[音乐] 谢谢你来参加。我知道今天办公室里很忙。是啊，我想，当你经营大公司时，每天在办公室里都很忙。有些日子比其他日子更紧张，今天属于更紧张的那种。嗯，我们来谈谈Tesla吧。如果有人相信媒体上读到的一切——作为一名前记者，我不相信——最近Tesla汽车起火的事件听起来就像1937年的兴登堡灾难，对吧，人类啊。嗯，现实情况有些不同。告诉我们，告诉我们那里究竟发生了什么。呃，是的，嗯，所以我的意思是，我首先认为，一项新技术受到比旧技术更多的审视是公平的，因为它应该达到更高的标准，但这种提高后的标准应该达到什么程度，也存在某种合理的限度，而

我的意思是，自从Model S大约1年半前投产以来，美国大约发生了25万起汽油车火灾，嗯，约400人死亡、1,200人重伤。嗯，我们的3起火灾没有造成任何人受伤，嗯，却比其他25万起加起来得到了更多的头条新闻报道。这似乎是一个不合理的比例。而且我相信，那3位撞车车主都想再买一辆。是的，对，没错。就像，别只听我说，他们，他们当时就像我说的，好吧，在保险问题解决之前，他们多快能拿到一辆代步车？而你，所以当时我们立刻给了他一辆。但是，嗯，是的，我的意思是，那才是资产测试，就像那个

经历了那场火灾的人，他还想再拥有同样的车吗？你在里面感到安全吗？嗯，股价今天又下跌了10%，你在意吗？我的意思是，经营一家上市公司有点糟糕。嗯，是的，是的，我的意思是，股价会经历这些巨大的“盖申斯”，嗯，而且，是的，原因似乎很随意。呃，然后别人会要我解释它为什么变了，我就像，我不知道。应该指出的是，它今年上涨了300%。是的，对。我的意思是，总体而言，那仍然，仍然不错。嗯，但我的意思是，当股价高得多，而人们问我怎么看估值时，我说，好吧，我认为它可能超过了我们理应获得的水平。我们会努力长期达到那个水平，而且我认为我们会做到，并且可能会超过它，但是，呃，我不会

试图为一家营收略高于20亿美元的公司应该拥有220亿美元市值辩护。你知道，这在我看来确实相当高。所以，是的，而且可以公平地说，没有政府补贴，你们到不了那里。嗯，我认为那会花更长时间。所以，Ian，关于Tesla的历史存在一点误解，也就是政府资金起了决定性作用。它是一种加速剂，但并非决定性因素。真正起决定性作用的事情，呃，节点，是戴姆勒在2009年、2009年初的一笔投资。当时，我，我，我基本上已经花光了我所有的钱，而我们只有1家公司愿意投资，或者说只有1个实体愿意投资，就这么简单，那就是dla。如果他们当时没有带着那笔投资进来

我们肯定早就死了。嗯，幸运的是，破产、完蛋，是的，没了。嗯，而且，呃，幸运的是，他们确实投了，而我们已经与Dio开展了多个车辆项目，其中那个，呃，梅赛德斯bclass，目前并未在美国生产，但它在欧洲和世界其他地区非常受欢迎，它将进入美国市场，而且会配备Tesla电池包和动力总成。这将是down历史上规模最大的电动汽车项目。呃，所以，那个，你知道，所以我们关系很好，他们一直是非常、非常有力的支持者。嗯，Tesla的自动驾驶版本呢？嗯，我确实认为那是一项重要技术，尽管，呃，要实现完全自动驾驶，难度会呈指数级增加。嗯，要覆盖所有边缘情况。嗯，所以我认为我们可以达到

也许90%的行驶里程都由我们所称的自动辅助驾驶来完成，因为这里采用的是某种航空类比。嗯，我认为我们很快就能实现，也许几年内，但，呃，要覆盖最后那10%确实非常困难，所以从90%提高到99，再到99。

9，然后，我的意思是，最终要实现真正的自动驾驶，比如你可以睡着，而汽车会抵达你的目的地，呃，那会非常棒。顺便说一句，有些人已经这么做了。是的，没错。嗯，他们死了。是的。嗯，那，那，那就是，那只是，我认为你可能需要类似69 Z责任。嗯，比如其标准实际上必须远远高于人的安全性，可能要高出10倍或100倍，你，为了让人们感到放心，呃，否则，好吧，就像这次起火事件，你知道，就像，如果你在意火灾问题，一辆车基本上就是你能驾驶的最安全的车。嗯，而，而那并不是人们阅读头条新闻时会形成的印象，你会得到某种相反的印象。所以对于自动、自动驾驶

或者自动辅助驾驶，嗯，是的，希望媒体不会做同样的事，同样做出极其不成比例的反应。但是，呃，但我确实认为，它应该达到一种也许比人类好10倍的标准。我知道Google也在研究这个。大约10年？是的，嗯，我，我的意思是，我认为正确的路径可能与Google正在走的路径略有不同。嗯，而且，呃，拉里·佩奇是我的一位老朋友，在他为Google获得风险投资之前，我就认识他。嗯，而且我认为他是个非常聪明的人，但是，呃，我的意思是，这不是，Google没有专注于，专注于，专注于自动驾驶汽车，而这将成为Tesla一个相当重要的重点。而从我们的角度来看，只有在自动辅助驾驶能力不会

导致汽车成本大幅增加的情况下，它才有意义。而Google那套传感器套件的配置方式，它就像，它就像要6万美元，你知道，我的意思是，那可很多。我想问问你关于冒险的问题。嗯，因为有一种理论认为，那些创业者一旦大获成功过1次，把那家价值超过10亿美元的公司做成了，对吧，他们就不愿再做1次，并不是因为他们害怕赔钱，而是因为他们觉得，如果第2次失败了，那么在他们自己心里，也许他们会想，好吧，第1次只是运气，并不真的是因为我自己的能力，或者我自己经营企业的判断力。但你不仅，好吧，你把PayPal提升到了15

亿美元，你从中退出后，不仅再次投资，而且再次投资了2次。不仅如此，你还选择了可能是风险最高、资本最密集的2个行业：火箭技术，基本上就是一枚炸弹，对吧，定向朝上。是的。然后是汽车，你知道，我们知道底特律正在发生什么。是的。嗯，所以，是什么激励你去做这件事，再次经历熔炉般的考验，而且又经历了2次？是的，我不确定那是不是正确的决定，但是，嗯，到目前为止还不错。是的。嗯，它，它，它远没有看起来那么有趣。但是，嗯，我的意思是，就我原本设想的情况而言，我会创办并经营SpaceX，然后，再和另外几个人一起创建一家电动汽车公司，工作只是，但只是投入我20%的时间，并且工作

在产品设计方面，嗯，因为我的主要工作是工程和设计，所以，嗯，那个，是的，那是，嗯，一种错觉，呃，所以，呃，是的，而且，嗯，然后我其实别无选择，只能把大量时间投入Tesla，否则公司肯定会，你知道，倒闭，所以，嗯，但还有另一种做法，你本可以留在硅谷，再创办几家互联网公司，赚到，哦对，10亿美元，然后你可以买下克莱斯勒，可能还可以买下NASA，也就不必从零开始了。那似乎太容易了。是啊，嗯，好吧，我们继续。我不，我其实不想——重点并不是要拥有一家汽车公司，而是要加速可持续交通的到来，而且，嗯，那似乎会

很困难。我们来谈谈SpaceX。SpaceX，你说过，你创办它的明确意图是前往火星。呃，是的，这个，SpaceX的Argin其实并不是——或者说，我对太空的兴趣，我最初关于太空的想法是，不可能创办一家公司，嗯，而且我错误地以为，我们没有把人送到Ms，是因为我们失去了探索的意愿之类的，或者可能类似那样。我想，好吧，也许需要重新点燃这种意愿，于是想出了这样一个主意：基本上执行一项前往M的慈善任务，有100%的概率损失所有资金，嗯，以便重新激起人们对那个目标的兴趣，嗯，但过了，过了一段时间，我意识到那其实，那是一个错误。我的意思是，美国是

