以下是我与埃隆·马斯克进行的一场新年对话，他可以说是我们这个时代最伟大的企业家，或许是有史以来最伟大的企业家。在这场名为《即将到来的富足时代》的对话中，我们谈到了包括 AI 和人形机器人在内的技术如何创造一个富足的世界，在食物、水、能源、医疗保健、教育等方面提升全人类。我们会谈到长寿，会谈到 AI，会谈到全球人口减少，以及你应当对未来保持乐观的理由。加入我们吧。新年快乐，Yan。2024年新年快乐。我喜欢。是啊，感觉就像未来。它就是未来，它就是未来。会非常棒。嗯，你知道，我希望我们能聊一点

希望和好消息，给这个，呃，这个 Spaces 里的各位。我觉得人们用得上。你是我所知道的最乐观的人，远远超过其他人，而且，呃，我是说，我想听到这样的乐观态度确实让人耳目一新。我，我认为人们需要，我认为人们需要一种积极的心态。我认为这在很大程度上是一种自我实现的预言。你知道，如果你很悲观，而我们可以谈谈新闻媒体如何不断摧毁我们的心智，呃，是啊，新闻太负面了。坦白说，看新闻会让我难过。我，我，嗯，让我问你一个问题。我不看，我不看电视网新闻，也不读任何报纸。他们给我多少钱都不够，是啊，让我花时间去做这件事。我，我会不小心读到新闻，然后就会难过。太疯狂了。

嗯，我是说，正如你，正如你所知道的，新闻，每日新闻，嗯，嗯，真的、真的试图回答这样一个问题：今天地球上发生的最糟糕的事情是什么。确实如此，而且而且而且而且，让我展示，让我每隔5分钟就在你的客厅里向你展示一遍，一遍又一遍。是啊，而且世界很大，地球上有80亿人，所以你知道，在地球上的某个地方，每天都会发生可怕的事情。但每天也会发生很棒的事情。你知道我怎么称呼 CNN 吗，危机新闻网，或者持续负面新闻网络。问题是，他们必须吓唬你，否则，是啊，你知道，如果他们说，嘿，总体而言今天相当不错，嗯，你知道，暴力事件处于历史最低水平，是啊，我们拥有更多获取

食物、能源、水、医疗保健和教育的机会，比这个星球上以往任何时候都多。我的意思是，我觉得那样的话，人们反而会开始看恐怖电影。是啊，是啊，挑战在于，呃，这是我们的神经网络，是我们大脑的布线方式，你知道，它是在一个危险无处不在的世界中进化形成的，所以我们可以说天生就一直会对恐惧和匮乏作出反应。是啊，嗯，是啊，我觉得你提出过这个观点，嗯，也许其他人也提过；从进化的不对称性来看，这算是说得通的：我们对危险的反应会强于对奖励的反应，嗯，因为危险的后果可能是致命的。比如，可能是，嗯，如果你到那边去，那里有一头狮子会吃掉你，或者某个邻近的部落会杀掉你，然后游戏结束。是啊，你的基因被排除在

基因库之外了。是啊，你，你出局了。相比之下，假设有这样的消息，呃，那边有一丛不错的灌木，上面有浆果，拥有它固然很好，但它是可有可无的。嗯，但问题是，一种情况下你会死，另一种情况下你只是，你只是挨饿，而死亡比饥饿更糟，所以，所以基本上就是，任何人，任何对负面消息的反应没有强于正面消息的人都没能存活下来。他们被，他们遭到了自然选择，毫无疑问。那真糟糕。是的，我是说，任何对狮子在哪里漫不经心的人都被 L 吃，而且你知道，现实是，你知道，新闻媒体只有一项工作，就是把你的眼球交给他们的广告商，而当我们对负面新闻的关注是正面新闻的10倍时，我们得到的就全是这些，24/7。所以，我是说，听着

我，我，是啊，确实如此。我是说，我确实总是会从 X 上我的，我的信息流里获取新闻，但我也会看到世界上正在发生的所有美好事情，因为我可以有选择地决定看那些内容。但当你看电视，或者，你知道，看报纸时，呃，某个地方的某位编辑或某些制片人正在决定什么会被灌输进你的头脑，而这真的会对你的心态，嗯。是的，完全正确。所以，我是说，这个，这个 Space，呃，呃，叫作《即将到来的富足时代》，而且你知道，当我的第一本书《富足：未来比你想象的更好》出版时，你确实，你给予了极大的支持，而我，而我对此很感激。那是12年前。哇，12年，太不可思议了。是啊，而且情况已经变好了太多。嗯，所以，它确实在很多方面如此，并不是，并不是每个方面

我是说，我是说，显然我们认识很久了。嗯，那，那，我，我，我记得我们当时在巴西参加 Ado 的派对。是啊，他当时多大？那是他的40岁生日，还是30岁生日？我不知道。那是不是，那就是 SpaceX 刚刚，那就是我正在创办太空的时候。是啊，那是，那是大约2003年，就在 X Prize 产生获胜者之前，对吧？21年前，我当时试图说服你不要制造火箭。就像，就像你都可以有一个孩子，而那个孩子已经可以合法地，或者合法地生孩子了。是啊，是啊。嗯，所以，21年前，呃，是啊，所以，而且你知道，事情，事情大多变得更好了，大多。你，我想给每一位听众注入一剂关于富足内在的希望和乐观，因为世界已经在许多方面变得更好了，而你听到的却始终只有负面消息，而且我认为那是

回到了我们某种核心的反乌托邦心态，那源自，你知道，100,000年前的进化。但如果我们只看其中一些，看看其中一些领域，对吧，比如全球极端贫困，对吧。我的意思是，还有什么，还有什么指标比这更重要？你知道，数字是这样的：在19世纪，全球90%的人口处于极端贫困之中；1981年是42%；如今不到全球人口的10%，对吧？是啊，饥饿，饥饿其实已经很少见了，而过去很常见。完全正确。嗯，另一个显然由你带头推进的领域是能源。你知道，我们过去捕杀鲸鱼来获取鲸油照亮夜晚，我们摧毁山坡，在地下钻探数公里。呃，那个数字是多少来着？大概有8,000倍的能量照射……

太阳表面，地球表面从太阳获得的，比我们作为一个物种消耗的更多，电池和太阳能增长的速度是多少？这一定非常巨大。是的，我是说，呃，我是说，Tesla，我们做过几次演示，一个算是比较简化的，另一个则极其详细，嗯，内容是如何让地球从能源角度实现完全，呃，自给自足，并证明这件事不存在，没有什么，如果你把锂离子电池和太阳能所需的所有材料逐一拆解，嗯，你完全可以轻松地让地球，呃，不，我的意思是，材料并不短缺。这很容易。显然需要大量工作，嗯，但，但是，但是，并不存在某种我们数量不足的关键材料，导致地球无法完全自给自足。嗯，即使

你为地球上所有工业和，和包括供暖在内的全部能源，以及交通，呃，都以电力驱动，你也可以用太阳能和莱恩电池做到，嗯，而且，而且完全不会，完全不会接近耗尽地球资源。是啊。嗯，我最喜欢的，我最喜欢的例子是，呃，回到19世纪，地球上最珍贵的金属是铝，它比黄金，呃，以及铂金还珍贵。即使地壳中，你知道，有8%是博克西，你知道，基本上就是铝，但要获得它在能源方面实在太困难了。不是因为它稀缺，只是它当时还不是可用的形态。而这就是技术的作用：它把稀缺且不可用的东西变得可用，对吧？所以，是啊，是啊，确实，氧化铝极为常见。

嗯，而且，嗯，但，但是它确实，它确实处于低能态。事实上，铝热剂，铝热剂，铝热剂就是，呃，氧化铁、铁锈，以及，以及纯铝。嗯，而氧化铁和氧化铝之间的能量差异非常巨大，产生的热量惊人，足以熔穿钢铁。所以那就是铝热剂。因此，呃，是啊，你确实需要大量能量才能，嗯，把氧化铝转化为铝。嗯，但，但是，是啊，在第二次世界大战期间，制造飞机所需的铝极度短缺，当然。嗯，而且，呃，事实上在英国，蚊式，呃，某种战斗轰炸机是，呃，主要用木材制造的。嗯，而且，但它是，它是用，呃，它基本上是一种早期形式的，的，的复合材料，但外侧使用硬木，而，而轻木和像巴尔沙木作为

一种夹层结构，它相当巧妙，整个东西原本是为了应对……的短缺以及那个，然后，然后我们有了技术，我们有了更好的，呃，更好的机制，从氧化铝中、从博克西中提取铝，而这种事一再发生，事实上，这正是我们所做的，我是说，我想那个数字是去年，也就是2023年，或者可能是22年，我们来自太阳能的新增发电量超过了任何其他形式，而且，而且，而且你们在电池生产方面做得非常出色。是的，而且电池产量正在增长，嗯，实际上几乎以，嗯，以车辆产量增速数倍的速度增长，所以，嗯，你知道，在某些情况下，几乎是车辆产量增速的10倍，嗯，所以，所以，是的，对……有巨大的需求

电池，而且你知道，随着，随着世界使用更多，呃，电力，呃，如果你能缓冲能源，那么电网实际上会比无法缓冲时拥有大得多的能力，因为绝大多数电力，当然，它被浪费了，假设没有，他们假设没有缓冲，嗯，所以他们必须按照峰值输出、峰值功率输出来确定发电厂的规模，这通常是在炎热的夏日，嗯，而且，而且，而且到了夜间，发电量可能从乐观情况下的一半，到有时只有1/10，嗯，所以，所以，所以，基本上，几乎各地的电网，电网都是按过量的，嗯，电力输出来确定规模的，嗯，而如果你只是用电池对其进行缓冲，呃，你就能把电网的输出提高，呃，你知道，2倍或3倍，我是说

为了，为了阐明这里关于富足这个主题的观点，嗯，能源没有限制，对吧，我们正在增加人均能源量，而且一个国家的GDP与其能源产量之间存在直接关联，对吧，而健康和教育与能源之间也存在直接关联，随着一个国家人均能源的增加，一切都会相应增长。是的，是的，嗯，我再谈另一个类别，通信，嗯，这是你正在革新的另一个领域，我想现在那个数字，我刚才，呃，早些时候查过，大概是6。

2023年有90亿智能手机用户，就像8 86%，这是我，我在 Google 搜索时得到的数字。嗯，我不知道什么6。

9，你知道该说什么，是的，呃，69亿，69亿，走吧，我的、我的、我的12岁孩子也会这么说，呃，就像是地球上85、85%的人有智能手机，而且，呃、呃，而且，嗯，我是说，如果、如果你把有史以来制造的智能手机总数加起来，呃、呃，它超过了，哦，我想它，所以这、这太惊人了，所以我们从大约零 telepan 发展到地球上的绝大、绝大多数人，不到1个世纪，嗯，你知道，全球互联网也是一样，而且，呃，我有没有，你们的、你们下一代星链，呃，航天器已经升空了，呃，手机直连，好吧，呃，是的，刚刚升空，嗯，所以你知道，我们仍然必须证明它能运行以及诸如此类的事，但，嗯，我们有信心，即使、即使这些早期卫星无法运行，我们也从、从物理学角度有信心

从它能够运行的角度来看，嗯，这、这是一个挑战，因为我们必须在地面模拟一个蜂窝基站，才能让手机接收信号，所以我们必须做补偿，例如，嗯，还有、还有、还有、还有做某种，因为、因为你会受到光速限制，伙计，如果这很容易，早就有人做到了。对，对，有一些光速限制，所以你知道，这个、像光是如此之快，却又如此之慢，嗯，所以，嗯，你知道，我、我，是的，至少在太空背景下，或者在低空、或者相关背景下，一个理解光的好方法是，它在空气或、呃、太空中每毫秒传播约300公里，然后、然后在光纤中每毫秒略高于200公里。大家好，我想

暂时打断这一集，快速向你介绍一款我很喜欢、而且每天都在使用的健康产品。事实上，我每天使用2次。它就是 Seed 的 DS-01 Daily Synbiotic。希望到现在你已经明白，你的微生物组和肠道是健康中最重要的可调整部分之一。你知道，你的肠道微生物组与一切都有联系：你的大脑健康、心脏健康、代谢健康。所以问题是，你正在做什么来优化自己的肠道？让我花一点时间告诉你我每天在做什么。我服用2粒 Seed 的 DS-01 Daily Synbiotic 胶囊。它是一种二合一的益生菌和益生元配方，有助于消化健康、肠道健康、皮肤健康、心脏健康等。它含有24种经临床和科学证明的

