埃隆，首先我想说，我们非常高兴你平安无事地来到这里。是的，呃，谢谢。呃，不幸的是，我不得不绕行而迟到了。我当时，呃，在飞，我把起落架放着飞到了这里，因为好像出了某种起落架问题，起落架卡住了，还有某种警告灯，我的飞行员说，如果它们被起落架吸引，它可能就再也放不下来了，所以就这样。所以这可能是最好的。这种事连你也会遇到。是的，是的。好吧，概述你各种各样的问题。嗯，所以，嗯，无论如何，我们很乐意等你，也很高兴你平安抵达。谢谢你们邀请我，很高兴见到你们。谢谢你过来，我真的很感激。你信守了承诺，这很好。我想你向我作出承诺时喝醉了，不过

没关系，我接受。所以，你知道，自从你来过之后的这几年里，你做成了一些惊人的事情，就你的两家公司所做的实质性工作而言。嗯，我们先来谈谈太空，以及你在那里一直做的事情。嗯，很显然，你在着陆、让火箭着陆方面取得了一些成功；你知道，你还做了许多其他人们认为你不会成功的事情。谈谈你认为 SpaceX 取得的进展吧。当然。嗯，我是说，有很多事情，我想我自己都不认为我们会成功。所以，那个，那个，嗯，而最重要的事情是能够让轨道级火箭的，呃，酿造级着陆。嗯，并且，呃，既能把它带回卡纳维拉尔角，在

陆地上着陆，也能让它降落在海上的无人船上。这里需要有一个了解轨道动力学的教育过程。嗯，因为很多人感到困惑，比如，你们到底为什么要让一艘船着陆，让一枚火箭降落在海里的一艘船上？这似乎相当不方便。而原因是，上去并留在那里实际上关乎相对于地球表面的水平速度。所以，嗯，太空与，或者说太空与，或者说，和轨道之间存在巨大差异。比如，你可以把太空想象成，比如太平洋的国际水域边界。比如，如果你，你知道，呃，到离岸100英里的地方，严格来说你就离开沿岸水域了，现在你身处太平洋。所以就像，严格来说你身处太平洋

但是，但是它，但是轨道就像是环绕地球航行。这是一个极其巨大的差异。而，而物体之所以上去并留在那里，是因为你正以极快的速度绕着地球飞驰，以至于你向外的径向加速度等于重力向内的加速度，因此两者相互平衡，你得到的净重力为零。所以，当你看到空间站时，这件事有一点点，有一点点算是，嗯，违反直觉，那就是空间站实际上正以每小时17 000英里的速度绕着地球飞驰，尽管它看起来，它看起来真的静止不动，你知道，但它移动得真的、真的非常快。嗯，我是说，为了更直观地说明，嗯，手枪中一把45口径枪射出的子弹，是，是，是略低于音速。所以空间站的速度超过25

倍于它，而这实际上正是上去并留在那里所需要的，也正因如此，也正因如此，术语叫作逃逸速度，而不是逃逸高度。根本不存在逃逸高度这种东西，只有逃逸速度。你需要达到特定速度才能逃脱地球引力。是的，你可以把引力想象成时空中的一种漏斗。嗯，所以把它想象成硬币漏斗，真的，它非常像那样，在，在，你知道，不过显然它算是一个四维硬币漏斗。但，呃，如果你，如果你让一颗弹珠或一枚硬币在硬币漏斗上旋转，当它，当它处在外侧远处时，它算是缓慢旋转，然后随着它越来越接近，它会转得越来越快。而如果你想，如果你想，如果你要从漏斗底部开始

并且你想要，要，要，要，要出去，你会让它沿水平方向旋转，它就会，就会旋转着出去，而，而，而那实际上就是你怎样，你怎样进入轨道。嗯，是的，那么引力如何，嗯，有点像一个漏斗，为什么你想降落在海上的，海上的一艘船上，因为为了进入轨道，你的水平速度才是唯一重要的，你的高度根本就无关紧要。嗯，事实上，那个，那个，嗯，在我所说的名义上的，嗯，100公里太空边界处，引力几乎与地球表面的引力完全相同。嗯，它就像是，如果说有什么不同，也只是比地球表面低几个百分点。嗯，呃，所以，为了上去并留在那里，唯一重要的是你相对于地球表面沿水平方向移动得有多快。所以

你会拥有那种向外的径向加速度，或者可以把它想象成，也许像绳球之类的东西。真正重要的是那种向外的加速度。所以，当火箭要进入轨道时，嗯，它上升的唯一原因是要离开大气层稠密的部分，因为在高速下，大气层像糖蜜一样稠密。因此它只会短暂上升，但如果你看火箭轨迹的长曝光照片，你会看到它上升，却立即转弯并开始水平飞行。因此，嗯，在，在那个，那个，呃，那个，呃，在这两个级，嗯，分离的时刻，主要助推级是火箭最昂贵的部分，发生那个，那个级间分离的时刻

呃，可以，嗯，高达，呃，10马赫，但它，所以它正以10倍音速远离发射场，因此为了回到发射场，你必须有足够的，呃，燃料和氧气来逆转那个速度，并且并且并且一路推进回发射场，而你根本没有，物理规律其实不允许你拥有那么多。这不是节省燃料费用或任何类似的问题，而是物理上不可能。所以因为另一个关于，呃，如果你，如果你在太空中的情况是，没有任何东西可供反作用，所以，比如说，飞机可以非常容易地盘旋，因为它在与空气相互作用，而在真空中没有任何东西可供反作用，所以要往另一个方向返回，唯一的办法就是施加恰好

和你出发时所用的一样多的能量。如果你想往后走，就必须施加和你往前走时所用的一样多的能量，事实上，或者实际上是2倍，因为你得先把它降到零，然后你还得，你得在别处着陆。对，所以归根结底，这东西正飞快地冲出去，就是飞快地冲出去。对，它超级快，是脚的10倍，它很可能会在海洋上空，因为海洋覆盖了大部分的……哦，实际上在分离时，它离得并没有那么远，可能距离发射场100公里，但它正以快得要命的速度朝相反方向，你知道，远离发射场。所以真正让它着陆的唯一办法，就是让它沿着那条弧线、那条弹道弧线继续飞行，然后在远海的一艘船上着陆。

那艘船被预先部署在一个颗粒状的，呃，纬度和经度上，非常非常精确，误差在大约1米以内。嗯，然后火箭会，嗯，从真空中以高超音速穿过稀薄空气，呃，嗯，而，那么当它在真空中时是什么情况？显然你不能使用气动舵面，你必须使用氮气喷射器来控制姿态和位置。然后当它开始接触空气时，我们使用栅格翼，因为栅格翼看起来有点像华夫饼，它们在很广的范围内都相当有效，从速度非常高的高超音速，到超音速、跨音速和亚音速。所以很难，很难有能在整个范围内都良好运作的箭头表面。然后，呃，所以一旦错误力变大，它就会使用，嗯，

4个栅格翼来算是控制它的姿态，让自己着陆。对，它在控制它的，它在用栅格翼控制图像和滚转，嗯，而且，呃，然后一旦，而那些狮鹫接下来会把它定位到离船相当近的地方，然后它会点燃，在这种情况下，9台发动机中的3台来遏制速度，然后在着陆前降到1台发动机，以实现精确控制。对。好吧，所以那超级［ __ ］难。有一段视频。所以为什么，为什么那很重要？为什么这个时刻对你很重要？嗯，好吧，为了重复使用助推级，它约占火箭成本的70%。所以那是什么成本？是多少钱？嗯，我是说，大概在3000万至3500万美元这个量级。对，所以你想省下

那笔钱。对，我是说，就像，我试着，我告诉我的团队，这就像想象有一托盘现金正在穿过大气层呕吐，而且它即将烧毁并摔成细小碎片，你会试着救下它吗？对，对，对。大概会。是的，是的。好吧。对，那听起来是个好主意。对。好吧，嗯，所以，所以对，所以我们想把它收回来，那样，嗯，我们就不必再造一个。对，嗯，而且我认为，如果火箭就这样被摔成细小碎片并落下，是相当悲惨的。我能问你一个问题吗？我们一直在，我们一直在进入太空，呃，有多久，50年或者差不多吧。在你开始做这件事之前，没有人这样做，而杰夫·贝索斯的公司做过，呃，政府从来没有算是把火箭回收起来，他们从来没有救下那托盘现金，为什么？

而且俄罗斯人也没有。我是说，那究竟是怎么回事？对，我是说，曾有人尝试，呃，用航天飞机做这件事，但没有，嗯，返回。这是火箭助推器第一次返回发射场。对。嗯，从一次轨道任务中返回，而且而且肯定也是第一次在船上着陆。但那些升空的、并非像飞机那样设计的普通火箭，从来没有尝试这么做，对吧？嗯，在我看来，飞机那种做法并不是个好主意。所以，飞机，嗯，而我认为原因是，直觉上看起来飞机应该可行，但但实际上，如果你考虑到，确实每一种交通方式都有适合其介质的设计，而如果你在太空中，机翼就不是很有用，因为

那里没有空气，而且而且而且如果你想去地球以外的地方，那里也没有跑道。所以这个，这些都是重要的考虑因素。所以这就是为什么他们去月球时使用推进式着陆。对。但我说的是，当他们建造航天飞机时，它算是像一个，看起来像某种球茎。我认为那很讨国会喜欢。对，对。它看起来很酷。那很酷。对。看起来像一架飞机。你能解释一下吗？你知道，杰夫，杰夫，好问题。杰夫·贝索斯昨晚在这里，我问他，你正在做的事情和埃隆·马斯克正在做的事情有什么区别？他说，嗯，我认为我们，呃，我想他用了“志同道合”这个词，是从总体意义上说的，然后他接着解释了一些区别。你是否，然后他

但他谈到，而且如果我错误转述了他，请纠正我，但我认为他说的是，这一切都是为了打好基础，通过把这些火箭可重复使用的基本基础设施做好，从而能够做更伟大的事情，对吧？这正确吗？你和他有相似的出发点吗？而且你在想，我的意思是，我认为观点上肯定有一些相似之处，嗯，我认为杰夫和我都相信，对未来而言，成为一个航天文明，而且最终不要置身群星之间是很重要的，而且我认为那就是，那就是我认为令人兴奋、鼓舞人心的未来，我认为，我想这个房间里的人肯定都想要这种未来，而且不管怎样，尤其是在看到那些小行星将摧毁这颗行星之后

我的意思是，嗯，我的意思是，我并不把它看成，嗯，你知道，我们想要，我们，我的意思是，我认为，我认为当我说，你知道，多行星物种时，那才真正是我们想成为的，并不是说，你知道，解决单一行星物种，而是移动行星，它，它真正是成为一个多行星物种，嗯，并让我们所知的文明和生命延伸到地球之外、太阳系的其他地方，并最终延伸到其他恒星系统，嗯，我认为那才是，那是，那就是令人兴奋、鼓舞人心的未来，而且我认为那就是，你知道，我认为，你知道，任何一种，你都需要这样的东西，才能，才能，才能让你高兴地在早晨醒来，你知道，就像生活，就像生活不能只是解决问题，就像必须得有鼓舞人心的东西

和令人兴奋、让你庆幸自己活着的东西。那么在近期内，既然你已经完成了这件堪称巨大成就的事情，SpaceX 现在的目标是什么？你近期的计划是什么，然后长期计划又是什么？当然，所以，嗯，所以我们计划再次飞行，呃，其中一个已经着陆的火箭助推器，希望是在大约2或3个月后，差不多那样，而且，然后那，那，所以那将是一个重要的里程碑，嗯，到目前为止，这些级看起来相当，相当不错，嗯，即使它们经历了相当，有一个非常困难的进入、再入状况，嗯，但它们看起来状态不错，嗯，我们现在有4个，所以我们想开始让它们再次飞行，你知道，在夏末左右，然后希望

到今年年底，我们将发射猎鹰重型，呃，它将是，嗯，世界上推力最强的火箭，推力超过世界上其他任何火箭的2倍，所以猎鹰重型是，将在起飞时产生大约500万磅推力，约为土星5号尺寸的三分之二。哦，真的吗？是的。所以那就是把宇航员送上月球的火箭，对吧？完全正确。所以事实上，我们正从同一个，从同一个发射台发射，从阿波罗11号发射台完全相同的台位发射。哇。是的，太惊人了。所以我希望在今年年底前发射那枚猎鹰重型。是的，那，那是我们的期望。那比你最初希望发射它的时间有所推迟，对吧？嗯，是的，嗯，但是，呃，这，我的意思是，也并不是说我们有很多迫切想要的客户

让我们发射它，好，所以实际上第一次发射不会搭载任何运行卫星，它将是一次演示发射，而客户真正希望我们发射的首次运行飞行要到明年。你知道，有很多客户希望我们发射，呃，Falcon 9，所以我们的发射中大约四分之一，我们的飞行，是为，呃，为 NASA，但四分之三是商业卫星，比如广播通信卫星，嗯，或者其他国家的科学任务，嗯，而，嗯，这里有相当、相当多的积压，而且我们去年火箭出了问题，所以这在我们的日程中造成了大约6个月的空档，因此我们的发射算是积压了，我们正努力把它们尽可能、尽可能地

尽我们所能地快，嗯，而且你知道，你知道，为我们的客户服务。这个，呃，所以发射会每隔2到4周进行一次，你知道，有一条相当、相当高的发射电缆，那是比 NASA 以前快得多的节奏，对吧？嗯，是的，我是说，这个，它的发射次数会比世界上其他任何东西都多，嗯，所以会超过俄罗斯、超过欧洲、超过，嗯，到明年肯定会超过中国，而且主要是为了给客户交付。正是，是的，这个，嗯，有很多广播通信卫星将被送入地球同步轨道，嗯，而且，嗯，然后还有，我们也将发射新的，呃，铱星星座，所以铱星有一个下一代的，呃，卫星星座，我想有60或70颗卫星，相当，你

知道，尺寸不小的卫星，那将比目前的铱星系统提升许多个数量级，所以你将能够拥有全球宽带，嗯，因此那会需要一大批发射，而且，嗯，是的，然后，然后明年我们将让，嗯，Dragon 第2版飞行，它能够搭载最多7名宇航员前往空间站。事实上，Dragon 2确实是，它也是一个推进式着陆器，嗯，而且它将是，呃，它的设计用途是把宇航员送往空间站，但它也能作为通用科学载荷运送平台，前往太阳系中的任何地方。所以，嗯，所以你要把它送到哪里？我们会，我们会在2018年把一艘送往火星。

