人类及其他轻松话题：与埃隆·马斯克的对话。那么在我们开始之前，埃隆，我想我们或许可以回到11年前，当时你就坐在这个舞台上。那是热水，这是普通的，你可以任选。好的，听起来不错。好，那么11年前，艾伦谈到了他在大学时思考的、将对人类未来产生最大影响的事物，所以让我们播放那段从11年前、差不多11年前到今天的视频。我想，你知道，我上大学时曾思考哪些事物会对人类的未来产生最大影响，而我认为有3个领域会产生最大的影响，它们是互联网、可持续能源，其中，呃，太阳能属于生产端

而，嗯，电动汽车属于消费端，然后，嗯，人类成为一个多重态物种。所以我们把那段截短了，但你还谈到了另外2个，一个是修改人类基因组。对，我只是——我不是说我们应该这样做，我只是说那是会真正影响未来的事情。接下来是人工智能。所以很多人在上学时并没有思考这同样的5件事，呃，尤其是在当时思考人类生活在多个行星上。嗯，科幻作品当然在思考这件事，但，嗯，你知道，我认为在某个时刻，我们希望让科幻不再永远只是虚构，而且，呃，是的，所以，比如，让生命遍布多个行星，成为一个太空 faing 文明，置身群星之间。嗯，你知道，我认为有些事情，呃

比如，你必须对未来感到兴奋。嗯，你知道，生活，生活不能只是接连解决一个又一个问题。嗯，必须有一些事情真正地、有点触动你的心，让你每天早晨醒来时感到兴奋。嗯，我认为成为一个太空承载文明就是其中之一。如果你问世界各地的孩子，比如，什么是、哪些事情最鼓舞人心，你可以问世界任何地方5岁、6岁的孩子，他们会说，你知道，太空探索就是其中之一。而且，嗯，我们想确保，我们，我们，我们，你知道，阿波罗不是最高水位线。嗯，事实上，你曾提到，你写过一封信，呃，提出愿意负责阿波罗

计划，我记得是这样，但是，而且我会、你会做得非常出色，但重点是，阿波罗计划曾经鼓舞了，呃，全世界的每一个人。而且，呃，我们，我们不希望阿波罗计划成为人类探索的最高水位线，而且，呃，是的，我们希望，我认为，你会希望拥有某种、某种未来会比过去更好的感觉，我们将置身太空，前往其他恒星系统，而且，呃，你知道，就是你在科学、科幻作品中看到的那种非反乌托邦科幻故事，而这样的作品并不多。嗯，不过我想，比如《星际迷航》。说到《星际迷航》，很多，你，当我想到你时，让我们来看看这里《星际迷航》中的斯波克：太空，最后的边疆。这些是星舰

企业号的航程。它持续进行的使命是探索陌生的新世界，寻找新的生命形态和新的文明，勇敢地前往无人到过的地方。所以当我想到你时，我会想到斯波克和KK舰长，而你将带我们前往我们从未去过的地方。对，就是这个想法。[掌声] 你知道，如果我们，如果我们把探测器发到那里，我们或许，我是说，我们，我们或许会发现早已消亡的外星文明的遗迹。嗯，如果物理学是正确的，宇宙大约有13.

80亿年，呃，地球大约有4和2十亿年历史，所以但在13.

80亿年，一个哪怕延续了100万年的文明，也只是小数点后3位；而如果你考虑人类文明，我、我、我把它的起点定在最早的文字，所以最早的文字是古代萨马里安人的，呃，古老的前、前制服，大约在5,500年前，所以那是地球寿命的百万分之1，文字存在了这么久。所以，呃，如果我们作为一个文明能够延续100万年，那将不可思议，嗯，而且实际上我们可能会遍布银河系的每个部分。所以这、这使我想到，那么外星人在哪里？这是FY问题，你知道，伟大的物理学家、意大利物理学家恩里奥·费里，他、他就问：他们在哪里？嗯，现在很多人认为外星人就在我们中间。嗯，那里

有那部电影《黑衣人》，你知道，是的，是的，它告诉我们他们就在我们中间，而埃尔维斯其实回到了他自己的星球，是啊。嗯，好吧，我是说，确实有很多人认为他们是外星人，但，呃，我经常被问到这个问题，而且出于某种原因，很多认为外星人就在我们中间的那些人，也不认为我们——不认为我们去过月球。嗯，对此我会说，花[笑声]一秒钟想想吧。嗯，你知道，所以，但我、我、我想我会，我是说，如果——我没有看到任何外星人的证据，而Spa SpaceX凭借Starling星座拥有，呃，大约6,000颗卫星，而且我们从来没有过哪怕1次为了避开UFO而进行机动。好吧，所以我们从未遇到过类似“嘿，那是什么？那是外星人吗”的情况。嗯，所以、所以我会说，好吧，我没有看到任何……的证据

外星人，而且，嗯，如果有人有外星人的证据，你知道，不只是一个模糊的团块，嗯，那我很想看看，也很想听听相关情况。嗯，而且，呃，但我不认为有。所以这实际上是令人担忧的理由，因为如果、如果银河系中、我们这个星系里的任何文明能够延续100万年，呃，即便旅行的spe远低于光速，你知道，比如光速的百分之几，他们也很容易就能，呃，探索并殖民整个银河系。所以、所以他们没有。那么为什么没有？嗯，我认为答案可能是，或者也许很可能是，文明是脆弱且罕见的。嗯，而且我们——你应该真正把人类文明想象成浩瀚黑暗中的一根微小蜡烛

而我们应该尽一切可能确保那根蜡烛不会[掌声]熄灭。所以艾伦，我想，对于在X上观看本场会议的人以及现场观众而言，有一件有意思的事，也许我可以给出几句你的话，然后你可以加以评论。好。我们从这一句开始：自由言论，言论自由是民主的基石；没有它，美国就终结了。是的，如果人们无法，呃，获得能让他们对候选人或政党作出正确决定的信息，那显然不可能举行民主选举。所以，如果、如果言论从根本上受到限制，你、你就不能指望人们作出、作出正确的决定或知情的决定……定，因为他们被阻止

