机器翻译,已尽力保留原意与数字
内容摘要
Ron Baron 在年度 Baron 大会上就 Tesla、自动驾驶、SolarCity 及其长期未来主义展望采访马斯克。
Ron Baron interviews Musk about Tesla, autopilot, SolarCity and his long-term futurist outlook at the annual Baron conference.
中文实录Transcript
119 个段落
第 1 段
早上好。我叫 Gilad Shani,是 Baron Capital 的研究分析师,负责研究科技和能源基础设施行业。我非常荣幸地介绍我们的下一位嘉宾。他是一个从超级反派到超级英雄,什么身份都曾被人冠以的人。他并不满足于改变我们所熟知的世界。他肩负着改变我们银河系的使命。
第 2 段
埃隆·马斯克是 Tesla 的首席执行官,这家公司的使命是加速世界向可持续交通转型。2004年,埃隆是 Tesla 首轮融资的主要投资者。2008年,当公司濒临破产时,埃隆出任首席执行官,并带领其发展到如今超过50亿美元的营收规模。公司开发了3款电动汽车:Roadster、Model S 和 Model X。
第 3 段
Model S 被形容为一款非凡的汽车,它开辟了一条非正统的新道路,也是美国初创企业创造力的有力宣言。最近推出的 Model X,重量时间超过1年。迄今为止,Tesla 已售出将近100,000辆汽车,电动汽车。Tesla 正在建设一座名为 Gigafactory 的电池制造厂,它将比生产 Dreamlininers 的最大波音设施大10倍。
第 4 段
有意思的是,Tesla 是全球最大的电池消费者,超过了三星和苹果等消费电子公司。埃隆是一位科学家、发明家、设计师,也是世界上最具创新力的头脑之一。他正在帮助推进一些世界上最具颠覆性的技术:汽车行业的 Tesla、航空航天行业的 SpaceX,以及电力行业的 Solar City。
第 5 段
现在,请欢迎埃隆和 Ron 进行对谈。那很酷。我刚开始职业生涯时,我最早的一位客户告诉我,最重要的,呃,是找到一个,呃,能够实现梦想、让梦想成真的人。呃,而我的整个职业生涯都在寻找值得投资的人、可以投资的人。呃,我最近和 Eric Schmidt 在一起。他是 Google 的董事长,也是埃隆最好的朋友之一。
第 6 段
而且,呃,他告诉我,他认为埃隆是 Walter Chrysler 和 Thomas Edison 的结合体。在我用 Google 查 Walter Chrysler 之前,我其实对他了解不多,而被拿来和这2个人相比非常有意思。所以,呃,所以、所以,仍然遵循投资于人的理论,呃,所以我们是在投资你,而且,呃,而且、而且我想我们谈的是50亿美元的营收。
第 7 段
呃,我相信你认为这仅仅是最初的开端。所以、所以在我们深入讨论业务之前,我想稍微谈谈你的背景。我们刚才在开始前也谈到了这一点。所以,你来自南非。你父亲是一名工程师。那你母亲呢?嗯,我母亲是一名模特和营养师。你的一个兄弟也和你一起工作。对。我们共同创办了那家邮政公司。
第 8 段
所以、所以埃隆,呃,也曾是创始人,你知道,他做过这些游戏,呃,电子游戏,然后他是 PayPal 的创始人,呃,卖掉了他的企业 PayPal,而 PayPal 被卖掉、上市,7、8亿美元,也以10亿美元卖掉。eBay 最终买下了它,500亿美元。所以想必这对你的思考方式有一些影响。对,当然。嗯,我、我其实,我、我其实反对出售。
第 9 段
我不赞成出售,但,嗯,我当时是,嗯,我、我、我、我是 PayPal 最大的,你知道,股东,但我只有大约12%,所以其他人都非常想卖,于是我们就推进了这件事。嗯,但我认为,嗯,我认为我们可能不该卖。对。嗯,所以、所以我读了你的经历,而且我们显然以前也谈过,还谈到,呃,你对太空、可持续交通和太阳能的兴趣。
第 10 段
这一切是从哪里来的?嗯,呃,我上大学时思考过,嗯,什么会对人类的未来产生最大影响,而且,呃,我希望参与那些领域,至少参与其中一些领域,而且、而且我、我认为会有——我想出了5件事,我认为它们会真正影响我们、我们作为一个文明的未来。嗯,其中之一是互联网。嗯,然后,呃,另一个是,呃,可持续能源。
第 11 段
包括它的生产和消费。第3个是,嗯,让生命成为多行星的。嗯,然后第4和第5个是,呃,遗传学和,呃,以及 AI。嗯,我当时并不认为自己会参与这些领域,我只是在更抽象的层面上认为这些会、会影响事物。
第 12 段
嗯,而且,嗯,但我是说,再往前追溯一点,实际上在我上,呃,高中或者,你知道,呃,初中时,我真的没想过自己会参与创办公司。嗯,我其实原本要、要,嗯,从事某种物理学研究,以物理学为职业,并尝试更多地理解宇宙的本质。
第 13 段
嗯,但,嗯,你知道,后来发生了诸如超导超级对撞机被取消这样的事,我就想,好吧,你知道,如果我被困在某种那样的处境中,然后某个活跃的政府基本上叫停了一切,那么,呃,那、那么我——这一切都会白费。
第 14 段
所以、所以当我想到这件事,它是汽车,因此显然,你知道,如果你使用碳氢化合物并燃烧它们,破坏环境,那就会让人很难在地球上生活,而且它被指出了,除非我们适应并能开始呼吸二氧化碳。所以、所以、所以、所以,那就是你在这方面的努力。
第 15 段
但对,实际上,事情是,嗯,在、在大学时,嗯,我当时对可持续能源的兴趣纯粹、当时确实是出于这样一个角度:我们最终会把可以开采和燃烧的碳氢化合物用尽。所以地下的石油供应显然、显然、显然是有限的,嗯,而且、而且最终我们将不得不转向某种可持续的东西。
第 16 段
嗯,因为当我们从地下抽取石油时,我们、我们本质上是在取用积累的,呃,太阳能,这些能量被束缚在植物和动物中,然后经过数亿年,呃,转化成了石油。嗯,而且、而且、而且那、那显然是有限的。而如果,呃,我们、如果我们、如果我们耗尽了它,却没有一个好的解决方案,那么无论是否存在环境问题,都会发生经济崩溃。
第 17 段
嗯,所以那实际上正是某种程度上引发我对可持续能源兴趣的原因。呃,而且这有点是“图奥洛吉科”的。我的意思是,如果、如果,你知道,能源要长期维持下去,就需要是可持续的。嗯,然后随着时间推移,事情变得很明显:实际上还有一个更紧迫的问题,就是我们正在非常实质性地改变海洋和大气的化学构成。
第 18 段
嗯,而人类在世界各地发展起来的方式是,嗯,你知道,我们把如此多的、如此多的城市、定居点和城镇都建在海岸线旁。嗯,而且,呃,你知道,而且、而且世界在这些、这些化学平衡方面是相当脆弱的。
第 19 段
所以,如果、如果我们真的把数万亿吨,呃,深埋在地下的 CO2 挖出来,而它在很多情况下从前坎布里安时代起就一直埋在那里,嗯,你知道,当时最复杂的东西也就是类似海绵的生物,那么这会是、会是一项糟糕的实验。所以、所以这看起来如此显而易见,而我们有这么多汽车公司,每年生产这么多燃烧汽油的汽车,却没有人想做任何事。但为什么?为什么?为什么?
第 20 段
所以,这太显而易见了,你知道,你在证据中读到,而且 Exon 还因为他们对环境造成的影响登上了报纸,而他们把它掩盖起来,就像196年的烟草公司一样。完全一样的事,对吧?这是、这是同一套、同一套操作手册。
第 21 段
事实上,疯狂的是,嗯,我建议读一读《Merchants of Doubt》这本书,嗯,因为他们实际上探究了,嗯,JPL 和、和、和其他地方的一些科学家——某种程度上探究了,好吧,这里发生了什么?他们实际上发现,呃,我是说,石油和天然气行业实际上用的就是与烟草行业完全相同的说客。具体到名字都是同一批人,甚至不只是同一家事务所。不可思议。比如有些家伙还在、他们还在干。
第 22 段
不可思议。嗯,对。所以,我是说,而且、而且就像他们学会怎么做时。对,当然。嗯,而且、而且后来,呃,很奇怪的是,我参与制作的唯一一部电影是一部名叫《Thank You for Smoking》的电影,呃,我推荐大家观看。它算是一部有趣的电影。
第 23 段
嗯,而且、而且你——但是、但是它某种程度上,嗯,它、它改编自 Buckley 的书,而且它,呃,它、它、它、它确实触及了问题的真相,也就是这一切究竟是如何、如何发生的。嗯,而他们所做的本质上是利用怀疑。
第 24 段
嗯,所以即使你面对的是这样一种情况:地球上几乎每一位科学家,呃,都同意这是,你知道,全球变暖确实存在,向,嗯,大气和海洋中增加数十亿吨碳是、是一个坏主意。
第 25 段
然后有百分之几的人表示异议,而、而这件事向公众呈现的方式,并不是说,你知道,97%或98%的科学家认为我们的所作所为很疯狂,而是、而是简单地说科学家存在分歧。科学家对一切都有分歧。好吗?你找不到在任何事情上达成一致的100%的科学家。嗯,所以,但是、但是这是一个非常不诚实的论点。
第 26 段
所以、所以、所以我理解这一点,然后我去参观你的工厂,而且我去过那里——现在每3或4个月去一次,而我猜华尔街的分析师中没有多少人去过,尽管有22个人发布关于 Tesla 的报告。我认为实际上去过那里的人很少,而几乎没有人和你谈过。
第 27 段
但后来,当我走进工厂,我看到——而且我也去过其他汽车工厂——那里有很多人,机器没那么多;而我看到我们在 Tesla 的工厂,我看到很多机器,人没那么多。呃,我看着它,觉得它对我来说简直是一项艰巨无比的任务。你是怎么建造出这样一个东西的?你怎么可能认为自己会成功?为什么,你为什么要做这样一件事?