是一个探索者的国家，你知道，人们从世界其他地方来到这里，嗯，我认为，它比任何其他国家都更是人类探索精神的凝练。这里并不缺乏意愿，但人们需要相信有一条路，呃，一条可行的路，而且它不会让国家破产，他们的生活水平也不会受到实质性影响，你知道，如果——然后我认为他们对，对那个目标超级、超级热衷。现在，当你展望未来，无论我们说的是10、15、20年后抵达火星，这不只是火箭技术，而且，而且你谈到过可重复使用火箭技术，还包括如何保护人们免受辐射，这是一次10、12个月的旅程，他们抵达后要做什么，你知道，他们要怎样

在那里生活？你——那也是你想从事的事情吗，还是你会与其他公司合作？你怎么看，你怎么看未来10年这件事会如何发展？嗯，我其实认为，在M上生活所需的，那些，那些技术并不是，并不是特别困难，嗯，但，但，但抵达那里确实非常困难，呃，呃，我是说，那就像要跨越数亿英里，嗯。去死亡谷。是的，没错，去一个看起来有点像亚利桑那州的地方，你知道，呃，就像寒冷版的亚利桑那州，水还没那么多，嗯，所以，嗯，我是说，至少那，那是我最好的，我的，我的猜测是，我，我认为如果我们能，如果我们能抵达那里，在那里生活所需的技术将会——是，不是一个，不是一个，不是一个真正的大挑战。我的意思是，呃，火星有一些优势

它有一个——它、它在某些方面相当像地球。它的自转周期是24又1/2小时，远远比其他任何行星都更接近，嗯，大气是二氧化碳，呃，现在它、它不是——它的气压很低，但如果你有一个透明穹顶，呃，你、你所需要的就只是一台、一台泵，呃，以及一些、一些肥料，你就可以在 Ms 上种植植物，植物会把 CO2 转化为氧气，嗯，最近新闻里的另一件大事是超级高铁，嗯，你已经勾勒出了它的构想，你估计从洛杉矶到旧金山需要35分钟。是啊，你还可以稍微再推进一点，不过——嗯，要是我能从圣莫尼卡到市中心，我就很高兴了。我知道，我知道你个人对 405 号公路有意见。405 号公路就像这个

就像是我亲眼见过的最残酷的建设项目。我的意思是，这简直令人难以置信，嗯，但我、我也知道，所以你勾勒出了这个构想，但我知道，你、你、你关于超级高铁的方案已经被输入了一些相当先进的仿真技术。是的。而且看起来它实际上可能行得通，我说得对吗？对，嗯，而且、而且我们确实在 SpaceX 和 Tesla 进行了仿真，呃，所以你知道，我们、你知道，我们认为它会行得通，但我的意思是，我其实不认为这特别——就像，我的意思是，我、我认为、我认为它的、这个工程方案能够运作，实际上是相当、相当显而易见的，说实话。但我的意思是，它——所以我认为更大的问题是政治方面的，你知道，要获得政治支持来做那样的事情，而且

呃，然后，呃，你知道，要确保经济账算得过来，嗯，呃，是的，我希望有人去做，因为我觉得那会很酷。我的意思是，能有那样的东西会很棒，只是，我们的大众交通似乎没有变得更好，反而似乎在变得更糟，所以那、那不是一个美好的未来。你说了有件事你希望别人去做。我很好奇，真正让你如此独特的，不仅是你敢于做大梦的能力，还有把它执行出来的能力。外面有许多乌托邦思想家，但他们无法执行，嗯，不过也有其他一些人能够做出好东西。我想知道，似乎是什么在激励你？你看到一些令你沮丧的事情，或者你认为它们没有你希望的那么好，然后你就努力去修正它们。

你做过太阳能，做过电动汽车，还有、还有行星际太空旅行，嗯。我想知道，对于美国乃至整个世界，有哪些事情是你希望得到解决的，无论是由一家你可能亲自创办的公司，还是由某位聪明的企业家来解决？外面还有、还有、还有什么是可行的？你知道，我们都想消除世界贫困，也想消除儿童疾病，但、但外面有哪些问题能够切实得到解决，比如说在我们有生之年？嗯，我的意思是，我认为首先，呃，现在的世界其实相当美好，呃。我的意思是，可以说比历史上的任何时候都更好，嗯，而这一点有时会被忽略，如果你读报纸，它们、它们就像是全世界所有问题的一种、一种……化。

就像，我的意思是，报纸似乎在试图回答这个问题：今天地球上发生的最糟糕的事情是什么？是的，而且没错，见血就上头条。是的，而且、而且这就像，好吧，我的意思是，我认为这背后有某种进化原因，因为这样更合理，比如，你会想要把危险置于奖励之上，或者、或者、或者，因为如果你被狮子吃掉，游戏就结束了；但你知道，如果你、如果你忘了把某些零食放在哪里，那、那没关系。我的意思是，你、你知道，所以、所以在风险回报平衡方面，这、这、这并不完全相同，但我们进化时并没有报纸，呃，也没有、也没有、也没有全球媒体，所以就像，我们的大脑有点在对许许多多极其不太可能

真正影响到我们的危险产生恐惧反应，不过，是的，就是，是的。你在 Tesla，我相信大约有 3,000 人。我们有 6，6,000 人。对，6,000 人。我、我的、我的消息真灵通。而 SpaceX 是，呃，是 3500 人，所以那是工程人才的大规模、大规模聚集。非常庞大。是的。如果、如果、如果、如果我可以用船来作比喻，你有多少时间能下到轮机舱，卷起袖子，亲手干活，并以工程师的身份修理东西？又有多少时间是在舰桥上掌舵，并眺望、眺望遥远的地平线？嗯，最后一点占的时间不多，呃。我的意思是，呃，我的意思是，总有一连串执行方面的挑战，嗯，所以我会根据怎样对公司最有利来对自己的时间进行分诊，呃，同时、同时仍然，你知道，留出一些时间来

看我的孩子，你知道，因为我想错过他们长大。所以，你知道，事情可以从大问题到一些看似很小、但实际上可能产生非常重大影响的事情，嗯。也就是说，它、它涵盖从设计美学到，呃，比如车辆功能的细节，或者就火箭而言，呃，你知道，航空电子设备、推进系统和，呃，机体。我的意思是，火箭有点、有、有更为集中的令人紧张因素，嗯，因为你有、它是、你有这些发射，而且、而且，嗯，至少汽车还可以反冲，或者比如进行软件更新，但火箭不会有这样的机会。所以它就像是，及格分数是 100%，呃，这会引发焦虑。你知道，当你实际上在等待

倒计时时，你如何应对发射焦虑？我们、我们在这里看到过一次。嗯，这些其实，我的意思是，它们、这、这会让我非常焦虑，呃，因为我总是在想，哦，我们一定有什么地方做错了，而我是否本可以做些什么，防止这个假想的事情、这个坏事情发生，嗯。我的意思是，最近，嗯，大约 10 枚运载火箭都、都、都运作成功了，呃，但、但、但我们最初的 3 枚运载火箭没有成功。所以远比任何一次都更糟的情绪压力来自 Falcon 1 的第 4 次发射，因为前 3 枚运载火箭都没有进入轨道；在第 2 次和第 3 次发射中，它们算是到达了太空，但没有达到完整的总体速度。而且，呃，而且我、我开始时盘算的是，我的钱应该够进行 3 次、3 次

