机器翻译,已尽力保留原意与数字
内容摘要
投资者罗恩·巴伦在第29届Baron投资年会上就Tesla、时间管理、Twitter和太空采访马斯克。
Investor Ron Baron interviews Musk at the 29th Annual Baron Investment Conference on Tesla, time management, Twitter and space.
中文实录Transcript
65 个段落
第 1 段
今晚[音乐]我无敌了[音乐]你知道,有一些美国英雄不喜欢这个想法,尼尔·阿姆斯特朗和吉恩·塞尔南都作证反对你正在开发的这种商业太空飞行,我想知道你对此怎么看。看到这个我非常难过,因为那些人是,是啊,你知道,那些人是我的英雄,所以这真的很难受。当你遭遇连续第3次失败时,你有没有想过我得把这事收起来了?从来没有。为什么没有?我永不放弃。[音乐]你好,你知道,我告诉你一件事,每次看到那段视频,我都会不寒而栗,每一次都是,而且我经常看,所以非常感谢你来到这里,我知道这并不方便,也不是就在街角,我真的非常感激。绝对的,我想,谢谢你邀请我。
第 2 段
嗯,我坐的是红眼航班,所以我,我今天比平时反应慢一点,我没怎么睡,所以你知道,那,呃,那算是我的第1个问题,就是这个,所以你51岁。是的。不年轻了。我想我可以确定自己已经不再年轻了。我希望算是一只夏末的鸡。我79岁。
第 3 段
是的,但只是想,我是说,你看起来很棒,所以你51岁,而且,呃,而且你每天工作16小时,每周工作7小时,你飞往各地,不停参加这些会议,而且人们不断为每件事批评你,我觉得不可思议。我是说,你正在改变世界,而你在付出自己,为什么要这么做?所以我的妻子对我说,你为什么还在工作?为什么还在工作?你在这里做什么?嗯,我认为,嗯,我所从事的工作对未来有重要的,呃,有重要影响。嗯,你知道,就Tesla而言,我认为可以公平地说,Tesla已经显著地、大幅加速了可持续能源时代的到来。你知道,在Tesla之前,没有人在制造电动汽车,而现在由于Tesla
第 4 段
我认为,世界上几乎每一家大型汽车公司都已经,嗯,正在,都在制造电动汽车,而且,呃,我认为那,那是一件相当重大的事。嗯,但要让世界转型为可持续能源经济,仍有很长的路要走,所以,所以,所以Tesla还有很多工作摆在我们面前,但那就是我们在那里的目标。然后对于SpaceX,我认为,对于未来,对于让未来令人振奋,并让人类的,嗯,存在得到长期保障,这很重要。我认为我们必须成为一个多行星物种和一个航天文明。嗯,你知道,我认为,嗯,我们是在地球、地球诞生大约45亿年后来到这里的,宇宙年龄已经有13.
第 5 段
80亿年,而直到最近的5000年里,我们才甚至,我们发明了文字。我会以我们首次出现文字的时间来确定第1个文明的年代,那是,嗯,大约5000或6000年前的古代撒马利亚。所以我们基本上只在这里存在了极其短暂的一瞬间,一次眨眼,整个人类文明只是眨眼之间,如果在进化时间尺度上存在一只眼睛的话。所以,所以我认为,重要的是我们采取行动,确保意识之光延续下去,因为你应该,我们应该真正把意识视为无边黑暗中的一支小蜡烛。所以它很容易熄灭。所以你,所以我们有这些使命,呃,而不知为何,只要你有一个使命,而且你
第 6 段
拥有这种愿景,而你是一位有远见的人,不知为何,无论你做什么,你都会发展出其他业务。所以当你创办SpaceX时,你没有想到卫星;当你创办Tesla时,你没有想到机器人;当你没有足够的人时,你没有想到机器人,呃,而且,呃,所以,所以你没有想到自动驾驶。而且如果没有埃隆,就不会有电动汽车。没有哪个造车的人想制造电动汽车,他们是被迫制造的。事实上,每当他们卖出1辆电动汽车,就少卖出1辆能让他们赚钱的汽车,而且他们已经把所有那些钱投入到制造其他汽车的计划中。所以除了他之外,没有人想要这些汽车,而每个人都认为这会失败。所以,呃,所以其中一件事
第 7 段
她说的是,专利是给这一周的,而你把专利分享给其他公司,当然,另一方面,当他们拿到你的专利时,你已经领先他们2年或3年了。嗯,我是说,开玩笑说专利是给这一周的,我认为专利确实有它的作用。嗯,你知道,比如说,如果有人花费了,如果某家公司花了很多钱开发某种特定药物,并且不得不承担,呃,你知道,3期医学试验的费用,然后他们,然后他们终于得到了一种获批的东西,但,但是药物本身的制造成本很低,那么我认为在这种情况下,专利是合理的,否则没有人会费心进行3期医学试验。嗯,所以专利肯定有它的作用。嗯,在
第 8 段
Tesla的情况下,你知道,我们的目标是推进可持续能源,所以,而且我们不可能只凭自己做到这一点,我们需要整个行业都朝那个方向发展,因此我们免费向他们提供了我们的专利,以帮助他们加速发展电动汽车。所以,其他公司意识到,当女性,我们制造汽车时,这辆车的成本是39000美元,而每辆车能为我们带来15000美元、16000美元的利润,这一定令它们感到恐惧。因此我们投资70亿美元,每年赚150亿美元,呃,抱歉,是的,按15的比率,1500万辆汽车,15000,1年1500万,以及700万美元的投资购物。所以没有其他人这么做,而当我们,而且你在这里告诉我们,你希望制造每辆20000
第 9 段
美元的汽车,你怎么做到?嗯,我们尚未正式公布,嗯,我们的下一个汽车项目,所以我不能过多谈论我们尚未公布的即将推出的汽车项目或多个项目,但我们确实预计会制造比当前的Model 3或Model Y更实惠的汽车。所以其中一个重要因素是,是的[掌声]但我认为,到目前为止最大的因素是自动驾驶,以及一辆汽车的价值,因为现在汽车每周大约只行驶10或12小时,比如每天大约1.5小时,而且,嗯,所以,但1周有168小时,因此如果它们实现自动驾驶,你大概可以开,这些汽车可以行驶50或60小时。所以你会看到能够自动驾驶的汽车,其效用提高5倍。你知道,这是
第 10 段
一件真的、真的极其重大的事。这也意味着我们远远不需要那么多停车场,而且这也会有益于环境,因为你需要的汽车会少得多。所以,呃,我说错了,那是对一家每年制造100万辆汽车、每年产生150亿美元利润的工厂投资70亿美元。他们投资70亿,而你每年赚150亿美元。谁能做到这一点?而且是一个制造,你知道,东西,呃,进行生产制造的计划。所以,实现这一点的方式是,所以你现在通过铸造来做,而且铸造汽车的一半,很快还将铸造汽车的另一半。那么其他公司为什么不尝试?为什么不尝试做我们正在做的事?事实上,另一家汽车公司的一位
第 11 段
其他汽车公司的高管,呃,希望我把她介绍给你,而你曾经在一次会议中这样做了,现在她想和她的工程总监一起来参观,这是我们在奥斯汀的工厂,而我猜我问你时,你会说,是啊,带她来吧,因为你创新得太快,等任何人复制我们正在做的事情时,我们已经转向其他事情了。还有什么?怎么,当你进行铸造时,还有什么使我们能够制造更便宜的,我们正在去掉很多其他零件吗?我们在去掉功能吗?我们在做什么,才得以做到那样,怎样才能卖出如此便宜的汽车?我,我是说,我认为完整的解释,或者至少准确的解释,会花很长时间。嗯,因为粗略地说,一辆汽车由10
第 12 段
000个独特零件和工艺步骤组成,而且我们已经,我是说,我认为在目前这个阶段,Tesla确实大概是汽车行业中最擅长制造的公司,我想没人预料到这一点,可能也是世界历史上最擅长的,大概是。嗯,是的,所以,嗯,好吧,我有这样一套第一性原理算法,我发现它在,和任何,在任何东西的设计和制造中都非常有帮助。嗯,在场的人可能会觉得它有用。你应该做的第1件事,是让别人交给你的要求不那么愚蠢。嗯,无论给出了哪些约束条件和要求,它们都有某种程度的低下,而你要让它们不那么愚蠢。如果你不这样做,不从这里开始,那么你可能,你回答正确,你会得到错误问题的正确答案。嗯,而且
第 13 段
要求必须来自一个能够解释该要求的人,而不是来自某个部门,因为那样你就不知道该找谁谈。嗯,然后第2步是删除零件,或者删除流程步骤。这听起来非常显而易见,然而我们一次又一次发现,呃,有些零件根本不需要,它们只是以防万一才被放进去,或者是误放进去的,又或者有一个步骤,有人以为需要,但实际上并不需要。这,这听起来显而易见得离谱,但我们从车上删除了太多毫无作用的零件。嗯,它们就只是放在那里。好吧,是的,我是说,有太多例子。嗯,呃,其中一个例子是,电池包顶部有3块,呃,玻璃纤维垫,呃,但它们部分覆盖着电池包,而那,它是,它是
第 14 段
我当时在电池包生产线上,而生产电池包的头号瓶颈,就是把这3块玻璃纤维垫粘到电池包顶部。所以,所以,所以这就是我对自己重复这套算法的原因,因为我一开始把事情的顺序全做反了。首先我试着将它自动化,嗯,然后我试着加速它,只想着那个,那个,我们加快速度。然后我试着简化它,直到最后我才把它删除。嗯,因为结果发现,嗯,Tesla 负责降低噪声和振动的团队,呃,也就是让,让汽车安静的团队,认为那些玻璃纤维垫之所以在那里,是因为电池安全团队,也就是负责预防电池起火的团队。然后我问电池防火团队,它们是做什么所需要的
第 15 段
,他们说,哦,噪声和振动。我就说,好吧,所以,所以后来我们让2辆车行驶,每辆车里放一个麦克风,而你根本听不出区别。所以我们为了一个本不该存在的情节费了那么大劲。嗯,然后另一个,另一个例子是,有一个,又是这样,这些就像是整个生产系统中的瓶颈,所以他们才,你知道,我在生产线上到处跑,试图修好生产线,呃,就像个疯子,呃,像一只塔斯马尼亚恶魔一样,像个疯子似的在工厂里到处跑。嗯,然后,呃,让我想想,我们有那个车身生产线,而 Model 3 曾一度卡住,因为,嗯,我们有一个激光焊接单元,用来,用来,嗯,焊接一个位于乘客脚部空间内的小型横向车身梁,在
