[音乐] 大家好，非常感谢你抽出时间，你知道，自从我们2年前开始做这个播客以来，我们一直想请你来，所以我们非常高兴我们，我们请到了你，而且确实是在你的X平台上，多酷啊。是的，呃，这相当酷。是的，我是说，你可以让来自世界各地的很多人，呃，同时进行实际上是实时的播客，而且，呃，效果相当不错。非常好，嗯，我们有太多东西可以聊了。[音乐] 呃，我想先从，从AI谈起，嗯，那么你怎么看我们目前在AI竞赛中所处的位置？哇，这回答起来很长，嗯，AI领域正在发生太多事情，它是我见过的所有类型中进步最快的技术，而我见过很多技术，嗯，你知道，几乎没有一个星期会

过去而没有某种新公告，所以，呃，如果你看看，呃，AI硬件的数量，也就是正在上线、专用于AI的计算机，其增长速度看起来至少是每年10倍，甚至可能是每6到n个月10倍。所以，当你把硬件，嗯，正在上线的硬件结合起来看，确实每隔，你知道，就算至少每9个月便增长一个数量级，嗯，以及，呃，许许多多的软件突破，呃，如果你看看那条曲线，它看起来很疯狂。所以我认为我们会，嗯，我，我，我猜我们将拥有比任何一个人类都更聪明的AI，大概会在明年年底左右，嗯，然后是AI，AI某种有感知计算的总量，我认为可能会在5年内超过全体人类。这个，这场竞赛是关于什么的

眼下，是算法吗，是人才吗，是算力吗，眼下它，它是关于什么的，是芯片供应吗，到底是什么？是的，去年是，呃，芯片限制，嗯，还有硬件部署。如果你把它分成人才、嗯、数据和硬件这3个领域，并从硬件开始，去年关乎换挡供应，人们无法获得足够的，嗯，尤其是视频芯片，嗯，今年它开始转向电压变压器供应，也就是实际部署足够多的电压变压器，呃，所以我那个非常小众的笑话是“给Transformer用的transformer”，因为许多运行的AI被称为Transformer，所以你需要transformer来运行Transformer，嗯，然后接下来，如果你展望1年或2年

或者肯定是3年，嗯，问题就只是电力的可获得性，所以这些就是硬件方面的那些、那些限制，嗯，如此多的聪明人、世界上最聪明的人正在、正在做AI，那些以前本来会研究物理学的人，实际上，或者曾经研究过物理学的人，例如，都转向了AI，因为它就是发展最快的领域。所以我们看到许多最优秀的人才、许多最聪明的人类进入AI，然后，呃，与此同时，我们也看到了算法突破，嗯，然后、然后你开始撞上数据问题这堵墙，嗯，所以，你知道，你可以把有史以来写过的所有书，嗯，只有文本，把文本、文本的压缩形式，呃，放在一个硬盘上，或者称为一台、一台计算机，嗯，所以当你、当你查看比如所谓的token时

用来训练，是的，呃，而且你，你仍然会觉得，比如由所有人类以每一种，以所有语言写成的所有书，听起来数量很多，当然，它远远超过任何一个人类所能，所能读完的量，嗯，但实际上，这是一个很小的，这是很少的训练token，就是不够。所以然后你，你开始不得不查看我创作的所有视频，嗯，你知道，所有播客、所有一切，嗯，而且，而且你甚至开始把那里的数据也用完。嗯，希望他们，希望他们会把这个播客包括进去。呃，他们肯定会把这个播客包括进去。你在，呃，在xAI面临的最大挑战是什么？嗯，xAI仍然相对较新，所以它并不，嗯，你知道，呃，比如目前的限制因素只是训练我们的Gro第2版模型

我们认为它应该会比GPD 4更好，嗯，而且我们希望在5月完成这件事，所以它现在正在训练。所以实际上，我们只是在努力让足够多的GPU上线，以足够快的速度训练它，从而在5月完成，嗯，我认为这可能会实现，嗯，然后，而且，而且那使用了，呃，大约20,000个H100，呃，而且我认为训练效率很高。然后下一步会是GR 3，我猜它会是G55或更高水平，呃，那会，你知道，需要100,000个Nvidia H100协同训练。所以那是，你知道，训练量基本上多半个数量级，嗯，然后你真的会开始遇到这个数据问题，你，你要么必须创建合成数据，要么使用现实世界的视频，那些，那两个

某种无限数据的来源是合成数据和现实世界的视频，我应该说，Tesla在现实世界的视频方面拥有相当大的优势，嗯，Tesla拥有的现实世界视频远远多于任何人。是的，你们那里有一个庞大的资料库。那么你认为，那么你认为我们什么时候会看到真正的AGI？嗯，这取决于你如何定义AGI。如果你把AGI定义为比最聪明的人类更聪明，我认为可能是在明年年底，比如、比如2年内，嗯，但是、但是从那里到比机器增强的人类集体更聪明，仍然、仍然有相当大的跨越。所以，比如，它是否比所有共同协作的人类更聪明，呃，而这些人也在使用计算机来增强他们的产出？而那一点，我认为可能是5年

之后。一种、一种看待它的方式是、是、是尝试评估，嗯，比如数字计算与生物计算的比例大致是多少。关于，嗯，AI的最后一个问题，你对监管以及，嗯，它应该如何构建有什么新看法吗？嗯，我、我认为我们可能确实需要某种监管机构来审视AI的安全性，嗯，就像我们有监管机构和其他领域来，嗯，你知道，监督飞机和飞机安全、汽车以及、以及其他事物，你知道，还有药物。所以，呃，现在AI进步的速度是、是快，是比可能任何监管机构能够跟上的速度都更快，嗯，但是、但是对于我认为在实现安全AI之前非常重要的事情，我确实有一点看法，那就是，呃，把AI训练得诚实到

尽可能的程度，嗯，并且不要，呃，是的，就是要尽可能诚实，嗯，我认为，当你把AI编程为政治正确时，可能会产生一些非常危险的事情。想想那些现在可能显得，呃，相对无害，但如果AI拥有巨大权力，未来就不会如此的事情。你可以看看Google Gemini的例子，它、它拒绝发布，拒绝生成一张白人乔治·华盛顿的图片，而且、而且事实上，任何历史人物都会自动被处理得多元化，嗯，因为它被编程为坚持多元化，这听起来，你知道，起初或许没问题，但如果AI拥有如此大的权力，以至于它实际上可以强制推行多元化，并判定某一类人太多或者某一性别的人太多，然后把他们杀掉，那就不行，只是、只是

杀掉足够多的人，直到那个、那个多样性数字是、是它被编程认定为正确的数值。但你不觉得这会在下一个版本中得到解决吗？不会、不会，他们会让它更隐蔽一些。好吧。没那么明显，但它仍然会存在。好吧，那我们拭目以待。但中国在哪里？你认为，中国现在在I方面相对于美国处于什么位置？嗯，我、我不确切知道中国是什么情况，呃，只知道中国有很多非常聪明的人，嗯，而且他们不会、他们不会远远落后于世界其他地区，也不会远远落后于美国。嗯，我是说，AI、AI目前高度集中在旧金山和伦敦，嗯，然后，你知道，中国也有、有，你知道，很多事情正在发生，但我、我、我不了解他们在做什么，呃，只知道他们

我相信，他们不会是f……落后于，呃，西方所开发出来的东西。是的。嗯，所以，但是、但是、但是记住我的话，如果、如果，呃，如果我们不把AI编程为尽可能诚实，那、那就是它会走向arai的地方，那就是危险所在。是的。转、转向T这里，转向、向Tesla，嗯，电动汽车转型现在是否比你预期的更慢？现在的转型速度相对于你的预期究竟如何？我觉得其实进行得相当快，尤其是挪威。嗯，绝对是。好吧，那里几乎全都是你们的、你们的Tesla。是的，挪威有很多Tesla，太疯狂了。再次感谢挪威对电动汽车的支持，嗯，非常感谢时间。所以我认为，我们会，那个、那个、那个、那个电动、那个

