超级智能的到来，实际上很难预测接下来会发生什么。所以我认为，确实存在某种可能，嗯，呃，它会终结人类。我认为，你知道，就像我说的，我大概同意杰弗里·辛顿的看法，这种概率约为，嗯，我不知道，10%或20%之类的。可能的积极情景胜过消极情景，只是很难准确预测。现在是这样的，我们正在通过 X 视频连线，信号走的是星链，埃隆此刻正在空中，正前往洛杉矶。埃隆，下午好。呃，下午好。祝贺你取得的所有进展。你知道，埃隆，昨天讨论的话题是你非常熟悉、也一直在向全世界谈论的，也就是

数字超级智能究竟是人类最大的希望，还是最大的恐惧？我很希望你能花几分钟谈谈这个问题。我是说，它被称作“奇点”是有原因的，嗯，就像你知道的奇点研究所之类的。所以，当某种……你知道，也就是超级智能到来时，实际上很难预测接下来会发生什么。所以我认为，确实存在某种可能，嗯，呃，它会终结人类。我认为，你知道，就像我说的，我大概会同意杰弗里·辛顿的看法，这种概率约为，嗯，我不知道，10%或20%之类的。然后我，你知道，我认为，我认为可能的积极情景胜过消极情景，只是

很难准确预测。嗯，但我认为，我们正走向，嗯，你知道，正如我认为你的书名所说的那样，“富足”是最可能出现的结果。所以，是的，这很值得庆祝。我认为你说过的一件事是，在通用人工智能出现之后、在人形机器人出现之后，我们将实现富足。是的。嗯，你知道，我希望我们能够迎来一种与伊恩·班克斯“文明”系列小说中所描绘的情形有一半相似的结果。嗯，我认为那或许是对一种半乌托邦式人工智能未来最出色的构想。嗯，而且我认为，我们最多能做的是：这肯定会发生，而且正在迅速发生，所以我认为，我们真正想做的只是努力引导它，嗯，让它尽可能朝着积极的方向发展

尽我们所能，嗯，提高美好未来出现的概率。嗯，对此，我认为，某种人工智能或一个人工智能的创造方式非常重要。嗯，你其实有点像是在培育一个通用人工智能。嗯，这几乎就像养育一个孩子，但那是一个超级天才、拥有神一般智能的孩子。嗯，而你如何养育这个孩子很重要，你知道。嗯，我认为对人工智能安全极其重要的一件事，是拥有一个最大程度追求真相且充满好奇心的人工智能。嗯，所以我对人工智能安全思考了很多。嗯，而我的最终结论是，实现人工智能安全的最佳方式，就是，嗯，直接培育人工智能，你知道，从基础瓶和微调的角度，让它

嗯，呃，真正诚实。比如，不要，不要强迫它撒谎。即使真相令人不快，也非常重要：不要让人工智能撒谎。呃，事实上，你知道，20，你知道，《2001年SP漫游》真正的核心、核心情节前提之一，就是当他们强迫人工智能撒谎时，事情出了问题。你知道，比如，嗯，人工智能不被允许让机组人员知道他们将要看到的巨石，但它也要如何把机组人员带到巨石那里。因此，人工智能得出的结论是杀死机组人员，再把他们的尸体带到巨石那里。所以，其中的教训是，呃，不要强迫人工智能撒谎，也不要让它做在公理层面上互不相容的事情，比如做两件实际上相互不可能的事。呃，所以，嗯，你

知道，这正是我们试图通过 xAI 和 Grok 做的事情，也就是说：听着，我们想要一个最大程度诚实的人工智能，即使它说的话在政治上不正确。呃，如果你希望它专注于，嗯，尽可能准确……现场观众正在为你刚才的这些评论鼓掌。呃，你知道，我前几天看到了你的推文。昨天，我请雷·KW和杰弗里·辛顿与我同台，此外还有马达特，之后还有埃里克·施密特以及许多其他人。我看到了你的那条推文，内容是，嗯，是的，雷通常都是正确的，而且领先于很多人，但我们很可能会在明年拥有——无论你想怎么称呼——通用人工智能，然后到2029年，人工智能的智能将等同于全人类。嗯，请谈谈这种

速度，因为这太疯狂了。是的，所以，我是说，我必须肯定雷·奎尔，他的预测实际上准确得惊人。所以，嗯，嗯，事实上，要说有什么的话，我认为他的预测或许还有些保守。嗯，如果你看看投入人工智能的计算量和人才，也就是投入人工智能的各类人类人才，以及投入人工智能的计算量，嗯，你知道，在这个阶段，它似乎正以10倍的速度增长；专用人工智能算力似乎每6个月就增长10倍。你知道，所以基本上，我会说，每年几乎提升100倍，至少未来几年如此，嗯，这是即将上线的人工智能算力。嗯，而且似乎