第 16 段
前排座椅的的,而我看着这个,这个类似横梁的东西,我就想,这到底有什么用?嗯,因为整个工厂都停了下来,呃,试图安装,试图让这个激光焊接本身运转起来。嗯,我就说,我,我想象不出它能起什么有用的作用。然后团队说,生产团队说,哦,那是为了,为了碰撞安全。于是我,我打电话给碰撞安全团队,问这是为了碰撞安全吗,他们说,哦,不,那东西没有任何作用,我们应该删掉它。结果证明它完全没用。他们忘了告诉生产团队。所以老实说,这些事情中有一大堆都让人觉得自己活在《呆伯特》漫画里。哦,不,那是什么?我是说,任何,任何一家公司,他都会说,你们的呆伯特比率是多少?好吧,它
第 17 段
不是零。所以这是,这是你,还是这是你的公司问题?尽量把它维持在低位。所以,所以这是你,还是这是,所以这些不同的事情都是你做的?好吧,确实就是我。其他做这件事的人,我当时在,我当时住在,住在,住在弗里蒙特的工厂里,嗯,还有内华达州的那个工厂,连续住了3年。那是我的主要住所。不是开玩笑。真的是这样。你把那张沙发留着了吗?我,我其实有一次踩进了一张沙发,在屋顶上的一顶帐篷上。嗯,然后,但有一段时间,我就睡在自己的办公桌下面,那里就在工厂的开放区域里。嗯,而且这是出于一个重要原因。睡在那地板上真他妈不舒服,而且每次醒来,我身上闻起来都像金属粉尘。我们去参观时,他们给他买了一张新沙发
第 18 段
是的,但实际上,我不再用那张沙发了,在那个、在,因为这个小会议室,那里有一张沙发,我不再用那张沙发了。我就睡在办公桌下面的地板上,这样他们,这样在换班时,整个团队都能看到我。这很重要,因为,比如,你知道,团队里、那个、那个团队,比如,如果、如果、如果他们认为,他们的、算是他们的领导正在别处享乐,你知道,在热带岛屿上喝着我的领带,而这我绝对本来可以、可以去做,也会更愿意去做。让我,我不是一个,我其实不是受虐狂,我想,嗯。但是、但是,关键是,由于团队在换班时能看到我睡在地板上,嗯,是我只遇到了什么都没有,嗯,他们知道我在那里,而这带来了巨大的不同。
第 19 段
然后他们全力以赴,对吧,所以,所以重点始终是降低成本、提供领导力,而且这家公司,我们每年生产150万辆汽车,但你预计会生产20.
第 20 段
呃,那么,如果10年后你不在那里,会发生什么?如果5年后你不在那里,会发生什么?这要如何运作?我是说,会有所有这些人吗?所以在所有工程院校里,在顶尖工程院校里,每个人最想工作的首选地点都是测试他们的 SpaceX,这2个地方。那么我们是不是有所有这些人不断涌现、为了工作彼此争斗,还是他们会一起工作?你如何让人们说,天啊,我可以买那栋非常昂贵的房子,但我不会那么做;天啊,我可以买,我可以去度假,但我不去。我们的确多少存在这个问题。嗯,所以,你知道,当一家公司,嗯,获得繁荣,嗯,然后人们变得富有,那么对很多人来说,你知道,一旦他们变得超过了,他们算是经济独立
第 21 段
富裕之后,他们,他们就是无法让自己继续工作,或者他们只是,他们不想工作,而这完全,你知道,可以理解,我也不作评判。嗯,而且,所以,我是说,我有很多朋友,嗯,他们极具才华,呃,而且他们,他们,你知道,在人生早期取得了一些成功,呃,然后他们就决定,你知道,那些创伤已经够多了。嗯,我是说,你知道,我记得我的一位,我的一位好朋友说过,像,我们开始,开始创办一家公司,就像吃玻璃并凝视深渊。所以,所以当人们对我说,告诉我,你能做些什么来鼓励创业者创办公司时,我就说,如果你需要鼓励,那就别创办公司。[笑声] 嗯,在,呃,在 SpaceX,因此我们有,呃,你知道,算是竞争对手,我猜,比如 SLS,还有,你知道
第 22 段
我读到过,那不是,是的,就是,就是去诺斯罗普和洛克希德。嗯,而那些人建造发射台时,花了他们差不多,差不多10年和数十亿美元,而我们得建一个洗衣台,它花了几亿美元,并在6个月内建成。然后,然后我对这是怎么做到的很感兴趣,和我谈话的那位女士说,呃,罗恩,你去那里时看到那些管道了吗?我说,为什么它要花1亿美元?它看起来就像着陆场。我还说,你看到下面有什么了吗?你看到那些管道了吗?我说,没有,他们没给我看。她说,好吧,你应该知道,那里有所有这些把热量带走的管道,然后它们还全都把燃料输送给火箭,而且必须
第 23 段
在恰好正确的时间,以恰好正确的量送到那里,如果那没有发生,它就会爆炸。所以我说,好吧,埃隆是怎么知道这些的?因为你雇用这些杰出的人,然后问他们所有这些问题,接着不知怎么的,你记得我告诉你的一切。这是真的吗?嗯,我对技术事务的记忆力非常好。嗯,而且我,但,但我认为,可能很多人没有意识到,比如我在猿猴的时间里做的是,是工程。所以,嗯,你知道,我发表演讲其实相当罕见。嗯,我在 SpaceX 和 Tesla 的日常工作几乎完全是工程和设计。所以,嗯,而且,而且也包括生产,生产是关键,不过我认为那也是工程的一部分。嗯,是的,所以,嗯,但星舰很特别
第 24 段
嗯,那个就像,像圣杯一样,那个让生命成为多行星生命、让人类成为太空承载文明所需要的关键突破,是一枚能够完全且快速重复使用的火箭,开放火箭。我们在猎鹰9号上已经走完了大部分路程。
第 25 段
你们可能见过火箭助推器返回并着陆,我们也会回收鼻锥或整流罩,但我们不会回收上面级。所以,所以在猎鹰9号上,我们已经达到了大约,你知道,70到80可重复使用的程度。
第 26 段
嗯,在星舰上,我们的目标是100可重复使用。嗯,我无法,它能够说明这将是多么深刻的变化,但一枚能够完全且快速重复使用的,嗯,轨道火箭,有可能把进入太空的成本降低1000倍,1000倍,1000。[掌声] 我还应该说,Sasha 是,它是一枚非常、非常大的火箭。它的推力是土星5号的2倍以上,呃,质量大约是其2倍,而且整艘飞船也,整艘都被设计为以推进方式着陆,所以它可以着陆,在你做什么之前,我没听见,以发动机着陆,以推进方式着陆,所以它可以降落在太阳系内任何固体表面上。所以如果我们能让星舰成功,那么随着时间推移,它,它将使我们能够到达太阳系内的任何地方。那么为什么这如此困难?为什么不
第 27 段
让其他人做同样的事情?所以每个人都说这是不可能的,而我们正尝试做的事情,比我们正在用猎鹰做的事情难多少?好吧,所以,让我们看看,地球的引力实际上相当强,而且我们有一个,我们有一层浓厚的大气。因此按照已知物理学,制造一枚完全可重复使用的轨道火箭只是勉强可能,只是勉强可能。嗯,如果这是一款电子游戏,难度设定就是极难,不是不可能,而是极难。嗯,因为并不是以前开发火箭的人不知道可重复使用,他们知道,他们,你知道,完全离开销售更多火箭,他们完全知道可重复使用,飞机和汽车是合理的。嗯,只不过要让火箭能够重复使用,一切都必须完美
第 28 段
所以你必须拥有效率极高的发动机,你必须拥有效率极高的结构,你需要先进的航空电子设备和软件,你需要,你需要一个非常轻量的隔热罩或轨道再入。嗯,而前往火星的另一个关键因素,是你需要在轨道上补充燃料,这样你先把飞船送入轨道,然后再,你再把加油飞船送上去,为轨道上的飞船补充燃料,就像,嗯,空军进行空中加油那样。这些都是必需的事情,而且,嗯,这,这以前从未实现过。人们曾多次尝试实现它,而这些尝试全都,嗯,基本上全都失败了,而且通常,一旦他们,他们认为这不再可能,就会在项目进行到一半时取消项目。所以,所以这
第 29 段
只是一个非常困难的工程挑战。那么 SLS 的目标是抵达,呃,月球。他们在2010年拿到合同,原本应该耗资100亿美元,但它采用成本加成模式,现在已经涨到400亿美元,而他们说将达到1000亿美元,还有900亿美元。是的,而且,而且我们什么都还没有得到,而或者我们的火箭比他们的高10米,而且,呃,而且,而且我们的可以重复使用。如果他们不做我们正在做的事情,任何人怎么可能竞争?那怎么能,他们怎么能竞争?我不明白。他们又怎么能拿到合同?然后我刚刚看到,呃,NASA 的一些东西,他们说我们每年花费200亿美元,而且,哦,顺便说一下,那是所有这些国会选区里的360 000个工作岗位。好吧,我
第 30 段
我认为这,我必须谨慎考虑我在这里说什么。呃,我,我,你知道,我的敌人已经够多了。我会,我会希望拥有,你知道,我想,我,我想,是的,我希望想让我死的公司数量少很多,数量少很多,那就太好了。好吧,所以,但就像我说的,你知道,这件事很大一部分在于,目标是什么?你知道,就星舰而言,目标是,嗯,降低进入轨道并最终前往,前往火星、月球和其他地方的成本,降到人类真正负担得起成为多行星物种的程度,降到我们负担得起在月球上建立永久基地,并最终远远超越阿波罗计划最高水位线的程度。阿波罗计划令人难以置信,而且我认为,向往全人类,每一个人,如果你是
第 31 段
问人们,我想,无论在哪个国家,不只是美国人,而是任何人,20世纪最伟大的,什么是人类最伟大的成就?也许 Evelyn 登上月球,这就是为什么人们把“登月”当作隐喻。嗯,因为那令人难以置信。嗯,你知道,那项成就至今依然令人惊叹。事实上,很多人问我那是真的吗?我就说,是的,那是真的。好吧,他们可能是在 Twitter 上问的,那就是他们问这种问题的地方。[掌声] 嗯,我是说,那就是一项令人难以置信的成就,而且我认为它是那种,你知道,登上月球会让你为自己是人类的一员而自豪的事情。你知道,它就像完整和《为了全人类》,你知道,那,那是为了全人类。所以,所以它是惊人的成就,呃,而且,而且现在