所有交通工具都将完全电动化，呃，这只是时间问题，嗯，最终也包括飞机和船，嗯，显然还有火车。唯一讽刺的是难以，好吧，你其实无法让它电动化的是火箭，因为你需要，你无法摆脱，嗯，必须喷射质量这件事，呃，某种意义上就是牛顿第三定律。嗯，但、但是所有汽车都将变成电动汽车，这只是时间问题，而我们将来回顾燃烧原因时，会像我们回顾，呃，蒸汽机一样。嗯，那个、那个，我当时，它曾经，内燃机汽车的出现是不可避免的，而o成本将会电动化也同样不可避免。嗯，而且，嗯，会有一些e，而且你知道，所以，比如它将不会是一条完全笔直向上的线，会有一些，呃，e和流动

体现在电动汽车发展到了多远，但，但是电动汽车最终的，嗯，胜利是不可避免的。嗯，而且，而且我认为我们越早实现它越好。是的。你现在如何看待这里的中国竞争？我们总体上发现，中国的公司是世界上最具竞争力的，而当然在，呃，电动汽车或总体上的汽车领域，中国汽车公司遥遥领先，是最具竞争力的。嗯，是的，我们在那里遇到了最艰难、最艰难的竞争挑战，他们制造很棒的汽车，而且工作非常努力。那么当你乘坐其中一辆中国汽车时，你怎么想？我是说，你是工程师，你知道，对于它你怎么看，你，你怎么想？我最近没有乘，我没有乘过，因为它们

并非都能在这里买到，你知道，在美国买不到，或者在美国能买到的非常少。嗯，有些在欧洲可以买到。嗯，但据我的团队告诉我，它们非常［音乐］好。转，转到外太空，嗯，要怎样才能在火星上实现自给自足？要在火星上自给自足，真正关键的是运送到火星表面的总吨位。嗯，所以你可以说，嗯，我，我认为大概需要100万吨，也许，也许更多，但要让火星实现自给自足，可能需要大约100万吨到1000万吨。那么那是多少枚火箭？好吧，我最近就此做过一次演讲，如果人们去看我，我最近的，呃，SpaceX 演讲的话。但如果你，如果你每次有，呃，真的，呃，如果你每次有100吨

飞行，你需要10,000次飞行才能达到100万、100万吨，嗯，而那是着陆到火星表面的100吨，所以为了让100吨着陆到火星表面，你需要500，是那个数字的5倍，进入地球轨道，嗯，所以我们会进行大量的轨道补加燃料，嗯，也就是一遍又一遍地发射某种，呃，火箭，呃，加注飞船，那、那会为前往火星的飞船补充推进剂，嗯，然后你大致需要约10,000艘这样的飞船，才能达到100万吨，嗯，而且，呃，但是我们、我们计划这么做，那、那是，呃，那是我们认为可以在20年内完成的，真的吗，那么，你认为什么时候，那么你认为我们第一次会在什么时候到达那里？第一、第一艘，呃，好吧，第一艘将会着陆火星的星舰，显然

一开始不会不会载人，我想大概在5年内，嗯，然后可能会发射几艘飞船，只是为了确认它们能在火星上顺利着陆，嗯，我们同时也会开展月球任务，所以，呃，去实现——嗯，我想，我想我们的人员会在5年内重返月球，我应该这么说，而且我们会在5年内让无人飞船在Ms上着陆，然后我们会提高生产速率，嗯，并改进助推器和飞船的设计，所以，嗯，第一批登上火星的人，我想会在7年左右，7到9年内，嗯，从从那以后，我们需要迅速增加，我们需要让大量轮班运转，而地球和火星大致只有在每两年中的

6个月里处于太阳系的同一个象限，或者至少只有在这段时间才真正有可能高效地，嗯，从地球转移到火星。我说每6个月，但实际上大概有几个月的时间是理想的，每26个月一次，嗯，所以每两年，你基本上会看到一支舰队从火星出发，而我认为，看到1000艘飞船像《太空堡垒卡拉狄加》那样同时从火星出发，会是相当壮观的景象。在那里实现自给自足之前，我们还需要什么样的新技术？事实上，我认为我们已经拥有全部技术，我们已经知道实现这件事所必需的全部技术，只是需要，我们只需要建造。所以这不需要新的物理学。为什么这对你如此重要？我认为这对一般意义上的意识很重要，嗯，所以如果如果

我们希望最大限度延长意识的寿命，那么成为一个多重化物种，将使意识、意识存在的时间比我们只生活在一个星球上长得多。如果我们只在一个星球上，我们只是在咬着时间，直到最终发生一场灾难。它可能很快发生，也可能要很久，但最终总会发生某件事。它可能是，你知道，一场全球瑟曼核战争，也可能只是文明仅仅衰退。我们的文明也许不会轰然消亡，而会在一声呜咽中死去，只是只是逐渐陷入废弃状态。但如果我们是多重态物种，那么我们就拥有2个星球，并且它们可以相互支持，嗯，而我们最终可以超越2个星球，前往木星的卫星，前往，前往呃嗯更远的地方，前往

太阳系的外围，最终前往其他恒星系统。所以，在这片浩瀚黑暗中，我们拥有的这支微小的、这支微小的意识烛光可以得到延续，嗯，并被放大，而如果我们是多重态物种，我们生存下来的可能性就大得多，意识生存下来的可能性也大得多。你不认为最好把所有这些资源都用来设法解决地球上的问题吗？好吧，为了正确看待这件事，我所说的用于使生命成为多行星生命的资源，将少于地球全部资源的1%。所以实际上你可以把它看作资源分配问题：你认为是否值得花费地球资源的0.5%，来确保，呃，我们的意识拥有冗余，并把意识扩展到火星之外，扩展到其他

行星，扩展到火星和其他行星，并最终扩展到其他恒星系统，嗯，而且还要考虑到这个事实：有些不可避——有些事情是我们在地球上根本无法避免的，嗯，比如你有能力凭意念阻止第一次世界大战吗？我不这么认为。不。如果它发生了，嗯，如果我们爆发瑟拉尔战争，我们的技术水平将倒退到船尾时代，嗯，而且我们可能永远无法幸存。此外还有，我们也许会像恐龙那样被彗星撞上，而且，嗯，你知道，如果恐龙有宇宙飞船，它们可能现在仍然存在，嗯，所以，然后如果如果你等待足够长的时间，地球，太阳将继续膨胀，最终吞没地球、摧毁地球，并摧毁所有生命。所以只要给它一定的时间量

，无论你在地球上做什么，无论你多么谨慎，嗯，地球会——生命——地球上的所有生命都会死亡。这件事将会发生，是一个[音乐]确定的事实。换个稍微没那么阴郁的话题，呃，X，Twitter。对。嗯，你现在的愿景是什么？你怎样看待X的愿景？X的目标是成为互联网上最好的真相来源，嗯，我认为我们正在取得不错的，你知道，不错的进展。而且我的意思是，它将成为我所说的“万能应用”，就像你想做的任何事情，都可以在X平台上完成，嗯，无论是文本、音频、视频，呃，支付、金融事务，嗯，各种通信，嗯，然后，但但是对于公开传播的信息，也要成为最好的真相来源，嗯，而我认为它，我认为