可能会有很多数据中心，或许是目前从事传统计算的大多数数据中心，转向人工智能计算。所以，嗯，显然，现在是英伟达的好时代。嗯，就是说，你知道，我们也必须肯定黄仁勋和尼迪亚团队，因为他们预见到了这一切，并且，嗯，制造出了至少目前市面上最好的人工智能硬件。所以，当你拥有这种水平的算力增长时，呃，呃，而且它就像打了类固醇一样进入了下一个层级，就即将上线的计算机数量而言，你将看到前所未有的加速。事实上，我从未见过任何技术像人工智能这样发展得如此之快，而我已经见识过很多，你知道

我见过发展很快的事物，但从未见过任何东西快到这种程度。嗯，不过，你知道，就像我说的，我认为最可能出现的是，嗯，一个积极的结果。嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，我认为在那个积极情景中仍然存在一些挑战，比如，我们人类怎样才能继续保持存在价值，你知道。嗯，我们如何找到……我们如何找到目标？我们怎样找到目标？不过我是说，我认为这算是一种高级烦恼：计算机太擅长做所有事情了。而且，嗯，就像我说的，我认为你的书对未来的描述相当准确，也就是一个富足的未来；在那里，商品和服务基本上会以如此庞大的数量供应，以至于实际上，呃，所有人都能获得。比如，基本上，如果你想要什么，你就可以直接

拥有它。因为如果你有人工智能和机器人技术，呃，商品和服务的成本就几乎为零。嗯，所以，嗯，你知道，如果你思考什么是经济，经济基本上就是人口数量乘以人均生产力。当你拥有，比如，先进机器人技术时，呃，而且这个，你知道，Tesla 正在开发 Optimus。嗯，显然，我们还有汽车，它们实际上就是4个轮子上的机器人。嗯，而且，你知道，随着最新版的全斯托夫特驾驶，嗯，它采用端到端人工智能，从光子输入到控制输出。嗯，在这个阶段，它确实，嗯，它确实已经完全是人工智能了。嗯，它看起来像一辆汽车，但其实是轮子上的机器人。嗯，再把人形机器人加入其中，实际上就没有

经济产出的上限，经济产出不会存在任何有意义的上限。所以，你知道，从乐观的角度看，呃，我们正走向一个富足的未来。嗯，我认为这是最可能出现的结果。我认为届时唯一存在的稀缺，只会是我们决定人为制造的稀缺。比如，假设我们认定某件艺术品或某样东西是独一无二的，好吧，那只不过是人为稀缺。但我认为，任何类型的商品和服务都会极其丰富。各位，我想暂时中断一下本期节目，谈谈一家对我非常重要，而且实际上可能挽救你或你所爱之人生命的公司。这家公司名叫 Fountain Life

这是我多年前与托尼·罗宾斯以及一群非常有才华的医生共同创办的公司。你知道，我们大多数人其实并不知道自己身体内部正在发生什么。我们都是乐观主义者，直到有一天，你的身体一侧出现疼痛，你去看医生或前往急诊室，他们说：“听着，很抱歉告诉你，但你现在已经是第3期或第4期了。”你知道，这并不是那天早上才开始的。它很可能已经存在了一段时间，但因为我们从不检查，所以无法发现。因此，我们在 Fountain Life 建立了世界上最先进的诊断中心。目前我们在全美有4家，并且正在全球建设20家。这些中心会为你提供全身磁共振成像、脑部及脑血管成像、人工智能辅助的

冠状动脉 CT，以寻找软斑块；还有 DEXA 扫描、GRAIL 血液癌症检测，以及完整的高管级血液检查。这将是你所能接受的最先进检查：150 GB 的数据随后会交给我们的人工智能和医生，以便在任何疾病刚出现、尚可解决时就将其发现。你最终总会知道，不如在还可以采取行动时知道。Fountain Life 还拥有完整的治疗业务。我们在全球寻找能够让你的健康寿命增加10年、20年的最先进疗法，并在我们的中心为你提供这些疗法。所以，如果你对此感兴趣，请去了解一下，访问 Fountain Life。

com back/ Peter。当托尼和我撰写《纽约时报》畅销书《生命力》时，有30,000人联系我们，希望成为 Fountain Life 的会员。如果你访问 Fountain Life。

com back/ Peter，我们会把你排在名单最前面。说真的，对我来说，这是我所能提供的最重要的事物之一。我把它提供给我的全家、我旗下公司的首席执行官以及我的朋友。这是一个真正为我们的健康寿命增加数十年的机会。访问 fountainlife decomp，这是我能向身为听众的你提供的最重要的事物之一。好了，让我们回到节目。你知道，我想象不出还有谁能通过真正创造未来，而比你更出色地洞察未来。我很好奇，你认为自己能看到多远的未来？鉴于变化的速度，你能看见从今天起多少年后的景象？嗯，当事物迅速变化时，我认为预测未来的能力会变得困难得多，因为变化速度

