机器翻译,已尽力保留原意与数字
内容摘要
马斯克在 Tesla 的设计工作室与 BBC 的罗里·塞兰-琼斯谈论电动汽车和自动驾驶的未来。
Musk talks to the BBC's Rory Cellan-Jones about electric cars and the future of autonomous driving at Tesla's design studio.
中文实录Transcript
22 个段落
第 1 段
埃隆·马斯克,他们在这里的愿景是什么,你想对汽车行业做什么?嗯,我正试图加速可持续交通的到来,所以试图让,呃,试图让经济行业比原本更快地转向,嗯,电气化,嗯,所以我认为 Tesla 的根本价值、长期价值,是充当催化剂,加速向可持续交通的转型。为什么是电动汽车,为什么,为什么这很重要?嗯,电动汽车在车辆层面是,嗯,是零排放的,所以它们不会,嗯,产生 CO2、一氧化二氮、硫氧化物,或任何,嗯,算是任何内燃机汽车会产生的有害气体,嗯,所以如果,如果我们能实现可持续能源生产,并将其与
第 2 段
电动汽车结合起来,我们就会拥有一个长期可持续的未来。那进展如何?我是说,你已经取得了很大进展,但你认为10年后我们所有人都会拥有电动汽车吗,还是说它始终只会是少数人的追求?不,我认为,呃,除火箭外,所有交通工具都将完全电动化,嗯,所以这就是为什么,我是说,我把 Tesla 的价值看作那次转型中的一个加速因素、一个催化剂,嗯,我认为 Tesla,也许当人们从历史视角回顾它时,它,它可能会把那次转型加速10年,也许,也许更久。现在,这是一辆很棒的车,开起来令人兴奋,但目前它只属于富人,不是吗?这真的会对大众市场产生任何意义吗?是的,我是说,这,这,这
第 3 段
Tesla 的策略从一开始就是先推出一款低产量、高价格的汽车,那就是我们最初与 Lotus 合作制造的跑车,呃,然后我们有 Model S,它算是一款中等价位、中等产量的 C 车,嗯,而且实际上,当你,当你看 Model S 的价格时,嗯,把汽油成本计算在内,呃,它实际上比你,比你想象的要有竞争力得多。我买不起这种车,我认识的人也没人买得起。嗯,我认为,嗯,呃,它肯定不是,嗯,一款低价汽车,呃,我只是说,如果你租赁或贷款购买这辆车,并将租赁或贷款成本与电动汽车低得多的使用成本进行比较,你每月的交通成本,嗯,会
第 4 段
比乍看之下只看汽车价格时显得更有竞争力。但你是否正在走向生产一款更多人能够,呃,所以 Model 3,呃,是我们策略的第3部分,呃,也就是生产一款高产量、呃、低成本的汽车,而且,呃,我们预计将在明年年底投产。这一切都按计划进行吗?对这款车的抱负是什么?这是不是那款真正会让你一直谈论的这场革命成为现实的车?我毫无疑问,为了,嗯,对交通产生,呃,实质性影响,我们必须让汽车价格可负担,嗯,所以我认为 Model 3 作为该策略的一部分极其重要,嗯,除非有一款价格可负担的汽车,嗯,否则正如你之前提到的,我们将
第 5 段
更早时只能对世界产生很小的影响,所以它,它需要,我们需要制造一款大多数人都买得起的汽车,才能产生,嗯,真正实质性的影响。人们的生活以这种方式发生改变,对你来说有多重要?显然,这对这门生意很重要,因为到目前为止你已经亏了很多钱,你需要一款大众市场汽车,但对于作为思想者的你来说,让人们拥有电动汽车,让,让,让那个可持续愿景成为现实,重要吗?是的,绝对重要,我是说,正如我所说,Tesla 的全部意义就是加速向可持续交通的转型,嗯,如果我们能从一开始就制造一款价格可负担的汽车,我们肯定会那样做,嗯,只是完善技术需要时间。当你想到任何
第 6 段
新技术时,都需要多个版本,嗯,也需要规模经济,才能让这项技术,嗯,普及到普通公众。你可以看看,比如手机,在手机早期,它们非常大、很重,而且非常昂贵,嗯,但通过连续的,呃,设计迭代和扩大生产规模,嗯,我们已经把它推进到这样一个阶段:嗯,只需100美元,你就能买到,嗯,基本上是一台装在口袋里的超级计算机。还要多久大多数人才会拥有电动汽车?这是一个非常长期的愿景,还是很快就会发生?嗯,我认为它会,嗯,比人们想象的更早发生。我的意思是,新技术采用的典型曲线,嗯,它,它是像一条 S 曲线,所以一开始相当缓慢,嗯,而且,呃,一般来说,人们往往会预测,会基于
第 7 段
他们的预测采用直线,而不是曲线拟合,嗯,但是当采用率呈S形曲线时,如果你在那条S形曲线的起点进行直线外推,得出的实际采用率总是会被低估,嗯,所以,嗯,但如果你看看比如Tesla正在做的事,嗯,我们每年都将累计总产量翻倍,所以,嗯,在去年的时候,我们在全球道路上总共有50,000辆汽车,然后去年我们又生产了50,000辆汽车,所以Tesla车辆的车队总规模去年翻了一倍,今年还会大约再翻一倍。与此同时,底特律那些传统汽车制造商似乎已经醒悟过来了,嗯,BMW之类的公司最终不是更有可能把电动汽车带给
第 8 段
大众,而不是Tesla吗?嗯,我会说,如果他们这么做,那当然更好,我的意思是,我当然会鼓励,呃,他们在电动汽车方面采取行动,嗯,而且对于所有,嗯,所有制造商,我希望他们,呃,尽快生产尽可能多的电动汽车,那才是对世界而言正确的事。你认为他们到目前为止的表现如何?底特律和传统汽车行业是否一直在打瞌睡,因而措手不及?嗯,他们,他们并不真正相信电动汽车,他们不认为在技术上有可能制造出一款,一款有吸引力的电动汽车,而且他们觉得,即使,嗯,即使有人真的制造出了续航里程长、性能高的电动汽车,人们也不会愿意购买,因为人们对汽油有某种深沉的热爱,嗯,而且,而且
第 9 段
能够在5分钟内加满燃料至关重要,嗯,所以凭借,凭借Tesla,我们得以证明那些,嗯,被视为公理的错误并不成立,嗯,所以通过那款,那款Tesla Roadster,我们得以证明,事实上可以制造出,呃,一款速度非常快、外形迷人、高性能,嗯、操控出色的电动汽车,嗯,而且如果你制造出这样一款续航里程长的汽车,如果你要是,如果你制造出这样一款汽车,人们就会购买,嗯,所以通过,通过那款,嗯,通过Tesla roader,事实上,那确实促使General Motors去做了Chevy Vault,嗯,也促使Nissan去做了leaf,嗯,所以我们在2007年mid2,嗯,发布了,呃,Tesla rooster,而blah BL,嗯,他已经讲过这个故事很多次了,呃,把,把新闻稿拿给他的工程师看,并说,如果加利福尼亚的一家小公司都能做到,我们为什么不能,嗯
第 10 段
而这正是促使General Motors开展其电动汽车项目的原因,继而也鼓励其他制造商也开展电动汽车项目,嗯,但是,呃,但是那些项目在很大程度上一直,呃,或者我确实会说,除了可能leaf之外,几乎完全都是,嗯,产量相当低,嗯,而且,呃,更、更、更倾向于,嗯,呃,满足监管机构的要求,嗯,嗯,但是,但是现在我认为我们正在看到变化,因为人们看到Tesla能够在一个常规汽车细分市场中卖出相当多,嗯,相当多的电动汽车,在,在,在高端轿车细分市场中,嗯,事实上,去年我们是,是美国我们所在细分市场中最畅销的汽车,所以超过了,你知道,我错过了……超过Mercedes或BMW或
第 11 段
奥迪,在在我们这个领域,总体而言,科技行业突然似乎对进入汽车行业表现出了难以置信的热情。显然,我们已经看到了 Google 及其自动驾驶汽车。你是否认为,呃,这种情况会继续下去?你是否、是否认为 Apple 会造车,而且这可能会对你构成威胁?嗯,嗯,我、我认为我、我、我会鼓励,呃,无论是谁都更多地参与进来,制造电动汽车。嗯,这、这、这很难做到。嗯,但我认为,呃,Apple 这样的公司很可能会造出一款有吸引力的电动汽车。这似乎是显而易见的事。你敢打赌这会发生吗?你听说过什么吗?嗯,如果你雇了超过1000名工程师来做这件事,那就很难把它藏起来。所以你认为 Apple 是认真的?是的,我
第 12 段
确实认为。这是一个公开的秘密。那会对你构成威胁,还是只会扩大这个行业?我、我认为,我的意思是,我认为这会扩大这个行业。嗯,Tesla 当然仍会立志制造最具吸引力的电动汽车,那将是我们的目标。嗯,与此同时,我们也努力帮助其他公司制造电动汽车。嗯,所以,例如去年,我们把所有专利都开源了,因此任何人都可以免费使用我们的任何专利。在通往自动驾驶汽车的道路上,你们也是自动驾驶领域的领导者。你认为它能发展到什么程度?我的意思是,我认为交通领域最大的2场革命是电动化和自主化。那、那些是,而且这是,你,那些是自移动生产以来最大的2项创新