它已经是了，嗯。现在人们可能会说，哦，那里有某条错误信息、虚假信息。我说，是的，但看看回复，回复纠正了那条错误信息，再看看社区笔记，以及社区笔记的命中率有多高。它极其出色，它远远是互联网上最好的事实核查系统，嗯，所以，而且而且许多人仍然辛苦地抱着一种错觉，以为他们阅读的那些传统报纸实际上是真的。里面有太多胡说八道了。我的意思是，你有多少次——当你读到报纸上的一篇文章，而你了解那篇文章所涉及的实际情况时，它有多经常完全准确？不，当然，它呃通常不准确。不，当然，我们都知道它通常是错的，但但是你怎么看

不确定，但你怎样看待现在的情况？比如俄罗斯，呃，你知道，俄罗斯在德国利用虚假账户所做的工作，那是相当相当庞大的活动，对吧？我的意思是，坦率地说，我们在系统上没有看到很多俄罗斯的东西，嗯，所以我们看到的非常少，嗯。我们的确，我们的确看到很多很多试图影响事态的行为，但它们似乎来自西方，而不是来自俄罗斯。好吧，那，嗯，那最近在巴西等地发生的事呢？对，当然。对，所以，呃，我们不断收到，嗯，呃，这位亚历山大法官的要求，嗯，那是他在Twitter上的名字，亚历山大，嗯，要求暂停账户，嗯，立即暂停。通常只给我们2个小时来暂停一个

账户，否则就面临巨额罚款，嗯，而最后一根稻——我们收到、收到要求，要暂停现任、现任议员和主要记者的账户，而且我们还不能告诉他们，这这是应亚历山大·莫拉莱斯的贝斯特而为。我们不得不假装这是由于我们的服务规则，而那就是最后一根稻草，我们说不。现在，嗯，当你，当你买下Twitter，嗯，现在更名为X时，你预料到自己最终会陷入这类情况吗？所以这些全都出乎意料吗？嗯，我知道它不会只是一整片B的玫瑰，嗯，你知道，而且这很fing，我[笑声]不会，嗯。不，我的意思是，我原以为，由于我们只是在严格努力追求成为最准确、最真实之地的，这个、这个、这个目标，在

互联网，而那，那并不意味着人们所说的话总是真实或准确，但它是——或许另一种表述方式是：成为互联网上最不失准确的地方。你，你看得清楚吗——你是不是暗自觉得这有点好玩？很好玩。对，对，有时很好玩，有时压力很大，有时也很好玩，嗯。但总体来说，我们是在努力为地球人民服务，嗯，而且，而且，而且这算是一种S——算是，也许是一种esic的看法，但，嗯，就是努力成为某种地球的群体意识。所以你可以这样想：如果每个人都像一个神经元，为地球的集体大脑作出贡献，而你希望努力让连接到X网络的每一个神经元的噪声最小化、信号最大化，那就是

基本上，什么是、什么是人类的集体意志，以及以及以及如何，对，就是服务于人类的集体意志，从而服务于更大的善，那，那就是我们的目标，嗯。现在肯定会有人想操纵那些信息，所以我们必须与之斗争，并努力做到，呃，你知道，尽我们所能成为最准确的地方，并让它成为某种思想市场，让人们可以提出想法，然后，你知道，对它们展开辩论，嗯。我认为到目前为止，它在这方面运作得还算不错，嗯。现在，不喜欢真相的人不会喜欢那些，或者如果他们想操纵事情，他们也不会喜欢它。但仅仅，但仅仅几年前，你还是一个，嗯，生产

电动汽车的人，现在你，你知道，通过星链，你已经产生了一些，你知道，我的意思是，在乌克兰产生了一些重大影响，呃，而通过Twitter，你又卷入了，呃，你知道，巴西、印度、土耳其的一些问题，嗯，你知道，你正成为一股真正的地缘政治力量，而且是一股非常重要的力量。你怎样，你怎样看待这件事？嗯，就像我说的，我真的，我在努力采取一系列能最大限度提高未来变好的概率的行动，嗯。我的意思是，我们必须让文明尽可能持续向前、向上发展，并且，嗯，努力把出现的文明威胁降到最低，嗯。你知道，如果文明崩溃了，我们，我们，我们就无法到达火星，那不会发生。所以，嗯，你知道，我们必须，我们必须让，嗯，让文明继续前进，嗯，而且

我认为，我们应该把我们的文明视为比我们想象中脆弱得多的东西，我们有点想当然地认为，哦，它会永远存在，但实际上，如果你研究历史，就会意识到那里有兴起，你知道，文明有兴衰，嗯，我是说，我当时，我当时在深入阅读古代萨马里安人的资料，嗯，可以说他们是第一个文明，如果你把文明定义为文字之类的东西，你知道，他们是最早发展出文字的，嗯，而且，呃，但最终他们灭亡了，他们消失了。所以，然后再也没有任何人能读懂那些文字了，而且，而且他们，他们就作为一个文明逐渐消逝了，嗯，但在他们那个时代，他们相当令人钦佩，古埃及人也是一样，嗯，而且，呃，你知道，有点一个接着一个，呃，古代

希腊人曾拥有它，希腊曾有过自己的时代，呃，你知道，中国和印度曾经、将会拥有令人难以置信地印象深刻的人口，但在，呃，中国和印度文明跨越那些、那些、那些漫长年代的过程中，也有过 EV 和流动，你知道，blenn 也是，嗯，所以，你知道，我、我想我只是在努力采取这一系列的步骤，来扩大，呃，意识的范围和规模，那、那就是我在努力做的事。并不是、并不是说我想在政治天平上压一根拇指，或者做任何类似的事，嗯，但我、我想我是在努力让政治意愿朝人民希望它去的方向［音乐］发展。你、你提到这里有一些，嗯，一些，呃、呃，非常聪明的人，嗯，现在稍微转到 Copa 文化，你在你的、你的

公司里管理着许多天才，你认为管理真正聪明的人，关键是什么？我不、我不认为是我在管理聪明人，他们会管理自己。嗯，我、我想，好吧，我想对于真正聪明的人，你知道，我其实不会把这看作是在管理他们。我认为，如果某个人非常聪明而且有才华，他们随时都可以去任何地方、做任何事。比如，他们、他们、他们不必和我一起工作，他们可以去任何地方。所以我、我其实只是说，你看，这就是、就是我们追求的目标，这就是我们努力要实现的事情，你是否认同这个目标？如果认同，那我们就努力把它完成。嗯，并且，嗯，你知道，一路上提供我的意见，偶尔我会说，你看，各位，你们在、在这件事上就是得相信我，我们必须做这件事，而且如果

结果证明这是个糟糕的决定，你、我们以后都可以拿这件事怪我。但你对细节有着不可思议的眼光，对吧？我的意思是，当我们读那本 is 书时，嗯，很明显，你，我的意思是，你确实非常、非常深入细节，而且知道自己在说什么。那么你如何、你如何在对某些领域的这种，嗯，微观管理与把其他领域委派出去之间取得平衡？我不会、我不会称之为微观管理，嗯，那只是在坚持关注细节，如果你想制造一款完美的产品，就必须关注、关、关注细节，这是至关重要的。嗯，而且实际上我还没读过艾萨康那本书。你应该读，实际上非常好，我很喜欢。好吧，我、我问过沃尔特·艾萨康我是否应该读，他说我不应该，嗯，所以、所以然后他

说我不应该读，好吧，那我就、我就从书里问你一些问题。他们，你，他谈到，你知道，你的那种硬核和超级硬核文化。什么是超级硬核文化？我想就是工作，我的意思是，就是工作文化，对吧？我的意思是，多么、多么，我的意思是，超级努力工作，到底要多努力？好吧，当事情变得非常紧张时，你基本上就是醒着的每个小时都在工作。那你、那你能这样做多久？我这样做过，好吧，有时连续做了大概几年。它会、它会对你造成什么影响？真的，那很痛苦，嗯，而且醒着的每个小时，也许这有些夸张，因为显然还是有几个小时，嗯，是和朋友、家人以及处理其他关键事情在一起，嗯，但每周工作100小时会是，我、我做过

