WorldPost：埃隆·马斯克是企业家，也是 Tesla、SpaceX 和 SolarCity 的创始人。未来几十年里，将改变我们生活的关键创新有哪些？

马斯克：除了互联网——这项让人们能够从任何地方获取知识的惊人发明——之外，还有4项。我们将转向可持续的能源生产和消费。希望人类生命能延伸到其他行星，这取决于我们在发展太空运输方面进步得有多快，以及届时我们将如何生活——如果我们设法存活下来的话。读取和编写遗传密码。还有 AI——人工智能。我们这个物种有能力完成所有这些事情。我们现在已经在着手做这些事了。

WorldPost：尽管近几十年来信息技术和生物技术取得了革命性进展，但我们乘坐的仍然或多或少是40年前的同款 747，搭乘的仍是日本人在 1960 年代率先推出、仅有小幅改进的子弹头列车。为什么迈向你所说的“第5种”交通方式——也就是你正在推广的那种“超级高铁技术”——如此困难？

马斯克：嗯，子弹头列车往往并不更好。问题在于，你会面临强劲的逆风。我读到加利福尼亚州的高铁项目——美国首个拟议中的高铁项目——以及英国的另一个项目时，感到很沮丧。在我看来，我们似乎正在技术上倒退，仿佛我们不仅从协和式客机倒退到你提到的 747，还倒退到了 DC-3。日本制造了一些相当令人印象深刻的列车，并于 1980 年代投入使用。之后，中国建成了一个更加先进的列车网络。在加利福尼亚州这样的发达经济体，我们资金充足，在我看来，我们应该思考如何超越它。这并不是要争个高下，而是基于未来将会变得更好这一立场。如果你早上醒来，认为未来会变得更好，那就是明朗的一天。否则就不是。所以，我开始思考，在遵循物理定律，或者至少是我们今天所知的物理定律的情况下，从一座城市到另一座城市最快的方式可能是什么。经过许多次迭代，我提出了“超级高铁”的构想。要让超级高铁运行起来，你需要结合一系列因素。它有点像气垫球桌、轨道炮和超音速协和式客机的结合体。它会像协和式客机一样，在低空气密度环境中高速行驶，并通过电磁方式加速，动能就是由此获得的。悬浮机制类似于气垫球桌。其中一项关键创新，是在车舱前端安装一台强力涡轮压缩机，把车舱前方的空气压缩后输送到后方。这样可以防止高压空气在前端积聚并产生阻力。这在技术上完全可行。工程师看到这个构想时会说：“哦，对，完全可行。”非工程师看到它时会说：“这太荒谬了。”我和加利福尼亚州州长杰里·布朗谈过这件事。他有点生气，给我打了电话。他说：“你为什么说我们的子弹头列车不好？”我说：“从洛杉矶到旧金山，时速只有 120 英里——人们在 I-5 公路上自己开车也能达到这个速度。”他说：“嗯，它必须绕行 150 英里，才能在贝克斯菲尔德和弗雷斯诺停车。”我说：“嗯，你这恰恰是在替我证明我的观点。对住在那些地方的人来说，它或许很棒，但如果你想快速从洛杉矶前往旧金山，那就不是了。”如果我们能在加利福尼亚州建造一条高铁，只比中国上海线路已经做到的水平高半个档次；如果我们既有从洛杉矶到旧金山的直达线路，也有站站停的慢车，那至少也算是进步。我不是说我们必须建超级高铁，否则就什么都不建。我是说，我们就应该拥有一套牛逼的交通系统。听着，我很喜欢杰里。他是个好人。他真心关心这些事情。但我确实认为，我们需要在这里拓宽眼界，把目标定得更高。

WorldPost：新加坡的一些领导人希望把新加坡建成首座“电动城市”，所有汽车都是 Tesla 这样的电动汽车。因为那里或中国的亚洲领导人更着眼于长期，所以他们有能力在建设新的巨型城市时重建基础设施的根基。你认为亚洲会成为最大的电动汽车市场吗？

