女士们、先生们，欢迎来到计算机历史博物馆。我是首席执行官约翰·霍勒。今晚，我很荣幸代表我们的理事、员工、会员、了不起的志愿者，以及所有参与把博物馆建设成一个卓越场所的人欢迎各位。呃，谢谢，谢谢各位今晚来到这里，参加我们2013年“革命者”演讲系列的启动活动。“革命者”演讲系列获得了英特尔的大力资助。我们非常高兴英特尔如今已连续第4年提供支持，这实在是、实在是太棒了，因为它让我们为举办这些“革命者”活动所做的一切成为可能。我们还、还获得了威廉·K·博斯基金会的额外资助。我想特别感谢Tesla安排在今晚将

一辆Model S带到这里。希望各位已经有机会看到楼下的Model S。多年来，我们一直期待能举办一场活动，让《Motor Trend》的年度汽车来到博物馆，而今晚它就在这里，所以感谢Tesla。我们向SpaceX要了一枚火箭，事实证明这有点更具挑战性，不过也许有一天可以做到。现在进入今晚的节目。这里有一道思考题：如果你编制一份20世纪最具影响力的75人名单，你的名单上会有谁？或者，如果你编制一份对20世纪世界影响最大的100人名单，那份名单上会有谁？现在想一想，你也许会开始为迄今为止的21世纪编制同样的名单。如果这一切显得有点太

难，我可以提供一些帮助。迄今为止，在已经编制出的每一份20世纪名单中，无论名单似乎由谁拟定，埃隆·马斯克都榜上有名。上个世纪很少有科学家、企业家或实业家能够宣称自己拥有像埃隆·马斯克如今正在塑造的这般雄心勃勃的事业。1999年，作为PayPal的联合创始人和董事长，他在很大程度上改变了全球的商业和支付系统，这对任何人来说或许都足以穷尽一生，但埃隆·马斯克此后继续追求他的热情，在全球范围内解决商业、环境和科学问题问题。他最广为人知的或许是在Tesla的工作，他在那里担任首席执行官兼产品设计负责人。开创性的Tesla

Roadster，以及如今的Model S，几乎改变了汽车界对于新一代电动汽车的造型、性能和未来可能如何的所有设想。与此同时，他还担任SolarCity的董事长和主要股东；该公司是全美领先的太阳能系统供应商。但他最雄心勃勃、最引人入胜的工作或许正在SpaceX展开，他在那里担任首席执行官兼首席设计师。SpaceX正在消除太空飞行与私营企业之间的界限。它与NASA签订了一份价值数十亿美元、为期多年的协议，负责承担往返国际空间站的货运飞行，而在2015年——这是该公司公开宣示的目标——它将开始载人航天飞……埃隆·马斯克的

革命性思维的源泉是什么？他是如何凭借自己吸引来的投资者和组建的团队，做到他所做的这一切的？今晚将与埃隆一起探讨这些问题以及更多话题的是艾莉森·范·迪根，她是硅谷一位非常知名且值得关注的记者，也是KQED和《赫芬顿邮报》的撰稿人，并通过她的《Fresh Dialogues》系列成为这个领域最优秀的采访者之一。我们很高兴今晚能请到艾莉森，这是她第一次登台，她一定会表现得非常出色，埃隆也一样。请和我一起欢迎埃隆·马斯克和艾莉森·范——[掌声]迪根。那么我想先从这里开始，呃，你在南非长大，对吧？我听说过一个很精彩的故事，说你6岁的时候，就已经开始打破规则了。所以当时你

6岁，你的表亲邀请你参加一个生日派对，但这件事只有——有2个问题：第一，你被禁足了；第二，派对在图恩的另一边。对。那么你能不能解释一下，告诉——告诉观众你是怎么到那里的？呃，好吧，我是说，那是我6岁时的事，所以现在记忆有点模糊了。嗯，但是，嗯，据我回忆，呃，对，我，我，我因为某个原因被禁足了，我不——我不知道为什么，但我想我当时觉得那不公平。嗯，而且——而且，嗯，而且我真的很想去参加这个派对，我表亲的派对，呃，他当时5岁，你知道，所以这就像是个儿童派对。但是，嗯，所以，呃，我，我，我，嗯，我一开始打算骑自行车去。嗯，但是后来——而且我把这件事告诉了我妈妈，嗯，这是个错误。嗯，而且——而且——而且她，她给我讲了个关于

骑自行车需要驾照、警察会拦住我的故事，所以我不是100%确定她说的那件事是不是真的，但我想为了以防万一，我最好还是走路。嗯，所以，对，就是，我，我，我算是觉得自己知道路怎么走，而且，呃，但那是在城镇的另一头，所以我不知道，有10或12英里远，真的、真的相当远。嗯，实际上比我意识到的还要远。而且，呃，所以我就开始朝——朝我表亲家走，我想大概花了我4小时。而且，嗯，就在我妈妈带着我哥哥和妹妹离开那个派对时，她看见我正沿着路走。嗯，然后吓坏了。嗯，然后我——我看到——看到她看见我了，所以我——我接着就冲向我表亲家，当时只——只差大约2个街区，然后我爬上了一棵树，拒绝下来。哦，所以这——

这是埃隆·马斯克众多打破规则的冒险中的第一次，所以到，到你12岁的时候，你已经是一名企业家并且开始盈利了。据我了解，你，你，你通过制作一款电子游戏赚到了相当于500美元的兰特，呃，你能给我们讲讲那件事以及灵感是什么吗？呃，可以，当然。嗯，所以我，呃，当，当我大约10岁时，我走进了南非的一家电脑商店，然后，嗯，看到了一台真正的电脑。嗯，我之前有过，嗯，一些，一些早期的、有点像是雅达利，呃，系统前身的东西，后来我得到了雅达利系统，我相信这里很多人都玩过。嗯，然后，呃，然后，然后但之后我发现，你实际上可以拥有一台电脑，在上面制作自己的游戏，那是一台 Commodore Vic 20。嗯，所以那是我买的第一台电脑，然后，嗯，然后

然后我弄到了一些，呃，关于如何自学编程的书，嗯，而这就像是我见过的最酷的东西，所以我当时就是觉得，这简直太棒了，嗯，然后，呃，就开始编写游戏，呃，然后卖游戏，以便真的能买更多游戏，所以这有点像一个循环，就这样，还有更多游戏、更好的电脑以及诸如此类的东西，所以，对，所以钱对你来说并不是最终目标，它更多是实现目标的一种手段。呃，是的，嗯，基本上我会把钱花在，嗯，是的，更好、更好的电脑，以及《龙与地下城》的模组和诸如此类的东西上。我们基本上就是书呆子大师3000。呃，是的，所以我了解到，当时你非常痴迷漫画。我很好奇，嗯，你喜欢《钢铁侠》吗，漫画里的钢铁侠？我的确有点喜欢钢铁

侠。是的，你喜欢。你有没有，你有没有想象过自己会成为电影版本的灵感来源？我没有，没有。那会，那是，那是相当，那差不多，我会说，是0%。我本来会说可能性是0%。你小时候是什么样的孩子？我是说，你能不能回想一下，看看那时的自己？你是不是有点像月亮孩子、爱读书的孩子？呃，我当然没有那么孤僻，嗯，至少不是自愿的。嗯，所以，嗯，但是，但是我，我当然确实相当，嗯，我非常非常爱读书。我一直都在读书。所以我要么在读书，呃，要么在电脑上做东西、看漫画、玩《龙与地下城》，诸如此类的事。而且，嗯，我听说道格拉斯·亚当斯那本精彩的《银河系漫游指南》，那是一本，那对你来说是一本关键的书，什么——

那本书究竟有什么地方激发了你的想象力？嗯，是的，所以，呃，我想我在大约12或13岁时，经历了康潘存在危机，我当时在读各种书，嗯，试图弄明白生命的意义，还有，像是，这一切究竟意味着什么，因为，呃，它开始显得相当没有意义，然后，嗯，呃，我的——我们家里碰巧有一些N和叔本华的书，你不应该在14岁时读那些书，很糟糕，真的非常消极。嗯，所以，所以，呃，但，但是后来我，后来我读了《希特·伊斯·古银河》，我觉得它相当积极，而且，嗯，也算是突出了一个重要观点，那就是很多时候，问题比答案更难，如果你能恰当地表述问题，那么答案就是容易的部分。

嗯，所以，呃，在我们能够，嗯，更好地，呃，理解宇宙的程度上，我们就能更清楚该问什么问题，而，嗯，那么无论哪个问题最接近于“生命的意义是什么”，你知道，那，那，那就是我们最终能够更接近理解的问题。嗯，所以我想，好吧，在我们能够扩大意识以及，以及知识，嗯，人类知识的范围和规模的程度上，那会是一件好事。哇，所以你是在多大年纪时思考这些深奥问题的？10岁？14岁？是的，算是在青春期吧，我想是13岁，13岁到15岁，大概是最痛苦的几年，对吧？所以，到你17岁时，你已经，你已经准备好了，你实际上离开了，对吧？我猜在你……的时候，你更早就制订了这个计划。

大约14、15岁时，我确实更早就制订了计划。实际上我，我试着孵化过好几个计划，呃，但它们都没有孵化，对吧？嗯，但到17岁时，你坐上了一架离开南非的飞机，你，你已经受够南非了，你准备去寻找新的天地。那么，为什么你的目的地是美国？为什么不是欧洲或世界其他地方？嗯，只要我读到很酷的技术，它往往都在美国，你知道，或者更广义地说是在北美，包括加拿大。所以，嗯，呃，因此我有点想去技术最前沿的地方。嗯，当然，在美国境内，呃，硅谷是，是，是一切的核心所在。所以，嗯，尽管当时我不知道硅谷在哪里，它听起来像一个神话般的……

地方。真的很棒。嗯，所以，是的，所以我，我，我想来美国。我试着说服我的，嗯，我的母亲或父亲，他们已经离婚了，如果他们中的任何一个搬到美国，那么我就能，那么我就能到那里。有一次我说服了我父亲，但遗憾的是，后来他反悔了。嗯，所以你已经说服了他，然后他改变了主意。他确实说了可以，然后，然后他改变了主意。为什么？我不知道，我想，嗯，他算是，他已经相当安定了，他是一名工程师，他算是在南非站稳了脚跟，不想到了另一个国家还得再经历一遍，对吧？所以你17岁时独自一人坐上了那架飞机。呃，是的，所以，嗯，我，我其实得到了，嗯，我的，我的母亲出生在加拿大，实际上她的，她的父亲是，呃，美国人，U

但遗憾的是，她没有取得美国公民身份，所以这条联系就断了，我也无法取得美国公民身份，但她出生在加拿大，所以我可以取得——呃，我其实替她填好了表格，给她办了一本加拿大护照，我也办了一本，嗯，然后在我拿到加拿大护照后的3周内，我就到了加拿大，对，然后你最后去了宾夕法尼亚大学，是的，你取得了物理和商业学位，是的，所以我、我、我在加拿大待了几年，就读于皇后大学，拿到奖学金去了——呃，宾夕法尼亚大学，嗯，因为来北美上大学的一个不利之处是，我父母说他们不会——不会支付大学学费，如果它是——嗯，我父亲说他不会

支付大学学费，除非是在南非，所以，所以要么是我可以在……免费上大学，要么想办法在这里支付学费，而，呃，幸运的是，我拿到了宾大的奖学金，嗯，所以也确实，呃，确实他U商科，本科双修，呃，宾大沃顿商学院的商科和物理。正是在那里，你想出了你认为对人类最重要的3个主要领域这个想法，你能描述一下你是怎么想到它们的吗？是某一天你突然灵光一现，觉得这就是3个重要领域，我想专注于它们，还是说，那是怎么，那份灵感是怎么来到你这里的？不，我想我思考这件事有几年了，嗯，大概是在女王大学的大一和sophore年级期间，后来在宾大也是如此。

嗯，我当时试图思考什么会对未来产生最大影响，呃，你知道，我们必须解决的问题是什么，嗯，嗯，而且我，我其实和朋友们、我的室友之类的人，还有约会对象谈了很多，这或许不是最好的做法。所以，是的，嗯，实际上在大学里认识了，呃，认识了一位我短暂交往过的女性，嗯，她现在在《科学美国人》担任撰稿人，而，呃，而且，而且她讲了这样一件轶事：呃，我们去约会时，我一直，我谈的全是电动汽车，嗯，那可不是什么很能赢得好感的谈话。所以那有点像独白，是吗？是的，她说，她说我问她的第1个问题是：你有没有想过电动汽车？没有，她从来没有想过。所以你从中吸取了教训，那不是最好的，大声喊出L。

不是，不是很好。最近它更有效了。你看，就是这样。我认识这个人，太棒了。我们很快会谈到Tesla，但我想，我想，嗯，从，从宾夕法尼亚大学说起，你最后来到了硅谷，而且你把硅谷形容为达尔文主义式的。你能谈谈那是什么意思吗？其实是最积极意义上的，而且是积极的，嗯，你能详细说明那是什么意思，以及为什么必须是硅谷吗？是什么，什么吸引你来到硅谷？嗯，是这样，呃，是这样，我当时在，我当时在宾大，嗯，有一位教授，嗯，他是一家硅谷公司的董事长，那家公司当时正在研究用于电动汽车的先进电容器，或者说有可能用于电动汽车的先进电容器。呃，事实证明，它们实在太贵了，但是，嗯，但我当时觉得……

嗯，这，这真的太棒了，因为后来我问能不能找一份暑期工作，因为那是在硅谷，而且是在研究电动汽车技术。我想，嗯，这差不多已经是最好的情况了。嗯，所以我在这里找到了一份暑期工作，实际上是在拉斯戈杜斯，嗯，在Pinnacle Research，呃，研究，嗯，呃，电解式，呃，超级电容器，它们是，嗯，但它们有一个问题，就是它们使用氧化钌钽，嗯，而世界上开采的钌，我想只有几吨，嗯，所以不太能规模化，嗯，而且他们，你知道，是按毫克左右卖给你的。所以，你知道，那就是，你知道，存在一个问题，嗯，但，但是它的能量密度相当高，大致相当于Le酸电池，而这……

