机器翻译,已尽力保留原意与数字
内容摘要
在第32届 Baron 投资会议上与投资者罗恩·巴伦进行的年度炉边谈话:Tesla 制造与自动驾驶、Optimus 与就业、Neuralink、xAI 与 Grok 5、SpaceX 与意识。
The annual fireside chat with investor Ron Baron at his 32nd Baron Investment Conference: Tesla manufacturing and self-driving, Optimus and jobs, Neuralink, xAI and Grok 5, SpaceX and consciousness.
中文实录Transcript
115 个段落
第 1 段
谢谢大家。正如我之前说的,这和阿斯伯里帕克的会议大厅大不一样。呃,今天我们很荣幸请到埃隆·马斯克以线上方式加入我们。而在我们本次会议的主题是改变生活之际,再没有比他更适合在今天发言的人了。呃,没有人比埃隆更深刻地改变了我们的生活。
第 2 段
尤其是在财务上改变了我们的生活,但也改变了其他所有人的生活,而且,而且,而且真的感觉这才刚刚开始。没有他,就不会有电动汽车。呃,也不会有 FSD。5年或10年前,有谁听说过或想到过全服务驾驶自动驾驶?有人想过吗?呃,所以,呃,呃,呃,可重复飞行的火箭。以前没有人能做到。我祝贺先生。
第 3 段
杰夫·贝索斯昨天首次做到了这件事。呃,我们已经完成了,多少?5,000次飞行?而且,呃,而且,呃,我想我们有9,000颗卫星。正在向15,000颗迈进。所以,为他做到这件事、为杰夫做到这件事的人,都是以前在,呃,在在,为为 SpaceX 工作的人,呃,但对埃隆来说速度不够快。所以现在他们去了贝索斯那里。嗯。所以不会有星链。呃,没有重复飞行,没有,没有 Optimus。
第 4 段
事实上,呃,我想问的第一个问题之一是,我之前向助理介绍 Optimus,以及计划如何从明年的100万产量,提高到下一年的1,000万,再到1亿,再到10亿。她问我的是:“那么,人行道上哪有地方容纳它们?你们要建什么东西吗?
第 5 段
这就是我们对无聊公司的设想吗,让机器人去地下走动,或者飞到上面?哪有地方容纳它们?”嗯,实际上,实际上,你可以,你可以把,嗯,全人类都容纳在城市的地面上。人类占的地方就是这么小。而且,而且 Optimus,呃,并不介意被密集地挤在一起。所以,想一想人到底占多大地方,总是很有帮助。
第 6 段
而且,而且,而且这就是为什么我认为,只要在脑海里记住,地球上全部80亿人都能在纽约市的地面上只占一层。所以很充裕。另一种思考方式是,假设你飞越全国,而你的目标是向下方某个人扔一个水气球,你会失败。>> [笑声] >> 因为下面是空的。我们8年级时常干那种事。不过我们还是砸中他们了。嗯,对。
第 7 段
所以,所以凯特琳,不用担心,空间足够。呃,那么,当你谈到 Optimus 时,我想到的一件事是,它能执行这么多功能,那人类还剩下什么?除了生活在,你知道,你将创造的这种,这种巨大富足之中,人类还会有什么工作吗?会,会发生什么?
第 8 段
嗯,我认为这里有一个根本性的问题:你如何获得人生的意义?如果机器人能做一切的话。但我们看到许多例子,即使机器能做得好得多,人类仍然享受做这些事情。呃,比如体育,体育运动,对于,嗯,或者,我们来举一个像国际象棋这样的脑力运动。呃,电脑已经强大到,你那部甚至没有连接互联网的手机都能轻松击败马格努斯·卡尔森。
第 9 段
但国际象棋的受欢迎程度仍然处于历史最高点。所以,机器更擅长并不意味着什么。并不意味着我们无法从做这件事中获得满足感。顺便说一下,各位,是,手机的连接不是那么好。我们能不能换一种方式?回音有点大。我们不是,连接不是那么好。我觉得它一直断断续续。>> 如果我用这个说话呢?跟我们说话。>> [笑声] >> 好。好,你用那个。
第 10 段
你用那个,我用这个。嗯,[笑声] 哎呀。嗯,呃,所以,所以功能,功能。你们会近距离看到我的 Optimus 手臂。你们看到这些机器人在做的功能是什么?它们要做什么?为什么会有,我们有80亿人,怎么会有10亿个机器人?怎么,它们在哪里?听着,这,这要花我们一点时间才能制造出10亿个机器人。
第 11 段
所以,你知道,它们不会很贵。嗯,但是,但是我认为我们会,嗯,地球上最终会有10亿,数十亿个人形机器人。呃,一种思考方式是,呃,地球上有谁不想拥有自己的私人 R2-D2、C-3PO?我,几乎每个人都想要,你知道,R2-D2、C-3PO,但还要更好。嗯,就像你的私人帮手伙伴机器人,那会很棒。
第 12 段
呃,它可以教你的,教你的孩子,带你的狗散步,去,去买杂货,你知道,聊聊天,你知道,需要时保护你。很棒。嗯,那么工业领域会有多少机器人提供产品和服务?相对于人类,可能是3或4比1。这,这意味着机器人的总数可能会在某个范围内,或许高达400亿,40,400亿,也许,也许300亿个机器人。很多。
第 13 段
所以,所以,呃,那家制造用于生产的那些,那些机器人的日本公司,价格是50,000、100,000、150,000,而你描述的是一款价格为20,000美元的机器人。我们必须每年生产100万个才能做到,还是每年生产1,000万个才能达到20,000美元?而这会是人们负担得起的吗?它们会被出租吗?会被购买吗?
第 14 段
公司方面,我们把它们卖出去之后,会获得某种附带权益吗?这会如何运作?我们还没有这种模式。呃,嗯,呃,我粗略估计,在我们达到100万台的稳态产量之后,Optimus 要出售的,呃,人工和材料成本。也就是在年产量达到100万台之后1年。嗯,因为要改善成本,需要付出大量努力。
第 15 段
嗯,呃,但到了,到了那个时候,我预计人工和材料成本按当年美元计会是20到30,000。我认为那是,那是一个相当,我认为那是一个相当稳妥的估计。当你改善成本时,所以在汽车方面,你的想法是,我们从其他人那里购买并用于汽车的一切东西,我们都确切知道它的成本是多少。因此,我们可以告诉某个人,对于我们从他们那里购买的东西,我们会支付多少钱。
第 16 段
而如果情况不对,如果他们赚得太多,那么我们就自己制造那些东西。对于这些机器人,我们的想法也是一样的吗?它们应该比汽车简单得多。还是我错了?举起你的手。但手是,手极其复杂。嗯,手里有50个执行器。在手和前臂里。执行器就是电机?对,执行器就是电机、齿轮箱和电力电子设备。嗯,所以每个机器人是100个。
第 17 段
嗯,确实有很多,很多执行器和传感器。对吧?我说得对吗?大概?嗯,所以它,它,它有很高的复杂性。呃,为什么这很重要?为什么我们拥有如此复杂的手很重要?呃,为了执行灵巧任务,你,你必须有一只具有人手那种灵敏度、精度和自由度的手。
第 18 段
因为我,你,你知道,所以有些我们觉得很容易做的事,比如拿起螺丝刀或转动扳手,呃,甚至比如说穿针,呃,或者弹吉他,实际上都需要很高的灵巧性。
第 19 段
嗯,而且,呃,过去的其中一个,但我们,呃,认为可以实现可持续富足的原因之一,也就是公司的某种新,嗯,或者说修订后的目标,因为原来的目标是加速可持续能源,正如你提到的,我们,我们已经做到了。嗯,我们的新目标是可持续富足。
第 20 段
所以,那是所有人的富足,嗯,但要以一种可持续的方式,不会,呃,破坏这里的任何自然世界。我们怎么决定谁得到什么?有人想买我的房子,他们就能直接进来开始住在那里吗?嗯,我不确定为什么,我是说,你确实有一栋不错的房子,所以 >> [笑声] >> 呃,我当然能理解,理解它的吸引力。
第 21 段
嗯,但是,呃,机器人将能够为任何人建造房子,而且,呃,你知道,只要你不,只要不是非得住在某个特定地点,你就可以,机器人将能够为你建造一座城堡,如果你想要的话。所以,然后,但是需要灵巧性的原因是,你希望能够做,嗯,比如手术和精准医疗操作。而且,嗯,想象一个每个人都能获得最优秀外科医生服务的世界,确确实实是每个人。
第 22 段
而且,呃,Op-Optimus 将拥有坦率地说超越人类的精度水平。嗯,并将能够实施医疗程序,嗯,非常复杂的医疗程序。任,任何,任何医疗程序,也许包括人类实际上根本做不了的事情,因为它们太,它们太困难了。嗯,而这将提供给任何人。人们经常谈论消除贫困和提供优质医疗服务。
第 23 段
但他们没有,他们实际上没有解决方案。嗯,而且钱解决不了这个问题,因为优秀的医生和外科医生只有那么多,呃,数量非常有限。呃,他们不会长在树上。嗯,但现在他们,他们会在工厂里被制造出来。
第 24 段
所以,所以1年或2年前,我给你发过一篇关于一位年轻人的文章,他是《巴伦周刊》的一次采访,当时33岁,并且已经成为一名投资组合经理。他因为一种,嗯,我知道他是一名残奥会表演者,他因为食人细菌失去了双腿;我当时问,我们能做些什么让他摆脱轮椅吗?