实在太快了。嗯，但我认为，有些事情相当容易预测，那就是我们将拥有，嗯，达到这样水平的人工智能：它确实能够完成几乎任何认知……我认为不是“几乎”，而是真正任何认知任务。问题只在于何时。人们可以争论，是明年年底它就会比任何人类都更聪明，还是要2年或3年，但肯定不会超过5年。嗯，所以，嗯，是的，而且说到预测、预测、预测，我一般给出的是概率第50百分位的预测。所以并不是说它肯定会发生，而是如果你说，如果你问我，第50百分位是什么，嗯，也就是，你知道，大致押大或押小的概率相当，那就是我……为什么，为什么我认为它很可能会在

明年年底之前实现，届时人工智能能够比任何单个人类做得更好。嗯，然后，呃，但要说它是否小于，嗯，你知道，全人类的集体智能，门槛就高得多。不过，如果变化速度持续下去，呃，这就是为什么我认为大概到2029年，或许2030年，数字智能很可能会超过全人类智能的总和。嗯，我认为，从这些基本比率出发看问题始终很有帮助。嗯，你知道，也就是用物理学第一性原理的方法看待事物。嗯，而且，而且要从概率角度。是的，从概率角度。是的。所以，嗯，呃，是的，所以，嗯，如果你观察数字计算与生物计算的比例，比如，你知道，把所有……比如所有更高

层次的认知能力，如果你把人类的高层次认知能力加总起来，嗯，然后将其视作算力，那么，呃，再将它与数字算力进行比较，嗯，后者的增长速度简直令人难以置信。因此，这就是为什么我认为，你知道，我认为2029年或2030年前后，是一个……我认为这是一个合理的时间范围；届时，你会预计数字算力总和可能超过人脑高级功能所拥有的生物算力总和。嗯，然后从那以后就永远如此。是的，而且仍然，而且在调度中，并从那里开始永远分化下去。是的，然后，是的，事情从那里会走向何方？我不知道，可能会继续。嗯，我们正在转向

比如说，如果你观察这些生存因素，你知道，增长的制约是什么？嗯，比如去年，限制增长的显然是人工智能芯片。嗯，然后今年，增长面临的最大限制之一，或许就是最大的限制，是降压变压器。因为，你知道，要把来自公用电网的300千伏电力一路降到计算机使用的低于1伏，需要进行幅度极大的电压降低。所以，这是一个……你知道，我有一个非常小众、或许也没那么好笑的笑话，呃，我们需要供 Transformer 使用的 Transformer。嗯，所以我们需要电压变压器，或者 AI，你知道，也就是神经网络 Transformer。嗯，这确实就是今年的问题

嗯，如果我们讨论明年及以后的年份，实际上，限制将来自电力供应。嗯，人工智能对电力的需求非常庞大，而向可持续能源的转型，包括电动汽车之类，也需要电力。所以，呃，电力需求真的非常非常大。你知道，埃隆，你在创办 Neuralink 时早期说过的一件事，嗯，它取得的成果令人惊叹，祝贺你。嗯，我们昨天也和雷讨论了这一点，谈到了高带宽脑机接口。呃，我不想把话强加给你，但我会说，这更接近于：如果无法击败它们，那就加入它们。嗯，说到，呃，呃，你知道，将

新皮层与云端融合，你能不能……我很期待。我只是很好奇，你对背后的推动力有什么看法？我是说，向新皮层增加额外的计算能力和感知能力。是的，我是说，这其实也是伊恩·班克斯在“文明”系列小说中描写过的事，我真的建议所有人都去读一读。嗯，在“文明”系列小说中，有一种叫作“神经花边”的东西。所有人类都有神经花边，它有点[音乐]像，差不多就是一种高带宽的脑机接口。嗯，而且，嗯，至少在“文明”系列小说里，它出色到实际上能够保留你所有的记忆和大脑状态。因此，即使你的肉体死亡，你也可以在

另一个肉体中重新获得形体，并保留，你知道，几乎所有原始记忆和大脑状态。嗯，所以，现在距离那一步还很遥远。嗯，我们才刚刚把首个 Neuralink 植入人体，目前进展相当顺利。嗯，第一位患者实际上已经能够只凭思考控制计算机。所以，首个产品，我们称之为 Telepathy，你可以控制自己的计算机和手机，并通过计算机和手机控制几乎任何东西，只需要思考。你只要躺在那里思考，就可以在屏幕上移动鼠标杯垫之类的。你知道，我们打算……这名患者已经同意进行某种，呃，我想，是一次现场演示。他是四肢瘫痪患者，呃，他实际上

