机器翻译,已尽力保留原意与数字
内容摘要
马斯克在摩根士丹利科技大会上讨论了他对将 Twitter/X 打造为支付应用的愿景、广告以及 Tesla。
Musk discusses his vision for Twitter/X as a payments app, advertising and Tesla at the Morgan Stanley tech conference.
中文实录Transcript
62 个段落
第 1 段
你会如何描述 Twitter 2 的使命?
第 2 段
0,在你的所有权之下,埃隆,所以,目标是让 Twitter 成为最好的真相来源,成为最及时、最准确的真相来源,呃,即便真相是我们不想听到的某个人、令人不快的或者其他什么,但要让它及时而准确,而且真正成为一个你可以真正了解正在发生什么的地方,而不只是,嗯,某件事是真是假,还包括叙事是什么。所以,我认为大多数人没有充分理解的一件事,可能你理解,但大多数人没有充分理解,就是媒体控制着叙事。因此,世界上有很多事情可以谈论,但只有少数事情能登上头版,但是 Twitter 没有那样的限制,所以公众可以控制叙事,公众可以让自己了解情况
第 3 段
了解叙事应该是什么,那,那是一件非常重大的事,所以这是一种所谓的公民新闻形式,或者说是让公众聚在一起,以一种过去从未可能实现的方式进行交流,嗯,这样你就能真正知道正在发生什么,呃,所以我,我认为,这对于一个正常运作的民主制度确实至关重要。那么,比如说,正常运作的民主制度的基石是什么,嗯,它,它必须是言论自由和公平的竞争环境,嗯,这就是为什么第一修正案是他们做的第一件事,就像我们大概认为,我们必须确保言论自由,嗯,而他们为什么要这么做,是因为他们来自的地方没有言论自由,而且一旦你失去言论自由,就无法重新得到它,所以这就是为什么我们必须不惜一切……
第 4 段
代价。谢谢你。关于你刚才讲到的那些核心原则,如果我们想这么称呼它们的话:公民新闻、人民的一部分、处于公平竞争环境中——这就是你所说的民主。我们也听你说过,核心原则是:真实、信息丰富、娱乐性、准确——你刚刚讲过了——以及品牌安全。嗯,你在这些方面进展如何?是的,我是说,我认为其中一些,嗯,你知道,有点相互冲突。你知道,我认为品牌安全真正的意思是,就广告展示的位置而言,广告主可以选择该广告附近是什么材料。所以,如果是某种,你知道,呃,如果是某种像火车事故或战争场景之类的内容,那么一个家庭友好型品牌可能不会想把广告放在紧挨着
第 5 段
它的位置,你知道,或者,你知道,不能是这种,嗯,这里是一个隐约的战争场景,你想买个汉堡吗,那样会很尴尬,你知道。嗯,所以这是可以理解的,你希望把广告放在有意义的内容旁边。嗯,但是,但总体而言,内容需要真实且信息丰富,即使它有争议或令人震惊。嗯,是的,而且我认为人们需要能够选择,你知道,在某种程度上,选择他们想让我们看到什么内容,当然在 Twitter 上你可以做到。所以,但实际上,我们希望它从根本上成为这样一个地方:你去那里了解正在发生什么,并获得真实的故事。那就是,真相、全部真相,而且它会比——我本想说只有真相——更多,那,那,那很难,它
第 6 段
会有很多胡说八道,真相以及更多,因为他们肯定会意识到这一点。嗯,但是,但是,但是你想要,你想要拥有真相,而且你想要,你想要让真相浮现出来,并且能够在某种程度上进行梳理,真正想要的是误差最小的真相。所以,所以你说过,嗯,你知道,Twitter 是鲜活的,另一种说法是,正如你刚才所说,它是新闻发生的地方。这里举几个例子:帕特里克·马霍姆斯和斯蒂芬·库里彼此交谈,蕾哈娜直接对她的粉丝讲话,嗯,或者在加密货币领域,SPF 和 CZ 直接在 Twitter 上进行对话。是的,山姆·沃尔顿,你知道,推出了 chat DPT,在 Twitter 上宣布了它。呃,保罗·格雷厄姆就此发了一条推文,你也在就此发推。呃,我想在此之前,那里出现了50 000条推文,
第 7 段
在最初几天里,主流媒体才报道它。是的,所以,你知道,跟我们谈谈媒体怎样才能赶上。如果他们在 Twitter 上,就能看到这些推文并发布它;如果他们不在 Twitter 上,是不是就没办法赶上?比如,传统媒体、公民新闻以及一个重要议题上的50 000条推文是如何交汇的,媒体又如何赶上?嗯,正如我确信你们许多人都在使用 Twitter,Twitter 上的一切都在实时发生。所以,如果你把它和报纸上发生的事情对比,他们必须获知信息,向编辑提议一篇文章,获得批准,撰写文章,让文章接受编辑,确定文章将在哪一天发表,然后
第 8 段
所以新闻,实际上发生的事情,是在,你知道,晚了3、4天,有时晚了1周才被报道。嗯,如果事情发生在周末,那就是,是的,至少3天之类的情况。所以,嗯,你知道,在主要出版物出现任何关于它的新闻文章之前,chat gbt 已经在 Twitter 上成为重大新闻好几天了。嗯,所以我认为,特别是如果一个人,呃,比如正在考虑投资某些东西,你会希望获得尽可能及时且准确的信息;就此而言,没有比 Twitter 更好的来源了。这当然一直是我的体验。嗯,所以保罗·格雷厄姆,他被称为科技界的传奇、Twitter 上的传奇人物,我想他发过推文,嗯,说他有80%偏左,如果必须把他放到这个尺度上的话。所以他不是一个,嗯,你知道,
第 9 段
并非没有被光谱各方认可和尊敬的人。他说过,你知道,这与你关于准确性的观点一致,嗯,他说过准确性有多么重要,而且他在 Twitter 上说,你知道,对于任何关于 Twitter 的新闻报道,你默认都应该持怀疑态度,并假定它默认是错的,因为不仅一些记者有自己的议程,消息来源也有自己的议程,而且太容易沿着不准确,或者,你知道,彻头彻尾的虚假这条链条走下去了。他、他、他说得对吗?嗯,而且,你知道,如果是这样,嗯,传统媒体究竟怎样才能准确报道 Twitter 和你,如果有可能的话?公关部门有帮助吗?呃,你知道,众所周知,你们没有公关部门。我,我,我,你知道,PR 的正确名称是宣传。嗯,而且我一直认为
第 10 段
你知道,比如,也许,也许我们应该设一个宣传副总裁,那会是,我只是,我认为这样更诚实,你知道。呃,而且,嗯,还要有一个巫术PC,就是那样。是的,嗯,那会是2个很棒的职位。呃,所以,我是说,那件事,我的意思是,如果你拿起,拿起任何一份报纸,从头到尾读完,然后问,其中有多少报道对任何事物持正面态度?几乎一篇都没有。所以,如果某件事具有新闻价值,它就会带有负面倾向,无论它是否是正面的。新闻业里似乎有某种东西,他们受的训练基本上就是绝不写任何事物的正面报道。偶尔你会看到一篇吹捧文章,但很少见。嗯,所以任何有新闻价值的事情都会被写到,
第 11 段
任何被写到的事情都会经过负面视角,因此,如果你从报纸中获取信息,你就会对世界产生一种怪异的负面看法。这简直,我是说,是事实。所以在 Twitter 上,你可以看到一种正面、负面平衡得多的状况,它没有那么强的那种偏见。可能仍然有一点负面偏见,但,但要少得多。嗯,所以它,你知道,我认为真的,我不确定传统媒体在这一点上究竟是做什么的,我是说。嗯,顺便说一下,Twitter 是全球排名第1的新闻,呃,应用。所以从人们为了新闻而下载什么来看,它,它是第1名。它有5亿活跃用户、2.5亿,呃,日活跃用户,其中我会说,可能有,你知道,1.8亿是有显著意义的
第 12 段
日活跃用户,他们,他们会在上面花费相当可观的时间。比如,在全部那2.5亿人中,人们每天花在 Twitter 上的平均时间约为半小时左右。嗯,所以我们拥有的是,这件事,像是我认为最有意思的事情,是 Twitter 每天大约拥有1.2亿至1.3亿小时的人类注意力,每一天的平均值都是如此。嗯,我认为这引出了一个非常有意思的观点,那就是,它的变现程度之低令人震惊,因为你必须问,比如,这些注意力有多大价值?每天1亿、1.3亿小时的人类注意力,来自那些会阅读的人。所以这些人通常是世界上最聪明的人、世界上最有影响力的人,而你每天拥有他们1.3亿小时的
第 13 段
时间,那是很多。目前,Twitter 从每小时这样的时间中赚到大约5或6美分。我,我认为这变现得很差。保罗·格雷厄姆的注意力,保罗·格雷厄姆那半小时的注意力,你知道,价值更高,更值钱。是的,我是说,如果我每天在 Twitter 上花2小时,比如你那些,无论出现什么广告,都在获得我的注意力。嗯,获得你的注意力,获得房间里每个人的注意力。嗯,你的时间极其宝贵。嗯,所以现在的问题是,我们需要真正投放相关且有用的广告。我认为,我认为随着我们这样做,我们或许至少能把它提高到每小时15美分、每小时20美分。是的,25美分,对吧。嗯,所以我认为 Twitter 在这里实际的收入潜力是巨大的,
第 14 段
嗯,而且这会是一个双赢局面,也就是说,如果向你投放的广告是你认为及时且相关的,里面的产品和服务对你有用,那对你有好处,对广告主也有好处。广告以及相关性的极限就是内容。所以,嗯,下一个流传的主题,一个经常不准确的叙事,是你对虚假信息漠不关心,或者媒体抛出其他叙事,说你实际上希望 Twitter 上出现虚假信息,而正如你刚才所说,你希望它成为世界上最准确的平台。所以,社区注释——在向你询问它们之前,我会快速过几个例子——社区注释是 Twitter 上依靠人民的力量进行事实核查。所以纠正政府
第 15 段
白宫的不实陈述,纠正竞选州长失败的候选人凯丽·莱克的不实陈述,即罗恩·德桑蒂斯得到了乔治·索罗斯的背书;在间谍气球飞越蒙大拿州比灵斯期间,为一条可能被理解成、嗯、不断发酵并意味着气球已在比灵斯上空被击落的推文及那张照片补充背景信息;以及为此补充背景信息,防止一种阴谋论试图把一些因素说成是有意或恶意的,而不是每年1,700起,在右翼阴谋论形成之前迅速予以纠正;呃,公司的不实陈述,或者说陈述,关于公司的不实陈述,我应该这么说,比如那条推文说,你知道,Google设置了一台徽章机器来告诉你是否已被解雇,并补充背景说明不是这样。
第 16 段
他们已经收到了电子邮件;嗯,关于Coinbase,有人说监管机构已告知他们必须停止质押,这很快、非常非常快地得到了事实核查。那么,这种似乎在事实核查中难以实现、但Twitter似乎已经掌握的中立事实核查,要如何扩大规模?又如何避免被某个议题的任何一方或政治光谱中的任何一方劫持,试图劫持社区注释,使其不再中立?嗯,是的,有一篇关于社区注释的白皮书,我建议阅读;事实上,我会把它发推给大家,嗯,让大家可以方便地访问。嗯,不过因为这确实是一个相当巧妙的想法,嗯,它,它采用一个人的观点,如果用一种方式来理解,就像,把用于页面的PageRank应用到人身上,也就是——
第 17 段
随着人们在审核注释的过程中建立可信度,他们积累起足够的可信度后,实际上就可以撰写注释,嗯,然后这些注释再由其他人评分,而你的可信度分数会根据给你的注释评分之人的可信度受到影响。所以这有点像,呃,呃,可信度的积累。但曾经有人在遥远的地方创建链接农场来向PageRank灌入垃圾信息,所以肯定会有人尝试这么做,但你会运用你的,是的,软件技能之类的来防止这种情况。要成为注释贡献者,你必须是一个经过认证的人,我想是的,嗯,所以你必须拥有,呃,而且要花一段时间才能达到那种程度,你不能突然,你会没有,如果你只是刚刚开始。
第 18 段
你一开始的可信度评分会是零,是的,所以很难建立链接农场,是的,嗯,而且当我们——我们会主动查找任何试图操纵系统的行为,嗯,并且将其关闭,呃,如果——如果经判定它们不是真人,或者看起来在集体围攻,就把它们从系统中移除,因为确实有人蓄意试图操纵社区注释,嗯,我们也将社区注释的源代码开放并公开,所以你可以看到,你基本上可以看到一切,所以,呃,那在白皮书里,它,呃,它不——它在白皮书上,但也可以在互联网上找到,是的,你可以搜索它,嗯,所以你可以准确看到社区节点是如何计算各项内容的、社区注释做了哪些,呃,改动,而我们会继续迭代
第 19 段
呃,目标是以最少的错误呈现真相,嗯,所以,你知道,总会有“真相是什么”这种问题,嗯,呃,而且我认为重要的是,比如说,有一种方式可以判断某人是否真的追求真相:如果他们真的追求真相,他们就必须承认,自己所想的事情有一定概率并不真实。如果有人认为自己所想的事情不真实的概率不存在,是0%,如果有人试图向你声称他们所说的有100的概率是真实的,那么他们撒谎的概率是100,所以,嗯,承认存在错误的真相,并力求随着时间推移把这种错误降至最低,这就是社区注释。我还认为,呃,一旦某人被社区注释了,嗯,他们会
第 20 段
在今后进行欺骗之前三思。所以当你开始被注释几次后,人们就会说,哦,我认识一个被社区注释过的人,是的,嗯,所以,呃,这件事没人能免疫,意思是,嗯,你因为这条,呃,CNN,呃,假字幕条而被社区注释了,CNN 并未做出这种说法,嗯,就是说,你知道,通过允许人们自由发言来实现 Twitter 上的言论自由,是的,而你很快就被社区注释了,嗯,一条讽刺性推文,而人——社区说这不,这不准确,嗯,这是你发推说“社区注释获胜”的那一条吗?我想你可能已经,它可能有益,是的,我的意思是,重要的是任何人都可以被注释,包括我,事实上,我想特别指出自己被注释了,嗯,重点,重点是,如果——如果我可以被注释,任何人都可以被注释
第 21 段
嗯,包括广告商。所以我们遇到过几起广告不准确而被注释的情况。哦,那个抵押贷款,抵押贷款 One,把钱贷给你自己,我想我看到过那个,它们独自存在了8年,所以,是的,当然,对,对,所以,所以,但那是你自己的客户,而他们可以被注释,然后,是的,然后想必会修改广告。是的,我的意思是,我认为这会对广告中的真实性非常有帮助。是的,好的,嗯,所以,就像,所以我再怎么强调都不为过,目标是严格追求真相,嗯,理想上是全部真相和最少的,呃,不真实。是的,所以我们回过头谈谈品牌安全,我们在这里快速讲两个,两个方面。有一种流传的说法,可能影响了广告商和代理机构,那就是 Twitter 将变成这个
第 22 段
仇恨言论的温床,而且收购后不久发生了这场你谈到过的机器人攻击,它似乎旨在试图让这成为一个自我实现的预言,实际上,直到它很快被你的,你的团队击败。根据你们团队发布的信息,仇恨言论比收购前少了50%,这是一张图表,所以,所以这不仅是你的优先事项,而且数量还不到以前的一半。然后在儿童性剥削方面,这是对你如此重要的一件事,嗯,80万个账号被封禁,这是你执掌前一年中任何一个月的4倍,而对 CSE 模式的成功搜索减少了99。所以请给我们谈谈这件事的优先级有多高,以及你在这方面取得了多大成效,但接着
第 23 段
想必还能做得更多。是的,嗯,我——我反复对 Twitter 的信任与安全团队说,这个——没有比这更优先的事项,而且无论如何,它永远都会是一个没有更高优先级的事项,那就是,呃,确保儿童在——在 Twitter 上是安全的,确保不存在儿童剥削。所以这永远是第一优先事项,嗯,而我得到的消息是,过去4个月里,我们为消除 Twitter 上的这类问题所做的工作,比过去10年所做的还多,而且它将继续是第一优先事项,嗯,你知道,CSC 搜索模式减少100倍,至少可以说是相当巨大。所以,呃,是的,它绝对是第一位的。那么继续谈品牌安全,你知道,这个全球负责任媒体联盟的品牌安全底线
第 24 段
这个,这个 GARM,嗯,你知道,Twitter Business 在今年早些时候发推称,在测试中,呃,99,至少99的实测广告展示出现在超过该底线的联系人上。所以,你知道,当你与首席营销官、与代理机构负责人交谈时,总体而言你想向广告商传达什么信息?我想你稍微谈到过这一点,如果还有什么要补充的话。但品牌安全实际上是一个最高优先事项,有一个团队全面负责,还有技术和人员专注于这个主题。是的,正如我说的,我的意思是,关于 Brian 说的,如果你真的——这在很大程度上取决于品牌。我的意思是,如果你有那种,你知道,呃,顺便说一下,Disney 是 Twitter 在全球的主要广告商,是我们最大的广告商之一,Apple 也是我们最大的广告商之一
第 25 段
但 Disney 当然想要——不希望他们的广告出现在不适合家庭观众的内容旁边,但还有,嗯,其他一些产品更像是,你知道,如果你愿意这么说的话,R 级,嗯,所以他们——他们更能接受自己的广告出现在相当于 R 级电影之类的内容里。所以乘车安全会因你谈论的品牌而异,它是家庭品牌,还是——还是不那么面向家庭的品牌,嗯,但——但广告商实际上可以调整,嗯,他们能接受自己的广告出现在什么,什么内容旁边以及接受程度,嗯,电视上也是如此,嗯,所以,你知道,比如你在晚上7点看到的广告,与午夜看到的广告不同,嗯,而这
第 26 段
就是我们在 Twitter 上拥有的同样功能,所以实际上要由广告商决定他们想把内容放在什么——那个——哪里,嗯,但——但我认为,重要得多的事情是广告确实有效,它具有相关性,而且能切实影响一家公司。广告相关性是最为巨大的事情,嗯,而——而这,这听起来会完全离谱,但,呃,直到3个月前,Twitter 在广告中都不考虑相关性,嗯,事实上,如果你使用 Twitter 很长时间了,呃,你们许多人可能都是,你应该会说,比如,你从 Twitter 上买过多少产品?大概是零。[笑声] 从笑声判断,大概是零。所以每年的时间都极其宝贵,火焰喷射器,没人谈到一个
第 27 段
火焰喷射器。嗯,我的意思是,他们可能会报道一些来自,你知道,呃,基于内容的推文中的东西,因为推荐的——推荐的内容具有相当的相关性,但广告却一直没有。所以随着我们转向让广告具有相关性和时效性,嗯,这确实,就像我说的,具有相关性和时效性的广告就是信息,就是内容,而地球上最聪明的人所投入的1.3亿个人小时,其时间价值高得惊人,嗯,坦率地说,过去由于广告大多不相关,我们一直在浪费人们的时间,而这并不好。今后 Twitter 将会有高度相关且有用的广告,而且,呃,而且因为它是——是有用的,因为它具有相关性,那里
第 28 段
收入将大幅增加,因为它现在有用了。所以,[音乐],嗯,我对未来非常乐观。过去4个月非常艰难,但我对未来很乐观。对此我很感激。那么让我们回到面向所有人的民主、民主平台,嗯,你知道,你说过左翼没有任何人被永久封禁,你让左翼和右翼的人都回来了,但我想你发推说的是,你必须为右翼更多的人解除封禁,因为被封禁的是他们,嗯,大部分是这样,但你的目标是平等地解除封禁,为政治光谱的各方提供完全平等的竞争环境。是的,我的意思是,这个——我认为,任何观察 Twitter 很长时间的人所看到的客观现实是,Twitter 曾经具有巨大的
第 29 段