对电容器来说是巨大的。嗯哼。但在那之后，你最终去了斯坦福。是的，所以后来，嗯，我，我想，嗯，呃，斯坦福位于硅谷，可以说是中心，所以那就是我想来的地方，嗯，你，斯坦福或伯克利，而斯坦福算是阳光明媚、空气好，所以我喜欢阳光和空气。那很好，而且据我了解，你在斯坦福大学整整待了2天，就决定，不，是时候了，我要做我的第1家初创公司。是的，我当时想，嗯，所以这是95年的夏天，而且，呃，呃，我一直在开发一些互联网软件，所以，因为我认为有3件事是选择世界与互联网，嗯，可持续能源，以及，呃，太空探索，让生命成为多行星物种。所以，呃，这个，但是，但是在互联网这件事上，我就是想不出该怎样……

赚到足够的钱来养活自己，你知道，因为，呃，如果我没能赚，赚，赚到钱，那我就会，比如说，食物耗尽然后死掉，所以那，那可不好。呃，所以是基本需求，对吧？是的，确实如此。嗯，所以，呃，你知道，如果我是学生，那我就可以当助教，做，做各种事情，并且，而且，而且研究，嗯，电动汽车技，技术。那是我的默认计划。但，但是后来我也想到，如果我，如果我在斯坦福读博士，那么，嗯，我可能，我会花上几年时间，看着互联网经历这个增长极其迅速的阶段，而那会非常，非常难以承受，就像，就像我真的很想亲自做点什么。所以你看到浪潮正在壮大。看起来事情真的就要……

腾飞了，嗯，尽管当时在95年，没有任何人在互联网上赚到钱，实际上真的没有人在互联网上赚到任何钱。事实上，即使在沙丘路，人们也会问：互联网是什么？令人惊讶的是，嗯，当我们尝试为一家公司融资时，我想那是在9年的11月或类似的时候，大约10月、11月，嗯，我们见过的长椅资本家中，有超过一半不知道互联网是什么，也没有使用过它。太不可思议了。是的，确实如此，我就像，就像，他们确实会问：那不是政府和大学使用的东西吗？比如，呃，目前是，但你知道，是的。呃，但后来，后来，呃，Netgate在95年末上市了，我想是这样，然后在那之后，尽管许多风险资本家仍然不……

理解它，而且仍然没有使用过它，但他们，他们，有人在上面做成了，所以现在它进入视野了。是的，所以当我们第2次尝试去融资时，嗯，所有人都感兴趣。对，所以这家公司就是Zip 2。没错。而且名字糟透了。是的。这个，这个，这个名字的缘由是什么？嗯，我们当时就是愚蠢得难以置信，我想那就是，那就是这个名字的主要原因。嗯，而且，呃，因为我们找了某家广告代理公司，因为我们想，嗯，我们对起名一无所知，所以我们会找一些添加项来建议一堆选项，然后Zip two听起来似乎有点快。我不知道到底，为什么到底会选那个愚蠢的名字。嗯，而且它还有一个数字，就像，你为什么会选它，因为它可以是zip……

to，也可以是Zip T wo，也可以是zip t oo，所以，比如说，人们真的会用每一种变体来拼写这个名字。嗯，如果你有一个网址，却没有其他那些网址，这就很糟糕。嗯，所以，所以，嗯，所以is up to最初，嗯，基本上是，呃，就像我说的，我们试图弄清楚怎么，怎么赚到足够的钱，让公司能够生存，而，所以，所以，因为当时实际上没有赚到任何广告收入，呃，我们认为我们可以，嗯，帮助现有公司上线，把它们的东西搬到网上。所以我们开发了软件，帮助，嗯，许多报纸和媒体公司上线，因为其中许多公司根本不，它们也不知道互联网是什么。你们有大客户，不是吗？是的。嗯哼。嗯，而且，即使是那些知道互联网的公司，也没有软件团队。

所以它们，它们不太擅长开发功能。嗯，而且，呃，所以我们的，嗯，投资者和客户包括，呃，《纽约时报》公司、night rder H，而且，所以我们能够让它们付钱给我们，让我们为它们开发软件，帮助它们上线。所以是在线出版方面的东西，而且我们做了地图和路线、黄页和白页，以及，呃，各种其他东西。嗯，而且，呃，我们实际上开发了相当复杂的技术，但是，嗯，我，它实际上没有被媒体公司用得特别好。比如我们，我们会建议使用它的方式，但随后它并没有得到本可达到的那种有效使用。这非常令人沮丧。对，但你们确实成功地把那家公司卖给了compact。是的。对，而这让你得以继续，呃，创建x.

com。没错，是的，完全正确。所以，嗯，这个，是的，compac拥有，呃，拥有Alter Vista。所以他们，他们的想法是把alista和一堆其他科技公司合并起来，看看那是否会，是否会奏效，结果没有。嗯，但是，但是尽管如此，他们，他们，他们是相当不错的人，买下了这家公司，而，而且那给了我资金去，去创办另一家公司。而我想，我想在互联网领域再创办一家公司，因为我认为，凭借，凭借sub2，我们还没有真正发挥出原本可以达到的潜力，嗯，因为我们有非常复杂的软件。我们的软件至少可以说能与Yahoo或Excite或其他公司的软件相媲美。事实上，我的意思是，我认为它在某些方面更好。所以，呃，但它没有，因为一切都要通过这些合作伙伴过滤，它……

没有得到恰当使用。呃，所以我想我们，嗯，我，我想做一些能够对互联网作出更，更重大贡，贡献的事情。嗯，所以最初的想法是做金融服务，因为，嗯，货币是数字化的，嗯，它是低带，宽的。当时，你知道，大多数人仍在使用调制解调器，仍在使用调制解调器，而且，嗯，因为这是，呃，98年末、99年初。所以这就是x.

com 基本上是 PayPal 的前身，你们与 Confinity 合并后，它变成了 PayPal，取得了巨大成功。是的，所以结果比我们预期的更好。嗯，是的，嗯，所以，是的，呃，Confinity，所以最初 Confinity 和 EXO com 从略有不同的方向起步，然后汇聚到了同一点。嗯，对于 x，当时的想法是创建一套综合金融服务。嗯，这样你可以去一个地方办理所有与金融有关的任何事情。嗯，然后，作为一项功能，我们可以仅通过输入一个唯一标识符来转移资金或证券或任何东西，比如，你知道，电子邮件地址或电话号码或类似的东西。嗯，而且，呃，但当我们演示这个系统时，困难的部分，也就是所有金融服务的整合

呃，人们不会感兴趣，但他们会对能够使用电子邮件地址转账非常感兴趣，尽管那实际上相当容易。嗯，所以我们把我们的精力集中在了那上面。嗯，虽然原则上很容易，但真正变得非常困难的是在仍然保持易用性的同时加入，嗯，安全性，因为，你知道，就像威利·勒曼的那句话，为什么人们——为什么你要擦银行，因为钱在那里。所以为什么人们要擦PayPal，理由相同。嗯，而且，所以你可以，你可以把安全性调到非常高的级别，但那样就会让它变得非常难用。嗯，而且，所以那，那，那是我们努力解决的最棘手问题之一。嗯，然后Confinity最初是从

某种，嗯，Palm Pilot软件开始的，然后他们有一个演示应用程序，可以利用红外端口把钱从一台Palm Pilot发送到另一台。是的，人们还记得那个。是的。嗯，那东西一度很大。嗯，然后他们还有一个与之平行的网站，呃，有点像，因为你发送了红外代币之后，仍然必须，嗯，同步你的P Pilot，然后通过网站进行转账。所以，但后来人们对PM Pilot的东西没那么感兴趣，却对网站感兴趣，所以我们算是汇聚到了同一个点。嗯，而且我们彼此离得很近，所以我们决定合并公司。嗯，而且，呃，我想是在2000年1月左右，那是一段非常辛苦的时期。嗯，而且公司里的，那，那，增长

相当、相当疯狂，比如在最初大约4或5周结束时，我们有100,000名客户。增长得不可思议，难以置信。嗯，你们开始时预料到了吗？绝对没有。而且这并不全是好事，因为，呃，我们的软件里有一些漏洞。呃，而且你知道吗，即使漏洞只在一千次中出现一次，仍然有，客户，你就有100名非常愤怒的客户，比如，我的钱去哪儿了？那会是，你知道，人们会有的一个合理的、合理的担忧。然后我们，我们，我们在大学路和帕洛阿尔托设有客服，呃，有5个人。嗯，所以一旦出了问题，客服电话基本上就会爆炸。哦，天哪。嗯，而且，呃，所以我们，我们面临很多挑战

然后各个金融监管机构试图关闭我们，Visa和马斯卡德试图关闭我们，eBay试图关闭我们，呃，FTC试图关闭我们。嗯，当时有很多场斗争。哇，太不可思议了，面对所有那些逆境，你，你战胜了它们，最后拿到了1亿，对吧？是的，真是险些不成。嗯，我们绝对，我是说，在2000年和2001年差点就死掉了。嗯，那么成功的原因是什么？在那种情况下，你会把它归因于什么？你们是怎么克服的？呃，嗯，你知道，我认为我们在PayPal有一群非常有才华的人。嗯，而那些人中有很多后来实际上创办了许多其他公司。是的。嗯，你知道，YouTube、LinkedIn、Yelp，呃，Yammer。嗯，就像

实际上是相当长的一份名单。嗯，那么对你个人而言，当时你有几亿美元，难道没有动过干脆去买一座岛的念头吗？嗯，真的，是什么驱使着你，我想问的是，因为我，我知道你没有，但我想问的是，为什么你那么有动力投身下一件事？嗯，我当时，嗯——你休息过一段时间吗？我，我确实休息了一小段时间，呃，因为，嗯，PayPal之后，嗯，我从PayPal那里过得还算不错，我是公司最大的股东，所以，嗯，而且我们被要求以大约15亿美元的股票，然后股票翻了一番，所以，嗯，所以你知道，确实算是，算是过得不错。但把躺在海滩上当成我的主要事情这种想法，呃，听起来就是最糟糕的，那对我来说听起来很可怕。呃，就是无聊

因素，我会发疯的，我会，你知道，嗯，我得服用很猛的药物，我是说，就是，或者很猛的P科拉达，对吧？完全正确。我是说，就是，我会超级无敌无聊。嗯，所以那，呃，我是说，我喜欢，我喜欢高强度。嗯，我是说，我喜欢去海滩待很短一段时间，呃，但不会比，比如，你知道，几天之类的长多少。对。那么我们来谈谈SpaceX的种子。据我了解，它开始时并不是“让我们，让我们创办一家火箭飞船公司”这个想法。呃，你有一个慈善构想，当你发现NASA没有任何前往火星的计划时，你真的很惊讶，于是你想出了“让我们在火星上放一座温室”这个主意。那么你能解释一下SpaceX的整个想法是怎么形成的吗？当然，嗯

嗯，所以，所以当我还是学生，思考我认为什么会，会影响世界时，呃，并不是从“那些是我会参与的事情”这个角度出发，更像是抽象地认为，这些是我觉得会发生并影响世界的事情。嗯，但并不是说我会参与其中。结果是我确实参与了，但，呃，我，我一直认为我们会在太空领域取得大得多的进展。嗯，而它就是，它就是没有发生，实在，实在令人失望。所以，嗯，呃，是的，我当时，我当时，确实对此相当困扰。嗯。嗯，所以你知道，当我们登上月球时，嗯，我们本来应该在月球上建一个基地，我们本来应该把人送往火星，而那些事情就是，它们就是没有发生。我们倒退了。嗯，你，我们得到了

航天飞机，但航天飞机只能前往低斯轨道，而土星5号可以前往月球。现在航天飞机也没了，所以那看起来就是一件，一件非常糟糕的事。所以，呃，我想，嗯，也许问题在于，嗯，这件事没有得到足够的关注，或者没有足够的意愿去做。嗯，但这个，我，这个是，这是一个错误的假设。所以我，嗯，所以，但那，那就是温室想法的缘由，当时的想法是，如果，如果，嗯，如果能有某种小型的慈善火星任务，你知道，所以我并不，我本来就预期会损失我投在那上面的所有、所有钱。嗯，但如果我们能把一座小温室送到火星表面，里面有，有种子，放在，在脱水的营养迪尔中，并在着陆点补水，你就会得到这个

很棒的镜头，你知道，一座小温室，里面有，有小小的绿色植物，处在，在红色背景上。嗯，我认为那会让人们兴奋起来。所以你确实想象过一张照片会激励新一代人？是的，你可以说得想象一下那个值钱的镜头。嗯，所以，所以是的，我认为，我认为，你知道，红色背景上的绿色植物会是那个镜头。嗯，而且，而且人们往往会对创举和最高纪录产生兴趣并感到兴奋。所以这会是生命有史以来旅行到的最远处，火，火星上的第一个生命。嗯，据我们所知。嗯，而且，呃，而且我想，好吧，也许那会使NASA获得更大的预算，而且，而且，嗯，然后我们就可以算是重新踏上那段旅程。那就是基本想法。而且，而且我，我实际上为此花了几个月时间

而且，呃，去了俄罗斯3次。嗯，因为我能够弄清楚如何把航天器、通信以及，那，那，温室和所有那些东西的成本降到一个合理的数字，所谓合理就是几百万美元。嗯，你有没有，你实际上有没有亲手画出过一座你想象中的温室？是的，是的，实际上我希望我们把那个保存在某个地方。嗯，要是能看到，那会很了不起。是的。嗯，我是说，我确信现在回头看它显得相当滑稽，但，但那就是，那就是我们当时的想法，而且它，嗯，所以，而且我，我花了几百，

只是大致把设计做出来，并联系一些公司来，嗯，制定各个子系统的设计规格。嗯，而且，呃，然后，但之后就到了购买火箭的时候，问题是火箭的成本真的非常高。呃，当时美国成本最低的火箭是，呃，Delta 2，波音Delta 2，而那大约要5000万美元。嗯，是的，然后你仍然还需要，比如，一个从来的上面级，所以全部算下来可能要6000万美元，而那是，呃，而且我想执行2次这样的任务，因为我想，如果，如果只执行1次，而，而且它没有成功，那么可能会产生，比如，相反的效果，比如，看看这样做有多蠢，去，去尝试一个相同的，把所有这些钱都付诸东流，对吧，真是个白痴

