好了。祝贺大家度过了精彩的一周。2次完美的飞行和着陆。难以置信。我想基本上相隔了3天。嗯，好吧，2天，像是4天。嗯，不到72小时。随便吧。就像，不管怎样。快得有问题。是的。40，48小时。左右。2次飞行之间。所以那就是。而且它们都配合密切。好吧。所以，是的，这是一次。是的。我不知道你们怎么样，但伙计，本周早些时候那次之后，我感觉真的很好。而这是否让我们。我们有19次轻型着陆吗？

18次着陆。抱歉，18次着陆，是的。

多少次，多少次着陆？有多少次着陆后火箭没有随后爆炸？好吧，只有 16 次。你是说 16 次。

好吧。

这就像把它当成一道数学谜题来问。我的意思是，那个，我们已经成功着陆了 16 次，而且还在增加，我们开始让火箭着陆显得像是稀松平常的事，这太棒了，因为本来就应该这样。我的意思是，今年是火箭技术现状发生革命的一年。你们所取得的成就真是太他妈不可思议了。我认为你们应该感到非常、非常自豪。当然，绝不是想让大家自满，但你们应该为自己把 SpaceX 带到今天这一步感到非常自豪，我们现在已经让其他所有火箭都显得荒唐可笑了。就好比你有一家飞机公司，SpaceX 也在制造飞机，我们的飞机起飞并在你的目的地着陆，而所有竞争对手也都有飞机。可一旦飞到你的着陆地点上空，你就得背着降落伞跳出去，然后飞机坠毁。你会想，天啊，这似乎有点浪费。所以，现在能看到这种事经常发生，真是相当惊人。还有多枚 Reef Loan 火箭。对。我的意思是，这太疯狂了。所以我们的发射次数已经超过了中国、俄罗斯、欧洲以及美国其他公司的总和。

已经如此了。

对，已经如此了。我得告诉你们，如果我在这些竞争对手中的任何一家工作，我现在就会开始润色简历。

所以。

不过还是那句话，不要太自大。别担心。在这种情况下不要挑战命运。所以大家会变得非常迷信。什么都信。所以，对，看到这样一个。我的意思是，而且我们的火箭是。火箭上升时的镜头，我觉得实在太美了。我的意思是，这是我见过的所有画面中最美的画面之一。让人双膝发软。双膝发软。所以我们现在已经发射了 3 枚经过飞行验证的助推器。经过飞行验证，对。

顺便说一句，对今后使用飞过的火箭的客户来说，3 是一个重要数字，因为保险界表示，在成功 3 次之后，从他们的角度看，风险就没有区别了。所以，

对，航天业这种某种程度上颠倒过来的观念很惊人：人们竟然会认为，乘坐一枚从未飞行过、从未离开过地面的火箭，不知怎么就比乘坐一枚已经完成过、成功完成过整个任务而且没有任何损坏的火箭更好。就像，等等，如果我们再次回到飞机这个例子，一架飞机刚驶出工厂，你想成为第一个驾驶它的人吗？绝对不想。那太疯狂了。就像要轻柔地。一位非常有经验的试飞员会轻柔地驾驶它绕机场飞行多次，逐步提高速度和高度，然后每一次，经过很长时间，他们都会发现需要修理的东西。实际上，火箭也应该这样运作。应该是这样：见鬼，不，我可不想乘坐一枚火箭的首次飞行。我怎么知道它能正常工作？所以你要选那些经过飞行验证的。

我们需要一点音乐。

对，我们需要。你想唱的音乐在哪里？我会为我的 iPhone 播放。我真的要为我的 iPhone 播放。

我们得重新播放这段视频。

对，我们来。

我们能重新播放这段视频吗？我们要配上一些音乐播放。它。

你在期待那个什么？

你会吗。

我狂野的欲望，我坠入了一个火环，我坠入了一个燃烧的火环，我不断下坠。它表现得很糟糕。火焰越蹿越高，它燃烧，燃烧，燃烧。火环。那个环。我的意思是，约翰尼·卡什作为未来学家所作的预测真是惊人。他怎么知道的？他怎么知道的？他怎么知道的？我坠入了一个燃烧的火环。好了。

它还在继续。

哦，不好意思。安静。就像真的把我按掉了。它关不掉。好吧，这下好了。所以 CRS 12 是最后一个新的 Dragon 太空路径，Dragon 1。没错。所以，那，那是。对，那是。那确实是一个伟大的初始建造时代的终结。所以显然，你还可以再飞往 Dragon 1 好几次、好几次，但这意味着我们可以停止。停止那方面的工作，或者从现在起把资源从那里重新调配出去。对。

所以。

嗯，还有翻新。

还有翻新。

对，翻新。

但是。

没错。

对。所以事实上，Dragon 的重复使用确实没得到多少关注，我认为这也是我们需要向公众普及的一件事。所以，如果你看一下 F9 与 Dragon 的组合体，这套系统中有很大一部分是可重复使用的，显然包括助推器，它是。可以说占了其中的 70%。抱歉，我想。我好像把话都吞下去了。我想努力把这个词发清楚。抱歉。我昨晚几乎没睡。我就像，大脑停了，可能不工作了。对。所以 Dragon 的第 1 版已经出色地完成了职责。我只是想。让我们为 Dragon 鼓掌。

Dragon 1。

我的意思是，那东西是我们设计的。我们设计 Dragon 1 时，根本不知道自己在做什么。就，真的。所以它成功了。而且到目前为止一直有效。它一直表现得很完美。还是那句话，敲木头求好运。我的意思是，它的记录简直令人难以置信。还飞过，也做过一个回流的 Dragon。所以关键显然在于，对。对于再次飞行真正重要的是，我们能否快速、快速且完整地再次飞行。快速地再次飞行，而且无需翻修。这是我们的目标。所以。因为显然我们有航天飞机这个例子，它算是半可重复使用，除了主要发射结构，也就是那个。承受载荷的东西，那个橙色大燃料箱，其余部分理论上全都可以重复使用，但没有任何部分能够快速或低成本地重复使用。因此，航天飞机最终的成本比具有相同有效载荷能力的一次性运载火箭还高。而这实际上让很多人不再尝试制造可重复使用火箭，因为他们会把航天飞机看作一个。看作可重复使用为何行不通的案例。但那只是1个样本。好吧。就像，并不。说明不了什么。但可以肯定的是，要让我们真正获得重复使用的成果，一件非常重要的事，就是在不影响可靠性的前提下，让这种重复使用尽可能经济高效、尽可能快速。

就像飞机一样。

对，没错。BFR 确实将拥有。它确实从一开始就被设计为具备与 747 相当或更好的调度能力。所以，尤其是助推级，助推级将返回并降落在发射台上。如果你愿意，基本上可以每小时发射 1 次 BFR 助推级。每天发射 24 次，甚至可能更多。所以。我说我们的目标是实现像飞机一样的可重复使用性时，我的意思就是如此。你们了解我，从来不需要揣摩言外之意。只要读字面意思。现在。你知道，你已经有了那个。这里有太多了。好东西太多了。

对。

过一遍。

而且显然这只是其中一部分。

对，对，没错。如果你有什么想说的？你有麦克风，还是我有麦克风。哦，你有？

我有麦克风。我在做现场解说。

好的，太好了。完美。对。《神秘科学剧院 3000》。这是一个节点引用中的节点引用。所以这些领带组箱，看起来相当棒，而且似乎非常好用，大幅增强了我们在再入过程中的控制能力。它们显然对猎鹰重型火箭至关重要，尤其是侧助推器。所以结果相当不错。但我认为这是美国最大的钛铸件，或许也是世界上最大的。我们知道是不是吗，还是。

是的。

哪个。地球还是地球。世界上的地球。好的。所以，哇，这真是。就像。对。比世界上最大的南瓜强多了。这就像世界上最大的领带锻件或领带铸件。而且在重复使用方面好得多，因为它不需要，你知道，在各处贴上那些会着火的小软木条，让它看起来像是栅格翼正在燃烧、它不会、火箭要坠毁了，上次看起来就是那样。猎鹰重型火箭正在组装成形。这会很令人兴奋。

说得太轻描淡写了。

是的。所以，对，猎鹰重型火箭发射时，它将是最大、最强大的。嗯，是最强大的，而且我想，如果它能进入轨道，它将是自 Saturn V 以来所有火箭中送入轨道的有效载荷最高的。所以土星吸血鬼，把那个放上去，愿它到达上方，拜托了。

你有木头吗？

我的意思是，这算是一层乙烯基涂层。

那算数吗？

好吧，那我们完蛋了。就因为这是乙烯基材质的，我们得

下次用一张木桌。

所以。

顺便说一句，我们没有排练过。这是一段喜剧表演。全都是即兴的。

对，对。今天是周二晚上。开放麦之夜在周五。周五开放麦之夜，对。所以，猎鹰重型的厉害之处，这实在壮观得不可思议。它的推力是猎鹰 9 的 3 倍，是猎鹰 9 推力的 3 倍。所以我们说的是起飞时 500 万磅的推力。500 万。土星 5 号也只有 750 万。所以猎鹰重型的推力将达到土星 5 号的 2/3。这确实是大得令人难以置信的推力，而它的有效载荷能力，当然在完全一次性使用模式下，是第二强火箭的 2 倍，是超过 2 倍。在完全同类比较的情况下，而且具备可重复使用能力，我相信它仍然是所有飞往近地轨道的火箭中入轨有效载荷最高的。是这样吗。我刚才是不是说了一件完全不符合事实的事，还是说不是？

我觉得这是真的。

好的。对，很好。如果它不是最高的，也非常、非常接近。特别是如果你让助推器在下航区着陆，你仍然应该能够回收全部3枚助推器，拿回整流罩，然后唯一不回收的就是级间段，抱歉，是上面级。那么对于一次猎鹰重型飞行来说，飞行器重复使用的比例就极高。假设全部3个芯级都返回，整流罩也返回，那么你说的重复使用比例会超过90%。所以这就像。那真的太疯狂了。对，所以，对，所以各方面都取得了相当巨大的进展。我的意思是，这些确确实实是即将发生的事情，是地球上最令人兴奋的事情，没有之一。比如，就像，如果猎鹰重型将在12月或1月发射，还会发生什么呢？10月。

希望能在 12 月。

作为理想目标。12月。对，我们的目标是12月发射猎鹰重型。但比如说，它会是12月发生的全世界最酷的事情。或者如果是在1月，那就是整个地球上1月发生的最酷的事情。那就是你正在做的事。你正在做地球上最有意思的事。试图走出地球。我们不知道外面有什么，但可以肯定的是，在地球上，它就是。你确实正在做最令人兴奋的事情。而且，对，所以