发射。糟了。是的，糟了。所以我当时是、那是，我们在第 4 次、第 4 次时勉强过关了。嗯，我们今天发出了一个链接，我不知道你们中有多少人看过，它展示的是你用、用双手，呃，作为某种 3D 塑形工具，来操作你在电脑屏幕上做的东西；那是一个你能够用双手操控的火箭发动机，嗯。我知道你曾告诉制作或执导《钢铁侠》的乔恩·费儒，那、那正是灵感来源，因为我们看到托尼·斯塔克在电影中这样做。完全正确。嗯，而且我也知道，你知道，我读过一点艾萨克·阿齐莫夫的《基地》系列，你也说过它一直是灵感来源。所以我想知道，实际上是阿齐莫夫的粉丝。当、当你身处当今科技前沿，而且是在你所涉足的这些领域中时，你是否感觉自己几乎

已经有一只脚踏进了科幻小说？这是否、你、你是否必须领先那么远？嗯、嗯，你必须，嗯，想象和结果，才能朝那个方向前进，嗯，而科幻小说探索了许多不同的想法，所以，嗯，它可以，你知道，作为灵感来源而有所帮助，嗯。而且、而且，你知道，比如书籍、电视节目、电影，我认为它们都是，呃，灵感来源，嗯。我的意思是，大多数电影和电视节目那个太空都完全错了，呃，但、呃，但它们有一些有趣的想法，比如《星际迷航》里的通讯器，嗯，它曾是，呃，手机的灵感来源。是的，就是那个翻盖的。对，对，是的，没错。嗯，我要，事实上奇怪的是，就像、就像、就像我们口袋里的手机远远超过了《Stock Trek》里出现的东西。我们接下来要去请一些

我们的学生，嗯，问一些问题，但先再问一个，嗯。我看到了，我是个狂热的詹姆斯·邦德粉丝。他刚买下了他们在，嗯，《海底城》中使用的 Lotus S Spre，就是那辆能潜到水下的车。是的。而且你要让它真正运转起来。所以那肯定是一个背景项目。好吧，但我的问题是，我们什么时候能看到一艘可以运作的千年隼？这个有点棘手，因为它、它的形状其实不对，嗯，呃。哦，它，我的意思是，对乔治·卢卡斯来说不是这样。是的，我的意思是，Falcon 9，也就是我们的 Falcon 火箭，是，呃，以千年隼命名的，尽管它看起来完全不像千年隼，嗯。而且，呃，是的，我的意思是，是的，你、对于 Miss B 飞船来说，那确实不是你想要的形状。好吧，那么如果我们能把摄像机转向学生桌那边，我们来听几个问题。

听完那边的问题，然后我会转向其余观众提交的书面问题。那么开始吧。晚上好，先生，我叫 Ariel Haus，来自 vonck century。关于 Merlin 9，BasX 是否有一台可运行的原型机？它什么时候能准备好发射？呃，嗯，Merin 是我们、我们的发动机名称，嗯，而 Falcon 9 是火箭的名称，嗯。我们，呃，已经进行了，嗯，数次 Falcon 9 发射，嗯。几个月前出现了一个重要的里程碑，也就是下一代 Falcon 系列的发射，它的设计目标是能够返回，呃，并降落在发射台，嗯。而且，嗯，在最初的任务中我们、我们接近成功了，但没有、没有完全做到，呃。我们需要做几处、几处修正，但我认为我们、我们很有机会做到这一点。

明年做到。好的，我们再来一个。你好，我是来自 Harvard weslake 的 Kennedy Green。我看过你在一次 TED 演讲中的发言，我记得你非常强调你的创新取得的成功，以及你如何采用某种物理学方法，也就是把一个想法拆解到它最基本的层面，然后从那里开始构建。那么，你能谈谈一个你使用这种过程的例子吗？嗯，我认为，你知道，在，呃，创新或努力创造新事物时，一件重要的事情就是、就是、就是要非常努力地去做，嗯。这听起来可能明显得难以置信，但，呃，据我观察，这恰恰是人们最常没有做的事；他们实际上并没有、没有极其努力地去想出一些新东西，嗯。而且、而且，进行交叉碰撞是有帮助的

各行各业，嗯，我是说，运营 SpaceX 和 Tesla 一直相当困难，但也有过一些好点子，你知道，因为我的脑子里两边都有，这些好点子就在来回流动。嗯，例如在汽车方面，就这款车而言，Model S 是北美制造的唯一一款全铝车身 en Chanty 汽车，而全铝汽车非常少见；在航空航天业，这却是默认做法。嗯，所以，为了最大限度地减少汽车中电池包以外的质量，这显然像是正确的举措。因此，为了抵消相当沉重的电池包，我们必须让汽车的其余部分变轻，但仍要达到，呃，festar 安全评级。嗯，我认为如果我们使用了

钢，这是传统方法，嗯，而且，帮助了SpaceX的一点是，汽车行业非常擅长以低成本制造复杂物体。我的意思是，实际上相当不可思议，比如一个人能花20,000美元买到一辆不错的车。我的意思是，那辆车里的所有东西，我是说，一辆车里有那么多东西，简直疯了。嗯，所以，呃，在SpaceX，呃，我从订单行业雇了一批人来负责制造，效果还算不错。请再提2个学生问题，然后我们再来回答其他书面问题。你好，嗯，我是来自马伯学校的娜塔莉·沃森，我们有一个逐步展开的、可以说分成2部分的问题。那么，为什么你认为Tesla成功了，而其他公司，嗯，汽车公司在他们所采用的

方法，嗯，在电动汽车方面失败了？而且位于硅谷是其中一个重要因素吗？是的，我认为，我认为在硅谷相当重要，呃，因为对电动汽车真正至关重要的是电气工程、软件和电子技术，呃，而硅谷拥有世界上这些领域最集中、最优秀的人才。嗯，还有，是的，抱歉，问题的第1个父亲是什么？你为什么成功？哦，我们为什么成功。哦，对，成……抱歉，你的问题是什么？哦，第1部分，好吧。嗯，为什么你认为Tesla成功了，而其他汽车公司在他们的电动……电动汽车方法上失败了？比如，为什么你认为Tesla是这一理念的领导者？嗯，汽车初创公司并没有那么多，呃，伊恩，有

可以说是Fisker，呃，还有Kota，嗯，然后还有几家更小的公司，嗯，而其余的基本上是大公司所做的一些、一些规模相当小的尝试。嗯，呃，我、我、我、我认为，如果、如果我们要说，比如Fisker和Tesla之间有什么区别，那也许是最直接的比较。呃，Tesla是一家硬核工程公司，而visker算是一个……过去是建立在某种造型设计之上的。你知道，就像造型设计很好、很重要，但那并不是我们没有电动汽车的原因。所以，不是说，你知道，要不是因为造型设计，我们本来就会有电动汽车；原因不在这里。嗯，所以在fisa的案例中，他们制造了一辆，呃，许多人认为看起来非常漂亮、但无法正常工作的车。因此人们就不想买这辆车。嗯，这就像

一件相当合理的事，我觉得。嗯，还有，是的，嗯，是的，我的意思是，如果你想想，比如、比如一家公司存在的意义是什么，那么意义就在于，它、它是一群聚集在一起创造一种产品的人。如果产品好，公司就应该存在；如果产品不好，公司就不应该存在。嗯，这似乎是公司的本质根基。所以，我的意思是，很显然，一个人应该专注于制造自己所能制造的绝对最好的产品，否则你就会降低成功的概率。但很多公司把重点放在与产品并没有真正关系的事情上，嗯，就好像一家公司除了做有用的事情之外，还有什么存在的依据。这有点奇怪。请再提1个学生问题。呃，晚上好。

先生，我叫埃里克·佩洛，来自，呃，Von Next Century。关于火星，呃，拟议中的火星远征，嗯，你究竟打算如何让它实现成本效益？当然。嗯，那个问题确实、确实很棘手。嗯，我的意思是，我觉得相当有可能，嗯，成功至少是可能出现的结果之一。嗯，就像这是一个……我的意思是，当你试图做某件事时，这一点相当重要，就像，好吧，那能不能成为结果之一？直到几年前，我实际上对此都没有信心。嗯，现在我不是说我们一定能到达那里，但我、我、我、我有信心，至少这是可能的。嗯，而其中的关键是拥有一个完全可重复使用的MOS运输系统，这样你、你在两次飞行之间所放置的全部东西，可能除了

