机器翻译,已尽力保留原意与数字
内容摘要
马斯克在 All-In 峰会上的炉边谈话,内容涵盖乌克兰、X、创作者经济、中国和 AI。
Musk's fireside chat at the All-In Summit covering Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China and AI.
中文实录Transcript
50 个段落
第 1 段
[掌声] 好,等等,我就——我就把你所有公司的名单念出来,埃隆。我知道它们,但我还是要念一遍,确保不会漏掉任何一家,因为现在实在太多了。呃,SpaceX 创始人、CEO、总工程师;呃,Tesla CEO、产品架构师和董事长;呃,x,呃,x 的所有者、董事长、CTO。
第 2 段
com;呃,Boring Company 创始人,Neuralink 和 Open Ai 联合创始人,以及 mus 基金会主席。我都说全了吗?让你的 Winner's ride,然后我们向粉丝开源了它,他们已经彻底疯狂了。[音乐] 你在哪里?我的意思是,这就要来了,这有点荒谬。你在星港哪里?嗯,我目前在 FL,所以这是——这是一个星链和 Flake 连接。你在开玩笑吗?那——哦对,运行得相当不错,是吧?我想只有 1 个,等等,我想这是 stalling 工作方式的其中 1 个。呃,在高空飞行的飞机上,这种设备只有 1 个,对吧?它就在你的飞机上,就这 1 个,101。已经有多架客机配备 stalling,未来还会有更多。Starling 连接,当你假设它——
第 3 段
正常工作时,你甚至分辨不出自己是在地面还是空中,嗯,因为与 Jo satellit 不同,它的延迟,你知道,实际上会低于 20 毫秒。所以,嗯,它是——事实上,对很多——我认为对一些人来说,飞机上的 Sonic 连接会比他们家里的连接更好。那会非常棒。嗯,H,星舰进展如何?看到第一次,呃,发射令人难以置信,但我了解到你们正接近第 2 次。我知道你一直非常努力地做这件事,团队也一直很努力。嗯,你觉得什么时候能让下一艘升空?嗯,它进入轨道的概率有多大?呃,好,我们已经在星港把第 2 艘堆叠起来了,所以它已经准备好出发。嗯,而且,呃,我们完成了那个——
第 4 段
在上周,我们相信我们已经——我们已经完成了 rain,嗯,是 FAA 要求我做的,所以希望我们很快就能拿到许可证。嗯,但实际上,目前阻碍星舰第 2 个 plan 的唯一事情就是 Right fire 批准。哇。对于它进入轨道的概率,你的预期,呃,或者希望是多少?这只是时间问题。是啊,获得批准文件之类的要花多长时间。嗯,所以目前这实际上取决于 FAA。是啊,但——但说到进入轨道,你觉得呢?哦,我们在采用一种叫作热级间分离的新分级技术,呃,在这种技术中,嗯,你在助推级仍然点火时,点燃 upstage 发动机或飞船发动机。嗯,这算是最高效的做法——
第 5 段
进入轨道的火箭的级间分离,嗯,但我们上次任务没有尝试,而——而这次任务正在尝试。我们认为总体上会更好。嗯,但我认为这次——我认为可能有——我希望有远高于 50% 的概率到达级间分离。嗯,如果热级间分离,嗯,这种新的分离方法,呃,能起作用,那么进入 Orit 的概率也许接近 50%。所以我会说,也许,你知道,在 sign 的情况下,进入 toor 的概率可能高于——我会说可能高于 30%,而此前我说的是低于 50。呃,就复杂性而言,与职业生涯中处理过的其他问题相比,这个问题有多复杂?呃,好,所以,我是说,制造一枚尺寸超过 SAT 5 两倍的火箭,嗯,你知道,它是——事实上,加上——
第 6 段
火箭的一个 extra,它的推力大约会是土星 5 号登月火箭的 3 倍。嗯,whever,它被设计成完全且快速地重复使用,而,你知道,SAT 是完全一次性的;至于 baline,我们仍然会消耗掉上面级,呃,但我们——我们会回收 boo 级,大家可能已经在 The Rocker liing 视频中看到了。我们也能够回收 varant,嗯,用——用 falc。但这些东西确实会降落到海上,所以把它们带回岸上并做好 figh G 准备需要一段时间。你知道,这件事——所以——所以这是星舰的规模,而另一个事实是,它被设计成完全且 R 可重复使用。所以助推器和飞船都会返回发射场,由这些巨大的 meaz 臂接住,你已经——
第 7 段
在 congress 的《哥斯拉》里看到过。呃,它基本上 bad——从,你知道,B 空中接住这枚巨型火箭,把它放回发射台,然后为发射做好准备。所以它将能够达到,你知道,基本上是飞机水平的飞行频率。嗯,但——但它比,比如说 747 或 8380 大得多。嗯,你想——我们能不能,嗯,谈谈——是上周末发生的事情吗,整个乌克兰 Starling 事件?你能不能给我们讲讲,比如事情进展的 Tik Tok,究竟发生了什么?比如你是怎样被迫作决定的?比如,在那个决策室里——如果真有这样一个房间——或者不论你当时在哪里,那是什么感觉?你当时正试图弄清楚:我要让它继续开着吗?我要关掉它吗?到底发生了什么?人们一定一直在狂轰滥炸你。关于当时是什么情况、你如何作出这个——凡是你能分享的。
第 8 段
决定。嗯,是啊,我——我,所以我在理解情况时确实有一点误解。嗯,你知道,很明显,我们 St sex 已经为,你知道,为乌克兰提供了,呃,星链连接。嗯,实际上从战争开始以来就是如此,呃,实际上是在战争开始后,我想,几天之内。嗯,正如乌克兰,呃,州长所说,S 对乌克兰的 FS 起到了关键作用。所以,你知道,他们其实已经说过很多次了,尽管媒体忘了提这件事。嗯,所以,而且事实上,他们在 Twitter 上说过——你 X,只知道在他的 Twitter 上——要把这叫对还需要一点时间。是啊,需要一点时间。[笑声] 嗯,所以,你知道,你不必——你不必听信我的话,只要去读他们发布的内容。嗯,你知道,呃,所以——呃,所以 son 一直极其——
第 9 段
乌克兰的战争行动帮助极大。嗯,我们已经自掏腰包付出了非常可观的资金来帮助他们。嗯,而且,嗯,在这件事发生时,克里米亚周边地区,嗯,实际上是关闭的。它被关闭的原因,最初其实是因为美国制裁俄罗斯,嗯,而我们实际上不被允许——这也包括制裁范围内的克里米亚——未经政府明确批准,我们实际上不被允许为受制裁的国家开启,呃,连接。嗯,我们没有得到美国政府的批准。所以,嗯,所以——所以基本上,呃,呃,你知道,乌克兰没有——他们没有给我们任何,任何事先警告或提醒,什么都没有。嗯,我们只是接到了乌克兰政府那种,呃,紧急来电,说我们——
第 10 段
需要打开 primier。基本上是在半夜,而我们就说,你在说什么?你知道,你——which's it four。嗯,你知道,然后,你知道,我们基本上,嗯,弄清楚了这有点像针对,嗯,俄罗斯 fet Sasol 的 bhit 式攻击。所以他们其实是在要求我们真正地——真正地,实际上参与一次重大战争行动。嗯,而且,嗯,你知道,好吧,我们——所以,我们当然对乌克兰政府有巨大的 EMP 支持。嗯,乌克兰政府不能管理我们,呃,人民或公司,事情不是这么运作的。而且,埃隆,如果——如果我能插一句——但我应该说,你知道,虽然我不是拜登总统最热情的支持者,但如果——如果我收到总统指令要求打开它,我会照做,因为我确实——
