[音乐] [掌声] [音乐] 2017年，你说第三次世界大战将是一场与 iai 交战或围绕 iai 展开的战争。现在我们有一场非常传统的战争，AI 能帮上忙吗？引发第三次世界大战的原因之一可能是，如果某个国家或某个地方拥有先进的 AI 技术，而其他强国想要它，或者担心某个国家获得，呃，先进的 AI，从而在战争中取得强大优势，那么它们可能会忍不住在研发强大 AI 的国家能够将其用于武器技术之前发动攻击。俄罗斯说，他们将停止交付火箭发动机。这对 SpaceX 来说是威胁还是机会？嗯，SpaceX，我们自行设计和制造火箭发动机，所以完全不依赖任何俄罗斯部件。嗯，对，对美利坚合众

国来说，这很危险，或者说，波音和洛克希德历来依赖俄罗斯的 RD-180 发动机；公平地说，我应该指出，这是一款很棒的发动机。他们希望未来借助，呃，蓝色起源的发动机摆脱这种依赖，但那些发动机还没有做好飞行准备。嗯，还有安塔瑞斯运载火箭，它依赖、使用 RDE 181，我相信因此它们将无法飞行。凭借你拥有的所有知识以及产品、服务，你是现代战争中的战略武器。你如何看待自己在这一背景下的作用？乌克兰表明，存在需要你的机会。嗯，我当然希望，嗯，SpaceX 和 Tesla 不会，呃，不会被迫开发任何种类的武器技术。显然，我们只会

在那是最后手段时才做这种事。我的意思更多是比喻意义上的，不是说你生产武器，而是说你的知识可以用来在传统战争或未来的战争，也就是 AI 战争中发挥作用。嗯，我，我想我能在冲突中提供帮助。是的，我的意思是，我努力采取最有可能提高未来向好概率的那一组行动。嗯，所以显然，我有时会在这方面犯错。因此，并不是说我每次都能做对，但我力求做对。所以，无论是什么，你知道，我认为最有可能，呃，确保未来对，你知道，全人类都有利，那，那就是我会采取的行动。嗯，是的，几个月前，我们有过一次交流

谈到，呃，安兹·荣格那本著名的，哦，对，《钢铁风暴》。是的，你对那本书非常着迷，呃，它大约出版于100年前，讲述了丛林在第一次世界大战中的经历。为什么，为什么那本书对你如此重要？嗯，我读了很多书。嗯，而且我，我不知道，出于某种原因，我就像是对，呃，战争和总体上的历史很着迷。嗯，我觉得最年轻的那本书是，呃，你知道，一份关于，呃，第一次世界大战的出色第一手记录。而且，我的意思是，我当然认为，呃，从那本书中得到的一个教训是，我们永远不想再那样做了。这很有意思。是的，这很好，这是个好主意。你这么说，是因为围绕那本书存在很大争议，有些人说这是，呃，在美化战争。是的，绝对不是

而另一些人则说，这是一个，呃，永远不要再发动战争的警告。所以你显然属于第二个阵营。嗯，我觉得，那些不喜欢最年轻的那本书的人，基本上是，你知道，只因为它没有以最极端的方式做到，呃，100%反战，于是它就因此是坏的。不，它就像一份报告。它只是两者皆非。是的，他只是在说，它是，还是负面的；它只是在以一种可怕的方式描述发生了什么。是的。所以，我的意思是，没有人读任何，没有人读那本书后说，我想成为做那个，我想做那个，那听起来……我的意思是，它非常清楚地表明，那是非常可怕的处境。嗯，但，但他也说了，就像，它不是，它不是说即使在可怕的处境中也不会产生任何好事。确实会产生一些好事

但它压倒性地糟糕。只是，只是真的，阅读历史很有意思，我的意思是，汲取历史的教训，这样我们就不会重蹈过去的错误。嗯，我们知道那句话，历史不会重复，但会押韵，而这些天我们看到了奥赖恩。回到更大的战略图景，我的意思是，普京的这些，这些，这些可怕行动，在某种程度上也是欧洲、尤其是德国所犯战略错误的结果。退出核能。实际上，我能不能说一句，我认为德国不要关闭其核电站非常重要。我认为这极其疯狂。我刚想就此提一个问题，因为如果我们，如果我们真的想削弱普京的力量，减少欧洲人和德国对

俄罗斯能源的依赖，这只有通过脱碳才能实现。所以我的问题是：为了更快地摆脱对普京的依赖并解决气候问题，我们是否应该拥有更多核能？我想说得超级清楚：我的观点是，德国不仅不应该关闭核电站，还应该重启那些已经关闭的核电站，而那些是重启速度最快的。呃，嗯，现在关闭核电站很疯狂，特别是，如果你所在的地方没有自然灾害，你知道。所以，就像，如果你也许身处某个会发生严重地震或海啸之类灾害的地方，那就更是一个，你知道，问号。我的意思是，也许，你知道。但如果，如果不存在大规模自然灾害

风险，而德国并不存在这种风险，那么核电站确实没有危险。而且你看不到任何，呃，能够产生类似效果的更安全替代方案。那么太阳能和风能做不到这一点。对于未来能源政策，你心里还有其他想法吗？我，我，我认为，从长期来看，文明的大部分，呃，能源将来自，呃，太阳能，然后你需要，呃，用电池储存它，因为显然太阳只在，呃，白天照耀。嗯，而且有时云很多，所以你需要，呃，太阳能、电池，是，是，将成为文明获得能源的主要长期，呃，方式。但从现在到那时，我们，我们需要，呃，保留核能。我怎么强调都不为过，呃，请不要关闭核电站，呃，并且请重新开放那些

已经，嗯，聊天的核电站。关闭它们完全是疯了。我想说清楚，完全疯了。让我们看看你这些非常明确的话在德国是否会受到伤害。我正努力使用最强烈的措辞。是的，我会说，这是国家安全风险。不是，像，听着，玩耍时间结束了，好吗？呃，显然玩耍时间结束了。这是国家安全，这是国家安全风险，关闭这些东西就是国家安全风险。这是那场战争带来的又一个痛苦，呃，教训。呃，这不仅仅是一个与气候有关的问题，它非常是一个问题。这是国家安全解决方案，也是气候问题，因为，你知道，要替代，我认为人们不明白，就像，你知道，燃煤电厂，呃，由于它们的排放，每年会造成一定数量的死亡，远比

比核电站更危险。你有没有，嗯，任何其他，可以说是，应对气候变化挑战的非传统想法？是否有可能通过减少消耗以及采用新型能源，在中国没有完全配合的情况下彻底解决它？还是说我们应该以不同方式看待它？有些人说，也许与其只是努力避免气候变暖，我们应该专注于如何在更温暖的气候下生活并适应它。这是一种选择吗？我认为，我们只是想采取那一组能够加速向可持续能源经济转型的行动，而正如我所说，那种可持续能源经济将主要依靠太阳能并辅以风能。你绝对需要固定式储能电池，因为

太阳能和风能具有间歇性。然后，然后还会有水力、地热、核能。嗯，这些都很好，还有战斗，但我们想要，你知道，只是尽可能快地迈向一种，一种可以说是太阳能电气化经济。呃，所以，嗯，你知道，有时人们会说，哦，好吧，天阴或什么的，你知道，那太阳能怎么办？这就像，植物会生长吗？它们是一种由太阳能驱动的化学反应。如果植物会生长，你就拥有太阳能。显然，你认为它们是怎么长大的？我认为我们只是想努力尽快推进这件事。嗯，而且，嗯，我确实想强调，虽然我认为单独将会是主要的，呃，能源来源，但它，它不会是一切。它，就像说，还会有核能、水力、地热、风能，而我们越快实现