第 28 段
而且一开始,你是个贫穷的移民孩子。你来到这里,然后你做——你是怎么做到的?那是怎么成功的?呃,当然。嗯,我是说,Tesla 刚开始时,嗯,我并不认为我们会成功。我以为我们几乎肯定会失败。嗯,而你把在 PayPal 挣到的所有钱都投入了这件事,而且你认为自己会失败。对。
第 29 段
嗯,我是说,我、我可以——我可以给你讲讲基本逻辑,我是说,怎么说呢,嗯,从 PayPal 出来时,我很幸运地拥有大约1.8亿美元。嗯,我想,好吧,那、那是一大笔钱。嗯,你知道,如果、如果、如果我要把其中一半分配给 SpaceX、Tesla 和 Solar City,我还会剩下另一半,而且我会没事。
第 30 段
嗯,而且,对,但你告诉你妻子,如果事情没成功,你们就住在她父母家的地下室。我确实说了。对。我当时——对。希望是在开玩笑,因为那就像——她父母家的地下室并不、不太好。真的不太好。呃,对。所以,呃,对。对,她不喜欢这个说法。
第 31 段
嗯,但、但是,我是说,事情的发展方式——所以我当时想,对,你知道,所以我估计自己可能会赔掉这笔钱,但我们,你知道,好好尝试一下,而且这件事相当重要,嗯,值得去做;但、但是随着时间推移,这些公司需要更多资金,然后我们遭遇了0809年那场非常艰难的经济衰退,嗯,那对汽车行业极其糟糕。我是说,GM 和 Chrysler 都破产了。
第 32 段
呃,所以我当时想,天啊,呃,如果、如果我不投入一切——如果、如果我投入一切,那就有、有一个机会,嗯,而我们会、会活下来。如果我不投入一切,就没有任何机会。所以,如果不是那场经济衰退,这东西根本不可能存在。能够以5000万美元买下一座价值10亿美元的工厂。哦,确实。但那是、那是稍晚些时候发生的。不过对,嗯,但真正关键的事情是、是2008年。
第 33 段
嗯,甚至可以说,如果从2007年年中算到2009年年中,那、那2年时期极其糟糕。嗯,而且我们在 Tesla 创立初期犯了太多错误,以至于我们基本上不得不在2007年几乎彻底为公司进行资本重组。嗯,因为我是说,我们所做的几乎每一个决定都是错的。
第 34 段
嗯,所以,而且、而且当我们创办公司时,而且、而且这里我必须把最初的功劳归于,嗯,呃,AC Propulsion,那是南加州一家很小、很小的公司,他们制造了一辆电动跑车。嗯,而它实际上基于、基于、基于 AC Propulsion 的某种想法,但我当时试图说服 AC Propulsion 将一款电动跑车商业化。
第 35 段
呃,把他们做出的这种原型商业化,但他们对此毫无兴趣。嗯,而且,呃,过了一段时间,我厌倦了试图说服他们。于是我说:“听着,我就自己来做这件事。”然后他们说:“嗯,你知道,还有其他一些人也想做。你想加入他们吗?”我说:“好吧,那我们、我们就这么做。”嗯,而且,呃,但那些人没有得到足够的认可。
第 36 段
他们、他们,呃,在 Tesla 之前就用电动跑车做出了一些很酷的东西。所以,那就是、那就是你当时在考虑,我们应该使用发动机加电动,还是应该只使用电动?哦,不。那、那是、那是一辆纯电动跑车。嗯,我是说,Tesla 的整个故事相当复杂,其中就像有很多集肥皂剧,可以根据它拍出来。
第 37 段
嗯,不过,不过不是,那个 AC Propulsion 曾制造过一辆,嗯,纯电动跑车,呃,叫 T0,嗯,算是一个演示品。呃,但他们就是没兴趣把自己的东西商业化。于是,嗯,我就说:“好吧,听着,这确实需要……我们需要向大众展示电动汽车能做什么。”所以,嗯,最后就和一群人走到了一起,试图把这个想法商业化。
第 38 段
所以,我们再回到这座工厂,也就是我们如今位于加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特的这座巨大工厂。对。我从没想过我们会拥有这座工厂,但它是个了不起的地方。对。而令人惊叹的是,它好像已经差不多满了,我是说,当我……当我们进去时,我们觉得,就像我们最初得到那座工厂时,它是世界上最大的工厂之一。嗯,我想按占地面积来说大概是这样。
第 39 段
我是说,我想它可能是第3或第4大,有多少……多少平方英尺?550万平方英尺。550万。对。那大概是多少英亩?你是说屋顶下的面积?150英亩。对,没错。嗯,它是一座通用汽车大楼。给你一个参照,通用汽车大楼,也就是苹果商店所在的那栋楼,那一个街区,是1英亩。这里是150英亩。对,太疯狂了。
第 40 段
你可以在里面露营。嗯,而且,嗯,比如从一边走到另一边要花很长时间。嗯,我们在工厂里放了自行车,这样你就能稍微快一点到处走。嗯,而且在我们最初得到这个的时候,嗯,其实时间稍晚一点。那是在,嗯,2010年初。嗯,而且,呃,我们当时想,天啊,我们绝不可能得到那座、那座、那座了不起的工厂,因为,嗯,你知道,它实在太贵了。
第 41 段
嗯,而且我们没多少钱,我们没多少钱。但后来由于经济衰退,嗯,这座由,呃,通用汽车和丰田共同拥有的工厂,嗯,他们决定把它关闭。嗯,而这背后的故事是一个与 Tesla 无关的、挺长的故事。所以他们准备把它关掉,它就会一直空着,而且他们好像可能会把它改成商场或类似的东西。
第 42 段
嗯,而且,但它会空置很长时间,嗯,而且,而且,不管怎样,所以,所以我们算是找到了,呃,丰田,对他们说,听着,嗯,你知道,我们会从你们手里接过它,你知道,呃,然后,嗯,然后,呃,而且我们还做了许多其他战略事项;我们与丰田开展的战略事项其实是相互独立的。我们还做了一个电动 RAV 4 项目,然后丰田也,嗯,在首次公开募股时进行了一笔投资。
第 43 段
嗯,所以,而且他们在 IPO 时以5000万美元、以5000万美元、以每股17美元的价格进行了投资。所以这对他们来说结果不错。嗯,但,嗯,但我们很惊讶他们愿意继续推进,呃,而且、而且真的去做。嗯,而且,呃,但对当时的我们而言,Tesla 实在太小了。
第 44 段
我是说,这就像,想象一下,你们就像这么一支小队伍、这么一个小团体,然后好像有人说:“嗯,有这么一艘巨大的、像外星无畏舰一样的东西,你们可以,你知道,以原价的零头买下来,而你们完全不知道它怎么运作。”然后你会说,就像,控制装置在哪……在哪里?你要怎么……怎么使用这个东西?
