机器翻译,已尽力保留原意与数字
内容摘要
All-In 主持人查马斯、杰森·卡拉卡尼斯、戴维·萨克斯和戴维·弗里德伯格就 Twitter 上的机器人、SpaceX、Tesla 以及迁往得克萨斯州等话题采访马斯克。
All-In hosts Chamath, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks and David Friedberg interview Musk about Twitter's bots, SpaceX, Tesla and moving to Texas.
中文实录Transcript
108 个段落
第 1 段
所以,呃,从一个未公开地点现场直播,开着性感滤镜,非常性感的滤镜,对,今天头发状态非常棒,对,这头发状态确实不错,头发状态很棒,我的朋友,也是你们最喜欢的首席执行官和 Twitter 发帖人,埃隆·马斯克先生,你怎么样,伙计?[掌声] [音乐] 感谢你,呃,来参加活动,还有,嗯,或者通过 Zoom 连线进来,嗯,你的世界里有什么新鲜事?嗯,好,让我想想,嗯,我想现在,呃,我算是在争论 Twitter 上机器人的数量。[音乐] [掌声] Twitter 上,嗯,而且,嗯,目前我想……别人告诉我的是,呃,根本没办法知道机器人的数量,基本上像人类灵魂一样不可知,所以你有个想法,要用巫术和炼金术才能确定这个机器人的比例,我就说,为什么
第 2 段
难道我没试着给人打电话吗?但我没有得到回应,你知道,比如你们试过给人打电话或什么的吗,你知道,比如也许试着回答,它不是关于……不,不,不,我不知道,但我觉得那会是应该做的事情之一,就是说,比如你们试过给他们打电话吗,而不是试图在这里解读茶叶,那根本不可能,你知道,呃,显然,你可以有一个看起来和真人账户完全一样的账户,或者是由一个人操作1,000个账户之类的,嗯,但那个人只能买1台烤面包机,他们不会买1,000台烤面包机,所以你关心的是系统上独一无二的真人数量,这极其根本,而且任何使用 Twitter 的人都非常清楚,呃,那个
第 3 段
他们的评论……评论串里充满垃圾信息、骗局,还有,还有,嗯,就是很多,你知道,虚假账户,所以,嗯,Twitter 声称,呃,基本上……换句话说,你每天在 Twitter 上看到发表评论的独一无二的真人数量超过95%,这似乎,呃,远远超出了合理范围,这就是他们的说法,有人有这种体验吗?[音乐] [笑声] 我想卖给你,你知道,你知道,而且你还可以买下布鲁克林大桥。嗯,你认为是多少?什么,对,是多少……是多少?我是说,不是5%,那是多少?嗯,我认为这个数字很可能至少是那个数字的4倍或5倍。我会说,呃,如果你做某种……最低的
第 4 段
估计,可能会是20,嗯,而且,呃,而且这……这是一些相当聪明的外部公司对 Twitter 做了分析,并且,呃,研究了每日、每日用户,他们的结论也大约是……大约20,但那是下限,不是上限。如果你看看,比如,嗯,Twitter 上获赞最多的推文,嗯,所以我,我拥有,呃,任何在世人类中获赞最多推文的荣誉,嗯,这是……感谢大家为我的推文点赞,也包括你们外面的某些机器人,但那条推文的点赞数不到500万,大约是4。
第 5 段
7之类的,而那,那,那就是我发推文说,嗯,下次要买下可口可乐,把可卡因重新放回去。那肯定……那显然是公众真正想要的东西,而且,你知道,呃,可口可乐公司确实应该考虑回归本源。嗯,可口可乐。嗯,我是说,这……我想这就是为什么我们的祖父母能在雪地里走20英里,因为他们喝的是含可卡因的可口可乐。这才是真正的原因。所以,嗯,不管怎样,那是……那确实就是任何……任何在世人类最受欢迎的推文,嗯,但是 Twitter 说每日可变现……某种可变现的日活跃用户是2.17亿,嗯,所以为什么基本上有史以来最受欢迎的推文只有,你知道,2……2
第 6 段
点5%,只占整个用户群的百分比?这……这似乎是个非常、非常低的数字。嗯,而且,嗯,最受欢迎的推文通常集中在大约400万,呃,点赞的水平,所以这有点像……某个打电话的人之类的,基本上是,呃,日活跃用户的2%,或者那个,或者不到2%,而且,而且严格来说,Twitter 称之为可变现日活跃用户,所以这看起来……这怎么可能?嗯,肯定会有某种东西是,也许,你知道,10%的人会点赞的,而不只是2%。嗯,其实,你知道,如果你想想,埃隆,嗯,YouTube 上也有一个对应关系,YouTube 的总用户群是多少?那里最受欢迎的视频获得了多少?是的,而且我想有10亿或20亿,也许有……
第 7 段
10亿人在使用 YouTube,而那些最受欢迎的视频有数百亿次观看,这可能很有启发性。没错,那个比例合理得多。嗯,所以这里有些东西对不上。嗯,而我的担忧并不是……并不是说,它是,比如,你知道,是5%还是7%或8%,而是它是否可能有80%或90%是机器人。对。嗯,你知道,呃,它是不是……我是说,我,我当然知道 Twitter 上有些真人,但是,呃,但如果……是不是相差一个数量级?是不是50而不是5?而那显然是一个极其重大的数字。嗯,特别是因为 Twitter,呃,主要依赖,呃,品牌广告,而不是具体的点击广告,也就是你会在其中完成购买;如果你,如果你完成了购买,它……它
第 8 段
其实没那么重要,但对于品牌广告,也就是纯粹的认知度广告,看到它的是不是真人就很重要。对,而且,所以我想先退一步,人们很好奇你为什么想买 Twitter,为什么这对你这么重要,然后我想,此刻你认为交易完成的可能性有多大?所以这是一个分成2部分的问题。为什么它对我这么重要?我是说,其中一些我以前已经阐述过,但我认为需要一个,一个公共市民广场、数字市民广场,呃,人们可以在那里辩论,呃,各种问题,嗯,包括最具实质性的问题,而为了让这种情况成立,你必须拥有一个尽可能广泛包容的东西,让尽可能多的……人
第 9 段
出现在平台上,呃,让它,呃,从政治角度感觉平衡,呃,不偏向任何一方,嗯,而且系统是透明的。这就是为什么我认为把算法放到 GitHub 上很重要,并真正允许公众查看、批评和改进它;而且如果存在任何人工改动,呃,也就是所谓的影子封禁,或者人为提高或降低某条推文的显著程度,都应该注明,呃,这样你就知道发生了什么,而不是仅仅,呃,你知道,你只是……以目前的情况,我们根本不知道到底发生了什么。为什么某条推文表现好?为什么那个甜的不是不……是算法造成的吗?有人进行了人工干预吗?呃,为什么有些账户被封禁
第 10 段
呃,而且显然没有申诉途径。嗯,而且,嗯,你知道,现实是,呃,Twitter 在这一点上,你知道,存在,呃,非常偏左的倾向。嗯,而我会把自己归类为温和派,而且,你知道,既不是共和党人,也不是民主党人。嗯,事实上,呃,从历史上看,我投票……绝大多数票都投给了民主党,呃,绝大多数,比如我不确定,我可能从没投过共和党,只是说清楚。现在,现在这次选举我会……好吧,戴维,你还好吗?你要怎么死了?他继续,继续,他没事,他没事,我们要把他救活,我们要把戴维·萨克斯救活。我是说,让我问你一个人……我想表达的重点是,这并不是某种试图,呃,你知道,这不是什么右翼接管,呃,不像,比如有些人
第 11 段
在生活中可能担心的那样,呃,而是一场温和派接管。嗯,并且试图,呃,确保拥有各种,呃,你知道,政治,呃,信念的人都觉得自己在一个数字市民广场上受到欢迎,而且他们可以表达,呃,自己的,自己的信念,呃,而不用担心被封禁或影子封禁。嗯,而且,而且,而且我们显然需要清除机器人,呃,以及骗局、试验,还有那些运营,呃,庞大机器人军团、试图,呃,不当影响公众舆论的人。所以这就是我认为的,我们拥有那个非常重要,就像,历史上一些最聪明的人都思考过这件事,并说,比如,言论自由对于健康的民主制度很重要,它确实重要,而言论自由只在,比如什么时候
第 12 段
声望最重要,是当某个人,当你不喜欢的人说了你不喜欢的话,呃,那才是它真正重要的时候。嗯,所以,嗯,你知道,显然,而且而且而且,当你不喜欢的人说了你不喜欢的话时,确实很烦人,那那那很糟糕,但这实际上是一个好迹象,表明,呃,你拥有言论自由。嗯,所以我是说,我一直被媒体痛批,没关系,我不在乎,呃,去吧,加倍地批,我根本不在乎。嗯,但这表明了一个事实,即使,嗯,我,你知道,我有很多资源,我实际上也没有能力阻止媒体痛批我,而这其实是一件好事。是的,我我得问一下,嗯,关于本届政府,我知道你有多努力
第 13 段
经营,呃,这家汽车公司,然后拜登,你知道,你一直是终身民主党人,你给奥巴马和可能所有人都捐过款,可能从未投票给共和党,然而,对乔·罗根来说也是如此,乔·罗根是,你知道,伯尼·桑德斯的支持者,而民主党一直公开敌视乔·罗根,拜登甚至说不出 Tesla 这个词,也不在他们举办电动汽车峰会时邀请你去白宫。我只是从非常个人的角度好奇,经历这种事是什么感受,你支持的政党甚至不肯说出你公司的名字,也不邀请你去那里,他们本应赞扬你正在做的工作。是的,我是说,这肯定让人感觉这不对,像是这[音乐]这里的问题是,存在
第 14 段
只是一个,呃,这个民主党过度、过度地受到工会和诉讼律师,尤其是集体诉讼,呃,律师的控制。嗯,而且总体而言,如果你,如果你看到民主党一方有什么不符合、不符合人民利益的事情,原因会是工会,呃,那不过是另一种形式的垄断,以及,呃,诉讼律师。呃,民主党一方的行动会从那里产生,它们不符合人民的利益。然后,嗯,公平地说,在共和党一方,呃,如果你问,像是哪里正在发生某种不、不理想的事情,那是因为企业之恶,嗯,以及宗教狂热。嗯,但总的来说,共和党一方的坏事会从那里产生
第 15 段
共和党一方,嗯,那些并不代表人民。所以,嗯,就拜登而言,他只是太、太受工会控制了,嗯,而奥巴马并非如此。嗯,所以就奥巴马而言,你可以,你知道,他算是相当通情达理,嗯,而且我认为他采取的观点更多是,你知道,显然要考虑工会的关切,但,呃,还有更重大的问题事关全局,而而不幸的是,拜登没有这样做。你会有一个 Tesla 问题,我今天读到,太不可思议了,有一篇彭博社文章是这样说的,那么背景是这样,它说自从你上市以来,Tesla 上涨了 22 000,呃,连续 11 个季度实现盈利,所以各方面都运转良好,但一位公众分析师,我们不得不看
第 16 段
它(笑声),但分析师,呃,在给出预测时,好吧,这是美国任何公司中跨度最大的区间之一。尽管取得了所有这些成功,对 Tesla 的目标价有些定在 200,有些定在 1600,到处都是。你几个月前发推文说,Tesla 不是一家公司,它就像一家公司里面有 6 家公司。就像你已经,是的,也许更多。你能不能给大家解释一下这家超级公司里的所有这些公司,让大家了解为了走到这里都必须做些什么?好吧,我是说,这个问题需要思考,而且我可能会漏掉相当多的东西,但如果你观察并问,一家典型的,呃,汽车公司做什么,呃,它们所做的是,它们,它们,嗯,组装车辆,嗯,然后它们
第 17 段
把车送到经销商那里,并管理供应链,呃,它们,它们可能制造发动机,呃,或者通常我们会制造发动机,但大多数零部件由供应商制造,许多实际的技术开发由供应商完成,大多数、大多数车辆软件也由供应商完成。所以,汽车公司真正完成的实际工作量,像你想到的那种 GMO Ford,其实并没有那么多。嗯,但比如说,所以它们不做,它们不做,呃,销售,它们不做售后服务。嗯,它们,呃,所以所以以 Tesla 为例,我们,我们做,我们自己做销售和售后服务,我们没有经销商。嗯,然后,呃,Tesla 还拥有遥遥领先的最大超级充电网络,算是加油站的电动版。所以我们建设了
第 18 段
一个完整的全球超级充电网络,它仍然是最先进的,而且到目前为止,这是长途旅行时为汽车充电的最佳,呃,方式;或者如果你住在城市里,嗯,而且,呃,没有能力给汽车充电,只有路边停车位或公寓。所以整个超级充电网络,我们开发了超级充电网络,我们部署了它,我想我们有,我不知道,全球 15 000 个超级充电设施。嗯,现在你可以借助,呃,Tesla 超级充电网络前往美国任何地方。嗯,然后,呃,就垂直整合而言,呃,我们,呃,我们制造电池包,呃,电力电子系统、驱动单元。嗯,我们,呃,我们实际上制造,我们在自己实际制造的零部件方面整合程度更高,我们在内部制造汽车中如此多的部分。呃,我们进行了垂直整合
第 19 段
,嗯,不一定是因为我们认为成为产品整合商有什么宗教上的理由,而是因为,呃,我们需要推进的速度就是比供应链能达到的速度快得多,而在你继承传统供应链的程度上,也继承了传统约束,包括它们的速度,呃,成本和,呃,技术。然后 Tesla 既是一家软件公司,也是一家硬件公司。因此,在 Tesla 中运行的软件负责操作汽车、操作屏幕,呃,完成充电,呃,所有这些东西都由 Tesla 开发。然后,嗯,所以我们在车里算是有一个汽车、一个 Tesla OS,当你,然后非常重要的是,呃,Tesla 从零开始建立了一支,呃,一个自动驾驶 AI 团队,呃,这是地球上最优秀的现实世界 AI 团队,如果有任何人
第 20 段
有一支更好的团队,我想看看它在汽车中展示出来。嗯,目前全自动驾驶测试版经常可以在 0 次干预的情况下,带你从圣何塞跨越湾区到马林,所以会经过复杂的交通路况,它确实相当先进。嗯,我邀请任何人加入测试版,或者或者看看那些参与测试版的人发布的视频。我们的测试版大约有 100 000 人,所以规模并不小,我们还会把它扩大到,我知道,可能 100万人,或者 100万,我不知道,大约是这个量级,在今年年底前。所以,嗯,它,嗯,我们还,我们还建立了一支芯片团队,因为没有,没有我们可以用来运行那该死的,呃,AI 的硬件。呃,我们不能直接,呃,把后备箱塞满一大堆 GPU。嗯,而且而且,你知道
第 21 段