许多、许多段每周工作100小时的时期，是真正的每周100小时，嗯，大致每天睡6小时，嗯，我不建议这样做。这不是，那是应急状态，你知道，并不是，呃，一直如此。嗯，你知道，在 Tesla 非常困难的时期，我不得不这样做；而且在我早期一些初创企业刚开始时，我也这样做过，那时我根本不会离开办公室，我就睡在办公桌下面，每周工作7天。嗯，有时候，为了成功，或者、或者避免失败，这是必要的。嗯，但、但是你，你喜欢处在这种危机模式中吗？不，我不喜欢，糟透了。好吧，不，我、我不想待在那里，那很痛苦，但有时候它就是成功与［音乐］失败之间的区别。当你做决定时，速度有多重要？他刚刚给了我一个

想法，就是，嗯，我要邀请，呃，阿尔·亚历山大·R法官，呃，来做一期 Spaces，然后他可以解释为什么我正在做的事很糟糕，而且、而且、而且也许他是对的。我挑战、我挑战他来一场 spacers。听起来不错，是的。但说到你做、当你、当你做决定时，速度有多、多重要？你如何、你如何在分析与你的 gutfield 之间取得平衡？我认为，最好、最好的进攻和防守就是速度。如果你想想 SR71 黑鸟侦察机这类东西，它实际上几乎没有任何防御手段，除了加速，而它一次都没有被击落过。好像有超过3,000枚导弹射向 SR71 黑鸟，没有一枚击中，而、而它实际所做的就是飞得更快。所以，速度的力量作为一个竞争维度，呃，被低估了。是不是

因为，嗯，你知道，SpaceX 的经历一直如此成功，是因为你们作为一个组织一直精干、高效而且迅速？我认为速度、速度，呃，肯定是一个因素。现在我应该说，在公司的情况下，你、你需要成为一个向量，而不是一个缩放器，所以不能只是，你需要沿着正确的方向高速前进。当然。那么我能不能就，所以，没有一家公司会一直朝着正确的方向前进，你必须像制导导弹一样进行航向修正，你要进行航向修正，嗯，而且，呃，但就 SpaceX 而言，就像，好吧，我们的目标是把人类扩展到地球之外，嗯，而我们甚至不知道该如何正确地表述这个问题。比如，什么、什么，我们知道那是总体目标，嗯，我们不知道要用什么 pent

或者原材料会是什么，或者火箭会如何制造、会如何设计、真正重要的是什么。嗯，而且，呃，你知道，比如，从我们的猎鹰架构，也就是，嗯，使用精炼航空燃料和液氧，嗯，采用，嗯，开式循环燃气发生器架构的发动机，转向、转向星舰，也就是采用，呃，液态甲烷、液氧，嗯、呃，推进剂，呃，使用分级燃烧式超高压发动机，嗯，那、那、那、那是一次重大的架构变化。嗯，但我们并不知道我们、我们需要进行那次架构变化，直到我们已经在这条路上走了很远，大约走到一半时。我们花了大约10年才弄清楚那甚至是不是正确的架构。现在我们确信它是。嗯，只是，嗯，我们当时在，嗯、呃，风险承担和

诸如此类的事情上，我认为 SpaceX 是我所知道的，我们称之为妥善失败的最佳例子之一，对吧，也就是从错误中学习并继续前进。嗯，总体而言，你如何、你如何看待错误？好吧，我的意思是，哪些、哪些错误你能容忍，哪些不能容忍？好吧，我、我、我想我其实不会那样看待它。呃，你知道，SpaceX 的前3次飞行失败了，嗯，第4次成功了，而如果、如果第4次没有成功，我们就会破产，我们就一分钱都不剩了。所以当时真的是险之又险。嗯，但从那以后，太空表现得非常好。现在，猎鹰9，你知道，敲敲木头，是世界上最可靠的火箭，嗯，现在大约每，嗯，2到3天发射一次。嗯，关于风险的最后一个问题，你不愿承担哪些类型

的风险？呃，好吧，我、我认为，就、就风险而言，你不、你不想承担这样的风险，也就是如果、如果，只有在绝对必要的情况下，你才会想承担押上公司的风险。所以有过几次，比如说 Tesla 的 T，我们、我们根本别无选择，只能 V 公司，因为如果、如果我们在、如果我们正在实施一个规模比过去的项目大一个数量级的新车型项目，那么我们就是、我们就是明确无疑地押上了公司，因为新车型将占产量的90%。所以，从，呃，最初的 Roadster 到 Model S，最初的 Roadster 每年只有，你知道，大约600、6、700辆，然后 Model S 是每年20,000辆，而，嗯，然后 Model 3 大约是、大约是每年50万辆

嗯，Model Y 每年超过100万辆，所以这些都是押上公司的车型，但我们之所以能做例如 Cybertruck 这种有点激进的全新设计，是因为它不是一个押上公司的决定，所以我当时就想，好吧，听着，我们试点东西吧，我想试点完全疯狂的东西，呃，就像《银翼杀手》会开什么卡车，嗯，不过当你要开上路时，是的，我觉得它对 Ms 来说会很完美，嗯，但就像我们可以尝试某种有一定可能人们不会喜欢的东西，嗯，但它很激进、很新，而且在美学上、在美学上它并非沿袭其他设计，它看起来不像路上的任何其他东西，嗯，而其他各种皮卡看起来都像是彼此模糊的仿制品。

嗯，我们承担得起失败的风险，然后说，像是，你知道，嗯，我们试过了，你知道，我们试着做些有趣的东西，但但实际上，顺便说一下，Cybertruck 现在表现得很好，嗯，所以，呃，但我认为对创新而言很重要的一点是，你确实要接受失败，就像，就像这是必然的，你必须始终审视一个组织的激励结构，然后问，嗯，你知道，这个，这个组织是否恰当地激励了创新，嗯，而且如果你进行创新，你就必然会进入未知领域，所以会有一些错误，会有一些失败，嗯，而你必须，就像，就像实际上，就像对于，对于 SpaceX，呃，火箭发动机开发，我一直告诉团队，听着。

如果我们不是偶尔在试验台上炸掉一台发动机，那我们就是还不够努力，你知道，嗯，绝对如此，绝对如此，P 有多重要，研究和博士之类的东西有多重要，我好像在某处看到你说，你认为大多数博士都没用。嗯，我认为大多数博士论文都没用，而我认为这实际上客观上是事实。如果你看看有多少博士，你看看每年总共培养出多少博士，再看看这些论文中有多少真正被用于任何事情，是的，嗯，那么客观而言，大多数博士 TCS 的效用都非常低，或许是零，嗯，因为没人使用它们，嗯，或者说偶尔你会得到某个非常出色的成果，但这相当[音乐]罕见。也许有些更有用的东西，嗯，在那本你还没有……的书里。

读过，呃，里面谈到你对，呃，游戏的热爱，尤其是像 stret IC ability 游戏，而我对此想了很多，嗯，你从这些游戏中学到了什么，这些学习和智慧在你规划自己的公司时有没有帮助？是的，我，很难确切说我从电子游戏中学到了什么，除了我确实喜欢玩电子游戏。如果我想把注意力从工作上移开，我通常会玩一款非常难的电子游戏。比如，比如哪一款？嗯，这些年来有过很多很多不同的电子游戏，嗯，所以你知道，我还是个小孩时，我就喜欢，你知道，Pong 和小坦克游戏之类的，嗯，而且，但如果你拿一款例如《文明》这样的游戏来说，它其实相当不错，嗯，它会告诉你怎样，怎样。