让天平偏向左翼,嗯,Twitter会封禁和暂停右翼账号,其数量是左翼的10倍,所以说,坦率地讲,这自然是你会预料到的,因为我们在哪里,我们当时在旧金山,那里是,呃,深深、深深的蓝区,所以Twitter由极左翼控制,那么自然会发生的事情就是压制温和派,不只是,不是压制右翼,甚至连温和派的声音也会受到压制,所以,但那、但那不利于健康的全国对话,要进行健康的全国对话,你就必须代表整个国家,而且你还必须代表,呃,你知道,其他国家的每个人,它必须是,你知道,那是拥有一个城市广场的唯一方式,嗯,所以,是的,存在不成比例的
第 30 段
更多右翼账号被解除暂停和解除影子封禁,因为Twitter曾让天平严重、严重偏向左翼,所以就是这样,但、但如果你问,比如我们是否一直在暂停委员会和左翼,我们是否一直在影子封禁委员会和左翼,没有,我们没有,所以,呃,因为我所说的恰恰是,我们所做的、我们正在做的事情,就是让竞争环境变得公平,而且你知道,某件事是言论自由,是当你听到你不喜欢的人发表言论,而你、而你说你不喜欢他们所说的话时,否则那就不是言论自由,如果你没有那种能力,那么这种、这种对言论的压制迟早会转向你,所以如果你正在
第 31 段
看到你不喜欢的人说你不喜欢的话,那是一个好迹象,不是坏迹象,因为这意味着,而且前提是你也能卖出你的那份和平,嗯,我、我认为这是根本性的,我的意思是,我、我收购Twitter的原因并不是因为我认为这会是什么利润丰厚的黄金线路,嗯,呃,事实上,这一直艰苦而困难,伴随着巨大的,伴随着一种,你知道,每天都被人痛批,嗯,那可不是世界上最有趣的事情,嗯,但如果我们没有坚实的言论自由基础,我、我会担忧我们文明的未来,我们必须拥有它,这就是我这样做的原因。谢谢你这样做,嗯,换个话题,有一种媒体叙事,嗯,你知道,可能有一定准确性,它们并非全都不准确,嗯,但代码库很难
第 32 段
更改,技术债务难以驾驭,嗯,你知道,鲁布·戈德堡机器是、是你用过的一个说法,所以它是实用的分形鲁布·戈德堡,这至少部分准确,即使不是准确的话,呃,是的,嗯,呃,是的,呃,比如代码库就像一台鲁布·戈德堡机器,而且,呃,当你放大鲁比·戈德堡机器的一个部分时,里面还有另一台根·戈德堡机器,然后还有另一台,这是你的企鹅,这就是我所说的分形、分形,当你放大时,它只是另一个分形、另一个分形、分形根金书机器,嗯,所以要维持这东西运行相当困难,同时也很难推进产品,因为毫不夸张地说,它实在过于复杂,而我们会做出一个改变,在某处做一个、一个看起来很小的改变
第 33 段
然后却造成巨大的中断,嗯,比如就在昨天,我们做了一个自认为很小的改变,而我们会公布那些我们希望做到的、算是全面披露的一切,包括肮脏的,你知道,骇人的细节,所以,但、但基本上,如果有一个,呃,本应只针对Twitter用户群中1%的小改动,最后却成了影响100%的招聘人员使用 ace 的灾难性改动,嗯,而且,呃,你知道,我不知道,我们没有足够的时间深入细节,但,嗯,Twitter前端里有一个、有一个布尔标志,而那、那本不应该在那里,嗯,而且,呃,我们现在还活着,我们修复了它,嗯,但、但这是,我的意思是,让我给你举个像是很荒唐的例子,有一次我们,嗯,那里
第 34 段
Twitter Spaces出了一个问题,被暂停的用户尽管已被暂停,却仍然能够加入对话,而我们暂时,呃,关闭了,呃,Twitter Spaces的访问权限,这,嗯,随后导致任何使用Twitter Android应用的人都无法点赞推文。现在这些事情是如何关联起来的并不清楚,所以如果你处在鲁布·戈德堡式结构里,实际上,这就是我所说的,所以如果你使用的是一款iOS应用,你可以点赞推文,如果你使用网页应用,你可以点赞推文,但如果你使用Android应用就不行,因为Spaces,我的意思是,比如,什么,嗯,所以,你知道,我们正在,所以我们正在做的事情之一,是在幕后投入大量工作来简化代码库,嗯,去除多余的功能,并让Twitter未来能够更
第 35 段
快速地发展,但它基本上需要大量清理工作,嗯,是的,所以,你知道,尽管工程团队精简,而且、而且、而且代码库难以驾驭,你们的用户仍然增长了,云支出下降40%,还撤掉了一个数据中心。你们能够实现这一点,并在努力维持整个系统的同时推出订阅和其他功能,这是因为、因为工程团队的实力吗?而那个工程团队要如何同时完成代码库的改进,以及你说想要推出的所有功能?是的,我的意思是,我认为总体而言我们做得还可以,因为,嗯,只是为了让你了解一下在收购完成时的情况,比如说10月29日,嗯,Twitter当时正朝着每年负
第 36 段
30亿的消耗率发展,嗯,而银行里有10亿,所以这是个相当严峻的局面。如果20,如果2023年是正常年份,嗯,Twitter本会实现大约45亿的收入,或者45亿的成本,大致收支平衡,但当你再加上15亿的债务偿付,以及,嗯,广告的大幅下滑,其中一些是周期性的,一些是政治性的,但可以说收入至少下降50%,大约是氏族收入的30%,那么你就有超过30亿美元的负值,嗯,但现在Twitter有一些并非基于广告的收入,所以,嗯,数据服务,数据,是的,是的,没错,比如,是的,但,嗯,所以,是的,数据、订阅之类的,嗯,所以,但如果不采取行动
第 37 段
嗯,Twitter本会有60亿的成本和30亿的收入,所以是负30亿,而银行里有10亿,因此它会在4个月内破产,嗯,所以、所以必须立即采取激烈行动,嗯,而这、这已经做了,所以我们实际上现在已经把消耗降到了,把非,呃,利息消耗降到了大约,呃,15亿,所以我们有15亿的债务,也就是说,还有15亿的支出,呃,我们,呃,从3个数据中心减到了2个,嗯,而且这显著降低了我们的云支出,呃,嗯,与此同时还实现了Twitter历史上最快的产品演进,所以总体来说还不错,嗯,显然一路上出现过几次颠簸,但,呃,这是意料之中的,嗯,而现在我
第 38 段
我认为我们有机会把它发展成相当壮观的东西。我们,我们拥有 Twitter 历史上最高的,呃,用户总分钟数,所以真正应该关注的数字其实不是,呃,mDAU,即可直接变现的日活跃用户,而是,是用户时长。嗯,你每天总共有多少用户小时,那才是衡量婚姻的真正数字,因为比如说,一个人可以说,呃,达到3亿日活跃用户,但如果他们在这个系统上花的时间更少,呃,累计起来,那实际上会是一种倒退。关键是你值得人类投入多少注意力,而这正是我认为的,就像我说过的,真正深刻之处在于,Twitter 每天都拥有大约1.3亿小时的地球上最聪明、最有影响力的人士的时间,每
第 39 段
一天都是如此,没有其他任何东西拥有这一点。我的意思是,有些社交网络拥有更多用户,但它们没有那些影响力不大的人,它们没有你。所以,如果我根据你所说的广告商暂停投放、收入下降和成本变化来计算,嗯,它今天的 EBITDA 是盈利的,然后你希望在偿债后实现现金流盈亏平衡。嗯,史蒂夫,它没有盈利,不过,是的,那个 D 和那个,是的,对。你什么时候能实现现金流盈亏平衡?带着 D 的 bush。当你在那一天之后实现现金流盈亏平衡时,这就是我们需要专注于 e-pod 的地方。是的,外来的。我希望我们缴税。嗯,还有那个 T,是的。嗯,所以就像我说的,我的意思是,我们正在接近这样一个节点,即公司的总
第 40 段
支出,不包括债务,大致等于债务。好的,是的,我就是这么想的,我认为我们会在第二季度达到这一点。也谢谢你。嗯,然后,我绝对不想在鸡孵出来之前就数小鸡,或者喝掉它,或者诸如此类,但我,我认为我们有机会在下个季度,呃,实现正现金流。所以其中一部分将取决于广告商。因此我们快速谈谈广告,你已经提到过几次了。嗯,价值,呃,很明确:22年世界杯在 Twitter 上产生了1470亿次曝光,NFL 视频观看量同比增长50。嗯,你知道,超级碗提及量增长39,NFL 公布的互动量从未如此之高。然后 WPP 首席执行官 Mark Reed 在10天前或很久以前说过,这是2月24日。
第 41 段
Twitter 似乎更稳定了,我认为客户,大概是这里的广告客户,会考虑回到 Twitter。所以你是否与代理机构和首席营销官保持联系,而这是否就是当前的主题?我想我们刚刚看到麦当劳或其他公司正在回来,因为他们意识到,就,呃,品牌安全等方面而言,你绝对专注于那些据说你没有专注的事情。是的,我的意思是,我想我真正,嗯,想对广告商和品牌说的是,你知道,自己使用 Twitter,相信你在 Twitter 上看到的东西,而不是你在报纸上读到的东西,因为你在 Twitter 上看到的是真实情况,而你在报纸上读到的不是。嗯,我还要感谢 WPP 的 Mark Reed,感谢他们的支持,以及公关人员和其他人,也感谢那些一直支持
第 42 段
我们的广告商,比如迪士尼和苹果,谢谢。所以那是品牌广告,你已经多次提到效果广告。我想我听过你讲《白莲花度假村》的故事,也许我们可以,你可以在这里分享一下。嗯,你知道,效果型广告对其他公司来说一直非常有利可图,而且如果你愿意这么说,它可以在更窄播的基础上做得比纯品牌广告更相关。那么你们什么时候推出效果型广告并扩大其规模?哦,我们,我们从收购完成的那一刻起就推出了。比如,我们必须有,效果型广告其实就是相关的广告,相关的。事实上,从愿景上讲,我们应该真正做到零非基于一致性的广告。嗯,你知道,我们希望广告
第 43 段
那很重要,呃,人们的注意力很宝贵,我们不应该向他们投放烦人、不相关、刺耳或难看的广告,嗯,有意思的是,你提到了《白莲花度假村》,我其实和很棒的大卫·扎兹洛夫聊过,嗯,他当时说,嘿,为什么每当有人在 Twitter 上提到《白莲花度假村》时,我们不能放一段《白莲花度假村》的,呃,预告片呢?我说,当然可以。所以,就像我们正在做的那些,就像,极其显而易见却意义深远的事情之一,就是启用关键词广告,这样你可以输入关键词,呃,比如《白莲花度假村》,如果有人提到《白莲花度假村》,你就在那里放上《白莲花度假村》的预告片。我的意思是,这听起来非常显而易见,嗯,这不需要 dpt3,你不需要高级 AI 来做这件事,所以,呃,你知道,这有点就是 Google AdWords
第 44 段
但它被应用于推文、主页时间线、回复和其他所有地方,嗯,因为你经常会看到非常长、非常深入的对话,人们不停地谈论电影、电视、产品之类的,而,呃,这正是广告商传递信息的绝佳机会。你知道,如果我举个例子,比如,像是星链,嗯,它确实会在各种媒体上投放广告,呃,对于拖延,呃,嗯,会希望向那些尚未饱和地区的用户投放广告。所以椋鸟往往在城市地区趋于饱和,但在,呃,农村地区并未饱和,因此索尼克想做的是,比如说,请向连接速度较慢的农村用户展示广告,然后简单的信息就是:你想用更少的钱获得更快的互联网吗
第 45 段
点击,可能你会这么做,而 Twitter 需要能够做这样的简单事情,它会做到,嗯,事实上它已经能做到了,我们只是还没有全面推出。所以我们,我们我想现在大约是 20 左右,但到今年年底,几乎所有广告都将,应该会具有合理的相关性,而你的,你的星光例子又回到了你的可支配收入,如果你愿意这么说的话,或者教育水平,以及购买和负担开始订阅的能力,Twitter 用户的,就像它也与那一点相契合。是的,绝对如此。嗯,所以,嗯,你知道,我认为这里也有机会,呃,让广告变得,呃,很像,就是利用,嗯,AI 真正提高广告的相关性,意思是,如果你根据某人发的,呃,推文
第 46 段
评论、点赞以及诸如此类的东西,你实际上可以填充一个参数空间,呃,一个机器学习参数空间,然后你可以拿一个广告,即使你对那个广告什么也不说,在它被放入 Twitter 系统并获得 10 000 次浏览后,你也能填充那个广告的参数空间,然后将用户参数空间与广告参数空间关联起来,接着你就不需要做任何人口统计学定向,因为你可以,比如说它是一则园艺广告,那么你可能是 20、30、40 岁,也可能是 70 岁,任何性别,随便什么,这都不重要,重要的是你喜欢园艺吗,而那才是应该展示的广告。所以我认为我们可以摆脱很多这类按年龄范围和性别以及其他因素进行的定向,呃,转而按我的兴趣定向,嗯,而且
第 47 段
而且很多这类人口统计学定向都源自电视或报纸时代,在那里你无法与用户互动,只能算是猜测,因为电视是一条单行道,嗯,但 Twitter 不是单行道,那里存在持续的互动,嗯,所以我认为我们完全可以提供一种有深远改善、更加有用的,呃,广告体验。那么,在谈另外几家公司之前,我们先结束 Twitter 这个话题。我听说你所运营的、你正在朝着它构建的愿景,我想你把它称为 X 或万能应用。跟我们谈谈它吧,除了改善广告之外,还有,还有你知道,在你最宏大的愿景中,我们将能在 Twitter 上做什么?是的,所以,所以 X,X。
第 48 段
com 是,呃,你知道,你知道,所以,所以我认为有可能创造一种非常强大的,嗯,金融体验,基本上,嗯,就像,就像 PayPal 算是我认为支付和金融领域可以做到之事的一个半成品版本。是的,所以你会想要,比如说你,你想要能够轻松地把钱从 X Twitter 上的一个账户毫不费力地一键发送到另一个账户,呃,你会想要能够,我认为,让钱产生利息,你会想要能够,嗯,拥有债务,这样你就可以让你的利息变成负数。我的意思是,基本上我认为有可能成为世界上最大的金融机构,只需要为人们提供便利的,呃,支付选项,嗯,我们没有时间在这里深入讨论,除了,呃
第 49 段
如果我们只是让这个应用变得越来越有用,呃,人们就会更多地使用它,而且会很棒。我的意思是,是的。所以你仍然会看到。好的,嗯,我们暂时仍在谈 Twitter,但我们在,呃,你知道,在奥斯汀,谢谢你在投资者日接待我们,呃,你在不同时间展示了 16 位高管,呃,与你一起登台,这是一支极其,呃,深厚且建设完善的管理团队,而我认为,嗯,与你一起负责 Twitter 的高管团队,嗯,你知道,也许要精简一些,嗯,我们就说,也许这里有一种媒体叙事是准确的。所以他确实穿着黑色高领衫,所以,所以你还需要别的吗?我觉得不需要。那么,那么,那么,Twitter 管理团队什么时候会拥有像你在,呃,超级工厂展示的那样的人才梯队?嗯,我认为这需要,需要很长时间来
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打造一支强大的管理团队,嗯,而这个,你知道,我们双方,Tesla 管理团队用了 20 年,嗯,所以,呃,我认为 Twitter 远不是一个比 Tesla 容易的问题,嗯,所以,至于组建团队是否会花一些时间,我不知道,可能要几年。好的,嗯,是的,还有,嗯,换个话题,呃,你在超级工厂分享了宏图篇章 3,而且,而且你知道,我脑中浮现的那个编辑,关于,你知道,在你有关全地球可持续能源的第一部分之后的宏图星球,你能带我们了解一下那个,呃,积极、乐观、呃、有数学支撑的地球愿景吗?好的,没有很多时间来讲这个,但是,嗯,不过我想总体信息是,嗯,我们绝对可以让我们,呃,转变
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为一个可持续能源经济体,完全可持续,呃,使用锂离子电池、太阳能、风能以及地热、核能和其他东西,但主要会是太阳能、风能、末端锂离子电池。按照我们的计算,你大约需要 240 太瓦时的锂离子电池,其中大多数会是磷酸铁锂,属于磷酸铁锂这一类,因为那些主要是铁阴极,而铁是一种充满植物的材料。事实上,地球上,呃,地球上数量第一的元素实际上是铁,一个小知识,呃,我认为按质量计算,地球大约有 32 是铁,大约 30 是氧,然后其他一切都是杂项。所以我们就像一个巨大的锈球,嗯,呃,所以基本上有充足的铁,制造 240 太瓦时电池所需的材料
第 52 段
实际上在地球上很丰富,嗯,我们不需要砍光亚马逊雨林或做任何类似的事情,我们基本上不需要做任何对环境而言很糟糕的事,就能制造,呃,240 太瓦时的电池。事实上,呃,在可持续能源经济中,所需的采矿量将少于当前实际所需的采矿量。真的,这是一个立足于物理现实的、关于希望和乐观的信息,它不是一厢情愿,嗯,所以我们应该对未来感到兴奋和振奋,而我并不是在主张自满或任何类似的事情,也不是说我们应该,但是,而且更快实现比更慢实现更好,但,但我们不需要过某种糟糕或阶梯式的生活,也不必放弃我们喜欢的东西。你可以拥有你喜欢的东西
第 53 段
事实上甚至可以拥有更多,而且环境也可以很好,所有美好的事情都是可能的,这就是我所说的。我们应该对未来感到兴奋和乐观,而我们需要去建设它,这需要大量工作,嗯,但关于可持续能源,你不应该对未来感到悲伤,呃,它会实现,我们只是想让它更快而不是更慢地实现。所以这是第一个重要结论,你知道,我得到的下一个结论是,这是你的,你的下一阶段垂直整合,对车辆设计、电池设计、工厂优化进行不懈的第一性原理思考,你知道,与车辆同步进行,这可能会带来一个目标,我猜,就是这个,你知道,当新一代最终问世时,成本实现 50% 的阶跃式变化,嗯,能
第 54 段
请你快速概述一下吗?而且,而且它会释放整体潜在市场的下一波,因为存在价格弹性,这就是你在这个主题上分享的内容,是关于 Tesla 的第二个重要结论,嗯,是的,我的意思是,那些是,制造一款更小型的车辆有一条清晰的路径,其生产成本和难度大约是我们 Model 3 的一半,嗯,那款车将会,呃,或者说,你知道,实际上几乎完全在自动驾驶模式下使用。对 Tesla 来说真正极其巨大的事情是自动驾驶,嗯,如果人们用过 Tesla 完全自动驾驶,并且看到了完全自动驾驶能力演进得有多快,嗯,那么应该很明显,那是迄今为止意义最深远的事情,嗯,还有那种整体
第 55 段
潜在市场之类的东西,就像,伙计们,这实际上不是正确的思考方式。它,它就像,嗯,乘用车现在每周只使用大约 10、10 到 12 小时,嗯,一周有 168 小时,如果这些车辆实现自动驾驶,它们每周可能会被使用 50 或 60 小时。那会让一辆车的价值变为 5 倍,而制造这辆车的成本仍然相同。在那一点上,你基本上是在一个硬件产品上获得软件利润率,这太疯狂了,嗯,整体潜在市场,就像每个人、所有人类,强大。那么我们换个话题谈 SpaceX,先说星链。关于星链及其规模和部署,以及进展如何,你能告诉我们什么?是的,所以我认为这个造型团队做得非常出色,嗯,超过一半
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的目前在轨卫星,呃,都是星链卫星,所以如果把累计发射的所有卫星加起来,它们都少于星链,嗯,所以星链目前正在提供全球连接,你可以在地球上的任何地方获得连接,从南极洲最偏远的地区到旧金山,任何地方。那是全面的全球连接、高带宽和低延迟。延迟很重要,因为除非你在近地轨道,否则无法获得低延迟。地球静止卫星处在,你知道,嗯,非常非常高的位置,使用地球静止卫星时,各方面全部算在内,你有时会遇到长达 1 秒的延迟,而,呃,使用停滞卫星时,我相信我们可以把延迟降到 20 毫秒以下。所以,而且事实上对于国际