那样对世界更好。实际上，我们某种程度上正在进行这场气候实验，但这是一场我们知道毫无意义的实验，因为，呃，我们知道煤炭，呃，以及石油和天然气最终会耗尽。这，呃，不会永远持续下去，所以无论如何，我们都必须转向某种能够长期维持的东西，因为我们会耗尽可供燃烧的碳氢化合物。那么我们干脆就别做这个实验了，呃，但我远没有人们可能认为的那么对气候问题感到恐慌，尽管我的话当然会被，你知道，有时总是被放大，但，呃，15年后会是什么样子？比，呃，今天更好，从可持续能源的角度看，比今天好得多，好得多，是的，好得多。嗯，所以你的判断是，我们将会解决

气候问题？是的，绝对会，我们会解决气候问题，呃，只是什么时候的问题。而且，而且我会说，衡量Tesla根本价值的方式，应该是Tesla让可持续能源革命加速了多少年。那才是Tesla根本性的历史准则，不在于它是否会发生——无论如何它都会发生——而在于Tesla让、能够让这一转型加速多少年。你曾经对我说过，呃，关于，呃，人口问题，繁殖率、出生率的下降是我们这个时代最被低估的问题之一。你能解释一下吗？嗯，是的，所以世界上大多数人都抱有一种错误印象，认为，呃，认为人口太多了。这不是真的。地球能够维持数倍于目前的

水平，而且出生率一直在疯狂下降。嗯，所以，而且不幸的是，就像，我们有这些，像是，呃，来自U.的荒谬人口估算。

n 那些需要更新，因为它们根本没有任何意义。嗯，其实你只要看看，比方说，去年的出生率是多少，出生了多少孩子，再把它乘以预期寿命，然后说，好吧，这就是未来会活着的人数，你知道，然后再看出生率趋势是正还是负。它是负的，所以除非出生率发生某种变化，否则那就是最好的情况。我的意思是，你可以看看，以日本为例，我想，我这里只是凭记忆，但我认为人口大约是1.1亿，不过去年，如果你用出生的，呃，儿童数量乘以预期寿命，也就是85年，这是非常令人印象深刻的预期寿命，那么日本会有，呃，我想大约6800万人，大约是……的一半

目前的人口。这并没有讲述完整的情况，因为那些你会有一个倒置的人口许可证，你已经有了一个倒置的人口许可证，其中，你知道，有很多老人，很少有年轻人，而且，嗯，你知道，所以这是怎么回事，那个倒置的人口许可证是不稳定的。这也是这里为什么我们会需要替代方案。你必须最近展示了 Optimus，而且你分享了对它能为世界做些什么的巨大期待。是的，你能稍微解释一下你的动机吗？我想这不仅仅关乎首次访问火星，那可以由 Optimus 完成。这远不止于此，是人工智能领域的一个游戏规则改变者。你能稍微分享一下你的、你的愿景吗？是的，我的意思是，就人工智能和机器人技术而言，我总是以……来对待这些事情

带着一些惶恐，因为，呃，我当然不想参与任何可能对人类有害的事情。嗯，现在类人机器人，它们显然正在成为现实。我的意思是，你看看像波士顿动力这样的公司，他们的演示每年都变得更好。所以将会有类人机器人。我的意思是，人工智能的进步速度非常快，即使 Tesla 停止从事人工智能，我认为那也会，我们仍然走在开发通用人工智能的轨道上，意思是比最聪明的人类更聪明的智能。具体来说，Optimus 将被用于 Tesla 工厂，这是其中一个使用场景，但 Tesla 以外更广泛的使用场景是什么？呃，是的，我的意思是，Optimus 是一种通用型的，呃，工人机器人。嗯，所以 Optimus 最初的角色会

是在重复、无聊、危险的工作中，诸如此类，基本上就是人们不想做的工作，除非付钱让他们做。为什么 Optimus 有 2 个欠缺？只是因为它看起来像人类，还是更实用？我以为4条腿更好，4条腿好，2个看起来糟糕。它让我想起石油。人类已经把世界设计成与一个有2条手臂、用双足行走的类人者互动，而且，你知道，有10根手指。所以，如果你想让一个机器人融入其中，并且能够做人类能做的事情，它就必须拥有大致相同的尺寸、形状和能力。原型将在今年年底前准备好。它什么时候会成为一种可以大规模营销、大规模生产的产品？这是困难的部分。嗯，我的意思是，我不知道，我想我们会有相当不错的东西

今年达到原型水平。嗯，而且它可能会准备好至少进行中等规模的量产，你知道，在明年年底前后。你认为 Optimus 会在我们的日常生活中发挥作用，帮助我们处理家务之类的事情吗？嗯，我认为它大概会，是的，我认为会。它就像是，比方说，通用型类人，呃，是的。所以你说它的潜力比、比 Tesla 的潜力更大，如果汽车方面确实如此。是的，那么它必定真的是一种大众市场产品。是的，当然。呃，好吧，我的意思是，比方说，什么、什么是经济？呃，比如人们有时会感到困惑，他们认为经济就是钱。钱是一个用于，呃，交换商品和服务以及对商品和服务的交换进行时间转移的数据库。就是这样，它是一种，钱

是一种数据库。钱本身并没有力量。比如你可以做这个思想实验，如果你被困在一个，你知道，一座偏远岛屿上，在一座岛上遭遇海难，嗯，呃，而你在一个瑞士银行账户里有1万亿美元，它毫无价值。你宁愿有一罐汤。所以，你知道，即便拥有全世界所有的比特币，你仍然会饿死。所以，呃，真正的经济是商品和服务。嗯，那么，是什么限制了商品和服务的产出？限制因素是劳动力。甚至资本也是提炼后的劳动力。所以经济的限制因素是、是劳动力，因此，如果你解决了经济的限制因素，那么传统意义上的经济是否还有任何意义就不清楚了，因为你对、对商品和服务没有限制。嗯

唯一、唯一会缺少的东西，是那些被人为制造稀缺性的东西，也就是说我们决定让它变得稀缺，比如某一件特定的艺术品，或者某一栋，你知道，恰好位于这个位置的住宅之类的，你知道。但，但是商品和服务不会短缺。不过无论如何，Optimus 也是对，呃，出生率，呃，下降问题的一个答案。如果我们没有足够的人，人们就会想要更多机器人来完成工作。乐观主义者会有助于应对两者比率的下降。但我的意思是，就像我说的，你必须问，如果这些事情继续下去，那么会发生什么？人类灭绝？那是我们想要的吗？还是逐步被人工智能取代，人类，而 Neuralink 正在赋予其能力。嗯，是的，我的意思是，你的

链接在短期内，Neuralink 只是为了解决，嗯，你知道，呃，脑损伤和脊柱损伤以及诸如此类的问题。所以说清楚，在，在很多年里，Neurolynx 的产品只会对那些失去，呃，手臂或手臂和双腿使用能力的人，或者遭受过，呃，某种创伤性脑损伤的人有所帮助。那，那就是你的腿在很多年里会有用的地方。但你知道，在我们上次谈话中，你说在你所有的项目中，Neuralink 对你来说是最，呃，重要的一个。现在仍然如此吗？嗯，我知道我说过它可能是。我不会肯定地说它就是最重要的，但它可能是最重要的，因为，从长期来看，有一种减轻人工智能风险的办法，呃，那就是，呃，我们实际上可以