第 45 段
嗯,而那就是我们,嗯,我们很幸运,能在汽车工厂不怎么值钱的时候把它买下来。所以,这个计划最终将能够每年生产50万辆汽车。我想,我想是50万辆汽车,而且,你知道,我们可以想象超过50万辆,不过,但那其实并不是梦想。我是说,从长期来看,我想,我想我们希望努力生产数百万辆汽车。
第 46 段
嗯,对,我是说,从产量角度看,但我们今年正在生产50,000辆,明年是75,000辆。我们谈的是数百万辆。而且,但想想大众汽车的1,000万辆、丰田的1,000万辆、通用汽车的800万或900万辆。利润率只是我们认为自己能做到的一小部分。我们为什么不能比他们更大?嗯,我是说,我想,我是说,那很有可能。并非不可能。
第 47 段
嗯,我认为随着时间推移,如果我们继续,如果我们打造出优秀的产品,嗯,并让成本结构,呃,保持竞争力,嗯,那么我想,呃,你知道,谁知道最终会……所以我们会需要很多这样的工厂。是的。事实上需要许多工厂、许多汽车工厂,我认为还需要许多超级工厂。那么超级工厂,我们就谈这个。到内华达州的超级工厂。对。而它们,而且这是40亿、50亿。
第 48 段
我们预计,要达到全面生产,大致需要一笔50亿美元的,呃,资本投资。嗯,不过随着时间推移,Tesla 将向你提供其中大约50%到60%,嗯,然后我们的战略合作伙伴,比如松下和其他一些伙伴,将提供另外大约一半,之后内华达州给了我们10亿美元,或者是税收抵免、节省额之类的东西。嗯,整个税收抵免的说法让我抓狂。
第 49 段
嗯,听起来我们得把它退回去。对,它听起来比实际情况好得多。嗯,所以其实我第一次听说金额是13亿,是在宣布这笔交易的新闻发布会上,我当时想,真的吗,我们是怎么算到1.3的?嗯,我们实际得到的是,嗯,内华达州给了我们,呃,一些免费土地。嗯,但是,但是内华达州有很多土地。所以这并不是一种稀缺的东西,就像沙漠。
第 50 段
嗯,对,内华达州有很多土地。内华达州,嗯,正如我说的。嗯,然后他们还同意修建一条连接公路,在南行方向,呃,连接卡森城,但他们本来就打算这么做,所以我不认为这应该被计入他们给我们的东西里。
第 51 段
嗯,比如,嗯,然后他们重新调整了,嗯,我想,呃,我不知道,原本要给类似保险公……保险公司之类机构的8,000万美元税收抵免。他们把那项额度改给了我们。呃,但是,呃,那是我们唯一真正能够变现的某种东西。嗯,然后,嗯,而且,而且他们还在,嗯,工厂设备的销售税和使用税方面给予了我们减免。
第 52 段
呃,根据具体属于哪种,呃,情况,销售税和使用税减免期是10年或20年。嗯,所以,但是,所以如果你假设我们充分利用销售税和使用税减免,而这要求建造……要求在20年内实际投入超过50亿美元的资本设备,再把所有这些加起来,合计就是13亿,1。
第 53 段
3,对,不,实际上,内华达州对工厂,嗯,也就是超级工厂的初始投入,实际不到5%。然后他们……然后他们在20年间的投入约为1%。所以,所以想必对他们来说这是一笔很棒的交易,因为他们得到了很多就业岗位。哦,对州政府而言,这是一个不会亏损的方案。
第 54 段
我是说,呃,你知道,俗话说,庄家永远会赢,而且内华达州懂庄家这一套。好吧,内华达州就是庄家。
第 55 段
所以,我们真正能让销售税、使用税抵免变得有意义的唯一方式,就是,呃,我们拥有数量极其庞大的机器和数量极其庞大的操作这些机器的人,而这对内华达州有利;他们的计算是,他们,他们会,他们的税收抵免回报会在80到100之间,不是百分比,是倍,倍。所以这就像,这是一笔,对州政府而言很划算的交易。
第 56 段
所以,嗯,所以,所以电池工厂,那就是超级工厂,呃,它正在建设,呃,没有太多……据我了解,完全没有,呃,让公众看到我们正在那座工厂内部做什么。而且有些记者……对,会有一些,但到目前为止……对。对。而且我想,大约2周或3周前,有些记者,呃,偷偷闯入了我们的地盘。对。而且还撞倒了我们的2个人,企图杀死我们,杀死我们的人。
第 57 段
嗯,对,那太疯狂了。嗯,有点,嗯,为什么?嗯,我想他们只是有点过分热切了,然后,然后我,我猜他们惊慌了,并不是真的想杀死我们的员工,但是,但是他们确实撞倒了我们的2名……2名员工,也就是,你知道,当时他们正试图……他们正试图逃走。
第 58 段
嗯,呃,所以他们撞倒了我们的2个人,而且幸运的是,伤势并不太严重,但是,嗯,但是对,那样真的很不妥。嗯,所以,所以你知道,所以,所以我们认为,不让任何人看到我们在里面做什么足够重要,而其他人正试图弄清楚发生了什么,而且显然不是夜总会。
第 59 段
而且,呃,所以,所以是什么……所以我所想的是,由于我不太了解技术以及事物如何运作,所以我们制造的是那种电池。锂。锂。对。不过,锂这个统称涵盖很多种化学体系。我是说,嗯,以锂作为离子传输载体的电池种类范围非常广。所以无论你在这里讲什么,我都会听不懂。
第 60 段
但我的问题是,当我们进行这样的投资时,我们怎么知道自己在那座工厂里建造的东西会持续存在?还有,为什么在100年里,所以我们会做各种各样的事情。把东西送出大气层、送出银河系、送出宇宙,飞机,还有,还有,呃,然而100年来,我们一直没能制造出续航超过300英里的电池。所以,这怎么可能?
第 61 段
我们怎么……怎么可能一直没能在这上面花钱?而如果情况是这样,因为一直没人关注它,而突然间我们出现并开始关注,我们会努力减轻现有电池的重量,或许使用硅,并把300英里的电池提高到1,000英里。哦,对。那么我们如何才能不担心自己正在建造的东西也会过时呢?
第 62 段
嗯,原因是,在这个时候,我认为我们,我们对世界上所有的“维特拉里”技术都有相当充分的了解。嗯,比如可能有某个小实验室正在极度保密。嗯,但是,呃,但一般来说,发明电池技术的人首先会尝试接洽 Tesla,因为我们是世界上最大的锂离子消费者。
第 63 段
所以,任何想制造电池并且有新想法的人,都会先来找我们,然后才会去其他地方。比如我们会是他们最大的客户。所以,如果有人发明了某种东西,显然会选择将它授权给 Tesla。嗯,所以,嗯,而且,而且,而且我们努力尽可能认真地对待这些东西,你知道,但我是说,我们目前跟踪着,呃,全球大约60项开发改进型电池的不同工作。
第 64 段
嗯,而且,你知道,其中一些在长期内显现出某些希望,但是,呃,我们……而且,但我们会按1到5给它们全部评级。嗯,其中5意味着我们应该和他们开展业务,1意味着完全是胡扯。嗯,有多少个5?没有5。嗯,有一些,有一些3。呃,目前没有……没有一个达到……甚至没有一个达到4。比如有一些可能会从3升到4。
第 65 段
4意味着我们应该……我们应该进入类似初步讨论的阶段。那么技术上会发生什么变化,让我们能够拥有这种不同的……我们会不会在10年后拥有某种不同寻常的电池,能够行驶1,000英里,而且重量比现在更轻?我认为我们不会获得那么大的改进。
第 66 段
嗯,而且,而且,而且实际上,我认为最有可能的是,我们不会……比如,严格来说,现在如果让我们制造一辆续航500英里的汽车,以目前、目前的电池,我们现在绝对可以做到,呃,但是,但是成本会太高,而且对车辆有效载荷的影响会太大。所以你必须……我们必须在后备厢以及前面、前备厢和后备厢,呃,塞入电池。
第 67 段
嗯,我们将不得不稍微挤占一点乘客空间。但让我们现在制造一辆续航500英里的汽车,完全没问题。嗯,以当前,呃,外形规格制造一辆续航500英里的汽车,嗯,我认为那,你知道,可能不到10年就能实现,你知道,体积相同,质量大致相同。而我们要把每千瓦时成本从250降到100。那是因为我们正在做什么?
第 68 段
那只是因为我们在扩大规模,因为我们在使用不同的材料。因为我们在改变化学体系。我们怎么做到的?对。所以,我们,我们正在大幅提升整个电池包的能量密度。所以,有电芯能量密度,然后当你把这些电芯组合成一个电池包时,你必须弄清楚如何安全地做到这一点。嗯,我们能够降低电池包的能量密度。
第 69 段
所以,我认为我们会在,在电池包能量密度方面取得相当显著的改进。嗯,但但真正最重要的是成本。嗯,因为我是说,对许多驾驶 Model S 的人来说,嗯,你知道,现在的车型,比如,呃,双电机 Model S,在时速65英里时,目前续航会超过300米。嗯,所以对大多数人来说,那,那已经远远足够了。
第 70 段
它是,然后你还有超级充电桩,可以非常,你知道,非常快速地充电。呃,我们现在的超级充电网络已经遍布全国。你可以,我们的许多客户确实会利用超级充电网络进行洛杉矶到纽约之类的,嗯,跨越全国的旅行。
第 71 段
所以实际上,到这个时候,你已经拥有出行自由了,嗯,当然,对电池包续航里程进行渐进式改进很重要,但真正重要的是降低每千瓦时的成本。
第 72 段
嗯,所以这个,而且我们可以用现有的来做到,我们可以,是的,是的,是的,我们也会对基础电芯化学体系做出一些,呃,技术改进,嗯,当然还会改进,呃,电池模块和电池包的组织方式,但,呃,根本重点是,嗯,单位能量的成本,而,呃,那就是,所以,所以那就是超级工厂的意义。它,它,它是把规模经济,嗯,推进到我们所能想象的尽可能远的程度,推进到一个非常极端的水平,尽我们所能。
第 73 段
是这个让它降到 100,还是这个让它低于 100,抱歉,100 什么,每千瓦 100 美元。哦。嗯,我们,嗯,不能评论确切的价格数字,但但但我是说,那并非,那,那,那大约,你知道,它,那处于我们目标的大致范围内。嗯,而且,而且,而且这一点是,通过超级工厂把本质上的每千瓦时成本至少降低 30%,这很重要。
第 74 段
而我们的愿望当然是让每千瓦时成本的降幅超过 30%。
第 75 段
为了让 Model 3 实现 50% 的成本降低,它是一款小约 20% 的汽车,嗯,所以在续航相同的情况下,需要少 20% 的,纯粹,你知道,能量,那,那意味着,为了达到完整的 50%,我们还需要另外 30 个百分点来自规模经济,嗯,我,我其实非常有信心我们能实现这一点,嗯,而且,而且在超级工厂,我们正在把电池包的生产整合起来,一直从,从原材料开始,所以确实有车,车从,从矿山运进来,就像装载着矿山原材料的铁路货车,然后出来的是完全成品的电池包。