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通信,嗯,一件有趣的事情是,在光纤中,呃,光的传播速度比在空气真空中慢得多,所以,呃,粗略估算,光在空气和真空中每毫秒传播约300公里,但在光纤中每秒每毫秒只能传播略高于200公里,所以,所以,通过这个停滞系统而不是通过光纤时,光速大概提高了40,嗯,而且它还可以走一条更直接的路线,而不是沿着大陆的那种,呃,海岸线走,它实际上可以走一条更直接的路线,所以事实上,它的往返路线更短,而且从物理学角度看本质上更快,所以它,呃,把世界连接得比纤维瘤好得多,嗯,而且它将提供并且正在提供
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连接,让那些以前从未拥有连接的人,或者只能选择极其昂贵或带宽非常低的连接的人接入网络,所以它正在帮助许多从未、从未获得接入机会的社区,特别是考虑到如今教育是数字化的,那确实是你学习任何东西的方式,你基本上可以学习任何东西,如果你有互联网,基本上可以在互联网上免费学习任何东西,嗯,所以,就为偏远社区提供教育能力而言,呃,停滞在这方面做了很多好事。最后,嗯,你知道,发射方面,无论是,你知道,Falcon 9 重型还是星舰,我想你们的静态点火测试进行得很顺利,那么关于发射或星舰的下一个、下一个阶段,您能告诉我们什么?是的,所以我们正在
第 59 段
为星舰的首次发射做准备。这是一个非常困难的项目。这枚火箭,嗯,推力大约是土星 V 号的2.5倍,所以如果它,什么,如果或者一旦它达到全部,它就会凭借父亲感谢火箭312,但,但更重要的是,它被设计成第一枚完全可重复使用的火箭,超过有史以来的火箭,所以,呃,将生命扩展到地球之外的关键,是完全且快速可重复使用的轨道火箭。考虑到地球的限制,这是一个非常困难的问题,地球有稠密的大气层和强大的引力,做到这一点只是勉强可能。这就是以前从未做到这一点的原因。所以我们正在,我们正接近星舰的首次轨道尝试,希望在接下来的1个月左右进行首次尝试。我不是
第 60 段
说它一定能进入轨道,但我保证会很刺激。[笑声] 所以不会无聊。嗯,我想,我想它有,我不知道,希望有超过50的概率达到全部,然后,呃,然后我们,我们正在得克萨斯州南部建造一整系列星舰,所以我认为,我们希望今年达到超过这个的概率约为80。实现完全且快速的可重复使用可能还需要我们再花几年时间,嗯,我再怎么强调都不为过,这是,这是将生命扩展到地球之外所需的深刻突破,嗯,因为它把进入太空的成本降低了几个数量级,就像,假设没有可重复使用的飞机,航空飞行会有多昂贵?那会荒谬至极,你
第 61 段
不必每次飞往某地都购买你的飞机,而且你必须在身后拖一架小飞机,用于返程航班。所以,呃,你知道,那样就是无法扩大规模。嗯,所以假设那边一切进展顺利,这个,这个飞行器,如果它能让生命成为多行星的,那是一件非常重大的事。我可以让火星上的生命成为现实,而我认为那是,呃,我是说,那是任何文明都必须穿越的伟大文化之一,也就是这个文明是否会成为多行星文明。这是费米悖论的要素之一。我是说,我,我有点想知道,如果我们能够成为多行星文明,那将成为一种强制作用,最终改善太空可能,从而成为多恒星文明,前往其他恒星系统,而且我认为我们
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可能会发现许多早已死亡的单行星文明。我们不想成为其中之一。我们知道,我们不想能够跛脚的1颗行星,拜托。我想我们就讲到这里。谢谢您,埃隆·马斯克。好的。[掌声]
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how would you describe the mission of Twitter 2.
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0 under your ownership Elon so the the goal is to have Twitter be the best source of Truth the most timely and accurate source of Truth uh even if the truth is someone we don't want to hear or unpleasant or whatever but how it be timely and accurate and really just where you can really understand what's going on and not just um is something true or not but but what is the narrative so the thing that I think most people don't probably you do but most people don't quite appreciate is that the media controls the narrative so there are many things that could be talked about in the world but only a few things can fit in the front page so but Twitter doesn't have a limitation like that so the the public can control the narrative and the public can inform themselves
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as to what the narrative should be that that's a really big deal so it's a form for called citizen journalism or for the public to get together and communicate in a way that was never possible before um so you can really know what's going on uh so I I think that that's really going to be essential for a functioning democracy so say like what is the Bedrock of uh functioning democracy um it it has to be free speech and a Level Playing Field um that's why it's the first amendment was the first thing they did like we kind of think we've got to make sure freedom of speech um and why did they do that is because where they came from there wasn't freedom of speech and once you lose freedom of speech you don't get it back so that's why we must protect it at all
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costs thank you on the core principles if we want to call them that you just went over citizen journalism part of the people in a Level Playing Field that's what you mean by Democratic we've also heard you say core principles of authentic informative and entertaining accurate you just went over and and brand safe um where are you on these yeah I mean I think the some of these are um you know a little uh at odds you know brand safe I think it really means like where where advertising is displayed that the advertiser gets to to choose what material is near that advertising so if it's something you know uh if it's some sort of like a like a train accident or a a war scene then probably a family friendly brand is not going to want to advertise right next
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to that you know or you know it can't be like um here's a oblique war scene would you like to buy a hamburger or be like awkward you know um so that's understandable you want to put advertising next to content where it makes sense um but but the content in general needs to be authentic and informative even if it is controversial or jarring um and yeah and I think people need to be able to choose you know to some degree what content they want us to see and of course on Twitter you can so but really we want it to be the the fundamentally place you go to to learn what's going on and get the real story that's what the the the the truth the whole truth and it's going to be more than I would like to say nothing but the truth that that that's that's hard it's
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going to be a lot of BS there truth and more because they realize uh for sure um but but but you want to you want to have the truth and you want to you want to Bubble Up the the truth and be able to sort of sort out really want truth with the least amount of error so so you've said um you know Twitter is alive another way that's that's described is it's where news happens as you just said so a couple here Patrick Mahomes and Steph Curry talking to each other Rihanna speaking uh directly to her fans um or in crypto SPF and CZ were having the conversation directly uh on Twitter yeah Sam Walton you know launched uh chat DPT announces it on Twitter uh Paul Graham takes up a tweet on it you're tweeting on it uh I think 50 000 tweets happened there um before
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it was picked up by the mainstream media just in the first couple of days yeah and so you know talk to us about how how can the media catch up if they're on Twitter they can be seeing these tweets and posting it if they're not on Twitter is there no way to catch up like how does the traditional media and citizen journalism and 50 000 tweets on an important subject how do those intersect and how does the media catch up well just that as I'm sure many of you use Twitter it the everything Twitter is happening in real time so if you contrast that to what's happening in a newspaper they they have to learn the information propose an article to their editor get it approved write the article get it edited figure out which day it's going to get published on and
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so the news is actually the thing that happened is being reported on at you know three four days sometimes a week late um and if it happens on a weekend then it's like yeah at least three days type of thing so um you know chat gbt was was huge news for several days on Twitter before there was any news articles about it in major Publications um so I think especially if one is uh say thinking about investing in things you want to have information that is as timely and accurate as possible there's no better Source than Twitter for that I've certainly been my experience um so Paul Graham who's alleged in Tech a legend on Twitter I think he has tweeted um that he's 80 percent left-leaning probably if he had to put him on the scale so not someone um you know