通过，通过提高我们的大脑皮层与我们的第三层之间的交互速度，与人工智能融合、融合，而第三层已经是硅了。基本上，我们已经算是一种拥有3层智能的生物。最底层是边缘系统，某种动物脑，或者本质上说是爬行动物脑，某种最基本的，你知道，是的，那种动物脑或爬行动物脑。然后是大脑皮层，顺便说一下，大脑皮层主要是为，为爬行动物脑服务的。你能想象有一天，我们能够把人脑的能力下载到一个 Optimus 里吗？能，我认为那是，我不是说这是，我认为这是可能的。我认为那样做是可能的，而这将成为永生的另一种方式，因为我们也会下载

我们的人格到大约，是的，我们可以下载那些我们认为令自己独一无二的东西。当然，如果你不再处于一个身体里了，那肯定会存在一些差异，你知道。所以，嗯，但就保存我们的记忆，嗯，以及可以说是我们的人格而言，呃，我们可以，我认为我们可以做到。雷·库兹韦尔预测在25到来的奇点时刻正在迅速临近。你认为这个时间线仍然现实吗？嗯，我不，我把这看成不是，我过去，我，我不确定这是一个奇点，也就是说，我不确定那里存在一条非常清晰的边界。我的意思是，我们已经外包了如此多的计算，嗯，你知道，我们的记忆连同图片和视频一起储存在手机和电脑里，嗯，你知道，电脑

和，和手机，呃，增强了我们的沟通能力，令我们能够做到会被视为魔法的匹配事情，嗯，并且会让你在，你知道，也许300年前被绑在火刑柱上烧死。嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，两个人可以进行一次视频通话，呃，基本免费地从世界的两个地方，你知道，在世界相对的两端。这很了不起。所以我们已经，我们已经用电脑极大地增强了我们，嗯，我们某种意义上的人脑。嗯，而，而，而且我认为一个值得粗略计算的有趣比率，会是，嗯，数字计算量，嗯，除以生物计算量，以及这一比率如何随时间变化。而且由于有如此多的数字计算如此迅速地发生，那个比率正

快速上升。说到速度，你设想有一天星舰能够在30分钟内从A点到B点，遍及全球，对吗？如果是这样，这一愿景的时间框架是什么？它就像一辆全球超级出租车，你可以直接从，我是说，从旧金山去内罗毕。是的，嗯，我是说，着陆，着陆会很响，所以你可能会想要连接，呃，你知道，嗯，临近海洋或海域的城市，这样你就可以在，也许，呃，我不知道，离岸足够远的地方着陆，使拉丁着陆噪音不会打扰人们。但从一岸到另一岸，那会现实吗？绝对会，是的，是的。它就像一枚洲际弹道导弹，只不过把选装包从核弹改成着陆，删除核弹，广告着陆。埃隆，你已经解决了如此多的

人类问题，也提出了如此多的解决方案。我很惊讶，有一个话题似乎对你没有太大的吸引力，那就是，呃，长寿和显著延长寿命的项目。为什么不热衷于此？嗯，你个人对活得更久不感兴趣吗？我的意思是，我不，我不认为我们应该设法让人们活非常长、非常长的时间。那会导致社会僵化，因为事实是，大多数人不会改变自己的想法，他们只是死去。因此，如果他们不死，我们将会，将会被旧观念困住，而社会将不会进步。嗯，我认为我们已经面临一个相当严重的杰曼托克拉西问题，许多国家的领导人都极其年迈。你看，我是说

在美国，那是，你知道，年龄非常、非常大的，呃，领导层。而且，如果你，嗯，你知道，处在那个，你知道，如果你比民众年长许多代，就根本不可能与民众保持联系。嗯，美国的建国者为，呃，政治公职设定了最低年龄，但他们没有设定最高年龄，因为他们没料到人们会活这么久。但他们本应设定，嗯，因为如果你真的想让民主良好运作，领导人就必须与大多数民众保持相当程度的联系。而如果你太年轻或太老，就，你不能说自己会与他们保持联系。有没有一种理想年龄？你想活到多大？嗯，我认为对于政治领导层，我认为你会希望处于，我不知道，嗯，范围内

理想情况下，在人口平均年龄以内，或者至少相差 20 年。这听起来并不太疯狂。嗯，所以，嗯，你知道，对我来说，我不知道。我的意思是，我当然希望能在更长的一段，一段时间内保持健康，但我并不害怕死亡。我认为那会是一种解脱。所以，只不过你可能无法在有生之年看到 SpaceX 的愿景成为现实。嗯，我想活得足够久，看到那一刻。拥有大约 2300 亿的净资产，被视为地球上最富有的人。嗯，我认为普京明显比我富有。你真的这么认为？是的，是的。嗯，我，我的意思是，我不能跑去入侵国家之类的。我，我相信，我的意思是，有句古老的名言，好像出自……是，是克拉苏斯吗，或者，呃，说你，你不算真正富有，除非你……

负担得起一支军团。你知道，你知道约翰·劳吗？我不知道。约翰·劳曾是300年前地球上最富有的人。好吧。他是个扑克玩家、赌徒，在农场。他是地球上最大的艺术收藏家。所以有很多最高级的称号。哇。最后他破产了。什么？所以跌得相当惨。你有没有想过这种可能性，即某些事情可能出错，而你有一天可能失去一切？我的意思是，有很多次我都预计自己会失去一切。不是，你知道，我的意思是，谁会创办一家汽车公司和一家火箭公司，并期待它们成功？肯定不是我。我认为它们成功的可能性都不到10，而且坦率地说，呃，我没错。呃，在那件事上，我们经历了SpaceX的第3次失败，而如果第4次发射失败了

SpaceX 会在2008年倒闭。

嗯，我们没有没有第5次发射的钱，而对于Tesla，呃，我们，Tesla已经多次处于破产边缘。嗯，而且我们，我们在2008年完成了最后一轮融资，因为请记住，在2008年底，通用汽车和克莱斯勒正在破产，福特也几乎破产了。所以想象一下，在通用汽车正在破产时，试图为一家电动汽车初创公司融资，而且人们甚至对我开口询问感到愤怒。所以，但我们勉强筹到了足够的钱，得以勉强撑过去。嗯，并在可能完成融资的最后一天的最后1个小时，为Tesla完成了这轮融资，那是在圣诞夜。如果我们当时没有完成那轮融资，它就会在圣诞节后2天破产。所以你知道自己在说什么。是的，这个约翰

劳，呃，像是破产罚款之类的，我不在乎。约翰·劳因一句话而闻名，呃，“liko no me，经济就是我”。我刚才说的是法语还是英语？苏格兰，正如她所说。是的，法语里有这么一句漂亮的话。他在法国工作，而他当时的主要语言是法国。所以，嗯，问题是，你是否认为存在这样的危险：有一天，不仅像谷歌或Facebook这样的大型平台可能面临，呃，严格得多的监管，而且埃隆·马斯克也可能受到监管？因为实际上监管本来就是这样，呃，你知道，SpaceX和Tesla都受到监管。不，但我的意思是，可能会出现一种讨论，认为这实在太多了，呃，比如涉足太多领域，比如我个人拥有太多权力之类的。嗯，我的意思是，呃，如果你，如果你在许多对社会绝对