第 32 段
我们有了这台网络望远镜,他们可以,你知道,我猜大爆炸发生在140亿年前,而第一缕光出现在135亿年前,我们的计划是4.5个存在。所以,所以我们能从中得到什么?那个,你知道,所以我,我,所以显然挣扎是一件真正的大事,1万亿美元的机会,也许,也许更多,也许是这样。呃,所以,所以回望135亿年前,我们能得到什么?那对我们有什么作用?我们会开发出什么技术?我们不,我们要做了才知道。是的,我认为,呃,我认为,成为多行星物种和太空承载文明,然后最终超越那一步,前往其他恒星系统并探索银河系,主要有2个,有2个动机
第 33 段
而且我认为,我们可能会发现,有许多单行星文明在数百万年前就灭绝了,从未抵达第2颗行星。你认为这会在你有生之年发生吗?我,嗯,这取决于我能活多久。嗯,也许永远,你知道,如果我不断,如果我不断增加那份敌人名单,可能也活不了多久。如果,如果,如果,如果最终是 Twitter 上某个愤怒的人干掉我,那就太讽刺了。好吧,现在你可以不让他们上 Twitter 了。是的,没错。嗯,所以总之,我认为这里有,但生命成为多行星生命,就像我们所知的生命成为多行星生命,有2个理由。我认为其中一个是防御性理由,也就是我们只是,我认为我们希望意识之光不会因为地球发生某些事情而熄灭,无论是,而且
第 34 段
而且,你知道,就恐龙而言,它们只需要担心,比如,你知道,流星和2座火山以及其他事情。嗯,但对我们人类来说,我们实际上有能力用核武器毁灭自己,呃,或者某种,你知道,疯狂的生物恐怖主义之类的东西。所以,嗯,你知道,所以,所以存在一些,存在一些不为零的危险,可能导致我们所知的地球生命终结。嗯,所以这算是防御性理由,以确保生命不只是一种无意识,它只是,它不只在地球上。嗯,那就是保护意识未来的防御性理由。嗯,然后我认为另一个重要理由是,它令人兴奋,而且它,它,它富有冒险性,而且它,它,它鼓舞人心。呃,它让,它就像让你
第 35 段
积极看待未来,你知道,而且,而且生命不能只是解决一个又一个问题。必须有值得受到鼓舞的理由,你知道,有触动你的心、让你说“是的,未来会很美好”的理由。当你起床,当你早上醒来时,我等不及想看看接下来会发生什么。而且,而且我认为那就是,你知道,人类前往火星,即使你自己不想去火星,而大多数人都不想,只要,只要观看它就好。坦率地说,那是一项艰苦的差事。嗯,这次,这不会是一次奢华远征。嗯,而且,呃,但,但你将能够观看它发生,而我认为这会给全世界带来难以置信的鼓舞,就像阿波罗计划曾经鼓舞全世界一样。嗯,而且就像我说的,必须有生命
第 36 段
不能只是解决一个又一个问题。我们需要能让我们对未来感到兴奋并受到鼓舞的事物,而那会是其中之一。外国的,呃,只说一会儿,然后我们会回到这些对我更有意思的东西。嗯,我,我试着退出这笔交易。你会跟我回到这里吗?让人想起《教父》里的那个场景,基本上是这样。但你告诉过我,你想问尖锐的问题。[笑声] 所以,呃,所以关于 Twitter,呃,可能会出什么问题呢?所以我看到这篇文章说,你买了一个叫 Twitter 的东西。嗯,它说,呃,马斯克推迟解除 Twitter 封禁。因此显然,那个大问题,至少对我来说,在,呃,在 Twitter 上,是我们拥有这个不可思议的,它是一家管理糟糕得不可思议的企业。呃,但那些人不知怎么的
第 37 段
通过把它卖给我们,为他们的股东做得很好,而,对。但我们买的不是他们出售的东西,我们买的是它将变成的某种东西。嗯,是的,呃,我是说,我认为,考虑到今年市场的演变,大多数人会说,比如,你知道,价格偏高,对吧?嗯,对,但那是不具侵入性的,它就是这样,是的。但就它,就我认为它所拥有的而言,那里存在巨大的潜力。嗯,实现它会非常困难,但我认为有可能,而且我认为它最终可能成为世界上最有价值的公司之一。所以,所以当我们思考这件事时,为了让那件事发生,为了让那件事,所以,所以我见到了你,而这花了我几年,然后我相信你和你的内心,对吧,你的内心。所以我认为
第 38 段
你是一个怀疑者,我们第一次见面时,你有点怀疑。呃,所以,所以我的思考方式是,我把我们国家,实际上是世界的未来托付给你,因为你掌管着那样一家媒体。所以我思考的是,那么你要如何防止成为犹太人,呃,你要如何防止这种反犹太主义?或者如果我是黑人,你要如何防止所有这些?所以,所以你要如何防止使用那个以 n 开头的词?而当我想到 Tick Tock 时,他们能够,我们只是通过看图片,就能判断你接下来要做什么。你知道,你移动左臂,你移动右臂,你还喜欢什么其他图片,这就是他们用软件做的事情,而且他们已经让算法很棒。我们怎么可能没有一个惊人的算法,因为我们
第 39 段
更多地了解他们,以便对 Tick Tock 采取措施,而且我们应该知道人们有什么兴趣,呃,而且,而且正因如此,从用词上说,我们应该能够弄清人们正在使用的词语是什么意思,并考虑他们感兴趣的内容,我们应该能够让软件弄清如何审核这些内容并防止这种情况发生,这是真的吗?还是不是?是的,是的,绝对是,嗯,完全同意,嗯,我想说清楚的是,但是,呃,你知道,Twitter 的内容审核政策并没有改变,而且,而且在 Twitter 上从事仇恨行为是,嗯,不,不可以的,嗯,所以,嗯,我们遇到过,比如实际上很奇怪的定向攻击,人们曾暂时得以在 Twitter 上发布一些仇恨言论,但是,嗯,但随后它就被
第 40 段
立即删除了,嗯,所以现在,现在我不想尝试通过这种让每个人都能借助 Twitter Blue 完成付费认证的方式实现的是,设法让尽可能多的人完成付费认证,每月只要8美元,嗯,尽管有些人在抱怨这一点,而这些人在网上为他们的拿铁付的钱还更多,我会成为你的 Twitter 评论,好吧,谢谢,谢谢,嗯,但是,但是,比如说,这一部分是收入,一部分是付款身份验证,所以如果有人,呃,因为 Twitter 上存在严重的垃圾信息、机器人和网络喷子问题,还有一些组织试图操纵公众舆论,以及总的来说让系统变得更糟,嗯,而我认为,但我认为这个问题有一个答案
第 41 段
那就是让尽可能多的 Twitter 普通用户成为每月8美元的订阅者,而每月8美元能得到的远不只是蓝色对勾,因为现在我们可以负担得起长篇视频、很长很长的音频播客,而且我们还可以开始与内容创作者分享收入,这一点至关重要,给他们赚钱的机会,是的,绝对如此,只是,所以我的意思是,现在如果你在 Twitter 上,你会看到很多发布出来的 YouTube 和 Tick Tock 链接,嗯,这是因为至少到目前为止,Twitter 甚至没有给他们足够的视频时长来发布视频,嗯,然后他们也没有给内容创作者任何通过视频变现的手段,所以我们会在 Twitter 迅速改变这一点,它将
第 42 段
具有变革性,但是,但是如果我们能获得足够多的认证用户,我们会把,嗯,Twitter 搜索、回复、提及中经过认证的用户排在前面,嗯,而且,而且,是的,没问题,那就是所谓的放大,是的,所以,所以,如果你通过蓝色对勾完成付费认证,那么你就会被优先展示,嗯,所以,这样做的重点是让犯罪无利可图,嗯,因为,嗯,因为目前在 Twitter 上创建一个机器人的成本不到1美分,嗯,所以犯罪成本如此低廉,这也是为什么犯罪,嗯,还有仇恨行为会有利可图的一部分原因,但如果有人甚至面临损失8美元的风险,就是他们,或者你,现在拥有100000个虚假账号就太昂贵了,因为他们必须每月花费800000美元,嗯,而不是,你知道,每月800美元,所以,嗯
第 43 段
然后,由于我们也在使用付款身份验证,呃,我们是在搭付款系统身份验证机制的便车,同时也在借助,呃,Apple 的身份验证机制,这是另一层安全保障,所以随着时间推移,其净效果将是,经过认证的用户将会,几乎总是出现在评论和搜索的最上方,而你不会真正看到,你必须向下滚动很远才能看到未经认证的用户,他们将是机器人和控制之类的,而这有点类似于,嗯,Google 搜索,比如,嗯,如果你进入 Google 搜索的第8页,那里会有大量诈骗和其他东西,你知道,可以叫第8页、第9页,类似那样,嗯,但是,关键是 Google 搜索结果的
第 44 段
第1页非常好,所以你永远不会去第8页,嗯,或者很少去,就像那个老笑话,比如我们不想看到的东西会被压到很下面,是的,基本上不好的东西会被压到很下面,嗯,而且,而且,而且之后犯罪就无利可图了,于是他们就不再试图做所有这些事情,而我们可以招募他们当工程师,为我们编程,犯罪分子,是的,嗯,所以我的意思是,那个笑话是,藏尸体的最佳地点是哪里,会是 Google 搜索结果的第2页,根本没人去那里,所以,所以今天我们解雇了,呃,Twitter 一半的员工,而且,呃,这应该能为我们每年节省多少,40亿?不,它不会每年省下40亿,我倒希望可以,但是,嗯,呃,所以,呃,我的意思是,坦率地说,呃,Twitter 正面临相当严重的收入挑战和成本
第 45 段
挑战,嗯,在收购谈判开始之前就是如此,而任何依赖广告的公司,嗯,都经历了一段艰难时期,所以,呃,如果你看看,比如 Snap,或者,你知道,Google、Facebook 之类的,它们都因为广告收入下降而经历了困难,而 Twitter 比它们更,你知道,目前更容易受到广告影响,因为 Twitter 的大部分广告都是大型品牌广告,而不是直接响应广告,所以与,呃,比如,如果你,如果你能够针对某种特定产品做直接响应广告相比,它更像是一种自由支配程度高得多的广告支出,嗯,所以,然后我们最近也遇到了很多困难,因为激进团体向主要广告商施压,要求他们停止在 Twitter 上花钱,嗯,尽管我们做了所有事情