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who's not not deemed and revered by all sides of the spectrum he has said you know consistent with your accuracy Point um he has said how important accuracy is and on Twitter he said you know you should be default skeptical of any news story about Twitter and assume it's default wrong because not only do some journalists have the agenda but the source has the agenda and it's so easy to go through the chain of inaccuracy or you know outright falsehood is is is he right about this um and you know if so um how how can accuracy about Twitter and about you be conducted by the traditional media if at all does a does a PR department help uh which you know famously don't have PR departments I I I you know the right name for PR is propaganda um and I always thought
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you know like maybe maybe we should have like a VP of propaganda that would be I just I think just more honest you know uh and um also a PC of Witchcraft that's what that would be like yeah um those would be two great ones uh so I mean the the thing that I mean if you pick up pick up any given newspaper and go through and read the whole thing and say how many of those stories are positive about anything at all at almost none so if if something is newsworthy it is going to have a negative slant whether it is positive or not that there's like something in journalism that they've been trained to basically never write a positive story about anything once in a while you see a puff piece but it's rare um so anything that's newsworthy will get written about
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anything that's that's written about will go through a negativity lens and so you therefore have a a bizarrely negative view of the world if you draw your information from newspapers this is simply I mean fact so on Twitter you can get a much more balanced positive negative situation it doesn't have that bias quite as much it's probably still a little bit of negativity bias but but much less so um so it you know I think it's really I'm not sure what the Legacy Media does I mean at this point really um Twitter Twitter is by the way the number one news uh app in the world so in terms of what people download for news it's it's number one this 500 million active users 250 million uh daily users of which I'd say there's probably you know 180 million significant
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daily users where they're they're it's a meaningful amount of time so like the average amount of uh time that people spend on Twitter per day all that 250 million is around half an hour or so um so what we have is the thing the thing that's like I think most interesting is there's about 120 to 130 million hours of human attention per day on Twitter every single day on average um which is I think it comes to a really interesting point which is to just it's startling how poorly monetized that is because you have to say like how valuable is that attention 100 130 million hours of human attention per day of people that read so these are the generally the smartest people in the world the most influential people in the world and you have 130 million hours of
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their time per day that's a lot so currently Twitter makes about five or six cents per hour of that time I I think this is a poorly monetized Paul Graham's attention Paul Graham's half hour of attention is you know is worth more more worth more than that yeah I mean if I'm spending two hours a day on Twitter like your whatever ads are coming through are getting my attention um getting your attention getting everyone in the room's attention um your time is incredibly valuable um so now the thing is we need to actually serve ads that are relevant and and useful and I think I think as we do that we can probably at least get it to like 15 cents an hour 20 cents an hour yeah a quarter right um so I think the actual potential here for Twitter revenue is gigantic
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um and it's going to be a win-win situation which is that if you are served advertising that you find timely and relevant that with products and services that are useful to you that's good for you and good for the advertiser advertising and the limit of relevance is content so in the um next theme that's out there that's a often an inaccurate narrative is that you're indifferent to misinformation or other narratives get put out in the media that you actually want misinformation on Twitter when as you've just stated you want it to be the most accurate in the world so Community notes I'm going to Breeze through a couple of these before asking you about them Community notes are the fact checking by power of the people on Twitter so correcting government
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misstatements from the White House correcting candidate misstatement from failed gubernatorial candidate Kerry Lake that Ron DeSantis had been endorsed by George Soros adding context while the Spy balloon was over Billings Montana to a tweet that could have been taken um to spiral and mean it had been shot down over Billings with that photo and adding context to that preventing a conspiracy theory of trying to elements are purposeful or nefarious as opposed to 1700 per year quickly corrected before a right-wing conspiracy theory could get going uh company misstatements or statements misstatements about companies I should say so the tweet that said you know Google set a badge machine to tell you if you were terminated or not and adding context that no
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they had been emailed um on coinbase that they've been told they had to stop staking by regulators fact check very very quickly so how can this scale this neutral fact checking which seems elusive in fact checking but Twitter seems to have a handle on it but how does it scale and how does it avoid being hijacked by either side of a an issue or political Spectrum trying to hijack Community notes to not have it be neutral um yeah there's a there's a white paper on community notes that I recommend reading in fact I'll tweet it out to the people um Can can have easy access to it um but the because it's really quite a clever idea um it's it it takes a the Viewpoint of someone if think of it in a way like like page rank for Pages as applied to to people which
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is that as people build credibility in how they review notes they they pull up enough credibility to actually write notes um and then those notes are then rated by others and depending upon the credibility of of the people rating your note your credibility score gets affected so it's it's sort of like uh uh collection of credibility but there were but there were link Farms created in Far Away places to to spam pagerank so that's going to be attempted but you're going to apply your yes in software skills and things to prevent that in order to be a notes contributor you have to be a verified person I think yeah um so you have to have uh and it and it takes a while to get to where you can't suddenly you you'll have no if you just when you just start out
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you will start off with no credibility score yeah so it's very hard to link Farm yes um and when we we actively look at any attempts to game the system um and and shut them down uh and and remove them from the system if if they're if they're determined to be not real people or if they seem to be brigading because there are deliberate attempts to manipulate Community notes um we also make the community notes uh source code is open and available so you can see you can basically see everything so uh that's in the white paper it's uh it's not it's on the white paper but it's available on the internet yeah you can search for it um so you can see exactly how Community nodes is calculating things what uh changes are made to community notes and we'll keep iterating
