，即使有很多真正聪明的人极其努力地工作，尽量降低失败概率，它仍然，仍然存在，而且它，呃，嗯，而且它，你知道，它相当显著。嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，人们问过我，比如，嗯，为什么，为什么火箭，你知道，尤其困难？嗯，而，而且，你知道，其中一部分原因是，一切都必须在第一次就正常工作。就像，没有，没有，你不能召回，不能打补丁

它。它只有，就像，9 分钟进入轨道，否则就结束了。嗯，而且，呃，然后你永远，你不能，你永远无法在火箭实际将要经历的环境中对它进行完整测试。你无法在地球表面完全重现某种在真空中高速移动的东西，就像你只能真正地在太空中重现它。所以这是模拟工具的局限，对我来说，这是当今模拟工具的局限吗，还是说那绝对是，如果，如果模拟与现实之间存在任何误差，而总会存在某种程度的误差，嗯，那么，那就可能导致失败。是的。嗯，所以这真的，真的很棘手。这就像，嗯，用软件类比的话，就好比你必须编写一大堆软件模块

嗯，而且你永远不能把它们放在一起运行，嗯，而且不能在目标计算机上运行它们。就像，就像你测试它们时，必须逐个进行测试，而且不能在它们将要运行的实际计算机上测试。明白了。然后你把它们，把所有模块放在一起，第一次在一台完全不同或非常不同的计算机上运行，而且它必须在没有错误的情况下运行。这很困难。软件与火箭设计之间的类比很深，模块化复用，我是说，其中有许多这样的类比。对于那些不熟悉这件事的人来说，并不是说这是一位受过传统训练的航空航天工程师来到这里，而，而事实上是在彻底改变这个行业。我认为，是把一种计算机科学视角应用到一个又一个行业，以及，比如，会如何，会如何，你

知道，计算机科学家或物理学家会如何处理这个问题，而得出的解决方案往往与行业中的现有企业非常不同。这里面有一种特定的优雅，嗯，至少从像我这样的外部，外部观察者看来。嗯，如果可以的话，让我转到一些学生提问，这些问题会转向一个完全不同的方向。嗯，第 1 个问题来自 NIU，在，呃，一门建筑设计 C 学期课程中。所以这会让我们暂时更多地切换到大脑的另一侧。你在设计中看重什么？相关地，如果你愿意回答，你在艺术中看重什么？设计可能更直接相关，但那是他提问的出发点。当然。嗯，我是说，我，我认为有，嗯，我是说，你，你想创造出美的东西。我是说，你想触发任何，无论你大脑中根本性的

审美算法是什么。就像，就像在你的大脑里，你有，我认为，有一些内在的，呃，代表美的元素，嗯，而且，而且它们会在你的，在你的心智中触发欣赏美的情感。嗯，我认为这些，这些实际上在人与人之间相对一致。我是说，不，不完全一致，嗯，有些人喜欢，不是每个人都喜欢同样的东西，但其中有，有很多共通之处。嗯，而且，而且，而且，而且，是的，而且那里，那里，但，但我认为，把审美设计与功能结合，结合起来很重要。比如，如果你说，Model S 或 Model X 真正困难的地方是什么，嗯，就是把美学与，嗯，实用性结合起来。所以，要平衡两者。嗯，你可以让一辆车看起来

非常好，通过赋予它某种，嗯，特定的比例，比如让它有点低矮、纤薄，而且，而且，而且，嗯，呃，但如果你，呃，如果你这么做，实用性就会受到显著影响，嗯，所以，比方说，Model S 面临的巨大挑战是设法弄清楚，我们怎样才能容纳 5 个成年人加 2 个孩子，因为我想要 7 座的，它看起来像龙飞船，而且每辆 Tesla 都有容纳 7 个、7 个、5 个孩子的空间，我能看出这可能很重要，N 周界，我当然不认为我们应该把全家人都带上航天器，嗯，但，但是，呃，但就像，S 面临的巨大挑战是要打造一辆实用性高而且外观好看的汽车，嗯，X 也是如此，嗯，所以，就像，让跑车看起来好看相对容易，嗯，但

要让一辆轿车看起来好看，或者让一辆 SUV 看起来好看，是是相当困难的，嗯，而且嗯，我认为另一个原则是，你会想让它给人的感觉是内部比从外面看起来更大，嗯，而这也是一件非常难做到的事，嗯，然后要真正注意那些小细节，那些设计、形状和形态、功能方面的细微差别，还有嗯，你知道，就是它在不同光线下呈现出的样子，而当某个小地方不对劲时，你是怎么感受到的，它它把我逼疯了，是的，嗯，我是说，这，而且问题是，比如，如果你你可以训练自己去去注意微小的细节，我认为几乎任何人都能做到，嗯，尽管它它它在很大程度上是一把双刃剑，因为那样一来，你你就会看到所有的小细节，嗯

然后那些小事会把你逼疯，嗯，所以，但比如大多数人不会，他们不会有意识地看到那些小细节，但他们他们确实会下意识地看到它们，比如你你你有点像是，你的大脑接收了一个整体的结果，你知道，一个整体印象，而而你你知道某样东西是否吸引人，即使你可能无法准确指出原因，嗯，而它是是这些许多小细节的总和，所以我们大多数人的体验是，哦，我觉得那很丑，或者我觉得那很美，或者像，哇，那真优雅，但无法把它拆解开来，你顺带提到过类似这样的事，说你其实可以训练自己做到这一点，是的，你可以训练自己，我认为你可以让自己去注意去注意为什么，嗯，你实际上

把潜意识中的觉察带入有意识的觉察中。我希望我能做到，你是怎么做到的？就是就是非常仔细地注意，几乎像是对这个物体进行冥想，并试着找出细节，比如我为什么不喜欢这个，是这样吗？是的，就是仔细看，认真看。嗯，而且你知道，对任何一个特定物体来说，是它，是几何结构，是呃，嗯，我听到有人低声说史蒂夫·乔布斯，我也想到了这一点。我曾短暂地和他共事过，而我我只能把它体验为一种对不完美的本能性焦躁，还有像，那就是错的，像那必须修好。我我我必须把它关掉，否则就，我无法过日子，它就是，是的，它是，是的，是你周围的世界，甚至在，是的，是的，如果你，因为总有，总有

某个地方一直有问题，所以，嗯，你真的必须把它关掉，否则，你知道，天啊，你就会得到那个，那个有问题之事的心理清单，简直会把你逼疯。我只希望有一种办法，可以直接把它记录下来，让其他所有人去修，因为就像这份不断更新的清单，对吧？哦我的天，嗯，所以，呃，让我转到另一个问题。我我觉得刚才那个问题很有意思，我我完全不知道它会走向哪里，所以我真的很感谢那个问题，尼克，谢谢你。嗯，让我们看看这些问题中的哪一个，有一些问题组合在一起，让我把两个都提出来，你可以选一个你更喜欢的，因为它们都与殖民火星有关。其中一个来自 Henning rodo，一位土木与环境工程博士候选人