第 76 段
嗯,而这实际上以前从未有人做过。呃,所以这,至少对电池来说是这样。嗯,而,呃,我们在这个过程中能够,能够,能够,能够做的,是大幅改善,电芯和电池包的,的,的成本。
第 77 段
嗯,因为如今,如果你追踪原材料从被开采出来时起的流动,它们,它们会在世界各地经历各种精炼步骤,最终被装进一个电芯,然后那个电芯最终被装进一个模块和一个电池包,再装进一辆汽车,然后交付给某个人。那个,那个,那个原材料,来自矿山的那个分子,要像这样绕世界旅行 3 次。这,这真的很疯狂。
第 78 段
嗯,而且在这个过程中,甚至还有一些步骤,嗯,它首先被转化成一种。所以这对,是一个很大的机会,巨大的,巨大的。
第 79 段
所以,所以其中一件事是,杰弗里·卡岑伯格是一个和我关系不错的人,而在1周前、2周前或1个月前,他开着他的Tesla汽车时发生了一场广为报道的事故,呃,当时有人开着一辆大型SUV闯过交通信号灯,以呃每小时40英里的速度撞上了他,他说,呃,Tesla汽车救了他的命,而且他说,我猜是因为溃缩区,而且,而且他说,那简直是最令人惊叹的事情。
第 80 段
所以,所以这里有这么一个知名人士,带来了很好的宣传。然后互联网上有些内容说,呃,有人当时正开着车往前走,一辆车就要撞上他们,而那辆车,他没有看到它,但车看到了,并停了下来,转过去,然后停下。对吧。而且,而且所以,所以这里我们有这种安全性,一辆比其他汽车安全得多的车。是的。而且,呃,汤姆·普里斯克,我想你认识他。
第 81 段
而且,呃,他的妈妈辛迪,呃,汤姆说,汤姆,汤姆已经60多岁了,而且,呃,他的妈妈辛迪,我,我不知道该怎么说,我猜她不会说自己多大年纪,但她超过60多岁了。于是他把自己的车开到她家,她说:“我喜欢这辆车。”于是她就把车留下了。所以,所以对我而言,其中一件有意思的事情是,你只是谈到安全,但你并没有真正说,你知道,你的宣传并没有说这是有史以来最安全的汽车。
第 82 段
我的意思是,我知道你这么说,但这难道不是一个令人难以置信的机会吗,呃,可以通过宣传来改变购买我们汽车的人群构成,让更多的辛迪购买辛迪·普里斯克斯,而不是汤姆,或者说不是汤姆的孩子们?嗯,是的,很高兴你提到这一点。事实上,嗯,在设计 Model S 和 Model X 时,呃,安全是我们绝对至高无上的目标。
第 83 段
嗯,而且你知道,我是说,我的、我的,我是说,我觉得很显然我的家人会坐这辆车,我的朋友也会。嗯,如果、如果、如果我没有尽一切可能最大限度地提高安全性,而出了什么问题,我会无法原谅自己。所以,嗯,所以我们、我们在安全方面投入了大量时间,嗯,而且、而且、而且、而且整辆车的架构都是为了、为了实现最高安全性。嗯,而且、而且、而且我们、我们在这里有物理规律站在我们这边,这一点非常、非常重要。
第 84 段
呃,所以,这个,我就简短说一下,为什么这辆车确切地说是安全的,因为你会听到汽车是五星级之类的说法,但我的意思是,这个五星并不是一个实际的统计数字,就像统计……你知道,安全统计数据实际上不是用星级来衡量的,它们,嗯,有一个实际的受伤概率,呃,这才是最重要的数字。还有,还有受伤的概率。
第 85 段
嗯,你,你可以查到。它在交通部网站上有点分散,但他们有每一款车的数据。对。每一辆、每一辆车都有一个综合受伤概率。嗯,而 Model S,嗯,即使我们是在3年前做的,它仍然,呃,是所有接受过测试的汽车中受伤概率最低的。嗯,而这还只是被动安全方面。然后我们也有主动安全。
第 86 段
嗯,而,嗯,原因基本上是,因为这辆车前部没有一个巨大的钢制发动机缸体,所以我们既有前备厢,也有后备厢,因为电动机非常小,实际上与车轴同轴。所以,当发生高速正面碰撞时,呃,真正重要的是力作用的距离。
第 87 段
你知道,这就像从很高的地方跳进游泳池,如果你,你知道,如果你从高台跳水板之类的地方跳进游泳池,嗯,你会想要一个很深、而且里面没有石头的游泳池。嗯,而且,而且其实没那么复杂。汽车也是一样。
第 88 段
而人们没有意识到的是,他们会觉得,钢制发动机缸体是在保护你,但其实,当你撞上什么东西时,你正以每小时60英里的速度行驶。所以重要的是让你停下来。而那段减速距离极其重要。嗯,或者换一种说法,溃缩区的长度极其重要。
第 89 段
而Model S前部的溃缩区是其他任何豪华轿车的2到3倍,这意味着,呃,冲击衰减能力也是2到3倍。嗯,那么任何有家人的人都会想买一辆这样的车,而不是汽油车。绝对如此。肯定的。嗯,我是说,如果这个,嗯,如果如果安全是需要考虑的问题,我肯定会,我是说,这在客观上就是事实。
第 90 段
它,它绝对是最安全的汽车。嗯,呃,杰弗里遭遇的那起事故中,他被一辆SUV从侧面撞上。嗯,所以那是一起侧面碰撞。S在侧面碰撞中的表现远胜于其他汽车,原因是它的主要结构部件是底板里的电池包。
第 91 段
所以,平面图中的电池包实际上就像一块大型抗剪板,呃,把侧面碰撞产生的载荷传递到车身其余部分。所以,所以在侧面碰撞中,整辆车都会,都会向侧面移动。嗯,但是汽油车的情况是,同样,因为前面有一大块钢制发动机缸体,绝大部分质量都集中在前部。
第 92 段
所以你就会有,嗯,而且而且而且汽车其余部分相对薄弱。基本上,汽车侧面和汽车底板上只有,嗯,只是,呃,薄薄的金属板。所以,呃,对于汽油车来说,侧面碰撞产生的载荷向车身其余质量部分传递的效果,嗯,很弱,因此侧面碰撞距离会大幅增加。
第 93 段
嗯,最终的最终结果是,你在侧面碰撞中要安全得多。嗯,那么,那么我再问几个问题,然后就开放给其他所有人提问。
第 94 段
但是,关于,呃,安全、SpaceX和Uber,那么,那么安全方面,所有这些其他汽车公司接连出现安全问题,不只是这个排放问题,还有刹车问题和IGN问题,呃,抱歉,呃,对,排放问题,不只是刹车和电池的问题,抱歉,呃,是汽油箱的问题,嗯,为什么,所以当我们已经有一辆,呃,既在破坏大气、此外又不那么安全的汽车时。
第 95 段
为什么你认为人们没有更快地采用我们的技术,而我们已经提出免费把这项技术给他们?哦,你是说包括专利在内的一切?对。嗯,实际上,我认为有许多公司正在使用这些专利。所以已经开始了。对。对。绝对如此。那么这是一个。第2个问题是,呃,呃,太空,SpaceX,我们稍后再回到Uber。那么SpaceX。
第 96 段
所以,我小时候,有一档叫《Captain Video》的电视节目,呃,在第5频道。火箭会升空,绕一圈再回来,然后到了1960年代,我们开始去外面,你知道,进入轨道并前往月球,呃,而火箭升空时,各级会一级接一级地脱落,就像,你知道,而当时发生这种情况时,我的第一个想法是,我真的不明白为什么会这样。
第 97 段
当然。而现在你的想法是,嘿,这艘火箭飞船会保持完整,我们可以飞行99次,而不是1次,大概就是这样,因此我们可以用以前1%或2%或3%的成本来做到。为什么以前没有人想到这一点?呃,其实在,嗯,火箭行业,人们很久以来一直考虑,呃,可重复使用。
第 98 段
嗯,而,嗯,只是碰巧地球引力相当强,而且,嗯,使用一次性火箭将合理的有效载荷送入轨道也只是勉强可行。嗯,所以,如果再加入可重复使用能力,嗯,那往往会使送入轨道的有效载荷变成负数。所以你没法——那你要怎么做?所以你必须做两件事。
第 99 段
嗯,你必须,呃,真正推进火箭本身的核心技术,包括发动机、箭体,嗯,航空电子设备,嗯,回收系统,嗯,比如着陆支腿,呃,以及,呃,返程助推能力。嗯,你,你必须,嗯,把火箭做到这样:如果它采用纯一次性模式,就能将其质量中大约4%或略高于4%的有效载荷送入轨道。
第 100 段
而,而,为了让大家有个概念,火箭通常能将其质量中约2%的有效载荷送入轨道。所以这个数字非常小。嗯,但,但如果,如果说你能在一次性使用的情况下,把那个2%左右推高到更接近,呃,4%,然后让重复使用的实施方式真正高效,使重复使用带来的损失可能只有其中的一半,那么你仍然能将净值为2%的有效载荷送入轨道。
第 101 段
那,那基本上就是实现可重复使用所需要的。嗯,而且,嗯,而且,我是说,SpaceX到现在已经为此努力了13年。嗯,而我们还没有实现它。所以,嗯,而我,所以我认为我们迄今所做的是渐进式的,而不是革命性的,但我认为我们已经离目标不远了。我认为在,嗯,我认为在未来一年内,我们将能够,呃,让火箭完整着陆。我们将能够让火箭着陆,只是并不完整。
第 102 段
就像,如果你想看的话,YouTube上有一些很刺激的视频。嗯,而且,呃,但,但我认为我们,我们已经接近让它保持完整了。嗯,然后火箭回来后,我们需要检查它,看看哪些地方需要加强,哪些地方我们加强过度了,哪些地方不需要增加那么多质量,然后我们就能够实现火箭的,呃,可重复使用。
第 103 段
嗯,而且,而且,就像其中一些事情或许并不——对于那些不熟悉火箭行业的人来说,它们并不明显,但我们的火箭,制造它的成本是6000万美元。而,但推进剂、燃料、氧气等的成本只有大约,呃,250,000美元。哇。嗯,或者大约300,000美元左右。但基本上,呃,嗯,是的,它,它的成本只和,比如说,给一架747加满燃料差不多。好的。
第 104 段
我最后一个问题,呃,是关于Uber。所以我听了你的电话会议,呃,有人问我们是否能像Uber一样,我不会问你这个,但,但这个问题被问过很多次了。是的。因为你总是说无法对此置评。还没准备好在这个领域发布任何消息。
第 105 段
但我的问题是,还有另一家公司,它比Uber小得多,叫Lyft,而,呃,我猜Carl Icon是它的投资者,我想Len Botnik也是,所以我的问题是,Uber的业务有什么特点,呃,能让它们免受Lyft的攻击?Lyft有机会对抗Uber吗?哦,哇。我对那个领域确实不算专家。
第 106 段
我——它们是不是拥有某种规模,使任何人都不可能与它们竞争,这其实才是我的问题。我,我,我认为可能,呃,我认为可——我是说,这是,我,我没花过时间思考这个问题,但我的印象——这是一个置信度很低的印象——是,Uber和yft都有发展空间。是的,这就是我,我能看出来的。呃,好的。那么,那么埃隆现在会回答一些问题。可以吗?