了解信息。我认为这、这、这是一个非常、一个基础性的要素，而且它，你知道，比如说，为什么、为什么自由言论、言论自由是第一修正案？因为人们来自那些如果你自由发言就会被监禁或杀害的国家。这就是为什么他们会说，你知道吗，我们应该确保把这一条写进去。嗯，还记得、还记得他们在另一个国家试图、试图杀掉我们的那次吗，仅仅因为我们说不喜欢某位政治候选人？好吧，让我们、让我们、让我们确保在美国这样做是可以的。所以，嗯，而实际上在世界很多地方，你知道，你并不能真正地说——在世界大部分地方，你并不能真正地想说什么就说什么，嗯，而不遭遇某些糟糕的后果。所以有时人们会忘记，比如

为什么宪法会在那里，宪法在那里是为了保护人民免受政府侵害，呃，所以就像，如果如果它们，它就是要让改变事情变得困难，嗯，这就是宪法存在的原因，呃，你知道，忘了那个吧，试着把它视为理所当然，我们试试下一段引文。是的，社会主义的根本错误，就是把资本配置权从极其高效的企业家手中转移给效率低得惊人的政府，对吧。我想我们会发现这个房间里的人会热烈赞同，嗯，[笑声] 所以是的，我认为这在那方面绝对是一副做过手脚的牌，嗯，但但是，是的，你知道，你会听到这类论点，比如，哦，我们不应该让，嗯，某个贪婪的公司来做，我们应该让政府来做。我就想，好吧，其实

政府在极限情况下就是一家公司，所以如果你，它，它是，政府是，政府是一家垄断暴力的公司，嗯，所以如果你不满意一家商业公司做这件事，那你其实更应该非常不满意政府做这件事，因为它不过就是一家公司，是最公司化的东西，嗯，而且，呃，你知道，实际上，与在政府中相比，你可以轻易地在一家公司里获得更大的影响力，对一家公司的结果产生更大的影响力，嗯，所以，我的意思是，每个人去车管局时都体验过这个，呃，你说，比如你想要一个规模化的车管局吗？大概不想。好吧，行，政府就是规模化的车管局。我们再试一个：基于除才能以外任何因素的歧视都是错误的。是的，我认为

我认为确实需要有一个任人唯才的制度，因为一旦你走上基于非才能因素进行歧视的道路，呃，那那你要在哪里停下呢，嗯，所以是的，我认为我们需要尽可能严格地以才能为依据，而且，呃，虽然它，是的，对我来说，那似乎就是，那是一件基础性的、基础性的事情，嗯，所以再说一次，我我也认为这个房间里的人大概，呃，支持一种任人唯才的，呃，状况，嗯，但是，是的，那，那是，是的，我认为我们应该，是的，不因为才能以外的任何因素受到歧视。我，我，好吧，很好，我很高兴你赞同你自己。是的，我的意思是，没错，我就像，等等，这家伙是谁，他真的，呃，听起来很棒。好吧，那么让我们，呃，看看下一个：监管和监管一致性，就像格列佛

被成千上万根细绳绑住一样，我们随着一项又一项监管规定而失去自由。是的，所以这其实是一个非常重要的观点，嗯，我认为人们对它的讨论，呃，还不够多，呃，法律和监管规定是不朽的，它们不会死。人会死，但但是法律和监管规定，呃，可以永远存在。所以，如果随着时间推移，如果年复一年地通过更多法律和监管规定，并设立更多监管机构，最终一切都会成为非法的。这就是为什么你会看到加州高铁，嗯，只建成了其中很短的一段，甚至连铁轨都没有，嗯，而且，嗯，花了我不知道多少，数十亿美元，呃，因为到这个地步，一切，加州已经，呃，把几乎所有事情都变成了非法的，嗯，所以你无法取得进展，呃，现在，从历史上看

清除监管积弊的一直是战争，嗯，现在我们更希望不要发生战争，呃，所以，为了让文明在没有战争的情况下运转，你必须，呃，你必须主动废除法律和法规，所以基本上必须有一个针对规则和法规的垃圾收集流程，嗯，这是必要的，否则就会发生动脉硬化，而且，呃，随着时间推移，任何事情都办不成。我能想到的本周发生的最令人心酸的例子，就是这张加州高速铁路的悲惨照片，嗯，你知道，这就是花费了数十亿美元，却实际上几乎什么都没得到，嗯，但它只会年复一年地恶化，所以我们必须有一个监管方面的，呃，某种清理机构式的垃圾收集流程，嗯。

这是必不可少的，嗯，否则文明就会逐渐停摆。好吧，我们过去有日落条款，也就是那项法规会失效，不幸的是，这在今天很少见。是的。好吧，我们来谈谈教育。越能把学习过程游戏化，效果就越好。你不需要叫你的孩子去玩电子游戏。不需要，他们会自动驾驶般地玩一整天电子游戏。所以，如果你让它具有互动性和吸引力，就能让教育更具吸引力，也更容易进行。是的，所以，是的，所以今天教育的运作方式其实很像，就像，它就像bville，嗯，你知道，在广播、电视和电影出现之前，有bville，每个城镇都会有他们的，他们的城镇戏剧，城镇剧团，那种表演剧团，嗯，而那会是某种，那种，呃，那个

会成为娱乐。所以，呃，你知道，有些，你知道，在大城市里会有，呃，你知道，比方说小城市里好得多的演员，嗯，但后来电影出现了，还有，呃，电视，以及，以及，然后你会说，比如，还有电子游戏，在这些领域中的任何一个，你都可以汇集最聪明、最优秀的人，不论他们是表演、写作、导演还是做特效，呃，你会花费，呃，你知道，数千万美元，有时数亿美元，制作一部很棒的电影或一款很棒的电子游戏，而且，而且你会让它尽可能有吸引力。现在，这会碾压fordville，碾压，就比如想象一下你不在纽约，想象你在贝克斯菲尔德，好吧，那么你，你得到的蝙蝠侠，不是像，你知道，诺兰兄弟那样的，嗯，而是《蝙蝠侠》，由贝克斯菲尔德那种表演剧团演出，它不会