他只是问，埃隆，鉴于你计划把把100万名殖民者送上火星，为了支持一个稳固而繁荣的地表殖民地，需要开发哪些迫切的未来技术？所以我猜是用于生存的技术。然后，可能与之相关的一个问题来自斯坦福太空倡议的学生：你设想人类将如何治理一个独立的星球？我不确定你是否已经必须思考过这个问题。稍微想过一点这些事情。我的意思是，显然，第一个挑战就是究竟如何到达那里，而那就像是，你知道，所以 SpaceX 正极其努力地研究究竟如何把大量人员和货物送上火星，嗯，而且我想，你知道，我们已经有了某种东西，我认为它在某种基础物理学和经济学

层面上是可行的，所以这就像是一个弄清详细设计的问题，嗯，我们正在做这件事。我们每周只在这上面花大约半小时，因为我们有近 10 项紧迫的优先事项，但我对它逐渐成形的样子有点兴奋，嗯，所以所以，我认为只要把这个运输问题解决，就会为火星上的人们开启数量极其庞大的机会，你知道，就像，你知道，有了通往加利福尼亚的联合太平洋铁路，嗯，然后，你知道，看看后来产生了什么，当其他公司的整个生态系统弄清楚了，比如先到达那里，然后你就会得到，然后企业家的机会就极其庞大，嗯，其范围涵盖一切，从，你知道，你能想象到的一切，比如开办第，你知道

比如火星上的第一家意大利餐厅之类的，你知道，就像总得有人去做，而且那会挺酷的，嗯，你知道，比如一家炼铁，炼铁厂，你知道，比如建立，你知道，像整个工业基础，嗯，而且嗯，然后可能会有一些火星独有的东西，嗯，但但是我们我们必须，我们必须把那个，你知道，实际上就是那条联合太平洋铁路建到那里，才能把企业家送到那里，并并并随后为他们创造一个适合去创办，呃，公司的环境，嗯，所以那那就是，嗯，所以所以一旦你到了那里，我认为会有很多令人兴奋的事情可以做，嗯，而而且一开始，你知道，人们会住在某种玻璃穹顶里，呃，但但是随着时间推移，它

会为火星 ter，并让它变得像地球，嗯，而且呃，所以所以我认为会有很多极其令人兴奋、又很难预测的事情，就像他们在修建 in Pacific 时一样，他们，那会很难，没有人会预测到硅谷和好莱坞，对吧？你知道，那会像是，还有总体上的城市化。是的，是的。嗯，加利福尼亚会成为全国最 popul 的州，比如对他们来说，这听起来很疯狂。黄金被发现了，对吧？是的。嗯，所以，而且所以，是的，我认为，比如，这确实是 SpaceX 或者，你知道，也许其他组织的共同责任，去弄清楚如何到达那里，否则其他一切都无关紧要，对吧？呃，然后一旦你到了那里，就会有很多某种，是的，很很多事情可以做，嗯，从

治理的角度来看，嗯，我的意思是，显然，最终火星的治理将由火星人决定，但这个，嗯，很酷，我们现在有称呼他的名字了，你去那里之后就会成为火星人，嗯，但但是我我认为，如果你说，比如，你会如何实施民主 2.

0，你知道，或者像某种新的新版本，我想我们大概会更多地实行直接民主，而不是代议制民主，嗯，而且你知道，当美国成立时，确实，当时不可能实行直接民主，比如比如，即使寄一封信也要几周，嗯，所以人们不可能就议题直接投票，你必须有代表。有意思。所以我认为，嗯，我认为可能会更多地实行直接民主，而这是关于通信的延迟，fromation 延迟，以及单纯的通信错误和通信延迟，呃，当你寄信要花几周才能送到任何地方时，呃，这会会让治理几乎不可能实现，我认为如果如果它不是一种代议制

民主的话。你有很多人甚至不会读或或写，你知道，所以，嗯，这太有意思了。我只是在想，如果如果你要在治理方面从一张白纸重新开始，你认为是否可以设想出一个框架，把未来的其他 sentin 存在也包括在内，意思是 AI 和其他可能会吵着要求自身权利的存在，嗯，是的，这很难预测，但我可以说，我认为我们大概会会以一种更直接的民主为目标，嗯，然后，而且我和拉里·佩奇谈过这个，他有一个，比如，一个很好的建议，比如我们应该限制一部法律中的字数，嗯，因为比如我们有这些类似长达1000页的法律获得通过，而比如根本没人读过它们。相当于推特式的简约。是的，比如我不

知道，千字的字数限制之类的，就像如果你不能，如果你不能用 th 个词写出这项法律，那它可能就不该存在，嗯，嗯，而且你知道，我们就是不该有一项通过的法律，篇幅像《指环王》那么长，没错，而且，而且国会里确实没有一个人读过整部法律，就像税法一样，根本理不清。是的，没错。所以，所以有这一点，然后我觉得，嗯，法律也有无限的寿命，除非给它们设定某种，你知道，日落期限，所以给法律设定一个日落期限可能会很好，比如，如果它不，如果它不够好、不值得续期，那么它，那么它就失效，嗯，而且，呃，也许在这方面加入某种滞后效应，让废除一项法律更容易

而不是制定一项法律，嗯，你完全可以想象，因为随着时间推移，法律体系只会变得越来越大、越来越大、越来越大，所以，就像，你要怎样避免这种情况，嗯，而且，而且法律还伴随着惯性，所以也许，你知道，制定一项法律需要 60% 的支持，但废除一项法律只需要 40%，嗯。多么有趣，多么迷人。是的，类似这样。宪政民主的这些，这些，这些规则有着如此深远的影响，而拥有一个，一个新的试验场会非常棒，嗯。你刚才所说的话里蕴含着一点，我想在转向也许是最后一个问题时强调一下，呃，我刚才顺带听到，你知道，我想你说的是每周花大约半小时思考其中一些事情，如果我没听错的话，而且

嗯，我认为这是一件值得，值得，值得深思的事情，就是，你知道，他正在如此多的领域改变世界，而我见到的创业者中没有多少人能做到这一点，我自己也包括在内，我们会迷恋未来火星基地、火星地球化，以及其中可能需要成为现实的方方面面的所有可能性，而我发现自己经常被那些与今天关系稍弱的未来问题分散注意力。你们刚才听到的是，我们必须先解决铁路问题，比如，让我把 90%、95% 的精力投入其中，不要被之后才需要处理的所有其他有趣问题分散注意力。我记得几年前，也许是 3 年或 4 年前，我试图让你和克雷格·文特尔一起集思广益，讨论，你知道，从

火星采样返回，并把一台基因测序仪送到那里，帮助了解那里可能存在的生命，等等。我对此印象非常深刻，当时的回答是，这是一个非常有趣的话题，但在它与我相关之前，我得先让这些火箭运行起来，让我埋头专注于这里重要的事情。而这种确定优先次序的能力，呃，在通往宏大愿景的垫脚石上，这是，这是一个有趣的二分法，不只是纯粹的愿景家，把精力分散在许多事情上。显然，它是对我们前进方向的清晰认识，将其一路反推回当下，并确保我们采取正确的步骤，以免笨拙地迈向未来，如果可以这么说的话。我觉得，我希望我们所有人在试图实施变革时都能做到这一点，嗯。那么如果可以的话，让我转向最后一个