第 107 段
是的,当然。没问题。而且,呃,然后之后,呃,我相信,你知道,商场那里有几辆Tesla,我不会因为卖掉它们而拿佣金,但,但,呃,如果你报名参加,呃,一次试驾,然后我们知道了,那么我们会送你一份,一份礼物,所以你之后可以拿到。但现在先提问。
第 108 段
哦,我应该提一下,我,我想刚刚有人提醒了我,嗯,实际上,对于今天没办法试驾的任何人,呃,我们其实安排了一个特别的,呃,VIP网址,嗯,就,就给你们,呃,也就是tesla. com/baron。哇。酷。是的。所以,就是,呃,是的。谢谢。6号。你好。嗯,前几天晚上,我有幸试驾了一辆棒极了的,嗯,一辆S。
第 109 段
所以,呃,那是在纽约市的车流中开了5分钟,但很棒。耶。嗯,我知道你目前没有过多谈论Model 3,但我只是好奇,对于驾驶一辆约35,000美元的Model 3,相比驾驶一辆Model S的体验,你愿意透露些什么。当然。嗯,我们的意图是,Model S和X将是某种高档的高端汽车。嗯,我们会努力在S和X上率先采用新技术。
第 110 段
嗯,所以,呃,那,那将是S和X的优势。呃,但,但,3会是,嗯,一个更小的版本。所以可能小约20%,呃,尺寸可与,比如说,宝马3系或奥迪A4相当。嗯,而且,嗯,但它,它会有与S非常相似的感觉。嗯,所以它会算是拥有出色的加速性能,嗯,良好的驾驶感受、良好的操控性,嗯,而且就车辆的尺寸而言,呃,拥有很大的载货空间。
第 111 段
嗯,是的,我应该提一下,比如S,因为它,呃,前面有一个行李厢,后面也有一个行李厢。嗯,S的实际载货空间比外部尺寸相同的典——比一辆汽油车多出50%到100%。是我吗?就是你。非常感谢你加入我们。我觉得这太棒了。
第 112 段
我想,呃,我和在场的其他所有人一样,很享受听到,你知道,你的分享,而你确实是一位有远见的人。我有一个观察。呃,我们有一家很喜欢的餐厅,它就在门外安装了大约6个,呃,Tesla充电站。好的,那是一家不错的餐厅,但我注意到它们总是满的。所有那些充电站都是满的。
第 113 段
而且想到这种绝佳的协同效应,你知道,有一家餐厅,我有充电站,现在我能获得额外的生意。所以,我希望他们付钱让你安装这些,这些充电站。但我,我有,你知道,我想谈的是一个技术问题。我读到一篇关于道路充电的有趣文章。你知道,任选一种。可以是感应式的。也可以是射频。这有任何潜力吗?好的。
第 114 段
就这方面而言,你知道,如果有潜力,Tesla是否参与其中,或者正在研究或开展与之有关的工作?谢谢。当然。我,我其实不——我认为那不太可能发生。嗯,我认为真正的发展方向只会是长续航电池。嗯,然后,然后,然后大多数充电往往会在人们的家里或工作场所进行。嗯,而,而那实际上占充电的80 90%。
第 115 段
呃,10%的充电是长途出行,这正是我们设置超级充电站的原因,所以你可以去往全国任何地方。嗯,实际上,我和我的孩子们进行了一次很棒的公路旅行,呃,从呃洛杉矶到南达科他州的拉什莫尔山。嗯,所以你可以去往全国任何地方,完全自由。
第 116 段
嗯,而且嗯,呃,但是但是我认为,在既不是家里或公司、也不是长途出行的地点,会有少量充电发生,但它属于低于5%的类别。所以,有当然很好,但它并不是,它并不是汽车具备完整实用性所必需的。把充电站设在附近。好的。当然。
第 117 段
所以我们,那实际上是我们的、是我们的、是我们的愿望,就是把超级充电站,嗯,设在某个你可以、你可以马上去,嗯,享用一顿美餐,嗯,喝杯咖啡,然后继续上路的地方。所以,或者如果你愿意,也可以购物。所以所以所以,我向所有人道歉。我占用了时间,而且我没有意识到我们超时了。
第 118 段
我以为这就是我们可以交谈的时间,然后还有更多时间用于提问。你能再多回答一会儿问题吗?可以,没问题。当然。所以,埃隆可以继续留在这里,呃,待一会儿。现在有娱乐表演在3个场地开始。呃,在左侧场地,呃,我们有史蒂夫·马丁和马丁·肖特带来的喜剧表演。呃,在右侧场地,呃,我们有Michael Boué。
第 119 段
而在中间,有,呃,Tony Bennett和Lady Gaga。不错。挺酷的,对吧?
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Good morning. My name is Gilad Shani and I'm a research analyst at Baron Capital following the tech and energy infrastructure sectors. It is my distinct pleasure to introduce our next guest. He is a man who has been identified as everything from a super villain to a superhero. He doesn't stop at changing our world as we know it. He's on a mission to change our galaxy.
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Elon Musk is the CEO of Tesla, a company whose mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable transport. In 2004, Elon was a lead investor in Tesla's first financing ground. And in 2008, when the company was near bankruptcy, Elon became CEO and led its growth to over $5 billion of revenue today. The company developed three electric vehicles, the Roadster, Model S, and Model X.
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The Model S has been described as a remarkable car that paves a new unorthodox course and it's a powerful statement of American startup ingenuity. Model X, which was recently launched, has a weight time of over a year. Tesla sold almost a 100,000 vehicles, electric vehicles to date. Tesla is building a battery manufacturing plant called Gigafactory that will be 10 times bigger than the largest Boeing facility producing Dreamlininers.
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Interestingly, Tesla is the largest battery consumer in the world, surpassing consumer electronic companies like Samsung and Apple. Elon is a scientist, an inventor, a designer, and one of the world's most innovative minds. He is helping to advance some of the world's most disruptive technologies. Tesla in the auto industry, SpaceX in the aerospace industry, and Solar City in the power industry.
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Now, please welcome Elon and Ron for a conversation. That's pretty cool. So when I started my career, one of my first clients told me that what was most important uh was finding someone uh who could realize a dream, make it happen. Uh and that's been my whole career, finding people in which to invest in whom to invest. Uh I was with Eric Schmidt recently. He's a chairman of Google and he's one of uh Elon's best friends.
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and uh he was telling me that he regards Elon as a combination of Walter Chrysler and Thomas Edison. And I didn't really know very much about Walter Chrysler until I looked him up on Google and and pretty interesting to be compared to those two guys. So, uh so, so again, keeping with the theory about investing in people, uh so we're investing in you and uh and and I think we're talking about $5 billion in revenues.
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Uh, I'm sure you believe this is just the very beginning. So, so I'd like to touch a little bit before we get into the business on your background. We just started to talk about that before. So, you came from South Africa. Your dad was an engineer. And your mother? Um, my mother's a model and a nutritionist. And one of your brothers worked with you. Yeah. We co-founded the post company together.
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And so so Elon uh was also a founder of you know he's had these games and uh electronic games and then he was a founder of PayPal uh sold his business PayPal and PayPal got sold went public 7 $800 million sold it for a billion too. eBay bought it ultimately 50 billion. So presumably that has some impact on the way you think about things. Yeah, absolutely. Um I I actually I I actually was against the sale.
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I wasn't in favor of the sale, but um I was um I I I I was largest, you know, owner of of PayPal at the time, but I only had like 12% and so everybody else really wanted to sell, so we went forward with that. Um but I think um I think we probably shouldn't have. Yeah. Um so so I was reading about your history and and we've spoken before obviously and about uh your interest in space and uh sustainable transport and solar energy.
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Where did all this come from? Well, uh, when I was in college, I thought about, um, what would most affect the future of humanity and, uh, I wanted to be involved in in those at least some of those areas and and I I thought there would be there were five things that I that I came up with that I thought would really affect our our future as a civilization. Um, one of them was the internet. Um, and then uh, the other was uh, sustainable energy.
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both production and consumption of of that. And the third was um making life multilanetary. Um and then fourth and fifth were uh genetics and uh and AI. Um and I didn't think I'd be involved in in those areas, but I just those sort of more in in the abstract of what I thought would would affect things.
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Um and um but I mean going going back a little further, I actually didn't really expect to be uh involved in creating companies when I was like uh in high school or you know uh middle school. Um I actually was going to going to um pursue sort of physics and a career in physics and try to sort of understand more about the nature of the universe.
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Um but um you know then things like the superconducting super collider got cancelled and I thought well you know like what if I'm stuck in some situation like that and then there's like some active government basically stops things and then uh then then I I would it would all be a waste.
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So, so when I when I think about it's a cars and so obviously, you know, if you're using hydrocarbons and burning them and wrecking the environment, it makes it tough to live on Earth and it's viewpointed out unless we adapt and can start to breathe carbon dioxide. And so, so, so, so that's your effort there.
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But yeah, actually the thing is that um in in college um my interest in sustainable energy was purely at the time was was really from the standpoint of of of us eventually running out of hydrocarbons to mine and burn. So there's there's there's obviously limited supply of oil in the ground um and and eventually we would have to transition to something that's sustainable.
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Um because when we're drawing oil from the ground, we're we're essentially taking the accumulated uh solar energy that was bound up in plants and animals and then over hundreds of millions of years uh was turned into oil. Um and and and that's that's obviously finite. And if uh we if we if we run out of that and don't have a good solution, then there would be economic collapse uh independent of any environmental concerns.
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Um and so that was actually what what sort of initiated my interest in sustainable energy. U and it's sort of toological. I mean if if you know it energy needs to be sustainable if it's going to last for the long term. Um and then over time it became apparent that there there was actually an even more pressing concern which is that we're quite materially changing the chemical constituency of the oceans and atmosphere.