第 13 段
生产线,而且它们大约会在同一时间发生,嗯,我认为自动驾驶极其重要,嗯,而且我认为从长远来看,除非汽车能够自动驾驶,否则没人会买车,那就会像拥有一部手动操作的,呃,电梯之类的东西,所以这是一种奇怪的激动作用,10年后我会开什么车,或者我到底还会不会开车,我是不是只要在应用程序上按一个按钮,呃,一辆车就会开过来,然后带我去我想去的地方,是的,你会,你只会在你想开车的时候开车,嗯,从长远来看,拥有一辆不能自动驾驶的汽车,嗯,会像拥有一匹马,你会因为感情原因而拥有它并使用它,但不会用于,你知道,不会真正用于日常使用,不太可能,现在你,呃,已经表现出
第 14 段
对人工智能的浓厚兴趣,呃,H,这正在成为一辆人工智能汽车,好吧,我会说是狭义的,狭义人工智能,嗯,你也表达过对它将走向何方的担忧,那是不是因为你看过那辆车能做什么,然后想到,如果它形成了自己的思想会怎样,为什么,为什么你会担……我们不需要担心汽车,这辆车,这个是,我是说,汽车,一辆汽车不是深度人工智能,它是一个狭窄的用例,嗯,你知道,我们并不是试图在汽车中构建感知能力,嗯,它只是试图观察道路上的线条并正确转向,嗯,而且我认为这基本上是一个已经解决的问题,嗯,现在只需要,嗯,完善这项技术的细节,并把它
第 15 段
推向市场,嗯,然后提高,嗯,可靠性的多个9,所以,嗯,为了拥有一辆自动驾驶汽车,你确实必须有许多个9的可靠性,所以它是99.
第 16 段
9999%,类似这样,这、这、这就是它需要达到的水平,嗯,或者,你知道,如果比方说作为第一近似,嗯,你会希望自动驾驶汽车比人类驾驶的汽车安全一个数量级,而如果、如果、如果你说,好吧,它安全10倍,那就像是再也没有疑问,再也没有关于哪一个更安全的争论,嗯,但它、它仍然是一个狭窄的使用场景,嗯,汽、汽车不会发展出,呃,意识,嗯,也不会决定它们想接管世界之类的,嗯,我认为我们真正需要更加担心的是,呃,D,是的,而我们为什么需要担心那个呢,好吧,我是说,因为我认为存在一些情景,嗯,如果有某种庞大的智能,嗯,呃,要么形成了自己的意志
第 17 段
要么受制于少数人的意志,嗯,那么我们可能会迎来一个不理想的未来,如果你想读一个真正吓人的故事,我会说,呃,呃,哈伦·埃里森的《我没有嘴,但我必须尖叫》会让你做噩梦,你读很多科幻小说,它目前正让你做噩梦吗,这个,它确实让我做过噩梦,是的,而你是真的,什么,当你,你一直是AI方面的主要推动者之一,我去年采访了史蒂文·霍金,对吧,他有类似的担忧,嗯,这是一个、一个短期担忧,还是遥远到我们很长时间都不必担心的事情,它会比任何人意识到的更快到来,我认为随着、随着每一年过去,计算机智能的复杂程度都在、在急剧增长
第 18 段
我、我是说,我真的认为人工智能正处于一条指数式,呃,改进路径上,而、而开发AI的聪明人的数量也在急剧增加,我是说,如果你看看,比如,嗯,AI会议的出席人数,它们、它们每年都翻倍,嗯,它们坐满了,嗯,我有一个、一个算是我的年轻表亲,他正从伯克利毕业,嗯,学的是计算机科学和物理学,而我问他,比如,好吧,计算机科学领域那些聪明、聪明的学生中有多少人在研究AI,答案是现在他们全都在研究,你身处3个非凡的行业,你从事电动汽车,你从事,呃,火箭,而且你从事,呃,太阳能,是什么把你联系起来,呃,是什么把那、那3种兴趣联系起来,好吧,我正在努力
第 19 段
做的是,嗯,嗯,尽量减少,呃,存在的未来生存威胁,或者采取我能采取的任何行动来确保未来是美好的,嗯,我没想到这些公司会成功,呃,我认为它们最有可能失败,呃,尤其是Tesla和Facex,我认为Sol City成功的概率更高,嗯,但是,嗯,我一开始认为SpaceX和Tesla可能有10%的成功机会,嗯,所以我真的很惊讶,看到它们没有,我们还活着,嗯,这很棒,我没料到,而你现在是否更有信心,它们每一家都会成功,我、我、我确实觉得,仿佛它们已经达到了,嗯,一个进展水平,使它们不太可能,它们将不太可能在短期内消亡,嗯,Tesla和SpaceX都拥有
第 20 段
大量客户,嗯,算是真正建立起来了,赢得了大量客户的信任,而且,嗯,而这些是真正稳固的组织,或者、或者像是真的,你知道,我认为是对汽车深思熟虑的终端客户,而且,嗯,我、而且我认为,比如,只要你的客户真的希望你成功,那么你、那么你、你最终就会成功。呃,你显然是一个非常有竞争心的人,你在,呃,火箭领域与杰夫·贝索斯之类的人竞争,杰夫谁,你在汽车行业与底特律竞争,当谈到Solar City时,你在与监管者竞争,呃,是什么驱动着你,只是因为我是对的,而他们全都错了吗,嗯,不,我是说,我、我实际上真的持这样的立场:我在某种程度上永远是错的,嗯,而愿望是少错一点,我们总是
第 21 段
在某种程度上都是错的,不管你是谁都无所谓,嗯,而且我认为,努力随着时间的推移尽量减少,嗯,错误的想法,这就是我所信奉的哲学,嗯,而且,嗯,我是说,我我我认为这些,有些事情对未来很重要,显然是可持续能源、可持续交通,嗯,最终,最终成为一个多行星物种,并且,嗯,前往外太空,在群星之间遨游。我认为那些是,那些是很棒的事情,那些是让我喜欢未来和或对未来感到振奋的事情,嗯,而如果那些事情没有发生,我认为未来看起来会相当黯淡,嗯,而且,嗯,我我只是觉得相当幸运,我们在那些方面已经取得了现有的进展,而且我们将努力在未来取得更多进展。
第 22 段
你不知道
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Elon Musk what's their Vision here what are you trying to do to the car industry well I'm trying to accelerate the Advent of sustainable transport so try to get uh try to get the econ industry to move towards um electrification um faster than they would otherwise move so the the the fundamental value long-term value that I see for Tesla is serving as a catalyst to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport why electric cars what why why is that important well electric car is um are zero emission at the car level so they're not um producing CO2 or nitrous oxide or sulfur oxides or any of the um sort of the noxious gases that uh any kind of combustion engine car would produce um and so if if we can have sustainable energy production and combine