另一件令人兴奋的事情。

那些锥体里会装载一个非常酷的有效载荷。所以无论如何，我真心希望这东西别爆炸。好了，

很高兴交流。好的，所以载人演示1号航天器正在完成一次已经完成的集成对接。它正在洁净室里进行最终集成。令人难以置信地兴奋。比如，如果猎鹰重型是12月或1月最令人兴奋的事情，那么我认为，这是接下来最令人兴奋的事情。

对，绝对是。嗯，当龙飞船2飞起来时，龙飞船2的首次飞行将再次成为地球上发生的最令人兴奋的事情，至少在前后几周内如此。所以我不知道还有什么会更——外星人着陆吧，你知道，我不知道。但龙飞船2的全部意义，就是恢复美国将宇航员运送到近地轨道的能力，不再依赖俄罗斯人或听凭普京摆布，这是一件非常小的事情。我的意思是，希望如此。但他把联盟号座位的价格从最初每个2000万美元。现在是8000万。联盟号每个座位8000万。

我敢说，等我们飞起来后，它们就会降价。

对。竞争是一件美好的事情。

对。

运送2.0。我对运送整流罩2感到非常兴奋。显然，它在各个方面都比整流罩1有巨大改进，而且其设计也非常适合重复使用。所以我们已经非常接近完整回收整流罩并实现整流罩的重复使用了，因为那个整流罩的完全仿冒成本大约是500万或600万美元。所以，每次我们拿回那个轴承并重复使用它，只要回收和重复使用成本，也就是回收和翻修成本很低，那么使用可重复使用的轴承，每次发射就能节省超过500万美元。而且我认为，进行某种思想实验来理解为什么某件事值得做，是有好处的。好吧，想象一下，如果有一个巨大的现金托盘从太空中飘落下来，而你要做的只是接住它，那么就会有一个装着500万美元现金的托盘从空中飘过。你可以任由它沉到海底，或者天知道被冲到哪里。或者接住它。我认为我们应该接住它。但那也将会是。以前从来没人做过那件事。从来没人。从来没人。我甚至不确定是否真的有人提出过那个想法，有吗？我不知道，也许在某个不为人知的地方甚至有人提出过，但我从没听说有人提出过，甚至只是提出过，更不用说实现了。所以那会非常酷。那是加勒特。

嘿，左边的是加勒特，

我想。实际上看起来相当不错。

右边是苏尼。

对，我看到了。对。所以我觉得我们有一套看起来相当漂亮的。这绝对是我见过最好看的宇航服。比如，对，我觉得它比大多数都好。我的意思是，你很难想到电影里有哪套宇航服比这更好。而那些实际上不能用。它们只是，比如，你知道，它们实际上根本不能用。但这套既好看，又能用。而且它是我们打造舱外活动服的良好基础，让人们可以在太空中到舱外去。还有一套舒适、看起来体面，并且你可以，比如，你知道，穿着你的火星服在火星上徒步的火星服。所以我们会制造这些服装的许多变体，复杂程度会不断提高。我的意思是，你们见过外面的其他宇航服吗？就像，天啊，比如，我们在这里努力做的事情中，一个关键点就是让那些正在作职业决定的孩子，作出投身太空事业的职业决定。而其中一个会与人产生某种真正边缘系统共鸣的东西，就是他们看到一套看起来很棒的宇航服。我们希望那种边缘系统反应是。我希望有一天能穿上那套宇航服。这就是要把它做成那样的原因，也是为什么这实际上很重要。把它做得超级酷，是为了说服那些刚从大学毕业、真正聪明的孩子，不要去华尔街工作，让你的灵魂慢慢被抽干。你可以，你知道，研究火箭，也许有一天穿上那套宇航服，并帮助让生命成为多行星的存在。这仍然令我难以置信。比如，就在几天前，我和某个人交谈，他们说，好吧，你为什么关心火星？比如，或者去任何远离地球的地方。我说，什么？你在说什么？当然。难道你不想要一个我们成为太空航行文明和多行星物种的未来吗？那难道不是要令人兴奋得多吗？多得多。我的意思是，这与成为一个只会坐在那里、然后我们会彼此交战，最终文明会因为某种自然或人为的事情而崩溃的单行星物种相比，好得无法相提并论。这就是单行星文明会发生的事情。但最终，多行星文明也会发生这种事。不过它们或许能延续1亿年，你知道，所以最早的人类文字距今不到10000年。那算不了什么。所以无论如何，努力为人类创造美好的未来，确保生命本身拥有一份保险，而且。但我认为，就让人们热血沸腾而言，至少真正让我热血沸腾的是，它会让未来变得令人兴奋，让你期待未来。你早上醒来，就像，没错，我们要去火星。你知道，还要前往更远的地方，甚至远远超越火星，我们会去谷神星，会去木星的卫星，然后算是，你知道，在行星与卫星之间一路跳跃，直至太阳系之外。就像，该死，该死。

这里有一些关于得克萨斯的图表，展示了他们在提高速度和简化工作方面取得的成果，这一切都是为了让他们能够专注于更加令人兴奋的事情。

是的，所以我们确实在运行很多 Block 5 发动机。比如发动机点火已经变成例行工作，然后希望我们很快就会转向，我们刚刚把它转为整体级测试，这样发动机就不会单独点火。我们直接在霍桑安装发动机，把它送到得克萨斯州，进行静态点火来验证贮箱，而不是一直来回运送东西、再在这里重新集成，这简直是后勤噩梦，尤其是在我们的发射频率提高时。所以，是的，感觉得克萨斯州那边的进展很顺利。而且，是的，我们为所有项目进行了静态点火。Draco 推力已经完成。是的，那些东西的进展相当不错。然后 Raptor 感觉也应该有点声音。是的，它安静得像耳语。这台发动机安静得能听见一根针落地。那是一根非常大的针。还在继续。这不是循环播放。这确实是发动机仍在运行。还在继续。是的。好了。所以，是的，祝贺 Raptor 团队开发出了一台已经历1200秒点火、42次主发动机测试，而且还没有爆炸的发动机。听我说，在 Merlin 的早期阶段，它是一台远没有 Raptor 复杂的发动机，一开始爆炸过很多次。我们会说，耶，它还在那里。你遇到一些发射异常或者起火。所以这只是起火，那没问题。如果变成了细小的弹片，那么这种事以前经常发生。而且在大多数发动机开发项目中，事实上，可能没有任何一个发动机开发项目能从一台初始开发发动机上取得这么多成果。航天飞机主发动机的开发中，他们会不断地让那些发动机汽化。现在燃烧室压力大约是200 bar。所以这是一个压力非常高的系统。而飞行设计将比这个开发装置更进一步。它会更轻，在节流方面能力更强，最终会有高得离谱的推重比。它的燃烧室压力将达到250 bar。然后随着时间推移，我认为我们将能把它一点点提高到300 bar，这实在令人难以置信。然后会有 Raptor 1、Raptor 2、Raptor 3，而对于 BFR 和 BFS，我们正在制造第1版，之后会有第2版、第3版。所以如果你没有。公司只有极小一部分人在研发 BFR 和 Raptor。那有点像，有点像一次先遣侦察任务。然后，随着我们能够减少投入 Falcon 和 Dragon 的工程时间并腾出生产资源，我们会逐步把，我不知道，可能把公司70%、80%的力量转向 BFR 系统。但如果你觉得，嗯，也许所有很酷的 BFR 工作都没我的份，别担心，因为会有 BFR9，或者第9版，这会和 Falcon 9 混淆，但在我们所能想象到的遥远未来里，VFR 会有许多版本，许许多多个版本。而且，是的，人们认为 VFR 第1版的尺寸很大。你们应该看看，当你说现在让我们真正优化每吨货物送抵火星表面的成本时，它会是什么样子。你开始考虑的是把1000-1500公吨有效载荷送到火星表面，而不是第1版的100吨。所以 VFR 第2版或 BFR 第3版的目标，将是把送往火星的有效载荷相比 BFR1 提高一个数量级。我认为你需要。BFR1，我认为它正是正确的起点，因为它没有大到不便用于卫星发射。因此它小到足以非常稳妥地用于地球卫星发射器，并为客户提供更大的整流罩，即直径9米的整流罩。所以可以设想，比如放入一个直径8米的碟形天线，或者，如果你想发射像是分辨率高一个数量级的超级哈勃望远镜，用 vfr 显然可以做到；发射我们自己的通信卫星、发射渡渡鸟情报卫星、科学卫星。而且如果你们看过我在阿德莱德的演讲，那是我在经历了极其疯狂的时差反应之后做的，而且我意识到自己已经不再年轻了，我就像是夏末、初秋的鸡，我还能那么轻松地摆脱时差反应吗？但我认为我传达了一些要点，而且我认为那里最令人震撼的事情之一，就是作为完全可重复使用系统的 BFR，其每次飞行成本低于 Falcon 1 的每次飞行成本。这简直令人震撼。但仔细想想，其实这完全合理，因为如果你想包租一架747，从加利福尼亚往返澳大利亚，费用是50万美元。所以往返一趟，整架747都归你独享，去程和回程。50万美元。如果你想买一架新的单发动机涡轮螺旋桨飞机，至少要150万美元。而且它甚至到不了澳大利亚。你会发现它连夏威夷都到不了，你将不得不跳机，然后游完剩下的路程。所以你们能看出这些。这确实有道理。比如当然，像747这样高度可重复使用的东西，即使它是一架巨型飞机，或者 A380，或者随便选一架巨型飞机。每次任务的成本都低于小型的一次性飞机。比如高出3倍、4倍，不是只有一点点差别。是的，所以这相当疯狂。这就是可重复使用的重要程度。我发现我们真的必须始终提醒自己的一件事是，我们想要快速且完全的可重复使用。我们甚至连油漆都不想做。我们甚至不想在两次飞行之间给火箭刷漆，就像如果我们对一架商业客机这么做，给一架 south……每次西南航空的航班、航班降落时都重新刷漆。嗯，我不知道，你会需要1天左右。所以西南航空的一架737原本每天可以飞8到10个航班，来回飞旧金山，现在就只能飞1个。这样就让它的价值下降了一个数量级。而你所做的只不过是给飞机刷漆，如果只用1天，那还是某种干得非常快的飞机漆。所以再次强调，确实需要不断提醒自己，快速且完全的可重复使用具有至关重要的意义。也祝贺卫星团队完成了 Tintin。我认为 Tintin 差不多可以运出了。计划在12月飞行。Tinson 中包含数量惊人的技术，而且，是的，它将成为 SpaceX 的第1颗卫星。现在，卫星方面的事情我总是有点不愿谈论，因为它会引发各种头条之类的东西。而实际上，在卫星方面，我们只需要非常安静，有点埋头苦干，把技术做出来，把它送上去，至少部署400颗，这样我们就能开始在世界许多地方开通卫星宽带。而卫星业务实际上将使我们能够把收入流从，比如说每年30亿至40亿美元。目前我们的年化收入约为20亿美元，随着我们赢得更多业务、更多 NASA 业务、更多国防部情报业务，你知道，但随着你，然后，然后还有私人载人飞行。所以私人载人飞行，也就是想去空间站或者绕月一圈的私人宇航员。那可能每年还能增加5亿美元左右。但如果你只是考虑所有发射，以传统方式利用发射所能做的所有事情，确实就会触顶。最高40亿美元，但可能更接近30亿、35亿美元。所以相比我们现在的水平，仍是显著增长。但卫星互联网将使我们能达到每年300亿美元的收入。所以卫星业务会极其重要，极其重要，因为有了这种现金流，我们就可以，我们确实能在火星上建造那个基地。即使没有人帮助我们。况且会有人帮我们，私营部门、公共部门都会有人想帮助我们。我真的希望，我希望 NASA，你知道，理想情景是 NASA 发布某种类似于。某种就像最初的货运补给项目，你知道，那些货运手推车，当时有多个竞争者，你以固定价格投标，并设有里程碑。如果你没有完成里程碑，你就会被解雇，他们会重新计算剩余资金并交给其他人。所以最开始是 SpaceX 和 Rocket Plane Kistler。毫不意外，Rocket Plane Kistler 没有完成他们的里程碑。但后来 Orbital 加入了，而且他们完成了。所以如果能有某种以结果为基础的机制，那会非常酷。有明确的里程碑，但同时也没有一大堆妨碍进展的繁重官僚程序。是的，火星成本。是的，就是火星成本。那取得了非常好的效果，尤其是在进度方面。