现在说说2018年，那是确定的，几年后，几年后。那次飞行你会参加吗？不会。你谈过这件事，你说你不想，你想死在火星上，只是不想死于着陆，对吧？是这样吗？嗯，我是说，我觉得如果你要选择一个死去的地方，那么火星大概，你知道，不是个坏选择。好吧，嗯，但你不是，对吧，这不是什么火星死亡愿望之类的。不过，不过，呃，是的，我是说，你会出生在地球上，在火星上。所以2018年把这个发往火星，对吧，2018年把这个发往火星，按照你的计划，像你这样的人什么时候能到那里？当然，所以，所以2018年的任务将使用一艘 Drag，Dragon 第2版，对，而那个，嗯，我不建议乘它去火星，因为，我是说，它的内部空间

相当于一辆大型 SUV。好吧，呃，Dragon 的旅程大约要6个月。在 SUV 里待那么久太漫长了。我认为这可以做到，可以做到，但不是，不是，大概不太理想，嗯，而且它也没有能力把我们送回来。对，那似乎比太空系统更重要。是的，我们可以把这一点写进小字里，你知道。是啊，抱歉。是的，这就像药品广告里的副作用：顺便说一下，我们无法返回地球。是的，我们看过那部电影，我们不知道发生了什么，他回来了。是啊，是啊，嗯，所以还不错，我其实挺喜欢那部电影。那你认为他真能那样回来吗？那可信吗？我觉得其中有一些，你知道，关联，虽然它，它大体上，它大约有80%在科学上

是正确的，嗯，但它确实串联了一系列不太可能发生的事件。比如呢？嗯，我是说，我不认为你真的能，呃，乘一枚无制导火箭从奥兹起飞，然后用手指钩住宇航服，再导航到我们，到一艘飞船，对吧？是啊，不是，不是不可能，只是可能性极低。所以那个三明治，不过如果你是马特·达蒙，也许，也许你有些疯狂的本事。是的，当然。那么，那么，那么像你这样的人什么时候能到那里？我猜你会排在最前面。是的，所以，呃，今年晚些时候的9月，在，嗯，IAC，也就是那个大型的，呃，可以说是世界航天大会、行业航天大会上，我将介绍，呃，火星殖民的架构。所以我认为真正重要的是能够运送，呃，大量

大量的人，以及，嗯，最终达到数百万人，还有数吨货物运往火星，嗯，而这正是要在火星上建立一座能够自我维持，而且，而且其实不只是自我维持、还会不断发展的，呃，城市所必需的。我很好奇，你去过太空了吗？没有。为什么？我是说，你直接上去一下就行，对吧，短暂地去一下，还是不行？哦，我想我可以。是啊，那你为什么还没有，比如走过，好吧，在某个时候之类的，或者？是啊，是啊，可能会去。你去火星前会先做一次月球测试吗？嗯，是啊，我是说，可能，可能，我不知道，也许4或5年后进入轨道之类的。但还是那句话，太空和轨道是非常不同的事情。不过说到火星，无论是不是你，你会不会先送2或3个人上去？坦率地说，我倒希望你亲自试试，不过，嗯

因为那会很刺激，不过，嗯，在实施整个殖民火星架构之前，你会先送一些人，一些人上去，大概看看会怎样吗？我是说，基本计划是这样的：从2018年开始，每逢火星机会，我们都会，呃，向火星派出，嗯，一次任务。所以这些机会大约每26个月出现一次。因此，嗯，你知道，我们正在建立人们可以依赖的火星货运航班，呃，用于运送货物，而且就像说过的，地球飞蛾欧宝会合每26个月才有一次。所以2018年有一次，2020年还会有一次，而且我认为，如果一切按计划进行，我们应该能够，呃，我们应该能够大概在2024年送人出发，并于2025年抵达。

这个，这个日程比美国联合航空的日程更确定吗？嗯，呃，我不知道，当然存在一些与此相关的不确定性。所以，嗯，我们来，嗯，反正我会给你看，这就是计划：大约在2024年进行第一次，呃，进行第一次，嗯，火星的发射，而且使用你的运输系统。我想回到你刚才谈到的一个多重，这会是一枚非常大的火箭。好吧，非常大。比75更大？是的。20，2倍那么大还是怎样？9月我会告诉你。你到9月之前什么都不肯说？拜托。非常大。拜托，它必须非常大。到底多大才算非常大？这么大。[笑声] 你认为我们应该在某个时候放弃地球吗？不，那样不。我觉得这很好，但你说过一些话。我们为什么会受约束

在地球上，这里真的很好。你说过我们可能不得不放弃地球，所以有个 B 计划是好事。你看到之前发生了什么。不会吧，那太惊人了，那就像，那太惊人了，我不知道，但那不是我。好吧，好吧，那不是我，就像 Shaggy。所以我们转向地球上的事吧，我们谈谈，呃，Hyperloop、Tesla，呃，还有其他事情。我们先谈谈 Tesla，嗯，你觉得公司目前处于什么位置？而且自动驾驶汽车、自主，自主领域有很多活动。你怎么看大家纷纷加入，Google、Apple 和其他公司，嗯，还有所有汽车制造商，嗯？是啊，我是说，已经有太多所谓自主电动汽车初创公司的公告了，我正等着我妈也宣布一家。好吧，就像，妈

你也是，嗯，我是说，有很多，所以，嗯，对，我是说，在，在，对，仅在美国，就有4家，我想也许有5家由中国资助的 eb 初创公司，规模在10亿美元以上，比如 cirrus funding，而且还有一大批初创公司，然后当然，你知道，整个汽车行业似乎都在朝那个方向发展，大众刚刚，我想，宣布了一座他们将要建造的巨型电池工厂，而我认为这些都是好事，你知道，这很好，整个行业尽快转向可持续交通是好事，嗯，我们把专利开源了，希望能在这方面有所帮助，而且，嗯，对，所以看到所有这些活动令人鼓舞，嗯，从 Tesla 的角度来看，你知道，我们只是在努力，我们想采取一系列行动

这些行动，呃，有可能加速可持续能源时代的到来，嗯，所以，嗯，尽可能快地扩大生产，因此我们把 Model 3 的计划提前了2年，所以我们希望努力在大概2018年这个时间点，使汽车总量达到50万辆，这是一个激进的时间表，但我认为可以实现，然后到2020年也许每年生产100万辆，而且，嗯，你知道，我能看到，我认为有一条相当清晰的路径可以到达那里。[音乐] 自动驾驶显然极其重要，人们会想要关注自动驾驶，未来一辆车没有自动驾驶会显得很奇怪，但是，嗯，对，所以我想那就是，那么我们正在扩大规模，你怎么看待所有这些努力，不是你母亲，但是，对，我妈妈，她不会做这个，她也许会做一枚火箭

情况，但是，嗯，你怎么看待它们各自的情况，我们逐一谈谈，谷歌正在做的事，你怎么看他们正在做的事，因为他们在某个时候会成为竞争对手，这些最终都会是竞争对手。嗯，这个，你知道，我认为谷歌所做的，我是说，谷歌在展示自动驾驶交通的潜力方面做得非常好，嗯，但他们，他们不是一家，他们不是一家汽车公司，所以他们可能会，你知道，把自己的技术授权给其他汽车公司，我想他们宣布了与菲亚特有关的某件事，所以我，我不会说，你知道，谷歌是竞争对手，嗯，因为他们不是一家汽车公司，我们也许会与某个获得他们技术授权的对象竞争，但不会直接与他们竞争，对吧，嗯，苹果，嗯，对

那会更直接，那会更直接，对，从招聘模式就能看出来，还有，对，那类事情。那么你，好吧，所以他们会更直接，你怎么看，嗯，我是说，我，我会说，比如，你知道，我，我，我认为他们做这件事很棒，而且，嗯，我，嗯，你知道，我希望他们，希望这能成功。你觉得他们的时间表是什么，嗯，我不知道，我是说，嗯，事实上，我认为他们本应更早启动这个项目，嗯，呃，那个，那个，呃，嗯，但我不知道，我不知道他们什么时候，我是说，你知道，他们不会向我透露生产计划的细节，但是，嗯，我，我，我认为不会，我认为他们不会早于也许2020年进入量产阶段，那将是最早的时间，而那

是不是太晚了？我们说他们本应更早启动，是因为到2020年再想阻止你、击败你、与你竞争或者随便怎样，就太晚了吗？这就像是错失了机会，这只是一个，他们，这是，这是，嗯，到2020年就结束了。

我不会就说，那只是像，那是，那是差了几年。我认为他们，他们很可能会造出一辆好车，而且很可能会成功。汽车行业非常庞大，所以并不是说，嗯，你知道，只能有一家公司而排斥其他公司。我的意思是，全球有12家具有重要影响力的汽车公司，所以，而且任何一家公司拥有的最高市场份额约为10，所以不是说，嗯，你知道，有人推出了一辆车，然后他们突然就像，把其他所有人都干掉了。不是，不是那样的。嗯，而且汽车制造的庞大规模，是，是，是，你亲眼看到工厂之前很难理解的。我的意思是，它们极其巨大，就像那些产业，对，我的意思是，工业基础设施的，其，其，庞大规模令人震惊。

不只是装配厂，还有其他一切相关的东西，是的，供应链，没错，这些症状只是小小的引擎，是冰山一角，真的，是的，服务计划简直把冰山带走了，非同寻常。供应链，嗯，你知道，一旦深入到2级、3级、2级或4级供应商，嗯，那可能比这个要多一个数量级。好的，所以，所以你认为 Google 不会成为竞争对手？可能会成为直接竞争对手。是的，是的，当然。那些汽车公司呢？没错，我认为它们都会成为竞争对手。是的，当然。你看到目前有谁做得不错？Mercedes，在什么方面？有竞争力的汽车，现有厂商中有潜在竞争力的汽车。我想，我的意思是，我认为到目前为止，没有任何一家汽车公司

制造出，嗯，一款真正出色的电动汽车。我的意思是，如果你不同意，你可以告诉我，嗯，但我认为它们还没有任何一家制造出出色的电动汽车。好的，它们，你知道，想必会继续改进目前已经做出的东西，然后在某个时候，它们也许会造出一辆，那辆，嗯，你知道，是一辆出色的汽车，但不，它们还没有做到。能让我问一下电池吗？哦，可以，当然。所以你正在建造这座超级工厂，对吧？你已经把它建好了，它建好了，它，嗯，还没有完全两者。好的，但其中一部分已经在运转了。是的，其中一部分。那真是一个巨大的东西，就像超级工厂完工时，它会成为全世界占地面积最大的任何类型的建筑。任何类型，不只是工厂。它简直事件什么

这是最大的火箭，最大的建筑，我的意思是，嗯，我是说，我认为这不是为了规模而规模。只是说，如果你说，好吧，我们想实现这些目标，那么，嗯，那你就有点不得不制造一个大东西。好的，你有了这个大东西，这座巨大的建筑。是的，它将制造电池，这些电池，它将，我们制造举行一个开放活动，我们会开始举办开放派对，因为它已经运行了一小段时间，但我们很快会办一场派对。你们也许想来。好的，麻木。好吧，我们会来参加开头，但他们不能。我喜欢，我们正看到这东西过来，对吧，这太疯狂了。不，这就像一艘外星无畏舰，真的很离谱，因为我喜欢电池派对，不过，是的，嗯，对，但但谈谈

它的发展方向。这些是锂离子电池吗？是的，当然。所以它们和我们手机里的电池一样？不，请解释一下。是的，那么，你是否在电池方面取得了突破，是我感兴趣的事情。嗯，是的，我的意思是，一般来说，我的意思是，外面关于电池的胡说八道太多了，比如你读到的东西大概只有1%可以相信，你知道，也许锂离子涵盖了范围非常广泛的技术，不同化学体系之间的功率密度、能量密度和循环寿命可能存在巨大差异。它们确实可能有极大的不同。所以你真正应该问的是，正极是什么，负极是什么，对吧？嗯，所以在我们的情况下，没错。好的，嗯，我们把它

放在但锂实际上只占电芯质量的 2%，所以它就像沙拉里的盐。它只占电芯质量非常小的一部分，成本占比也相当小，但因为它叫锂离子，听起来好像占比很大，但它，它真的，就像，我其实应该被叫作镍石墨，因为它主要是镍和石墨。好的，而且，嗯，它是镍钴铝，但电池小东西和带有氧化硅层的石墨。电池效率或功率，也就是你知道的，在一定质量中能够储存的能量，似乎提升得非常缓慢，至少与，你知道，我们习惯了摩尔定律推动，嗯，集成电路变得更快相比，电池在我们的消费设备中似乎总是落后，而在你的，你已经

建造了这个巨大的东西，世界上有史以来最大的建筑。它还没有完全建成，但没错，它，你正在建造相当大的一部分。是的，嗯，用来制造电池。你的整个业务都依赖这些汽车里的电池。你是否找到了某种方法，能从电池给定大小的空间中显著提高，嗯，能量产出？嗯，是的，我的意思是，能量密度大概正以每年 5%左右的幅度提高，嗯，这听起来不多，但把它按复利累积很多年，最终会成为一个相当、相当可观的数字。嗯，很多人有点认为，哦，好吧，我们只不过是把一些笔记本电脑电池拼凑在一起，不知怎么就造出了一辆出色的汽车，但

如果真有那么容易，那我想我们应该会有相当多的竞争对手做同样的事情。但但这，这，这真的比那困难相当、相当多。嗯，它采用圆柱形外形规格，但电池内部与，嗯，你会在笔记本电脑中看到的电池有相当大的不同，而且，嗯，而且而且随着超级工厂所生产的电池，它们会变得越来越不同，那是为汽车高度优化的。嗯，而且，嗯，而且具有更高的能量密度，但但主要问题不是能量，我明白，因为我们，你知道，如果你今天购买一辆 Model S，嗯，续航里程约为 300 英里，嗯，而且那已经相当多了。嗯，所以人们真的需要一次不停地行驶超过 300 英里的情况相当少见，对吧

你知道，嗯，所以我认为我们其实没有续航问题，而且我们今天就能制造一辆续航 400 英里的汽车，那并不是什么太难的事。嗯，真正重要的是降低电池组每单位能量的成本。好的，这样你才能让汽车价格亲民。这才是真正重要的事情。所以确实有两个主要、主要的维度，可以沿着它们实现成本优化，并让某种东西面向全国市场供应。一个是设计迭代，经历某种东西的多个版本，另一个是规模经济。你有点需要同时具备这两件事，才能制造出有吸引力的大众市场产品。你看看手机，我们已经经历了多少次设计迭代

手机，嗯，然后，然后，而且而且看看它们的制造规模，那是巨大的，嗯，正是这一点让每个人都能在口袋里拥有一台超级计算机。嗯，说到这个，你谈到已经预订的销量时，你们收到了多少订单？大约是 40万。40万？400，是的。消费者的兴趣和一项承诺，其中很多都围绕着你，围绕着你和 Tesla 这个概念，以及那份兴奋。他们不是预订。实际上相当令人惊讶。我的意思是，嗯，因为我们没有做任何广告，也没有游击营销或任何东西。基本上就只是，对，我们要进行这场网络直播。现场观众只有，大约只有 1千人，嗯，而且