马斯克：对新加坡来说，这是个很棒的主意。香港也是如此。单凭人口和经济规模，我们确实预计亚洲的销量将超过世界其他任何地区。那里更像是一种自上而下的局面。如果最高政治领导人——显然是在新加坡或中国——决定做某件事，那件事就真的会发生。而在西方，人们往往不喜欢听从领导人，即使领导人是对的。

WorldPost：“多行星文明”是你思想的核心。斯蒂芬·霍金谈到这件事时，是因为担心我们这个物种无法及时发展出足够的智慧来拯救这颗行星，所以我们最好分散风险，探索其他选择。你的出发点也是这样吗？

马斯克：我比斯蒂芬·霍金或英国皇家学会会长马丁·里斯更加乐观。他认为我们的文明很可能会在本世纪终结。我希望他是错的。我对我们的文明更加乐观。而且我确实强调“多行星”。这并不是说“让我们找到另一颗行星，但在别的什么地方”。我不太愿意使用“乌托邦”这个词。但如果你想象一下我们想要的未来，并说：“那会是一个美好的未来”，那么对我来说，你会希望拥有这样一个未来：存在一个横跨太空的文明，我们这个物种在那里探索群星。那会很棒。我的动力来自这样的立场：这种文明将是最精彩的冒险，也是真正鼓舞人心、会让生活更有趣的事情。这最能激励我。紧随其后的强大动力，是保护意识以及截至目前我们所知的人类文明。从进化的角度来看，人类意识出现的时间并不长。经过 45 亿年，一盏小灯才刚刚亮起。这种事多久会发生一次？也许相当罕见。事实上，它看起来确实相当罕见。又或者，外面其他拥有意识的存在非常善于隐藏。如果这是如此罕见的事物，那么我们就应该竭尽所能，确保它长期存续。

WorldPost：你还谈到过通过技术创造一种“更广泛的集体启蒙”，并把互联网称为“集体神经系统”。一些科学家主张，这种全球思维回路和媒体覆盖全球的范围，使某种类似于“水平基因转移”的事情成为可能。我们是否正处于“进化的进化”的边缘？

马斯克：是的，我相信是这样。我认为我们实际上已经创造出了一种超级有机体。这就像单细胞生物在没有神经系统时，通过渗透作用进行交流。在互联网和先进电信技术出现之前，交流慢得令人难以置信。你实际上必须从一个人走到另一个人那里才能交流；最好的情况也不过是一个人可以把纸条带给另一个人。所以，除非一个人碰到另一个人，否则你们就无法交流。随着电报、电话，以及现在尤其是互联网的出现，突然之间，世界上的所有知识都能由任何人即时获取。这就像你身体里的一个细胞能够获取我们身体其余部分的全部信息。数量庞大的超高速反馈回路——这就是智能和意识。显然，进化已经进入了一个新的层面。

WorldPost：你所设想的这个有趣未来面临的主要障碍是什么？什么可能会阻止我们到达那里？

马斯克：人口结构是一个真正的问题。许多国家的人们生的孩子不够多。这本应通过移民来解决。但从哪里移民？如果欧洲，或者就此而言中国，只能生育维持其人口所需人数的50%，它们将如何生存？人们将不得不重新唤起把生育孩子视为一种社会责任的观念。如果你能生，而且也有此意愿，你就应该生。否则文明就会直接消亡。出生率与财富、教育和宗教呈负相关。你越富有、受教育程度越高，孩子就越少。然而，宗教与生育孩子密切相关。在本世纪后半叶，我们将看到一种前所未见的人口内爆，包括黑死病时期也未曾有过。算术很明显。我们将不得不扭转这种局面。否则，我们就会形成一个倒置的人口金字塔。有一件事是确定的：如果人都消失了，文明也会随之消失。