少量维护之外，就只有推进剂。嗯，我的意思是，这、这就像，可重复使用性对于，呃，对于太空飞行发生重大的、一个、一个、一个、一个、一个、一个变化来说，是如此根本，其重要性怎么强调都不为过。嗯，不过，我的意思是，类比其他运输方式，你可以想……想象一下，如果飞机只能使用1次，嗯，那就只会有极少数人坐飞机，嗯，因为那会贵得超级离谱。嗯，你知道，估计1架747要花2.5亿美元。光是往返一趟你就需要2架，但人们往返伦敦并没有支付5亿美元。嗯，那是因为你可以把747使用大约20,000次。嗯，而对于火箭来说，1枚falcon9火箭的制造成本约为60,000,000美元，所以如果你只能被使用1次，显然

那就是60,000,000美元的资本成本；但如果你能被使用1,000次，那么资本成本就只有60,000美元。嗯，而我的意思是，那就是，你……它是、它是、它是根本性的区别。所以你必须拥有完全可用的，然后还必须确保所使用的推进剂成本尽可能低。因此，我们的下一代火箭将使用甲烷作为燃料，甲烷是、是地球上成本最低的来源燃料，嗯，而且低了相当大一截。所以，呃，因此我认为，如果、如果、如果你的推进剂成本很低，而且系统可以完全重复使用，那么我认为，我认为应该有可能用不到500,000美元移居火星。我认为这是一个重要门槛，因为如果人们能够卖掉他们在地球上的所有东西并移居火星，那么，呃，而且

有足够多的人能够这样做，嗯，再加上那些真正想这样做的人，呃，那么那、那么那、那就是在火星上建立一个不断发展的殖民地所需的根本条件。我的意思是，有点像美国过去的样子，比如美洲早期的英国殖民地。嗯，当人们卖掉自己在英格兰的所有东西并，嗯，移居美国变得负担得起时，它发展得非常快。嗯，如果没有这一点，它、它就会需要巨额的政府支持，而且、而且我认为很可能不会、不会造就一个能够自我维持的文明。所以其经济性是极其根本的。不，谢谢。是的，好吧。嗯，我要过一遍我们从现场收到的一些问题。嗯，而我想问的第1个

是，嗯，你认为锂离子之后的下一代电池技术是什么？我猜锂离子可以说已经或多或少触及上限了，还是没有？不，不，我认为锂离子电池还会出现重大改进，嗯，不需要任何，不，不需要奇迹。嗯，锂离子技术在恒定能量密度成本方面的情况是，它每年可以说平均改进约8%。这在1只耳朵的基础上并不那么明显，但、但复利是一股非常强大的力量。呃，所以，比如经过4年或5年，成本就会减半，前提是存在一种推动机制，存在一种推动改进的强有力推动机制，我认为电动汽车提供了这种机制。所以，你知道，我对

实现，嗯，电池组成本的大幅下降感觉相当不错，呃，比如在差不多3年或4年的时间范围内。它仍然远远落后于微型dou的M定律，什么都没有、什么都没有。我的意思是，唯一以M的LW速度运作的东西就是M定律。嗯，你知道，半导体就是拥有这样一种不可思议的优势：当你把它们做得更微小时，它们的效率就会高得多。嗯，对于像那样的东西，那是一个大型的、比如电池组这样的宏观结构，你就是没有……实际上几乎任何东西，基本上，我会说，事实上除了微处理器和存储器之外的任何东西，嗯，都不会以那种速度改进。嗯，是的。嗯，这里还有另一个问题。嗯，它是关于医疗技术的。有没有哪种医疗应用或技术是你、你

想要改变的，或者希望看到其他人改变、研究的？嗯，医疗技术。嗯，我认为会最深刻地影响人们的事情，呃，是能够、能够重新编码遗传信息，这显然是一种危险的局面。嗯，呃，但那、那就是关键，比如，我们、我们在寿命方面已接近饱和。我的意思是，它基本上可以说差不多已经趋于平稳。嗯，而且，呃，所以，即使你解决了，比如任何一种特定疾病，你也许会略微提高预期寿命，但、但提高不了多少。嗯，你知道，这就像，你、你算是对任何一个特定物种都有一套针对某个寿命的遗传编程。比如、比如无论你做什么，都不可能让一只果蝇活10年。我的意思是，再多的健康生活、维生素或任何东西都不行。嗯，这就像你

知道可以，所以，虽然果蝇能活20年，那会是，那会是一项真正惊人的成就，嗯，不过是的，所以我的意思是，这是一个非常棘手的话题，呃，你知道，这是Frau，伴随着各种各样的道德问题，但嗯，那是最会影响人们生活的事情，但它，我的意思是，它当然是一把双刃剑。那么这里还有一个问题，嗯，来自一位Tesla车主，为什么后面没有衣帽钩？是的，他说，或者她说，你能设计火箭，却忘了衣帽钩。好吧，我其实没忘，我只是，我是故意不喜欢它，所以没把它放在那里，嗯，它的美观性真的让我很困扰，但嗯，我知道，你知道，显然有些人不同意那个决定，嗯，但我想，我想我们可能会有，嗯，一个追溯性的

修复方案，如果有人装了全景车顶，呃，也就是基本上在车顶中间的弓形部分装个钩子，嗯，然后，然后你的代码就可以垂到第二排乘客脚部空间里，这其实比在车身侧面装一个突出来的衣帽钩稍微好一点，嗯，所以我想我们可能会那么做，嗯，是的，不管这个问题来自哪里，等等，这不是我第一次听到这个问题，我敢肯定，我敢肯定。氢燃料发动机有未来吗？呃，是的，其实我要讲一件小轶事，就是，哦对了，呃，在mod生产初期，我也没有，嗯，在第二排安装阅读灯，呃，因为就像，嗯，人们，我以为人们真的在转向，呃，你的电子书

嗯，Kindle和iPad之类的东西，就像，所以它们有自己的灯，他们不需要后面有一盏真正的灯，嗯，呃，然后，呃，我和我的一个孩子开车时，他，他正试着读他的书，爸爸，是的，我，他，他说，呃，这是世界上最stest的车。好吧，我们会把灯装回去，嗯。氢燃料发动机有未来吗？我，我，你知道，我不这么认为，呃，氢是一种非常困难的，呃，储能机制。我的意思是，本质上它是一种以化学方式储存能量的手段，呃，但有好得多的，如果你想那么做，有比氢好得多的材料，比如我会远在考虑氢之前就选择甲烷或丙烷，嗯，事实上，他们制造氢的方式就是取用甲烷，然后，然后

把那个那个碳原子切掉，所以就像，嗯，那似乎是一种浪费，呃，或者他们会进行电解，那就更糟了，呃，所以所以这真的非常耗能，要么就像，要么仍然在大规模开采碳氢化合物，或者，嗯，你你要施加大量电力来分离，呃，H2O，嗯，然后有些人会说，哦，好吧，氢是宇宙中最常见的元素，是的，但在地球上不是，这是一个重要的考虑因素，嗯，你知道，这就是，是的，这是那种听起来总像是，就像它是那种，它是未来，而且永远都会是未来的东西，然后还有兴登堡号的问题，是的，我是说，就兴登堡号而言，据我了解，主要问题是那个