这个问题可能很宽泛，也可能不宽泛，就是这里有很多来自世界各地的人，我想每个听到你的故事的人，呃，你知道，一个来自南非的移民，AFC，经由加拿大来到美国，进入 4 个或 5 个不同的行业，取得了很大的一个李子和成功，嗯，这很鼓舞人心，呃，但不仅仅是你取得了商业成功或技术成功，而是你确实在这些领域让世界变得更好，嗯，所以我想，也许再以这个作为结束问题，从现在展望未来，你认为亟待解决的最大问题大概是什么，这事实上可能需要你暂时摘下那层过滤器，看看世界上那些已经坏掉的事物，以及如果

如果在座的每个人都能在自己热爱的领域成为变革推动者，你今天希望催化什么，如果你能说，各位，去解决这个棘手的大问题，并弄清楚它为什么坏掉了，嗯，我，你知道，我会说，我不认为每个人都需要去，你知道，尝试解决某个非常非常重大的、改变世界的问题，我是说，我认为，比如说，如果我真的思考，比如说，我们应该只想一想，我们正在做的事情是否有用，嗯哼，嗯，对世界来说，比如说，如果你在做有用的事情，那就很好，想象一下，它就像动物，有些事情更有用，当然，嗯，当然，但但也许你个人的 P，比如说，我只是认为，某种有用性优化是，是，比如说，那是一件非常好的事情，嗯，你知道，如果你，如果你做了某件

对你的人类同胞有用，那你就是做了一件非常好的事，嗯，而且，呃，人们应该为做了这件事感到自豪。嗯，你知道，它不一定非得是某种将要改变世界的事情。我的意思是，有时世界只需要继续沿着某个特定方向前进，帮助世界。嗯，是的，人们可能正朝着正确的方向前进，而且我的意思是，从很多方面来说，世界正处于——我们正处于非常好的状态。如果你看看，比如暴力犯罪，嗯，你知道，嗯，按世界人均计算，它处于类似历史最低水平。嗯，呃，我们实际上相当繁荣，呃，呃，而且你知道，与历史相比，嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，我认为就当今世界的状况而言，有很多事情值得欣慰。获取信息

的能力令人难以置信。我的意思是，呃，任何拥有一台大约价值100美元设备的人都可以获取基本上全世界的所有信息，这是一件不可思议的事。嗯，而且，嗯，是的，所以我，我真的，我只是认为，最应该尝试做的事情就是，比如说，嘿，有什么是我能做、而且会真正对世界有用的事，呃，然后就去做。你知道，这很棒。好的，太精彩了，非常感谢你今天与我们同在，以及 Future Fest 和 forun 你们的[掌声]未来。那么，非常简短地，呃，我谨代表所有与 STVP 有关的教职员工，呃，我们想感谢 Hennessy 校长，呃，工程学院以及我们所属的管理科学与工程系，呃，Matthew tw 的 Stanford Arts，还有 Bing 这里非常出色的工作人员，他们提供了极大帮助

今天上午帮助了我们。呃，当然还要感谢 DFJ 对 Futurefest 令人难以置信的赞助，以及你们长期以来对 STVP 和我们为斯坦福学生创造创业教育机会这一愿望的持续支持。当然，我们致以最诚挚的谢意，请和我一起再次感谢埃隆·马斯克和 Steve jinson。[音乐] [掌声]

[Music] good morning Stanford I'll tell you seeing so many students up this early in the morning is really a great experience for the president of the university and I'm so delighted you're able to join us here and I can tell you're going to be in for a fascinating discussion this morning if you think about our University and what makes it unique it is that bold entrepreneurial spirit that pioneering spirit that Jane and Leland brought to us when they marched across the country to come to the West Coast and help found this University today we remain committed to pursuing opportunities that will change the world to using our knowledge in important ways to work on the grand challenges we face but that entrepreneurial spirit is about more than just launching

the next startup it's also about training and educating people who will go out and make our world better and those Innovations come in all war Walks from the medical care we do and new ways of dealing with health problems to Energy Efficiency to robotics to Art to everything we do but every Innovation begins with an idea and every idea began with somebody who imagined it and that's what today is about the Stanford technology Venture program's future Fest is an opportunity to examine and celebrate the impact of breakthroughs and pioneering Technologies on our world and I'm delighted you could all join us this morning this is organized by stvp in collaboration with Stanford Arts the future Fest will be the place where discussions about futuristic Technologies

occur and today we'll hear from two far thinkinking individuals Alon musk and Steve jersson Steve is a Stanford Alum and a partner at Draper Fisher jinson he was recently hail in the New York Times as a space investor and Rocket maker his firm has invested both in SpaceX and a satellite company Planet Labs Steve is a Stanford alumnist three times over and he also has the important characteristic that he was once my adviser despite that disadvantage he completed his bachelor's degree in electrical engineering in two and a half years was the Henry Ford scholar went on to earn his Ms and despite my attempts to convince him to pursue a PhD went off and got his MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business where he was an RJ Miller scholar he's recognized

widely for being forward-thinking the San Francisco Chronicle and examiner named him as one of the 10 people expected to have the greatest impact on the bay area in the early part of the 21st century now Alon musk I think is a name known to everybody who thinks about the future he is a Serial entrepreneur inventor engineer and investor he was born in South Africa attended Queens University in Canada before moving to the US where he earned his undergraduate degrees in economics and physics from the University of Pennsylvania he arrived at Stanford to pursue his PhD in physics but left after two days I said what was wrong along was the food the water the weather no he left to launch his first startup zip 2 a successful internet-based City gu and then he

went on to launch PayPal he founded his third company SpaceX in 2002 and six years later NASA awarded him a contract for cargo transport to the International Space Station he was an early investor in Tesla Moda and now leads the company as its CEO and product architect but Alon dreams big as he told CNN a few years ago we should not be afraid of doing something just because some amount of tragedy is likely to occur if our forefathers had taken that approach the United States wouldn't exist Amen to that I think when you see the kind of work that Alan's doing and I still remember my first trip down to Los Angeles to visit SpaceX and to see the first Tesla prototype before came out I realized he was going to change the world this will be a wonderful exchange

after stepen Alan's discussion Matt Harvey executive director of stvp will close the program but now please join me in giving a warm Stanford welcome to Alon musk and Steve jersson [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] thank you president Hennessy and uh this is a daunting venue I feel like we should sing or something dance perhaps wow okay so uh future Fest uh today is all about the future and uh I can't imagine a better person to speak with about that than Elon Musk he is forging the future as you all know across multiple Industries repeatedly in the most spectacular way in a way that others have failed before him and uh perhaps unprecedented in history so I'm a big Fanboy future Fest originally I think bounced around and why this month because this

is a special month for future Fest is that uh for those of you old enough and it looks like maybe five or six of you in the audience to have been around when Back to the Future the movie came out they had this vision of the future in the second edition of that Series where they fast forwarded in a Time Warp to the Future and it was October 2015 and uh they had flying cars and hoverboards and Biometrics and video calls and what looked like Google Glass a lot of the times and a lot of other stuff that was completely cockamamy but um some of those dreams were true some were not and as a framework for future Fest we can think to the past and our dreams that did or didn't come true I think that's what we'll start and then move to the Future we're sitting here

today what do we think the future may Bode so turn Elon maybe as a as as a starting point as you think back to your high school days 30 years ago when we were both there and dreaming of that future what about today is or isn't in accordance to what you thought back then I mean where where have your dreams the future the Bold Visions met or not met reality today I think the the most remarkable thing that we we do have today is the the internet um and access to all the world's information from anywhere so that that's having a superc computer in your pocket is I think something people wouldn't have predicted um you know in Back to the Future yeah um so that that's the that's the biggest thing um and uh and probably the the what they would be most surprised