,它们本来会,需要整整一个后备箱的 GPU,那会非常昂贵,并消耗巨量的电力和冷却能力,呃,才能做到 Tesla 设计的,呃,全自动驾驶计算机能做到的事。所以,我们从零开始组建了一支芯片团队,设计了它,它当时是世界上最好的,几年后仍然是世界上最好的。嗯,然后我们还开发,我们当时正在设计一台 Dojo 超级计算机,以便能够处理来自数十亿英里数据的所有视频,因为就有点像,与谷歌竞争至关重要的原因是他们拥有如此多的数据,而且一直有这么多人进行搜索,是人类在训练它。但 Tesla 也是如此,你确实需要数十亿
第 22 段
英里,最终是数百亿英里的训练数据,再结合某种庞大的训练计算机,然后,呃,车内经过优化的,呃,推理硬件,并保持 AI 和训练以及全面的专用软件,才能实现全自动驾驶解决方案。我,呃,当他给 Tesla 超级工厂揭幕时,记得这是 67 年前,我就快速给观众讲个故事。埃隆,他放出一张幻灯片,然后他说,各位,我们实际上不是在建工厂,我们是在建造制造机器的机器。然后他放出工厂的布局,看起来就像一块芯片,基本上就像如果你是,或者,你知道,你像是一个版图工程师,你实际会如何布置一块微芯片。这是我见过最疯狂的东西。我当时
第 23 段
就像,那是我第一次明白了。是的,你知道,你走进帐篷,看到正在发生的事情,而且你现在还有一家保险公司,你在为 Tesla 车主提供保险,还有一个 Uber 竞争者,对吧,最终是一个无人驾驶出租车版的 Uber 竞争者。好吧,嗯,是的,我是说,保险现在相当重要。你还好吗?我没事。好,好,因为汽车保险这件事比看上去更重要。很多人在汽车保险上支付的金额,嗯,你知道,是汽车租赁付款的 30 40。那么,汽车保险业效率低得难以置信,因为它们只是,呃,首先,你有很多,嗯,某种中间实体,从保险代理人一直到最终某种再保险公司,中间大概有 6 家
第 24 段
公司,每家都抽成。嗯,然后,呃,这一切都非常依赖统计,所以这个,嗯,即使你是非常优秀的驾驶员,比如你可能,你知道,20 岁,而且驾驶技术很好,但它们,它们,这一切都依赖统计,所以你要么无法获得保险,要么保费极其昂贵。嗯,所以 Tesla 可以根据你实际如何驾驶汽车提供实时保险。嗯,如果你以更安全的方式驾驶汽车,你实际上会获得更低的保费。所以我们的保险是,是基于你实际如何驾驶,而不是,你知道,历史上那些,你知道,符合你某种人口统计特征的人是怎么驾驶的。而且然后你可以围绕你的,呃,保险费率形成闭环,只需驾驶得更好、查看你的分数,并且并且
第 25 段
实时降低你的保费,而且人们确实这样做,它实际上促进了更安全的驾驶。我实际上有过这种经历,因为在我家里有 2 个人驾驶我的车,其中 1 个人的分数是 93,另一个人不是,他们的分数大概是 60。你可能见过另一个人,但在我们的保险账单到来之前,我一直在努力和她改善急转弯和停车的问题,呃,我们希望账单会在某个时候降下来。嗯,你没有,哦,有一个问题是,这笔 Twitter 交易会成交吗,你认为机会如何?嗯,我是说,这实际上取决于这里的很多因素。嗯,我仍然在等待,呃,对 Twitter 上某种虚假或垃圾账号数量的某种合理解释,而 Twitter 正拒绝
第 26 段
告诉我们。所以,你知道,这看起来就是件奇怪的事。嗯,等等,抱歉,他们是拒绝告诉你,还是你认为他们其实并不知道?我是说,他们很有可能根本不知道。他们声称自己知道。是的,而且他们声称自己有这种只有他们才能理解的复杂方法。嗯(笑声)但那个同时让 2 枚火箭着陆的人,你搅动这口大锅,然后把指节吊臂扔进去,嗯,答案就在梦里来找你了,我不知道。嗯,但但应该有某种,呃,你知道,客观的方式来断定这,呃,件事,因为这是一个,这是一个重大的公开陈述门槛问题。是的,它,你知道,它,它是一个,你知道,重大不利的,呃,错误陈述。呃,你知道,如果,如果他们事实上,呃,一直在
第 27 段
,嗯,强烈声称虚假或垃圾账号不到 5%,但事实上是这个数字的 4 或 5 倍,或者可能是这个数字的 10 倍,这就是大事。嗯,这不是,这就像如果你说,好吧,嗯,我要,我同意买你的房子,你说房子里白蚁不到 5%,那是可接受的数字,但如果结果是 90% 的白蚁,那就,呃,不能接受。你知道,那不是同一栋房子。嗯,你房子的大部分会消失,因为它大部分是在 2 个月内制成的。嗯,所以它,你知道,那显然就是不合适的。所以在,在提出收购 Twitter 的要约时,我显然依赖于他们公开申报文件的真实性和准确性,而如果那些,那些文件并不准确,那就根本
第 28 段
不是,那就是,它,它不是,你不能为比他们所声称的糟糕得多的东西支付相同的价格。而且,你知道,他们说,埃隆,人生就是谈判,所以换一个价格,它可能会是一笔完全可行的交易,对吗?我是说,那,我是说,这并非不可能。嗯,好吧,但我真的会,你知道,这是,你知道,我问的问题越多,我,我的担忧就越多,呃,增长。嗯,所以,你知道,归根结底,收购它的前提是它必须能够修复。嗯,而且而且可修复,你知道,要在合理的时间范围内,而且收入不能在此过程中崩溃,以及诸如此类的事情。嗯,所以,你知道,我确实需要看看这些东西是怎么计算出来的,而且它,它不能是什么深奥谜团,复杂得像人类的
第 29 段
灵魂之类的东西。嗯,它必须是,你知道,我认为我们可以把科学方法应用于此,并尝试弄清楚到底发生了什么。而且,嗯,Twitter 的收入,我想主要有 70 或者大约这个量级依赖品牌广告,而不是具体购买广告。这是一件大事,因为品牌广告并不是,并不存在由此产生的一笔购买,所以基本上是,你知道,有多少心智份额,或者基本上,如果你是一家大公司,他们多频繁地听到你的名字。嗯,这不同于你可以直接衡量结果的东西。嗯,所以那,那意味着他们在某种程度上依靠信念。嗯,而如果这种信念因为实际情况
第 30 段
浮出水面而受到动摇或减弱,那么 Tesla 的收入,Twitter 是以 t 开头的,嗯,该季度的收入,呃,将受到,呃,显著损害,而这是一个重大问题。埃隆,你在谈判期间有机会问这些问题吗?呃,我就像我说的,我依赖的是他们的公开申报文件,所以在那些文件可能公开的程度上,而这对上市公司而言是正常的,如果你,你知道,如果,如果你提交正式文件,嗯,那,那,那就是投资者所依、依赖的东西,无论他们是在提出收购要约,还是仅仅购买一些股票。所以这些,这些文件的准确性很重要,无论你买的是 1 股还是整家公司。因此,如果这些文件不准确,或者它们某种程度上可能是公然的
第 31 段
,这就是大事。你知道,你是否了解为什么这一直是 Twitter 如此持久的问题?他们是没有解决机器人账号问题的技术能力,还是更像只是,他们没有优先处理这个问题,或者不愿这样做,因为这可能会对,呃,广告收入产生影响?我,我,我,我不知道,目前这算是推测。所以,你知道,呃,最糟糕的解释是,他们不想过于仔细地审视这件事,因为他们可能不会喜欢答案。这会是最糟糕的解释。嗯,最,我不确定最好的解释是什么,但最不坏的解释可能是,也许他们以为情况就是这样,但他们的处理方式是错误的,而且他们
第 32 段
没有意识到他们弄错了,只是没有投入足够的注意力。嗯,看起来,清除机器人以及垃圾信息和喷子应该容易得多,而不是,呃,比如这不是什么……我们并不是要在这里分裂原子,你知道,呃,我们也不是要登上月球,好吧,我们只是试图,呃,限制明显属于诈骗的账户数量。如果它,如果它,如果它像是你的比特币赠送活动,嗯,你知道,很可能那是个垃……是个垃圾信息发送者,你知道,比如,它确实也许,你知道,等等,你不是要赠送100枚比特币吗?我刚给你发了,丹尼,如果,如果,如果你给我发2枚比特币,我就还给你1枚,对吧,这就是我的……如果我给你发20枚呢?
第 33 段
实际上,嗯,我认为你的产品路线图中出现的一件有趣的事,嗯,或者我猜这是已经发布并被人们报道了,就是,嗯,Twitter 有可能变成一种包含支付功能的超级应用。嗯,也许甚至可能包括狗狗币或其他东西。依我看,呃,基于你和 David 在 PayPal 所做的工作,这似乎是个相当绝妙的主意。如果你能够买下它,你知道,也许以合适的价格,嗯,那里的愿景是什么?如果,你知道,我可以给 @elonmusk 上的 Jason 转,你知道,10 美元或别的什么,如果,你知道,我们在平摊账单或其他什么。可以。嗯,对那些使用过微信的人来说,我认为微信实际上是一个很好的范例。嗯,如果你在中国,基本上你算是生活
第 34 段
在微信上,它什么都能做。嗯,它有点像 Twitter 加 PayPal,再加上一大堆其他东西,全都整合成一个应用,而且实际上拥有很棒的界面,它确实是一款出色的应用,而我们在中国以外没有任何类似的东西。所以,呃,我认为这样、这样的应用,嗯,会非常,呃,有用。嗯,而且就像它的实用性,呃,一种没有垃圾信息的东西,你可以,你可以发表评论,可以发布视频,可以,呃,你知道,我认为让内容创作者获得收入分成很重要。嗯,现在,现在这不必在 Twitter 上完成,它可以通过某种从零开始创建的东西来完成。所以它可以是某种新东西。嗯,所以真的,但但我认为这种东西需要存在,无论是,呃,把
第 35 段
Twitter 转变为,呃,那种包罗万象的应用,正如所说,从用于辩论重要思想的数字城市广场,呃,你知道,最大限度地值得信赖且具有包容性,到你达到某种高度信任的状态时,那么支付,呃,呃,无论是,呃,加密货币还是法定货币,呃,都可能非常合理。你只,你只想要某种极其有用而且人们喜爱使用的东西。嗯,所以那,但它,它,它要么是把 Twitter 转变成那样,要么从头开始做个新东西,这是 2 个选择,但它确实需要以某种方式发生。嗯,有意思的是你提到了这一点,因为 Twitter 的价格相当高,而你已经创建了几家公司,也有一些工程师愿意来为你工作,并且你现在已经完成了研究这一切的
第 36 段
思维练习。嗯,如果你现在审视这 2 个选择,考虑到所有这些问题去修复 Twitter,和也许直接创建你自己的版本,你更倾向哪一个?因为我,我看着你创建了几家公司,而产品最后都相当不错。所以对你这样的人来说,直接从零开始会更容易吗?我是说,我是说,当然,我,我默认的倾向是从零开始做事情。呃,我是说,我其实不,我不买东西。比如仍然是这种,你知道,呃,嗯,是的,像,像 SpaceX 是从零开始的。你知道,就 Tesla 而言,呃,你知道,当时大概有 5 个人,仍然是这个叫 Eberhard 的家伙,他是我合作过的最糟糕的人,却试图声称好像
第 37 段
灵魂层面的功劳,基本上是因为把 Tesla 等同起来。如果他真有那么了不起,为什么被解雇之后不干脆去,你知道,再创办一家汽车公司呢?嗯,不过不管怎样,嗯,所以,嗯,我的意思是,那是个相当不错的故事。我的意思是,是的,我记得,天啊,我的意思是,不,但我,我记得和你有过这次谈话。我们当时在谈 Roadster,我想这个故事我可以讲。我说,伙计,进展如何?你说,嗯,我有一个问题。嗯,结果发现 Roadster 的零部件以及组装成本是 190 000。
第 38 段
是的,然后我说,我花了150买下编号16。
第 39 段
所以,如果你生产 2000 辆,就会亏损 8000 万美元,而你就像,是的,或者是那个数字的 2 倍。我的意思是,基本上,在你开始参与时,汽车零部件的成本比他们卖车的价格还高。就是这样。这很困难。不,不,我早在那之前就已经参与了。是的,当 Twitter,当 Tesla 还只是一张纸的时候。让我说得一清二楚,[ __ ]清楚。不,他们也没有把我请进来。[音乐] 我本来要创办,我本来要和 jv struggle 一起创办一家 ed 公司,以 AC Propulsion t0 为基础,而当我问 AC Propulsion 是否可以这样做时,他们说,嗯,还有另外一些人也想创办一家电动汽车公司,但还没有创办。是的,你愿意和他们联手吗,然后
第 40 段
我说,好吧,那我们就这么做。那是一个巨大的错误。JB和我当时本应该自己创办那家汽车公司。相反,我们,呃,与埃弗哈德·托平合作了,对吧。嗯,巨大的错误。呃,这里真正的道德错误,是我试图鱼与熊掌兼得,也就是,呃,我只想从事技术和产品工作,让别人担任CEO,并且算是负责业务运营,因为我就是喜欢从事技术、产品和设计工作,而且,嗯,而且当时我还在做SpaceX,你知道,当时我们的火箭一直爆炸,所以看起来,呃,好吧,我一直想创办一家电动汽车公司,这样我就能鱼与熊掌兼得了。那是一个巨大的错误,从根本上说是一个道德
第 41 段
错误。嗯,而且,呃,所以,所以,呃,最后我他妈不得不当CEO,而我基本上并不想当。嗯,所以,但要么这样,要么公司就会死掉。所以,呃,我们起步时真的是什么都没有,而且,呃,你知道,AC Propulsion的t0原型车,并不是,不是,如果那是,那是Tesla的前身。嗯,再明确一次,呃,我们创立Tesla时,我,我加入时,那里没有员工,没有知识产权,没有原型车,什么都没有。是的,我们清楚得[ __ ]不能再清楚了,而且它差点让你破产,我是说,你,那把你逼到了印度的悬崖边,我是说,那是的,我们有太多次都处在破产的危险边缘,荒谬至极。嗯,所以,嗯,而2008年是最糟糕的年份之一,当时基本上,你知道
第 42 段
GM和Ford,简直是GM Jammer Ford,差点破产,而且,嗯,你知道,2008年GM正在破产时,试图为一家初创电动汽车公司融资,呃,至少可以说非常困难。嗯,你知道,人们甚至会因为我向他们开口而生气。呃,他们会说“[ __ ]你”,然后挂断电话。所以Tesla真正挺过2008年的唯一方式,是现有投资者中的一部分人,嗯,其中包括安东尼奥·格拉西亚斯这样的人,还有,呃,你知道,嗯,史蒂夫·乔布森,以及另外几位关键人物,我们的阿伦·普赖斯,呃,我,我对他、对这个州一直怀有感激之债。嗯,而且,而且我把自己剩下的所有钱都投了进去,他们说了一切,真的是一切。嗯,呃,我没有房子,所以,呃,这其实是我的,所以我有过那栋房子,所以我
第 43 段
当时实际上住在杰夫·斯科尔卧室的备用卧室里。嗯,而且,呃,而且,但他们是,那些,呃,那部分投资者会说,好吧,我投入,他们投入的数额和我投入的一样,所以我把一切都投进去了。嗯,而且,而且后来我们在6 p.
