呃，所以我非常荣幸能，呃，介绍一位无需介绍的人物，我不确定他在哪里，但我相信他会从这里的某个地方进来，他在哪儿，哦，好吧，你来了，嗯，呃，一位我们可以称为埃隆的先生，而且至少在这个国家，每个人，我都确切知道你说的是谁，呃，不过埃隆·马斯克先生，他是，呃，SpaceX的首席执行官兼首席设计师，呃，我想每个人都知道这一点，嗯，SpaceX是一家了不起的，嗯，呃，商业公司，它是第一家把，呃，商业火箭发射到近地轨道的公司，呃，通过他们的Falcon 1发射，呃，然后在2008年，他们是赢得一份合同的公司之一，负责，呃，为国际空间站提供服务，他们是第一家与国际空间站诞生、运送补给物资的商业公司

他们也是第一家把一艘相当大的返回飞行器，呃，连同所有仍然完好无损的部件一起返回的商业公司，这对我们非常重要，呃，返回到，呃，到地球表面，所以这是一家了不起的公司，做得非常出色，嗯，而且继续突破边界，你，你们会听埃隆讲，但他的兴趣其实与其说是在近地轨道，不如说是在超越近地轨道，并，并确保人类将通过探索地球之外、之外的地方而继续生存，嗯，埃隆参与过各种各样的，呃，事情，这曾是，这是让今天能与他进行这场对话如此令人兴奋的事情之一，你，他不是一个单一维度的太空人，他参与了Tesla汽车，他是其联合创始人

兼首席执行官，呃，而且还是设计工作以及他们选择制造什么、以及，以及如何制造方面的一位关键人物，嗯，当然，他曾是PayPal和zip 2的联合创始人，呃，他也深度参与了，呃，许多其他行业，所以我非常荣幸地欢迎埃隆·马斯克登台，感谢你的到来，非常感谢，好吧，这些椅子真棒，你们看看你们坐的那些椅子，嗯，让我想想，所以埃隆，你已经，呃，你和我今天早上要稍微聊一聊，我们说这会是一场炉边谈话，所以我想减去炉边，我们已经准备好了，嗯，再说一次，正如你听到的，我鼓励大家在过程中提几个问题，但我有几个，呃，几个问题，我想用来让我们开始，所以第1个问题，可能也是每个人

心里想的，是也许你愿意稍微谈谈最近在SpaceX 7这里损失Dragon和Falcon 9的事情，当然，好吧，我是说，我认为这显然，这是对SpaceX的一次巨大，嗯，打击，而且，嗯，或者说我们极其严肃地对待这些任务，嗯，在SpaceX所有能够参与调查的人都，嗯，非常非常专注于此，而且，嗯，在这个案例中，这些，这些数据看起来确实相当，嗯，难以解读，不管发生了什么，显然都不，不是某种简单直接的事情，嗯，所以我们希望花尽可能多的时间来审查数据，显然也要与，与NASA、与fa以及与，嗯，其他一些客户一起审查，并且就是看看，嗯，根据大家此前的

经验，嗯，看看我们能否查明，呃，最可能的根本原因是什么，嗯，既要看，看我们认为最可能发生了什么，嗯，也要看任何难以判断的情况，并尝试解决所有这些问题，最大限度提高未来任务成功的概率，对于你认为问题出在哪里，有什么线索吗，你，好吧，我知道这，这里有媒体和观众，所以他们，是的，所以你必须小心，你说得对，我从来没有真正学会过这一点，但显然这是现在正在努力吸取的一个教训，所以，所以这，是的，我是说，我，嗯，你知道，这个，我，我认为，我认为，我认为到本周末时，我们将能够说一些，嗯，更确定的东西，嗯，目前真正唯一清楚的事情是，在

上面级液氧箱中发生了某种超压事件，嗯，但确切原因和事件顺序，仍然，仍然没有一个，呃，能与所有数据吻合的明确，呃，理论，嗯，所以我们必须确定其中一些数据是否是，呃，某种测量误差，或者是否，呃，确实存在一个能够匹配这种，这种看起来相互冲突的数据点的理论，好的，非常好，我，我只想评论一句，你经常发布的推文，呃，尤其是在发生这类事件时，呃，对每个人都非常有用，我们真的非常感激，你，你会惊讶于有多少人引用你说过的话，以及，以及，以及他们有多么高兴你直接站出来，至少给出一些关于发生了什么的迹象，并且让人知道我们会挺过去，事情正

进展顺利，所以我们对此表示感谢，当然，肯定，嗯，一旦我们，我们认为已经清楚掌握了，了发生了什么，而且我们已经与尽可能多的专家进行了某种交叉核对，嗯，我们当然非常非常感谢，感谢NASA在这方面提供的反馈，十分感激，嗯，我们肯定会相当，把那个情况公布出来，我对现在就说些什么唯一的迟疑，是我不想说出某件后来证明是对情况的误，嗯，误解的话，哦，是的，完全理解，所以，嗯，我经常问自己的一个问题是，嗯，政府的所有这些帮助到了什么程度会造成伤害，嗯，所以这次事件发生了，而我们有，呃，你们有NASA的人，呃，在那里，呃，来自大约3个不同的

打算使用你们服务的项目，ISS是其中之一，你们还有FAA，呃，它也参与其中，嗯，靶场，呃，人员也在那里，嗯，在不让人觉得你是在为难客户的情况下，这种互动怎么样，以及，呃，我们应当考虑以哪些不同方式行事，这样在那些我们能提供帮助的领域，我们能够有所帮助，而在那些我们确实妨碍你们完成工作的领域，我们，我们可以调整自己，是的，实际上我认为迄今为止与NASA的互动一直很好，嗯，最大，最大的挑战是，同时有，嗯，大量询问涌入，所以，呃，要做到，你知道，马上回复、回复每个人有些困难，但，但实际上情况似乎进行得相当顺利，这

在某种短期内，最，最需要的事情是能够以某种方式收集所有数据，嗯，创建、创建一条非常精确的时间线，这样你知道，按，按毫秒，我们知道每个传感器当时的读数，嗯，而且我们可以，嗯，把它与地面视频关联起来。实际上，比如最大的挑战之一，是把这些，这些东西与确切时间对应起来，你知道，因为当你谈论的是，你知道，毫秒级的问题时，嗯，你知道，要能够弄清地面跟踪视频与，嗯，你知道，由，由站点从火箭接收到的数据如何对应，然后还要考虑生成一个信息包实际花费的确切时间，嗯，那个传感器是什么时候被读取的，它是什么时候被编码进一个数据包的，以及什么时候

那个数据包是什么时候发送到地面的，嗯，当你处理的是毫秒级的问题时，所有那些东西实际上都会造成相当大的差异。是的，当然。嗯，所以，我们到目前为止投入的最大一项工作，就是整理出一份极其详细的时间线，嗯，然后确保他们尽可能精确地掌握事件发生的顺序。这就是我们一直在做的工作。嗯，不过实际上，当然，就我们与 NASA 以及与我们之间的互动而言，到目前为止其实相当不错。嗯，我们已经解释了这就是我们正在做的事情，嗯，然后我们非常欢迎任何能够让我们更好地了解当时情况的反馈、意见或数据审查。

我觉得，之前我们发生 1 号发动机异常时，我们进行了一次非常富有成效的讨论，所以我发现那非常有用。不过那是从 NASA 的角度来看，所以了解你的看法总是很有意思。是的，实际上目前看来相当、相当不错。是的，所以，嗯，你们正在建造……嗯，在最近几次发射中，你们安装了着陆腿，而且一直在研究让第一级返回着陆，嗯，最终着陆到岸上。你能谈谈这方面，以及你对此的愿景，还有 SpaceX 总体上未来的发展吗？当然。嗯，SpaceX 总体上的目标，是设法推进太空运输的水平，嗯，推进太空运输技术，达到这样一个程度，嗯，就是尽可能沿着这条道路走得更远，

走向这样一个未来：希望太空旅行在未来某个时候能够变得司空见惯，而且我们能够把大量人员和货物送往其他行星。你知道，这就是人类要在太空拥有美好未来所必须发生的那类事情。所以我们想继续推动这件事，而我认为，通往那个未来的关键在于可重复使用性。嗯，所以我们一直非常努力地研究可重复使用性。不幸的是，我们还没有成功，而事实上，颇具讽刺意味的是，上一次发射，呃，我们其实最有希望让飞行器降落到这艘在大西洋中保持位置的某种无人船上。嗯，所以我们实际上已经准备得相当充分，希望这会是一次真的非常棒的

发射，但不幸的是，结果却完全相反，偏偏还是在我生日那天。嗯，真让人沮丧。你肯定会记住这件事。绝对是低谷。嗯，但是，但是，我确实认为，在我们未来的发射中，我们有相当大的机会降落在船上，然后把 Boost AG 带回陆地。嗯，接下来的挑战当然是设法弄清楚如何高效、有效地重复使用它。嗯，理论上，它的设计便于重复使用，但我们得看看这一级完整返回时是什么样子。嗯哼。嗯，过去几年里，我们已经能够进行多次垂直起飞和着陆测试，嗯，所使用的硬件基本上采用飞行构型，所以我们知道我们能够应对这个、这个、这个