对一个社会至关重要，非常具有支配性。火星见，笨蛋们。那是……[笑声]。是的，好吧，所以避免那种情况的一个办法，一个办法，是做一个好公民，而你就是，并且你有自己的基金会。你能否稍微向我们介绍一下你的项目，你的基金会未来打算做什么，你的优先事项是什么，是捐钱以及在你的商业活动之外改善世界？是的，我的意思是，我，我确实想强调，SpaceX和Tesla从根本上说是为了提高未来是美好的概率。所以这会做得更多；就对人类的用处而言，它们所做的会比我从慈善角度做的任何事都多。我的意思是，Tesla显然是为了加速可持续能源，那很重要。SpaceX是为了让

生命成为多行星的，当然还有通过拖延提供全球互联网。这些都是根本性的善举，那些公司带来的益处将远远超过我从慈善角度所做的任何事。而且我不得不说，要有效地把钱捐出去非常困难，如果你在意的是这些钱实际上能做好事，而不仅仅是营造做好事的观感。但你有没有想专注于某个具体项目，比如食品供应、饥饿这个重大议题，或是你想到的任何其他基金会活动？嗯，这个，你知道，我，就像我说的，有效地把钱捐出去是一场巨大的挣扎，呃，如果你在意，就像我说的，如果你在意的是确实做好事，而不是营造做好事的观感

那么，要有效地捐出钱是非常困难的，而我关心现实，认知被击落。所以，你知道，显然有环境事业，还有这个教育，尤其是科学与工程教育、儿科医疗保健，你知道，呃，如今饥饿更多是一个政治和物流问题，而不是没有足够食物的问题。事实上有很多食物，你知道，在 U……

在很多很多国家，问题更多是肥胖，而不是饥饿。呃，所以，嗯，但我总是，比如，我一直在寻找有效捐钱的方法。比如你认为我应该做什么？你知道，未被充分认可的英雄，呃，是那些在医院提供服务、帮助老年人的人，我认为他们没有游说团体。好吧。所以我认为应该为他们做些事情，因为如果我们遇到麻烦，我们都需要他们。当然。考虑一下。如果你谷歌搜索埃隆·马斯克，我想你有15600万条搜索结果。真的吗？7600万Twitter关注者。你绝对是地球上最受欢迎的人之一。对你而言，受欢迎是一种愉悦还是一种负担？嗯，这会让人很难去街角商店买杯咖啡，这是肯定的。嗯，所以

所以很难到处走动，你知道。嗯，我过去还能只是，你知道，去商店或沿街散步，而现在做这些相当困难。这让我有点想起，呃，德国前总理赫尔穆特·科尔，他曾对我说，你无法想象去餐厅有多可怕，每个人都认得你，来到你的桌边。是的。找你要签名。那太可怕了。生活中只有一件事比这更糟，那就是再也没有人来到你的桌边。我想是吧。嗯，我会，我，我真的，呃，我很难去餐厅。嗯，所以，嗯，如果我去了，我只会尽量找一张角落里的桌子，那里光线有点昏暗之类的，让我可以稍微不碍事。但你不能转身。有什么事情是你

嗯，最迫切想实现的吗？嗯，我的意思是，整个，嗯，我的意思是，在这个，你知道，短期内紧迫的事项是完……完成完全自动驾驶，让完全自动驾驶以远比人类安全的水平运行。基本上，这归结为解决现实世界AI的问题。那占据了我很多心思。然后是让星舰运行起来，不仅要进入轨道，还要实现完全且快速的重复使用，这实际上是火箭技术的圣杯，也是人类成为多行星物种所必需的。有没有什么事情是你会……而且你不认为那些事情可能在今年发生？有没有什么你真的很想实现、但认为会不可能的事情？嗯，不可能

是一个很强烈的词。但你不喜欢那个词。嗯，它只是一个很强烈的词。我，我的意思是，我算是从物理学的角度处理事情，而“不可能”这个词，你知道，或多或少在物理学中是被禁止的。嗯，所以，嗯，我真的很担心这个出生率问题，它已经困扰我很多年。嗯，因为我就是看不到它出现转机。你知道，我，每年情况都更糟，而且，呃，我把朋友们逼疯了。也许建议一下，那可以成为你的基金会的一个项目。当然。好吧。你是个多才多艺的人，有没有什么领域是你完全不擅长的？我非常不会跳舞。虽然你那么喜欢科技舞曲。是的，但科技舞曲的好处是，你不必很会跳舞，基本上只要到处蹦就行。[笑声] 沃尔特·艾萨克森正计划

写一本传记，而且他写过爱因斯坦、史蒂夫·乔布斯、本杰明·富兰克林和列奥纳多·达·芬奇的传记。在这4个人当中，你想和谁见面并喝一杯葡萄酒？嗯，我的意思是，哪怕只见1分钟，能见到其中任何一位都是荣幸。嗯，我想富兰……我想本·富兰克林会是共进晚餐时最有趣的那位。你会说自己和其中哪一位最接近？会是列奥纳多·达·芬奇吗？我想我，呃……你是个文艺复兴……和那些人很不一样。你知道，那里的每个人。嗯，坦率地说，实际上可能是本·富兰克林。呃，你知道，他做了很多科学和工程方面的事情。嗯，我不知道，但，嗯，你知道，有趣的是，达·芬奇，呃，首先且最重要的是把自己视为一名工程师，而在他的，比如申请中，比如当他申请

为了，你知道，为了他的职位，呃，嗯，你知道，那，那引领了他，那让他得以创作许多艺术作品。呃，他的申请完全是在讲他的工程方面的东西，然后在最后写道，我也做一些艺术。[笑声] 有趣的是，嗯，达·芬奇确实把自己视为一名工程师，而且，你知道，我的意思是，就那个时代而言，他相当了不起。呃，德国作家托马斯·曼曾，呃，把人生的目的定为做一名服务于人类进步的工程师。当然。对于你自己的抱负来说，这是一个好的定义吗？是的，我认为这是一个好的定义。自由对你而言是社会最重要的价值吗？不，我认为不死才是。我的意思是，比如，比如，如果每个人只关心那个，就没有社会，你知道，我只是说

有一个马斯洛需求层次理论，你知道，就是，就是，就是类似，好吧，你知道，我，我，如今我们，你知道，在过去，我是说，你知道，好年景就是没有那么多人死于，呃，饥饿，呃，你知道，瘟疫，没有那么多人冻死，也没有那么多人被邻近部落杀死。过去，如果情况是，嘿，我们去年只损失了5%，那就很棒了，你知道。现在，现在，现在这些事情真的，呃，你知道，远远不像过去那种程度的担忧。科达对自由，呃，对我们社会中的自由做了什么？嗯，我认为，呃，自由承受的是被严重限制，呃，随着，随着科贝特。你认为这是长期影响吗？你认为我们会回去吗

回到旧规范，嗯，这方面尚无定论，你知道，你担心吗，是的，我认为，我认为，我认为我们应该收回，呃，政府权力，呃，那些权力在隐蔽时期被大幅增加了，嗯，你知道，我认为我们正处于这个阶段，嗯，它的尾声，或者它不再是，你知道，一个重大关切，所以我们需要主动收回政府在，呃，科贝特期间设立的权力，你曾经说过，在火星上，呃，如果那里有人类生活，就应该实行直接民主，是的，我认为直接民主比代议制民主更不容易受到腐败影响，嗯，我是说，我还想提出的其他建议，比如任何法律都需要足够简短，让每个人也都能读完，嗯，而且，而且应该有某种，呃，呃，应该更容易