所以，所以我想做2次，但我就是没有足够的钱去完成2次完整的任务，所以你的预算大约是1亿美元之类的吗？嗯，我原本希望能少于这个数，但呃，但不要超过，我是说不要超过这个数，嗯，不过，不过那样的话，是的，我想大致就是这个数量级，这是我最多能花的，我是说我不能，我不能花比这多太多的钱，呃，所以，嗯，所以俄罗斯人没有帮你。是的，为了尝试，呃，商谈购买2枚俄罗斯洲际弹道导弹，我去了俄罗斯3次，3次都相当有意思。是的，那他们认为你有邪恶的意图吗？不，他们只是觉得我疯了，呃，但我的意思是，那也不好，如果你要买洲际弹道导弹，嗯。不过不包括核弹头，我是说，我觉得核弹头会贵得多。所以，所以你没有谈核……

没有，我，我是说我没有，我，我略微感觉到，如果我……那件事是可以谈的，而这非常令人警觉，嗯，不过，不过是的，那些，呃，那些是非常奇怪的会面，嗯，是和俄罗斯军方之类的人，嗯，我是说，我觉得他们，他们认为我有点疯，但后来他们觉得，他们读过关于 PayPal 的报道，然后觉得，好吧，他是疯了，但他有钱，呃，他做对过一些事。是的，嗯，更重要的是，我付得起钱给他。嗯，对，是的。所以，所以那确实，我是说，是的，我对俄罗斯人的印象是，他们非常资本主义。是的，对，对，我，我以前听说过。是的，嗯，那么告诉我，从，你知道，与俄罗斯人交谈，到后来决定，好吧，我要做这件事，我要成立一家……这个转折点是怎样的？

公司，对你来说那个转折点是什么？嗯，嗯，我，我，我想我，我，我得出了，我得出了一个结论，嗯，我最初的前提是，是错误的，呃，事实上，嗯，人们有着，有着非常强烈的意愿，呃，你知道，人们并不是，并不是那么缺乏意愿，嗯，但人们不认为有办法做到，嗯，而，而如果人们认为有，有办法做到，或者至少有某种不会，你知道，压垮联邦预算的办法，嗯，那么，那么人们会支持它。嗯，回头看，我觉得这其实算是很明显的，因为，嗯，美国是人类探索精神的凝练，嗯，人们从其他地方来到这里，嗯，我是说，这个，你知道，没有国……没有，我是说，没有哪个国家比……更是一个探索者的国度

un 美国，但但人们需要相信这是可能的，而且这并不是，你知道，并不是他们必须放弃医疗保健之类的重要东西，你知道，只是那那那是那是重要的，所以所以我想，好吧，那么这不是意愿的问题，而是要表明有一条路，嗯，而且而且我开始大量阅读有关火箭的资料，试图理解为什么它们这么这么他妈的贵，嗯嗯，你知道，是不是有什么，你知道，Delta 2的6000万美元都花到哪里去了，嗯，而后来现在Delta 2我想是1 1亿美元，甚至是什么疯狂的数字，嗯，而Delta 2是，我是说，那是一枚相对较小的火箭，嗯，所以如果你看比如一枚真正的，你知道，其中一种

更大的火箭，价格在2亿到4亿美元之间，嗯，总之，所以所以我得出的结论是，火箭如此昂贵其实并没有真正充分的理由，嗯，而且而且而且成本可以低得多，即使采用一次性形式，呃，也可以更低，而且呃，而且而且如果能让它们像飞机一样重复使用，那么火箭技术的成本就会，就会大幅下降，太空旅行的成本会大幅下降，因为燃料成本可能只占火箭成本的0.

2到.

5%，对吧，嗯，你知道，这有点像飞机，我是说，飞机燃料的成本与飞机本身相比是多少，至少相差2个数量级，嗯，但实际上没有人能够让可重复使用的火箭真正运作起来，所以那那个，但我想，好吧，如果我们能做到，那么那就会，那就会真正成为太空旅行的那个关键突破，对吧，但你也说过，到目前为止我们还没有成功，我应该指出，嗯，你也说过失败是最有可能的结果，你能谈谈这种意义上的失败，以及从更广泛的创业者和创新者角度来看的失败吗，为什么失败如此重要，呃，嗯，我我是说，我我认为，我认为失败是不好的，嗯，我不认为它是好事，嗯，但如果如果如果

事情足够重要，那么即使失败的风险很高，你你也会去做，嗯哼，嗯，而且而且所以我想，如果有人想创办一家公司，我的建议是，他们应该记住，最有可能的结果是，是它不会成功，而他们应该让自己接受那种 POS 强烈的可能性，嗯，而且只有当他们觉得自己，他们他们真的非做不可时，才应该去做，你知道，对吧，嗯，因为它，它，它会，创办公司的过程通常是，一开始，在最开始时还挺有趣，嗯，然后接下来的好几年真的会非常像地狱，你谈过嚼玻璃，是的，我有一个朋友，他是，呃，成功的创业者，嗯，而且呃，事实上他开始自己职业生涯的时间

和我差不多，他，他有一句很好很好很好的话，他叫bully，呃嗯，他说，是啊，你创办一家公司就像吃玻璃并凝视深渊，嗯，而且而且你总体上同意这话，基本属实，嗯，是的，而且而且而且而且如果你不吃玻璃，你就不会成功，那，那就是，是的，苦口良药，苦口良药，所以我们继续往下，稍后我们会深入谈创新和动机，但我想先把你的整个商业生涯过一遍，所以在创办SpaceX后不久，你接着对电动汽车产生了兴趣，据我了解，你看过《ev1之死》的画面，当时它们全都被砸毁了，谈谈那件事，以及以及为什么你觉得即使在创办SpaceX之后，我也必须参与

Tesla，是的，嗯，好吧，嗯，就像我说的，我对电动汽车的兴趣可以追溯到很久以前，你知道，可以追溯到20多年场景，是的，没错没错，嗯，而且而且事实上，我最初来到silen Valley的原因是研究电动汽车储能技术，对吧，嗯，而且而且我，我原以为，嗯，大型汽车公司会开发电动汽车，因为这显然是正确的举措，嗯，而且而且而且而且当通用汽车和呃丰田宣布它们的计划时，我以为这一点得到了证明，通用汽车在做ev1电动汽车一，丰田做了电动R 4，最初的那一款，嗯，而且它们发布了这些公告，然后，而且把这些车推向市场，我想，好吧，这，这太棒了，嗯，你，我们将会拥有电动

汽车，通用汽车显然会推出ev2和3，然后你知道，它们只会不断变得更好，一切都会很酷，嗯，而且呃，然后呃，当当加利福尼亚州放宽电动汽车法规时，通用汽车召回了所有ev1，呃，并把它们压成小方块，你知道，这看起来有点疯狂，嗯，所以事实上，呃，人们不希望自己的EV one被召回，是的，而且事实上，他们，他们试图申请法院命令阻止车辆被召回，他们，他们在车辆被压毁的场地举行了candle it vigil，好吧，你参加那次守夜活动了吗，没有，我，我没有，你因此受到触动吗，嗯，当然，我是说，这，这太疯狂了，如果，如果我是说，你上一次听说任何公司的顾客为

那个那个产品的消亡举行candle it viil是什么时候，嗯，尤其还是一款AGM产品，好吧，我是说，我是说，你还需要多大的警钟，这就像，就像，嘿，顾客对此真的非常不满，如果它没有被召回，他们真的会prer it，嗯，所以那，那，那有点让我震惊，所以我当时想，哇，好吧，嗯，然后呃，而且我们迎来了锂离子电池，这确实帮助，帮助了它，它使得，你知道，那是让电动汽车可行的关键因素之一，依然什么都没有，所以嗯，在2003年，呃，我实际上和公司的另一位联合创始人JB strael吃了午饭，他，嗯，当时实际上正在研究，我想，好像是氢动力飞机之类的东西，嗯，而且，嗯，他向我提到了，呃，由AC propulsion制造的，嗯，t0汽车，嗯，AC propulsion我

想是由一些人组成的，其中有些人实际上参与过ev1项目，而他们，呃，他们拿了一辆汽油跑车，类似套件车，并给它装上了，呃，装上了锂离子电池，算是消费者很棒的电芯，然后他们，嗯呃，造出了一辆车，它是，它本质上是Roadster的preaster，嗯，而且呃，而且事实上它的规格非常相似，嗯，所以subz、低于4秒从0加速到60英里/小时，嗯，250英里续航，而且，嗯，也是双座的某种跑车，但但它有，但它相当原始，嗯，它完全没有车顶这一样东西，嗯，而且事实上，我不知道它有没有车门，呃，但它没有任何安全系统，没有安全气囊，也没有通过认证，所以你不能销售它，嗯，因此为了销售那辆车，为了制造这辆

车的商业版本，也就是制造商能够生产并卖给人们的东西，还需要完成大量工作，而且呃，但总之，我一直试图让AC propulsion把，把t0商业化，我说，听着，我会，我会为整个项目提供资金，可以吗，你知道，你们真的需要做这件事，嗯，而他们，他们就是，他们就是有点拒绝去做，嗯，他们不想做，他们，他们想制造，呃，我想那个叫什么，呃，哦，他们想做类似电动Scion的东西，嗯，这在原则上听起来不错，只不过它要花75,000美元，而没人想买75,000美元的iion，嗯，而且而且呃，当时技术就是还没准备好，根本没有办法，去，去实现，嗯，物有所值的主张，嗯，而是什么，是什么迫使你说我必须

在这里担任CEO并领导这家公司，为什么不说，你知道，我会帮你JB搞定这个，搞定这个裁决，嗯，我真的不想同时担任2家公司的CEO，呃，事实上我非常非常努力地试图不这样做，呃，而且嗯，是的，所以总之，AC repulsion最后说，好吧，我，我其实告诉AC repulsion，听着，如果你们不做这件事，我就要创办一家公司来，来做做这件事，嗯，而他们说，嗯，还有其他一些人也有兴趣做这件事，嗯，而且你们应该合并力量，而且而且而且创办一家公司，嗯，而这基本上就是Tesla，呃，如何组建起来的，嗯，而且呃，然后我们经历了很多戏剧性事件，嗯，而且呃，但但是，我是说，我，我有，嗯，因为我是那个，你，我提供了大约95%的资金，所以我本可以从第一天起就担任CEO，但是

我真的，你知道，同时担任2家初创公司的首席执行官这个想法并不，呃，吸引人，顺便说一句，也不应该吸引人，如果有人觉得这是个好主意，那真的是个糟糕透顶的主意，但话说回来，你知道，回到你的，嗯，这段轨迹，你不只接下了2个，你接下了3个，我听说你在火人节上顿悟了，并决定你必须留意那些顿悟，燃烧，不一定是你应该追求的，嗯，然后你想出了这个主意，嗯，是的，这个，这个，呃，好吧，嗯，你知道，太阳能算是整个可持续能源这件事的一部分，所以，可持续能源，你必须拥有可持续的能源生产和消费方式，呃，所以即使你有电动汽车，你也必须考虑等式的另一边，也就是说

你如何以可持续的方式生产能源，嗯，我认为太阳能显然是可持续能源生产的主要方式，呃，事实上，如今地球几乎完全依靠太阳能，嗯，我们之所以不是一个大约处于3°开尔文的冰冻冰球，唯一的原因就是太阳，而太阳促成了所有降水，它，它支撑着生态系统的绝大部分，除去海底某种“chatres”的东西，所以，呃，人们用来，为文明提供动力的能量只占极小的一部分，相对于太阳朝我们大致这个方向输送的能量，这实际上是非常微小的能量，嗯，而为了处理这一点，事实上我们无法为整个世界供能

而且用太阳能可以相当轻松地做到这一点，这对人们来说或许并不是特别显而易见，那么，这就是你在火人节上的顿悟吗，是某种幻象吗，不，我早就知道，早在大学时我就知道，但你在火人节上获得的关键幻象是什么，我们都想象你在那里，幻象，嗯，呃，不，那更像是，嗯，那个，呃，我不会说那是某个特定的顿悟，更多是因为我当时在火人节，和，嗯，和我的堂表兄弟们，或者说我的2位堂表兄弟，呃，ly Lyon和Peter Lyon，还有Peter R，呃，他们都是很棒的人，而他们，他们当时有点在思考，在他们的，嗯，在他们的第1家初创公司之后应该做什么，所以他们创办了一家叫everdream的公司，做的是，嗯，大规模的计算机管理，所以如果你有比如60,000台

计算机，它们有点难以管理，所以他们编写了这个，他们创造了一款软件，使人们、公司能够做到这一点，嗯，而那家公司后来实际上卖给了戴尔，呃，嗯，所以他们当时在寻找一个新项目，也在寻找你的想法，嗯，我最初会寻找我的想法，但实际上我当时试图说服他们，他们应该做 solo，嗯，呃，而且，呃，因为我只是觉得，我只是觉得这是一个需要像他们这样的人的领域，呃，非常优秀、优秀的企业家，所以，呃，而且而且因为我算是有点承担过多了，至少可以这么说，是啊，呃，我就想，好吧，而且而且我说，你看，如果如果你们愿意做一家 solo 公司，我会，我会为你们找到，你知道，F 全部资金，而且，嗯，你知道，任何我能提供的指导或帮助

提供，呃，我会做，就是这样，而且我认为非常重要的是，在太阳能领域要有，呃，你知道，像他们这样的优秀企业家，因为这个行业当时就是发展得不、不太好，所以，嗯，而且我觉得人们算是没有把注意力集中在，他们没有把注意力集中在正确的问题上，嗯，每个人多少都认为，呃，面板是问题，但实际上它不是，它是，它是一个问题，但它不是，它不是最重要的问题，嗯，而且而且面板在这个时候已经有些商品化了，所以，你知道，制造标准效率的太阳能面板，难度大概就跟制造石膏板差不多，真的很容易，事实上我会说石膏板可能更难，嗯，而且，嗯，但是但是，真正棘手的问题是设法弄清楚