末端阶段；如果，嗯，你知道，如果一切顺利，我们可以从陆地起飞，没问题。所以现在只是需要完成所有这些部分，嗯，希望今年晚些时候我们能够做到。但那、那是关键。不过，当然，这并没有解决上面级的重复使用问题，但它解决了助推阶段的重复使用问题，而这大约占成本的 70% 到 80%。嗯，而且，嗯，但我认为这将是朝着降低太空运输成本迈出的一大步。所以，你知道，如果回顾你的经历，呃，我想是 Zip2、Payal，这些大体上都是软件类的工作。现在你有 Tesla 电动汽车，呃，你正在建造一座电池工厂，嗯，还有 Solar City，我想你也参与了 Solar City。那么为什么是太空？这对我而言似乎……太空，还有我所评定的……

对你而言，这似乎比其他事情或我们的业务更像是一种激情，但我，我，我说不清为什么是太空，为什么你——为什么你认为确保我们能快速进入L轨道很重要？嗯，呃，我的意思是，其实严格来说，我是说，Tesla和Solar City都是为了帮助解决可持续能源问题，嗯，呃，所以我们正努力通过这些公司在那方面取得进展，嗯，至于SpaceX，它是，呃，试图帮助，嗯，解决那种太空承载问题，嗯，我的意思是，我，我认为，一个我们成为太空之春文明，嗯，并成为多行星物种的未来，是一个非常令人兴奋、鼓舞人心、了不起的未来，嗯，而要实现这一点，嗯，我们必须，嗯，大幅降低太空飞行的成本，嗯

而，呃，而这就是，这就是SpaceX存在的原因，是要努力，努力降低太空飞行的成本，呃，我们在这方面已经取得了一些进展，但我仍然会把迄今为止的改进，嗯，称为渐进式的，而不是革命性的，嗯，而，嗯，但通过大量持续的工作，我是说，我认为有可能实现，嗯，数量级或更大幅度的改进，而可重复使用当然是这一切的关键，嗯，而，呃，是的，然后希望，你知道，我们想要——如果，如果我们能继续降低太空飞行的成本，嗯，那么最终，如果这种趋势方向正确，它可能会，呃，通向火星上的一座城市，而在此过程中当然也会在洛思轨道、嗯、月球以及，你知道，许多其他令人兴奋的地方开展大量活动，所以其中一件事

我们正尝试通过国际空间站做的，是，嗯，设法弄清楚哪些行业会因利用近地轨道而繁荣，设法理解，或者，或者帮助发展伊昂一个经济，本质上就是近地轨道经济，嗯，而如今做这些事的人都在承担风险，嗯，我们的工作是设法在近期，嗯，尽可能降低风险，嗯，这样他们就能获得真正为未来建立商业论证所需的信息，但每个人都在努力，努力计算风险，那么是否存在一种埃隆·马斯克式的风险弗雷德收益哲学？当你，当你认为是进入的正确时机时，伊恩，对于如何进入新兴行业、创新领域，以及什么时候该进入或不该进入，你有什么看法？还是你只是可能——是否存在

没有水晶球，还是说是水晶球，或者通灵板？我的意思是，你怎么，你怎么判断自己应该追求什么？嗯，肯定是那块引语中的通灵板，嗯，比水晶球可靠得多，嗯，所以，呃，那个，是的，我的意思是，我，我并不是真的喜欢为了风险而寻求风险，或者，或者诸如此类的，这，而且，而且我的确认为，嗯，很多事情都非常冒险，呃，成功概率很低，但如果你想努力实现创新性突破，嗯，那差不多，那就会是它的样子，嗯，任何具有重大创新性的事情都会伴随着重大的失败风险，嗯，而，嗯，不过你知道，为了获得巨大积极成果的可能性，你就必须冒大险，嗯，而，嗯，你知道，只是，而且如果，我的意思是，如果结果足够

令人兴奋，那么，那么冒大险就是值得的。对，这确实就是我的处理方式，但，但是一旦开始沿着一条道路执行，我实际上会竭尽全力降低，呃，风险，你知道，因为，或者，或者换一种说法，就是提高成功概率，因为，呃，当你尝试做一件非常，嗯，非常冒险的事情时，呃，你，你，你必须投入大量精力，努力在你沿着那条道路前进时降低风险。我的意思是，当，嗯，当我看到巴斯克斯时，我认为成功概率非常低，嗯，我认为我们最有可能失败，嗯，但我想，好吧，尽管如此，我们还是应该试一试，嗯，而，嗯，然后我不确定你是否知道，在SpaceX之前的是什么，因为我为什么进入太空领域，嗯，我，你，我记得你

曾试图从我们的俄罗斯同事那里购买一辆飞行器，你说的是，嗯，其实，嗯，我进入太空领域的原因是试图增加NASA的预算。那上帝保佑你，嗯，那个，而不过我告诉你，我当时认为可能实现这一点的迂回方式是，嗯，我想，好吧，如果，如果NASA的预算更多、更大，那么我们就能在太空探索方面做得更多；我想，好吧，什么会特别奏效呢？如果我们能让公众对把人送上火星感到兴奋。我想，好吧，如果我能建一个小温室，然后，然后把它送到火星表面，里面带着种子和，嗯，营养凝胶，而你在着陆时给凝胶补水，就会有一个微型小温室，然后你，你会让——公众往往会对

先例和最高级的事物感到兴奋，所以就会像，你知道，某种火星上的第一个生命、旅行距离最远的生命，并且，并且让人们多少为此感到兴奋：好吧，也许我们应该把人送到那里，比如去他的植物，我们应该人，你知道。对，对，嗯，而，嗯，然后，嗯，我想，好吧，如果，如果那能让公众真正为把燃料送上火星感到兴奋，那么这会转化为国会对增加NASA预算的支持，那就是目标，嗯，然后我，我没有足够的钱购买，呃，而且我认为那个结果没有商业成功的概率是100%，不，不，不，是损失全部资金的概率为100%，所以，嗯，所以与之相比，我认为SpaceX或许有10 %的成功概率，这算是一种改善

就是这样。嗯，这说得，这说得很有道理。那么你还在考虑那件事吗？我的确记得那次谈话，这个想法是你使用火星表土，你把这些自给自足的栖息地——不是栖息地，是某种舱室之类的东西——送过去，然后种植小型的——对，大约1米宽之类的，但，但是只是为了证明这个概念。对，只是为了让——我的意思是，真正的目标是让公众感到兴奋，嗯，你会得到一些工程数据，了解维持一个火星上的小型栖息地之类的东西需要什么，嗯，但主要的事情会是让公众感到兴奋，而且，你知道，让人们，让公众支持一笔庞大的阿萨预算，那就是目标。嗯，再说一次，上帝保佑你，这是一个值得追求的目标，我希望你不要停下来。那么，嗯，商业载人项目，所以

你们已被选为商业载人项目的供应商之一，你能否稍微告诉我们，嗯，这件事对你们这家公司来说正走向哪里？也许，如果它对你们公司产生了影响，也说说它是怎样影响你们公司的；它是否改变了什么，以及你们对待太空的方式，嗯，我认为商业载人项目方面的进展似乎相当顺利，嗯，我的意思是，那个，我的意思是，总体而言，我认为，我是说，这里那里存在一些小分歧，但总的来说，我喜欢，我认为我们非常认同这件事目前的做法，嗯，而，嗯，是的，我认为这，这，这相当，相当不错。我的意思是，有几件事，比如，似乎为粪便预留的某种质量和体积太大了，比如，抱歉，我不知道，那就像——但那是，你知道，那里有一些小

诸如此类的事情，我们会想，好吧，他们真的会排出那么多粪便吗？但是，嗯，它的确是，它的确占了很大体积，真的是，嗯，所以，嗯，我真的可以——这些都是相当小的，呃，分歧，所以我认为这似乎相当，相当合理，嗯，而，嗯，然后我们在今年早些时候做了那个发射登板测试，是在海角进行的，嗯，实际上进行得，进行得，呃，相当顺利，嗯，而，呃，是的，所以事情正在不断，不断推进，开始变得相当令人兴奋，嗯，而，嗯，是的，我认为Dragon 2也有一些作为，嗯，呃，科学运送平台的潜在用途，呃，你知道，前往并运送，呃，有效载荷到火星或其他地方，嗯，我们正在与NASA的其他部门讨论，呃，其中一些想法，因为推进式着陆，呃，你知道

它确实可以降低把科学仪器送到太阳系各处的成本，呃，所以这有点令人兴奋。我稍后马上会回到这个话题，但说到商业载人飞船与龙货运飞船，显然存在一些重大差异。嗯，我认为你们在中止测试方面采取了相当创新的方法；传统上，你会看到顶部的杰森火箭，那是一种拉式技术，而你们采用的是推式技术，利用原本会用于在轨飞行的燃料，但当然你们不会进入轨道，所以这是一种非常创新的方法。从创新的角度来看，你是否觉得载人飞船还有其他一些领域正在取得重大进展？是的，我认为