第 11 段
把总统视为国家的首席执行官,无论我是否想要那个职位给总统,我都 S 尊重这个职位。所以如果——如果,你知道,如果我们收到——如果我收到总统那种请求——说清楚,是美国总统——嗯,那么我——我——我会打开它,你知道。所以,但没有收到这样的请求。那——那是一个真的——那是一个非常有意思的观点,而且,嗯,你——我是说,jamas 所指的是,你现在正遭到攻击。我看到前几天在 CNN 上有一个,你知道,有 Jake Tapper,呃,采访我们的国务卿。他简直情绪激动,基本上在因为这件事攻击你。呃,David,David,我是说,值得肯定的是,secetary Lincoln 其实相当支持,尽管那些荒谬的——
第 12 段
呃,你知道,CN 的 Jake taper 的指控和诱导性问题。是啊,他没有上钩,在这一点上要肯定 sery Lincoln,因为他完全没有,嗯,你知道,上钩。是啊,好吧,对我来说,这是“好心没好报”的一个例子,因为如果你从没提供——我希望——我希望有些善举不会没好报。我的意思是,如果你——如果你从未把 Starling 免费、自愿地提供给乌克兰政府,你只是自愿提供了它,那么现在就不会有人因为你没有打开它、让他们能够对 Crea 发动攻击而抨击你,对吧?是啊。嗯,另外我要指出的 1 件事是,你不打开它的理由,也就是你不想参与一场可能重大的——
第 13 段
升级,恰恰——恰恰也是拜登政府在战争的那个阶段没有向乌克兰提供 attam attam 导弹的理由。现在他们可能正在改变主意,但他们非常担心——政府当时担心——对 Crea 的攻击会引发这场战争的某种巨大升级。所以你不仅没有收到拜登总统的指令,你当时的想法也与他们高度一致,而——而现在你却因此受到攻击。你提到了一件事,就是你们为此付出了 SpaceX 很大的经济成本。你能不能——你能不能稍微谈谈?因为我不确定人们是否明白现在是谁在为什么付钱、谁还没有得到付款,以及,你知道,等等。存在,嗯,好吧——
第 14 段
正如你所说,很多人都为这项行动作出了贡献。呃,staring 是乌克兰政府以及急救人员之类基本服务的基础通信骨干。嗯,而且,你知道,它被用于——我们希望是在前线相对和平地使用。它是前线上唯一能用的东西,其他一切都被俄罗斯人干扰了。所以它是唯一能用的东西,不是——不是其中 1 个。[掌声] 你知道,但——但我认为你得稍微想想,比如,你知道,嗯,你知道,举 Paul har 这个实际例子,然后问,这对日本来说结果如何?结果一点都不好,对吧?嗯,因为这是一场——一场战术胜利、战略失败。它激怒了美国公众——
第 15 段
嗯,他们自然想为 Z,你知道,Zach 复仇。我认为,你知道,虽然我不认为规模相同,但确实存在这种可能:某种 many P Hava 会导致敌对行动大规模升级。嗯,但这不会——这不会——这不会击败俄罗斯,它会激怒俄罗斯。你是捐赠这个网络,还是他们付钱给你?抱歉。是啊,所以,嗯,我其实不确定目前最终账目是什么,但,呃,我——我——我想在某个时候——某个时候,你计算过,我们支持这些事情的某种成本大约是 1 亿美元。现在,这 1 亿美元没有计入,嗯,整个 Starling 星座面临的大量风险,呃,因为俄罗斯希望把整个——
第 16 段
东西删除。嗯,所以,呃,你知道,没有人为此补偿我们。嗯,而且,呃,所以假设我们的控制中心遭到,呃,摧毁和网络攻击,他们,你知道,他们指挥卫星翻转,嗯,并摧毁整个系统,呃,或者使用反卫星武器。嗯,所以,你知道,这些——这是相当重大的风险,嗯,我们没有因此得到任何补偿,而且显然会给整个 stalling 系统造成灾难,而这个系统,你知道,正接近 100 亿美元。埃隆,你认为现任政府说,嘿,10 mil million,然后事实上,我要说,BR meing 的事情之一是,正如你——正如你看到的,已经为,呃,乌克兰拨出了非常大一笔资金。你知道,我不确定——
第 17 段
目前总额是多少,但一定接近 1000 亿,或者在 800 亿到 1000 亿之间。嗯,你知道,现在所有其他的,你知道,向乌克兰提供支持的某种供应方、美国供应方都得到了付款。那么为什么 SpaceX 应该被排除在外?这没有道理。我们——我们正在做最有价值的事情之一,却得到最少的钱。这 iser。嗯,但,你知道,尽管如此,我们仍然很乐意继续——继续做下去。而且,嗯,埃隆,拜登政府是不是有意针对你?为什么?H,什么让你有了这个想法?[笑声] 是啊,但让我问你:拥有并控制——我不认为整个政府都在针对我。我认为政府中可能有些方面并不,呃,或者,你知道,有些与——
第 18 段
与——与——与 resent Biden 利益一致的方面,可能并不,嗯,希望我有好结果。嗯,我不知道,你知道,他们的问题究竟是什么,但政府的武器化似乎确实在显著增加。嗯,而且,嗯,我会说,实际上是检察裁量权在很多很多领域遭到某种滥用,而我认为这——这对于,嗯,你知道,对于——我不知道——让这成为 potis 以及政治与——与——与政府机构的事情,真的很危险。这——这实在是,而且我认为从,你知道,从——从比如,呃,你知道,民主党的立场,或者说 B 拜登政府的立场来看,我认为这里的危险是,如果检察裁量权遭到重大,呃,嗯,必然使用,比如有人说,好吧,每个人的——
第 19 段
法律面前人人平等,是的,但你是谁,你选择追究谁,嗯,如果,如果你,如果你追究的是在独立选民看来,呃,微不足道的案件,同时却忽视严重罪行,嗯,很难想象这会争取到很多独立选民,会争取到深思熟虑的独立选民。你买下 X 后,情况有变化吗?是的,我认为确实发生了一些变化。嗯,你知道,我,我会说,这个,这个,这种,你知道,X 平台真正要成为,呃,一个公平的竞技场,一个支持,嗯,你知道,这个国家大多数人的公共广场,比如说中间的 80% 左右。嗯,现在,嗯,所有社交媒体其实一直都不是这样,所有社交媒体实际上都非常、非常偏左,
第 20 段
极度偏左,而 Twitter 确实极度偏左。嗯,你知道,对,嗯,共和党候选人、利益或声音的封禁,呃,实际上至少是压制左、左派声音比例的 10 倍,你知道,在整个 Twitter 上。嗯,所以,所以我努力做的是把它移到中间,从比如左派的立场看,这似乎是在向右移动。一切都是相对的,如果你站在左边的话,但其实不是,它只是在移向中间,仅此而已。嗯,这是为了真正代表整个国家,嗯,而,而不仅仅是,嗯,这个国家的一半,甚至可能不到一半。所以实际上就是这样。因此我认为这里其实没什么值得惊慌的,你知道,只不过是,
第 21 段
它的目标是成为一个包容整个国家,以及其他,你知道,以及全世界的市民广场。仅此而已。它一直,嗯,我想如果我没记错的话,你是在万圣节周末接管,嗯,X Twitter 的。呃,当你到达那栋楼、拿到钥匙时,嗯,David 和我很幸运,当你拿到钥匙时我们和你一起在那里,而且我们得以,嗯,查看了一番。嗯,这是扭转局面后的第 10 个月,呃,我认为你接管它时,它并不是一个高效运转的组织。公司现在处于什么状况?而且我想,你对进展满意吗?因为看起来新功能正在推出,产品迭代速度很棒。呃,显然广告业务一直面临挑战,但感觉已经出现了一些复苏迹象。那么,那么你对这次