嗯，这确实让我们措手不及，但我想，你知道，当你有一款真正能引起客户共鸣的产品时，口碑就会，呃，像野火一样蔓延，而这似乎就是，是的，但这有一点，我是说，老实说，在某些群体中，尤其是硅谷的男性群体，如果你露面，读一下花生罐上的标签，他们都会对这种情形欣喜若狂，所以我的意思是，这其中很多确实是围绕着你，比如关于你的想法，以及围绕这位令人兴奋的创业者所产生的兴奋感，这足以让它发展成你一直希望的这家巨型公司吗，这种想法是埃隆的承诺，还是说它是，嗯，我其实认为并没有那么，我是说，有点，嗯，嗯，我，我不确定，我，我觉得其实我没那么值得归功于我，这个

这个，呃，我是说，Tesla凭借一支非凡的团队所做的事情，公司里大概有15 000人，嗯，极其努力地工作，创造有吸引力的产品，制造很棒的汽车，嗯，我们从Roadster开始，然后是Model S，而Model S被，你知道，《消费者报告》评为有史以来最好的汽车，又有了Model X，你知道，它有过一些，有过一些初期问题，但，嗯，我认为它现在已经到了这样一个阶段，它，它真的开始，我认为它真的，我认为在这一点上相当卓越，嗯，而且，呃，而且，而且所以人们看到这些，会说，好吧，既然Tesla制造了这些汽车，那么他们接下来制造的汽车很可能会是，你知道，那款更便宜的汽车，也是一款很棒的汽车，而且，嗯，是的，但你知道，所以它会是一款很棒的汽车，但价格会让人负担得起

这就像，太好了，好吧，听起来这正是我想要的东西。那么这辆车，这款下一代汽车，它的价格是，起售价是35000，好吧，买得起，好吧，那你们什么时候能做到真正买得起的程度呢？再往下降，比那个低得多。是的，我是说，有一点很重要，需要指出，35000，尤其是考虑到电力相对于汽油的成本更低，而且维护成本也低得多。你不必换机油，你永远不需要更换刹车，因为汽车使用再生制动，所以刹车的寿命和汽车一样长。做到这一点，汽车确实如此。基本上你只需要更换轮胎，就像，大概就这些。嗯，所以从根本上说，这辆车的使用成本比汽油车低得多，而且，而且，所以，嗯，还有，我认为

这个，这个，呃，汽车，也就是汽油车的平均价格大约是30 32之类的，对，我是说，它们的起售价会更低，但，但当人们选择，选择配置时，我认为在美国大约是32左右，所以我们已经相当接近那个，那个价格了，但那是你们的基础价格，对吧，我是说，不过，对，但它绝对很棒，可能不是这款车的平均售价，不是，但即使是35，它也会是一款很棒的汽车。

所以就像，即使你什么都不选，完全不加任何选装，它也会很棒，但你的，但你很可能会有一种组合，使你实际售出的汽车平均售价略高于那个价格。是的，可能，可能会是，是的，可能会是一个更高的数字，嗯，但尺寸真的很重要，就像那个35，如果有人订购那辆35000的汽车，他们会非常满意。不会是那种你必须订购一堆选装配置，否则这辆车就，你知道，不好的情况。那辆车会以35配备自动驾驶。

嗯，我有一个，呃，我可能会在年底再举办一场Tesla活动，嗯，更多地谈谈这个，所以你可以从这里开始。嗯，如果我从这里开始，那会是真正的大新闻。嗯，我们不介意。我只想说，我们会做显而易见的事情。好吧，好吧，明白了，这真的很明显，太酷了。所以，所以杯架，很好，好吧。嗯，所以实际上那些东西都很微妙。好吧，当然。我们再谈两件事，我想谈谈AI，因为我们在这里已经谈了很多。嗯，我想弄清楚你的想法究竟是什么，因为大体上就是埃隆害怕机器人，我是说，类似这样的说法，或者你怎么看？我害怕机器人。嗯，人工智能，你能不能具体澄清一下你现在遇到的问题到底是什么？而且你应该了解背景。

我们一直在和，呃，杰夫·贝索斯、桑达尔·柴，呃，我们和福特的马克·菲尔兹谈过这件事，嗯，呃，是的，还有Facebook的人。嗯，科技公司里似乎确实出现了一股巨大的新推动力，或者说一种兴趣，让人们相信，智能助手会让我们一切都好起来，而且这是好事，它会让你的生活更美好，让你的生活更美好。Siri会突然变聪明，微软那个会变聪明，而Google会把它们全都彻底击败。这大体上是一种乐观的版本：有时候技术会伤害你，但它给你的帮助要大得多。那确实，是的，所以这里已经有很多关于这个的讨论了。当然。然而，而你提出了一个稍有不同的立场，所以你能谈谈吗？好吧，我是说，我认为

我的完整立场大概要花相当长的时间来解释。嗯，我是说，我，我确实担心，嗯，AI可能采取的某些方向会对未来不利。这个，我是说，它，我，我认为可以公平地说，并非所有AI的未来都是良性的，并不是全部，好吧。嗯，而且，而且所以，如果你拥有某种东西，如果，如果这个，如果我们创造出某种在各个方面都远远超越我们的数字超级智能，嗯，确保它是良性的就非常重要。嗯，而且，嗯，所以实际上，我和，和，呃，其他几个人一起，嗯，创建了，呃，OpenAI，呃，它是一个AI，呃，它实际上是一家非营利组织，它，所以这里没有，我认为这里的治理结构很重要。嗯，所以你要确保不存在某种受托责任，要求，呃，靠……获取，嗯，你知道，利润

所开发的AI技术。嗯，所以，呃，所以我们创建了这个，呃，51c3。嗯，但，但我认为它很不一样，我是说，很多那种五一c3，你知道，它们，它们没有很强的紧迫感。嗯，就像它们并不，嗯，你知道，它们实际上并没有以很快的速度开发技术，但OpenAI有。所以OpenAI有非常强的紧迫感，而人才，我认为加入的那些人真的，真的非常了不起。而且OpenAI的意图是让AI力量民主化。嗯，有一句阿克顿勋爵的话我很喜欢，他就是提出“权力导致腐败，绝对权力绝对地制造”的那个人。嗯，也就是，呃，自由在于权力的分散，而专制在于权力的集中。所以我认为

重要的是，如果我们拥有这种不可思议的AI力量，它不应集中在少数人手中，并可能导致一个我们不想要的世界。那是什么样的世界？你看到了什么，预见到了什么？当你坐着的时候，这很难说，我是说，它被称为奇点，因为它，它很难预测。嗯，那个未来究竟可能是什么样，除此之外，我不认识很多喜欢生活在专制统治下这个想法的人。嗯，你知道，我认为人们通常会选择生活在民主制度下，而不是独裁制度下。而专制者会是计算机，还是控制它的人？你是否特别担心我提到的这些公司中的任何一家？它们现在似乎都在转向，认为这是未来10

年。我不会说出名字，但只有一家。只有一家是你担心的，而我猜它们并没有一门心思想制造一辆能与你竞争的汽车。只有一家为了，你知道，相互毁灭而竞争。就像，这不是，这不是关于竞争，实际上只是想提高未来会变好的概率，仅此而已。所以OpenAI的目标实际上只是采取最有可能改善正面未来的那组行动。比如，如果你可以把未来想成一组概率流，它们分叉出去，然后汇聚，坍缩到一个特定事件，接着再次分叉，而且，呃，未来会是正面的这件事关联着一组特定的概率，以及不同的

类型、风味。而且，呃，在OpenAI，我们希望尽我们所能去引导，提高美好未来发生的概率。我认为那就是，那确实就是我们正在努力做的事。你是否担心，因为把它开放出来，一些恶意行为者可能会利用已经开发出来的一些东西，借助这种力量做坏事？是的，我是说，那当然是那个，我是说，不过那是对它的一种很好的改造。我认为，如果AI力量被广泛分配，而不是，比方说，由某一个实体拥有某种比其他任何东西聪明100万倍的超级AI，你知道，如果AI力量反而被广泛分配，而且我们能在多大程度上把AI力量与每个人的意愿连接起来，就像，你知道，你会拥有自己的AI代理，你了解它，就像每个人都会拥有

他们自己的那种AI代理。然后，如果有人确实试图做某件非常可怕的事，那么其他人的集体意愿就能压倒那个恶意行为者。嗯，而如果只有一个AI，你知道，比以往任何东西好100万倍，而且它是专有的，而且它，是的，它要么拥有自己的世界，或者更可能的是，至少在初期，它由，你知道，某一小群人控制，那么你就做不到这一点。所以，嗯，我认为那就是，那确实就是风险。我是说，嗯，你知道，总是会有这些争论，比如什么，什么是最好的政府形式。嗯，我非常赞同，我想是丘吉尔说的，就像，你知道，民主是最糟糕的政府形式，除了所有其他形式，对吧。嗯，说到这个，是的，这次选举，你是，不不不，是的是的是的，这如何

让你觉得？现在发生的事情，你，你来到这个国家，你归化入籍，你知道，我认为，呃，我很高兴这个框架是，宪法认为应确保总统，呃，是这样一个人，他，嗯，是一艘旅舍船的船长，带着一个小作家。好吧，而且任何一位总统能造成的伤害都有一个限度。你确定吗？哦，是的，是的，是的。所以你并不担心，你目前支持这两位候选人中的任何一位吗？我尽量不介入这种局面，因为我认为这并不是我们民主制度最光彩的时刻。好吧，既然这并不是我们民主制度最光彩的时刻，你认为最好的做法是置身事外，还是？我们看看吧。我不确定我能做些什么来阻止最糟糕的情况。我确信自己能有多大影响，作为

作为一个人，对结果产生影响。所以我的意思是，如果我认为自己能够带来改变，我大概会做些什么。嗯，但是，嗯，就像我说的，我只是很高兴，总统，你知道，担任美国总统就像当一艘大船的船长，手里只有一个小舵。所以总统实际上能做多少好事或坏事是有限度的。我的意思是，很明显，如果总统能够让经济变得很好，而且有一个按钮可以按，他们会以光速按下那个按钮。所以你知道，他们只是，但他们可以，他们做不到，就像，做不到，他们无法神奇地让经济变好。嗯，没有任何总统会希望经济糟糕，从来没有。嗯，但他们，你知道，就像，他们能做的事情就是有限。嗯，而且，嗯，是的，我想确实有这个

核武器这件事，这个，是的，我想这是新东西，还有核武器这件事，是的，但我，我不知道，我觉得，我觉得，我觉得，我不认为我们会就这样任意发射核导弹。是的，一个人会有，总统能这么做，呃，我不这么认为。我的意思是，我觉得他是——不，他是总司令，我仍然不认为这意味着你可以想什么时候发射核导弹就什么时候发射，对吧？是的。嗯，我觉得国会会对此相当不满，而且他们可能不会被征询。是的，但我觉得，我觉得军方大概会说，是的，我们确实认为在发射之前应该征询国会，呃，是的，那可能会抢先发生。你愿意——不过你是把信心建立在这上面。我非常确信军方

不会就这样，你知道，随随便便同意向某个人发射核导弹。嗯，这让人安心。没错。那么，嗯，呃，我们很快会放出来，我们会——关于超级高铁，你一直参与其中，你目前的参与程度是什么？只是——是的，我知道这有点令人困惑，因为，嗯，我，嗯——你上次来这里时谈过它。是的，其实这个想法是我提出来的。嗯，我最初提出了一个想法，结果发现是错的，它行不通，那是几年前，然后，然后，嗯，但我有点信口开河，说，我看起来像是有一个可行的想法，结果那个也行不通。不过经过大量迭代，我得以想出某种物理原理能够自洽的东西，然后发表了

那篇论文，只是说，听着，任何想做这件事的人都很好，去吧，你知道，请自便，因为我忙着经营 Tesla 和 SpaceX，手头已经够忙了。是的，是的。所以我觉得这会很棒。我的意思是，能有任何有趣的新交通解决方案都会很棒，嗯，任何能让人们以更安全、成本更低、更方便的方式抵达目的地的方案，嗯，那都会很棒。我的意思是，所以我觉得，我发表的那篇超级高铁论文所做的最有价值的事，可能是激发人们思考新的交通系统。所以不只是，哦，让我们，你知道，造一列高速列车，嗯，好吧，那甚至还没有日本在80年代做的那么快。比如，好吧，我看不出那有什么意义。你知道，比如，我们确实应该努力

想出某种东西，嗯，我觉得尤其是在加利福尼亚州，比如我们应该说，嘿，什么是最好的？让我们发明某种远胜于其他一切的新东西。你想对此信口开河吗？嗯，好吧，嗯，你知道，我，所以，所以我不是任何一家正在研究它的公司的投资者，而且我一直尽量保持中立，因为我就像是，我努力不偏向某一家公司而冷落另一家，只是鼓励任何对此感兴趣的人，告诉他们，你知道，努力给予他们精神支持，你知道，嗯，而且我希望他们成功。嗯，我在半蓝这方面唯一正在做的事是，比如我们正在举办一场学生竞赛，而这场学生竞赛其实只是旨在鼓励，呃，学生们思考

令人兴奋的新交通方式，而且如果他们想，比如，做出某种不同于我在超级高铁中所提方案的架构，那完全没问题。事实上，我们今年早些时候举办的学生竞赛中，获胜团队采用了不同于我所提方案的，嗯，悬浮机制，也就是，我，你知道，我提议的是，本质上利用——利用最终由压缩机在头部积聚起来的，呃，空气，并让它流经空气滑橇，这样你就能同时消除头部的阻力，并提供一种让，让舱体悬浮的方式。嗯，而且这也是某种运行良好的方案，嗯，即使在，呃，超、超音速速度下也可以；你可以达到——已经演示过最高至马赫1。

1，就使用空气轴承而言是这样，但他们使用了不同的东西，我喜欢，呃，是的，基本上是电磁悬浮。嗯，而我没有建议，嗯，某种磁力系统悬浮的原因，比如，是管道的成本必须尽可能降低，这一点非常重要。所以如果你真的想——因为舱体便宜，管道昂贵。所以如果你，如果你想走，比如说400英里，并且你有两个、两个方向，那你就有800英里的管道。关键的，呃，经济优化参数是管道的成本。所以你会希望那条管道的成本尽可能低。因此，如果你，如果你做任何需要在管道一侧采取动作的事情，都会让那条管道贵得多。所以如果你使用空气轴承，它不会