怎样把，嗯，太阳能装到数以万计、最终数以十万计的屋顶上，对吧，物流部分，是啊，这有点像你得给，嗯，数百万栋建筑重新铺屋顶，对吧，嗯，而且而且还要弄清楚电网互联如何运作，然后管理所有那些系统，比如，如果你最终有数十万、或者也许数百万套系统，你就得管理所有这些分布式系统，实际上你拥有的是一个非常复杂的分布式公用事业系统，嗯，我认为这实际上发挥了他、他们在创造方面的优势，发挥了他们的价格优势，即创造，呃，用于以分布式方式管理，你知道，数十万台计算机的真正可扩展软件，对吧，嗯，而且，呃，而且那就是，那差不多就是他们所做的，而且做得非常棒

工作，就像我基本上会出席董事会会议，听听这次有什么好消息，你知道，就像真的，你知道，我们可能开过几次有坏消息的董事会会议，嗯，2008年末确实开过一些有坏消息的董事会、董事会会议，但是，嗯，在大多数时候，除了宏观经济状况确实非常糟糕的少数、少数几次之外，嗯，他们就是做得非常出色，而且，你知道，几乎不需要我的帮助，所以你一直能够放心地把它交到他们手里，是啊，呃，他们理应获得那家公司成功的绝大部分功劳，太棒了，那么我想继续谈谈创新和动力，最近有很多说法认为，创新正在趋于平缓，我们没有取得像

飞机发明时那样显著的创新增长或改进，你、你同意吗，而且，呃，不，我不同意，我不认为那是真的，嗯，好吧，呃，我认为我们已经，我们已经看到，嗯，而且我不确定那确切指的是哪个时间段，但我们已经看到，嗯，互联网领域取得了巨大改进，还有新、新事物，呃，我的意思是，甚至在最近几年，当人们多少认为互联网已经完了时，Twitter和Facebook也发展得相当庞大，嗯，而且，呃，你知道，我认为我们正在做的一些事情，比如，你知道，电动汽车，也是一种新事物，呃，而且，呃，呃，我我我确实认为，基因组学方面有相当重大的突、突破，嗯，我们在解码基因组以及能够

编写遗传信息方面正做得越来越好，我认为那将是一个非常、非常庞大的领域，我认为人工智能领域可能会出现一些突破，嗯，而且，嗯，我猜我们甚至会看到飞行汽车，好吧，那会是埃隆·马斯克的作品吗，不，你打算让别人来做，呃，是啊，我，嗯，我认为别人，我认为别人在做那个，好吧，好吧，那是另一个话题，你觉得，呃，政府是否在以任何方式阻碍创新，嗯，有时，嗯，政府，我我不认为政府往往会挡住创新的道路，但有时它会，过度监管会变得非常棘手，嗯，我的意思是，在20世纪初，那个秩序行业曾经是创新的一大温床，但是，呃

但现在有太多旨在保护消费者的法规，嗯，我的意思是，汽车法规的文本可能会，像，塞满，你知道，这个房间，法规多得简直疯狂，细致到比如T、前照灯应该是什么样，而且他们甚至规定了仪表板用户界面的一些元素，而其中一些已经完全不合时宜，嗯，因为它们，它们对应的是以前那种用一盏小灯照亮一个图像的时代，嗯，所以比如说，我们必须在Model S的仪表盘上为所有那种汽车会有的指示灯预留空间，你知道，就是这些小灯，比如检查发动机之类的，是啊，比如所有这些小小的

东西，有一大堆，而且那个空间里不能有任何其他东西，比如，呃，为什么不设置一个区域并呈现不同的图形，比如，哦，不行，因为人们预期会在那个位置看到它，比如根本没人预期会在那个［音乐］位置看到它，是啊，所以你觉得你无法对这些法规提出异议，只能，嗯，你可以提出异议，但不会有多大成效，呃，而且而且你实际上可以让这些东西得到修改，但要花上漫长的时间，嗯，比如我们正努力争取的一件事是，比如，比如如果你可以安装，比方说，小型摄像头、微型摄像头，并让它们，你知道，在车内显示图像，为什么还应该有侧后视镜，嗯，但有所有这些法规规定你必须有侧

后视镜，而且我去见了交通部长，问能不能修改这项法规，至今还是什么都没有发生，那大概是2年前的事了，嗯，你知道，所以你的头有点撞上了一堵墙，修改这些法规并不容易，那么说到政府，呃，奥巴马总统显然正尽其所能，如果你能和奥巴马总统谈5分钟，你会就刺激经济、创业和创造就业机会给他什么建议，有没有哪一件事是如果他能成功推动通过，就会成为一项重大刺激措施，你觉得呢，嗯，我其实认为，嗯，我我认为当总统的现实是，你实际上就像一艘非常巨大的船的船长，却只有一个小小的船舵，嗯，因为因为显然

如果，我是说，如果有一个按钮，总统按下去就意味着经济繁荣，你会觉得他们会飞快地按下那个按钮，全速前进。你可以用他们按下那个按钮的速度来衡量光速，因为那会是，那就叫连任按钮。嗯，所以，所以，所以我不确定总统实际上能做多少，但，嗯，但我认为，我认为，呃，呃，你知道，我，我通常赞成政府尽量少干预经济。嗯，比如政府应该有点像裁判，而不是运动员。嗯，而且裁判不应该太多。嗯，但，但是，嗯，有一种例外情况，那就是存在，呃，未被定价的外部性。嗯，比如海洋和大气吸收 CO2 的容量。所以，当你有

一种未被定价的外部性时，正常的市场机制就不起作用了，这时政府的角色就是以一种合理的方式进行干预。嗯，而最好的干预方式就是，就是为正在被消耗的任何公共资源设定一个恰当的价格。嗯，然后，然后，所以你是说应该对汽油征税，应该对碳征税。你知道，如果坏事是，呃，碳在大气中积累，那么，那么就需要对那个发动攻击。嗯，然后我们可以，那将会，然后你取消所有补贴和其他一切。嗯，而且看起来合乎逻辑的是，你应该对最有可能是坏的东西征税，而不是，你知道，比如，比如这就是为什么我们对香烟和酒精征税。嗯

因为那些，那些东西可能对你有害。嗯，香烟肯定是。嗯，而且，嗯，所以，所以，呃，你，所以，所以你会宁可偏向于对可能有害的东西征税，而不对那些好的东西征税。嗯，所以我认为，鉴于确实需要征税来，嗯，你知道，支付联邦政府的开支，我们应该把税收负担转移到坏东西上，然后根据会促成我们认为对未来有益的行为，调整对那种坏东西征收的税。我是说，我，我认为目前，你知道，我们现在正在做的事情，就是开采并燃烧数万亿吨碳氢化合物，它们过去深埋在地下，而现在我们把它们塞进大气中，并且正在进行

这场针对大气的疯狂化学实验。嗯，然后还有那些拥有多得离谱的资金的石油和天然气公司。嗯，你不能指望它们就这样认输等死，它们不会那么做。嗯，所以实际上，它们更愿意做的是花费巨额资金进行游说，开展虚假的广告宣传之类的事情，以维持它们的处境。嗯，你知道，这很像，很像，呃，过去的烟草公司。我是说，它们以前会投放这些有医生的广告，比如，嗯，一个和医生在一起的家伙，你知道，一个假装自己是医生的人。呃，你知道，实质上暗示吸烟对你有好处，还让怀孕的母亲在广告中吸烟。嗯，你有什么话想对气候变化怀疑论者以及大型

石油公司的人说吗？嗯，至于气候变化怀疑论者，我是说，比如我，你知道，我喜欢，我相信科学方法，而且一个人应该，一个人应该对总体上的事物保持健康的怀疑态度。而且，你知道，就好像，如果你首先从科学角度看待事物，你总是以概率而不是确定性的方式看待事物。所以我认为，很多很多时候，如果科学界的某个人是怀疑论者，他们真正表达的是，他们不确定情况是否100%就是这样。但那，那，那不是重点。重点是，嗯，就是，就是，就是，就是从另一面看它，看看，你认为这件事对地球人口中某个有实际意义的比例造成灾难性后果的概率是多少？是

它大于1%吗，甚至有1%吗，嗯，如果哪怕有1%，我们为什么还要做这个实验，对吧，你称它为俄罗斯轮盘赌，我们在拿大气层玩俄罗斯轮盘赌，我们在玩俄罗斯轮盘赌，而且随着一年年过去，我们还在往弹巢里装入更多子弹，这不明智，嗯，所以这就是，而且让这件事疯狂至极的是，反正石油都会耗尽，不是说存在某种无限的石油供应，我们会把它用光，所以我们知道，无论如何都必须转向一种可持续的交通方式，那么为什么还要做这个实验，对吧，这是世界上最愚蠢的实验，对吧，是的。[掌声] 那么我们接下来把重点转向硅谷，史蒂夫·乔布斯曾经是、现在也是一位了不起的硅谷

偶像，他是你钦佩的人吗，你从史蒂夫的生活和工作中学到了什么？呃，嗯，他当然是我钦佩的人，嗯，尽管我有一次确实试图在一个派对上和他说话，而这对我超级无礼，呃，但我觉得那不是我，我觉得那算是，你知道，PO 那门课程。我想你不是第一个。是的，不是第一个，不是。那次是，嗯，不过，不过，呃，是的，而且我当时实际上和拉里·佩奇在一起，他是我的老朋友，我从拉里为 Google 获得风险投资之前就认识他了，而拉里就是把我介绍给史蒂夫·乔普的人，所以并不是说我走过去拽着他的外套，像是，你知道，求你跟我说说话，嗯，不过你知道，所以由拉里·猪来介绍，也不算差，所以，嗯，不过，呃，我是说，他显然是

一个不可思议的人，做出了非常棒的产品，呃，那些，那些，嗯，你知道，而且我知道像是有某种，嗯，这个人身上有某种魔力，你知道，大概就是那种感觉，那确实非常鼓舞人心。所以我是说，我觉得那真的很棒。你会尝试效仿那种魔力吗？呃，不会，我觉得史蒂夫·乔布斯比我酷多了。所以，哦，好吧，那么我想稍微深入了解一下你的头脑，你知道，当你想出一个点子时，你会把它涂画在记事本上吗，还是会拿出 iPad 记笔记？我是说，当你想出某个新东西时，你知道，一种新的火箭设计或者不管是什么，它是如何呈现出来的？我们能看到你发挥创造力时的样子吗？嗯，这多少有些老套，但它会发生

很多时候是在淋浴时，嗯，我不知道淋浴有什么特别的，或者，对，没错，把摄像机拿来，嗯，像是，Y，嗯，不，我只是，不，我确实，我就只是站在淋浴间里，嗯。所以你洗澡时间很长。我确实洗很久，说“洗很久”听起来不太对，嗯，不过是的，我确实如此，嗯。而且更不用提在火人节产生的顿悟了，嗯，对，那些，那些非常重大，嗯。所以，是的，我觉得那就是，呃，是的，而且，而且，而且之后，嗯，有时是在深夜，呃，如果我一直在思考某件事，那么我就睡不着，我会醒着，你知道，好几个小时，嗯，思考着，大概就是在房子里踱来踱去，思考各种事情，而且，嗯，偶尔我会，我会画点什么，或者给自己发一封电子邮件，或者做些类似的事。对，那么我们有一个来自

观众的问题，嗯，谁给了你启发，或者你有导师吗？嗯，嗯，严格来说我没有曼特罗，不过我会努力，我会努力从尽可能多的人那里获得反馈，嗯，而且，嗯，所以我有，我有一些朋友，我会问他们，你知道，他们对这个、那个、那个以及其他事情怎么看，而且，嗯，你知道，正如刚才提到的，你知道，拉……拉里是个好……拉里·P 是我的好朋友，我非常看重他的建议，嗯，而且，嗯，我还有许多其他好朋友，呃，所以，所以我觉得获得反馈很好，尤其是负面反馈，事实上，因为你知道，很显然，人们并不……不喜欢给你负面反馈，嗯，除非，除非是在某些，你知道，在、在、在博客上，他们确实会那么做，嗯。是的，你如何应对负面反馈，因为你受到过一些

严厉的，嗯，批评，尤其是在 SpaceX 方面，你遇到过像尼尔·阿姆斯特朗这样的既有势力，他甚至，呃，公开发声说这是错的，我们不希望，你知道，商业公司进入太空，那里不是做生意的地方。那么你当时是怎么应对的，而且一般来说你如何应对，因为你经历过很多。是的，那有点令人不安，呃，因为，呃，你知道，成长过程中，NE 算是一个英雄，所以那就像，那感觉挺糟糕的，你知道，退后，那是个不小的打击。是的，嗯，所以，是的，不过我，我觉得就他的情况而言，他多少受到了操纵，你知道，被其他利益方面操纵了，所以我觉得他很清楚自己在那些、那些国会听证会上说了什么。所以，是的。好，而且，嗯，谈谈，你知道，在淋浴时、在火人节产生这些美妙的想法是一回事，但还有

另一回事，那就是组建、激励并留住一支由优秀人才组成的团队。你能谈谈一些诀窍，以及你学到的、显然对你有效的东西吗？是的，嗯，好吧，我是说，如果你思考一家公司，公司就是一群被组织起来创造一种产品或服务的人，呃，这就是公司。所以，所以为了，嗯，创造这样的东西，你必须说服其他人加入你的努力，而且，而且，而且他们必须确信，那，那，那是一件明智的事，像是至少有一些、一些不错的、一些合理的成功机会，呃，而且如果，如果成功了，回报将与所付出的努力相称，嗯，而且，呃，你知道，所以，所以我觉得，让人们相信你

正在做的事，呃，以及相信你，是，是，是很重要的。嗯，所以在，在一开始，会有，会有，呃，很少的人会，会相信你或者你正在做的事，嗯，而且，呃，不过随后随着时间推移，当你取得进展时，证据会不断积累，而且，而且更多、更多的人会相信你正在做的事。所以，嗯，我觉得创办公司时，一个好主意是，嗯，创造它，拿出一个演示，或者你知道，如果它是产品，就拿出一个好的标记稿，或者即使，如果，如果它是软件，也要有好的演示软件，或者能够画出某种草图，让人们真正设想出它是怎么回事，嗯，我觉得那就是，要尽快努力达到那个阶段，然后迭代，以尽可能快地让它变得尽可能真实，嗯，是的，我，如果这样说