外表面的油漆，呃，而不是氢本身，但但氢确实极其容易燃烧，嗯，就像，氢有一个有一个，有充分的理由把氢用作火箭上面级的燃料，嗯，比如土星5号的第2级和第3级使用了氢，嗯，尤其是火箭的上面级，在那里你不受体积限制，嗯，呃，或者或者更确切地说，你你受质量限制，而不是受体积限制，呃，如果你在意质量，氢就很好，如果你在意体积，氢就很糟糕，呃，而且从操作角度看它也很糟糕，因为它是一种非常微小的分子，会跑得到处都是，嗯，你看看史蒂夫·乔布斯之后的苹果和比尔·盖茨之后的微软，它们都很难保持势头

我想知道，你是否考虑过你的公司Tesla和SpaceX的未来，嗯，我知道你你谈过要捐出很多钱，嗯，但我也知道你对此还有过一些别的想法，而且你看过福特，并思考自己是否想要捐，我是说，你现在在那个继任问题上的立场是什么？嗯，我我我不知道，就像，从财富角度来说，我不确定整个那种家族王朝的事情，我是说，那似乎会，你知道，结果往往比如果如果如果如果没有给孩子一大笔钱还要糟，嗯，我是说，除非除非他们实际上已经证明自己很有能力成为资本的好管家，否则，嗯，你知道，给他们一大笔钱不会不会有好结果，嗯，话虽如此

我是说，我对此有一点动摇，因为如果你看看福特和通用汽车的例子，就像通用汽车破产了，福特没有，福特家族发挥了稳定作用，所以让家族发挥稳定作用可能有一定价值，但但也许未必需要完全控制，嗯，我们将用2个关于超级高铁的问题作结，这显然在洛杉矶激起了很多情绪，其中1个来自加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森管理学院，我知道负责管理加州大学洛杉矶分校的吉恩·布洛克也在这里，嗯，但他们想知道，你如何设想把超级高铁作为一个开源项目，同时以传统企业方式运营并创造利润，这说得通吗？呃，是的，我想，这个，我是说，我认为对某个人来说，执行，呃

超级高铁项目会相当困难，而真正重要的是那家公司在执行方面有多出色，而不是这个系统的基本那种理念，嗯，所以我不会，我认为一家公司不必太担心创造价值，前提是他们真的很擅长执行，嗯，而且，呃，开源方面可能最好的例子是Linux，嗯，而且有很多公司，嗯，相当有价值，尽管Linux是开源的，接下来的问题来自另一个人，他想知道，超级超级高铁可能会在什么时候准备好，我们能坐它去澳大利亚吗？那会是，我不会建议用它，呃，去澳大利亚，因为澳大利亚真的非常远，嗯，所以，像超级高铁这样的东西最适用的是那些距离

也许是5，大约500英里，但可能不超过1000英里，嗯，这是因为如果，嗯，如果你拿它与比如说超音速航空运输这一替代方案相比，嗯，要想让飞机飞得非常快，你必须爬升到相当相当高的高度，因为当你高速飞行时，大气看起来简直像糖蜜，呃，所以对于肯定低于500英里的距离，你把所有时间都花在上升和下降上，根本没有机会花时间进行巡航，呃，所以类似超级高铁的东西可以在这个领域竞争得非常好，因为，呃，你会立即，或者几乎立即，进入一个低压环境，因此管道内维持着一个低低压环境，那就像，你知道，嗯，巡航高度的，好吧，它是，它是

基本上就像非常高海拔处的大气，呃，而且而且你不必花任何时间上升，呃，或者下降，嗯，所以所以对于500英里以下的距离，飞机不可能，好吧，要比超级高铁更快会极其困难，呃，因为那个上升下降的问题，嗯，然而，一旦距离变长，管道的成本就会开始成为一个重要因素，而且而且，呃，因此我会说，正确的做法可能是改用超音速运输，因为那样你有很大一部分时间是在巡航，而且而且你你用超音速飞机可能会更快到达，有意思，所以超级高铁里没有袋鼠，嗯，我知道你的日程安排非常疯狂，我知道你必须从这里出发

今晚回你的办公室。是的，很抱歉我没有处于最佳状态，这一直是，我昨晚大部分时间都在工作，所以，嗯，我们非常感激你能来，你抽出了一些时间给我们，非常感谢你，非常感谢你为[音乐]on

[Music] thank you for doing this I know today was a busy day at the office yeah I guess every day is a busy day at the office when you're running to big companies some are more intense than others this is on the more intense side um let's let's talk about Tesla and if one were to believe everything one reads in the Press which I don't as a former journalist the recent fires in the Tesla cars sound like the Hindenberg disaster in 1937 right the humanity um reality is somewhat different tell us tell us what really happened there uh yeah um so I mean I think first of all that it's fair for uh a new technology to uh receive more scrutiny than than than older Technologies because it should be held to a higher standard but there's some reasonable limit to to

what that uh increased standard should be and I mean since since the model S went into production about a year and a half ago there've been about a quarter million gasoline carf fires in the us um about 400 deaths 1,200 serious injuries um our Three Fires which caused no injury um received more headline news than the other quarter million combined that seems like an unreasonable ratio and I believe all three owners of those cars who crashed wanted to get another one yes right exactly it's like don't take my word for it like they they that that was like I said well how how soon can they get a loaner car until the insurance thing gets figured out and you so it was we gave him one right away but um yeah I mean that's the asset test like do does the guy that

was that experienced the fire does he want to have that same car again you feel safe in um stock price down again today 10% do you care about that I mean it's it kind of sucks running a public company um yeah yeah I mean the stock goes through these huge gations um and uh yeah for for like seemingly arbitrary reasons uh and then I'm asked to explain why it changed I'm like I have no idea which should be pointed out it's up 300% on the year yeah right I mean on balance that's still still good um but I mean when the stock price is way higher and people ask me what I think think of valuation I said well I think it's probably more than we have a right to deserve we'll try to get there in the long term and I think we will and probably exceed it but uh I would

not try to justify that a company with a little over $2 billion Revenue should be worth $22 billion in market cap that does seem pretty high to me you know it's so yeah and it's fair to say you wouldn't be there without government subsidy well I think it would have taken longer so the Ian there's a slight misperception about the history of Tesla which is that that the the government funding was pivotal it was an accelerant but it was not pivotal the the really pivotal thing uh point was an investment from Daimler in 2009 early 2009 when there was I I I basically spent all the money I had and we had one company that was willing to in invest or one entity that was willing to invest period and that was dla and if they hadn't come in with that investment

we would definitely be dead um fortunately bankrupt finished yeah gone um and uh fortunately they they did and we've done a number of vehicle programs that Dio there the uh Mercedes bclass which is uh not currently produced in the US but it's very popular in Europe and other parts of the world will be coming to the US and that'll have a Tesla battery pack and power train it'll be the largest electric vehicle program in down the history uh so that uh you know so got a great relationship they they've been a great great supporter um how about self-drive version of Tesla um I do think that's an important technology although uh the the difficulty increases exponentially to get to fully self-driving um to cover all the corner cases um so I think we can get

to maybe 90% of miles driven being autopilot as we call it because using the sort of aircraft analogy um I think we'll get there pretty soon maybe in a few years but uh then covering that last 10% is really difficult and and so getting from 90% to 99 then to 99.