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that with electric cars we have a long-term sustainable future and how how's that going I mean you've made made a deal of progress but do you see us all having electric cars in 10 years time or is it going to be always a minority Pursuit no I think uh All Transport with the exception of rockets will go fully electric um so that's why I mean I see the the value of of Tesla um as an as an accelerant as a catalyst in that transition um I think Tesla maybe when one looks back on it from an historical perspective it it might accelerate that transition by a decade maybe maybe more now this is a a great car it's an exciting drive but at the moment it's just for the rich isn't it is this really going to mean anything for the mass Market yeah I mean the the the
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Tesla strategy from the beginning has been to start off with a low volume high- price car that was the sports car that we first uh did in partnership with lotus um and then we have the model S which is kind of a mid-priced mid volume C car um and and actually when you when you look at the the price of the model S um inclusive of the cost of petrol uh it it actually is a lot more competitive than it would than you'd think I'm not going to be able to afford one of these and nobody I know is um well I think um uh it's it's certainly not um a low pric car U I'm just saying that if you were to lease or Finance the car and compare the the lease or Finance cost with a much lower cost of operation of an electric car your monthly cost of Transport um is a lot
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more competitive than it may seem at first glance just looking at the price of the car but are you on the road to producing a model that far more people could uh so the the model 3 uh that's the third part of our strategy uh which is produce a high volume uh lowcost car and uh we expect to be in production with that at the end of next year is that all on schedule and what what are the Ambitions for that car is is that the one that will really make this revolution that you've been talking about happen I no question in in order to um have a a substantial effect on on transportation we have to make the cars affordable um so I think the model 3 is extremely important as part of that strategy um unless there's an affordable car um we will as you alluded to
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earlier only have a small impact on the world so it it needs we need to make a car that most people can afford in order to have um a really substantial impact how important is it for you that people's lives are changed in this way obviously it's important for this business because you've lost a lot of money so far you need to have a mass market car but is it important for you uh as a thinker that that people have electric cars that that that sustainable Vision comes true yeah absolutely mean the like I said the whole point of Tesla is to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport um if we could have made an affordable car right off the the bat we definitely would have um it's just that it takes time to refine the technology when you think of any
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new technology it takes multiple versions um and economies of scale in order to make the technology um accessible to the general public you can look at say cell phones when the early days of cell phones they were very big and heavy and very expensive um but with successive uh design iterations and scaling up the production um we've brought it to the point where um for $100 you can buy um basically a supercomputer in your pocket how soon will most people have an electric car is this a very long-term Vision or is it going to happen soon well I think it's going to happen um sooner than people think I mean the typical curve of new technology adoption um it it's is like an S curve so it starts off quite slow um and uh generally people tend to predict to base