但大型航空航天公司不想要那个项目。

是的。

所以这是一场大战。

那意味着他们必须，比如，努力工作。我不喜欢那样。比如那种不可能输的情况。好了，所以我们在翻修设施方面取得了巨大进展。有一样东西是我本人真的迫不及待想让它投入使用的，就是 SpaceX 边界。所以我们要实际，我们实际上正在建造自己的铸造厂，在那里我们能以非常短的交付周期制造任何类型的先进材料。这样我们就不用受制于铸造供应商，他们会向我们收取巨额费用、耗费漫长时间，最后交付一个通常一直都很平庸的结果。也许有一家我从没听说过的罕见铸造供应商不会这样，但除此以外，所有铸造供应商的周期都超级长，费用高得离谱，结果也很平庸。所以我们认为，在这里拥有自己的铸造厂，可以把迭代周期至少缩短一个数量级。因此你可以设计一个零件，制造工装并完成铸造，在1个月内完成那个零件，长远来看则可以在1周内完成。是的，所以那是一个。我不知道是不是。Charlie 在什么地方过来吗？

他在那边。

嘿，你想谈几句铸造厂吗？好啊，这就像是 15 年的。15 年来我们一直身处铸件供应商健康状况之中。所以，就像是终于可以摆脱那种状况了，这或许挺好的。

没错。所以，是的，我们有很多人一直在制定铸造厂的所有计划，而真正的好消息是，它算是把我们几年前在这里组建的材料团队，以及所有生产人员汇集到了一起，并讨论这件事。但我们将能够在内部完成一切，基本上从 CAD 图纸到最终零件装上火箭，或者说其中大多数会装在发动机部件上。

我的意思是，你向我描述的事情是。我的意思是，实际上我觉得很难相信，但我认为确实如此。物理学上没有任何东西表明这不可能是真的。但你觉得呢？显然不是刚开始的时候，但假设我们从现在起往后推进 2 年，马马虎虎地算，从你拿到零件设计到有人做出一个能够飞行的产品。

对。所以就我们实际需要的加工时间而言，大概是 1 周。所以我说了。是的。所以那其中一部分。那其中一部分是你可以获得

一个纹身

1周。1周，是的。这样每个人都知道目标是什么。其中很大一部分是能够模拟我们需要做的事情。因为这个行业很多时候都在大量使用试错法。而我们的优势之一，是我们有很多理解。我们实际上可以模拟铸造究竟如何运作，这样就不必制作一大堆模具，然后再重做。所以我们可以直接把模具做好，而且可以把模具打印出来。如今，我们不用蜡来制作它。我们用打印出来的塑料制作。而且我们有一些非常酷的机器人机器，基本上只需1天、今天就能给那个模具制壳。传统供应商通常需要数周又数周。

数月。数月。

对，对。然后又一次，他们把它搞砸了，只好全部重来。所以铸造这个环节其实要么真的很慢，要么真的很快。就是，你知道，你把它熔化，几分钟内浇进去，而且看起来会非常酷。所以我希望你们所有人都过来看看。等我们的铸造设设施运转起来，有大量熔融金属飞来飞去会非常酷。

我觉得可以直接说，比如，就算是测试一下我们自己，问问最快能多快完成，这会很酷。理论上，从CAD设计到这是你的成品铸件。它是可以飞行的。实际的只是进——。我认为物理规律会允许我们在1天内做到这一点。

对，我们实际上可以在1天内完成所有实体工作。

半天。12秒。这就像，这是一件微妙的事，很多没有接触过铸造供应链有多糟糕的人会意识到，这实际上将会是最先进、能力最强的铸造厂，我认为，在任何地方，地球上的任何地方。对，对。我的意思是，你知道，那些铸造厂和

我全都去过。

所以这将会是最先进的。

哦，对。

好，对。就是这样。这就像一个巨大的，这就像一个惊人的，就像，你知道，它很惊人。一张隐藏的王牌。要满足你给我的那2项要求，它必须是最先进的铸造厂，而且它必须

离办公桌只有5分钟，所以。

对，没错。所以我可以去看看，没问题。所以它就在那个方向大约5分钟的地方。对。所以，对，我对这座铸造厂，以及能够快速迭代先进冶金技术并将其用于生产，感到超级兴奋。

举个例子，我们正在为猛禽发动机设计一种非常定制化的合金，它将会投入使用，我们会让它在自己的铸造厂里通过。这会非常棒。

所以，对，好吧，我就说，我会重复那些话。猛禽发动机，尤其是氧泵一侧，必须采用一种非常抗氧化的金属。否则，如果存在，你知道，高压、高温的纯氧或富氧程度很高的气体，它几乎会想要燃烧任何东西。所以，而且它还必须承受高压。因此我们一直在研制一种合金来实现这一点。我想我们至少已经做到这种合金的第2版，也许是第3版。对，对。所以总之，那座铸造厂将成为SpaceX拥有、而其他任何地方的任何人都没有的一项惊人超能力。所以。对。然后我们终于收购了一家公司。SpaceX自成立以来一直是有机增长的。大多数公司通过收购来增长，就像庞大的神经。增长来自收购。我们的增长完全是有机的，唯一一个很小的例外是EDM Express。因为我一直在问，外面肯定有一些我们想收购的公司。严格检验标准是，如果我们为SpaceX面试那些工程师，或者至少是其中很大一部分人，我们会愿意雇用他们。因此我们找到了EDM Express这一家，所以他们现在成为了SpaceX的一部分。好。到目前为止，2017年的发射计划进展顺利。所以我们还有5次发射要完成，这会让我们达到，对，全年20次发射，非常不可思议。然后明年我们可能会进行30次发射。目前安排了27次，但我认为可能还会有其他发射会回应那段时间。所以他们称之为2018年大约30次发射。一旦开始发射我们自己的星座，即使在初期，我们每年可能也会使用15到20次Falcon 9飞行。所以我们会进行一次发射，每

周

大概在2019年，可能是2019年年中。我们将接近每7天发射一次的节奏。这意味着有些发射之间只相隔1天，甚至会在同一天，因为它们不是均匀分布的。所以如果你觉得现在很疯狂，那就继续关注吧，这列疯狂列车正在踏上一段漫长旅程。然后当我们达到，当我们开始飞行时，VFR的助推器计划每年飞行1000次，至少是每年，不是整个寿命期间，而是每年。我会努力让那项改变尽可能接近，预期两次飞行之间的翻修为零，真的是零。现在，会有定期维护。所以就像喷气式飞机，你知道，喷气式飞机有定期维护、定期检查以及诸如此类的事项，我们会对bfr做同样的事。事实上，我们会采用许多同样适用于商业客机的规则和法规，而商业客机极其可靠。而且，对，从长期来看，我们可能会进行超过1000次，也许超过1000次助推器发射，然后每一艘VUSA最初会与bfs一起飞入轨道。而且有时在一个保守派面前说出这些词，我仍然会有点紧张。不是你们，但我和副总统在一起时，我刚刚和副总统开了一个小型会议，他当时在谈bfr。我就像，哇，大猎鹰。对，它确实是。绝对是。但如果你只是做一下基本计算，看看在火星上建立一座自给自足的城市需要什么。未来某个时候我们将不得不发射某种东西。数量级大约是。至少不会是10艘bfs，那，那实在太少了。而且，它可能也不是100艘。那可能还是太少。数量级可能是1000艘VF，你知道，巨大的该死的宇宙飞船，就像，就像《太空堡垒卡拉狄加》那样，该死地迁往火星，每次会合时，数量级大约是1000艘，因为这是建立一个可存续文明所需的数量。如果有大约100艘，你可以慢一些完成，但肯定不能少于100艘。然后每次飞船飞行，助推器可能要飞行5到7次，所有这些飞行中，除了飞船那次之外，其余都是加油船。所以这个庞然大物般的助推器会上上下下，就像电梯一样。数次。对，每天数次、数次。我非常有信心，我确信我们能做到这一点。确信。毫无疑问，沿途的道路可能会颠簸，但物理原理是正确的。我认为我们已经有了一套飞船和助推器的设计，我认为它相当他妈的棒，尤其是对第1版而言。所以我们会努力尽快把那家伙造出来，让它飞起来。而且，对，未来就像，就像我的脑子有点被震撼了。已经被震撼过好几次。你知道，只是想到这件事，哇，这怎么可能是真的？但它就是，它是真的。对。对。所以。就像我说的，我认为2018年很有可能不止那么多。对。然后明年显然会发射自航天飞机退役以来首批乘坐美国飞行器的美国宇航员乘组。航天飞机最后一次飞行是什么时候来着，像是6，2011年。对，6年前。所以到明年就是7年，自美国能够用美国飞行器将宇航员送入轨道以来，会有7年的空档。而那真的，那将会，我的意思是，那会超级更上一层楼。整个地球都会收看那次发射。基本上就是地球。某些。超过10亿人会观看那次发射。对。把它做对非常重要。对，那不可避免会是高口袋系数的一天，也应该如此。所以格温，这尤其是你应该谈谈的事情。我几乎完全没有接触过这件事。