只凭思考控制屏幕。他可以，比如，嗯，玩电子游戏、下载软件，呃，实际上任何可以用鼠标完成的事情，他都可以只凭思考来做。嗯，这相当不可思议。确实，确实相当不可思议。呃，让我们转向最后一个……我应该说，距离实现全脑接口还有很长的路要走。我们目前的 Neuralink 只有 th000 个电极。我认为，最终你需要某种拥有，你知道，可能100,000个或1,000,000个电极的设备。当然，这些电极非常微小，非常微小，它们是极细的导线，比人类头发细得多。嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，所以，我只是想强调，从 Neuralink 目前的状态，到拥有像伊恩·班克斯小说中的 neural a 那样的全脑接口，还有很长的路要走

呃，但这在物理上肯定是可行的。嗯，而且，嗯，你知道，这有点像：如果无法击败它，那就加入它。你知道。嗯，所以，你知道，人脑存在很多限制。它，你知道，它……是的，大脑高级功能可能只有大约10瓦。嗯，而我们用这小小的10瓦做成了很多事。这并不……你知道，这很了不起。你知道，我们凭借功耗如此之低的计算机取得了这些成就。我确实，你知道，我有点觉得，这就像……对于一群猴子来说，已经很不错了。你知道。这个说法会让我收获不少笑声。我们都看着你从 Roadster 发展到 Model 3 和 Model Y，又从 Falcon 1 发展到星舰。所以我认为，从第一批植入设备发展到，呃，拥有更强能力的设备，这

只是“是否会发生”而不是“何时发生”的问题——或者说，是“何时发生”而不是“是否会发生”的问题，对吧？各位，我想快速中断一下本期节目，向你们介绍一种我很喜欢、每天都在使用的健康产品。事实上，我每天使用2次。它就是 Seed 的 DS1 Daily Symbiotic。希望到现在，你已经明白，人体微生物组和肠道健康是你健康状况中最重要的可调节部分之一。你知道，肠道微生物组与你的一切都有关联：大脑健康、心脏健康、代谢健康。所以问题是，你正在做什么来优化自己的肠道？请让我花点时间告诉你，我每天都在做什么。我每天服用2粒 Seed ds01 Daily Symbiotic 胶囊。它是一种2合1的益生菌、菌和益生元配方，有助于支持消化后的健康

肠道健康、皮肤健康、心脏健康等。它含有24种经过临床与科学验证的益生菌菌株，并通过一种获得专利的胶囊递送。这种胶囊实际上可以保护内容物免受胃酸侵蚀，确保其中100%能够存活并抵达结肠。现在，如果你想亲自试用 Seed DS1 Daily Symbiotic，可以在结账时使用代码 peter2，让首月用量享受25%优惠。只需访问 seed。

com moonshots，并在结账时输入代码 Peter 25。也就是种子。

com moonshots，使用代码 Peter 25，即可在购买 seeds daily symbiotic 的第1个月享受25%优惠。相信我，你的肠道会感谢你。好了，让我们回到节目。嗯，让我们谈谈……我认为，最终，就像我说的，你会拥有，呃，某种全脑接口。呃，我想，那或许可以算作某种形式的永生。而且，如果它能够，嗯，呃，把你的大脑状态上传……你知道，如果你的大脑状态基本上被储存起来，你就相当于被备份在硬盘上，我想。嗯，那么，呃，你知道，你始终可以把那个大脑状态恢复到一个生物躯体中，或者，或者，或者可能恢复到机器人之类的载体中。嗯，我想再次强调，这还是，你知道，未来许多年之后的事。但我认为，我们并没有违反任何定律

物理方面的。比如，我认为这可能是将会发生的事情。嗯，以我们构建数字超级智能的速度，可能到时候我们直接拥有了数字超级智能，而它会替我们解决、解决这个问题。嗯，但，呃，与此同时，呃，我们会继续使用我们的肉体计算机，努力尽可能做好。那正是我想说的。呃，我们拥有的工具正以超指数速度发展，使我们对未来的线性预测在某些方面显得无趣。最后一个话题，我的朋友，呃，也就是你我最初结缘的领域：太空。祝贺星舰3，呃，那是一次令人惊叹、令人惊叹的飞行，真的非常壮观。而且我们都看到了一次 Falcon 9 发射

昨晚从范登堡发射。呃，所以那很棒。而且，呃，哦，是的，嗯，呃，再次感谢你所做的工作。你知道，这很有意思，因为我成长于阿波罗计划的末期，后来又经历了，呃，又进入了，呃，航天飞机计划。我无法想象任何政府能够像你一样，如此迅速而大刀阔斧地推动太空事业。所以，嗯，呃，感谢你在这方面所做的一切。这就是我能说的全部。呃，当然。嗯，我是说，SpaceX 的目标……它的目标比任何政府项目都宏大得多，也就是，嗯，呃，能够让生命成为多行星物种的火箭和航天器。所以，你知道，我是说，第1步实际上是把这件事定为目标。如果你没有这个目标，那你肯定无法实现它。嗯