讲得通的话，不过，好吧，所以你在经营，你是2家公司的首席执行官，你是 Solar City 的董事长，谈谈时间管理，你究竟是怎么做到的？嗯，你有睡觉吗？呃，有时候睡得不够。睡眠真的很棒，呃，因为，因为我发现，如果睡眠不足，那么我会非常暴躁，嗯，我是说，显然我觉得大多数人都是这样，嗯，而且，而且，而且还有，嗯，像是我会努力大致弄清楚合适的睡眠量是多少，因为我，我发现我可以，我可以降低 AOW 某个睡眠阈值，虽然我会多醒着几个小时，而且我也能维持下去，但我完成的事情会更少，因为，嗯，思维敏锐度会受到影响。所以我发现，总体而言，对我来说合适的数字是平均每晚大约6到6个半小时，嗯，那

不算太糟。是的，对，而且还有其他诀窍吗，平均来说，不过，还有其他什么诀窍能让你同时经营2家公司？我是说，你会，你会发现，我是说，我知道你周一、周二在这里，你在硅谷时是不是全部时间都给 Tesla，而周三、周四全部给 SpaceX？有一部，大概是，嗯，有一部智能手机极其有帮助，因为这意味着你可以在，嗯，间隙时间处理电子邮件，比如你在车里、你在走路、在洗手间，任何地方，你几乎只要醒着就能处理电子邮件，嗯，而且，呃，所以把太空和 Tesla 的电子邮件整合到我的手机上真的很有帮助，嗯，然后，呃，然后就是，你必须投入大量时间去实际工作，真正工作。所以我通常的做法

是，周一我会，呃，在 SpaceX 工作，然后周一晚上飞往湾区，呃，周二和周三待在 Bara，然后在，在 Tesla，接着周三晚上飞回去，周四和周五在 SpaceX 度过，嗯，在、在、在过去几个月里，之后我会在周六飞回这里，嗯，要么周六和周日都在 Tesla 度过，呃，要么周六在 Tesla、周日在 SpaceX，嗯，而且，而且那些男孩安排在哪里？你有5个儿子，嗯。是的，他们会跟着爸爸参加其中一些行程吗？我确实会拉着他们参加很多事情，事实上，嗯，他们非常不为所动。是的，我希望他们会更感兴趣一些，不过我是说，他们才，双胞胎是8岁，三胞胎是6岁，所以也许他们会变得更、更感兴趣

以后，不过你有没有想过有一天培养他们中的1个或几个来接管你的公司？嗯，我，我是说，我觉得如果，如果，如果他们有这个意愿，我是说，如果他们真的对在 teslo SpaceX 工作感兴趣，那么我，你知道，会帮助他们那么做，嗯。我不确定是否一定想在某个时候试图把他们安插进首席执行官的职位，你知道，这有点像，如果，如果，呃，如果团队里的其他人和董事会多少觉得他们是合适的人选，那就，那就没问题，不过，呃，我不希望人们觉得我多少是，你知道，把，你知道，我的，我的孩子安插在那里，嗯，而且我觉得那对公司或者孩子来说都不会真的有好处，嗯，呃，不过，不过我，我，我实际上曾经一度在学校上方想到，嗯，你知道，这

最好把一个人差不多99%或更多的资产捐出去，嗯，有点像巴菲特学派之类的，嗯，我大体上仍然倾向于那个方向，但看到福特、通用和克莱斯勒发生的事情后，通用和克莱斯勒破产了，但福特没有，而且福特似乎比另外两家公司做出了更好的长期选择，这在一定程度上是因为福特家族的影响，嗯，我就想，好吧，保留一些较长期的家族所有权或许有一定道理，至少，至少保留一部分，这样它就能发挥积极影响。呃，这仍然是我正在思考的事情，但它能在长期内发挥积极影响，让公司确实会去做恰当的长期之事，嗯，而且就像我……

你知道，如果看看硅谷的惠普也发生了什么，我，我觉得这相当、相当、相当令人难过，嗯，而且，而且，而且在某种程度上，这是因为休利特和帕卡德家族的影响力大幅减弱了，对吧，嗯，我认为他们本应在他们的，你知道，在他们反对一度发生的那场合并时占上风，而且我认为他们其实是对的。对了，继续并展望 SpaceX 的未来，今年有 IPO 计划吗？没有，没有 IPO 计划，没有。嗯，可以说，经营一家上市公司确实、确实有它的弊端。嗯，所以你不着急？不。好吧，嗯，我是说，就 Tesla 和 SpaceX 而言，呃，我们，我们必须筹集资本，嗯，而且我们的股权结构有些复杂。

那需要通过上市来解决，嗯，而且，嗯，所以，所以我觉得在那两种情况下，我们算是需要那么做。SpaceX 不必那么做。我想，觉得我们很有可能会在未来某个时候上市，但是，但是 SpaceX 的目标是，是超级长期的，而市场却不是，所以我有点担心，如果我们确实上市，特别是如果我们过早上市，那，那种市场压力会，会迫使我们去做，呃，短期的事情，并放弃像前往火星这样的长期项目。对，前往火星非常长期。是的，那是一件重要的事。那么你确实还有其他暂时搁置的项目，你谈到过超级高铁，呃，一种让人们从洛杉矶市中心前往旧金山市中心、用时不到

半小时的方式。一架电动超音速飞机。对。这两个项目中，哪一个正在酝酿之中，以至于我们近期可能会听到更多消息？嗯，我，我确实承诺过，我会，嗯，就超级高铁的构想写点东西，嗯，而且，呃，去年年底时事情变得有点、有点忙乱，呃，因为我有，我有这些，曾承诺要在 Tesla 向公开市场达成这些里程碑，而且，嗯，我必须信守那项义务，嗯，这需要的工作量和专注程度简直疯狂，而且，嗯，而且后来我们还有 SolarCity 的首次公开募股，那是一场非常难以完成的首次公开募股。我是说，那次首次公开募股简直是勉强才成功。我是说，那是如此、如此艰难的一次。你是不是下定决心必须在 12 月完成？嗯，如果不是在

12 月，那就意味着要把它推迟，你知道，推迟相当长一段时间，嗯，而且，呃，问题在于我们已经把它推迟了相当长一段时间，所以如果我们不上市，就得进行一轮私募，然后，嗯，而且整件事就会让人感觉不对劲，你知道，就像你坐在，就像你，你知道，在，在圣坛前却不举行、不举行婚礼，那就像是，有点尴尬，你知道，嗯，至少可以这么说。对。呃，所以，所以我们真的需要，我们真的需要这么做，嗯，而且，而且，呃，而且我认为如果我们没有这么做，人们会把它视为一次失败，那样不会有好处，嗯，因为太阳能领域已经有太多失败，或者太多，不够成功，可以这么说。在太阳能领域，他们需要算是，我们

需要把成功扼住，在……这是这个太阳能之年里罕见的一缕阳光；讽刺的是，太阳能行业并没有太多阳光。是的。那么很遗憾，现在到了最后一个问题。自从你还是那个打破规则的 6 岁小男孩以来，你已经走了很远，嗯，你今年满 42 岁，对吗？接下来有什么安排？你觉得 10 年后、20 年后、40 年后自己会在哪里？因为你有句名言，说你想死在火星上，只是不是死于撞击，对吧？完全正确。给我们讲讲那个梦想。嗯，对，其实有记者问我，你想死在毛斯吗，我说是，然后我就说，但是等等，不，不是撞击身亡，澄清一下。那是其中一种可能性，嗯，所以，嗯，对，所以我，呃，我想，嗯，我，我是说，我希望能够

在我仍然能够还算顺利地应付这段旅程时前往火星，所以我想，比如说，我不想等到 75 岁才去火星。你不想随身带着助行架，对吧？呃，你知道，它，它，它可能会，至少在最开始，可能会，你知道，轻微地……［词语残缺］，所以，嗯，我想，我希望，我希望能到那里，嗯，我不知道，我是说，理想情况下是在我 50 多岁时，那会，那会挺酷的。所以你认为那会在接下来的……嗯，我是说，我，我渴望让它成为现实，而且我，我能看到它成为现实的可能性，嗯，而且，嗯，我不是说它一定会发生，但我，我，我，我认为它可能发生，嗯，我会努力让它发生。很好，女士们先生们，埃隆·马斯克，非常感谢你

welcome ladies and gentlemen to the Computer History Museum I'm John holler the CEO and it's my pleasure to welcome you tonight on behalf of our trustees our staff our members our amazing volunteers all the people involved in making the museum a great place uh thank you thank you for being here tonight for the kickoff of our revolutionaries speaker series for 2013 we have major funding for the Revolutionary speaker series from Intel we're delighted to have Intel support for the fourth year running now and it's just it's fantastic because it enables everything that we do to make these revolutionaries programs possible we also also get additional funding from the William K Bose Foundation I want to say a special thank you to Tesla for arranging to have

a Model S here this evening I hope you had a chance to see the Model S downstairs we've been looking forward for years to an event when we could have the Motor Trend Car of the Year at the Museum and we have it here tonight so thank you to Tesla we asked SpaceX for a rocket that proved to be a little more challenging but maybe someday and now for tonight's program Here's a thought exercise if you compiled a list of the 75 most influential people of the 20th Cent Century who would be on your list or if you compile perhaps a list of the hundred people who most affected the world in the 20th century who would be on that list now think of the same list that you might start compiling for the 21st century so far and if all of that proves to be a little too

much I can offer some help Elon Musk has been on every single one of those lists that has been compiled for the 20th century to date no matter who seems to be drawing the lists up few scientists entrepreneurs or industrialists of the last century could stake a claim to a career as boldly ambitious as the one Elon Musk is fashioning now transforming a large measure of the world's Commerce and payment systems as co-founder and chairman of PayPal in 1999 might be enough for anyone for one lifetime but Elon Musk has gone on from there to pursue his passion for solving business environmental and scientific problem problems on a global scale he may be best known for his work at Tesla where he serves as CEO and head of product design the path breaking Tesla

Roadster and now the model S have changed almost all of the assumptions that the automotive world has made about what the styling performance and future of a new generation of electric cars might be simultaneously he serves as chairman and principal shareholder of Solar City the nation's leading provider of solar power systems but perhaps his most ambitious and intriguing work is taking place at SpaceX where he is CEO and chief designer SpaceX is erasing the boundaries between space flight and private Enterprise it has a multi-billion dollar multi-year agreement with NASA to be a Workhorse for cargo flights to and from the International Space Station and in 2015 that is the company's stated goal it will begin man space FL what is the source of Elon musk's

revolutionary thinking how has he been able to do what he's done with the investors he's attracted and the teams that he's built exploring these questions and more tonight with Elon is Allison van digan who is a very notable and noteworthy journalist here in Silicon Valley a contributor to KQED in The Huffington Post and one of the best interviewers in the field through her series fresh dialogues we're delighted to have Allison here tonight this is her first time on stage she's going to be terrific as will Elon please join me in welcoming Elon Musk and Allison van [Applause] digan so I'd like to start uh you grew up in South Africa right and I heard a wonderful story of when you were six years old and you started breaking the rules even then so you were

six years old and you were invited by your cousin to a birthday party but there was only there were two problems with that one you were grounded and two it was on the other side of toone yeah so can you explain tell tell the audience how you got there uh all right well I mean this was when I was six so the memories are a little fuzzy at this point um but um as I recall uh yeah I I I was grounded for some reason I don't I don't know why but I think I felt that was unjust um and and um and I really wanted to go to this party my cousin's party uh who was five you know so this like kids party but um so uh I I I um I at first I was going to take my bike um but then and I told my mom this um which is a mistake um and and and she she told me some story about

how you needed a license for a bike and and the police would stop me so I wasn't 100% sure if she was that was true or not but I thought I'd better walk just in case um so yeah just I I I sort of thought I knew the way and uh but it was clear across town so I don't know it was 10 or 12 miles away it's really really quite far um further than I realized actually and uh so I just started walking to to my cousin's house I think it took me about 4 hours and um and just as my mom was leaving that party with my brother and sister she saw me walking down the road um and freaked out um and then I I saw I saw she saw me so I I then sprinted to my cousin's house and I was just just about two blocks away and then climbed a tree and refused to come down oh so the

first of many rule breaking Adventures for Elon Musk so by the by the time you were 12 you're already an entrepreneur and making a profit I understand you you you earn $500 equivalent in Rand uh for creating a video game can you tell us about that and what the inspiration was uh yeah sure um so I uh when when I was about 10 I walked into a computer store in in South Africa and um saw an actual computer um I previously had um some some early sort of precursors to to the the Atari uh system and then I got the Atari system which I'm sure a lot of people here have played um and uh and and but then I saw you could actually have a computer where you can make your own games and it was a Commodore Vic 20 um so that was the first computer I bought and um and then

and then I got some uh books on how to teach yourself programming and um and this was like the coolest thing um I'd ever seen so I was just like this is super awesome um and uh so started programming games uh and uh and then selling games in order to actually buy more games so bit of a circular thing so and more games and better computers and that kind of thing so right so the money wasn't the the end goal for you it was more a means to an end uh yeah um basically I'd spend money on um yeah better better computers and uh Dungeons and Dragons modules and things like that we nerd Master 3000 basically uh yeah so I understand at that time you were heavily into Comics I'm curious to know um did you love Iron Man the comic Iron Man I did kind of like Iron