第 22 段
收购现在感觉如何?是的,嗯,我应该说,我们最近看到广告显著增长,这很好。嗯,所以这,你知道,如果这个趋势持续下去,嗯,我认为公司在广告方面的财务状况会非常好。嗯,所以就积极进展而言,那似乎是其中之一。嗯,而且,嗯,从功能的角度看,我认为那些正在使、使用这个系统的人,我认为我们,我认为我们可能在过去,我知道,1 年里交付的新功能,比过去,你知道,整个 tter 在 5 年里交付的还多。你知道,功能,功能开发的速度确实非常快。嗯,而且这实际上是由原公司约 15% 的人员完成的,嗯,也许稍多一点,15 20%。嗯,所以它确实,你知道,
第 23 段
很高效。你知道,归根结底,你必须说,你知道,像 X Twitter 平台这样的系统,呃,有多复杂?嗯,你知道,坦率地说,它和群聊有多大不同?它就像一个大规模的群聊。嗯,所以,他,我认为你不需要一支大军来维护群聊。是的,是的,我是说,它不是自动驾驶平台,而参与它的人员可能是 Tesla 自动驾驶平台的 10 倍,这似乎很疯狂。整个自动驾驶 AI 软件团队有 200 人,而他们所做的事情比 Twitter 复杂得多,或者,你知道,复杂很多。所以你,现在显然还有其他需要完成的事情,比如广告销售,嗯,OB 网络运营,以及,嗯,你能谈谈,这确实不是,它不是一个,它,
第 24 段
并不庞大,我不像我说的那样,甚至不了解我,因、因、因为我们为什么在这里,而且我认为,你知道,那些,嗯,仍在公司的人显然非常高效地,呃,创建和交付新功能。嗯,而且,嗯,你知道,我们不断看到某种 RedBoard 使用情况,而那个,你知道,最珍贵的数字其实是,是移动设备报告的用户秒数,尤其是 iOS。iOS,呃,iOS 报告的屏幕使用时间是,是最难操纵的指标。嗯,而,而那些数字极其,极其好。嗯,所以,你知道,我当然对事情的发展方向保持谨慎乐观,而且我,我感觉公司刚刚,你知道,就在最近刚刚转、转过了拐点。嗯,跟我们讲讲,你知道,说,嗯,至少是适度繁荣,
第 25 段
并且,并且希望是显著的。跟我们讲讲,嗯,收入分成的成功。你为什么这样做?然后就是你对创作者经济抱有的愿景,以及你希望它演变和发展成什么。是的,我是说,道理很简单,如果,如果你是一名创作者,而你需要,嗯,需要靠自己所做的事情谋、生,那么就必须有,嗯,你知道,面向创作者的公平报酬、有竞争力的报酬,无论他们在做,你知道,写、他们写作,还是图片、视频,不管是什么。嗯,而且,呃,所以我们,而且我们其实不是在,你知道,发明什么新东西。我们只是,你知道,就像 YouTube 对创作者所做的那样,他们会通过广告进行收益分成。嗯,所以我们也在通过广告进行收益分成。嗯,我们还,
第 26 段
启用了对账户的直接订阅,在那里,不管某人,你知道,你可以制作音频、视频、长篇文字,任何内容,而且你可以订阅某个人。嗯,那显然,你知道,那也是订阅者谋生的一种方式,也是创作者谋生的一种方式。所以我们的意图是让 ACT 平台成为创作者最好的家园,呃,如果你有有趣的内容,那么你,你会想把它放在一个平台上。嗯,你知道,关于算法之类的东西存在很多问题。我,我应该提一下,算法,呃,我认为几乎全部都已经开源,而且我们会,呃,我认为很快就会将整个东西开源。呃,它实际上尚未完全开源的唯一原因,
第 27 段
是因为我们对这些代码有点难为情,需要在,呃,把某些极其令人难为情的东西公开之前,先把它整理一下。但关键是,比如说,我们希望透明度能建立信任,而且如果你,嗯,呃,如果你可以使用,呃,你知道,公开算法,你知道,H 算法,独立地重现一篇帖子在 xform 上会有多火的结果,嗯,那才是我们真正希望达到的地方。嗯,所以你,你大概,你大概知道应该期待什么。嗯,以及为什么某件事会发生。嗯,现在,现在我应该说,我们正在,我们正在努力优化,呃,用户在平台上的时间。嗯,这自然意味着,嗯,发布某人观看时间更长的内容,会比以下内容获得更高优先级,
第 28 段
也就是短内容,呃,只因为系统正试图最大,它,它渴望最大化,呃,我所谓的你不后悔的用户汇款。所以大体上,我们要怎样,嗯,如果我们成功了,你会想在平台上花更多时间,而且你会想,并且在花了这些时间之后,你不会后悔。嗯,我是说,说到 Tik Tok,嗯,你知道,很多人告诉我,他们在 Tik Tok 上花了很多时间,而且他们后悔了。嗯,我们不想成为那样。我们希望你在 X 平台上花很多时间,并学到很多东西,呃,你,你得到娱乐,而且你不会后悔。所以,当你在优化,你知道,用户分钟数,以及像我说的,理想情况下不后悔的使用分钟数时,呃,呃,如果你,你在系统上发布的内容越多,
第 29 段
那件东西获得的触达就越多,因为系统会说,哦,这些用户在平台上花了更多时间,因为他们,他们,你知道,比如在看你的播客,或,呃,阅读,嗯,一篇长篇文章,或观看某段视频。嗯,相比之下,这会获得多得多的时间,比如如果你,如果你链接到其他地方的视频,或者链接到其他地方的文章,那,那只是,那,那,那,那意味着你,你只会在那篇帖子上停留很短的时间。因此系统就会觉得,好吧,那并没有增加,呃,用户时间,所以它不会,它不会被排除,但相比在系统上原生发布内容,它会得到更少的关注。你想谈谈,嗯,关于,呃,ADL 和你,呃,大概,这件事目前处于什么状态,是否,
第 30 段
你正在提起诉讼,还是没有,或者这件事进展到哪里了吗?嗯,我想我们得再看看。我是说,嗯,是的,我是说,事实是 ad 确实发起了一场抵制。他们不称之为抵制,而称之为暂停,但你知道,永不停息的 po 就是 isot。所以,而且,而且,而且我们就是,我们看到,呃,美国广告大幅下降。我们看到亚洲的广告基本没有变化,但在 ADL 势力强大的国内,我们看到,呃,广告下降了 60%。所以你知道,那,呃,相当剧烈。嗯,而且,嗯,这是尽管,你知道,我们反复展示了对该系统的分析,包括第三方对该系统的分析,而这些分析实际上显示,呃,仇恨内容的浏览量,呃,下降了。所以,你知道,掌握所有数据的第三方进行了分析,并表示,
第 31 段
实际上,安全言论更少了。嗯,我认为 ADL 的问题不是仇恨言论的问题,显然也不是任何闪族主义的问题。呃,而是 ad,嗯,以及许多其他组织已经变成了活动人士组织。嗯,它们的行动远远超出了它们,呃,声称的使命或最初的使命,而且,而且我认为远远超出了这些组织的捐赠者认为它们正在做的事情。嗯,你知道,a 极力反对并且事实上在促成其发生方面发挥了关键作用的事情之一,就是 ad 在让,嗯,Donald Trump 被平台化一事上发挥了关键作用。嗯,然后当我们,我们,你知道,我们恢复了这个账户,嗯,他们,他们非常明确地表示,他们认为仅仅恢复他的账户,在,你知道,Twitter,现在,呃,那,那,
第 32 段