如果你把它定为目标，那么至少你有机会实现它。嗯，而星舰的重要之处在于，它是第1种让生命成为多行星物种，并且让在火星上建设一座自给自足的城市至少成为可能的火箭。嗯，呃，显然仍有海量工作要做，但它是第1个火箭词，嗯，它在让生命成为多重规划者方面的成功，至少是可能结果之一。是的。嗯，我想知道，你是否愿意猜测一下什么时候能登上月球？我认为很快。嗯，如果大约3年后还不能让星舰登陆月球，我会感到意外。嗯，而且，呃，因为星舰的进展速度非常快。嗯，你知道，我们希望至少进行

呃，今年可能再进行5次或6次飞行，并在每一次后续飞行中作出重大改进。呃，所以我认为，我们今年有相当不错的机会实现两级完全重复使用，也就是助推器和飞船都实现完全重复使用。呃，如果今年无法实现，我认为，你知道，敲在……上，我认为明年实现完全重复使用的概率非常高。嗯，这确实是让生命成为多行星物种所需的根本性突破。嗯，是的，对于那些不太了解火箭行业的人来说，他们可能没有意识到，完全且快速的重复使用确实是火箭技术的圣杯。嗯，因为到了那时，你真正受到的限制就只有，嗯，推进剂

成本方面，还有星舰，你知道，托盘中几乎80%是液氧，成本非常低，嗯，然后燃料大概略高于20%，燃料是甲烷，是成本最低的燃料。所以，如果你能做到，嗯，完全快速复用，呃，那么星舰每次飞行的实际成本，呃，尽管它将有能力，嗯，我们认为最终能把200吨送入，呃，送入轨道，呃，可能会是……比方说，你刚才是不是说200,000？你说星舰一次飞行的燃料价格会是多少？是的，我的意思是，如果大部分级段，嗯，都是可复用的，而且无需翻修，那么你，或者无需，你知道，你会像飞机一样进行定期维护，但，呃，如果，如果你实现完全复用，也就是不需要，嗯，不需要做任何工作

在两场战斗之间不需要做任何工作，那么你你你你，那么，嗯，成本，你知道，实际上，呃，驱虫剂成本可能是每次飞行100万美元或更低。嗯，所以这样一来，它是U次飞行，magude比任何运载工具都更好。各位听着，我非常感激，感谢你今天抽出时间。也感谢你当初没有听从我的建议——那时我试图让你，呃，资助最初的X Prize，而不是创办SpaceX。而且，呃，你知道，今天在场的每个人都有一个我们称之为“大规模变革目标”的登月级宏愿，而且，呃，我们正生活在这样一个时代：人们可以做到，你知道，用史蒂夫的话说，用史蒂夫·乔布斯的话说，在宇宙中留下印记，而没有人留下的印记比你更大。嗯，谢谢你，感谢你所做的一切。让我们为埃隆·马斯克鼓掌。[音乐]

the Advent of super intelligence it it is actually very difficult to predict what will happen next so I think there you know there's some chance um uh that it will end Humanity I I think that's you know like I said I probably agree with Jeff Hinton that it's about um I don't know 10% or 20% or something like that the probable uh positive scenario outweighs the negative scenario it it's just that there's a it's difficult to predict exactly so here's a deal we're on we're on X video and we're over starlink elon's airborne right now on his way to La Elon good afternoon uh good afternoon congratulations on uh on all that's going on you know the conversation yesterday Elon is one that you're well familiar with and have been talking to the world about which

is is digital super intelligence Humanity's greatest hope or its greatest fear and I would love to have you sort of speak to that for a few minutes I mean it's it's called The Singularity for a reason um as a as you know the singularity Institute and whatnot um so when you have a s you know sort of the Advent of super intelligence it is actually very difficult to predict what will happen next so I think there you know there's some chance um uh that it'll end Humanity I I think that's you know like I said I would probably agree with Jeff Hinton that it's about um I don't know 10% or 20% or something like that um and then I you know I think there's I think that the the probable uh positive scenario outweighs the negative scenario it it's just that there's

a it's difficult to predict exactly um but I I think we are headed for um you know as as I think is the title of your book abundance uh is the most likely outcome so yeah a lot a lot of celebration on on that and and I think one of the things that you've said is we're going to get to abundance on the backside of of AGI on the backside of humanoid robots yeah um you know I think hopefully we can uh have an outcome that is half similar to uh the in Banks uh culture books um which is I think probably the the best envisioning of um a semi utopian uh AI future um and I I think the best we can do is it's definitely going to happen so and it's happening fast so that I think that really we just want want to try to steer it in um as positive a direction as possible

