Jason Ridlo 为 Americ Jr. 报道。

com，看 Jason Ridlo 从文艺复兴中心的底特律万豪酒店为 2015 年《汽车新闻》世界大会进行报道，请继续关注 Tesla Motors 首席执行官兼联合创始人埃隆·马斯克先生的讲话。所以我想，我希望，你知道，通过来到这里，也许回答一些问题，我可以解释为什么我认为电动汽车的机会非常巨大，以及为什么我认为，认为除火箭这一讽刺性的例外之外，所有交通工具都将完全电动化。嗯，而且，呃，所以真正的问题只是什么时候会完全电动化，而如果我们能让它更早实现电动化，那对世界会好得多。而且，而且水力压裂技术确实带来了重大危险，我认为它其实仍然，呃，处于一个，一个早期阶段，因为我，我认为

水力压裂可能会让世界上可获取的，嗯，石油和天然气增加到或许 10 倍。我们其实不知道，不知道它的完整范围，但可能大概是北方数量级，呃，这，这意味着对，对气候的潜在危害真的比以前大得多、多得多。嗯，而且，而且我们不能依赖稀缺性来推高石油和天然气的价格，嗯，并让那成为推动电动化的充分强制因素。呃，我们必须弄清楚如何让电动汽车本身具有吸引力，嗯，而不、不依赖高油价这种经济强制因素。谢谢。我们让几个，呃，加拿大男孩谈论高速汽车和火箭，还有什么能更好？如果你要创办 2 家企业，我猜

自然而然的起点可能不会是火箭和汽车。是的，嗯，呃，我认为可以肯定的是，如果你要给值得创办的公司排序，并问什么，呃，什么可能会成功，嗯，以及什么，你知道，什么，什么拥有最佳风险调整后回报，我很确定创办汽车公司、火箭公司会排在名单最末。所以，为什么是汽车，为什么是太空？呃，因为就汽车而言，呃，出现一款很棒的电动汽车范例非常重要，因为当时没有很棒的电动汽车，所以人们认为电动汽车就像高尔夫球车。因此它们速度慢、操控不好、续航短，或者难看，没有那么多功能。嗯，而那就是人们脑海里的印象，而我们有

向人们展示，电动汽车可以很快、性感、操控良好、续航长，并且是一款很棒的汽车，而这就是我们用 Tesla Roadster 所做的事情。所以，真正重要的是以某种方式打破常规，打破这，去纠正那种认为，呃，人们无法制造出优秀电动汽车的误解。而且，然后，呃，然后还要表明，如果你制造了一款具备所有这些特征的电动汽车，会有很多人购买它，因为即使在我们造出这款车之后，你知道，很多人还是说，好吧，是的，你们造出了这款电动跑车，但没人会买它。然后，所以我们必须证明，是的，它确实有需求，Model S 也是如此。嗯，然后是未来的 Model 3，证明有可能造出一款有吸引力、长续航的大众市场电动汽车，那，嗯

我认为那，那是我将近 10 年前在关于 Tesla 的第一篇博客文章中概述的战略的第 3，呃，部分。嗯，所以那就是，你曾遇到几个人质疑你，我是说，当，当你回顾过去，几个，只是几个，只是几个人，对吧，每个，你知道，零零星星。如果我们回到 2008 年，你经历了几次火箭发射失败，车库里停着很多 Tesla，这，这里存在一些问题。转眼之间，你获得了 NASA 的资助，一份来自 NASA 的巨额合同，金额为 $1。

50亿，而且你也为汽车公司获得了资金，但你当时已经到了谷底，对吧？我是说，你当时，是的，我认为强调这一点很重要，因为如果你看看，比如现在的 Tesla 和 SpaceX，人们认为，他们有点认为，好吧，也许它们一直都是，它们始终处于健康状态，但事实并非如此。不，从一开始，我们就真的处境绝望。嗯，没有人会认真看待它，无论是火箭公司还是汽车公司。嗯，他们，他们只是觉得，好吧，他算是一个古怪的有钱人，他会赔光所有的钱。嗯，你知道，他们这样告诉过我好几次。嗯，我是说，我听到的最常见笑话是，你知道，怎样在汽车、汽车行业或火箭行业赚到一小笔财富，而包袱是你从

带着一个大的，对吧，嗯，所以我当时就想，我已经听过那个 J 太多次了，我会在他们呃有机会说出来之前直接把笑点告诉他们。嗯，那、那个，是的，所以，你差点精神崩溃，大概，我是说，这是个人问题，我离精神崩溃就差那么一点，但嗯，那个、那个，但我确实在想，2008年圣诞节前的那个星期日，那个星期日早晨醒来时想着，我从没想过自己会是那种可能不得不崩溃的人，但这是我有史以来最接近的一次，嗯，因为情况真的、真的非常危急。嗯，正如你呃之前说的，那年早些时候，我们的猎鹰 1 运载火箭前三次发射失败之后，呃，而且我确实没有为3次飞行预留足够的钱，所以我们不得不拼命地