at is that we haven't progressed more in space um so the people would have expected I think to have a space hotel in fact oy Clark 2001 should yeah exactly um thought 2010 was really crazy you know space advancement so it would like be going to Jupiter and that kind of thing so that that's probably like the most surprising thing like particularly if you go back even further if you say in ' 69 when um people first landed on the moon um if You' asked people if You' asked the the public what uh what would the situation be in 2015 I think they would imagine that we're we would have a base on the moon a base on Mars and be you know all over the solar system by now mhm that's probably V what happened I mean is there any pattern you can sense for where our dreams

and science fiction realities Drift from reality and where they are reality is there is there some reason you think like as you because because we have dreams today of where that you know that we're going to have these Mars colonies in the near future and uh yeah well unless something jumps to mind let me let me I have a bunch of questions by the way from the audience as well here I want to I want to move to something a little more current as we move forward in time 20 years ago when we first met you were starting your first internet company of two the one before PayPal U zip 2 and I know that in your youth you envisioned a variety of industries that needed to change um when you were pursuing your first one did you imagine you would get to the next one

and the next one no I mean when I was in college I just thought well what are the things that are most lik to affect the future of humanity just in you know at a macro level and um it just seemed like it would be like the internet and sustainable energy uh making like multiplanetary um and then genetics and Ai and I thought the first three if you worked on those there were like almost certainly going to be good and then the the last two a little more dodgy in terms of the net benefit yeah for the double-edged sword and you're not sure which Edge is the worse interesting so it would it seems like begging the question are genetics and AI the ones that are right for students today to be thinking about as they look I mean they are yeah um my my cousin I a

younger cousin who's just finishing up um uh sort of physics and computer science degree uh actually Berkeley um we we know and um and he's uh he says everyone there is in the computer science department is working on AI so I mean I think we're going to see some crazy breakthroughs in the next few years on that front yeah I want to come back to that later as we look more to your vision of the future as you as you think back though to your younger self but you know many of the people in the audience are themselves college students and either under atrad programs and are thinking about the world they're entering and I'm curious this may be an odd question but one that I find fascinating as you think here today back to your younger self is there any advice

you wish you could have given your younger self in with hindsight given what you know now well I mean I give like a lot of advice I yeah dating a whole bunch of things like that yeah I got got you but just in terms of how to how to think about a life trajectory perhaps or um how to pursue your passions I mean I I'm reasonably happy with how things turned out um so it's like touche not terrible um yeah that's a good point uh I I think if there's anything um I'll let you if something jumps to mind let me know but let me uh I mean apart from the obvious like just telling telling my younger self exactly how the future will unfold which is right but but that that you know wouldn't be that that that's not exactly advising more has been encapsulated into non

time warping wisdom yeah yeah exactly like wisdom um um I mean I mean there there there's a lot of things I mean it's sort of I mean certainly um yeah I mean uh you know listen listen more to critical feedback um know uh I mean like a lot of things I learned in college actually were pretty helpful I mean I think the physics approach to thinking is very good like the first principles approach um and you applied that broadly yeah appli applying the first principles approach to thinking um is I think a good way to figure out a counterintuitive um situations um and um you know so thought that was that was really a helpful thing to learn um that's good yeah I mean yeah right go ah no no feel free to jump in because I don't know how I'd answer that question

I mean other yeah what would you do what would you tell your in yourself it'll be all right you weren't as dorky as you think advice like that nothing really too actionable don't worry about it well just don't be so insecure about everything you're insecure about yeah we'll probably be advice to myself but uh but let's move on this more I'm not used to thinking about me um so you I I may be roughly overgeneralizing here but it seems to me that there's some often a trigger problem that generates in your mind a great solution for when you come up with new company so for example when trying to negotiate with the Russians for launch capacity the the AHA that we should just build a better rocket to solve this problem comes forth or when you uh deal with the

commute on the 405 or whatever in La it's like my God what is wrong with mass transit and and perhaps hyperloop and then you know with with uh with a variety of ideas there seems to be some trigger something that's broken in the world that and you have an idea of how to fix it and I guess what I'm curious about is not how you've picked the areas of interest and the solutions but how have you decided what not to per fix and other words there's many things that need fixing in the world and students here probably could think of a long list many of which you could probably imagine solutions to using the physics first principal approach but has there been any framework or idea you've used to filter out what you don't do what you don't pursue um yeah I mean

well if if sort follow the what I did initially was um you know well you go back to like college times I was working on um energy storage Technologies for electric vehicles um and that's what I was going to pursue at Stanford actually was work on um like Advanced capacitors and batteries to improve uh the energy density for electric vehicles um and then the internet was kind of happening it was clear like the internet was happening like back in like ' 9495 and uh and I wasn't sure if what I worked on in the PHD would actually be useful so I was like I was really concerned that if I timing or what was your intuition meaning I think like it could be academically useful but not practically useful um like I think it could result in a PhD and adding some Leaf

to the tree of knowledge um but then then discovering that well it's not really going to going to matter like that's you know is it is it going to be a a good enough thing to actually be used in an electric vehicle I wasn't sure I mean so there was like I was uncertain as to whether success was one of the possible outcomes like I thought maybe it was but I wasn't sure and and then I thought well if I watch the internet get built while I'm doing this um that that that would be really frustrating there's a sense of that eminent timing that like that was the time for the internet and maybe the other stuff could wait or be on the back back burner of your mind was it always there as like one day I'll get back to that or was it um yeah I thought probably I'd

get back to it and did end up doing that um but yeah I thought sort of the the the internet was was happening like really taking off um although most people weren't aware of it in '95 um and uh and so I figured like electric vehicle Technology Energy stor technology will there will be some sort of natural progression in that and I could come back to it later um but the internet you know was was really that was the moment to to really do something um Al although in '95 it wasn't obvious that you could actually make any money on the internet this was like no Nobody Until Netscape went public I think at the end of 95 um nobody even thought there was like uh you could make a valuable company on the internet wasn't as obvious as it seems now yeah like now

it seems really obvious but back then it was not at all um so it was really from the perspective of it wasn't like oh I want to make a bunch of money it was actually from it's like I want to just be part of fing this thing that I thought it was like like a nervous system it was like previously people had communicated effectively via osmosis and um you know you'd have to like basically physically you know connect with somebody to to really communicate um you like a letter like you send letters like on paper um and with the internet anyone who had a connection anywhere in the world would have access to all the world's information just like sort of a nervous system in a so like so Humanity was effectively becoming a superorganism um and and qualitatively

different than uh what it had been before and so I wanted to be part of that and uh um yeah so but but initially the goal was just to make enough money to pay the rent it wasn't um you know to do anything beyond that interesting and then as many know that much of that capital got ploted back into your next businesses right right EXA exactly so then they and and then the Internet it's also helpful because it's anything to do with software is a low Capital Endeavor so I didn't have any money um I just had a bunch of student debt and um so but but software you can just write like by yourself um and you don't need a lot of atoms like you don't need a lot of tooling and equipment and um so it's not Capital intensive um so the ability to start a company um