第 44 段
m,呃,2008年圣诞夜完成了那轮融资。那是可能完成这件事的最后一天的最后1个小时,因为在那之后,人们就纷纷离开去度假了,而我们会在圣诞节后2天发不出工资。那真是,呃,相当像个门挡,我是说,那是时间中的一个不可思议的时刻。而且,而且人们也忘了,当时SpaceX发射的头2枚火箭,呃,并没有真正进入轨道,就像其中1枚。是的,头3枚。我记得当时和你一起吃晚饭,我问你:“嘿,情况怎么样?我听格洛克说你只剩4周的工资资金了。”你说:“那不是真的。”我说:“谢天谢地。”然后你说:“我们还有2周。”[音乐]我说,不,我是说,2008年,SpaceX和Tesla,如果我们只是按时向供应商付款,我们就会
第 45 段
立刻破产。嘿,告诉我们,告诉我们,实际上,呃,那是,那是一个相当疯狂的时刻,因为我还记得问过你,我们当时在BOA吃晚饭,我说:“好吧,肯定得有些好消息吧。”然后你拿出BlackBerry,为这段对话标注日期。我不记得了。然后你说:“别告诉任何人,雅各布,对吧?”“没问题。”然后你给我看了Model S的黏土版本。是的,那是我见过的最漂亮的车。我说:“哦,我的天,它太惊艳了。它要花多少钱?”你说:“我想我能用5万造出来。”我记得就像昨天一样。我说:“如果你能用5万造出那辆车,你就会改变这个[ __ ]世界。”而你做到了。你知道,价格比5万多了一点,但是,呃,你的怎么样,让我们问问
第 46 段
SpaceX。好吧,那基本上就是,不过我还想问1个更私人的问题:随着这些公司达到规模,你的生活变得更轻松了吗,还是复杂性让生活变得更具挑战性?因为早期只是为了生存而战,没人知道你是谁,你默默无闻,真正重要的只有工作。而现在,让我们面对现实吧,你是全世界最出名的人,所有人都在关注你所做的一切,但这些公司也非常庞大。那么你如今的生活是什么样的?你每天都享受自己正在做的事吗?嗯,好吧,我是说,这有点像坐过山车,所以有好日子,也有坏日子。嗯,而且也有危机问题。嗯,而且,你知道,有点像,你知道,敲敲木头,我们并没有
第 47 段
像,呃,直面死亡,你知道,就像,就像,当死亡正试图把你的脸啃掉,而且泡沫就像,你知道,正在抓住它,而且就在那儿,你知道,你知道,在那种情况下压力相当大。嗯,所以,就像现在,你知道,SpaceX和Tesla都有,嗯,你知道,可观的现金储备,所以,就像,你知道,就像我们在直面死亡,我们多少能在地平线上看到它,你知道。所以我不想变得自满或觉得理所应当,因为它,嗯,但是,但是,如果它不像每天都只是在口吐白沫并真的试图把你的脸啃掉,那,那当然,我们已经走过了那个阶段。嗯,而且希望永远,永远不要回去
第 48 段
。嗯,但是,但是有很多问题需要被,这就像,如果你是一家公司的CEO,杂务量会很大,而如果你不做这些杂务,公司就会完蛋。坦率地说,我讨厌做,做杂务。所以,呃,谁不讨厌呢。那才是真正的,就像,有一大堆算是,呃,你知道,人事问题、法律问题,以及,以及,以及一些我,我,我并不喜欢处理的事情,但如果我不处理它们,公司就会受损。所以更像是,纯粹的工作量大得疯狂,那就是,呃,然后,然后,你知道,再去做一些,再加上,你知道,Twitter之类的东西。是的,我是说,老实说,我是一个额外的处理器。对,对,我是说,我,我有个习惯,就是揽下超过自己所能应付的事情,然后就坐在那里
第 49 段
鼓着花栗鼠一样的脸颊。爱丽丝,跟我们稍微讲讲SpaceX目前的情况,比如你如何为前往火星的能力提供资金,同时又在国内以商业方式继续建设,嗯,一项传统的太空业务。我认为俄罗斯这件事对SpaceX来说可能非常有利,如果你愿意的话,就稍微给我们讲讲。好的。嗯,好吧,我是说,SpaceX的目标是开发让生命能够成为多行星存在的技术,嗯,而且,而且让人类成为一个太空对练文明。我认为这是一件非常激动人心、鼓舞人心的事,而且它就像这样一种事,我认为它就是能让孩子们对未来感到兴奋。我们需要那些鼓舞人心、令人兴奋,并让未来看起来会比
第 50 段
过去更美好的事物。生活不能只是解决1个又1个痛苦的问题,它还必须有,就像,什么是鼓舞人心和令人兴奋的。而我认为,一个我们成为太空银行文明的未来,是我们所有人都能为之兴奋的未来。嗯,而且,而且我们可以走出去,弄清楚宇宙里有什,什么,什么,生命的意义是什么,而且,你知道,外星人在哪里,希望他们很友好,诸如此类。嗯,所以,呃,你知道,有意思的是,我确实经常被问到外星人的问题,而我,我没有看到任何外星人存在的证据。嗯,而且如果我发现了,如果我看到了什么,我会第1个,你知道,发推文谈这件事或者随便怎样。我是说,如果你找到他,你会告诉我们吗?我会告诉你,我肯定会告诉
第 51 段
你是否有外星人。嗯,而且,嗯,你知道,呃,我认为这会相当有帮助,因为,你知道,就像,就像,如果我们发现了外星人,SpaceX的收入可能会多出一大截,因为人们会想:“哦,天啊,外星人,我们要立刻升级太空技术,因为要是你不友好怎么办?”你知道。嗯,它就像,你知道,呃,这个想法是不是,你建立,嗯,基本上开展轨道货运的能力,把所有这些利润拿来发射星链,再拿走所有这些利润,并全部投入建造某种能够抵达火星的东西?这大致是计划吗?差不多。如果它是一个3步的、3张幻灯片的PowerPoint,那基本上就会和你描述的一样,也就是,嗯,开发能够把,呃,卫星送入轨道的火箭
第 52 段
,以及,呃,把乘员送到空间站。嗯,你知道,基本上满足政府和商业太空发射需求。嗯,然后,呃,呃,在太空中建立一个全球通信系统。呃,显然,它通过为服务最匮乏的地区提供互联网连接,互联网连接,为地球做了很多好事,因为卫星系统非常适合偏远地区。嗯,而且,你知道,乡村或,或偏远岛屿,或,或有人试图切断当地互联网、将其作为战争前奏的地方。我们采用那个系统,就像《星球大战》里一样。对,对。所以它就像,你知道,所以它会相当,相当有帮助,就像我认为,就像一首歌,就像基本上,我认为它本身算是一种强力电网。嗯,通过为服务最匮乏的地区提供,呃,连接,而他们已经
第 53 段
要么完全没有连接,要么连接非常昂贵或很差。呃,你知道,嗯,比如我们,我们目前正在连接巴西的许多学校、偏远学校。我其实算是准备前往那里,呃,算是启动这件事,但他们有许多学校完全没有网络连接。而在现代,呃,没有网络连接要怎么学习?我的意思是,我猜你可以拿到旧教科书之类的,但实际上,如果没有数字连接,你就处于极大的劣势。嗯,所以我认为椋鸟仅凭自身就能在这方面做很多好事,但是,但是星链产生的收入可以促成,呃,在月球上建立一个永久的,呃,简陋基地,这将是继阿波罗之后的下一个,你知道,下一个步骤——
第 54 段
也就是说,让我们不要只去那里待几个小时,然后就返回,让我们在月球上那个有人驻守的科学站设一个对手。嗯,我们还可以在月球上建造,嗯,一些相当壮观的,呃,望远镜,呃,让我们能够更多地了解宇宙的本质,弄清楚到底发生了什么,也许还能探测到那些外星人。嗯,你,你,嗯,你认为这些业务有足够的利润为这一切提供资金吗?还是你需要华尔街和其他投资者来与你共同分担?去火星某种程度上会是与政府的合作吗?需要与各国政府合作才能到达那里吗?嗯,我认为从技术上讲,它不需要与各国政府合作。嗯,但当然,呃,政府的支持会——
第 55 段
有所帮助。嗯,所以,我的意思是,在火星上建造一座自给自足的城市将非常昂贵。比如,要让我们以一种有意义的方式成为多行星物种,嗯,关键门槛是这座城市在什么时候能够自给自足,以至于如果来自地球的飞船因任何原因停止前来,而原因可能是任何事情,可能是第三次世界大战,也可能只是,你知道,文明衰退了,并且,嗯,并且逐渐变得破败之类的。但是,但是如果飞船停止前来,来自地球的3艘补给船因任何原因停止前往火星,这座城市还能生存吗?而这确实需要火星上有一个非常庞大的资源基础。呃,任何一种关键要素都不能缺少。呃,所以,而且你可以——
第 56 段
把这看作存在各种“大过滤器”。嗯,你知道,它们或许会阻止文明,而其中一个大过滤器是,我们是否会成为一个多行星物种?人类会不会成为那些通过超越单一行星、成为多行星物种这一大过滤器的物种之一?而这当然是我们在某个时刻必须做的事情,因为这,太阳正在膨胀,最终会煮沸海洋并摧毁你在地球上的生命。所以,如果你关心地球上的生命,就真的应该关心生命成为多行星物种,并最终成为多恒星物种,因为否则你基本上就是在说,你正在给我们所知的一切生命签署某种死刑执行令,这是不可避免的。嗯,然后还有,还有各种——
第 57 段
那些杀死,你知道,恐龙的东西,而且,而且我的意思是,你看看化石记录,曾经发生过5次大灭绝,呃,规模大概是地球上89、80%到90%的所有生物死亡,嗯,原因多种多样,嗯,但是,呃,然后人类也可能,你知道,对我们来说有第三次世界大战的危险,嗯,这是其他生物没有的,我们可能会毁灭自己,嗯,因为某种程度上误用先进技术,而且某种程度上就是,你知道,第三次世界大战后只剩下某个放射性地狱,所以,嗯,你知道,你甚至可以把它描述为,哪一个会先发生:第三次世界大战,还是,呃,生命在火星上成为多行星物种,嗯,是的,抱歉,我本来要转到
第 58 段
但是,嗯,你知道,当你思考前往火星的重要性,与解决地球上关键的能源和气候变化问题相比时,显然,Tesla 的努力与可持续能源有关,而且我认为,追溯到大概1950年代,当时就有围绕等离子体聚变或基于聚变的系统的工程设计,它们后来演变成这些等离子体系统、这些托卡马克系统,而每一年、每十年,人们都像是在说,嘿,下一个十年我们就能实现了。你对等离子体聚变系统目前所处阶段有什么看法?我们会在本世纪、本十年拥有聚变能源吗?它是否会创造无限能源,让发电量增加10000倍,电价下降10000倍,然后
第 59 段
如果那发生了,地球上的世界会是什么样子?所以我想,问题就是,那项技术是真的吗,它什么时候会实现,而一旦实现或者如果实现了,这里的世界会发生什么?我会回答那个问题,但然后让我先指出,真正的问题是什么。呃,如果问题是,呃,解决聚变能源是否可能,呃,100,是的,绝对、绝对、绝对、绝对可以,肯定可以。嗯,所以,而且,而且,而且实际上只需使用托卡马克式的装置,它基本上就像一个甜甜圈形的环,配有,呃,呃,用来控制等离子体的电磁铁。呃,解决这个问题的方法就是扩大托卡马克的规模。呃,聚变在很大程度上是一件基于规模的事情,你要尽量降低表面积体积比,所以当你扩大一个
第 60 段
托卡马克的规模时,你会降低表面积体积比,这意味着,比如,相对于这个表面,你所拥有的体积,呃,你现在拥有多得多的,呃,比如你基本上可以在中心形成一个高温区,它离壁面相对较远,而且有更大的高温区。嗯,所以,所以在我看来,问题并不在于是否哪种聚变能够奏效,而在于它在经济上是否可行,嗯,以及它与,呃,与其他替代方案相比是否有竞争力。我认为聚变的经济可行性是一个大得多的问题,而我,我认为答案可能是,一种聚变,地球聚变,在经济上不具竞争力。我认为那是,那是,呃,我会说,它在经济上可能相差1个数量级,缺乏竞争力
第 61 段
问题出在哪里?是材料失效,还是它在经济上的问题出在哪里?嗯,所以,所以你不能只是,嗯,使用,呃,普通氢,你知道,你,你需要使用像氘和氚这样的氢的特殊形态,还有氦-3。呃,你知道,有,嗯,有一些,呃,一些,呃,其他类型的聚变可以使用,呃,但是,嗯,这些就是并不,它们并不像是,这类原材料并不多,而且很难获得原材料。所以首先你必须获得原材料,呃,那是,那是昂贵的原材料。嗯,然后,嗯,这不只是产生能量的问题,你还得,嗯,把那种能量转化为可用的电力。你不能只是有一个高温的东西,好吧。所以这个高温的东西必须转化为可用的电力,所以
第 62 段
我认为你有,你有一个燃料成本问题,这个问题非常重大;呃,从你产生热量,到你真正把它转化为电力,中间会有一大堆折损;流出反应堆还有一些非常困难的维护问题。[音乐] 所以,呃,然后还应当把它与替代方案进行比较。呃,我认为具有压倒性竞争优势的可持续能源替代方案是,[音乐] 太阳能、风能、地热、水电,呃,还有一些潮汐和能源,但实际上主要是,呃,太阳能,呃,以及,以及风能。嗯,现在你真的可以说,比如,既然我们在天空中有一个巨大的聚变反应堆,它完全无需维护就能运行,而且它每
第 63 段
天,对吧?它相当稳定。是的,但埃隆,我们能否利用太阳能和其他可再生能源,把这里的发电量扩大到1000倍或100倍?可以。所以,为美国供电所需的,呃,地表面积小得惊人。嗯,所以基本上你大概需要一块100英里乘100英里的区域,而它显然不需要集中在一个地方,呃,在美国境内就可以为美国供电。那就像得克萨斯州或犹他州的一小块角落,却能为整个国家供电。嗯,而且,然后如果你,如果你,你基本上可以仅靠太阳能就为,呃,你,你可能可以把规模扩大到10倍,嗯,不需要搬走,呃,任何人的房屋,呃,在美国的土地上,为一个规模是美国10倍的经济体供电。当,当能源价格
第 64 段
如果你说,如果你把它扩展到水域,因为地球有70%是水。是的,我的意思是,你可以,你可以说,好吧,现在我们的文明所消耗的能源强度可能可以达到目前的100倍。那么,我问题的最后一部分是,在一个能源成本正在说它比今天便宜100倍,而且我们的能源生产能力增加100倍的世界里,那会是什么样子?文明会发生什么变化?我们会以不同方式做什么?我们会看到什么发生最为剧烈的变化?嗯,目前并不会,因为世界几乎各地的出生率普遍都很低,文明并不会走向人口比我们,我们目前算是所处的水平高1个数量级
第 65 段
我们目前正走向人口下降,呃,而且世界上几乎到处都是如此。嗯,所以,你知道,基本上看起来,只要出现了,比如,城市化,嗯,以及,以及,以及超过某个水平的教育和处于某个水平之上的收入,出生率就会暴跌。嗯,所以随着国家变得,变得更富裕,它们的出生率会暴跌。这,这有些违反直觉,因为人们会说,比如,嗯,养一个孩子太贵了。不,越富有的人,拥有的孩子就越少。嗯,你受教育程度越高,拥有的孩子就越少。所以,嗯,它,它是一个,它是,它是,它是相反的关系。嗯,所以,所以我不确定谁来使用所有那些能源,嗯,除非增长率出现重大变化,嗯,或者我们拥有一个高度以机器人为导向的
第 66 段
经济体。所以那也是可能的。所以如果我们有很多,嗯,你知道,四轮机器人、被告知的汽车,以及,呃,仿生人、人形机器人,那么你当然可以预见,或许会需要多1个数量级的能源,但这并不是来自人类,除非在人类,呃,出生率,呃,水平上发生某种重大变化。呃,顺便说一下,我认为这是目前对文明最大的单一威胁。为什么,当人们变得更富裕时,你认为他们在社会层面为什么会作出那些决定?是因为他们变得更自私了,还是因为他们有更多事情可做,也有更多的钱花在自己身上,于是他们说,你知道吗,我不想要一个大家庭,我想要,你知道,去科切拉音乐节。是的
第 67 段
嗯,存在这种奇怪的,像精神病毒一样的东西,有些人认为,少生孩子好像对环境更好,是啊,那太疯狂了,完全是一派胡言,环境会没事的,他们也会没事的,即使我们,即使我们把人类的规模扩大1倍,嗯,这是,而且我非常了解环境方面的事情,所以,嗯,你知道,呃,我们不能让文明就这样逐渐衰退直至消失,嗯,而且你知道,日本是这里的领先指标,比如日本人口去年减少了600 000人,那是历史上最低的出生率,呃,这个,你知道,情况相当糟糕,嗯,所以我们,我不知道,我们,而且我认为,所以,所以其中一个因素就是,很多人只是觉得生孩子不知怎么地会对环境有害,我想要
第 68 段
说清楚,并不会,对我来说,这对于维持文明至关重要,那至少能维持我们的人口数量,我们不一定需要大幅增长,但至少不要,呃,你知道,逐渐衰退下去,直到,呃,文明在我们所有人都穿着成人纸尿裤时终结,悄无声息地结束,就像,我们不希望文明在穿着成人纸尿裤时悄无声息地终结,那会挺糟糕的,是啊,Lee,嗯,我的意思是,而且你和我谈过这件事,我是说,我在日本时有2个人告诉我,类似于,我认为把人类带到这个世界上是不道德的,我的意思是,人们对未来变得非常悲观,这有点疯狂,生活很棒,是的,不,这个,我真的听过很多次这种话,比如,我怎么能把一个孩子带到这个