第 25 段
而你说可以,3年或4年后,我们可以给他一具 Optimus 身体,然后可以利用我们,你知道,放在他头部、他大脑里的晶体管,让他像正常人一样活动,跳舞、唱歌、走路和跑步。我们在那个领域取得进展了吗?对,所以这是我的2家公司交汇之处,一家是 Neuralink,另一家是 Tesla。
第 26 段
嗯,所以 Neuralink 也取得了不错的进展,嗯,现在我想已有超过10名,呃,植入 Neuralink 的患者。嗯,而且,呃,这些人以前从来没有,他们无法移动手臂和腿,在某些情况下完全闭锁,就像,就像斯蒂芬·霍金一样,嗯,而他们现在可以交流,嗯,我想几乎和我们现在交流的速度一样快。嗯,这非常酷,而且这,这会继续加速。
第 27 段
嗯,所以我们能做的是使用一个 Neuralink 植入物,嗯,它从大脑的运动皮层获取信号,嗯,并且也,呃,呃,从躯体皮层、躯体感觉皮层接收信号,嗯,然后给一个失去双腿的人装上 Optimus 腿,所以,你确实,我是说,我们真的像是搞出了《600万美元先生》那样的东西,我是说,那是以前的节目。呃,我不知道你有没有看过那个节目,但我当时看过。我,我,我看过。
第 28 段
对,我觉得它挺有意思的,嗯,而且,而且我们实际上可以赋予某人像《600万美元先生》那样的超人级半机械人能力,但花费不到600万美元。>> [笑声] >> 我是说,在这个时代,我是说,当年的600万美元可是一笔巨款,伙计,如今这点钱简直不算什么。嗯,但,呃,但远远用不了那么多,我是说,花费会是一个相当负担得起的金额,嗯,你知道,它,它,它,它,它可能会是大约60,000美元这种水平。
第 29 段
嗯,而且,嗯,而且你可以获取 Neuralink 中的信号,也就是大脑原本会传递给双腿的信号,再把这些信号传递给所连接的,呃,Optimus 机器人双腿;而且,嗯,你实际上将能够比任何人类跑得都快。就,就像《600万美元先生》。你的 Neuralink 听起来真的很令人兴奋,听起来令人难以置信地兴奋。呃,我们转到 xAI。
第 30 段
呃,所以3年前,呃,你来过这里,而你当时要么刚刚收购了,要么正准备收购,呃,你知道,Twitter,也就是你后来改名为 X 的平台,而且你因此受到了广泛批评。是的,我受到了。对吧?事实上,你,你甚至在台上提到,你不想再让其他任何人生你的气了,因为已经有够多的人想杀你了。对,对,完全是。对吧?
第 31 段
所以,所以你当时在收购,你当时在收购 X,我想价格是420亿美元,而且你正在筹集资金,我给你打了电话,你之前没有打电话向我募资,是我给你打了电话,我说我想和你一起在这件事上投资1亿美元,其中6000万美元来自我们的一只基金,4000万美元来自我个人,然后,然后你说,真的吗?我说,是的,然后你 >> [笑声] >> 真的吗?你说,真的吗?
第 32 段
我说,是的,然后你告诉我,你觉得我的投资会翻一番。我说,嗯,我希望如此,但在我看来,你让我们在 Tesla 上赚了80亿美元,如果我不支持你正在开展的这项新事业,那就太不合适了。所以我们投了钱,结果就在付款当天,我们把它减记了70%。哦,天啊。
第 33 段
>> [笑声] >> 这就是,这就是为什么我知道你是一位真正的朋友,罗恩,因为,呃,这个,呃,你知道,我确实把你视为一位,一位真正的、真正且值得信赖的朋友。嗯,而且你知道,这,这,这对友谊的考验——我这故事还没讲完。>> [笑声] >> 结局更好,结局更好。对友谊的考验就,就是,就是谁会在你身处困境、时局艰难、所有人都反对你的时候支持你。那才是真正的朋友,而你就是,罗恩。
第 34 段
谢谢。嗯,所以所以所以,我们确实投了那100,把它减记到30,然后大约1年后,我们开始接到对冲基金的电话,他们似乎总能知道一些他们本不该知道的事情。>> [笑声] >> 是啊,他们是怎么做到的?对吧?
第 35 段
然后他们开始说,我想按你买入的价格买你的股票,呃,我说我想我宁愿等一等,继续持有,我也确实这么做了,然后然后,呃,把名字改成了X,并改变了业务架构,然后然后,呃,在那之后,你买下了Twitter,它和这个一起整合成了一个社交网络,而且而且而且,突然之间,我们拥有了一项掌握着不可思议的数据的业务。
第 36 段
你买下这个是为了那些没人知道的数据吗,但它但是但是这些数据来自6亿人彼此交谈,所以是其他任何人都没有的物理数据,然后你创办了 Grok,它以我们的数据为基础,而其他所有人都没有这些,他们拿到的是数字化的东西,然后当他们有了 Grok,我们就需要更多数据中心,而你正在建设这些数据中心,并且在非常短的时间内,不到数个月,你建成了一个数据中心,它是地球上其他任何人拥有的最大规模的4倍,25,000,其他人在 CPU 方面所拥有的什么什么,而我们用 GPU 建成了它,100,000,呃,更强大,然后,呃,你知道,现在我们有了,现在我们将达到数百,但归根结底是,我们所做的这项投资,我们投入了更多资金,我们总共
第 37 段
在过去2或3年里投资了3.5亿美元,现在它价值7亿美元。
第 38 段
所以你接触的一切都是这样,这是我见过的最不可思议的事情。所以所以,每个人都在投资,但投的是技术,而我们投资的是技术人才,地球上最优秀的工程师。所以非常感谢你。所以所以,这个愿景,问题是,你买下X、你买下Twitter是因为这些数据吗,就是说,在你这样做之前,你脑子里就已经有这一切了吗?
第 39 段
呃,其实没有,不是,我我买下 Twitter 只是因为我觉得它,嗯,正在对文明产生负面影响。>> [嗤笑] >> 嗯,而且,嗯,就是有点在推动,呃,反文明的思想,嗯,你知道,它它有点就是,被,呃,极左派所掌控,我觉得,你知道,称之为激进左派是公平的,在我看来,他们他们不会认为自己是这样,但它被,呃,你知道,一群人所掌控,他们的,呃,政治信仰就是那种,呃,你知道,深度旧金山和伯克利式的信仰。
第 40 段
嗯,这在美国已经算是左到不能再左了。嗯,所以那个那个那个问题并不是一个很好的辩论平台,嗯,因为他们他们封禁了许多右翼人士,包括总统,正如这正如这可能发生的那样,一位在任总统,这对总统来说确实前所未有。嗯,所以我认为我们我们需要有一个真正享有言论自由的公共广场。嗯,而言论自由是,是的,言论自由是是民主的基石。
第 41 段
嗯,我们我们,如果没有言论自由,人们就无法在充分知情的情况下投票。呃,而而如果你无法在充分知情的情况下投票,你就没有一个一个真正的民主制度。所以,收购 Twitter 的目的就是试图,呃,让它更加居中。呃,没有没有任何左翼声音遭到封禁,或或任何类似的对待,也没有受到压制。嗯,但是,呃,我们我们正努力做的是给予全国各个部分同等的权重。
第 42 段
嗯,这样它们就能成为一个公共市民广场,人们可以在那里交流想法,并希望这不会导致暴力。嗯,而且,呃,我认为那是那是至关重要的,呃,我认为这是其中一个,就像我说的,言论自由是民主的基石。它就是第一修正案。因为人们来自那些他们可能会因为自己说的话而被,呃,杀害或监禁的国家。事实上,就在我们说话的时候,这种事正在全世界发生。
第 43 段
呃,甚至在英国这样的地方。嗯,所以那就是,呃,那就是,你知道,我我之所以那么做,是因为我我我觉得,呃,如果这些文明层面的风险必须得到应对。而且我的意思是,如果美国不强大,那么企业又有什么意义?美美美国是支撑我们西方文明的一根中心支柱。而如果那根支柱倒下,一切都会倒下。所以所以,呃,所以你是 chat GPT 的创始人之一,两位创始人之一,而且你知道,open AI。
第 44 段
而且,呃,而且你们有过分歧,它成立时是一家慈善机构,你的想法是,你想确保,你知道,言论自由以及所有那些你认为对我们这个星球上的美好生活很重要的事情,呃,都能得到安全遵循。
第 45 段
而且,呃呃,那位,呃,另一位创始人,呃,他试图做而且确实做到的事情是,他取得了控制权,尽管那是你的钱,而他取得了控制权,而且,呃,然后你,而他说:“埃隆,我希望你留下来。”而,呃,你说:“我想走。我不想成为这件事的一部分。”而且,呃,而且而且他提出给你一些所有权,你说:“我不要。”
第 46 段
所以在这里,你放弃了 chat GPT 的所有权,因此很显然,你做所有这些事并不是为了钱。我的意思是,你是,但我的意思是,如果那不是,但我的意思是,如果你如果你只在乎钱,你绝不会离开一个其本身价值5000亿美元的东西。
第 47 段
所以在这里,你正在组建这个新实体,呃呃,Grok,来实现你原本想让 chat GPT 实现的目标,但你认为我们在这方面拥有优势,是因为数据,因为算力,还是因为什么?而你最终打算用它来做什么?你谈到把物理世界与数字世界连接起来。那是什么意思?是的,好吧,先回过头来谈一下 open AI。
第 48 段
嗯,我创立 open AI 的原因,是基于我与拉里·佩奇的交谈,我担心这位过去曾是我亲密朋友的人,嗯,对 AI 的危险没有给予足够重视。嗯,这件事在我的生日聚会上真正达到了顶点,呃,他当着一大群人的面称我是一个物种,嗯,因为我偏向人类而不是计算机。我我我觉得这令人不安。
第 49 段
嗯,>> [笑声] >> 我当时就想:“拉里,呃,你站在哪一边?”嗯,听起来你站在计算机那一边。呃,但你你真的需要站在人类这一队,你知道。嗯,所以,呃,在那之后我就想:“好吧,就是这样了。我们必须有某种力量来制衡,呃,Google。”嗯,因为拉里似乎并不在乎人类能否挺过去。嗯,所以我我想:“Google 的反面是什么?”那会是一个开源非营利组织。
第 50 段
而 open AI 中的 open 一词正是由此而来。它它的意思是开源。而而后来我我提供了,我提供了最初的全部资金,嗯,比如所有的 A、B、C 轮融资,并且,呃,招募了像伊利亚·苏茨克维这样的关键人物,还,嗯,把我知道的一切都教给了他们。而且,呃,你知道,我我实际上甚至让他们非常高效地与 Microsoft 打交道,以以至于我让谢尔盖捐出了一些 Azure 的使用时间。
第 51 段
嗯,而对于这一切,我完全没有寻求任何经济回报。嗯,而而我实际上拒绝股份提议的原因是,因为我的意思是,我我当时觉得:“你要股份以及什么?”比如非营利组织应该有股份。至少我上次确认时是这样。嗯,你知道,它们不应该,非营利组织不应该成为自我敛财的工具。
第 52 段
所以,这就是我拒绝股份要约的原因,因为它、它似乎在道德或法律上都不可转让。嗯,所以之后,关于、关于、关于 xAI,我们、而且我们创办 xAI 起步较晚,基本上才成立,我不知道,2年半,呃。呃,而且我们起步时处于落后位置。嗯,你知道,我们多少算是处于劣势的一方。呃,但你知道,我们很擅长技术。
第 53 段
所以,我不想在这里自我吹捧,但我很擅长技术。嗯,而且,嗯,而且我们的进步速度比其他任何 AI 都快。所以,我认为对于、对于科技企业来说,最终的赢家是能够以最快速度前进的那一个。
第 54 段
所以、所以、所以我们认为,所以我们在针对最佳技术进行优化,而且我们做的事情不同于其他人、其他人在、在、在数字世界里所做的事情,而我们是通过运动,呃,以及,呃,以及视觉,从实体转向数字,其他人无法与之匹敌。而且,我们还拥有实时数据。这意味着什么?为什么我们应该比其他所有人做得更好?为什么我们会赢?