设法凑出足够的钱进行第4次飞行，嗯，然后、然后Tesla在8年夏天的第12轮融资，因为整个金融市场都在崩溃，jam 和 tri 正在破产，没人愿意给我们钱。绝对不是创办汽车公司的理想时机。呃，我是说，试着为一家初创汽车公司筹资，而且它偏偏还是造电动汽车的，这听起来就像愚蠢的平方。嗯，你知道，投资者甚至会因为我们向他们开口而生气，就、就是我们、我们居然向他们开口，他们都会为此生气。而且、而且事实上，我们能够筹到钱让Tesla继续运营的唯一方式，是呃来自呃，就是大多数现有投资者呃同意为公司提供资金，而我把所有

我剩下的全部钱，呃，都投进了Tesla。所以嗯，仍然不是，它是、它是，你知道，总计大约为4000万美元，其中20来自我。嗯，然后、然后、然后我已经一分钱不剩了，之后不得不借钱付房租。嗯，而那让我们又撑了呃大约、大约6个月，直到2009年5月，当时嗯 dler 投资了Tesla。嗯，而那笔 diam 投资对Tesla的生存确实至关重要。事实上，很多人以为政府不知怎么把我们搞砸了或诸如此类，那其实并、不是真的。嗯，是那笔 dam 投资拯救了Tesla，不、不、不是政府资金。嗯，我们有史以来第一次从政府获得资金是在嗯2010年3月，那是在危机已经过去之后。嗯，而且它不是

你的意图甚至是让这件事盈利，我是说，你以为它实际上会在某个时候失败，对吧？嗯，什么时候，或者你不确定它会那么成功。在 Tesla 刚起步、只有我和几个人的时候，嗯，我认为、我认为我们也许有 10% 的成功概率。好的，你现在感觉如何？呃，嗯，现在我、我认为我们已经，现在、现在我认为某种程度的成功已经有保证了，但问题在于规模。嗯，所以 Tesla，Tesla 是成为某种小众汽车制造商，也许每年生产 100,000 辆汽车或类似数量，而这始终是超级、超级小的，你知道，那将是，嗯，是的，我是说 0。

1% 的市场份额，我认为那就是利基市场的定义，如果你是 0。

1%，你至少得越过小数点才不算小众。嗯，所以、所以那是一个、那是一个可能的 F，100,000，或者，是的，或者你公开声明的目标，到2020年达到500,000。是的，我、我想我们大概会嗯力争生产比那、比、比 thanat 更多的汽车。不一定在、在2020年之前，当然是500,000，但我认为我们大概会继续超过那个数字。你们会继续超过500,000。是的。好的，在什么时间内，什么样的时间范围内？嗯，比如说，我不知道，我想、我想我们应该、我们应该能够在10年内达到大概至少每年几百万辆汽车。所以到2030年？到，嗯，到2025年。哦，到2025年，好的。我们大概能达到每年几百万辆汽车。嗯，我们只是，我认为我们只会继续把我们的、我们的产量，嗯，尽、尽、尽、尽可能推高，因为我们的使命

从根本上说是呃推动世界转向电动汽车，所以如果我们不生产大量电动汽车，那么我们就没有尽我们所能。嗯，现在，我是说，话虽如此，我认为Tesla将实现的大部分益处，是通过嗯某种意义上在丛林中开辟一条道路，来、来、来、来展示 M 汽车能够做到什么之类的。所以我认为，所以你认为整个行业会采用更多……是的，我认为。

Jason ridlo reporting for americ jr.

com see Jason ridlo reporting from the Detroit Marriott at the Renaissance Center for the 2015 Automotive news World Congress stay tuned for remarks from Mr Elon Musk CEO and co-founder of Tesla Motors and so I think I'm hopeful that you know by coming here maybe answering some questions I can explain why I think the opportunity for electric cars is tremendous and why I think think that all transport with the ironic exception of rockets will go fully electric um and uh and so it's really just a question of when it goes fully electric and if we can make it go electric sooner then that will be much better for the world and and we do have significant danger with fracking technology which is I think really still uh at at a an early stage because I I think

fracking probably increases the accessible um oil and gas in the world by perhaps a factor of 10 we don't really know what what the full extent of it is but it's probably something like Northern magnitude uh which which means the potential harm to the to the climate is is really much much greater than it was before um and and we can't rely on scarcity to drive the price of oil and gas high um and and have that be an adequate forcing function uh to move electric so we have to figure out how to make electric cars themselves compelling um without without that economic forcing function of high gas prices thank you we against a couple of uh Canadian boys talking fast cars and Rockets could be better if you were going to launch two businesses I'm guessing the