第 69 段
糟糕的世界上,我就说,你读过历史吗,因为让我告诉你,那时候糟糕多了,明白吗,是啊,现在是个好时代,是个好时代,嘿,你知道,听着,我,我知道你忙得不可开交,但我想问问你搬到得克萨斯州的事,因为我一直在思考这个问题,呃,奥斯汀,加利福尼亚,我不知道,某位参议员叫你去[ __ ]自己,而且,就像,你知道,就像我们不知道,他已经,有几位参议员确实都这么说了,是啊,这似乎正在变成一种趋势,嗯,但建造Tesla超级工厂的情况怎么样,我几周前在奥斯汀参观了它,那是我见过最鼓舞人心的事物之一,我的意思是,我不知道在那里花了多少个月建造它,但建造那艘无畏舰花了多长时间,然后要是
第 70 段
在加文·纽森治下的加利福尼亚州建造它会花多长时间,所以我们建造了这座得克萨斯超级工厂,它是北美最大的因素,我认为可能也是世界上最大的因素,嗯,为了让你感受一下它的规模,它是五角大楼的3倍,好吧,这地方大得吓人,它就像,它大得很怪异,就像,你只会觉得,我当时想在里面找到你,我试着开车四处转,花了我大约45分钟才找到你,是啊,就像,不,你必须,比如,打电话,你没法在那个世界里找到某个人,你必须打他们的手机并问,你在哪里,你知道,嗯,所以,我的意思是,这座建筑大概,呃,长度略少于1英里,而且我们实际上还会扩建它,它真的会有1英里长
第 71 段
嗯,宽约四分之一英里,呃,而且它,呃,高80英尺,所以它就是,呃,大得荒唐,嗯,当你考虑制造业的情况,比如,真正决定制造业竞争力的2项,2项因素是什么,那就是规模经济和技术,所以,如果你在经济方面拿到一张A,比如,如果你在技术上把自己的A等级最大化,同时在规模上把自己的A等级最大化,这显然会是最具竞争力的局面,而这就是它们为什么大得吓人,嗯,而且这座得克萨斯超级工厂会涵盖从原材料开始的全部流程,比如,比如运载电芯原材料的火车车厢驶入,然后制造,电池电芯,再制造电池包,呃,制造,电机,呃,铸造,我们还
第 72 段
引入了一项重大创新,也就是把汽车的整个前三分之一和后三分之一铸造成一个部件,嗯,其实我是从玩具那里得到这个想法的,因为我当时想,他们是怎么制造玩具的,那些东西很便宜,他们就是把它们铸造出来,我当时就想,那么你能造出那么大的压铸机吗,他们说,嗯,从来没有人做过,我就说,这有违反物理规律吗,比如,没有,那我们就去问他们,全球有6家主要的压铸机供应商,其中5家说不行,6家说也许可以,我就说,我就把它当作可以了,嗯,我的意思是,你曾想为Model 3这么做,但当时就是太早了,对吧,而,而现在差不多实现了,是啊,实际上这个,这部分源自Model 3,它在很多方面其实是一辆很棒的车
第 73 段
但我们因前车身和后车身的低效设计而受到批评,这是应该的,嗯,比如Sandy Monroe,我认为他确实,从工程角度看非常出色,而且,而且确实是一位非常公正的批评者,他因为,嗯,电池的设计对我们一通猛批,并逐件告诉你为什么你这么差,是啊,然后他又做了那个“为什么”,告诉你为什么你很棒,他把它拆开,准确地告诉我们我们为什么很差,而他说得对,嗯,然后,而且我当时想,嗯,那挺丢人的,所以,呃,不,他确实称赞了汽车的其他部分,但没有称赞车身设计,而且,呃,所以就像,好吧,我们要从,比如,你知道,呃,这就是一个极难制造的部件,它由大约120个不同的零件制成,使用
第 74 段
连接在一起的不同金属,而且你还面临电偶腐蚀方面的挑战,它非常难制造,嗯,变成一个单件铸件,那就是1个部件,所以大约120个部件减少到了大约1个,所以,嗯,这个,这个,这是一项,一项巨大的,而且那个,比如Model Y车身车间,尤其是我们将前部和后部都进行铸造的新车间,比Model 3车身车间小60,所以它,你知道,是巨大的,这个相当,Tesla除了那些显而易见的东西之外还有很多创新,是啊,嗯,所以总之,是啊,那个,但是如果,而且说真的,你知道,公平地说加文·纽森,比如,呃,你知道,如果你,如果你拿枪指着加文的头,好吧,嗯,然后说,我们现在就需要在加利福尼亚州开始建造这座工厂,他也做不到,因为那里有
第 75 段
太多,呃,监管机构,嗯,而且加利福尼亚州有太多,呃,想阻止你做任何事情的诉讼律师,以至于即使你是这个州的州长,你也无法把事情办成,嗯,所以必须采取些措施来,来,来,来,你知道,因为加利福尼亚州曾经是机会之地,而且它是一个美丽的州,我也喜欢,我以前很喜欢住在那里,而且我仍然会花很多时间待在加利福尼亚州,尽管我每次去那里都会收到,每,我去那里的每一天,真的每一天,我都会收到天哪税款,按天计的一大笔税单,是啊,就像我去加利福尼亚州工作那些天的单日成本之高令人难以置信,而且,但我仍然会去做,你知道,嗯,但是,但是,加利福尼亚州已经从机会之地变成了,变成了某种税收,呃,过度监管之地
第 76 段
以及诉讼,而这不是一个好局面,加州确实必须来一次彻底的管道清理。建成奥斯汀超级工厂用了多少个月?花了1年半,2年,对,18,18个月建成一个面积是五角大楼3倍的东西,难以置信。而对于在加州需要多少个月这个问题,你基本上只能回答:无限期。我们现在可能还在办理许可证。对,埃隆,这就引出了一个很好的问题,就是,我都准备毕业了,而你只是一直签文件,但我们还有1份表格要你填。什么是更好的模式?对,什么是更好的政府模式?所以,你知道,所有政府的复杂程度往往都会增加,独裁能力……独裁是正确的模式吗?
第 77 段
而且,嗯,你知道,就像,就像我们该如何解决这个问题?假设你去火星,或者假设你必须修复加州,加州是永久坏掉了吗?有没有办法修好它?或者说,你该如何建立一个更好的模式,以免最终陷入这种会杀死,呃,人口的特殊利益复杂局面?我的意思是,我认为归根结底,加州人民就是必须感到受够了,并要求改变。嗯,这才是真正必须发生的事。嗯,而且,而且共和党在加州获胜的概率必须高于0%。如果,如果,如果,如果每次都是民主党,你就必须,你知道,而这,这就像偶尔,呃,问题是,现在,现在
第 78 段
呃,再加上选区划分操纵的程度、程度,呃,这基本上就是把人民当作羊群,呃,而且,而且这很糟糕。嗯,加州发生的这种情况令人愤慨。所以在加州,呃,民主党在加州的众议院和参议院拥有超级多数席位,还掌握州长职位和一切,那么,如果任何政党都保证能获胜,它会对人民的诉求作出多大回应?这是一个一党制州。所以我不是说,你知道,每次都去选共和党,但如果永远都不选,你,你只是在把加州变成一个一党制州。他们将不再对人民负责、回应人民,而只会回应那些资助其政治竞选活动的人。把埃隆这番话剪成片段,在电视上反复播放30秒,开始。
第 79 段
前面,性,是的,所以埃隆,转向经济这个话题,嗯,你知道,我们看到了这份,呃,出人意料的负1.
第 80 段
4的第一季度GDP增长,呃,利率一直在上升,这增加了消费者获得贷款之类的成本。我们的股市经历了回调,许多成长股、软件股实际上遭遇了崩盘。嗯,从你所处的位置以及你看到的数据来看,呃,你认为经济现在正走向何方?你认为我们正处于衰退之中,还是这只是一种风险?你如何,你如何评估我们当前的经济形势?嗯,预测经济记录,经济学总是很困难。嗯,而且,而且想给这些事情分配概率。嗯,但讽刺的是,去年确实有人问我对经济有何看法,我说,嗯,我认为我们可能会在大约,呃,呃,2020年,2022年春季进入衰退。
第 81 段
说中了,完全说中了。嗯,对。嗯,所以,呃,现在问题是,衰退未必是坏事。呃,它们,它们,你知道,嗯,我现在已经经历过几次衰退,而发生的情况是,如果你有,嗯,一场持续太久的繁荣,就会出现资本错配。呃,基本上,钱开始像下雨一样落到傻瓜头上,就好像任何、任何愚蠢的东西都能拿到钱,我相信你已经见过其中一些。嗯,所以起初,在某个时刻,情况会彻底失控,你就会出现人力资本的错配,呃,人们在做一些愚蠢、对其他人没有用处的事情。嗯,而且,而且那些公司需要来一次某种经济灌肠,可以这么说。嗯,让每个人都有些不自在地在座位上挪动一下。[音乐]
第 82 段
嗯,抱歉,只是把它形象化了,经济敌人,我是说,听着,它有头韵。嗯,所以这最终也会过去,经济敌人完成它的工作,可以说,它会清理管道。是的,而且,嗯,而且,而且可以说那些,那些,那些 [ __ ] 公司,嗯,呃,会破产,而那些在做有用产品的公司,呃,会繁荣。嗯,而且,嗯,但这里肯定有一个教训:如果一个人在制造有用的产品,而且,而且拥有一家说得通的公司,呃,要确保从资本角度来看,不要让经营太接近极限;要有一些资本储备,以撑过,呃,不理性的时期。因为在,在过去发生经济衰退时,嗯,它会,它非常惊人,就像电灯开关一样瞬间翻转。我是说,David,你还记得
第 83 段
这件事吗?从,从 PayPal,你知道,前 PayPal 的那些日子,当时我们,呃,在2000年3月筹集了1亿美元。呃,而且我们真的,我们当时面对的需求非常高,我们有,呃,像风险投资人这样的人,简直是甚至连投资条款清单都没有,就直接把钱汇进我们的账户。嗯,“我们之后再发投资条款清单。”真的,他们就像,他们像侦探一样查出了我们的,我们的银行账号,然后把钱汇进来,而我们会说,这钱是从哪里来的?然后就像,嗯,他们,所以就像在2000年3月,真的有钱像消防水管喷水一样灌进来,而,然后到了2000年4月,市场开始自由落体。从筹钱,筹钱轻而易举,变成甚至好公司也无法筹到钱,呃,就在1个月之内。嗯,所以,只是要记住,比如,你知道,PayPal 几乎
第 84 段
在2000年破产。呃,我们差一点就破产了。嗯,但,但谢天谢地,我们确实在2000年3月筹到了那1亿美元。呃,如果没有那笔钱,基本上就会是,呃,可能游戏结束了。嗯,呃,而且我们有点预见到它要来了,所以就像,我们,我们,我们在大约3周内完成了那个 x 与 Confinity 的合并,并筹集了1亿美元,因为我们当时就像,哦,怎么说,我们看到这很快就要走到尽头了。然后1个月后,那就像,你知道,基本上是一场噩梦。嗯,而且,而且,呃,不管怎样,重要的只是要确保,如果你是一家健康的公司,你有一些资本撑过这些事情。嗯,而且,然后你的成本是什么,而且,呃,如果你,如果,如果这是经济衰退,更有可能是经济衰退,并不是说它就是,但可能是。嗯
第 85 段
那么就,呃,弄清你的现金流,并让那个警察尽快实现正现金流。嗯,所以,嗯,是的,呃,但我认为我们可能已经,已经处于经济衰退之中,而且那场经济衰退会变得,变得更糟。嗯,但你知道,这些事情会过去,然后繁荣时期会再次到来。嗯,所以可能会有一段艰难时期,我不知道,1年。呃,也许,也许,你知道,12到18个月通常是,嗯,一次调整发生所需要的时间。嗯,你们觉得呢?是的,我,David,呃,你对此感觉如何?是的,我是说,感觉它已经开始了。嗯,你知道,今年早些时候以放缓开始的事情,嗯,现在看起来像是,我是说,严格来说,我想我们需要连续2个季度负增长才算处于经济衰退,但感觉我们
第 86 段
正处于一次衰退中,感觉它已经开始了。嗯,你知道,我们投资的成长股、软件企业算是煤矿里的金丝雀,而现在有很多,很多死去的金丝雀,呃,呼吸困难。是的。[笑声] 它只是短暂地被震晕了,而且,而且它会没事的。嗯,这让我想起了那只鹦鹉,你知道,宠物店小品里的那只鹦鹉,或者说那只鹦鹉,那是《Monty Python》。嗯,它在怀念,那只鹦鹉正在怀念峡湾。嘿,嗯,埃隆·马斯克,在我们即将结束之际,人们已经谈了很多,而你非常慷慨地给了我们这么多时间,谢谢你。嗯,过去几年里,人们谈论了很多美国例外论正在衰落,也许这个国家最好的日子已经过去了。然后,呃,我们看到你正在做的工作,以及其他
第 87 段
这个伟大国家里的人正在做的事情,还有我们正在进行的关于未来的辩论。而且,是的,中国表现得相当出色,冲刺正陷入困境,但看起来,呃,美国仍然在创造一些世界有史以来最伟大的公司,呃,以及一些最伟大的创新。你对美国、我们的未来,以及为了让这个国家继续成为这个希望灯塔,我们需要做什么,有什么看法?你知道,我们5个人里有4个不是在这里出生的。你知道,你们中有2个来自南非,而,不,是你们中有3个,你们中有3个来自南非,你们中有1个来自加拿大。我不知道他们在放什么,来自斯里兰卡,也来自斯里兰卡,并且途经加拿大,加拿大途径加拿大,他也是从加拿大过来的。是的,我知道,看起来那就是,那就是那条路
第 88 段
加拿大是一扇门户,它确实是一扇门户,而我们要怎么做,这是一个,好吧,我在这里暗示答案,但你知道,我们的移民政策确实看起来完全疯狂。然后,呃,也许我们需要继续汇聚一些我有机会在这里与之同台的优秀人士,也包括你本人。我们需要继续把优秀的人带到这个国家。为什么我们不能把这一点牢记在脑子里,就是,是的,这是人才招募。不,绝对如此。我认为,呃,让美国成为全世界最优秀人才的目的地,这极其重要。我是说,你可以把这想成,比如,比如,比如一支职业运动队,如果你想赢得联赛。嗯,而且,而且,呃,你知道,你会希望最优秀的运动员加入你的队伍。嗯,现在,显然有很多非常有才华的人出生
第 89 段
在美国,嗯,但如果你能从,呃,从,呃,国外给球队增加几张王牌,你就会赢得联赛,嗯,而且,而且,而且事情是这样的,那些王牌其实想为你的球队效力,他们不想与你竞争,他们想,他们想,为什么我们不想加入美国队,而且,所以这就像是我们不得不把他们挡在外面,不让他们加入美国队,这才是疯狂之处,嗯,所以这就像是,如果你有一些王牌,他们,他们决定了输赢,我们就应该真正招募他们,就像你会招募一个明星篮球运动员或橄榄球运动员一样,这就是我们应该做的,嗯,主动招募,嗯,就像如果你是一家想要,想要成功的公司,你会主动招募最优秀的人才
第 90 段
然后,而且,而且,那就是获胜之道,而且,而且,如果这种情况不再发生,美国就会停止获胜,而我们连续两届政府,拜登和特朗普,都不想让最伟大的头脑、最有才华的人进入这个国家,这绝对是疯了,我是说,我觉得他们每天都在处理这个问题,现实其实是,任何,任何将会、想要,想要,想要努力工作并且成为,并且做有用事情的人,嗯,在这个,你知道,呃,我们,我们都希望他们来美国,嗯,而且不只是那些在智力方面有优势的人,而是任何有强烈工作热情的人,你知道,如果,如果他们来自墨西哥,或者如果他们来自,你知道,欧洲或中国,无论哪里,只要他们会来到这里拼命干活
第 91 段
而且,而且,贡献比索取更多,那当然好,我是说,这就是,这根本不用考虑。你有没有,你有没有对拜登和特朗普在这方面的相似之处感到失望,比如,也许你可以预料特朗普会这样,因为那是他为了当选需要使用的说辞,但拜登也并没有彻底转变,说,好吧,我们要朝另一个方向转180度,他算是维持了原样,这其实非常令人惊讶。伙计,很难看出“咬”在做什么,如果我们告诉弗兰克,嗯,是的,就像我觉得这比伯尼的更弱,真正的总统是控制提词器的人,你知道,这就像,这就像通往权力的道路就是通往提词器的道路,你知道,就像,什么,什么,因为那
第 92 段
然后他就照着提词器念,所以,你知道,我确实觉得,就像,如果,如果有人不小心靠在,靠在提词器上,那就会像《王牌播音员》一样,就会像 qqq asdf123,你知道,诸如此类的东西,嗯,我是说,公平地说,拜登他,他没有按自己需要的那样睡那么多觉,但只是,很难,很难有事情得到完成,你知道,我是说,这届政府就是,它似乎没有完成很多事情,就像,而且,你知道,嗯,随便吧,就像特朗普政府,撇开特朗普不谈,政府里有很多人能有效地把事情做成,所以,呃,但这届,这届政府似乎就是,就是没有那种动力把你做完,呃,那,那,嗯,那就是我的,这,这是我的印象
第 93 段
嗯,所以,嗯,你知道,我们肯定需要修正移民政策,比如我们曾经有隐蔽的东西,这是一个问题,而且,而且,而且,所以那就像是一个原因,比如不,你知道,我想,是对它进行打压,但现在,现在我们已经继续向前了,所以让我们,让我们确保把强硬的人才引进美国,呃,而且,而且,说得宽泛些,我会说,就是任何想为 [ __ ] 工作的人,嗯,而且,而且,呃,而且对经济的贡献超过索取的人,就像,这必然会让美国社会变得更强大、更美好。埃隆,你有没有看到,呃,杰夫,呃,贝索斯与拜登之间来回发的推文,嗯,我想拜登当时在谈通货膨胀,通货膨胀,但随后他把它与向企业征税联系起来,而贝索斯说这是错误信息和虚假信息