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their predictions on a straight line as opposed to a curve fit um and but when you have an an S curve of adoption if you make a straight line extrapolation at the beginning of that S curve it's always going to underestimate the actual adoption rate um so um but if you look at say what Tesla is doing um every year we are doubling our total cumulative production so um at the of last year we had 50,000 cars in total on the roads worldwide and then last year we produced another 50,000 cars so the total Fleet of Tesla vehicles doubled last year it will approximately double again this year meanwhile Detroit the traditional motor makers seem to have woken up um is is it not true that the likes of BMW are eventually more likely to bring electric vehicles to the
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masses than Tesla well I say say more power to them if they I mean I would certainly encourage uh their actions on electric vehicles um and and for all um all manufacturers I hope they uh produce as many electric vehicles as soon as possible that's the the right thing for the world what do you think their record has been like so far has has has Detroit and the traditional motor industry been caught napping well they they didn't really believe in electric cars they didn't think that it was technologically possible to create a a compelling electric car and they felt that even if um even if someone did create an electric car with long range and high performance that people wouldn't want to buy it because they have some deep love of gasoline um and and that
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it's vital to be able to refuel in 5 minutes um so with with Tesla we were able to disprove those um axiomatic errors um so with the the Tesla Roadster we're able to show that you can in fact create uh a very fast attractive high performance um great handling electric car um and that if you made such a car with with long range and if you were if you make such a car people would buy it um so with with the um with the Tesla roader in fact the that's really what got General Motors to do the Chevy Vault um and Nissan to do the leaf um so we we announced the uh Tesla rooster in mid2 2007 um and blah BL um he's told the story many times uh took the took out press release to his engineers and said if a little company in California can do this why can't we um
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and that's what got General Motors to do their electric vehicle program which in turn encouraged the other manufacturers to do through electric vehicle programs as well um but uh but those programs for the most part have been uh or really I'd say almost entirely with the exception of maybe the leaf um have been of quite low volume um and uh more more more inclined towards um uh satisfying Regulators um um but but now I think we are seeing a change because people are seeing that Tesla is able to sell quite a few um quite a few electric cars in a normal car segment in in in the premium sedan segment um in in fact we were the the bestselling car in the in our segments in the United States last year so more than you know I miss more than Mercedes or BMW or