改变，比如，那真的很便宜，而且——是的。那么你认为这会实现吗？是的，我认为类似的东西，我认为未来会有某种东西实现。嗯，你知道，这，我觉得，我觉得，如果，如果那些正在尝试、正在尝试促成它的公司，如果，如果出于某种原因，那没有成功，嗯，那么，你知道，我觉得我会，你知道，我会，我将来可能会亲自做点什么。我不想做什么——我不知道我是否——我不想有点抢在他们前面，你知道，就像说，这是一个免费的想法，然后与此同时我自己跑去做它，你知道，那样不太好。所以，嗯，所以但如果他们，如果一群人，如果公司不尝试，而且它没有成功，那么我觉得，我觉得，嗯，我觉得我会努力至少

做一个演示系统，你知道。好的，最后一个问题，你认为科技已经变得更严肃了吗？作为一个，你知道，很有名的人，你怎么看科技版图？你大概称得上是一位有远见的人。这个概念——你认为我们目前在科技领域处于什么位置？然后我们会回答观众的问题。我认为许多不同领域正在发生大量创新。嗯，我认为人工智能方面的进步相当、相当惊人，遗传学方面的进步令人惊叹。所以我认为确实有大量创新正在发生。我觉得互联网领域可能有点太多有才华的创业者，而我认为他们的才华其实用在其他一些行业会更好。嗯，但我确实认为

我的意思是，我不认为我们正面临某种创新低潮期或诸如此类的情况。我认为有大量创新正在发生。他们需要转向其他——我只是觉得，比如，如果有某种理想分布，可能会少一些，比如，有太多人才专注于互联网，而其中一部分人才放到其他行业可能会更好。大概就这些。但正在发生的创新数量巨大。嗯，有一件我认为会相当重要的事，嗯，而且，而且它——没有，我不知道有哪家公司在认真研究它，就是，嗯，就是神经蕾丝。嗯，所以，你知道，回到人工智能的情况，嗯，这是一场相当重要的，呃，相当重要的讨论

比如，如果你假设人工智能以任何速度进步，嗯，我们都会被远远甩在后面。嗯，所以到那时我们可能会处于，你知道，良性的——但即便是在良性的情况下，如果你拥有某种，你知道，如果你拥有超级智能的人工智能，嗯，我们在智力上都会，你知道，比它们低太、太多，以至于那会像是，你知道，一只宠物。那就像一只宠物，一只猫，一只猫，就像一所房子——是的，我们喜欢家猫，对吧？嗯，而且，嗯，是的，所以那，那不是世界末日，你知道，只是没有那种——你看过那部电影。它可能会，它可能会，它可能会，嗯，那个，你知道，所以那个——但老实说，那会是良性情景。嗯，所以当家猫也还行。我的意思是，我不喜欢成为居家男人的想法。好吧，但解决方案是什么？是的，所以我认为

这个，嗯，我觉得，我觉得它，我觉得本质上，我认为其中一种解决方案，也许看起来最好的解决方案，是拥有一个人工智能层。嗯，如果你这样想，比如，你有边缘系统、皮层，然后是一个数字层，也就是皮层之上的某种第3层，它可以与你很好地、共生地运作。我的意思是，就像你的皮层与奥林匹克系统多少有些精神性地运作一样，你的某种第3数字层也可以与其余部分象征性地运作。这是通过外科手术植入的东西，还是繁育进这个物种里的，或者是什么？根本限制是输入输出。所以我们已经拥有，呃，我们已经是赛博格了。嗯，只是，我的意思是，你在网上有一个数字版本的自己，或者自己的部分版本

其形式是你的电子邮件、社交媒体，以及你所做的一切，而且你基本上在这方面拥有超能力。借助你的电脑、手机以及上面的应用程序，你拥有的能力比20年前的美国总统还强。你可以回答任何问题，可以与任何地方的任何人进行视频会议，可以立即向数百万人发送消息。你知道，你就是能做令人难以置信的事情。而，嗯，但限制在于输入输出。所以我们受I/O限制，嗯，尤其受输出限制。我的意思是，比如，你的输出水平非常低，比如尤其是在手机上，你的两个拇指就那样不停敲击。嗯，这慢得荒谬。我们的输入要好得多，因为我们拥有高带宽视觉界面

进入大脑，就像我们的眼睛接收大量、大量的数据，所以输入和输出之间存在许多个数量级的差异，所以以共生方式与，呃，数字智能有效融合，主要围绕着消除输入输出约束展开，所以它会是某种直接的皮层接口，而你称它为神经、神经织网，对，嗯，它完全不是谷歌眼镜，对吧？不是，我说的是某种东西。你会佩戴它吗，还是不？不是，我是说它会，呃，我是说，我是说有几种方法可以实现这一点，但会是某种直接与你的皮层神经元连接的接口，尤其是——但那不适用于手术植入吗？不一定，你可以通过静脉和动脉，因为那提供了一条通往你所有神经元的完整道路，你的

神经元是能量消耗大户，所以它们需要高血流量，因此你的静脉和动脉自然就构成了一张通往神经元的道路网络。还是某种手术，对吧？嗯，是的，但你可以把某种东西插入，你知道，基本上，你知道，插入颈静脉，然后让它——听起来有点瘆人，但听上去真的很容易，而且不涉及，它不，它不涉及，你知道，比如把你的、就是你的头骨切开之类的。对，而且你也不再是一只家猫了，对吧？一只家猫。所以，嗯，我是说，本质上，如果、如果我们能弄清楚如何在我们自己与你的数字自我之间有效建立一个高带宽神经接口，嗯，那么，呃，那么你就不再是一只家猫了，你知道。好，就说到这里。不，就说到这，对。

嗯，我就说最后一件事，我是说，我觉得这可能是，你是否参与，你是否对最佳结果的那部分感兴趣，我想，你是否有兴趣探索你刚刚提出的这种可能性，总得有人去做。我不是说我会做，但我是说总得有人去做。我是说，我，我，我是说，应该有人去做，而且我是说，如果没人去做，那么我，那么我想我或许应该去做，但是，呃，而且，而且这样做的目标是防止出现一个外部的，呃，AI，尤其是一个由一小群人控制的 AI，它可能，是的，比我们强大和聪明得多，以至于房子在某些情况下会像神一样。是的。嗯，这真的很令人愉快，谢谢。是的，但如果，但是如果我们能够建立——我之前还在担心小行星。

在这件事开始的时候，我是说，在与我们相关的时间尺度上，小行星是一种低概率的生存威胁。嗯。好吧，好吧，这不一样，这需要紧迫行动。那么你平时做什么消遣？是的，这很像埃隆，你平时做什么消遣？消遣，你做什么？做任何事？我和孩子们一起玩电子游戏。好吧，听起来不错。我们来听几个问题吧。来吧，埃隆，家猫。我看电影。是的，我觉得是些正常的事情。好吧，我们何不从这边开始。是的，嗨，我觉得卡尔刚才的最后一个问题正好引出了这个，我想知道，你如何承受我们刚刚听说的、你经历过的那种压力，以及你肩负的那种抱负，然后你又如何调整日常工作与生活的平衡等等那些

你生活中的事情，这其实有一点涉及你的个人一面。所以你非常忙，这是怎么运作的？是的，我是说，我很多时候有点处于工作分诊模式。呃，看起来只要 SpaceX 和 Tesla 不同时出现危机，就还好。呃，但是你知道，公司是——我是说，任何一家公司的情况，尤其是那种，你知道，如果它增长得比较快、有点像准初创公司的话，它在某种程度上是呈正弦波动的。所以，我是说，只要你不——如果这些波浪不是同时到达顶峰，就还好，你知道。呃，当这种情况确实发生时，那就会造成巨大的压力。现在事情就像，你知道，平稳向前推进，没什么问题。呃，而且我已经载入了两家公司的联系人，我大致能看到一条通往

良好结果的路径，所以我现在感觉相当不错，但过去也有过压力极大的时期，而且，而且然后，你知道，然后我总是努力为孩子们留出时间，因为我喜欢和他们待在一起。比如，我是说，孩子真的很棒。我是说，就像，呃，在那些时间里，他们，他们让你更快乐。他们的孩子很棒，你知道。是的。呃，然后还有那 1%，1%，你知道，就像，是的，1%。但是，但是，就像，在我生活中的一切事物里，我会说孩子绝对最能让我快乐。我是说，我不知道，你知道。我同意。是的，那很好。我同意。是的。呃，所以和他们待在一起，比如，所以，比如，不是，比如，很多时候孩子有点沉浸在自己的世界里，所以你不需要，比如，他们不想和他们的爸爸交谈

连续几个小时，我注意到通常是这样。是的。呃，所以，比如，呃，所以我可以和他们待在同一个房间里，他们可以时不时和我说话，但是，比如，你知道，我可以处理一些电子邮件，做一些工作，然后他们想和我说话的时候随时都可以。呃，然后我们会尽量做些事情，比如，呃，你知道，去不同的地方旅行，还有，呃，就像我说的，我们一起玩电子游戏，或者其实星期一我们去了环球影城新的哈利·波特园区。呃，非常有趣。是的。所以我觉得环球影城的某个人刚刚鼓掌了。是的，不管是谁负责哈利·波特园区，都做得非常出色，真的很好。是的，那很好，我强烈推荐。是的，黄油啤酒棒极了。是的，我刚才还在说黄油啤酒棒极了。是的。好吧，这边。嗨，我的名字

是埃文·伯恩斯，是 Odyssey 的创始人，我希望未来能进入航天行业做点事情。我的好奇之处是，你谈到过 SpaceX 进入许多不同的业务，比如通过发射许多卫星提供全球 Wi-Fi。你希望 SpaceX 成为其他人开展业务的平台，还是认为 SpaceX 会成为一家推出许多业务线的企业？呃，嗯，我是说，SpaceX 的总体策略是，比如，我们显然需要大量资金，才能开发出在火星上建立一座城市所需的运输系统。所以，你知道，我们就像在汇集收入，比如基于地球的收入，那就是我们正努力最大化的收入。还有一些其他的地球收入。嗯，现在只有地球，所以我们必须最大化与

太空有关的地球收入，你知道，也就是与火箭和航天器有关的收入。所以，呃，但我觉得，比如，假设 SpaceX 能够把大量人员和货物运往火星，它将会极大地促进火星上的创业活动。呃，因为会有太多事情要做。呃，你知道，从建造第一座铁矿石精炼厂，到第一家披萨店，再到，呃，你知道，某种甚至在地球上都不存在的东西。呃，这有点像联合太平洋铁路，呃，横穿、碾过，你知道，而且所有人都觉得，你知道，这真是个愚蠢的想法，你知道，比如，加利福尼亚根本没人住。好吧，现在加利福尼亚住着相当多的人。所以，所以只要，呃，拥有它，你需要那条运输线路，所以什么

SpaceX 正试图做的是建立运输通道，嗯，然后努力为火星上的创业者创造一个有利环境，让他们蓬勃发展，嗯，而且而且我认为这将是创业活动一次惊人的，嗯，扩展。从火星送一份披萨要多久？嗯，我想它会有点凉，但我的意思是，我们肯定能找到办法在不到3个月内抵达火星，而且我认为最终你将能够在不到1个月内抵达火星。随着你缩短时间，难度确实会呈指数级增长，嗯，但是，嗯，不过你知道，可以把3个月当作一个参考，嗯，而且我想那很可能，你知道，那就是 SpaceX 真正会，我认为，创造一个让创业潜力充分发挥的绝佳环境。谢谢，尼拉克。我希望达美乐不要

抵达火星，请别让它拥有一个特别特别的火星，呃。所以你显然雄心勃勃，嗯，这导致了一些非常激进但未能实现的截止日期。所以猎鹰重型最初定在2012年。

嗯，Model X 稍微推迟了一点，Model 3——Model X 推迟了，Model 3 似乎也在延期，但尤其是 Model 3，它是一款消费产品。面对一个确实非常激进的生产计划和数量巨大的订单，你正在收人们的钱。这次面对的是真正的消费者，是一大群人，你打算怎么做才能按时完成？当然，我认为最重要的事情就是在设计汽车时，嗯，为制造而设计。所以就 Model S 而言，Model S 是我们第一次真正制造一辆汽车，呃，一辆完整的汽车。像 Roadster，是莲花制造车身和底盘，我们制造动力总成，然后我们算是最后把动力总成安装到底盘上。但 Model S 是第一次

我们造了一辆汽车，所以我们当时只是努力造出一辆很棒的汽车，而且但我们根本不知道，像是，把某样东西设计得可制造意味着什么。所以 Model S 制造起来超级困难，然后 Model X 是基于 Model S 平台打造的，只不过它还有一大堆其他令人眼花缭乱的技术，让它更难制造。所以，嗯，而且，呃，你知道，所以就像，我的意思是，我们肯定希望采取与 X 的做法相反的方式，嗯，也就是制造出一种会简单得多的东西，嗯，但仍然是一辆人们会喜爱的汽车，而且每一项设计决策都会把可制造性考虑进去，呃，实际上还要确保当我们设计某样东西时，嗯，你能按照计划，以可负担的价格进行大批量生产，而那个计划会，那个

在我们所瞄准的计划时间表上，嗯，让汽车变得非常困难的一件事，特别是如果它是一款新车，呃，就是它是一种集成产品，拥有数千个独特零部件。所以我们在某种程度上受制于最慢的那个零部件，不管它究竟是什么。我的意思是，如果你进一步算上二级和三级供应商，最终会有数千家供应商。所以，所以事情的进展速度取决于最倒霉、能力最差的供应商，嗯，你知道，但但是，仅仅——你可以想想，像是，任何你能说得出名字的自然灾害，我们的供应商都遭遇过。他们的工厂被烧毁过，发生过地震，发生过，你知道，海啸，发生过，呃，特大冰雹，发生过龙卷风，呃，那艘船

沉了，墨西哥边境发生了枪战，嗯，不是开玩笑，嗯，那一度导致后备厢地毯延误。嗯，就像，而且我们拿不到，而且就像，然后就像边境巡逻队不肯把卡车交给我们，因为它上面像是有弹孔，嗯，我们只是想拿回我们的后备厢地毯，嗯，就像，它很安全，里面像是没有可卡因之类的东西，所以很好，嗯，但你知道，作为一个例子，那让生产线停工了好几天，嗯。所以，所以最大的问题就是，像是，供应链方面的事情真的很棘手，嗯，我们正努力尽可能多地预见这类情况，增加我们的可选择余地，让 Tesla 拥有更多内部能力，并不是说我们想在内部做这些事情，但如果供应商无法或不愿，呃，交付零部件，我们就能迅速

在内部做到这一点，所以我认为整个公司都是为此而调整、调整的，嗯，而且，嗯，我的意思是，目前看来，你知道，我们应该能够做到，我们预计能做到。我的意思是，Model 3 几乎所有的设计都已经完成了，嗯，我们的目标是基本上[音乐]在大约6周后停笔，完全停笔。嗯，而且我们正在把所有那些，你知道，比如未来很酷的想法，都先搁置起来，我们会在未来年份的第2版、第3版之类的版本中加入。所以，嗯，总体而言，我感觉相当不错，嗯，而且我们的供应商，尤其是我们的主要供应商合作伙伴，一直都，嗯，非常支持，也都已经加入进来。嗯，但是，嗯，你知道，呃，我的意思是，有一件事我应该说，比如，比如当我，当我算是给出一个时间表时，它实际上就是我认为