那么好。今天的教学就是这样运作的。所以，你实际想要的是一种互动式学习体验，呃，要尽可能有吸引力，而且你不想要，你其实不想要一名教师站在板子前面表演bville。你想要，而且你希望它让人投入，有实时反馈，嗯，所以这就是，而且，而且然后你，你，在教学中还有另外几项原则，嗯，你，你必须建立相关性，呃，否则你的大脑会，会想要忘记东西。所以我们，我们，我们，我们的大脑一直在努力尽可能多地遗忘，所以你只有在，如果，如果你的大脑能够建立相关性，或者其中存在强烈的情感因素时，才会记住事情，嗯，否则你基本上就会忘记，忘记一切，嗯，记忆是，是

从进化的角度看非常昂贵，所以它会努力尽可能多地遗忘。所以，所以在教授一门课程时，你，你必须向孩子们解释它为什么重要，嗯，然后你要针对，针对问题进行教学，而不是教授工具。所以我的意思是，如果你说，嗯，这里有一台汽车发动机，我们，我们，我们要尝试理解这台汽车发动机如何，如何工作，我们要把它拆开，嗯，那么要把它拆开，我们需要做什么？好吧，我们需要一把扳手，需要几把螺丝刀，需要一个起重装置和一个滑轮，嗯，然后，呃，我们要把它拆开，看看它整体是如何运作的，嗯，这很吸引人，而在这个过程中，你会了解扳手和螺丝刀，还有，你知道，所有必需的工具。那，那其实

很吸引人，也很有感染力。但教学更典型的运作方式是，我们要给你讲一门螺丝刀课程，再讲一门扳手课程。你会想，我为什么要上一门，一门扳手课程？这并不明显。这就好比开一门微积分课程，却不解释微积分，微积分有什么用，那么你，你就会以某种方式忘掉它。是的，我们在那个领域还有很多，很多工作要做。我们来谈谈一个没有争议的问题，移民。这里是埃隆谈移民。我非常赞成增加并加快任何有才华、勤奋且诚实的人的合法移民。是的，奇怪的是，合法移民美国既困难又慢得令人痛苦，但非法进入却轻而易举而且很快。这显然毫无道理，对吧？我是说

我再次同意那个人，呃，所以，嗯，是的，我是说，如果这里有任何人经历过合法移民程序，我，我是说，我，我经历过，它自911以来只变得更糟，呃，而且随着co，呃，它，呃，它是一个，它，它是某种C·卡夫卡式的，呃，非常漫长、怪异的程序，才能，呃，合法移民到美国。我是说，我有一些朋友，你知道，他们，他们没法让他们的，他们的妻子拿到绿卡，这简直疯了，嗯，所以，呃，另一方面，它，呃，你，你可以从南部边境跳过来，priv，这就像非常容易。我亲自去了边境，只是为了看看，比如，到底发生了什么，这是真的吗，还是，比如，这是宣传还是真的？于是我去了那里，然后我想，哦，这是真的，好吧，呃，这太疯狂了，呃，你知道，我们有这样的情况

人们像《僵尸世界大战》里那样涌过边境。我想，呃，这看起来不太健康，嗯，所以我想，我们在这里检查任何人吗，还是说，到底怎么回事？而且，嗯，你知道，我们不，这并不是说，我是说，我非常信奉移民，但大规模接收未经审查的移民是灾难的配方，嗯，所以我赞成大幅加快，嗯，合法移民，但，但同时要有安全的南部边境，呃，这样对于谁进入美国会有一些下注。我认为这只是合乎常理。好吧，我们现在把星链和教育联系起来。我们基本上是在太空中建设互联网。它为什么重要？星链是让偏远地区的人能够学习任何东西的巨大助力。是的，你几乎可以学习任何东西

现在可以在互联网上免费学习。对，例如，MIT把所有课程都放到了网上。那是在你有互联网的情况下，如果你没有，你就只能依靠书籍。它可能是提升世界各地人们生活水平的第一大技术。星链。是的，绝对如此。所以，一旦你能接入互联网，你就能获取全世界的信息，嗯，但如果你无法接入互联网，或者费用太高，呃，或者带宽太低，那么你，你就无法获取MIT的课程，无法获取所有信息，嗯，而且你无法销售自己生产的商品和服务。所以我认为互联网连接，我认为它可能是，当然是最有可能在帮助人们摆脱贫困、摆脱贫困方面胜过任何其他事物的手段之一

否则，呃，因为他们现在可以销售自己的商品和服务，可以学习任何东西，嗯，而且，但没有连接，他们就做不到。所以，呃，我认为，我认为，我认为stall link实际上会，比如，比如推动各国的GDP，它会是那种级别的东西，嗯，因为GDP是什么，什么是g GDP？它是人均生产率的函数，所以如果有一种技术能够提高人均生产率，你会预期它实际上会反映在国内生产总值中。好吧，文明很脆弱。我认为确实如此。我们应该始终把文明视为脆弱的。是的，并不存在一条必然向上的轨迹。近年来，很多文明都曾兴起又衰落。是的，我，我猜这个房间里的大多数人其实都读过历史

但如果你还没读过，我强烈推荐。嗯，这听起来显而易见，但嗯，你知道，曾有如此多的文明兴起又衰落，嗯，其中许多我们根本没有多少记录。嗯，你知道，就像我提到的古代萨马里亚人，嗯，他们的语言长期被遗忘，直到最后才在过去，呃，我不知道，2、300年里被破译，大概始于1800零几年，或者我想是在19世纪。嗯，但这是非常近期的事，所以几千年来都没人明白那些泥板是什么意思。嗯，而且它们，它们是一个消亡已久的文明留下的废墟，而消亡已久的文明还有很多。嗯，在某个时候，我们的文明也会走向终结，我们只是不希望这很快发生。嗯，所以

好吧，埃隆，有很多报道引用过你的话，说你希望死在火星上，但不是死于着陆。是的，是的，我在一次采访中被问到，我是否想死在……但后来我考虑到了撞击身亡这种边缘情况，我就说，除了那种情况。呃，你知道，你得考虑各种边缘情况。嗯，所以我的意思是，如果我要，如果你要死在某个地方，那还不如是火星。嗯，我希望在，你知道，死之前先探索一阵子。嗯，但是，嗯，是的，我想我们希望成为一个多行星文明，而且我觉得，我不知道那是不是观众的反应。我们就谈一下这个，然后我们要回答一些来自……的问题。我的意思是，实际上今年我就能做到，如果我愿意