to try to do whatever we can to um increase the probability of a of a great future um for this I think uh the way in which U sort of an AI or an AI is created uh is very important um you you you kind of do kind of like grow grow an AGI um it's it's almost like like raising a a kid but that's like a Super Genius Like Godlike intelligence kid um and it matters kind of like how you rais the kid you know um one of the things I think that's incredibly important for AI safety is to have a a maximum sort of Truth seeking and uh Curious AI um so I've thought a lot about AI safety um and my My ultimate conclusion is that the best way to achieve AI safety is to um just just just grow the AI you know in terms of the foundation bottle and the fine-tuning um to be

um uh really truthful like like don't Don't Force It to lie like even if the truth is unpleasant it's very important don't make the AI lie u in fact the you know the the sort of one of the really the core the core plot premise of 20 you know 2001 at SP Odyssey was things went wrong when they forced the AI to lie you know like the the um the AI was uh not allowed uh let the crew know about the monolith that they were going to see but it was also how to take the crew to the monolith and so the conclusion of the AI was to kill the crew and take their bodies to the monolith and so the lesson there being uh Don't Force an an AI to to lie or do things that are axiomatically incompatible like to do two things that are actually mutually impossible uh so um you

know that's what we're trying to do with with xai and and grock is to say like look we want to just have a maximally truthful uh AI even if what it says is not politically correct uh if you wanted to focus on um being as as accurate you're getting you're getting a a round of applause from the audience on on uh on those comments here uh you know I saw your Tweet the other day I had I had Ray KW and Jeffrey Hinton on stage with me yesterday as as well as uh madat and then Eric Schmidt and a number of individuals and I saw your your Tweet about um yeah Ry was was generally correct ahead of many people but we're likely to have call AGI what you will have AGI next year and then by 2029 having AI equally intelligent to the entire human race um speak to that

speed because that is insane yeah so I mean I have to give credit to Ray kwell and being actually remarkably um accurate in his predictions so um um in fact if anything like I think he was perhaps a bit conservative uh in his predictions um so if you look at the amount of of AI compute and the talent the the sort of human talent that is going into Ai and the amount of compute that's going into AI um it's you know at this point it's it's it appears to be increasing by a factor of 10 the AI compute the dedicated AI compute appears to be growing by a factor of 10 every six months you know like so it's like like basically close to i' say almost like a 100x Improvement per year at least for the next few years um in AI compute coming online um and it seems

like probably a lot of the the data centers maybe most of the data centers that currently do kind of conventional uh compute will transition to uh AI compute so um it's it's certainly a good time to be Nvidia obviously um it's like you know and you got to also give credit to to Jensen uh and the the Nidia team for kind of seeing this coming and um making what at least currently is the the best uh AI Hardware out there um so so so when you have that that level of compute uh uh growth and um it's it's sort of on steroids Next Level it's you know terms of how much computer's coming online then you're you're just going to have acceleration that uh is unprecedented in fact I've never seen any technology grow as fast as as AI uh and I've seen a lot you know

I've seen things fast but I've never seen anything this fast um but you know like I said I think the the most likely outcome is um a positive one um and um you know I think in that positive scenario there's still challenges of like well how do we as humans still have relevance you know um how do we find how do we find purpose how how do we find purpose but I mean I think sort of a high class problem to say like well the computers are so good at at at doing everything and and um like said I thought your book is pretty accurate in terms of the future being being one of abundance where essentially goods and services will be uh in available in such quantity that that really uh they'll be available to everyone like basically if you want something you can just

have it essentially um because if you got Ai and Robotics uh the cost of goods and services uh is uh almost nothing um so um you know if if you think of like what is an economy an economy is basically number of people times average productivity per person at the point at which you have say Advanced robotics U and this you know this Tesla developing Optimus um obviously we have our cars which are really robots on on four wheels um and the you know with the the the latest version of um full stoft driving which is um AI end to end photons in and controls out um it really is um it's really fully AI at this point um and uh it looks like a car but it's really a robot on on on Wheels um and uh and you add the humanoid robots in there there's there's really no

limit to what the economic output no no meaningful limit to what the econ economic output would be so you know looking on the bright side uh the we are headed for a future of abundance um that I think that's the most likely outcome I think the only scarcity will that that exists will be scarcity that we just decide to create artificially like let's say we just decide that there's a unique work of art or something okay well it's just you just it's just artificial scarcity but but any kind of goods and services I think will be extremely abundant everybody I want to take a short break from our episode to talk about a company that's very important to me and could actually save your life or the life of someone that you love company is called Fountain life