第 55 段
或者,为什么我们至少会与其他所有人不同,从而拥有一家真正强大的企业?嗯,首先,我认为就、就、就成为一家强大企业而言,我其实并不太担心那、那一点,因为,嗯,即、即使是、即使是一个在 AI 领域取得成功的小参与者,也会非常值钱,因为他们将为经济贡献如此多的生产力。
第 56 段
所以,而且、而且所以、所以实际上相当容易实现一个不、并不是相当容易,但我的意思是,它、它、它不是,会有许多公司能够持续价值数千亿美元。持续地。嗯,所以接下来就是一个简单的问题,比如:“那么,我们如何取得领先?”嗯,这归结为3件事。嗯,你能否吸引最优秀的人才?嗯,你能否让最大数量的 AI 硬件上线?
第 57 段
你能、你能否比其他任何人都更快地让,呃,GPU 上线?而我们、我们已经证明了我们能够做到。呃、呃,黄仁勋本人说,嗯,xAI 启动其数据中心的速度之快令他震惊。黄仁勋说,地球上只有1个人能做到那件事。那就是你。是的,他确实那么说了。嗯 >> [哼声] >> 我、我发誓,我非常、非常有点,我非常、非常,呃,这让我们开始思考,你真的是人类吗?
第 58 段
>> [笑声] >> 我我一直告诉人们我是外星人,但没人相信我。我的意思是,当我拿到绿卡时,上面写的是外侨登记卡。所以,我的意思是,你知道,我有我有政府提供的证明。>> [笑声] >> 呃,所以我想我只需要去登记一下。>> [笑声] >> 呃,所以呃,我我会说,就如今在美国制造硬件而言,我掌握一些一些呃算是相对少见的技技能。
第 59 段
呃,如果你看看二战以来美国制造业最重大的成功,遥遥领先的是 Tesla 和 SpaceX。呃,是的。所以呃,所以所以再在 Grok 上停留一分钟,连接实体与数字的理念,是说这不同于由数字数字来弄清楚谁想买什么。我们正在做完全不同的事情。这么说公平吗?我我不会说我们正在做完全不同的事情。
第 60 段
我们在做呃,我们在做一些相同的事情,也在做一些不同的事情。呃,但我会说,如果你如果如果只是说,决定任何一家 AI 公司能否成功的要素将会是:第一,人才;第二,呃硬件,你能调动多少 AI 硬件?呃,那那实际上非常重要。呃,而我们已经证明,在 xAI,我们是最擅长做这件事的。然后第三,呃,对数据的独特获取渠道。
第 61 段
而在这方面,我们有 X 系统,也就是以前的 Twitter 系统,它遥遥领先,是世界上最好的实时数据来源。所以那那那是一些相当重要的资产。呃,而且呃而且我认为我们会提出一些非常创新的想法。呃,但坦率地说,我脑子里的想法多到不知道该怎么处理。呃,所以我认为我们会走出一些棋盘上没有的棋。呃,一些人们预料不到的棋。
第 62 段
呃,一些有创意的棋。呃,而且而且而且就像我说的,那所以所以我我应该指出,Grok 目前实际上,呃,Grok heavy,呃,仍然是最聪明的 AI。呃,据我所知。它它,我建议把它冷却一下。呃,Grok Grok 4 heavy 比 Grok agents 的响应更灵敏。呃,它们它们它们并行工作,并像学习小组一样比较各自的输出,然后给你最终结论。而且它在不断进步。
第 63 段
呃,现在我们已经开始训练 Grok 5。我认为,Grok 5 将在每——在每一项指标上,无一例外,以显著优势成为世界上最聪明的 AI。呃,我可能错了,但我认——我认为情况会是这样,而且,而且那会在第一季度的某个时候。Grok 5?是的。我的意思是,Grok 5 是第一次让我觉得:“嗯,我们实现通用人工智能的概率并非为零。”呃,并不是说概率很高。
第 64 段
我、我、我算是,我估算大概有10%。但这是我的生物神经网络得出的结果。这仍然意味着我们做不到的概率是90%。这一点很清楚。嗯,但我以前从未这样想过。所以我第一次觉得,“哇,这、这、这真的可能是通用智能,至少有很小的可能性。”嗯,Grok 5真的会很特别。嗯,而、而且它既会极其智能、极其智能,又会极其快速。
第 65 段
嗯,所以,所以我们正在做的事情中,有一件我认为很有意思,那就是 Grokopedia。嗯,我们,我们以后会把它改名为《银河百科全书》,呃,以纪念艾萨克·阿西莫夫,呃,还有,嗯,道格拉斯·亚当斯,他们,他们都在书中提到过这个名字。嗯,而《银河百科全书》背后的理念,是创建一个涵盖所有知识的开源资料库。就像是对所有知识的提炼。
第 66 段
而且,而且开源意味着任何人都可以访问它。任何人都可以使用它。而且如果,如果其他人想用它进行训练,他们可以这么做。呃,然后我们想创建它的副本,并将这些副本分发到地球各地,呃,甚至把它们放到月球和火星上以及外太空,嗯,以此作为某种现代版的亚历山大图书馆。亚历山大图书馆被烧毁,或者说遭人焚毁,是一场巨大的悲剧。
第 67 段
嗯,还有,嗯,所以为了保存这些知识,我认为我们,我们,我们想要真正把它蚀刻在石头上,做成某种石头、石头那样的缩微胶片,并且,并且,并且广泛分发,这样在最坏的情况下,未来的文明可以,可以看到我们、我们、我们学到了什么,也许可以从那里继续下去。那么,你能否描述一下,有没有什么重大突破能让我们用 Grok 5 做到这一点?还是仅仅因为速度?
第 68 段
是因为算力更强,因此我们能进行更多分析,拥有更多,呃,你知道,可以用来训练的信息吗?让我们有这10%的机会实现通用人工智能的突破是什么?是否存在,是否存在某种突破,还是仅仅因为速度和数据获取能力?不只是,不过,所以这里有几个因素。据我所知,它将是最大的模型。所以这是,这是一个,一个拥有6万亿参数的模型。
第 69 段
嗯,而 Grok 3 和 4 基于一个 3万亿参数的模型。嗯,而且,这 6万亿参数的模型每吉字节的智能密度将远高于,呃,Grok 4。嗯,我认为,每吉字节智能和每万亿次运算智能是值得思考的重要指标。嗯,我们学到了很多。嗯,所以,嗯,我们用于训练 Grok 5 的数据质量要好得多。
第 70 段
嗯,它本质上也是多模态的,所以包括文本、图片、视频、音频。嗯,它,嗯,它在使用工具方面会好得多,呃,事实上还会创建工具,以便更有效地回答问题和理解问题。呃,它的视觉能力会,呃,极其出色。它会有真正的实时快照、实时视频,我认为这是一件真正具有根本重要性的事情,其他任何 AI 都无法理解实时视频。
第 71 段
我认为,如果你做不到我们人类显然能做到的事,嗯,那你就,你确实无法实现,呃,AGI。嗯,顺便说一下,这些进展中的每一项…… >> 有一些特殊秘方项目,我,我……有一些特殊秘方项目,我,我显然不能在公开论坛上谈论。你不能,不能泄露,你知道,这里的所有,所有的,所有的秘密。这只是我们之间的事。
第 72 段
嗯,但是,但是,但是,但是,我们有一些、一些其他特别的东西正在、正在开发中。嗯,是为 Grok 5 准备的。所以它、它、它、它、它真的会让人感觉有意识。所以,但是,对于 Grok 5,当我们……当你谈到这些进展时,是没有极限的。所以,当我们……Grok 5 比 Grok 4 更好,后者又比 Grok 3 更好,而……所以,所以,它会不断继续下去。
第 73 段
所以,一旦我们达到有感知能力的水平,我们就会发展到2个有感知能力的、5个有感知能力的、10个有感知能力的、100万个有感知能力的。感知能——感知能力会增长。我的意思是,真正令人震撼的是,感知能力究竟能增长到多远?就就像你说的,那么,它能走多远?嗯,我认为它会走得极其遥远,几乎几乎远到无法理解。它它确实确实会走到令人无法理解的遥远程度。
第 74 段
嗯,呃,所以,就像,就像我们看到了一条路径,可以每年将100吉瓦的太阳能供电AI卫星送入轨道。嗯,并且让这实际上成为以超大规模为AI供电和运行AI成本最低的方式。嗯,作为参考,美国平均每年消耗约460吉瓦。比如说,美国的平均电力负荷是460吉瓦。>> 国家。整个国家。美国所有来源的全部电力,是的。
第 75 段
而你说的是增加100。嗯,大致相当于美国的电力产出。嗯,而且我们,我们有一个,我们已经制定了一个实现这一目标的计划。它,它会变得很疯狂。所以,所以有,嗯,什么,世界上以及一个太阳系里,或者随便你怎么称呼它,有1万亿颗像地球一样的行星。1万亿颗。
第 76 段
而在那1万亿颗之中,所以大爆炸发生在140亿年前,135亿年前,我也不知道具体是多少,而行星,我们的行星只有40亿年历史。所以,一定还有其他像我们这样的行星,拥有所有这些矿物质、氧、氢、硅、碳。呃,所以,这里的生命已经灭绝过4次。而想必你觉得其他地方、其他文明、其他行星,那么我们就会离开这个。呃,存在。
第 77 段
那些行星上的生物是否一部分是人类,或者一部分是碳、一部分是金属?嗯,我想我们希望弄清楚。我想弄清楚。呃,我是说,我的哲学是好奇。我,我,我只是想知道这个宇宙里,你知道,正在发生什么。嗯,物理学的标准是,物理学的标准是正确的吗?但是,宇宙的开端,热寂是宇宙的终点吗?还有其他外星文明吗?