9 and then I mean ultimately to be truly self-driving like you can fall asleep and the car arrives at your destination uh which would be really great some people do already by the way yeah exactly um they die yeah um that that that's that just it just I think you probably need like 69 Z liability um like the standard would be actually way higher than a than the safety of of a person probably by a factor of 10 or 100 you in order for people to be comfortable uh or otherwise well like this fire thing you know just like a car is basically the safest car you could possibly drive if you care about fires um and and that that's not the impression one would have reading the headlines you would have sort of the opposite impression and so for self self-driving

or autopilot um yeah hopefully the media doesn't do do the same thing same like Mega disproportionate response but uh but I do think that it should be held to a standard that's maybe like 10 times better than a person and I know Google is working on this too 10 years more or less yeah um I I mean I think that the the right path is probably a little different from what Google is pursuing um and uh Larry Page is a all friend of mine I've known him this before he got Venture funing for Google um and I think he's a really brilliant guy but uh I mean it's it's not Google is isn't focusing on on on autonomous cars whereas it it's going to be a pretty significant Focus for Tesla and from our standpoint it it only matters if the autopilot capability is does not

result in in a substantial cost increase to the car and the the way the Google sensor Suite is set up it's like it like 60 Grand you know I mean that's like a lot I want to ask you about risk-taking um because there's a theory that entrepreneurs who hit it out of the park one time make that Billion Dollar Plus company work right they reluctant to do it again not because they're afraid of losing their money but because they feel if they were to to fail a second time round then in their own minds maybe they would think well the first time it was just luck it wasn't really my own skill or my own sense of how to run a business but not only did you well you Rose PayPal came up to 1.

5 billion you got out of that not only did you invest again you invest again twice not only that but you chose probably two of the most risky Capital intensive Industries to go with rocket technology which is basically a bomb right directed up yeah and then cars which are you know we know what's happening Detroit yeah um so what is it that that motivates there to do that to go through The Crucible again two times again yeah I'm not sure it was the right decision but um so far so good yeah um it's it's it's much less fun than it than it may appear uh but um I mean the case of what I thought of I would do was start and run SpaceX then and then create a electric car company with with a few other people work just but just like apply 20% of my time and work

on the product design um because I'm like my main thing is is engineering and design so um that yeah that was um an illusion uh so uh yeah and um and then I I don't really have any choice but just to to apply a ton of time to Tesla or the company would be you know definitely dead so um but the other way to do it you could have stayed in Silicon Valley started another few internet companies made oh yeah billion dollars and then you could have bought krysler and probably bought NASA too and you wouldn't have to start from scratch that seems too easy yeah um all right we'll move on I don't I don't really want to it's not point is not to sort of own a car company it but rather to accelerate the Advent of sustainable transport and um it seemed like it would

be difficult let's talk about SpaceX SpaceX you have said you started with the specific intention of getting to Mars uh yeah it well the Argin of SpaceX uh was was actually not or it my interest in Spa my inial thought in space was that uh it wasn't possible to create a company um and I mistakenly thought that uh the reason that we had not sent people to Ms was because we' lost the will to explore or something or like May that and I thought well maybe that needs to be reignited and so came with this idea to do a basically a philanthropic mission to M with with a 100% probability of losing all the money um in order to reignite interest in that goal um but after after a while I realized that's that was actually that was a mistake I mean United States is

is a nation of explorers you know came here from other parts of the world um I think more than any other country is a distillation of the human Spirit of exploration there there's no lack of will the but people need to believe that there's a way uh that that a way that's feasible and and that it's not going to bankrupt the country and their living standard will be won't be materially affected you know if and then I think they're super super keen on on that that goal now as you look out whatever we're talking 10 15 20 years to get to Mars it's not just rocket technology and and you've talked about reusable rocket technology it's also how you Shield people from radiation it's a 10 12 month trip what you do when they arrive you know how are they going to

live there are you is that something that you want to work on too or will you partner with other companies how do you how do you see that playing out over the next decade well I actually think the the the technology required to live on M is not not particularly difficult um but but but getting there is is really difficult uh uh I mean it's like hundreds of millions of miles um to get to Death Valley yeah exactly to get to a place that kind of looks like Arizona you know uh like a cold version of Arizona with not quite as much water um so um I mean at least that that's that's my best my my guess is I I think if we can if we can get there the technology required to live there will is is not a not a not a really big challenge I mean U Mars has some advantages

it's got a it's it's quite sort of earthlike in in some ways it's got a rotational period of 24 and 1 half hours by far the closest of any other planet um the atmosphere is carbon dioxide uh now it's it's not it's at a low pressure but if you were to have a transparent Dome uh you you all you'd need is a is a pump uh and some and some fertilizer and you could grow plants on Ms the plants would convert the CO2 to oxygen um the other thing that's been big in the news recently is the hyperloop um which you have sketched out you estimate from LA to San Francisco in 35 minutes yeah you could push that a little bit but well I'd be happy if I could get from Santa Monica to downtown I know I know you have your personal issues with the 405 the 405 is like this

is like the most brutal construction project I've ever personally witnessed I mean it's like mindboggling um but I I also know that so you sketch this out but I know that your your your plans for the hyperloop have been put into some pretty sophisticated simulation technology yeah and it looks like it actually might work am I right yeah um and and we did run simulations at SpaceX and Tesla uh so you know we you know we thought it would work but I mean I actually don't think it's particularly like I mean I I think I think it's like the the engineering of it that that it would work is is actually pretty pretty obvious honestly but I mean it's so I think the larger issues are political you know getting the political support to do something like that and

uh and then uh you know making sure the economics pan out um and uh yeah I hope someone does it because I think it would be cool I mean it' be great to to have something like that it's just like it doesn't seem like our mass transportation is getting better it seems to be kind of getting worse so that's that's not a good future you said something you hope somebody else would do it I'm curious what makes you really so unique is not only your ability to dream big but to execute there are lots of utopian thinkers out there but they cannot execute um but there are some other people who can do good things and I'm wondering what seems to motivate you you see things that frustrate you or you think are are not as good as you like and then you try and fix them

you've worked on on solar power you've worked on electric cars and and on interplanetary space travel um I'm wondering what are the things about America and about the world for that matter would you like to see fixed either by a company you might do yourself or by some of a smart entrepreneur what what what else out there is feasible you know we all want to get rid of world poverty and and get rid of childhood diseases but but what what problems out there can feasibly be fix say in our lifetimes well I mean I think first of all um the world's actually pretty great right now uh I mean arguably better than any point in history um and this this is sometimes uh lost if you read the newspapers they're they're like a a ification of all the world's problemes

like I mean newspapers seem to be attempting to answer the question what was the worst thing that happened on Earth today yeah and it's right if it bleeds it leads yeah and and it's like okay I mean and I think there's there is kind of a evolutionary reason for that because it makes more sense to like you want to prioritize danger over reward or or or because it's you if you get eaten by the lion it's game over but you know if you if you forget where you left some snack that's that's okay I mean you you know so so there's a it's it's it's not quite the same in terms of the risk reward balance but we didn't evolve with newspapers uh and and and Global media so like our brains sort of having a fear response to a lot a bunch of dangers that are extremely

unlikely to ever affect us on but yeah just yeah you have uh I believe about 3,000 people at Tesla we have six 6,000 yeah 6,000 I'm my I'm well informed and SpaceX is uh is 3500 so that's a massive a glomeration of engineering Talent huge yeah if if if if I could take the metaphor of a ship how much time do you have to go down into the engine room roll up your sleeves get your hands dirty and fix stuff as an engineer and how much time do you spend on the bridge steering and looking at the at the distant Horizon well not a lot on that last Point uh I mean it's uh I mean there there's a constant flurry of executional challenges um and so I try to triage my time according to what would be best for the companies uh and and still you know have some time to

see my kids you know because I want to miss them growing up so you know it can vary from big issues to things that seem small but actually could have a really big impact um so I mean it's it's all the way from design Aesthetics to uh the details of of say the vehicle functionality or in the case of the rocket uh the you know the avionics propulsion system and uh airframe I mean the rocket is kind of a has has more more of a concentrated pucker Factor um because of you got it's you got these launches and and um least of the car you can do a recoil or like do a software update that's not going to happen with the rocket so it's like passing grade is 100% uh which is induces anxiety you know how do you handle launch anxiety when you're actually waiting the

countdown we we saw one here well the the these ones actually I mean they're this this I have quite a lot of anxiety uh because always think oh there must be something that we did wrong and is there anything I could have done to prevent this hypothetical thing from from Bad Thing from occurring um I mean the last um roughly 10 launchers have have have worked uh but the but the the three launchers we started off with did not so the the by far the worst uh emotional stress was the the fourth launch of Falcon 1 because the first three launchers did not make it to orbit they got they got to sort of space on launches two and three but they didn't get to full overal velocity and uh and I I when I started out I figured I would have enough money for three three