所以我们的销售情况相当不错，包括商业和政府业务。地球同步轨道卫星的商业市场有所下滑，很遗憾，这不是我们的错。但有意思的是，想乘坐Dragon飞船的人。所以私人载人飞行的需求增长得相当显著。我们实际上正在推进3项彼此独立的私人载人任务，这真的很令人兴奋。实际上。4项。4项彼此独立的私人载人任务。就在最近，我们历史上确实已售出超过100次发射，合同价值达120亿美元，两者都已通过。而且展望未来，目前我们的任务中也有三分之一。我们刚刚飞了3次，我说过那是促使客户转变的关键数字。今后我们三分之一的任务全都采用飞行过的火箭。我认为到明年年底会达到50%，然后我认为到2019年，这根本不会再是谈话的一部分。它就只是一枚火箭。有时是新的，有时以前飞过。没关系。

这会成为常态。

这会很正常。是的。甚至不会有人问。我已经谈过私人宇航员任务了。我们目前正在竞标6项国家安全太空任务，包括3次GPS发射，另外3次实际上是猎鹰重型火箭发射。我祈祷我们能赢得这3次GPS发射，因为它们使用的是猎鹰9号。但那些重型火箭任务对我们来说会很难赢。不过，我仍然希望这3项中至少能拿到1项，我们会从12月开始到明年3月左右陆续得知结果。所以在政府这边，他们肯定开始更加依赖我们了。

当然。而且我确实想强调，猎鹰重型火箭的任务真的很重要。那些都是价值非常高的任务。它们能为 SpaceX 带来大量收入，因为我们的竞争对手就像是，你知道的，一头非常大的肥猪，真的很肥的猪。所以他们现在简直是在掠夺纳税人。ULA 的重型运载火箭发射。你甚至都不知道，你想知道那个数字吗？简直像犯罪一样。太疯狂了。所以在这件事上，我们可以有效地为政府和纳税人大幅降低成本，同时仍让它为 SpaceX 带来极其可观的正现金流。所以这是一个非常棒的双赢局面。但我们必须证明猎鹰重型火箭能行，因为他们。有一次我在想，我们是不是应该把它叫作“猎鹰 27”？因为这样就能延续按助推发动机命名的惯例。但那听起来有点吓人。所以就叫“猎鹰重型”，但这谁也骗不了。所以我只想说清楚。猎鹰重型火箭并不是事后才想到的东西，也不是什么不重要的东西。它实际上非常重要，而且每年可能能带来超过10亿美元的收入，或类似的数字。至少10亿美元。猎鹰重型火箭发射带来的收入可能还会更多，而如果没有猎鹰重型火箭，我们就无法触及。

是不是它有点高，但有可能。

对。但跟他们支付的费用相比，就像，对。能省下超过10亿美元。对。德尔塔 4 重型火箭大概是8亿美元左右。太疯狂了。好了。他们不会说，就像，你知道的，就像试着在某个、某样东西、某个粗陋的跳蚤市场之类的地方买点东西。就像他们不会说价格是多少，因为他们希望所有东西都通过谈判来定。但我们听说，德尔塔 4 重型火箭每次飞行的费用大约是8亿美元。就是这样。而且那是在他们每年都发射的情况下，而且如果更高，如果他们不发射。

5亿美元。

哦，5亿美元。哦，越来越好了。从某种意义上说，这是件好事，因为这不会很难与之竞争，但也令人难过，因为大量纳税人的钱正被烧掉：Delta 4 Heavy 如果每年发射一次，成本是8亿美元，而目前并没有说它会这么做；如果每2年发射一次，成本则是13亿美元。这就像是，我们的成本还不到小数点后面的那个数字，却拥有更强的能力。是的。所以。不过随着我们发展，我们确实需要留意成本增长。成本膨胀到完全占满可用空间的程度，真是惊人。我确实认为，有时候我们对成本有点漫不经心。而且。但始终要记住，我们能有多少钱用于帮助实现生命多行星化，也就是公司的根本目标、我们试图促成的根本善举、我们试图帮助实现的伟大善举，在很大程度上取决于我们获得多少收入减去产生多少成本。我们希望这个差额很大，这样就能把差额用于火星殖民、建设月球基地以及其他事情。我稍后会再谈月球基地这件事。我觉得，我们应该拥有一个月球基地，但它必须是一个永久有人驻守的基地。就像我们在南极洲有一个基地，我们也应该在月球上有一个基地，然后前往太阳系中的任何地方。家庭作业。这，这些杂务，这些杂务。这个。我不。首先，我想说声谢谢，并对大家完成认证流程表达深深的感激。我知道这常常既无聊又痛苦，但它是必要的，为了让我们实现火星目标，这是绝对必要的。所以，有时如果你在做某项政府认证工作，感觉真的很令人沮丧，只要记住，你正在做的事很重要。它对未来至关重要。没有那项认证，我们就不可能成功。是的，是的。刚才的掌声是献给所有承受痛苦的人，而那种痛苦很轻。所以这是一台很棒的机器。它看起来令人惊叹。就像，我真的对，我真的对这个设计感觉很好。它远远、远远领先于以往提出过的任何方案。实际上根本没有可比性。我们这里谈的是这样一种设计：它能够运行，能够在没有大气层、大气层稀薄或大气层稠密的行星或卫星上着陆，也能够在地球上进行点对点飞行，而事实上，普通大众对这件事的兴趣比前往其他行星还要大。他们就是喜欢地球，超过99%的人都是如此。他们实际上会认为，SpaceX 的全部价值都在于地球上的点对点地球运输，因为那才是他们会使用的东西，因为他们想离开地球的舒适环境。所以我认为，地球上的长途点对点运输最终真的会成为一件大事。我的意思是，假设你可以搭乘某种快速水翼船，前往一座浮动平台，比如，你知道，在洛杉矶外海；乘坐速度达到，你知道，50、60节的东西，15、20分钟就能到达。就像香港和澳门之间有这些渡轮，以那样的速度平稳运行，而且你在船上时就办理海关手续。所以你只要登船、办理海关手续、把行李放进储藏舱，这样就摆脱了整个机场环节。因为机场真的是地狱。所以实际上，由于我们不使用整套机场基础设施，我们基本上只用大型无人船就绕开了它。我们把无人船的规模扩大。我们正变得非常擅长这件事。因此，你可能先坐15分钟、也许20分钟的船，登船，然后从洛杉矶到伦敦或巴黎飞行半小时，也许是35、40分钟。所以这真的很不错。我们知道这一点，但大多数人不知道：低地球轨道上的任何东西每90分钟就会绕地球一周。所以它每天会绕地球好几圈。这意味着，用这样的系统，实际上1架飞行器1天就能完成所有这些航段。你真的可以来回跳跃。而且大部分时间，它会待在发射台上重新加注燃料，或者我应该说，重新装填。而经济性方面，出于几个原因，我实际上对地球到地球运输的经济性相当乐观。其一是，因为它移动得如此之快，你可以获得客机10倍的使用次数。所以，如果你从洛杉矶前往悉尼，飞行时间大约是14小时。你甚至无法在……内完成往返。即便他们做到绝对最佳，也会超过20小时，会需要28小时。而且那还是在他们着陆后获得像一级方程式赛车那样的燃料喷射时。也要28小时。这是从加利福尼亚到澳大利亚，30分钟。所以也许是35分钟，你知道，稍微向上取整，你知道，多出5分钟的事情。但重点是，它，它超过一个，它是什么，你可以使用。商业客机每使用1次，这套系统可以使用10次。什么？哇。就像，那，那是，那真是一个相当惊人的发现。那么你的资本成本就比飞机好10倍，前提是我们真正实现了无需翻修的快速再次飞行。我也非常有信心，就地球到地球的业务而言，这是可以实现的。因为加热并不。并没有疯狂到那种程度，与从火星或太阳系中更遥远的某个地方渲染回来相比，这种加热很温和。而且我们还使用地球上最便宜的燃料来源，也就是液态甲烷。所以燃料超级便宜。它的 of 比率是3.5，因此每1吨甲烷对应3吨半氧气。甲烷超级便宜。LOX 几乎免费，或者说成本非常低。lux 每公斤大约只要5美分、4美分，也许可能是3美分。它就是你压缩并液化、再去掉氮气的空气。事实上，如果你问大多数人，你现在呼吸的是什么？他们会说氧气。其实不是，你吸入的主要是氮气。是的。然后试着解释火箭，看看会发生什么。不管怎样，这会是一套相当不可思议的系统。那还只是第1版。只是第1版。是不是令人惊叹？就像，哇，太漂亮了。而且，是的，我们真的会做到那件事。他们真的会做到那件事。是的。哇。是的。我的脑子有点被震撼到了，所以我很难说话。我还有几张幻灯片要讲。我知道这已经拖得很长了。我们会。所以我们会快速讲完剩下的幻灯片。材料实在太多了。正在完成的事情如此之多，取得的成果如此之多。我从未对公司的未来感觉如此良好。潜力简直令人彻底震撼。是的。我的意思是，我以前说过很多次，但能与你们一起工作是我的荣幸。谢谢你们为促成这一切所做的工作。我知道这真的很难。你知道，有时如果你在想，为什么自己要工作到很晚，或牺牲这个、那个或其他东西。只要记住我们正在努力做什么。这真的很重要。真的很重要。优先事项。与往常一样，可靠性排在第1位。我们已经有了这项认证。这些都是非常重要的事情。在被炸成碎片后恢复40号发射台。Falcon Heavy。是的，你们都能读。不过，也许这张幻灯片上值得注意的事情，值得注意的重要事情，是清单最底部、优先级最低的项目。那就是 bfr。所以如果拿不准，其他所有那些事情实际上都比 BFR 工作拥有更高的优先级。因为如果我们不做那些事情。就不会有 bfr。我们必须做那些事情。这就是。在冒险游戏里，你必须先完成这些任务。让我用真正的书呆子语言来说。如果你在玩《龙与地下城》，而我以前玩过很多，那么我们必须先完成支线任务，之后才能进行最后的终极头目战。是的，正如我提到的，每一笔支出都很重要。哪怕只是0.50美元，或50,000美元，或500,000美元，加起来都会变多。因此，我们花每一分钱时都要非常节俭，因为我们必须让收入和成本之间的差额尽可能大，才能开发，才能支付 BFR 和卫星星座的开发费用。这些是，你知道，我认为，SpaceX 的一些价值观。嗯，我的意思是，我不知道自己是否完全认同这些，但物理学，拜托。不过，是的，只要专注于使命。永远记住这一点。更长期的使命是什么？我们的使命是彻底改变太空飞行，让生命实现多行星化，提高人类文明可能延续的寿命，并创造某种能让世界各地的人们醒来时感到鼓舞的东西。能让人们受到鼓舞的事情太少了，太少了。当你阅读新闻时，尽是一件又一件糟糕透顶的事。有多少事情能鼓舞你，真正让你想要活下去？这是其中之一，我认为是最好的一个。是的，关于最后一点，我不知道。那是更聪明地工作很长时间。事实是，我们需要聪明且长时间地工作。我们确实需要穿得聪明且长久，但不能达到把你烤焦的程度。它必须是马拉松级别，而不是短跑级别。没人能以冲刺速度跑完整个马拉松的长度。你会直接死掉。所以实际上，确实要聪明地工作、努力工作，但速度不能让你的大脑被油炸。是的，你知道，但现实是，我们正努力殖民其他行星，建设一整套革命性的地球到地球运输系统，并提供全球互联网。无论你多么聪明，这都不可能靠每周工作40小时实现。不可能靠每周工作40小时实现。绝无可能。