那就构成了仇恨言论,比如他甚至还什么都没说,你知道。嗯,他至少得说点什么或发布点什么,才会有新增的痛苦、痛苦内容。这太荒谬了。嗯,而且这和反犹主义有什么关系?比如,你知道,Donald Trump 的女婿是犹太人,他的犹太 gr,我很确定他不反犹,好吗。嗯,你知道,他参加了婚礼。所以,嗯,这,这,所以,所以问题在于,很多这样的,嗯,组织,像我说的,它们确实已经被 W 议程俘获,而且它们正在推动,嗯,你知道,严肃的信念和价值观,而我认为这些信念和价值观常常与它们的,它们被做成的信念相悖,而那,呃,就是我们面临的状况。嗯,是的,我,我要指出的是,那两个立场,
第 33 段
你所采取的、给你招致最多攻击的立场,第 1,捍卫言论自由;第 2,倡导和平。你怎么敢,你怎么敢,你怎么敢。而且有一篇文章,就像颠倒世界什么的。是的,我们生活在一个上下颠倒的世界。今天的《纽约客》有一篇文章称你为超级反派,因为你倡导和平并保护第一修正案。我是说,这简直完全颠倒了。你想让人们吃蔬菜吗?在这一刻,你真的已经无法区分真正的新闻和恶搞了。不,比如,如果那是 bon be 或《洋葱报》,不,真的,你正在做一个,你正在做,而且,而且把横幅换成,你知道,Babylon b 或随便什么《洋葱报》之类的,恶搞,某种恶搞的东西,然后会觉得,哦,
第 34 段
那是个不错的笑话,你知道。嗯,是的,超级骨头通常会倡导和平,那当然,你知道。嗯,我们想消除所有核武器。嘿,嗯,等一下,那,呃,最有趣的,最有趣的、没能登上 SNL 的小品,我们当时正在研讨创作的,可能是觉醒版 James Bond。我们想做这样一个觉醒版 James Bond,Eli 会告诉你其中一些笑话,那非常好笑。但后来我们刚刚谈到《卫报》爆出的一篇关于新版 James Bond 小说的报道,而短篇故事就是觉醒,它真的就是我们 2 年前做的恶搞。呃,Elon,说到和平,我们有,我们也有一个 grais 现实,就像,你知道,那些,呃,你知道,尚未成真的阴谋论,那,那,那份清单,你知道,相当短。嗯,
第 35 段
事实证明相当短。嗯,而且我们确实需要产生更多阴谋论,因为我们快没东西来寻找真相了。[笑声] 好吧,check off 是准确的。嗯,所以,呃,我不知道谁是,你知道,这些阴谋论的负责人,但,但是,你知道,我们只是需要更多素材。呼叫 Alex Jones。Elon,我们今天请来了 Graham Alison。我知道你谈过他的书。我们请来了 Ray Doo,也请来了 Ro kna。嗯,我们谈了很多关于中国、美国与中国关系的话题。你有几家企业在中国拥有深厚的供应商和客户关、关系。鉴于正在发生的事情,而且显然美国对华政策的基调已经变化,氛围已经变化,华盛顿是怎样的,硅谷是怎样的,以及,
第 36 段
如今每个人是如何谈论与中国的关系的,事情变化得如此之快,真是相当疯狂。嗯,作为与中国存在所有这些商业关系的企业领导者,你如何作出决策,以及事情如何变化,你又如何看待这将走向何方?当然。嗯,我是说,我们在这里澄清一下。嗯,你知道,SpaceX 没有,呃,SpaceX 的 Starling 在中国毫无业务。它们不,它们不被允许。你知道,SpaceX 确实发射,呃,中国卫星,而星链在中国被放弃。所以说清楚,SpaceX、星链在中国的业务为 0。嗯,呃,就 Tesla 而言,呃,我们 4 座汽车工厂中的 1 座,呃,其中 1 座位于,呃,中国。所以,嗯,你知道,这是一个,这是一个重要的汽车市场。呃,但它,呃,你知道,所以我正在努力,
第 37 段
要说的是,到目前为止,我的商业利益中绝大部分,如果如果我我是 peing MTI,而我希望自己不是,嗯,都在中国以外,我们把这点说清楚。嗯,那么关于——话虽如此,我认为我很了解中国。我去过那里很多次,多年来,我在许多层级与中国的,呃,高层领导会过面,所以我我认为,嗯,至少作为中国的一个外部人士,我对它有相当不错的了解。所以,而且 Tesla 在中国国内非常成功。所以,嗯,你知道,这里的根本问题其实是台湾。嗯,中国其实从,呃,大约半个世纪以来,或者说到现在可能更久了,更久了,他们的政策一直是要,嗯,重新统一台湾与中国,呃,从这个立场来看
第 38 段
你知道,这可能就类似于夏威夷或或类似的地方,就像是中国不可分割的一部分,却被武断地排除在中国之外。嗯,主要是因为美国阻止了——美国太平洋舰队阻止了,呃,任何任何形式的,嗯,武力统一行动。所以现在,情况真的正走到这样一个地步,嗯,一年比一年更是如此,呃,中国的军事实力正在增强,而我们的实力或多或少,呃,保持不变。而且从战略上说,你知道,你可以想象,试图保卫台湾并不不容易,因为它它非常靠近中国海岸。嗯,所以会到一个节点,如果,你知道,大概可能就在不不太遥远的未来,中国在该地区的军事实力将远远超超过美国在该地区的军事实力。而如果要理解,呃,中国的
第 39 段
政策,而且可能确实应该按字面理解,嗯,那么就会采取某种强制性的,呃,强制性的 beuse,为了,你知道,呃,把台湾纳入中国。这就是他们所说的,嗯,如果如果没有外交解决方案,就会有一个通过武力实现的解决方案。让我,嗯,如果可以的话。所以这里真正发生的是,你已经看到,你知道,这种情况出现在在许多领域,而我认为这种节奏会加快,就是,你知道,中国和美国都在为一场潜在的对决做准备,呃,你知道,在南中国 CA。所以,嗯,这就是为什么你会看到,对美国技术出口到中国的限制越来越多,呃,比如 Nvidia,你知道,Nvidia H100 正被——而且不允许你把它们运往中国。嗯,我认为还会越来越多。你你也不不被允许
第 40 段
向中国运送先进的造船设备。嗯,所以,我猜,你知道,你知道,中国会以某些对等制裁作出回应。嗯,而且我认为,在接下来的接下来几年里,你会看到这种针——这种对等制裁不断增加。所以我认为温度相当,呃,非常高。嗯,然后我们会看到,究竟会不会有一个,呃,通过外交方式实现重新统一的解决方案,还是一个非外交解决方案。你,呃,但已经明确表示,从他们的立场来看,无论如何都会有一个解决方案。是的,你提到了,呃,Nvidia,那么让我谈谈 AI,暂时把话题带回到这上面。你能告诉我们,嗯,你对 open Ai 那段经历的遗憾,还有其中积极的方面吗?然后,你对 X 的目标是什么?嗯,AI
第 41 段
讨论肯定是一个很长的话题,或者可能会是一个很长的话题。嗯,你知道,数字超级智能,那可能是人类有史以来创造的最重要的技术。嗯,而且而且它可能比,嗯,核武器更加危险。所以,嗯,你知道,在创建 opening eye 这件事上,目的是避免形成一个单极世界,在那里,嗯,Google 及其子公司 deat mine,呃,你知道,将控制压倒性数量的 AI 人才、算力和和资源。嗯,那么这在某种程度上就取决于,基本上,Larry paage,呃,以及 serge BR,嗯,还有 Eric 认为事情应该如何发展,因为他们,他们3个人,或者3人中的2人,控制着 Alphabet,因为他们拥有超级投票权。而且,嗯,你知道,我相当
第 42 段