第 78 段
我们能和他们交谈吗?还有,还有哪些关于现实的问题,是我们不知道该去问的?所以,我的动机就是扩展意识,以更好地理解宇宙。所以,所以,所以让我们离开宇宙,再回到Tesla。因此,你说,呃,得[笑声]回到地面上来。回到地面上。
第 79 段
而且,呃,所以,你说我们的专长是把东西做得比别人更好、更快、更便宜。当我开始投资Tesla时,当我们开始投资Tesla时,你告诉我们,呃,最重要的是制造机器的机器。制造……的机器,所以,你那时就在研究机器学习、机器技术,那是15年前。
第 80 段
而且,呃,所以,而且,而且现在,呃,我想平均每辆车是50分钟,呃,或者50秒、40秒、60秒,而我们现在是35秒。每35秒就有一辆车下线。然后,你说我们会把它降到10秒。你还说我们有可能降到5。5,我,我,每5秒就有一辆车从生产线上下来。这是怎么实现的?我,我,我当然看到了一条实现大约5,000毫秒周期时间,也就是5秒的路径。
第 81 段
嗯,而那其实只是步行速度。就像是某种快走。嗯,每秒1米是快走。汽车长度不到5米。所以,嗯,在5秒的周期时间下,汽、汽、汽车将以步行速度驶出生产线。所以,这,这就像是你,你可以跑开躲过它们。并,并不会像它们像子弹之类的东西一样冲出来。
第 82 段
>> [笑声] >> 所以,但是粗略估算一下,如果全天候24/7运营,一周有,你知道,有10,000分钟,而你能做到,呃,你知道,就[哼声]假设每分钟10辆车。嗯,你就能有,呃,是的,每周100,000辆车。所以,所以,但问题是,我们为什么能做到这一点?其他人只是不在乎吗?
第 83 段
他们是否认为,如果我做某件事,如果我有了这个想法,而我们尝试实施它,但它没成功,那么我就不会升职,或者我可能被解雇,或者我会受到责备。而如果它成功了,那么我可能得做很多额外的工作,呃,如果它没成功,我本来就不必做这些工作。所以,为什么其他人没有,你知道,让事情变得更好的思维方式?为什么中国人,他们一直很擅长模仿我们。
第 84 段
而且在某些情况下,可能甚至比我们做得更好。他们第一次不得不活着模仿。但是,你认为其他人为什么,为什么没能取得我们这样的进展?甚至Ford的那个人最近也说:“天啊,中国人不会称赞我们,但他们说那里的人,而中国人模仿了我们。”
第 85 段
呃,中国的那些人做得很棒,这其实是在称赞我们,因为他们做得很棒的原因就是我们。所以,为什么其他人不这么做?他为什么不这么做?嗯,大多数公司都是渐进主义者。嗯,你知道,管理团队想要做到,我不知道,比去年好5%,或许10%。嗯,而不是去冒可能失败的巨大风险。嗯,呃,显然,我不介意冒巨大风险。是的。
第 86 段
我会这么说。嗯,所以,那,而且我,而且我喜欢使用物理学工具来分析事物。而且,你知道,有一天晚上我在工厂时,当时我,我看着工厂,我就想,你知道,这,这可以高效得多。可以快得多。嗯,我当时在尝试做粗略计算,试图计算工厂的体积效率。
第 87 段
所以,如果你把工厂划分成立方米,然后问,呃,有多少立方米在做有用的事情?这个百分比小得惊人。体积密度并不是很好。嗯,然后,汽车之类的东西和零部件移动的速度相当慢。嗯,通常受限于人们安装刹车灯或座椅之类东西的速度。
第 88 段
嗯,所以,如果你提高工厂的密度,并改善体积效率,嗯,这对,对进一步,呃,对生产效率很有帮助,因为这样一来,东西需要移动的距离就更短。呃,就像,就像芯片一样,你提高芯片中电路的密度,就能让它效率更高。你,你可以把工厂想象成一块芯片。嗯,怎样让芯片变得更快?
第 89 段
嗯,你,你让电路彼此靠得更近,把它们做得更小,而且,而且,呃,你提高时钟速度。所以,Robin告诉我,你曾对她说过:“我把自己想象成一个比特。如果我是一个比特,我想怎样移动?”这说得通。>> 比特或者原子。所以,如果是,如果是,我是软件,我是软件,或者如果我在一艘船上,我会说:“这个比特的旅程是什么?我在哪里,我在做什么?”
第 90 段
而如果,如果那些旅程不合理,我就需要修正它。如果原子在工厂里的旅程不合理,我就需要修正它。所以,当你说你周末在工作,“我所有的星期日都在研究一款芯片。”这是什么意思?你做什么?呃,是,是星期六,不过,呃,有些时候星期日其实更快。最近我们也可以把星期日花在这上面。
第 91 段
嗯,是的,就是AI 5芯片,它会是一款很棒的芯片。嗯,你知道,所有Tes——所有Tesla引擎都在那款芯片上。你知道,那,那款芯片会装进我们下一代自动驾驶汽车,而且它对Optimus机器人也至关重要。所以,那,那个芯片项目当时状况很糟。嗯,它,它没有,它没有收敛,因为那,它,它,它是一项相当有雄心的芯片设计。
第 92 段
而且,而且它确实没有走在通往成功的路径上。嗯,然后,我们还有Dojo项目,它当时做得,它当时也还可以,但是,但是没有走在能够与Nvidia竞争的路径上。所以,我,我把,我把这2个项目合并成了仅仅1个项目,就是为了让所有人都专注于至关重要的AI 5芯片。嗯,继续使用Nvidia进行训练,但我们需要AI 5推理芯片。
第 93 段
嗯,它,它是一款非常强大的芯片,但,但是它也是一款功耗非常低的芯片。所以,它,它不会消耗很多电力。所以,它,它的每瓦性能极其出色。嗯,你想,你知道,它的每瓦性能可能会至少比Nvidia好2到3倍。嗯,在,在,在汽车和机器人中的推理层面。而且,你知道,我不知道。成本是Nvidia芯片的10%或类似的水平。
第 94 段
所以,所以这些是非常重要的,呃,需要实现的数字。而且,嗯,我必须让芯片项目重回正轨,所以我,你知道,我在这上面花了很多时间。到现在,我已经把芯片的整个物理设计都记在脑子里了。我能把整个东西想象出来。但是,当你、当你谈到芯片制造时,你说我们可能得建某种巨型晶圆厂。
第 95 段
想必,我们会与台积电或三星合作。我们不会独自做这件事。而那些人做这件事已经有……我们会独自做?而且、而且这些东西要花费200亿美元、300亿美元、400亿美元。做这件事的人从哪里来?我们怎么可能没有合作伙伴?你对于找一个合作伙伴有什么想法?在未来10年里独自做?
第 96 段
你知道,全世界不会有足够的芯片来完成我们正试图做的事情。是的,首先,我非常尊敬台积电和三星,而且我们、我们在Tesla和SpaceX都与台积电和三星合作过。嗯,所以,台积电和三星都是很出色的公司。我们希望它们尽可能快地制造我们的芯片,并将产量扩大到它们愿意做到的尽可能高的水平。
第 97 段
但这、这看起来还不够快。你知道,当我问从开始到结束建成一座新的芯片晶圆厂需要多长时间时,他们告诉我,要5、5年才能达到盲目生产。我就想,5年对我来说就是无限久。我的、我的、我的时间尺度——顺便说一句,对我也是——1年、2年,然后到第3年,尺度就趋于无穷大。所以、所以我、我甚至看不到3年以后。
第 98 段
所以接着我就想,该死,好吧,这,嗯,这样不够快。所以现在,如果、如果他们、如果他们改变主意,说,是的,他们、他们会加快速度,而且他们会、他们想在我们需要的时间范围内,每年为我们提供,你知道,1000亿至2000亿颗AI芯片,那很好。但当他们知道我们就是需求,而且我们会在我们自己的产品中使用这种产品时,他们怎么可能不这么做?