关于更聪明地工作，关键在于：如果有什么愚蠢的东西挡着你的路，有什么愚蠢的规定，或者有什么事情妨碍你做到最好——而做到最好其实正是最好的工作方式，因为这让人兴奋，也让你感到有成就感——但如果有什么东西在妨碍你，请告诉你的经理、主管或总监，也可以给我或埃隆发邮件。我们在这里就是要解决并清除那些挡你路的破事，让你能够出色地工作。是的，那就是我们的职责。

没错。我说要更聪明地工作。我同意。我认为布林说得对。比如，如果你发现自己正在做一件看起来真的毫无意义、效率低下，而且可能会出现在《呆伯特》漫画或《办公室》那部剧里的事情，那就像是：等一下，这听起来像邓德·米夫林。那是不对的。有什么地方出了问题。你绝对应该反抗这个体系，推动改变。搞什么。不要接受强加给你的愚蠢做法。反击任何看起来像是企业官僚主义的东西，它就像熵一样自然而然地发生。

All right. Congratulations on an awesome week. Two perfect flights and landings. Unbelievable. I think it was three days apart, basically. Well, okay, two, like four. Well, less than 72 hours. Whatever. It's like anyway. Buggy fast. Yeah. 40, 48 hours. Ish. Between flights. So that's. And they both work closely. Well. So yeah, this is a. Yeah. I don't know about you guys, but man, I felt real good after that one earlier this week. And does that make us. Are we 19 light landings?

18 landings. Sorry, 18 landings, yeah.

How many, how many landings? How many landings where the rocket doesn't subsequently explode? Okay, just 16. You mean 16.

Okay.

It's like posing it as a math riddle. I mean, like, so we've got 16 successful landings and counting and we're starting to make it seem like it's normal for rockets to land, which is fantastic because that's how it should be. I mean, this year has been a revolution in the state of rocketry. It's pretty damn incredible what you've accomplished. I think you should feel very, very proud. Never want to suggest complacency, of course, but you should feel very proud of yourself for getting SpaceX to this point where we've now made every other rocket look ridiculous. It's like if you had an aircraft company and like SpaceX was making aircraft and our aircraft took off and landed at your destination and all of the competitors had aircraft. Once you got over your landing spot, you jump out with a parachute and the plane would crash. You're like, man, that seems like a bit of a waste. So it's pretty amazing to see that happen now on a regular basis. Multiple Reef Loan rockets as well. Yeah. I mean, this is nuts. So we did more launches than China or Russia or Europe or the rest of the US combined.

Already.

Yeah, already. I have to tell you, if I was at one of these competitors, I would be polishing my resume right now.

So.

But again, don't want to get too cocky. Don't worry. Don't tempt fate in these situations. So they get very superstitious. Believe in anything. So, yeah, it's just incredible to see such a. I mean, and our rocket is. The shots of the rocket on ascent, I think are so beautiful. I mean it's one of the most beautiful pictures I've ever seen of anything. Weak in the knees. Weak in the knees. So we've launched now three flight proven boosters. Flight proven, yeah.

By the way, three was the important number for our pre flown customers going forward because the insurance community says after three successful, there's no difference in risk from their perspective. So,

Yeah, it's amazing how kind of sort of inverted the space industry is that you would think flying on a rocket that has never flown, never left the ground is somehow better than flying on a rocket that has completed, successfully completed an entire mission without any damage. Like, wait, like if we again go back to the aircraft thing, an aircraft rolls out of the factory, do you want to be the first one to fly it? No way. That's crazy. It's like gentle. Some very experienced test pilot will gently fly it around the airfield multiple times, increase speed and altitude and then each time, long way they'll have things they need to fix. And that's actually how rockets should work too. It should be like, hell, no, I don't want to be on the initial flight of a rocket. How do I know it works? That's because you get to the flight proven ones.

We need some music.

Yeah, we need to. Where's the music you want to sing? I'll play for my iPhone. I'm actually going to play for my iPhone.

We'll have to redo the video.

Yeah, let's.

Can we redo the video? We're going to play it with some music. It.

What are you expecting that?

Will you.

My wild desire I fell into a ring of fire I fell into a burning ring of fire I went down. It is doing bad. And the flames went higher and it burns, burns, burns. The ring of fire. The ring. I mean, Johnny Cash's predictions as a futurist are amazing. How did he know? How did he know? How did he know? I fell into a burning ring of fire. Got.

It's still going.

Oh, excuse me. Quiet. Like literally pressing me off. It won't go off. Okay, there you go. So CRS 12 was the last new Dragon space path, Dragon 1. Yep. So that, that's. Yeah, that's. That's really the end of a, of a great initial build era. So obviously you can fly several, several more times to Dragon 1, but it means we can shut down. Shut down or we can reallocate resources away from that at this point. Right.

So.

Well, there's refurb.

There's refurb.

Right, Refurb.

But.

Yep.

Yeah. So in fact, Dragon reuse has really not got much awareness and I think that's something we need to educate the public on as well. So if you look at an F9 Dragon stack, a massive percentage of that system is reusable, obviously the booster, which is. Call it 70% of the. Sorry, I want to. I'm like Swallowing my words. And I want to try to enunciate the word. Sorry. I got almost no sleep last night. I was like, brain stopped, not working probably. Yeah. So that version one of Dragon has done incredible duty. I'd just like to. Let's just give it a hand to Dragon.

Dragon 1.

I mean, we designed that thing. When we designed Dragon 1, we had no idea what we were doing. Like, just. And so it worked. And it works so far. It's worked perfectly. Again, touch wood. I mean, it's just incredible track record. Also flown, done a reflowing Dragon. And so the keys obviously, for. What really matters for reflight is are we able to do rapid and Rapid and complete reflight. Rapid and reflight, where there's no refurb. That's the aspiration. So. Because obviously we have the example of the shuttle, which was semi reusable except for the primary launch structure, which was the. The thing took the loads, the big orange tank, all the rest of it was in theory reusable, but none of it was reusable quickly or inexpensively. And so the shuttle ended up costing more than an expendable vehicle with the same payload capability. And that actually stopped a lot of people from trying to create reusable rockets because they would look at the shuttle as a. As a case example of why reusability doesn't work. But that's a sample size of one. Okay. It's like not. Doesn't mean anything. But certainly something that's going to be very important for us to realize the fruits of the reuse is to have that reuse be as economically efficient as possible and as rapid as possible without affecting reliability.

Just like an airplane.

Yeah, exactly. BFR is literally going to have. Is literally designed from the beginning to have dispatch capabilities that are equivalent to or better than a 747. So particularly for the boost stage, the boost stage is going to come back and land on the pad. You can basically do a boost stage launch of BFR every hour if you wanted to. 24 launches a day, maybe even more than that. So. That's when I say we're aiming for aircraft like reusability. It's exactly what I mean. As you guys know me, there's never a need to read between the lines. Just read the lines now. You know, you've got the. There's like so much. There's so much good stuff.

Yeah.

To go through.

And this is only part of it, obviously.

Yeah, yeah, exactly. What if there's anything you want to say? Do you have a mic or I have a mic. Oh, you do?

I have a mic. I'm doing color commentary.

Okay, great. Perfect. Yes. Mystery Science Theater 3000. There's a node reference of node references. So the tie group bins, which are pretty fantastic looking and they seem to work really well, dramatically increase our control capability on reentry. These are obviously critical for the Falcon Heavy, particularly the side boosters. So that's worked out pretty well. But I think this is the largest titanium casting in the United States or maybe in the world. Do we know that or.

Yes.

Which. Earth or Earth. Earth in the world. Okay. So, wow, that's just. It's like. Yeah. Way better than the world's biggest pumpkin. That's like world biggest tie forging or tie casting. And far better for usability since it does not need the, you know, all the little cork strips applied all over the place that catch on fire and make it look like the grid fin is burning and it's not going to and the rocket's going to crash, which is what it looked like last time. Falcon Heavy coming together. This will be exciting.

Understatement.

Yes. So, yeah, for Falcon Heavy launches, it'll be the largest and most powerful. Well, the most powerful and I guess highest payload to orbit of any rocket since Saturn V, if it reaches orbit. So Saturn Vampire, put that on, may it reach over, please.

Do you have wood?

I mean, it's sort of a vinyl coating.

Does that count?

Okay, we're screwed then. Just because this was vinyl, we need

a wood table next time.

So.

We didn't practice this, by the way. It's a comedy routine. It's all extemporaneous.