if it's software related and it's the first company is much much easier right right and it seems obvious now but of course the easier place to start and then as you gain more of a personal reputation and have more personal Capital as some Mar I know SpaceX was almost was entirely funded by Elon for its first period partially from you know and in an era when others probably wouldn't have funded it right and those are right and actually I mean the precursor to to SpaceX was not the the idea wasn't really to create a company it was um it was to to try to figure out why we hadn't um gone send people to Mars so um so so we went from sub2 to to PayPal and then um and then going from PayPal to sort of the next thing I was sort of thinking well um is there some

way to reignite the dream of Apollo um and I thought well it was maybe a question of like we'd lost the will to explore it um but actually think that that that my original premise was wrong we had not lost the will to explore but people did not think there was a way and if people don't think there's a way then they they just they won't bash their head against the wall continuously they'll you know they'll sort of give up so um but but but in the beginning I thought it was a question of will so so if we can send a small Greenhouse to the surface of Mars and you and you have seeds and uh nutrient gel and you hydrated upon landing and then you'd have this little green house on the surface of Mars and people tend to respond to precedents and superlatives

and this would be the first life on Mars as far as we knew for this that life's ever traveled you have this great shot of green plants on a red background and I thought well that maybe that would get people excited about sending people to Mars so the headlines were clear in your mind once you had success on what that would lead to to catalyze action and and actually the goal was was to get the public excited about that and get um NASA's budget increased so that that was actually the the original goal and um so I went to Russia to try to buy some icbms in 2001 um it's interesting experience a lot of vodka yeah a lot of vodka yeah it's crazy um and uh I couldn't afford the regular Rockets like the Boeing and lock heed Rockets are too expensive and uh still

are yeah still pretty expensive that's true I had to sorry wait may I jump in here for a sec because the anecdote you brought up of wanted to change government policy and Inspire the world to have a Mars program if you will whether it's popular Uprising or or space programs at the government level I think it's a fascinating anecdote because in a sense what you were saying is I as an individual want to start a entity business or otherwise that will catalyze change even beyond the company level or the industry level and I see a parallel in other initiatives you've taken on in that if you look at uh the goal of Tesla under your leadership it is to assure the transition to all vehicles being electric not just the cars that currently are produced by Tesla

and uh with power wall and Solar City arguably the the description is one of ushering in a a wholesale shift to renewable energy many of the solutions required wouldn't be provided by the companies you're starting and so as I as I deal in entrepreneurship as a venture capitalist every day we we see this incredible scope of ambition here that is breathtaking like change the world with Steve Jobs and others talk about in a company maybe shifting an industry but we're talking about shifting like the entire Zeitgeist of the world in a sense and maybe eventually other worlds so my question is do you do you start always in your mind with that as a like I where's the starting point is it okay I see this Arc of a story like like the Mars example or renewable

energy and then do you pull back to where's the best product to un get it unstuck like why isn't this happening and like if I solve that problem then it unlocks value like how does that happen in your mind um sure so um I mean I should say like the when when we started SpaceX and Tesla I I mean I really thought the probability of success was very low I mean it wasn't like I think oh we'll definitely be successful I thought I thought we' be like maybe 10% likely who uh yeah um and and they we came very close to both companies not succeeding in 2008 you know we had the we had three failures of the SpaceX rocket um so we were zero for three um we had the crazy Financial recession like the Great Recession um the Tesla financing round have fallen apart because

like pretty hard to raise money for the startup car company FGM and chry are going bankrupt um like people it's poly for the upside yeah it's that was tricky one um and um you know unfortunately at the end of 2008 the the fourth launch which was that was the last launch we had money for uh worked for SpaceX and um and then we we closed the Tesla financing round as you know uh Christmas Eve 2008 last hour of the last day that it was possible yeah and thanks to you for those who don't know it's the most extraordinary Act of entrepreneurial Zeal and commitment I've ever seen where El un personally saved Tesla in those hours like when no one else would write a check he spoke for it all and that flipped the mentality from Fear to Greed and everyone joined

the bandwagon and and everything changed from you know dividing into the ground to success but you were willing to go like net negative personally of of his entire net worth and it's it's un remarkable story um oh thanks for supporting by the way that was much much appreciated yeah we were happy to fall right behind in line but but it was all him um so I guess on this this aide though of the big picture I'm curious in the way I heard you just now described the greenhouse and the headlines is interesting do the marketing headlines flash through your mind as you introduce new products that are a step to a much grander Vision I'm curious because it seems like it has two purposes like getting employees customers everyone really gung-ho about the vision but

it also makes it larger than life in so many ways well I if you're trying to convince the public to do something you have to say okay how's this going to read um and what message are we going to try to convey um what will people respond to what would I respond to if I was you know sort of an objective member of the public and um so that's that that's really you know if you're trying to change people's minds or get people fired up about something um then you got to think okay what's that message what what's going to get them really excited um I think that's really good advice by the way for all the engineering students here yeah that's I was wi as well I'm I'm curious there's a as an adjunct sometimes to these Grand Visions like making it a multiplanetary

species or shifting us to renewable energy or making all vehicles electric that has a purpose-driven element to it there's a higher calling than the quarterly bottom line in fact there was a Tesla quarterly report I remember famously where the opening the literally opening line was uh while profits are not a priority comma you know never nevertheless exactly and it occurred I was struck by it at first and it did occur to me that it's not like a Mis some sort of misdirected fiduciary question to me it seems like how could you lead an industry transition if your business model was worse than what's already there I meaning like if you weren't more profitable in the long term and a better business why would anyone shift right so it almost seems like with

the right purpose profits follow yeah well if if if you make a if the you know if the output is more valuable than the inputs which is really that's that's that's profit like the output is more valuable than the input um that that that says you you have a use company um so but you know in a high growth scenario you have a lot more inputs for for future outputs so that you have negative cash flow and lack of profitability and which we currently have at Tesla um but in the in the long term of course that has to be that that has to be fixed that there can't be negative cash flow in the long term um and that there needs to be um a net positive output um which is sort of profits in in the long term um but in the short term when this high growth that that that

doesn't it isn't the most sensible thing and then there's also related things like open sourcing patents and acts that to me relate to the purpose let's let the whole Auto industry do this and so I'm curious what do you see from your Vantage Point as the benefits of a Purpose Driven company meaning when you have this thing that every employee and customer knows is the purpose of the company how do you see that flowing through the benefits for the company well I think I think having a propose certainly is going to attract the the very best talent in the world because um if if people can if there's something that's intrinsically enjoyable and the financial rewards are good but then also it's something that's going to genuinely change the world then that's

I think that's a pretty powerful motivator um and um but I don't think like everything needs to change the world you know I mean honestly like there's lots of like useful things that people do and I mean I think really it should be like a usefulness optimization like just say like is what I'm doing as useful as it could be you're talking about the the goal of an organization or goal in general yeah and um you know just even if something isn't changing the world if it's Mak making people's lives better I think that's that's great and uh you know if even if something's like making all people's lives only slightly better but it's a large number of people then kind of like the area under the curve sure is is quite good um is that mathematical first principles