真实的时间表，它，它不是什么连我自己都不认为是真的虚假时间表，嗯。所以，我的意思是，呃，你知道，从来不会，你知道，我，它，嗯，我可能是在妄想，这完全，你知道，是有可能的，也许这种情况偶尔发生过，但它，它，它绝不会是，嗯，你知道，某个明知是假的截止日期，绝不会。所以，6周后会不会有一场活动？我们将宣布自动驾驶已被纳入 Model 3 的停笔计划。

我们预计6周内不会发生任何事件，呃，乔希，你好，嗯，我有一个，这算是个有点奇怪的问题，我觉得你会是那个能给出正确答案的人，有一个，嗯，某种哲学概念，即一个足够先进的文明将能够创造，呃，某种模拟。是的，也许你以前回答过这个，一个模拟。我进行过太多关于模拟的讨论了，简直疯了。好吧，所以事实上，事情发展到了这样一个地步，基本上每次谈话都是人工智能、人工智能斜杠模拟的谈话，嗯，我和我弟弟最后约定，嗯，如果我们在热水浴缸里，就禁止这种谈话，那就像这里这样，因为这真的会把它们毁掉。所以所以所以这个想法是，对吧，任何足够先进的文明都会创造

能够创造一个像我们的存在一样的模拟，于是该理论进一步认为，也许我们身处模拟之中。你有没有想过这个，而且想过很多？我们真的有那么常泡热水浴缸，以至于必须在热水浴缸里禁止它吗？[笑声] 好吧，这不是最性感的谈话。我们是不是身处，我们是不是身处，嗯，那个那个，我的意思是，我认为是这样，请记住，比如，支持我们身处模拟之中的最有力论据，可能是同化，我认为是下面这个，嗯，那个那个40 40 40年前，我们有Pong，像两个矩形和一个点，那就是当时的游戏。现在40年后，我们有照片级真实感的3D模拟，有数百万人同时游玩，而且它每年都在变得更好，很快我们将拥有，你知道，虚拟现实的增强现实

如果你假定存在任何改进速度，那么游戏将变得与现实无法区分，就是本能上的，嗯，即使这种进步速度下降到现在的千分之一，嗯，那你只要说，好吧，那我们就说这是未来10000年，这在进化尺度上根本算不了什么，所以，嗯，所以所以，鉴于我们显然正沿着一条轨迹前进，将拥有与现实无法区分的游戏，而且这些游戏可以在任何机顶盒、个人电脑或任何设备上运行，并且可能会有，你知道，数十亿台这样的，呃，你知道，计算机或机顶盒，那么似乎可以由此推断，我们身处基础现实的概率是数十亿分之一。所以告诉我，这个论证错在哪里？答案是肯定的吗？这个论证

可能是，比如，这个论证里有没有流程，我的意思是，但有人，我不确定错误在哪里。不不，这个论证讲得通。那么假设就是有人比我们先做到了，而这是一场游戏。不不，这是基础现实的概率是数十亿分之一。哦，好吧。你怎么想？嗯，我认为是数十亿分之一。好吧，我的意思是，这似乎显然就是它，你知道，所所所表明的，对吧？而且实际上，我的意思是，可以说我们应该希望那是真的，因为否则，如果如果文明停止进步，那么那可能是因为某个灾难性事件抹去了文明。所以也许我们应该希望这是一个模拟，因为否则——所以他们可以重启它？嗯，不然我们要么会创造

与现实在工业上无法区分的模拟，要么文明将不复存在。这就是两个选项。是啊，我喜欢这样的几率。好吧，好吧，我们要，它不太可能进入某种，比如，你知道，身家数百万者的停滞状态，所以它要么会增长，要么会衰退。你好，我是来自Box的G2 Patel，呃，有一个分成两部分的问题要问你。一个是，嗯，如果你考虑已经通过监管审批、已经通过城市内驾驶和交通状况考验的全自动驾驶车辆，从时间框架的角度看，你认为我们距离其成为现实还有多远？第二，也就是这个问题的第二部分，是还要多久，你认为人类

在道路上驾驶才会变得违法，或者贵得令人极难负担？嗯，我，我的意思是，我认为，我的意思是，我真的会认为自动驾驶基本上是一个已经解决的问题，嗯，即使是在北京这样的城市。是的，是的，实际上，确实只有一个，嗯，领域有点不稳妥，那基本上就是，如果你在城市环境中以大约30 30到40英里每小时的速度行驶，而这在北京很难实现，嗯，就像交通拥堵。在在在交通密集的情况下，自动驾驶真的很容易，嗯，因为你只需与各辆车保持固定距离。这实际上相当相当容易，嗯，你极不可能降低到撞倒任何人，因为你移动得不够快，而且你可以及时停下来。在高速公路上，特别是那些，嗯，设有隔离栏的高速公路，所以

那样就没有行人，那也相对容易。而且，比如，现在Model S和Model X能够以高于人类的安全性自动驾驶。我的重点是，什么时候会发展到你不需要坐在一辆车后面，而社会实际上开始期待的方式是，我可以让不会说任何英语、也不会开车的75岁母亲，仅仅独自坐在车里并被载着，就能从A点被运送到B点。我知道这在技术上是可行的，但你认为这种情况获得监管批准还需要多久？我认为我们距离完全自动驾驶基本上，嗯，不到2年。哇。嗯，是完全的，比人类更安全，嗯，不过监管机构将需要，嗯，

我认为至少还要1年，至少还要1年，而且具体要选，这将取决于你身处世界的哪个地区，因为他们会希望看到数十亿英里的数据，以证明从统计上确实如此，也就是自动驾驶与非自动驾驶相比，安全性有显著提高。我不认为监管机构会接受某种接近的、某种某种某种大致和人类一样好的东西。我认为它们必须至少比人类好2倍，也许在安全性方面，嗯，你知道，好5倍或10倍，嗯，而且而且这必须是，必须是一个具有统计相关性的数据集，比如在差异广泛的道路和情况下行驶数十亿英里。所以，是的，你知道，那是，我认为大概是

从监管角度看，大概还要3年它才能彻底通过，但不到2年它就会，呃，在技术上成为可能。你认为会有一天人类驾驶是违法的吗，或者，嗯，你知道，嗯，我的意思是，我们生活在民主制度下，所以那大概会取决于民众的决定，嗯，我的意思是，我，我的意思是，我不赞成禁止人们驾驶汽车，嗯，比如，我赞成自由，嗯，而且而且不限制人们做什么，嗯，是的，但也许取得驾照的要求会变得更严格。我认为那似乎可能是一个不错的举措，你知道，所以你必须展现更高水平的驾驶技能，才能获准手动驾驶。好吧，绝对是最后一个问题，这是最后一个，让它成为一个好问题。抱歉，因为

埃隆得走了，得让它成为一个很棒的问题。呃，再想想火星上的生活，你是怎么、你是怎么看待文化统一、政府制度，呃，法治规则，以及很早就建立起这些东西的？嗯，我想我刚才已经宣布自己是苔藓之王了。我喜欢。是的，接受吧。是的，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢。嗯，所以，这个，呃，我认为火星上最可能的政府形式会是直接、直接民主，嗯，不是代议制，所以会由人们直接对、对议题投票。嗯，我认为那可能更好，因为，比如说，与代议制民主相比，直接民主中的腐败可能性会大幅降低。所以我认为那可能就是会出现的形式。嗯，这个，我、我认为有一些，我认为，所以我会建议，比如

对法律的惯性作一些调整是明智的，也就是说，废除一项法律或许应该比制定一项法律更容易。嗯，我觉得，你知道，这就是，我只会说，让我们就，我是说，我认为、我认为那可能、可能是好事，因为法律就是拥有无限寿命，除非它们被废除。嗯，所以我想我的建议会是，比如、比如说，假设需要60的人来，呃，投票通过一项法律，但在任何时候，超过40%的人都可以废除它。嗯，而且任何法律都应该带有一个日落条款，带有一个内置的日落条款；如果它不够好，无法再次获得投票通过，也许它就不该存在。所以那就是、那就是火星政府的框架，我是说，那会是我的，那些会是我的建议：直接民主。

在那里，制定法律比废除法律稍微更难一些，而且法律不会自动永远存在，你会成为一位好国王，谢谢你，埃隆·马斯克，谢谢

elon let me start by saying we're very glad you're here safe and sound yeah uh thanks uh unfortunately i had to circumvent late i was uh flying i flew here with the landing gear down because it was like some kind of landing gear issue landing gear was stuck there's some kind of warning light and my pilot said that if they were attracted to the landing gear it may not go back down again so that's all so this is probably best this even happens to you yeah yeah okay outlining your problems of various kinds um so um anyway we're happy to wait for you and we're glad you got here safe thanks for having me it's great to see you guys thank you for coming i really appreciate it you kept your promise which was nice i think you were drunk when you promised me but

that's okay i'll take it so you know in a couple of years since you've come you've done some astonishing things in in terms of substantive stuff with your with both your companies um let's start talking about space and what you've been doing there um obviously you've had some success uh landing the landing the rocket you've had you know you've done a bunch of other things where people thought you weren't going to be successful talk a little bit about sort of the progress you think you've made with spacex sure well i mean there's a lot of things where i think i didn't think we'd be successful so the the um and the most significant thing is being able to land in an orbit class rocket uh brew stage um and uh and bring it both back to cape canaveral land

on land and be able to land on a drone ship out in the ocean the there is a bit of an education process that's needed to understand orbital dynamics um because a lot of people are confused of like why the heck are you landing a ship landing a rocket in a on a ship in the ocean that seems pretty inconvenient and the reason is because that going up and staying up is actually about velocity horizontal to the earth's surface so um there's a huge difference between space and or space and or and orbit like space you could think of as like say being the international waters boundary for the pacific ocean like if you go you know uh 100 miles offshore you're technically out of coastal waters now you're in the pacific so it's like technically you're in the pacific

but but it's but orbit is like circumnavigating the globe it's a really giant difference and the the reason that things go up and stay up is because you're zooming around the earth so fast that your outward radial acceleration is equal to the inward acceleration of gravity and so those balance out and you have a net zero gravity so when you see the space station the thing this little little sort of um counterintuitive is that the space station is actually zooming around the earth at 17 000 miles an hour even though it seems like it seems really still you know but it's moving really really fast um i mean to put that into perspective um a bullet from a 45 gun in a handgun is is is just below the speed of sound so the space station is going more than 25

times faster than that and that's what's needed actually to go up and stay up and that's why that's why there's the term escape velocity not escape altitude there's no such thing as an escape altitude there's only an escape velocity you need to be a certain speed to escape the gravity of the earth yeah you can think of gravity as kind of a funnel in space-time um so think of it like a coin funnel like it really it's very much like that in in you know but it's obviously a sort of a four-dimensional coin funnel but uh if you if you spin a spin a marble or a coin on a coin funnel the when it's when it's far out it sort of spins slowly and then as it gets closer it spins faster and faster and if you want if you want if you were to start at the bottom of the

coin funnel and you wanted to to to to to exit you'd spin it horizontally and it would it would spin out and and and that's really how you how you get to orbit um yeah so how does the gravity well there's like a funnel why you want to land on the on a ship in the ocean because in order to get to orbit you all that matters is your horizontal velocity your altitude is just doesn't really matter um in fact the the um the force of gravity at i say the nominal um boundary of space 100 kilometers is almost exactly the same as it is on the surface of the earth um is it like if it's a few percent lower than the surface of the earth um uh so in order to go up and stay up the only thing that matters is how fast are you going horizontal to the earth's surface so

you have that outward radial acceleration or think of it like maybe like tetherball or something like that it's really that outward acceleration is the thing that matters and so when the rocket is going to orbit um the only reason it's going up is to get out of the thick part of the atmosphere because that at high velocity the atmosphere is thick as molasses and so it goes up very briefly but if you look at a long exposure of the the rocket's trajectory you'll see it it goes up but immediately curves over and starts going horizontal and so the um at the at the point at which the uh the uh at the point which the stages separate those two stages um the primary boost stage which is the most expensive part of the rocket the point which that that staging occurs

uh can be um as high as uh mach 10 but it's so it's going away from the launch site at 10 times the speed of sound so in order to get back to the launch site you would have to have enough uh fuel and oxygen to reverse out that velocity and and and boost back all the way to the launch site and you just don't have the physics of it don't really allow you to have that much it's not about saving money on fuel or anything it's just physically impossible so because another sort of thing about uh if you're if you're in space is that there's nothing to react against so like whereas an aircraft can can circle very easily because it's reacting against air in vacuum there's nothing to react against so the only way to go back the other direction is to apply just

as much energy as it took you to go if you want to go backwards you have to apply just as much energy as it took you to go forwards in fact or twice as much really because you've got to zero it out and then you've got to you've got to land elsewhere yeah so bottom line is this thing is zinging out just zinging out yeah it's super at ten times faster than the foot it may well be over the ocean because the ocean covers most of the oh it's it's actually at the point of separation it's not that far away it's maybe 100 kilometers away from the launch site but it is going like hell in the opposite you know away from the launch site so the the only way to really land it is to have it continue on that arc that ballistic arc and then land far out to sea on a ship

that's that's pre-positioned to a particulate uh latitude and longitude very very precise to within about a meter um and then the rocket will um then go from vacuum through rarefied air at hypersonic velocity uh um and what so what is it when it's in vacuum it has to obviously you can't use aerosurfaces you have to use nitrogen jets to control the the attitude and position and then as it starts to encounter the air we use grid fins because grid fins look like sort of like a waffle they work quite well across a wide regime from both very high velocity hypersonics through supersonic transonic and subsonic so it's hard it's hard to have arrow surfaces that work well across that entire regime and then uh so once the error forces become high it uses the um

the four grid fins to to sort of control its attitude to land itself yeah it's controlling its it's controlling picture and roll with with the grid fins um and uh and then once and those griffins will then position it to where it's fairly close to the ship and then it will light in this case three of the nine engines to arrest the velocity and then drop to one engine for precision right before landing right okay so that's super [ __ ] hard there's a video so why why is that important why has that this moment been important for you um well so in order to reuse the the boost stage which is about 70 percent of the cost of rockets so that what cost is that how much is that um well i mean it's sort of on the order of 30 to 35 million right so you want to save

that yeah i mean it's like i try to i tell my team it's like imagine there was a pallet of cash that was vomiting through the atmosphere and it was going to burn up and smash into tiny pieces would you try to save it right right right probably yes yes okay yeah that sounds like a good idea right okay um so so yeah so we we want to get it back and that way um we don't have to make another one right um and i think it's quite tragic if rockets like get smashed into tiny pieces and land can i ask you a question we've been in we've been going to space for uh what 50 years or something like that nobody until you started doing this and jeff bezos company has done it uh the government never sort of saved the rockets they never saved the pallet of cash why not