那些大项目，对于，嗯，真正最大的项目，对Dragon 2而言，是进行推进式着陆的能力。嗯，它基本上是H……在飞船上配备重型推进器，所以这些相同的重型推进器，嗯，随后也可以用于中止，但会保留这些发动机。因此，与正常的，嗯，某种粗糙的任务不同，比如以苏斯为例，它们会在飞行器头部安装一个，呃，牵引发动机，基本上必须是位于头部的火箭发动机，每次飞行都必须将其抛弃。嗯，这可能是一个可靠性问题，而且它，呃，然后显然你也无法重复使用这这这这套中止系统，而且，嗯，是的，它会增加，你知道，增加一大大堆质量。嗯，但但是除此之外，这些相同的推进器还可以用于推进式

着陆，所以你可以实现精准的脉冲式着陆，嗯，可以在陆地或水面上，嗯，我认为这是一个重大改进。呃，而且，嗯，我是说，这也有点像，真的，我认为拥有那种那种能力，感觉感觉更像未来。嗯，然后正如我提到的，它可以扩展用于，呃，把有效载荷运送到月球、火星或其他地方，因为推进式着陆这种通用能力能够在几乎任何地方着着陆。非常好。那么，呃，让我们回到Dragon。你曾经在一次谈话中略微谈到过某种东西，我想它被称为Dragon实验室，你们会前往近地轨道，开展我以为是某种架次之类的研究，然后把飞行器带回来。你们仍然在

推进那个项目或类似的项目吗？你认为这是一个具有潜力的领域吗？嗯，我认为，把东西送到低轨道，然后在几周或类似的时间后再把它们把它们带回来，本质上确实存在一些潜力。嗯，这并不是SpaceX高度关注的一个领域，但我认为我们可能会执行几次这样的任务。嗯，不过，呃，是的，我是说，Dragon的首要优优化方向在很大程度上是作为一种前往……空间站前方的运输飞行器。嗯，而且，呃，所以像Dragon实验室以及科学运送平台这样的项目，我认为都是对此的有趣扩展。嗯，我认为随着Dragon 2，嗯，首次飞行，然后进入常规飞行，我认为可能会有一些

你知道，还有更多人们能够想到的应用，呃，特别是因为使用Dragon 2后，飞行器的可重复使用程度应该会相当高，所以如果Dragon飞船可以重复使用，而且——那个——那个——那个助推器也可以重复使用，嗯，并且有人愿意用完全重复使用的系统，算是，嗯，进行——进行很多次飞行，那么就有可能以低得多的成本，呃，进入太空。这个——这个——这里确实有一点先有鸡还是先有蛋的难题，因为，比如，无论如何都有一定数额的固定成本必须，嗯，被承担，所以——那个——那个发射的边际成本，或者说后续每次发射的成本，可以大幅下降，只要每年的发射频率很——很高，它能保持住。对，当然，那也增加了其他挑战。

对系统，是的，要设法按你——按你所需的频率飞行，才能实现那个目标。对。这个，让我们看看，我——我不想用我的所有问题让大家觉得无聊，而且我们谈过，如果现场各位有任何问题——让我们看看这个，哦，哇，他们一点也不害羞，这很好。所以我不知道我们是否需要麦克风，但——但我——我先从这里开始。我想问你一个问题，就是我来自太阳能领域，所以我的问题是，因为，呃，你就像是一位导师和——和一个有远见的人，你给世界各地的许多人带来希望，因为当他们看到你时，他们意识到自己能够实现梦想，但我的问题不一样，呃，当你是一个梦想家，当你是——呃，当你是一个梦想家，当你是一个有远见的人，当然——

你有自己的愿景，但有些时候，也许你会不再相信这个愿景，尤其是在遇到一些问题或失败的时候，所以你能不能告诉我，也告诉成千上万也许会因你的回答而受到激励的人，是什么让你一直为自己的愿景奋斗，是什么帮助你去——嗯，我是说，我觉得我可能天生就是那种会一直坚持下去的人，我不知道。嗯，这个，嗯，是的，我是说，就是，我，我，我不知道。我是说，当然有些时候，你知道，事情进展不顺利，那肯定会让人相当绝——，这是肯定的。嗯，所以那时就很难以同样程度的热情继续前进。嗯，但，嗯，但我确实认为，比如，我确实认为我们正在做的事情，你知道，是相当重要的

对于未来而言。嗯，如果我们不成功，那么，你知道，嗯，就不清楚还有什么别的事情能够成功。嗯，而且如果，如果我们不成功，那么我们肯定会被当作人们甚至不该尝试这些事情的理由。所以，呃，我认为重要的是，我们要采取一切必要措施继续前进。好的，呃，最后一个问题，最后一个问题。你在2004年和你的表亲去Bary man的时候，你当时在想，那里有太阳，那就利用它来制造能源吧。是的。我想问你，呃，你为什么如此相信太阳能，也相信，也相信CLE Tech能源以及可持续能源？还有最后一个问题，我不会再问任何问题了：太阳能将在火星探索中发挥什么作用？

当然。嗯，我认为太阳能对火星来说可能相当重要。嗯，而且非常重要的一点，是要有一个非常轻量的太阳能系统，嗯，你知道，在体积和重量方面都会跳舞。嗯，所以实际上，我们算是在尝试不同的概念，比如，嗯，你知道，像那个便盆一样的东西，你给它充气，它就把那个东西铺展开来。比如，其中一个可靠的概念，就是做一个大卷筒，你基本上只要给它充气，它就会展开，嗯，上面带着非常、非常、非常薄的太阳能板。嗯，但，但这会相当重要，因为实际上你要么必须采用这种方式，要么采用核能。嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，核能有它的挑战，但，但就太阳能而言，它相当直接。

嗯，所以我认为，我认为独奏对未来的火星探索肯定非常重要。那么谢谢你，我祝你的下一个生日非常成功。非常感谢。好的，来吧，来吧。好的，请讲，Valtin。好的，我叫Valentino，来自联合火箭航天公司，呃，该公司不久后将成为国家公司Ros Cosmos的一部分。呃，所以，呃，我长途跋涉来到西方，因为我想问埃隆·马斯克一个问题：他在航天业成为成功商人的秘诀是什么？然后我会回到俄罗斯，告诉俄罗斯商人，在航天业成为大亨是有路可走的。所以，呃，认真地说，我想问你，呃，当你创业时，政府是你的合作伙伴吗？

它是否有帮助，在哪些方面？所以硬币总有两面。当然。呃，是否也有过这样的时期，你，呃，不得不对抗官僚主义？谢谢。当然。呃，嗯，关于创办一家航天企业，我应该说，这绝对不是最容易的创业环境。嗯，我想，如果让大多数人按照什么能带来最高投资回报率来排序，我，我是说，航天不会排得很好。嗯，我是说，我，我非常支持航天，所以就像，我，你知道，但它，嗯，呃，我是说，事实就是，如果你，你知道，创办一家对冲基金，或者你身处很多其他行业，那么你赚钱会比在航天业容易得多。这不是最容易赚钱的行业。嗯，它，是的。嗯，汽车行业也相当

[掌声] 困难。所以，嗯，所以，呃，事实上，我是说，在创办SpaceX时，我听过那个笑话，我，我听过这个笑话太多次了，简直荒谬。嗯，那个笑话是：你怎么在航天业赚到一小笔财富？而笑点当然是，先拥有一大笔 [掌声] 财富。是的，我，我明白，我听那个笑话太多次了，以至于我会直接说出笑点，说，嗯，我想弄清楚怎样把一大笔财富变成一小笔财富，那就是我的目标。然后他们就会说，哇，他怎么知道的？嗯，所以，嗯，是的，我是说，我确实认为太空中存在机会，但，但它确实是，它是，它是一个，它，它很难推进。我认为，如果，嗯，但我认为，如果，如果，如果SpaceX和其他公司能够降低前往，前往轨道的运输成本

乃至更远地方的运输成本，嗯，那么目的地就会有很大的创业潜力。我是说，你可以把它想成，像联合太平洋铁路，你知道，呃，在联合国太平洋铁路出现之前，西海岸和东海岸之间很难开展商业活动。嗯，如果去买一辆马车，或者经历一次非常漫长的航海旅程。呃，但运输一旦存在，就会出现巨大的机会。现在看看，你知道，加利福尼亚州和华盛顿州，以及，以及，以及硅谷和好莱坞所创造的所有产业。嗯，但你，你必须拥有那个基础性的运输要素，否则这件事就，就是会非常棘手。嗯，所以我们正在努力建立那个运输要素，嗯，让进入近地轨道变得更容易

嗯，并希望将来能让前往月球或火星变得更容易。嗯，而且我，我确实有这样一个长期愿景，比如，如果，如果存在前往火星这类地方的可负担运输方式，我认为创业机会将会非常惊人，你知道，因为会有人想创造一切东西，从第一家披萨店到第一座铁或工厂，就会有，比如，极其大量的机会，让人们在火星上创造事物。而且会有不同的东西，火星上的一些东西会与我们在地球上甚至想象不到的东西不同。呃，会非常令人兴奋。嗯，所以我认为，要让太空中的事情发生，那，那确实是关键，就是你必须有某个地方，你必须有某个地方可去，以及某个地方和某种方式