基于我与 lar paig 的一些谈话,呃,其中,嗯,你知道,你因为我支持人类而称我是一个 species,所以,嗯,我就想,你到底站在哪一边,你知道,呃,嗯,你知道,我想,而且,呃,所以所以我感到不安,嗯,整个数字超级智能的未来竟掌握在一个 equ a species、因为支持人类的人手里。嗯,你知道,这怎么可能不让人不安,呃,所以 opening eye 最初是作为一个开源非营利组织创建的,而现在则是一个 close to be——它应该改名叫 closed for Max no profit AI。嗯,它是,它是封闭的。嗯,而且据我所知,他们的目标是,我认为,赚——试图赚1000亿。我想,根据 S,是从某个地方获得1000亿美元,用于某种巨量算力,呃,以创造数字之神。嗯,显然,所有的 waste
第 43 段
顺便说一下,都存储在一个通用分隔值文件中,所以我们的数字之神将会是一个 CSV 文件。我们要怎么导入它?文件导入。嗯,看看会发生什么。嗯,所以所以,不管怎样,所以所以现在开场,呃,也与 Microsoft 非常紧密地站在同一阵线。你知道,Microsoft 实际上是——你,嗯,开放服务器运行在 Azure 和 Microsoft 数据中心里,你知道,所以实际上,我认为归根结底,你所看到的是 Microsoft 比 open AI 拥有更多控制权。他们可以访问全部源代码,他们可以访问,嗯,你知道,gb4 以及未来版本的所有权重。所以他们对这个,这个东西拥有全部权利。它并不是,嗯,实际上在任何时候,他们都可以切断 open AI。我认为 open AI 并没有充分意识到自己对对 Microsoft 的依赖,即使 Microsoft 确实违反了某些
第 44 段
合同,他们只会陷入诉讼,你知道,会持续很多年,嗯,所以实际上,你面对的是某种 Google 和 Microsoft 之间的竞争。至于 Google,如前所述,我担心,你知道,呃,抱歉,是他们对 AI 安全不够上心,而且有充分理由担心。然后 Microsoft 就是,我认为,你知道,一个追求利润的组织,嗯,而且我,你知道,我觉得这本身很好,但嗯,我不能说,比如,你知道,很难说 m 在道德决策方面有着惊人的过往记录。所以,嗯,说得委婉一点。总之,所以,所以,所以当时就像,好吧,听着,我们就……所以我认为,让我们尝试创建第3家有竞争力的公司。我,我,我确实认为,从 AI 的角度看,Tesla 被低估了。就现实世界 AI 而言,Tesla 拥有最好的现实世界
第 45 段
AI。所以,呃,你知道,希望 xAI 和 Tesla 加在一起,能形成某种第3个竞争者。或者你会考虑——听着,你在 Tesla 开源了你的专利,你非常支持开源,你也开源了 X 的源代码——你是否会考虑发布 Dojo 和 FSD,把它们更多地作为供其他所有人使用的平台底层,还是说这目前基本不予考虑?嗯,我不知道这是否,呃,你知道,以 Dojo 或我们车内的推理硬件为例,我们的推理、推理计算机——顺便说一句,它实际上比 Dojo 复杂得多得多——嗯,你知道,我们有,我知道,大约 400万辆汽车,里面装有 highp 加速的 AI 和 Par 计算机。嗯,比如,开源芯片设计并不意味着你突然就能得到那个东西。对,你
第 46 段
知道,所以,嗯,你可以开源软件,但我认为芯片设计……唯一真正能使用那些芯片的,或者真正算得上能使用的,对,会是某个愿意在计算机开发上花费数十亿美元的人。所以总之,我认为,我认为就,呃,你知道,别说 Optimus 真的很有意思,嗯,不管怎样,我认为总体而言,Tesla 是最领先的 AI 公司之一,嗯,而且在某些方面,当涉及现实、现实世界 AI,也就是理解现实世界并通过自动驾驶对此实际作出反应时,它是领先的 AI 公司。因此,而且我认为这将成为 AGI 或通用超级智能解决方案的一部分。所以,嗯,就 Tesla 而言,我认为我们有一种良好的治理
第 47 段
结构,因为不存在超级投票权或类似的东西。所以如果我,你知道,发疯了,Tesla 的 CH 可以投票把我赶出去。嗯,你知道,我拥有足够的投票权,能够,你知道,我认为产生一定程度的影响,但即使我在做疯狂的事情,也不足以让我继续留下。所以我认为那其实很好。嗯,很好。嗯,有人告诉我,我们必须在……结束他。哦,好吧。呃,在结束前再问一下 FSD,然后我就让你走。嗯,我们今年早些时候聊过,你当时说,呃,嘿,也许 ChatGPT 4。
第 48 段
0 般的时刻即将在自动驾驶领域到来,而且,呃,我,我一直在试用这个测试版,嗯,对,你觉得它离实现还有多近?因为它为我完成的一些行程相当令人印象深刻。最新的测试版非常不可思议。对,它相当、相当酷。我,你知道,我以前在高速公路上很喜欢用它,而在街道上我会觉得,好吧,但现在我在街道上也越来越多地使用它。所以你现在处于什么位置,你目前对它感觉如何?而且我,我想这些年来你对它作过很多预测,嗯,但它确实感觉已经非常接近了。对,我认为它,我认为它非常接近,呃,你知道,这样一种情形:即使没有人类监督或干预,一次安全行程的概率也
第 49 段
会比由人驾驶时更高,也就是使用 FSD 且没有监督,即使你是汽车的渗漏物。嗯,我们已经非常接近这一点了。你知道,那些拥有 FSD 测试版的人——实际上到目前这个时候任何人都能获得——嗯,所以我们目前看到在 FSD 测试版下行驶的里程,比不使用它时行驶的里程安全得多。所以,嗯,那是,呃,你知道,那,那已经是一个非常好的里程碑。嗯,但你知道,你可以直接看出它正变得越来越好。比如,嗯,如果你看,如果你比较,呃,你知道,今天的 FS 测试版和 6个月前的版本,再和,你知道,1年前以及 18个月前的版本相比,它的改进确实非常显著。嗯,而且,嗯,我们已经有了拼图的最后一块,也就是让汽车的控制部分,呃,从大约
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将300,000行C++代码也变成神经网络,所以你知道,整个系统都会是神经网络,在你的网络中,嗯,丰斯输入、控制输出,而而那那算是让富洛普驾驶显著优于人类 W 的最后一块拼图。哇,太棒了,呃,谢谢你抽时间,伙计,呃,飞行平安,我很快会见到你,呃,女士们先生们,埃隆·马斯克。谢谢,伙计。[掌声] [音乐] 而我们反而向粉丝开放源代码,他们简直 G 疯了。[音乐] 贝斯·迈格占着[音乐]车道。哦天哪,我们都应该直接开个房间,来一场大型群交,因为他们全都没用。这就像是,就像他们只需要释放的性张力。[音乐] 索姆,我们需要弄点[音乐]周边。我要全……[音乐]
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[Applause] okay wait I'll just I'll just read off all of your companies Elon I know them but I'm just going to read them to make sure I don't miss one because there's so many now uh founder CEO chief engineer of SpaceX uh CEO product architect and chairman of Tesla uh owner chairman CTO of uh x uh x.