WorldPost：技术难道不会拯救我们吗？机器人难道不能像它们已经开始在老龄化的日本所做的那样，支撑规模小得多的人口吗？

马斯克：照这个速度，唯一会剩下的东西就是机器人。连续3代人的人口替代率为50%，会让你的人口降至当前人口的12%。而这12%中的大多数人都将在照顾他们的祖父母。

WorldPost：通往光明未来还有其他障碍吗？

马斯克：宗教极端主义。如果它随着时间推移而增长，尤其是如果它是一种反科学的卢德主义形式，那就是一个明显的威胁。我不太愿意提另一个担忧：我希望AI（人工智能）能善待我们。

WorldPost: Elon Musk is an entrepreneur and founder of Tesla, SpaceX and SolarCity. What are the key innovations that will change our lives in the decades ahead?

Musk: There are four apart from the Internet, an astonishing invention by which people can access knowledge from anywhere. There will be the transition to the sustainable production and consumption of energy. Hopefully, the extension of human life to other planets, depending on how rapidly we progress in developing space transport and how we live — if we manage to survive — by then. Reading and writing genetic code. And AI — artificial intelligence. Our species has the capacity to accomplish all these things. We are already engaged in doing them now.

WorldPost: While there have been revolutionary advances in information and bio technologies in recent decades, we still fly — more or less — the same 747s of 40 years ago and take the marginally improved bullet trains the Japanese pioneered in the 1960s. Why has it been so difficult to move to what you call "the fifth mode" of transportation — the kind of "hyperloop technology" you are promoting?

Musk: Well, bullet trains are often not better. The problem is that you face strong headwinds. I was frustrated reading about the high-speed rail project in California — the first proposed in the US — and another one in the UK. To me it seemed like we were taking a step backwards in technology, as if we were going backwards not only from the Concorde to the 747 you mentioned, but to the DC-3. Japan produced some pretty impressive trains which they deployed in the 1980s. Then China put in place an even more advanced train network. In the advanced economies like California, where we have a lot of money, it seems to me we ought to be thinking what we can do to get beyond that. It is not a matter of one-upmanship, but rather from the standpoint that the future is going to be better. If you get up in the morning and think the future is going to be better, it is a bright day. Otherwise, it's not. So, I started thinking about what might be the fastest way to get from one city to another abiding by the laws of physics, or at least the physics we know today. After a lot of iterations I came up with the idea of the "hyperloop." For the hyperloop to work you need to combine a bunch of factors. It is kind of an air hockey table combined with a rail gun combined with a super-sonic Concorde. It will go very fast in a low-air density environment like the Concorde and is electro-magnetically accelerated, which is where you get the kinetic energy. The suspension mechanism is like an air hockey table. One of the key innovations is to have a powerful turbo-compressor on the nose of the pod that compresses the air in front of the pod and transfers it to the rear. That prevents high-pressure air from building up on the nose and causing resistance. This is totally technologically feasible. When engineers look at this idea, they say, "oh yeah, totally possible." When non-engineers look at it, they say "this is preposterous." I've talked to California Governor Jerry Brown about this. He got a little mad and called me up. He said, "how come you are saying our bullet train is not good." I said, "going only 120 miles per hour from LA to San Francisco — people can do that on I-5 in their car." He said, "well, it has to go 150 miles out of its way so it can stop in Bakersfield and Fresno." I said, "well, you are making my point for me. It may be great for people living in those places, but not if you want to get from LA to San Francisco quickly." If we could do high-speed rail in California just half a notch above what they've done on the Shanghai line in China, and if we had a straight path from LA to San Francisco, as well as the milk run, at least that would be progress. I'm not saying we have to do the hyperloop or nothing. I'm saying we should just have a bad ass transportation system. Look, I like Jerry a lot. He's a good guy. He genuinely cares about things. But I do think we need to raise our sights here and aim higher.

WorldPost: Some of the leaders in Singapore want to make it the first "electric city" with all electric cars like the Tesla. Because the Asian leaders there or in China think more long term, they have the capacity to rebuild the foundations of their infrastructure as they construct new megacities. Do you think Asia will be the largest market for electric cars?