Point utility and number yeah okay like I mean so like one could say like say like is like some app really making people's lives better it's but if it's affecting a lot of people uh even in a small way then yeah the sort of area is good interesting so let's shift gears a little bit since it is future Fest um looking to the Future right we we started 30 years in the past but the future keeps accelerating so let's maybe look 20 years in the future for an equivalent leap arguably five years in the future might be equivalent to the past 30 but let's say 20 so the year 2035 what does the future look like as far as you can tell what would you uh 20 20 years yeah 20 35 yeah 20 years um it's always really tricky to predict the future um um I mean some of it's

pretty obvious like computing power is going to be just crazy um the really the big change is the c cost of computing power um not so much the sort of circuit density sort of the M law thing but if you if you look at say what is the actual um you know dollars per you know per instruction um and and that that is Dr I mean that that that cost is is dropping exponentially I you think about it like like if you're making a computer just you're rearranging silicon and copper you know so if on on a little chip and once the capital cost of the development and the the chip plant is paid for uh the ACT I mean the marginal cost of a chip is very very tiny um so I think we'll see massively parallel computers um and and computing power and storage being you know as

really as much as you want MH um and it's interesting I too start with that like if I I don't know what else to predict but as a foundational thing this seems like the safest starting you know premise but then what does that Ripple through to in fields like genetics and AI which you mentioned autonomous driving space related topics I mean just ubiquitous Computing everywhere um I think I think AI is going to be incredibly sophisticated in 20 years um the when does the first W up it like it seems to be accelerating and the tricky thing about predicting things when there's an exponential is that an exponential looks like looks linear close up that's right um and and but it's actually it's not linear so uh and AI appears to be accelerating um from what I

can see um and do you for that do you look at autonomous driving and point AIS like the Siri like functionality as your guide post um well I had sort of debate about someone like is AI accelerating or not and the like he was saying well what's the Y AIS you know if if it's accelerating um you got T on the X AIS but what's what's the y axis is well thought about that I think you could have a recursive y- axis so that uh if if if at any point in time your your predictions for AI are coming sooner or later um that that actually would help find whether it's U accelerating or not whatever that access was so you might just look at the recursive access like so if if in any given year if you if you find your predictions are are um going further out or coming

further or coming closer in that that actually you know is one way to think of acceleration cuz like cuz otherwise what's the what's the qualitative or quantitive measure of of AI um saying like if a given technology is always 20 years in the future yeah if it's always 20 years in the future it's like more logarithmic um so does AI seem like it's one of the most fastly accelerating things that you're aware of yes um and I I can certainly see that with with autonomous driving where um you know 3 years ago I thought it was 10 years away and then two years ago I thought it was 5 years away now I think it's 3 years away or less than three years away wow so and when you say away like like like release to Market available for Consumer adoption because as opposed

to prototyping no I mean like like the technology works there's a sort of second question as to when Regulators would approve it yeah yeah yeah yeah um but but like i' like with that the technology works and in a technology works as a general solution so like autonomous driving like basically anywhere so it could be sooner for Point things Highway only or I mean Highway only we're already in public beta with this at Tesla so um we'll be hopefully in the next several weeks releasing to to all of the cars that have the autopilot Hardware which is all cars buil in like roughly the last 12 months wow wow and so it this seems like one of those things that once you've experienced it the inevit ility of it becomes more apparent kind of like first time I sat

in an electric vehicle it's just so clear and same with autonomous vehicles um do you think that will help persuade public opinion and like like that the regulatory question is an interesting one because as technology continues to accelerate human nature doesn't and acceptance of change I'm just not sure if there's like as we look out in the future should we assume that no matter how fast something like mors law accelerates there's always the counterbalancing force of human nature and habit that um yeah I mean yeah I think yeah there's always going to be the sort of um there's always going to be human nature um and it's difficult to predict I think what what what that will how that will affect things um but um I I'm not sure if I fully answer your question

so in terms of what what I think 20 please um so for for sure you was Computing um AI that's beyond anything uh like the public appreciat today um I think we'll have um most of the new vehicles being produced uh being electric um and we'll be probably have a super majority of energy being produced being uh sustainable so I think I think we're on headed solar primarily in your mind primarily solar yeah um and um so I think those I think those are sort of some good things like I think we'll be on hopefully on a good path for sustainable energy um sooner is always better but I think by 2035 I think we'll be substantially um like most of Transport most of new energy being produced will be sustainable um Broadband everywhere Broadband everywhere y um Mars

colony and hopefully hopefully a small base on Mars a small City on Mars in 20 years yeah I city did I hear well okay fine Town Village Hamlet I mean that's exciting I mean that could get people fired up about the future yeah I do I I agree exactly I I think that uh the idea of being multi Fant of species and getting out there and exploring the stars is one of those really inspiring exciting things I mean just as Apollo was incredibly inspiring um to everyone around the world and even those I mean only a very tiny number of people went there but I mean vicariously we all went there and and I think that's true of of if we have a Mars base as well um and it's very important that we have things that are exciting and inspiring in the future because otherwise

why get up in the morning you know if it's just about one sort of sad problem after another it's like life life's not worth living are there are there any other things that excites you a lot about the future beyond the multiplanetary species perhaps AI uh UL May Scare You as well as excite you um the autonomous vehicles are there any other planks that you think looking for 20 years like this is what I really get excited about well um I mean for sure for sure Mars and sustainable transport like those items I think are really sustainable energy those are I think really cool things um and uh I mean in terms of getting excited about I mean it's like uh I I think we'll probably start seeing like more like truly cyborg activity like human brain inter like like

brain computer interfaces okay um like there's alongside the AIS that are purely pathetic yeah I think so it's the only way we can relate I think you know and have a conversation and there were amazing things happen like happening these days like this um they've been able to figure out how to do an artificial hippocampus um in in rats and monkeys and um and now they're looking at uh doing that to solve severe epilepsy uh about half of severe epilepsy cases originate in the H um s hippocampus and uh and by having sort of an artificially augmented hi hippocampus they can actually solve um the severe epilepsy cases wow that's amazing so it's like I'm like wow and you can you can write read and write information back to the chip from your brain at the individual

neuron level like today pretty exciting yeah the whole field of biology and things inspired by biology and the information systems biology fascinate me personally as a as a computer science oriented person um before I go to the student questions um which I'm about to do there was one last story I wanted to share that we experienced together and ask your thoughts about it we were in Hawthorne Texas when the grasshopper vehicle oh yeah occur happened I mean yeah spectacular explosion right in front of us and right exact I like I brought the SpaceX board out to take a look at one of the vertical takeoff and Landing tests and of course that's the one that blows off we're all in a tent you know with a glass of water like whoa I mean you feel the repercussions

and then walking call that a rud it's a rapid unscheduled disassembly that's right a rud yes rapid unscheduled disassembly anyone rocketry like a hobbyist or or professionally knows what that one is every component part is just strewn strewn across and as we walked one of the other board members asked maybe in a cheering up kind of method was some quoting Bill Gates or somebody that said you know if you haven't failed and you're not learning that's a paraphrase of the quote and I remember your reply and I have it written as a quote cuz I want to put it on a placard given the options I prefer to learn from success which I think is a great comeback and so I guess I was curious in general what do you think of the silon valley Mantra fail fast fail often

or as Esther Dyson says always make new mistakes as as if failure is The Crucible of learning I'm curious if you had any further thoughts on that and that maybe off the cuff comment you made out there I mean there there are many that sort of I mean I think there sort of there's like some entropic basis for this like there are many more ways to fail than to succeed so you I me you have to explore I mean particular like for a rocket there's like a thousand ways that thing can fail and like one way it can work so uh you could you could have a lot of Rocket failures to explore all the ways in which it could fail um so but I do think that one great thing about silic Valley is that failure is not a not a big stigma so it's like if you if you try hard and it