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uh and the goal is to have truth with the least amount of error um so it's you know there's always like what is truth um uh and I think the important like what is one way to sort of for example say like if someone really aspired to the truth if they really aspire to the truth they must acknowledge that there is some probability that what they think is untrue if somebody thinks there's no probability zero percent about what they think somebody thinks that they is trying to claim to you that what they're saying is true with 100 probability there's a 100 probability they are lying so um truth with acknowledged error where you aim to minimize that error over time that's what community notes is I think also uh once someone gets community noted um they think
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twice about uh being deceptive in the future so you start getting noted a few times people like oh I know someone who's been Community noted yeah um so uh this no one's immune meaning um you've been Community noted on this uh CNN uh fake Chiron CNN made no such claim um that you know free speech on Twitter by allowing people to speak freely yeah and you were quickly Community noted um a satirical tweet and peop and Community said this is not this is not accurate um is this the one you tweeted Community notes for the win I think you may have it might benefit yeah I mean the important thing is that anyone can be noted including me and in fact I wanted to make a note of being noted um that the point the point is that if if I can be noted anyone can be noted
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um including advertisers so we've had a few cases where the advertising wasn't accurate and it got noted oh the mortgage mortgage One loan money to yourself I think I saw that there alone for eight years so yeah sure right right and so so but it's your own customer and they can be noted and then yes and then presumably change the ad yes I mean this will I think be very helpful in truth and advertising yeah okay um so like so I can't emphasize enough the goal is rigorous pursuit of the truth um aspirationally the whole truth and the least amount of uh untruth yeah so let's talk back about brand safety we'll go through two two quick ones here one narrative that's out there that probably affected advertisers and agencies was Twitter was going to become this
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hotbed of hate speech and shortly after the acquisition there was this bot attack you've talked about that seemed designed to try to make that a self-fulfilling prophecy actually until it was quickly uh defeated by your your team and there's 50 percent less hate speech according to what your team has put out this is a graphic then pre-acquisition so so not only is it a priority for you but less half as much as before and then on child sexual exploitation something that's been so important to you um 800k suspended accounts that's four times more than in any month of the prior year of your ownership and the 99 reduction in successful searches for CSE patterns so talk to us about how much of a priority this is and how successful you've been at it but then
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also presumably more can be done yeah um I I I've repeatedly said to the trust and safety team at Twitter that the the there's no more priority which will always be a no more priority no matter what is uh ensuring that the children are safe on on Twitter that there's no child exploitation so that is number one priority always and forever um and what I've been told is that we've done more uh to eliminate this on Twitter in the last four months than it's been done in the last 10 years and it will continue to be number one priority um you know 100 fold reduction in CSC search patterns is pretty gigantic to say the least so uh yeah it's absolute number one so on continued on brand safety you know this Global Alliance for responsible media's brand safety floor
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the the garm um you know Twitter business had tweeted out earlier in the year that in testing uh 99 at least 99 of measured ad Impressions appeared on contact that exceeded that floor so you know what message do you want for your advertisers when you're talking to a CMO to the head of an agency just in total I think you touched on this a little if there's anything to add but brand safety is in fact a top priority with a team all over it and technology and humans focused on the subject yeah as I said I mean with respect to Brian say if you really it depends a lot on the brand I mean if you've got sort of you know uh kind of by the way Disney is is a major Advertiser on on Twitter worldwide one of our biggest advertisers Apple's one of our biggest advertisers
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but Disney of course wants to does not want to have their ads next to things that aren't appropriate for a family audience but there are um other products that are kind of more you know R-rated if you will um and and so they're they're more comfortable with being their advertising being in the equivalent of like an R-rated movie or something like that so ride safety varies depending upon what brand you're talking about is it a family brand or or less family brand um but but advertisers can actually adjust um how much uh what what content they're comfortable having their advertising appear next to um same is true on TV um so the you know the advertising that you'll see at say 7 PM is different from the advertising that you'll see at midnight um and this
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is we have the same functionality on Twitter so it's really up to the advertiser what the where they want to put their content um but but I think by far the most important thing is that the advertising is is effective that that it is relevant and that it moves the needle for a company the advertising relevance is is the most gigantic thing um and and this this is going to sound totally bizarre but uh Twitter did not consider relevance in advertising until three months ago um and in fact if you've used Twitter for a long time uh which probably many of you have you should say like how many products have you bought off Twitter probably zero [Laughter] judging by the laughter probably zero so annual time is incredibly valuable flamethrower no one about a
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flamethrower well I mean it's possible that they might report things from you know uh content-based tweets because the the content that's recommended is reasonably relevant but the advertising has not been so as we moved to shift towards the advertising being relevant and timely um this is it really like I said advertising that is relevant and timely is information it is content and the the value of the time of 130 million person hours of the smartest people on earth is insanely valuable um and frankly historically with the advertising being mostly Irrelevant in the past We've been wasting people's time and that's not good going forward Twitter will will have very relevant useful advertising and uh and because it is is useful because it is relevant there
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will be a massive increase in the revenue because it is now useful so [Music] um I'm very optimistic about the future it's been a very difficult four months but I'm optimistic about the future I appreciate that so let's get back to democratic Democratic platform for all the um you know you've said there's no permanent suspensions of anyone on the left you've brought back both left and right but I think what you've tweeted is you had to unban a lot more on the right because that's who was banned um for the most part but your goal is equally unbanned complete equal Level Playing Field for all sides of the political Spectrum yeah I mean the the I think the objective reality for anyone looking at Twitter uh for longest time was that Twitter was had a massive