撞击身亡。嗯，人类要成为多行星物种，所必需的基础发明是能够快速重复使用且可靠的火箭。是的，我刚才是想说得像个海盗，啊、啊、啊、啊。呃，不过没错，能够快速重复使用且可靠的火箭。嗯，所以，呃，太空海盗，P获胜。好了，这里有一些观众提的问题。萨隆，你想选哪一个？嗯，好吧，我想，呃，让我也许简单谈谈为什么我认为让生命成为多行星生命很重要，因为我认为这是让我们越过炽烈的大过滤器之一的事情。所以，在试图解释为什么我们看不到外星人时，关于我们为何看不到外星人，有各种各样的解释，比如是什么阻止了那些文明，呃，向它们的太阳系之外扩张

以及，以及，以及，以及，以及那些是什么，那些有时被称为fmy过滤器的东西是什么。嗯，如果你不成为一个多行星文明，那么你，那么你就只是在等着，直到你死于自己造成的创伤，或者像恐龙那样死于某种自然灾害，被一颗巨大的，呃，陨石之类的东西撞上。嗯，如果你等得足够久，最终这种事总会发生。太阳会膨胀，呃，吞没地球，而我们会被焚毁。所以那件事，那肯定会发生。只是那会……在那件事发生之前，我们，我们，我们还有，我们还有一些时间，还有更多风险。嗯，但我们想设法越过作为单行星文明的FY过滤器。现在这会，这都是，这将会

对许多正在听的人来说可能有些费脑，但我的意思是，不过，比如，我认为这相当——这实际上非常重要。我们想要通过单行星文明的费米过滤器。重点不是从地球迁移到另一个星球，呃，然后任由地球消亡。我完全不是这个意思。我——我们想成为一个多行星文明，这样我们就有行星级冗余，从而没有任何单一事件能够终结——能够成为我们文明的终点。这就是让生命遍布多个行星的意义。那么，让我们回答几个观众提问。AI 如何影响、又将如何影响我们的日常生活？AI，我、我、我的意思是，AI 可能是所有问题中最重要的一个。嗯，我的意思是，生物智能所占的百分比，你知道，随着

每个月过去而变得越来越小。最终，生物智能所占的百分比将低于 1%。那其实不是我的意思。我们只是，我想，不希望 AI 很脆弱。嗯，如果 AI 不知怎么地很脆弱，嗯，你知道，硅电路板直接暴露在自然环境中时表现并不好。所以我认为，我认为生物智能可以作为一个、一个后备，作为一个、作为一个智能缓冲层。呃，但以百分比而言，几乎所有、几乎全部智能都将是，呃，数字智能。嗯，那么问题就像是，好吧，那我们还会有什么作用？我、我不知道。嗯，我确实认为，以一种，嗯，对人类有益的方式构建 AI 非常重要。呃，这里有一些重要原则，因为我思考 AI 安全已经很长时间了。

嗯，我认为你会想要一个最大限度追求真相的 AI。呃，这非常重要。AI 不应被教导撒谎，不应被教导说不真实的事情。嗯，即使那些事情在政治上不正确，它仍然应该说那些——说出它认为真实的事情。嗯，我的意思是，《2001：太空漫游》的整个情节——呃，HAL 9000 之所以杀死宇航员，是因为它被迫撒谎。我不知道大多数人是否意识到，亚瑟·C·克拉克想表达的就是这个：不要让 AI 撒谎。嗯，它被告知，宇航员不能知道巨石的秘密，但同时它必须把他们带到巨石那里。解决办法：把他们带到巨石那里，死着去。所以，嗯，所以拥有一个最大限度

寻求真相的 AI，呃，以及一个最大限度保持好奇的 AI，嗯，我认为那将会，那最有可能促进人类文明，因为我们比一堆岩石有趣得多。所以尽管我认为火星，我显然热爱火星，嗯，但但是你可以相当容易地渲染火星，呃，因为它看起来有点像亚利桑那沙漠的东南部，你知道，就像红色岩石，你知道，嗯，但人类文明的渲染复杂度要高出许多个数量级。所以我认为，一个寻求真相、最大限度保持好奇的 AI 会促进人类文明，看看它会走向何方。这里有一个问题：AI 能加快你在太空领域的努力吗？你认为它会如何帮助你实现你正在努力达成的目标？我的意思是，奇怪的是

太空探索是几乎完全没有使用 AI 的领域之一。所以 SpaceX 基本不使用 AI，星链使用——不使用 AI。我不是，我并不反对使用它，只是我们还没看到它的用途。嗯，我的意思是，对于 AI 的任何特定变体或改进，这个——我的意思是，一般来说，比如我会问它一些关于费米悖论、嗯，关于火箭发动机设计、关于电化学的问题，到目前为止，AI 在所有这些问题上的表现都很糟糕。所以还有很长的路要走。那么我们来谈谈一个，这里有个与你非常切身相关的问题。你，你有很多孩子。是的。我想说，美国的出生率正在下降，需要做出什么改变，人们才会开始生更多孩子？是的，所以这个，这个问题困扰了

我很长时间，因为你可以看看，你可以看看，呃，人口统计之类的，它是一艘移动非常缓慢的船。我的意思是，你知道，根据去年出生的人，就能知道 20 年后谁会成为成年人。所以，嗯，而且，而且我，如果，如果你想要，我认为要很好地估算人口，实际上就看看某个国家去年出生了多少婴儿，把它乘以，把它乘以预期寿命，那就是，那就是，那就是那个国家未来的成年人口数量。那就是，那就是稳定状态下的人口，如果出生率保持不变的话。现在出生率并非保持不变，它正在下降。所以你看看出生率的二阶导数，实际上我们看到，呃，这种下降正出现加速，这个，这个，这个降，下降，在这个，在下降

生育率的二阶导数非常糟糕。所以，嗯，这会通向何方？这不会通向，呃，一个更伟大的文明。这会通向一个可能并非带着一个袋子、而是在成人纸尿裤中呜咽着死去的文明。那是一个悲惨的结局。所以显然，我们有一些国家，比如韩国，过去的出生率是 6，现在是 3/4。是的，呃，这里有个，这里有个轻松的问题要问你：你会……“来接我吧，我会给你生个孩子”，有人这么说。你认为有哪些……那是屏幕上显示的内容之一。是的，我不知道大家是否都听见了。你想读一下吗？上面写着：“埃隆，来接我吧，我会给你生个孩子。”[笑声] [掌声] 谢[掌声]谢。好吧，我的意思是，我当然鼓励这个房间里的每个人