第 94 段
等等等等,你对那整场来回交锋怎么看?我是说,通货膨胀的明显原因是政府印了比它拥有的多无数倍的钱,呃,显然,嗯,所以就像,政府不能只是,呃,你知道,[音乐],嗯,开出远远超过收入的支票而不引发通货膨胀,嗯,你知道,在货币流通速度保持不变的情况下,所以除非货币流通速度发生某种变化,但,但是,你看,这个,这个,如果联邦政府开支票,它们不会,它们永远不会跳票,所以那实际上就是创造更多的,更多的美元,而如果,如果创造的美元数量超过经济所产出的商品和服务的增量,那么就会出现通货膨胀,再说一次,流通速度
第 95 段
货币保持不变,嗯,但所以,呃,这只是,这是非常基础的,这不像是,呃,你知道,呃,超级复杂,嗯,而且如果,如果政府可以直接发行,呃,巨额资金,并且拥有它,而且赤字并不重要,那我们为什么不直接把赤字扩大100倍?好吧,答案是你不能,因为那基本上会让美元变成毫无价值的东西,所以,嗯,而且各个国家已经,已经多次尝试过这个实验了,这并不是说,哦,我想知道如果这么做,如果,如果这么做会发生什么。是的,你见过委内瑞拉吗,就像委内瑞拉那些可怜的人,你知道,一直被他们的政府肆意践踏,嗯,所以显然你不能只是,呃,创造货币,真实经济非常重要,就像
第 96 段
真正的经济是商品和服务的产出,它不是货币,它它实际上就是商品和服务的产出是什么,货币只是一种让我们能够,能够让我们,或者任何你称之为货币的东西,呃,是是让我们无需进行以物易物就能方便交换商品和服务的一种方式,也是将义务在时间上转移的一种方式,那就是你拥有货币的2个原因,这个叫作货币的东西,它它其实,它是一个数据库,货币是一个信息系统,用于呃,用于劳动力分配、商品和服务交换,以及在时间上转换,而这些信息的质量取决于,它就像你基本上可以把信息论应用到货币上,而而我认为,这这有助于解释为什么一种货币体系是,或者为什么
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一种行动比另一种更好,所以如果,比如说货币,你你就就像一个互联网连接一样,你会想要带宽高、呃延迟和抖动低,而且呃不丢包、系统中没有大量错误的东西,嗯,货币也是如此,嗯,你你想要,那么其实就像你说的,PayPal 真正真正做了什么,帮助提升了货币流动的带宽,也就是货币流动的速度,嗯,而不是来回邮寄支票,令人惊讶的是,那就是人们在 2000 年做的事,呃,嗯,呃,你你现在可以实时交换货币,嗯,而且而且现在你可以立即发货,而不是邮寄支票并等待银行完成支票清算,所以呃,比如,而且而且这个这个
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最终的东西,和 PayPal 一起,或者或者如果它某种程度上是在 X 里。
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com 某种程度上不再那么偏向利基支付,而是更偏向广泛的金融,那就是简单地,呃,就是在所有那些运行于大型机上、进行批处理的异构钴数据库之间充当中介,并建立一个安全的单一实时系统,嗯,而不是批处理,嗯,所以从信息角度来看,它只会更加高效,而且而且最终由银行运营的所有那些批处理 cobal 大型机都会不复存在。你已经,嗯,在中国投入的时间和建设的东西几乎比任何人都多,我的意思是,我能想到的唯一一家业务版图可能更大的公司就是 Apple,但我不确定。关于中国,你了解到哪些你以前不知道的事情,在你
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在那里开设工厂并开始在那里交付汽车,而我们应该了解中国的哪些方面,你知道,作为美国人,我们应该如何看待中国以及我们与它的关系,因为我们没有在那里待过,当然,好吧,我想说,首先,中国并非铁板一块,不是说呃每件事每件事都是中国政府的某种阴谋,嗯,呃,那个那个,中国内部有许多呃派系,它们在中国内部展开激烈竞争,嗯,而且呃,所以,嗯,而且而且而且或许最重要的是,中国有数量极其庞大的勤奋、聪明的人,他们想要出人头地,把事情做成,嗯,而且他们并不自满,也不觉得自己理所应得,嗯,而且他们会,他们,他们想把事情做成,而且他们他们
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想让自己过上更好的生活,嗯,而我们将看到的,呃,也就是中国,对呃对所有还活着的人来说,这是有记忆以来第一次,将出现一个规模是美国 2 倍、甚至可能是美国 3 倍的经济体,生活在那个世界里会非常奇怪,所以呃,我们我们最好停止 U. 内部的内斗。
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s,并开始往自己脸上挥拳,因为比如,美国狠狠打自己脸的情况实在太多了,呃,你知道,这就只是只是愚蠢,嗯,而且而且要想想,比如,嘿,我们必须在这里保持竞争力,而且而且呃,街区里来了个新家伙,规模将是我们的 2 到 3 倍,我们最好提升自己的水平,嗯,而且呃,你知道,并停止内斗,嗯,你认为在我们被打败后更容易停止内斗,还是认为这里的人实际上有办法,就是你知道,在政治和商业上协调行动,但是,还是非得等到我们意识到自己已经输了才会发生,或者我们需要一场战争吗,我的意思是,我们,我当然希望我们不需要战争,嗯,呃,但肯定会有,嗯,你知道,一场经济竞争,
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我认为,会会让人们大吃一惊,嗯,当他们意识到要与中国的公司竞争,自己必须多么有竞争力时,这非常困难,你知道,Tesla 有竞争力,酒店有竞争力,因为我们在中国拥有一支出色的团队,呃,你知道,所以,嗯,比如,你的 Tesla 中国员工工作的时间会不会多出一个显著比例,或者比你的非中国 Tesla 员工更努力,你是否觉得,比如,这基本上是 2 家不同的公司,嗯,我的意思是,我我认为 Tesla 在职业道德方面某种程度上,它,它说明我们在世界任何地方都算是相当靠前,所以呃,我认为美国关于职业道德的那些故事,远胜于我所知道的任何其他汽车公司,或者或者任何大型制造企业,所以你知道,Tesla,Tesla 确实
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在美国确实有一种一种很强的价值工作职业道德。
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但但完全坦率地说,它它,那种工作,那种职业道德,总体而言被,嗯,呃,被它告诉一家中国团队超越了,那那一点我认为客观上属实,所以这不是说告诉美国那里没有很多勤奋的人。
第 106 段
当然有,但如果你说平均而言,中国的那种那种那种职业道德更强,那就只是告诉我们,告诉我们你怎么称呼它,就按事实说,你知道,那么,如果你是一名美国 CEO,你要怎么应对,你是否认为就是需要管理公司内部所有这些政治派系,你可能看到了,你知道,与 Disney 有关的所有那些风暴和错误,以及发生在他们身上的事情,还有双方持续发生在他们身上的事情,包括他们的员工以及政府等等,嗯,你有什么建议,或者你会怎样告诉,比如,和你来往的年轻 CEO,应该如何应对这种情况,如何做出那些决定,你会落在处理所有这些事情的光谱上的什么位置,那些现在与
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你知道,每天上班有关的非工作问题,我不确定我完全明白你的意思,比如呃,你知道,尽管无论是对政治正确的需要,还是持有政治观点并且不得不把它带到工作场所加以平衡的需要,你要如何应对,你会怎样建议其他人应对它,听着,我认为,它,你知道,公司的意义是为你的同胞生产有用的产品和服务,它不是呃,你知道,某种政治聚会场所,也不是一种,如果那是公司的意义,比如说它,我会说,比如说它,你知道,政治和其他东西应该,我们不要忽视公司为何应该存在,嗯,[音乐] 所以我我我我得,我得,我我其实迟到了
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因为,是的,我道歉,我要去研究火箭了,各位,呃,是的,嗯,我们就让你,呃,去火星吧,呃,我很快再见你。[音乐] 而且他们刚刚都疯了。[音乐] 我们需要得到仁慈。[音乐]
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so uh live from an undisclosed location with the sultry filter on very sultry filter on yeah having a great hair day yeah that is a good hair day great hair day my pal and your favorite ceo and twitterer mr elon musk how you doing palette [Applause] [Music] appreciate you uh coming to the event and um or coming zooming in um what's new in your world um well let's see um i guess right now uh i'm sort of debating the number of bots on twitter [Music] [Applause] on twitter um and um the currently i'd like to what what i'm being told is that the uh there's just no way to know the number of bots it's like as unknowable as the human soul basically so you have an idea witchcraft and alchemy is needed to determine these for the spot percentage i said like why
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don't i try calling people but i haven't got a response you know like if you tried calling people or something you know like maybe trying to answer it's not about no no no i don't know but i think like that would be one of the things to do to say like have you tried calling them as opposed to trying to read the tea leaves here that's like impossible you know uh obviously you can have an account that looks exactly like a human account or is being operated where one person is operating a thousand accounts or something um but that person can only buy one toaster they're not gonna buy a thousand toasters so you care about like number of unique real people that are on the system it's extremely fundamental and anyone who uses twitter is well aware that uh the
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their comment the comment threads are are full of spam scam and and um just a lot of you know fake accounts so um it's it seems uh beyond beyond reasonable for twitter to claim that the number of uh essentially the number of re said another way the number of real unique humans uh that you see making comments on a daily basis on twitter is above 95 percent that is what they're claiming does anyone have that experience [Music] [Laughter] i'd like to sell you you know you know and also you can buy the brooklyn bridge um what do you think it is what yeah what's what's the uh i mean it's not five percent what is it um i think it's some number that is probably at least uh four or five times that number the i'd say it at uh if you did sort of the the lowest
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estimate would be probably 20 um and uh and this and this is a a bunch of uh quite smart outside firms have done analysis of twitter and uh looked at the the the daily daily users and their conclusion is also about is about 20 but that's a lower bound it's not an upper bound if you look at say um the most liked tweets on twitter um so i i have the uh the honor of having the most liked tweet of any living human um this is thank you everyone for liking my tweet including you some of the bots out there but that tweet is less than 5 million likes it's like 4.