第 46 段
尽可能安抚他们,并明确说明审核规则和仇恨接触规则没有改变,呃,我们还在继续执行这些规则。嗯,一些主要广告商已经停止在 Twitter 上投放广告。嗯,所以这些……但这似乎不对,因为,嗯,我们的运营完全没有任何改变,而且,嗯,但尽管如此,活动团体还是成功导致 Twitter 的广告收入大幅下降,而我们已经竭尽全力安抚他们,但什么都不起作用,所以这是一个重大关切,而且坦率地说,我认为这是对第一修正案的攻击。嗯,比如,如果活动团体能够向广告商施压,而 Twitter 从根本上依赖这些广告商,嗯,来,你知道,压制言论自由,那么那并不
第 47 段
显得正确。我的意思是,顺便说一下,是4亿而不是40亿,我实际上想说的是4亿而不是40亿。哦,是的,好吧,所以,所以我们现在到了这里,你住在这个地方,接下来2、3周你都会去那里,你将全身心投入,然后我们已经安排好了一个团队,你认为你已经安排好了一个团队,你,呃,来管理它,然后你就会像我们管理 SpaceX 和 Tesla 那样做,你只要定期参加会议,说这就是我们需要做的,把它做好,这就是我们需要的。是的,我的,我的工作量从每周大约,我不知道,70到80小时,增加到了可能120小时。
第 48 段
嗯,所以,是的,我睡觉,我醒来,我工作,去睡觉,醒来,工作,每周7天都这样。我得这样做一段时间,别无选择。嗯,但我认为,一旦 Twitter 走上正确的道路,我认为它会比 SpaceX 或 Tesla 容易管理得多。所以,嗯,而且我,我的意思是,我真的了解互联网,也知道如何做出一个……所以我写过软件,写过软件,但我亲自写了20年软件。嗯,你知道,它是 Hey x. 背后的关键人物之一。
第 49 段
com,它后来变成了 PayPal。嗯,所以我也,比如,我了解一个……而且我知道怎样做出一个好得多的 PayPal。嗯,因为是你创建了 PayPal。是的,是的,差不多吧。嗯,我的意思是,是和很多其他人一起,但有一份我写的产品计划,我真希望自己当时留了一份副本,是在2000年7月写的,当时我认为有可能打造出世界上最有价值的金融机构,而我们将执行那份22年前的计划,令人惊讶的是,一直没人这么做。而且,所以我,我认为这就是我认为 Twitter 最终会极其有价值的部分原因,因为我要执行 x.
第 50 段
com 在22年前的行动计划,并做一些改进。嗯,而且,嗯,然后我们显然也会把 Twitter 变成一个好得多的系统。嗯,我的意思是,有一个令人难过的理由是,嗯,你知道,如果,如果一家社交媒体公司没有,嗯,没有采取措施并让人们在那个社交平台上获得积极体验,那么人们就不会来,或者他们会离开,你知道。所以你谈到某种反犹主义或种族主义之类的东西。好吧,我的意思是,如果这些东西很普遍,谁会留在一个平台上,比如那,那显然,是的,我的意思是,得了吧,而且终极的是其内在的错误,如果……谁会留在这个平台上?嗯,所以,比如,你,你想成为……它需要成为这样一种东西:嗯,比如我们对 Twitter 的目标是,我们怎样让美国的80,也许不是像
第 51 段
极左派和极右派那样的人,但,但是,也许我们也不一定想要,不过,呃,我们怎样让公众中的80加入一个数字市民广场,表达他们的观点、交流想法,也许偶尔改变他们的想法。嗯,偶尔。是的,我的意思是,你知道,偶尔。嗯,所以我还读到你说过,然后我们就不再谈 Twitter 了,但你说,你的目标是,你想让极右派那20的人恨你,就像你想让极左派那20的人恨你一样。所以……好吧,我,我不想让他们恨我。嗯,但,但是我认为极端主义者,比如,你知道,就是非常难以让极端主义者满意。嗯,除非你完全接受他们的任何教条。所以,嗯,但我,我有信心我们能让,比如
第 52 段
我不知道,美国的80,世界的80满意。嗯,而且,但也许无法让两边最……最极端的10满意,而我会把这视为一个很好的结果。而且我认为,我认为拥有某种,一个数字市民广场很重要,让人们能自在地交谈。嗯,在那里……而且我还认为,就像其中一件重要的事,是能够以某种方式决定你想在 Twitter 上获得什么样的体验。嗯,因为,你知道,有些人可能总会说,好吧,比如,我想要这种……如果这是一家电台,我想要这个轻松悦耳的柔和爵士乐电台。好吧,很好,但那很好,那样你就没能为……设置那个选项,为 Twitter 设置那个选项。而且,呃,然后有些人可能会说,说,比如,不,我想要重金属
第 53 段
激流金属,而且,而且,而且,比如,好吧,那么现在这将会有点……然后,别人对你说刻薄的话,你也不会介意,你知道,只要在法律范围内,而且你不介意在 Twitter 上进行激烈的争论以及诸如此类的事情。但你应该能够有点像选择自己的偏好,并且决定你是否想要某种全接触式战斗,或者,或者你想要的是,比如,不,我只想看看小狗、鲜花和漂亮的风景之类的东西。所以,所以我们不谈 Twitter 了。嗯,另外2个话题,呃,你有一些问题。呃,第1个是物流,当我们开始,呃,生产这么多汽车,到今年年底,每周4万辆,4万辆汽车。我的意思是,我必须谨慎对待 mnpi,呃,但,呃,我相信我已经在……说过
第 54 段
过去我们曾公开表示,我们的目标是到今年年底达到每周40 000辆,所以如果我们做到了,那就意味着,呃,每15秒生产一个核心,对,而,呃,所以但那仍然只有每年200万辆车。每年生产的汽车有1亿辆,所以问题是,那么这大概需要有能力、有物流把所有这些车运往各地,让人们在他们想要的地方提车,但如果他们都在同一周提车就不行。是的,完全正确。所以,嗯,我们的第三季度业绩受到了一点批评,一点批评,因为我们,嗯,有很多车在运输途中,嗯,原因是我们规模变得太大,以至于我们的车实际上无法在最后几周全部运走,嗯,没有足够的汽车
第 55 段
运输车,也没有足够的船。所以,但从长远来看这其实是好事,这其实是好事,嗯,对,可以让交付更加平稳,而且实际上在季度末有汽车处于运输途中,呃,因为这样你就不用赶着在季度结束前把一切都交付出去,也不用支付所有这些加急费用,嗯。所以,所以我的问题一直是,如果我们有自动驾驶,也有自动驾驶卡车,这是不是其中一个想法,也就是如果没有足够的司机,我们将能够用自己的方式运输东西,我们将拥有自动运输?是的,这是问题1。我们也可以,是的,我是说,如果你在,如果你在这个地区,就让车自己开到你那里,对吧。这是一个,然后另一个是关于材料,以及当所有
第 56 段
突然之间,所以我们不知怎么地应对了其他人遇到的供应链问题,你可能会以为,我们之所以能做到这一点,是因为我们绝对卓越的才智,但原因可能是,当你起步时,每年一辆车都不生产,却去找某个人说,我们将从零开始每年生产2000万辆车,谁会相信你,并制造我们需要的所有设备?所以因此,我们最初被迫能够说,好吧,我们会弄到,你知道,我们要垂直整合,我们不能依赖你们,既进行垂直整合,又,是的,削减它材料。如果你愿意,我可以讲得更久。一条消息,再多讲一点材料,怎么讲,所以我们有地质学,我们,任何人想向我们展示一座矿,我们都有人员
第 57 段
在头脑中弄清楚,他们知识丰富,而且他们来找我们说,我们可以生产这么多锂、这么多铜、这么多,我们能够评估这些,并给出合同,以便能够说,合同协议,好,而他们会,而他们会依靠我们的协议,其他人他们不会,这公平吗?还有嘉能可,呃,好吧,随着时间推移,规模化的制约因素会发生变化,而在一开始,我们,我们只是高度垂直整合,因为供应商不把我们当回事,嗯,比如我们几乎找不到任何,最好的供应商不会和我们谈,因为自从克莱斯勒在第三,在20年代以来,汽车初创公司在美国就没有成功过,我相信他们就是那时起步的。所以自从一家汽车公司在
第 58 段
美国取得成功以来,已经过去了一个世纪,而且那不是一家进入美国的外国汽车公司,那种公司在本国市场已经取得了成功。所以,但对于一家美国汽车初创公司来说,这是第一次,Tesla是100年来第一次成功。所以你可以想象,如果你是一家汽车供应商,那听起来并不是一个明智的财务决定。没错,嗯,所以我们,我们不得不自己做,只能自己制造很多东西、进行垂直整合,否则我们就无法,无法造出这辆车,嗯,而,而这最终变成了,嗯,一项资产,因为现在我们对整个供应链,或者制造一辆车需要什么,有了非常深入的了解。所以我们能够设计出一款集成度更高的,呃,汽车,呃,它实际上,嗯,需要的零部件少得多、成本更低、重量更轻,而且性能更高,但看起来越来越
第 59 段
轻,对于电池的一些关键元素来说,这告诉了……我们,我们将需要进入采矿业务,包括采矿和精炼,你知道,这就是为什么宣布了嘉能可,这就是我们在与嘉能可谈的地方。我们没有,而且我们,我们从未考虑过投资嘉能可,嗯,我说的是Tesla自己做。是的,呃,恭喜。还有更多时间回答一些观众的问题。给我几个。灯也开得太快了,当权者。我无论如何都会这么做。我是说,这是给我的还是给你的?我不知道。提问。所以顺便说一下,如果你们在我们送出,呃,抽奖奖品之前离开,奖品是2辆Tesla,你们就没有资格获得Tesla,不过请继续。我想上次我曾经额外送过1辆,但,呃,我们不会再这么做了
第 60 段