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Um, and the way that humanity has kind of grown up around the world is that, um, you know, we've put so much of our so many of our cities and settlements and towns right along the coastline. Um, and, uh, you know, and and that the world is quite sort of delicate in in in these sort of chemical balance.
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And so the if if we do take trillions of tons of uh CO2 that was buried deep underground and has been since in a lot of cases since the pre-Camrian era um you know when the most sophisticated thing was like a sponge then that would be would be a bad experiment to run. So, so it seems so obvious and we have all these car companies that make all these cars every year that burn gasoline and nobody wanted to do anything. But why? Why? Why?
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So, it's so obvious, you know, you read in evidence and Exon was in the paper about the impact that they're having on the environment and they hit it just like the cigarette companies in 196. Same exact thing, right? It's it's the same same playbook.
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In fact, the crazy thing is um I'd recommend reading the book Merchants of Doubt um because they actually explored um some scientists at JPL and and and elsewhere sort of explored like well what's going on here? And they actually found that the uh I mean the oil and gas industry is actually using literally the same lobbyists as the tobacco industry. Like by name, not even the firm. Amazing. Like some of those guys still they're still going.
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Amazing. Um, yeah. So, I mean, and and just like when they learned how to do it. Yeah, absolutely. Um, and and then, uh, oddly enough, the one movie I was involved with making was a movie called Thank You for Smoking, uh, which I recommend watching. It's kind of a fun movie.
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Um, and and you but but it it's sort of um it's it's based on on Buckley's book and it's uh it's it's it's it really gets to the truth of the matter of like how how all this happens. Um and what they do is essentially exploit doubt.
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Um, and so even when you've got a situation where virtually every scientist uh on Earth agrees that this is, you know, that that that global warming is real, that adding um billions of tons of carbon to the atmosphere and oceans is is a bad idea.
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Then you have a few percent of who who descent and and then the way that is it is presented to the public is is not that you know 97 or 98% of scientists think what we're doing is crazy but that but simply that scientists disagree. Now scientists disagree about everything. Okay? You will not find 100% of scientists who agree about anything. Um so but but this is a very disingenuous argument.
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So, so, so I understand that and then I go to visit your plant and I've been there go every three or four months now and I guess not very many people who are analysts on Wall Street even though 22 guys publish about Tesla. I think very few have actually been there and hardly anyone's spoken to you.
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But then when I go into the plant and I see and I've been to other automobile plants also and there's a lot of people, not that many machines and I see our plant in Tesla and I see a lot of machines and not that many people. Uh and I look at it and it appears to me so herculean. How do you build such a thing? And how could you ever think you're going to be successful? Why how would you do such a thing?
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And then to start up you're a poor immigrant kid. You come here and you do how do you do that? How'd that work? Uh sure. Well, I mean, at the beginning of Tesla, um, I didn't think we would be successful. I thought we would almost certainly fail. Um, and you put all the money you had in PayPal to to invest in this and you thought you'd fail. Yeah.
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Um I mean I I could I could walk you through the basic logic of I mean how so um coming out of PayPal I was fortunate enough to have about $180 million. Um and I thought well that's that's a lot of money. Um, you know, if if if I I'm going to assign half of this to SpaceX, Tesla, and Solar City, and I'll still have the other half, and I'll be fine.
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Um, and Yeah, but you told your wife if it doesn't work when you live in your in her parents' basement. I did. Yeah. I was Yeah. Hopefully kidding cuz it's like it's not it's not great in her parents' basement. It's really not great. U Yeah. So, uh, yeah. Yeah, she didn't like that.
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Um but but I mean the way things so I thought yeah, you know, so I figure I'd probably lose the money, but we're you know, a good try and it's kind of important and um worth doing, but but then as time went by and the companies needed more money and then we hit that really tough recession of 0809, um which was super bad for the car industry. I mean, you had GM and Chrysler go bankrupt.
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Uh, so I was like, man, uh, if if I don't invest everything, if if I invest everything, there's a there's a chance um and that we'll we'll survive. If I don't invest everything, there was no chance. So, if it wasn't for that recession, there's no way this could have existed. Being able to buy a billion dollar plant for $50 million. Oh, that's true. But that came that came a bit later. But yeah, um, but the the real key thing was was 2008.
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Well, even maybe if you go from mid 2007 to mid 2009, those that 2-year period was super bad. Um, and we'd made so many mistakes in the beginning of Tesla that we basically had to recapitalize the company almost completely in 2007. Um, cuz I mean almost every decision we' made was wrong.
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Um so and and when we created the company and and I got to give credit here for the beginning for um uh AC Propulsion which is a little little company in uh Southern California who created an electric sports car. Um, and it was actually based on on on AC Propulsion sort of idea, but I was trying to convince AC Propulsion to commercialize an electric sports car.
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Uh, commercialize this sort of prototype that they done, but they had no interest in doing that. Um, and uh, after a while I got tired of trying to convince them. And so I said, "Look, I'm just going to do this myself." And then they said, "Well, you know, there's some other people that also want to do it. Do you want to join in with them?" I said, "Okay, let's let's do that." Um, and uh, but those guys don't get enough credit.
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They they uh they did some cool stuff with an electric sports car before Tesla did. So, that's was that's when you were thinking about should we use an engine and electric or should we just use electric? Oh, no. That that was that was pure electric sports car. Um, I mean the whole sort of saga of Tesla is quite complex and there's like many soap opera episodes that you could make out of it.
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Um but but no that that AC Propulsion had created a um a pure electric sports car uh called the T0 um as kind of just a demo. Uh but they were just not interested in commercializing their stuff. And um so I said, "Okay, look, this really needs to we need to show people broadly what electric cars can do." So um ended getting getting together with a bunch of guys and trying to commercialize that idea.
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So again, so we go back to this plant, this massive plant that we have out in Fremont, California today. Yeah. I never expected that we'd have this plant, but it's amazing place. Yeah. And the amazing thing is like it's kind of full, which is I mean it when I when we got in there, we thought like when we first got that that plant, it's this one of the biggest plants in the world. Um I think it's sort of like by footprint.
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I mean, I think it's like maybe the third or fourth biggest how many how many square feet? It's five and a half million square feet. Five and a half million. Yeah. So that's whatund how many acres? You mean under roof? 150 acres. Yeah, exactly. Um it's a General Motors building. Just to give you perspective, General Motors building, which is where the Apple store is, that one block, that's one acre. This 150 acres. Yeah, it's crazy.
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You could go camping in there. Um and um like it takes you a long time to work walk from one side to the other. Um we have bikes in the factory so you can just get around a bit faster. Um and like when we first got this um which was actually it was a little bit later. It was in um early 2010. Um and uh we thought, man, there's no way we'd ever get that that that awesome plant because um you know, it just cost too much.
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Um and we didn't have much we didn't have much money. But then as a result of the recession, um the plant which was joint owned by uh GM and Toyota, um the they decided to close it down. Um and the story behind that is sort of a long story independent of Tesla. So they were going to shut it down and it was just going to be empty and they was like maybe going to turn it into like a mall or something like that.
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Um and but it was going to be empty for a long time and um and and anyway so so we sort of approached uh Toyota and said like look um you know we'll take it off your hands you know uh and um and and then uh and we also did a bunch of other strategic elements that the strategic elements we did with Toyota were actually independent. We also did a electric RAV 4 program and then Toyota also um did an investment at the IPO.
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Um so and they invested at the IPO of $50 million at $50 million at a $17 share price. So it worked out for them. Um but um but we were amazed that that they were willing to move forward uh and and do it. Um and uh but for us at Tesla was so tiny at the time.
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I mean, it was like imagine like you're like this little band, this little group, and this like somebody says, "Well, there's this giant like alien dreadnaugh that you can, you know, you can have for pennies on the dollar, and you have no idea how it works." And you're like, like, where do the where are the controls? How do how do you use this thing?
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Um, and that that's what we um we were fortunate enough to to to buy it at a point where automotive plants were not worth much. So, this plan ultimately is going to be able to do a half a million cars a year. I think I think half a million cars and, you know, we could conceivably go beyond half a million cars, though, but that's not really the dream. I mean, long term, I think I think we want to try to do several million cars.
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Um, yeah, I mean, from volume standpoint, but we're now doing 50,000 this year and 75,000 next year. We're talking about several million. And but we think about Volkswagen 10 million, Toyota 10 million, General Motors eight or nine million. Profit margins a fraction of what we think we can do. Why can't we be bigger than them? Well, I mean I guess I mean that's pretty possibly. It's not out of the question.
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Um I think over time if we continue to if we build great products um and we keep our cost structure uh competitive um then I think uh you know who knows what the ultimate So we're going to need a lot of these plants. Yes. Many plants in fact many auto plants and many gigafactories I think are needed. So the gigafactory let's do that one. to gigafactories in Nevada. Yeah. And they and this is four billion, five billion.
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It's we're expecting it to be roughly a5 billion dollar uh capital investment to get to full production. Um although te Tesla's providing you roughly 50 60% of that um over time and then our strategic partners like Panasonic and a number of others are providing the other half roughly and then Nevada gave us a billion or in tax credits or savings or something. Um the whole tax credit thing drives me crazy.
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Um it sounds we're gonna have to turn it back. Yeah, it sounds much better than it is. Um so actually the first time I heard that the the amount was 1. 3 billion was at the press conference announcing the deal and I was like really how do we get to 1. 3? Um the what we actually got was um Nevada gave us uh some free land. Um but but the state of Nevada has a lot of land. So this is not a this is not in short supply like the desert.
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Um yeah, there's a lot of land in Nevada. Nevada um as I said. Um and then they also agreed to build a connecting highway on the southbound uh to that connects to Carson City, but they were going to do that anyway, so I don't think like that should be included in our in what they gave us.
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um like um and then they repurposed um I think uh I don't know $80 million of tax credits that was going to the like insurance comp insurance companies or something. They repurposed that to us. U but uh that that's the only sort of thing that we can actually monetize. Um and then um and and then they also gave us uh relief on um sales and use tax for equipment in the factory.