文明是如何形成的，比如我记得，我记得玩最初版的《文明》，里面有科技树，以及你如何发明不同的东西，你会，比如发明识字，呃，你知道，发明民主，发明枪、火药，所有所有这些东西，就像，然后你开始意识到，哦，哇，技术是有阶段的，比如你不能，嗯，你知道，如果没有识字，你实际上就无法实现民主，嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，所以存在这些、这些技术发展阶段，或者思想阶段，呃，你知道，那、那对公司来说是一个有帮助的框架，嗯，我想在、在、在，比如，就像我说的，近些年有一款我玩过的游戏，嗯，实际上是在瑞典开发的，叫作《Polytopia》，它实际上是一款相当不错的游戏，嗯。

比如很多人喜欢下国际象棋，但我认为国际象棋并不是一种、并不是一种很好的，嗯，从国际象棋到现实世界并没有多少迁移学习，因为在国际象棋中，你只有64个格子，呃，它是一场预设好的战斗，每次都是同样的棋子，没有地形差异，呃，没有科技树，呃，没有战争迷雾，嗯，但比如像《Polytopia》这样的游戏就具备所有这些元素，呃，随机生成地形，呃，你知道，根据地形类型不同，进攻和防御加成也不同，嗯，我想你有16个部落，每个部落都有不同的能力，嗯，你有一、一、一棵科技树，可以选择以不同方式发展，呃，当然还有战争迷雾，嗯，所以我认为那要更加、更加接近现实。是的，是的，嗯。

所以我认为《Politopia》，我的意思是，我、我有一阵子在玩《暗黑破坏神》，呃，相当有趣，嗯，《暗黑破坏神》到了高等级会变得非常复杂，他、你可以称它为像是一个附带游戏的电子表格，嗯，所以、所以那就是、那就是，而且我曾短暂地，在大约1天里，拿到了这个“avire of zir”的世界纪录，是在一个4人团队中，呃，通关最难的等级，嗯，这对于一个大概53岁的人来说，你知道，还不错，基本上很快就要53岁了，嗯，它仍然带有一些，呃，快速反应元素，而且，嗯，在有快速反应元素的游戏中很难击败孩子们，嗯，不过是的，我喜欢，呃，如果你能完全沉浸在一款游戏中，我觉得这些游戏很有意思。这里还有最后几个问题，嗯，如你所知，我们是大股东，而且，呃，通过我们的投资赚了很、多钱［笑声］。

哦，好的，我在这里能听到你了，好的，很好，声音不错，可以开始了，抱歉，我能你，我想所有人都能听到我，让我们看看，如果你们能听到我就竖起大拇指，我们再试一次，好的，好的，声音不错，声音不错，嗯，现在，嗯，就瑞典的工会和集体谈判而言，目前的情况如何？实际上我、我认为，呃，我认为这方面的风暴已经过去了，我认为瑞典那边的情况还算不错，嗯，所以，呃，是的，我认为情况很好，嗯，是的，总体来说，是的，我对未来感觉相当不错，我的意思是，你知道，时不时会有颠簸的季度，但我认为Tesla的长期未来极其强劲，呃，比如，嗯，是的，我、我回来了，只是，所以，嗯，是的，我们上个月与、我们与你们的董事长见了面，所以我们、我们有。

一些最新情况，但对此有什么、什么看法，你为什么、为什么、为什么对集体持怀疑态度？我刚才在这里摆弄音效板，哇，你好，你好［音乐］你好，是的，我的最后一个问题，嗯，抱歉，我刚才不在，所以没听到这里的回答，但是，嗯，我们已经和、和你们的董事长谈过这个问题了，不过这里只再问最后一个问题，你希望自己留下怎样的传承？我、我不在意，呃，我的传承是准确还是不准确，呃，前提是我、我潜入时感觉自己为意识的未来做了正确的事，所以只是努力、努力让这个意识的 SL 尽可能长久地持续，也许更多地了解宇宙的本质，或者模拟，或者无论这是什么，所以，嗯，我有一种好奇心的哲、哲学，就是去理解。

理解宇宙，理解宇宙的本质，嗯，甚至理解该问什么问题，有点像那样。我会说，我信奉道格拉斯·亚当斯的“银河系的赫斯小伙子”哲学流派，也就是我们正试图理解，对于宇宙这个答案，该问什么问题。好的，我认为这是个很适合结束的地方，嗯，可以肯定的是，如果没有你，这颗星球上的生活会无聊得多。我、我很高兴把它稍微弄起来了一点。完全同意。好了，很高兴和你交谈，再见，保重。好，再见，谢谢［音乐］再见。

[Music] hi everyone and big thanks for taking the time on you know we've been trying to get you on the podcast since uh we started it two years ago so we are super pleased that we that we have you on and indeed on your xplatform how cool yeah uh it's pretty cool yeah I mean you have like lots of people from all around the world uh simultaneously do effectively a realtime podcast and uh it works pretty well very good well we have so much to talk about [Music] uh love to kick off with with AI um now what's your take on where we are in the AI race just now wow that's a long answer um there's there's so much happening in AI is the fastest advancing technology that I've ever seen of any kind and I've seen a lot of Technology um you know barely a week goes

by with without some new announcement so uh and if you look at the amount of uh AI Hardware the computers coming online that are dedicated to AI that is increasing what looks like at least by a factor of 10 every year if not every six to n months so when you combine the hardware um Coming online really order of magnitude increase every you know call at least every 9 months um and uh many many software breakthroughs uh if you look at that that curve it looks insane so I think we'll um my my my guess is that we we'll have ai that is smarter than any any one human probably to around the end of next year um and then AI the total amount of sort of sentient compute of AI I think will probably exceed all humans in 5 years what what is the what is the race about

just now is it algorithms is it people is it computing power what what is it about just now is it the supply of chips just what is it yeah last year it was uh chip constraint um and the hardware deployment if you break it down into the three areas of people um data and hardware and starting with Hardware last year it was about a shift Supply people could not get enough um in video chips particularly um this year it's starting to transition to a voltage Transformer Supply so actually getting enough voltage Transformers uh put in place so my sort of very Niche joke is Transformers for Transformers because a lot of the AI That's run is called a Transformer so you need Transformers to run Transformers um and then next in the if you look out a year or two

or certainly three years um it's just electricity availability so that's those those constraints in the hardware side um so many of the smart world's smartest people are are doing AI people that would have done physics before in fact or had have done physics for example have moved into AI because it's just the fastest moving field so we're seeing a lot of the best talents a lot of the smartest humans going into Ai and then uh we see along with that algorithmic breakthroughs um and then then you start hitting the the wall with the the data problem um so the you know you can fit all books ever written um just the text the the text in compressed form uh on one hard drive or call one one computer um so when you when you're looking at like so called tokens

to train on yeah uh and you you still think of like all the books ever written in every in in all languages by All Humans sounds like a lot certainly it's far more than any one human could could ever read um it actually is a small it's a small number of train training tokens it's just not enough so then you you start having to look at all the videos of I created um you know all the podcasts all the everything um and and you start even running out of data there well hopefully they hopefully they will include this podcast uh that definitely will include this podcast what's the biggest challenge you have with uh with xai well xai is still relatively new so it's not um you know uh like the limiting factor right now is just training our Gro version 2 model

which should be do we think better than GPD 4 um and that's we're hoping to complete that in May so that's that's training right now so it's just really we're just trying to get enough gpus online to train it fast enough to get that done in May um which I think probably will happen um and then and and that's with uh roughly 20,000 h100s uh and and doing I think very efficient training then the next step would be for GR 3 which would be I guess G55 or Beyond uh would you know requires uh 100,000 Nvidia h100s training coherently so that's you know a half order of magnitude basically more training um and then you really start to have running into this data problem where you you have to either create synthetic data or use real world video those the the two