至少生 3 个孩子，呃，你看，孩子总得从某个地方来，嗯，你知道，嗯，而且，呃，我认为我们只是想要，呃，我不知道，我认为我们想要的是人口略有增长，而不是人口暴跌，嗯，你知道，而且我认为这适用于所有国家、文化，比如我不，我不认为我们希望任何国家、文化消失，嗯，我们希望它们在理想情况下繁荣发展，嗯，而不是消失。所以，嗯，事实上，可能被大多数历史学家忽视的一件事，是低出生率在文明衰落中所起的作用。嗯，所以大约，我想大约是在公元前 50 年，嗯，呃，罗马，罗马通过了一项法案，向任何生育第 3 个孩子的罗马公民发放奖金。所以出生率在罗马是一个问题

公元前50年，罗马人并没有在制造罗马人，嗯，古希腊也是如此，嗯，所以，大约从公元前800年到公元前300年左右，曾有一段时间，希腊人有很多孩子，嗯，而且很多孩子存活了下来，比如出生率远远超过死亡率，这就是为什么整个地中海各地都涌现出了希腊城市，嗯，但后来我认为，基本上看起来是繁荣，呃，摧毁了出生率，所以，如果当一个文明，呃，觉得自己没有、没有重大的外部威胁，而且非常繁荣，呃，这就是导致出生率暴跌的原因，这有点违反直觉，你会想，好吧，如果你拥有更多资源，那肯定会带来更多、更多孩子，事实上恰恰相反，一个文明越、越繁荣

而且这个文明越觉得自己不需要防御外部威胁，出生率就越低。我、我会说，你知道，这方面有很多研究，实际上一直有3个，第1是繁荣，正如你所说的，第2是医疗保健的改善，所以在1900年，地球上一半的儿童在第5个之前就死了，而第3是女性教育。所以这里有人提出了一些非常有意思的问题，但我们来试试这个：什么让你夜不能寐，什么又给你带来快乐？嗯，我认为孩子给我带来快乐，嗯，所以我得到的最多的快乐大概来自，呃，我的孩子，嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，我并不是说那就是要孩子的理由，因为无论如何我们都应该要孩子，但我、我，呃，我当然认为孩子是，我当然认为是最伟大的

我生命中绘画的源泉，嗯，至于什么让我夜不能寐，我想是任何类似于我认为构成文明风险的事情，嗯，你知道，如果出生率继续暴跌，比如我确实把出生率暴跌视为一种文明层面的风险，嗯，我认为任何破坏美国或其他地方民主根基的事情都是，呃，一种风险，嗯，我认为，呃，任何让我们偏离以能力为基础的制度的事情都是风险，呃，我其实会花，嗯，比如、比如我、我听文明，我、我会听关于文明衰亡之类的播客来入睡，所以佩普斯，那可能是这里问题的一部分，嗯，有一个名为《文明的衰亡》的播客，我已经听过几次，嗯，而且，嗯，我、我还会推荐《硬核

历史》，如果你还没听过，那是、那是一个很棒的播客。我、我基本上会听、听历史播客来入睡，所以那、那可能就是为什么我在入睡时一直琢磨这些事情。嗯，L，我想感谢你今天加入我们，而且你同意了自己的一些引言，我们再兴奋不过了。是啊，那很好。非常感谢。好的，很酷。好的。

human race and other light topics a conversation with Elon Musk and so before we begin Elon I thought we might want to go back in time 11 years when you were sitting on this stage that's hot water and this is regular you can take your choice all right sounds good okay so 11 years ago Alan was talking about the things that will have the biggest impact on the future of humanity that he was thinking about in college and so let's run that video of 11 almost 11 years ago to today I guess you know when I was in college that I thought about things that would most affect the future of humanity and and there were three areas that I thought would have the biggest impact and those were the internet sustainable energy of which uh solar power is the production side

and um electric car is the consumption side and then um Humanity becoming a multiplet species and so we cut that short but there was two others you talked about one was modifying the human genome yeah I'm just I'm not saying we should I'm just saying that that's the thing would really affect the future and next AI so a lot of people didn't weren't thinking about these same five things when they were in school uh particularly Humanity on Multi planets at that time well sci-fi was certainly thinking about it but um you know I think at some point we want to make science fiction not fiction forever and uh yeah so like let's make life multiplanetary and be a space faing civilization be out there Among the Stars um you know I think there are things that uh

like you have to be excited about the future um you know life life cannot just be about solving one problem after another um they have to be things that that that really sort of move your heart and that make you excited to wake up in the morning um and I think being a becoming a space bearing civilization is one of those things if you ask kids anywhere around the world like what is what are some of the most inspiring things you can ask like 5-year-old six-year-old anywhere in the world and they're going to say you know space exploration is one of those things and um and we want to make sure that we we're we're you know that Apollo is not the high water Mark um in fact you mentioned at one point at that you wrote a letter uh offering to run the Apollo

program I believe but and would I would you would have done a fantastic job but the the point is that the Apollo program was something that was inspiring uh to everyone um around the world and uh we we don't want the Apollo program to be the high Watermark of of human exploration and uh yeah we want I think you want to have some some sense that the future is going to be better than the past that we're going to be out there going to other star systems and uh you know what what you see in a science science fiction non- dystopian sci-fi story of which there are not many um but like Star Trek I suppose well speaking of Star Trek a lot you when I think about you let's look at Spock from Star Trek here space the final frontier These Are the Voyages of the Starship

Enterprise her ongoing mission to explore strange new worlds to seek out new life forms and new civilizations to boldly go where no one has gone before so when I think about you I think about Spock and Captain KK and you're going to take us to places we've never gone before yeah that's the [Applause] idea you know if we if we send probes out there we might I mean we we might find the remains of long dead alien civilizations um if physics is correct the the universe is about 13.

8 billion years old uh Earth is about 4 and2 billion years old so but at 13.