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thumb on the scale on the left side um Twitter would ban and suspend accounts on the right uh 10 times more than on the left so like naturally what you'd expect frankly because where are we were in San Francisco which is uh deep deep blue so Twitter was uh controlled by the far left so the natural thing that would happen then is suppression of of moderates not just on the not suppression of the right but even suppression of moderate voices so but that but that's not conducive to a healthy National dialogue in order to have healthy National dialogue you have to represent the whole country and you have to represent uh you know everyone in other countries too it's got to be you know that's the only way to have a Town Square um and so yeah there were disproportionately
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more accounts unsuspended and unshadowed banned on the right because the Twitter had a huge thumb on the scale on the in favor of the left so that's but but if you say like have we been suspending on Council and left have we been Shadow Banning counseling left no we haven't so uh because I what exactly what I said is when we do we are doing which is to make it an even playing field and you know something is freedom of a speech when it is when you're hearing speech that that from someone you don't like and what and what you're saying you don't like what they're saying this otherwise it's not free speech and if you don't have that ability then sooner or later that that's that suppression of speech is going to be turned on you so it is a good sign if you're
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seeing people you don't like say things you don't like that is a good sign not a bad sign because it means and provided you can sell your peace too um I I think this was fundamental I mean the reason I I did the Twitter acquisition was not because I thought this would be some lucrative Gold Line um uh it in fact it has been arduous and difficult with a massive with a you know and being dumped on every day well that's not the most fun thing in the world um but if we do not have a strong Foundation of free speech I I fear for the future of our civilization we must have this that's why I did it thank you for doing it um Switching gears a media narrative that um you know may have some accuracy they're not all inaccurate um but the code base is difficult to
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change Tech debt unwieldy um you know Rube Goldberg machine is is a term you've used so it's practical fractal Rube Goldberg this is this is at least partially accurate if not accurate uh yes well uh yes uh like the code base is like a Rube Goldberg machine and uh when you zoom in on one part of the Ruby Goldberg machine there's another root Goldberg machine and then there's another one this is your penguin that's what I mean by the fractal fractal as you zoom in it's just another fractal another fractal fractal root gold book machine um so it's quite difficult to keep this thing running and then also difficult to advance the product because it is really overly complex to say the least and we'll make a change what what appears to be a small change somewhere
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that then causes a massive disruption um so for example just yesterday we made what we thought was a small change and we'll put out the what we want to be in the sort of full disclosure of everything including dirty you know gruesome details so but but essentially if there was a uh what was supposed to be a small change to one percent of the Twitter user base ended up being a catastrophic change to a hundred percent of the recruiter use of ace um and uh you know I don't know we don't have enough time to go into the details but um there was a there was a Boolean flag in the Twitter front and that that should not have been there um and uh we live now we fixed that um but but it's I mean let me give you it's like a silly example at one point we um there
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was a problem with Twitter spaces where suspended users were able to join conversations even though they were suspended and we temporarily uh turned off uh access to Twitter spaces which is um which then made someone anyone who is using the Twitter Android app unable to like tweets now how those things are connected is not clear so if you were in the Rube Goldberg practically that's what I'm saying so if you had an an IOS app you could like tweets if you're on the web app you could like tweets but not if you had an Android app because of spaces I mean like what um so you know we're so one of the things we're doing there's a lot of work behind the scenes in simplifying the code base um getting rid of extraneous features and enabling Twitter to evolve more
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rapidly in the future but it requires a lot of cleanup essentially um yeah so you know you you've grown users despite this lean engineering team and the and the the code base being unwieldy and Cloud spend 40 percent down cut out a data center is this due to the the strength of the engineering team that you've been able to achieve this and introduce subscription and other features while trying to hold it all together and and where does that engineering team go to accomplish both the code based enhancements and all the features you've said you want to introduce yeah I mean I think on balance we're doing okay because um and just to give you a sense of where things were at the close of acquisition on say October 29th um Twitter was tracking to a negative
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three billion a year burn rate um and had one billion in the bank so that's a pretty dire situation if 20 if 2023 had been a normal year um Twitter would have done something on the order of four and a half billion in revenue or four and a half billion in cost roughly Break Even but when you add one and a half billion of debt servicing to that and um a massive decline in advertising some of it's cyclic some of it political but could call it at least a 50 decline in Revenue roughly 30 percent of Clan Revenue you've got over three billion dollars negative um but now Twitter has some Revenue that's not Advertising based so um data services data yeah yeah exactly like yeah but um so yeah data subscriptions and whatnot um so but it was in the absence of action
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um Twitter would have had six billion in cost and three billion Revenue so minus three billion and it was a billion in the bank so it would have gone bankrupt in four months um so so immediate and drastic action had to be taken um which which was and so we actually have now cut the burn to the the non-uh interest burned to roughly uh one and a half billion so we've got a billion and a half of debt so saying and a billion and a half of expenditures uh we uh went from three data centers to two um and it reduced our Cloud expenditures uh significantly um and um while at the same time having the fastest product Evolution in Twitter's history so overall not bad um they've been a few bumps along the road obviously but uh this is to be expected um and now I