到达那里。所以，是的。那么，沿着这个话题，你，你读过安迪·韦尔的书《火星人》吗？是的，是的，写得很好。你觉得怎么样？嗯，我觉得它相当出色，肯定是我读过的关于火星最真实的书之一。我是说，比如，有几处，像火星上的风力其实没有那么大。嗯，那里，嗯，它不会把你吹倒之类的。嗯，显然风速很高，但力量很低。嗯，但总的来说，嗯，我觉得它相当酷，而且显然它已经被拍成电影之类的了。所以，嗯，你没有，你在那部电影里也没有客串吗？我在那部电影里没有客串。我，我有点担心，它可能不会让人们太想去火星。呃，就像，这看起来真的很难。

我认为我们需要一部关于AAS很棒的剧，就像狂野西部一样，有枪手，还有像很酷的牛仔之类的。好，好吧，也许你也得写一本书。让我们看看，这边有一个问题。请讲。你好，我叫Anita Goell，我来自，呃，哈佛大学、MIT，经营一家名为nanobio Sim的公司。所以，呃，在你实现低成本太空旅行的愿景和梦想中，你如何在工程设计以及从本质上降低现有技术成本，与投资新的突破性物理学之间分配投资，呃，比如突破性推进物理学、反重力？对于这两类投资组合的分流，你有什么愿景？嗯，我们不会在，呃，物理学上花费大量时间。嗯，我，这个，我认为

凭借，凭借当前物理学，那里存在巨大的潜力。嗯，所以，与其依赖一项突破，而我们，你知道，实际上很难想象那项突破究竟会是什么，嗯，甚至难以大致想象它会是什么，嗯，这个，我非常有信心，凭借我们对当前物理学的了解，算是只按照，你知道，当今物理学标准模型所在的位置推进，太空光方面可能实现巨大的改进。嗯，而且我认为，借助，你知道，当然，借助Falcon 9，我认为我们可以作出改进。然后，借助我们的下一代火箭系统，它仍然，你知道，还要很多年才会出现，那将是，嗯，一套深度低温甲烷液氧系统。嗯，我认为，我认为我们可以实现完全可重复使用。嗯，而那确实是，那是，那是一个巨大的潜力，可以

嗯，你知道，将太空飞行成本降低大约2个数量级。嗯，所以，嗯，就研发而言，比如我们，我们，我们，我们，我们一找到等级工程师，就会尽快雇用他们。嗯，所以，就像，这并不那么容易找到，我应该说，是具有那种，比如，正确思维方式以及其他一切的优秀发动机。嗯，我们按照我们能找到那些我们认为确实会成为团队资产的人的最高速度进行招聘。所以这方面没有限制。好的，这边。你好，我叫Zachary Malt，是，呃，Babson College的一名学生。我只想说，能来到这里是一种荣幸。嗯，我读了Ashley V写的你的传记，其中有一件事确实让我非常感兴趣，那就是，嗯，用于Dragon V2的SuperDraco发动机，它被，嗯，用打印出来了

关于一种3D技术，你是否设想未来更多地使用那项技术，以及，嗯，当你第一次SP探索时，你认为那会，嗯，就前往火星等所有这类事情而言，它将如何影响成本？是的，绝对、绝对会。所以，嗯，正如你提到的，我们、我们，嗯，我们实际上会打印SuperDraco发动机，嗯，所以它们是用titanum inel打印出来的，嗯，并且，嗯，这实际上让我们能够，呃，大幅降低那些发动机的成本，呃，尤其是因为我们可以打印一体式冷却通道。所以，当你有一个沙漏形燃烧室，嗯，而且燃烧室壁内有冷却通道，整个壁都可以由冷却通道构成，嗯，通常很难制造那个，呃，推力室或喷管，嗯，因为

你得制造一个内套、外套之类的，对、对内套进行机械加工，然后把整个东西bra到一起，这真的很麻烦，嗯，而且里面有一堆接头，才能让它全部运作。所以通过打印，你可以打印出用任何其他方式都无法制造的东西。因此，与采用传统方法制造相比，它最终实际上更轻、更便宜。嗯，对于我们的下一代发动机，我们称之为、称之为Raptor，正如我提到的，它有点像，嗯，它、它是一个、是一个深度cryome methyls。所以我这样说的意思是，甲烷和氧气被冷却到接近各自的冰点，所以离冰点不、不远，而不是接近它们的沸点，嗯，后者更为、通常是这种情况。呃，那个，你

知道，对于那台发动机，呃，我们正努力尽可能多地打印。它、它有点，目前3D打印最大的限制是、是尺寸范围，所以我们能打印多大的东西是有限制的，嗯，但我们能够打印、打印涡轮泵部件和喷注器的大部分，不是整个东西，但、但许多关键零件我们都可以打印，嗯，所以这实际上有助于我们加快开发速度。因此，我们不用等待铸件开发完成，那可能需要几个月，嗯，然后，如果铸件有问题，你就必须对铸件进行迭代，而每次迭代都可能需要几个月，嗯，通过打印，我们可以把那些迭代缩短到几周或几个月。因此，那、那实际上也有助于提高开发速度。

这边，嗨，呃，我是Ross Spong rock，来自一家叫High Orbit的公司。我想知道，你是否能、能向我们简要介绍一下，呃，超级高铁目前进展如何，以及worker Doom与SpaceX和超级高铁技术之间是否有任何重叠？是的，SpaceX没有，我和SpaceX都没有做任何试图将超级高铁商业化的事情。嗯，我认为至少有2家、也许超过2家公司已经成立，它们完全独立于我或SpaceX，正致力于将超级高铁，嗯，技术，或者说超级高铁的构想或设计商业化。嗯，SpaceX正在做的，是我们、我们、我们将仅仅举办一个小型的，呃，学生竞赛，呃，针对h Loop构想。所以有点像Formula

SAE的运作方式，学生们，嗯，提出一个设计，并相互竞争，设计出最好的舱体。所以，SpaceX要做的只是建造一条大约1英里长的，嗯，呃，呃，低压管道，基本上是接近真空的管道，嗯，学生可以在里面用他们的舱体来某种、某种竞速。嗯，所以我们、这基本上只是为了支持，呃，让、让学生对，呃，工程学感到兴奋。那就是、那就是目前space Tex和我本人对超级高铁的唯一参与。好的，这边。你好，我是paa castano，我是一名社会学家，正在写一本关于国际空间站的书。嗯，你会如何描述国际空间站的科学价值？谈到太空探索时，你会把奢侈与需要之间的界线划在哪里？这个，

我的意思是，我，对于太空，我是说，老实说，我真的把所有时间都用来思考究竟怎样才能到达空间站，嗯。我、我，嗯，事实上，在我去看即将推出的那个新IMX项目的预映之前，我甚至从未真正看过一部像样的空间站内部影片，而它令人惊叹。就像，当那部空间站IMAX电影上映时，人们会被震撼到，它太棒了。嗯，事实上，我把SpaceX的整个团队都带去，呃，去看了那部、那部IMX电影的预映。嗯，而且，嗯，我的意思是，它、它就像是一个非常独特的，呃，实验室，嗯，因为这是唯一处在某种微重力中，嗯，又位于地球大气层之上的东西。嗯，嗯，你可以从中学到很多基本上有关人体生理学的知识，呃，还可以进行你无法

真正在任、任何其他实验室进行的实验。嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，你可以把科学家送上去，他们实际上能在这个极其独特的实验室里工作。所以，我认为那里有很多、很多、很多东西可以收获。嗯，而且，嗯，我认为你就是不能有点，你知道，忽视它的酷炫因素。就像，那就像，人们觉得它非常酷，我也觉得它非常酷。嗯，而且，你知道，公众希望太空中发生一些有人参与的事情。嗯，是的，而且它、它就是，嗯，我不知道，它是太空中正在发生的最酷的事情。所以说，这有很大价值。你知道，我们试图，嗯，向，谁，嗯，推销这个词不对，这是我们使用的词，但“推销”其实是错误的词。我们试图让人们认识到，有一个位于

近地轨道的平台，而且，呃，在近地轨道所做的事情会让我们这些永远不会真正进入太空的地球人受益，但在这样做时，你是在努力引起他们的兴趣，而他们的部分兴趣来自你谈到的酷炫因素。而且，嗯，而且我一直有点难以接受把这看成非黑即白的事情。我、我在头脑中理解它的目的，那就是我加入NASA的原因，对吧？但是，嗯，这些年来，这是我开始认识到其重要性的事情之一。所以我想问你的是，嗯，我们是否……我听到一个传言，说对于商业载人飞行的航天服，你想发挥一定作用，嗯，那么这是真的吗？而且、而且，航天服的设计背后是否有什么原因让你想要

亲自参与其中，除了乘员安全之外？是的，我想我们实际上在航天服设计上投入了，嗯，大量精力，嗯，包括功能性和美学，但我、我认为只是、只是要实现，嗯，这实际上真的很难，因为如果你只是有点优化功能性，那是一回事；如果你为了美观进行优化，它就无法工作。就像，你知道，你在电影里看到的那些东西，它们无法工作。所以，呃，这、所以、所以就像，好吧，我们怎样才能制造出既看起来很酷又能工作的东西？嗯，而且，嗯，这里的一个关键，呃，目标是，嗯，你知道，当人们看到那套，呃，航天服时，他们、他们，我们希望他们会想，是的，我希望有一天能穿上那东西。是的，那看起来太棒了。嗯，所以那、那就是，呃，那样做的原因。非常好，让我们