and the russians didn't either i mean what was the deal there yeah i mean there was some attempt uh made to do that with the space shuttle but there was no um return it's the first time that that a rocket boost has returned to launch site right um from an orbital mission and and certainly the first time that there's been a landing on a ship but the regular rockets that went up that weren't designed like planes never tried to do this right um the plane thing is not not a good idea in my view so the the plane um and the reason i think it's like intuitively it seems like a plane should work but but actually if you consider that really every mode of transport has a design that is appropriate to its medium and if you're in space wings are not very useful because

there's no air and and and then if you want to go somewhere other than earth there's also no runways so this is these are important considerations so that's why when they went to the moon they used propulsive landing right but what i'm saying was when they built the space shuttle it sort of was like a looked like a kind of bulb i think that appealed to congress yeah yeah it went cool that's cool yeah looks like an airplane can you explain that you know jeff jeff good one jeff bezos was here last night and i asked him what's the difference between what you're doing and what elon musk is doing and he said well i think we have uh i think use the word like-minded in the general sense of it and then he went on to explain some differences do you and then he

but he talked about and correct me if i'm misquoting him but i think he was saying where this is all about laying the foundations of being able to do greater things by getting the basic infrastructure of being able to reuse these rockets down right do you is that correct do you have a similar starting point from him and you're thinking i mean i think there's certainly some similarities of opinion um i think both jeff and i believe that it's important for the future to be a space faring civilization um and not to ultimately be out there among the stars and i think that's the that's the exciting inspiring future that i think i think certainly people in this room want and anyway particularly after seeing that the asteroids are going to destroy the planet

i mean um i mean i don't view it as um you know we want we i mean i think i think what when i say you know multi-planets species like that's really where we want to be it's not like you know solving a single planet species but moving planets it's it's really being a multi-planet species um and having civilization and life as we know it extend beyond earth to the rest of the solar system and ultimately to other star systems um i think that's the thing that that's that's the future that's exciting and inspiring and i think that's what you know i think you know any kind of you need things like that to make to to to be glad to wake up in the morning you know like life like life can't be just about solving problems like they have to be things that are inspiring

and exciting that make you glad to be alive so what in the immediate time frame what is what is your goal for spacex now that you've done this which is a huge accomplishment what is the plan for you in the immediate time and then the longer range sure so the um so we plan to refly uh one of the landed rocket boosters hopefully in about two or three months something like that and and then that that so that'll be an important milestone um so far the the stages are looking like quite quite good um even though they come through through quite there's a really difficult entry reentry situation um but they're looking like they're in good shape um we now have four of them so we want to start re-flying them you know towards the end of summer and then hopefully

by the end of this year we'll be launching falcon heavy uh which will be the um the most powerful rocket uh in the world by more than a factor of two so falcon heavy is will be on the order of five million pounds of thrust on liftoff which is about two-thirds the size of a saturn v oh really yeah so that's the rocket that took the astronauts to the moon right exactly so in fact we're launching from the same from the same pad from very same pattern the apollo 11 pad wow yeah that's amazing so i'm hoping to launch that falcon heavy by the end of this year yeah that's that's our aspiration is that now that's somewhat of a delay from when you first hoped to launch it right um yeah um but uh the i mean it's not like we had a lot of pressing customers who wanted

us to launch it okay so the in fact the first launch will will not have any operational satellites it'll be a demonstration launch and the the first operational flights where customers actually want us to launch it or next year you know whereas there's there's a lot of customers who want us to launch uh falcon 9 so about about a quarter of our launch of our flights are for uh for nasa but three quarters or commercial satellites like broadcasting communications satellites um or science missions for other countries um and um and this is there's quite a quite a backlog and we had we had an issue with the rocket last year so that put about a six month hole in our schedule so we're sort of backlogged on on our launches and we're trying to get them out as as

quickly as we as we can um and you know you know service our customers the the uh so the launches will take place you know every two to four weeks there's quite quite a high launch cable that's a much faster cadence than nasa had right um yeah it's i mean it's it'll be more launches than any anything else in the world um so more than russia more than europe more than well more than china by next year certainly and largely to deliver customers exactly yeah it's um there's a lot of broadcasting communication satellites that are going to geosynchronous orbit um and um and then there's we're we'll also be launching the new uh iridium constellation so that iridium's got a next generation uh constellation of uh satellites i think 60 or 70 satellites quite you

know decent-sized satellites that that'll be like many orders of magnitude improvement over the current iridium system so you'll be able to have global broadband um so that'll be a whole bunch of launches and um yeah and then and then next year we'll be flying um dragon version two which is the one that's capable of taking up to seven astronauts to the space station in fact dragon 2 really is it's a propulsive lander as well um and it'll be the uh it's it's intended to carry astronauts to the space station but it's also capable of being a general science delivery platform to anywhere in the solar system so um so where are you going with it we're going to we're going to send one to mars in 2018.

now let's 2018 that's for sure a couple years a couple years now will you be on that flight no you have talked about this you said you don't want to you want to die on mars just not on landing right is that correct well i mean i think if you're going to choose a place to die then mars is probably you know not a bad choice all right um but you're not right it's not some sort of martian death wish or something but but uh yeah i mean you're gonna be born on earth on mars so sending this up to mars 2018 right setting this up to mars 2018 when will someone like you get there from your plans sure so so the 2018 mission would be a drag dragon version 2 right and that um i wouldn't recommend traveling to mars in in that because i mean it has the interior volume

of a large suv okay uh the trip the trip for dragon would be on the order of six months it's a long time to spend in an suv i think it's it can be done can be done but not not probably not ideal um and it also doesn't have the capability of getting back to us right that's that seems more important than the space system yeah we can put that in the fine print you know yeah sorry yeah it's it's like the side effects and a drug ad by the way we cannot get back to earth yeah we saw the movie we didn't know what happened he got back yeah yeah um so it was good i actually enjoyed the movie um so do you think he could have gotten back like that was that plausible i thought there was some you know connection though it was it was mostly it was like 80 percent scientifically

correct um but that did connect a series of improbable events such as well i mean i don't think you can sort of just uh take off from oz um on an unguided rocket really and and then hook your finger on the space suit and navigate to us to a spaceship right yeah not not impossible just extremely unlikely so the sandwich but if you're matt damon maybe maybe you have some mad skills yeah for sure so so so when will people like yourself get there and i assume you'll be first in line for that yeah so uh later this year in september at the um iac which is the big uh sort of world space conference industry space conference i'm going to be presenting the uh the architecture for mars colonization so i think what really matters is being able to transport uh large

numbers of people and um ultimately millions and tons of cargo to mars um and that's what's necessary in order to create a self-sustaining and and not really self-sustaining but a growing uh city on mars i'm curious have you been to space yet no why i mean you could just go up right for a little bit or not oh i could i suppose yeah why haven't you like walked through well at some point or something or yeah yeah probably will will you do a moon test before you go to mars um yeah i mean probably probably i don't know go to orbit in four or five years or something like that but again space and orbit are very different things but on the mars thing would you send up two or three whether it's you or not i kind of would prefer if you tried it frankly but um

because it would be exciting but um would you send up some people some people before you do this whole architecture for colonizing mars just a handful of people to kind of see what i mean the basic game plan is like we're gonna uh send um a mission to mars with every mars opportunity from 2018 onwards so and they occur approximately every 26 months so um you know we we're establishing cargo flights to mars that people can count on uh for cargo and it's like said the the earth moths opel rendezvous is only every 26 months so there's one in 2018 there'll be another one 2020 and i think if things go according to plan we should be able to uh we should be able to launch people probably in 2024 with arrival in 2025.

is that is that a more certain schedule than united airlines well um i don't know there's certainly some uncertainties associated with that so um let's um i'm going to show you anyway that's the game plan like approximately 2024 to do the first uh to to launch the first um of the mars and on your transport system i want to get back to what you said earlier about a multiple this will be a very big rocket okay very big bigger than 75 yes 20 twice as big or what september i'll tell you you're not going to say anything till september come on very big come on has to be very big like how big is very big so big [Laughter] do you think we should abandon the earth at some point no that way no i think that's great but you have said things why would we have bound

on earth it's really nice here you've said things about we may have to abandon the earth so it's good to have a plan b you've seen what happened before no that was amazing that's like that's amazing i don't know but it wasn't me all right okay it wasn't me like shaggy so let's move to things on this earth let's move to uh hyperloop tesla uh other things let's talk about tesla first um where do you feel like the company is at at this point and there's been lots of activity in self-driving cars in autonomous autonomous how do you look at how everybody's jumped in google apple others um and all the car manufacturers um yeah i mean there have been so many announcements of like autonomous ev start-ups i'm waiting for my mom to announce one okay it's like mom

you too um i mean there's a lot so um yeah i mean in in yeah in the us alone there there are four i think maybe five china funded eb startups at the billion dollar plus level like cirrus funding and there's a bunch of startups and then of course the you know the car industry as a whole seems to be moving that direction volkswagen just i think announced a huge battery factory that they're going to build and i think these are all good you know it's good it's good for the industry to moving towards sustainable transport as as quickly as possible um we open sourced our patents to try to be helpful in that regard and um yeah so it's it's encouraging to see all this activity um from a tesla's standpoint you know we're just trying we want to take a set of actions

that are uh likely to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy um so um scale up production as fast as we can so we accelerated plans for the model 3 by two years and so we want to try to get to half a million cars in total in kind of the 2018 time frame which is an aggressive schedule but i think achievable and then maybe a million cars a year by 2020 and um you know i can see it like i think a pretty clear path to get there [Music] autonomy is obviously extremely important people are going to want watch autonomy it's going to be odd to have a car without autonomy in the future but um yeah so i think that's so what we're scaling up how do you look at the all these efforts not your mother but yeah my mom's she's not gonna do it she may do a rocket

situation but um how do you look at each of them let's go through them what google is doing how do you assess what they're doing when you're looking at it because they'll be competitors at some point these are all um eventual competitors well you know i think what what google's i mean google's done a great job of showing the potential of autonomous transport um but they're they're not a they're not a car company so they would potentially you know license their technology to other car companies i think they announced something with the fiat and so i i wouldn't say you know google's a competitor um because they're not a car company that we would compete with somebody perhaps what they licensed technology to but not to them directly right um apple um yeah

that'll be more direct that'll be more direct yeah you can tell that by the hiring pattern and yeah that kind of stuff so what are you okay so they're going to be more direct how do you assess it um i mean i i say like you know i i i think it's great that they're doing this and um i um you know i hope they hope it works out what's what's the time frame for them do you think um i don't know i mean um i think they should have embarked upon this project sooner actually um uh that that uh um but i don't know i don't know when they i mean you know they don't share with me the details of their production plans but um i i i don't think it's going to be i don't think they'll be in volume production sooner than maybe 2020 that'll be like the soonest and that's

is that too late we say they should have embarked sooner is that because 2020 will be too late to stop you or beat you or compete with you or whatever it's just like it's a missed opportunity it's just a that they it's it's um it'll be over by 2020.

i wouldn't just say it's just like it's it's a couple of years i think they'll they'll probably make a good car and probably be successful the car industry is very big so it's not as though there's um you know one company to the exclusion of others i mean it's like a dozen car companies in the world of significance so and the the most that any company has is approximately 10 market share so it's not like um you know somebody comes up with a car and they're suddenly like they kill everyone else it's not not that way um and and the sheer scale of automotive manufacturing is is is just it's hard to appreciate until you see the plants i mean they're gigantic like the industries yeah i mean the the the sheer size of the industrial infrastructure is is staggering

not just the assembly plant but everything else that goes yeah the supply chain exactly the symptoms just a little engine tip of the iceberg really yeah the service plan is literally took the iceberg phenomenal the the supply chain is um you know once you go to tier two tier three two or four suppliers um that's uh probably an order magnitude more uh than that okay so so you think google will not be a competitor probably will be a direct competitor yeah yeah sure what about the car companies the exactly i think they'll all be competitors yeah sure who do you see out there that has done a nice job so far mercedes of what a competitive car of the incumbents potentially competitive car i guess i mean i don't think anyone's any of the car companies thus far

have made um a really great electric car i mean you tell me if i'm if you disagree um but uh i don't think yet that any of them have made a great electric car okay they you know presumably will continue to improve on what they've done so far and and then at some point they may make a car that's that that's uh you know that's a great car but no they haven't done that yet can i ask you about batteries for a second oh yeah sure so you're building this gigafactory right you've got it's built it's well it's not completely both okay but it's part of it's running yeah part of it's a really gigantic thing it's like when the gigafactory is done it'll be the largest footprint building of any kind in the world of any kind not just factories it literally event what

is this the largest rocket the largest building i mean well i mean i think this it's not scale for scale sake it's just like if you say well we want to accomplish these goals then um then you kind of have to be make a big thing okay you've got this big thing it's this big giant building yeah it's going to make batteries the batteries it's going to we're make have an opening we'll start taking the opening party since it's been operating for a little while but we're gonna have a party soon you guys maybe want to come okay numb all right we'll come to the beginning but they can't i love we're seeing this thing come right just this is crazy no this is like an alien dreadnought it's really nutty because i love a battery party but yeah um right but but talk

about where it's going are these lithium-ion batteries yeah sure so they're the same batteries that's in our phone no explain please explain yeah so have you made a battery breakthrough is something i'm interested in um yeah i mean generally the i mean there's there's so much nonsense out there about batteries like about you can believe about one percent of what you read you know maybe lithium ion covers a very broad range of technologies and you can have an enormous difference in the power density and the energy density and the cycle life between one chemistry and another they can be really enormously different so what you really actually want to ask is what is the cathode and what is the anode right um so in our case that's right okay um let's put it

in the but the lithium is actually two percent of the cell mass so it's like the salt in the salad it's it's a very small amount of the cell mass and a fairly small amount of the cost but it sounds like it's big because it's called lithium ion but it it really like i've actually should be called nickel graphite because it's mostly nickel and graphite okay and um it's nickel cobalt aluminum but battery little things and graphite with a silicon oxide layer battery efficiency or power that you know the power that you can store in a certain mass seems to be moved very slowly at least compared to you know we're used to moore's law pushing uh integrated circuits faster batteries kind of are always in our consumer devices always lagging behind in your you've

built this giant thing the biggest building in the world it's ever seen it's not fully built but yes it's you're building a pretty big chunk yeah uh to make batteries your whole business depends on batteries in these cars have you figured out a way to do some significant uh increase in the yield of energy from a given amount of of space in the battery well yeah i mean the the the energy density is increasing sort of maybe on the order of like five-ish percent per year um and it doesn't sound like much but you add that up over a number of years with compound interest it ends up being quite quite a significant number um and a lot of people sort of think that oh well we just sort of cobbled together some laptop batteries and somehow made a great car but