natural place to start would probably not be rockets and cars yeah um uh I think for sure if you were to rank order companies to start and say what is the uh what is likely to succeed um and what you know what what has the best risk adjusted return pretty sure starting a car company a rocket company will be at the bottom of the list so so why cars in why space uh well because in the case of cars uh it was very important for there to be an example of an electric car that that was great like there were no great electric cars so people thought electric cars were like a golf cart so they were slow and didn't maneuver well and had low range or ugly didn't have as much functionality um and that's that's the picture that people had in their minds and we had

to show people that an electric car could be fast sexy handle well long range and be a great car and that's what we do with Tesla Roadster so it's really important to sort of just break the mold to break the m to address that misperception that uh one couldn't make a great electric car and and then uh and then to show that if you made electric car with all those attributes that lots of people would buy it because even after we made the car you know a lot of people said well yeah you've made this electric sports car but nobody's going to buy it then so we had to show yes there is demand for it and the same for the model S um and then with our model three down the road showing that it's possible to compelling long range Mass Market electric car that's um

I think that's that's the the third uh part of the strategy that I outlined with my first blog post about Tesla now almost 10 years ago um so that that's you had a few people doubting you I mean when when you go back to a few just a few just a few people right every you know here and there if we go back to 2008 you've had a couple of failed rocket launches you've got a lot of Teslas sitting around in the garage it's it's there are some issues there in an instant you receive funding from NASA a huge contract from NASA for $1.

5 billion and then you also get funding for the car company but you were at the bottom correct I mean you were yeah I think this is important to to to emphasize because if you look at say Tesla and SpaceX now and they think they sort of think well maybe it was always they were always in a healthy position but it wasn't no for the beginning we were in in really Dire Straits um no one would take it seriously either the rocket company or the car company um they they just thought well he's sort of an eccentric rich guy and he's going to lose all his money um you know they told me that several times um I me the most common joke I heard was you know how do you make a small fortune in in the car car business or the rocket business and the punch line is you start

with a large one right um so I was like I'd heard that J so many times I would just hit them with the punchline before they uh had a chance to say it um the the yeah so and you nearly had a nervous breakdown around I mean this a personal I'm that that close to nervous breakdown but um the the but I did think to myself um on the Sunday before Christmas in 2008 waking up this Sunday morning thinking I never thought I would I was someone who was capable of having to a break down but this is about as close as I've ever come um because things were so were really so dire um as you to uh earlier that year after the first three rockets had failed of our Falcon one vehicle uh and and I don't really uh allowed for enough money for three flights so we had to desperately

try to scrape together enough money for a fourth flight um and the and then with Tesla the financing round 12 in the summer of8 because the whole financial markets were crashing and jam and tri going bankrupt and nobody wanted to give us money not an ideal time to start a car company definitely not uh I mean try to raise money for a startup car company that's making electric cars to boot which is like like that sounded like stupidity Square um the you know investors would be angry that we even asked them like that that we that we even ask them that would be angry about that and and in fact the only way we were able to raise money to keep Tesla going was uh from uh is that that most of the existing investors uh agre to to fund the company and I put all

of all the money that I had remaining uh into Tesla so um it still wasn't it was it was you know amounted to about in total about $40 million 20 of which came from me um and then and and I was Tapped Out head to borrow money rant after that um and and that tied us over into uh for about about six months uh to May of 2009 when um dler invested in in Tesla um and that diam investment was really fundamental to to the survival of of Tesla in fact a lot of people think like somehow the government failed us out or anything that is actually not not true um it it was the dam investment that saved Tesla not not not Government funding um the first money we got from the government ever was in um March of 2010 and that was after the crisis have passed um and it wasn't

your intention to even that this would be profitable I mean you thought it was actually going to fail at some point right well when or you weren't sure it was going to be that successful at this at the start of Tesla when it was just me and a few guys um I thought I thought we maybe had a 10% chance of success okay how do you feel now uh well now I I think we've got now now I think this some degree of success is assured but it's a question of the magnitude um so does Tesla does Tesla become sort of a a niche car maker making maybe 100,000 cars a year or something like that which is always super super tiny you know that that would be um yeah I mean 0.

1% of market share is I think that's the definition of a niche if you're 0.

1% you have to at least get past decimal point to not be a niche um so so that that's one that's one possible F 100,000 or yeah or your stated goals of 500,000 by 2020 yeah I I think we'll probably um aim to do more cars than than thanat I'm not necessarily by by 2020 show 500,000 but I think we'll probably continue past that you'll continue past the 500,000 yes okay within which time within what kind of time frame um let's say I don't know I think I think should we should be able to get to probably at least a few million cars in 10 years a year so by 2030 by well by 2025 Oh by 2025 okay we can probably get to a few million cars a year um we just I think we're just going to keep driving our our volume um as as as as high as we can because our mission

is fundamentally to uh transition the world to electric cars so if we don't make a lot of electric cars then we're not doing as much as we can um now I mean that that being said I think most of the good that Tesla will accomplish is by um sort of cutting a path through the jungle to to to to show uh what can be done with M cars like so I think so you think that that the industry as a whole will adopt a greater yes I think