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think we have the opportunity to grow it into something quite spectacular we we have the highest uh total user minutes and Twitter history so the the the real number to care about is actually not the uh mdow monthly which is directly monetizable daily active users but it's it's user time um how many total user hours per day do you have that's that's the real figure of marriage because one could for example say uh go to 300 million daily active users but if they spent less time on the system uh cumulatively that would actually be a downgrade it's how much human attention are you worth and that's what I think like I said that the really profound thing is what Twitter has is roughly 130 million hours of the smartest most influential people on earth every
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single day there's there's nothing else that has that I mean there are social networks that are that have more users but they do not have the small influential people they don't have you so the if I do the math on what you've said about the advertiser pause and revenue Decline and the cost changes um it's ebitda profitable today and then you're looking for cash flow Break Even after Debt Service well Steve it's not profitable but the yeah the the D and the yeah right when do you get to cash flow Break Even bush with the D when you get the cash flow Break Even after that day this is where we need to focus on the e-pod yes foreign I hope we pay taxes um and the T yeah um so like I said I mean we're getting to the point where we're close to having the total
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expenditures for the company excluding debt roughly equal to the debt okay yeah that's what I think like I think we'll be there in Q2 thank you too um and then like I don't I definitely don't want to count uh chickens before the hatch or drinks it or anything but I I think we've got a shot at uh being cash flow positive uh next quarter so that'll some of that'll depend on advertisers so we'll talk quickly about advertising you've mentioned it a few times um the value uh is clear 147 billion Impressions uh on Twitter of World Cup 22 and 50 year-over-year growth and NFL video views um you know 39 increase in Super Bowl mentions the NFL putting out engagements never been higher and then wpp CEO Mark Reed said 10 days or long ago this was February 24.
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Twitter seems to be more stable and I think clients advertising clients presumably here will look about coming back to Twitter so are you in touch with agency and CMOS and is is this the theme I think we just saw McDonald's or others coming back as they realize you are absolutely focused on the things you were said not to be focused on in terms of uh brand safety Etc yeah I mean I think the really um what I'd say to advertisers and Brands is you know use Twitter yourself and believe what you see on Twitter not what you read in the newspapers because what you see on Twitter is the real thing and what you read newspapers is not um and I'd like to thank Mark Reed on wpp for their support and publicists and others and for the advertisers that have stuck with
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us like Disney and apple thank you so that's brand advertising you've mentioned a few times performance advertising I think I've heard your story about White Lotus which maybe we can you can share here um you know performance-based advertising has been very lucrative for other companies and it can be made more relevant on a more narrow cast basis if you will than than pure brand advertising so when when do you introduce performance-based advertising and and scale it oh we we introduced from the from the moment the acquisition closed like we have to have a performance-based advertising is really just advertising that is relevant relevant in fact we should really have aspirationally zero non-conformance based advertising um you know we want advertising
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that matters uh people's attention is precious we should not serve them ads that are annoying or irrelevant or strident or ugly um and it's interesting to mentioned White Lotus I actually was talking to David zazlov who's great um and he was like hey why can't we put a White Lotus uh a trailer every time someone mentions White Lotus on Twitter I'm like absolutely so like one of the like it's super obvious but profound things that we're doing is enabling keyword advertising so that you can enter the keywords and uh like White Lotus and if somebody mentions White Lotus you put the White Lotus trailer there I mean this sounds very obvious um you don't need dpt3 for this you don't need Advanced AI for this one so uh you know it's sort of just Google AdWords
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but applied to tweets and the home timeline and replies and everywhere else um because you'll often have very sort of long deep conversations people going on talking about movies TV products and whatnot and uh that's the perfect opportunity for advertisers to provide their message you know if I think about something for example like like starlink um which does advertise in various media uh for stalling uh um would want to advertise to users in in regions that are not already saturated so Starling tends to be saturated in urban areas but is not saturated in uh rural areas and so what Sonic would like to do is like say please show the ad in to to rural users with a slow connection and then the simple message is do you want faster internet for less money
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click probably you do and Twitter needs to be able to do a simple thing like that and it will be um and in fact it is already able to do that we're just having fully rolled it out so we're we're I think around 20 ish but by the end of this year almost all advertising will be should be reasonably relevant and that your your Starlight example comes back to your disposable income if you want to or the education level and the ability to buy and afford to start the subscription of the Twitter user like it also dovetails back into that yeah absolutely um so um you know I think there's also an opportunity here to uh have advertising be uh much like like really improve the relevance of advertising using um AI in the sense that if you based on what uh tweets somebody
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reviews likes and whatever you can actually populate a parameter space uh an ml parameter space and then you can take an ad and even if you say nothing about that ad after it's dropped in the Twitter system and has 10 000 views you populate a parameter space of that of the ad and then you correlate the user parameter space and add parameter space and then you don't need to do any demographic targeting because you could be like say it's a gardening ad well you could be 20 30 40 you could be 70 years old any sex whatever it doesn't matter what matters do you like gardening and that's the ad that should be shown and so I think we can get away from a lot of the sort of targeting by age range and sex and whatever uh in favor of targeting my interest um and
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and a lot of these sort of demographic targeting was done coming from a TV or newspaper era where you don't have interaction with the user you just have to kind of guess because it's a one-way Street in TV um but on Twitter it's not a one-way Street there's continuous interaction um so I think we can just have a profoundly more useful uh advertising experience so let's close on Twitter before getting to um another couple companies I've heard that you run the vision You're Building towards I think you've called it X or the everything app tell us about it and Beyond just improving the advertising and and you know what will we be able to do on Twitter in your in your grandest vision yeah so so x x.