废除一项法律，而不是制定一项法律，你认为觊觎大流行有什么积极影响吗，我认为有许多许多的萨布莱宁斯，嗯，呃，合成 RNA 的进展因为 COVID 而显著加速，而且它将有助于治疗癌症、过敏、细菌性疾病，是的，是的，我是说，合成 RNA 是革命性的医学，大多数人没有意识到这究竟是多大的一场革命，我会说，这就像医学从模拟走向数字，而这可能是这里的重大加速因素，呃，就像，呃，瘟疫期间一样，那也是社会进步和医学进步的一大加速因素，非常显著，嗯，是的，呃，这其实很有意思，你知道，英语在英格兰曾被压制了相当长时间，因为征服者威廉

是，呃，诺曼法国人，我是说，所以那甚至不是法国的法语，它就像是法语的一个不同版本，是的，但那是官方语言，而且在英格兰，法庭数百年来只使用法语，如果你想上法庭，你就必须，你必须要么会说诺曼法语，要么雇一个会说的人，嗯，或者，而且后来实际上那场戏剧变得如此糟糕，以至于有那么多律师死于那场戏剧，他们没有足够多会说法语的人，呃，来供法庭使用，所以他们说，好吧，我们必须让法庭使用英语，因为活着的人中没有足够多会说诺尔法语的人，所以瘟疫间接成为社会民主化的一个触发因素，我是说，是的，我是说，它确实，它实际上确实，呃，我认为对整个社会而言

改善了情况，至少，至少根据我对英格兰情况的观察，呃，人们实际上能够在法庭上说英语，呃，因为他们没有其他选择，嗯，而且，而且很多其他事情也得到了改善，嗯，当时存在劳动力短缺，呃，因为瘟疫，所以，呃，那，那让劳工手中拥有了多得多的权力，嗯，所以，而且，而且给了他们更多的行动自由，嗯，所以，埃隆，我想我们必须结束了，不过只再问几个非常简短的问题，你最大的恐惧是什么，嗯，我认为有，你必须说，比如人类面临的生存威胁有哪些，嗯，我们花了很多时间谈论出生率问题，嗯，那，那可能是人类文明未来所面临的最大单一威胁，然后还有

嗯，你知道，人工智能出错是一个重大关切，嗯，我认为宗教极端主义是一个关切，你知道，你最大的希望是什么，我最大的希望是人类在火星上建造一座能够自给自足的城市，你说过你不能也不想独处，我非常认同这种感受，是的，它从何而来，我认为这只是一种自然的人类反应，我是说，大多数人，很多人独处时很快乐，我不，我真的，那是，呃，我认为大多数人独处时并不快乐，嗯，你会，你是，你感到孤独吗，我是说，有时我确实感到孤独，是的，但我是说，我觉得这很基本，比如说，如果我正在研究这枚星舰火箭，呃，在，你知道，得克萨斯州南部，而且，而且我只是住在我的小房子里

独自一人，尤其是如果我忘了带我的狗，你知道，如果我的狗没和我在一起，那么，嗯，那么我会感到相当孤独，因为我只是独自一人待在一栋小房子里，连狗都没有，最后一个问题，你曾经说过，嗯，如果我没有处于爱中，我就不可能快乐，你现在快乐吗，我认为爱有不同程度，嗯，但当然想要成为，嗯，我们完全快乐，我认为你必须在工作中快乐，也在爱情中快乐，嗯，所以我，嗯，我中等快乐，快乐有不同程度，对项目、对工作的爱能弥补人与人之间的爱吗，我认为根据我的经验，对工作的爱充其量或许能让一个人获得一半的快乐，那也许是你最大的希望，真正处于爱中，我过去曾经处于爱中，我尽量做到尽可能按字面理解，呃，我，我会感到快乐，如果人类拥有一个

在火星上建一座能够自给自足的城市，因为那样一来，人类可能延续的时间就会长得多。你知道，我觉得我们真的只有这个，你知道，意识，就像这支小小的意识蜡烛，像虚空中的一束微光，而我们不希望浩瀚黑暗中的这支小蜡烛熄灭。非常感谢你，埃隆，接受这次访谈。好的，谢谢你，你。

[Music] [Applause] [Music] in 2017 you said the third world war will be a war with or about iai now we have a very conventional war can ai help one of the reasons for world war iii would be if one country has or one place has advanced ai technology and other powers wanted or they're worried about some country gaining uh advanced ai that would would give them a strong advantage in war then they may be tempted to attack before the country that is developing the strong ai has that for use in weapons technology russia said that they are going to stop the delivery of rocket engines is that for spacex a threat or an opportunity well spacex we design and manufacture our own rocket engines so we do not rely on any russian components at all um for for the united

states of america it is dangerous or well the boeing and lockheed have historically relied on the russian rd-180 engine which i should say to be fair is a great engine they are hoping to move away from that uh in the future with the uh engines from blue origin but those engines are not yet ready for flight um there is also the antares vehicle which is dependent uses the rde 181 i believe they will not be able to fly as a result with all your knowledge and products services you are a strategic weapon in modern warfare how do you see a role in that context ukraine shows that there are opportunities that you needed well i certainly hope that um spacex and tesla do not uh are not forced to develop any kind of weapons technology obviously we would only do

such a thing if it was the last resort i mean it more in the metaphorical sense not that you produce weapons but that you are that your knowledge can be used in order to make a difference in conventional warfare or in the warfare of the future which is ai um i i think i can be helpful in conflicts yeah i mean i try to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good um and so obviously sometimes i make mistakes in this regard so it's not like i would always get it right but i aspire to get it right and so whatever you know i think is most likely to uh ensure that the future is good for you know all of humanity that that does the actions that i will take um yeah a couple of months ago we had an exchange

about uh anz junger's famous oh yeah storm of steel yep you were very fascinated by that uh book which has been published roughly hundred years ago about jungle's experiences in the first world war why is why is that book so important for you well i read a lot of books um and i i don't know for some reason i'm like fascinated by uh war and history in general um i thought that youngest book was uh you know an excellent first-hand account of uh world war one and i mean it certainly i think uh a lesson taken from that book is we don't ever want to do that again that's interesting yeah that's good that's a good idea saying that because there's a big controversy around that book and some people are saying this is uh a glorifying war yeah it's definitely not

and other people are saying a warning for uh not having a war ever again so you're clearly in the second camp well i think like those who are don't like youngest book are basically you know just because it's not uh 100 anti-war in the most extreme way then that there's therefore it's bad no it's like a report it's just neither yeah he's just saying is it or negative it's just describing what happened in a terrible way yeah so i mean nobody's reading any nobody's reading that book and say i want to be do that i want to do that that sounds i mean it makes it very clear it's a very terrible situation um but but he also said like it's it's not like it's it's not like there's no good that comes out of even a terrible situation there's some good that comes

out of it but it's overwhelmingly bad it's just it's just really it's interesting to to uh read about history i mean learn the lessons of history such that we do not repeat the mistakes of the past well we know that saying history doesn't repeat but it rhymes and we see orion these days back to the bigger strategic picture i mean the the the terrible actions of putin are to a certain degree also a result of strategic mistakes that europe particularly germany has made the drop out of nuclear energy actually can i just say i think it's very important that germany not shut down its nuclear power stations i think this is extremely crazy i just wanted to ask a question on that because if we if we really want to reduce putin's power and europeans and germany's