看，我们再问几个问题，然后，呃，让我们——我们能回到后面这里吗，还是这里已经有其他人拿着麦克风了？好，请讲，谢谢，在那之后我们再问最后一个。我是亚历克斯·珀尔曼，嗯，我来自《波士顿杂志》，今天也在为 Vice 撰稿。我希望，呃，您能否向我们简要介绍一下最近的消息，就是关于部署卫星，嗯，为发展中国家以及尚未联网的人们提供互联网的构想，谢谢。呃，当然，所以我们仍处于，嗯，某种大型低地球轨道通信星座构想的早期阶段，嗯，我们希望——有希望在明年发射，我想，是一颗测试卫星，嗯，而且，但是但是我我我认为它的长期潜力是，是相当相当

大，但我不想，呃，过度渲染或夸大，你知道，在这种，你知道，或者其实在事情的任何阶段。不过，长期目标是，是建立一个全面的全球通信系统，嗯，它能在世界任何地方提供高带宽、低延迟的连接，嗯，并通过卫星提供交叉链路，这样你就能，呃，获得，嗯，得到改善的长距离互联网。嗯，当你研究这个时，会意识到的事情之一算是，嗯，实际上可以经由太空获得一条更直接的路径，呃，而且可以——光子的移动速度更快，我是说，取决于它们穿过的光纤材料，呃，光子在真空中的移动速度实际上比在光纤电缆中快大约40%到50%

嗯，而且如果你看看光纤线缆的走向，它们沿着各大洲的轮廓铺设，并经过许多中继器和路由器以及所有这些东西，所以如果你想，比如说，从加利福尼亚的一台服务器与南非的一台服务器通信，那是一条非常非常长的路线，也算是一条非常迂回的路径，嗯，而且延迟高、光子速度低，嗯，如果这种通信是在太空中，实际上可以快得多。嗯，所以我认为，除了广泛提供带宽之外，也有潜力开展相当多的长距离，呃，互联网活动，嗯，但也值得说的是，很多公司都，呃，尝试过这个，并且有点在上面折断了他们的镐，嗯，而我认为我们希望非常谨慎地考虑如何

我们会慎重考虑如何尝试让这东西运作起来，嗯，并且不要不要让自己扩张过度，所以我们对此相当——我们相当，你知道，谨慎，但我，我确实认为这是应该建成的东西，而且拥有它会相当不错。你是否——嗯，就我们的情况而言，通信技术会先进得多。嗯，过去，比如说，像 tadic 这样的尝试，呃，当时的电子设备，嗯，带宽非常低，我是说，它们实际上是模拟的，或者勉强算数字的，嗯，而且带宽并不高，所以所以它确实无法与，比如说，地面电话竞争。就 t 而言，他们当时希望与——或者满足蜂窝需求。我们所谈论的系统不会试图与销售需求竞争，所以对于

例，它不会直接与，比如说，aridium 竞争，后者能够——能够直接与手持设备通信。我们的系统似乎会——会寻求与一个小型，呃，用户终端通信，它大约有一个披萨盒那么大，嗯，或者或者很像，呃，你知道，目前的，嗯，碟形天线，我——卫星天线，但但它会是平的，因为我们有跟踪卫星的相位射线天线，嗯，不过你可以把它安装在窗户里，或者室外任何地方，只要你能看到天空，它就会工作。看，后面这里，我们来接受最后一个问题，后面这里。嘿，埃隆，谢谢你过来，嗯，我想向你展示，我们带来了一台虚拟现实摄像机，要首次进行录制，嗯，我们在旧金山有一家名为 Space VR 的小型初创公司，而我们相信虚拟现实是

太空探索的未来，因为你可以让人们置身于每一项、每一项探索任务最尖端、最前沿的位置。这是你认真思考过的事情吗，或者对此有什么看法吗？嗯，我、我去过——我在，呃，Oculus 和 Valve 体验过虚拟现实演示，嗯，而且相当令人印象深刻，嗯，你可以大致想象，如果把它延伸到未来，真的会超级像是你就在那里，嗯，而且老实说，我怀疑有些人可能再也不想把它摘下来，嗯，这就像，它相当——我的意思是，它相当令人着迷，嗯，但是我、我、我确实认为，把它也用在太空方面会相当令人兴奋。是啊，呃，你们这里有一套设备吗？有。好吧，就在那里。哇，好吧，嗯，酷。你有时间启动最后一个，所以

你想过来看看吗？好，嗯，你在哪里办公，在——你在哪里办公？旧金山。好吧，嗯，我觉得今天可能会比较麻烦，但是，呃，但是、但是也许，呃，既然你在加利福尼亚，呃，我可以——我们可以安排一下，嗯，在，你知道，接下来的几周内。好吧，让我们看看。埃隆，我们会，呃，我们会把它称作一场、一场会议。我首先想，呃，非常感谢你，你非常慷慨地拿出了时间，而我们，嗯，你知道，从我给你打电话的那一刻起，你就全情投入了，而且，呃，真正让这个房间里的所有人感到兴奋的，是这场开放的对话，以及你、你对于，呃，对于、对于我们面前之事的想法。所以非常感谢你抽出时间，我们真的很感激。是啊，谢谢，谢谢你们邀请我。好，好，再次感谢，非常感激，再见

很快

uh so it is my great honor to uh introduce a man who needs no introduction I'm not sure where he's at but I'm sure he's going to come in here somewhere where is he oh okay there you go um uh a gentleman who we can call Elon and everybody at least in this country I know exactly who you're talking about uh but Mr Elon Musk he's the uh CEO lead designer of SpaceX uh everyone I think knows this um SpaceX is an amazing um uh commercial company it's the first company to to launch uh commercial rocket into low earth orbit uh with their Falcon 1 launch uh then in 2008 they were one of the winners of a contract to uh bring services to the International Space Station they're the first commercial company to birth with the International Space Station bringing supplies

they're also the first commercial company to return a sizable return vehicle uh with the all the components still intact which is very important to us uh back to uh to the surface of the Earth and so it's an amazing company has done a great job um and continues to push the boundaries you you'll hear from Elon but his Interest really is not so much in low earth orbit as it is going Beyond low earth orbit and and making sure Humanity will continue to live uh by exploring beyond beyond Earth um Elon has a a varied uh history of things that he's been involved in this was this is one of the things that makes it so exciting to have this conversation with him today you he's not one-dimensional space guy he's involved in Tesla motors which he is a co-founder

and CEO uh and also a a major player in the design efforts and what they choose to go build and and how um of course he was a co-founder of PayPal and zip 2 uh he's deeply involved in uh a number of other Industries as well and so it's my great honor to welcome Elon Musk to the stage thanks for coming appreciate it okay well these are great chairs you guys look at those chairs you're in um let's see so Elon you've uh you and I were going to have a little chat this morning we said it was going to be a fireside chat so minus the Fireside I guess we're ready um again I've as you heard I've encouraged folks to ask a few questions along the way but I have a few uh a few questions I thought to get us started so the first one which is probably on everybody's

mind is perhaps you want to discuss a little bit about the the recent loss of the dragon and the in the Falcon 9 here on SpaceX 7 sure well I mean I think it's OB it's a huge um load to to SpaceX and um and or we take these missions incredibly seriously um the invest the everyone that can engage in the investigation at SpaceX is um very very focused on that and um in this case the the data does seem to be quite um difficult to interpret like whatever happened is is clearly not not a sort of simple straightforward thing um so we want to spend as much time as possible just reviewing the data obviously going over it with with NASA and with fa and with um number of other customers and just sort of seeing um what feedback everyone has based on their prior

experience um to see if we can get to what the uh most likely root cause is um look at look at both what we think most likely happened um and then anything that's a close call and try to address all of those things and maximize the probability of success for future missions any hints on where you think the problem lies you well I know the this there's media and the audience so they yeah so you have to be careful you're right I never really learned that but clearly that is a lesson now working on so so it's yeah I mean I um you know the I I think I think I think we'll be able to say something um more definitive towards the end of the week um at this point really the only thing that's really clear is that there was some kind of over pressure event in the

upper stage liquid oxygen tank um but the the exact cause and the sequence of events there's there's still no uh clear uh theory that fits with all the data um so we have to determine if some of the data is u a measurement error of some kind or whether uh there is actually a theory that matches the the sort of what what appear to be conflicting data points okay very good I I'll just make a comment the tweets you put out regularly uh particularly when events like this happen uh are really useful to everybody we really do appreciate it you you'd be amazed at how many folks quote what you said and and and how how glad they are that you just step right out and at least give some sign about what's going on and that you know we'll get through it things are

going well so we appreciate that absolutely and for sure um as soon as we we think we've got a clear line on on what what happened and we've sort of crosschecked it with as many experts as we can um and we certainly appreciate the the feedback from from NASA on this front very very much appreciated um the we'll certainly quite a put out that story my only reticence about saying something quite yet is I don't want to say something that subsequently turns out to be a Mis um misunderstanding of the situation oh yeah absolutely understand that so um one of the questions that I ask myself regularly is um at what point does all this government help hurt um so this event occurred and we have uh you have NASA folks uh there uh from from about three different