Man yeah you did did you ever did you ever imagine that you would be the inspiration for the movie version I did not no that would that was that was pretty that was pretty much I would say 0% I would have said 0% chance what kind of kid were you I mean can you can you look back and see yourself were you were you a bit of a lunar kid bookish kid uh I certainly I wasn't all that much of a loner um at least not willingly um so um but but I I certainly was uh quite um I was very very bookish I was reading all the time so I was either reading uh working on my computer reading comics playing dungeons dragons that kind of thing and um I understand Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy that wonderful book by Douglas Adams that was a that was a key book for you what

what was it about that book that that fired your imagination um yeah so uh I guess when I was in the around 12 or 13 I had compan existential crisis and I was reading various books um on trying to figure out the meaning of life and well like what does it all mean because uh it starts seeming quite meaningless and then um uh my we happen to have like some some books by n and schopenhauer in the house which you should not read at age 14 is bad it's really negative um so so uh but but then I then I read hit is gu the Galaxy which like quite positive I think and um and sort of highlighted the the an important point which is that a lot of times the question is harder than the answer and if you can properly phrase the question then the answer is the easy part

um and so uh the if to the degree that we can um better uh understand the universe then we better know what questions to ask and um then whatever the question is that most appro approximates what's the meaning of life you know that that that's that's the question we could ultimately get closer to understanding um and so I thought well to the degree that we can expand the scope and scale of Consciousness and and knowledge um human knowledge then that would be a good thing wow so you're having these deep thoughts at what age 10 14 yeah sort of in the puberty I guess was 13 13 through 15 probably the most traumatic years right and so by the time you were 17 you were you were ready you were actually left right I assume you hatched the plan earlier when you

were around 14 15 I did hatch the plan earlier actually I I tried to hatch several plans uh which they did not hatch right um but by 17 you were on a plane from South Africa you you had enough of South Africa you were ready to seek new pastures now why was it the United States was your destination why not Europe or somewhere else in the world well just whenever I'd read about cool technology it would tend to be in the United States you know or more broadly North America or including Canada so um uh so I kind of wanted to be where The Cutting Edge of Technology was um and of course within the United States uh Silicon Valley is is the is where the the heart of things is so um although at the time I didn't know where Sil Valley was it sounded like a mythical

Place really great um so yeah so I I I wanted to come to the to the US I try to convince my um my mother or father who were divorced if either one of them would move to the United States then I could then I could get there at one point I convinced my father but then he renaged unfortunately um so you had him convinced and then he changed his mind he did say yes and then and then he changed his mind why I don't know I guess um he was sort he was fairly established he's an engineer he was sort of established in South Africa and didn't want to have to go through that again in another country right so you got on that plane all by yourself at 17 uh yeah so um I I actually got um my my mother was born in Canada and actually her her father was uh American U

but unfortunately she didn't get her American citizenship so then that broke the link and I couldn't get my American citizenship but she was born in Canada so I could get uh I actually filled up the forms for her and got her a Canadian passport and me too um and then as soon as within 3 weeks of my getting my Canadian passport I was in Canada right and then you ended up at University of Pennsylvania yeah you did degree in physics and business yeah so I I I was in Canada for a few years at Queens University got a scholarship to go down to uh University of Pennsylvania um because one of the downsides of of coming to University of North America was that my my parents said they would not would not pay for college if it was well my father said he would not

pay for college unless it was in South Africa so so it was either so I could have free college in or or find some way to pay it here and uh fortunately I got a scholarship at at upen and um and so did uh did he U business under dual undergraduate uh business and and physics at upan Wharton and it was there that you came up with this idea of three main areas that you felt were most important to humanity can you describe how You Came Upon them was it just one day you had a flash of inspiration these are the three areas that are important and I want to concentrate on or how did did that how did that inspiration come to you now I think I was thinking about it for a couple years um and during sort of freshman and sophore year at queens and then also at upen

um and I was trying to think what would most influence the future uh you know what the problems that we that we have to solve um and um and I I actually talked a lot to friends and and my housemates and that kind of thing and dates which is not maybe not the best thing so yeah um actually met uh met a woman I dated briefly in in college um who now works at Scientific American as a writer and uh and and she she related the anecdote that uh we went on a date I was all I was talking about was electric cars um that was not a big a winning conversation so it was a bit of a monologue was it yeah she said she said the first question I asked her was do you ever think about electric cars no she never does so you learn from that that wasn't the best shout out L

wasn't wasn't great it has recently it's been more effective there you go I know this man that's wonderful we'll get on to Tesla soon but I want to I want to um go from from University of Pennsylvania you ended up in Silicon Valley and you've described Silicon Valley as darwinian can you talk about what it was the most positive sense really and was positive um can you elaborate on what that means and why it had to be Silicon Valley what what Drew you to Silicon Valley um well uh well I was at I was at pen and um there was a professor who um who was chairman of a company in Sil Valley that was working on Advanced capacitors for use in electric cars or potentially for use in electric cars uh as it turns out they they're way too expensive but um but I thought

well this is this is really awesome because then I asked if I could get a summer job because it was in Silicon Valley and working on technology for electric cars I thought well that's that's pretty much as good as it gets um so I got a summer job here was in Las Godus actually um at at Pinnacle research uh doing um uh electrolytic uh Ultra capacitors which were um but they had a the problem was that they they used the ruthenium tantalum oxide um and there was I think only a few tons of ruthenium mined in the world um so not very scalable um and they you know they'd sell it to you by the sort of milligram so you know that's you know there's a problem um but but it had a pretty high energy density it's sort of roughly equivalent to a Le acid battery which

for capacitor is huge mhm but you ended up then after that at at Stanford yeah so then um I I thought well uh Stanford is in Silicon Valley sort of epicenter and so that's where I wanted to come um you Stanford or Berkeley and Stanford sort of Sunny air so I like to Sun air that's great and you I understand you were at Stanford University for a whole two days before you decided no it's time I'm going to do my first startup yeah I figured well um so this is a summer of '95 and uh uh and I've been working on some internet software so because the three things I thought were pick the world with internet um sustainable energy and and uh space exploration making life multiplanetary so uh the um but but on the internet thing I just couldn't figure out how to

make enough money to to feed myself you know cuz like uh if I didn't makes make make money then I would like run out of food and die so that was that was not good uh so basic needs right yeah literally um so whereas uh you know if I was a student then I could be teaching assistant and do you do various things and and and do research on um electric vehicle Tech technologies that that was my default plan but but then I also thought that if I if I did a PhD at Stanford then um I could I would spent several years watching the internet go through this incredibly rapid growth phase and that would be really difficult to to handle like it's like it really wanted to be doing something so you saw the wave growing it sort of really seemed like things were going

to take off um although nobody made any money on the internet at the time in '95 there was really nobody was making any money on the internet and in fact even on Sand Hill Road people were like what's the internet they amazingly um when we tried to get funding for a company in I think it was November or something of9 there about October November um more than half of the bench capitalists we met with did not know what the internet was and had not used it that's amazing yeah literally I like it's like isn't that they literally ask isn't that something that the government and universities use like uh for now but you know yeah uh but then then uh netgate went public in late 95 I think it was and then after that even though lot of vure capitalist still didn't

understand it and still hadn't used it they they somebody had made on it so now that was on the radar yeah so when we went to get funding the second time we tried to get funding um everyone was interested right so this company was zip 2 that's right and terrible name yeah what what what was the reason for that name um well we were just incredibly stupid at the time I think that was that's the the main reason for that name um and uh because we got some Ad Agency because we thought well we don't know anything about names so we'll get some add in to suggest a bunch of options and then zip two seemed kind of Speedy I don't know what the hell why the hell we chose that stupid name um and it has a digit it's like why would you pick it because it could be zip

to could be Zip T wo it could be zip t oo so like people like literally spelled the name every variation um which is bad if you got a URL and you don't have the other ones um so so um so is up to started off um as basically uh like said we're trying to figure out how to how to make enough money to exist as a company and the so so since there wasn't really any advertising money being made uh we thought we could um help existing companies get online bring their stuff online so we developed software that helped bring um lot of the newspapers and media companies online CU a lot of them just didn't they also didn't know what the internet was big customers didn't you yeah mhm um and and even the ones that were aware of the internet didn't have a software team

so they they weren't very good at developing functionality um and uh so we had as um investors and customers uh the New York Times company night rder H and and so we were able to get them to pay us to develop software for them to bring them online so online publishing stuff and we did maps and directions and yellow pages and white pages and uh various other things um and uh we developed quite sophisticated technology actually but um I it wasn't actually being employed super well by the media companies like we we would suggest ways to use it and then it would not be used as effectively as it could be it was very frustrating right but you did sell that company successfully to compact yeah right and that allowed you to go on and uh create x.

com that's right yeah exactly so um the yeah compac had uh had alter Vista so their their thought was combine alista and a bunch of other technology companies and see if that would if that would work which it did not um but but nonetheless they they they were pretty nice guys and bought the company and and that gave me the capital to to do another company and I want I want to do another company in the internet because I thought we haden't really reached the potential that we could have with with sub2 um because we had really sophisticated softare our software was sort of at least comparable to what Yahoo or excite or others had in fact I mean I thought in some ways it was better so uh but it wasn't because it was all filtered through these Partners it

wasn't getting properly used uh so I thought we um I I want to do something that could be more a more significant contrib contribution to the internet and um and so the initial thought was with financial services because um money is digital um it's low band with at the time there was you know most people were on modems still on modems and um because this was uh late 98 early 99 so this was x.

com was a precursor to PayPal basically you merged with confinity and it became PayPal major success yeah so it worked out better than we expected um yeah um so yeah uh confinity so initially confinity and EXO com started out with from slightly different directions and then converged to the same point um with with x the thought was to create integrated set of financial services um so you could go to one place and do all of your financial anything um and and then as a feature we had the ability to transfer money or Securities or anything simply by enter entering a unique identifier so like a you know email address or phone number or something like that um and uh but when we demo the system the hard stuff which was the integration of all the financial services

uh people would not be interested in but they'd be really interested in in being able to transfer money using an email address even though that was actually quite easy um and so we focused our our energy on that um and although it's easy in principle it uh what gets really hard is is adding um security while still keeping it easy to use that so because you know it's like the Willie lurman quote like why do people why do you rub Banks because that's where the money is so why do people rub PayPal the same reason um and and so you can e you can dial up the security to a really high level but then you're going to make it very hard to use um and and so that that that was was one of the toughest things we wrestled with um and then confinity originally started

as kind of um software for Palm pilots and and then they had a demonstration application which was the ability to beam money from one Palm Pilot to another using the infrared Port yeah people remember that one yes um that was big at one point um and and then they they had a website uh sort of parallel to that where you because once you beam the infrared tokens you had to still then um synchronize your P pilot and do the transfer via the website so but then people weren't that interested in the PM pilot stuff but they were interested in the website so we kind of converge to the same point um and we're quite close together so we we decided to merge the companies um and uh in I think January or so of 2000 was very toing period um and the the the growth in

the company was was pretty pretty crazy like we had at at the end of the first sort of four or five weeks we had 100,000 customers it's incredible incredible growth um did you anticipate that when you started definitely did not and and it wasn't all good because uh we had some bugs in the software uh and you know what even if the bug only occurs one in a thousand times still have, customers you have 100 very angry customers like where's my money that would be you know reasonable a reasonable concern that people would have and and then we we we had customer service on University and Avenue and paloalto uh there were five people um so when something went wrong customer service phones were basically explode oh my goodness um and uh so we we had many challenges

and then the various Financial Regulatory Agencies were trying to shut us down visa and mascard were trying to shut us down eBay was trying to shut us down uh FTC was trying to shut us down um there were a lot of battles there wow it's quite incredible with all that adversity you you conquered and you came out with hundred million right yeah it was a close call um we definitely I mean came very close to dying there in 2000 and 2001 um and what was the reason for that success what would you put it down to in that case how did you overcome uh well you know I think we had a really talented group of people at PayPal um and a lot of those people have actually gone on to start many other companies yes um you know YouTube LinkedIn Yelp uh Yammer um it's like

quite a long list actually um and so for you personally there you were with several hundred million were you not tempted just to go on buy an island um really what was it that drove you what I'm getting at because I I know you didn't but what I'm getting at is why were you so driven to jump into the next thing well I was um did you take any time off I I did take a bit of time off uh because um after PayPal um I did reasonbly well for PayPal I was the largest shareholder in the company so um and we required for about a billion and a half in stock and then the stock doubled so um so you know it did did reasonably reason well but the the idea of of like lying on a beach as my main thing uh just sounds like the worst that sounds horrible to me uh just boredom

factor I would go Bonkers I would you know um I would have to be on serious drugs I mean just or serious P coladas right exactly I mean it's just I'd be super duper bored um so that uh I mean I like I like high intensity um I mean I like going to beach for a short period of time uh but but not much longer than like you know a few days or something like that right so let's talk about the seeds of SpaceX I understand it started not as the idea of let's let's start start a rocket ship company uh you had a philanthropic idea you were really surprised when you found out that NASA didn't have any plans to go to Mars and you came up with this idea of let's put a greenhouse on Mars so can you explain how that whole idea came into being for for SpaceX sure well

um so so when I was thinking of like what I thought would would affect the world uh as a student it wasn't really from the standpoint of those are the things I'll get involved in it was kind of more in the abstract these are the things I think will happen that will affect the world um but but not that I will be involved in them as it turns out I have but uh I I always thought that we would make much more progress in space um and it just it just didn't happen it was it was really disappointing so um uh yeah I was I was was really quite bothered by it MH um so you know when we went to the moon um we were supposed to have a base on the moon we're supposed to send people to Mars and that stuff just it just didn't happen it we went backwards um you we got

the space shuttle but the space shuttle could only go to lowth orbit where a Saturn 5 could go to the moon now the space shuttle is gone and so that just seemed like a a really bad thing so uh I thought um well maybe it was a question of of um there not being enough attention or will to to do this um but this I this was was this was a wrong assumption so I um so but that that's the reason for the greenhouse idea was to the thought was if if um if there could be sort of a small philanthropic Mission to Mars you know so I wasn't I was expecting to lose all all the money that I invested in in that um but if we could send a small Greenhouse to the surface of Mars with with seeds in in dehydrated nutrient Deale and hydrated Point Landing and you'd have this

great shot of you know little Greenhouse with with little green plants with on on a red background um I thought that would get people excited so you literally imagined a photograph inspiring a new generation yeah you got to sort of imagine the money shot if you will um so so yeah I think I think you know green plants in red background would be that um and and people tend to get interested and excited about precedents and superlatives so this would be the furthest that life's ever traveled the F the first life on Mars um as far as we know um and uh and I thought well maybe that would result in in a in a bigger budget for NASA and and um and then we could sort of resume the journey that was the basic idea and and I I spent several months on this actually