launches oops Yeah oops so I was it was we squeaked by on the fourth fourth one um we sent out a link today I don't know if how many of you saw it but it's of you using a your hands uh as 3D molding sort of tools for stuff you're doing on a computer screen and it's a rocket engine that you're able to manipulate with your hands um and I know that you have told John favro who produced or directed Iron Man that that was the inspiration because we see Tony Stark doing this the movie absolutely um and I know also you know I've read a bit Isaac azimoff's Foundation series you've also said it's been inspiration so I'm wondering fan of azimov actually when when you're on The Cutting Edge of technology today in the fields that you're in do you feel you've almost

got one foot in science fiction is that is do you do you have to be that far ahead well well you have to um imagine and outcome in order to head in that direction um and science fiction explores a lot of different ideas so um it can be you know helpful as a source of inspiration um and and you know like books TV shows movies I they're all uh I think sources of inspiration um I mean most of the movies and TV shows that space are totally wrong uh but uh but they have interesting ideas like the Star Trek Communicator um was uh an inspiration for the cell phone yeah with the flip right right yeah exactly um I'm GNA in fact the weird thing is like like the like the phones we have in our pocket vastly exceed what was on stock Trek we're going to go to ask some

of our students um some questions but first one more um I saw I'm a big James Bond fan he just bought the Lotus s spre that they used in um the spy who love me which goes underwater yeah and you're going to make that work so it's it's definitely a backround of project okay but my question is when do we get to see a functioning version of the Millennium Falcon that's a tricky one because it's it's not actually the right shape um uh oh it's I mean not to George Lucas yeah I mean the Falcon 9 our Falcon roer was uh named after the Millennium Falcon even though it looks nothing like it um and uh yeah I mean yeah you that's not the shape you'd want for Miss B ship really okay so if we can swing the camera to our student tables we get a couple of questions

from there and then I'll go to the written questions from the rest of the audience so here we go good evening sir my name's Ariel Haus I'm from vonck century referring to Merlin 9 does basx have a working prototype and when will it be ready to launch uh well Merin is the the name of our our engine um so and falcon9 is the name of the rocket um and we uh we've done um several launches of of falcon9 um and an important Milestone happened a few months ago which was the the launch of the next generation Falcon line which is designed to be able to return uh and land at the Launchpad um and um came we came close on the initial Mission but not didn't quite get there uh we need to make a few few corrections but I think we we've got a good chance of getting there

next year okay let's go for another one there hi I'm Kennedy Green from Harvard weslake so I've seen you speak at a TED Talk and I remember you spoke pretty emphatically about the success of your Innovations and how you kind of take a physics approach where you take the idea and boil it down to its Basics and from there start to build up so can you talk about an example where you use that process um well I think you know an important thing in in uh Innovation or trying to create new things is is is to try really hard to to do that um which may sound incredibly obvious but uh that's what I find is is most often what people don't do they actually didn't didn't try super hard to come up with something new um and and it is helpful to have cross-pollination

of Industries um I mean it's been quite difficult to run SpaceX and Tesla but there has been good ideas you know if since I got both in my mind space this this good ideaas is going back and forth the um for example on the car with respect to the car the model S is the only all aluminum body en Chanty car made in North America and very few cars are are all aluminum in the airspace industry it's that that's the default um so it seemed like like obviously the right move in order to minimize the the non battery packed mass of the car so in order in order to offset you know a fairly heavy battery pack we had to make the rest of the car light but but still achieve uh a festar safety rating um I don't think it would have been possible to do that if we had used

steel which is the traditional method um and and what's helped SpaceX has been that the car industry is really good at making complicated objects at a low cost I mean it's actually quite incredible that like one can buy a decent car for $20,000 I mean all the stuff that's in that car is I mean it's nutty how much stuff is in a car um so uh that at SpaceX uh I hired a bunch of people from the order industry to uh run manufacturing which has worked out reasonably well let's take two more student questions please and then we'll come to the other written ones hello um I'm Natalie Watson from marbor school and we have a sort of two-part question that builds so um why do you think Tesla succeeded whereas other companies um car companies have failed in their

methods um of electric cars and is the location in Silicon Valley an important part of this yeah I think I think being in Silicon Valley is is pretty important uh because what's really Critical with electric cars is electrical engineering software and electronics uh and Silicon Valley has the best concentration of talent in those areas in the world um and yeah sorry what was the first father the question why did you succeed oh why do we succeed oh yeah right suc I'm sorry what was your question oh the first part okay um why do you think Tesla succeeded whereas other car companies failed in their methods of electric of electric cars like why do you think Tesla is the leader in this idea well um there haven't been that many car company startups uh Ian there

was sort of Fisker uh and Kota um and and then a few smaller ones um and and then the rest has sort of been some some fairly small scale efforts by the big companies um uh I I I I think if if we say what was the difference between say Fisker and Tesla that's maybe the bit most direct comparison uh Tesla is a hardcore engineering company and visker is kind of a was based on kind of on styling you know it's like styling is good important but it's that's not the reason we don't have electric cars so it's not you know but for styling we we would have electric cars that's not the reason um so in the case of fisa they made a car that uh a lot of people think looked really good but didn't work properly so then people don't want to buy the car um that's like

a pretty reasonable thing I think um and yeah um yeah I mean if you think like like what what what's the point of a company existing the the point is that it's it's a group of people that have gathered together to create a product if the product is good the company should exist and if it is not good the company should not exist um that seems like fundamental to the nature of companies so the I mean clearly then one should focus on making the absolute best product you can otherwise you reduce the probability of success but a lot of companies focus on things that aren't really to do with the product um as though a company has any basis for existing apart from doing useful things that's kind of strange take one more student question please uh good evening

sir my name is Eric pelo from uh Von Next Century and regarding the Mars uh the proposed Mars Expedition um what how exactly do you plan on making it coste efficient sure um well now that is that is indeed a tricky problem um I mean I feel reasonably possible that um that success is at least one of the possible outcomes um like this is a I mean this is pretty important when you're trying to do something it's like well can can that be one of the outcomes I wasn't actually confident about that until a few years ago um now I'm not saying we will get there but I I I I I'm confident that it is at least possible um and the key to that is having a fully reusable MOS transportation system so that all you're all you are placing between flights maybe apart from

minor maintenance is the propellant um I mean this is this like reusability is so fundamental to uh to having a a a a a a major change in space flight it's would be difficult to overstate its importance um but I mean with analogy to other modes of Transport you can imag imagine that if airplanes could only be used once um they would very few people would fly um because it would be super crazy expensive um you know guess like a 747 costs a quarter billion dollars You' need two of them just for a round trip but people are not paying half a billion dollars to fly back and forth to London um and that's because you can use 747 like 20,000 times um and for a rocket you a falcon9 rocket costs about $60 million to build and so if you can be used once obviously

that's a $60 million Capital cost but if you can be used a thousand times then it's only a $60,000 Capital cost um and I mean that is you it's it is it is the fundamental difference so you have to have fully useable then you have to make sure that the propellant used is as low cost as possible so our next Generation Rockets will be using methane as a fuel which methane is the is the lowest cost Source fuel on the planet um by by a good margin so uh and so I think if if if your propellent cost is low and the system is fully reusable then I think it I think it should be possible to to move to Mars for less than half a million dollars which I think is is an important threshold because if people can sell all this stuff on Earth and move to Mars well uh and