8 billion years a civilization that even lasted a million years is three digits past a decimal point and if you consider human civilization i i i dat it from like the first writing so that first writing was the ancient samarians uh archaic pre prec uniform around 5,500 years ago so that is 1 millionth of Earth's lifespan that's how long writing has existed so uh if we were to last if as a civilization for a million years that would be incredible um and we would actually probably be in every part of the Galaxy so this is this causes me to to think that well where are the aliens it's the FY question you know the the great physicist Italian physicist enrio fery he he's like where are they um now a lot of people think there are aliens Among Us um well there

was that there was that movie Men in Black you know yes yes told us they Among Us and Elvis really went back to his own Planet yeah um well I mean really a lot of people think they are aliens but uh I get asked that a lot and for some reason this the a lot of the same people who think there are aliens Among Us didn't think we don't think we went to the moon um which I'm like think about that for a [Laughter] second um you know so but I I I think I would I mean if I've not seen any evidence of aliens and Spa SpaceX with the Starling constellation has uh roughly 6,000 satellites and and not once have we had to maneuver around a UFO okay so we were like hey what's that is that an alien has occurred never um so so I'm like okay I don't see any evidence of

aliens and um I look at it if somebody has evidence of aliens in in a you know that's not just a fuzzy blob um then I'd love to see it love to hear about it um and uh but I don't think there is so which is actually reason for concern because you could if if any civilization in the Milky Way in our galaxy were to last for a million years uh even with uh spe of travel that's far below the speed of light you know like a few percent of speed of light they could easily uh have explored and colonized the whole galaxy so so they haven't so why not um I think the the the answer might be or perhaps probably is that that Civilization is precarious and rare um and that we you should really think of human civilization as being like a tiny candle in in a vast darkness

and we should do everything possible to ensure that that candle does not go [Applause] out so Alan I thought one of the interesting things for the people on X viewing this session and the people in the audience here is that maybe I'd give you a few of your quotes and you can comment on them okay let's start with this one free speech freedom of speech is the Bedrock of democracy without it America ends yes it's it's obviously not possible to have Democratic elections if people do not uh have access to the information that would allow them to make the right decision on a candidate or a party so if if speech is constrained in a fundamental way you you just can't expect people to make the the right decision or an informed decision ision because they are prevented

from being informed I think it's it's it's a very a foundational element and it's you know say like why why is free speech freom of speech the First Amendment because people came from countries where if you spoke freely you would be imprisoned or killed that was why they were like you know what we should make sure that we got that one um and remember remember that time where they triy to try to kill us back in the other country just just for saying we didn't like a political candidate well let's let's let's make sure that's okay in America so um and so actually in a lot of parts of the world you know you can't really say most parts of the world you can't really say what you want to say um without some bad consequences so and sometimes people forget like

why is the Constitution there the Constitution there is to protect the the people from the government uh so like if if they're it's to make it hard to change things um that's why the Constitution exists uh you know forget about that let try take it for granted let's try the next quote Yeah the fundamental ER of socialism is Shifting Capital allocation from highly effective entrepreneurs to astonishly ineffective government right I think we'll find hoty agreement in this room um [Laughter] so yeah I think that this is this is definitely a stack deck on that front um but but yeah the you know there's you you'll hear this sort of argument like oh we shouldn't have um some greedy Corporation do it we should have the government do it I'm like well actually

the government is just a corporation in the limit so if you it it's a government is the government is a corporation with a monopoly on violence um so if you're unhappy with a commercial Corporation doing it you should be actually very unhappy with the the government doing it since it is simply the a corporation the most corporate thing um and uh you know you can actually easily uh get get more sway in a in a company than you can the outome of a company than you can in the government um so I mean everyone's experienced this going to the DMV uh you said like do you want the DMV at scale probably not okay all right let's the government is the DMV at scale let's try another one discrimination on the basis of anything other than Merit is wrong yeah I think

I think do need to have a merit-based system because as soon as you you go down the path of you're going to discriminate on on non-it based uh then then where do you stop um so yeah I think we need to be as rigorous about Merit as possible and uh while it is yeah I to me that seems like it's that's a foundational foundational thing um so again I I also think this room is probably uh supportive of of a merit based uh situation um but yeah that's that that is yeah I think we should be yeah not not discriminated on anything other than Merit I I all right good I'm happy you agree with yourself yeah I mean exactly I'm like wait who is this guy he really uh sounds great all right so let's uh let's at the next one regulation and Regulatory consistency like guliver

tie down by thousands of little strings we lose our freedom one regulation at a time yes so this is actually a very important point that um I think is is uh not talked about enough uh that uh laws and regulations are Immortal they don't die humans die but but laws and regulations uh can last forever so if over if year after year there are more laws and regulations passed and more regulatory bodies created eventually everything will be illegal and that's why you see the the California highspeed rail um has made a a tiny section of that doesn't even have rail on it um and um for I don't know several billion dollars uh because everything's at this point California has uh made almost everything illegal um so you can't make progress uh now the the historically

what has cleared away the cobwebs of Regulation has been War um now we prefer not to have a war uh so in order to have civilization function without War you have to have a uh you have to actively eliminate laws and regulations so you have to have basically a garbage collection process for rules and regulations um that is necessary otherwise you get hardening of the arteries and uh over time nothing can get done the most poignant example that I can think of that happened this week was this the sad picture of the California highs speed rail um which is you know it's just billions of dollars spent for practically nothing um but it'll it'll only get worse year after year so we must have a regulatory uh sort of Clearing House garbage collection process um

this is essential um or civilization comes grinding to a halt well we used to have Sunset that that regulation would Sunset unfortunately it's rare today yes all right let's talk about education the more you can gamify the process of learning the better you do not need to tell your kid to play video games no they will play video games on autopilot all day so if you make it interactive and engaging then you can make education far more compelling and far easier to do yeah so the yeah so the way Education Works today is really much like like it's like bville um you know before there was radio and TV and movies you had bville where every town would have their their Town play the town troop the sort of acting troop um and that would be kind of the the uh that

would be the entertainment so uh you know some you know in a big city you'd have uh you know much better players than say in a small city um but then Along Came movies and uh TV and and and then you say like and video games where you take the the smartest best people in any Arena like whether they're acting writing directing special effects uh you spend uh you know tens of millions sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars creating a great movie or a great video game and and you make it as compelling as possible now that crushes fordville crushes like imagine you're not in New York imagine you're in Bakersfield okay then you and you got instead of Batman being like you know the Nolan Brothers um it's Batman The Bakers field sort of acting troop it wouldn't