Yeah, yeah. This is Tuesday night. Open mic night's Friday. Friday open mic night, yeah. So Falcon Heavy awesomeness, this is incredibly spectacular. You've got three times the thrust, three times the thrust of a Falcon 9. So we're talking about five million pounds of thrust at liftoff. Five million. Saturn V was only seven and a half. So Falcon Heavy would be two thirds of the thrust of a Saturn V. It's really mind blowingly large amount of thrust and with a payload capability that is certainly in full expendable mode is twice that of the more than twice that of the next best rocket. In fully apples to apples comparison and with reusability, it still is the highest payload to orbit, I believe of any rocket to leo. Is that. Am I just saying something that's completely untrue or is that a no?

I think that's true.

Okay. Yeah, good. If it's not the highest, it's Very, very close. Particularly if you land the boosters downrange, you should still be able to recapture all three boosters, get the fairing, and then the only thing that you're not recovering is the interstage, sorry, the upper stage. So then the percentage of the vehicle that is reused is extremely high for a Falcon Heavy flight. Assuming all three cores come back and the fairing comes back, you're talking about a reusability percentage that's above 90. So it's like. That's really crazy. Yeah, So, yeah, so that's pretty huge progress on all fronts. I mean, these are literally these things that are coming up, the most exciting things on Earth period. Like, it's like, what else is going to happen if Falcon Heavy is going to launch in December or January? October.

Let's hope for December.

Aspirationally. December. Yeah, we're aiming for December for Falcon Heavy launch. But like, it'll be the coolest thing in the world that happens in December. Or if it's January in January in all of Earth. That's what you're working on. You're working on the most interesting thing on Earth. Trying to get beyond Earth. We don't know what's out there, but for sure, on Earth it is. You're literally working on the most exciting thing. And yeah, so

another exciting thing.

It's going to have a really cool payload in those cones. So I really hope this thing doesn't blow up anyway. All right,

happy to talk. Okay, so the Crew Demo 1 spacecraft is completing a completed integration mate. It's in the clean room for final integration. Incredibly exciting. Like if Falcon Heavy is the most exciting thing in December or January, this is the next most exciting thing, I think.

Yeah, absolutely. Well, when Dragon 2 flies, it'll be first flight of Dragon 2 will again be the most exciting thing that happened on Earth for at least several weeks around it. So I don't know of anything that would be more aliens landing, you know, I don't know. But Dragon 2 is all about restoring the United States ability to transport astronauts to low Earth orbit and not be dependent on the Russians or the mercy of Putin, which is a very small thing. I mean, there hopefully. But he's charged the Soyuz seat prices started off at $20 million a piece. Now they're 80 million. 80 million per seat on Soyuz.

I bet they'll go down after we fly.

Yeah. Competition is a beautiful thing.

Yep.

Ferrying 2.0. I'm really excited about ferrying fairing 2. Obviously it's a huge improvement over fairing 1 in every way and also very well designed for reusability. So we're getting very close to recovering the fairing intact and achieving reusability on a fairing, because the fully counterfeit cost of that fairing is on the order of five or six million dollars. So every time we get that bearing back and we reuse it, provided the recovery and the reuse cost, the recovery and refurb costs are minimal, we would be saving upwards of $5 million per launch with a reuse bearing. And I think it's good to have sort of thought experiments to understand why is it worthwhile to do something. Well, imagine if there was a giant pallet of cash floating through down from space, and all you have to do is catch it and you will have a pallet of $5 million in cash floating through the sky. You can either let it sink to the bottom of the sea or wash up God knows where. Or catch it. I think we should catch it. But that will also be. Nobody's ever done that. Nobody's ever. Nobody's ever. I'm not sure even anyone's really even have proposed that idea, have they? I don't know, maybe some in some obscure location it was even proposed, but I've never heard of it being proposed, even proposed, let alone getting done. So that'll be really cool. There's garrett.

Hey, it's garrett on the left,

I think. Looking pretty good, actually.

And suny on the right.

Yep, I see. Yeah. So I think we've got a pretty sweet looking. This is definitely the best looking spacesuit I've ever seen. Like, yeah, I think it's better than most. I mean, you're hard pressed to think of a movie spacesuit that's better. And those don't actually work. They're just like, you know, they don't actually work at all. But this looks good and it works. And it's a good basis for us to create an EVA suit so people can go outside in space. And a Mars suit that's comfortable, looks decent, and you can like, you know, go for a hike around Mars in your Mars suit. So we'll be making many variants of these suits with increasing levels of sophistication. I mean, have you seen the other space suits out there? It's like, man, like, one of the key things about what we're trying to do here is get kids who are trying to make a career decision to make a career decision in favor of space. And one of the things that has kind of really like a limbic resonance with people is if they see a spacesuit that looks awesome. And we want that like limbic system response to be. I want to wear that spacesuit one day. That's the reason to make it why it actually matters. To make it look super cool is to convince real smart kids coming out of college don't go work on Wall street and have your soul slowly drain from you. You can you know, work on rockets and maybe wear that spacesuit one day and help make life multi planetary. It still blows my mind. Like I was having a conversation just a few days ago with like someone, they're like well why do you care about Mars? Like or going anywhere away from Earth. I'm like what? What are you talking about? Of course. Don't you want a future where we're a space faring civilization and a multi planet species isn't that vastly more exciting? Vastly. I mean it's incomparably better than being a single planet species that's just going to sit around and sort of we will war with each other and eventually the civilization will collapse through some natural man made thing. That's what happens to one planet civilizations. But eventually it happens to multi planet civilizations too. But they might go for 100 million years, you know, so the first human writing is less than 10,000 years old. That's nothing. So anyway, trying to make the future good for humanity, make sure that there's an insurance policy for life itself and. But I think really in terms of getting people fired up, certainly what gets me fired up is that it makes the future exciting and you want to look forward to the future. You wake up in the morning, it's like yes, we're going to Mars. You know, going beyond, even beyond Mars, we'll go to Ceres, we'll go to the moons of Jupiter and sort of, you know, planet and moon hop all the way out of the solar system. Like damn, damn.

We've got some charts here on Texas and what they've been able to achieve as far as improving rate and making things easier, all so that they can focus on even more exciting things.

Yeah, so we're really running a lot of Block 5 engines. Like firing engines become routine and then hopefully we'll be moving soon to we just put the to integrated stage testing so the engines do not get fired individually. We just mount the engines here in Hawthorne, send it to Texas, static fire proof the tank and instead of like saying things back and forth all the time and reintegrating things here, which is like the logistical nightmare, particularly as our launch rate increases. So yeah, Things are feel like they're going great in Texas. And yeah, We have static fire for all. The Draco thrust is complete. Yeah, those things have worked out pretty well. And then Raptor feels like it should have some sound too. Yeah, it's whisper quiet. This engine could hear a pin drop. It was a very large pin. Still going. This is not a loop. This is actually the engine still going. Still going. Yeah. All right. So yeah, Congratulations to the Raptor team for developing an engine that has gone through 1200 seconds of firing 42 main engine tests and has not blown up. Like let me tell you, in the early days of Merlin, which is a far less sophisticated engine than Raptor, it blew up a lot in the beginning. We're like yay, it's still there. You have some launch anomaly or a fire. So this is a fire, that's no problem. If it's like tiny pieces of shrapnel, then that happened quite a lot. And most engine development programs, in fact there might not be a single engine development program where they managed to get this much out of an initial dev engine. The space shuttle main engine developments, they would vaporize those engines constantly. And we're at roughly 200 bar pressure in the chamber. So it's very high pressure system. And the flight design will be a step beyond the this development unit. It'll be lighter, more capable in terms of throttling, end up having crazy high thrust weight. It's going to have 250 bar chamber pressure. And then over time I think we'll be able to inch that up to 300 bars which are really incredible. And then there'll be Raptor 1, Raptor 2, Raptor 3 and with BFR and BFS we're making version one, there'll be version two, version three. So if you don't. Only a tiny portion of the company is working on BFR and Raptor. That's sort of just like, sort of like an advanced scouting mission. And then as we are able to ramp down our engineering time on Falcon and Dragon and free up production resources, then we'll gradually move, I don't know, probably 70, 80% of the company towards the BFR system. But if it feels like, well, maybe I'm getting left out of all the cool BFR stuff, don't worry about it because there'll be BFR9 or 9 version 9 that's confusing with Falcon 9, but there'll be many versions of many, many versions of VFR as far into the future as we can imagine. And yeah, people think that the size of VFR version 1 is big. You should see what it looks like when you say now let's really optimize the cost per ton to the surface of Mars. You start looking at like 1000-1500 metric tons of payload to the surface of Mars as opposed to 100 tons with version 1. So either VFR version 2 or BFR version 3 would be aiming for an order of magnitude increase in payload To Mars over BFR1. I think you need. BFR1 is, I think it's the exact right place to start because it's not too big, that it's unwieldy for satellite launches. So it's small enough to be really solid for Earth satellite launchers and give customers a bigger fairing, 9 meter diameter fairing. So you could conceivably put for example like an 8 meter diameter dish or have the, if you want to launch like Super Hubble that had order of magnitude more resolution, you could do that with vfr obviously launching our own communication satellites, launching dodo intel satellites, science satellites. And if you saw my presentation in Adelaide, which I did after a really insane amount of jet lag and realizing I am not a spring chicken, I am like a late summer, early fall chicken, can I just shake off the jet lag that easy? But I think I got some of the key points across and I think one of the most mind blowing things there is that the cost per flight of BFR as a fully reusable system is less than the cost per flight of Falcon 1. Like that's mind blowing. But when you think about it, actually that makes total sense because if you wanted to charter a 747 round trip from California to Australia, it's half a million dollars. So round trip, you have the entire 747 to yourself there and back. Half a million dollars. If you wanted to buy a new, a single engine turboprop plane, it's at least one and a half million dollars. And it can't even reach Australia. And you're like can't reach Hawaii, you'll be like having to bail out and swim the rest of the way. So you can see these. It really makes sense. Like of course, something with high reusability like 747, even though it's a gigantic aircraft or an A380 or pick one gigantic aircraft. Cost per mission is less than tiny expendable aircraft. Like three times higher, four times higher, Not a little bit different. Yeah, so it's pretty crazy. That's how significant reusability is. I Find this something that we really have to always be reminding ourselves of is we want rapid and complete reusability. We do not even want to do a paint. We don't even want to paint the rocket between flights like we did that with a commercial airliner and painted like a south repainted Southwest Airlines flight flight every time it landed. Well, I don't know, you'd need a day or something. So then you can go from southwest doing say eight to ten flights a day on a 737 going back and forth to San Francisco to one. They just dropped the value of it by an order of magnitude. And all you did was paint the plane with some very quick drying plane if it's only a day. So again, really need to keep reminding ourselves of the utter importance of rapid and complete reusability. And congratulations to the satellite team for getting Tintin. I think Tintin is almost ready to ship. It's planning to fly in December. There's an amazing amount of technology in Tinson and yeah, it'll be the first SpaceX satellite. Now the satellite stuff I'm always a little reluctant to talk about because it generates like headlines and stuff. And really we just need on satellite stuff to be real quiet, sort of heads down, get the technology done, get it up there, get at least 400 so that we can start turning on satellite broadband in many places of the world. And the satellite stuff is actually what's going to enable us to take our revenue stream from, call it 3 to 4 billion a year. Currently we're about a $2 billion year run rate as we win more business, more NASA business, more DoD intel business, you know, but as you, and then, and then a private crew. So private crew, private astronauts that want to either go to space station or do a loop around the moon. That's maybe another half billion a year or something like that. But if you just think of all of the launch, all of the things you can do with launch in a conventional way, really tap out. Maximum 4 billion, but probably closer to 3, 3.5 billion. So still a significant increase from where we are now. But the satellite Internet is what will allow us to get to $30 billion a year in revenue. So the satellite stuff is going to be extremely important, extremely important because with that kind of cash flow we could, we can actually build that base on Mars. Even if no one helped us. And they will, there will be people who want to help us in the private sector, public sector. I really hope, I hope NASA, you know, dream scenario would be that NASA issues something like for the. Something just like the original cargo resupply, you know, the cargo carts, where it was like multiple competitors, you bet a fixed price with milestones. And if you don't meet your milestones, you get fired and they recompute the remaining money to someone else. So in the beginning it was SpaceX and Rocket Plane Kistler. Rocket Plane Kistler, no surprise, did not meet their milestones. But then Orbital stepped in and they did. So that would be really cool to have something where it's outcome based. There are clear milestones, but it also doesn't have a ton of onerous sort of bureaucracy that impedes progress. Yeah, cost for Mars. Yeah, it's cost for Mars. That worked out really good with, particularly with the progress side of things.