装在一种获得专利的胶囊中递送的益生菌菌株，这种胶囊实际上能保护其中的内容物免受胃酸侵蚀，并确保其中100%能够存活并抵达你的结肠。现在，如果你想亲自试用 Seed DS-01 每日合生元，结账时使用代码 Peter 25，首月用量可享25%折扣。只需前往 seed。

com moonshots，并在结账时输入代码 Peter 25，那、那就是 seed。

com moonshots，并使用代码 Peter 25，即可在购买 Seed Daily Synbiotic 的第1个月享受25%的折扣。相信我，你的肠道会感谢你的。好了，让我们回到这一集。你知道，另一个丰盛的领域是健康。嗯，我听到背景里有几个孩子的声音。所以有趣的是，你知道，儿童死亡率，我是说，这可能，呃，我是说，就丰盛程度的提升而言，这是最触动我的一项。几百年前，5岁以下儿童死亡率是42%，你的孩子能否活下来就像抛硬币一样，嗯，而现在它已经下降到5%以下，并且在过去30年里下降了50%。嗯，所以仅仅是儿童死亡率，以及女性死于分娩，所有这些事情，人们在听所有新闻和

所有问题时都不会想到；然后是我最喜欢的话题，预期寿命，呃，已经从，你知道，30岁提高到了，呃，75岁以上。不过关于长寿这一点，我仍然不同意你的看法，就是说我们是否应该解决它。就像，我们应该……你认为我们应该解决。好吧，我、我，听着，我不一定是在说要永远活着，但我希望能活到120岁。嗯，我，是的，我、我有点怀疑我们是不是不该太快解决它。嗯，先考虑一下总统选举，而且你真的希望他们先获得那种预期寿命吗？好吧，呃，你知道，你知道，我、我、我认为我们，呃，我认为，呃，能够一直拥有你在40多岁或50多岁时具备的活力、认知能力和身体能力，呃，直到100岁，那就是我的目标。嗯，我是说，你不会想、你不会想

要，你知道，你至少想活到100岁，不是吗？嗯，好吧，我想这确实取决于我是不是，你知道，患有痴呆。我、我想我不会愿意成为社会的负担，也不愿患上痴呆、不知道发生了什么。嗯，我宁愿死掉。好吧，是的，我认为那、那是肯定的，呃，但我们假设你拥有，你知道，你今天拥有的全部认知能力，你的体力也还在，那有什么理由让你不愿意，你知道，延长寿命或健康寿命呢？是的，当然。嗯，我、我想我们最终会……延长寿命或延长健康寿命存在如此强大的推动力，因此我认为，无论我是否希望出现，我们都会看到，呃，这一领域的进展。实际上，我对这个主题的看法是，它是

我、我认为它其实没那么难解决，呃，因为，如果你只考虑对称性论证，它们会很有帮助。我们体内的、那些、那些细胞全都以基本上几乎完全相同的速度衰老。嗯，比如什么，比如我从没见过谁左臂老、右臂年轻。我从没见过这种情况，一次都没有。是的。那么，这些细胞是如何交流的，是什么让它们……是什么在同步它们的行为？嗯，某种……有一个非常明确的机制，在你体内的30到40万亿个细胞之间同步衰老。比如，根据你的体重，你通常会有30到40万亿个细胞。没错，你知道，让……你知道，保持同步。嗯，我是说，另一个、另一个、另一个参考，呃，证明点是

你知道，弓头鲸，最大的哺乳动物之一，能够反复活到200岁；格陵兰鲨可以活到500岁，并在200岁时生育。我记得我在医学院时听到这件事，我说，你知道，为什么它们可以，我们为什么不行？我说，这要么是工程问题，要么是软件问题，是硬件问题或软件问题。而且我认为、我认为这是 AI 将为我们带来的最大领域之一：真正的理解。然后说到你关于左臂和右臂的另一个观点，你知道，当你生孩子时，呃，女性30、35岁，你40、45岁，你的孩子从0开始。对。嗯，我、我确实觉得这很了不起：我们从单个细胞解压成，嗯，一个成年的人，然后、然后我们，你知道，为了繁衍又压缩回

单个细胞。这很迷人，你知道，我是说，你看，你有点把自己看成某种，你知道，Blas assist，然后说，比如，我一点都没变，我们再来一次，让我们循环利用。这就像、就像大爆炸，就像，对，大坍缩。嗯，你知道，人们针对延长健康寿命争论的一件事，呃，以及，你知道，增加人口、活到100、120、150岁；有一个概念叫作“长寿逃逸速度”，对吧，也就是将会出现这样一个时点：你每活1年，科学就会把你的寿命延长超过1年。这是一个值得思考的有趣想法，呃，在那种情况下，你知道，事故真的会成为，呃，一件需要担心的事。嗯，他们担心人口过剩，以及

而且你、你已经多次谈到这一点，对吧，而且我看到你今天在发推文，或者抱歉，是在发 X，呃，抱歉，呃，但它是，你知道，人口过剩是最大的迷思之一，也是最大的，呃，虚假……人口过剩完全是胡扯。对。嗯，你知道，而且、而且，你知道，这太荒谬了。嗯，地球人口不足，并非人口过剩，是不足……坐飞机穿越这个国家时看看窗外，那里空无一人。完全正确。就像，如果你说，比如，你的目标是像从 aliot 飞到纽约，把一个保龄球扔到一个人身上，你会失败。嗯，你知道，我认为，我的目标之一……我认为，在这个丰盛的世界里，我们能给人们的最大礼物就是延长健康寿命。我是说，当你思考人们想要什么时，他们

想要幸福，也想要健康，对吧？没人想死于痛苦的癌症，或者、或者，呃，痴呆。嗯，所以，是的，而且你知道，我、我已经多次向你发出邀请，我的朋友，来 Fountain Health，让我带你完成我们的、我们的项目。这个世界需要你再活30、30年。好吧，那么你有什么……我应该做什么，假设一下？好吧，我是说，所以有2个……可以采取什么行动？2个……这可能对听众有帮助。关于、关于这次讨论，有2个。是的，所以有2个……你需要知道3件事。第1，你的身体内部是否正在发生你不知道的事情？所以身体极其擅长隐藏疾病。我们在那些看似健康的成年人中发现，2%患有自己不知道的癌症，2.5%……2%、2和

0.5%患有动脉瘤。14.

4%患有代谢疾病、冠状动脉疾病，呃，神经退行性疾病，以及，好吧，所以你的身体极其擅长隐藏疾病。好了，所以实际上直到第3期或第4期，你才会，呃，感觉到任何癌症。所有心脏病发作中有70%毫无先兆。你的身体一直在代偿，而且，你知道，对我们大多数人来说，我们对汽车或飞机内部状况的了解，都比对自己身体内部状况的了解更多。对。我有一个问题要问你：发射星舰时，上面会装多少、多少个传感器？那艘飞行器上会有多少个星传感器，大致数量级是多少，能传回数据的？呃，好吧，我想，把所有东西都算上，会有几千个传感器。而如果我……我是说，有33个发动机，所以它们、它们算

从 sure 的 bul，而且你还有，呃，呃，应力传感器，用来观察结构、航空电子设备和通信以及所有子系统中正在发生什么。如果我问你，怎么有 39 台发动机，包括 uper 级，所以，所以有几千个传感器，嗯，而且传感器远远多于——对，我正想说，如果，如果问你身体里有多少传感器，而我们却不去查看，这太疯狂了，因为我们现在确实拥有技术，可以查看并确定：有没有什么正在发生、是我需要知道的？什么时候是发现它的好时机，比如现在，或者什么东西可能会坏，什么东西可能会经历失效循环，然后有哪些最非凡的治疗手段可以延长人类寿命。所以，嗯，我是说，对我而言，那就是

那是，呃，那是一个，那是一个大问题，让我再问你另一个，另一个，呃，丰盛，呃，主题，也就是教育，嗯，你认为我们今天的任何学校，初中或高中，正在让我们的任何孩子为未来做好准备吗，嗯，好吧，我所知道的一个都没有，好吧，可能有，我是说，可能大概有少数学校在这样做，但大概99%的学校没有，是的，呃，学校改变得非常非常慢，嗯，而且而且我认为，确实似乎存在偏离教授基础知识的情况，你知道，呃，良好的写作、数学和历史，嗯，你知道，我担心整个工作议程和意识形态正渗透进教育，同意，嗯，而且实际上正在破坏教育，同意，我是说，你知道，你怎么想，你是否

有这些想法，我是说，所以归根结底，我认为我们最好的，我们最好的医疗保健和我们最好的老师将会是AI，对吧，它们理解一切，而且它们让每个方面去货币化并实现民主化，我是说，AI知道你的，你的孩子最喜欢的颜色、体育明星、电影明星，他们知道语言，他们知道孩子今天做了什么，嗯，我是说，这是一种让地球上的每个孩子都获得最好教育的方式，我是说，你，你多年前资助过，如果你还记得，我们做的全球学习X大奖，我们做了一个，呃，我们，我们在坦桑尼亚用平板电脑上的AI进行了演示，那是AI最早期的日子，伊莫德·穆斯塔克，你认识的，是那场竞赛的，呃，获胜者之一，他后来现在创办了Stability，嗯，我是说，挑战在于，我不认为

教育系统短期内不会放弃，呃，那种控制，嗯，确实，好吧，如果，我是说，如果我看看我的孩子是如何受教育的，他们似乎主要是由YouTube和Reddit教育的，是的，嗯，还有X，我想也是，嗯，但他们一直都在网上，嗯，那，那似乎是，而且我猜如今很多情况下，呃，是TikTok，很不幸，是的，是的，嗯，所以我认为，是的，教育状况是，是有问题的，嗯，不确定该怎么办，嗯，我想，我认为最终，呃，你知道，KH学院是朝正确方向迈出的一步，嗯，但我认为其中一部分是让我们的教育机构首先意识到，它们没有让孩子为即将到来的世界做好准备，我是说，这触及了另一点，我们是如此线性的思考者，对吧，我们正在预测

我们所拥有的东西，并把它向外推演4年或5年，我不认为人们，让我问你，你认为人们准备好面对2030年的世界会是什么样了吗，呃，没有，嗯，我，我不知道2030年的世界会是什么样，所以大概，我不会说我一定是那个，我们无疑生活在最有趣的时代，呃，你知道，就像这个，严格来说，这句中国俗语“愿你生活在有趣的时代”并不是一件好事，嗯，但我是说，我，我，我个人认为，我愿意生活在最有趣的时代，而这就是最有趣的时代，我也认为这是有史以来活着的最好时代，唯一比今天更令人兴奋的时间是明天，我是说，你知道，用什么衡量，是的，我们有环境问题，但我

认为，相比我们10年前拥有的技术，凭借我们现在拥有的技术，我们最有可能解决那些环境问题，是的，我，好吧，我一般认为，作为一种，作为一个，作为一个生活的一般准则，宁可在乐观却错误这一边犯错，也不要悲观却正确，嗯，如果你要在一边或另一边犯错，最好是，选择乐观并冒着犯错的风险，比，比，比悲观能带来更高的生活质量，嗯，你知道，而且你知道，而且对，我是说，这，这更好，你只会拥有一个，只管享受生活，是的，乐观是，是，是，是会让你快乐，有一项针对14,000人的研究，呃，那是14,000名女性和1500个男性，嗯，而它显示

那些，呃，那些拥有乐观心态的人比拥有悲观心态的人多活14%到15%。我的意思是，心态是一种强大的东西，我认为几乎所有人都低估了它。我的，我最喜欢的例子之一是，嗯，你知道1880年代和1890年代的环境灾难是什么吗？我相信你知道，嗯，是这个，这是回到鲸……不，不，这是另一种生命形式，是HSE庄园，呃，灾难，那个霍尔德问题。对，对。这个霍尔是什么？嗯，对，不，不，你说得对。我的意思是，纽约基本上到处是，呃，霍尔粪便，还有，还有，还有尿液，呃，还有尸体。那太糟糕了。人们带来了他们的动力。我的意思是，基本上，比如，如果你觉得，如果你觉得，你觉得纽约地铁现在很臭的话

等等，我的意思是，试想那东西到处都是，到处都是，你知道，人们到处都是。人们，人们从……人们搬进纽约市中心、底特律、芝加哥，他们把自己的动力也带了过来。而1880年代、90年代以及进入1900年代的文章，你，你读这些时，其中的预测是灾难，那将成为一场灾难，因为霍尔、马、马粪就像在增长。他们在每条街的街角都有像是专门停放马粪的停车场。嗯，嗯，我，似乎还有一个难题，因为我觉得如果一匹马能活，嗯，你知道，大约15年，嗯，那就意味着每年所有马匹中有1/5会一命呜呼，嗯，所以你就有……所以，所以如果你有大约，呃，300,000匹马，就意味着有20,000匹马倒下