第 99 段
他们怎么会不想成为我们的供应商?或者他们怎么会不想与我们合作?我不明白。我知道他们,他们是合作伙伴。我们同时在用台积电和三星。>> 真正大幅扩充产能,他们为什么不这么做?从他们的角度来看,他们在这么做。因为我们会使用台积电台湾、台积电台积电台湾、台积电亚利桑那、韩国、三星,而且芯片又回到三星。所以我们有4个或5个即将到来。
第 100 段
而且,嗯,是的,从他们的角度来看,他们的行动快如闪电。嗯,我只是说,尽管如此,这仍会成为我们的一个限制因素。他们,他们已经在尽其所能地加快速度。但从这个角度来看,那是没有上限的。他们,他们只是从未遇到过某个人,没有这样一家拥有这种紧迫感的公司。所以我,那才是真正重要的。
第 101 段
可能只是,要以我们希望的速度实现规模化,唯一的办法就是建造一座地球规模的晶圆厂。嗯,而且,嗯,或者让Optimus和自动驾驶汽车的产量受AI芯片限制。显然,你不会那么做。这是2个选择。嗯,说到FSD,我们没有太多时间了。
第 102 段
但是FSD,呃,完全自动,完全自动驾驶,嗯,呃,你知道,我们似乎正在取得这些巨大的,呃,突破。而且,呃,你最近说过,在确信情况确实如此之前,你不想扩大汽车产能。现在你确信情况确实如此。而且同样,在这里,我们在制造,在这些汽车上正实现这些指数级飞跃。
第 103 段
而且你说,实际付费购买完全自动驾驶的人中,有很大一部分并不使用它,而且以前从未尝试过。是的,这非常疯狂。是啊,怎么,是啊,我们做得怎么样?怎么怎么,你买了东西,就会想试试之类的。是啊,太不可思议了。是啊,是啊。所以,所以我们现在出于安全原因,算是在坚持向客户演示完全自动驾驶。
第 104 段
因为从大规模数据来看,数字是毫无歧义的:现在行驶里程已超过100亿英里,使用完全自动驾驶比不使用安全4倍。所以,所以这实际上是安全性方面的一项重大改善。因此到了这个时候,我们,我们,我们,我们只是坚持至少向客户演示,呃,自动驾驶,让他们知道如何使用和开启它,呃,这是出于安全原因。
第 105 段
所以完全自动驾驶开起车来就像人一样,而不是必须通过编码,呃,寻找可能发生的每一种情况,而你有一个,你知道,我们前面这是一辆挂着自行车的消防车,或者有人一边开车一边遛狗。他们必须用代码识别一切。AI所做的、我们所做的,据我理解,就是确保它像我们一样。这样说公平吗?
第 106 段
是的,实现,呃,完全自动驾驶,呃,无监督完全自动驾驶并且比人类更安全,关键在于改进车内的AI软件。我们相信,我们设计、呃、目前由三星制造的AI 4,呃,硬件,也就是芯片,呃,能够在无监督状态下达到,呃,至少为普通驾驶员2到3倍的安全水平,所谓无监督,意思是即使你在车里睡着了。呃,也许更高。
第 107 段
嗯,然后有了AI 5,我们认为,你知道,可能会实现安全性提高10倍。嗯,所以这些,这些真的是大事。我的意思是,我认为我在这里说的是一件非常深刻的事情。嗯,而且我真的鼓励人们走出去试试Tesla的自动驾驶,亲自看看。你只要去任何一家Tesla门店就行。他们会给你演示,你知道。这不是什么秘密。
第 108 段
所以在座的每个人,呃,如果你试用这个然后购买它,你就会受益。但一旦你试过,你就会买下它。你应该试试。嗯,而且,呃,所以,所以我想用我今天早上在 CNBC 提到的话作结,那就是你做这件事,呃,并不是为了赚到足够的钱去买一栋海滨别墅。你做这件事,你这样做,甚至我的也是。>> [笑声] >> 对,没错。但但但但你做这件事,是因为你知道,呃,拉里·佩奇是对的。
第 109 段
你是,你是物种,你认为人类应该生存下去。是的,我支持,我,我,我毫不掩饰地支持人类。>> [笑声] >> 我的意思是,所以你在花费,所以实际上,无论你的身家是再多1万亿美元,还是400 bi——其实都不重要。最后你打算拿所有这些钱做什么?你,你,你的计划是什么?你希望人们怎么看待你?
第 110 段
嗯,你知道,主要是我需要对这些公司拥有足够、足够的所有权,才能继续指导它们的活动。嗯,但从我个人消费的角度来说,嗯,我其实没有任何度假住宅。嗯,而且我只有一栋算是,你知道,中等大小的房子,在奥斯汀。嗯,所以,而且其实我应该说,在星港还有一栋小房子。而我买它花了——我见过那栋房子。很小。>> 对,对。
第 111 段
对,但实际上,人们,人们,比如朋友可能来拜访,他们,他们以为我是在开玩笑。我就说,不,这是真的。呃,我花了50,000美元买下它,不过我把这个地方改造了很多。前面铺了人造草坪,还有一道白色小尖桩栅栏。嗯,对。
第 112 段
所以,嗯,但但就像像我说的,有了有了 AI 和机器人技术,将会有,呃,富足供给 所以这是人们实际上事实上在在一种良性情景下,将会有一个有趣的阈值,AI 会跨过它,AI 和机器人技术会跨过它,届时它已经没有能为人类做的事情了。它确实,它它已经完全,呃,满足了人类的所有需求。嗯,然后我猜它将不得不开始思考要为自己做些什么,或者我不知道。
第 113 段
嗯,但我我我,你知道,总的来说,我想采取采取那一系列能将意识扩展到未来的行动,从而让意识的范围和规模极大地增长,也让我们像《星际迷航》中那样探索其他恒星系统,前往我们从未去过的地方。
第 114 段
并弄清是否存在现有的外星文明,或者也许有一个早已消亡的外星文明,而我们可以查看他们的遗迹,努力了解他们他们是什么样的。嗯,以及总体上理解宇宙。你现在此刻在哪里?我在我在硅谷。非常感谢你今天的参与。欢迎。>> 感谢你为我、为我们的股东以及为人类所做的一切。谢谢你,埃隆。
第 115 段
我很感激。好了。
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Thank you everyone. As I said before it's a lot different than Convention Hall in Asbury Park. Uh Today we're privileged to have Elon Musk join us uh virtually. And there couldn't be anyone more appropriate to speak to today when our theme of our conference is changing lives. Uh there's no one who's changed our lives more than Elon.
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Especially changed our lives financially, but changed everyone else's lives and and and that really feels like it's just beginning. Without him there'd be no electric vehicles. Uh there'd be no FSD. Has anyone ever heard of thought of full service drive self-driving 5 or 10 years ago? Has anyone ever thought about that? Uh so uh uh uh re-flyable rockets. No one has been able to do that before. I congratulate Mr.
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Jeff Bezos for accomplishing it uh yesterday first time. Uh we've already done uh what? 5,000 flights? And uh and uh we have 9,000 satellites, I think it is. On the way to 15,000. So and the people who did that for him did it for Jeff are people who used to work at uh at at for for SpaceX uh but couldn't go fast enough for Elon. So now they went over to Bezos. Um So there would be no Starlink. Uh no re-fly no no Optimus.
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In fact uh one of the first questions I wanted to ask as I was telling my assistant about Optimus before and how the plan is to go from uh a million production next year to 10 million the following year to 100 million to a billion. And what she asked me was, "Well so where's the room for them on the sidewalks? Are you going to build something?
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Is that the idea that we have behind uh Boring Company to go underground for the robots to walk around or fly above? Where's the room for them?" Well, actually actually you you could you could fit um all of humanity um on the floor in the city. That's how small the humans are. And and Optimus uh doesn't mind being packed densely. So it it's always helpful to think how how much room do people take.
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And and and this is why I think just having it in the back of your mind that all 8 billion people on Earth can fit on one floor in the city of New York. So plenty Another way to think about it is is as if you fly across the country and your goal is to drop a water balloon on someone below you you will fail. >> [laughter] >> Cuz it's empty. We we used to do that when we were in eighth grade. We got them though. Um Yeah.
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So so Caitlin don't worry, there's enough room. Uh So one of the things I think about when you talk about Optimus is that there's so many functions that it can perform what's going to be left for humans? Is there a job that humans going to have other than just living in you know this this great abundance that that you're going to create? What what's going to happen?
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Well, I think there's this question of fundamental of how do you derive meaning in life? If the robots can do everything. But we see lots of examples where even though machines can do much better humans still enjoy these things. Uh like athletic athletics for um or let's take a a mental sport like chess. Uh the the computers are so good that your phone not even connected to the internet can beat Magnus Carlsen easily.
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But yet chess is at all-time highs in popularity. So really machines being better at doesn't mean anything. Doesn't mean we can't derive satisfaction in doing it. By the way, guys, is the connection isn't that good with the phone. Is there some way we can do something else? A bit echoey. We're not the connection isn't that good. I think it keeps cutting in and out. >> What if I talk on this? Talk to us. >> [laughter] >> Okay. Okay, you do that.
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You do that and I'll do this. Um [laughter] uh-oh. Um uh So so the function the function You'll get a like a close look at my Optimus arm. The the the functions that you see these robots doing is what? What are they going to do? And why is there How are we going to have a billion of them when we have 8 billion people? How where are they Look it it's it's going to take us a minute to make a billion robots.
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So you know, they're not going to be expensive. Um But but I think we will um they will ultimately be a billion billions of humanoid robots on Earth. Uh a way to think about it is uh who on Earth would not want their own personal R2-D2 C-3PO? I pretty much everyone wants you know R2-D2 C-3PO but even better. Um like your personal helper buddy robot it would be great.
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Uh you could teach your teach your kids, take your dog for a walk, get get the groceries you know, chat chat you know, protect you when needed. Great. Um And then how many robots would there be in industry providing products and services? Probably three or four to one relative to humans. Which which suggests that total number of robots will be somewhere around maybe as high as 40 billion 40 40 billion maybe maybe 30 billion robots. It's a lot.
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So so uh the Japanese company that makes those those robots that are used in manufacturing are 50,000, 100,000, 150,000 and you're describing a robot that's $20,000. We have to have a million a year to do that or 10 million a year to get to $20,000. And is that something that's going to be affordable for people? Are they going to be rented? They going to be purchased?
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Corporations are we going to get some kind of carried interest once they buy them from us? How is this going to work? We don't have the model yet. Uh well, uh my rough guess is that the uh cost to be sold uh their labor and materials for Optimus um after we reach a million units of steady state production. So call it a year after reaching a million units a year. Um cuz it takes a lot of effort to uh improve the cost.
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Um uh but at at that point I would expect the the the labor and materials to be 20 to 30,000 in current year dollars. I think that's that's a pretty I think that's a pretty safe estimate. When you're improving cost so with cars, your idea is that everything we buy from other people to use in our cars, we know exactly how much it costs. And therefore we can tell someone how much we're going to pay for what we're buying from them.
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And if it doesn't if they're making too much, then we make that stuff ourselves. Is that the same kind of idea we have in this robots where we're going to should be much simpler to make than a car. Or am I wrong? Raise your hand. But the hand is hand is extremely complex. Um there are 50 actuators in the hand. In the hand and forearm. Actuator is the motor? Yeah, actuator is the motor, gearbox, and power electronics. Um So that's 100 per robot.