doesn't work out account uh that's okay like you can um learn from that and you know do another company and it's not a big deal and I think that's that's really one of the great things about Silicon Valley interesting do you also I'm curious if either on the well it seems to me that on the system design side you can accommodate a a likely failure of subcomponents and and so much of the Elegance of let's say a falcon 9 or a falcon 9 heavy as as an ultimate incarnation of this vision of how the rocket should be built to say hey parts will fail thing but here's how the system can succeed and I'm curious if there's any other thoughts along that how to how to accommodate anticipated failure and then also maybe inter like managerially is there ways that you

motivate the team either in advance a failure to to coach them on hey this is going to happen or in the aftermath of failure to get them fired up to solve it and and move forward when it might be dark times and like for example when you Notions like Failure to Launch uh uh you know exploding on the pad you know there's all these it's a very visual it's public spectacle when you have a setback in the rocket industry and I'm curious how you manage round failure uh I mean I think it's it's like quite quite painful and difficult honestly um and it's it feels terrible um uh but uh yeah I mean the the company's sort of looking to you know me to you know rally them and so I do um but I honestly feel super bad like a punch in the gut yeah yeah um remember it's

almost like a time like the stages of grief I remember in Texas is kind like sort of denial and it sort of hits as at dinner it's like oh my God what just happened yeah I mean it's just I mean it it's particularly with rockets it's it's just a really like rockets Rockets space is hard and Rockets tend to fail unfortunately um and even when you've got like a lot of really smart people working super hard to minimize the probability of failure it's still still there and it's uh um and it's you know it's it's quite significant um and um you know people have asked me like well why why a Rockets you know especially hard um and and you know part of it is like everything has to work the the first time like there's there's no you can't do a recall you can't patch

it it's got It's like 9 minutes to orbit or it's over um and uh and then the you never you can't you can never test the rocket completely in the environment that it's actually going to experience you can't fully recreate something that's moving super fast in a vacuum um on the surface of Earth like you can only really recreate that on in space so that a limit of the simulation tools what me is that a limit of the simulation tools today or is that a absolutely the if if there's any error between the simulation and reality and there's always some amount of error um then then that that can result in a failure y um so it's a really really tricky one it's like um in a soft software analogy it would be like if you had to write a whole bunch of software modules

um and you could never run them together um and you couldn't run them on the target computer like like when you're testing them you'd have to test them individually and not in the actual computer that they're going to run on gotcha then you put them put all the modules together run it for the first time in a in a completely different or very different computer and it has to run with no bugs that is difficult the software analogies to Rocket design are deep the modular reuse I mean there's many of these for those who aren't familiar with it's not like this is an aerospace engineer by traditional training coming but but is in fact radically changing the industry I think applying a CS perspective to Industry after industry and like how would how would you

know a computer scientist or a physicist approach the problem which oftentimes is a solution very unlike the industry incumbents there's there's a certain Elegance to it um at least from the outside outside Observer like myself um let me switch if I may to some student questions which will be completely in a different direction um first one comes from NIU in uh an architectural design c-term so this will be switching more to the other side of our brain for a moment what do you look for in design and related if you'd like what do you look for in art design might be more immediately relevant but that's where he's coming from sure um I mean I I think there's um I mean you you want to make something beautiful I mean you want to to trigger what whatever fundamental

esthetic algorithms are like like in your brain there's you have I think some intrinsic uh elements that that represent beauty um and and that that trigger the the emotion of appreciation of Beauty in in your in your mind um and I think that these are these are actually relatively consistent among people I mean not not completely um some people like not Everyone likes the same thing but there are there's a lot of commonality um and and and and there yeah and there there but but I think it it is important to com to combine aesthetic design with functionality like the the thing that's like if you say like what was really hard about say the model S or the model X um was to combine Aesthetics and um utility so to to balance the two um you can make a car look

very good by giving it sort of um certain proportions like making it sort of low and slim and and and um uh but if you uh if you do that the the utility is is significantly affected um so the big challenge with the say the model S was trying to figure out how do we get five adults plus two kids cuz I want to have seven seater it seems like the dragon and every Tesla has room for seven seven five children I can see that might be important the N perimeter I definely don't think we should take the whole family on the spacecraft um but but uh but like the big challenge with the like with with the S was having a car that had high utility and look good um and the same with the X um so like like with the to make a sports car look good is relatively easy um but

to make a sedan look good or an SUV look good is is quite difficult um and um and I think another principle is you want to have it feel bigger on the inside than it looks on the outside um and that's also a really hard thing to do um and then really pay attention to the little details the that the nuances of of design and shape and form function and um the you know just the the way it looks in different lights and when something's off the little thing how do you experience that it it drives me bananas yeah um I mean it's and it the problem is like if you you can train yourself to to pay attention to the tiny details I think almost anyone can um although it it it this is a very much double-edged sword because then you you see all the little details um

and then little things drive you crazy um so but like most people don't they don't see they don't consciously see the small details but they they do subconsciously see them like you you you sort of your mind takes in a result of the overall you know the an overall impression and and you you know if something is appealing or not even though you may not be able to point out exactly why um and it's it's a summation of of these many small details so most of us experience it as a oh I think that's ugly or I think that's beautiful or like wow that's elegant but can't break it down you mentioned something in passing like you can train yourself in this though yeah you can train yourself I think you can make yourself pay attention to to why um you essentially

bring the subconscious awareness into conscious awareness I wish I could do that how do you do that just just pay really close attention almost like a meditation on the object and trying to find the details like why do I not like this is that what yeah just look look closely and carefully mhm um and you know for any given object it's that it's geometry it's uh um I heard someone whisper Steve Jobs and that thought occurred to me as well I worked briefly with him and I I could only experience it as a visceral agitation with imperfection and and like that's just wrong like that has to be fixed I I I have to turn it off otherwise it's I can't go through life it just yeah it's yeah it's the world around you or even in yeah yeah if you because there's there's

always something wrong somewhere all the time and so um it you really have to turn it off otherwise you know God you just get the like the list of the mental list of things that are wrong just drives you crazy I just wish there was way you could just like record it for everyone else to go fix cuz like this running tally right oh my god um so uh let me go to one other question I I found that one interesting I I had no idea where that was going to go so I really appreciate that question Nick thank you um let's see which one of these do there's some combination of questions let me mention both and you can pick which one you like more because they both relate to colonizing Mars one comes from Henning rodo a PhD candidate in civil and environmental engineering

which just asks Elon given your plan to bring a bring a million colonists to Mars what are the pressing future technologies that need to be developed in order to support a robust and thriving surface Colony so technology for I guess survival and then maybe related from the Stanford space initiative students how do you envision humans governing a separate Planet I'm not sure if you had to think about that yet thought a little bit about those things I mean the obiously like the first challenge is just getting there at all and like that's you know so SpaceX is working super hard on figuring out just how to get large numbers of people and cargo to Mars um and I think know we've got something that I think works at a sort of fundamental physics and economics