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7 or something like that and that that that was the where i tweeted about um that next time buying coca-cola to put the cocaine back in it's definitely it's clearly something that the public really wants and you know uh coca-cola corporation should really think about going back to their roots um coca-cola um i mean this this i guess is the reason why our grandparents could sort of walk 20 miles in the snow because they had coca-cola with cocaine this is a real reason so um anyway that was that's that is literally the most popular tweet um of any of any living human um and but twitter says that the daily monet the sort of monetizable daily act of uses is 217 million um so why would it be that the most popular tweet ever basically is only you know two two
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and a half percent of the entire user base this this seems a very very low number um and um and the most popular tweets generally are clustered around that sort of four million uh like level so it's like sort of caller like basically two percent or that or less than two percent of of the uh daily active users and and technically monetizable daily active users is how twitter refers to it so it just seems how is this possible um surely there's something that maybe you know ten percent of people would like not merely two percent well actually you know if you think about it elon um there's a corollary on youtube what do what's the total user base of youtube and what have the most popular videos gotten there yes and i think there's a billion or two maybe a
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billion people using youtube and those the most popular videos have tens of billions of views that might be instructive exactly that ratio makes a lot more sense um so something doesn't add up here um and my concern is isn't it's not that is it like you know is it five or or seven or eight percent but is it potentially eighty percent or ninety percent bots yeah um you know uh is it i mean i i certainly know there's some real people on twitter but uh but what's if is it an order of magnitude is it is it 50 instead of five and that's obviously an incredibly material number um especially since twitter uh relies uh primarily on brand advertising as opposed to specific click-through advertising where you make a purchase if you if you make a purchase it it
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doesn't really matter that much but for brand advertising which is really just awareness advertising it matters if real humans are seeing that or not yeah and and so i guess stepping back for a second people are curious why you want to buy twitter why is this so important to you and then i guess what are the chances you think the deal gets done at this point so a two-parter why is it so important to me i mean some of this i've articulated before but i think there's a need for a a public town square digital town square that uh where people can debate uh issues of all kinds um including the most substantive issues and in order for for that to be the case you have to have something that is as broadly inclusive as possible that has as much of the the people
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on the platform as possible uh where it's uh it feels uh balanced from a political standpoint uh it's not biased one way or the other um and where the system is transparent this is why i think it's important to put the algorithm on on github and actually allow the public to see it and critique it and improve it and if there are any manual changes uh sort of shadow banning as it's called or increasing or decreasing the prominence of a tweet that's done manually that that should be noted uh so you know what has happened and it's not just uh you know you're just where it is right now we don't know what the heck is going on why is one tweet doing well why isn't that sweet not is it the algorithm did someone manually intervene uh why are some accounts banned
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uh with no recourse apparently um and um you know the the reality is uh that twitter at this point you know has uh a very far-left bias um and i would class myself as a moderate and you know neither the republican nor nor democrat um and in fact uh i have voted vote overwhelmingly for democrats uh historically overwhelmingly like i'm not sure i might never have voted for a republican just to be clear right now now this election i would well david you okay how are you gonna die he keep going keep going he's fine he's fine we're gonna resuscitate him we're gonna resuscitate david sacks i mean let me ask you a person the point i'm trying to make is that this is not some sort of attempt to uh you know it's not some right wing takeover uh as as say people
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in life may fear uh but rather a moderate wing takeover um and an attempt to uh ensure that that people of of all uh you know political uh beliefs feel welcome on on a digital town square that and they can express uh their their beliefs uh without fear of being banned or shadow banned um and and and that we we obviously need to get rid of the bots uh and and scams and trials and people that are operating uh huge bot armies in an attempt to uh unduly influence the the public opinion so this is what i think it's very important that we have that like the the some of the smartest people in history have have thought about it and said like free speech is important for a for a healthy democracy it is important and free speech only matters like say when does
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prestige matter most it's when someone when it's someone you don't like saying something you don't like uh that's when it actually matters um so um you know obviously and and and it's pretty annoying when someone you don't like says something you don't like that's that's that's bad but it's actually a good sign of uh that that you have free speech um so i mean i get trashed by the media all the time it's fine i don't care uh go do do it twice as much i couldn't care less um but it's indicative of the fact that even though um i you know i have like a lot of resources i do not actually have the ability to stop the media from trashing me and that's actually a good thing yeah i i have to ask um with regard to this current administration i know how hard you
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work uh on the car company and then biden you know you've been a lifelong democrat you've donated to obama and to everybody probably never voted republican and yet and the same is true for joe rogan joe rogan is you know a bernie sanders supporter and that the democratic party has been openly hostile to joe rogan and biden can't even say the word tesla or invite you to the white house when they do an eevee summit i'm curious just on a very personal basis what does it feel like to have that experience where the party you supported is won't even say the name of your company or invite you there they should be celebrating the work you're doing yeah i mean it it definitely feels like this is not right like this is [Music] the the issue here is that there's
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just an uh this the democrat party is overly overly controlled by the unions and by the trial lawyers particularly the class action uh lawyers um and generally if you if you'll see something that doesn't that is not in the interest of the of the people um on the on the democrat side it's going to come because of the unions uh which is just another form of monopoly and the uh the trial lawyers uh that that's where actions will be happening from democrats side they're not in the interests of the people and then um to be fair on the republican side uh there's this if you say like where is something like not not ideal happening it's because of corporate evil um and uh religious zealotry um but that's generally where the bad things will be coming from on the
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republican side um that are not representative of the people so um in the case of biden he is simply too too much uh captured by the unions um which was not the case with obama um so in the case of obama you could have you know he was sort of quite reasonable um and i think he took more of a view of that you know obviously take the concerns of the unions into account but uh there are there are bigger issues at stake and and unfortunately biden does not do that you'll have a tesla question i read today it's incredible there was a bloomberg article that said the following so the setup is this it said since you went public tesla's up 22 000 uh 11 quarters of prof sequential profitability so hitting on all cylinders but the a public analyst we had to look
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at it [Laughter] but analysts uh when they put out their projections okay it's it's one of the most enormous bands for any company in america the the price targets for tesla despite all of this success some have it at 200 some have it at 1600 it's all over the place you tweeted a couple months ago tesla's not a company it's like six companies inside of a company like you've had yeah maybe more can you just explain to people all these companies inside this super company just so folks have a sense of what had to be done to get here okay i mean this question requires thought and i'll probably be leaving out quite a few things but if you look and say what what does a typical uh car company do uh what what they do is they they um assemble vehicles um and they
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send them to dealers and they manage the supply chain uh the they they might make the engine uh or typically we'll make the engine but most of the parts are made by suppliers and a lot of the actual technology development is done by suppliers and most most of the vehicle software is done by suppliers so the actual amount of uh real work done by car companies that what you think of sort of like a gmo ford is not actually that much um and but like so they don't do they don't do uh sales they don't do service um they uh so so in the case of tesla for example we we do we we do our own sales and service we don't have dealerships um then uh tesla also has by far the biggest network of superchargers sort of the electric equivalent of gas stations so we built
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an entire global supercharger network which is still the most advanced and by far the best uh way to charge your car when traveling long distance or if you live in a city um and uh and don't have the ability to charge your car there's a street parking or an apartment so the whole supercharged network we developed the supercharged network we deployed it i think we have i don't know 15 000 supercharges globally um you can travel anywhere in america right now with uh the tesla supercharger network um then uh in terms of vertical integration uh we uh we make the the battery pack uh the the power electronics the drive unit um we uh we actually make we're more integrated in in the parts we actually make so much of the car uh internally uh we're vertically integrated
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um not necessarily because we think that there's some religious reason to be a product integrator but because uh the pace that we needed to move was just much faster than the supply chain could move and to the degree that you inherit the legacy supply chain and hurt the legacy constraints including their speed uh cost and uh and technology and then tesla is as much a software company as it is a hardware company so the software that runs in tesla operates the car operates the screen uh does the charging uh all of that stuff is developed by tesla and um so we have sort of a car a tesla os in the car when you and then very importantly uh tesla has built uh an uh an autopilot ai team from scratch uh that is the best real world ai team on earth and if anyone
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else has got a better one i'd like to see it demonstrated in a car um the full self-driving beta at this point can very often take you with zero interventions across the bay area from san jose to marin so through complex traffic it's really quite sophisticated um and i invite anyone to to join the beta or or look at the videos of those who are in the beta we've got like 100 000 people in the beta so it's not tiny and we'll be expanding that to i know probably a million people or a million i don't know on that order by the end of the year so um it's um we also we also built a chip team to because there wasn't it wasn't hardware to that we could run the freaking uh ai on uh we couldn't just uh fill the trunk with a whole bunch of gpus um and and you know
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they would would have taken a trunk full of gpus that would have been very expensive and take massive amount of power and cooling uh just to be able to do what the tesla designed uh full self-driving computer can do so and we started a chip team from scratch designed it it was the best in the world and still is the best in the world several years later um and we also then developed we were designing a dojo supercomputer to be able to process the all the video that's coming in from billions miles of data because just sort of like the way that it's critical to compete with google because they have so much data and they have all these people doing searches all the time and humanity is training it but the same is true of tesla you really need billions of
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miles ultimately tens of billions of miles of training data combined with a sort of a vast training computer and then uh optimize uh inference hardware in the car and stay the ai and training and specialized software across the board to be able to achieve a full self-driving solution i uh when when he opened tesla gigafactory remember this 67 years ago i'll just tell the audience a story quickly elon he puts a slide up there and he says guys we're not actually building a factory we're building a machine that makes machines and he puts the layout of the factory and it looks like a chip and it was basically like how you would actually lay out a microchip if you were or you know you were like a layout engineer it was the craziest thing i'd ever seen i was
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like that was when i first got it yeah you know you walk in tend and you see what's happening and you have an insurance company now you're doing insurance for tesla owners and an uber competitor right and eventually a robo taxi uber competitor alright um yeah i mean insurance is like quite significant now are you okay i'm okay okay okay because the the car insurance thing is a bigger deal it may seem a lot of people are paying um you know 30 40 as much as their lease payment for the car in in car insurance um so the car insurance industry is incredibly inefficient because they they're just uh first of all you got like so many um sort of middle entities you've got from the insurance agent all the way to the final sort of reinsurer there's like a half dozen
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companies each taking a cut um and then uh the it's all very statistical so that this um even if you're a very good driver like you could be like you know 20 years old and a great driver but they they're it's all statistical so you can't get either can't get insurance or it's extremely expensive um so what tesla allows for real-time insurance based on your how you actually drive the car um you can actually if you drive the car in a safer way you actually have lower insurance so ours is is insurance is based on how you actually drive not how you know historically people that you know fit your whatever demographic have drive it's and and then you can close the loop around your uh insurance rate by simply driving better and looking at your score and and
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and lowering your insurance in real time and people do it actually promotes safer driving i actually have had this experience because in my household two people drive my car and one of them has a 93 score and the other one does not they have like a 60 score and you may have met this other person but i've been trying to work with her on the aggressive turns and stops in advance of our insurance bill uh which we're hoping will go down at some point um you didn't oh the one question are is this twitter deal going to get close do you think are the chances here well i mean it really depends on a lot of factors here um i'm still waiting for uh some sort of a logical explanation for the number of sort of fake or spam accounts on twitter and twitter is is refusing
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to tell us so you know this just seems like a strange thing um wait sorry is are they refusing to tell you or you don't think they really know i mean there's a good chance they may just have no idea they claim that they do know yeah and they claim that they've got this complex methodology that only they can understand um [Laughter] but the guy who landed two rockets simultaneously you stir this cauldron and then you throw the knuckle boom and um it comes to you in a dream i don't know um but but there should be some uh you know objective way to assert the uh thing because this is a this is a material public state threshold issue yeah it it you know it's it's a you know it's a material adverse uh misstatement uh you know if if they in fact uh have been
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um vociferously claiming less than five percent of faker spam accounts but in fact it is four or five times that number or perhaps 10 times that number this is a big deal um it's not this it seems like if you said okay um i'm gonna i agree to buy your house you say the house has less than five percent termites that's that's an acceptable number but if it turns out it is 90 percent termites that's uh not okay you know it's not the same house um made most your house will disappear because it's mostly made in two months um so it you know that that would obviously just not be appropriate so in in making the twitter offer i was obviously reliant upon the the truth and accuracy of their public filings and if those those filings are not accurate it's simply
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not that's that it's it's not you you can't pay the same price for something that is much worse than they claimed and you know they say elon life's a negotiation so at a different price it might be a totally viable deal correct i mean that i mean it's not out of the question um okay but i really would you know this is you know the more the more questions i ask the more i the more my concerns uh grow um so you know at the end of the day acquiring it has to be fixable um and and fixable you know with reason reasonable time frame and without revenues collapsing along the way and all that sort of stuff um and so you know i really need to see how these things have been calculated and it it can't be some deep mystery that is like more complex than the human
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soul or something like that um it's got to be you know i think we can apply the scientific method to this and try to figure out what's really going on and um twitter's revenue is is primarily dependent i think 70 or some that order on brand advertising as opposed to specific purchase advertising this is a big deal because brand advertising is not there's not a there's not a purchase that results from that so it's basically you know how much mind share or like basically if you're a big company how how often do they hear your name um it's as opposed to something that where you can directly measure the outcome um so that that means that they're somewhat going on faith um and if that faith is undermined or or reduced because of the reality of the situation
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coming to the fore then that the tesla's revenue twitter starts with the t um the quarter's revenue uh will be uh significantly impaired and that's a major problem elon did you have a chance to ask these questions during your negotiation uh the i like i said i was reliant upon their public filings so to the degree that that they're probably public and this is normal for a public company if you you know if if you make a formal filing um that that that is what investors are lying up relying on whether they are making an acquisition offer or simply buying some shares so this this the accuracy of these filings is important whether you're buying one share or the whole company and so if these filings are inaccurate or if they're sort of potentially blatant
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it's a big deal you know do you have a sense of why this has been such a persistent problem for twitter do they not have the technical capabilities to solve the the bot problem or is it more of like just a they've underprioritized the issue or been unwilling to because potentially their implications for uh ad revenue i i i i don't know it's sort of speculative at this point so the you know the the uh the worst interpretation would be that they don't want to look too closely at the thing because they might not like the answer that would be the worst interpretation um the bet i'm not sure what the best interpretation is but the least bad interpretation would be maybe they thought it was this way but they're the way they were doing it was wrong and they
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didn't realize they were mistaken and simply weren't paying enough attention um it does seem as though it should be a lot easier to get rid of the bots and and spam and trolls then uh like this is not some we're not trying to split the atom here you know uh we're not trying to get to the moon okay we're just trying to uh limit the amount of obviously scammy accounts if it's if it's if it's like your bitcoin giveaway um you know probably it's f it's a spammer you know like it does maybe you know wait you're not giving away a hundred bitcoin i just sent you danny if if if you send me two bitcoin i'll send you one back right that's my what if i send you 20.
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actually um i thought one of the interesting things that came up in your product roadmap um or i guess this was released and people covered it was the um possibility of twitter becoming kind of a super app with payments included um maybe perhaps even doge or something this seems to me uh based on your work with with david a paypal like a pretty brilliant idea what's what's the vision there in terms of if you were able to buy it you know perhaps at the right price um what would it look like if you know i could add jason to at elon musk you know 10 bucks or something if you know we were splitting a check or something sure well for those that have used wechat i think that's wechat's actually a good model um if you're in china it's basically you kind of live
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on wechat it does everything um it's sort of like twitter plus paypal plus a whole bunch of other things and we'll roll into one with actually a great interface and it's really an excellent app and we don't have anything like that um outside of china so uh i think such such an app um would be really uh useful um and it just like the utility of it uh of of sort of a a spam free thing where you could you can make comments you can post videos you can uh you know i think it's important for content creators to have a revenue share um now now this this does not need to be done on twitter it could be done from something that's created from scratch so it could be something new um so really but but i think this thing needs to exist whether it is uh converting
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twitter to uh be the sort of like kind of all-encompassing app that that like said everything from digital town square where important ideas are debated uh you know maximally trusted and inclusive and at a point where you sort of have a high trust situation than than payments uh uh whether it's uh crypto or fiat uh can make a lot of sense just what you just want something that's incredibly useful and that people love using um so that but it it's it's either convert twitter to that or start something new those are the two but it does need to happen somehow well it's interesting you bring that up because the price of twitter is pretty high and you've built a couple of companies and some engineers like to come work for you and you've now gone through the
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intellectual exercise of studying all this um if you're looking at the two choices now fixing twitter given all these problems and maybe just starting your own version which one are you leaning towards because it i have watched you build a couple of companies and the products have turned out pretty good so is it easier for someone like you to just start from scratch i mean i mean it's certainly the my my default inclination is to start things from scratch uh i mean i'm not really i don't buy things like there's still this sort of you know uh um yeah like like spacex was started from scratch you know in the case of of tesla uh you know it was like five people it was still this guy everhart who's the worst guy i've ever worked with who tries to claim like
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soul credit essentially for equating tesla if he's so damn great why didn't he just go you know create another car company when he was fired um but anyway um so well i mean that's a pretty good story i mean yeah i remember jesus i mean no but i i remember having this conversation with you we were having a conversation about the roadster i think i can tell the story i said how's it going pal and you said well i got one problem um it turns out the roadster parts and putting it together cost 190 000.
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yeah and i said i gave you 150 for number 16.
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so if you make 2000 of these you're gonna lose 80 million dollars and you're like yeah or double that i mean they basically the parts of the car cost more than they were selling it for when you were starting to get involved that's it it was difficult no no i i got involved well before before that yes when twitter when tesla was was nothing but a piece of paper let me be crystal clear [ __ ] clear no they didn't bring me in either [Music] i was gonna start i was gonna start an ed company with jv struggle and based on the the ac propulsion t0 and when i when i asked ac propulsion if it was okay to do that they said well there's also some others who want to create an ev company but have not created one yet yes would you like to join forces with them and
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i said okay well we'll do that that was a huge mistake jb and i should have just started the car company ourselves instead uh we uh teamed up with everhard topping and right um big mistake uh the the the actual moral error here was me trying to have my cake and eat it too which is like uh i just want to work on the technology and the product and have someone else be the ceo and and sort of run the business operations because i just like working on technology and product and design and um and and also i was like doing spacex uh you know at the time in our rockets were blowing up so it seemed like uh okay this is like i always wanted to an electric car company this is how i can have my cake and eat a two that was a huge mistake and fundamentally a moral
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error um and uh so so uh in the end i had to freaking be ceo and i didn't want to be basically um so but it's either that or a company's gonna die so uh so we started with with really just nothing and uh the uh you know the t0 prototype from ac propulsion not not if that's that's the precursor to tesla um clear once again uh when uh we created tesla i when i when i joined there were no no employees there was no intellectual property there was no prototype there was no and nothing yeah we crystal [ __ ] clear and it almost bankrupted you i mean you that sent you to the cliff of india i mean that was yes we were on the ragged edge of bankruptcy so many times it was ridiculous um so um and what 2008 was one of the worst years where basically the you know
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gm and ford just a gm jammer ford almost went bankrupt and um you know trying to raise money for a startup electric car company in 2008 while gm's going bankrupt was uh difficult to say the least um you know people were angry that i even asked them uh they're like [ __ ] you and hang up so the only way that that that tesla actually made it through 2008 was uh a subset of the existing investors um which includes like people like antonio gracias and uh you know um steve jobson and and a few other key people our aaron price uh who who i've uh hold a debt of gratitude to the state um and and i i put in all the money i had left and they said everything literally everything um uh i didn't have a house uh so uh this is my actually so i've had the house so i
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was like staying actually in jeff skull's bedroom spare bedroom um and uh and but they were the the uh the subset of the investors would say okay i put in they're putting as much as i put in so i put in everything um and and then we closed that round 6 p.