再说一遍,你必须坐在自己的座位上,才能获得Tesla。钱是我付的,不是,不是埃隆。问题。呃,埃隆,塞涅卡曾经说过,每个天才都有一点疯狂。我想你会喜欢这句话,不过我同意疯狂的那部分。嗯,所以即使Tesla是一家上市公司,呃,我想它已经从高点下跌了40%之类的,目前的市盈率是70倍。与此同时,现在生产电动汽车的梅赛德斯-奔驰市盈率是6倍,收益率为5%。为什么我应该投资Tesla,而不是梅赛德斯-奔驰?嗯,实际上,我,嗯,很少试图说服任何人投资Tesla,而且很多次我都建议人们不要投资Tesla,我还说过我们的股价太高了,但人们就是不理我,继续买这只股票,不知什么
第 61 段
原因,嗯。所以,嗯,但如果我从,从非常高的层面来看,我会说,自动驾驶是一项极其根本性的突破,而,而在解决通用自动驾驶或通用自动驾驶车辆方面,没有任何人接近Tesla,没有任何人接近,嗯。而且,而且有了自动驾驶,正如我之前谈到的,那辆车会变得,大致来说,有5倍那么有用,但制造成本却相同。现在你能想象会发生什么吗?如果一家公司正在做,他们做到了大约25%到30%的毛利率,但突然间同一件东西的价值变成了5倍,那会对Tesla的价值以及那辆车的价值产生什么影响?这实际上令人难以置信,嗯。所以你知道,如果你考虑未来现金流的净现值,如果你真的做一下计算
第 62 段
那太疯狂了,嗯。然后还有Optimus项目,也就是我们的人形机器人,嗯,我们将利用我们的制造专长,以及,而且利用我们为自动驾驶开发的智能,来打造一个有用的人形机器人,嗯。现在经济从根本上说是人均GDP乘以资本。如果因为有了有用的人形机器人,你不再受到人头数的约束,那么经济规模是否存在任何上限并不明确。[掌声] 而且这些事情真的会发生。所以,好吧,这大概是个不错的理由。那,再问1个问题。[掌声] 好吧,这是最后1个问题。[笑声] 请讲。考虑到你们要制造的所有汽车,考虑到你们要制造的所有汽车,而且,呃,我希望罗恩是对的,不管是1000万辆还是2000万辆,你们将
第 63 段
需要在世界各地设置大量充电站。是的。你有没有想过,以一种从ESG角度来看对我们的,嗯,生态系统更高效、更经济、更好的方式来做这件事?因为你可能知道,也可能不知道,世界上现有4亿盏路灯,而每盏路灯都有无处不在、持续不断的电力。你可以拿其中一定数量的路灯,其中一半归公用事业公司所有,另一半归城市所有,并对其重新利用,而这很可能是在全世界铺设数百万个充电站最具成本效益的方式。好吧,好吧,谢谢。我,我想伦敦和其他一些城市实际上正在采用这个想法。但如果,如果,我是说,我认为我们的超级充电站的长期目标是,它们
第 64 段
全都有单独的设备,比如Tesla单独设备,并配有电池,从而让尽可能多的充电站能够自给自足,让,让超级充电站在白天发电,然后还配备本地电池组,嗯,以便人们能在夜间充电,从而让,让Tesla超级超级充电站即使在丧尸末日中也能继续运转。所以你永远不知道。那总有一天会到来。我们知道。是的,只是时间问题。非常感谢。我可以和你自拍一张吗?好吧,自拍一张。我把它发到Twitter上。你的,你的胳膊比我的长。另外,呃,请使用Twitter。我,我,而且你现在就在这么做,还有请,请订阅Twitter认证,8美元,呃,而且,呃,实际上严格来说是7.
第 65 段
99,所以,呃,稍微少一点,嗯,但我真的鼓励在座每个人使用Twitter,呃,而且,呃,而且,而且,呃,你知道,呃,是的,请这么做。来吧。[掌声]
Paragraph 1
tonight [Music] I'm invincible [Music] you know there are American Heroes who don't like this idea Neil Armstrong Gene cernan have both testified against commercial space flight in the way that you're developing it and I wonder what you think of that I was very sad to see that because those guys are yeah you know those guys are heroes of mine so it's really tough when you had that third failure in a row did you think I need to pack this in never why not I don't ever give up [Music] hello you know I tell you something every time I see that clip it chills me every single time and I look at a lot so thank you very much for coming here I know it's not convenient it's not around the corner I'm really appreciative absolutely I think thank you for having me
Paragraph 2
um I was on a red-eye flight so I I'm a little slower than normal to say I didn't get much sleep so you know that's uh that's sort of my first question is that so you're 51 yeah no spring I think I'm safely not a spring chicken anymore I hope a late summer chicken I'm 79.
Paragraph 3
yes but just to do I mean you look great so you're 51 and uh and you do 16-hour days and you work seven hours a week and you fly all over the place and you go to these meetings constantly and and people constantly criticize you for everything it's amazing to me I mean you're changing the world and you're giving yourself why do you do this so my wife says to me why are you still working why are you still working what are you doing here well I think the um what I'm working on has important uh as an important effect on the future um you know in the case of Tesla I think it's fair to say that Tesla has significantly a significantly accelerated the Advent of sustainable energy you know before Tesla no one was doing electric cars and now as a result of Tesla
Paragraph 4
I think almost every major car company in the world has is um going is building electric cars and and uh that's I think that's that's a pretty big deal um but there's still a long way to go uh to transition the world to a sustainable energy economy and so so so we still have a lot of work ahead of us at Tesla but that's that's our goal there and then for SpaceX I think it's important for the for the future for the future to be exciting and for humanities um existence to be insured over the long term I think we must become a multi-planet species and a space-bearing civilization um you know I think the um we're here like four and a half billion years after Earth Earth got started uh 13.