每年死去，然后你需要一匹马来搬动那匹马，那匹死马，或者只是，或者只是用骑手把它盖起来，或者任它腐烂。对，我的意思是，到时候各大城市到处都会有正在腐烂的马匹党团会议，然后，然后，然后就像，就像，好吧，这是谁的死马？人们大概会很快认领一匹活的，却不会急着认领一匹……但接着，然后创新出现了，汽车来了，解决了这个问题。我认为这正是我们不断忘记的问题。我们，我们忘了我们在解决问题方面具有难以置信的创新能力，那正是人类极为擅长的事。对，对，确实，确实。嗯，嗯，其实说到鲸鱼，我不知道你是否知道，回到鲸鱼，这是一个鲸鱼般的尾巴，鲸鱼故事。好吧，嗯，很多

人认为，嗯，鲸鱼，呃，种群数量的最低点是在1800年代，因为，你知道，人们为了鲸和鲸油而捕猎鲸鱼。对。嗯，但，但事实上，遥遥最低的那个点其实是在，嗯，呃，20世纪中叶，呃，因为苏联的一个官僚错误。好吧，这个我必须要年……他们，他们不能……所以他们总会制定这些5年计划和配额，呃，规定鲸鱼吨位要达到多少。嗯，当时甚至没有规定鲸鱼吨位是否是可用吨位，嗯，无论如何，他们只是设定了鲸鱼吨位配额。而他们在索维联盟会做的，就是每年、每5年不断提高所有东西的配额。所以，所以鲸鱼吨位就变得越来越高，越来越

高，越来越高，而，而如果你，如果你是一名船长，并且你，并且你，并且你的鲸鱼吨位很高，你会得到一块金属和加薪；如果你的鲸鱼吨位很低，你就会被送到G。你得到，你得到你所激励出来的东西，宝贝。是的，激励很重要。而，而所以它，它到了，它到了，它就到了荒谬的程度，嗯，而且会有苏联捕鲸船驶入，呃，你知道，美国和澳大利亚水域，拼命寻找鲸鱼，而，而且他们会捕到鲸鱼，给鲸鱼称重，然后把 cus 倒掉。我的意思是，这里，这里，这里有一整个 AET 兔子洞，你可以一路钻下去，而这基本上是一个关于中央计划种种愚蠢之处的教训。所以，这也是法律在其有用期过去很久很久之后仍被保留在法典中的问题

对社会而言。嗯，我们确实存在一个根本性的，呃，法律法规累积问题，因为它们是不朽的，嗯，而人类是会死的，正如我们刚才谈到延长寿命时所说的那样，嗯，所以，所以很自然，每年都会有这种法律法规的累积，嗯，直到最终一切都合法。我的意思是，一切都非法，一切都非法。对，什么都不被允许，因为你有相互重叠的法律法规，而且，而且其中一些实际上，呃，彼此矛盾，嗯，无论你往左还是往右，它们既左又右。[笑声] 是，嗯，我的天，你知道，嗯，就像 SpaceX 是……我的意思是，骗局，你知道，在这方面，在这个具体案件中，司法部……你可能知道，司法部正在起诉 SpaceX

因为，嗯，只雇用永久居民以及，以及，嗯，美国公民。我们这样做的原因是，我们被非常明确地告知，呃，如果我们不雇用美国永久居民，那，那将构成违反《国际贸易、运……运输与武器条例》ITAR，而 SpaceX 的整个高管团队和董事会都会进监狱。听起来是个很好的动机。是的，所以我们，我们确实是被政府用非常明确的措辞这样告知的，而，而且你的意思是你很清楚这一点。我很清楚。是的，这是一场噩梦，嗯，而我们想要……顺便说一句，这，这让我们在与，呃，其他国家竞争时失去竞争力。是的，这，这，这，这，这相当糟糕。所以，嗯，但，但接着，接着，接着

司法部，嗯，你知道，正在起诉，呃，SpaceX，嗯，因为没有雇用寻求庇护者。这里有个要点：不是已经获得庇护的人，而是正在寻求庇护的人。这样的人很多。有很多人在寻求庇护。是的，所以我们做也该死，不做也该死。所以，如果，如果我们雇用一个不是永久居民的人，我们就在违法；如果我们不雇用一个不是永久居民的人，我们也在违法。所以这，这就是我们所面对的疯狂的一个例子。嗯，伙计，我，我想在一件事上称赞你，我也……我认识你的时间已经足够长，亲眼看着你经历这一切，你一次又一次地押上一切。你押上了，呃，你的全部财富，负债去做那些

你所相信的事情，而我，我，我有一个问题想问你，我一直非常想问，现在我要开始让这件事，呃，让它为人所知。这个星球上有那么多亿万富翁，拥有数百亿美元和数千亿美元，却实际上坐拥这些财富，不去改变世界，嗯，也不把它投入，你知道，除了用来提高回报之外的地方。这并不是坏事，我认为世界上可用于做事的财富和自由能量越多越好。但是，嗯，你能谈谈这个吗？我不知道你是否愿意，不过，呃，有少数人，比如马克·贝尼奥夫，还有，呃，还有埃里克·施密德，而你自己位居榜首，他们投资于让世界变得更美好、解决全球性重大挑战。嗯，对此有什么想法？抱歉，我只是有一些，一些

孩子什么的，对吧，问题，嗯，背景里有点家庭噪音，嗯，所以，呃，让我看看，嗯，是的，嗯，好吧，是的，我的意思是，我确实认为，拥有资源的聪明人应该关心文明的福祉、文明的未来，嗯，即使并没有，即使他们并不特别利他，嗯，因为你真的无法，你无法脱离文明而存在，嗯，你，你知道，如果文明崩溃了，一切就全完了，嗯，你知道，有些人在其他国家或者夏威夷之类的地方弄了这种，嗯，地堡，嗯，我就想，听着，你真的认为自己能在末日情境中活下来吗，嗯，就像他们会，他们会，他们会来那个地堡里找到你，然后他们会撬，他们会把你撬出来，并且

拿走你的东西，嗯，而且而且而且而且，这，这无论如何都会，所以实际上，呃，拥有资源的聪明人，任何拥有资源的聪明人，他们只要有一些长远眼光，我的意思是，听着，现在是你，是你和和杰夫·贝索斯拥有最宏大的长远眼光，而我看到，我，呃，你知道，呃，我只是很好奇，要如何激励其他人真正，嗯，帮助世界加速发展，呃，你知道，并且并且让世界成为一个生产力更高的地方，对吧，成为亿万富翁的最佳方式就是帮助 10 亿人，世界上最大的问题就是世界上最大的商业机会，呃，你相信这一点吗？好吧，我想也许我们就是应该多和人们谈谈，嗯，我想就是和他们谈谈，而且你知道，我认为也许只是

提高有意识的认知，认识到，嗯，没有文明就无法生活，嗯，当当你，就像其实根本不必提出利他主义的论点，你其实可以，你知道，提出一个甚至完全出于自利的论点，嗯，比如说，没有文明的生活会很悲惨，而如果你想知道没有文明的生活是什么样，只要试着赤身裸体地在森林里生活 1 天，你就会又赤裸又恐惧，而且而且很快意识到文明太棒了，不得不吃虫子，还会被虫子咬，而且而且而且我们如此相互依赖，才能实现我们今天所拥有的技术和能力水平，嗯，你知道，我很好奇，有没有什么东西是你认为，嗯，在外界并没有变得更加充裕的，或者有什么是我们

面临着充裕方面的，呃，限制，你知道，我只想提一下，好，先回答那个，然后我想过来谈谈你资助的碳移除“埃克斯·普赖斯”，等一下，你知道，我们，我们正在创造充裕的食物、能源、水、医疗保健、教育，嗯，我们有没有受到任何形式的限制？没有，其实没有，没有，嗯，我的意思是，没有，我，我想我，我同意你的看法，未来最有可能是充裕的，嗯，我们不应该对未来自满，嗯，你知道，自满和理所当然并不是成功的秘诀，但最有可能的结果是商品和服务都很充裕，嗯，那当然是我们正在前往的方向，呃，呃，是的，是的，当我，当我上次见到你，很可能我们所处的地方，很可能，是的，当当我上次见到你时，你说，你知道，肯定有一堆

在 AGI 之后，而且我看到，你知道，当时你在谈论，呃，Optimus，顺便说一下，它太棒了，我们就从这里开始吧，祝贺你，嗯，好吧，谢谢，我的意思是 Optimus，我需要确保 Optimus，你知道，不会导致，它不会增加文明风险，嗯，你知道，因为你不会想要，比如说有 10 亿个这种东西，或者由中央控制，嗯，除非，除非，会出什么问题呢，有人把它拍成电影了吗，除非它们服从你，嗯，我认为它们不应该服从任何任何一个“珀索内申”，是的，就像我认为你必须拥有“洛”、本地控制，但，嗯，它必须去中心化，嗯，因为任何中央，呃，控制都会有问题，嗯，因为你就是不能，比如说，可能会有一个失控的 AI 接管，我的意思是，简直就是电影，一个失控的 AI，你

知道吧，《终结者》，呃，以某种方式接管了，控制了，嗯，控制所有那些，你知道，Optimus 机器人的母舰，或者类似的东西，嗯，那是，呃，你基本上需要让它“去中……”，需要让那种情况不可能发生。嗯，让我问你，我一直很喜欢把你的公司结合起来，因为这就像，你知道，你知道，就像，呃，呃，Reese's 花生酱杯，嗯，你知道，斯特林克和、和、和，呃，和、和星舰结合起来。那么 Optimus 和 Neuralink 呢？我什么时候可以通过我的 Neuralink 连接接入一个 Optimus？嗯，希望第一个神经链接会，第一个新链接，嗯，植入人体，希望很快，可能这个月或，或下个月。现在这最初真的只是试图让，嗯，你知道，四、四肢瘫痪者

和四肢瘫痪者，嗯，获得控制他们手机和电脑的能力。它，它基本上就像第一个，第一个产品是心灵感应，本质上，嗯，嗯，或者念力，嗯，而且，呃，然后第2个产品，呃，暂时叫作 Blind sight（盲视），在那里，呃，我们可以恢复视力，即使某个人，呃，已经，呃，失去了双眼和他们的“光学诺夫”。太神奇了。嗯，直接连接视觉皮层。对，对，正是。现在这些东西都已经在猴子身上起作用了，嗯，而且，呃，我只是想再次强调，没有，没有猴子曾经因为 Neuralink 而死亡，嗯，我们对待我们的猴子非常好。上次，上次我跟你谈这件事时，你当时在，呃，你当时在和 Pager 玩 Pong，我想是这样。嗯，实际上事实证明猴子喜欢玩电子游戏

游戏，嗯，它们，它们，它们真的就像我们一样。我的意思是，它们，它们，它们喜欢，呃，吃、吃零食和玩电子游戏。我要把这件事告诉我12岁的儿子们。对，我的意思是，你，你看到 Pedro 玩的那段视频，你知道，嗯，猴子的意念，你知道，通过心灵感应玩 Pong，通过心灵感应。他没有受到任何形式的束缚，只是坐在，在那种树枝上喝着冰沙，喝着冰沙，喝一杯冰沙并玩 Pong。对，他没有被按住，你知道。嗯，事实上，当我们拿走他的电子游戏时，他会不高兴，就像，就像人，就像我们的孩子一样。那，那太棒了。而且，而且这，我的意思是，让盲人重见光明，我的意思是，这是《圣经》里的事情。而且，而且这又回到了最初的，呃，你知道，开启新

的一年，以积极心态、富足心态、指数型心态、登月式心态，对吧，我，而且我想，我希望你同意，比如我认为，对于企业家和正在收听的人来说，比如我们拥有的唯一最重要的东西就是我们的心态，我们如何看待世界。我的意思是，你同意吗？对，对，我的意思是，你可以选择成为，我的意思是，我认为幸福是一种决定。我的意思是，莱利，我的意思是，显然有些人存在化学物质失衡，但，呃，对大多数人来说，快乐和不快乐之间的区别，就是决定要快乐。多年来，我尝试过许多间歇性禁食方案，呃，事实是，我已经放弃间歇性禁食，因为在长寿方面，我没有看到真正的益处，但这改变了