dependence on russian energy this works only through decarbonization so my question to you is should we have even more nuclear energy in order to get faster independent from putin and to resolve the climate issues i want to be super clear my opinion germany should not only not shut down the nuclear power plants it should reopen the ones that shut down and those are those are the fastest ones to restart uh um it's crazy to shut down nuclear power plants uh now especially like if you're in a place where there's not natural disasters you know so like if you're maybe somewhere where there's severe earthquakes or tsunamis or something like that it's more you know of a question mark is i mean maybe you know but if if there's not like massive natural disaster

risk which germany does not have then there's really no danger with the nuclear power plants and you don't see any uh safer alternatives that could have a similar effect so solar and wind is not going to do it with any other ideas in mind about future energy policy i i i think long term most of uh civilization's energy is going to come from uh solar and then you need uh to store it with a battery uh because obviously the sun only shines uh during the day um and sometimes it's very cloudy so you need uh solar batteries is is will be the main long-term uh way that civilization is powered but between now and then we we need uh to maintain nuclear i can't even emphasize enough uh please do not shut down the nuclear power plants uh and please reopen the ones

that um have been chat this is total madness to shut them down i want to be clear total madness let's see whether your very clear words are hurt in germany i'm trying to use the strongest words yeah i would say this is a national security risk it's not like like listen play time is over okay uh obviously play time is over this is a national security it's a national security risk to shut these things down it's another bitter uh lesson of that war uh it is not only an issue with regard to climate it is very much an issue it's a national security resolution and it's a climate issue for you know replacing i think people don't understand like you know the coal power plants uh because of their emissions they cause a certain number of deaths every year far more

dangerous than nuclear power plants do you have um any other let's say unconventional ideas to deal with the challenge of climate change is it possible through the reduction of consumption and through new forms of energy to resolve it completely without china being completely aligned or should we have a different way to look at it some people are saying perhaps instead of just trying to avoid a warmer climate we should focus on how to live with a warmer climate and adapt to that is that an option and i think we just want to take the set of actions that accelerate the transition to a sustainable energy economy and that sustainable energy economy is going to be like i said primarily solar with wind you absolutely need stationary storage batteries because

of the intermittency of solar and wind and then then there will also be hydroelectric geothermal nuclear um these are all fine and the combat but we want to you know just move as quickly as we can to a a sort of a solar electric economy uh so um you know sometimes people say oh well it's cloudy or something you know what about solar and it's like do plants grow they're a solar-powered chemical reaction if plants grow you have solar power obviously how do you think they grow i think we just want to try to move this quickly as possible um and um i do want to emphasize that while i think solo will be the the main uh source of energy it it won't be everything it's it will like say there'll be nuclear hydroelectric geothermal wind and and the faster we get

there the better for the world it's really we're kind of running this climate experiment but it's an experiment where we know that that's pointless because uh we know ultimately we will run out of coal uh and oil and gas this is uh it's not going to last forever and so we have to transition to something that is long-term in any case because we will run out of hydrocarbons to burn so then let's just not run the experiment uh but i'm much less of a climate alarmist than people might think although of course my words are taken you know sometimes always amplified but uh how is it going to look like in 15 years better than uh today much better than today from a sustainable energy standpoint much better yeah much better um so your bet is we are going to solve

the climate issue yes absolutely we will solve the climate issue uh it's just a question of when and and i'd say like the fundamental good of tesla should be thought of as by how many years did tesla accelerate the sustainable energy revolution that's the fundamental historic code of tesla not whether it would occur it would occur anyway but by how many years did can tesla accelerate that transition you once told me uh about uh population that uh the decrease of reproduction rate birth rate is one of the most underestimated problems of our times can you explain um yeah so most people in the world are operating under the false impression that uh that there are too many people this is not true earth could maintain a population many times it's the current

level and the birth rate has been dropping like crazy um so and unfortunately like we have these like uh ridiculous uh population estimates from the u.

n that need to be updated because there just don't make any sense um really you can just look at say what was the birth rate last year how many kids were born multiply that by the life expectancy and say okay that's how many people will be alive you know in the future and then say is the trend for birth rate positive or negative it's negative so that's the best case unless something changes with the birth rate i mean you can look at take japan for example i think i'm just going off memory here but i think the population is roughly 110 million but last year if you take the number of uh children born times the life expectancy which is 85 years it's very impressive life expectancy then japan would uh have i think around 68 million people roughly half of

the current population that does not tell the full story because those that you would have an upside down demographic permit you already have an upside down demographic permit where you know a lot of old people very few young people and um you know so how is this that upside down demographic permit is unstable that's also here why we'll need alternatives you have to recently presented optimus and you shared great expectations what that could do for the world yeah could you explain a little bit your motivation i assume it's not only about the first visit to mars that could be done by optimus it is more than that a game changer in ai could you share a little bit your your vision yeah i mean with respect to ai and robotics i always approach these things

with some trepidation because uh i certainly do not want to be play a hand in anything that could potentially be harmful to humanity um now humanoid robots they're clearly happening i mean you look at like boston dynamics they their demonstrations are better every year so there will be humanoid robots i mean the rate of advancement of ai is very rapid even if tesla stopped doing ai that would i think we're still on a track to develop artificial general intelligence meaning intelligence smarter than the smartest human concretely optimus is going to be used in tesla factories that's one of the use cases but what is the broader use case uh beyond tesla yeah i mean optimus is a general purpose uh sort of worker droid um so the initial roles for optimus would

be in work that is repetitive boring dangerous that kind of thing basically work that people don't want to do unless they're paid to do it why has optimus 2 lacks just because it looks like a human being or is it more practical i thought four legs are better four legs good two looks bad it reminds me of oil humanity has designed the world to interact with a bipedal humanoid with two arms and you know ten fingers so if you want to have a robot fit in and be able to do things that humans can do it must be of roughly the same size and shape and capability the prototype is going to be ready by the end of this year when is it a product that can be mass marketed mass-produced that's the hard part um i mean i don't know i think we'll have something pretty good

at the prototype level this year um and it might be ready for at least a moderate volume production you know towards the end of next year do you think that optimus is going to play a role in our daily life helping us in the household and things like that um i think it probably would yeah i think so it's just like say general purpose humanoid uh yeah so you said the potential is bigger than the than the potential of tesla if that's true for cars yeah then it must be really a mass market product yeah sure uh well i mean say like what what is an economy uh like what people get confused sometimes they think an economy is money money is a database for uh exchange of goods and services and for time shifting the exchange of goods and services that's it's a money

is a database money doesn't have power in and of itself like you can run the thought experiment if you're trapped on a you know a remote island a shipwrecked on an island um uh and you've got a trillion dollars in a swiss bank account it's worthless you'd rather have a can of soup so you know all the bitcoin in the world you're still going to starve so uh the actual economy is goods and services um so then what limits the output of goods and services the limiter is labor even capital is distilled labor so the limiting factor for the economy is is labor and so if you address the limiting factor for the economy then it's not clear that an economy in the traditional sense has any meaning anymore because you have no constraint on on goods and services um