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com uh founder of boring company co-founder of neurolink and open Ai and president of the mus Foundation did I get everything let your Winner's ride and we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy [Music] with where are you me it is coming it's kind of absurd where are you at Star base um I'm in FL currently so this is this is a starlink and Flake connection are you kidding me that that's oh yeah that works pretty well huh I think there's only one wait I think it's one of of how stalling Works uh in an airplane at altitude there's only one of those in existence right it's on your plane that's it 101 there are a number of airliners that have stalling and there will be a lot more in the future Starling connection when you're assuming it's
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working properly is you would even be able to tell you you're on the ground or in the air um because unlike Jo satellit the latency is you know really be less than 20 millisecs so um it's a in fact for a lot I think for some people the Sonic connection on the plane will be better than their connection at their house that would be pretty great um H how is um the Starship doing it was incredible to see the first uh launch but I understand you're closing in on the second I know you've been working really hard on that and the team's working hard on it um when do you think you're going to get the next one up and um what are the chances it makes it to orbit uh well we have the second one stacked at Star base so it's ready to go um and uh we finished that up
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in the last week we believe we've we've completed the rain um I had an requested by the FAA so we should get our license hopefully soon um but really the only thing holding back second plan of Starship at this point is Right fire approval wow what's your expectation uh or your hope in terms of the probability that it gets to orbit it's just a question of timing yeah how long it does take to get the approval paperwork whatnot um so that's really up to the FAA at this point yeah but but what about making it to orbit do you think oh we are doing a new staging technique called hot staging uh where um you light the up the upstage engines or the ship engines while the um boost stage is still firing and um this is the kind of the most efficient way to do is
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stage separation of rocket going orbit um but we did not try that on the last mission and and we're trying on this Mission we think it will be overall better um but I think this I think probably have a I hope well over 50% chance of getting to Stage separation um and maybe at close to 50% chance of getting to Orit if the hot staging um the new separation method uh is it works so I'd say maybe it's like a you know above i' say probably above 30% chance of getting toor with the sign whereas previously I said below 50 uh is this in terms of complexity how complex is this of a problem compared to the other problems you've worked on in your career uh well so I mean making a rocket that is more the twice the size of the SAT 5 um you know it's a in fact with
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an extra of the rocket it'll have roughly three times the thrust of a Saturn 5 Moon rocket um whever it's signed to be fully rapidly reusable whereas the you know the SAT was completely Expendable and with baline we we still expand the upper stage uh but we we bring back the boo stage as people have probably seen the The Rocker liing videos and we are also able to recover the varant um with the with falc but these things do land toly out to sea so it takes a while to bring them back to board and get them ready for figh G the the thing that you know so so this's a scale of Starship but then also the fact that it is designed for full and R re usability so both the booster and the ship come back launch site they get caught by these giant meaz arms youve
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see in congress's Godzilla uh it's basically bad uh catches this giant rocket out of you know B air and puts it back on the launch stand and gets ready for launch so it will be capable of you know basically aircraft level flight rates um but but it's much bigger than say a 747 or 8380 um you want can we um talk about the events of was it last weekend the whole Ukraine Starling thing can you give us like a the Tik Tok of like what's going on and like how you're being forced to decide but like what is it like in that decision room if there was one or wherever you were where you're trying to figure out am I keeping this on do I turn it off what is going on people must have been bombarding you whatever you can share about what that was like how you made the
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decision um yeah I I so I was actually mistaken a little bit in understanding the situation um you know obviously we St sex have provided uh starlink connectivity for you know to Ukraine um really since the beginning of the war uh really within a I think a few days of the war starting um and as the Ukrainian uh Governor said the S was instrumental in the FS of Ukraine so you know they've said that really many times although the media forgets to mention that um so and in fact they've said it on Twitter you X only know on his Twitter it's going to take a while to get that right yeah take a little time [Laughter] um so you know you don't have to you don't have to take my words for it you just read what what they put um you know uh so uh so son has been incredibly
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helpful to the Ukraine war eff um we' have gone out of pocket very significantly uh to help them um and um at at the time this happened the uh region around Crimea um was actually turned off now the reason it was turned off was actually originally was because United States had sanctions against Russia um and we're not allowed to actually and that includes Crimea and the sanctions and we're not allowed to actually turn on uh connectivity to sanction the country without explicit government approval um we did not have from the US government so um so so basically the uh uh you know Ukraine didn't they didn't give us any any advanced warning or heads up or anything um we just got the the sort of uh urgent calls from the Ukrainian government saying that we
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needed to turn on primier it's like in the middle of the night basically and we're like what are you talking about you know you which's it four um you know and then you know we basically um figured out that this was kind of like a bhit type attack on um Sasol on the Russian fet Sasol so they're really asking us for to to really for actually take part in a major act War um and um you know well we so certainly have huge EMP support for the Ukrainian government um the Ukrainian government is not in charge us uh people or companies that's not how it works and and Elon if if I could just but I should say that you know although I'm not President Biden's biggest fan if if I had received a Presidential Directive to turn it on I would have done so because I do
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regard the president as the chief executive officer of the country whether I want that post to the president or not I S respect the office and so if if you know if we gotten if I gotten a request from the president type of thing from the American president to be clear um then I I I would have turned it on you know so but no such requests came through that that's a really that's a really interesting point and um you're I mean the what jamas is referring to is you're now being attacked I saw there was a you know there was Jake Tapper uh the other day on CNN interviewing our secretary state was just he was all lathered up basically attacking you for this uh David David I mean to his credit secetary Lincoln was actually quite supportive despite the Absurd
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uh you know accusations and leading questions of the Jake taper at CN yeah he didn't take the bait credit to sery Lincoln in this regard for not um you know taking the bait at all yeah well I to me this is an example of no good deed goes unpunished because if you had never given I hope I hope some good deeds back go unpunished I mean if you if you had never given Starling that you know but yeah I mean my point is just if if you had never given Starling to the Ukrainian government for free voluntarily you just volunteered it then no one be attacking you right now for not turning it on so they could do their attack on Crea yeah um also one other thing I'll note is that your reason for not turning it on which is you don't be part of what could be a major
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escalation was exactly was exactly the reason that Biden Administration did not give attam attam missiles to Ukraine at that point in the War now they may be changing their minds but they were very worried about an attack the administration was an attack on Crea triggering some huge escalation of this war so not only did you not receive a directive from President Biden your thinking was very much in line with theirs at the time and and you're being attacked for that now there there's something you mentioned which is that you did this at a lot of economic cost to SpaceX can you just can you just talk about that for a second because I'm not sure people understand who's paying for what right now and who hasn't been paid and you know Etc there is um well
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as you say like a lot of people are contributed to the effort uh staring is the fundamental communication backbone of the Ukrainian uh government and and essential services like First Responders and that kind of thing um and you know is is used we we hope peacefully relatively peacefully on the warfront it is the only thing that works on the warfront everything else is been jamed by the Russians so it the only thing that works not not one of the [Applause] things you know but but I think you have to sort of think of say the you know um you know taking the actual example of Paul har and say like well how did that work out for Japan it didn't work out well at all right um because it was a a tactical victory a strategic defeat it enraged the American public
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um who sort of naturally wanted Vengeance for for the Z you know the Zach and I think that that you know while I don't think it's on the same scale that there was certainly that potential of sort of a many P Hava with results in a mass escalation of uh hostilities um but not this would this would not this would not defeat Russia it would enrage Russia do you Don do you donate the network or do they pay you for it sorry yeah so um I'm actually not sure what the final accounting is at this point but uh I I I think at one point at one point you calculated our sort of cost of supporting things that roughly $100 million now the $100 million does not count um the mass of risk to the entire Starling constellation uh because uh Russia would like to have the entire
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thing deleted um so uh you know nobody's compensating us for that um and uh so if we were to get say uh our control center were uh take down and Cyber attack they you know they command satellites to the over um and destroy the entire system uh or use anti satellite weapons um so you know the these are this is a pretty significant risk um for which we have not received any compensation and obviously would be catastrophic to the entire stalling system which is you know approaching $10 billion Elon do you think the current government Administration saying hey 10 mil million and then actually I say one of the BR meing things was as you as you've seen there's there's a very large amount of money that's been appropriated for uh Ukraine you know I'm not sure
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what the the total is at this point but must be 100 close billion or somewhere between 80 and 100 billion um you know now all of the you know other sort of providers us providers of support to Ukraine are being paid so then why should SpaceX be excluded that doesn't make sense we we're doing one of the most valuable things and yet are getting the least money this iser um but you know despite that we're still happy to keep keep going and um Elon does the Biden Administration have it out for you and why H what have gave you that idea [Laughter] yeah but let me ask you own and control I don't if the whole Administration has it out me I think there probably aspects of the administration that are not uh or or you know as aspects of you know interests aligned