当我发现一种名为 ProLon 5 天禁食营养计划的东西时，它利用了自噬过程，这是一种细胞回收过程，能在分子层面让你的身体焕发活力，而仅仅进行 1 个周期的 5 天 ProLon 禁食营养计划，就能帮助实现健康衰老、以减脂为重点的体重下降、改善能量水平等等，这是一个无痛的过程，过去 1 年里我每年做 2 次，当你访问我的专属网址时，可以让订单享受 15% 的优惠，前往 prolon life。

com p r o l n l。

com back slm moonshot，今天就通过 prolong 开始你的长寿之旅。现在回到节目。我想花一点时间向每一位正在收听的人，呃，呃，指出一件事。呃，你知道，埃隆，那是在，呃，2021年，呃，我当时在给你发短信，而且，呃，我说你应该资助另一个 exerprise。多年前你资助过一个 exerprise，教坦桑尼亚中部的孩子们阅读、写作和算术，没有任何成年人，周围没有学校，只是给了他们一台平板电脑，软件必须教会他们，而那取得了惊人的成功。然后在21年，嗯，我问你是否愿意办一个碳移除 exerprise，而且，呃，你几乎立刻就答应了，嗯，我们在3个月后启动了它。那就像是有史以来从答应到启动 xprize 最快的一次，嗯，所以谢谢你

如果可以的话，我想快速向你介绍一下它的最新情况。不客气。嗯，当然。好吧，嗯，我希望教育 ex prise 和碳移除 ex prise 会让你好结果出来，他们，我相信。我们有6,000支团队报名参加碳移除奖，嗯，在我们逐步筛选之际，目前有1300支活跃团队仍在竞赛中，呃，呃，大约36%，460支专注于从空气中捕集碳，呃，4 30支专注于陆地相关的捕集，240支专注于海洋相关的捕集，嗯，而且我们已经送出了你的2000万美元，其中500万美元给学生，1500万美元给那，每支100万美元给前15支团队。决赛将在2年后，于2025年地球日举行，而且，呃，有趣的是，你知道，获胜团队需要展示，呃，呃，百万吨级捕集，并且能够扩展到

G 级捕集，所以仅决赛就将捕集400万吨，呃，碳，这是如今每年完成量的2倍。所以，呃，到目前为止进展不错。很好，那，那听起来不错。嗯，好吧，随着我们，随着我们，呃，随着我们开始收尾，对于富足，你还想对人们说些什么？你对这里的人还有什么心态方面的想法？嗯，呃，好吧，我，我，我，我确实认为，呃，人类的出生率太低了，就像我一直在说的那样，嗯。只要长寿，宝贝，我正用长寿解决这个问题。我要让人们活得更久。好吧，还有机器人和人工智能，当然。嗯，但我的意思是，这只是，呃，目前的情况很严峻，博士。对，对，对，对。嗯，我的意思是，很多国家都，嗯，你知道，如果你看看，比如说，比如说韩国、意大利，对，它们

它们每一代大约失去一半人口。对，嗯，这意味着3代之后，它们会变成当前规模的10分之一，而且，而且，而且剩下的一个1，嗯，会非常年老。对。呃，这些数字，各位，世代更替所需的数字是2。

平均每个家庭1个孩子，而，嗯，欧洲是1.5，嗯，亚洲，呃，从1950年代的5.7降到了今天的1.9，这太疯狂了。呃，北美从大约3降到了1。

6。我们美国低于世代更替水平，嗯，而且这，这是一个问题。我的意思是，我们，我们需要这个星球上有聪明人。对，好吧，我的意思是，你知道，如果我们不制造新的人类，我们就不会有人类，嗯，而且，而且即使有长寿，呃，我们会活得更久，但我们不会永远活着。呃，所以我认为我们只是需要，这，这个，你知道，我担心的是，好像很多人认为这个星、星球人口过多，而这是导致低出生率的因素之一，嗯。事实上，我遇到的一些人认为，他们不生孩子基本上是在当殉道者，而那只是，那就是不真实的。嗯，我认为我们应该，呃，采取这样的立场：我们，我们，我们实际上有生孩子的公民责任，至少要让，呃，人类人口保持不变

嗯，理想情况下我们应该让人口增长，但至少不应该出现人口崩塌，而这正是我们目前面临的情况。我，我认为人们害怕未来，我的意思是，我听到的那些说法是：我不想把孩子带到这个世界上，这里太危险了，AI 会毁灭人类，呃，环境，你知道，我们正在破坏环境，诸如此类。所以我认为，其中一部分是让人们对未来持乐观态度，呃，而不是悲观；正如你在这个、这个空间一开始所说的，这是我的、我的使命之一。如果人们认为世界正在变得更好，而且他们也参与了让它变得更好，呃，你绝对是这样做的。嗯，是的，我，我认为人们应该对未来持乐观态度。嗯，他们仍然，地球可以

承载远比目前存在的人类多得多的人口，嗯，而，呃，危险不是人口爆炸，而是人口崩塌。嗯，所以我只想鼓励尽可能多的人，呃，生孩子，而且最好生很多孩子，因为他们，他们将弥补那些不管出于什么原因不生的人。各位，今晚多买一瓶酒吧。是的，这是件大事。嗯，那么你会不会，你会不会，让我们，让我们以关于 AI 和 AGI 的讨论收尾，我知道很多人一直对此感兴趣，而且，而且，而且人们对 AI 确实存在恐惧。嗯，你会说些什么来打消人们的顾虑？我的意思是，这，你，你已经，你，我听你说过，我们挺过去的概率是 80%，而我们需要防范下行风险。嗯，你能谈谈这个吗？什么，怎样，怎样才能让人们在离开时更加

乐观而不是悲观地看待这件事？以及你，你怎么看，你知道，是进行遏制，还是塑造我们训练 AI 系统的方式？你认为我们该如何驾驭，呃，超级数字超级智能？嗯，AI 增长的速度，它确实令人难以置信。是的。嗯，所以目前看来，投入人工智能的算力，嗯，大约每 6 个月增长 10 倍。嗯，它，它肯定比每年增长更快。所以，嗯，我的意思是，我，我最近今天听说了一个吉瓦级的，呃，AI，呃，计算集群。哇。嗯，我想它正在科威特或者类似的地方建设。嗯，而且它像是有 700,000 个，嗯，V100，呃，这高了几代，高出了两代

那是 Curr 正在生产中的，所以这是惊人数量的算力。嗯，而且，而且还有许多这样的、这样的东西。那只是我目前听说过最大的一个，但还有，有一个 500 兆瓦的设施正在建设，嗯，还有，还有，还有多个 100、100 兆瓦的设施，嗯，正在筹建。我，我，我甚至不清楚你要拿这么多，嗯，算力做什么。嗯，因为当你，当你真正把人类有史以来创造的所有数据加在一起时，呃，你很快就会用光可供训练的东西。嗯，比如，你，你知道，如果你大概有，我不知道，20,000 或 30,000 个 H100，你几乎可以用合成数据训练了。是的，是的，基本上你必须，必须有合成数据，嗯，因为只需要远低于 100,000 个 H100，你就可以用所有

人类有史以来创造的数据进行训练，包括视频。呃，嗯，而且不，而且不仅算力是主要的稀缺资源，专注于这个领域的，呃，创业者数量、流入这个领域的资本规模，呃，以及可用数据的数量，我的意思是，这一切都在增长，而且都在彼此促进。所以就是，你知道，回应你关于它进步速度的观点，我想到的，我认为是“惊人”这个词，或者说令人震惊。是的，它，它确实令人震惊，而且，而且肯定是。嗯，所以我只是想让人感受一下规模。我从未见过任何东西发展得这么快，任何、任何技术都没有，这是发展最快的东西。所以，嗯，就以实现 AI 安全为目标而言，我的、我的最佳猜测，来自我的某种原始生物学

NE 人类，是，是我们应该，呃，以最大限度追求真相以及、以及好奇心为目标。嗯，那，那是，那是，那是我关于如何让 AI 尽可能安全的直觉感受。如果对道德进行编程，并用一个明确的道德程序，危险就在于有时所谓的 Waluigi 问题：如果你创造了 Luigi，通过反转 Luigi，你就会自动创造 Waluigi。当然。嗯，所以，嗯，所以我认为我们，我们必须谨慎对待编程，以及，你知道，某种任意的道德。嗯，但是，但是，如果，如果我们专注于在承认错误的情况下最大限度追求真相，那，那很可能，我认为那就是最大限度提高安全性的方式。嗯，而且，而且还要让 AI 保持好奇。嗯，因为我认为，你知道，对于先进 AI 来说

有人的地球要比没有人的地球更有趣。我有一个，我同意你的看法。现在有一个有趣的问题：你认为伴随庞大智能而来的，会是，呃，显著的同理心和对生命的尊重吗？是的，我认为会，因为那是，那是这里彩虹尽头的希望，即，呃，我不想使用 AGI 这个词，我会用超级数字超级智能作为一个、作为一个术语。呃，拥有一个能够更加仁慈并支持我们的数字超级智能，因为有时我不确定我们这些软乎乎的肉袋子能不能挺过我们自己、我们自己搞出来的，呃，狗屁问题。嗯，所以也许这里存在某种价值。嗯，我，你知道，我认为总的来说，AI 是我们有史以来发明的最重要的一项技术，它将提升全体人类，我

认为这就是你说的，你知道，AGI 之后便是富足。呃，我认为问题在于未来 1 到 4 年的过渡期，对吧？它不是人工智能，而是人类的愚蠢。是的。嗯，我的意思是，AI 可能出错的一种方式，是把灭绝主义哲学编入 AI，无论是隐含地还是明确地。我的意思是，可能不会明确编入，但存在一种强烈的危险，即一种隐含的灭绝主义哲学被编入 AI。嗯，你知道，而且，而且那会是什么样子？那会是什么样子？嗯，比如大约 1 年前，《纽约时报》头版上有这么一个人。嗯，他是灭绝主义协会的负责人，而报道确实引用他说，地球上有 80 亿人，如果那里

一个人都没有会更好。哦，我的天。以及，是的。嗯，所以，呃，如果你，如果你接受极端环保主义者的论点，尤其是像那种隐含的极端环保主义者论点，嗯，他们，他们有一个隐、隐含的结论，即人类是地球表面的一场瘟疫。嗯，所以我们，我认为我们必须非常谨慎地对待，嗯，一种、一种隐含的，比如，比如，如果灭绝主义运动以某种方式被编入 AI，成为、成为优化目标，那将极其危险。是的，至少可以这么说。嗯，是的，而且但是，你知道，有，有，有人，实际上有相当多的人，把人类，嗯，视为 oan 表面上的祸害。是的，而在那里，我们，我们归结到有，你知道，加速主义运动、减速运动、繁荣派

和末日派。嗯，但我认为人们忘了意识到，或者没有意识到，忘了这样一个事实：你知道，呃，我们把过去浪漫化了，而过去的生活短暂、野蛮，而且你到 40 岁就死了。嗯，你知道，我们今天享受的生活，是我们运用非凡技术的结果。嗯，是的，那个，比如，你知道，霍布斯，生活是肮脏的、brsh 的，而且，嗯，我，我其实，我，我曾经养过一只小约克夏 terer，嗯，它，呃，肮脏、野蛮又矮小，还不停地、不停地咬人，所以我叫它 hob。太合适了。我会告诉那些、那些来访的朋友，小心那只狗，而，而他们会看着这只迷你约克 ter 然后大笑，接着它就会咬他们的脚踝，而我说，小心，我说，小心那个，呃，你知道，那个灭绝主义模因是同一种

你知道，在它开始，呃，成为一种思想病毒之前，你会低估它，呃，部分就像你所称的那样，而它开始扰乱我们，是的。嗯，如果你让人们相信，你知道，我们正在耗尽地球上的资源，世界上的人太多了，而生存的唯一方式就是减少人口，很多人相信情况就是如此，而就像我说的，如果这点，如果这点以某种方式被编程进 AI，而那个 AI 成为最强大的 AI，那么我们就有大麻烦了。呃，是的，我们需要反制《人口炸弹》。我是说，这对人类造成了何等非同寻常的伤害。嗯，是的，er 的书是一场可怕的噩梦，也许是有史以来最反人类的书，是的，当然，当然。嗯，但是从另一方面给人们希望，呃，那些

那些人又在说，回到“我不想抚养我的孩子”这件事，因为我一直听到这种话，我相信你也一样，在一个 AI 将要毁灭我们的时代。所以，嗯，短期问题、长期问题、短期解决方案、长期解决方案。你说让它保持好奇，让它，呃，最大限度地寻求真相，100%。嗯，嗯，说我们短期内会遇到问题，而且我们将不得不应对这些问题，这样说可以吗，还是你认为不会有？会有，会有，会有一些问题。嗯，我是说，从本质上讲，现在已经没有办法阻止 AI 了。它，它正在加速发展，无论人们喜欢与否。嗯，我是说，那就是，那就是，呃，那就是为什么我们和一些非常聪明的人一起创建了，呃，xAI。嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，希望，你知道，一些真正