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Uh and depending upon what type of uh situation, it's either 10 or 20 years for the sales and use tax abatement. Um so but so if you assume that we we fully use the sales and use tax debatement which requires building which requires actually capital equipment in excess of $5 billion over 20 years and you add all of that up it adds to 1. 3 billion 1.
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3 yeah know actually in effect the contribution the initial contribution to the factory um the gigafactory by state of Nevada is less than 5%. And then they're and then they have roughly a 1% contribution over 20 years. So So presumably for them this a great deal because they're getting a lot of jobs. Oh, it's a no- loss proposition for the state.
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I mean, uh, you know, as the saying goes, the house always wins and like Nevada understands the house. Okay, Nevada is the house.
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So it's like the only way for us to actually have have the sales use tax credits be meaningful is uh if for us to have enormous numbers of machines and enormous numbers of people operating those machines and which is good for Nevada's calculation was that they that they would that their return on their tax credits would be somewhere between 80 and 100 not percent times times So it's like it's a it's a good deal for a state.
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So um so so the the battery plant that's what the giga plant is uh is being done uh without a lot of without any I I understand uh public viewing of what we're doing inside of that factory. And there were some reporters Yeah, there will be some but so far Yeah. Yeah. And there had been some reporters, I guess a couple or three weeks ago, uh, that snuck into our property. Yeah. And like ran over two of our people, tried to kill us, kill our guys.
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Um, yeah, that was pretty crazy. Um kind of, um, why? Well, I think they just got a bit overzealous and then and then I I assume that they panicked and weren't actually trying to kill our employees, but but they they did run over two of two of our employees, which is what, you know, while they were trying to they're trying to get away.
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Um uh and so they ran over two of our guys and like fortunately like the injuries aren't too serious but um but yeah that's that's like not cool. Um, so, so you know, so so we think it's important enough to not let anyone see what we're doing inside and other people trying to figure out what's going on and obviously not a nightclub.
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And uh, so so what is so what I think about is not knowing very much about technology and how things work is that so we're making that kind of a battery. Lithium. Lithium. Yeah. Although the the general rubric of lithium covers many types of chemistries. I mean um there's a really broad range of things of batteries that use lithium as the ion transport. So whatever you describe here is going to go over my head.
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But my question is how do we know when we're making such an investments that what we're building in that factory is going to persist? And why is it that in a hundred years so we do all sorts of things. are sending things out of the atmosphere, out of the galaxy, out of the universe, planes, and and uh and yet for 100 years, we haven't been able to build a battery that goes for more than 300 miles. So, how can that be?
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How how is it possible that we haven't been able to spend money on that? And if that's the case, because no one's paid attention to it, and all of a sudden, we come along and pay attention, we're going to try to reduce the weight in the existing batteries and use maybe silicon and having a 300 mile battery going to a thousand. Oh, yeah. So how do we worry that what we're building isn't going to get obsolete also?
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Um well the reason is that at this point I think we we have quite a good understanding of all the veterary technologies uh in the world. Um like there could be some small laboratory that's being super secret. Um but uh but generally what people inventing battery technologies try to do is they approach Tesla first and foremost because we're the biggest lithium ion consumer in the world.
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So anyone who wants to build a battery has new ideas, they're going to come to us before they go anywhere. Like we'd be their biggest customer. So if somebody invents something, the the obvious choice to license it to or is is Tesla. Um and so um and and and we try to take things, you know, as seriously as possible, but I mean we we track uh right now about 60 different uh efforts around the world to develop improved batteries.
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Um and you know some of them hold some long-term promise but uh we and but we rate all of them on from a one to five. Um where five is we should be doing business with them and one is complete BS. Um how many fives are there? There's no fives. Um there's some there's some threes. Uh currently there's no no one in the there's no one even in the four. Like there's some that might go from a three to a four.
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Four means we should we should be in like preliminary discussions. So what's what's going to change in the technology that's going to enable us to have this different are we going to have something in 10 years that's going to be an unusual battery that's going to be able to do a thousand miles and going to weigh less than it does presently? I don't think we'll have quite that much of an improvement.
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Um and and and actually I think most likely we would not like like technically right now for us to do say a 500 mile range car we could absolutely do that right now uh with current current batteries but but the the cost would be too high and the useful load impact on the vehicle would be too high. So you have we have to fill up part of the trunk and the front and the front trunk and the rear trunk uh with batteries.
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Um we'd have to impinch a little bit on passenger room. But for us to do a 500 mile range car right now be no problem. Um a 500 mile range car in the current uh form factor um I think that's you know probably less than 10 years away you know with in the same volume and roughly the same mass. And the way we're going to drive the cost of the kilowatt hours from 250 to 100. That's because we're doing what?
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That's just because we're doing scale because we're using different materials. because we're changing chemistry. How do we do that? Yeah. So, we we're making quite substantial improvements in the total pack energy density. So, there's there's the cell energy density and then as you put those cells together in a pack and you have to figure out how to do that safely. Um, we're able to reduce the pack energy density.
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So, we'll make I think quite significant improvements in the in the pack energy density. Um but but the thing that's most important really is the cost. Um because I mean for a lot of people that are driving Model S um you know the model the current say uh dual motor Model S will do over 300 m right now at 65 mph. Um so that's that's more than enough range for most people.
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It's and then you got the supercharger where you can recharge very you know very quickly. Uh we have supercharge network that's now ubiquitous throughout the country. You can that lots of our customers do cross-country trips LA New York um whatnot uh using a supercharge network.
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So there's really have you have freedom of travel at this point um and certainly incremental improvements to the battery pack range are important but the thing that's really important is reducing the cost per kilowatt hour.
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Um so the and we can do that with existing we could yes yes yes we are going to make some uh technology improvements as well to the fundamental cell chemistry um and certainly to the way that the uh battery modules and packs are organized but uh the fundamental focus is on um cost per unit of energy and uh that that's so so that that's what the gigafactory is about It's it's it's taking economies of scale um as as far as we can we can possibly imagine to to a very extreme level as far as we can.
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That's what gets it to 100 or that's what gets it lower than 100 to sorry 100 what $100 a kilowatt. Oh. Um, we um can't comment on exact price numbers, but but but I mean that's not that that's that's approximately, you know, it's that's in the ballpark of what we're aiming for. Um, and and and that's it's important to cut the essentially the cost per kilowatt hour at least by 30% with the gigafactory.
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And our aspiration of course is to do better than a 30% cost per kilowatt hour reduction.
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in in order to achieve the 50% cost reduction for the model 3 which is about a 20% smaller car um and so would require for the same range 20% pure you know less energy that that means to get to the full 50% we need another 30 points coming from economies of scale um which I'm I'm actually very confident we'll achieve um and and at the gigafactory what we're doing is consolidating the production of the pack all the way from the the raw materials so there's literally cars cars coming in from from the mines like rail cars of raw materials from the mines and then out come completely finished battery packs.
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Um and this has actually never been done before. Uh so this it for batteries at least. Um and uh what we're able to to to to do in this process is massively improve the the cost of the of the of the cells and the packs.
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Um because today if you were to trace the movement of the raw materials from when they're mined and and they go through the various refining steps around the world and eventually are put in a cell and then that cell eventually is put into a module and a pack and then put into a car and then delivered to somebody. The the the raw material that molecule from the mine is doing an around the world trip like three times. It's it's really crazy.
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Um and there are even steps in the process where um it is converted first into one. So that's a big opportunity for yeah huge huge.
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So, so one of the things, so Jeffrey Katzenberg is someone who I'm friendly with and he had a well publicized accident uh in in his Tesla car a week ago or two weeks ago or a month ago when someone went through a stoplight and a big SUV and hit him at u 40 miles an hour and he says that uh the Tesla car saved his life and he said because of the crush zones I guess and and he said it was just the most amazing thing.
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So, so here this guy well-known great publicity. Then there's something on the internet that says that uh someone was just driving a car along and the car was about to smash into them and the car and he didn't see it and the car saw it and stopped turned around and stopped. Right. And and so so here we have this safety much safer car than the other cars. Yes. And uh Tom Prrisker, I presume you know him.
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And uh his mom Cindy uh Tom goes Tom Tom is in his 60s and uh his mom Cindy I I don't know how I guess she won't say how old she is, but she's more than 60s. And so he drove his car to her house and she said, "I like this car." And so she kept the car. And so, so one of the things that's interesting to me is that just you talk about safety, but you don't really say, you know, your promotion isn't this is the safest car ever.
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I mean, I know you say it, but isn't that an unbelievable opportunity to uh to promote to change the demographic of who's buying our car and to get more Cindy's buying Cindy Prriskers instead of Tom's or instead of Tom's children? Um, yeah, it's glad you mentioned that. In fact, um, in designing the the Model S and the Model X, uh, safety was our absolute paramount goal.
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Um, and you know, I mean, my my I mean, I felt like obviously my family will be in the car, my friends. Um, if if if I didn't do everything possible to maximize safety and something went wrong, I couldn't live with myself. So um so we we spent enormous amounts of time on safety um and and and and the whole car is architected for for maximum safety. Um and and and we have we have physics on our side here which is very very important.
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Uh so the there and I'll just go briefly like why exactly is the car safe because you hear things like cars are five stars and all that but I mean this this five stars that's not an actual statistical number like statist you know safety statistics are not measured really in stars they um there's an actual probability uh of of injury which is that that's the number that's most important. and and the probability of injury.
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Um, you you can look it up. It's sort of varied in the in the the Department of Transport website, but they have this for each individual car. Yeah. Every every car has a a combined probability of injury. Um, and the Model S um is still uh even though we did it three years ago, it still has the lowest probability of injury of any car ever tested. Um, and that's just on passive safety. And then we have the active safety as well.