and uh went to Russia three times um because I was able to to figure out how to get the cost of the spacecraft low and the communications and the the the greenhouse and all that to a reasonable number reasonable meaning several million dollars um and did you have did you actually physically draw out a greenhouse of how you imagine yeah yeah actually I hope we got that somewhere um that would be amazing to see yeah um I mean I'm sure it looks pretty goofy in retrospect but but that's the that's the idea that we had and it's um so and I I spent several hundred,

just kind of getting the design worked out and engaging some companies to um come up with the design specifications for the subsystems um and uh and then but then it came to buying the rocket and the problem was that the the cost of rockets is really high uh and the lowest cost rocket in the us at the time was the uh the Delta 2 Boeing Delta 2 and and that would have been about $50 million um yeah and then you need still need to have like an upper stage from so probably 60 million all in and that was uh and I wanted to do two of these missions because I thought if if it did just one and and it didn't work then that could have like the the opposite of effect like look how dumb it is to do to to try a same all this money down the drain right what an idiot

so so I wanted to do two and I just didn't have enough money to to do two complete missions so you had a budget of about 100 million something like that well I was hoping it would be less than that but uh but not more than I mean not more than that um but but then yeah I guess roughly on that order is about most I'd be I mean I couldn't I couldn't spend much more than that uh so um so the Russians didn't help you out yeah had three three quite interesting trips to Russia to try to uh negotiate purchase of two Russian icbms yeah and did they think you had evil inent no they just thought I was crazy uh but I mean that's not good either U if you're buying icbms um but minus the nuke I mean I think that would have been a lot more so so you didn't talk nukon

no I I mean I didn't I I got slightly got the feeling that that was on the table if I which which was very alarming um but but yeah that that was uh those are very weird meetings um with with the the Russian military and whatnot um I mean I think they they thought I was bit crazy but then they thought they read about PayPal and okay it was crazy he's got money uh he did something right yeah well and more importantly I could pay him um right yes so so that's that's really I mean there yeah it was remarkably capitalist was was my impression of the Russians yeah right right i' I have heard that before yep um so tell me how what was the turning point from you know talking with the Russians and then deciding okay I'm going to do this I'm going to set up a

company what was that turning point for you well um I I I guess I I I had I came conclusion that um my initial premise was was wrong uh that in fact the um there's there's a great deal of will uh you know that there there's there was not such a shortage um but people don't think there's a way um and and that if people thought there was there was a way or at least something that wouldn't you know break the federal budget um then then people would support it um which in retrospect I think is actually kind of obvious because um the the United States is a distillation of the human Spirit of exploration um people came here from other places um I mean it's you know there's no n there's no I mean there's no nation that that's more a nation of explorers than

un United States but but people need to believe that it's possible and it's that it's not you know it's they don't have to give up like healthcare or something important you know it's just it's got to be that that that's that's important so so I thought okay well then it's not a question of will it's it's a question of showing that there's a way um and and the and I started reading quite a bit about Rockets to try to understand why they're so so freaking expensive um um you know is there something you know where does this the $60 million go for the Delta 2 um and that's subsequently Now Delta 2 I think is1 $100 million even some crazy number um and Delta 2 is I mean that's a relatively smaller rocket um so if you go to like a really you know one of the

bigger Rockets it's anywhere from $200 to $400 million um anyway so so I came conclusion that there there wasn't really a good reason for Rockets to be so expensive um and and and that there could be a lot less and even in in Expendable format uh there could be less and uh and and that in if one could make them reusable like airplanes then the cost of rocketry would go would drop dramatically cost of space travel would drop dramatically because the the cost of the fuel was maybe anywhere from 0.

2 to .

5% of the cost of the rocket right um you know it's kind of like a plane I mean how much is the cost of the fuel in the plane versus the plane itself it's a at least a two of magnitude difference um but nobody had really been able to make a reusable rocket work so that that but I thought okay that if we can do that then that would that would really be the the key breakthrough for space travel right but you also said that so far we have not succeeded I should point out um you've also said that failure was the most likely outcome can you talk about failure in that sense and in a broader sense of being an entrepreneur and an innovator why is failure so important uh well I I mean I I think I think failure is bad um I don't think it's good um but if if if

is important enough then you you do it even though the risk of failure is high MH um and and so I think my advice if somebody is wants to start a company is they should bear in mind that the most likely outcome is is that it's not going to work and they should reconcile themselves to that POS strong possibility um and they should only do it if they feel that they they they are really compelled to do it you know right um because it's it's it's going to the way starting company works is like usually in the beginning it's the very beginning it's kind of fun um and then it's really hellish for for a number of years you talked about chewing glass yeah there's there's a a friend of mine who's uh successful entrepreneur um and uh started actually his career

around the same time as I did and he he has a good good good phrase his name's bully uh um he said yeah your starting a company is like eating glass and staring into the abyss um and and you agree with that generally true um yeah and and and and if you don't eat the glass you're not going to be successful that's that's yeah tough medicine tough medicine so let's move along and we're going to get down into Innovation and motivation shortly but I want to just go through your whole business career first so shortly after founding SpaceX you then got interested in electric vehicles and I understand you watched the visuals for the death of the ev1 when they were all smashed talk about that and and why you felt even after founding SpaceX I have to get involved

with Tesla yeah um well um as I said like my interest in electric vehicles goes back a long time to you know goes back 20 plus years scene yeah EXC exactly um and and in fact the the original reason I came silen Valley was to work on electric vehicle energy storage technology right um and and I I thought that um that the big car companies would develop electric cars because obviously the right move um and and and and I thought that was Vindicated when General Motors and uh Toyota announced their General Motors was doing the ev1 Electric Vehicle One Toyota did the electric R 4 the original one um and they made those announcements and then and they brought those to Market and I thought okay well this is this is great um you we're going to have electric

cars GM's going to obviously do the ev2 and three and then you know they just get keep getting better and everything would be cool um and uh and then uh when when California relaxed its regulations on electric cars GM recalled all of the ev1s uh and crushed them into little cubes you know which is seems kind of nutty um so in fact uh the people didn't want their EV ones recalled yeah and in fact they they tried they tried court orders to stop the cars from being recalled they they held a candle it vigil okay at the yard where the cars were crushed did you attend that vigil no I I did I did not you moved by it well certainly I mean it's it's crazy if if I mean when is the last time you heard about any company customers holding a candle it viil for the

demise of that that product um particularly AGM product okay I mean I mean what bigger wake up call do you need it's like it's like hello the customers are really upset about this they would really prer it if it didn't get recalled um so that that that kind of blew my mind so I was like wow okay um and then uh and we had the Advent of lithium ion batteries which really helps helps the it makes you know that that's one of the key things for making electric cars work it's still nothing and so um in 2003 uh actually had lunch with one of the other co-founders of the company JB strael who um was actually working I think on like a hydrogen airplane or something um and um he mentioned to me uh the um t0 car that was done by AC propulsion um AC propulsion I

think consist of guys some of who had actually been on the ev1 program and they uh they took an a gasoline sports car kind of a kit car and outfitted it with uh with lithiumion batteries sort of consumer great cells and they um uh created a car which was which is essentially the preaster of the Roadster um and uh and in fact it had very similar specifications um so subz sub4 second 0 to 60 milph um 250 mile range and um also two-seater sort of sports car but but it had but it was quite primitive um it didn't have a roof one thing at all um and in fact I don't know if it had doors uh but it didn't have any Safety Systems no airbags it wasn't homologated so you couldn't sell it um so in order to sell that car in order to create a commercial version of the

car something that a manufacturer could produce and sell to people there was a fabit of work that was required and uh but anyway I kept trying to get AC propulsion to commercialize the the t0 and I said look I'm going to I'll fund the whole effort can you know you really need to do this um and they they just they just sort of refused to do it um they didn't want to do it they they wanted to make uh I think the what's that uh oh they want to make like an electric Scion um which in principle sounds good except that it would have cost $75,000 and nobody wants to buy $75,000 iion um and and uh the technology just was not ready there was just no way to to make um a good value for money proposition um and what was what was it that compelled you to say I have

to be CEO here and Lead this company why not say you know I'll help you JB get this get this ruling well I really didn't want to be CEO of two companies uh if I tried super really hard not to be actually uh and um yeah so anyway so AC repulsion finally said Okay I I actually told AC repulsion look if you're not going to do this I'm going to create a company to to do do this um and they said well there's some other guys who are also interested in doing that um and you guys should combine efforts and and and create a company um and that's basically how Tesla uh came together um and uh and then we had like a lot of drama um and uh but but I mean I I had um since I was the you I provided like 95% of the money so I could have been the CEO from day one but

I really you know the idea of being CEO of two startups at the same time was not uh appealing and shouldn't be appealing by the way if anyone's thinking that's a good idea it's really terrible idea but then again you know going back to your um trajectory here not only did you take on two you took on three you had a an epiphany at Burning Man I understand and decided you have to watch those epiph burning not necessarily what you should pursue um and you came up with the idea um yeah it's it's uh well um you know solar is kind of part of the whole sustainable energy thing so sustainable energy you have to have sustainable means of of producing and consuming uh energy and so even if you have electric cars you have to have the other side of the equation say

how do you produce energy in a sustainable way way um and I think solar is the obvious primary means of sustainable energy generation u in fact the Earth is almost entirely solar power today um the the uh the only reason we're not a frozen ice ball at sort of 3° Calvin is because of the Sun and and the Sun is responsible for all precipitation it's it's responsible for the vast majority of the ecosystem apart from sort of chatres the bottom of the ocean so uh the the there's just a tiny amount of energy that people that people consume to to power civilization it's actually a very tiny amount of energy relative to the amount of energy that the sun sends in our general direction um and so in order to deal with that we couldn't in fact power the entire world

with solar power quite easily this is maybe not super obvious to people B so was that the Epiphany you had at Burning Man was it a vision no I knew that long long I knew that in college but what what was the the key Vision that came to you at Burning Man we all want to imagine you there Vision um the uh no it was it was more um the the uh I wouldn't say it was a a particular Epiphany it was more that I was at Burning Man with um with with my cousins or to my cousins uh ly Lyon and Peter Lyon and Peter R uh who are awesome guys and they and and they were sort of trying to think what should they do after their um after their first startup so they did company called everdream which did um large scale management of of computers so if you've got like 60,000

computers it's kind of hard to manage them so they wrote this they create a software that enables people companies to do that um and that company actually got sold to Dell uh um so they were looking for a new Venture and looking for your ideas well I would initially looking for my ideas but I actually was trying to convince them that they should do solo um uh and uh because I just thought I just thought it was an area that needed people like them uh who really good good entrepreneurs so uh and and since I was like somewhat overcommitted I thought to say the least yeah uh I thought well and and I said like look if if you guys will will do a solo company I'll I'll find you you know F all the funding and um you know whatever guidance I can or help I can

provide uh i' do that that's and I thought it was really important that there be uh you know good entrepreneurs like them in in Sol solar because just wasn't wasn't doing very well as an industry so um and I thought people were kind of focusing on not the they weren't focusing on the right problem um the everybody sort of thought that the uh the panel was the problem but actually it's it's not it's it's a problem but it's not it's not the it's not the most important problem um the and and the panel is somewhat commoditized at this point so it's you know making standard efficiency solar panels is about as hard as making drywall it's really easy in fact i' say drywall is probably harder um and um but but what what is a thorny problem is trying to figure

out how to get um solar on tens of thousands eventually hundreds of thousands of rooftops right the logistics part yeah it's it's kind of like you got to re-roof um millions of buildings right um and and then figure out how the grid interconnects work and then manage all those systems like so if You' got hundreds of thousands or maybe millions of systems eventually you've got to manage all these distributed systems you have this really complex distributed utility effectively um which I think actually plays to two their strengths in creating their price strength in creating uh really scalable software for managing you know hundreds of thousands of computers um in a distributed fashion right um and uh and that's that's kind of what they did and did an awesome

job it was just like I basically would show up at the board meetings to hear what's the good news this time you know it's like really you know we had like maybe a couple of bad news board meetings well late 2008 there were some bad news board board meetings but um for the most part apart from a few a few times when the macroeconomic conditions were really terrible um they just did an amazing job with you know almost no help from me so you've been able to leave it in their good hands yeah it's uh they deserve the vast majority of the credit for for the success of that company awesome so I'd like to move on to Innovation and motivation there's been a lot of talk lately about the fact that Innovation is leveling off we're not making the dramatic increases

or improvements in Innovation like we did when the plane was invented do you do you agree with that and uh no I don't agree with that I don't think that's true um okay uh I think we've we've seen well and I'm not sure what time period that is exactly but we've seen um huge improvements in um the in the internet and new new things uh I mean in you even in recent years Twitter and Facebook being being pretty huge when people kind of thought the internet was done MH um and uh you know I think there there are some of the things that we're doing like you know electric cars or or a new thing uh and uh uh I I I do think there's there's a pretty significant break through I mean in genomics um we're getting better and better at decoding genomes and and being able

to write genetics I think that's going to be a huge huge area I think there's likely to be some breakthroughs in artificial intelligence um and um I suspect we will even see the flying car all right is that is that going to be an El on musk production no you're going to let someone else do that uh yeah I well I think someone else I think someone else is doing that all right okay that's another conversation do you feel uh the government is standing in the way of innovation at all well sometimes um the government I I don't think the government tends to stand the way Innovation but sometimes it can overregulation becomes very difficult um I mean in the the order industry used to be a great hot bed of innovation at the beginning of the 20th century but uh

but now there's so many regulations that are intended to protect consumers um I mean the body of regulation for cars could like full you know this room it's just crazy how much uh regulation there is down to like what the T the head lamps are supposed to be like and the they even specify the some of the elements of the user interface on the dashboard which and some of these are completely anachronistic um because they're they're relating back to the days when you had like a little light that would illuminate an image um so like we have to reserve space on the instrument panel the model S for where all of the the indicators like that a car would have you know you got like these little lights like check engine or whatever yeah like all these little little