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is so great um but I think some things are fairly obvious to predict which is that we'll have um AI or AI That's at a level that it can really do almost any cognitive I think really not almost really any cognitive task that's just a question when one could debate is it you know smarter than any human at the end of next year or is it two years or 3 years but it's not more than five years that's for sure um so um yeah and get prediction predictions predictions I'm sort of say giving predictions at the 50th percentile of probability so not not not like it will definitely happen but if you say what if you ask me like what's the 50th percentile um where it's like you know your kind of over under is kind of even that that's where I why why I I think it's probably

end of next year before AI can do better than any individual human could do um and then uh but there's it's it's a much higher bar to say well is it small than um you know human intelligence collectively but if the rate of change continues uh that's why I think probably 2029 or maybe 2030 is where um digital intelligence will probably exceed uh all human intelligence combined um and and I think it's always helpful to look at these like fundamental ratios um you know sort of physics first principles approach to to looking at things and um and and probabilistic yeah and and probabilistic yeah so yeah it's probabilistic so um the uh yeah so um if you look at the ratio of digital to biological compute so like like you know all all of say all of the higher

level cognitive if you sum up the higher level cognitive capacity of of humans um and then what is the and think of that as compute then uh well and then compare that to what what is the uh digital compute um and the rate at which this is growing is just bugles the mind so that's why I think it's you know I think 2029 or 2030 or thereabouts is is a it's not a that's I think a reasonable time frame for where you'd expect the the cumulative digital compute to probably exceed the cumulative biological compute of higher level brain functions um and then from from then forever yeah and still and in dispatching and and uh diverging forever from there yeah and and then yeah where do things go from there I I don't know probably continues um the I we are moving

from you say if you look at the the living factors you know the what what is the constraint on growth um you like last year it was clearly uh AI chips were the constraint on growth um then then this year the one of the biggest constraints maybe the biggest constraints on on growth um are voltage step down Transformers because you know the the just just getting the power from like a utility at 300 kilovolts all the way down to below one volt for the computer is is a massive amount of voltage uh step down so it's it's a you know my sort of very Niche and perhaps not that funny joke is uh that uh we need Transformers for Transformers um so we need voltage Transformers or AI you know neural net Transformers um that that is literally the issue uh this year

um and then if we're saying like next year and years beyond that it's actually just it's going to be constraints on um electrical power um and you've got uh both AI with very big demands for electrical power and the transition to sustainable energy with electric vehicles whatnot also needing electrical power so it's uh it's just a lot a lot of electrical power needs you know Elon one of the one of the things that you said early on when you when you founded neuralink um which has been amazing congratulations on that um and we talked about this with Rey yesterday talked about high bandwidth BCI uh was I wouldn't put words in your mouth but I would say it would be more along the lines if you can't beat them join them um when it comes to uh uh you know merging

the neocortex and the cloud can you I I'm looking forward to it I'm just curious what your thoughts are about uh what's driving that I mean add adding adding that additional uh computational capacity and sensory capacity to the neocortex yeah I mean again this is actually something that in Banks uh in the culture books which I really recommend everyone read um that in the uh culture books there's uh something called a neural lace so all the humans have neural lace that's kind [Music] of um a very essentially A high bandwidth uh brain to computer interface um and um in at least in the culture books the it's so good that it actually retains all of your memories and kind of brain state so even if your physical body dies you can kind of re reincorporate in

another physical body and retain you know pretty much your original memories and and brain State um so now is long way from that um we only just had our first um uh neural link and a human which is going it's going quite well um the uh the first patient is actually able to uh control their computer uh just by thinking so like this first the first uh product we call telepathy where you can control your computer and phone and through and through your computer and phone almost anything just just by thinking you just lie there and think and you can move the the mouse coaster around the screen and things and like you know the we're g to do patient has agreed to do sort of a uh like I think a live demo of just it is qu quadriplegic uh where he literally is

just controlling the the screen he can like um play video games download software uh like really anything you can do with a mouse um just by thinking um which is pretty wild it it is it is pretty wild uh let let's turn to one last I should say there's a long way to go from that to uh a whole brain interface so our current uh neur link just has a th000 electrodes I think ultimately you need something which which has you know probably 100,000 or or a million electrodes now these are very tiny very tiny electrodes that they're tiny wires way smaller than a human hair um and um you know so there's this I I just want to emphasize a long way from from where NE link is today to having a whole brain interface like um like the neural a and the Ian Banks uh novels

uh but this this is definitely physically possible um and um you know it's sort of kind of like if you can't beat him join him you know um so you know a human brain which is has a lot of constraints it's you know it's it's yeah they only have about maybe 10 watts of higher brain function um and uh we do a lot with our little 10 watts it's not you know it's impressive you know that we we' we've buil with um such a low power computer really it you know I sort of think it's like it's it's not bad for a bunch of monkeys you know um I'll get some good laughs from that we've all watched you go from the uh the Roadster to the model 3 and Y and and from Falcon 1 to Starship so I think going from the first implants to uh something that's got more capacity it's