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m uh christmas eve 2008 it was last hour of the last day that was possible because after that people were like kept breaking for the holidays and we were to bounce payroll two days after christmas it was uh pretty that's doorstop i mean it was an incredible moment in time and and people also forget at the time that the first two rockets spacex sent up uh didn't exactly make it to orbit like one of those yeah the first three and i remember having dinner with you at that time and i asked you hey how's it going i heard glocker says you got four weeks of payroll left and you said that's not true and i said thank god and you said we have two [Music] i said no i mean both spacex and tesla in 2008 if we'd simply paid our suppliers on time we would have gone
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bankrupt immediately hey tell us tell us actually uh it was it was a pretty crazy moment because i also remember asking you that we were having dinner at boa and i said well certainly it's got to be some good news and you took out your blackberry to date the conversation i don't remember it and you said don't tell anybody jacob is it right no problem and you showed me the clay version of the model s yeah the most beautiful car i'd ever seen and i said oh my god it's stunning how much is it gonna cost you said i think i can make it for fifty thousand i remember it was yesterday i said if you make that car for fifty thousand you'll change the [ __ ] world and you did it you know it was a little more than fifty thousand but uh how's your let's ask about
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spacex okay well that's what's basically but i want to ask one more personal question has life gotten easier for you as these companies have hit scale or has the complexity made life even more challenging because those early days it was just fighting to survive nobody knew who you were you were anonymous and it was really just about the work and now let's face it you're the world's most famous guy and everybody's watching everything you do but these companies are also very big so what's life like for you today are you enjoying what you're doing every day um well i mean it's it's somewhat of a roller coaster so there are like good days and bad days um and there's there also crisis issues um and you know like sort of you know knock on wood like we're not
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like uh facing you know death in the face like like it's it's definitely like quite stressful when like you know death is like trying to eat your face off and like the foam is like you know just getting it and like right there you know you know that's it's pretty stressful in that situation um so like right you know both spacex and tesla have um you know significant cash reserves so like you know it's like we're sharing death in the face we could sort of see it over in the horizon you know so i don't want to get complacent or entitled because it um but but if it's not like just sort of foaming at the mouth and actually trying to eat your face off on a daily basis that's that's certainly we've moved on from that point um and hopefully never never return
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um but but there are a lot of issues that need to be it's just like the if you're a ceo of a company the chore level is high and if you don't do your chores then the company goes to hell and i hate doing doing chores frankly so uh who does uh so that's the real like there's a whole bunch of sort of uh you know personnel issues and legal issues and and and things that i i i don't find enjoyable to work on but if i don't work on them the company suffers so it's more like just the sheer volume of work is insane that's the uh and then and then you know go do some go add to it with you know twitter or something like that yeah i mean honestly i'm an extra processor yeah yeah i mean i i have a habit of biting off more than i can chew and then just sitting there
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with like chipmunk cheeks alice tell us a little bit about where we are at spacex like how you fund the ability to go to mars but then also commercially still build um a conventional space business domestically i think this russia thing was probably really good for spacex if you want to just tell us a little bit about that sure um well i mean the goal of spacex is to develop the technology that enables life to become multi-planetary um and uh and make humanity a space sparring civilization which i think is a very exciting inspiring thing and it's like some one of those things where you can that i think just makes kids like be excited about the future and we need things that are inspiring and exciting and make the future seem like it's going to be better
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than the past life can't just be about solving one miserable problem after another it's got to be like like what's what's inspiring and exciting and i think that a future where we are space-bank civilization is is one that we can all get excited about um and and we can go out there and find out what what's what's out there in the universe and what's the meaning of life and you know where are the aliens and hopefully they're friendly and that kind of um so uh you know it's interesting i do get asked about the aliens question a lot and i've i've not seen any evidence of aliens um and i'll i'll be the first to you know tweet about it or whatever if i found it if i see something i mean you'll tell us if you find him i will tell you i will definitely tell
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you if there's aliens um and um you know uh i think it'd be quite helpful for you know like like if if we found aliens like probably spacex would get a ton more revenue because people like oh man aliens we're gonna upgrade on space technology pronto because what if you're unfriendly you know um it's like you know uh the idea of that is the idea that you build um basically the ability to do orbital cargo take all those profits launch starlink take all those profits and move it all into building something that can get to mars is that the kind of rough plan pretty much it's if it was like a three step a three slide power point it would be pretty much as you described which is um develop rockets that are that are capable of of taking uh satellites to orbit
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and uh crew to the space station um you know basically servicing government commercial space launch needs um and then uh uh build a global communication system in space uh that obviously it does a lot of good for earth but by providing uh internet connect internet connectivity to the least served because a satellite system is really great for remote locations um and you know countryside or or remote islands or or places where someone's trying to cut off their internet as a prelude to a war we take that system like in star wars yeah yeah so it's like you know so it can be pretty pretty helpful like i think like a song like basically i think is a a sort of forceful grid on its own right um by providing uh connectivity to the the least served where they've
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got either no connection or a a very expensive or poor connection uh you know um the like we're like we're connecting a lot of schools remote schools in brazil right now i'm actually kind of going to be headed there uh to sort of kick things off but they've got a lot of schools that have no connectivity at all and in a modern age uh how do you learn with no connectivity i mean you get i guess old textbooks and stuff but it's really you're at a huge disadvantage if you have no digital connectivity um so i think there's just a lot of good that starling can do in it just by by itself but but then the the revenue generated from starlink is what can enable the uh of a permanently uh crude base on the moon which would be the next you know next step from apollo
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which is like let's just not go there for a few hours and and then head back let's have a opponent at the occupied science station on the moon um and we could also build um some pretty epic uh telescopes uh on the moon uh that uh would enable us to learn more about the nature of the universe and figure out what's going on and maybe detect those aliens um do you do you um do you think that there's enough profit in those businesses to fund all this or do you need wall street and other investors to come share the load with you is kind of going to mars a partnership with the government does it need to partner with governments to get there um well i think technically it does not need to partner with governments um but of course uh government support would
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be helpful um so i mean it's going to be very expensive to build a self-sustaining city on mars like in order for us to become multi-planetary in a way that's meaningful um the the key threshold is at which point does the city become self-sustaining such that if the ships from earth stopped coming for any reason and it could be any reason could be world war iii or it could be just you know civilization subsided and um and and just gradually got decrepit or something but but if the ship's stuff coming the three supply ships from earth stop coming to mars for any reason does the city still survive and that's like really a large base of resources that are that that are needed uh on mars you can't be missing any one critical ingredient uh the so and you can
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think of this like there are these various great filters um you know that that perhaps stop civilizations and one of the great filters is will we become a multi-planet species or not will humanity be one of those species that passes the great filter of going beyond one planet and being a multi-planet species and this is certainly something we'll have to do at some point because this the sun is expanding and will eventually boil the oceans and destroy your life on earth so if you care about life on earth you should really care about life becoming multi-planetary and ultimately multi-stellar because otherwise you're basically saying you're signing the sort of death warrant for all life as we know it it's inevitable um and then there's also the the various
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things that kill the you know the dinosaurs and and i mean you look at the fossil record they've been five major extinctions uh that are sort of on the order of eighty nine eighty to ninety percent of all creatures on earth dying um for a wide range of reasons um but uh and then humans can also you know with us the world war three danger um that were that that other creatures didn't have where we could do ourselves in um by sort of misusing advanced technology and and sort of just you know having some radioactive hellhole that's all that's left after world war three so um you know you want you could even characterize it potentially as which will come first world war three or uh life becoming multi-planetary on mars um yeah i'm sorry i was gonna shift
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but um you know when you think about the importance of going to mars versus solving critical energy and climate change problems here on earth obviously the effort with tesla is related to sustainable energy and i think going back to like probably the 1950s there were engineering designs around plasma fusion or fusion-based systems that have evolved to these plasma systems to these tokamak systems and every year every decade it's like hey next decade we're going to have it what's your point of view on where plasma fusion systems are are we going to have fusion energy this century this decade and does it create limitless energy where the electricity production goes up by ten thousand fold and the price of electricity drops by ten thousand fold and then
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what does that world on earth look like if that happens so i guess question is like is that technology real when does it happen and what happens to the world here when and if that happens i'll answer that question but then i'll let me sort of point out what the what the actual issue is uh if the question is like uh is it possible to solve uh fusion energy uh 100 yes definitely definitely definitely definitely is for sure um so the the and and and really just using a takamak style which is like it basically a doughnut ring with uh uh with electromagnets that control the the plasma uh the the way to solve that is simply scale up the tokamak uh fusion is uh very much a scale based thing you want to minimize your surface volume ratio so as you scale up a
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tokamak you reduce your surface volume ratio which means like the the the volume you have relative to this the surface uh you you now have much more uh like you can basically have a hot zone in the center that's relatively far away from the walls and and more of a hot zone um so the the so it's not in my mind a question as to whether which fusion can work but there is a question as to whether it is economically viable um and and whether it is competitive with uh with with alternatives i think that the economic viability of fusion is a much bigger question and i i think the answer probably is that a fusion earth fusion is not competitive economically i think that is that is uh i would say it's probably not competitive economically by an order of magnitude
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where does it break is it a materials breakdown or where does it break down economically well so so you can't just um use uh normal hydrogen you know you you need to use like deuterium and tritium like unusual forms of hydrogen helium-3 uh you know that there are um there are some uh some uh other types of fusion that could be used uh but um these are just not they're not like there's not a lot of this raw material it's quite difficult to get the raw material so first you have to get the raw material uh that's that's expensive raw material um and then um it's not just about generating the the energy you've got to um turn that energy into usable electricity you can't just have a hot thing okay so the hot thing has to translate to usable electricity so
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i think you got you've got a cost of a fuel issue which is very significant uh you've got you've got a whole bunch of knockdowns from when you generate the heat to when you actually convert that into electricity you've got some very difficult maintenance issues with with the effusion reactor [Music] so uh and that should be then compared to alternatives uh the the sustainable energy alternatives that i think uh are overwhelmingly more competitive are [Music] solar energy wind geothermal hydro uh some tidal and energy but it's really primarily uh solar uh and and wind um now and you can really say like what why bother creating a fusion on earth when we have a gigantic fusion reactor in the sky that just works with zero maintenance and it shows up every
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day right it's pretty consistent yeah but elon can we scale to 1000 x or 100 x our electricity production here using solar and other renewable sources yes so the the amount of uh surface area you need to power the united states is remarkably tiny um so you need like basically roughly a hundred miles by a hundred miles of territory and it obviously doesn't need to be in one place uh in the united states to power the united states it's like a little corner of texas or utah the entire country um and and then if you if you you could you could basically power uh you you probably 10x the just with solar alone um without displacing uh anyone's home uh power an economy ten times the size of the united states in the united states on land what when energy prices
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if you say if you extend that to water because earth is 70 percent water yeah i mean you could you could say okay now we could probably have a civilization that is a hundred times as energy intensive as we currently have it and so what does that look like with the last part of my question which is a world where energy costs are saying it's a hundred times cheaper than they are today and we have a hundred times more energy production capacity what what changes about civilization what do we do differently and what do we see change most kind of dramatically well currently we're not because of of just generally low birth rates almost worldwide civilization is not headed to have a population that is an order of magnitude greater than where where we're kind
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of we're currently headed towards a population decline uh and this is almost everywhere in the world um so you know it basically seems as as though as soon as you have like urbanization um and and and education beyond a certain level and income being on a certain level birth rates plummet um and so as countries get get wealthier their birth rates plummet it's it's somewhat counterintuitive because people will say like well it's too expensive to have a baby nope the the wealthier they are are the fewer kids you have um the more educated you are the fewer kids you have so um it's it's a it's it's it's the inverse um so so i'm not sure who to use all that energy um unless there's a significant change in the growth rate um or we have a very robot oriented
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economy so that's also possible so if we've got a lot of um you know four wheeled robots informed cars and uh androids humanoid robots then you could certainly see that there'd be perhaps a need for an order of magnitude more energy but it's not coming from the humans unless something major changes on the on the human uh birth rate uh level uh this by the way is i think the biggest single threat to civilization uh right now is the why why do you think societally people just make those decisions when they become more affluent is it that they just become more selfish or there's more things for them to do and they have more money to spend on themselves and they say you know what i don't want to have a large family i want to you know go to coachella yeah
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well there is this like weird like mind viruses thing where some people are think like having fewer kids is is like better for the environment yeah that's crazy total nonsense the environment is going to be fine they're going to be fine even if we if we doubled the size of the humans um this is and i know a lot about environmental stuff so um you know uh you that we can't have civilization just dwindle into nothing um and you know japan's leading indicator here like the japan's population declined by 600 000 people last year that lowest birth rate in history uh it's you know it's pretty bad um so we i don't know we and i think so so this one element of this is it's a lot of people just think that having kids is somehow bad for the environment i want to
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be clear it's not it's essential for me for maintaining civilization that would at least maintain our numbers we don't necessarily need to grow dramatically but at least let's not uh you know gradually dwindle away and until uh civilization ends with us all in adult diapers and and in a whimper like we don't want a civilization to end in an adult diapers with a whimper that would kind of suck yeah lee well i mean and you and i have had this conversation i mean in japan i had two people tell me when i was there like i think it's immoral to bring humans into the world i mean people have gotten very sad about the future it's kind of crazy it's great life's awesome yes no this there's literally i've heard many times how like how can i bring a child into this
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terrible world i'm like have you read history because let me tell you it was way worse back then okay yeah now it's a good time it's a good time hey you know listen i i know you're super busy but i want to ask you about the move to texas because i've been thinking about it uh austin california i don't know some senator told you to go [ __ ] yourself and like you know like we don't know he's been a couple senators said that actually yeah it seems to be turning into a bit of a trend um but how has building the tesla gigafactory which i got to see in austin a couple weeks ago and it was one of the most inspiring things i've ever seen i mean i don't know how many months it took to build there but how long did it take to build that dreadnought and then what
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would have taken to build that in california california under gavin newsom so we built the the gigatexas which is the biggest factor in north america i think possibly the biggest factor in the world um and it's three times the size of the pentagon to give you a sense of scale okay this is freaking big it's like it's weird it's like so big it's weird like you just like i was trying to find you in it and i was trying to drive around and it took me about 45 minutes to find you yeah like no you have to like call you can't like find someone in the world you have to call them on their cell phone and say where are you you know um so i mean the building is like uh just under a mile long and we're actually gonna extend it it will be like literally a mile long
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um and about a quarter mile wide uh and it's uh 80 feet tall so it's just uh ridiculously big um and when you think about like for manufacturing situation like what what what are the two the two things that really define manufacturing competitiveness are economies of scale and technology and so if you got an ace on economy like if you sort of maximize your ace level on technology and you maximize your ace level on scale this is obviously going to be the most competitive situation and that's why they're so freaking giant um and the the gigatexas will go all the way from raw materials like like basically rail cars of cell raw materials coming in and then forming the the battery cell then the battery pack uh building the the motor uh casting we also have
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introduced a major innovation which is to cast the entire front third and rear third of the car and as a single piece um i got this idea from toys actually because i was like how do they make toys those are cheap they just cast them i was like well can you build a casting machine that big and they're like well no one ever has i'm like is it are we breaking physics like no well let's just ask them and there were six major casting machine suppliers in the world and five of them said no and the six said maybe i'm like i'll take that as a yes um well i mean this you wanted to do this for the model 3 but it was just too soon huh and and now it's almost there yeah actually this this partly comes from the model 3 which is actually a fantastic car in many ways
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but we were rightly criticized for an inefficient design uh with for the front and rear body um like sandy monroe who i think is really has excellent from an engineering standpoint and and really a very fair critic he pistol wept us for um the design of the the battery and piece by piece told you why you suck yeah and then he did the why and told you why you were awesome he took it apart and tells us exactly why he's why we sucked and he was correct um and then and i was like well that's pretty embarrassing so uh no there he was complimentary of other parts of the car but not the body design and uh and so it's like okay we're gonna go from like you know uh the it's just an incredibly difficult party to make it's made out of like 120 different pieces with
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dissimilar metals that are joined and you've got galvanic corrosion challenges it's very difficult to make um to a single piece casting that's one piece so like 120 pieces went down to like one so um it's it's it's a it's a huge and the the like the model y body shop especially the new one where we cast both the front and rear is 60 smaller than the model 3 body shop so it's you know gigantic it's quite this there's a lot of innovations of tesla besides the stuff that is is obvious yeah um so anyway so yeah the the but if and and really you know to to be fair to gavin newsom like uh you know if you if you had a gun to gavin's head okay um and said we need to build start building this factory in california right now he couldn't do it because there are
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so many uh regulatory agencies um and so many uh litigators in california that want to stop you from doing anything that even if you're the governor of the of the state you cannot get it done um so something's got to be done to to to to you know because california used to be the land of opportunity and it's a beautiful state and i love i loved living there and i still spend a lot of time in california even though every time i go there i get every literally every day i go there i get the jesus taxes big tax bill by day yeah like the sheer cost per day of me going and working in california days boggles the mind and but i still do it you know um but but it the california's gone from a land of opportunity to to the land of of of sort of taxes uh over regulation
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and litigation and this is not a good situation and really there's got to be like a serious cleaning out of the pipes in california how many months was it to get the giga austin done took a year and a half two years yeah 18 18 months to build something three times the size of the pentagon incredible and you just basically the answer to how many months it would take in california is infinity we would still be working on the permits yeah elon this this begs a good question which is like i'm ready graduating and you just keep signing paperwork but we have one more form for you what's a better model yes what's a better model for government so you know like all governments tend to increase in complexity dictatorship capacity is the dictatorship the right model
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and um you know like like how do we solve this let's say you go to mars or let's say you have to fix california is california permanently broken is there a way to fix it or like how do you set up a better model so that you don't end up having this this kind of special interest complexity situation that eventually kills the uh population i mean i think ultimately with california the people of california just have to get fed up and and demand change um that's the thing that really has to happen um and and there's there's gotta be an above zero percent chance of the of the republicans winning in california if if if if it's just the democrats every time you've got to be you know and this is this is like occasionally uh it the thing is that right right now
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uh and plus the level of level of gerrymandering uh which is basically just treating the people like sheep uh and and it's terrible um that's gone on in california is outrageous so california uh the dems have a super majority in um the house and senate in california and the governor and everything and so how responsive is any political party going to be to the people if they are guaranteed to win it's a one-party state and so i'm not saying that you know go sort of elect the republicans every time but if it's never you're you're just making california a one-party state they will no longer be responsible responses to people and will only be responsive to those that funded their political campaigns clip elon saying that 30 seconds on tv over and over go
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ahead sex yeah so elon shifting gears to the economy um you know we saw this uh surprise report of negative 1.