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Um, and the um, the reasons basically are that because the the car does not have a big steel engine block in the front, we have a front trunk as well as a rear trunk because the electric motors are so small that they're actually coaxial with the with the axles. So, when you have a high-speed frontal collision, uh, what really matters is force of a distance.
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You know, it's just like jumping into a pool from a from a high if you you know, if you jump from from a high diving board or something into a pool, um you'd want a deep pool and one without rocks in it. Um and and it's really not that complicated. It's the same thing for a car.
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And what people don't realize is like they think you think of like having a steel engine block is protecting you except that if when you hit something, you're going 60 m hour. So it's stopping you that is important. And so that deceleration distance is incredibly important. Um or or described another way, the the length of the crumple zone is extremely important.
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And the crumple zone on the front of a Model S is two to three times greater than that of any other premium sedan, which means that the uh impact attenuation is two to three times greater. Um and then anyone with their family, they want to buy one of these cars instead of a gasoline car. Absolutely. Definitely. Um, if I mean if this is um if if safety is of concern, I would for sure I mean it's just objectively true.
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It it is the safest car by far. The the accident that um uh Jeffrey was in where he was he was sort of um t-boned by an SUV. Um it's so that's a side impact collision. The the reason the side impact collision on the the S is so much better than another car is because the the main structural component is the battery pack in the floor pan.
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So the battery pack in the floor plan effectively acts as a big shear plate uh to transfer load uh from a side impact into the rest of the car. So so the whole car moves moves sideways uh in in a in a side impact collision. Um the but what happens in a in a gasoline car again because you've got the big steel engine block in the front you've got a huge portion of the mass in the front.
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So you've got um and and and the rest of the car is is relatively weak. You essentially have um just uh thin sheet metal in in the on the on the side of the car and in the floor pan of the car. So uh the the the effect of side impact the load transfer um for a gasoline car um to the rest of the mass of the car is weak and as a result the side impact distance is dramatically greater.
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Um the the net net result is that you are much safer in a side impact. Um so so I'll just do a couple more questions then I'll open it up for everyone else.
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But with so uh safety SpaceX and Uber so so safety with all these other automobile companies having one safety issue after another not just this emission problem but also about brakes and about IGN uh I'm sorry uh yeah the emissions not not just about brakes and about batteries and I'm sorry uh gasoline tanks um why so when we have a car that's uh existing that is spoiling the atmosphere in addition that's not as safe.
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Why don't you think people have moved more rapidly to adopt our technology which we've offered to give them for free? Oh, you mean with the patents everything? Yeah. Um I think actually that there are a number of companies using the patents. So it's starting. Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. So that's one. Question number two is uh uh space SpaceX and we'll come back to Uber. So SpaceX.
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So, when I was a kid, there was a television program called Captain Video and uh Channel 5. And the rocket would go up and it would fly around and come back and and then in the 1960s we started going to out you know to orbit and go to the moon and uh and and the rockets as they would take off the stage one after another would fall off like you know and and my first thought when that was happening I didn't really understand why that would happen.
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Sure. And now your idea is that hey this rocket ship is going to stay together and we could do 99 trips instead of one or something like that and therefore we can do it for one or two or 3% as expensively as we did it before. Why didn't anyone think of that before? Uh well actually the in the um rocket industry people have thought about uh reusability for for a very long time.
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Um and um it it it just happens that Earth's gravity is quite strong and um it it's just barely possible to get um reasonable payload to orbit um with an expendable rocket. Um so then if you add reusability um then that tends to give it negative payload to orbit. So you can't So how do you do it? So you've got to do two things.
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Um you've got to uh really advance the the core rocket technology itself as far as the engines, the airframe, um the avionics, um the recovery systems, um like the landing legs, uh and uh the the the boost back capability. um you you've got to um make make the rocket such that if it was uh in a pure expendable mode, it would get approximately four or slightly more than 4% of its payload mass to orbit.
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And and and to put this in perspective, normally a rocket gets about 2% of its payload mass orbit. So it's a very small number. Um but but if if so if you can push that two two-ish% to more like uh 4% on an expendable basis and then be really efficient in the way that the uh reuse takes place such that the reuse penalty is only maybe half of that so you still have a net payload to orbit of 2%.
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That that's essentially the what's needed to achieve reusability. Um and um and it I mean SpaceX has been at it now for 13 years. Um and we haven't yet achieved it. So um and I so I think what we've done thus far is evolutionary, not revolutionary, but I think we're within sort of shooting distance of this. I think within um I think within the next year we'll be able to uh land the rocket intact. We'll be able to land the rocket just not intact.
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It's like there's some exciting videos on YouTube if you want to watch them. Um, and uh, but but I think we're we're close to letting it intact. Um, and then we need to examine the rocket once we get it back to see what needs to be strengthened. Where do we overstrengthen things that we don't need to add as much mass and then we'll be able to do reusability uh, with the uh, with the rocket.
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Um, and the and and just like some of these things are maybe not they're not obvious to to people aren't who aren't familiar with the rocket industry, but the cost of our rocket is to to build it um is $60 million. And the but the cost of the propellant, the fuel and oxygen and so forth is only about uh $250,000. Wow. Um or maybe $300,000 thereabouts. But it's basically uh um yeah it's it's only about as expensive as say fueling up a 747. Okay.
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My last question uh is Uber. So I listened to your conference call and uh someone asked whether we could be like Uber and I won't ask you that but but been asked that a lot. Yeah. Because you always say can't comment on that. Not ready to make any announcements in that area.
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But my question is so there's another company it's much smaller than Uber called Lyft and uh I guess it's Carl Icon is an investor in that and I think Len Botnik is too and so my question is that what is it about Uber's business uh that will make them immune from being an attacked by Lyft? Does Lyft have a chance against Uber? Oh wow. I'm not really an expert in that arena.
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I is there some kind of scale that they have that makes it impossible for someone to compete against them is really my question. I I I think there's probably uh I think pro I mean this is I'm I've spent no time thinking about it but my impression this is of impression with like low confidence is that there's there's room for both Uber andyft. Yeah, that's what I I can see. Uh okay. So so Elon will take some questions now. Is that okay?
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Yeah, sure. No problem. And uh and then afterwards uh I'm sure that you know you there's a couple of Teslas out on the mall and I'm not getting a commission to sell them but but uh if you sign up for a uh a test drive then and we know about it then we will send you a a present so you can get that afterwards. But in the meantime questions.
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Oh, I should mention I I guess just got reminded um that that there's actually um for for anyone that isn't able to do a test drive today, uh we've actually arranged a a special uh VIP uh URL um just just for you guys, uh which is uh tesla. com/baron. Wow. Cool. Yeah. So, it's just uh Yeah. Thank you. Number six. Hi. Um, I had the pleasure of test driving a sick um an S just the other night.
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So, uh, it was 5 minutes in New York City traffic, but sweet. Yay. Um, I know you're not saying a whole lot about the Model 3 at this point, but I'm just curious what you're willing to say about the experience of driving a $35,000 or so Model 3 as compared to driving a Model S. Sure. Well, our intent is the Model S and the X will be a kind of premium sort of high-end cars. Um and we will try to lead with new technologies um in the S and the X.
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Um so uh that that will be the the advantage of the S and the X. Uh but the the the three will be um a smaller version. So maybe about 20% smaller uh comparable in size to say a 3 series BMW or an Audi A4. Um and um but it's it's going to have a very similar feel uh to to to the S. Um, and so it'll it'll be sort of have great acceleration, um, good driving feel, good handling, um, and for the size of the vehicle, uh, great cargo space.
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Um, yeah, I should mention like the the the S because it's got uh a trunk in the front and a trunk in the back. Um the the the actual cargo space of of the S is anywhere from 50 to 100% more than a typic than a than a gasoline car of the same external dimensions. Am I? You're the one. Thank you so much for joining us. I think that is fantastic.
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I think uh I as well everybody else here enjoyed hearing, you know, from you and you were indeed a visionary. I have one observation. Uh we have a favorite restaurant that has installed about six uh Tesla charging stations right outside the door. Okay, it's a good restaurant, but I notice they're always full. All those charging stations are full.
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And thinking of the great synergy of, you know, having a restaurant, I've got charging stations and now I get extra business. So, I hope they're paying you to put in these these stations. But I I have, you know, what I want to get to is a technical question. Read an interesting article about inroad charging. You know, take your pick. It can be inductive. It could be RF. Is there any potential for that? Okay.
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In terms of in, you know, if there is, is Tesla involved or engaged in looking or doing something with that? Thank you. Sure. I I actually don't I think that's unlikely to occur. Um, I think it's it's really going to be just long range batteries. Um, and then and then and then most charging tends to occur at people's home or business. Um, and and then that's really 80 90% of charging.
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Uh, 10% of charging is long distance, which is what we have the the superchargers, so you can travel anywhere in the country. Um, actually did this great road trip with with my kids uh from uh LA to Mount Rushmore in South Dakota. Um, so you can travel anywhere in the country, complete freedom.
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Um, and um, uh, but but I think in locations that are not home or business and not long distance that there will be a small amount of charging that occurs, but it's in the sub 5% category. So, it's nice to have, but it's not it's not needed for full utility of the car. Put the stations near. Okay. Sure.
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So we that's our that's our that's our aspiration actually is to put the supercharging stations um somewhere where you can you can immediately then go and um have a a nice meal and um grab a coffee and be on your way. So or and do some shopping if you want. So so so I apologize to everyone. I hogged the time and I didn't realize that we were running over.
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I thought that this was the amount of time we could talk and then there were more time for questions. Would you be able to answer some questions a little bit longer? Yeah, no problem. Sure. So, so Elon can stay here uh for a bit. There's entertainment that's now starting in three venues. Uh in the left venue, uh we have Steve Martin and Martin Short for comedy. Uh on the right venue, uh we have Michael Boué.
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And in the center, there's uh Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga. Not bad. Pretty cool, right?