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Um really a lot of lot of actuators and sensors. Right? Am I getting that right? Approximately? Um So it it's it's there's a lot of complexity. Uh Why is that important? Why is it important that we have such a complex hand? Uh so in order to do dexterous tasks you you have to have a hand with the the sensitivity, precision and degrees of freedom of a human hand.
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Because I you you know, the so something that is we find easy to do like pick up a screwdriver or turn a wrench uh or even say thread a needle uh or play the guitar actually require a lot of dexterity.
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Um and uh one of the one of the past but one of the reasons um we we think we can achieve sustainable abundance which is sort of the the new um or so the revised version of the company's goal because it was accelerate sustainable energy which as you mentioned we've we've done that. Um our new goal is sustainable abundance.
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So that's abundance for all um and but in a way that is sustainable that does not uh destroy uh any of the natural world in this. How do we decide who gets what? Somebody wants to buy my house they can just come in and start living there? Well I'm not sure why I mean you do have a nice house so >> [laughter] >> uh I can certainly see the see the appeal.
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Um but uh the robots will be able to make anyone a house and uh you know as long as you don't just don't have being in a particular location you can have robots will be able to build you a castle if you want. So and then but the the reason for dexterity is you want to be able to do um so like surgery and precision medical uh actions. And um so imagine a world where everyone has access to the best surgeons literally everyone.
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And uh Op- Optimus will have level of precision that is frankly superhuman. Um and will be able to do medical procedures um of very sophisticated medical procedures. A- any any medical procedure perhaps things that that really humans can't even do because they're too they're too difficult. Um and that will be available to anyone. There are people often talk about eliminating poverty and providing great medical care.
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But they don't they don't actually have a solution. Um and money doesn't solve it because there are only so many uh there's a very limited number of of great doctors and surgeons. Uh they don't grow on trees. Um but now they they'll get built in factories.
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So so I sent you a year or two ago an article about a young man who was an interview in Barron's and he was 33 at the time and he had become a portfolio manager and he lost his legs to a um I know he was a Paralympic performer and he lost his legs to man-eating bacteria and I said is there anything we can do to get him out of the wheelchair?
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And you said yes there is in three or four years we can give him an Optimus body and then we can use our you know transistors in his head in his brain to let him function as a normal person and dance and sing and walk and run. Have we been able to make progress in that area? Yeah so that's a confluence of two of my companies one is being Neuralink and the other being Tesla.
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Um so Neuralink has also made good progress um now has I think over 10 uh patients with Neuralink implants um and uh these people who had never who didn't have the ability to move their arms and legs in some cases were completely locked in like like Stephen Hawking um and they can now communicate um I think as quickly almost as quickly as we're communicating right now. Um which is very cool and that's that's going to continue to accelerate.
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Um so what we can do is use a Neuralink implant um that is taking signals from the motor cortex of the brain um and and also uh uh receiving signals from the somato cortex somatosensory cortex um and then give someone uh who's lost their legs Optimus legs and so you do I mean we're we're really getting like the $6 million man here I mean from back in the day. Uh I don't know if you watched that show but I watched it back then. I I I watched it.
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Yeah I thought it was pretty fun um and and we we can actually give someone superhuman cyborg capabilities like the $6 million man but less than $6 million. >> [laughter] >> I mean in this day and age I mean $6 million back then was a fortune man these days it's like nothing. Um but uh but for much less than that I mean like for something that that would be reasonably affordable um you know it it it it it might be well like $60,000 type of thing.
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Um and um and you can take the signals from Neuralink the mind that would be transmitting to the legs and transmit those to the attached uh Optimus robot legs and um and you would actually be able to run faster than any human. Just just like $6 million man. Your Neuralink sounds really exciting sounds unbelievably exciting. Uh let's switch to XAI.
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Uh so three years ago uh you were here and you had either just purchased or about to purchase uh you know Twitter which you've renamed X and you were widely criticized for that. And yes I was. Right? In fact you you've even mentioned here on stage that you didn't want to have anyone else be angry at you cuz you had enough people trying to kill you already. Yeah yeah totally. Right?
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So so you were buying you were buying X and it was $42 billion I think and you were in the process of raising money and I called you up and you hadn't called me to solicit me and I called you up and I said I would like to invest with you $100 million in this and it was $60 million for one of our funds and $40 million for me and and you said really? I said yeah and you >> [laughter] >> Really? You said really?
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And I said yeah and and you told me that you thought I would make a double. And I said well I hope so but to me it felt like you made us $8 billion in in in Tesla and it would be not very appropriate if I didn't support this new venture that you were doing. So we and and then the day that we paid the money we marked it down 70%. Oh man.
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>> [laughter] >> This is this is how I know you're a true friend Ron because uh this is uh you know I do regard you as as a true a true and trusted friend. Um and you know the the the test of friendship it I got more to the story. >> [laughter] >> It's a better ending better ending. The test of friendship is is is who supports you when the chips are down and the times are tough and everyone's against you. That's a real friend and that's you Ron.
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Thank you. Um so so so we did invest that 100 marked down to 30 and then about a year later we started getting phone calls from hedge funds who always seem to know things they're not supposed to know. >> [laughter] >> Yeah how do they do that? Right?
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And they started saying I'd like to buy your stock uh for what you paid for it and I said I think I'd rather wait and stay in which I did and then and then uh change the name to X and change the configuration of business and and then uh from that uh you bought Twitter and it came together in a social network along with this and and and all of a sudden we have a business that has incredible data.
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Did you buy this for the data that no one knew about but it but but the data with 600 million people talking with each other so physical data that no one else has and then you started Grok which is based on our data and everyone else doesn't have that they got digital stuff and then when they have Grok then we need more data centers and you're building those and in a space of a very short time less than months you built a data center which is four times what is the largest than anyone else on the planet 25,000 what what other people had in in CPUs and we built it in GPUs 100,000 uh more powerful and then uh you know now we have now we're going to go to hundreds of but the bottom line is the investment that we made we put up more money and we have a total
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of $350 million invested over the past two or three years and now it's worth $700 million.
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So everything you touch is like that it's the most unbelievable thing I've ever seen. So so everyone is investing but in technology and we're investing in in the technology person the best engineer on the planet. So thank you very much. So so the vision is the question is did you buy X did you buy Twitter because of the data is that did you have all this in your head before you did it?
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Uh not really no I I just bought Twitter because I thought it was um having a negative effect on civilization >> [snorts] >> um and um just sort of pushing uh ideas that were anti-civilizational um you know it it sort of what having having sort of captured by uh the far left I think you know it's fair to say the radical left to me they they wouldn't regard themselves as such but it was captured by uh you know a group of people whose uh political beliefs are those of uh you know, deeply San Francisco and Berkeley.
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Um which is about as left as you get in America. Um so that that that matter wasn't a good forum for debate um cuz they they suspended many people on the right including the president as it as it may occur, a sitting president which is really unprecedented for a president. Um so I think we we need to have a public square where there's uh true freedom of speech. Um and freedom of speech is Yeah, freedom of speech is is the bedrock of democracy.
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Um we we if there's not freedom of speech people cannot make an informed vote. Uh and and if you cannot make an informed vote, you don't have a a real democracy. So, that's the purpose of uh acquiring Twitter was to try to uh bring it more to the center. Uh there there have been no no left-wing voices have been banned or or anything like that or suppressed. Um but uh what what we're trying to do is give equal weight to all parts of the country.
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Um so that they can be a public town square where people can exchange ideas and hopefully it does not result in violence. Um and uh I think that's that's fundamental to uh I think it's one of the like I said, free speech is the bedrock of democracy. It's quite the first amendment. Cuz people came from countries where if they could be uh killed or imprisoned what they said. And in fact, this is happening all around the world as we speak.
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Uh even in places like Britain. Um so that's uh that's you know what I I did because I I I felt like uh if it's these civilizational risks had to be addressed. And I mean what if America is not strong then what do businesses matter? The the the America is a central pillar that holds up our Western civilization. And if that pillar falls everything falls. So so uh so you were one of the founders the two founders of chat GPT and you know, open AI.
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And uh and you had a disagree and it was founded as a charity and it was your idea that you wanted to make sure that you know, freedom of speech and all the things that you deem important for good lives on our planet uh were followed safely.
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And uh uh the uh the other founder uh what he tried to do and did was accomplished is that he got control even though it was your money and he got control and uh and you and he said, "Elon, I'd like you to stay." And uh you said, "I want to go. I don't want to be a part of this." And uh and and he offered you some ownership and you said, "I don't want it."
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And so here, you walk away from an ownership of chat GPT so you're obviously not doing all this stuff for money. I mean, you are, but I mean if that's not but I mean, if you if you were only about money, you would have never left with something that's worth $500 billion by itself.
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And so here, you're forming this new entity uh uh Grok to accomplish what you wanted chat GPT to accomplish, but you think that we have an advantage in this because of the data, because of the compute, because of what? And what are you going to do with this ultimately? You talk about connecting physical world to digital. What does that mean? Yeah, well just going back to open AI for a second.
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Um the reason I founded open AI was because I was concerned based on my conversations with Larry Page who used to be a close friend of mine um that he was not sufficiently concerned about the dangers of AI. Um this really came to a head when at my birthday party uh he in front of a large group of people called me a species um for favoring humanity over computers. I I I found that troubling.
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Um >> [laughter] >> I was like, "Larry, uh what side are you on?" Um it sounds like you're on the side of the computers. Uh but you you really need to be on team humanity here, you know. Um so uh after that I was like, "Okay, this is it. We got to have some counterbalance to uh Google." Um because Larry doesn't seem to care if humans make it or not. Um so I I thought, "What's the opposite of Google?" It would be an open source nonprofit.
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And that's where the word open in open AI comes from. It It means open source. And and then I I provided I provided all the money beginning um like whatever the series A B C rounds and uh recruited the key people like Ilya Sutskever and um taught them everything I know. And uh you know I I actually even got them to deal with Microsoft with with such efficiency to I got Sergey to donate some time from Azure.
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Um and for all that, I did not seek any financial reward whatsoever. Um The and the reason I actually turned down the offer for shares is because I mean, I I felt like, "What do you shares and what?" Like nonprofits supposed to have shares. At least last time I checked. Um you know, they're not supposed nonprofits are not supposed to be vehicles for self-enrichment.