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Audi in in our segment the technology industry generally suddenly seems incredibly enthusiastic about getting into the motor industry we've obviously had Google with it self-driving car do you see uh that continuing and do you do you see apple building a car and that maybe being a threat to you well um I I think I I I would encourage uh more participation um by whoever it is to create electric vehicles um it it's it's quite hard to do um but I think uh companies like apple will probably make a compelling electric car it seems like the obvious thing to do are you betting that that's going to happen have you heard anything well it's pretty hard to hide something if you hire over a thousand Engineers to do it so you think apple is serious about it yeah I
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do this is an Open Secret and will that be a threat to you or will that just expand the industry I I think that I mean I think it will expand the industry um certainly Tesla would aspire to still make the most compelling electric vehicles and that would be our goal um while at the same time trying to help other companies make electric cars as well um so for example last year we open sourced all of our patents so anyone can use any of our patents for free you've also been a leader in autonomous driving in this road to the self-driving car how far do you think that's going to go I mean I think the two biggest Revolutions in transport are electrification and autonomy th those are the and it's you those are the two biggest Innovations since the moving production
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line and they're both happening at about the same time um I think autonomy is extremely important um and I think in the long term nobody will buy a car unless it is autonomous it would be like having a manually operated uh elevator or something like that so it's a strange agonism in 10 years time what will I be driving or will I be driving at all will I just be pressing a button on an app uh a car will drive up and and take me where I want it yeah you will you will only drive if you you want to drive um it'll be like owning a owning a car that is not self-driving in in the long term um will be like owning a horse you would own it for and you would use it for sentimental reasons but not for you know not for daily use really unlikely now you uh you've taken
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a lot of interest in artificial intelligence uh H this is becoming an artificially intelligent car well I would quote narrowly narrow artificial intelligence um you've also expressed concern about where that's heading is that because you've looked at what that car can do and have thought what happens if it develops a mind of its own why why are you wor we don't need to be concerned about the cars the car this is I mean car a car is not deep AI it's a it's a narrow use case um you know we're not trying to build sentients into the car um it's just trying to look at the lines on the road and steer correct um and I would consider that to be essentially a solved problem um it's just a question of um refining the details of the technology and bringing that
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to Market um and then improving um the nines of reliability so um in order to have a self-driving car you really have to have many nines of reliability so it's 99.