there's enough people who who can do that um combined with those who actually want to do that uh then that then that that's that's the the fundamental thing needed to uh have a a growing Colony on Mars I mean kind of like the way that the US was like the early English colonies of America um you when it became affordable for people to sell all their stuff in England and um move to America it grew really fast um in the absence of that it's it would just require humongous amounts of government support and and I think probably wouldn't be wouldn't result in a self-sustaining civilization so the economics of it are extremely fundamental no thanks yeah okay um I'm going to go through some questions that we got from the floor um and the first one I want to ask

is um what is what do you think is the next Battery Technology after lithium ion I guess lithium ion has sort of reached its ceiling more or less or no no I think there's I think there are substantial improvements uh that will occur with lithiumion batteries um without any no Miracles required um the the thing uh with lithion technology in terms of the costant energy density uh is that the the sort of average Improvement per year is about 8% which isn't that noticeable on a one-ear basis but but your compound interest is a very powerful force uh and so after say four or five years the cost is cut in half assuming there's a forcing function for a strong forcing function for improvement which I think electric cars provide so you know I feel pretty good

about achieving um a substantial reduction of the cost of the battery pack uh say in in kind of the the three or four year time Horizon it's still way behind M's law for micro dou nothing nothing I mean M the only thing that uh operates at M's LW speed is M's law um you know semiconductors just had this incredible advantage that as you made them tinier they got way more efficient um for something with like that's that's a large like a macro structure like a battery pack you just don't have or really almost anything essentially I say in fact anything except microprocessors and memory um that that does does not improve at that pace um yeah um another question here um it's about medical technology is there a medical application or technology that you you

would like to change or see somebody else change work on Well Medical Technology um well I think the thing that would s most profoundly affect people uh would be uh to to be able to recode genetics which is obviously a dodgy situation um uh but that that's the thing like we're we're close to saturation on on lifespan I mean it's sort of pretty much leveled out um and uh and so even if you solve say any one particular disease you maybe slightly improve life expectancy but but not a lot um you know it's just like you you kind of have a genetic programming any given species for a certain lifespan like the like you cannot make a fruit fly live for 10 years no matter what you do I mean no amount of Healthy Living vitamins or anything um it's just like you

know can so while fruit flies live for 20 years that would be that would be a a truly astounding achievement um but yeah so I mean it's a really tricky subject uh you know it's Frau with with all sorts of moral issues but um that's the thing that would most affect people's lives but it's I mean it certainly is double-edged sword so here's another question um from a Tesla owner why is there no coat hook in the back yeah he says he or she says you can design a rocket but you forgot the coat hooks well I didn't actually forget it I just I intentionally didn't like it so I didn't put it there um like the Aesthetics of it really bothered me but um I know you know obviously some people disagree with that decision um but I think I think we might have um a retroactive

fix for that if somebody has the panoramic roof uh which is to to basically have hook on the the bow section in the middle of the roof um and then the then the your code could hang down in the second row passenger footwall which is actually slightly better than having a coat hook uh that's stuck on the side of the car um so I think we'll probably do that um yeah wherever that question came from hold on this not the first time I've heard that question I'm sure I'm sure is there a future in hydrogen fueled engines uh yeah actually I'll mention one little anecdote which is oh yeah uh in in in the beginning of mod production I also didn't have um reading lights in the second row uh CU like well people I thought people were really going towards uh your ebooks

um the Kindle and iPad and that kind of thing it's like so they have like their own light they don't need like an actual light in the back um uh and uh then I was driving with one of my kids and he and he was trying to read his book Daddy yeah I he he said uh this is a stest car in the world like all right we'll put the light back in um hydrogen fuel engines they have a future I I you know I don't think so uh hydrogen is a very difficult uh energy storage mechanism I mean essentially it's a means of storing energy chemically uh but there are way better if you want to do that there are way better materials than than hydrogen like I go with methane or propane way before hydrogen um in fact the way that they make the hydrogen is by taking methane and and

chopping the the carbon atom off so of like well that seems like a waste um or they'll do electrolysis which is even worse uh so so it's a really energy intensive it's either like either taking either still mining hydrocarbons on a large scale or um you're you're applying massive amounts of electricity to separate uh H2O um and then some will say oh well hydrogen is the most common element in the universe yes but not on Earth which is important consideration um you know it's it's yeah it's one of those things that sort of always sounds like it's like it's one of those things like it's the future and it always will be like and then there's the Hindenburg issue yeah I mean in in the case of Hindenberg my understanding is that that the main issue was the

the paint on the outer surface uh as opposed to the hydrogen itself but but hydrogen does combust extremely well um like it hyren has a has a there's a good AR argument for hydrogen is a fuel in the upper stage of a rocket um say curn 5 in the second and third stages had hydrogen um and particularly for the upstage of a rocket where you're not volumetrically constrained um uh or or rather you you're Mass constrained rather than volumetrically constrained uh hydrogen is good if you care about mass and terrible if you care about volume uh and and it's also harble from uh a handling standpoint because it's a really tiny molecule and it goes all over the place um you look at Apple after Steve Jobs and Microsoft after Bill Gates struggle to keep up the momentum

I wonder have you thought about the future of your companies Tesla and SpaceX um I know you've you've talked about giving away a lot of your money um but then I know you've had some other thoughts about that and you looked at Ford and wondered if you want to give I mean what's where where you at on that succession issue now well I I I don't know if like I'm not sure about the whole sort of family dasty from a wealth standpoint thing I mean that seems to work you know often work out worse than if if if if the kid wasn't given a huge sum of money um I mean unless unless they've actually demonstrated a high ability to be a good Steward of capital then um it you know it's not not going to work out I think to give them a huge sum of money um now that said

I mean that I'm wavering a little bit on that cuz if you look at the example of Ford and GM like GM went bankrupt Ford did not Ford had the Ford family as a stabilizing influence so there could be some Merit to to having a family stabilizing influence but but maybe not necessarily complete control um we're going to end with two questions on the hyperloop which is clearly aroused a lot of emotion in Los Angeles and one is from UCLA Anderson I know that Gene block is here who runs UCLA um but they want to know how do you envision the hyperloop as an open-source project to be run in traditional Enterprise fashion which would make profits does that make sense uh yeah I guess it the I mean I think it's going be quite difficult for for someone to execute uh

the hyperloop and the thing that will really matter is how good is that company at executing as opposed to the basic sort of ideas of of the system um so I wouldn't I don't think a company has to worry too much about um creating value if they're really good at execution um and uh I like probably the best example of Open Source is Linux um and there's lots of companies that that um quite valuable even though Linux is open source and the followup to that is from somebody else who wants to know when will the hyper hyperloop potentially be ready and can we get to Australia that would be I would not recommend it uh for for going to Australia because Australia is really far um so like where where something like the hyp loop would work best is for distances

that are maybe five about 500 miles but probably not more than a thousand um and that's because if um if you compare to say an alternative being supersonic Air transport um in order to go really fast on the plane you have to climb pretty pretty high because the atmosphere just looks like molasses when you're going fast uh so you for distances certainly under 500 miles you spend all your time just ascending and descending and you don't really get an opportunity to spend time at Cruise uh so something like a hyperloop can complete really well in that Arena because uh you you instantly or very almost instantly enter a low pressure environment and so the tube contains a low low pressure environment that's you know like the cruising altitude of well it's it's

like very high altitude atmosphere basically uh and and so you don't have to spend any time ascending uh or descending um so so there's no way for it would be well extremely difficult for for for a plane to uh be faster than hyp Loop for distances under 500 Miles um because of that sent descent thing um however once you get to long distances then the cost of the tube starts to become a big factor and and uh and so then I'd say it's probably the right mve is to go to Super Sonic transport because then you're spending a a large percentage of your time at Cruise and and you you could probably get there faster with a super sonic aircraft interesting so no kangaroos in the hyber loop um I know you have an insane schedule I know that you have to go from here

back to your office tonight yeah I apologize for not being at my best this is has been I was like working most last night so um we are deeply grateful you came you gave us some time thank you so much thank you so much for [Music] on