if it was that easy then i think we would have quite a few competitors who did the same thing but but it's it's it's really quite quite a lot harder than that um the it's a cylindrical form form factor but the internals of the battery are quite different from what you would find in uh in a laptop and uh and and will be increasingly different with the what's built at the gigafactory which is highly optimized for automotive um and um and with has improved energy density but but mostly it's not the energy i see that's the issue because we you know you can buy if you buy a model s today um the range is um around 300 miles um and and that's quite a lot um so it's pretty rare that people really need to go more than 300 miles at a time without stopping right

you know um so i don't think we really have a range issue and we could make a 400 mile range car today like that wouldn't be too big of a deal um what really matters is decreasing the cost uh per unit of energy of the battery packs okay so you can make the car affordable that's actually the important thing so there's and there's really two main main dimensions along which uh cost optimization and making something available to the national market can be achieved one is design iteration going through multiple versions of something and then the other is economies of scale you kind of need both of those those things in order to make a compelling mass-market uh product and you look at like cell phones and how many design iterations have we gone through with

cell phones um and and then and and look at the scale at which that they're made which is enormous uh and that's what enables everyone to have a super computer in their pocket um so speaking of that the sales when you're talking about the sales you have booked how many orders for it's on the order of four hundred thousand four hundred thousand four hundred yeah consumer interest and a promise a lot of it around you around the idea of you and tesla and the excitement they're not booking it was quite surprising actually i mean the um because we didn't do any advertising or there was no guerrilla marketing or anything it was just basically like yeah we're gonna have this webcast there was only there were only about a thousand people in the audience um and

um i really caught us by surprise but i think you know when you have a product that really resonates with with customers the word of mouth uh grows like wildfire and that seems to be what yeah but it's a little bit i mean honestly in some groups of especially men in silicon valley if you show up and read like a label of a peanut jar they'd be thrilled with the situation so i mean you a lot of this does base around you like the idea of you and the excitement around this exciting entrepreneur is that is that enough to get it to to this massive company you've been hoping to the idea of this is the elon promise or it's the well i think actually it's not so much i mean sort of um um i i'm not sure i i think i just deserve less credit than that actually the

the uh i mean what what tesla's done with a phenomenal team is like 15 000 people at the company um worked super hard to create compelling products to create great cars um and we start off with the roadster and then the model s and the model s was rated you know by consumer reports as the best car ever got the model x which you know had some has had some teething issues but um i think it's now at the point where it's it's really starting to i think it's really i think quite sublime at this point um and uh and and so people look at that and say okay well if tesla's made these cars then probably the next car they make is going to be you know the less expensive one also a great car and um yeah but you know so it'll be a great car but it'll be affordable

it's like great okay that sounds like something i want so this car this next car the price is it's starting at 35 000 okay affordable okay when do you get to the really affordable then way down much lower than that yeah i mean it's important to point out that the 35 000 particularly when factoring in the lower cost of electricity versus gasoline and that the maintenance cost is much less you don't have to have oil changes you never need to replace your brakes because the car uses regenerative braking so the brakes last as long as the car do that the car does it's basically you just need to replace the tires like that's about about all um so the operational cost of the car is much lower fundamentally than than a gasoline car and and so um and the i think

the the uh average price for cars for gasoline cars is around 30 32 something like that yeah i mean there are starting prices that are lower but but when people pick pick options i believe it's in the around 32 or so in the us so we're pretty close to the that that but that's your base price right i mean though yeah but it's absolutely great may not be the asp for the car no but it's gonna be a great car even at 35.

so it's like even if you order nothing no options at all it'll be great but you're at but you're likely to have a mix where the average car that you actually sell sells for a little more than that yes probably it's probably going to be yeah it's probably going to be some higher number um but it's really important size like the 35 if somebody orders the 35 000 car they'll be very happy like it's not like you need to order a bunch of options in order without which the car is is you know not good that car will have autonomous for 35.

um i have a uh i'm going to do another tesla event maybe at the end of the year um talk more about that and so you could start here um it will be real big news if i start here um we don't mind that let me just say that we're gonna do the obvious thing okay okay got it it's really obvious it's so cool so so cupholders good okay um so really those things are nuanced all right absolutely let's talk about two more things i want to talk about ai because we've been talking about it a lot here um which i want to get it clear what your thoughts are because it's mostly elon scared of robots i mean that kind of thing or what how do you i'm scared of robots um artificial intelligence can you like clarify exactly what the issue you have now and you deserve the background

we've been talking to uh jeff bezos sundar chai uh we talked to mark fields from ford about it um uh yeah the facebook folks um there certainly seems to be uh in the i in the tech companies a big tremendous new drive or interest to believing that we'll be all good for intelligent assistance and it's good it'll make your life better make your life better siri is going to suddenly get smart microsoft one is going to get smart and google is going to cream them all largely a happy version of this is going to sometimes technology hurts you but not as much as it helps you that's really yeah so that's there's been a lot of conversation here about that sure and yet and you've staked out a slightly different position so can you talk about that well i mean i think

my sort of full position would require quite a long explanation um i mean i i am concerned about um certain directions that ai could take that would be uh not good for the future that the i mean it i i think it'd be fair to say that like not all ai futures are benign not not all okay um and and so if you have something if if this if we create some digital super intelligence that exceeds us in every way by a lot um it's very important that that be benign um and um and so actually with with uh with a few others um i created uh openai uh which is uh an ai uh it's a non-profit actually it's so there's no i think the governor's structure here is important um so you want to make sure that there was not some fiduciary duty to uh generate um you know profit off

of the ai technology that's developed um so uh so we created this uh 51c3 um but but i think it's quite different from i mean a lot of sort of five one c3s are you know they've they don't have a high sense of urgency um like they're not like um you know they're not really sort of developing technology at a fast pace but openai is so openi has a very high sense of urgency and the talent i think that the people that have joined are are really really amazing and and the intent with openai is to democratize ai power um there's a quote that i love from lord acton he was the guy that came up with power corrupts and absolute power crafts absolutely um which is that uh freedom consists of the distribution of power and despotism in its concentration and so i think

it's important if we have this incredible power of ai that it not be concentrated in the hands of a few and potentially lead to a world that we don't want and what world is that what is what do you see for see that when you sit it's difficult i mean it's called the singularity because it's it's difficult to predict um what exactly what future that might be except i don't know a lot of people who love the idea of living under a despot um you know i don't think people generally choose to live in a democracy over a dictatorship and the despot would be the computer or the people controlling the and do you worry specifically about any of these companies i mentioned who've all seemed to now kind of be pivoting toward this is the battleground in the next 10

years i wouldn't name a name but there is only one there's only one you're worried about and they're not preoccupied with making a car that will compete with you i assume there's only one competing for you know mutual destruction it's like there's no it's not about competing it's really just about trying to increase the probability that the future will be good that's all so the the goal of open ai is really just to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the positive futures like if you can think of like the future as a set of of probability streams that branch out and then converge collapse down to a particular event and then branch out again and uh there's a certain set of probabilities associated with the future being positive and different

type flavors of that and uh at open ai we want to try to do do whatever we can to guide to increase the probability of the good futures happening i think that's that's really what we're trying to do you worry that by making this open some bad actors may use some of what has been developed to do bad stuff uh with the power yeah i mean that is certainly the the i mean a good remodel to that however i think if ai power is widely distributed then and there's not say one entity that has some super ai that is a million times smarter than anything else you know if instead the ai power is broadly distributed and to the degree that we can link ai power to each individual's will it's like you know you would have your ai agent you knew it like everyone would have

their sort of ai agent and then if somebody did try to do something really terrible well then the collective will of others could overcome that bad actor um which you can't do if if there's one ai that's you know a million times better than ever and it's proprietary and it's yeah it's either has its own world or more likely at least in the beginning is controlled by you know some small set of people so um i think that's that's really the the risk i mean um you know there's always these arguments like what's what's the best form of government um i'm a big fan of i think it's churchill like you know democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others right um so speaking of that yeah this election you are no no no yes yes yes how does that

strike you what's happening now you're you you've come to this country you're naturalized you know i think uh i'm glad that the frame is the constitution saw fit to ensure that the president uh was someone who um was captain of a lodge ship with a small writer okay and there's a limit to how much harm any given president are you sure about that oh yeah yeah yeah so you're not worried about are you backing in either of the candidates at this point try to stay out of this situation because i don't think that's the finest moment in our democracy well given that it's not the finest moment in our democracy do you think the best thing is to stay out or we'll see i'm not sure what what i can do to head off the worst i'm sure how much influence i could have as

as one person on the outcome so i mean if i think i could make a difference i would probably do something um but um like i said i think i'm just glad that the pres you know being the us president is like being captain of a large ship with a small rudder and so there's just a limit to how much good or bad a president can can actually do i mean obviously if a president could make the economy great that and there was like a button he could press they'd be pressing that button at the speed of light so you know that they just but they could they can't like can't they can't just magically make the economy good um no president wants the economy bad ever um but they you know like there's just a limit to how much they can do um and um yeah i guess there is the

nuclear thing which is yeah the new thing i guess there is the nuclear thing yeah but i i don't know i think i think i think i don't think we would like just arbitrarily launch nuclear missiles yeah one would have president can do that uh i don't think so i mean i think that he's no he's the commander-in-chief i still don't think that means you can just launch nuclear missiles whenever you want right yeah um i think congress would be like quite upset about that and they might not be consulted yeah but i think i think like the military would be like yeah we really think congress should be consulted on before we launch uh yeah that that might happen preemptively are you willing you're basing your faith in that though i'm quite confident that the military

would not just you know randomly agree to launching nuclear missiles at somebody well that's calming this is right so um uh we're going to put up just very quickly we'll and on hyperloop you've been involved with it your level involvement is what at this point just yeah i know it's a bit confusing because um i um you talked about it when you were here last time yeah i actually came up with the idea um i came up with an initial idea which was turned out to be wrong it wouldn't work several years ago and and then um but i sort of shot my mouth off and and said i look like i have an idea that would work and turned out that didn't work but with a lot of iteration i was able to come up with something that where the physics hangs together and then published

the paper and just said like look anyone who wants to do this is great go you know be my guest because i'm i sort of have a plate full running tesla and spacex yeah yeah and so i think it'd be great i mean it'd be great to have any interesting new transport solutions um anything that gets people to their destination um in a way that's safer costs less it's more convenient um that'd be great i mean and so i think probably the most valuable thing that the hyperloop paper that i published has done is to spur thinking in terms of new transportation system so it's not just oh let's you know have a fast train um okay that's not even as fast as what japan did in the 80s like okay i don't see what the point of that is you know like we should really be trying

to think of some something that's um i think particularly in california like we should be like saying hey what is the best let's invent something new that's way better than anything else do you want to shoot your mouth off about that um well um you know i so so i i'm not an investor in any of the companies uh that that are working on and i've tried to be neutral because i'm like i'm trying not to favor one company over another but just to encourage anyone that is interested to say that you know try to give them moral support you know um and i hope they succeed um the only thing that um i am doing a half blue front is like we're holding a student competition and the student competition is really just aimed towards encouraging uh students to think about

exciting new transport methods and it's totally cool if they want to like do some architecture that's different from what i propose in hyperloop and in fact the the winning team at the student competition that we held earlier this year used a different um suspension mechanism than what i proposed which is i you know i propose using essentially taking taking the uh air that eventually that builds up on the nose from the compressor and and flowing that through air skis so that you simultaneously remove the drag from the nose and provide a a means of suspending the the pod um and that's also something that that works well um even at uh super supersonic velocities you can go it's been demonstrated up to mach 1.

1 in terms of using air bearings as but they use something different i like uh yeah basically electromagnetic suspension um and like the the reason i didn't suggest um sort of any kind of magnetic system suspension is that it's very important that the cost of the of the tube be minimized so if you really want because the the part is cheap the tube is expensive so if you if you want to go say 400 miles and you've and two in two directions you've got 800 miles of tube the the critical uh economic optimization parameter is the cost of the tube so you want that tube to be as low cost as possible and so if you if you do anything that that requires action on the tube side it's going to make that tube much more expensive so if you use air bearings it doesn't

change like that's real cheap and yeah so you think this is going to happen yeah i think something like that i think something will happen in the future um you know it's i think i think if if the companies that are that are trying that are trying to make it happen now if if for whatever reason that that doesn't work out um then you know i think i i'll you know i'll i might i might do something myself in the future i don't want to do something i don't know if i don't want to sort of front run them you know it's like say here's this free idea and then meanwhile i go and do it myself you know that wouldn't be nice so um so but if they if a bunch of people if companies don't try and it doesn't work out then i think i think um i think i'll try to just at least

do a demonstration system you know okay last question do you think tech has gotten more serious do you how do you look at the tech landscape as someone who's you know well-known you probably qualify as a visionary um the concept what do you imagine we are right now in the tech space and then we'll get to questions from the audience i think there's a lot of innovation happening in in many different areas um the advancements in ai i think are quite quite astonishing the advancements in genetics are amazing so i think that there is a lot of innovation going on i think there's probably a few too many talented entrepreneurs in kind of the internet space and and i think their talent actually would be better served in some other industries um but i do think

i mean i don't think we're like facing some sort of low innovation period or anything like that i think there's a lot of innovation going on they need to move to other i just think that like if you had some ideal distribution would probably be fewer like there's just a lot of talent focused on the internet and probably some of that talent would be better to have some of that talent in other industries that's about all but there's tremendous amount of innovation that that's happening um it's something that i think is is going to be quite important um and and it's there's not i don't know of a company that's working on it seriously is um is a neural lace um so you know going back to the ai situation um this is quite an important uh quite important debate

like that if you assume any rate of advancement in ai um we will be left behind by a lot um and so then we could be in you know benign but even the benign situation if you have some you know if you have ultra intelligent ai um we would be you know so so far below them in intelligence that it would be would be like you know a pet that's what it was like a pet a cat a cat like a house yeah we like the house cat right um and um yeah so that's it's not the end of the world you know it's just not sort of you've seen the movie it could be it could be it could be um the you know so that but that honestly that would be the benign scenario um and so house cat is okay i mean i don't love the idea of being a house guy okay but what's the solution yeah so i think

the um i think i think it i think it's to essentially i think one of the solutions the solution that seems maybe the best one is to have an ai layer um if you think of like you've got your limbic system your cortex and then a digital layer a sort of a third layer above the cortex that could work work well and symbiotically with with you i mean just as your cortex works somewhat spiritically with the olympic system your did sort of a third digital layer could work symbolically with the rest this is something that's surgically inserted or bred into the species or what the fundamental limitation is input output so we already have uh we're already a cyborg um it's just that i mean you have a digital version of yourself or a partial version of yourself online