the only the only things that will be missing are things that have artificial scarcity so that way we decide to make it scarce like a particular piece of art or a particular you know home in this exact location or something like that you know but for but there will be no shortage of goods and services but anyway optimus is also an answer to the problem of uh uh drop in uh birth rates if we have not enough human people want more bots to get the work done optimists will be helpful with respect to dropping both rates but i mean like i said you have to say like if these things continue then what happens humanity dies out is that what we want or step by step replaced by artificial intelligence human beings that neuralink is empowering well yeah i mean your

link in the short term neurolink is just about solving um you know uh brain injuries and spinal injuries and that kind of thing so to be clear the the for for many years neurolynx products will just be helpful to someone who has lost the use of their uh arms or arms and legs or who has uh just a traumatic brain injury of some kind that's that's what your leg will be useful for for many years but you know our last conversation you said that neurolink is among all your projects for you the most uh important one is that still true um i know i said it it could be i wouldn't say for sure it is the most important but it could be the most important in that the there is a long-term mitigation to artificial intelligence uh which is that uh we could effectively

merge merge with artificial intelligence by by improving the speed of interaction between our cortex and our tertiary layer which is already silicon we're basically we're already a sort of a three level intelligence creature the base level is the limbic system the sort of animal brain or reptile brain essentially the sort of fundamental you know yeah that animal or reptile brain and then there's the cortex which the cortex by the way is largely in service to the the reptile brain could you imagine that one day we would be able to download our human brain capacity into a optimus yes i think that is i'm not saying this is i think it is possible i think to do that is possible which would be as a different way of eternal life because we would also download

our personalities into about yes we could download the things that we believe make ourselves unique now of course if you're not in a body anymore that there's definitely going to be some difference there you know so um but as far as preserving our memories um our personality if you will uh we could i think we could do that the moment of singularity that ray kurzweil has i think predicted for 25 is approaching fast do you think the timeline is still realistic well i don't i i see this as not i used to i i'm not sure this is a singularity meaning like i'm not sure there's a very sharp boundary i mean already there's so much compute that we outsource um you know our memories are stored in our phones and computers with the pictures and video um you know computers

and and phones uh amplify our ability to communicate uh enabling us to do match things that would have been considered magical um and had had you burned at the stake in you know maybe 300 years ago um and um you know you could have two people had to have a video called uh basically for free from two parts of the world you know on opposite sides of the world it's amazing so we already we've already amplified our um our sort of human brains massively with computers um and and and i think an interesting ratio to roughly calculate would be the um amount of compute that is digital um divided by the amount of compute that is biological and how does that ratio change over time and with the there's so much digital compute happening so fast that that ratio is

increasing rapidly talking about speed you have the vision that one day starship could be able to get from a to b in 30 minutes all around the globe is that correct and if so what would the time frame for this vision it's like a global super taxi you can just go from i mean san francisco to nairobi yeah um i mean the landing the landing will be loud so you'd want to probably be connecting uh you know um cities that are next to oceans or seas such that you can land maybe uh i don't know far enough offshore that the latin landing noise is not disturbing to people but coast to coast that would be a realistic absolutely yeah yeah it's like an icbm but to change the option package from nuclear to landing delete the nuke ad landing elon you have solved so many

problems of mankind and presented so many solutions i'm surprised that one topic seems not to be too fascinating for you and that is uh the project of uh longevity and increased lifespan uh significantly why are not passionate about that well you're not personally interested in living longer i mean i don't i don't think we should try to have people live for a very long time for a very long time that it would cause ossification of society because the truth is most people don't change their mind they just die and so if they don't die they will be will be stuck with old ideas and they won't society won't advance um i think we already have quite a serious issue with the germantocracy where the the leaders of so many countries are extremely old look i mean

in the us it's you know very very ancient uh leadership and it's just impossible to stay in touch with the people if you are um you know at the you know if you're like many generations older than them um and the founders in the us they put minimum ages for uh political office but they did not put maximum ages because they did not expect that people will be living so long but they should have um because you really want in order for a democracy to function well the leaders must be reasonably in touch with the bulk of the population and if you're too young or too old it's you can't say that you would be in touch is there a kind of ideal age and how old would you like to get well i think for political leadership i think you want to be i don't know um within

ideally within or at least 20 years of the average age of the population this doesn't sound too crazy um so um you know for me i don't know i mean i certainly would like to maintain health for a longer period of period of time but i'm not afraid of dying i think it will come as a relief so only you may not be able to see the vision of spacex come true in your life well i'd like to live long enough to see that being at a net worth of 230 billion roughly being perceived as the richest person uh on earth well i think putin is significantly richer than me you really do yeah yes well i i mean i can't go invade countries and stuff i i believe i mean there's like some old quote that from was it was it crassus or uh that you're you're not really rich unless you

can afford a legion do you know do you know john law i don't know john law used to be the richest person on earth 300 years ago okay he was a poker player a gambler on the farm he was the biggest art collector on earth so a lot of superlatives wow in the end he went bankrupt what so pretty far to fall did you ever thought about that option that something could go wrong and that you could one day lose everything i mean there's been many times where i expected to lose everything not you know i mean who starts a car company and a rocket company expecting them to succeed certainly not me i thought they both had less than a 10 chance of success and frankly uh i wasn't wrong uh in that in we had the third failure of spacex and if the fourth launch had failed

spacex would be dead in 2008.

um we didn't have no money for a fifth launch and for tesla uh we were tesla's got been on the verge of bankruptcy many times um and we we closed the last the financing round in 2008 because remember at the end of 2008 general motors and chrysler were going bankrupt and ford was almost bankrupt so imagine trying to raise money for electric car startup while general motors is going bankrupt and people were angry that i even asked so but we were able to just barely raise enough money to squeak by um and close the financing round for tesla on the last hour of the last day that was possible in christmas eve and if we're not closed that financing around then it would go on bankrupt two days after christmas so you know what you're talking about yes this john

law uh like a bankrupt fine or whatever i don't care john law got famous with the sentence uh liko no me the economy is me i just got french or english scott as she said yeah there's like a nice phrase in french he worked in france and his main language then was france so um so the question is do you see any danger that one day not only big platforms like google or facebook could face uh much more rigid regulation but that elon musk could be regulated because of regulation actually as it is uh you know spacex and tesla are regulated no but i mean that that there could be a discussion that it's just too much uh like in too many areas like i have too much power personally or something well i mean uh if you if you build in many sectors that are absolutely

crucial to a society very dominating see you on mars suckers that's the [Laughter] yeah okay so one way one way to uh to avoid that is to be a good citizen and you are and you have your own foundation could you tell us a little bit about your projects what your foundation is going to do in the future what your priorities are is to donate money and to improve the world beyond your business activities yeah i mean i i do want to emphasize that spacex and tesla fundamentally intended to improve the probability of the future is good so this will do more they will do more than anything i do from a charitable standpoint in terms of of usefulness to humanity i mean tesla's about accelerating sustainable energy obviously that's important spacex is about making

life multi-planetary and of course providing global internet through stalling these are fundamental goods that the good of those companies will far exceed anything that i do from a charitable standpoint and i have to say it is very difficult to give away money effectively if you care about the money actually doing good and not merely the perception of doing good but do you see any concrete project that you would like to focus on like for example food supply starvation as a big topic or anything else that comes to your mind for your foundation activities well the you know i the like i said it's a big struggle to give away money effectively uh if you care about like i said if you care about the reality of doing good and not the perception of doing good

then it is very hard to give away money effectively and i care about the reality perception be downed so there's you know obviously environmental causes there this education especially science and engineering education pediatric health care you know uh hunger these days is is more of a political and logistics problem than it is not having enough food there's a lot of food in fact you know in the u.