sources of kind of like unlimited data are synthetic data and real world video which I should say Tesla has a pretty big advantage in real world video um Tesla has by far the most real world video of anyone yeah you've got a huge Library there so when do you think so when do you think we'll see proper AGI well it depends on how you define AGI if you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human I think it's probably end of next year like like within two years um but but that's that there's still there's still a pretty big leap beyond that to say smarter than the the machine augmented human Collective so like is it smarter than all humans working together uh who are also using computers to augment their output and that that I think is probably five years

away one one way to look at it is is is to try to assess um like roughly what is the ratio of digital to biological compute last question on um on AI any new thoughts on regulation and um how it should be structured well I I think we probably do need some sort of regulatory authority to look at the safety of AI um just as we have regulatory authorities and other Arenas to um you know o oversee aircraft and the safety of aircraft and cars and and other things you know medication so uh now the rate at which AI is progressing is is fast is faster than probably any regulatory agency can keep up with um but but I do have a comment on what I think is very important before achieving safe AI which is that uh it's very important to train the AI to be as truthful

as possible um and not to uh yeah just to be as truthful as possible um I think you can get some very dangerous things when you program an AI to be politically correct think that things that may seem uh relatively innocuous now but will not be so in in the future if AI has immense power you can take the Google Gemini example where it it refused to publish to produce a picture of George Washington as a white man and and any in fact any historical figure would automatically be made diverse um because it's been programmed to insist on diversity which sounds you know perhaps okay at first but not if the AI has so much power that it can actually enforce diversity and decide there's too many of one kind of people or too many of one sex and kill off just just

kill off enough until the the diversity number is is what it's programmed to believe is correct but don't you think this will be sorted out in the next version no no they'll make it more subtle okay and less obvious but it will still be there okay well we'll see but where where is China where do you where is China now in I relative to the US um I I don't know exactly what China is uh except there are a lot of very smart people in China um and they they won't be they won't be far behind the rest of the world or far behind the US um I mean the ai ai right now is very concentrated in San Francisco and London um and then you know there's there's you know a lot happening in in China but I I'm I don't have insight into what they're doing uh except that they

I'm confident they will not be f behind uh what is developed in the west yeah um so but but but mark my words the if if uh if we do not program an AI to be as truthful as possible that that is where it will go arai that is where the danger lies yeah mov moving T here moving to to Tesla um is is the EV conversion now going slower than you had expected just where is the speed of conversion now relative to your expectations I think it's going quite fast actually especially Norway um absolutely well it's pretty much all there is is your your Teslas yeah there's a lot of Teslas in Norway it's crazy thanks i' once again like to thank Norway for the support of electric vehicles um so much appreciated time so I think it's we will the the that that electric that

all vehicles will go fully electric uh it's only a matter of time um that includes aircraft ultimately and boats um obviously trains the only thing that is ironically difficult to well you can't really make it electric is Rockets because you need you can't get away from um having to expel Mass uh you sort of Newton's third law um but but all cars will be Electric it's only matter of time and we'll look back on combustion cause in the same way that we look at back on uh steam engines um that that I was it was inevitable that there would be internal combustion cars and and it's just as inevitable that o cost will go electric um and um there will be some e and you know so like it going to be a completely straight up line there will be some uh e and flow

in how how far electric car is going but that but the ultimate um victory of electric cars is inevitable um and and I think the sooner we get there the better yeah how do you see the Chinese competition here now we generally find that the companies in China are the most competitive in the world and certainly in uh electric vehicles or cars in general the Chinese car companies are by far the most competitive um yeah that's where where we find the most toughest toughest compet competitive challenges that they make great cars and they work very hard so when you ride in one of the Chinese cars what do you think I mean you're an engineer you know what about it what do you what do you think I haven't R I have not ridden in one lately but uh because they're

not all available here you know in the US or very few are available in the US um some are available in Europe um but from what my team tells me there are very [Music] good moving moving out out in space um what what would it take to be self-sufficient at Mars to be self-sufficient in Mars it's really about the the total tonnage that is delivered to the surface of Mars um so you can say like well um I I think it's probably on the order of a million tons maybe it maybe more but somewhere between probably a million tons and 10 million tons are needed to make Mars self-sufficient and how many Rockets is that well I gave a presentation on this recently if people look at my my recent uh SpaceX talk but if you if you have U really uh if you have 100 tons per

flight you need 10,000 flights to get to a million million tons um and that's 100 tons landed to the surface of Mars so in order to get 100 tons land to the surface of Mars you need 500 five times that number in Earth orbit um so we do a lot of orbital refilling um so launching sort of uh Rockets uh tanker ships over and over again that that would replenish the propellant of the ships that would go to Mars um and then youd need a on roughly on order of 10,000 of them to get to a million tons um and uh but we we plan to do that that that's uh that's we think we can get that done within 20 years really so and when do you think so when do you think we'll be there for the first time first first uh well the first Starship that will land on Mars which obviously

would not not have people at first I think it's probably within about 5 years um and then it would probably launch several ships and just confirm that they can land okay on Mars um we'll also be doing the moon simultaneously with that so uh go taking well I think I think we'll get people back to the Moon I should say within 5 years and we'll get uh uncrewed ships landed on Ms within 5 years and and then we be building up the production rate um and improving the design of the booster in the ship so um so in the first people on Mars I think within seven years or so seven to nine years um and from from there we need to rapidly increase we need massive numbers of shifts going and Earth and Mars Only are in the same quadrant of the solar system roughly for

six months every two years or at least it's only possible to really transfer efficiently um from Earth to Mars I say every six months but really there's about there's a couple months where where it's ideal every 26 months um so every two years that you would see a basically a fleet depart Mars and I think it be quite a spectacular thing to see a thousand ships depart from Mars all at once like Battle Star Galactica what kind of new technology do we need before we'll be self-sufficient there actually I think we have all the tech we already know all the technology that's necessary for that it just needs we just need to build so no new physics is needed for this why is it so important for you I think it's important for Consciousness in general um so if if

we wish to maximize the lifespan of Consciousness then being a multipled species will result in a much longer uh existence of Consciousness Consciousness than if we're on one planet if we're on one planet we're simply biting our time until there's eventually a Calamity it could be soon it could be a long time but eventually something will happen it could be you a global Therman nuclear war it could be simply That civilization merely subsides our civilization may not die with a bang it may die with a whimper just just gradually falling into obsolescence but if we're multiplet species then we've got two planets and and they can support each other um and we can go beyond two planets ultimately to the moons of Jupiter to the to the uh um Beyond to the the

outer parts of the solar system and ultimately to other star systems so this tiny this tiny candle of Consciousness that we have in this vast Darkness can be extended um and Amplified and we're just far more likely to uh survive as for for Consciousness to survive if we are multiplet species you don't think it' be better to use all these resources and try to sort out Earth well just to put this into perspective the amount of resources I'm talking about for making life multiplanetary would be less than 1% of all resources on Earth so really you can think of it as resource allocation do you think it's worth spending half a percent of Earth Resources to ensure uh that we have redundancy in Consciousness and that we extend Consciousness Beyond Mars to other

planets to to Mars and other planets and ultimately other star systems um and then also take into account the fact that there are certain inevit there are certain things we simply cannot avoid on Earth um like is it within your power of mind to stop World War I I don't think so no if it happens um and if we have theral Warfare our technology level will drop to the stern age um and we may never survive and then there are we maybe get may get hit like by a comet like the dinosaurs and um you know if the dinosaurs had spaceships they they'll probably still be around um so and then if if you wait long enough the Earth the the sun will continue to expand and eventually engulf Earth and destroy it and destroy all life so just to give it amount a certain amount