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So, that's why I turned down the offer of shares cuz it it didn't seem morally or legally transferable. Um so that then with with with xAI we and we are starting late with xAI and we're only I don't know, two and a half uh years old basically. Uh And we're starting from behind. Um you know, we are somewhat of an underdog. Uh but you know, pretty good with technology.
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So, I don't want to pat myself on the back here, but I'm pretty good with technology. Um and um and we are advancing faster than any other AI. So, I think in in the for technology ventures, the winner ultimately is the one that is able to move the fastest.
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So so so we think that so we're optimizing for the best technology and we're doing something different than others others do in in in a digital world and we're physical to digital with movement uh and uh and visual and other people can't match that. And also, we have the real-time data. What does that mean? Why should we do better than everyone else? Why are we going to win?
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Or why are we going to at least be different than everyone else so we have a really strong business? Well, first of all, I think in in in terms of being a strong business, I'm actually not too worried about that that because um e- even if even a small player that is successful in AI will be worth a lot because they'll contribute so much in productivity to the economy.
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So and and so so it's actually pretty easy to achieve a not pretty easy, but I mean it's it's it's not there there will be many companies that are worth sustainably several hundred billion dollars. Sustainably. Um so then it's a simple question of like, "Well, how do we achieve the lead?" Um that comes down to three things. Um are you able to attract the best talent? Um are you able to bring the most amount of AI hardware online?
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Can you can you bring uh GPUs online faster than anyone else? And we've we've already demonstrated that we can do that. Uh uh Jensen Huang himself said that um he was blown away by how fast uh xAI uh launched its data center. Jensen said there's only one human on the planet who could have done that. That's you. Yes, he did say that. Um >> [snorts] >> I I swear I'm very very kind of I'm very very uh It's made us think about are you really human?
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>> [laughter] >> I I keep telling people I'm an alien, but nobody believes me. I mean, when I got my green card, it said alien registration card. So, I mean, you know, I have I have proof from the government. >> [laughter] >> Um so I think I just have to get registered. >> [laughter] >> Um so uh I'm I'm I'd say I've got some some uh s- like relatively rare skills these days in America in terms of of getting hardware built.
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Um if you look at the biggest successes uh in manufacturing in America since World War II by far are Tesla and SpaceX. Um yeah. So uh So So to stay on to stay on Grok for another minute so the idea of connecting physical and digital is that that's different than digital digital figuring out who wants to buy what. We're doing something entirely different. Is that fair? I I wouldn't say we're doing something entirely different.
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We're doing uh we're doing some things that are same, some things that are different. Um but I'd say if you if if just saying like the the elements that define success for any AI company are going to be one the talent, two the uh hardware, how much AI hardware can you bring to bear? Um that that's actually a very big deal. Um and we've shown that we're the best at doing that at XAI. And then third, uh unique access to data.
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And for that we've got the the X system, formerly the Twitter system, which is the by far the best source of real-time data in the world. So that that that those are some pretty significant assets. Um and uh and I think we're going to come up with some very innovative ideas. Um but I have more ideas in my head than I know what to do with, frankly. Um so I think we'll make some moves that are not on the chessboard. Uh that people don't anticipate.
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Um some creative moves. Uh and and and like I said that So So I I should point out that Grok right now actually um Grok heavy um is still the smartest AI. Uh best of my knowledge. It's it's I recommend cooling it down. Um Grok Grok 4 heavy is more responsive than Grok agents. Uh they they they work in parallel and they compare their output like a study group and give you the final conclusion. And it keeps getting better.
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Um and now we've begun training on Grok 5. Grok 5, I think will be the smartest AI in the world by a significant margin on ev- on every metric, without exception. Um I might be wrong, but I th- I think that will be the case and and that will be in Q1 sometime. Grok 5? Yes. I mean Grok 5 is the first time where I thought, "Well, we have a non-zero chance of achieving artificial general intelligence." Um not that it's a high chance.
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I I I sort of I calculate like 10%. But that's what my biological neural net comes up with. Which still means 90% chance that we don't. We're clear. Um but I've never thought that before. And so for the first time I think like, "Wow, this this this really could be general intelligence, at least a small chance." Um Grok 5 will really be something special. Um and and it'll be both extremely intelligent extremely intelligent and extremely fast.
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Um So So one of the things that we're doing that I think is interesting is Grokopedia. Um which we're we're going to rename down the road to to be Encyclopedia Galactica uh in honor of Isaac Asimov uh and um Douglas Adams, who who both mentioned that in books. Um and the idea behind Encyclopedia Galactica is to create an open-source repository of all knowledge. Like a distillation of all knowledge.
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And And open-source meaning anyone can access it. Anyone can use it. And if if other people want to train on it, they can do so. Uh and then we want to create copies of this and distribute these copies throughout Earth uh and even put them on the moon and Mars and out in deep space um as in a way sort of a a modern-day Library of Alexandria. It was the great tragedy that the Library of Alexandria burned down or or was burned down.
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Um and um so in order to preserve this knowledge, I think we we we want to actually etch it in stone and sort of stone stone like microfiche and and and distribute it widely, so in a worst-case scenario, future civilization can can see what we what what we learned and maybe pick things up from there. So is there a major breakthrough that you can describe that allows us to do this with Grok 5? Or is it just speed?
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Is it more compute and therefore we have more analysis more uh you know, information we can train on? What is the breakthrough that allows us to uh to have this 10% chance for AGI? Is there Is there a breakthrough or is it just speed and access to data? Not just, but So there's a couple things. It will be the largest model to the best of my knowledge. So this is this is a a 6 trillion parameter model.
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Um whereas Grok 3 and 4 are based on a 3 trillion parameter model. Um and moreover, the 6 trillion parameters will have a much higher intelligence density per gigabyte than uh Grok 4. Um I think it's an important metric to think about intelligence per gigabyte and intelligence per trillion operations. Um we've learned a lot. Um so um quality of the data that we're training on with Grok 5 is much better.
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Um it's also inherently multimodal, so it's text, pictures, video, audio. Um it's um it's going to be much better at tool use uh and in fact creating tools to be more effective at answering questions and understanding them. Uh its vision will be uh extremely good. It'll have real real-time snap real-time video, which is I think a really fundamentally important thing that none of the other AIs can understand real-time video.
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I think if you can't do that which us humans can obviously do. Um you're at you really can't achieve uh AGI. Um By the way, every one of these advances >> There's some special sauce items that I that There's some special sauce items that I I can't talk about in the public forum, obviously. You can't can't give away you know, all all the all the secrets here. It's just between us.
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Um But but But But we have a few a few other special things that are that are in the works. Um for Grok 5. So it's it's It's It's It's really going to feel sentient. So but there is no when we with Grok 5 when you're talking about the advances there is no limit. So when we're Grok 5 is better than Grok 4, which is better than Grok 3, which So So it keeps going.
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So once we get to sentient levels we go two sentient, five sentient, 10 sentient, a million sentient. The sen- the sentience will grow. I mean, what's really mind-blowing is can how far can the sentience grow? To to your point, well, how far does it go? Um I think it goes immensely far, almost almost incomprehensibly far. It It does does go incomprehensibly far.
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Um uh so the Like Like we see a path to to putting a 100 gigawatts per year of solar-powered AI satellite into orbit. Um and and having this be actually the lowest cost way to uh power and operate uh AI at a very large scale. Um for reference the United States consumes roughly 460 gigawatts on average per year. Like if the average power load in the US is 460 gigawatts. >> country. The whole country. All electricity of all sources in the US, yes.
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And you're talking about 100 being added. Well, roughly equivalent to the US electricity output. Um And we We have a We have a plan mapped out to do that. It It gets crazy. So So there's um what, a trillion planets like Earth in the uh world and in a solar system or whatever you call it. A trillion.
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And in that trillion, so Big Bang was 14 billion years ago, 13 and a half billion years ago, I don't know what, and planet our planet's only 4 billion years old. So, there must be other planets that are like ours with all the minerals, oxygen, hydrogen, silicon, carbon. Uh So, life here has been extinguished four times. And presumably you feel that other places, other civilizations, other planets, then we'll get off of this. Uh exist.
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And are they planets where the beings there are part human, or part carbon, and part metal? Well, I think we'd like to find out. I'd like to find out. Uh I mean, my philosophy is one of curiosity. I I I just want to know what's you know, what's going on in this universe. Um is the standard is the standard of physics right? But, the beginning of the universe, is heat death the end of the universe? Are there other alien civilizations?
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Can we talk to them? And and what questions should we be asking about reality that we don't know to ask? So, that's my motivation is to expand consciousness to better understand the universe. So, so so let's go to away from the universe, back to Tesla again. And so, you said that uh Got [laughter] to be back on the ground here. Back on the ground.
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And uh so, you said that our expertise is in making things better, faster, cheaper than other people. And when I started investing in Tesla, when we started investing in Tesla, you were telling us that uh that it's the machine that makes the machine that's most important. The machine that makes So, you were into machine learning, machine technology then, which is 15 years ago.
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And uh so, and and now uh the average car I think it's 50 minutes uh or 50 seconds, 40 seconds, 60 seconds, and we're now 35 seconds. Every 35 seconds a car rolls off. And then, you say that we're going to get down to 10 seconds. And you said it's a possibility we can go to five. Five I I Five seconds every car is rolling off a line. How's that happen? I I I certainly see a path to achieving um a roughly 5,000 ms cycle time, or 5 seconds.
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Um which is only that's only really walking speed. That's like sort of a fast walk. Um 1 m per second is a fast walk. The car is less than 5 m long. So, um the 5-second cycle time the the the cars will will be exiting line at walking speed. So, it's it's like you you can run away from them. It's not it's not going to be like they're coming out like bullets or something.
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>> [laughter] >> So, but as a as a rough rule of thumb, there's you know, there's 10,000 minutes in a week if you run a 24/7 operation, and you get uh you know, let's [snorts] say 10 cars per minute. Um you've got uh yeah, 100,000 cars a week. So, so, but the question is how come we're able to do this? Do other people just not care?