Paragraph 5
8 billion years into the age of the universe and it's only now recently in the last 5 000 years that we even we invented writing I would say date the first Civilization by when we there was the first writing which was um in ancient Samaria around five five or six thousand years ago so we've basically just been here for a very brief instant a blink all of human civilization is a blink of an eye if there was an eye in in on an evolutionary time scale so so I think it's important we take the actions to ensure that the light of Consciousness continues and because you should we should really view Consciousness as as a small candle and a vast Darkness so it could easily go out so you so we have these missions uh and somehow whenever you have a mission and you
Paragraph 6
have this vision and you are a Visionary it's somehow whatever you do you develop other businesses so when you started SpaceX you didn't think about satellites when you started Tesla you didn't think about robots when you don't have enough people you didn't think about robots uh and uh so so you didn't think about autonomous driving and without Elon there would not be electric cars nobody who makes cars wants to make electric cars they're being forced to make them in fact every time they sell electric car they sell one fewer car that they make money on and say and they have all that money invested in plans to make those other cars so nobody wants to have these cars except for him and everybody thought it was going to fail so uh so and one of the things
Paragraph 7
she said is that patents are for the week and you share your patents and and with other companies of course on the other hand when they get your patents you're two or three years ahead of them well I mean joking about patents for the week I think there is a role for patents um you know let's say if somebody's spent if some company has spent a lot of money developing a particular medicine and had to go through the expense of uh you know stage three medical trials and then they then they finally get something that is approved but but where the drug itself is cheap to manufacture then I think a patent in that case makes sense otherwise no one would go to the trouble of doing stage three medical trials um so there are definitely roles for patents um in the
Paragraph 8
case of Tesla the you know our goal is to advance sustainable energy and so and we can't just do it by ourselves when we need the whole industry to go that way so we gave them our patents for free in order to help them accelerate electric vehicles so it must be terrifying to other companies to realize that women we make cars it's 39 000 in cost the car and we're making fifteen thousand dollars sixteen thousand dollars in profit a car and so we invest seven billion dollars and we make 15 billion dollars a year uh I'm sorry yeah at 15 rate 15 a million cars fifteen thousand fifteen a million a year and a seven million dollar investment shopping so no one else does that and when we're and and here you're telling us how you want to make cars for twenty thousand
Paragraph 9
dollars a piece how do you do that well we're not formally announced um our next car program so I can't talk too much about our upcoming vehicle program or programs that have not been announced but we do expect to make cars that are more affordable than the current the model 3 or model y so and a big factor in this is yeah [Applause] but I think by far the biggest factor is autonomy and the in terms of value of a car because right now cars get driven for about 10 or 12 hours a week like maybe one and a half hours a day and um so but there's 168 hours in a week and so if they were autonomous you could probably drive the cars could drive for 50 or 60 hours so you would see a five-fold increase in the utility of a car you know that can do autonomy this is
Paragraph 10
a really really gigantic thing it would also mean that there was we wouldn't need anywhere nearest any parking lots and this would also be helpful for the environment because you would need far fewer cars so uh I misspoke it was a seven billion dollar investment for a plant that makes a million cars a year that makes 15 billion dollars a year in profits they invest 7 billion and you make 15 billion dollars a year who does that and for a plan that makes you know things uh manufacturing and so the way this is accomplished is so you're doing it with casting right now and casting half of the car and you're going to soon cast the other half of the car and other companies why don't they try why don't they try to do the do what we're doing in fact one of the
Paragraph 11
executives of another automobile company uh wanted me to introduce her to you and you did that once in a meeting and now she wants to come visit with her director of engineering it's our plant in Austin and I presume when I ask you you're going to say yeah bring her on because you innovate so fast by the time anyone copies what we're doing let's go on to something else what else is there how when you're casting what else is there that enables us to make a cheaper we're eliminating a lot of other parts are we eliminating functions what are we doing to do that to be how would we sell a car that's so cheap I I mean I think the full explanation or at least an accurate explanation would take a long time um because the first approximation a car is made of 10
Paragraph 12
000 unique parts and process steps um and we've I mean Tesla's really I think at this point um probably the best at Manufacturing in the Auto industry which I think would nobody was expecting probably in history of the world probably um yeah so um well I've got this like first principles algorithm that I find to be very helpful in and any in the design and manufacturing of anything um and people here may find it helpful the the first thing you should do is make the requirements that you've been given a less dumb um whatever constraints and requirements were given there were some degree down and you want to make them less dumb if you don't do that start with this then you can you answer the right you get the right answer to the wrong question um and the
Paragraph 13
the requirements must be given from a person who can explain the requirement not from a department because then you don't know who to talk to um then step two is delete the part or delete the process step this sounds extremely obvious and yet over and over again we have found that uh parts were not needed they were just put in there just in case or by mistake or there was a step that people someone thought was needed but was not actually needed the The Sounds insanely obvious but we've deleted so many parts from the car that were did nothing um they were just there well yeah I mean so many examples um uh in one example was there were three uh fiberglass mats on top of the battery pack uh but they partially covered the battery pack and that it was it was
Paragraph 14
I was on the battery pack production line and it was the number one thing choking battery pack production with these with gluing on these three fiberglass mats to the top of the battery pack and so so so this is the reason I repeat this algorithm myself is that I first did things backwards first I try to automate it um then I try to accelerate it just have the the let's go faster then I try to simplify it and only then did I delete it um because it turned out that the um the the team at Tesla that does noise and vibration minimization uh so making making a car quiet uh thought that the fiberglass mats were there because of the battery safety team which for battery fire prevention and then I asked the battery fire prevention team what were they needed
Paragraph 15
for and they said oh noise and vibration I'm like okay so so then we had two cars drive one with a microphone in the car in each car and you could not tell the difference so we went to all that trouble for a plot that should not exist um and then another another example was there was a a again this was like these were choke points in the entire production system that's why they you know I'm running around the production line trying to fix the production line uh just like a maniac uh sort of Tasmanian Devil just running around the factory like a lunatic um and uh let's see we have the the body production line and model 3 was at one point stuck because um that we had a laser welding cell to to um weld a small cross car beam in the passenger footwell of
Paragraph 16
the of the front seats and I'm looking at this this sort of this beam and I'm like what the heck does that do um because the entire Factory is stopped uh trying to put trying to get the the laser weld itself to work um and I'm like I I can't imagine what a useful thing it could do and then the team said the production team said oh that's for for crash safety so then I I called the crash safety team and said is this for crash safety and said oh no that was that didn't do anything we should delete it it turned out to be totally useless they forgot to tell the production team so honestly a bunch of these things just feel like you're living in a Dilbert cartoon oh no what's that I mean any any given company he says like what's your Dilbert ratio okay it's
Paragraph 17
not zero so is this is this you or is this your corporate question try to keep it low so so is this you or is this so you do all these different things here well it's literally me someone else who did this I was in the I was living in the in the in the factory in Fremont um and and the one in in Nevada for three years straight that was my primary residence no kidding literally did you keep the couch I I actually stepped in a couch at one point on a tent on the roof um and then but for a while there I was just sleeping under my desk which is out in the open in the factory um and for an important reason and it was damn uncomfortable sleeping on that floor and always when I woke up I'd smell like metal dust we went to visit and they bought him a new couch
Paragraph 18
yeah but actually I stopped using the couch in the in because this little conference room and a couch there I stopped using the couch I just slept on the floor under my desk so that they so during shift change the entire team could see me and that's important because like you know the on the the team like if if if they think the the sort of their leader is is off somewhere having a good time you know drinking my Ties on a tropical island which I could definitely have have been doing and would much have preferred to do let me I'm not a I'm not actually a masochist I think um but but the thing is that since the team could see me sleeping on the floor um during shift change was I just met with nothing um they knew I was there and that made a huge difference
Paragraph 19
and then they gave it their all right so so the focus is on always lowering cost and providing leadership and and this company we're doing a million and a half Cars a year but you expect to do 20.
Paragraph 20
uh and and so what happens uh in 10 years if you're not there what happens in five years if you're not there how's that work I mean are there all these people so in all the engineering schools the top engineering schools the top choice of where everybody wants to work is test their SpaceX those two places so do we have all these people coming up and fighting each other for the job or they're working together how do you get people to say gee I could buy that real expensive house but I'm not going to do that boy I could buy I could go on vacation I'm not we do have that problem a little bit um so you know as a company um has Prosperity um and then people become wealthy then for a lot of people you know that once they become past they're sort of independently
Paragraph 21
wealthy they they just can't bring themselves to work or they're just they don't want to work and that's totally you know understandable and no judgment um and and so I mean I have a lot of friends who um who are extremely talented uh and they they you know had some success uh earlier in life and they just decided you know that was enough trauma um I mean you know I remember one of my my good friend of mine saying like we're start starting a company is like eating glass and staring into the abyss so so when people say tell me like what can you do to encourage entrepreneurs to start companies I'm like if you need encouragement don't start a company [Laughter] um in uh in SpaceX and so we have uh you know competitors sort of I guess so SLS and you know
Paragraph 22
I read about that's not yeah just just going Northrop in Lockheed um and with those guys when they build the launching pad it took them like like 10 years and billions of dollars and we had a build a laundry pad and it cost a few hundred million dollars and did it in six months and and then I was interested in how that was done and the woman I'm talking to says that uh Ron did you see the plumbing when you went there I said why should it cost 100 million dollars it looks like it's a landing fields and I said would you see what's underneath did you see the plumbing I said no they didn't show that to me and she said well you should be aware that there's all these pipes that take away the Heat and then they all deliver fuel to the rocket and it has to be
Paragraph 23
there at an exact right amount at the exact right time and if it's not that doesn't happen it blows up and so I said well how does Elon know this and because you hire these great people and then you ask them all these questions and then somehow you remember everything I tell you is that true well my memory for technical matters is is very good um and I but but I I think probably a lot of people don't realize like what I do apes of the time is is engineering so um you know it's actually quite rare for me to give a talk um and my day-to-day work at SpaceX and Tesla is almost entirely engineering and design so um and and also production production is key but although I consider that to be part of engineering um yeah so um but Starship is something special
Paragraph 24
um the thing that is like the the Holy Grail like the critical breakthrough needed to make life multi-planetary and for Humanity to be a space-bearing civilization is a fully and rapidly reusable rocket open Rocket and so we've gone most of the way there with Falcon 9.
Paragraph 25
you may have seen the rocket booster come back and land and we also recover the nose cone or fairing but we do not recover the upper stage so so we've gone to the point where we're about you know 70 to 80 reusable with with falcon 9.