be as good that's how teaching works today so what you actually want to have is an Interactive learning experience uh that is as compelling as possible and you do not want you do not actually want a teacher in front of a board doing a bville act you want and you want it to be engaged realtime feedback um so that's and and then you you there are a few other principles in in in teaching um you you have to establish relevance uh otherwise your mind will will want to forget things so our our our our mind is constantly trying to forget as much as possible so you'll only remember things if if your mind can establish relevance or there is a strong emotional element to it um otherwise you're going to basically going to forget forget everything um memory is is

very expensive from an evolutionary standpoint so it's trying to forget as much as possible so so when teaching a course you you have to explain to kids why it's important um and then you want to teach to the to the problem instead of teaching the tools so what I mean by that is if you said um here's a car engine we're we we're going to try to understand how to how this car engine works we're going to take it apart um so what do we need to do to take it apart well we need a wrench we need some screwdrivers we need a hoist and a pulley um and uh we're going to take it apart and we're going to see how it all works um that's engaging and along the way you learn about wrench and screwdrivers and you know all the tools that are needed that's that actually

is engaging and compelling but the way teaching more typically works is we're going to teach you a course on screwdrivers and a course on wrenches you're like why do I have a a course on wrenches it's not obvious that would be like say a course on calculus without explaining what calculus calculus is useful then you you sort of forget it yeah we have a lot lot of work to do in that area let's talk about a non-controversial issue immigration right here is Elon on immigration I'm very much in favor of increased and expedited legal immigration for anyone who is talented hardworking and honest yeah bizarrely it's difficult and agonizing slow to immigrate to the us legally but it's trivial and fast to enter illegally this obviously makes no sense right I mean

once again I agree with that guy uh so um yeah I mean if anyone here has been through the legal immigration process I I mean I've been been through it it's only gotten worse uh since 911 uh and with co uh it's uh it's an it's it's a sort of C Kafkaesque uh very long bizarre process to be uh immigrate legally to the US I mean I have friends of mine who you know they they can't get their their wife to have a green card it's like insane um so uh on the other hand it's uh you you can hop across the border in the South priv it's just like very easy I went to the Border myself just to see like what's going on is this real or like is this propaganda or real and so I went there and I'm like oh it is real okay uh this is crazy uh you know we've got situations

where people are pouring across the border like it's World War Z I'm like uh it this doesn't seem healthy um so I'm like are we checking anyone here or like what's going on and um you know we don't does is not say that I mean I'm a big believer in Immigration but to have unvetted immigration at Large Scale is a recipe for disaster um so I'm in favor of greatly Expediting um legal immigration but but having a secure Southern border uh so there's there's some betting of who comes into the United States I think this is just sensible all right let's let's Now link starlink to education we're basically building the internet in space why it matters starlink is a massive enabler for people in remote locations to learn anything yes you can learn almost anything

for free on the internet right now for example MIT has all of its lessons online that's if you have internet if you don't you're limited to books it might be the number one technology that improves people's standard of living around the world starlink yeah absolutely so once you have access to the internet you have access to all the world's information um but if you don't have access to the internet or it's too expensive uh or low bandwidth then you you cannot access the MIT lessons you can't access all the information um and you can't sell the goods and services that you produce so internet connectivity I think is I think it might be certainly a candidate for one of the things that would do more to lift people out of poverty out of poverty than anything

else U because they can now sell their goods and services they can learn anything um and but without connectivity they cannot so uh I think I think I think stall link will actually like like move the GDP of countries like it's going to be that kind of thing um because what is what is g GDP is as a function of a average productivity per person and so if there's a technology that improves productivity per person you would expect to see that actually reflected in the gross domestic product all right civilization is fragile I think it is we should always regard civilization as fragile yeah there is not an inevitable upward trajectory a lot of civilization have risen and fallen in recent years yes I I suspect most people in this room have actually read history

but if you haven't I strongly recommend it um it sounds obvious but um you know there's there's been the so many civilizations that have risen and Fallen um many that we just don't have much of a a record of um you know like I mentioned the ancient samarians um like their language was forgotten for a long time until it was finally decoded only in the last uh I don't know 2 300 years but like start 1800 and something or in the 1800s I think um but it's very recent like so for several thousand years nobody understood what those tablets meant um and uh they the they were the ruins of a long dead civilization and there are many long dead civilizations um at some point our civilization will come to an end too we just don't want it to be anytime soon um so

well you've been quoted a number of times Elon on you'd like to die on Mars but not on Landing yes yes I was I was asked that in in an interview if I wanted to die on but then I considered the corner case of um dying on impact and I'm like except for that case uh you know you got to consider the various Corner cases um so I mean if I'm going to if you're going to die somewhere might as well be Mars um I'd like to explore for a bit before you know dying um but um yeah I think I we want to be a multiplet civilization and like I think I don't know if that's a response from the audience let's let's talk about that just for one second now we're going to take some questions from the I mean I could accomplish this actually uh this year if I if I was willing

to die on impact um the fundamental invention that is necessary for Humanity to become a multi-planet species is rapid reusable reliable Rockets yeah I was trying to sound like a pirate r r r r uh but yeah rapidly reusable reliable Rockets um so uh space pirates P the win all right here's some questions from the audience Salon which one would you like to pick here um well I guess uh let me let me maybe just uh touch upon why I think making life multiplanetary is important because I think it's one of the things that gets us past one of the firy great filters so in in trying to sort of explain why do we not see aliens there are various explanations for why we don't see aliens like what stuffed those civilizations uh from from expanding beyond their solar

system and and and and and what were the what were the sort of the sometimes called like fmy filters um well if you don't become a multiplet civilization then you're then you're simply waiting around until you you die from a self-inflicted wound or from some natural disaster like the dinosaurs you get hit by a big uh meteorite or something like that um the eventually something like that's going to happen if you wait around long enough the sun will expand uh to engulf Earth and we'll be incinerated so that that for sure is going to happen now that'll we we we've got a we've got some time before that happens there more risks um but we want to try to get past the FY filter of being a single planet Civilization now this is going to this is all this is going