Musk: That is a great idea for Singapore. Hong Kong too. We do expect more sales in Asia than any other part of the world just by virtue of population and economy. It is a bit more of a top down situation there. If the top political leaders, obviously in Singapore or China, decide to do something, it really happens. Here in the West people often don't like listening to their leaders even if they are right.

WorldPost: A "multi-planetary civilization" is central to your thinking. When Stephen Hawking talks about this, he does so out of the fear that our species will not develop intelligently enough in time to save this planet, so we better hedge our bets and explore other options. Is that where you are coming from?

Musk: I'm more optimistic than Stephen Hawking or Martin Rees, the head of the Royal Society in Britain. He thinks it is quite likely that our civilization will end in this century. I hope he is wrong. I'm more optimistic about our civilization. And I do stress "multi-planetary." It's not like "let's find another planet, but somewhere else." I hesitate to use the word "utopian." But if you imagine the future we want and say, "that would be a good one," for me you'd want to have a future where there is a space-spanning civilization where our species is out there exploring the stars. That would be great. My motivation comes from the standpoint that such a civilization would be the best adventure and something really inspiring that would make life more fun. That motivates me the most. A strong second would be the preservation of consciousness and human civilization as we know it up to this point. From an evolutionary standpoint, human consciousness has not been around very long. A little light just went on after four and a half billion years. How often does that happen? Maybe it is quite rare. In fact, it would appear to be quite rare. Or, others out there with a consciousness are very good at hiding. If it is such a rare thing, then we should do whatever we can to ensure its long-term survival.

WorldPost: You have also talked about creating a "greater collective enlightenment" through technology, and of the Internet as "a collective nervous system." Some scientists have argued that this global thinking circuit and the planetary reach of the media enable something akin to "horizontal gene transfer." Are we on the brink of "an evolution of evolution?"

Musk: I believe we are, yes. I think we have effectively created a kind of super-organism. It is like when uni-cellular creatures existed without nervous systems, they communicated by osmosis. Before the Internet and advanced telecommunications, communication was incredibly slow. You would have to literally go from one person to another to communicate; at best one person could carry a note to another. So unless one person bumps into another one, you are not going to communicate. With the telegraph, the telephone and now, especially, the internet, suddenly all the world's knowledge is instantly available to any person. That is like one cell in your body having access to all the information about the rest of our body. A huge number of super fast feedback loops — that is what intelligence and consciousness is. Clearly, evolution is on a new plane.

WorldPost: What are the main impediments to this fun future that you envision? What might stop us from getting there?

Musk: Demographics is a real issue. People are not having enough kids in many countries. This is supposed to be solved by immigration. But immigration from where? If Europe, or China for that matter, only produce 50 per cent of the people needed to maintain their populations, how will they survive? People are going to have to revive the idea of having children as a kind of social duty. If you can, and are so inclined, you should. Otherwise civilization will just die. The birth rate is inversely correlated to wealth, education and religion. The wealthier and more educated you are, the less children you have. Religion, however, is closely correlated to having children. In the latter part of this century we are going to see a demographic implosion the likes of which we haven't before, including with the Black Plague. The math is obvious. We are going to have to turn this around. Otherwise we have an inverted demographic pyramid. There is one thing that is certain: if the people go away, so will civilization.

WorldPost: Won't technology save us? Won't robots, as they are already beginning to in aging Japan, be able to support vastly smaller populations?

Musk: At this rate, the only thing that will be left will be robots. Three generations with a 50 per cent replacement rate will get you to 12 per cent of your current population. And most of those 12 per cent will be taking care of their grandparents.

WorldPost: Other obstacles to a bright future?

Musk: Religious extremism. If that grows over time, particularly if it is an anti-science Luddite form, is an obvious threat. I hesitate to mention the other concern: I hope the AI (artificial intelligence) is nice to us.