But big aerospace companies don't want that program.

Yeah.

So it's a big fight.

That means they have to like work hard. I don't like that. Like situations where losing is not possible. All right, so we've made great progress on refurbishment facility. We have something I really personally can't wait to have active is the SpaceX boundary. So we're going to actually, we're actually building our own foundry where we can make advanced materials of any type with a very short lead time. So instead of being at the mercy of casting suppliers which will charge us huge amounts of money and take ages and deliver a mediocre result that has generally been. There might be one rare casting supplier that I've never heard of who does that, but otherwise all casting suppliers are super long time, crazy money and mediocre outcome. So having our own foundry here, we think we can cut that iteration by at least an order of magnitude. So you could design a part, get the tooling fab and cast it and have that part done inside of a month and long term inside of a week. Yeah, so that's a. I don't know if. Is Charlie coming somewhere?

He's over there.

Hey, do you want to say a few words about the foundry? Yeah, it's like 15 years of. 15 years of being in casting supplier health where we've been. So it's like it might be nice to finally exit that.

Exactly. So, yeah, we've had lots of people working on putting together all the plans for the foundry and the really great news is it's kind of bringing together the materials team we started here a couple years ago, as well as all the production folks and talking about that. But we're going to be able to do everything in house from basically CAD drawing to having the final Part going onto the rockets or most of them is going to be on the engines components.

I mean, the thing that you described to me was. I mean, actually I found it hard to believe, but I think it is. There's nothing in physics that says it can't be true. But what do you think? Obviously not right at the beginning, but let's say we go forward two years from now, half ass from you get the part design to somebody has a product that can fly.

Right. So in terms of the actual touch times we need, it's probably about a week. So I said it. Yeah. So part of that. Part of that is you can get

a tattoo

one week. One week, yeah. So everybody knows what the goal is. A big part of that is being able to simulate what we need to do. Because a lot of the industry uses a ton of trial and error. And one of the benefits we have is a lot of understanding. We can actually simulate how the casting actually works so we don't have to make a whole bunch of molds and then do it over again. So we get to make the mold right away and we can print the mold. Nowadays, we don't make it out of wax. We make it out of printed plastic. And then we have some really cool robotic machines that can basically shell that mold in just a day today. Usually that takes weeks and weeks at traditional suppliers.

Months. Months.

Yeah, yeah. And then again, they screw it up and have to do it all over again. So the casting part actually is really slow or really fast. It just, you know, you melt and pour it in a few minutes and it's going to be really cool looking. So I want all you guys to come by and take a look. When we get the casting fac facility going, it's pretty cool to have lots of molten metal flown around.

I think it'd be cool to just say, like, just sort of test ourselves, to say, how fast could it be done? In theory, from CAD design to here's your finished cast part. That's flyable. The actual just in. I think physics will allow us to do this in a day.

Yeah, we can actually do all the physical things in a day.

Half a day. 12 seconds. This is like, it's a subtle thing that many people who have not been exposed to the terribleness that is the casting supply chain will realize this will literally be the most advanced and most capable foundry, I think, anywhere, anywhere on earth. Yeah, Yeah. I mean, you know, the foundries and

I've been in all of them.

So this is going to be the most advanced.

Oh, yeah.

Okay, yeah. So there we go. This is like a huge, this is like an amazing, like, you know, it's amazing. A sort of hidden ace. To have the two requirements you gave me with, it had to be the most advanced foundry and it had to

be five minutes from the desk, so.

Yeah, exactly. So I can go see it, no problem. So it's going to be just like five minutes that way. Yep. So yeah, I'm super excited about the foundry and being able to iterate rapidly on advanced metallurgy and for production.

And as an example, we're designing a very custom alloy for Raptors that's going to be going in, we'll be passing it in our own foundry. It's going to be awesome.

So yeah, all right, well, I'll just say I'll repeat those words. So the Raptor, particularly on the, on the ox pump side has to have a very oxidation resistant metal. Otherwise if you have, you know, high pressure hot pure ox or very oxy rich gas, it will want to combust almost anything. So and, but it's also got to hold high pressure. And so we've been working on an alloy to achieve that. I think we're at least in version 2, maybe 3 of the alloy. Yeah, yeah. So anyway, that foundry is going to be an amazing superpower that SpaceX possesses that no one else does anywhere. So. Yeah. And then we finally acquired a company. SpaceX's entire existence has grown organically. Most companies grow through acquisitions like the vast neuro. The growth is acquisitions. Ours has been entirely organic, with one tiny exception being EDM Express. Because I kept asking, there's gotta be some companies out there that we'd like to acquire. And acid test being is if we interviewed those engineers, or at least a large number of those people for SpaceX that we would hire them. And so we found one in EDM Express so that they're now part of SpaceX. Right. So far so good on 2017 launch manifest. So we have five launches to go, which would take us to, yeah, 20 launches for the year, pretty incredible. And then next year we'll be doing probably 30 launches. There's 27 slated right now, but I think there's probably some other launches that will answer that period of time. So they call it like approximating 30 launches in 2018. Once we start launching our own Constellation, we'll be using even in the beginning, probably 15 to 20 Falcon 9 flights a year. So we'll be doing a launch a

week

probably in the 2019, probably mid-2019. We'll be approaching a cadence of one launch every seven days. Which means some launches will be just a day apart or even same day because it's not evenly spread. So if you think it's crazy now, stay tuned for this crazy train is going on as a long journey. And then when we get to, when we start flying, VFR is like the booster is intended to do 1000 flights a year, at least per year, not lifetime per year. I'll try to make that change as close as with the expectation between flights of zero refurb, literally zero. Now there will be scheduled maintenance. So just like jets, you know, jets have scheduled maintenance, scheduled inspections and that kind of thing, we're going to do the same thing with bfr. In fact we're going to be using the same, a lot of the same rules and regulations that apply to commercial airliner aircraft which are incredibly reliable. And yeah, we'll be doing probably more than a thousand long term, maybe more than a thousand launches of the booster and then each that the VUSA would fly to orbit initially with the bfs. And then I still feel a little nervous saying those words in front of sometimes a conservative. Not you guys, but when I'm there with the Vice President, I just had a small meeting with the Vice President and he was talking about bfr. I'm like wow, big Falcon. Yeah, it sure is. Definitely. But if you just do the basic math of what does it take to create a self sustaining city on Mars. We're going to have to be launching something down the road. Something on the order of. It's at least it's not 10 bfs that's, that's way too tiny. And it's, it's probably not a hundred. That's still probably too tiny. It's probably on the order of a thousand VFs, you know, big freaking spaceship like, like Battlestar Galactica like friggin migrating to Mars on, with every rendezvous, something on the order of a thousand because that's what you need to create a viable civilization. You could do it slower if you had something on the order of 100, but it's definitely not less than 100. And then for every ship flight the booster is going to probably fly five to seven times with most, with all of those flights except for the ship being on the tank being a tanker. So this enormous beast of a booster is going to be going up and down like an elevator. Several times. Yeah, several, several times a day. I'm highly confident, I am certain we can do this. Certain. No doubt the path may be bumpy along the way, but the physics is right. I think we've got a design for the ship and for the booster that I think is pretty damn great, particularly for version one. So we're going to try and knock that sucker out as fast as possible and get it flying. And yeah, the future's like, it's like my mind sort of blown. Has blown several times. You know, just like thinking about this, wow, how can this be real? But it is, it's real. Yeah. Yeah. So. And like I said, I think there's a good chance there's more than that in 2018. Yeah. And then next year obviously launching the first American astronaut crew since the shuttle retired in a US vehicle. Shuttle's last flight was what was that, like 6, 2011. Yeah, six years ago. So next year it'll be seven years, a seven year gap since the United States was able to put astronauts into orbit with a U.S. vehicle. And that's really, that's gonna be, I mean that's gonna be super next level. Like all of Earth will be tuned in for that launch. Like basically Earth. Some. More than a billion people will watch that launch. Yeah. Very important to get it right. Yeah, that's going to be a high pocket factor day unavoidably should be. So Gwen, this especially is something that you should be talking about. I've had almost no exposure to this.