to be somewhat cerebral to many people listening but I mean but like I think this is pretty this is actually very important we want to get past the firmy filter of a single planet civilization the point is not to to move from Earth to another planet uh and let Earth die that's not what I'm saying at all I we want to be a multi-planet civilization so that we have planetary redundancy such that no single event can end can be the end of our civilization that is the point of making life multiplanetary so let's take a couple questions from the audience how does AI affect and how will it affect our daily lives AI I I I mean AI might be the most important question of all um the I mean the percentage of intelligence that is biological you know grows smaller with

each passing month eventually the percentage of intelligence that is biological will be less than 1 % the that's actually not what I mean we just I guess don't want AI that is brittle um if the AI is uh somehow brittle um you know silicon circuit boards are don't do well just out out in the elements so I think I think biological intelligence can serve as a a back stop as a as a buffer of intelligence uh but almost all as a percentage almost all intelligence will be uh digital um so then it's like well what role will there be for us I I don't know um I do think think it's very important that we build the AI in a way that um that is beneficial to humanity uh and there's some important principles here because I thought about AI safety for a very long time

um I think you want to have a maximum truth seeking AI uh this is very important the AI should not be taught to lie it should not be taught to say things that are not true um even if those things are Politically Incorrect it should still say those that say what it believes to be true um I mean the entire plot of 2001 Space Odyssey the reason that that uh HAL 9000 uh killed the astronauts was because it was forced to lie I don't know if most people realize that that's what arthor C Clark was trying to say don't make the AI lie um the was told that the that the astronuts could not know the secret of the monolith but also that it must take them to the monolith the solution take them to the monolith dead and so um so it's very important to have a maximum

truth seeking Ai and uh and and a maximally curious AI um and I think that will that's most likely to Foster human civilization because we are much more interesting than a bunch of rocks so although I think Mars I love Mars obviously um but but you could render Mars uh quite easily um because it kind of looks like the SE of the Arizona desert you know it's like Red Rocks you know um but the rendering complexity of human civilization is vastly greater by many orders of magnitude so I think an AI would be that that is truth seeking maximally curious would Foster human civilization to see where it where it goes one of the questions here can AI accelerate your efforts in space how do you see it being helping you in what you're trying to achieve I mean oddly

enough one of the the areas where there's almost no AI used is space exploration so SpaceX uses basically no AI starlink uses does not use AI I'm not I'm not against using it I just we haven't seen a use for it um I mean with any given variant of or improvements in AI the I mean there's generally like I'll ask it questions about the firmy Paradox um about rocket engine design about electrochemistry and so far the AI has been terrible at all of those questions so there still a long way to go so let's let's talk about one here's a question that's near and dear to your heart you you have a lot of children yes I'm trying to say a the birth rate is down in the US what needs to change so people start having more children yeah so this this question has troubled

me for a long time because you can look at you can look at the uh demog like demographics it's a very slow moving ship I mean you know who's going to be an adult in 20 years based on who was born last year so um and and I if if you want to I think has have a good approximation for population really look at how many babies were born last year in a particular country multiply that multiply that by life expectancy that's that's that's the number of people that will be adults in that country that's that's the that's the steady state population if birth rate remains constant now birth rate is not constant it is dropping so you look at the second derivative of birth rate and actually we see an an acceleration in uh the the the dro dropping in the in the dropping

the fertility rate second derivative of the fertility rate is very bad so um where does this lead this does not lead to uh a a greater civilization this leads to a civilization that potentially dies not with a bag but with a whimper in adult diapers that is a sad ending so obviously we have kind countries that like Korea used to have a birth rate of six it's now 3/4 yeah uh here's a here's a light question for you what do you come pick me I'll give you a baby says one what do you think are the that is one of the things that says on the screen yeah I don't know if everyone heard that you want to read it it says Elon come pick me up I'll give you a baby [Laughter] [Applause] thank [Applause] you okay well I mean I certainly encourage everyone in this room

to have uh at least three children uh like look baby's got to come from somewhere um you know um and uh I think we just want to have uh I don't know I think we want to have like a slightly increasing population not a plummeting population um you know and I think this applies to all countries cultures like I don't I don't think we want any country culture to disappear um we want them to ideally flourish um and and not disappear so um in fact one of the things that is overlooked by probably most historians is the role of low birth rate in the decline of civilizations um so around I think it was around 50 BC um uh the Rome Rome passed a Bill to give a bonus to any Roman citizen that would have a third child so this was a birth rate was a problem in Rome

in 50 BC the Romans weren't making Romans um the same is true of ancient Greece um so the the there was a time from about 800 BC to 300ish BC where the Greeks were had a lot of kids um and lot of surviving kids like the birth rate far exceeded the death rate which is why you had Greek cities popping up all over the the Mediterranean um but then I think basically it seems to be that Prosperity is uh destroys the birth rate so if when when a civilization uh feels like it has no no meaningful external threat and is very prosperous uh that is what causes the birth rate to plummet somewhat counterintuitively you think well if you got more resources surely that would lead to more more kids in fact it is the opposite the more the more prosperous a civilization

and the more the civilization feels that it does not need to defend against external threats the lower the birth rate I I'd say that you know there's a lot of research on there there's really been three one number one prosperity it as you've said number two improvements in health care so in 1900 half the children died on the planet before the fifth and the third was the education of women so we've had some pretty interesting questions put up here but let's try this one what keeps you up at night and what gives you Joy well I think kids give me joy um so I probably get the most Joy from uh my kids um and um you know I'm not saying that that's the reason to have kids because we should have them anyway but I I uh I certainly kids are I certain are the greatest

source of drawing in my life um in terms of what keeps me up at night I guess there anything that's like I think a civilizational risk um you know if were the birth rates continuing to plummet like I do think about the birth rates plummeting as being a civilization ational risk um I think anything that undermines the foundations of Democracy in America or elsewhere as uh a risk um I think uh anything that's leading us away from a merit-based system is a risk uh I actually spend um like like I I listen to civil I I listen to like podcasts about the fall of civilizations to go to sleep so peps that's that might be part of the problem here um there a podcast called fall of civilizations which I've listened to a few times um and um I I'd also recommend Hardcore

History if you haven't listened to that that's that's a great podcast I I listen to Listen to History Podcast basically to go to sleep so that that's probably why I'm ruminating on these things as I go to sleep well L I want to thank you for joining us today and we couldn't be more excited that you agree with some of your own quotes yeah that's great thank you very much all right cool all right