Paragraph 26
um with Starship we're going for 100 reusable um I cannot it's able to say how profound a change this will be but a fully and rapidly reusable um orbital rocket has the potential to drop the cost of access to space by a factor of a thousand factor of a thousand a thousand [Applause] and I should say also Sasha is it's a very very big rocket it's more than twice the thrust of a Saturn V and uh about twice the mass and it's also the entire ship is the is designed to land propulsively so it can land before you do what I didn't hear to land on its engines to land propulsively so it can land on any solid surface in the solar system so if we can make Starship work then it it enables us to over time get anywhere in the solar system so why is it so hard why don't
Paragraph 27
other people do the same thing so everyone says it's impossible and how much harder is it to do what we're trying to do than we're doing with falcon well so let's see Earth's gravity is actually quite strong and we have a we have a thick atmosphere so with known physics it is only barely possible to make a fully reusable orbital rocket only barely possible um this was a video game the setting is a extreme difficulty not impossible but Extreme difficulty um because it's not like those who have developed Rockets before weren't aware of reusability they were they were you know fully away sell more Rockets they're fully aware of reusability that aircraft and cars are reasonable um it's just that in order for a rocket to be reusable everything has to be perfect
Paragraph 28
so you have to have exceptionally efficient engines you have to have an exceptionally efficient structure you need Advanced avionics and software you need you need a a very lightweight heat shield or orbital reentry um and then another key factor for traveling to Mars is you need orbital refilling so that you get the ship to orbit and then you you send up tankers to refill the the shipping orbit just like um is done by the Air Force with aerial refueling those are the things that are necessary and um it's it's never been achieved before there have been many attempts to achieve it and they've all um been basically they all failed and they usually they would cancel the program part way through once they they thought it was no longer possible so so it's
Paragraph 29
just a very difficult engineering challenge so SLS is supposed to get uh to the Moon they got a contract in 2010 and it was supposed to be for 10 billion dollars but it was cost plus it's now up to 40 billion dollars and they say it's going to be 100 billion dollars and 90 billion dollars yeah and and we haven't gotten anything and or we have our rocket is 10 meters taller than theirs and uh and and we can reuse ours how can anyone possibly compete if they're not doing what we're doing how can that how can they compete I don't understand and how can they get contracts and then I just saw something from uh from NASA and they said that we're spending 20 billion a year and oh by the way that's the 360 000 jobs in all these congressional districts well I
Paragraph 30
I think this I have to be careful of what I say here uh I I you know I have enough enemies I would I would like to have you know I think I I think yes I would like to have smaller a lot a smaller number of companies that want me to die that would be great okay so but like I said you know what a big part of this is like what's the goal you know in the case of Starship the goal is um to lower the cost of access to orbit and ultimately to to Mars and the moon and elsewhere to the point where Humanity can actually afford to become a multi-planet species to the point where we can afford to have a permanent base on the moon and ultimately far exceed the high water mark of Apollo which was incredible and I think aspiring to all of humanity everyone if you were
Paragraph 31
to ask people I think what was in any country not Americans anyone what was the what was the greatest what was Humanity's greatest achievement in the 20th century maybe Evelyn go to the Moon and that's why they say moonshot as a metaphor um because that was incredible um you know still amazing that that was achieved in fact a lot of people asked me was it real I'm like yeah it was real well it's probably on Twitter that's where they asked that [Applause] um I mean that was just an incredible achievement and I think it's it's one of those things that you know going to the Moon makes you proud to be a member of humanity you know it's like full and For All Mankind you know that's that it was For All Mankind so so it's amazing achievements uh and and now
Paragraph 32
we have this web telescope they can you know I guess the Big Bang was 14 billion years ago and and first light is 13 and a half billion years ago and our plan is four and a half being so so what do we get out of this what is the you know so I I so obviously struggling a really big deal a trillion dollar opportunity maybe maybe more and maybe right and uh so so what do we get uh out of seeing back 13 and a half billion years what does that do for us what technology do we develop we don't we know we don't know until we do it yeah I think uh I think like there's two there's two main motivations I think for becoming a multi-planet species and a space-bearing civilization and then ultimately going beyond that to go to other star systems and explore the Galaxy
Paragraph 33
and I think we may find that there's there's many one planet civilizations that died out millions of years ago I never made it to the second planet do you think in your lifetime that happens that I well it depends how long I live um maybe forever you know I keep if I keep increasing that enemies listed might not be much longer are we deeply ironic if if if if it's someone angry on Twitter that takes me out well now you can keep them off Twitter yeah exactly um so anyway I think there's but there's two reasons for life to become multi-planetary like as we know it to become multi-planetary I think one is the defensive reason where we just I think we want the the light of Consciousness to not be extinguished if something would happen to Earth whether and
Paragraph 34
and you know in the case of the dinosaurs they only had to worry about like you know meteors and two volcanoes and other things um but for us humans we actually have the power to destroy ourselves with nuclear weapons uh or or some sort of you know crazy bio terrorism thing so um you know so so there's some there's some danger that is not zero that could cause the end of life on Earth as we know it um so that's kind of the defensive reason to ensure that life is not just an unconsciousness it's just it's not only on Earth that um that's the defensive reason to protect the future of consciousness um then the other big reason I think is that it's exciting and it's it's it's adventurous and it's it's it's inspiring uh it makes it like it makes you think
Paragraph 35
positively about the future you know and and life life can't just be about solving one problem or another that there needs to be reasons to be inspired you know reasons that move your heart and say yes the future is going to be great and when you get out when you wake up in the morning I can't wait to see what happens next and and I think that's you know Humanity going to Mars even if you don't yourself want to go to Mars and most people don't just just watch it it's a tough gig frankly um this was this would not be a luxury Expedition um and uh but but you'd be able to watch it happen and I think it would just be incredibly inspiring to the world in the same way that the Apollo program was inspiring to the world um and like I said there's got to be life
Paragraph 36
can't just be about solving one problem or another we need things that are that make us excited and inspired about the future and that would be one of them foreign ER just for a minute and we'll go back to this stuff which is more interesting to me um I I try to get out of the deal will you follow me back here reminded that scene from The Godfather basically but you told me you wanted to ask tough questions [Laughter] so uh so on Twitter uh what could possibly go wrong so I saw this article says you bought something called Twitter um and it says uh musk puts off lifting Twitter Bans and so obviously the big deal in to me anyway in uh in Twitter is that so we have this incredible it was incredibly poorly managed this business and uh but those guys somehow
Paragraph 37
did great for their shareholders by selling it to us and right but we didn't buy what they're selling we bought something of what it's going to become um yes uh I mean I think it's uh most people would say like you know given how the market has evolved this year the prices on the high side right um right but that's uninvasive what it is yes but in terms of what it what I think there is a tremendous amount of potential um that it will be very difficult to achieve but I think possible and I think ultimately it could be one of the most valuable companies in the world so so when we think about this in order for that to happen in order for that so so I met you and it took me a few years and then I Believe In You and Your Heart Right your heart and so I think
Paragraph 38
you're a skeptical at our first meeting you were a bit skeptical and uh so so the way I think about it is that so I'm trusting you with the future of our country of the world actually when you're in charge of a media like that and so what I think about is so how do you prevent to being Jewish uh how do you prevent this anti-Semitism or if I were black how do you prevent all of these so so how do you prevent the use of the n-word and when I think about Tick Tock and they're able we're just looking at pictures to tell what you're going to do you know you remove your left arm you move your right arm what you other pictures you like that's what they do with their software and they've great their algorithm how can we not have an amazing algorithm because we
Paragraph 39
know more about them to do with Tick Tock and we ought to know what interests people have and uh and and because of that in words we should be able to figure out words that people are using what that means and considering what they content they're interested in we should be able to figure out the software how to moderate this and prevent that from happening is that true or not yeah yes absolutely um totally agree um the I want to be clear but uh you know content moderation policies have not changed uh at Twitter and and it is um not not okay to engage in hateful conduct uh on on Twitter um so um we have had like actually oddly like targeted attacks where temporarily people have been able to put some hate speech on on Twitter but um but then it's been
Paragraph 40
taken down immediately um so now now I don't want to try to achieve with this sort of enabling everyone to be payment verified with with Twitter blue is to try to get as many people payment verified as possible it's only eight bucks a month um although for some people that were complaining about that and these are people who pay more with the net for their latte I'm going to be one of your Twitter review okay thank you thank you um but but like as part of its Revenue part of it is payment authentication and so if somebody uh because there is a huge problem with Spam and and Bots and trolls on on Twitter and organizations trying to manipulate a public opinion and just just generally making the system worse um and I think but I think that there is an answer
Paragraph 41
to that which is to to get as many uh regular users of Twitter to be a subscriber for eight dollars a month and you'll get a lot more than just the blue check mark for eight dollars a month because now we can afford long-form video a long long audio podcasts and we can also start sharing Revenue with with content creators which is essential give them a chance to make money yeah absolutely just so I mean right now if you're on Twitter you'll you'll see a lot of links posted to YouTube and and Tick Tock um and that's because at least until now Twitter is not a lot even given them enough video length to post their video um and then they give the content creators no means of monetizing the video so we're going to change that rapidly at Twitter it's going
Paragraph 42
to be transformative but but if we can get enough verified users and we're going to prioritize um Twitter search replies mentions by verified users first um and and yeah that's okay that's what calls Amplified yes so the so the if you're payment verified with blue check mark then you'll be prioritized um and so this this is the point of this is to make crime not pay um because um because right now to create a bot on Twitter costs less than a penny um so the cost of crime is so cheap and that's part of why crime um and hateful conduct pays but if somebody risks losing even eight bucks that they or you it's too expensive to now have a a hundred thousand fake accounts because they have to spend 800 000 a month um as opposed to you know 800 a month so um
Paragraph 43
and then we also since we're using payment authentication uh we're piggybacking on the authentication system of the payment system and we're also piggybacking off of uh Apple's authentication system which is another layer of security so the the net effect will be over time that the the verified users will be will pretty much always be at the top of of comments and search and you won't really see you'll have to scroll far to see the unverified users which will be the Bots and controls and whatnot and this is sort of analogous to um Google search like um if you go to page eight of Google search there will be a ton of scams and and stuff you know call it page eight page nine something like that um and but the thing is that Google search results are so good
Paragraph 44
for page one that you never go to page eight um so or it's rare and like the old joke is like something we don't want to see it gets pushed way down yeah just basically the the bad stuff gets pushed way down um and and and then crime stops paying and then they stop trying to do all these things and we can recruit them as Engineers to a program for us Crime Guys yeah um so I mean the joke is like what's the best place to hide a dead body would be the second page of Google search results nobody ever goes there so so today we fired uh half of of uh Twitter and uh that should save us what four billion a year no it's not going to say 4 billion a year I wish but um uh so uh I mean to be frank uh Twitter was having pretty serious Revenue challenges and cost
Paragraph 45
challenges um before the acquisition talks started and any company that is dependent on Advertising um has had a hard time so uh if you look at say snap or you know Google Facebook whatnot they've all had a difficult time with advertising Revenue dropping and Twitter is more you know currently more vulnerable than they are to advertising because most of Twitter's advertising is large brand advertising as opposed to direct response so it's kind of like a much more of a discretionary ad spend than it is for uh like if you if you're if you can do direct response for a specific product um so and then we also recently had a lot of difficulty with activist groups pressuring major advertisers to stop spending money on Twitter um this is despite us doing everything
Paragraph 46
possible to appease them and to make it clear that moderation rules and hateful contact rules have not changed uh and we're continuing to enforce them um the a number of major advertisers have stopped spending on Twitter um so those but this is this doesn't seem right because um we've made no change in our operations at all and um but nonetheless the activist groups have been successful in in causing a massive drop in Twitter advertising revenue and we've done our absolute best to appease them and nothing is working so this is a major concern and I think this is frankly an attack on the First Amendment um like if if activist groups can pressure uh advertisers upon which Twitter is fundamentally dependent um to you know suppress Free Speech then that doesn't
Paragraph 47
seem right I mean by the way 400 million instead of 4 billion I meant actually 400 million instead of 4 billion oh yeah okay so so we're now there you're living at this place you go there for the next couple three weeks you're going to devote and then we have a team lined up you think you have a team lined up you're uh to manage it and then you would just do it the same way we do with SpaceX and Tesla where you just attend the meetings regularly say this is what we need to do do it well this is what we need yeah my my workload went up from about I don't know 70 to 80 hours a week to probably 120 .