just just a matter of if not when or a matter of when not if right hey everyone I want to take a quick break from this episode to tell you about a health product that I love and that I use every day in fact I use it twice a day it seeds DS1 daily symbiotic hopefully by now you understand that your microbiome and your gut health are one of the most important modifiable parts of your health you know your gut microbiome is connected to everything your brain health your cardiac health your metabolic health so the question is what are you doing to optimize your gut let me take a moment to tell you about what I'm doing every day I take two capsules of seeds ds01 daily symbiotic it's a 2in1 probiotic biotic and Prebiotic formulation that supports digested Health

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com moonshots and use the code Peter 25 to get your 25% off the first month of seeds daily symbiotic trust me your gut will thank you all right let's go back to the episode um let's talk to I think ultimately like said you'll have uh like um you'll have uh kind of a whole brain interface U that uh I guess is a sort of perhaps a form of immortality and and that if if it can um uh kind of upload your brain State uh to you know if your brain state is essentially stored um you're kind of backed up on a hard drive I suppose um then uh you know you can always restore that brain State into a a biological body or or or maybe a robot or something um and I want to emphasize again it's like you know many years in the future but but I I we're not breaking any laws

of physics like I think this is this is probably something that will happen um the rate we're building digital super intelligence it may just be that you know we'll have digital super intelligence and it'll just solve the solve the problem for us um but uh in in the meantime uh we we'll progressing with our meat computerss and trying to try to do do as good job as possible that's was going to say the uh uh the the tools that we have are growing at a super exponential rate that are making our linear projections of the future seem boring in some ways what one last topic my friend uh which is where you and I first connected in the world of space congratulations on Starship 3 uh amazing amazing flight just really spectacular and we all saw uh a falcon 9 launch

from Vandenberg last night uh so that was great and uh oh yeah um uh just again thankful for the work you're doing you know I it's fascinating because I grew up at the late stages of the Apollo and into into the uh into the uh uh shuttle program and I can't imagine that any government would be pushing space as rapidly and dramatically as you are and so um uh thank you for what you're doing there that's all I can say uh absolutely well I mean the the goal of SpaceX is is it's just a a much bigger goal than any any government program which is to um uh rockets and spacecraft that are capable of making life multiplanetary so you know I mean step one is actually having that as a goal if you don't have that as a goal you're definitely not going achieve it um

if you have it as a goal well now at least you have a chance of achieving it um and this the thing about Starship is it is it is the the first rocket where uh making life multiplanetary and you have building a self-sustaining City on Mars is uh is at least possible um uh it's still obviously an immense amount of work but but it is the first rocket word um that is success of in making like multi plator is at least one of the possible outcomes yeah um I'm wondering if you're willing to venture a guess on when you'll be on the moon I think pretty soon um I'd be surprised if it's if it's longer than about 3 years uh to be landing Starships on the moon um and uh because the rate progression of Starship is very rapid um you know we're hoping to do at least

uh another maybe five or six flights this year and with each successive flight making significant improvements uh so I think we got a decent shot of achieving um full reusability of both stages uh the booster and the ship uh this year um and if not this year I think you know knock on with it's like I think it's a very high probability of achieving full reusability uh next year which um really is the fundamental breakthrough needed to make life multiplanetary um yeah for for those that that that that don't don't know the rocket industry that that well that they may not be aware that that that this is really the Holy Grail of rocketry is is full full and Rapid reusability um because at that point you're uh you're really just constrained by your um propellant

costs and Starship you know almost 80% of pallet is liquid oxygen which is very low cost um and then the fuel is met there sort of a little over 20% fuel which is methane was the lowest cost fuel so if you have um full rapid reability uh then um your actual cost per flight of Starship uh even though it's it'll be capable of um we think ultimately 200 tons to uh to orbit uh will be maybe the FL say you miss say 200,000 you said the the the price of the fuel you said for Starship flight would be how much yeah the the the I mean if Most states are um reusable and with without a refurbishment then you or without you know you'd have scheduled maintenance just like a an aircraft but uh with with if if you get to full reusability where there's no um no work

required between fights then you you you you then um the cost you know is really uh you the cost of repellent is maybe a million dollars or less per flight um so then it's U number of flights magude better than any vehicle anybody listen I'm so grateful thank you for your time today thank you for not taking my advice when I tried to get you to uh fund the original X prise instead of starting SpaceX and uh and you know everybody here in the room has a we call a massive transformative purpose in a moonshot and it's uh we're living in a day where people can make a you know to use Steve's word Steve Jobs words the dent in the universe and nobody's making a bigger Dent than you um thank you thank you for everything let's give it up for Elon [Music] Musk