programs that intend to use your services ISS being one of them you have the FAA that's uh that's involved um the range uh folks are there um without feeling like you're giving your customers a hard time how is that interaction and uh what what should we consider doing differently so that we in those areas where we can help we are helpful and in those those areas where we're really keeping you from getting your job done we we can modify ourselves yeah actually I think the interaction with NASA has been great thus far um the the the biggest challenge is there there are um a lot of inquiries coming in simultaneously so uh it's it's hard to sort of keep you know respond respond to everyone right away but but actually it seems to have gone fairly well the

the biggest thing that's needed in the in the sort of short term is the ability to sort of gather all the data um create create a very precise timeline so you know by by the millisecond we know what each sensor was reading um and we can um correlate that with ground video and actually like one of the biggest challenges is matching the the things to the exact time you know because when you're talking about you know a matter of milliseconds um you know being able to say what is the ground track video compared to the data as received by the um you know by by the station from the rocket and then taking into account for exact the the actual time taken to generate a packet of information um when was that sensor read when was it encoded into a packet and when

was that packet sent to the ground um when when you're dealing in in milliseconds that all that stuff actually makes quite a big difference yeah sure um so the that's the the the biggest sort of effort we've um been engaged in thus far is just putting together super detailed uh timeline um and then just making sure that they have the sequence of of events down as precisely as possible that's what we' working on and um but but actually certainly uh with with um the interaction we've had with with NASA and with us it's actually been quite good thus far um and we've explained that this is what we're doing and um and then we we very much welcome any uh feedback or input or review of the data that would lead us to a better understanding of the circumstances

I thought we had a very uh productive discussion back when we had the engine one anomaly and so I found it to be very useful uh but that's a perspective from from a NASA perspective so it's always interesting to know your perspective of that yeah it seems to be quite quite good actually right now yeah so um You're Building um in the last couple launches you've had Landing legs and you've uh been working on Landing um the first stage back uh eventually to shore can you talk a little bit about that and what your vision is for that and for SpaceX in general as you go forward sure well the the overarching uh goal of SpaceX is to try to advance the state of uh space transport um Advanced space transport technology to the point where um well it get as far along

the path as we can to to where uh space travel is hopefully common place at some point in the future and and where we can send large numbers of people cargo to other planets and you know it's like that's the sort of thing that that needs to happen for Humanity to have a great future in space so we want to keep pushing that and I think like key to uh to that future is reusability um so that's why we've worked quite hard on reusability unfortunately we we haven't um succeeded yet and in fact the last launch ironically was uh we we we actually had the best chance of Landing uh the vehicle on the on the this sort of drone ship that's keeping station in the Atlantic um so we're actually quite sort of geared up for for hopefully this would be a really great

launch and unfortunately ended up being the the opposite on my birthday of all things um a real Downer you'll remember it though definitely low Point um but um but but I do think in in the future launches that that we've got a decent chance of landing on on the ship and then bringing the Boost AG back to land um and then the next challenge of course is trying to figure out how to efficiently effectively reuse it um and it is designed for easy reuse in theory um but we got to see what the stage looks looks like when it comes back in one piece MH um we we have been able to over the last few years do a number of vertical takeoff and Landing tests um of uh Hardware that's essentially in the flight configuration so we know we can we can handle the the the

terminal phase if um you know if things go right we can take off the land no problem so it's just a question of uh completing all the the pieces and um hopefully later this year we'll be able to do that but that that that's key so but of course that doesn't address upper stage reuse but IT addresses boost age reuse which is sort of 70% to 80% of the of the of the cost um and um and but I think would be a great step towards uh uh lowering the the cost of space transport so you know if you look at your history uh I guess zip 2 payal these are um largely software type efforts now you've got Tesla electric uh cars uh you're building a battery plant um Solar City I guess you're involved in Solar City so why space this seems um space to me and just what I rate

we with you seems to be more of a passion than the others or our businesses but I I I can't tell why space why are you why do you think it's important for us to be sure have quick access to L orbit well the uh I mean actually technically I mean with with the uh Tesla and Solar City they're about helping to solve the sustainable energy problem um and uh so we're trying to make progress on that front on the with those companies um with with SpaceX it's uh trying to help um solve the kind of space bearing problem um I mean I I think that a a future where we're space spring civilization um and a multiplet species is very exciting inspiring awesome future um and in order for that to happen um we've got to um dramatically improve the cost of space flight um

and uh and that's that's why why SpaceX exists is to try to try to lower the cost of space flight uh which we've made some progress in doing but still I would call a improvements thus far um evolutionary not revolutionary um and um but with with a lot of continued work I mean I think there's the potential for for um order of magnitude or greater improvements reusability being key to to all of that of course um and uh yeah and then hopefully you know we want to if if we can keep improving the the cost of space flight um then eventually if that trend is in the right direction it could be uh leading to a city on Mars and certainly along the way a lot of activity in lowth orbit and um the moon and you know lots of other exciting things so one of the things

we're trying to do with the International Space Station is um try to figure out which Industries will prosper from the use of low earth orbit to try to understand or or help grow the Eon an economy essentially in low earth orbit um and folks who are doing that are all taking risks today um our job is to try to reduce the risk as much as we can near term um so that they can get the information they need to really have a business case for the future but everyone's trying to to calculate a risk so is there an Elon Musk philosophy of risk vered benefit and when you when you think is the right time to jump in Ian what is your thought on on how to approach new Industries Innovative areas and when's the right time to jump in or not or do you just may is there

no crystal ball or is it a crystal ball or Ouija board I mean how do you how do you figure out what you should go after well definitely the Ouija board of quot um much more reliable than the crystal ball um so uh the yeah I mean I I don't really like risk for risk seek or or anything it's and and I do think that um lot the things are are very risky uh with a low chance of success but if you want to try to come up with an Innovative breakthrough um that's kind of that's going to be how it is um anything which is significantly Innovative is going to come with a significant risk of failure um and um but you know if you've got to take big chances in order for the potential for a big positive outcome um and um you know just and if I mean if the outcome is

exciting enough then then taking a big risk is worthwhile yeah it's really how I approach it but but then once executing down a path I actually do my absolute best to reduce uh risk you know because or or to improve the another way of saying to improve the probability of success because uh when you're trying to do something that is very um very risky uh that you you you have to spend a lot of effort trying to reduce that risk as you and walk down that path I mean when um when I saw basx the I thought the odds of success were very low um I thought we most likely fail um but I thought well we should give it a try nonetheless um and um then I'm not sure if you know what what what preceded SpaceX cuz the why I got into the space well I you I remember you

trying to purchase the a vehicle to from our Russian col you're talking about um well actually it was um the reason I got into space was to try to increase NASA's budget well God bless you then um the the and but so I'll tell you so the roundabout way I thought we that might be accomplished was um I thought well if if NASA's budget was more was larger than we could do more in space exploration and I thought well what work particularly if we could get the public excited about sending people to Mars and I thought well if I could do a small greenhouse and and send that to the surface of Mars with seeds and in um nutrient gel and you hydrate the gel and Landing you have a little miniature greenhouse and then you you'd have the public tends to get excited

about precedents and superlatives so be like the you know sort of first life on Mars the furthest life ever traveled and and get people sort of excited about well maybe we should send people there like the hell with plants we should people you know right right um and um and then um I thought well that could if if that could get the public really excited about sending fuel to Mars then that would translate into Congressional support for a bigger NASA budget that was the goal um and then I I didn't have enough money to buy uh and I thought that that outcome would have 100% chance of no no no commercial success so 100% chance of of losing all the money so um so compared to that SpaceX which I thought maybe had a 10 % chance of success that was an improvement

there you go well that makes that makes good sense so are you still thinking about that I do remember that conversation this was the idea where you used Martian reguli you send these self-contained habitats not habitats chamber kind of things and grow small yeah like a meter across or something but but just to prove the concept yeah just to get I mean the real goal was to get the public excited um you get some engineering data about what does it take to maintain a little habitat on Mars type of thing um but the main thing would be to get the public excited and you know get people to be you know the public to be in favor of a big an Assa budget that was the goal well again God Bless you that's a worthy goal I hope you don't stop so um commercial crew so

you've been selected as one of the providers for the commercial crew can you tell us a little bit about um where that's headed for you as a company and perhaps maybe how it's affected your company if it has if it's changed anything and how you approach space um I think things seem to be going fairly well on the commercial Crew front um I mean the I mean overall I think I mean like there are small disagreements here and there but overall I like I think we very much agree with the way it's being done um and um yeah I think it's it's it's pretty pretty good I mean there are a few things where the like it seems like the amount of of sort of mass and volume reserved for poop is too high like sorry I don't know that's like but that's you know there like little

things like that we're like well are they really going to do that much poop but um it's it's quite it's quite a large volume really is um so um I could really they're pretty small uh disagreement so I think that it seems to be pretty pretty sensible um and um and then we did the the launch a board test earlier this year which at the cape which um actually went went uh pretty well um and uh yeah so things are going going along getting pretty exciting um and um yeah I think there's also some potential use for Dragon 2 as um uh as a science delivery platform uh you know going to sort of delivering uh payloads to to Mars or other places um we're in discussion uh with other parts of NASA about some of those ideas because the propulsive landing uh you know