in the form of your emails and your social media and all the things that you do and and you have basically superpowers in that with your computer and your phone and and the applications that are there you have more power than the president united states had 20 years ago that you can answer any question you can video conference with anyone anywhere you can send a message to millions of people instantly you know you just do incredible things and um but the constraint is is input output so we're i o bound um particularly output bound i mean like the your output level is so low it's like particularly on a phone like your two thumbs are sort of tapping away um this is ridiculously slow our input is much better because we have a high bandwidth visual interface

into the brain like our eyes taking a lot of a lot of data so there's many orders magnitude difference between input and output so mostly effectively merging in a symbiotic way with uh digital intelligence revolves around eliminating the i o constraint so it's be some sort of direct cortical interface and you called it a neural neural lace yeah um it's totally not google glass right no i i'm talking about something would you wear it or no i mean it would be uh i mean i mean there are a few ways to approach this but some sort of interface directly with your cortical neurons particularly but doesn't that apply surgical insertion not necessarily you could go through the veins and arteries because that provides a complete roadway to all of your neurons your

neurons are very heavy users of energy so they need high blood flow so you automatically with your veins and arteries have a road network to your neurons still some kind of surgery right um yes but you could insert something you know basically you know into the jugular and and have it gets macabre but it sounds really easy and it doesn't involve it it doesn't it doesn't involve you know like chopping your just your skull up or anything like that yeah and plus you're not a house cat anymore right a house cat so um i mean essentially if if we can figure out how to establish a high bandwidth neural interface with ourselves with with your digital self effectively um then uh then you're no longer a house cat you know all right on that note no on that yeah

well i do just one closing thing i mean i think it's probably are you in are you into that part of the best outcome i think are you interested in exploring this possibility that you have just laid somebody's got to do it i'm not saying that i will but i'm somebody's got to do it i mean i i i mean somebody should do it and i mean if somebody doesn't do it then i then i think i should probably do it but uh and and the goal of this is to prevent there being an external uh ai particularly one controlled by a small group of people that could yeah be so much more powerful and intelligent than we are that the house will be god-like in situations yeah well this has been really cheerful thank you yeah but if but if we can establish i was worried about asteroids

at the beginning of this i mean asteroids are a low probability existential threat um on the time scale that's relevant to us okay okay this is different this requires urgency so what do you do for fun yes this is much elon what do you do for fun fun what do you do anything i play video games with my kids all right that sounds good let's get some questions come on elon the house cat i watch movies yeah i kind of think normal things okay why don't we start over here yeah hi i think this last question by uh carl just just did that i want to know how do you live through the stress that kind of conversations we just heard that you went through and kind of ambitions that you carry and then how do you adjust to the everyday work life balance etc things that

in your life it's a little bit of your personal side actually so you're very busy how does that work yeah i mean i am sort of in kind of work triage mode um a lot of the time so i know it seems to be uh as long as there's not like a crisis simultaneously at spacex and tesla it's okay um but you know companies are i mean the situation in any given company particularly one you know if it's sort of growing fast and sort of quasi startup it's it's somewhat sinusoidal so that i mean it's okay if if you don't if the if the waves don't crest together you know um when that does happen it then that's a huge strain right now things are like you know motoring along okay um and i have like the contacts loaded for both companies and i can look sort of see a path to

a good outcome so i feel pretty good right now but they've been super stressful times in the past and and then you know and then i always try to reserve time for my kids because i love hanging out with them like i mean kids are really great i mean like the um of the time they're they're they make you happier their kids are awesome you know yeah um then there's that one percent one percent you know like yeah one percent but but like it's it's like of anything in my life i would say kids by far make me the happiest i mean i don't know you know i agree yeah that's great i agree yeah um so hang out with them like so like no like things like a lot of times kids are kind of in their own world so you don't need to like they don't want to like talk to their dad

for hours on end generally i've noticed that yeah um so like um so i can be in the same room with them they can talk to me from time time but like you know i can get you know some emails done just get some work done and then whenever they want to talk to me they can um and then we try to do things like um you know travel places and uh like i said we play video games together or actually on monday we went to the new harry potter land um at universal it was quite fun yeah so i think that somebody from universal just clapped yeah whoever was in charge of harry potter land did a great job it's really good yeah that's good i highly recommend it yeah the butter beer is amazing yeah i was just saying the butter beer is amazing yeah okay over here hi my name

is evan burns and the founder of odyssey and i hope into the future to be in something in the space industry and my curiosity is you've talked about spacex getting into many different businesses for example global wi-fi through launching many satellites do you hope spacex becomes a platform for others to launch businesses or you see spacex being a business that launches many business lines um well i mean the general strategy of spacex is to like we clearly need a lot of money in order to develop the transport system to establish a city on mars so you know we're like kind of gathering revenue like earth-based revenue that's we're trying to maximize there's some other earth revenue well right now is only earth so we've got to maximize earth revenue as it

relates to space you know as it relates to rockets and spacecraft so um but i think like what assuming spacex is able to transport large numbers of people and and goods to mars it will be an enormous enabler for entrepreneurial activity on mars um because there's gonna be so much to do um you know everything from creating like the first iron ore refinery to the first pizza joint to um you know it was something that doesn't even exist on earth um it was kind of like when the union pacific uh crossed crushed you know and like everyone thought you know it's like what a stupid idea you know like there's nobody living in california well okay now there's quite a lot of people living in california so so just uh having it you need the transport link and so what

spacex is trying to do is establish transport link um and then try to create a fertile environment for entrepreneurs on mars uh to flourish um and and i think that will be an amazing um expansion of entrepreneurial how long would it take to deliver a pizza from mars well it's going to be a little cold i think but i mean we we could certainly see a way to get to mars in under three months and i think ultimately you'll be able to get to mars in under a month it does get exponentially difficult as you reduce the time um but um but you know three months is a way to think of it um and i think that's probably you know that's that's really where spacex will i think create a a great environment for entrepreneurial potential thanks neelac i hope dominos does not

get to mars please don't let it have a special special mars uh so you're obviously very ambitious um that's led to some really ambitious deadlines that have been missed so falcon heavy was originally 2012.

um the model x was a little bit delayed the model 3 the model x was delayed the model 3 seems to be stretching but the model 3 in particular is a consumer product you're taking money from people against a really aggressive production schedule and a huge amount of orders what are you going to do to hit your deadlines on that because it's real consumers this time in a big class of people sure the i think the biggest thing is just designing the car for um for for manufacturing so in the case of model s like models was the first time we'd really built a car uh a whole car like with the roadster lotus did the body and chassis we did the powertrain then we did the sort of final installation of the powertrain to the chassis but the model s was the first time

we made a car so we were just trying to make a great car and but we had no idea like what it meant to design something to be manufacturable so the model s is super hard to make and then the model x is built off of the model s platform except it's got a bunch of other whiz-bang technologies that make it even harder to build so um and uh you know so like i mean definitely we want to do the opposite of what we do with the with the x um which is make something that is is going to be a lot simpler um but still a car that people will love and where every design decision is factoring in the manufacturability uh in fact and making sure that when we designed something um that you can manufacture at volume at an affordable price uh in the schedule that would that

were on the schedule that we're targeting um one of the things that makes a car very difficult particularly if it's a new car uh is is that it's an integrated product with several thousand unique components so we are somewhat at the mercy of whatever the slowest component is whatever basically i mean if you say go to tier 2 and 3 suppliers they end up being several thousand suppliers so so things move as fast as the least lucky and least competent supplier um you know but but just and you can think of like like any natural disaster you care to name all of those things have happened to our suppliers their factory has burnt down there's been an earthquake there's been a you know tsunami there's been uh massive hail uh there's been a tornado uh the ship

sank there was a shootout at the mexican border um no kidding um that delayed trunk carpet at one point well like and we couldn't get and like then like the border patrol wouldn't give us the truck because it had like bullet holes in it um we just wanted our trunk carpet um like it's pretty safe there's like no cocaine or anything so good um but you know that shut down the production line as an example for several days um so so there's that's the biggest issue is like the supply chain stuff is really tricky um we're trying to anticipate as much that as possible increase our optionality so that there's more internal capability at tesla not that we want to do things internally but if if a supplier is unable or unwilling to uh deliver the part we can quickly

make that internally so i think the whole company is geared geared for that um and um i mean right now it looks like you know we should be able to do that we expect to i mean almost all of the model 3 design is done um and we're aiming for pencils down basically [Music] in about six weeks complete pencils down and um and we're tabling all you know like if they're ideas for future cool things we'll we'll have it in version two version three in future years type of thing so um overall i feel pretty good about it um and our supply particularly our major supplier partners have been um very supportive and are are on board um but um you know uh i mean one thing i i should say like the like when i when i sort of cite a schedule it is actually the schedule i

think is true it's it's not some fake schedule that i don't think is true um so i mean uh you know it's never you know i it's um i may be delusional that is entirely you know possible maybe it's happened from time to time but it's it's it's never um you know some knowingly fake deadline ever so is there an event in six weeks we're going to announce autonomous driving is included in the pencil down plan for the model 3.

we're not expecting any event in six weeks uh josh hi um i have a this is kind of a weird question i feel like you'd would be the guy with the right answer for it there's a um sort of a philosophic concept that a sufficiently advanced civilization will be able to create uh sort of a simulation yeah maybe you've answered this before a simulation i've had so many simulation discussions it's crazy okay so because in fact it got to the point where basically every conversation was was the ai ai slash simulation conversation um and my brother and i finally agreed that um we would ban such conversations if we were ever in a hot tub that was like here because that really kills them so so so the idea is right any sufficiently advanced civilization would create

could create a simulation that's like our existence and so the theory follows that maybe we're in the simulation have you thought about this and a lot are we are we even in hot tubs so much so it had to be banned from a hot tub [Laughter] okay it's not the sexiest conversation are we in are we in um the the i mean i think here's remember like the the strongest argument for the for us being in a simulation probably being assimilation i think is the following um that that 40 40 40 years ago we had pong like two rectangles and a dot that was what games were now 40 years later we have photorealistic 3d simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously and it's getting better every year and soon we'll have you know virtual reality of augmented reality

if you assume any rate of improvement at all then the games will become indistinguishable from reality just instinctual um even if that rate of advancement drops by a thousand from what it is right now um then you just say okay well let's mention it's a ten thousand years in the future which is nothing in the evolutionary scale so um so so given that we're clearly on a trajectory to have games that are indistinguishable from reality and those games could be played on any set-top box or on a pc or whatever and there would probably be you know billions of such uh you know computers or set-top boxes it would seem to follow that the odds that we're in based reality is one in billions so tell me what's wrong with that argument is the answer yes the argument

is probably like is there is there a flow in that argument i mean but someone i'm not sure what the error no no the argument makes sense so the assumption then is that somebody beat us to it and this is a game no no there's a one in billions chance that this is based reality oh okay what do you think well i think it's one in billions okay i mean this that seems to be like clearly what the you know what what what it suggests right and actually i mean arguably we should hope that that's true because otherwise if if civilization stops advancing then that may be due to some calamitous event that erases civilization so maybe we should be hopeful that this is a simulation because otherwise so they could reboot it well otherwise either we're going to create

simulations that are industrial indistinguishable from reality or civilization will cease to exist those are the two options yeah i like those odds okay okay we're going to it's unlikely to go into some like you know multi-millionaire stasis so it's either going to increase or decrease hi i'm g2 patel from box uh two-part question for you one is um if you think about fully autonomous vehicles um which have passed through regulatory approvals have passed through in-city driving and traffic conditions how far do you think from a time frame perspective we are for that that becoming reality and number two would be the second part of that question is how far before how long before you think it's either illegal or extremely prohibitively expensive for humans

to drive on the road well i i mean i think i mean i really would consider autonomous driving to be basically a solved problem um even in cities like beijing and yeah yeah actually it is the there's really only one um area where it's like a little dodgy and that's basically if you're at roughly the 30 30 to 40 miles an hour in in urban environments which is that's difficult to achieve in beijing um it's like heavy traffic in in in dense traffic situations autonomy is really easy um because you can just maintain a set distance from various cars it's actually quite quite easy um you're very unlikely to drop to run anyone over because you're not moving fast enough and you can break in time on highways particularly highways that are um that have barriers so

that you you don't have pedestrians that's also relatively easy and like a model s and model x at this point uh can drive autonomously with greater safety than a person right now my point is when does it get to be where you don't need to be sitting behind a vehicle and it actually the way that society starts expecting this is i can have my 75 year old mother who doesn't speak any english or doesn't drive be able to be transported from point a to point b by just sitting in a car by ourself and being taken i know it's technically possible but how far do you think the regulatory approvals are for that happening i think we're basically um less than two years away from complete autonomy wow well complete safer than a human um however regulators will take um

i think at least another year at least another year and to pick it's going to depend on which what part of the world you're in because they'll want to see billions of miles of data to show that it is statistically true that there is a substantial improvement in safety if something's autonomous versus not autonomous i don't think that regulators will accept something that's close to that's that's that's sort of approximately as good as a person i think they'll have to be at least twice as good as a person maybe five or ten times um you know better in terms of uh safety um and and that will have to be have to be a statistically relevant data set so like billions of miles over widely differing roads and situations so yeah you know that's i think it's like

probably three years before it's right through from a regulatory standpoint but less than two before it is uh technically possible and do you think there's a day when it's illegal to drive for humans or um you know well i mean we live in a democracy so presumably that would be a function of the population deciding um i mean i i mean i'm not in favor of banning people from driving cars um like i'm in favor of freedom um and and not restricting what people do um yeah but maybe the requirements for a license will get more stringent i think that seems like maybe a good move you know so you have to demonstrate a higher level of skill to drive in order to be allowed to manually drive okay very last question this is the last make it a good one sorry because

elon has to go gotta make it a great question uh thinking about life on mars again how do you how do you think about cultural unification systems of government uh rules of law establishing those uh very early on well i think i've just declared king of moss a moment ago i like that yeah take it yeah thank you thank you thank you um so the the uh i think most likely the form of government on mars would be a direct direct democracy um not representative so would be people voting directly on on issues um and i think that's probably better because like the potential for corruption is substantially diminished in a direct versus a representative democracy so i think that's probably what will occur um the i i think there's some i think so i would recommend like

some adjustment for the inertia of laws is would be wise in that it should probably be easier to remove a law than create one um i think you know that this is i would just be like let's just i mean i think i think that's probably probably good because just laws have infinite life unless they're taken away um so i think my recommendation would be like like something like let's say 60 of people need to uh vote in a law but at any point greater than 40 percent of people can remove it um and any law should come with a sunset with a built-in sunset provision if it's not good enough to be voted back in maybe it shouldn't be there so that's that's the framework for the government on mars i mean that'll be my those would be my recommendations direct democracy

where where it's slightly harder to put laws in place than to take them away and where laws don't just automatically live forever you'll be a good king thank you elon musk thank you