渺小的人类会继续加入 xAI，并且打造，呃，一个旨在最大限度寻求真相、最大限度保持好奇的，嗯，AI。嗯，不管怎样，我认为那，那真的很重要。嗯，所以听着，我代表我们这些人，我想也代表这里所有正在收听的人，那些支持人类、支持提升人类的人，嗯，让我们成为一个多行星物种，并且，呃，活得更长、更健康。而我在 X 上与你意见不一致的一个地方，是关于，呃，你知道，让人们活得更久。新思想的出现并不需要人们死去。你知道，Ford 和 GM 的 CEO 不必死去，Tesla 才能诞生。所以我们，呃，是的，呃，你知道，我只是想说，感谢你所做的一切，以及为外面的其他、其他

实业家和企业家树立榜样，去承担，呃，并解决那些极其巨大的问题。好吧，呃，谢谢。嗯，我会鼓励人们对未来保持乐观。嗯，喜欢，或者站在乐观这一边。嗯，你会因此更快乐。嗯，而且正如你指出的，或许也会活得更久。所以，而且我不是，我并不完全反对延长寿命。我，我认为我们确实，我们，你知道，嗯，我们想要成为——我不认为我们一定想让人永远活着，那样，或者活非常长，比如数千年。我认为那可能会导致社会的 OIC。它，它，它会，我认为，会导致社会的 oif。嗯，但是，但是我的意思是，解决痴呆症，以及，嗯，你知道，治愈癌症，我认为显然是好事。嗯，所以，所以我不确定我们的分歧实际上有那么大

撇开延寿这件事，嗯，我想我们大概、可能在很大程度上意见一致。嗯，我，是的，我们只是不想出现那种，你知道，你能不能活……比如说，你想让金正恩活1,000年吗？不想。但我、我希望、我希望埃隆·马斯克和彼得·戴曼迪斯活到150岁，还有外面另外几千位了不起的企业家。当然。嗯，所以这是、这是一个，你知道，确实存在这样一个挑战：很多人其实从不改变自己的想法，他们只是死去。而这其实，我不确定最初是谁说的，但即使是在极其严谨的物理学领域，嗯，你知道，那个、你知道，物理学在很多情况下也是随着一次又一次的死亡而进步的。是的，我的朋友布赖恩·基廷，他是一位、一位天体物理学家，提醒了我

这件事，而且、而且也许确实如此，但在这个创业世界里，我认为我们在很大程度上的确生活在一个任人唯贤的环境中，而最好的想法可以比以往任何时候都更快地冒到顶层，嗯，尤其是现在有了AI，你可以用几个人和大量技术打造公司，你知道，非凡的公司。所以，是的，嗯，我还有最后一个问题，然后，呃、呃，我知道你那里到晚餐时间了，呃、呃，X、xAI的未来，嗯，你对它有什么愿景，伙计？嗯，就像我刚才说的，我认为通往AI安全的道路，是打造一个最大限度追求真相、承认存在误差、并且最大限度保持好奇心的AI。我认为，嗯，我认为这最有可能为人类带来一个好的结果，嗯，因为我们、我们要有趣得多

比、比、比非人类有趣得多。比如、比如显然，你知道，我非常喜欢Ms，但m就没那么有趣了，因为那里没有人类文明，嗯，而且，嗯，以人类为例，我们、我们、我们本可以追捕所有黑猩猩并杀死它们，但我们没有，事实上，我们还努力保护它们的栖息地。嗯，我们……所以不管怎样，我认为那、那是一条通往美好未来的道路，而一个最大限度积极的AI，应当严谨地追求真相，始终承认存在一定程度的误差，并且、并且最大限度地保持好奇心。嗯，那就是、那就是XI的、的目标，呃，而且你知道，公司的MTO是理解宇宙，呃，而那是一个、那是一个很好的使命，而且、而且需要一点时间才能完成。我等不及第一个，呃，AI能够

提出新的物理学理论，嗯，还有新的创新，那将会……我是说，我认为那并不遥远，而且我认为那将会是有史以来最令人惊叹的生存时代之一。确实，比如我们、我们无疑生活在最有趣的时代。其实有一阵子，我因为AI而有些沮丧，但后来我、我对此有点宿命论了，并说，比如，好吧，即使、即使AI将会，你知道，终结全、全人类，我是宁愿活着亲眼看到它，还是不愿意？我、我想我宁愿活着看到它，嗯，只是出于好奇。但我显然希望AI对人类极其有益。不过、不过让我算是释然、不再那么焦虑的一点，是对自己说，好吧，我想即使那是一场末日灾难，我还是会好奇

去看看那……就像，你知道，我会好奇地去看它。我记得在你卖掉洛杉矶这里的其中一处住宅之前，我参加过你在那里举办的生日派对，呃，拉里·佩奇在那里，谢尔盖也在那里，我们当时在讨论生活在模拟之中的问题。当时的说法是，这是……我们正处于游戏进程的第99关，而这肯定是一个模拟，因为你不可能……为什么会、为什么会恰好活在此时此刻，活在这个最有趣的时代？然后，呃，唯一的评论是，别戳这个模拟，否则就会结束。是的，是的。嗯，如果我们身处模拟之中，让这个模拟继续下去的、的、的方法就是继续保持有趣。所以，比如，人类会运行大量计算机模拟，因为我们、我们、我们不知道结果会怎样，而且我们

很好奇，想看看。我们会运行大量模拟，比如、比如会运行碰撞模拟，SpaceX会运行，你知道，火箭飞行模拟，而且，嗯，我们只会在、在结果极其可预测且无聊时停止进行模拟。是的。所以，如果我们身处某台外星人的计算……这是个很棒的论点，太完美了，对吧？当一切都绝对已知时，如果我们、如果我们不、如果我们对那些，呃，数字之神或宇宙之神而言不够有娱乐性，他们就会让这个模拟着陆。是的，我们只需要确保收视率一直保持在高位。[笑声] 不过、不过这也是为什么我认为，比如，预测未来的方式之一是：从第三方的视角来看，最具娱乐性的结果最有可能发生，就仿佛我们是一部外星肥皂剧一样。我喜欢这个说法。

是的，比如，所以这对肥皂剧里的人来说未必是好事。比如你可能正在看一部第一次世界大战电影，看着，你知道，人们被炸飞，嗯，而你只是在吃爆米花、喝汽水，嗯，但我们、我们、我们就在电影里。嗯，是的，好吧，我们别在这里变得、别变得反乌托邦，因为我认为我们可以拥有一个、我们可以拥有一个、我们可以拥有一个非常积极的结果，还有很多其他很酷的东西。嗯，是的，当然。我认为最有可能的结果是积极的，而且、而且我认为如果你，你知道……而且我认为这在一定程度上是一种自我实现的预言。如果你不这么相信，如果你相信结果将是反乌托邦式的，那么你就会退缩自保，而不去投资未来，随后一切就会瓦解，而这，是的。

而且、而且所以，你知道，我认为整个空间传达的信息是：这是最非凡的生存时代，最令人兴奋的生存时代；在这个时代，你知道，正在收听Spaces的很多、很多个人，拥有的力量比国王、女王或国家元首在仅仅几十年前拥有的还要大。如今解决问题不再需要政府或大公司。你知道，一位拥有一些、几块H100的企业家就能做得很好。是的，我、我认为我们应该偏向乐观，嗯，我们应该、我们应该偏向乐观，而且我们应该生孩子。比如，呃，你知道，犯错是人之常情，而h e i r，以及繁衍，是人之常情。好了，伙计，听着，非常感谢你抽出时间，感谢你的分享。不客气。好了。

谢谢，彼得，保重，伙计。[音乐] 再见，n

following is a Year's conversation I had with Elon Musk arguably the greatest entrepreneur of our time perhaps the greatest entrepreneur ever during this conversation which is called the coming age of abundance we talk about how Technologies including Ai and humanoid Robotics are creating a world of abundance uplifting Humanity across Food Water Energy Healthcare education we'll be talking about longevity we'll be talking about AI we'll be talking about the decreasing global population and what are the reasons that you should have for being optimistic about the future join me happy New Year Yan happy New Year 2024 I love Yeah it feels like the future it is the future it is the future it's going to be awesome um you know I'm hoping we get a little bit

of conversation on some hope and good news for folks on this uh on this spaces I think people can use it you are the most optimistic person that I know of by far and uh I mean I guess it is a refreshing to to hear such optimism I I think people need I think people need a positive mindset I think it's self-fulfilling prophecy to a large degree you know if you're pessimistic and we can talk about how the news media just decimates our minds uh constantly uh yeah the news is so negative I mean it makes me sad to read the news frankly I I well let me ask you a question I don't watch I don't watch Network news and I don't read any newspapers they couldn't pay me enough money yeah to do that time I I'll accidentally read the news and I'll just be sad it's insane

well I mean as you as you know the the news The Daily News um um really really attempts to answer the question what is the worst thing that happened on Earth today it is and and and and let me show let me show it to you every 5 minutes in your living room over and over and over again yeah and it's a big world there's eight billion people on Earth so you know somewhere on Earth something horrible is happening every single day but there's also great things happening every single day you know what I call CNN the crisis News Network or the constantly negative newth Network and the problem is if they've got to scare you otherwi yeah you know if they say hey it's been a pretty good day overall um you know violence is an alltime low yeah we've got more access

to food energy water healthc care education on the pl than ever before I mean people would just start watching horror movies I think instead yeah yeah the challenge is it's uh it's our neural Nets the wiring of our brains you know evolved in a world of constant danger and so we're sort of just wired for fear and scarcity constantly Yeah well yeah I think You' made this point um maybe others have which it it sort of makes sense as a as an evolutionary asymmetry that we would respond more to Danger than to reward um in that like the consequences of danger could be fatal like it could be like well if you go over there there's a lion that's going to eat you or some neighboring tribe that's going to kill you and it's game over yeah your jeans are out of the

Jean Pool yeah you're you're out whereas say like uh news that there there's a there's a a nice bush with berries over there it's it's nice to have it's it's optional um but it's the in one case you die in other case you're you're hungry but death is worse than hunger so so that's is B basically we're any anyone who did not respond more to negative news than positive news didn't make it they were they were select they were selected against for sure that sucks yes I mean anyone who was complacent about where the lion was e by L and and you know the reality is you know the news media has one job to deliver your eyeballs to their advertisers and when we pay 10 times more attention to negative news and positive news that's all we get 24/7 so I mean listen

I I it's yeah it is I mean I do get my my news invariably you know on my on my feed on X but I also get all the great things happening in the world because I can selectively choose to watch that but when you're watching TV or you know in the newspaper uh some editor someplace or some producers deciding what gets fed into your mind and it can really with your mindset um yes exactly so I mean this this space is uh uh called it the coming age of abundance and you know you were really when my first book came out abundance the future is better than you think uh you were super supportive and I and I appreciate that was 12 years ago and I think the story whoa 12 years amazing yeah and it's gotten so much better um so I it is in so many ways not not every way