s uh in many many countries the the issue is more obesity than it is a hunger uh so um but i always like i'm looking for ways to give away money that are effective like what do you think i should do you know what heroes of uh underrated heroes are the people who are doing a service in hospitals helping elderly people and i think they don't have a lobby okay so i think to do something for them because we all need them if we are in trouble sure think about it if you google elon musk i think you have 156 million search results really 76 million twitter followers you are definitely one of the most popular people on earth is popularity a pleasure or a liability for you well it makes it difficult to go buy a coffee at the corner store that's for sure um so

it's so it's hard to go around places you know um i used to be able to just you know go to the store or walk down the street and now it's quite difficult to do that it reminds me a bit of uh the former chancellor of germany helmut kuhl who once told me you cannot imagine how terrible it is to go to restaurant everybody recognizes you who comes to your table yeah ask you for an autograph that's terrible there is only one thing in life that is worse if nobody comes to your table anymore i suppose so well i would for i i really uh it's hard for me to go to a restaurant um so um and if i do i just try to find a corner table and that's kind of dimly lit or something where i can sort of stay out of the way but you cannot turn around is there anything that you

um most urgently wanna achieve well i mean the whole um i mean the in the you know the pressing items in the short term are com completing full self driving so that we have full self-driving operating uh at a substantially uh safer level than humans basically it's it comes down to solving the problem of real-world ai that's that consumes a lot of my mind and then getting starship to work not just to get to orbit but to achieve full and rapid reusability which is really the holy grail of rocketry that is necessary for humanity to become a multi-planet species is there anything that you would and don't think those things might happen this year is there anything that you really would like to achieve which you think is going to be impossible um impossible

is a strong word but you don't like that word well it's just a strong word i i mean i sort of approach things from a physics standpoint and the word impossible is you know more or less banned in physics um so um i'm really worried about this birth rate thing that's been troubling me for many years um because i just don't see it turning around you know i every year it's worse and uh i drive my friends crazy advice perhaps that's a project for your foundation sure okay you're a multi-talent person is there any field of total incompetence i'm terrible at dancing although you like techno music so much yeah but the nice thing about techno is you don't have to be able to dance very well you can just jump around basically [Laughter] walter isaacson is planning

a biography and he has written a biography on einstein on steve jobs on benjamin franklin and leonardo da vinci among the four with whom would you like to meet and have a glass of wine well i mean we're honored to meet any of them even for a minute um i think frank i think ben franklin would be the most fun at dinner and who is the one where you would say i'm closest to him would it be leonardo da vinci i think i'm uh you are a renaissance pretty different from those people you know everyone there um it might actually be ben franklin frankly uh you know he did a lot of science and engineering stuff um i don't know but um you know it's funny davinci uh thought of himself first and foremost as an engineer and in his like application like when he applied

for to you know for his position uh um you know that that led him that enabled him to create a lot of the art uh his application was all about his engineering stuff and then at the end and also i do some art [Laughter] it was just funny that um that that he really davinci really thought of himself as an engineer and you know i mean for the time he was pretty impressive uh the german author thomas mann once uh set the purpose of life to be an engineer in the interest of progress of mankind sure is that a good definition for your own ambitions yeah i think that is a good definition is freedom for you the most important value of the society no i think not being dead is i mean like like no society if everybody just cares about that you know i'm just saying

there's a maslow's hierarchy you know of of of like okay you know i i these days we you know back in the old days i mean you know a good year would be a year where not that many people died of uh hunger uh you know plague not that many people froze to death and not that many people were killed by the neighboring tribe back in the days that if it was like hey we only lost five percent last year that was great you know now now now those things are really uh you know not not concerns anywhere near they would like level of what they would be in the past what did coda do to the freedom uh to freedom in our society well i think uh freedom took what was severely restricted uh with with kobet do you think it's a long-term effect do you think we are going back

to old norms well the jury's out on that front you know are you worried yeah i think that i think i think we should roll back uh government power uh that was massively increased in the covert times um you know i think we're at the this point um the tail end of it or it's no longer you know a major concern and so we need to actively roll back the powers of government that were created during uh kobet you once said on mars uh if there's human life there should be direct democracy yes i think direct democracy is less susceptible to corruption than representative democracy um i mean the other recommendations that i'd like to like in any laws need to be short enough that everyone can read them as well um and and there should be some uh uh it should be easier

to get rid of a law than make one do you see any positive effects in the covet pandemic i think there are many many sublinings um the uh advancement of uh synthetic rna was accelerated significantly because of covid and it's going to help with cancer allergies bacterial diseases yeah yes i mean synthetic rna is revolutionary medicine that most people are not aware of just how much of a revolution that is i would say this is like medicine going from analog to digital and and that could be the big accelerator here uh like uh during the plague which also was an accelerator of progress in society and medical progress big times um yes uh it's actually interesting you know english was was suppressed in england for quite a long time because william the conqueror

was uh norman french i mean so it wasn't even french french it was like a different version of french yeah but that was the official language and the courts were only in french for hundreds of years in england if you wanted to go to court you had to you have to either be able to speak norman french or hire someone who could um or and and then actually the play got so bad that so many lawyers died in the play that they didn't have enough people who could speak french uh for the court so they said okay we have to have the courts in english because there aren't enough people alive who can speak nor in french so indirectly the plague was a trigger of democratization of society i mean yeah i mean it was it it actually did uh i think for society as a whole

improve things at least at least based on my observation of things in england uh the uh people were actually able to speak english in courts uh because they had no other choice um and and a lot of other things were improved um there was a labor shortage uh because of the plague and so uh that that gave put a lot more power in the hands of laborers um so and and give them more freedom of action um so elon i think we have to come to an end but just a couple of very brief questions what is your biggest fear well i think there's you have to say like what are the existential threats that humanity faces um we spent a lot of time talking about the birth rate thing um that that might be the biggest single threat to the future of human civilization then there's

um you know artificial intelligence gone wrong is a big concern um i think religious extremism is a concern you know what is your biggest hope my biggest hope is that humanity creates a self-sustaining city on mars you said that you cannot be and don't want to be alone i very much share that feeling yeah where does it come from i think it's just a natural human reaction i mean most people a lot of people are happy if they are alone i don't i really that's uh i think most people are not happy being alone um would you are you do you feel lonely i mean there are times when i feel lonely yes but i mean i think it's it's pretty basic like if i'm say working on this starship rocket uh down at you know south texas and and i'm just staying in my little house

by myself especially if i forget my dog you know if my dog is not with me then um then i feel quite lonely because i'm just in a little house by myself with not even a dog last question you have once said um if i'm not in love i cannot be happy are you happy at the moment i think there's degrees of love um but certainly for want to be um we're fully happy i think you have to be happy and work and happy in love um so i um i'm medium happy there are degrees of happiness can love for projects for work compensate love among people i think love of work in my experience could it best make one halfway happy perhaps that's your biggest hope to be really in love i have been in the past i try to be as literal as possible uh i i would be happy if humanity has a

self-sustaining city on mars because then the probable lifespan of humanity is much greater you know i think we really just got this you know consciousness like this little candle of consciousness like a small light in the void and we don't want that small candle in a vast darkness to be put out thank you very much elon for that conversation all right thank you you