level so it's like a question of figuring out the detailed design um which we're working on we're only spending like half an hour a week on it because we like pressing near 10 priorities but I'm kind of excited about how it's coming together um so so getting just getting that transport thing solved I think will will then open up a tremendous number of opportunities for people on Mars you know just like you know having the Union Pacific Railroad to California um and the you know and look at what what you know resulted after whole ecosystem of other companies figured out like get there then you get then the opportunities for entrepreneurs are are tremendous um that ranges everything from you know everything you can imagine like starting the fir you know

like the first Italian restaurant or something on Mars you know it's like somebody's got to do it and it'll be kind of cool um you know like a iron iron Refinery you know like found you know the like the the entire base of Industry um and um and then there probably be things like that are just unique to Mars um but but we we got to we got to get that you know effectively that Union Pacific Railroad there in order to get get the entrepreneurs there that and and and then create a fertile environment for them to U create uh companies um so that that's that's MH so so once you're there it's it's going to be I think a lot of exciting things that can be done um and and in the beginning you know people would live in kind of glass domes uh but but over time it

would ter for Mars and make it like Earth um and uh so so I think there just be a lot of super exciting things that are hard to predict just like when they're building you in Pacific they it would hard nobody would have predicted Silicon Valley in Hollywood right you know that that's would have been like and urbanization in general yeah yeah well that California would be like the most popul state in the country like they like that sounds crazy for them gold was discovered right yeah um so and so the yeah that I think like it's it's really in common on SpaceX or you know maybe other organizations to figure out how to get there otherwise nothing else matters right U and then once you get there there's a lot of sort of yeah a a lot that can be done um from

a governance standpoint um I mean obviously ultimately the governance of Mars will be up to the Martians but the um cool that we have a name for him now you become a martian when you go there um but but I I think if you said like how would you do drop democracy 2.

0 you know or like some new new version I think we' probably have more of a direct democracy than a representative democracy um and you know when the when the United States was formed it was really it was impossible to have a direct democracy like like you even sending a letter took weeks um so there was no way that people could like vote directly on issues you had to have Representatives interesting so I think um I think probably there would be more direct democracy and is this thing about the latency of communication fromation latencies and just communication errors and communication latency uh when you have letters that that take weeks to get anywhere uh would would have made um governance almost impossible I think if if it hadn't been a representative

democracy you had a lot of people who couldn't even read or or right you know so H that's fascinating I was just wondering if if you were to start over with a clean sheet of paper on governance is there do you think a framework that could be envisioned that encompasses other sentin beings to come meaning the AIS and others who might clamor for their rights along um yeah it's difficult to predict but I can say think probably we would would aim for a more direct democracy um and then and I was talking to Larry Page about this and he had a like a good suggestion like we should limit the number of words in a law um because like we have these like thousand page laws that get passed and like nobody's read them Twitter equivalent of parsimony yeah like I don't

know thousand word letter count or something like that like if you can't if you can't write the law in a th words then probably it shouldn't be there um um and you know just we shouldn't have you know a single law passed that's like the size of Lord of the Rings that's right and and like literally not a single person in Congress has read the whole thing like a tax code it's unscrewable yes exactly so so there's that and then I think um laws also have an infinite lifespan unless they're given some sort of you know Sunset period so probably be good to Def laws to to have a a sunset period like and if it's not if it's not good enough to be renewed then it then it goes away um and uh and maybe some hysteresis um in that in making it easier to remove a law

than to put one in place um you can just imagine cuz like over time like the the body of LW just gets bigger and bigger and bigger so like you like how do you avoid that um and and you have inertia associated with lws and and so maybe you know would take 60% to create a LW but only 40% to remove a LW um how interesting how fascinating yeah something like that those are like the the the rules of a constitutional democracy have such a profound impact and uh to have a a new playground would be fantastic um there there's something embedded in what you said a moment ago that that I want to highlight on a transition to perhaps a closing question uh I heard in passing you know I think about some of these things about a half hour a week if I heard you right and

um this is I think a profound thing to to to dwell on is that you know he's changing the world in so many areas and not many entrepreneurs I see get and myself and included enamored with all of the possibilities of a future Mars base of the terraforming of the every aspect of it that might need to come into being and and I find myself often distracted by those future questions that are a little less relevant today what you just heard was we got to solve the railway first like let me put 90% 95% of my effort into that and not get distracted by all the other interesting questions that need to come later and I remember a few years ago maybe three or four years ago trying to get you to brainstorm with Craig Venter about you know doing a sample return from

Mars and sending a genetic sequencer there to help understand life there that might exist Etc and I remember profoundly that the response was that is a really interesting topic but I got to get these Rockets to work first before that's going to be relevant to me and let me hunker down on what's important here and that ability to prioritize it uh on the Stepping Stones to a huge vision it's this it's this interesting dichotomy like not just pure Visionary scattered across many things alone it's clear sense of where we're heading chaining back to the present and making sure we're taking the right steps to not in a fumble to future if you will I think I wish we could all do that uh in the way we try to implement change um so let me move if I may to one last

question which could be broad or not which is there's a lot of people here from all kinds of parts of the world and I think everyone who hears your story uh you know an immigrant from South Africa AFC through Canada to the US taking on four or five different Industries with great a plum and success um is inspiring uh but it's not just that you've had business success or technology success it's that you really are changing the world for the better in these areas um and so I guess maybe for as a closing question again looking from the present to the Future what do you see as the sort of the biggest pressing problems that need to be addressed this may in fact require you pull that filter off for a moment on the things of the world that are broken and if

if everyone here in the audience could be a change agent themselves in their area of passion what would you hope to catalyze today if you can say guys go solve this big hairy problem and figure out why it's broken um I you know I say I don't think everyone needs to go you know try to solve like some big big world changing problem I mean I think that like if I really think like we should just think like are we doing something that's useful mhm um to the world like if you're doing something useful that's great imagine it's like animal some things are more useful sure um sure but but maybe your personal P like I just think that like sort of a usefulness optimization is is like that's like a really good thing um you know if you if you've done something that's

useful to your fellow human beings that's you've done a really good thing um and uh people should feel proud of doing that um you know it doesn't doesn't always have to be something that's going to change the world I mean sometimes the world should just keep going in a particular direction help the world um yeah might people might be going in the right direction in and I mean in a lot of ways the the world is in we're we are in in great shape and that if you look at say violent crimes um you know um per capita in the world it's at an like alltime low um uh we're actually quite prosperous uh uh and you know compared to history um and um you know I think there's a lot of things to feel good about in terms of how the world is today um access to information

is incredible I mean uh anyone with like a $100 device could has access to basically all the worlds of information which is an incredible thing um and um yeah so I I honestly I just think like the best thing for to try to do is say like hey what is something I can do that would really be be useful uh to the world and just do that you know and it's great well fantastic thank you so much for being with us today and future Fest and forun your [Applause] future so just very quickly uh on behalf of all the faculty and staff affiliated with stvp uh we'd like to thank president Hennessy uh the School of Engineering and our home Department of management science and engineering uh Matthew tw's Stanford arts and the amazing staff here at Bing that was so helpful

to us this morning uh dfj obviously for your incredible sponsorship of futurefest and also for your continued long-term support of stvp and our hope to create entrepreneurship education opportunities for Stanford students and of course we offer our most sincere thanks please help me in thanking again Elon Musk and Steve jinson [Music] [Applause]