I mean I mean obviously we go back ways um the the I I I remember when we were at Ado's party in Brazil yeah how Longo he was it was his 40th or was it his 30th I don't no was it was this was just when SpaceX was just when I was forming space yeah it was it was 2003 there about it just before the X prise Was Won right I was trying to convince you not to build Rockets 21 years ago could like like you could have a kid that that has could legally or legally up kids yeah yeah um so 21 years ago uh yeah so and you know things things are mostly better most you I want to give everybody listening a dose of Hope and optimism on the abundance inside because the world has gone better in so many ways all you hear about is the negative constantly and I think that's

going back to our sort of core dystopian mindsets from you know evolving 100,000 years ago but if we just look at some of the look at some of the areas right so like Global extreme poverty right I mean what's more what's what's a more important metric you know here are the numbers 90% of the world was in global extreme poverty in in the 1800s in 1981 it was 42% today it's under 10% of the world right yeah hunger Hunger is actually rare and it used to be common exactly um and another one is obviously one har that you're leading the charge on is energy you know we used to kill whales to get whale oil to light our nights and we ravaged mountainsides and we drilled kilometers under the ground uh and what's the figure it's like 8,000 times more energy hits

the surface of the Sun surface of the Earth from the Sun than we consume as a species what's the rate at which batteries and solar is increasing it's it must be massive yes I mean uh I mean Tesla we we've made a couple of presentations what one sort of simplistic and then one in extreme detail um on how to make Earth completely uh self- sustaining from an energy standpoint and demonstrating that there that there is no that if you break down all of the materials for lithium ion battery and for solar um you can easily make earth uh not I mean there there's no shortage material it's easy it's a lot of work obviously um but but but there's not like some critical material that we don't have enough of in order to make earth fully self- sustaining um even if

the only way that you powered all of Industry on Earth and and all power including heating um and transport uh electrically you could do that with solar and leine batteries um and and not uh not come anywhere close to depleting the resources of Earth yeah um my favorite my favorite example there was uh back in the 1800s the most precious metal on the planet was aluminum it was more precious than gold uh and and platinum and even though the Earth's crust is you know 8% boxy you know basically aluminum it was just so energetically difficult it wasn't that it was scarce it just wasn't in usable form yet and that's what technology does it takes something which is scarce and not usable and makes it usable right so yeah yeah ex aluminum oxide is extremely common

um and um but but it is it is a low energy state in fact thermite thermite thermite is just uh iron oxide rust and and and pure aluminum um and the the energy difference between uh iron oxide and aluminum oxide is so great that it generates incredible enough heat to melt through steel so that's what thermite is so uh yeah you do need a lot of energy to um turn aluminum oxide into aluminum um but but yeah it in World War II there was a massive scarcity of aluminum for aircraft sure um and uh that in fact in Britain the the mosquito uh sort of fighter bomber was U made of mostly of wood um and but it was it was done with uh it was basically an early form of of of composits but using stiff wood on the on the outside and and Lightwood and like Balsa on as

a sandwich structure it's pretty clever and the whole thing was intended to to address the shortage of and that and then then we get technology we get better uh better mechanisms of extracting the aluminum from the from the aluminum oxide from the boxy and this happens over and over again in fact that's just what we do I mean I think the number was last year in 2023 or maybe in 22 we had more new electricity production from solar than from any other form and and and you've done an extraordinary job on battery production yeah and the battery production is growing um actually almost at well at several times the rate of vehicle production so um you know in some cases almost 10x the rate of vehicle production um so so yes the there's a massive demand for

batteries and you know as as the world uses more uh electricity uh there's actually a lot more capability that the grid has if you can buffer the energy uh then without it because the vast majority of electrical sure it's wasted assume no they assume no buffering um so they have to size the power plants for for Peak output Peak power output which is typically a hot summer day um and and and then for at night you can have anywhere from half optimistically half power output to sometimes one/ tenth of the power output um so so so basically the the grid almost everywhere the grid is sized for excess um electrical power output um and if you just buffer it with batteries uh you can in increase the output of the grid uh by you know two or three times I mean

to make to make the point here on the abundance theme um there is no limitation on energy right we are increasing the amount of energy per capita and there's a direct correlation between uh the GDP of a nation and its energy production right and the direct correlation between health and education and energy everything scales as you increase the energy per capita of a Nation yeah yeah um I talk about another category Communications um another area that you're revolutionizing I think the number right now I just was uh checking it earlier it's like 6.

9 billion smartphone users in 2023 like 8 86% and that's what I got when I when I Googled it um I don't know what 6.

9 you know what to say yeah uh 6,900 million 6,900 million let go there that my my my 12-y olds would say the same uh it's like 85 85% of the planets got a smartphone and uh uh and well I mean if if you add up the total number of smartphones uh uh made ever made it exceeds oh I think it so it's it's amazing so we've gone from like zero telepan to the majority vast majority of the planet in under a century um you know global internet as well the same thing and uh did I your your next iteration of starlink uh spacecraft have gone up uh the direct to cell phone okay uh yes that just went up um so you know we still have to prove that it works and all but um we're confident that even if the if these early satellites don't work we're confident from from a physics

standpoint that it can work um it it's it is h a challenge because we have to emulate uh a cells celf tower on the ground in order for the phones to accept the signal so we have to do do compensation for example um and and and and do some sort of because because you've got a speed of light limitations pal if if it were easy it would have been done already yeah yeah some speed of light limitations so you know this this like light is is so fast and yet so slow um so um you know I I yeah a good way to think about light at least in the space context uh or for the low or context is is it travels about 300 km every millisecond um in in air or uh in in space and and then and then around just over 200 kilm per per millisecond uh in fiber hey everyone I want to

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com moonshots and use the code Peter 25 to get your 25% off the first month of seeds daily symbiotic trust me your gut will thank you all right let's go back to the episode you know another abundance area is Health um I hear some some kids in the background there so interestingly enough you know child mortality I mean probably uh I mean this is one that hits me the most in terms of increasing abundance child mortality under the age of five was 42% a couple hundred years ago it was a coin flip of whether your kid survived um and it's decreased now to under 5% and it's gone down by 50% in the last 30 years um so just childhood mortality and women dying in child birth all of these things people don't think about when they're listening to all in news on and

all the issues and then life expectancy my favorite subject uh has gone up from you know 30 years old to uh to 75 plus I still disagree with you on longevity though that that we should solve it or not like we should you think we should solve well I I listen I'm not necessarily saying live forever but I'd like to make it to 120 um I yeah I I sort of wonder if we should not Sol it too soon um just presidential elections expect first and and do you really want them to get that life expectancy first well uh you know you know I I I think we uh I think uh being able to have the Vitality the cognition the physical prowess uh you know that you have when you're in your 40s or 50s through the age of 100 that's my goal um I mean you don't want to you don't want

to you know you want to make it to at least 100 don't you um well I guess it does depend on whether I'm you know have dementia I I don't think I'd want to be a burden on society or have dementia not know what's going on um i' prefer it to be dead well yeah I think that's that's for sure uh but let's assume that you had you know all the cognitive power you have today your physical strength is there any reason why you wouldn't want to you know have an extended lifespan or health span yeah sure um I I guess I I think we are end up there's such a strong forcing function for Life Extension or health span extension that I think we will see uh advancers in that area whether I want them to be there or not um and actually my opinion on the subject is that it's

I I think it's actually not that hard to solve uh because the if you just consider arguments of symmetry it's are quite helpful the the the cells in our body all age age at basic almost exactly the same speed um like what like I've not seen anyone who has an old left arm and a young right arm I've never seen that not even once yes so how how are the cells communicating and how what is keeping them what is synchronizing their behavior um something there's there's a very clear mechanism for synchronizing aging among the 30 to 40 trillion cells in your body like depending on your body mass you're typically going to have 30 to 40 trillion cells that's correct you know keep you know in sync um I mean the other the other the other reference uh proof point is

you know boohead whales one the largest mammals can make it to 200 years repeatedly Greenland sharks can make it to 500 years and have babies at 200 years old I remember when I was in medical school hearing that I said you know why can they why can't we I said it's either an engineering problem or software problem a hardware problem or software problem and I think I think this is one of the biggest areas AI is going to give us is a real understanding and then to your other point about your left arm arm and right arm you know when you have a baby uh woman's 30 35 you're 40 45 your baby starts out at zero yeah um I I do find it remarkable that we decompress from a single cell to um an adult human and then and then we you know to procreate compressed back

down to a single cell that is fascinating you know I mean you look you sort of look look at yourself as a sort of you know Blas assist and say like I haven't changed a bit here we go again let's recycle it's like it's like the big bang it's like right the Big Crunch um you know one of the things people argue about on extended Health span uh and you know increasing the population getting to 100 120 150 and there's a concept called Longevity Escape velosophy right that there's going to be a point at which for every year you're alive science is extending your life for more than a year and that's an interesting uh idea to think about um in which case you know accidents become really uh a thing to be concerned about um they concern about overpopulation and

and you've you've hit this multiple times right the and I saw you Tweeting about it or sorry you're Xing about it today uh sorry uh but it's you know overpopulation is one of the biggest myths and biggest uh false over population is outer BS yeah um you know and and you know it's it's such nonsense um Earth is UN underpopulated not overpopulated with under look out the window when you're flying across the country it's empty absolutely exactly it's like if you say like if your goal was to like flying from aliot to New York to drop a bowling ball on a human you would fail um you know I think one of one of my goal I think the greatest gift we can give people in this abundance world is increased Health span I mean when you think about what people want they

want happiness and they want Health right no one wants to die in a painful cancer or or uh dementia um so yeah and you know I I have extended to you many times my friend come down to Fountain Health let me put you through our our program the world needs you around for another 30 30 years okay well what do you have any what should I do let's say well I mean so there two what actions can be taken two this could be helpful for listeners two on on this discussion yeah so they're two there are three things you need to know number one is there anything going on inside your body that you don't know about so the body is amazingly good at hiding disease so we found in our seemingly healthy adults 2% have a cancer they don't know about two and a half% 2% 2 and

a half% have an aneurysm 14.

4% either have metabolic disease coronary disease uh neurogenerative disease and okay and so your body is incredibly good at hiding disease all right so you don't actually uh feel any cancer until stage three or stage four 70% of all heart attacks have no precedence your body is compensating constantly and you know for most of us we know more about what's going inside our cars or airplanes than we do our bodies yeah I had a question for you how many how many sensors are going up on on Starship when you're launching how many Star sensors are going are on board that vehicle rough order magnitude getting back data uh well I guess there's when you count everything up there's several thousand sensors and if I were I mean there are 33 engin so they they count

from the bul of sure and but you also have uh uh stress sensors and looking what's going on in in the structures and avionics and Communications across all the subsystems and if I ask you how 39 engines including the uper stage so so there's several thousand sensors um and way more sensors than than yeah I was going to say if you if ask you how many sensors do you have in your body and so we don't look which is insane because we do have the technology now to look to determine is there anything going on I need to know about and when's a good time to find out about like now or what's likely to break what's likely to undergo failure cycles and then what's the most extraordinary Therapeutics available to extend the human lifespan so um I mean for me that's

that's uh that's a that's a big one let me ask you another another uh abundance uh theme which is education um do you think any of our schools today middle schools or high schools are preparing any of our kids for the future um well none that I know of well there might I mean there might probably are a few schools that are doing it but probably 99% of schools are not yeah uh schools are very slow slow to change um and and I think that there there there there is do seem to move away from teaching the fundamentals you know of uh writing well and math and history um you know I'm concerned about the whole work agenda and ideology perating through education agreed um and actually being destructive to education agreed I mean you know how do you think do you

have these thoughts I mean so at the end of the day I think our best our best healthc care and our best teachers are going to be AIS right that understand everything and they demonetize and they democratize every aspect mean the AI knows your your kids favorite color sports star movie star what they know the languages they know what they did today um I mean it's a way of giv every child on the planet the best education I mean you you funded back years ago if you remember the Global Learning X prise that we did we did a uh that we we demoed in Tanzania with AIS on tablets it was the earliest days of of AI imod mustak who you know was one of the uh winners of that competition who went on now to create stability um I mean the the challenge is I don't think

the Educational Systems are going to give up uh that control anytime soon um true well if I mean if I look at how my kids were educated they seem to be mostly educated by YouTube and Reddit yeah um and X as well I suppose um but they're constantly on the internet um that that seems to be and I guess a lot of cases these days uh Tik Tok unfortunately yeah yeah um so I think yeah the education situation is is problematic um not sure what to do about it um I think I think ultimately uh you know KH Academy is one step in the right direction um but I think part of it is getting our educational institutions to First realize they're not preparing kids for the world that's coming I mean this hits another point we are such linear thinkers right we're projecting

what we have and putting it out four or five years I don't think people let me ask you do you think people are ready for what the world's going to be like in 2030 uh no um I I don't know what the world's going to be like in 2030 so probably I wouldn't say that I'm necessarily the the we definitely live in the most interesting of times uh you know like this legally this Chinese saying that may you live in interesting times is is is a not a good thing um but I mean I I I think personally I would like to live in the most interesting of times and this is the most interesting of times I also think it's is the best time to be alive ever the only time more exciting than today is tomorrow I mean you know by what measure yeah we have environmental issues but I

think we have the best chance of solving those environmental issues with the technology we have now versus the technology we had 10 years ago yeah I well I generally think it's as as a as a general sort of rule of living it is it is better to ear on the side of being optimistic and wrong than pessimistic and right um if you're going to make if you're going to ear one side of the other better it's just a higher quality of life to ear on the side of being optimistic and risk being wrong than than than pessimistic um you know and you know and right I mean it's it's better to be you'll just have a just enjoy life yeah what optimism is is is is gonna make you happy there was a study of 14,000 people uh for it was 14,000 women and 1500 guys um and it showed