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Do they think that if I do something, if I have this idea, and we try to implement it, and it doesn't work, then I'm not going to get promoted, or I can get fired, or I'll get blamed. And if it works, then I might have to do a lot of extra work uh that I wouldn't have had to do if it didn't work. So, why don't other people have, you know, a mindset of making things better? Why the the Chinese, they've been great at copying us.
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And in some instances, probably even done better than us. They have to live copied for the first time. But, how how come do you think that other people haven't been able to make the advances we have? And even the guy from Ford this recent said, "Geez, people in China wouldn't give us compliments, but they said the people in and the Chinese have copied us.
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Uh those people in China are doing great, which is really a compliment to us because the reason they're doing great is because of us. So, why don't other people do this? Why doesn't he do that? Um most companies are incrementalists. Um you know, the management team wants to do I don't know, 5%, maybe 10% better than last year. Um as opposed to take big risks that could fail. Um Uh obviously don't have a problem with taking big risks. Yeah.
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I'd say. Um So, that And I and I like to use the tools of physics to analyze things. And you know, when I was in the factory one night, when I was I was looking at the factory, and I was like, you know, this this could be much more efficient. It could be much faster. Um the I was trying to do rough math, trying to calculate the volumetric efficiency of the factories.
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So, if you divide factory into cubic meters, and say uh how many cubic meters are doing something useful? And it's a surprisingly small percentage. The volumetric density is not very good. Um and then, the speed of like the cars and the parts moving is quite slow. Um generally limited by the speed at which people can say uh attach brake lights or the seat or something like that.
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Um So, if you densify the factory and improve the volumetric efficiency, um which is it's helpful for for more uh for production efficiency because then things have less distance to move. Uh just like just like a chip, you densify circuits in a chip, and you make it more efficient. You you think of a factory is like a chip. Um how do you make a chip faster?
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Well, you you bring circuits closer together, make them smaller, and and uh you increase the the clock speed. So, Robin told me that you told her once that "I think of myself as a bit. And if I'm a bit, how would I like to travel?" That makes sense. >> Bit or an atom. So, if it's if it's the I'm software I software, or if I'm on a ship, I say, "What's the journey of the bit? Where am what am I doing?"
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And if if those journey doesn't make sense, I need to fix it. And if the journey of the atom in the factory doesn't make sense, I need to fix it. So, when you say you're working on weekends, "I spent all my Sundays working on a chip." What does that mean? What do you do? Uh it's it's Saturdays, but uh some sometimes Sundays actually it's faster. Recently we can spend Sundays, too.
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Um Yeah, just the the AI 5 chip, which is going to be a great chip. Um you know, all of Tes- all of Tesla engines on that chip. You know, that's that's the chip that goes that will go into our next generation of self-driving cars, and it's also essential for the Optimus robot. So, that that chip program was in bad shape. Um It it wasn't it wasn't closing cuz that it's it's it's quite an ambitious chip design.
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And and it really wasn't on a path to success. Um And then, we also had the Dojo program, which was doing it was also doing okay, but but not on a path to be competitive with Nvidia. So, I I collapsed the I collapsed the two programs into just one program just to get everyone focused on AI 5 chip, which is essential. Um continue to use Nvidia for training, but we need the AI 5 inference chip.
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Um which is it's a a very powerful chip, but that but it's also a very low power chip. So, it it doesn't use a lot of power. So, it's it's performance per watt is extremely good. Um you think you know, it's probably going to be at least two to three times better than Nvidia in performance per watt. Um at at the at the inference level in the car and the robot. And you know, I don't know. 10% of the cost of an Nvidia chip or something like that.
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So, so the these are very important uh numbers to achieve. And um I had to get the chip program back on track, so I you know, I spent a lot of time into it. And at this point, I have the entire physical design of the chip laid out in memory. I can visualize the whole thing. But, when you're when you're talking about chip manufacturing, you say we might have to build some kind of a giant fab.
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Presumably, we would have a partner with TSMC or with Samsung. We wouldn't do this by ourselves. And those guys have been doing this for We would do it by ourselves? And and these are things that cost 20 billion, 30, 40 billion dollars. And where do the people come from to do this? How could we not have partners? What is your thought to have a partner? To do it by ourselves over the next 10 years?
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You know, there's not going to be enough chips in the world to accomplish what we're trying to do. Yeah, first of all, I have immense respect for TSMC and Samsung, and we we've worked with both TSMC and Samsung um at Tesla and at uh SpaceX. Um So, TSMC and Samsung are great companies. And we want them to make our chips as quickly as they can and scale up to as high as possible volume that that they're comfortable doing.
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But it's it doesn't appear to be fast enough. You know, when I ask how long will it take to from start to finish to get a new chip fab built, they tell me five five years to get to blind production. I'm like five years to me is infinity. My my my timelines To me, too, by the way. one year, two year And at year three, scale it goes to infinity. So so I I can't even see past three years.
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So then I'm like, damn, okay, this is um this is not going to be fast enough. So Now if if they if they change their minds and say, yeah, they're they're going to go faster and they're going to they want to provide us with, you know, 100 to 200 billion AI chips a year in the timeframe that we need them, that's great. But how could they not when they know that we're demand and we are going to use the product in our own product?
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How could they not want to be our supplier? Or how could they not want to be partners with us? I don't understand. I know what they they are partners. We're using both TSMC and Samsung. >> really expand capacity tremendously, why don't they do that? From their standpoint, they are. Because we'll be using TSMC Taiwan, TSMC TSMC Taiwan, TSMC Arizona, Korea, Samsung and the chips is back Samsung. So we got four or five coming.
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And um Yeah, from their standpoint, they're moving like lightning. Um I'm just saying nonetheless it would be a limiting factor for for us. They're they're going as fast as they can. But from this standpoint, there's no limit to that. They're they're just never had someone without such a company that has that sense of urgency. So I that's what really matters.
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It it might just be that the only way to get to scale at the rate that we want to get to scale is to to build a earth scale fab. Um and um or or be limited in output of Optimus and self-driving cars by the AI chips. Obviously, you're not going to do that. Those are two choices. Um to go to FSD, we don't have too much more time.
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But FSD, uh full self full self-driving, um the uh you know, we're we're making these tremendous uh breakthroughs, it seems. And uh you said recently that you didn't want to expand capacity for making cars until you were convinced that that was the case. You are now convinced that's the case. And again, here we're making these exponential leaps uh in make in in these cars.
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And you said that a very large percentage of people who actually paid for full self-driving don't use it and have never tried it before. Yes, it's pretty wild. Yeah, how Yeah, how we doing? How how You buy something and you want to try it type of thing. Yeah, it's amazing. Yeah, yeah. So so we're we're we're we're now kind of insisting uh with customers uh for safety reasons that we demonstrate full self-driving.
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Because the numbers are unequivocal at scale that with with the now over 10 billion miles driven, that it's four times safer on full self-driving than than than not. So so here it's actually a big improvement in in safety. And so at this point, we're we're we're we're just insisting that we at least demonstrate uh self-driving to customers so they know how to use it and turn it on uh for safety reasons.
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So drives full self-driving drives just like a person as opposed to having to code through uh look for every circumstance that would happen and you had a you know, this this is a fire truck in front of us with a bicycle attached to it or someone walking his dog while he's driving along. They have to identify everything with a code. What AI does, what we do is we as I understand it, is to make sure that it's just like us. Is that fair to say?
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Yes, it the key to achieving uh full self-driving uh unsupervised full self-driving and safer than human is improving the AI software in the car. We're confident that the AI 4 uh hardware that that's chip that we designed, uh currently made by Samsung, uh is capable of achieving uh a safety level unsupervised, meaning if you're asleep in the car, uh at least two to three times that of the average driver. Uh maybe more.
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Um and then with AI 5, we think you know, achieve probably a 10x uh improvement in safety. Um So these these are really big deals. I mean, I think it's a one of very profound things I'm saying here. Um And I really encourage people to go out there and try the Tesla self-driving and and see for yourself. It's you can just go to any Tesla store. They'll show it to you, you know. It's not secret.
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So everyone here, uh you're benefiting if you try this and then buy it. But once you try it, you're going to buy it. You should try it. Um And uh so so I want to close on what I mentioned this morning on CNBC was that you're not doing this uh so you can get enough money to buy a beach house. You're doing you're doing this even mine. >> [laughter] >> Yeah, that's right. But but But but you're doing this because you know, uh Larry Page was right.
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You're you're species that you think humans should survive. Yes, I'm pro I'm I'm I'm an unabashedly pro-human. >> [laughter] >> I mean, so you're you're spending so actually whether you worth another trillion dollars or 400 bi- it doesn't really matter. What are you going to do with all this money at the end? What what what's your plan? How do you want people to think about you?
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Well, you know, mostly I need to have enough enough ownership of the companies to be able to continue to direct their activities. Um but as for my personal consumption standpoint, um I I don't actually own any vacation homes. Um And I just own one sort of you know, medium-sized house in Austin. Um So and and actually I should say a tiny house at Starbase. And I bought it for I've seen that house. It's tiny. >> Yeah, yeah.
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Yeah, but I actually people people like friends might have come to visit and they they thought I was kidding. I'm like, no, it's real. Uh I bought it for 50,000 dollars, but I've done a lot with the place. Artificial turf in front, little white picket fence. Um yeah.
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So um But but like like I said, with with AI and robotics, there will be uh abundance for So it's people actually in fact in in a benign scenario, there's going to be an interesting threshold that that AI passes, AI and robotics pass, where it's run out of things to do for humans. It's literally it's it's completely uh satiated all human wants. Um and then I guess it'll have to start thinking about what to do for itself or I don't know.
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Um But I I I you know, overall I want to take take the set of actions that expand consciousness into the future so that the scope and scale of consciousness grows tremendously and that we explore other star systems like in Star Trek, go places that we never gone before.
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And find out if there are existing alien civilizations or maybe there's a long dead alien civilization and we can look through their ruins and try to understand what what they were like. Um and just generally understand the universe. Where are you now right now? I'm in I'm in Silicon Valley. Thank you very much for today. Welcome. >> Thank you for everything you've done for me, for our shareholders, and for humanity. Thank you, Elon.
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I appreciate it. All right.