of time no matter what you do on Earth no matter how careful you are um Earth will life all life on Earth will die that it will happen is a [Music] certainty on a slightly less gloomy note uh X Twitter yeah um what is your vision now what do you how do you see the the vision of x i goal of X is to be the best source of Truth on the internet um and I think we're making a good you know good progress there and I mean this it's going to be like I call the everything app like if anything you want to do you can do on the xplatform um whether it's text audio video uh payments Financial stuff um Communications of all kinds um and then but but then also where there is publicly disseminated information is to be the best source of Truth um and I think it I think

it already is that um now people may say oh there's some piece of misinformation disinformation I say yes but look look at the replies the reply is correct that misinformation and look at Community notes and the and how good the batting average of community notes is it's extremely good it's by far the best factchecking system on the internet um so and and a lot of people still labor under the illusion that the the the Legacy newspapers that they read are actually true there's so much nonsense in them I mean ni how many times when do you read an article in a newspaper where you know the circumstances of what that article is and how often is it spot on no of course it's uh normally no no of course we all know it's normally wrong but but how do you look

not sure but how how do you look at the situation now for instance with with Russia uh you know the work Russia does in Germany with fake accounts on it's pretty pretty huge uh activity right I mean we don't see a lot of Russian it to be frank um on the system um so we we see very little um we do we do see a lot of lot of attempts to influence things but they seem to be coming from from the West not from from Russia right what about um what about things like the latest developments in in Brazil and so on yeah sure yeah so the the uh we we kept getting these demands from um uh this uh Judge Alexander um that's his that's his name on Twitter Alexander um and there would be to suspend accounts um immediately we're given typically two hours to suspend an

account or face massive fines um and the the final sto we were were being given given demands to suspend sitting sitting members of the parliament and major journalists and moreover we could not tell them that it this was at the beest of uh Alexander Morales we had to pretend that it was due to our rules of service and that was the final straw and we said no now um when you when you bought Twitter um now renamed X did you expect that you would end up in these type of situations so it's is all unexpected well I knew it wouldn't be just a total B of roses um you know and it's fing I [Laughter] wouldn't um no I mean I thought it would be since we're just like rigorously trying to pursue the the the goal of being the most accurate and truthful place in the

internet and that that doesn't mean that what is said is always true or accurate but is it is perhaps another way to frame it is as the least inaccurate place on the internet do you do you see clear do you secretly think this is a bit fun it's fun yeah yeah it's fun at times it's stressful at times and it's fun at times um but overall we're trying to serve the people of Earth um and and and this is sort of an S sort of maybe an esic way of viewing it but um to try to be kind of like the the group consciousness of Earth so you can think of like if each person is like a neuron contributing to like the collective brain of Earth and you want to try to minimize the noise and maximize the signal of every neuron that's connected to the the X Network that that's

basically what what is what is the collective will of of humanity and and how and and and how to yeah just serve the collective will of humanity and so serve the greater good that that's our goal um now there there's definitely going to be people who want to manipulate that information and so we have to fight that and try to have uh you know be it be the most accurate place as part to the best of our ability and have it be kind of a Marketplace of ideas where people can propose ideas and you know debate them and um I think so far it's working reasonably well in that regard um now people that don't like the truth will not like those or if they want to manipulate things they will not like it but only but only a few years ago you were you were a guy um producing

electric vehicles now you are you know through starlink you've had some you know I mean some big impact in in Ukraine uh with Twitter you are kind of into some issues in uh you know Brazil India Turkey um you know you're becoming like a real geopolitical force and a really important one how do you how do you look at that well like I said I'm really I'm trying to take the set of actions that maximize the probability that the future is good um I mean we have to keep civilization going onward and upward as much as possible and um and try to minimize the civilizational threats that occur um you know we we we can't get to Mars if civilization collapses it's not going to happen so um you know we've got to we've got to keep um keep civilization going um and

I think we should view our civilization as being much more fragile than we think we kind of take for granted oh it's always going to be there but actually if you study history you realize that there Rise you know there's rise and fall civilization um I mean I was I was reading in depth about the ancient samarians um who were arguably the first civilization if you call civilization like writing and stuff you know they were the first to develop writing um and uh but eventually they died out and they were gone so and then nobody could read the writing at all and and they they just faded out as a civilization um but they're pretty impressive in their time and the ancient Egyptians the same thing um and uh you know one sort of one after another uh ancient

Greek had it Greece had its day uh you know China and India had will have incredibly impressed populations but there's been EVs and flows in the uh CH China and Indian civilizations over the the the aons you know the blenn as well um so you know I I guess I'm just trying to take this this set of the steps that um increase uh the scope and scale of Consciousness that's that's what I'm trying to do it's not it's not that I'm trying to have a put a political thumb on the scale or anything like that um but I I think I'm trying to have the political will go where the people want it to [Music] go you you mentioned some um some uh uh really smart people here and um kind of just moving t a bit here to Copa culture now you manage a lot of geniuses in your in your

companies what is the key to manage really smart people you think I don't I don't think I manage smart people they manage themselves um I I think well I guess with really smart people you know I don't really think of of it like managing them I think that if somebody's very smart and talented they they can go anywhere and do anything anytime like if they they they don't have to work with me they could go anywhere so I I really just say like look this is the the goal we're after and this is what we're trying to achieve and do you agree with this goal and if you do then let's try to get it done um and um you know provide my opinion along the way and once in a while I'll say look guys you just got to trust me on on this one we got to do this thing and if

it turns out to be a bad decision you we can can all hold that against me in the future but you have an incredible eye for detail right I mean when we read the is book um it's pretty clear that you I mean you really are are deep into detail and know what you talk about so how do you how do you balance this um kind of micromanagement of some areas and then delegate other I wouldn't I wouldn't call it micromanagement um it's just insisting on atttention to detail that um if you're trying to make a perfect product you must have attention to attent attention to details essential um and I haven't actually read the isacon book you should it's very good actually I Lov it well I I asked Walter isacon if I should read it and he said I shouldn't um so so then he

said I shouldn't read it so okay well I'll I'll ask you some questions from the book then they you he talks about you know you the kind of the hardcore and Ultra Hardcore culture what is an Ultra Hardcore culture I guess it's work I mean it's working culture right I mean how how I mean Ultra hard work how hard is that well when things get really intense you're basically just working every waking hour and how and how long can you do that for I've done that for well continuously for sometimes like a few years what does it what does it du to you it really it's pain um and and every waking hour maybe it's an exaggeration because there are a few hours um obviously with friends and family and and critical other things um but 100 hour weeks would be I I've done

many many stretches of 100 hour weeks like true 100 hour weeks um where roughly six hours per day is sleeping um I would not recommend that this is not that's for emergencies you know it's not uh all the time um you know during very difficult times at Tesla I've had to do that and sometimes at the beginning of my earlier start offs I did that where I just wouldn't leave the office I would just sleep under my desk and just work seven days a week um sometimes it's necessary for success or or to avoid failure um but but do you you do you enjoy being in this crisis mode no I don't it sucks okay no I I don't want to be there it's pain but sometimes it's the between success and [Music] failure when you make decisions how important is speed he just gave me an

idea which is um I'm GNA invite the uh Judge Al Alexander R uh to do a spaces and then he can explain why what I'm doing is bad and and and maybe he's right I challenge I challenge him to a spacers sounds good yeah but what about when you make when you when you make decisions how how important is speed and how do you how do you balance analysis with your gutfield I think the the the best offense and defense is speed if you think of something like the SR71 Blackbird it really had almost no defenses except accelerate and it was never shut down even once like I think over 3,000 missiles were shot at the SR71 blackb and non hit and and really what it did was just go faster so the the power of speed is uh underappreciated as a competitive Dimension um is that