So we are doing pretty well on sales, both commercial and government. The commercial market for geo satellites has come down, unfortunately not our fault. But interestingly, people that want to fly in Dragon. So private crew has increased pretty dramatically. We're actually working on three separate private crew missions, which is really exciting. Actually. Four. Four separate private crew missions. We did sell over 100 launches in our history very recently with $12 billion in contract both passed. And moving forward, also a third of our missions right now. We just flew three and I said that was the critical number for customers to convert. A third of our missions going forward were all in pre flown. I think by late next year it'll be 50% and then I think in 2019 it just won't be part of the conversation. It'll just be a rocket. Sometimes it's new, sometimes it's been flown before. It doesn't matter.

It'll be normal.

It'll be normal. Yeah. No one will even ask. I already talked about private astronaut missions. We are competing right now for six national security space missions, three GPSs and three actually they're Falcon Heavy launches. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that we're going to win the three GPS launches because those are on Falcon 9s. But the heavy missions are going to be tough for us to win. But still, I'm hoping we get at least one of those three and we'll find out starting in December through March or so of next year. So definitely on the government side, they're starting to rely more heavily on us.

Absolutely. And I do want to emphasize like the Falcon Heavy missions are really important. Those are very high dollar value missions. Like they bring in a ton of revenue for SpaceX because we're competing against like, you know, like a very big hog as a competitor, like real fat hog. So they're just pillaging the taxpayer right now. ULA is for a heavy class launch. You don't even know what want to know what that number is? It's like criminal. It's nuts. So this is something where we can offer the government and the taxpayer effectively a massive reduction in cost while still having it be a hugely positive cash flow for SpaceX. So it's a great win win situation. But we have to prove that Falcon Heavy works because they. Look at one point I was thinking, should we call it the Falcon 27? Because that would continue the naming convention with respect to boost engines. But that sounded a bit scary. So Falcon Heavy, that fooled no one. So I want to just be clear. Falcon Heavy is not an afterthought or something that is of low importance. It's actually very important and probably has in excess of a billion dollar a year revenue or something like that. At least a billion. It could be more for Falcon Heavy launches which if we didn't have Falcon Heavy we would not be able to access.

Is that it's a little high, but it could be.

Yeah. But compared to what they pay for, like, yeah. Save more than a billion. Yeah. Delta 4 heavy is like 800 million something. Nuts. All right. They won't say it's like, you know, like trying to buy some, something, some rugged flea market or something. It's like they won't say what the price is because they want everything to be negotiated. But what we hear is that Delta 4 Heavy is something on the order of $800 million a flight. That is. And that's if they fly every year and if it's higher, if they don't.

Half a billion.

Oh, half a billion. Oh, it just gets better. This is like good from the sense of like this is not going to be hard to compete with, but sad because of the enormous amount of tax dollars that are being torched with a rocket with Delta 4 Heavy being $800 million if it launches every year, which it's not currently stated to do, and 1.3 billion if it launches every two years. That's like, we're like less than the number after the decimal point with more capability. Yeah. So. We do want to watch our cost growth though, as we get. It's amazing how costs expand to fully available volume. And I do think at times we've been a little cavalier about cost and. But it's always important to remember that the money we have to help make life multi planetary, which is the fundamental goal of the company, the fundamental goodness that we're trying to, the great goodness that we're trying to help make happen is very much dependent on how much revenue do we get minus how much cost do we incur. We want that to be a big gap so that we can apply that difference to Mars colonization and doing a lunar base and other things. I'll come around to the lunar base thing. I think it's like we should have a lunar base, but it's got to be like a permanently occupated base. It's sort of like we've got a base in Antarctica and we should have a base on the moon and then just go anywhere in the solar system. Homework. This, this chores, this chores. The. I don't. First I'd like to say thank you and express deep appreciation for going through the certification process. I know that is very often boring and painful, but it is necessary, it's absolutely necessary in order for us to achieve the Mars goal. So sometimes you think if you're working on some government certification thing and it seems like it's really frustrating, you just remember that what you're doing is important. It's vital to the future. We cannot succeed without that certification. Yeah, Yeah. That clap was for all the people taking the pain of which there was light. So this is a sweet machine. It looks amazing. Like I really feel good about, I really feel good about this design. It's so far, it's so far in advance of anything that has ever been proposed. It's just not even comparable really. We're talking about something here which is designed to be able to operate in, to be able to land on planets with or moons with no atmosphere, a thin atmosphere, a thick atmosphere, to be able to do point to point flights on Earth, which actually the general public is more excited about than going to other planets. They're just like Earth, 99% plus people. They would actually see the value of all of SpaceX's value being in Earth point to point Earth, because that's the thing they'll use because they want to leave the comfy environment of Earth. So I think that the long distance Earth to Earth stuff is actually going to end up being a real big thing. I mean, if you could say take sort of a fast hydrofoil out to a floating platform off of, you know, out in the ocean of LA, you could get there in 15, 20 minutes with something that's doing, you know, 50, 60 knots. Like they have these ferries between Hong Kong and Macau that operate at that speed real smooth and process customs while you're on the ship. So you just get on the ship, process customs, have your bags in stowage, so you get rid of the whole airport thing. Because airports are real hell. So effectively, because we weren't using the whole airport infrastructure, we sidestep that with basically just big drone ships. We scale up the drone ship situation. We're getting really good at that. And so you could be like a 15 minute, maybe 20 minute boat ride, embark and then half an hour flight from, maybe 35, 40 minute flight from LA to London or Paris. So it's really nice. We know this, but most people don't that anything in low Earth orbit is circling the Earth every 90 minutes. So it's going around the Earth several times a day. Which means a system like this, you could actually cover all of those hops with one vehicle in a day. You could literally bounce. And most at that time it's going to be on the launch pad getting refueled or refilled, I should say. And the economic, I'm actually feeling pretty optimistic about the economics of Earth to Earth transport for a couple of reasons. One is that because it's moving so fast, you can get 10 times as much use out of it as an airliner. So if you go for LA to Sydney, it's about a 14 hour flight. You can't even do a round trip in. Even if they did their absolute best, it would take more than 20, it would take 28 hours. And that's if they land and they get like Formula One style fuel injection. It's 28 hours. This is California to Australia, 30 minutes. So maybe 35, you know, round up a little, you know, extra five minutes of matter. But the point is that it's, it's more than a, it's what it's, you can use. You can use this system 10 times for every one use of a commercial airliner. Like what? Wow. Like that, that's, that was, that's quite a revelation. So your capital cost is then 10 times better than an aircraft, provided we have truly achieved rapid reflight without refurbishment. Which also I'm highly confident can be done for Earth. Earth stuff. Because the heating is not. Is not so crazy that the heating is mild compared to rendering from like Mars or someplace further out in the solar system. And then we're also using the cheapest source fuel that exists on Earth, which is liquid methane. So super cheap fuel. It's an of ratio of 3.5, so it's three and a half tons of oxygen for every one ton of methane. Methane's super cheap. LOX is practically free or very low cost. You can get lux for like 5 cents a kilogram, 4 cents a kilogram, probably maybe 3 cents. It's just air that you compress and liquefy and minus the nitrogen. Actually if you ask most people what are you breathing right now? They would say oxygen. It's like, no, you're mostly breathing nitrogen. Yeah. Then try explaining rockets and see what happens. Anyway, this is going to be a pretty incredible system. That's just version one. It's just version one. Isn't that stunning? That's like, wow, that's so beautiful. And yeah, we are actually going to do that. They're actually going to do that. Yeah. Wow. Yeah. My mind's kind of blown, so it's hard for me to talk. I still have a few more slides to go. I know this is running long. We'll. So we'll go through the rest of the slides quickly. There's just so much material. So much is being done, so much is being accomplished. I've never felt better about the future of the company. The potential is just utterly mind blowing. Yeah. I mean, and that's what I've said this before many times, but it's an honor working with you. Thank you for what you're doing to make this happen. And I know it's real hard. You know, sometimes if you're wondering why are you working late or sacrificing this, that or the other thing. Just remember what we're trying to do. This really matters. It really matters. Priorities. As always, reliability is number one. We've got this certification. These are all really important things. Getting Pad 40 back afterwards, blowing smithereens. Falcon heavy. Yeah, you guys can read. But perhaps the thing worth noting on the slide, the important thing worth noting is what's at the bottom of the list as the lowest priority. It's bfr. So if in doubt, all those other things actually have a higher priority than BFR work. Because if we don't do those things. There will be no bfr. We must do those things. This is the. In the adventure game, you must first do these quests. Let me speak in true nerd. If you're playing Dungeons and Dragons, which I did a lot, Then we must complete the subquest before the big boss fight at the end. Yeah, as I mentioned, every bit of spending matters. Even if it's like $0.50 or $50,000 or $500,000, it all adds up. So we want to be really frugal with every penny we spend because we got to get that gap between revenue and cost to be as big as possible in order to develop, to be able to pay for the development of BFR and the satellite constellation. This is some of, you know, some SpaceX values, I think. Well, I mean, I don't know if I completely agree with these, but physics, please. But yeah, just focus on the mission. Always remember that. What is the longer term mission? Our mission is to revolutionize spaceflight, make life multi planetary, increase the probable lifespan of human civilization, and have something that people all around the world can wake up to and feel inspired. There are so few things, so few things that people can be inspired about. When you read the news, it's all like one terrible thing after another. How many things are inspiring that actually make you want to live? It's one of them best one, I think. Yeah, I don't know about that last point. It's working smarter a lot longer. The truth is we need to work smart and long. We do need to wear smart and long, but it can't be at a level where you get fried. It's got to be like marathon level, not sprint level. Nobody can sprint for a whole marathon length. You'll just die. So it's really, it is work smart and work hard, but at a rate that does not cause you to deep fry your brain. Yeah, you know, but the reality is like we're trying to colonize other planets, build a whole revolutionary earth to earth transport system and provide global Internet. This does not happen on a 40 hour week, no matter how smart you are. It does not happen on a 40 hour week. No way.

The key on the work smarter piece is if there's some stupid thing in your way, there's some dumb rule, or there's something that's getting in your way of doing the best work, which is actually the best way to do work because it's exciting and you feel like a sense of accomplishment. But if there's something getting in your way, please tell your manager your supervisor, your director, email me or Elon, we're here to fix and get rid of the shit that's in your way so that you can do great work. Yeah, that's our job.

Exactly. I say work smarter. I agree. I think what Bryn's saying is right. Like, if you find yourself doing something that seems really pointless and inefficient and could potentially be featured in a Dilbert cartoon or that show the Office, it's like, wait a second, this sounds like Dunder Mifflin. That's wrong. There's something messed up. You should definitely fight the system and push. What the. Do not accept the foolishness that you were given. Fight back at anything that seems like corporate bureaucracy is just happening, like entropy.