it could really lower the cost of getting science instruments to various places in the solar system uh so it's kind of exciting so I'm going to come back to that in just a second but commercial the the crew vehicle versus the the dragon cargo vehicle clearly there are some significant differences um fairly Innovative approach I think to abort uh testing where traditionally you've seen the the jessen rocket on top that it's a puller versus The Pusher technique where you utilize fuel that you otherwise would use for the on orbit but of course you're not going in there so very Innovative approach are there other areas where you feel like you're um from an innovation standpoint you're making some significant strides with the crew vehicle yeah I think the

the the big items for well the the biggest item really for um Dragon 2 is the ability to do a propulsive landing um and it's basically H having heavy thrusters on board so those same heavy thrusters um can then do the abort but retain the the engines so instead of in a normal um sort of crude Mission like say take the soos for example they'd have a uh a tractor motor on the nose of the vehicle that would have to be basically a rocket engine on the nose that would have to be discarded on every flight um which is a potential reliability issue and it uh and then you have obviously unable to reuse the the the the abort system and um yeah and it adds you know adds bunch bunch of mass um but but then in addition those same thrusters can be used for propulsive

landing so you can achieve a precise pulsive Landing um which on on land or water um which is um I think a significant Improvement uh and um I mean it's sort of also it's sort of like really I think feels feels more like the future to to have that that capability um and then as I mentioned it for it can be extended to uh do payload delivery to to the moon or Mars or other places because of the the the generalized capability of propulsive Landing to to land land almost anywhere very good so uh let's go back to Dragon at one point you had a conversation talked a little bit about something I think was referred to as Dragon lab where you go to low earth orbit and do what I assumed was sorty kind of research and then and bring the vehicle back are you still

pursuing that or something like that is this an area where you think that there is a potential um I think that that there there is some potential for to essentially just take things to Lo orbit and then bring them bring them back you know after a few weeks or something like that um it's it's not a huge area of attention at at SpaceX but I think we might do a few missions like that um but uh yeah I mean dragon is is very much sort of its primary optim optimization is as a transport vehicle to in front the space station um and uh and so things like Dragon lab and then the science delivery platform I think are interesting extensions of that um and I think as as Dragon 2 um first flies and then gets into regular flight I think there'll probably will be some

you know more applications that that people can think of uh particularly since with Dragon 2 the reusability of the vehicle should be quite high so if we have reusability of the Dragon spacecraft and reusability of the the the the booster um and somebody's willing to sort of um do do a bunch of flights uh with with with the fully reused system there's the potential for for much lower cost uh access to space the the there is a bit of a chicken and egg challenge because like the there's a certain amount of fixed cost that have to be um carried no matter what so the the the marginal cost of launch or the cost of each subsequent launch can drop quite significantly so long as the launch rate per year is is High it stays up yeah of course that adds other challenges

to the system yeah trying to fly as often as you as you need to to make that yep well let's see I I don't want to bore everybody with all my questions and we had talked about if folks had any questions in the audience let's see this oh wow they're not bashful that's good so I don't know if we're going to need microphones but but I'll I'll start here and I would like to ask you a question which is I'm coming from the solar energy so my question because uh you are like a kind of mentor and of visionary and you give hope to a lot of people around the globe because when they see you they realize that they can realize their dreams but my question is different uh when you are a dreamer when you are uh when you are a dreamer when you are a Visionary of course

you have your vision but there are moments that sometimes maybe you stop believing in this Vision especially in the moments of um some problems or failure so could you tell me and could you tell also to thousands of people who maybe will be motivated by your answer what keeps you fighting for your vision what helps you to well I mean I I think I'm kind of constitutionally just geared to to just keep going I don't know um it's uh um yeah I mean it just I I I don't know I mean it certainly there are times when you know things don't go well and then uh that's quite despera for sure um and so then it's it's difficult to proceed with the same level of enthusiasm um but um but I do think like I do think the things that we're doing are are you know pretty important

to the Future um and if we don't succeed then you know there's well there's there's not it's not clear what other things would succeed um and if if we don't succeed then we will be certainly pointed to as a reason why people shouldn't even try for these things so uh I think it's important that we do whatever is necessary to keep going okay and uh last question last question you so in 2004 when you are going to Bary man with uh your cousin you were thinking there is a sun and let's make energy out of it yeah and I would like to ask you uh why uh do you believe uh so in solar energy and in and CLE Tech energies and also in sustainable energy and the last question I will not ask any more questions what will be the role of solar in the exploration of Mars

sure um I think solar energy is probably fairly significant uh for Mars um and what's going to be quite important is having um a very lightweight solar system um that um you know both volumetrically and gravimetrically dance um so actually you were sort of playing with different concepts like um you know that like thing that potty thing where you inflate it and it rolls out the thing like what one of the solid Concepts is is to have like a big roll that you just basically inflate and it rolls out um with with with like really thin uh solar panels on it um but but it's it's going to be pretty important because really you either got to do that or nuclear um and um you know nuclear has has its challenges but but for solar it's it's pretty straightforward

um so I think I think solo is very important to the Future exploration of Mars for sure so thank you and I wish you that your next birthday is very successful thank you so much okay let's go let's go okay go ahead valtin okay my name is Valentino I am from the United rocket and space corporation uh which uh shortly will become a part of uh State Corporation Ros Cosmos uh so uh I made this long quest to the West because I'd like to ask one question of Elon Musk what is his secret to become a successful businessman in space industry and then coming back to Russia to tell Russian businessmen there is a way to become a tycoon in space industry so uh serious seriously speaking I'd like to ask you uh when you started your business was the government your partner

was it useful in what areas and so there are always two sides of the coin sure uh as there uh there were times when you uh had to fight bureaucracy thank you sure uh well um well I should say with respect to starting a space business it's definitely not the easiest environment to start a business um I think if most people were to rank order what's the highest uh return on investment I I mean space would not be very good um I mean it's I I I'm very Pro space so it's like I you know but it's um uh I mean it's just true that like if you you know start a hedge fund or if if you're in like many other Industries then you it's much easier to make money than the space industry this is not the easiest one to make money in um it's yeah um car industry also quite

[Applause] difficult so um so the uh in fact I mean when starting SpaceX the the joke I I heard the joke this this joke so often it was ridiculous um the joke was how do you make a small fortune in the space industry and the punch line of course being start with a large [Applause] one yeah I I got I point i' heard the joke so many times that I would just get to the punchline and say like well I wanted to figure out how to turn a large Fortune into a small one that was my goal and they're like wow how did he know that um so um yeah that I mean I do think there's there is opportunity in space but but it is is it's it's a it's it's tough goinging I think if um but I think if if if SpaceX and other companies can can lower the cost of transport to to orbit

and perhaps Beyond um then there's a lot of potential for entrepreneurship at the destination I mean you can think of it like the like the Union Pacific Railway you know uh before there was the UN Pacific Railway was real hard to have commerce between the west coast and the East Coast um if go buy a wagon or a really long sailing Journey uh but once there was the transport then there were huge opportunities and now look at sort of you know California and Washington State and and and all the industries that have been created in Silicon Valley and Hollywood um but you you got to have that fundamental transport element otherwise there's just it's really tricky um so we're trying to establish that transport element um make it easier to get to lowth orbit

um and hopefully in the future make it easier to get to the moon or Mars um and I I do have this long-term vision of like if if there was affordable transport to to a place like Mars I think the entrepreneurial opportunities would be phenomenal you know because there'd be people that would want to create everything from the first pizza joint to the first Iron or factory to be like just a enormous amount of opportunity for people to create things on Mars and there' be different things on some of the things on Mars would be different that we don't even imagine uh on Earth um be very exciting um so I think that's that's really key to um making things happen in space is you got to have some place you got to have some place to go and some place and some way

to get there so yeah so so along those lines did you you read Andy wear's book The the Martian yeah yeah it was good what did you think um I thought it was it was pretty excellent certainly one of the most realistic books on Mars that um that I've read I mean like there were a few things like the wind force on Mars is not really that high well there um it's not going to knock you over or anything um it's high obviously High Velocity but low Force um but overall um I thought it was pretty cool and apparently it's been made into a movie and everything so um you don't you don't have a cameo on that one too I don't have a cameo on that one I'm I'm a little worried that it might not make people too keen on going to Mars U was like this is looks really hard