why um you know Space X expenence has been so successful because you've been mean and lean as an organization and fast think speed speed is uh definitely a factor now I should say you want to go in the case of a company you you need to be a vector not a scaler so it can't be you need to go at high speed in the right direction sure so can I just so and no company's going to be going in the right direction all the time you have to do course Corrections like a guided missile you qued course Corrections um and uh but in the case of SpaceX it's like okay our goal is to extend Humanity beyond Earth um and we didn't even know how to even frame the question correctly like what what which knew that that was the General goal um we didn't know what pent we' use

or what the raw materials would be or for the how would the rocket be built how would it be designed what's actually important um and uh you know so for example going from our Falcon architecture which is um uses refined jet fuel and liquid oxygen um in a um open cycle gas generator architecture engine to a to Starship which is a uh liquid methane liquid oxygen um uh propellant uh in a staged combustion very high pressure engine um that that that's that's a big architectural change um but we didn't know that we we needed to make that architectural change until we're pretty far down the road like about halfway took us about 10 years to figure out that was even the right architecture now we're confident it is um just um we were on um uh risk- taking and

so on I think SpaceX is one of the best example I know about uh what we call failing well right learning from mistakes and moving on um what generally how do you how do you look at mistakes well I mean which which ones do you tolerate and which ones don't you tolerate well I I I think I don't really think of that way uh you know the first three flights of SpaceX failed um the fourth one succeeded and if if the fourth one had not succeeded we would have gone bankrupt we would have had no money left so it was a very close call um but since then space has done very well it's now the the Falcon 9 you know knock on wood is the most reliable rocket in the world um and launches about every um two to three days now um last question on risk what are the types

of risk you would not want to take uh well I I think in in terms of risks you don't you you don't want to take risks that where if if you only want to take bet the company risks if they're absolutely necessary so there have been a few times where saying the T with Tesla we we just had no choice but to V the company because if if we're in if we're doing a new vehicle program that is uh in order of magnitude larger than the past one then we're by we're just unequivocally betting the company because the new vehicle would be 90% of production so going from uh the original Roadster to the model S original Roadster was only you know about 600 6 700 per year then Model S was 20,000 per year and um and then model 3 is sort of half sort of half a million per year

um model y over a million per year so these are all bet the company vehicles but the the the reason we could do for example a cyber truck which was kind of a a radical new design was because it wasn't a bet the company decision so I was like okay look let's try something I want to try something totally crazy uh it's like what what truck would Blade Runner Drive um except the when you're going to drive on was yeah I think it would be perfect for Ms um but like we could try something that where there's some chance that people might not like it um but it's it's radical and new and it's aesthetically aesthetically it's not derivative it doesn't look anything else on the road um whereas all the other sort of pickup trucks look like vague copies of one another

um they we could afford to take a chance on failure and say like and talk it up to you know well we tried you know we try to do something interesting but but actually by the way cyber truck's doing great um so uh but one of the things that I think is important for Innovation is that you do accept failure like like necessarily you have to always look at the incentive structure of an organization and say um you know is is is that is that organization properly incenting Innovation um and in with if you do Innovation you're necessarily going to Uncharted Territory so they going to be some mistakes they're going to be some failures um and you have you have to like like actually like for for SpaceX uh rocket engine development like I keep telling the team look

if we're not occasionally blowing up an engine on the test stand we're not trying hard enough you know um absolutely absolutely how important are the P how important is research and phds and that kind of stuff think I've said seen somewhere you you think most phds are useless well I think most PhD thesis are useless which I think is actually objectively true if you look at how many PhD you look at all how many phds are created every year and how many of those papers are actually used in anything yeah um then objectively most PhD TCS are have very low utility or maybe zero um because nobody uses them um or so once in a while you get something that is spectacular but it's pretty [Music] rare perhaps something more useful um is in the book that you haven't

read uh talks about your love for uh gaming in particular like stret IC ability gaming and I've been thinking quite a lot about it um what have you learned from from those games and have have that learning and wisdom been helpful when you have been planning your companies yeah I it's hard to say exactly what I've learned from video games except that I I do like playing video games as if I want to take my mind off work I'll typically play a very hard video game such such as which one well over the years it's been many many different video games um so you know when I was a little kid I was like you know pong and little tank games and things and um and but if you take a game like for example civilization it's actually quite a good um it tells you how how

civilizations are formed like I remember I remember playing the original civilization with the technology tree and and how you invent different things you'd like invent literacy and uh you know invent democracy and invent gun gunpowder all all these things that like and you start to realize oh wow there's there are stages to technology like you can't um you know you can't actually get to democracy without literacy um and um you know so there's these these stages of of Technology development or stages of ideas that uh you know that's that's a helpful framework for a company um and I guess in in in like like I say in recent years there there's a game I played that was um actually developed in Sweden called polyopia which is actually quite a good game um

like a lot of people like playing chess but I think chess is not a not a great um there's not a lot of transfer learning from chess to the real world because in chess you've got only 64 squares uh it's a setpiece battle same pieces every time there are no terrain differences uh there's no technology tree uh there's no fog of War um but say a game like polyopia has all of those things uh random terrain generation uh you know the differences in attack and defense bonuses depending on what type of terrain um you've got 16 tribes I think each with different abilities um you've got a a a technology tree that you can choose to develop in different ways uh and you've got of course fog of War um so that I think is much more much closer to reality yeah yeah um

so I think politopia I mean I I was I was playing Diablo uh for a while pretty fun um Diablo as high levels gets very complicated they you could call it like a a spreadsheet with a game attached um so so that's that's and I briefly got the the for about a day the world record in this avire of zir on on a four-person team of of clearing the the hardest level um which was you know not bad for someone who's like 53 basically will be 53 soon um there is still some uh twitch element to it and um it's hard to beat kids at games with a twitch element um but yeah I like uh I find these games interesting if you can be fully immersed in a game some last questions here um as you know we are big shareholders and uh made a a lot of money uh on our investment [Laughter]

o okay I can hear you here okay good sounds good good to go sorry I can you I think everyone can hear me let's see thumbs up if you can hear me let's try again okay okay sounds good sounds good um now um what is the score now of in terms of the Union in Sweden and the collective bargaining actually I I think uh I think the storm has passed on that front I think things are in reasonably good shape in Sweden um so uh yeah I think things are good um yeah overall yeah I feel pretty good about the future I mean you know there's going to be bumpy quarters from you know here and there but I think the long-term future of Tesla is extremely strong uh for example um yeah I'm I'm back on just so um yeah we met with uh we met with your chair last month so we we have

some update but any any of view on it why are you why why are you skeptical to colletive I was playing with a soundboard here wo hello hello [Music] hello yeah last question for me um sorry I didn't hear the answer here because I was out but um we have covered this with with your chair but just a last question here what do you want your legacy to be I I don't I don't mind if uh my legacy is accurate or inaccurate uh provided that I I dive feeling that I've done the right thing for the future of Consciousness so just trying to trying to have this SL of Consciousness last as long as possible and maybe understand more about the nature of the universe or simulation or whatever this is so um I have a philos philosophy of curiosity which is to understand the

understand the universe understand the nature of the universe um or even what questions to ask kind of like that I would say I would subscribe to the Douglas Adams hus guys of the Galaxy School of philosophy that we're trying to understand what questions to ask about the answer that is the universe okay I think that's a good place to end um for sure the life on this planet would have been been a lot more boring without you I'm I'm glad to it up a little totally all right well good talking bye take care now all right bye thanks [Music] bye