Paragraph 48
um so yeah I go to sleep I wake up I work go to sleep wake up work do that seven days a week I'll have to do that for a while no choice um but I think once Twitter is set on the right path I think it is a much easier thing to manage than SpaceX or Tesla so um and I I mean I really understand the internet and how to make a so I wrote software wrote software but I wrote software personally for 20 years um you know it's one of the key people behind uh Hey x.
Paragraph 49
com which became PayPal um and so I also like I'm aware of like a and I know how to make a way better PayPal um because you build PayPal yeah yeah pretty much um I mean with a lot of other people but there's there's a product plan I wrote which I wish I'd kept a copy of in July of 2000 where I thought it would be possible to make the most valuable financial institution in the world and we're going to execute that plan from 22 years ago which amazingly no one has done and and so I I think that's what part of why I think Twitter will be ultimately extremely valuable because I'm going to execute the x.
Paragraph 50
com game plan from 22 years ago with some improvements um and um and then we're also going to obviously make Twitter just a way better system um I mean it's a sad to reason that um you know if if the social media company is um is not taking uh steps to and make it positive to be on that social platform then people won't come or they'll leave you know so you speak of sort of anti-Semitism or racism or anything like that well I mean if who's going to stay on a platform if if that's prevalent like that's that's obviously yeah I mean come on and ultimate's inherent wrongness if who's going to stay on the platform um so like you you want to be it needs to be something where um like our goal with Twitter is like how do we get 80 of America maybe not like the
Paragraph 51
sort of far left and the far right but but and maybe we don't want to necessarily but uh how do we get 80 of the public to join a digital Town Square and voice their opinion and exchange ideas and maybe once in a while change their minds um on occasion yeah I mean you know once in a while um so I read also that you said and then we'll move off to Twitter but you said that your goal is you want to make the 20 of people who are on the far right I hate you just like you want to make the 20 of people on the far left hate you so well I I don't want them to hate me um but but I think the extremist like you know it's just very difficult to satisfy extremists um so unless you fully buy into whatever their Dogma is so um but I I'm confident we can satisfy like
Paragraph 52
I don't know 80 of America 80 of the world um and but maybe not the most the 10 most extreme of of of either side and I would count that as a great outcome and I think it I think it is important to have a sort of a a digital Town Square where people feel comfortable talking um where and I also think it's it's like one of the things that's important is to be able to sort of decide what kind of experience you want to have on Twitter um because you know some people always might say okay like I want the like if this was a radio station I want this the easy listening smooth jazz station okay cool but that's good that's so you fail to have that setting for have that setting for Twitter and and uh and then some people might say say like no I want heavy metal
Paragraph 53
thrash and and and like okay so now this is going to be sort of then then you don't mind someone saying mean things to you you know within the context of the law and you don't mind engaging in in vigorous arguments on Twitter and that kind of thing but you should be able to kind of like pick your preference and and decide if if you want sort of full contact battle or or do you want like no I just want to look at puppies and flowers and nice landscapes and stuff so so let's go off Twitter um two other topics uh where you have some questions uh that number one is logistics when we're starting to uh to make so many cars by the end of this year forty thousand forty thousand cars a week I mean I have to be careful of mnpi uh but uh I believe I have said in
Paragraph 54
the past publicly that our aspiration is to reach 40 000 a week by the end of this year so if we're doing that then that means that uh producing a core every 15 seconds yeah and uh so but that's still only uh two million cars a year there's 100 million cars uh that are made a year and so the question so this presumably capacity to be able to Logistics to ship all these cars all over the place to have people pick them up where they want them but but not if they all do them in the same week yes totally so um I mean we're a bit of criticism a bit of criticism from our Q3 results because we um had a lot of cars in transit um and the reason was that we we got too big for our cars to actually be transported in the final few weeks um there weren't enough car
Paragraph 55
carriers and weren't enough ships so but it's actually good it's actually good in the long run um right to to smooth out deliveries and actually have cars and Transit at the end of the quarter uh because then you're not rushing to get everything delivered by the end of the quarter and paying all these expedite fees um so so my question always if we have autonomous driving and we have autonomous trucks is that one of the ideas that we're going to be able to move things around with our own if there's not enough drivers that we're going to have autonomous transport yes that's question one we can also yeah I mean have if you're in the if you're in the area have the car just drive to you right that's one and then the other one is about materials and when all
Paragraph 56
of a sudden so we have somehow navigated supply chain problems from other people and you might have thought that it was the absolute Brilliance that we had to be able to do that but probably the reason is that when you start off and you don't make any cars a year and you go to someone and say we're going to make 20 million cars a year from zero who's going to believe you and make all the equipment that we need so as a result of that we were forced initially to be able to say okay we're going to get you know we're vertically integrate we can't rely on you both do vertically integration and yeah cut it materials I can talk longer if you'd like a message talk a little bit longer materials how so we have geology we anyone wants to show us a mine we got people
Paragraph 57
in Minds to figure who are knowledgeable and they come to us say we can produce this much lithium this much copper this much we are able to assess that and give contracts to be able to say contractual agreements okay and they'll and they'll rely on our agreement other people they won't is that fair and glencore the uh well the scaling constraints change as time goes by and in the beginning we we were just very vertically integrated because suppliers didn't take us seriously um like we could get hardly any of the the a of the best suppliers wouldn't talk to us because the car startup has not been successful in the United States since Chrysler in the third in the 20s I believe they started so it's been a century since a car company was successful in the
Paragraph 58
US that was not not a foreign car company coming in with that was already successful in their home market so but for an American car startup it was the first Tesla's first success in 100 years so you can imagine if you're an auto supplier that doesn't sound like a smart financial decision exactly um so if then we we had to do it just build a lot of the stuff ourselves be vertically integrated or we couldn't couldn't create the car um and and then that ended up being um an asset because now we understood so much about the entire supply chain or what it took to build a car so we were able to design a more integrated uh vehicle uh that that actually um needed far fewer parts and cost less and weighs less and has higher performance but it is looking increasingly
Paragraph 59
light for some of the critical elements of batteries that tells the we'll we'll need to get into the mining business at Mining and refining you know that's why glencore was announced that's where we're talking to glencore we were no and we're we've never contemplated investing in glencore um I'm talking about Tesla doing it ourselves yes uh congratulations more time for some questions from the audience just give me a couple turn in the lights too quick the powers that be I'll do it anyway I mean is it for me or you I don't know questions so by the way if you leave before we give away the uh the door prizes which are two Teslas you're not eligible to get the Teslas but go ahead I gave an extra one once I guess last time but uh we're not going to do that
Paragraph 60
again you got to be in your seat in order to get the Teslas I'm paying for it not to not Elon questions uh Elon Seneca once said every genius has a touch of Madness I thought you'd like that quote but I agree with the madness part um so even with Tesla as a publicly traded company uh I think it's down 40 percent or something from its high is selling at 70 times earnings meanwhile Mercedes-Benz which now produces EVS is selling for six times earnings and yielding five percent why should I invest in Tesla rather than Mercedes-Benz well I actually um rarely try to convince anyone to invest in Tesla and many times I've recommended people don't invest in Tesla and I've said our stock is too high but when people just ignore me and keep buying the stock some
Paragraph 61
reason um so um but if I think at at a very high level I'd say that autonomy is an insanely fundamental breakthrough and and no one is even close to Tesla for solving generalized autonomy or generalized self-driving Vehicles no one's even close um and and with self-driving as I was talking about earlier the car becomes call it roughly five times more useful but it costs the same to build now can you imagine what would happen if a company was doing they were doing like 25 to 30 percent of gross margins but suddenly that same thing was five times more valuable that what would that do to the value of Tesla and the value of that car it boggles the Mind actually um so you know if you think of net present value of future cash flows if you actually do the math
Paragraph 62
on that it's insane um then there's also The Optimist program which is our humanoid robot um which we will leverage our manufacturing expertise and and the intelligence we've developed for self-driving to have a useful humanoid robot um now the the economy is fundamentally GDP per capita times capital if you no longer have a constraint on capita because of a useful humanoid robot it is not clear that there is any limit to the size of the economy [Applause] and these things will actually happen so okay that's probably a good reason that that one more question [Applause] okay this is the last question [Laughter] go ahead given all the cars given all the cars that you're gonna make and uh I hope Ron's right whether it's 10 million or 20 million you're going
Paragraph 63
to need a lot of charging stations around the world yes have you thought about doing it more efficiently and more economically and better for our um ecosystem from an ESG perspective because you may or may not know there are 400 million existing street lights in the world and every street light has pervasive persistent electricity you could take some amount of those street lights which are half owned by utilities and half owned by a cities and repurpose that and that would probably be the most cost efficient way to roll out millions of charging stations all over the world well well thanks I I think they actually are using that idea in London and some other cities but if if I mean I think the the long-term goal for our supercharger stations is that they
Paragraph 64
all have solo like Tesla solo and batteries at them so that they are as many as possible are self-sustaining that the that the supercharger stations generate the energy during the day and then also have a localized battery pack um to so that people can charge at night so that that the Tesla Super supercharging stations would continue to function even in a zombie apocalypse so just never know that's coming one day we know it yes it's just a matter of time thank you very much can I get a selfie with you all right a selfie I posted on Twitter your your arms are longer than mine also uh please use Twitter I'm I and and you're doing this right now and please please subscribe to Twitter verified eight bucks uh and uh actually it's technically at 7.
Paragraph 65
99 so uh slightly less um but I would really encourage everyone here to use Twitter uh and uh and and uh you know uh yeah please do that here we go [Applause]