things there's like a whole bunch of them and we can't have anything else in that space like uh well how would it create one space and render a different graphic like oh no because people are expecting to see it in that space like nobody is expecting to see it in that [Music] space yeah so you feel you can't argue with these regulations you just have to well you can argue with them but not with great success uh and and you you can actually get these things changed but it takes ages um like one of the things we're trying to get is like like why should you have side mirrors if you can have say little video cameras tiny video cameras and have them you know display an image inside the car um but there are all these regulations saying you have to have side

mirrors and I went and met with the secretary of Transport like can you change this regulation still nothing has happened that was like two years ago um you know so your head against a wall here a little bit it's not easy to get these regulations changed so talking of government uh President Obama is obviously trying to do what he can if you had five minutes with President Obama what would you advise him for one stimulating the economy and an entrepreneurship and creating jobs is there one thing that if he could successfully get through that would be a big stimulus do you think well I think actually um I I think the reality of being president is that you're actually like the captain of a very huge ship and have a small Rudder um because because obviously

if I mean if there was a button that a president could push that said economic Prosperity you'd be like they're hitting that button real fast full steam ahead you measure the speed of light by how fast they me they press that button because that would be that's called like the re-election button um so so so I'm not sure how much the president can really do but um but I think I think uh uh you know I'm I'm generally a fan of like minimal government interference in the economy um like the government should be kind of a like the referee but not the player um and there shouldn't be too many referees um but but um there is an exception which is when there's uh an unpriced externality um such as the CO2 capacity of the oceans in atmosphere so when you have

an unpriced externality then the normal Market mechanisms do not work and then government is government's role to to intervene in a in a way that's sensible um and the best way to intervene is to is to put is to assign a proper price to whatever the the common good is that's being consumed um and then and then so you're saying there should be a tax on gas there should be a tax on carbon you know if if the bad thing is uh carbon accumulation in the atmosphere then then needs to be attacks on on that um and then we can that will and then you get rid of all subsidies and all everything else um and it seems like logical that you should tax things that that are most likely to be bad rather than you know like like that's why we tax cigarettes and alcohol um

because those those are probably bad for you um certainly cigarettes are um and um so so uh you so so you want to ER on the side of taxing things that are probably bad and and not tax things that are that are good um and so I think given that there is a need to gather tax for the um you know to pay for the federal government we should shift the tax bur to to bad things and then adjust that that tax of that bad thing according to whatever is going to result in in the behavior that we think is beneficial for the future I mean I I think currently that you know what we're doing right now which is Mining and burning trillions of tons of hydrocarbons that that used to be buried very deep underground and now we're sticking them in the atmosphere and running

this crazy chemical experiment on the atmosphere um and then you've got the oil and gas companies which have ungodly amounts of money um and you can't expect them to just roll over and die like they don't do that um so actually what they much prefer to do is spend enormous amounts of money lobbying and running bogus ad campaigns and that kind of thing to preserve their their situation um you know it's a lot it's a lot like uh tobacco companies in the old days I mean they used to run these ads with doctors like well guy with a doctor you know a pretending he's a doctor uh you know essentially implying that smoking is good for you and like having pregnant mothers on ad smoking um do you have a message for the climate change Skeptics and and the the Big

Oil people well as far as climate change skeptic I me like I'm you know I like to I believe in the scientific method and one should be one should have a healthy skepticism of things in general and you know as if if you're first things from a scientific standpoint you always look at things probabilistically not definitively and so I think a lot lot of times if somebody's a skeptic in the science Community what they're really saying is that they're not sure that it's 100% certain that that this is the case but that's that's that's not the point the point point is um that is is is is look it from the other side see what what do you think the percentage chance is of of this being catastrophic for some meaningful percentage of the Earth's population um is

it greater than 1% is it even 1% um if it is even 1% why are we running this experiment right you called it a Russian Roulette we're playing Russian roulette with the atmosphere we're playing Russian roulette and then and and as each year goes by we're loading more rounds in the chamber it's not it's not wise um so so that's and and and what makes it super insane is that we're going to run out of oil anyway like it's not like there some infinite oil supply we're going to run out of it so we know we have to get to a sustainable means of of of Transportation no matter what so why even run the experiment right it's the world's dumbest experiment right yeah [Applause] so let's move on to focus on Silicon Valley Steve Jobs is was and is a wonderful Silicon

Valley icon is he someone that you've admired and what have you learned from Steve's life and work U well he's certainly someone i' I've admired um although I did try to talk to him once at a party and it was super rude to me uh but I don't think it was me I think it was sort of you know po the course I think you weren't the first yeah not the first no it was um but but uh yeah and I was actually there with like Larry Page is an old friend of mine I've known Larry since before he got Venture funding for Google and Larry was the guy that introduced me to Steve jop so it's not as like I'm I'm going like and tugging on his coat like you know please talk to me um but you know so was introduced by Larry pig is not bad so um but uh I mean he obviously he was

an incredible guy and made fantastic products uh that that um you know and I know there was like a a certain um the guy had a certain magic about him you know to sort of that was kind of that was really inspiring so I mean I think that's that's really great is there is there that magic that you try and emulate uh no I I think Steve Jobs is way cooler than than I am so oh okay so I'd like to get inside your head a little bit about you know when you come up with an idea do you doodle it you know on a pad of paper or do you get your iPad out and and take notes I mean when you come up with something new you know a new rocket design or whatever it is how does that manifest itself could we see you being creative um I mean it's somewhat cliched but it's it happens

a lot in the shower um I don't know what it is about showers or yeah exactly get the camera um like y um no I'm just no I do I just kind of stand there in the shower um so you have long showers I do actually long showers sounds wrong um but yeah I do um and so there's not to mention the Burning Man epiphanies um right that those are those are huge um so yeah I think that's uh yeah and and and then um there there are sometimes like late at night uh if I've been thinking about something then I can't sleep and I'll be up for you know for several hours um thinking about sort of pacing around the house and thinking about things and um occasionally I'll I'll sketch something or send myself an email or something like that right so we have a question from the

audience um who inspires you or do you have a mentor um well um I I don't have a mantro per se although I try to I try to get feedback from as many people as possible um and um so I have I have like friends and I ask them to you know what they think of this that that and the other thing and um you know as mentioned you know lar Larry's a good Larry p is a good friend of mine value his advice a lot um and um have many other good friends and uh so so I think it's good to feedback in particularly negative feedback actually because you know obviously people aren't don't love the idea of giving you negative feedback um unless unless it's like some you know on on on blogs they they do that um yeah how do you deal with negative feedback because you got some

tough um criticism especially with SpaceX you had incumbents like Neil Armstrong even U speaking out and saying this is wrong we don't want you know commercial companies in space it's not a place for Commerce so how did you deal with that and how do you deal with in general cuz you've had a lot yeah that was kind of troubling uh because uh you know growing up NE is kind of a hero so it's like it kind of sucks to you know back that's a bit of a blow yeah um so yeah but I I think in his case he was somewhat manipulated you know by by other interests so I think he quite knew what he was saying in those in those Congressional hearings so yeah okay and um talk about you know it's one thing to have these wonderful ideas in the shower at Burning Man but there's

another thing to build motivate and retain a team of excellent people can you talk about some tips and some things you've learned that obviously work for you yeah um well I mean if you think about a company a company is is a group of people that are organized to create a product or service that's uh that's what a company is so so in order to um create such a thing you have to convince others to join you in in your effort um and and and so they have to be convinced that that that it's a sensible thing that it's like that there's at least some some good some reasonable chance of success uh and if if there is Success that the reward will be commensurate with the effort involved um and uh you know so so I think that's getting people to to believe in what

you're doing uh and in in you is is is important um so in in the beginning there will be there will be uh few people who who do who believe in you or what you're doing um and uh but then over time as you make progress the the evidence will build and and more more people will believe in in what you're doing so um I think it's a good idea when creating a company to to um to create it to have a demonstration or you know if it's a product to have like a a good markup or if even if if it's software to have good demo Weare or to be able to sketch something so people can really Envision what it's about um think that that's a try to get to that point as soon as possible and then iterate to make it as as real as possible as fast as possible um yeah I if that makes

sense but okay so you're running you're CEO of two companies you're chairman of Solar City talk about time management how on Earth do you do this well do you get any sleep uh sometimes not enough sleep is is really great uh because because if I find if I don't get enough sleep then I'm I'm quite grumpy um I mean obviously I think most people are that way um and and and also um like I try to sort of figure out what's the right amount of sleep because I I found I could have I could drop AOW a certain threshold of sleep and although I'd be awake more hours and I could sustain it I would get less done because um mental acurity would be affected um so I found generally the right number for me is around 6 to six and a half hours on average per night um that's

not too bad yeah right and any other tips on average though any other tips on on just managing to run two companies simultaneously I mean do you do you find I mean I know you're up here Monday Tuesday is it all Tesla when you're up in Silicon Valley and all SpaceX Wednesday Thursday it's having a sort of um having a smartphone is incredibly helpful because that means you can do email during um interstitial periods like if you're in a car you're walking in the bathroom everywhere you can do email practically when you're awake um and uh and so that's really helpful to have email for space and Tesla integrated on on my phone um and then uh and then it's just you have to apply a lot of hours to actual working actually working so the way I generally do it

is I'll be uh working at SpaceX on Monday and then Monday night fly to the Bay Area uh spent Tuesday and Wednesday at the Bara then at at Tesla and then fly back on Wednesday night it's spend Thursday and Friday at SpaceX um in in in the last several months then I would fly back here on a Saturday um and either spend Saturday and Sunday at Tesla uh or spend Saturday at Tesla and Sunday at SpaceX um and and where do the boys fit in you have five Sons um yeah did they tag along with Dad on some of these trips I do drag them along on a lot of things actually um they're remarkably unimpressed by yeah I wish they would be sort of more interested but I mean they're only the twins are are eight and the triplets are six so maybe they'll get more more interested

later but do you see one day grooming one of them or several of them to take over your companies well I I mean I think if if if they're inclined to I mean if they're really interested in working at teslo SpaceX then I you know help them do that um I'm not sure want to necessarily try to insert them into the CEO role at some point you know it's kind of like if if uh if the rest of the team and the board kind of felt that they were the right person then that would be that would be fine but uh I wouldn't want people to feel like I kind of you know installed you know my my kid there um and I don't think that would be good for either the companies or the kid really um uh but but I have I I I was actually at one point over school thought that um you know it's

best to give away kind of like 99% or more of one's assets um kind of like the buffet school ofth and um I'm still mostly of that incline in that direction but after seeing what happened with Ford and GM and Chrysler where GM and chryler went went bankrupt but Ford did not and and Ford seemed to make better long-term choices than than the other two companies and that's in part because of the influence of the Ford family um and I thought well okay there may be some Merit in having some longer term family ownership at least at least a portion of it so it's it acts as a positive influence uh this is still something I'm think about but acting as a positive influence in in the long term so the company kind of does do proper long-term things um and like I'm

you know if look at what happened also in in silic Valley with with HP I I think it's quite quite quite sad um and um and that that that to some degree is because there was um much diminished uh influence by the the the huet and Packard families right um I think they should have prevailed in in in their you know where they were opposed to the the merger that took place at one point and I think they were right actually right and keeping and looking to the Future for SpaceX is there an IPO plan for this year no there's no IPO plan no um let say running a public company does does have its drawback um so you're not in a hurry no okay um I mean in the case of Tesla and SpaceX uh we we had to raise Capital um and and we had kind of a complex Equity structure

that needed to be resolved by by going public um and um and so so I thought we we kind of needed to do that in those two cases we don't have to do that in SpaceX I think think there's a good chance we will at some point in the future but but spacex's objectives are are super longterm and and the market is is not so I'm a bit worried that if we did go public certainly if we're in public too soon that it the that market pressure would would force us to do uh short-term things and abandon kind of long-term projects like going to Mars right going to Mars very longterm yes that's an important one so you do have other projects on the back burner you've talked about the hyperloop uh a way of getting people from downtown LA to downtown San Francisco in under

half an hour an electric supersonic airplane yeah which of those two are bubbling up that we might hear more about in the near future well I I did promise that I'd um do some paper on on the hyperloop idea um and uh things got a little a little hectic towards the end of last year uh because had I had these had committed to to make these milestones at Tesla to to the public markets and um I had to stay true to that obligation um which required just a just an insane level of work and attention um and uh and then we also had the solar City IPO which was a very difficult IPO to to get done I mean that IPO occurred just by the skin of its teeth I mean that was so so such a tough one were you just determined it had to be in December well um if it wasn't in

December it would mean pushing it out you know quite a bit um and uh and the problem is that we' already pushed it out quite a bit so if we didn't go public we'd have to do a private round and then um and it just the whole thing wouldn't feel right you know it's like you're sitting at the it's like you're you're you know at the at the altar and you don't do the do the wedding it's like what a bit awkward you know um to say the least yeah uh so so we really need we really needed to do it um and and uh and I think if we hadn't done it people would have looked at it as a failure and it wouldn't have been good um because there's just been too many failures in the Solar or too many not enough success let's say in the Solar Arena they needed to be sort of we

need to choke up the success in the it's a rare piece of sunshine for the solar year ironically for a solar industry does not have a lot of that yes so it's time unfortunately for the last question you come a long way since you were that six-year-old little boy breaking the rules um you turned 42 this year right what is on the cards where do you where do you see yourself in 10 years time 20 years time 40 years time because you famously said you want to die on Mars just not on impact right exactly tell us about that dream um yeah well actually was asked by journalist do you want to die on Maus and I said yes and I was like but wait not not impact just to be clear that's one of the possibilities um so um yeah so I uh I guess um I I mean I'd like to be able

to go to Mars while I'm still able to manage the journey reasonably well so I think like I don't want to be like 75 and go to Mars you don't want to take your Zimmer frame with you right U you know it it it could be at least in the beginning could be you know mildly uous so um wanted to I'd like to I'd like to get there um I don't know I mean ideally in my 50s that would be that would be kind of cool so you see that happening in the next well I mean I I aspire to make that happen and I I can see the potential for that happening um and um I'm not saying it will happen but I I I I I think it can happen um I'll try to make it happen great ladies and gentlemen Elon Musk thank you very