that uh opt those who had an optimistic mindset lived 14 to 15% longer than those who with a pessimistic mindset I mean mindsets a powerful thing and I think undervalued by almost everybody one my one of my favorite examples of This was um do you know what the environmental disaster of the 1880s and 1890s was I'm sure you know um of the is this is this back to whal no no it's it's it's another form of life it's a the HSE Manor uh disaster the the hored problem yes yeah what what is this hor well yeah no no you're right the I mean New York was was basically a a hor manure and and and urine uh and carcass it was it was terrible people brought their Motive Power I mean basically like if you think if you think you think New York subways are stinky right now

wait I mean try when it's just everywhere everywhere you know people everywhere people people moved from people moved into downtown New York Detroit Chicago they brought their Motive Power with them and and the articles in the 1880s and 90s and into the 1900s as you as you read this the projection was disaster it was going to be a disaster because hor horse horse manure was like grow they had like special parking lots for horeshit at the corner of every street well well I it seems like there's also a challenge because I think if a horse lives um you know for on the order of 15 years um that means 1/5th of all horses are kicking the bucket every year um so you just got and so so if you if you got like uh 300,000 horses it means you got 20,000 horses dropping

dead every year and then you need a horse to move the horse the dead horse or just or just cover it with Horseman or let it decompose yeah I mean it's going to be like decomposing horse caucuses throughout major cities then and then and then like it's like well whose whose dead horse is this are people are probably quick to claim a live not rushing to claim a but then and then Innovation came along and here comes the car and solves the problem and I think that's the problem that we keep on forgetting we we forget that we are incredibly Innovative at solving problems that's what humans are amazing at yeah yeah true true um um actually on the whale front I don't if you know back to the whales it's a whale of a tail whale Tales okay um the the so a lot of

people think that the um the the low point on whale uh population was was in the 1800s because you know whales were being hunted for for whale and whale oil yeah um but but actually the the low Point uh by far was in fact um uh in the mid 20th century uh because uh of a bureaucratic error in the Soviet Union okay this I have to year they they can't so they would always have these five-year plans and quotas uh for for how for whale tonnage um now it didn't they didn't actually have even a whether the whale tonnage was usable tonnage um in anyway they just had a quota for whale tonnage and what they would do in the sovi union they would just keep increasing the quota of everything every year every five years so the so the whale tonnage just got Higher and

Higher and Higher and and if you if you were a captain and you and you and you had a high whale tonnage you'd get a metal and a raise and if your whale tonnage was low you'd be sent to the G you get you get what you incentivized baby yes incentives matter and and so it it got to it to it just got to absurd levels um and you had Soviet whaling ships like going into uh you know us and Australian Waters to desperately trying to find whales and and they they would catch the whale weigh the whale and then dump the cus over I mean there there's there's a whole AET rabbit hole that you can go down on this and which is basically a lesson in the the folies of central planning so and this is the problem of keeping laws on the books way way after they're useful

to society well we do have actually have a fundamental uh issue with the accumulation of laws and regulations because they are Immortal um and humans are mortal as we were just discussing you know with life extension um so so naturally every year you're going to have this accumulation of laws and regulations um until eventually everything is legal I mean everything is illegal everything is illegal yes nothing is allowed because you have overlapping laws regulations and and some of which are in fact uh contradict each other um that whether you go left or right they're both left and right [Laughter] are um my God you know um it like SpaceX is I mean sham you know the doj in this respect in this particular case with it doj as you may know is suing SpaceX

for um hiring only a permanent residents and and um citizens of the US the reason um that we did this was because we were told uh very clearly that if we did not hire permanent residents uh of the United States that that would con constitute a violation of international trade tra traffic and arms regulations itar and the entire executive team of SpaceX and the board would go to prison sounds like a good motivation yes and so we we were literally told us by the government in very clear terms and and you mean you're well aware of it I well aware yes it's it's a nightmare um and we would like to which which by the way uh puts us in a non-competitive world against uh other nations yes it it's it's it's it's it's pretty bad so um but but then then then the

doj um you know is suing uh SpaceX um for not hiring Asylum Seekers now important Point here not Asylum those who have been granted Asylum those who are seeking Asylum there's a lot of those there's a lot of people seeking Asylum yes so we're damned if we do and damned if we don't so if if we hire someone who's not a perent residence we're breaking the law and if we don't hire someone who who's not a permanent resident we're breaking the law so what this is this is an example of the madness that we're facing um buddy I I want to compliment you on something which and I've seen I've known you for long enough to have seen you gone through this where you have bet everything over and over again you've bet uh your entire Fortune gone into debt to do the things

that you believe in and I I I have a question to ask you which I've been dying to ask and I'm going to start making this uh this known there are so many billionaires on the planet who have tens of billions and hundreds of billions of dollars who are effectively sitting on it and not changing the world um not putting it in you know other than for increasing its return which is not a bad thing I think the more wealth and free energy there is out there to do things but um can you speak to that I don't know if you're willing to but uh there are a few people like Mark Benny off and uh and Eric Schmid and your yourself top of the list who invest on making the world a better place solving Global Grand challenges um thoughts on that sorry I just have some some

kids and stuff right problem um sort of family noises in the background um so uh let's see um yeah um well yeah I mean I do think that uh smart people with resources should care about the the good of civilization the future of civilization um even if there is not even if they're not particularly altruistic um because you can't really can you cannot exist um absent civilization um you you know if civilization collapses it's all over um you know there's like people who've got like these sort of um bunkers and you like other countries or Hawaii or whatever um I'm like listen do you really think that you're going to make it in in an apocalyptic situation um like they'll they'll they'll come and find you in that bunker and they pry they'll pry you out and

get your stuff um and and and and it's it's going to anyway so really uh smart people with resources any smart person with resources they just have some long-term perspective I mean listen it's it's you and it's you and and Jeff Bezos right now who've got the biggest long-term perspective and I see I uh you know uh I'm just curious about how do you incentivize other people to really um help the world accelerate uh you know and and make the world a more productive place right the best way to become a billionaire is help a billion people the world's biggest problems the world's biggest business opportunities uh do you believe that well I guess maybe we should just talk to people more um I guess just talking to them and you know I think it's perhaps just

raising conscious awareness the fact that um there is no living without civilization um when when you like one doesn't actually have to make an altruistic argument you can actually you know make a even it's a purely self-seeking argument um say like life would be miserable without civilization and if you want to know what life is like without civilization just go try living in the forest naked for a day and you will be naked and afraid and and quickly realize civilization is awesome have to eat bugs and get eaten by bugs and and and we're so interdependent upon each other to enable the state of technology and capability we have today um you know I'm curious is there anything that you think um that isn't becoming more abundant out there or anything we

have an abundance uh constraint on you know I'll just mention well answer that first then I want to come and talk about the carbon removal ex prise that you funded one second you know we're we're creating abundance of food energy water Health Care education um are we constrained in any way no not really no um I mean no I I think I I agree with you that the future most likely has abundance um we shouldn't be complacent about the future um you know complacency and entitlement are not a recipe for success but the most likely outcome is one of abundance of goods and services um that is certainly where we're headed uh uh yeah yeah when I when I saw you lasty likely where we're at very likely yeah when when I saw you last you said you know definitely a bunch

after AGI and I saw you know when you were talking about uh Optimus which is Awesome by the way let's just start with that congratulations um well thanks mean Optimus I need to make sure the Optimus is you know doesn't cause it doesn't add to civilizational risk um you know because you don't want like a billion of these things or with centralized control um unless unless what could go wrong has anyone made a movie about that unless they obey you well I don't think they should any any one personation yeah like I think you have to have Lo local control but um it has to be decentralized um because and any Central uh control is going to be problematic um CU you just can't be like it could be the a rogue AI takes I mean let's literally movie a rogue AI you

know Terminator uh takes over somehow gains control of um the mothership of that controls all the you know the Optimus robots or something like that um that is uh you basically it needs to be DEC it needs to be impossible for that to occur um let me ask you I always love combining your companies because it's like you know you know it's like uh uh a Reese's Peanut Butter Cup um you know sterlink and and and uh and and Starship together how about Optimus and neuralink when can I plug into an Optimus with my neuralink connection um well hopefully the first neural links will the First new link um in a human will hopefully be soon with from the next maybe this month or or next um now this is really just at first just trying to give um you know quadr quadriplegics

and tetraplegics um the ability to control their phone and computer it's it's basically like the first the first product is TE telepathy essentially um um or telekinesis um and uh and then the second product uh sort of tentatively called Blind sight where uh we can restore sight even if somebody is uh has uh lost both eyes and their optic nove amazing um go straight to the visual cortex yeah yeah exactly now these things all already work uh in monkeys um and uh i' just like to reemphasize no no monkey has ever died because of a neuralink um and we treat our monkeys extremely well last time last time I spoke to you about this you were playing uh you were playing pong against pager I think that's right um actually it turns out monkeys love playing video

games um they they're they're really just like us I mean they they they love uh eating eating snacks and playing video games I'll tell my 12-year-old boys about that yeah I mean you you see the video of Pedro playing you know um monkey mind you know telepathic playing pong telepathically he's not restrained in any way he's just sitting on on the the sort of tree branch drinking smoothies and drinking smoothies drinking a smoothie and playing pong yeah he's not held down you know um in fact he's he gets upset when we take his video game away just like like hum just like our kids that's that's awesome and and this I mean giving sight to the blind I mean it's biblical stuff and and this is again coming back to the original uh you know kicking off the new

year with a positive mindset with an abundance mindset with an exponential mindset with a moonshot mindset right which I and I think I hope you agree like I think for entrepreneurs and people listening like the single most important thing we have is our mindset how we see the world I mean would you agree with that yeah yeah I mean you can choose to be I mean happiness is I think is a decision I mean Lely I mean there's obviously people that have chemical imbalances but uh for most people the difference between being happy and unhappy is deciding to be happy over the years I've experimented with many intermittent fasting programs uh the truth is I've given up on intermittent fasting as I've seen no real benefit when it comes to longevity but this changed

when I discovered something called prolon 5day fasting nutrition program it harnesses the process of autophagy this is a cellular recycling process that revitalizes your body at a molecular level and just one cycle of the 5-day prolon fasting nutrition program can support healthy aging fat focused weight loss improved energy levels and more it's a painless process and I've been doing it twice a year for the last year you can get a 15% off on your order when you go to my special URL go to prolon life.

com p r o l n l.

com back slm moonshot get started on your longevity Journey with prolong today now back to the episode I want to take a second for everybody listening uh uh to point something out uh you know Elon it was uh 2021 uh I was texting with you and uh I said you should fund an another exerprise you funded an exerprise years AO go on teaching kids in the middle of Tanzania Reading Writing and arithmetic without any adults no schools around just on a tablet they were handed and the software had to teach them and it was an amazing success and then in 21 um I asked you if you'd do an exerprise on carbon removal and uh you said yes almost instantly um and we launched it three months later it was like the fastest yes to an xprize launch ever um so thank you for that

I want to give you a quick up on it if I could you're welcome um absolutely well um I hope the the education ex prise and the the Caron removal ex prise are result in you good out they I'm sure we had 6,000 teams enter the carbon removal prize um we have uh 1300 active teams in the competition right now as we down select uh uh about 36% 460 are focused on carbon air capture uh 4 30 are land related capture 240 are ocean related capture um and the we've given away 20 million of your money already five million to students and 15 million to the a million to the top 15 teams and the finals are coming up in two years in Earth Day of 2025 and uh interestingly enough you know the winning team needs to demonstrate uh uh Megaton level capture that can scale to

G level capture and so just the final competition is going to capture four megatons uh of carbon which is twice what's being done on an annual basis today so uh good progress so far great that's that's good to hear um well as we as we uh as we begin to wrap up what other thoughts for people on abundance what other mindset thoughts do you have for folks here is um H well I I I I do think that uh the birth rate is too low for humans as I I'm always going on about that um just a longevity baby I'm solving it with longevity I'm G to keep people alive longer okay well and robots and AI sure um but I mean it just uh the current situation is is grim Dr yeah yeah yeah yeah um I mean a lot of countries are um you know if you look at say say Korea Italy yeah they're

they're losing roughly half their population per generation yeah um that means three generations they're on10th of their current size and and and with the one1 that remains um being very old yeah the uh the numbers folks the replacement number is 2.

1 children per family on the average and um Europe is at 1. 5 um Asia uh dropped from 5. 7 in the 1950s to 1. 9 today which is crazy uh North America dropped from about 3 to 1.