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4 gdp growth in q1 uh interest rates been rising that increased the cost of the consumer of getting loans things like that we've had a stock market correction really a crash in a lot of growth stocks software stocks um what from where you sit and the data that you see uh where do you think the economy is is headed right now do you think we're in a recession or is it just a risk how do you how do you assess our current economic situation well predicting economic record economics is always difficult um and and want to assign probabilities to these things um but ironically i did last year people asked me what i think about the economy i said well i think we might enter a recession in approximately uh uh spring of 2020 of 2022.
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called it nailed it um yeah um so uh now the thing is that recessions are not necessarily a bad thing uh they they you know um what i i've now been through a few of them and what has happened is if you have um a boom that goes on for too long you get misallocation of capital uh it starts raining money on fools basically it's like any any dumb thing gets money and i'm sure you've seen a few of those um so at first at some point it gets just out of control and you just have a misallocation of of human capital uh where people are doing things that are silly and not useful to their fellow human beings um and and then those companies there needs to be sort of an economic enema if you will um to have everyone sort of shift uncomfortably in their seats [Music]
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um sorry it's just like visualizing it the economic enemy i mean listen it's got alliteration um so this too shall pass eventually the economic enemy does its job it clears out the pipes if you will yes and um and and sort of the the the [ __ ] companies um uh go bankrupt and the ones that are doing useful products uh are prosperous um and um but there's certainly a lesson here that if one is making useful product and and doing has a company that makes sense uh make sure you're not running things too close to the edge from a capital standpoint they've got some capital reserves to last through uh irrational times because in the in the past when there's been a recession um it has gone it's amazing it's flipped like a light switch i mean david do you remember
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this when from the from the paypal you know ex-paypal days when we uh raised 100 million dollars in march of 2000 uh and we literally we had the demand was so high we had uh people like vcs like just literally without even a term sheet wiring money into our account um we'll send the term sheet later literally we're like we like sleuth out our our bank account number and wire money in and we're like where'd this come from and it's like um they so it was like there was literally fire hosing money in march of 2000 and and then in april 2000 the market went into free fall and it went from money raising money was trivial to even good companies could not raise money uh in a month um so it's just important to bear in mind like that you know paypal almost went
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bankrupt in in 2000 uh we came close um but but thankfully we would raise that that hundred million dollars in in march 2000 uh without which would be uh could be a game over basically um uh and we kind of saw it coming so it's like we we we got that the the x confinity merger done in like three weeks and raised 100 million dollars because we were like oh how we see this coming to an end pretty soon and then a month later it was like you know a nightmare basically um and and uh anyway so it's just important make sure if you're a healthy company you've got some capital to get through things um and and then what what's your costs and uh if you if if it is a recession which it more likely than not it is a recession not saying it is but it probably is um
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then just uh make what's your cash flow and get the cop positive cash flow soon as you can um so um yeah uh but i think we probably are that are in a recession and that that recession will get get worse um but you know these things pass and then there will be boom times again um so it'll probably be some some tough going for i don't know a year uh maybe maybe you know 12 to 18 months is usually um the amount of time that it takes for for the a correction to to happen um what do you guys think yeah i david uh how do you feel about it yeah i mean it feels like it started um you know what started as a slowdown earlier this year um now seems like i mean technically i guess we need two quarters of negative growth to be in a recession but it feels like we're
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in one feels like it started um you know the growth stock the software businesses that we invest in are sort of the canaries in the coal mine and there's a lot of a lot of dead canaries uh having a hard time breathing yeah [Laughter] it got stunned for a brief moment and and it just it'll be fine um it it reminds me of the the parrot that you know the pet shop sketch or the parrot it was monty python um it's pining was parrot is pining for the fjords hey um elon a lot has been talked about as we wrap here and you've been incredibly gracious giving us so much time thank you for that um a lot of talk about american exceptionalism over the last couple years waning and maybe this country had seen its best days and uh we see the work you're doing and other
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people in this great country are doing and the debates we're having about the future and yeah china's doing pretty fantastic rushes on the ropes but it does seem like uh america is still producing some of the greatest companies uh the world has ever seen some of the greatest innovations what are your thoughts on america and our future and what we need to keep this country and this beacon of hope that you know four of the five of us were not born here you know two of you came from south africa and no three of you three of you came from south africa one of you from canada i don't know what they're putting in from sri lanka and from sri lanka and through canada canada via canada he came through canada too yeah i know it seems like that's the that's the way
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canada is a gateway it is a gateway and how do we it's a well i'm hinting at the answer here but you know it does seem like our immigration policy is absolutely insane and uh maybe we need to keep collecting some of the great individuals that i get to share the stage with here and yourself we need to keep bringing great people to this country why can't we get that in our heads that yeah it's talent recruitment no absolutely i think uh it's incredibly important that the united states be like the destination for the world's best talent i mean you can think of this like like like a pro sports team if you want to win the league um and and uh you know you want the best players on your team um there now there are obviously a lot of very talented people born
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in the united states um but if you can add a few aces from uh from uh outside the country to the team you're gonna win the league um and and and here's the thing those aces actually want to work for your team they don't want to compete against you they want to they want why don't we want to be on team america and and so it's like we have to like fight them off to not be on team america that's the crazy thing um and so it's like if you got some aces that that are the difference between winning and losing we should be like really recruiting them like you'd recruit like a star basketball player or football player that's what we should be doing um active recruiting um just like if you're a company that once wants to succeed you actively recruit the best talent
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and then and and that that's the way to win and and if if that stops happening america will stop winning and we have two administrations in a row biden and trump who don't want to let the greatest minds the most talented people into this country is absolutely insane i mean i think they deal with this every day reality is like actually any anyone who who's gonna who wants to to to work hard and be and do useful things um and in this you know uh we we want in the united states um and it's not just people who are sort of intellectually strong but it's just anyone with a with a strong work ethic you know if if they're coming from mexico or if they're coming from you know europe or china wherever it's just if they're like going to come here and crank hard
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and and contribute more than they take hell yeah i mean that's just it's a no-brainer have you been have you been disappointed in the similarities between biden and trump on this like maybe you could have expected it from trump because that was a rhetoric he needed to use to get elected but it's not as if biden has flipped the script and said okay we're going to go 180 degrees in the other direction he's kind of kept it the same which has been really surprising actually man it's hard to tell what bite is doing if we told frank um yeah like i feel like it's weaker than bernie's the the the real president is whoever controls the teleprompter you know it's like it's like the path to power is the path to the teleprompter you know like what what because that
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then he just reads the teleprompter so you know i do feel like like if if somebody would accidentally lead on lean on the teleprompter it's going to be like anchorman it's going to be like qqq asdf123 you know type of thing um i mean in fairness to biden he he hasn't been napping as much as he needs to but it's just it's hard hard things that are getting done you know i mean this administration just it doesn't seem to get a lot done like and you know um whatever like the trump administration leaving trump aside there were a lot of people in the administration who were effective at getting things done so uh but this this administration seems just just to not have like the drive to just get you done uh that that um that that's my it's it's that's my impression
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um so um you know we definitely need to fix immigration policy like we had covert which was an issue and and and so that was like one reason like not you know i guess clamp down it on but now now we've moved on and so let's let's just make sure we're getting tough talent uh in the united states um and and really i'd say broadly it's anyone who who wants to work for [ __ ] um and and uh and contribute more than they take to the economy like that's just necessarily going to make for a stronger better society in america elon did you see uh jeff's uh bezos's tweet back and forth with biden um where biden i think was talking about inflation inflation but then he correlated that to taxing corporations and bezos said this is misinformation and disinformation
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et cetera et cetera what do you what do you think about that whole exchange then back and forth i mean the obvious reason for inflation is that the government printed a zillion amount more money than it had uh obviously um so it's like the government can't just uh you know have [Music] um issue checks far in excess of revenue without there being inflation um you know velocity of money held constant so unless something would change with velocity of money but but it it just look the the if the federal government writes checks they don't they never bounce so that is effectively creation of more of more dollars and if if there are more dollars created than the increase in the goods and services output of the economy then you have inflation again velocity
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money held constant um but so uh this is just this is very basic this is not like uh you know uh super complicated um and if if the government could just issue uh massive amounts of money and have it and deficits didn't matter then why don't we just make the deficit a hundred times bigger okay the answer is you can't because it will basically turn the dollar into something that is worthless so um and various countries have have tried this experiment multiple times it's not like oh i wonder what happens if this if if this is done yeah have you seen venezuela like the the poor people of venezuela are you know have been just run roughshod by their government um and so obviously you can't simply uh create money the the true economy is very important like
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the true economy is the output of goods and services it's not money it's it's literally what is the output of goods and services money is simply a way to to for us to or anything that you call money uh is is a way for us to conveniently exchange goods and services without having to engage in barter and also to shift obligations in time that those are the two reasons that you have money this thing called money it's it's really it's a database the money is an information system for uh for labor allocation and for exchange of goods and services and for translating in time and the quality of that information is a function of it's like you basically you can apply information theory to money and and i think it it helps explain why one money system is or why
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one action is better than another and so if like the the money you you just just like a an internet connection you'd want something that's high bandwidth uh low latency and jitter and uh is not dropping packets does not have a lot of errors in the system um and the same is true true of money um you you want then and really like you said what did paypal really really do that helped improve the the the bandwidth that the speed at which money could move um instead of of mailing checks back and forth which amazingly that was what people did uh in 2000 um uh you you could now do real-time exchange of of money um and and now you could ship your goods immediately instead of mailing a check and waiting for the bank to clear the check so uh like and and the the
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ultimate thing that with paypal or or if it sort of was in the x.
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com sort of went more less sort of niche payments more sort of broad financial would be to simply just that uh just mediate all the heterogeneous uh cobalt databases out there running on mainframes during batch processing and have a single real-time system that uh that was secure um and not batch processing um and so it would just be from an information standpoint more efficient and and eventually it would all the the batch processing cobal mainframes operated by the banks would cease to exist you've um spent more time uh and built more in china than almost anybody i mean apple would be the only company i could think of that's probably got a bigger footprint but i'm not certain of that what have you learned about china that you didn't know before you
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opened the factories there and started delivering cars there and what should we know about china you know as americans how should we think about china and our relationship with it because we haven't spent time there sure well i'd say like china first of all is not monolithic it's not like uh everything everything is not some plot by the chinese government um the uh the the there are many uh factions within china that compete uh vigorously within china um and uh so um and and and perhaps most important is that there's just a just a tremendous number of hard-working smart people in china who want to get ahead and get things done um and they're not complacent and they're not entitled um and they're gonna they're they want to get things done and they they
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want to make a better life for themselves um and what we're gonna see uh which was china for uh for the first time that anyone can remember who is alive is an economy that is twice the size of the us possibly three times the size of the us is going to be very weird living in that world so uh we we better stop the infighting in the u.
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s and start punching ourselves in the face because like there's a whole there's way too much uh you know of america punching itself in the damn face it's just just dumb um and and think about like hey we got to be competitive here and and uh there's a new kid on the block that's going to be two to three times our size we better step up our game um and uh you know and stop infighting um you think it's easier to stop in fighting once we're beaten or do you think that there's a way folks here can actually just you know get their political and commercial act together but or does it not happen until we've realized we've lost or do we need a war i mean we i sure hope we don't need a war um uh but there will be certainly um you know an economic competition that
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i think will will blow people away um when they realize just how competitive they have to be to be competitive with companies in china it's very difficult you know tesla is competitive hotels is competitive because we have an awesome team in china that uh you know so um like do your tesla china employees work some meaningful percentage more or harder than your tesla non-china employees do you find like it's two different companies basically well i mean i i think tesla is somewhat it it tells us sort of pretty far out there in terms of work ethic uh anywhere in the world so uh the tales of work ethic in the us i think is substantially greater than any other car company or or any large manufacturing company that i'm aware of so you know tesla tesla does
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have a a strong worth work ethic in in the u.
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s but but to be totally frank it it the work that work ethic is exceeded um uh on balance by uh it tells a china team that that is i think objectively true so does not say there aren't lots of hard-working people that tells the u.
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s they certainly are but if you say on average the the the work ethic in china is higher it's just tell us tell us what you're calling it like it is you know so what about if you're an american ceo how do you deal with do you think just the need for managing all these political factions inside of a company you probably saw you know all the sturm and wrong related to disney and what happened to them and what's continuing to happen to them on both sides between their employees as well as the governments etc um do you have any advice or what do you tell like young ceos that you hang out with about how to deal with that how to make those decisions where you land in the spectrum of dealing with all of this stuff the non-work issues that are related to now
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you know going to work every day i'm not sure i entirely understand what you mean like uh you know although whether it's the the need for political correctness or the need for having political points of view and having to bring that and balance that in the workplace how do you deal with that how do you give advice to other folks about having to deal with it look i think it you know the the point of a company is to produce useful products and services for your fellow human beings it is not uh you know some political gathering place or a thing where if that's the point of a company like it's i'd say like it's you know politics and other stuff should let's not lose sight of why companies should exist um [Music] so i i i i gotta i gotta i'm i'm actually late
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for yeah i apologize i'm gonna work on the rocket guys uh yeah um we're gonna go ahead and let you uh get to mars and uh i'll see you soon [Music] and they've just gone crazy [Music] we need to get mercies [Music]