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com is uh you know you know so so I think it's possible to create a very powerful um Finance experience basically um like like PayPal is kind of like a halfway version of what I think could be done in payments and finance yeah and so you want to be like let's say you like you want to be able to to send money easily from one account on X Twitter to another account effortlessly with one click uh you want to be able to I think earn interest on the money you want to be able to um have debt so you can set your interest can go negative I mean basically I think it's possible to become the biggest financial institution in the world so just by providing people with convenience uh payment options um we don't have the time to go into it in detail here except uh
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if we just make the app more and more useful uh people will use it more and it'll be great I mean yeah so you'll still see okay um we're still on Twitter for a moment but we had uh you know in Austin thank you for hosting uh at the investor day and you showcased 16 Executives uh on stage at various times um with you an incredibly uh deep and built out management team and I think the executive team um with you with Twitter um you know is perhaps a bit leaner um let's just maybe there's a media narrative here that's accurate so he does have a black turtleneck so so you need anything more I don't think so so so so when when does the Twitter management team have that bench like you showcased uh the gigafactory well I think it takes it takes a long time to
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build a strong management team um and the you know we're both the Tesla management team over 20 years um so uh I think Twitter isn't easier problem than than Tesla uh by a long shot um so whether it'll take some time to to build the team and I don't know probably a few years okay um yeah and um Switching gears uh you shared Master Plan Three at the gigafactory and and you know the edit uh that that came to my mind with you know Master planet after your your first piece there on sustainable energy for all of Earth can you can you take us through that uh positive optimistic uh mathematically underpinned vision for our planet okay it was not a lot of time to do that but um but I guess the the overall message is that um we can absolutely make us uh to turn
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into a sustainable energy economy fully sustainable uh using Lithium-ion batteries solar wind as well as geothermal nuclear and other things but primarily it'll be solar and wind end Lithium-ion batteries and our calculations you need roughly 240 terawatt hours of Lithium-ion batteries most of those will be iron phosphate lithium of the iron phosphate variety is those were the primarily iron cathode which is a plantful material in fact Earth is uh the the number one element on Earth is actually iron a little factoid uh I think Earth by mass is about 32 iron and about 30 oxygen and then everything else is miscellaneous so we're like a mighty rust ball um uh so plenty of iron basically the the materials are needed for uh to make 240 terawatt hours of batteries
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are actually plentiful on Earth um we don't need to mow down the Amazon or anything like that we don't need to basically do do anything Terrible's the environments to create uh 240 terawatt hours of batteries in fact uh there will be less mining required in a sustainable energy economy than is currently required really this was a message of of of Hope and optimism grounded in physical reality it is not wishful thinking um so we should be excited and inspired about the future and I'm not suggesting complacency or anything like that or that we should but and getting there faster is better better than getting there slower but but what we don't need to live some terrible or stair life and give up the things that we like you can have the things that you like
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in fact even more of them and the environment can be good all the good things are possible is what I'm saying there's we should be excited and optimistic about future which we need to go build it it's a lot of work um but you should not feel sad about the future regarding sustainable energy uh it will happen which just want to make it happen faster rather than slower so that was the first big takeaway you know the the next one that I had was this your your next phase of vertical integration the Relentless first principles thinking on vehicle design battery design Factory optimization you know at the same time as the vehicle that could lead to a Target I guess of this you know 50 percent step change in cost when the new gen eventually comes around um can
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you just take us through The quick summary of that and and it unlocks the next uh wave of the Tam because there's price elasticity is is the what you were sharing on this subject is the second big takeaway for Tesla um yeah I mean those are the there's a clear path to making a vehicle a smaller vehicle that is roughly half the production cost and difficulty of our model three um that vehicle will be uh or you know really used almost entirely in autonomous mode that the thing that is really gigantic uh for for Tesla is autonomy um and if people have used the Tesla full self-driving and have seen how rapidly the full self-driving capability has been evolving um it should be obvious that that is by far the most profound thing um there's the sort of total
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addressable Market stuff it's like guys this is like actually not the right way to think about it it's it's like um passenger vehicles right now only see about 10 10 to 12 hours of use per week um there's 168 hours in a week if those vehicles are autonomous they're probably going to get used for 50 or 60 hours a week that's a 5x increase in the value of a car and it costs the same to make the car at that point you basically have software margins and a hardware product it's insane um total addressable Market as everyone all humans powerful so let's switch gears to SpaceX hitting first starlink what can you tell us about starlink and the the scale and deployment and how that's going yeah so I think the styling team is doing an amazing job um more than half
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of all satellites uh in orbit right now are starlink satellites so if you add up all satellite launched cumulatively they are less than starlink um so starlink is currently providing Global connectivity you can get connected connectivity anywhere on Earth from the most remote part of Antarctica to San Francisco anywhere that's full Global connectivity high bandwidth and low latency the latency is important because unless you're in low earth orbit you cannot get low latency the geostationary satellites are you know um very very high you've sort of got uh sometimes up to a second of latency from a Geo stationary satellite all things inclusive whereas uh with stalling satellites I believe we can get the latency under 20 milliseconds so and in fact for international
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Communications um an interesting thing is that in fiber uh light travels much slower than in Aero vacuum so uh in a rough approximation uh light travels about 300 kilometers per millisecond in air and vacuum but only just roughly over 200 kilometers per second per milliseconds in in fiber so so you've got like a sort of roughly 40 increase in speed of light um going through this the stalling system then through through fiber and and it can also follow a more direct route instead of following the the sort of uh Coastline of the continents it it can actually have a more direct route so it's a fact it's a shorter round and an inherently faster from a physics standpoint so it it connects the world um way better than fibro um and it will provide and is providing
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connectivity to people that either never had it before or where their options were extremely expensive or very low bandwidth so it's helping out a lot of communities that never never had access especially when you consider that education is is digital these days that's really how you can learn anything you basically learn anything you can basically learn anything for free on the internet if you have the internet um so in terms of providing education abilities to remote communities uh stalling is doing a lot of good in that regard lastly um you know the launch whether you know Falcon 9 heavy or Starship I think you had the static fire test that went well and and what can you tell us about the next next phase on launch or Starship yeah so we're getting
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ready for the first launch of of Starship this is a very difficult program the rocket is um roughly two and a half times the thrust of a Saturn V so if it what if or once it reaches all of it it'll be by father thanks rocket 312 but but more importantly it is designed to be the first fully reusable rocket over the rocket ever so that the key to uh extending life beyond Earth is fully and rapidly reusable orbital rocket this is a very hard problem given the constraints of Earth with Earth has a thick atmosphere and strong gravity it is only barely possible to do this that's why it has not been done before so we are getting we're getting close for our first orbital attempt of Starship hopefully in the next month or so we'll have our first attempt I'm not
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saying it'll get to orbit but I am guaranteeing excitement [Laughter] so it won't be boring um I think I think it's got I don't know hopefully above 50 chance of reaching all of it and uh and then we we've got we're building a whole series of Starships in South Texas and so I think we've got hopefully about an 80 chance of reaching over this year it'll probably take us a couple more years to achieve full and Rapid reusability um which I can't emphasize enough is it is the it is the profound breakthrough that is needed to extend life beyond Earth um because it it lowers the cost of access to space by orders of magnitude in the same way that if if let's say there were no airplanes that were reusable how expensive would Air flight be it would be insane you
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don't have to buy in your airplane every time you flew somewhere and you have to tow a small airplane behind you for the return flight so uh you know that's just you're not going to scale um so assuming things go go well there this this vehicle is if it could make life multi-planetary that's a really big deal I could make life on Mars real and I think that's uh I mean that's one of the great cultures that any civilization has to pass through which is does the civilization become multi-planetary or not this is one of the elements of the Fermi paradox I mean I I sort of wonder that if we are able to get to multi-planetary that'll be a forcing function for ultimately improving space might to become multi-stellar to go to other star systems and I think we
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may discover that there are many long Dead one planet civilizations we don't want to be one of those we know we don't want to be able to lame one planet please I think we're going to wrap on that thank you Elon Musk all right [Applause]