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with uh with with with resent Biden who probably do not um wish good things for me um I don't know you know really what their issue is but there does seem to be um a significant increase in the weaponization of government um and um I say really sort of misuse of prosecutorial discretion in a many many areas where and I think this is this is really a dangerous thing for um you know for I don't know for that to be potis and politics with with with government agencies it's it's just really and then I think from you know from from say uh you know Democratic party standpoint or or say B Biden Administration standpoint I think this is this the danger here is that if there's significant uh um must use prosecutorial discretion let's say one says okay everyone's
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equal under the law yes but who are you who are you choosing to pursue um and if if you if you're pursuing what what appeared to Independent voters to be uh trivial cases while ignoring serious crimes um it's hard to imagine that a lot of independent voters that's going to win over thoughtful independent voters did this did things change when you bought X yeah I think that they did change somewhat um you know I I'll go with the with with the sort of you know the xplatform is really to be uh a Level Playing Field a public square that is supportive of um you know most of the country let's say that the middle 80% or something like that um now um that's not been the case really for all social media that all social media have been really very very left leading
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far left leading and really Twitter was far left leading um you know the the suspensions of of um s Republican candidates or interests or voices was was uh really at least 10 times the rate of of um suppression of left left bring voices on you know on all Twitter um so so what what I'm trying to do is move it to the middle which from standpoint of say the left appears it is moving to the right Everything's Relative if you're standing on the left but it's not it's simply moving to the middle that's all um in an attempt to actually represent the whole country um and and not just um here half the country or even maybe less than half the country so that's it really so I think there's like there's really to be alarmed about here it's you know it's just that
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it's intended to be a Town Square inclusive of the whole country and else you know and and the world that's all it it's been um I guess you took over um X Twitter on Halloween weekend if I remember correctly uh when you got to the building you got the keys um and David and I were lucky to be there with you when you got the keys and we got to um check things out um this is 10 months into a turnaround uh and it wasn't a high functioning organization I think when you took it over where is the company at now and are you pleased with I guess the progress because it looks like new features are getting launched the product velocity is great uh obviously advertising's been challenging but it feels like there's some green shoots so so how do you feel about the
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purchase now yeah well I should say we recently seen a significant increase in advertising which is great um so that's a you know if that Trend continues um I think the company will be in in very good Financial shape on the advertising front um so that in terms of positive developments that that seems to be one of them um and um from a feature standpoint I think those who are look using the system I think we' I think we might have delivered more new features you know in the last I know a year than in the last you know all tter did in 5 years you know there there really feature the feature development pace is very rapid um and this is being done with really about 15% of the original company um maybe a little more 15 20% um so it's it's really you know
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efficient you know at the end of the day you have to say you know how complicated is a system uh like the X Twitter platform um you know how different is it from a group chat frankly it's like a group chat at scale um so he I don't think you need an army to maintain a group chat yeah yeah I mean it's it's not the self-driving platform and it had maybe 10 times as many people working on it as the self-driving platform at Tesla which seems crazy the entire self-driving AI software team is 200 people and the what they're doing is much more complex than Twitter or you know much a lot more so you now there's other things that obviously need to be done like advertising sales um OB network operations and um how can you talk to it's really not it's not a it's
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not a huge I don't like I said don't even know me for for for what we're here and I think you know the people that that are um still the company are obviously being very productive in uh creating and deling new features um and um you know we keep seeing sort of RedBoard usage and the the know the most prous number is really the is user seconds as reported by the mobile device especially iOS the the iOS uh what iOS reports as the screen time is the is the least gameful metric um and and those numbers are exem are very good um so you know I think I'm course justly optimistic about where things are headed and I I feel like the company's turned just you know just recently turned turn a corner um tell us about you know said um at least moderate prosperity
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and and hopefully significant tell us about um the success of sharing Revenue why did you do it and then just the the vision you have for just the Creator economy and what you want that to evolve into and build into yeah I mean it sounds to reason that if if you're a Creator and you need to um need to make a Livy for what you're doing um so there's got to be um you know Fair compensation competitive compensation for a Creator whether they're doing you know WR their writing or pictures video whatever the case may be um and uh so we're and we're so we're not really in you know inventing anything new here we're just you know as YouTube does with creators they will do rev show um with advertising and so we're doing rev show with advertising um we're also
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to have enabled direct subscription to accounts where whatever somebody you know you could be doing audio video long form text anything and you can subscribe to someone and um that's you know OB that's way for a subscriber to make a living as as well you know for a Creator to make a living so the intent is for the ACT platform to be the best home for creators uh where if you've got interesting content then you you want to put it on a platform and um you know there's a lot of questions about like sort of the algorithm and whatnot I I should mention like the the algorithm is uh I think almost all of it is open sourced and and we will uh I think quite soon have the entire open source uh the only reason I it really hasn't been done entirely open source yet
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is because we're somewhat embarrassed with the code and need to just clean it up before uh putting something extremely embarrassing out there but the point is that like we want transparency boths trust and if you've got um uh if you if you can recreate the results um on the xform of how viral a post is going to be independently using the uh you know the the public algorithm you know the H algorithm um that that's really where we want to get to um so you you kind of you kind of know what to expect um and and why something happened um now now I should say the we are we are trying to optimize for uh user time um on the platform what this naturally means is that um posting content that someone looks at longer is going to get higher priority than content that
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is short uh just because the system is trying to Max it's it's aspiring to maximize uh you unreg user remittance is what I call it so like basically how do we um if we're succeeding you want to spend more time on the platform and you want to and after having spent that time you don't want to regret it um I mean speaking of Tik Tok um you know that's I've had a lot of people tell me they spend a lot of time on Tik Tok and they regret it um we don't want to be we want it to be that you spend a lot of time on the xplatform and you learned a lot uh you you're entertained and you don't regret it so when you're optimizing for you know user minutes and like I said aspirationally under regretted use minutes uh uh if you the more content that you post on the system
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the more reach that uh thing will get because the system is saying oh those user is spending more time in the platform because they're they're you know seeing say your podcast or uh reading um a long form article or watching some video um that's going to get a lot more time than say if you if you link to a video elsewhere or you link to an article elsewhere that that that's just that that that that means you'll you will be on that post for a very short period of time and so the the system will be like okay that did not increase uh user time so it will it won't be excluded it it will get less attention that than actually posting content natively on the system do you want to talk um about uh the ADL and you uh sort of where what the status of that is whether
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you're pursuing a lawsuit or not or where that stands um I think we'll have to see about that I mean um yeah I mean the fact of matter is that ad did initiate a boycott they don't call it a boycott they call it a pause but you know po that is never ending isot so and and and we just we saw a massive drop in uh us advertising we saw basically no change in advertising in Asia but domestically with ADL is strong we saw uh 60% drop in advertising so you know that's uh pretty intense um and um and this is despite you know showing repeated uh analyses of the system including third party analysis of the system which actually showed that uh the number of uh views of hateful content uh declined so you know the third parties who have all the data analyz and said
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actually there's less safe speech um the issue I think with the ADL is not a question of hate speech it's not a question of any semitism obviously uh it's that the ad um and a lot of other organizations have become activist organizations um which are acting far beyond their uh stated mandate or their original mandate and and I think far beyond what donors to those organizations think they are doing um you know one of the things that the a was extremely opposed to and in fact was instrumental in in happening was there the ad was instrumental in getting um Donald Trump the platformed um and then when we we you know we restored the account um they they made it super clear that they regarded simply restoring his account on you know Twitter now uh that that
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that constituted hateful speech like he hasn't even said anything you know um he has to at least say something or post something for there to be incremental painful painful content this is absurd um and what's this got to do with anti-Semitism like you know Donald Trump's son-in-law is Jewish his Jewish gr I'm pretty sure he's not anti-semitic okay um you know he's at the wedding so um this this so so the problem is that a lot of these um organizations like said they've really been captured by the W agenda and they're they're pushing um you know serious of beliefs and values that I think are often contrary to their what what they're done as belief and that's uh that's what we have in the situation well yeah I I'll note that the the two positions that
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you've taken that have brought the most heat on you number one defending Free Speech number two advocating peace and how dare you how dare you how dare you and there's there's an article like the opposite world or something yeah we're living in upside down World there there's an article in today's New Yorker calling you a super villain because you're advocating peace and protecting the first amendment I mean it's like completely upside down do you want people to eat their vegetables you at this point you literally cannot tell actual press from parody no like if that was a bon be or onion no literally you're doing a you're doing and and change the banner to you know Babylon b or whatever onion or something like that par some parody thing and be like oh