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9999% something like that is is is how good it needs to be um or you know if let's say to First approximation um you would want a self-driving car to be in order of magnitude uh safer than a human driven car and if if if you're like okay it's 10 times safer than it's like there's no more doubt there's no more debate um about which one is safer um but it's it's still a narrow use case um the the cars not going to develop uh Consciousness um or decide that they want to take over the world or something like that um I think we really need to be more concerned about uh D yeah and why do we need to be concerned about that well I mean because there are I think scenarios where um if there's some vast intelligence that um uh either develops the will of its own
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or is subject to the will of a small number of people um then we could have an undesirable future if you want to read a real scary one I'd say uh uh Haren Ellison's I have no mouth and I must scream we'll give you nightmares you read a lot of Science Fiction is it giving you nightmares at the moment this it has given me nightmares yeah and are you genuinely what when you you've been one of the Prime movers about AI I interviewed Steven Hawking last year right had similar concerns um is that a a short-term concern or is it something way off that we don't need to worry about for a long time it's going to come faster than anyone appreciates I think it's with with each passing year the sophistication of of computer intelligence is is growing dramatically
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I I mean I really think we're on an exponential uh Improvement path of um artificial intelligence and and the number of smart humans that are developing AI is also increasing dramatically I mean if you look at like the attendance at the um AI conferences they're they're doubling every year um they're getting full um I have a a sort of a young cousin of mine who's graduating from Berkeley um in computer science and physics and I asked him like well how many of the smart smart students are studying AI in computer science and the answer is all of them now you're in three extraordinary Industries you're in electric cars you're in uh Rockets uh and you're in uh solar energy what unites you uh what unites those those three interests well the what I'm trying
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to do is to um um minimize uh existent future existential threats or to take whatever action I can to ensure the future is good um I didn't expect these companies to succeed uh I thought they would most likely fail uh particularly Tesla and facex I thought Sol City had a higher probability of success um but um I in the beginning I thought SpaceX and Tesla maybe had a 10% chance of success um and so I'm quite surprised really to see that they're not that we're alive um it's great I wasn't expecting that and are you now more confident that they each of them will be a success I I I do feel it's though they've reached um a level of progress that makes it unlikely that they will unlikely that will they will die in the near term um both Tesla and SpaceX have
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a lot of customers um sort of built really earn the trust of a large number of customers and um and these are really solid organization or or like really you know I think thoughtful end customers for the car and um I and I think like whenever your customers really want you to succeed then you then you you will succeed finally uh you're obviously a very competitive person you're competing with the likes of Jeff Bezos uh in uh Jeff who in rocket you're competing with Detroit in the motor industry you're competing with regulator when ites to Solar City uh what drives you is it just I am right and they're all wrong um well no I mean I I actually really take the position that I'm always to some degree wrong um and the aspiration is to be less wrong we're always
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to some degree wrong all it doesn't matter who you are um and I think Trying to minimize um the wrongheadedness over time is that I believe in that philosophy um and um and I mean I I I think these there's some things that are important for the future sustainable energy obviously sustainable transport um ultimately ultimately becoming a multi-planet species and um and traveling out there Among the Stars I think those are those are great things those are things that make me like the future and or be inspired about the future um whereas if those things don't happen the future I think looks quite dim um and um and I I just feel quite fortunate that we've made the progress that we have on on those fronts and we'll aspire to make more progress in the future
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you don't know