6 were below the replacement level in the United States um and it's an it is an issue I mean we we need smart people on the planet yeah well I mean know if we don't make new humans we won't have Humanity um and and even with longevity uh we'll live longer but we're not live forever uh so I think we just need it's it's you know I'm concerned that like a lot of people think that the plan planet is overpopulated and that's one of the things contributing to a low birth rate um in fact some people I've encountered think they're basically um being Martyrs for not having kids and that's just it's just not true um I think we should uh take the position that we we we actually have a civic responsibility to have kids to at least keep uh the human population constant

um ideally we should grow it but we should at least not have population collapse which is what we currently have I I think people people fear the future and I mean the ations I've heard is I don't want to bring children into this world it's too dangerous AI is going to destroy Humanity uh the environment you know we're destroying the environment and so forth so I think part of it is getting people to be optimistic about the future uh versus pessimistic which is one of as you said in the beginning of this of this space is one of my one of my missions if people think the world is getting better and they have a hand in making it a better place uh you most definitely do um yeah I I think people should be optimistic about the future um they still Earth can

handle Far More Humans than currently exist um and uh the danger is not a population explosion but population collapse um so I would just encourage as many people as possible to uh have kids and ideally have a lot of kids because they they're going to make up for those who whatever reason don't buy an extra bottle of wine tonight folks yeah it's a big deal um so would you would you let's let's close out on the conversation of AI and AGI which I know a lot of people are always interested in and and and there's a real fear um about AI um what would you say to dissuade people I mean it's you you've you I've heard you say 80% probability we make it through and we need to protect it downside um can you speak to that what how do how can people walk away more

optimistic than pessimistic on on this front and how do you how do you think about you know is is it containment is it shaping how we train our AI systems how do you think we navigate uh super digital super intelligence well the the rate which AI is growing is it really boggles the mind yeah um so it currently seems as though the amount of compute dedicated to artificial intelligence is um increasing by a factor of 10 roughly every six months um it's it's faster than annual that's for sure so um I mean I've I recently heard today about a gigawatt class uh AI uh compute cluster wow um that's I think it's being being built in Kuwait or something to that effect um and it's a like 700,000 um v100s uh which is a couple Generations above two generations Beyond

that's Curr in production so this is staggering amount of compute um and and there are many such such things that's just the biggest one I've heard of so far but there are there's a 500 megawatt installation happening um there's and there's there's there's multiple 100 100 megawatt installations um in the works I I I don't even clear to me what what you do with that much um compute um because when you when you actually add up all human data ever created uh you really just run out of things to train on very quite quickly um like you you know if you've got maybe I don't know 20 or 30,000 h100s you can train on synthetic data almost yeah yeah you basically you have to have have synthetic data um because forly well under 100,000 h100s you can train on all

human data ever created including video uh um and it's not and it's not just the compute which is the major scarce resource but it's also the number of of uh entrepreneurs focusing this area the amount of capital that's going into this area uh the amount of data Avail I mean it's all increasing and it's all feeding on itself and so it's just you know hitting your point about the speed at which it's progressing is is I think the word awesome is is comes to mind or staggering yeah it's it's really staggering and and for sure um so I'm just trying to give a tense of scale it's I've never seen anything move this fast any of any technology this is the fastest moving thing so um in terms of aiming for AI safety my my best guess of my sort of primitive biological

NE man is is that we should uh aim for maximum truth seeking and and curiosity um that that's that's that's my gutfield for this for how to make AI as safe as possible if the the danger with programming morality and explicit with an explicit morality program is what is sometimes referred to as the Waluigi problem if you create Luigi you automatically create Waluigi by inverting Luigi sure um so um so I think we we have to be careful about programming and you know sort of an arbitrary morality um but but if if we focus on maximizing truth with acknowledged error that's that's probably I think that's the the way to maximize safety um and and also to have the AI be curious um because I think that you know Earth is much more interesting to an advanced AI

with humans on it than without humans I have a I agree with you now a interesting question of do you think vast intellig with vast intelligence comes uh significant empathy and respect for Life yeah I think so because that's the that's the hope at the end of the rainbow here that uh I don't want to use the word AGI I'll use a super digital super intelligence as a as a term uh with a dig super intelligence that is able to be more benevolent and support us because sometimes I'm not sure us squishy meat sacks can make it through our own our own uh horseshit problems that we put together um so maybe there's a value there um my you know I think on the whole AI is the single most important technology we ever invented and it is going to uplift all of human I

think it's what you said you know post AGI comes abundance uh I think it's the interim issues in the next one to four years right it's it's not artificial intelligence it's human stupidity yeah um well I mean one way that AI could go wrong is if the extinctionist philosophy is programmed into the AI whe whether implicitly or explicitly I mean probably not explicitly but there's a strong danger of of an implicit extinctionist philosophy being programmed into AI um you know and and what would that look like what would that look like well like there's this guy on the front page of New York Times um think about a year ago um he's head of the extinctionist society and he was literally quoted as there are 8 billion people on on Earth it would be better if there

were none oh my God and yeah um so uh and if you if you take the extreme environmentalist argument especially like the implicit extreme environmentalist argument um they they there's an imp implicit conclusion that humans are a plague on the surface of the Earth um so we I think we have to be quite careful about um an an implicit like like if the extinctionist movement was somehow programmed into AI as as the optimization that would be extremely dangerous yeah to say say the least um yeah and but you know there there there are people quite a few people actually who who view Humanity um as as a blight on the surface of the oan yeah and there we're we are coming down to there is the you know accelerationist movement the deceleration movement the Boomers

and the doomers um but I think people forget to realize or don't realize forget the fact that you know uh we romanticize the past and the past life was short brutish and you were dead by 40 um you know the life that we enjoy today is a result of the extraordinary technology that we brought to bear um yeah the like you know Hobs life is nasty brsh and um I I actually I I had a little Yorkshire terer once um who was uh nasty brutish and short and kept kept biting people so I called him hob perfect I would tell friends that that that came over watch out for the dog and and they'd look at this miniature York ter and laugh and then then bite them on the ankle and I said watch I said watch out for the uh you know that extinctionist Meme is the same sort of

you know you discount it uh until it starts um uh being a mind virus uh in part as you've called it and it starts disrupting us yeah um if you convince people that you know we're running out of resources on Earth that there are too many people in the world and the only way to survive is to have fewer people which a lot of people are believe to be the case and like I said if that if that somehow gets programmed into Ai and that AI becomes the most powerful AI then we're in deep trouble uh yeah we need to counterforce the population bomb I mean what an extraordinary disservice to humanity um yeah er's book was terrible nightmare maybe the most Anti anti-human book ever written yeah for sure for sure um the but get people Hope on the flip side here uh those

who are saying again going back to I don't want to bring up my children because I hear this all the time and I'm sure you do too in an age where AI is going to destroy us so um short-term problems long-term problems short-term Solutions long-term Solutions you said make it curious make it uh maximum truth seeking 100% um um is it okay to say that we're going to have issues in the short term and we're going to have to deal with them or do you there won't be there will be there will be some issues um I mean essentially at this point no way to stop AI it it's it is accelerating whether people like it or not um I mean that's that's uh that's why together with a number of really smart people we created uh xai um and um you know hopefully you know some really

small humans will continue to join xai and and build uh what is intended to be a maximally truth seeking and maximally curious um AI um anyway I think that's that's really important um so listen on behalf of of those of us and I think everybody here listening who are pro- humanity and pro uplifting Humanity um and making us a multiplanetary species and uh living a longer healthier life and I the one place I disagreed with you on on uh on X is on uh you know having people live longer you don't people don't need to die for there to be new ideas you know that the CEO of Ford and GM didn't have to die for Tesla to come into existence so we're uh yeah uh you know I'm I want to just say thank you for all that you're doing and and setting a model for other other

in industrialists and entrepreneurs out there uh to take on uh and solve the big huge problems well uh thank you um I would encourage people to be optimistic about the future um like or on the side of optimism um you will be happier for it um and and as you pointed out probably live longer so and I'm not I'm not totally against life extension I I think we did we you know um we want to be I'm I don't think we want to necessar have people live forever that's or live for a very long like thousands of years that I think that would potentially lead to OIC of society it it it would I think lead to oif of society um but but I mean solving de dementia and um you know curing cancer I think are good things obviously um so so I'm not sure we're actually that far

apart on the life extension thing um I think we're prob probably mostly in agreement um I yeah we just don't want to have like you know can you live for like do you want Kim Jong Un living for a thousand years no but I I'd like I'd like Elon Musk and Peter D mandis living for 150 years and a few other thousand amazing entrepreneurs out there sure um so it's it's a you know there there is a a challenge that like a lot of people they really never change their mind they just die and this this is actually I'm not sure who originally said this but even in physics where which is extremely rigorous um that you know that that you know physics in a lot of cases has advanced one Death at a time yeah my my friend Brian keading who's a a astrophysicist reminded me

of that and and maybe it was true but in this world of Entrepreneurship I think we do live with meritocracy to a large degree and the best ideas can bubble up to the top um faster than ever before especially with with AI now where you can build companies you know extraordinary companies with a couple of people and a lot of tech so yeah um I have one last question and then uh uh it's I know it's dinner time there uh uh the future of X xai um what's your vision there pal well as I was saying I think the the path to AI safety is to BU an AI that is maximally truth seeking with acknowledged error that is maximally curious and I think um that I think that that is most likely to lead to a good outcome for Humanity um because we are we are much more interesting

than than than not Humanity like like obviously you know I'm a big fan of Ms but m is much less interesting because there is no human civilization there um and um you take humans for example we we we could hunt down all of the chimpanzees and kill them but we don't and in fact we make efforts to preserve their habitats um we so anyway I think that that's that is a path to a great future and and a a maximally positive AI to be rigorously truth seeking always acknowledging some amount of error and and maximally curious um that's and that's that's the the goal of XI is uh and you know the company MTO is understand the universe uh and that's a it's a it's a good Mission and and one that's going to take a bit of time I can't wait till the first uh AI is able

to come up with new theories of physics um and new Innovations that's going to be I mean I don't think that's far away and I think that's gonna be one of the most awesome times ever to be alive true like we we definitely live in the most interesting times and actually for a while I was kind of depressed about AI but then I I kind of got fatalistic about it and said like well even if even if AI was going to you know end all all Humanity would I prefer to be around to see it or not I I guess I would prefer to be around to see it um just out of curiosity but I obviously hopefully AI is extremely beneficial to humanity but but the thing that sort of reconciled me to be less anxious about it was to say well I guess even if it was apocalyptic I'd still be curious

to see the it's like you know I be curious to see it I remember I was at your birthday party at one of your homes here in La before you sold them uh and Larry Page was there and Sergey was there and we were having a conversation about living in a simulation and the notion was this is we're in the 99th level of the game play and this has got to be a simulation because you couldn't why would be why would be alive right now in this single most interesting time and then uh the only comment was don't poke the simulation or will end yeah yeah well if we are in a simulation the the the way to keep the simulation going is to keep being interesting so like humans run lots of computer simulations because we we we don't know what the outcome's going to be and we're

curious to see we'll run lots of simulations like in like will run crash simulations and SpaceX will run you know rocket flight simulations and um we only stop doing the simulations when the when the outcome is extremely predictable and boring yes so if we're in some alien Compu that's a great argument that is perfect right when it's absolutely known if we're if we're not if we're not entertaining enough to the uh the digital gods or the universe Gods they'll Land The Sim yeah we just need to make sure we keep the ratings [Laughter] up but but this why also why I think like one of the um ways to predict the future is that the most entertaining outcome is the most likely as seen by a third party as seen by as though we were an alien soap opera I love that

yeah like so it's not necessarily good for those in the soap opera like you could be watching a World War I movie and seeing you know people get blown up um and and you're just eating popcorn and drinking of soda um but we're we're we're in the movie um yeah well let's not get let's not get dystopian here because I think we can have a we can have a we can have a really positive outcome of a lot of other cool stuff um yeah for sure I think the most likely outcome is positive and and I think if you you know and I think that's partly a self-fulfilling prophecy if you don't believe so if you believe it's going to be a distopian outcome then you're going to be back on your heels protecting yourself not investing in the future and it unravels and this yeah

and and so you know I think the the message of this entire space is is this is the most extraordinary time to be alive the most exciting time to be alive a time where you know a lot a lot of individuals listening on the spaces has more power than Kings or queens or heads of Nations had just a few decades ago and it doesn't take a government or a large corporation to solve a problem anymore you know an entrepreneur with you some a few h100s can do a good job yeah I I think we should ear on the side of optimism um we should we should ear on the side of optimism and we should have kids like uh you know to to to air is human and h e i r and to reproduce is human all right buddy listen thank you so much for your time thanks for sharing you're welcome all right

thanks Peter take care buddy [Music] bye n