I think we need a show about AAS is awesome and it's like the wild west and you got the Gunslingers and like the cool Cowboys and that kind of thing all all right maybe you got to write a book too let's see there's a question over here go ahead hi there my name is Anita goell I'm here at uh out of Harvard MIT run a company called nanobio Sim so uh in your vision and dream to achieve lowcost space travel how do you allocate your Investments between engineering and essentially driving down the cost of existing technology versus investing in new breakthrough physics uh things like Breakthrough propulsion physics anti-gravity what's your vision in the bifurcation of those two kinds of portfolios well we don't spend a ton of time on U physics um I the I think

with with current physics there the huge potential um so rather than rely on a breakthrough which we you know really it's difficult to Invision what that breakthrough would exactly be um or even inexactly be um the I'm quite confident that with what we know of current physics sort of just going with kind of you know where the standard model of physics is today that there are dramatic improvements possible in space light um and I think with the you know certainly with with Falcon 9 I think we can make improvements and then with our next Generation rocket system which is still you know many years away that'll be um a deep cryo methalox system um I think I think we can achieve full reusability um and that that's really that's a that's a huge potential for

um you know like maybe a two order of magnitude reduction in the cost of space flight um so um as far as R&D is concerned like we we we we we hire grade Engineers as fast as we can find them um so it's like the it's not that easy to find I should say great Engine with the sort of like the right mindset and everything um we we hire at at the at the maximum rate that we can find people that we think would would really be an asset to the team so there's no limitation on that okay over here hi my name is Zachary malt I'm a student from uh Babson College I just want to say it's an honor to be here um I read Ashley V's biography about you one thing that really was intriguing to me was the um super Draco engine for the dragon V2 that was um used printed out

of a 3D technology do you envision using that technology more in the future and um when you first SP exploration and do you think that'll um how will that affect the costs in terms of getting to Mars everything like that yeah Absol absolutely so um as you alluded to we we um we actually print the super Draco engines um so they they're printed out of titanum inel um and um and that actually allows us to uh reduce the cost of those engines quite a bit uh in particular because we can print integral cooling channels so when you've got an hour glass chamber um and you've got cooling channels in in the wall of the chamber where the whole wall can consist of cooling channels um it's normally quite difficult to create that uh thrust chamber or nozzle um because

you got to create an inner jacket outer jacket kind of machine the the inner jacket it's and then bra the whole thing together it's real pain um and you got a bunch of joints in there to make it all work so with printing you can print something that you can't make by any other means so it's actually ends up being lighter and cheaper than if we built it by traditional methods um for our next Generation engine which we call the the Raptor which which as I mentioned is sort of a um it's it's a it's a deep cryome methyls so what I mean by that is the the methane and oxygen are cooled to close to their freezing points so not not far from the freezing point as opposed to close to their boiling point um which is more which is normally the case uh the uh you

know with that engine uh we're trying to print as much as possible it's it's a bit the biggest limitation on 3D printing right now is the the size envelope so there's a limit on how big we can print something um but we're able to print the the turbo pump components and much of the injector not the whole thing but but many of the critical parts we can print um so that actually helps us in speeding up the development so instead of waiting for castings to be developed which can take several months um and then if the cast is wrong you've got to iterate on the casting and each iteration can take several months um with printing we can those iterations can be reduced to a matter of weeks or months so that that actually helps with the the speed of development

as well see over here hi uh I'm Ross Spong rock with a company called high orbit I wondered if you give could give us a little bit of an update on uh what's going on with the hyperloop and is there any over between the worker Doom with SpaceX and hyperloop Technology yeah SpaceX is not neither I nor SpaceX are doing anything to try to commercialize the hyper Loop um there are I think at least two maybe more than two companies that have formed that are completely independent of me or SpaceX that are working towards commercializing the hyperloop um techn or hyperloop idea or design um what what SpaceX is doing is we're we're we're going to just create a little uh Student Competition uh for for h Loop ideas so kind of like around the the way that Formula

SAE Works where students um come up with a design and compete against each other to design the best pod so what what SpaceX will do is just construct about a mile long um uh uh low pressure tube near nearly vacuum tube basically um in which students can kind kind of race their pods um so we're it's just basically to support uh get get students excited about uh engineering that's the that's the only involvement to space Tex myself with the hyperloop at this point okay over here hello I'm paa castano I'm a sociologist and I'm writing a book about the International Space Station um how would you describe the scientific value of the International Space Station and where would you draw the line between luxury and need when it comes to space exploration well

I mean I for space I mean I really spend all of my time thinking about just how to get to the space station um to be honest I I um I actually hadn't even really seen a proper movie of the inside of the space station until I went to see the a preview of the new IMX thing that's coming out and it's amazing like when that space station IMAX movie comes out people are going it blown away it's awesome um I actually brought my whole team at at SpaceX to go uh go see the preview of the of the IMX movie um and um I mean it it's like it is a very unique uh Laboratory um because this the only thing that's in sort of microgravity um that's above the Earth's atmosphere um um and you can learn a lot about basically human physiology uh and do experiments that you can't

really do any any other lab um and um you know and you can have bring scientists up and they can actually work in this incredibly unique lab so I think that there's a lot to to to be gained there um and um and I think it just you can't sort of you know ignore the coolness factor of it like that's like people think it's pretty cool so I think it's pretty cool um and you know the the public want to have something going on in space that that involves people and um yeah and it's it's just um I don't know it's the coolest thing going on in space so like there's a lot of value to that you know we try to um to who um sell's the wrong word it's the word we use but sell's really the wrong word we're trying to get people to recognize that there's a platform in

low earth orbit and that uh this is important What's Done In Low Earth orbit has benefit to to uh those of us on Earth that will never actually go to space but in doing that you're trying to get their interest level and part of their interest level is the cool factor that you talked about and um and I've always kind of struggled with that being sort of a black and white I I understand the purpose in my head that's why I joined NASA right but um over the years this is one of the things that I've started to recognize as important so my question to you is um did we I've heard a rumor that for the suits for commercial crew that you wanted to play a role in that um and so is that true and and is there some reason behind the design of the suit that you want

to personally be involved in other than crew safety yeah I think we' actually spent um a lot of effort on the space suit design um on the both the functionality and the Aesthetics but I I think just just getting um it's actually really hard because if you just sort of optimize functionality it's one thing if you optimize for Aesthetics it doesn't work like you know those things that you see movies they don't work so uh the the so so it's like okay how do we make something that looks cool and works um and um with with a key uh goal here of being being that um you know when people see that uh space suit they they we want them to think yeah I want to wear that thing one day yeah that looks awesome um so that that's uh that's the reason for it very good let's

see we'll do a couple more questions and then uh let's let's can we get back into in the back here or do we have somebody else here already with the microphone all right go ahead thank you and we'll do one more after that I'm Alex Pearlman um I'm with Boston magazine and I'm writing for vice today I was hoping uh that you could give us a little bit of an update on the most recent news with the idea of putting satellites um to provide internet to um developing countries and unconnected people thanks uh sure so we're still at the early stages of um sort of a big Leo constellation communication idea um and we're hopeful hopefully going to launch I get a test satellite next year um and but but I I I think the long-term potential of it is is pretty pretty

great but I don't want to uh overplay or overstate you know things quite you know this you know or any stage of the game really but the the the the long-term goal is to to create a comprehensive Global Communication System um that's that provides high bandwidth low latency connectivity anywhere in the world um and provides cross links through the satellites so that you can uh have um improved long distance internet uh one of the things that um sort of you realize when you look at this is that um you can actually have a a more direct path uh through space and you can and photons move faster I mean depending upon what fiberoptic material they're running through uh photons actually move about 40 to 50% faster in in vacuum than they do in fiber optic cables

um and if you look at the the way that the fiberoptic cagles go they trace the outlines of the continents and they go through many repeaters and routers and everything so if you want to say communicate from a server in California to one in South Africa it's a very very long route and sort of very roundabout path um and it's high latency low photonic speed um and you could actually have that communication be quite a bit faster if it's in space um so I think there's there's the potential for for doing a fair bit of longdistance uh internet activity as well as providing um bandwidth broadly um but it's also withth saying that a lot of companies have uh tried this and kind of broken their pick on it um and I think we we want to be really careful about how

we deliberate about trying to make this thing work um and not not overextend ourselves so we're being we're being you know fairly careful about it but I I'm I do think this is something that should be built and would be quite good to have are you well in our case the the communications technology would be substantially more advanced um in the past with say um attempts like tadic uh the the the electronics of the day were um very low bandwidth I mean they're really analog or barely digital um and they weren't very high bandwidth so so it really didn't compete with say with terrestrial phones in the case of t they were looking to compete with or or to address cellular needs the system we're talking about would not attempt to compete with sell needs so for

example it wouldn't compete directly with say aridium which is which which can talk directly to a handset our system would seem to would seek to talk to a small uh user terminal that's about the size of a pizza box um or or much like uh you know current um dishes that I satellite dishes but but it will be flat cuz we have phased Ray antenna that's tracking the satellites um but you could mount it in a window or just anywhere outside as long as you can see the sky it would work see back here we'll take our last question back here hey Elon thanks for coming out um I would like to show you we brought a virtual reality camera here to record for the first time um we have a small startup in San Francisco called space VR and we believe that virtual reality is

the future of space exploration because you can put people on the very cutting the very front of every um every exploration mission is that something that you've given much thought or have any opinions on well I've I've gone I've received the virtual reality demos at uh Oculus and at valve um and it's pretty impressive um you can sort of imagine if that's extrapolated into the future it's really going to Super feel like you're there um and I wonder if some people are never going to want to take that off honestly um it's like it's pretty I mean it's pretty entrancing um but I I I do think it be quite exciting to do that for a space as well yeah uh do you have a setup here yeah okay it's right there wow okay um cool you have time launch the last one so

you want to come see okay um where are you based in where you based San Francisco okay um I think maybe today is going to be tricky but uh but but maybe uh since you're based in California uh I could we could arrange something um in you know in the coming weeks all right let's see Elon we'll uh we'll call it a a conference I wanted to first uh thank you very much you've been very generous with your time and we um you know from the moment I called you you were all in and uh it's really this open conversation and your your thoughts on uh on the on what's in front of us that uh really excites us all in this room so thank you very much for your time we really appreciate it yeah thank you thanks for having me all right right thanks again appreciate see you

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