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that's a good joke you know um yeah super bones normally advocate for peace that's you know of course um we want to get rid of all the nuclear weapons hey um hold that's uh what the funniest the funniest skit that didn't make it on SNL that we were worksh Shing was probably woke James Bond and we wanted to do like this woke James Bond and Eli will tell you some of the jokes it was pretty hilarious but then we were just talking about a story that broke in the guardian about the new James Bond novel and short story is to woke and it's literally the parody we did two years ago uh Elon speaking of Peace we had we had a grais reality also like the you know the uh you know conspiracy theories that that that haven't come true list is you know quite short um
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sees that turn out quite short um and we really need more conspiracies generated because we're running out of to find the [Laughter] truth okay check off is accurate um so uh I don't know who's the you know responsible these conspiracy theories but but you know we just need some more material paging Alex Jones Elon we had Graham Alison here today I know you talked about his book we had Ray Doo here we had Ro kna um and we talked a lot about China the US relationship with China you are you have several businesses that have deep supplier and customer relation uh ships in China given what's going on and clearly the tenor has changed the the mood has changed with respect to US policy towards China what it's like in DC what it's like in Silicon Valley and
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how everyone talks about the relationship with China today it's pretty crazy how quick things have changed um as a business leader with all these business relationships with China how do you make decisions and and how things are changing and how do you think about where this is headed sure well I mean let's just clarify here um you know SpaceX has no uh SpaceX of Starling have no in China whatsoever they're not they're not allowed you know SpaceX does launch uh China satellites and starlink is abandon in China so to be clear SpaceX starlink zero business in China um uh in the case of of Tesla uh one of our of our four vehicle factories uh one is in uh China so um you know it's a it's a significant car market uh but it is uh you know so what I'm trying
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to say is like the by far the bulk of of my business interests if if I I would peing MTI which I Aspire not to be um are Outsider China let's just be clear about that um then with respect to now that said I think I understand China well I've been there many times I've met with uh the senior leadership um at many levels of China for for many years and so I I think I've got a pretty good understanding um at least as an outsider of ch so and and Tesla has been very successful domestically in China so um you know the fundamental thing here is is really Taiwan um the China has well really since uh for like half a century or so uh maybe longer at this point longer at this point their policy has been to to um s reunite Taiwan with China uh from this standpoint
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you know it may be just analogous to like Hawaii or or something like that like an integral part of China that is arbitrarily not part of China um mostly because of the US stop has us Pacific Fleet has stopped uh any any sort of um reunification effort force um so now really things getting to the point um increasingly year-over year uh where China's military strength is increasing and ours is more or less uh static and strategically you know you can imagine trying to defend Taiwan is not not easy because it's it's very close to the coast of China um so there will come a point if you know Pro probably not not too distant future where China's military strength in that region far ex exceeds US military strength in that region and if one is to take uh China's
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policy literally and probably one should um then there will be some forceful uh for forceful beuse for you know uh to incorporate Taiwan into China this is what they've said um that if if there is not a diplomatic solution there will be a solution by force let me um if I can and so really what's going on here you've seen you know this in in many areas and I think this Tempo is going to increase is that you know both China and the US are preparing for a potential Showdown uh you know in the South China CA so um that's why you're seeing increasing restrictions on export of us technology to China uh but such as the the Nvidia you know the Nvidia h100s being and you not allow to ship to China um and I think there'll be more and more you you also not not allow
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to ship Advanced ship making equipment to China um so and I suspect you know you know China is going to respond with some reciprocal sanctions um and you'll I think you'll see this kind of a TI T reciprocal sanctions increasing in the next next few years so I think quite a very uh hot temperature um and then we'll see this is there going to be a a diplomatic solution to uh re reunification or a non- diplomatic solution you uh but has made it clear that there will one way or another be a solution from their standpoint Yeah you mentioned uh Nvidia so let me just talk about Ai and bring it back to that for a second can you tell us um your regrets but also the positives of the experience you had with open Ai and then what your goals are with X well the AI
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discussion is is certainly a long one or could be a long one um you know digital super intelligence that might be the most significant technology that Humanity ever creates um and and it has the potential to be more dangerous than and um nuclear weapons so um you know in the case of creating opening eye it was to have there not be a unipolar world where um Google with its subsidary deat mine uh you know would control an overwhelming amount of AI talent and compute and and resources um which then is somewhat dependent on basically how how Larry paage U and serge BR um and Eric believe things should go because they they between three of them or two out of three have control over alphabet because they've got super voting rights and um you know I was quite
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based on some conversations I had with lar paig uh where um you know you call me a species for being pro humanity and um so I'm like what side of you on there you know uh um you know I think and uh so so I felt like uncomfortable um having the entire future of digital super intelligence be in the hands of someone who equ a species for being pro Humanity um you know how can it not be uh so that's opening eye was originally created as an open source nonprofit and now is a close to be it should be renamed closed for Max no profit AI um it is it is closed um and they are aiming to I think make try to make a100 billion I think according to S get $100 billion from somewhere for some vast amount of compute uh to create digital god um apparently all the waste
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are stored in a common separated value file by the way so our dig God will be a CSV file how do we import it file import um see what happens um so so anyway so so now opening uh is also very closely line with Microsoft you know Microsoft is really you um the open servers are running on in Azure and Microsoft data centers you know so really what you have is I think at the end of day Microsoft having more control than open AI they have access to all the source code they have access to all the weights of the um you know gb4 and future versions so they have all rights to this to to thing it's not um at any point really they could cut off open AI I don't think open AI quite realizes that the dependence on on Microsoft and even if Microsoft does break some
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contract they'll just be tied up in litigation for you know for years um so really you've got a contest between kind of like Google and Microsoft Google as mentioned I'm concerned about you know uh sorry not not caring enough about AI safety and um good reason and then Microsoft just is is a I think you know a profit seeking organization um and I you know I think such is great but um I I can't say like you know that it would difficult to to say that that m has a has an amazing track record and moral decision- making so um diplomatic anyway so so so was like okay look let's just so I think let's try to create a third company that is competitive I I I do think Tesla is underated from an AI standpoint in terms of real world AI Tesla has the best real world
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AI so uh you know hopefully between uh xai and Tesla there's kind of a third Contender or would you look you've done you open source your patents at Tesla you are very Pro open source your source code at X would you ever considering releasing dojo and FSD more as a platform substrate for everybody else or that's sort of off the table right now well I don't know if that's uh you know in the case of say Dojo or our inference Hardware that's in the car our inference inference computer which is actually a lot lot more comp than Dojo by the way um you know we've got I know somewhere in the order of 4 million cars that have um highp speeded Ai and Par computers in them um like open sourcing chip designs doesn't mean you you suddenly get that thing yeah you
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know so um you can open open source the software but I think chip designs it's only ones that could actually use those chips or really kind of yeah would be some someone that's willing to spend many billions of dollars on um on a computer development so anyway I think I think in the case of uh you know don't saying Optimus is really interesting um any I think just in general Tesla is uh one of the most leading AI companies um and in some respects the leading AI company when it comes to real real world AI understanding the real world and and actually reacting to that with self-driving um and so and I think that will become part of the the solution for AGI or general super intelligence so um in the case of Tesla I think we've got a sort of a good governance
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structure in that there's no super voting rights or anything like that so if I'm you know go crazy the CH of Tesla can vote me out um you know I have enough vote to be you know I think moderately influential but not enough to stay in even if I'm doing crazy stuff so I think that's actually good um great um I was told we have to wrap him at oh okay uh just on FSD before we wrap I'll let you go um we were talking earlier this year and you said uh hey maybe chat GPT 4.
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0 like moment for self-driving was coming and uh I've I've been playing with the beta and um yeah how how close does it feel to you because it it some of the rides it's been doing for me are pretty darn impressive the latest beta is pretty incredible yeah it's pretty pretty neat I you know I used to love it on the highways and on the streets I'd be like okay but now I'm using it increasingly on the streets so where do you how do you feel about it right now and I I guess you made a lot of predictions on it over the years um but it it does feel like it's getting pretty close yeah I think it's I think it's very close to uh you know being in a situation where even if there's no human oversight or intervention that the probability of uh a safe journey is is
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higher with FSD and no supervision like even if you're seep of the car than if the person is driving um we're very close to that you know those that have the FSD beta which really anyone could get at this point um so the the the miles we see driven under the FSD beta currently are much safer than the miles that are driven without it so um that's uh you know that's that's already very good milestone um but you know you can just see that it's getting better and better like um if you see if you compare the uh you know FS beta today versus 6 months ago versus you know a year ago versus 18 months ago it's really the Improvement is dramatic um and um we've got the final piece of the puzzle which is to have the control part of the car uh transition from about
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300,000 lines of C++ code to also neural network so the you know the whole system will be neural net in your network um phons into controls out and and that that that's kind of the final piece of the puzzle for fullop driving being significantly better than human W awesome uh thanks for taking the time buddy uh fly safe and I'll see you shortly uh ladies and gentlemen Elon mus thanks bud [Applause] [Music] and instead we open sources to the fans and they've just G [Music] crazy Bes myg taking [Music] driveway oh man we should all just get a room just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all useless it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release [Music] Som we need to get [Music] merch I'm going all [Music]